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  • Author: Nicholas Eberstadt
  • Publication Date: 02-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: This paper examines global demographic prospects to the year 2030 and assesses the influence that impending population trends may have upon economic performance in coming years for the world as a whole and the major regional economies. A reasonably reliable assessment of prospective global trends to 2030 is feasible today because the overwhelming majority of people who will be living in that future world are already here, alive today. This includes all of that future world's senior citizens and almost its entire workforce. Major changes in global population trends are in the offing--among these, a sharp slowdown in the growth of available manpower, with impending declines of manpower for some regions, and pervasive population aging. Furthermore, in many of today's important "emerging markets" demographic pressures may constrain economic growth more significantly than is currently appreciated. Coping with these looming demographic realities will require far-reaching reforms and innovations if we hope to maintain the pre-crisis tempo of global economic growth (much less accelerate it).
  • Topic: Demographics, Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Poverty
  • Author: Charlie Szrom, Chris Harnisch
  • Publication Date: 03-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: The environment in which an al Qaeda affiliate operates is one of the most important factors in assessing the threat it poses to US interests. Defeating the militant Islamist network led by al Qaeda requires a nuanced strategy that supports the appropriate combination and prioritization of policies and approaches for each environment in which an al Qaeda affiliate or franchise operates. The US government has not articulated such a strategy, a deficiency that acquires urgency because terrorist groups based abroad have been linked to three attacks against the American homeland in the past year. Building a strategy to oppose the al Qaeda network requires detailed understanding of its different operating environments, the ties between its various parts, and how territory affects its vitality. A comprehensive strategy should deny the al Qaeda network access to operating environments from which it can pose a major threat to the United States and the West.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Counterinsurgency
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Author: Roger Bate
  • Publication Date: 02-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Increasing competition generally decreases product prices. But in the case of pharmaceuticals, this is only beneficial if competitor products are therapeutically equivalent (bioequivalent). One measure of quality control is a consistently made product, examined in detail in this paper. A comprehensive study of drug samples in African and Asian countries--assessed for variability by spectrometer--suggests that registered products perform notably better than unregistered products. As all of the sampled drugs are used to treat potentially lethal infections, this product variability (particularly of unregistered drugs) could prove detrimental to public health. Future analysis will assess how significant these spectral differences are in terms of drug quality and hence how important changes in policy should be to limit quality variability.
  • Topic: Emerging Markets, Health, Human Welfare, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Africa, China, Asia
  • Author: Frederick W. Kagan, Kimberly Kagan
  • Publication Date: 01-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Success in Afghanistan is the establishment of a political order, security situation, and indigenous security force that is stable, viable, enduring, and able—with greatly reduced international support—to prevent Afghanistan from being a safe haven for international terrorists. The current American and Coalition strategy is making progress and should be continued. Since President Obama, NATO allies, and the Afghans have agreed that troops will be present in Afghanistan through 2014, the policy does not require substantial modifications at this point. This paper is thus primarily a report on the current situation in Afghanistan and a consideration of some of the prospects and challenges ahead. Our principal recommendation is that the U.S. and its allies should continue to resource and sustain the strategy now being executed, which is the only approach that can secure their vital national security interests in Afghanistan.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, War
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, America
  • Author: Apoorva Shah
  • Publication Date: 09-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: In a country where two out of five citizens, about 450 million people, live in poverty, it is no exaggeration to say that the development experience of Kerala – a coastal state on the southwestern tip of India – stands out as extraordinary. Despite a history of anemic economic growth, this state of 32 million boasts effectively universal literacy rates and life expectancy levels close to many Western societies. Because of this, the “Kerala model” has been hailed by NGOs, development experts, and Western academics as an alternative path for human development in which a robust welfare system rather than economic growth drives social progress.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Poverty
  • Political Geography: South Asia, India, Kerala
  • Author: James W. Ceaser
  • Publication Date: 01-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: What in the writings of Alexis de Tocqueville could conceivably be thought to offer any guidance for the study of contemporary China? Tocqueville was born early in the nineteenth century (1805) at a time when China lay in near total isolation from Europe. Matters changed during Tocqueville's lifetime with the so-called Opium War (1839–41), in which China suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of Great Britain. This reversal helped set in motion a series of events that led to the destabilization of the Manchu (or Qing) dynasty, which eventually fell in 1911. Tocqueville commented in his personal notes on a few of the early occurrences in this sequence, but he never undertook an extensive analysis of developments in the Far East. His focus in his published works was on the West, or what he often called “the Christian world.”
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Markets, Religion
  • Political Geography: Britain, United States, China, Europe
  • Author: Robert Klitgaard
  • Publication Date: 03-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: In the aftermath of the disastrous earthquake of January 12, 2010, Haiti will receive unprecedented aid for reconstruction and for its promising economic strategy. But given the country's legacy of corruption, massive aid could simply result in another massive Haitian failure. Success hinges on facing corruption squarely and developing a hard-headed, politically sensitive anticorruption strategy. How this could be done, given Haiti's realities and lessons from fighting corruption around the world, is the subject of this paper.
  • Topic: Corruption, Development, Foreign Aid, Governance
  • Political Geography: Caribbean, Haiti
  • Author: Neena Shenai
  • Publication Date: 02-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: This paper proposes reforms to the legal framework of the U.S. export control system. By examining the existing legal structure of dual-use and defense trade controls and its shortcomings, the paper considers how other U.S. legal regimes could provide models for ongoing reform efforts being undertaken by the Obama Administration and Congress. The paper proposes certain reforms, including the institution of added administrative safeguards and limited judicial review, to improve the current system.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Thomas Donnelly, Tim Sullivan
  • Publication Date: 02-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: The 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review Report (QDR) and the Fiscal Year 2011 defense budget proposal reveal a critical contradiction at the heart of the Obama Administration's national security policy. As the second sentence of the QDR states, "first and foremost, the United States is a nation at war." But the remainder of the report and, more importantly, the long-term budget, reflect an administration more interested in ending wars than winning them, and prepared to defer the modernization of the military resources necessary to maintain American leadership in the face of emerging threats. AEI's Center for Defense Studies (CDS) has developed a presentation, narrated by CDS director Tom Donnelly, assessing the key shortfalls of the QDR and the administration's defense budget proposal.
  • Topic: Political Economy, Politics, War
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Jeffrey Mankoff
  • Publication Date: 01-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Like much of the world, Russia has been in the midst of a serious economic crisis since the late summer of 2008. Although the worst appears to be over, Russia will continue to feel its effects longer than many other industrialized countries, largely because of a rigid economy burdened with an overweening state role. The recognition that Russia faces serious long-term challenges has emboldened President Dmitry Medvedev and others to call for far-reaching economic restructuring. If successful, their economic policies could undermine the semi-authoritarian, state- capitalist model developed under Prime Minister and former president Vladimir Putin. Although concrete reforms have so far been limited, Medvedev's demands for change (seconded in some cases by Putin) have acquired increasing momentum in recent months. The speed of Russia's recovery and obstacles along the way will play a major role in determining both the success of Medvedev's call for modernization and the course of Russia's foreign policy since a quicker recovery would diminish the pressure for fundamental reform and lessen the need for caution internationally.
  • Topic: Demographics, Human Welfare, Population
  • Political Geography: Russia