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  • Author: Daniel Shoag, Stan Veuger
  • Publication Date: 07-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: We report three findings. First, using evidence from chain bankruptcies and data on 12 million to 18 million establishments per year, we show that large retailers produce significant positive spillovers. Second, local governments respond to the size of these externalities. When a town’s boundaries allow it to capture a larger share of retail spillovers, it is more likely to offer retail subsidies. Third, these subsidies partially crowd out private sector mechanisms that also subsidize large retailers, such as shopping malls. These facts provide powerful evidence of the Coase theorem at work and highlight a concern for local development policies even when externalities can be targeted.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: America
  • Publication Date: 04-2015
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: <p>Brazil's economic malaise and corruption scandals present significant challenges to President Dilma Rousseff's ability to govern, just four months into her second four year term. Latin America's largest economy is rediscovering that stimulating growth and creating jobs requires controlling government spending, increasing trade, and attracting investment by adopting a host of free market reforms. The United States and Brazil should jump start efforts to improve their commercial and diplomatic relations to bolster economic development in a region crucial to both countries.</p>
  • Publication Date: 04-2015
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: <p>In US education, with all its rich human dynamics, what matters is not whether a reform is attempted, but rather how it is executed. The states, given their sufficient control over schools and colleges and their proximity to their communities, are in a far better position than the federal government to effectively execute policies. Although many education reform efforts have fallen flat over the years, there are promising initiatives on the horizon that state leaders would be well-advised to pursue. Governors and legislators are right to look for strategies that can provide the highest-quality education to the largest number of students. In pre-K, state leaders have a rare opportunity to build a system from the ground up; in K-12, they have the chance to remove barriers to give more freedom to teachers and parents; and in higher education, they have the opportunity to look beyond the existing system to create new, more affordable postsecondary options that allow more flexibility for students and innovation for course providers.</p>
  • Publication Date: 04-2015
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: <p>One of the recommendations of the 9-11 Commission was that Congress focus on the danger of weapons of mass destruction proliferating to terrorist groups. So in 2007 Congress created a Commission to study the danger and report on measures that could be taken to minimize it. I was asked to co-chair the Commission with Senator Bob Graham of Florida. There were a total of nine members on our bi-partisan Commission. Shortly after our Commission was formed, we met with Senator Harry Reid at his request. Senator Reid explained his interest in the subject of our work, and encouraged us to highlight clearly those aspects of the WMD terrorism threat which we believed were the most significant; he urged us in the strongest terms to tell us what we thought Congress most needed to know about the danger. We did so in a Report released at the end of 2008 called "World at Risk."</p>
  • Publication Date: 04-2015
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: <p>China's proposed counterterrorism law, which applies to all information technology (IT) companies operating in China, and US "legal-intercept" regulations, which govern all IT companies operating in the United States, are officially acknowledged frameworks to counter terrorist and criminal behavior. Despite the similarities in these regulations, President Obama has criticized China's law. The US must prepare to see practices that it has already adopted become prevalent elsewhere or be ready to modify US surveillance behaviors that US authorities do not want to see spreading around the globe.</p>
  • Publication Date: 04-2015
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: <p>Many adults without a college degree aspire to some higher credential, but most overestimate the cost of higher education, which could deter them from furthering their education. Many adults without a degree in our survey were uncertain as to the wage returns to different postsecondary pathways. Those who did offer estimates tend to see the bachelor's degree as the most valuable credential and certificates as the least valuable. Adults without a postsecondary degree do not always see the value in returning to school, and efforts to encourage education and training should clarify the benefits to various postsecondary pathways.</p>
  • Publication Date: 04-2015
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: <p>In April of 2015, AEIs Claude Barfield authored a preliminary paper entitled The Political Economy OF TTIP: The View from the United States. The paper was presented at UC Berkeleys conference, The Political Economy of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP): Origins, Evolution, and Implications, with the aim of providing a set of hypotheses regarding the immediate US trade agenda. The paper raises more questions than it answers, at a time when it is particularly challenging to render judgment on this agenda./p
  • Publication Date: 04-2015
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: <p>Malicious Iranian cyber activity has increased significantly since the beginning of 2014. Data collected by AEI and the Norse Corporation indicate that attacks launched from Iranian Internet protocol (IP) addresses increased 128 percent between January 1, 2014, and mid-March 2015. The number of Norse sensors hit by Iranian IPs rose by 229 percent, while the number of distinct IPs used to execute these attacks rose by 508 percent. Iranian companies are renting and buying IT resources in the West, despite sanctions. Hundreds of thousands of domains registered to Iranian people or companies are hosted by companies in the US, Canada, and Europe as a result of Western failures to enforce IT sanctions and regulations governing technology transfers. Some of these resources are then used to conduct cyberattacks on America and its allies. The Islamic Republic is using networks within Iran to conduct sophisticated cyberattacks. Investigations have uncovered efforts launched by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Sharif University of Technology to infiltrate US systems. The technical nature of the attacks makes it more likely that Iran's cyber capabilities are expanding and could pose a risk to US critical infrastructure.</p>
  • Publication Date: 04-2015
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: <p>For many years, we have reviewed polls about leading political figures, including Hillary Clinton. For this AEI Public Opinion Study, we have examined almost 5,000 questions asked about her and compiled views on Clinton as a first lady, senator, presidential candidate, and secretary of state. Polling data on Hillary Clinton include several long trends, including ratings of her favorability. The first such questions about her were asked in early 1992, when many people knew little about her. In Gallups trend, her favorable rating hit 51 percent in July 1992 after the Democratic convention. Gallup noted that the campaigns effort to improve her image had paid off. She did not receive a post-election bounce as Bill Clinton did, and Gallup reported that her favorable ratings had dipped slightly. Gallup noted that 26 percent of both men and women said they were worried that she would play too large a role in the administration. Forty percent in a November 1992 poll said she came closer to their own views than previous First Ladies, but 40 percent said she did not. Her marks went down in the 1994 to1996 period, hitting an all-time low of 43 percent in January 1996 (Gallup). During her Senate tenure, her national favorable ratings ranged from a low of 43 percent to a high of 58 percent. Her national favorable ratings when she served as Secretary of State were consistently high, though they have declined slightly since she resigned from office. Without a doubt, questions specific to the issues in the presidential race will emerge in the polling data as the race to 2016 heats up, and Americans views of Hillary Clinton will evolve as the presidential election season progresses. See the latest public opinion data on her in AEIs infographic and Public Opinion Study, Public Opinion on Hillary Clinton, 1992-2015./p
  • Publication Date: 03-2015
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: <p>Do Americans feel less threatened by terrorism now than they did when President Obama took office? The April issue of AEI's Political Report compares public opinion on the George W. Bush and Obama administrations' handling of terrorism, assesses how much terrorism concerns Americans, and assesses Americans' opinions on how the United States should respond to the threat of ISIS. This issue also examines public opinion on taxes, and where slight shifts have begun to emerge in the polls.</p> <p>/p p/p
  • Publication Date: 03-2015
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: <p>Chairman Johnson, Senator Carper, and Members of the Committee, thank you for inviting me to appear here today to discuss unauthorized immigration to the United States and guest worker programs. In the testimony that follows, I will first discuss why people become unauthorized immigrants. I will then discuss what we know about unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. labor market. At the end, I will discuss how future guest worker programs can affect immigration flows and the U.S. economy.</p>
  • Publication Date: 02-2015
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: <p>The States of Change: Demographics and Democracy project is a collaboration supported by The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation that brings together the Center for American Progress, the American Enterprise Institute, and demographer William H. Frey of the Brookings Institution. The projects goals are: To document and analyze the challenges to democracy posed by the rapid demographic evolution from the 1970s to 2060 To project the race-ethnic composition of every state to 2060, which has not been done for 20 years To promote a wide-ranging and bipartisan discussion of Americas demographic future and what it portends for the nations political parties and policy This report presents the first tranche of findings from this projectincluding detailed analyses on the nation as a whole and on every statewhich we hope will both inform and provoke discussion. We outline 10 broad trends from our findings that together suggest the scale of the transformation our country is living through and the scope of the challenges it will face in the future. These changes admit to a wide variety of interpretations, and as with any report as extensive as this one, it should not be surprising that there are some differences in interpretation among the participating institutions. We believe, however, that differing interpretations are to be welcomed and that they will be useful in stimulating discussion both within and outside our project on the implications of demographic change./p
  • Publication Date: 02-2015
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: <p>In the 42 years since the Supreme Court decided Roe v. Wade (1973), pollsters have asked hundreds of questions about abortion. This AEI Special Poll Report, excerpted from our long AEI Public Opinion Study Attitudes About Abortion, covers some of the highlights.</p>
  • Publication Date: 02-2015
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: <p>Testimony of Thomas Donnelly, Co-Director, Marilyn Ware Center for Security Studies, American Enterprise Institute</p>
  • Author: Katherine Zimmerman
  • Publication Date: 02-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Yemen is at a pivotal moment today, three years after the outbreak of popular protests, and the future of America's strategy against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is on the line. Yemen is in the midst of a political transition process that will eventually reform and decentralize the government. But the success of the effort is by no means assured. The reforms will not, in any case, address the deteriorating socioeconomic conditions that provide fertile ground for al Qaeda. Moreover, the central state, never fully able to exercise its sovereignty throughout the country, is weaker than it was before 2011. Opposition groups, which have turned to violence in the past, may still seek to form independent states of their own, potentially collapsing the fragile Yemeni state structure entirely. American interests are bound up in this process by the fact that AQAP is among the most virulent al Qaeda affiliates that poses a direct threat to the U.S. homeland. Syria, Iran, and other foreign and domestic policy issues are distracting the United States and its regional partners from sustained engagement in Yemen. Without international support, the country is much less likely to ride this transition process smoothly and our security interests will be severely harmed.
  • Topic: Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, Governance
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East, Yemen, Arabia
  • Author: Derek M. Scissors
  • Publication Date: 02-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Reactions to the Chinese Communist Party's announcement of major economic reforms in November have ranged from unbridled optimism to skepticism about the party's ability to implement sweeping change. In fact, the reforms themselves are flawed in multiple ways-most are inauthentic, uncredible, or nonviable. However, the areas of land and finance offer more limited prospects for true reform. The primary means of judging reform progress should be progress in reducing excess capacity. The most likely outcome is that the party will claim success but the economy will slowly stagnate, harming China's partners.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Reform
  • Political Geography: China, East Asia
  • Author: Danielle Pletka, Frederick W. Kagan, J. Matthew McInnis
  • Publication Date: 02-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: A review of the soft-power strategies of both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Middle East and Afghanistan makes clear a disturbing fact: Tehran has a coherent, if sometimes ineffective strategy to advance its aims in the Middle East and around the world. The United States does not. This project began with two tour d'horizon reviews of Iranian activities throughout areas Iran has, by its actions, defined as its sphere of influence. From the Persian Gulf through the Levant and into neighboring Afghanistan, the Islamic Republic has consistently invested in soft- and hard-power activities designed not only to extend its own influence but also to limit both American and hostile Arab aims. And while the latter part of the Ahmadinejad administration saw waning rewards for Tehran's efforts-a result more of the growing Sunni-Shia divide in the Middle East than of changes in strategy-the continued existence of a coherent Iranian strategy to dominate or destabilize the region should not be ignored. This report, the culmination of a process of both examining Iranian actions and surveying American policy, policy responses, and soft-power strategies in the region, focuses on the US side of the equation. Despite the Obama administration's commitment to replace hard power with smart power, what the United States pursues in the Middle East is a set of incoherent, ineffective, and increasingly irrelevant policies.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Islam, Bilateral Relations
  • Political Geography: Iran, Central Asia, Middle East
  • Author: Michael Rubin, Ahmad Khalid Majidyar
  • Publication Date: 07-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Shi'ism has a public relations problem, at least, in the United States. Most Americans formed their perception of Shi'ism not by reading its rich internal debates or exploring its diversity and cultural heritage, but rather by seeing Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini lead chants of "Death to America" after the 1979 Iranian revolution and Iranian hostage takers scaling embassy walls and then parading blindfolded, abused diplomats on television. Less than four years later, Shi'ite operatives in Lebanon rammed a truck bomb into the headquarters of US Marines serving as peacekeepers in Beirut, killing 241 in an incident that propelled suicide terrorism to the forefront of the American conscience.
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Middle East
  • Author: Frederick W. Kagan
  • Publication Date: 07-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Iran's national security decision-making process is not remotely as opaque as it sometimes appears. The recent crisis in Iraq and the nuclear negotiations in Geneva have opened a fascinating window into the efforts of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to bring rival groups within his government together behind a single set of policies. He appears to have been remarkably successful in mediating tensions between President Hassan Rouhani and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps senior leaders. They have come together, at least for the moment, behind a coherent set of strategies for dealing with a number of thorny problems in Iraq, the nuclear negotiations, and even economic reforms. It remains to be seen if these accommodations will survive the current crisis, of course, but the success of Khamenei's efforts so far is impressive.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Governance, Nuclear Power
  • Political Geography: Iran
  • Author: Mary Habeck
  • Publication Date: 04-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Current national security policy is failing to stop the advancement of al Qaeda and its affiliates throughout the Muslim-majority world. While there are many reasons for this failure, three key issues stand out: a poor definition of the enemy, an incorrect view of its objectives, and the adoption of a strategy that will not defeat the latest evolution of this adaptive organization. If the US understood al Qaeda as it is: the leadership and field army of an insurgency with worldwide linkages that hopes to impose its extremist version of shari'a , govern territory, and overthrow the leaders of every Muslim- majority country, the current national strategy for combating al Qaeda would not be confined to counter - terrorism and attrition, but would instead make counterinsurgency-without large numbers of American ground forces-its main technique for confronting and defeating the organization.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Islam, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counterinsurgency
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Author: Leon Aron
  • Publication Date: 05-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Vladimir Putin is exploiting the Ukrainian revolution-specifically, by manufacturing "crises" in Crimea and eastern Ukraine and nationalist euphoria and anti-Western paranoia at home-to fashion a more repressive and increasingly unpredictable Russian dictatorship for life. With the Russian economy heading for recession, the Putin regime's popularity largely depends on Russia's foreign policy successes, which Putin hopes to achieve by humiliating, destabilizing, and eventually derailing Ukraine; by cajoling the West into rejecting sanctions against Russia; and by fueling Russian patriotism. The West should, in an effort spearheaded by the United States, aim its sanctions at increasing the costs of the regime's malignant transformation rather than simply attempting to dissuade Moscow from further action in eastern Ukraine.
  • Topic: International Law, Sovereignty, Territorial Disputes, Governance
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Ukraine
  • Author: Roger F. Noriega, José R. Cárdenas
  • Publication Date: 07-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: The recent influx of illegal Central American immigrants (including a surge of unaccompanied minors) into the United States stems in part from violent, sophisticated drug trafficking operations in those nations and governments that are either unwilling or unprepared to confront organized crime. These operations are not only driving many more immigrants to the United States but also threatening US national security. Investing additional money in fences and border patrol agents alone will not solve US illegal immigration problems. Short-term steps for the US should include thwarting human smuggling, addressing human rights and refugee concerns before people abandon their countries, and mobilizing international cooperation and funding. To address immigration and security problems in the long term, a US-led multinational initiative is needed to better equip Central American governments to confront criminal organizations and drug trafficking and to hold corrupt officials accountable.
  • Topic: Narcotics Trafficking, Immigration, Border Control, Reform
  • Political Geography: Central America
  • Author: Derek M. Scissors
  • Publication Date: 07-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Chinese foreign investment declined through mid-2014 for the first time since the financial crisis. By sector, energy draws the most investment, but a slump in energy spending means that metals and real estate have been more prominent so far in 2014. The United States has received the most Chinese investment since 2005, followed by Australia, Canada, and Brazil. China invests first in large, resource-rich nations but has also diversified by spending more than $200 billion elsewhere. Chinese investment benefits both China and the recipient nation, but host countries must consider thorny issues like Chinese cyberespionage and subsidies.
  • Topic: Economics, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Terrorism, Foreign Direct Investment
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Canada, Asia, Brazil, Australia
  • Author: J. Bruce Jacobs
  • Publication Date: 06-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: China has recently attempted to use military force to back up alleged historical claims to the South China Sea and East China Sea; however, upon closer examination, the claims do not hold up. China's belligerent attempts to enforce its claims in the South and East China Seas endanger peace in Asia. China appears unlikely to accept any reasonable proposals that respect history and geography. Southeast Asian nations and other interested countries, like the United States and Australia, must maintain a military presence to deter Chinese aggression while attempting to negotiate a peaceful settlement with China.
  • Topic: International Law, Sovereignty, History, Territorial Disputes, Governance
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Asia, Australia, East China, South China
  • Author: Jon Kyl, Jim Talent
  • Publication Date: 10-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: When President Obama took office, the armed services of the United States had already reached a fragile state. The Navy had shrunk to its smallest size since before World War I; the Air Force was smaller, and its aircraft older, than at any time since the inception of the service. The Army was stressed by years of war; according to Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, it had been underfunded before the invasion of Iraq and was desperately in need of resources to replace its capital inventory.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Economics, Politics, War
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq
  • Author: John L. Kokulis
  • Publication Date: 10-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: The rise in military health care spending has been a primary driver of the large growth in military personnel compensation over the past decade. Left unchecked, these costs will impact the ability of the DoD's Military Health System (MHS) to support its three critical missions: 1. Readiness for deployment: Maintaining an agile, fully deployable medical force and a health care delivery system so they are capable of providing state-of-the-art health services anytime, anywhere; 2. Readiness of the fighting force: Helping commanders create and sustain the most healthy and medically prepared fighting forces anywhere; and 3. The benefits mission: Providing long-term health coaching and health care for 9.7 million DoD beneficiaries.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Economics, Health, Governance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Aparna Mathur, Sadanand Dhume, Julissa Milligan, Hemal Shah
  • Publication Date: 10-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Two decades after the end of the Cold War, US–India relations stand at a crossroads. Not so long ago, many in Washington viewed the signing of the historic US–India civil nuclear deal as the advent of a dynamic partnership with the potential to transform Asia and the world. Today US–India ties are just as often characterized as unrealistic or oversold.
  • Topic: Democratization, Development, Diplomacy, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations
  • Political Geography: United States, South Asia, Washington, India
  • Author: Katherine Zimmerman
  • Publication Date: 09-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: The failure to define al Qaeda properly has confused American policy and strategy. The enemy was not just the man shot dead on May 2, 2011, in Abbottabad, Pakistan, nor is it the 1.5 billion Muslims for whom Osama bin Laden claimed to speak.
  • Topic: Political Violence, Defense Policy, Islam, Terrorism, War, Armed Struggle, Counterinsurgency
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, America
  • Author: Cheryl Miller
  • Publication Date: 05-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: The military-civilian disconnect has been a source of increasing concern over the last few decades. National security leaders—including the commander in chief, President Barack Obama—have warned that many Americans are unaware of the military's sacrifices and its growing sense of isolation from wider society. In remarks at Duke University in September 2010, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates identified this issue as the “narrow sliver” problem, reflecting on both the achievements of America's all-volunteer force and the challenges it now faces.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Education, Terrorism, War
  • Political Geography: New York, America
  • Author: Nicholas Eberstadt
  • Publication Date: 04-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: As the leadership of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (hereafter DPRK, or North Korea) looks to the future, economic development figures centrally in its officially proclaimed agenda. This year, as it has done every year over the past decade, the government's joint New Year editorial stressed the imperative of economic construction, broadly outlining the sorts of improvements that are to be achieved over the remainder of the current calendar year, and intoned that "The present grand onward march for the improvement of the people's standard of living demands that a full-scale offensive be launched in the overall economic front." But economic growth and development has just taken on a whole new importance in North Korean policy, one that extends beyond rhetoric: this past January, for the first time in over two decades, Pyongyang has formally unveiled a new multi-year economic plan: a 10-year "strategy plan for economic development" under a newly formed State General Bureau for Economic Development. The new economic plan is intended not only to meet the DPRK's longstanding objective of becoming a "powerful and prosperous country" [Kangsong Taeguk] by 2012 (the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung), but also to promote North Korea to the ranks of the "advanced countries in 2020."
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Israel, South Korea, North Korea
  • Author: Nicholas Eberstadt
  • Publication Date: 02-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: This paper examines global demographic prospects to the year 2030 and assesses the influence that impending population trends may have upon economic performance in coming years for the world as a whole and the major regional economies. A reasonably reliable assessment of prospective global trends to 2030 is feasible today because the overwhelming majority of people who will be living in that future world are already here, alive today. This includes all of that future world's senior citizens and almost its entire workforce. Major changes in global population trends are in the offing--among these, a sharp slowdown in the growth of available manpower, with impending declines of manpower for some regions, and pervasive population aging. Furthermore, in many of today's important "emerging markets" demographic pressures may constrain economic growth more significantly than is currently appreciated. Coping with these looming demographic realities will require far-reaching reforms and innovations if we hope to maintain the pre-crisis tempo of global economic growth (much less accelerate it).
  • Topic: Demographics, Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Poverty
  • Author: Charlie Szrom, Chris Harnisch
  • Publication Date: 03-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: The environment in which an al Qaeda affiliate operates is one of the most important factors in assessing the threat it poses to US interests. Defeating the militant Islamist network led by al Qaeda requires a nuanced strategy that supports the appropriate combination and prioritization of policies and approaches for each environment in which an al Qaeda affiliate or franchise operates. The US government has not articulated such a strategy, a deficiency that acquires urgency because terrorist groups based abroad have been linked to three attacks against the American homeland in the past year. Building a strategy to oppose the al Qaeda network requires detailed understanding of its different operating environments, the ties between its various parts, and how territory affects its vitality. A comprehensive strategy should deny the al Qaeda network access to operating environments from which it can pose a major threat to the United States and the West.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Counterinsurgency
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Author: Roger Bate
  • Publication Date: 02-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Increasing competition generally decreases product prices. But in the case of pharmaceuticals, this is only beneficial if competitor products are therapeutically equivalent (bioequivalent). One measure of quality control is a consistently made product, examined in detail in this paper. A comprehensive study of drug samples in African and Asian countries--assessed for variability by spectrometer--suggests that registered products perform notably better than unregistered products. As all of the sampled drugs are used to treat potentially lethal infections, this product variability (particularly of unregistered drugs) could prove detrimental to public health. Future analysis will assess how significant these spectral differences are in terms of drug quality and hence how important changes in policy should be to limit quality variability.
  • Topic: Emerging Markets, Health, Human Welfare, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Africa, China, Asia
  • Author: Frederick W. Kagan, Kimberly Kagan
  • Publication Date: 01-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Success in Afghanistan is the establishment of a political order, security situation, and indigenous security force that is stable, viable, enduring, and able—with greatly reduced international support—to prevent Afghanistan from being a safe haven for international terrorists. The current American and Coalition strategy is making progress and should be continued. Since President Obama, NATO allies, and the Afghans have agreed that troops will be present in Afghanistan through 2014, the policy does not require substantial modifications at this point. This paper is thus primarily a report on the current situation in Afghanistan and a consideration of some of the prospects and challenges ahead. Our principal recommendation is that the U.S. and its allies should continue to resource and sustain the strategy now being executed, which is the only approach that can secure their vital national security interests in Afghanistan.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, War
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, America
  • Author: Apoorva Shah
  • Publication Date: 09-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: In a country where two out of five citizens, about 450 million people, live in poverty, it is no exaggeration to say that the development experience of Kerala – a coastal state on the southwestern tip of India – stands out as extraordinary. Despite a history of anemic economic growth, this state of 32 million boasts effectively universal literacy rates and life expectancy levels close to many Western societies. Because of this, the “Kerala model” has been hailed by NGOs, development experts, and Western academics as an alternative path for human development in which a robust welfare system rather than economic growth drives social progress.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Poverty
  • Political Geography: South Asia, India, Kerala
  • Author: James W. Ceaser
  • Publication Date: 01-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: What in the writings of Alexis de Tocqueville could conceivably be thought to offer any guidance for the study of contemporary China? Tocqueville was born early in the nineteenth century (1805) at a time when China lay in near total isolation from Europe. Matters changed during Tocqueville's lifetime with the so-called Opium War (1839–41), in which China suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of Great Britain. This reversal helped set in motion a series of events that led to the destabilization of the Manchu (or Qing) dynasty, which eventually fell in 1911. Tocqueville commented in his personal notes on a few of the early occurrences in this sequence, but he never undertook an extensive analysis of developments in the Far East. His focus in his published works was on the West, or what he often called “the Christian world.”
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Markets, Religion
  • Political Geography: Britain, United States, China, Europe
  • Author: Robert Klitgaard
  • Publication Date: 03-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: In the aftermath of the disastrous earthquake of January 12, 2010, Haiti will receive unprecedented aid for reconstruction and for its promising economic strategy. But given the country's legacy of corruption, massive aid could simply result in another massive Haitian failure. Success hinges on facing corruption squarely and developing a hard-headed, politically sensitive anticorruption strategy. How this could be done, given Haiti's realities and lessons from fighting corruption around the world, is the subject of this paper.
  • Topic: Corruption, Development, Foreign Aid, Governance
  • Political Geography: Caribbean, Haiti
  • Author: Neena Shenai
  • Publication Date: 02-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: This paper proposes reforms to the legal framework of the U.S. export control system. By examining the existing legal structure of dual-use and defense trade controls and its shortcomings, the paper considers how other U.S. legal regimes could provide models for ongoing reform efforts being undertaken by the Obama Administration and Congress. The paper proposes certain reforms, including the institution of added administrative safeguards and limited judicial review, to improve the current system.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Thomas Donnelly, Tim Sullivan
  • Publication Date: 02-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: The 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review Report (QDR) and the Fiscal Year 2011 defense budget proposal reveal a critical contradiction at the heart of the Obama Administration's national security policy. As the second sentence of the QDR states, "first and foremost, the United States is a nation at war." But the remainder of the report and, more importantly, the long-term budget, reflect an administration more interested in ending wars than winning them, and prepared to defer the modernization of the military resources necessary to maintain American leadership in the face of emerging threats. AEI's Center for Defense Studies (CDS) has developed a presentation, narrated by CDS director Tom Donnelly, assessing the key shortfalls of the QDR and the administration's defense budget proposal.
  • Topic: Political Economy, Politics, War
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Jeffrey Mankoff
  • Publication Date: 01-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Like much of the world, Russia has been in the midst of a serious economic crisis since the late summer of 2008. Although the worst appears to be over, Russia will continue to feel its effects longer than many other industrialized countries, largely because of a rigid economy burdened with an overweening state role. The recognition that Russia faces serious long-term challenges has emboldened President Dmitry Medvedev and others to call for far-reaching economic restructuring. If successful, their economic policies could undermine the semi-authoritarian, state- capitalist model developed under Prime Minister and former president Vladimir Putin. Although concrete reforms have so far been limited, Medvedev's demands for change (seconded in some cases by Putin) have acquired increasing momentum in recent months. The speed of Russia's recovery and obstacles along the way will play a major role in determining both the success of Medvedev's call for modernization and the course of Russia's foreign policy since a quicker recovery would diminish the pressure for fundamental reform and lessen the need for caution internationally.
  • Topic: Demographics, Human Welfare, Population
  • Political Geography: Russia
  • Author: Amy E. Gadsden
  • Publication Date: 07-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Fifteen years ago, international aid agencies interested in doing development projects in China would begin their efforts with a fairly predictable series of meetings. A delegation from the organization would arrive in Beijing to meet with embassy officials, Chinese ministry officials, and the same small band of Chinese and foreign development experts who pioneered work in the late 1980s and 1990s in areas such as commercial law reform and rural development.
  • Topic: Development
  • Political Geography: China, Beijing
  • Author: Nicholas Eberstadt, Laura M. Kelley
  • Publication Date: 04-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: This paper examines the potential impact of HIV/AIDS on different levels of South African society (individual, household, and national) over time. Using differences in demographic projections to guide the analysis, the prospective implications of HIV/AIDS on households, society, economy and nation are discussed and issues that could influence or mitigate those possible impacts are examined. We outline the challenges that South Africa will likely face due to the effects of its AIDS-related excess mortality and conclude that programs delivering a broader variety of services than are currently offered are needed for South Africa to emerge a prosperous, regional power by mid-century. Inadequacies of current HIV/AIDS relief programs are broadly considered and suggestions are offered for improvement. We argue that a fundamental shift in the focus of HIV/AIDS strategies to include consideration of the needs of the survivors of this pandemic, and the world they will live in, is urgently necessary.
  • Topic: Health
  • Political Geography: Africa, South Africa
  • Author: Michael Auslin
  • Publication Date: 12-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Ensuring security in the Indo-Pacific region will be the primary foreign policy challenge for the United States and liberal nations over the next generation. Doing so successfully will provide the greatest economic and political opportunities for the next quarter century. Conversely, a failure to maintain stability, support liberal regimes, create cooperative regional relations, and uphold norms and standards of international behavior will lead to a region, and world, of greater uncertainty, insecurity, and instability. Due to its economic strength, military power, and political dynamism, the Indo-Pacific will be the world's most important region in coming decades, and its significance will be felt throughout the globe. Since the end of World War II, it has transformed itself into the world's economic powerhouse, yet has also witnessed a struggle between tides of liberalism, authoritarianism, and even totalitarianism. It remains riven by distrust, territorial disputes, ethnic tensions, and painful historical memories. The Indo-Pacific's unique geography makes the balance of regional security most vulnerable in its "commons": the open seas, air lanes, and cyber networks that link the region together and to the world.
  • Topic: Security, Development, Emerging Markets, Governance
  • Political Geography: United States, China, India, Australia/Pacific
  • Author: Tim Sullivan
  • Publication Date: 11-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: As home to a number of the world's most dynamic economies, two rising powers, and six nuclear states, Asia is a region of enormous strategic importance to the United States. For over six decades, America has functioned as the preeminent power in Asia, playing a vital role in providing security and ensuring a stable balance of power that has allowed the region's states to flourish politically and economically. The U.S. security framework in the region has rested historically upon a series of bilateral alliances and strategic partnerships. The arrangement has impressively stood the test of time despite concerns that the lack of an overarching, multilateral security architecture would lead to inefficiencies in the United States' pursuit of regional stability.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Emerging Markets, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: United States, Asia
  • Author: H. E. Frech III
  • Publication Date: 02-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: The OECD has undertaken an ambitious large-scale statistical analysis of the determinants of health and the relative efficiency of the health care systems of various OECD member countries (Jourmard, André, Nicq and Chatal 2008). The Report makes a useful contribution to a continuing stream of literature that focuses on health outcomes, rather than cost. While the primary emphasis of the Report is on new statistical analysis, it includes a valuable, though spotty, literature review.
  • Topic: Economics, Environment, Health
  • Author: Kevin A. Hassett
  • Publication Date: 03-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: This paper reviews the empirical literature on countercyclical policy. It finds that three types of countercyclical policies have been studied in the literature: built in stabilizers, temporary policy changes, and more permanent policy changes. The literature is decidedly mixed on the effectiveness of temporary changes, but more hopeful concerning the other two.
  • Topic: Debt, Economics, Markets, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Hassan Mneimneh
  • Publication Date: 05-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: September 11, 2001, marked the coming to the fore of the “jihadist international,” a loosely connected movement of militant and terrorist groups worldwide with a common ideology and increasingly shared tactics and methods. While such groups still have limited recruitment potential eight years on, they have inflicted substantial physical damage and have forced free societies to take costly precautionary measures. Perhaps most alarming, the global jihadist movement has continued simultaneously to feed off of and perpetuate the growing radicalization that Muslim culture has endured over the last few decades.
  • Topic: Islam, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East, Arabia
  • Author: Robert T. Gannett Jr.
  • Publication Date: 04-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Despite the aftershocks of a natural disaster, the economy of the region's most populous nation still manages to produce unprecedented prosperity for its citizens. Its government is omnipresent, fueling this growth by building roads, canals, and new manufacturing plants, while seeking to eradicate collective constraints of a bygone era. Individuals respond to the new economic opportunities by becoming more industrious, more inventive, more acquisitive, more bourgeois, more capitalist. In the midst of such sudden economic transformation, the government struggles to maintain political stability. When protests erupt in the countryside, it suppresses them or co-opts their leaders. In an effort to reduce political tension, it allows a measure of personal liberty and speaks frequently of the need for reforms. It recognizes the importance of public opinion, doing everything it can to cultivate, manage, and control its expanding influence, especially in times of crisis and when the nation finds itself on the world stage. It frequently remodels administrative rules and habits applying to the whole nation, issuing edicts from the center that are routinely ignored in the provinces. And to the surprise of all, it launches a new system for the whole nation of local assemblies chosen by local voters, while inviting all residents to express and address local grievances in each of even its tiniest far-flung villages.
  • Topic: Communism, Democratization
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Roger Bate, Richard Tren, Thompson Ayodele, Kimberly Hess, Olusegun Sotola
  • Publication Date: 08-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: For decades, Nigeria has been plagued by counterfeit and poor-quality medicines, yet little information exists on the extent to which healthcare personnel are aw are of counterfeit and substandard medicines, and how this influences their behavior.
  • Topic: Crime, War on Drugs, Narcotics Trafficking
  • Political Geography: Africa, Nigeria
  • Author: Dan Blumenthal, Gary J. Schmitt, Michael Mazza, Randall Schriver, Mark Stokes
  • Publication Date: 08-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Taiwan is a great success story. It is a prosperous, thriving democracy living at peace—and it wants to remain at peace. A recent poll shows that more than 90 percent of Taiwanese support maintaining the “status quo,” meaning principally that an overwhelming majority of the island's citizens wants to avoid a conflict with the mainland if at all possible while retaining their de facto sovereignty.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Peace Studies, Bilateral Relations
  • Political Geography: Israel, Taiwan, Asia