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101. Bolivia: desk study on aid and democracy

Author:
Swetha Ramachandran
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This study is part of a series of ten country-focused desk studies on aid and democracy prepared under the project The state and statebuilding in the Global South. They are prepared under the guidance of Rachel M. Gisselquist as background to a broader research effort on aid, governance, and democracy promotion. The studies follow a common template and each draws on the research literature and selected cross-national sources to discuss regime type and timeline, findings from the literature on democracy/democratization, findings from the literature on aid and democracy/democratization, aid flows and sources, and specific aid examples. This study addresses the case of Bolivia, with focus on the post-Cold War period.
Topic:
Foreign Aid, Governance, Democracy, and Post-Cold War
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

102. False promises: The authoritarian development models of China and Russia

Author:
Joseph Lemoine, Dan Negrea, Patrick Quirk, and Lauren Van Metre
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Are authoritarian regimes more successful than free countries in offering prosperity to their people? The answer is decidedly no, yet China and Russia actively advertise the “benefits” and “promise” of their authoritarian development model. Beijing and Moscow contend that their governance model—rooted in central control of political, social, and economic life—delivers for their people. The facts prove exactly the opposite and show that countries characterized by repression and concentrated control are far less successful across all metrics of human development than are free societies. That free societies are better for the people residing in them is not an ideological position; it is a statement of fact backed by substantial evidence, including, but not limited to, the Atlantic Council’s Freedom and Prosperity Indexes. This paper aims to showcase why and how the authoritarian development model is inferior to that of free societies. The first section documents democratic backsliding and the reversal of freedom’s fortunes. The second section presents data on how authoritarian regimes have failed to deliver prosperity for their people. The third section outlines how free societies have done the opposite—delivered sustained prosperity for their citizens. The final section offers the conclusion that authoritarian regimes, despite their claims, cannot deliver democratic progress or prosperity for society at large.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Diplomacy, Politics, Authoritarianism, Reform, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, and Asia

103. Requirements for nuclear deterrence and arms control in a two-nuclear-peer environment

Author:
Gregory Weaver and Amy Woolf
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
After decades of seeking to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in international relations, the United States is now grappling with a global landscape marked by intense strategic competition and the growing salience of nuclear weapons—problems that will likely persist for years to come. Over the past year, Russia compounded its aggression in Ukraine with nuclear saber-rattling, modernizing and expanding its nuclear forces over the past decade. Furthermore, Russia’s possession of a substantial inventory of theater nuclear weapons continues to threaten regional deterrence. Meanwhile, in Asia, Beijing is pursuing an unprecedented surge in its nuclear capabilities. If current trends persist, China is projected to possess about 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035.1 While China was once viewed as a secondary nuclear power, its substantial investment in its nuclear arsenal—including the launch of a third ballistic missile early-warning satellite in 2022 and advancements in land-based ballistic missiles, aircraft, submarines, and hypersonic missiles—positions China to become a near-equal nuclear power in the coming decade. These trends mark a historic shift. For the first time in its history, the United States must face two near-peer nuclear competitors simultaneously. At the same time, Russia’s suspension of its compliance with the New START agreement in 2023 has significantly weakened the last strategic arms control framework established in the Cold War and post-Cold War eras. This move leaves scant provisions governing the future of nuclear capabilities among the United States and its adversaries. For over half a century, Washington and Moscow negotiated to establish treaties that imposed limits on their nuclear arsenals, aiming to manage their nuclear rivalry and mitigate the risk of nuclear conflict. This process served the national security interests of both sides by curbing weapons and activities that could jeopardize deterrence, safeguarding strategic stability, offering insights into nuclear capacities, and potentially steering military competition toward less perilous avenues. However, shifts in the global security landscape have altered this calculus. The Russian Federation, much like the Soviet Union before it, has insisted that future agreements factor in the nuclear capabilities of Britain and France. On the other hand, the United States now confronts a security environment featuring two nuclear-armed adversaries—Russia and China—whose forces will potentially pose significant threats to the United States and its allies. This evolving security landscape may prompt the United States to reevaluate its assessments of its deterrence and arms control requirements. But how should the United States approach this problem?
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Asia, Korea, and United States of America

104. Redefining US strategy with Latin America and the Caribbean for a new era

Author:
Jason Marczak, Maria Fernanda Bozmoski, and Matthew Kroenig
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The strategic interest of the United States and the countries of Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) lies in strengthening their western hemisphere partnership. Shared borders, economic interests, and security alliances bind these nations, along with a common goal for prosperity. However, the perception of waning US interest and the rise of external influences necessitate the rejuvenation of and renewed focus on this partnership. In May 2023, the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security established the US-LAC Future Strategy Working Group to redefine the US-LAC partnership. This strategy promotes mutual and inclusive economic growth, renewed cooperation through enhanced commercial and investment ties, a renewed paradigm on bolstering security and reducing migration flows across the region, and a focus on preparedness in the face of natural disasters and the energy transition. Acting on this strategy could significantly benefit US economic and security interests. The United States should capitalize on immediate opportunities, like promoting nearshoring as a means to growth and prosperity across the Americas, while maintaining a medium-term strategy tailored to each country’s specific needs. This strategy paper highlights the importance of adaptability and practicality, particularly as the global economic landscape evolves and power shifts foresee new leading economies by mid-century. In addition, the strategy advocates for the significance of the US-LAC relationship amid the recalibration of US worldwide interests.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Migration, Politics, Economy, and Energy
Political Geography:
Latin America, Caribbean, and United States of America

105. Not without her: A roadmap for gender equality and Caribbean prosperity

Author:
Wazim Mowla and Valentina Sader
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The Caribbean is one of the most vulnerable regions globally. It harbors economies that are open-faced and import-dependent, making it susceptible to the ravages of climate change, fluctuating commodity prices, and inflationary pressures. While governments and financial institutions grapple with these perpetual stresses, it is the Caribbean citizens, particularly women and girls, who bear the heaviest burden. Nestled in this uniquely vulnerable region, women and girls face a multitude of challenges, demanding comprehensive support from both governments and financial institutions to enhance their resilience and opportunities throughout society. Their integration across various sectors, including government, business, and local organizations, emphasizes that addressing gender challenges cannot occur in isolation. The global issues looming over the Caribbean magnify the specific hurdles confronting women and girls. From gender-based violence (GBV) and economic barriers to limited political influence and the disproportionate impacts of climate change, the challenges intertwine, creating a crisis of gender inequality and inequity across the Caribbean. This publication compiles findings from a yearlong consultative effort, revealing that the challenges faced by women and girls are rooted in societal perceptions of their roles and restricted access to tools and resources. To overcome these barriers, a fundamental reshaping of social norms, alongside political and financial institutions, is imperative. Moreover, integrating women and girls into the development model aligns with the region’s broader ambitions of achieving UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), unlocking untapped human capital and fostering long-term prosperity. In collaboration with the UN Women Caribbean Multi-Country Office, the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and its Caribbean Initiative embarked on a year-long partnership. This initiative aimed to address GBV, economic empowerment challenges, limited political influence, and the disproportionate effects of climate change facing women and girls in the Caribbean. The extensive consultative process involved roundtable discussions, capacity-building sessions, and one-on-one consultations, shedding light on the preconceptions held by both men and women toward women and girls in Jamaica and Guyana during 2023. The partnership has honed in on social norms as a focal point, recognizing their impact on perceptions and discussions about the challenges faced by women and girls.
Topic:
Climate Change, Women, Inequality, Economy, Resilience, and Gender
Political Geography:
Latin America and Caribbean

106. With the 2024 Mexican election looming, here are two major recommendations for the next president

Author:
Ignacia Ulloa Peters, Martin Cassinelli, Maria Fernanda Bozmoski, and Charlene Aguilera
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Countries representing half the world’s population are voting in 2024. On June 2, just over five months before Election Day in the United States, Mexican voters will set a historic milestone with the election of the country’s first female president. Over the course of her six-year term, Mexico’s new president will face enormous challenges—internally and in the country’s relationship with the United States. But, like never before, there is also a unique opportunity to strengthen the commercial and economic ties that bind the two countries and reimagine how our shared border could better serve our shared interests. Although the United States and Mexico have long been economically intertwined, in 2023, Mexico became the United States’ most important trading partner. Now more than ever, with great geopolitical headwinds, the commercial ties that bind our two countries will be increasingly critical to advancing US economic interests globally. Here, greater border efficiency will yield economic gains alongside improvements in our shared security. The Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, in partnership with internal and external colleagues and partners, sought to envision the future of two key aspects of the US-Mexico relationship: commercial flows and investment. With extensive feedback and numerous consultations with border stakeholders, including business owners, truck drivers, port operators, civilians, and local and federal elected officials, we sought out fresh perspectives and actionable recommendations. Our goal with this report is to spark dialogue among policymakers, business leaders, and civil society in both countries on the urgent need to address the immediate challenges of border efficiency and investment attraction over the next Mexican president’s term while paving the way for a more prosperous and secure future in our countries. The Rio Grande and its surrounding towns are more than a physical barrier separating the United States and Mexico. Rather, they are a vibrant artery of commerce, migration, and cultural exchange. Livelihoods depend on our border, but inefficiencies prevent us from maximizing the possible economic opportunities and achieving the necessary security gains. The pages that follow build on previous center findings and emphasize the need for a nuanced approach to foreign investment, infrastructure development, and security measures that prioritize efficiency and our national interests. This publication also seeks to bring the human dimension to the forefront. Public policy, after all, should reflect how to improve everyday lives. We consolidate the stories of real people affected by the US-Mexico border daily. The combined stories we have gathered over the last two years remind us of the impact of policy decisions. That reminder is particularly poignant with the 2024 elections on both sides of the border. Indeed, we stand on the cusp of a new chapter in our shared history. This report is a call to action for visionary leadership and bold, pragmatic solutions to the complex issues facing the United States and Mexico. We urge policymakers to embrace policies and strategies that address immediate challenges while laying the groundwork for both an even more inclusive and prosperous future. Let’s seize this unique moment in time.
Topic:
Elections, Economy, Innovation, Trade, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, and Mexico

107. Digital services for e-government: opportunities for a future 2.5 billion African demographic market

Author:
Nii Simmonds
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In partnership with Africa Development Solutions (ADS) Group, the Africa Center released a report on “Digital services for e-government: Opportunities for a future 2.5 billion African demographic market” by Atlantic Council, GeoTech Nonresident Senior Fellow, Nii Simmonds. This report argues that e-government solutions have the potential to revolutionize service delivery across the African continent. E-government services refers to the process of providing technology-enabled public services. With Africa’s population projected to reach 2.5 billion people by 2050, nearly one-quarter of the world’s population, countries like Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Kenya, and the Democratic Republic of Congo will need to strengthen their government and infrastructure to manage the administration of critical services. As the middle class continues to expand, so will the demand for access to everyday services such as healthcare, renewing a driver’s license, and filing tax returns. This report highlights the potential for growth in African markets through e-governance and the importance having strong policies and frameworks in place to secure data. Additionally, the report offers case studies on Estonia, Canada, and India, three countries that have made tremendous commitment to bridging the gap between citizens and government through digital service delivery. With key recommendations for institutions ranging from African governments and regional bodies to DFIs and private sector companies, it is clear that each have an important role to play in the digitization of public services in Africa.
Topic:
Government, Markets, Economy, Business, and E-Government
Political Geography:
Africa

108. Intentionally vague: How Saudi Arabia and Egypt abuse legal systems to suppress online speech

Author:
Dina Sadek, Layla Mashkoor, Iain Robertson, and Andy Carvin
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Egypt and Saudi Arabia are weaponizing vaguely written domestic media, cybercrime, and counterterrorism laws to target and suppress dissent, opposition, and vulnerable groups. Political leaders in Egypt and Saudi Arabia often claim that their countries’ judicial systems enjoy independence and a lack of interference, a narrative intended to distance the states from the real and overzealous targeting and prosecution of critics. Such claims can be debunked and dismissed, as the Egyptian and Saudi governments have had direct involvement in establishing and implementing laws that are utilized to target journalists and human rights defenders. Egypt and Saudi Arabia were selected as case studies for this report because of their status as among the most frequently documented offenders in the region when it comes to exploiting ambiguously written laws to target and prosecute journalists, critics, activists, human rights defenders, and even apolitical citizens. The two countries have consolidated power domestically, permitting them to utilize and bend their domestic legal systems to exert control over the online information space. Punishments for those targeted can involve draconian prison sentences, travel bans, and fines, which result in a chilling effect that consequently stifles online speech and activities, preventing citizens from discussing political, social, and economic issues. Both Egypt and Saudi Arabia enacted media, cybercrime, and counterterrorism laws with ambiguous language and unclear definitions of legal terms, allowing for flexible interpretations of phrases such as “false information,” “morality,” or “family values and principles.” The laws in both countries also loosely define critical terms like “terrorism,” thereby facilitating expansive interpretations of what constitutes a terrorist crime. Further, anti-terror laws now include articles that connect the “dissemination of false information” with terrorist acts. This vague and elastic legal language has enabled the Egyptian and Saudi regimes to prosecute peaceful citizens on arbitrary grounds, sometimes handing out long prison sentences or even death sentences, undermining respect for the rule of law in the two countries. This report explores the development of media, cybercrime, and counterterrorism laws in both countries, and demonstrates through case studies how Saudi Arabia and Egypt weaponize the laws to prosecute opposition figures and control narratives online. This report examines the relationship between criminal charges tied to one’s professional activities or online speech and how those charges can trigger online smear campaigns and harassment. In cases that involve women, gender-based violence is often used to harm a woman’s reputation. Though a direct correlation between judicial charges and online harassment cannot be ascertained, these case studies suggest that dissidents are likely to face online harm following legal persecution, even after they are released.
Topic:
Human Rights, Internet, Freedom of Expression, Rule of Law, Disinformation, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

109. Protecting Free and Fair Elections: The Vital Role of Public Administration

Author:
Steve Hagerty, Valerie Lemmie, and Nancy Tate
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA)
Abstract:
Free and fair elections are at the heart of American democracy, and running elections is a core responsibility of public administrators in the United States. The early decades of the 21st Century have been characterized by declining public trust in our nation’s elections, unnecessary barriers to voting, foreign interference, and widespread disinformation. These issues led the National Academy of Public Administration (the Academy) to include “Protect Electoral Integrity and Enhance Voter Participation” as one of our field’s Grand Challenges in November 2019. To assist the nation with this Grand Challenge, the Academy commissioned a team to conduct a review of electoral practices that can ensure free and fair elections through effective public governance and management. The Academy team developed a shared vision of election administration and identified leading practices for consideration by elected officials and election administrators. The team concluded that effective election administration consists of 3 major pillars: Voter experience, Election security, and Election workforce. The report is offered with the greatest respect for the work that election administrators do in support of a vital part of American democracy. It has been written for a broad audience, including citizens, elected officials, and election administrators.
Topic:
Security, Elections, Voting, and Public Administration
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

110. What if…? 12 Dragon King scenarios for 2028

Author:
Florence Gaub
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
At first glance, this publication appears to be a collection of Early Warning essays – they are, to some extent, but they should not be exclusively read as such. Conventional Early Warning systems have a much shorter time horizon – normally hours, perhaps months at most – than these scenarios, and they are solely mitigation mechanisms, that is to say they provide no insight into how the event they are warning of can be avoided. They are thus not an intellectual thought exercise, but solely an alarm bell. Our Dragon Kings in this volume provide insight into how they can be avoided, but they also challenge our assumptions in more ways than one. They are therefore awareness-raisers no matter how credible or plausible you will find them. Just reading them will have a readiness-increasing effect. (In fact, the more absurd you find them, the more pronounced this is because your mind will learn more when the emotion they generate is greater.) These scenarios can become even more useful, however, if you use them for simulation exercises in a team. You can use them as a blueprint for a wider scenario exercise, whether one wishes to adopt a blue or red team approach to them, and ask questions such as: how could this have been prevented, what would have to be done? What are alternative pathways of this scenario that are even worse, and how can we prevent those? The most important aspect is that every exercise of this kind must lead to some concrete policy steps. Merely thinking about improbable futures is never enough – doing something about them is what makes them a useful policy-tool. In that case, they lead to active, rather than passive, engagement with the content, foster collaboration, encourage innovation, practice decision-making, provide a space for failure and experimentation with alternative courses of action. It is precisely because of this that scenarios are a common feature in military education, but they work just as well in any other strategic context – provided, time and space is made for it. If yes, they contribute to increasing preparedness and readiness, and accelerate the response time to surprise. What’s more, generally engaging in fringe thinking about the future will strengthen these capabilities no matter what kind of surprise eventually occurs. Much like how vaccines teach the immune system, disruptive thinking strengthens our neural networks, making us more resilient for extreme situations.
Topic:
NATO, Natural Disasters, Elections, Crisis Management, Coup, UN Security Council, Biological Weapons, Resilience, Arctic Council, and Readiness
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Iraq, Europe, India, Taiwan, Latin America, Nigeria, and Tunisia

111. The history of China’s future Lessons from the CIA

Author:
Dylan Levi King
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Predictions about China’s future made in the years since the Communist Party took power in 1949 have routinely cycled between two extremes of improbability: imminent collapse and indomitable ascent. These cycles came more slowly in the age before cable news and social media. The idea of the capture of the People’s Republic of China by Republic of China forces, or of the country tearing itself apart with political violence, held for years, before being wiped out by a popular impression of China’s meteoric rise and future economic domination.1 These cycles have now become supercharged for the attention economy. As one wave of forecasts of unstoppable lift-off and financial supremacy breaks, it is chased immediately by predictions of terminal economic dysfunction and social disintegration. For the expert, in danger of having their voice drowned out by amateur forecasters, it is difficult to inject the necessary rigour and nuance. For the layperson, it is hard to make any sense of the incessant deluge of contradictory and often extreme predictions. To wade into the forecast cycle is to risk being swept off one’s feet. To step away, and to simply avoid making any predictions is tempting, but it would be a grave error, given China’s economic gravity, immense population, status as a superpower and potential rival of NATO and allied countries. To get the future of the country wrong is to get the future of the planet wrong.
Topic:
History, Forecast, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and Readiness
Political Geography:
China and Asia

112. Fly me to the moon: Why Europe needs to move into space

Author:
Samantha Cristoforetti and Alessandro Marrone
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Outer space is experiencing a paradigm shift from exploration to exploitation, whereby orbits become more congested and contested than ever. NATO militaries are adapting not only to integrate space in military operations on Earth but also to operate in this domain. U.S. is leading the spacepower doctrinal evolution, while Europe holds important space capabilities but lags behind in certain key areas. Human space transportation is the new frontier that Europeans should address through civil-military cooperation.
Topic:
NATO, Space, Civil-Military Relations, and Military
Political Geography:
Europe and Space

113. How to write a strategy

Author:
Christopher M. Schnaubelt
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Writing a strategy is difficult because the purpose is to change the behavior of humans. The most common context for strategy is in the sphere of military activities: how to apply force in a manner that breaks the will of an enemy, causing that enemy to stop fighting. However, strategy can also be useful at less intense levels of conflict such as crisis management and stability operations. Indeed, strategy can be used for peaceful but competitive purposes such as government tax policy or corporate marketing of consumer products. This paper expresses strategy as a formula: Strategy = Ends + Ways + Means + Risk wherein Ends are the objectives or the “what” the strategy intends to accomplish; Ways are the strategic concepts/courses of action or the “how” that describes the methods of applying the means to attain the ends; and Means are the resources. Risk is the degree to which the Ends exceed the Ways + Means. The following steps should be used to write a strategy. They may be performed in a different order. In most cases, some of the steps will be repeated during the development process: • Estimate the development timeline: determine the deadlines for writing the strategy. • Develop understanding: gather information and relate it to conditions and actors. • Frame the problem( s) and opportunities: determine what is the question or problem to be solved. Questions should address internal context for the strategy development process as well as the external problem context. • Draft proposed ends: envision what is to be accomplished. • Determine the ways and means: compare the contemporary problem frame with the vision of what should be achieved, ascertain the set of resources that are currently available (or can reasonably be made available within the necessary time frame), and identify how these resources can be applied to produce the desired end state. • Consider risk: assess whether the ends, ways, and means are in sustainable balance. The degree to which the perceived cost of Ways + Means exceeds the perceived value of the Ends is Risk. • Reframe the problem: consider the likely evolution of the situation in light of proposed actions. • Finalize the statement of Ends, Means, and Ways: write the strategy using the steps in this list as an outline. • Monitor strategy implementation and effect; revise as necessary: assess whether the strategy is being properly implemented, is producing the expected effects, and progressing adequately towards the desired ends. If not, revise the strategy or the plans and/or activities that implement the strategy.
Topic:
NATO, Military Affairs, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

114. Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee* How Allies adapt to drones

Author:
Brian R. Miletich
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Drone proliferation and technological advancements in contemporary confl ict represent an evolutionary trend. Despite the growing scope and scale as a combat multiplier, drones have not yet changed the character of war. Drones are part of a broader evolutionary trend in military technology for three reasons: drones fail to achieve decisive eff ects on the battlefi eld, are vulnerable to basic adaption, and do not profoundly change existing military doctrine. The article recommends three policy provisions within NATO’s strategic construct that will help NATO meet the challenges proposed by drones. While technology alone is often insuffi cient to generate a Revolution in Military Aff airs (RMA), a new warfi ghting approach such as Multi Domain Operations (MDO) must be implemented to seize the opportunities presented by drones.
Topic:
NATO, Military Affairs, Weapons, and Drones
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

115. The new NATO Force Model: ready for launch?

Author:
John R. Deni
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
NATO Allies are in the process of a dramatic change to the Alliance’s force structure, which will see the NATO Response Force (NRF) replaced with a threetiered structure of Allied forces, to include an Allied Reaction Force (ARF), all of which is designed to better defend and deter. This new NATO Force Model faces a variety of challenges, from whether Allies will have suffi cient forces at appropriate readiness levels to fulfi l their own objectives to whether SACEUR will still have the authority to “alert, stage and prepare” Allied forces as a crisis emerges, through whether and how the Alliance’s command structure now needs a re-examination as well. To avoid the potential pitfalls and ensure the Alliance fulfi ls its own vision, NATO and its member nations ought to consider an array of mitigating steps, such as using snap exercises and inspection visits to ensure forces are indeed manned, trained and equipped, and emphasizing mass and capacity in Allied acquisition plans and capability targets.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Alliance, and Force Model
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

116. NATO and a Taiwan contingency

Author:
James Lee
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
This paper Discusses the conditions under which a Taiwan contingency could trigger Article 5. Explains how individual NATO countries already play a role in Taiwan’s security. Outlines scenarios under which individual NATO countries could become directly involved in a Taiwan contingency.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

117. NATO 2099: The science fiction anthology

Author:
Florence Gaub
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
N ATO is a fundamentally future-oriented organization: the entire North Atlantic Treaty is written in the future tense. The word “will” appears ten times, the word “shall” even fifteen times. And yet, it features very little in the genre that is dedicated to all things future, science fiction. In the 75 years since its inception, the Alliance has appeared in just six films and five books, with most of these not even strictly science fiction. To some, this does not matter: they equate science fiction with fantasy, a realm of the impossible. But to others, it does: science fiction has a knack for detecting trends, imagining the rare, extrapolating consequences, and sparking important debates about what is to come. It is precisely this quality that makes science fiction useful for security and defence purposes. In part, this is because science fiction often focuses on technology, projecting innovations such as sliding doors, mobile phones and tablets (Star Trek 1966 - 1969), Virtual Reality (The Matrix 1999), and space travel (Francis Godwin, Cyrano de Bergerac, Johannes Kepler in the 17th century). But it also asks moral questions about the implications of these innovations, such as Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein (1818), Isaac Azimov’s I, Robot (1950) or Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World (1931). Science fiction can also have a warning effect, highlighting were things might go wrong in the political sense, whether it is 1984 warning of a totalitarian society or Snow Crash (1992) showcasing the effects of excess capitalism on democracy. For military purposes, science fiction can imagine conflicts precisely in order to prevent or mitigate them. Since the late 19th century, authors have used this genre to anticipate and prepare for conflicts to come, with George Chesney’s The Battle of Dorking (1871) being one of the first of this kind, describing an invasion of Britain by a German-speaking country, including the destruction of the Royal Navy by a futuristic wonder-weapon (“fatal engines”). H.G. Wells’s The Land Ironclads (1903) in turn featured tank-like armoured fighting vehicles.1 It is for this reason that science fiction has been used repeatedly by military organizations. In the 1980s, US President Ronald Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative was influenced by science fiction material, and Ghost Fleet (2015) was said by then SACEUR Admiral James Stavridis to be “a startling blueprint for the wars of the future and therefore needs to be read now!” But the military has not just used existing science fiction, but also used the genre to develop its own thinking, be it in the United States – such as the US Army TRADOC Mad Scientist Initiative which produced Science Fiction: Visioning the Future of Warfare 2030-2050 (2016) – or in France, where the project La Red Team hires science fiction authors to imagine what future opponents might think and do.2 Similar initiatives are also underway in the United Kingdom and Germany. Of course, imagining the future of NATO is a much bigger task than solely imagining the future of conflict, and perhaps this explains why the Alliance features little in regular science fiction. While NATO might be about defence, it is first and foremost a political enterprise, a promise for the future. Envisioning what challenges it will face and overcome, how it will adapt to a changing political, technological and even physical environment and maintain unity makes for a much bigger task than coming up with a new weapon that could change everything. And this is precisely what we asked the authors in this volume to do 75 years after NATO was born: imagine what it will look like 75 years from now, in 2099.
Topic:
NATO, Future, and Science Fiction
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

118. The perception of climate change in Senegal coastal areas

Author:
Serigne Momar Sarr, Adama Faye, Dibor Sarr Faye, and Thierno Sarr
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The cognitive dimension of climate change is a subject that is rarely analysed. However, communities’ endogenous adaptation strategies are heavily dependent on their perception of the risks linked to climate change. An analysis of individuals’ representations and perceptions of climate change makes it possible to improve the ability to adapt of territories confronted by it. In this analysis, the relations of interdependence between perception, knowledge and adaptation strategies show how communities living in the coastal area of Senegal interpret climate change, in particular in the fields of agriculture, water resources and coastal areas. Considering these representations favours the co-construction and acceptability of the adaptation strategies. It enables state and non state actors to better understand the communities’ needs as regards public climate policies, whereas the media can identify levers they can use to devise effective public information campaigns on the climate, in order to reduce the vulnerability of communities that face climate hazards.
Topic:
Climate Change, Risk, Adaptation, and Perception
Political Geography:
Africa and Senegal

119. Increasing Civil Society Ownership of National Climate Plans: Lessons drawn from Senegal’s NDC experience

Author:
Estelle Briot
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The issue of civil society participation in the processes of developing, implementing, and monitoring national climate plans is crucial to ensuring that these ambitions are both acceptable to the populations and, beyond that, that they align with a trajectory of sustainable development beneficial to all actors in Senegalese society. This case study aims to analyze the degree of involvement through consultations with a variety of civil society actors, as well as members of the administration and international partners active in the fight against climate change. While some believe that civil society participation has progressed significantly in recent years, the vast majority feel that the level reached is still insufficient. Barriers to civil society’s appropriation of climate issues include, among others, the lack of representativeness of grassroots organizations and vulnerable groups, as well as the unfamiliarity of civil society organizations (CSOs) and community-based organizations (CBOs) with the processes, objectives, and stakeholders of the National Climate Plan (NCP), meaning that many civil society actors are rarely aware of their contribution to its implementation even though they are involved. The study also shows how limited human and financial resources reduce the possibility of broad participation by civil society organizations, especially outside the capital. This raises the question of a fair, adequate, and targeted allocation of climate financing to meet the ambitions of climate policies in Senegal. This report presents recommendations to overcome barriers that may explain low ownership of national climate plans by communities, in order to propose ways for populations to be key actors in an ambitious ecological transition in Senegal.
Topic:
Civil Society, Climate Change, Participation, and Ambition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

120. Essential but Invisible and Exploited: A literature review of migrant workers’ experiences in European agriculture

Author:
Carlos Ruiz-Ramírez, Juan Castillo-Rojas-Marcos, and Yoan Molinero-Gerbeau
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This report – derived from work implemented by Oxfam Intermón and the University Institute for Studies on Migration (IUEM) of Comillas University in the EU SafeHabitus project – is based on a review of academic and non-academic literature from the past five years. It assesses research on working, living, health and transport conditions for migrants working in the agri-food sector in Europe, and cross-cutting gender issues.
Topic:
Agriculture, Food, European Union, Migrant Workers, Supply Chains, Equity, Production, and Gender
Political Geography:
Europe

121. The EU Tobacco Tax Structure: Impact on Prices, Revenues, and Smoking Patterns

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Multilateral organisations such as the World Bank and the IMF have made the argument that specific excise taxes for cigarette taxation can provide significant benefits over ad valorem excise taxes. Chief among the benefits they identify are: more stable and predictable government excise tax receipts; a lower administrative burden for tax management and collection; and internalising the externalities produced by cigarette consumption. Across the EU, Member States have been restructuring their excise tax systems to create an increasingly prominent role for specific excise taxes. Between 2010 and 2023, authorities in the EU opted to rebalance towards specific excise and away from ad valorem excise, with the average ad valorem rate across Member States falling from 36.7% to 27.0% of retail selling price (RSP). As a result, in this period the average specific excise burden across the EU increased from 30.9% to 44.5% of total taxation. However, this shift has not been uniform across Member States and the approach to cigarette taxation has diverged. Countries like Denmark and Sweden have moved to an almost total reliance on specific excise taxes. Meanwhile in some Member States such as Italy and Spain, the share of specific excise tax in total taxation has remained very low. In this study, we examine the experience of eight EU Member States that have all taken differing approaches to cigarette excise policy in recent years. In four countries that have rebalanced to achieve a higher proportional use of specific excise taxes since 2010, we found excise tax receipts to have remained stable or increased, despite flat or falling rates of legal consumption. In four countries that have not significantly rebalanced towards specific excise taxes, the results were more mixed. Italy and Spain, notably, have seen a decline in their cigarette excise tax receipts over the period, despite below-average declines in cigarette consumption. Ad valorem-based excise tax systems do not provide as strong an incentive for manufacturers to raise prices as a specific excise-based system would. In addition, ad valorem dominated excise tax systems can encourage downward substitution from consumers for cheaper alternatives, exacerbating the decline in excise tax receipts.
Topic:
Economics, European Union, Tax Systems, Tobacco, Price, and Revenue
Political Geography:
Europe

122. The Environmental Impact of Digital Over Cash Payments in Europe

Author:
Jan Sun, Hannah Zick, and Johanna Neuhoff
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
On behalf of the European Digital Payment Industry Alliance (EDPIA), our report on “The Environmental Impact of Digital over Cash Payments in Europe” seeks to evaluate carbon emissions across payment systems at point of sales. Businesses and governments are becoming more and more focused on mitigating the effects of climate change through processes and policies, and the payment sector is no exception. As digital payments become more prevalent—with the number of non-cash payments doubling from 21% in 2016 to 41% in 2022 in the euro-area alone according to the European Central Bank—there has been a growing need to understand the environmental effects of these shifting preferences. Although some evidence indicates that digital payments have a smaller environmental footprint than cash payments, there has not been a comparative lifecycle assessment done between the two of them. In addition, given large differences across geographies, the actual impacts of payment methods at points of sales (POS) can differ widely from country to country. To examine this issue, this study utilises a Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) following the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) guidelines. A method Oxford Economics has added to its toolkit, the LCA is a holistic approach that appraises environmental impacts across stages of a product lifecycle on a variety of categories. Which, in this case, includes a total of different 18 categories including for example, global warming potential, mineral resource scarcity, and ionizing radiation. This cradle-to-grave approach is used for three purposes: Firstly, to consider the separate processes of cash and non-cash payments in order to isolate the environmental “hotspots” and their respective impacts. Secondly, to understand the processes in three countries with different rates of payment adoption—Italy, Germany, and Finland—for comprehensive results. Thirdly, to compare the environmental impact of cash and non-cash payments at point of sales in the different impact categories.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Carbon Emissions, Radiation, and Digital Payments
Political Geography:
Europe, Finland, Germany, and Italy

123. The Security Side of Gulf Visions. Adapting Defence to the Connectivity Age

Author:
Eleanora Ardemagni
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
The GCC states are adapting defence strategies to the challenges raised by their “Visions”, their post-hydrocarbon national plans. Far from being just economic programmes, the Visions are broad national transformation platforms displaying also a security dimension, and with many security implications. New cities and industrial poles, infrastructures, mega events and tourism raise unprecedented security risks, at which the GCC states are answering through a combination of economic-oriented foreign policy, multipolar international alliances, and ambitions towards “defense autonomisation”. What are the Visions’ security dimensions and implications, and how does the post-oil path affect and reshape foreign policies? This Report analyses how GCC states are adapting deterrence and defence tools to the connectivity age, navigating a troubled neighbourhood of both conventional and asymmetric threats. In a central but more vulnerable Gulf, how may the EU and NATO accommodate transformations in GCC states’ defense policies, postures, and means, to support their own security?
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

124. Moving Targets. Trends in Japan’s Foreign and Security Policies

Author:
Axel Berkofsky and Giulia Sciorati
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
In December 2022, Japan announced it would drastically increase its defence budget by 2027. The decision came as a wake-up call for the whole region: Japan was gearing up for a world of heightened tensions and rivalry in the Indo-Pacific Region. This Report analyses the present and future of Japan’s security and defence policies. Within the context of a rising China, Tokyo has broadened its defence ties with the US, India, Australia, and Taiwan. However, China remains its biggest trading partner, meaning Tokyo's policymakers are charged with the task and challenge of striking a balance between defence policies and business and trade relations with China.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, ASEAN, Influence, Defense Spending, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Japan, India, Taiwan, Australia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

125. Blockchain and Energy Understanding Opportunities and Challenges

Author:
Nicola De Blasio and Charles Hua
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
The transition to a decarbonized, decentralized, and digitized energy future will unlock new business, policy, and technology models with the associated opportunities and challenges. Innovative technologies like blockchain, a shared, decentralized, and immutable digital ledger system that processes, validates, and manages digital transactions based on algorithmic consensus protocols, may enable this transition. Potential blockchain applications in energy range from enhanced distributed energy resources and peer-to-peer energy trading regimes to more robust grid management and smart energy contracts. There has been significant hype around blockchain’s potential impact in shaping economic and energy systems. Yet, it is essential to separate signal from noise and assess blockchain’s potential impact. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis by identifying key use cases and then addressing which key characteristics blockchain technologies need to bring to fruition to support them. It also proposes an analytical framework to evaluate the potential impact of eight applications based on four key criteria: feasibility, maturity, scalability, and value additivity.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Innovation, Blockchain, Decarbonization, Energy, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

126. The Sky Is Not the Limit. Geopolitics and Economics of the New Space Race

Author:
Alessandro Gili
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Space is a contested domain for its very nature and today it is evidently becoming an increasingly important enabler of economic and military power. An increasing number of actors, infrastructures and technologies deployed in space also raises concerns for safety and security, especially in cyberspace. Many countries are striving to achieve space capabilities and autonomous access to space, and this is having a tremendous geopolitical impact, especially since space is emerging as an increasingly critical military and strategic domain. The development of the new space economy, which is increasingly involving the private sector and many industrial actors and services, will also be a game changer for the international economy. The space race likewise implies disruptive technologies that could contribute massively to the energy and digital transitions, accelerating solutions that could benefit humanity. A new international governance system for space is therefore needed urgently, considering that the current rules are no longer able to respond to a sector evolving at such a rapid pace. Which actors are leading the race? Which economic sectors could benefit the most and what could the new space economy mean for the world? How is space emerging as a military domain against a backdrop of increasing international tensions? What would a new system of global governance for space look like?
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Regulation, and Energy Security
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, India, Italy, Global Focus, United States of America, and Space

127. Guide for the Social Inclusion of Formerly Incarcerated Individuals

Author:
Melina Risso, Vivian Calderoni, Camila Nadalini de Godoy, Carolina Loeb, Marina Alkmim, and Julia Quirino
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
The social inclusion of formerly incarcerated individuals is a global challenge that requires reforms in the justice system, strengthening of the rule of law, and the implementation of specific public policies. This guide presents a synthesis of strategies adopted by programs on the topic in different countries, including Brazil, which can serve as a model for implementing and improving initiatives nationwide. Brazil ranks third in the world in the absolute number of incarcerated individuals, reflecting social, racial, and educational inequalities present in its prison population and highlighting the selectivity of the justice system, which tends to predominantly imprison young, low-educated Black individuals. Upon release, former prisoners face numerous challenges, such as difficulty accessing support and assistance programs due to limited availability, which is generally concentrated in capital cities. It is necessary to invest in overcoming this scenario by implementing and improving programs and strategies, considering regional specificities and significant variations in incarceration rates among states. Without preparation and material, financial, psychological, and social support, the challenges for social reintegration become often insurmountable obstacles. This not only makes communities more insecure but also contributes to criminal recidivism, establishing a vicious cycle of crime and social rejection. This guide was developed to support the reversal of this scenario by adopting a rights-guarantee perspective. Its objective is to assist in the implementation and improvement of initiatives directed at the social inclusion of formerly incarcerated individuals across the country. Based on the analysis of 123 national and international programs for the attention of former prisoners, this document presents the purposes of these programs and details the strategies adopted.
Topic:
Prisons/Penal Systems, Inequality, Public Policy, Labor Market, Inclusion, Reintegration, and Criminal Recidivism
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

128. Challenges and Recommendations for the Amazon through the voices of women defenders of human rights and the environment: Colombia

Author:
Renata Avelar Giannini, Katherine Aguirre, and Caitlin Wiley
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
In the Colombian Amazon, women defenders play a crucial role in combating climate change by protecting their territories and communities. Given that Colombia ranks among the most dangerous countries for environmental and human rights activists, these women confront numerous risks. The conflicts mainly focus around access to, evaluation, distribution, management, and use of natural resources. This study shares their personal experiences, challenges, and achievements, and details their interactions with various actors — including government bodies, mining and fossil fuel companies, as well as the extractive and agribusiness sectors. Their mission is dedicated to safeguarding the Colombian Amazon biome, which is currently the site of 27 major environmental conflicts, as reported by the Sinchi Institute of Scientific Research of the Amazon. This report seeks to amplify the voices of Colombian defenders, whose efforts to protect the Amazon biome are often overlooked and receive limited social and economic support.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Human Rights, Natural Resources, Women, Conflict, Activism, Extractive Industries, Biometrics, and Amazon Rainforest
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Amazon Basin

129. Social Reintegration of Former Inmates: Networked Strategies for Promoting Public Policies and Strengthening Civil Society Organizations

Author:
Melina Risso, Vivian Calderoni, Camila Nadalini de Godoy, Carolina Loeb, Marina Alkmim, and Julia Quirino
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
The social reintegration process for former inmates presents challenges that extend beyond the confines of the justice system alone. In the Brazilian context, marked by regional disparities and social, racial, and educational inequalities, the lack of material, financial, and psychosocial support places ex-inmates in a cycle of social rejection and criminality. The deficiency of adequate investments, exacerbated by an emphasis on punishment over post-release reintegration, intensifies these challenges. Thus, it underscores the importance of networked collaboration among public, private, and civil society sectors to optimize resource use, promote integrated solutions, and overcome obstacles in assisting former inmtes, providing multidimensional support for social reintegration. This report outlines the strategies of five network-based initiatives aimed at former inmates, implemented both in Brazil and globally. The document details how these initiatives contribute to strengthening the social reintegration of former inmates and illustrates how they can serve as models to inspire other coordinated actions in the same field. Social reintegration of former inmates and its related concepts used here synonymously – such as (re)insertion, (re)inclusion, (res)socialization, (re)education, (re)adaptation, and (re)habilitation – should be seen as a priority not only by the criminal justice system but by all stakeholders who may have a direct or indirect influence on this process. It is a global challenge that requires reforms in the justice system, strengthening the rule of law, and implementing specific public policies focused on the various challenges these individuals face in their resocialization process, including aspects such as social interaction, employment opportunities, and access to housing, health, and education. This study acknowledges that the pursuit of social reintegration should be approached from the perspective of ensuring rights and not limited to the view of security and reducing criminal recidivism. This principle was adopted based on the recognition that the criminal justice system is an environment that creates and perpetuates inequalities for the individuals within it. Therefore, ensuring the rights that were denied before, during, and after incarceration is essential for effective social reintegration. Interventions and programs with multiple approaches for this group are rarely accessible, limited to sporadic opportunities to access essential services. In Brazil, which ranks as the third country worldwide in terms of the absolute number of incarcerated individuals, there is a significant variation in incarceration rates across states, which highlights the regional disparities. The composition of Brazil’s prison population also reflects social, racial, and educational inequalities, emphasizing the selective nature of a justice system which imprisons a disproportionate number of black, young, and uneducated people.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Human Rights, Prisons/Penal Systems, Inequality, Reintegration, and Criminal Recidivism
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and Global Focus

130. Violence Against Women in the Legal Amazon in the Last Five Years

Author:
Melina Risso, Vivian Calderoni, Marina Alkmim, and Katherine Aguirre Tobón
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
The Amazon, known for its biodiversity, is the scene of intense geopolitical disputes around the exploitation of its natural resources, involving various significant economic actors, illicit groups, and criminal activities. Among the various illicit activities present in the daily life of the region, we can highlight logging, agriculture, and livestock farming with negative environmental impacts, illegal mining, especially of gold, land usurpation, and other forms of environmental degradation. These criminal activities in the Amazon go beyond the destruction of forest biodiversity, also revealing institutional fragility through complex criminal networks that foster drug trafficking, child sexual exploitation, slave labor, and high levels of violence in its various forms. The Amazon is a region marked by various layers of violence, underdevelopment, and reduced quality of life for its diverse population.6 The high homicide rates in the region, which has a rate of intentional violent deaths 45% higher than the national average and is among the six deadliest cities in Brazil, evidence of a situation of excessive and persistent violence. Although the homicide rate is the most used parameter to measure violence worldwide, it hides the brutal reality of women’s life experiences, who are the main victims of all types of violence, except for homicides. In the Amazon region, this is no different. In this sense, women are exposed to a greater variety of violence considered “less severe” because they do not directly result in death, compared to men. However, the murders of women often represent the final stage of a succession of aggressions. Considering the disproportionality of female victimization in all forms of non-lethal violence – which often do not receive the necessary attention in the formulation of public policies and in debates on the subject, constantly marked by a lack of standardization and reliability in data sources –, the EVA platform and the productions derived from it seek to contribute with the systematization and analysis of data. The goal is to map and understand the patterns of violence against women, providing inputs for the planning of evidence-based public policies, capable of modifying the adverse reality. This report aims to provide a detailed overview of violence against women in the Amazon region over the last five years.
Topic:
Crime, Development, Women, Gender Based Violence, and Violence
Political Geography:
South America and Amazon Basin

131. Challenges and Recommendations for the Amazon – Peru

Author:
Renata Avelar Giannini, Igor Novaes Lins, and Katherine Aguirre
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
Women in the Peruvian Amazon face multiple pressures – environmental, economic, and social. Against a backdrop of profound social inequality in Peruvian society, exacerbated by the historical marginalization of indigenous communities, the defenders interviewed for this study conducted by the Igarapé Institute highlight the pressing need for inclusive policies that ensure territorial rights, land demarcation, and access to essential services. This report aims to analyze the intricate relationship between indigenous women and their territories in Peru, exploring their experiences, challenges, and achievements in protecting territories and mitigating climate change. It employs a participatory methodology that encompasses social and territorial mapping, classification of challenges and solutions, discussion groups, and in-depth interviews with key informants across four focus regions: Ucayali, San Martín, Madre de Dios, and Loreto. The study is divided into four sections and begins by framing the current state of the Peruvian Amazon, proceeds to outline the research methodology, then delves into the key challenges unearthed through interviews, and concludes with a compilation of recommendations aimed at strengthening the protection of territories and enhancing the living standards of indigenous women in Peru.
Topic:
Environment, Women, Inequality, Land Rights, Indigenous, Inclusion, and Amazon Rainforest
Political Geography:
South America, Peru, and Amazon Basin

132. The Diversity of Ethnic Minority Londoners

Author:
Farah Hussain
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
What do ethnic minority Londoners actually think about politics, society, racism in the UK, and life in the Capital? Much has been written about the difficulty of accurately polling ethnic minority voters in the UK. Given the Mile End Institute is situated in one of the most diverse boroughs in the country, we were determined to overcome these difficulties to find out what ethnic minority Londoners actually think about politics, society, racism, and life in the Capital.
Topic:
Politics, Public Opinion, Minorities, Ethnicity, Diversity, Society, and Racism
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, and London

133. Asia’s Climate Finance Needs & Opportunities: Advancing a Shared Vision

Author:
Meera Gopal and Kate Logan
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Asia is home to over half of the world’s population and faces immense challenges from climate change impacts. Despite receiving more climate finance than other regions, Asia's needs far outpace current flows, highlighting the urgency for enhanced transparency and accelerated reforms. “Asia’s Climate Finance Needs & Opportunities: Advancing a Shared Vision” provides a comprehensive analysis of climate finance flows to developing countries in Asia, emphasizing the need for reforms to the global financial architecture. This report, launched by the Asia Society Policy Institute, takes stock of current financial flows, assesses how global financial reforms could enhance these flows, and offers recommendations for moving forward from an Asian perspective. The study highlights Asia's diverse climate finance needs, the role of China’s development finance in the region, and the challenges posed by varying needs across subregions. It underscores the importance of harmonizing data and standards to improve transparency and support equitable distribution of funds. Key recommendations include adopting a “whole-of-economy” approach, repurposing fossil fuel subsidies, and increasing finance for adaptation efforts by tapping into the private sector. These strategies aim to address the unique climate and development needs of Asia and support its transition towards sustainable growth.
Topic:
Reform, Climate Finance, Economic Growth, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Asia

134. Climate Change in China’s Governance: Agenda, Agents, and International Collaboration

Author:
Guoguang Wu
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
China is the world's leading emitter and a key player in the international community's fight against climate change, but its climate action remains underpinned by a black box of policies, actors, and international influences. As China accelerates action to achieve domestic and international climate goals, it is more important than ever to detangle these webs and peer into the black box, to develop an understanding of what motivates China's decision-makers and how climate policy choices are made. In this insightful new report, Climate Change in China’s Governance: Agenda, Agents, and International Collaboration, Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis Senior Fellow on Chinese Politics Guoguang Wu conducts an in-depth investigation of China’s climate-related policies, politics, governance, and international relations. He finds that the Xi Jinping administration has paid special attention to climate action by advancing the green technology revolution and reducing energy dependence. However, at the same time, there are signs that China may be relaxing rather than strengthening its climate commitment. By conducting a deep dive into the evolving political actors and departments working on China’s climate agenda, Guoguang finds that ultra-concentrated political power and fragmented governance under Xi and the Chinese Communist Party pose obstacles to China’s climate action over the next five years.
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, Governance, and Green Technology
Political Geography:
China and Asia

135. Green Hydrogen for Decarbonizing Asia's Industrial Giants

Author:
Asia Society Policy Institute
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Asia’s transformation in recent decades into a global manufacturing hub has fueled economic growth and lifted millions out of poverty. However, this success has also massively increased the region’s emissions footprint, making it essential for Asia’s industries to rapidly transition to green technologies and processes. “Green Hydrogen for Decarbonizing Asia’s Industrial Giants” assesses the future potential and trajectory for electrolyzers needed to meet green hydrogen (H2) demand in Asia’s four largest economies: China, India, Japan, and South Korea. The report, which was commissioned by the High-level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero and carried out by Global Efficiency Intelligence, highlights the role of manufacturers as agents of change in the Asia’s net zero transition. The study focuses on the role of green H2 in three priority industries — steel, ammonia, and methanol — under various decarbonization scenarios. In these sectors, green H2 has the capacity to significantly reduce emissions by replacing carbon-intensive processes with renewable energy-powered electrolysis. Should the four countries adhere to their declared net zero targets, the collective market potential of electrolyzers for these industries is expected to skyrocket to $180 billion by 2050, with a compound annual growth rate as high as 12% between 2030 and 2040. This is nearly five times as large as the market potential under a business-as-usual scenario. The report offers a suite of recommendations for policymakers, industry players, investors, and think thanks aimed at accelerating the development and adoption of green H2 and electrolyzer manufacturing. These targeted strategies aim to collectively support a robust ecosystem for green H2 production and use in these countries toward a net zero industry.
Topic:
Industry, Carbon Emissions, Decarbonization, Hydrogen, and Net Zero
Political Geography:
Japan, China, India, Asia, and South Korea

136. The Limits of Cooperation in Northeast Asia: Japan-ROK-China Relations After the Fukushima Wastewater Release

Author:
Daria Kurushina
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
More than a decade after the catastrophic earthquake and tsunami that hit northeastern Japan on March 11, 2011, causing the meltdown of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, the aftermath of the “triple disaster” continues to shape perceptions of Japan among its neighbors. The Japanese government’s decision to release into the sea more than a million tons of treated radioactive wastewater stored at the wrecked Fukushima plant beginning on August 24, 2023, decisively shifted the narrative of Japan’s experience: whereas the country was once viewed as the victim of one of the world’s worst nuclear disasters, it came to be seen by many in Northeast Asia as an atomic chemical antagonist. Following the announcement of the wastewater release, Japan faced an immediate backlash from neighboring countries and the international community over environmental and health concerns. The decision divided public opinion in both Japan and the broader Asia-Pacific region and threatened Japan’s attempts to position itself as the leader of a free, fair, and open Indo-Pacific. The Japanese government’s decision particularly roiled the public in Northeast Asia, where anti-Japanese sentiment stemming from the collective memory of Japan’s military ambition, colonialism, and atrocities of the late 19th and early 20th centuries persists. Meanwhile, authorities in some countries, especially China, intentionally stirred historical grievances and distrust in an attempt to undermine the trilateral relationship among Japan, Korea, and the United States. However, are concerns about the wastewater release warranted? In a Comprehensive Safety Review[1] the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) – the United Nations nuclear watchdog – determined that the release had no radiological impact on public health and the marine environment. Emphasizing the Fukushima plant’s compliance with “international safety standards,” IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi focused on the ongoing process of wastewater release and the Japanese’s government accountability for the water’s treatment, while also expressing concerns about the accumulation of tritium (a radioactive isotope of hydrogen that cannot be removed) in the water and the importance of further research on the effects of the wastewater on marine life. Driven by health concerns, geopolitical dynamics, and the absence of regional consultation, the Japanese decision provoked a furious public backlash among Asia-Pacific nations, particularly in South Korea and China. Relations among Japan, the Republic of Korea (ROK), and China have deteriorated in recent years amid rising security concerns over North Korea’s volatility, tensions between China and the United States, and wartime forced-labor reparations that caused long-term damage to Japan-ROK relations long before the rapprochement of 2023.[2] Participants in the Japan-ROK-China trilateral summit now have wastewater as another contentious topic to discuss during the renewed dialogue, which is scheduled to be convened in 2024. As the nuclear wastewater decision seems to have surfaced many thorny issues among the three countries, this paper seeks to explain the regional reaction to Japan’s decision, why this reaction matters, and how the trilateral relationship might evolve alongside the wastewater issue.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, Crisis Management, Fukushima Disaster, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, and Fukushima

137. China’s Cooperation with Southeast Asia to Support More Ambitious Clean Energy Transition by 2030

Author:
Asia Society Policy Institute
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Southeast Asia stands at a critical juncture in its energy transition, grappling with the need to foster clean energy development while confronting infrastructure and investment challenges. A series of engagements in 2023 organized by the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) brought together key stakeholders to strategize on enhancing China's role in the region's shift towards renewable energy, focusing on targeted investments and policy synergy with regional initiatives. This policy report, China’s Cooperation with Southeast Asia to Support More Ambitious Clean Energy Transition by 2030, introduces the "Clean Prosperity Plan," a blueprint advocating socio-economic and climate resilience through joint China-Southeast Asia efforts. The plan highlights project-specific recommendations, green industrialization, and renewable energy projects expedited by policy support, poised to catalyze investment and job creation, thereby sparking a positive feedback loop that could amplify regional clean energy ambitions.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Regional Cooperation, Infrastructure, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Southeast Asia

138. Deterring an attack on Taiwan: policy options for India and other non-belligerent states

Author:
Arzan Tarapore
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
India has a vital role to play in deterring China from unifying Taiwan by military force, a new Australian Strategic Policy Institute report finds, highlighting New Delhi’s significant economic, diplomatic, legal and strategic narrative levers. The report looks beyond traditional thinking on military preparations to dissuade Beijing from taking the island by force and offers six ways for India, with its great strategic and economic weight, to “help shape Beijing’s calculus away from the use of force”. The author writes that the use of such long-term measures is vital to New Delhi’s own interests, as the economic and regional security impacts of a major war would be devastating for India itself.  India and other “non-belligerent states” could apply a range of measures to persuade Beijing that the time is not right for a military attack. The aim would be to convince Beijing that "its ducks aren’t quite in a row... so that it defers military action to some uncertain point in the future". The report states that China remains deterrable. While it is determined to assume control of the island as a paramount strategic priority, it knows a military invasion would be enormously costly and uncertain.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Deterrence, Military, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
India, Taiwan, and Asia

139. The trade routes vital to Australia’s economic security

Author:
David Uren
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Arecurrent theme in Australia’s defence strategy has been our reliance on and need to defend Australia’s trade routes in a globalised world. The vulnerability of Australia’s limited stockpiles of critical goods and its concentrated sources of supply have driven military capability and planning for decades and remain a justification for strategic investments. The 2023 Defence Strategic Review argued that the danger of any power threatening to invade the Australian continent was remote, but that an adversary could implement military coercion at a distance with threats against our trade and supply routes. With limited resources and finite defence capability, yet vast interests at sea, it’s important that Australian security and economic planning is trained on the most critical pain points in our sea lines of communication. Strategy and planning must derive from up-to-date and accurate data about what we trade, via which routes, and to and from which specific locations. We also need to understand the factors that contribute to our resilience. They include the depth of supply options, the availability of alternative routes and the sheer strength in numbers which our shipping enjoys when it enters the mighty flow of commerce through the waters of our Asian trading partners. This report explores our trading routes in peace-time. Any conflict would bring sharper focus on what shipping and what trade is truly necessary and on what can be done to secure it. However, the strengths and vulnerabilities of our linkages to the world are evident now and are the focus of this report. Concerns have been sharpened by the assaults by Houthi militias on commercial shipping through the Bab al-Mandab Strait at the entrance to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, disrupting the 12% of global trade that passes through those waters.2 In addition, drought has slashed the capacity of the Panama Canal, which in normal seasons handles a further 5% of world trade. Surprisingly, the course and operation (who is moving what) of Australia’s trade routes has received extraordinarily little analysis. The last significant public paper on the topic was conducted by the Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics (now the Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics, BITRE) in 2007 and was based on data from 2001 to 2004. The profile of Australia’s trade has changed radically since then. This report makes five key policy recommendations and the first of these is that the government fund BITRE to update its 2007 study of trade routes so that Defence can make assessments of how best to secure Australia’s trade routes. A dangerous combination of complacency and tolerance could be born of a view that conflicts are in faraway locations. The reality is that few saw either of the current wars as imminent when they started, and we mustn’t make the same mistake in our region. A central finding in this report is that the greatest risk to the security of our trade routes lies relatively close to home, in the narrow channels through the Indonesian archipelago through which more than half Australia’s maritime trade must pass. Another strong conclusion is that trade has a surprising resilience in the face of conflict: it is important to understand the sources of that strength and develop plans to maximise it.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, National Security, Trade, and Economic Security
Political Geography:
Australia

140. Regional security and Pacific partnerships: recruiting Pacific Islanders into the Australian Defence Force

Author:
Bec Shrimpton and Zach Lambert
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
The security and stability of the South Pacific and Australia are deeply intertwined. Australian Government policies have for more than a decade consistently prioritised the Pacific for international engagement, including in defence, development and diplomacy. The Australian Government’s ‘Pacific Step-up’, first announced in 2016, delivered a heightened level of effort by Canberra in the region, as did Australia’s strong support for the Pacific Islands Forum’s Boe Declaration. The Albanese government’s increased policy focus on the region, and on a coordinated whole-of-government approach to the Pacific, demonstrates the centrality of our immediate region to the Australian Government’s strategic planning. Australia’s 2023 Defence Strategic Review (DSR) outlined the need for innovative and bold approaches to recruitment and retention in the Australian Defence Force (ADF), which is seeking to grow by 30% by 2040 but is not yet hitting existing recruitment targets. Budget figures released for 2023 show that ADF personnel numbers dropped by more than 1,300, or more than 2% of the total force. The Budget projections for 2024 to 2026 indicate that the government requires more than 6,000 additional personnel—in addition to replacing those lost through attrition in the next three years—to meet stated growth requirements. In the context of a competitive recruitment environment in Australia, especially for skilled labour, that trend indicates that the Defence organisation will struggle to meet forecast requirements using existing recruitment options and will need to seek alternatives. This challenge of competition for talent and to retain skilled workers is not limited to defence nor Australia. It is an economy wide issue, and global. As a result, there has been an ‘on-again, off-again’ public debate about whether the Australian Government should consider the recruitment of foreigners into the ADF, with a specific focus on Pacific islanders. Obviously, such an initiative could help the ADF’s recruitment numbers, but, importantly, it could open up economic, skills and training opportunities for Pacific islanders. It could also provide a powerful cultural and practical engagement opportunity for the ADF, while also providing Australia with avenues to help shape the region’s security environment in positive and culturally relevant ways. Such recruitment—especially if it involves bilateral agreements between governments—would also put Pacific Island governments in a unique position to inform Australia’s security assessments and contribute to shared outcomes. Those outcomes could include enhanced regional interoperability, especially for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) and supporting combined stability operations, and stronger two-way cultural and social engagement, bolstering familiarity and understanding between the ADF and Pacific Island countries (PICs). There are, of course, arguments against such recruitment. For example, the recruitment of Pacific islanders to fight for Australia could be viewed by some as ‘colonialist’ in a region understandably sensitive to that history. But this concern could be addressed through PICs retaining agency through bilateral arrangements. In addition, any scheme seeking to relocate workers to Australia could be seen as taking skills from a much smaller nation, and risking brain and skills drains. We look at these, and other, considerations in this report. Below, we identify and assess the key recruitment and retention problems faced by the ADF that foreign recruitment, particularly the recruitment of Pacific islanders, may help to resolve. Our report then delves into various arguments for and against the recruitment of Pacific islanders into the ADF including background information that contextualises the current debate. Ultimately, there are many benefits to opening up pathways for Pacific islanders to serve in the ADF, with the clear caveat that any process to formally establish a program must be culturally and politically sensitive, be informed by detailed risk and impact assessment, and have strong monitoring and evaluation mechanisms in place. We then explore three options for the recruitment of Pacific islanders: Direct recruiting from the Pacific region into the ADF Closer integration and operation between existing Australian and PIC forces A broader partnership model drawing on lessons from the US’s ‘compacts of free association’ and from the UK’s defence recruitment initiatives. We analyse key impacts that those options may have, both in the Pacific and for the ADF. The potential policy options offered aren’t exhaustive. However, they are plausible and represent different approaches (which could be combined) to achieve outcomes related to ADF recruitment and retention as well as to improved regional collective security. A critical consideration in developing these options was a two-way flow of benefit: from the Pacific to Australia and from Australia back to the region. For example, we recommend that, where possible, Pacific recruits receive focused training in HADR, which would help build sovereign PIC capabilities and facilitate the application of learned skills upon recruits’ return to their home countries. An important part of this research was ensuring that PIC military and security personnel were engaged and could feed into and shape the development of this research report, including the three options put forward for potential recruitment. This occurred in multiple ways. We collected feedback and perspectives through a dedicated roundtable discussion, in a series of interviews and then during the research process to ensure that this report was informed by regional, cultural and local considerations (see details regarding some of that data collection on page 16). The report captures five specific insights from the Pacific island military and security community that are relevant in considering the implementation of any of the three recruitment options. Finally, we acknowledge that further research is needed to resolve the complexity of some of the policy and legal issues associated with the options suggested. We nominate some specific areas that warrant further investigation.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Partnerships, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Australia and Asia-Pacific

141. Reclaiming leadership: Australia and the global critical minerals race

Author:
Ian Satchwell
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Climate policy, geopolitics and market forces are coalescing to deliver Australia a global leadership opportunity in critical minerals. To grasp that opportunity, Australia needs both to utilise its domestic mineral endowment and its mining knowledge and technology and to leverage the global footprint of Australian companies to help build a global supply chain network. How Australia responds will not only determine economic benefits to the nation but will also affect the world’s ability to achieve minerals security and the sustainability required for the global energy transition and inclusive economic growth. The global energy transition and other high-technology applications have increased demand for critical minerals, particularly in countries that have strong complex manufacturing industries. At the same time, the concentration of production of many critical minerals, the dominance of China in supply chains and its actions to restrict supply and influence markets, are disrupting both minerals production and availability. In response, developed nations have formulated critical minerals strategies and entered into bilateral and multilateral agreements, involving supplier nations and customer nations, to build alternative supply chains that are more diverse, secure and sustainable. Australia has committed in multiple agreements to work with like-minded nations to achieve this. This report is intended to provide the government with a road map to ‘step up’ to (re)activate Australia’s global mineral leadership.
Topic:
Climate Change, Science and Technology, Leadership, Alliance, Emerging Technology, Minerals, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Australia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

142. Australia’s 2024 Independent Intelligence Review: opportunities and challenges: Views from The Strategist

Author:
Chris Taylor
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Australia has a recent history of intelligence community reform via independent intelligence reviews (IIRs) commissioned by government on a regular basis since 2004. The latest IIR is being undertaken by Dr Heather Smith and Mr Richard Maude. In the lead-up to the announcement of the 2024 IIR, and afterwards, ASPI’s The Strategist has served as a valuable forum for canvassing publicly the most significant issues and challenges to be addressed by the reviewers. This report draws together a selection of articles featured in The Strategist over the past year, with direct relevance to the review and its terms of reference. The articles cover topics from the broad to the specific but include: the review itself, including its scope and purpose the key capability challenge facing Australian intelligence—its future workforce the ‘how’ of intelligence now and into the future; more particularly, new tools such as intelligence diplomacy and offensive cyber operations the purposes for intelligence – from addressing global, existential risks to informing effective net assessment of Australia’s strategic circumstances. In the lead-up to the expected public release of the IIR’s findings later this year, this compilation provides valuable background to the review and to the fundamental challenges and opportunities facing Australian intelligence in the decade ahead.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Intelligence, and National Security
Political Geography:
Australia and Australia/Pacific

143. AUKUS Pillar 2 critical pathways: a road map to enabling international collaboration

Author:
George Henneke and Roland Stephens
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
The AUKUS trilateral partnership presents Australia with an unprecedented opportunity to achieve national-security goals that have eluded it for decades. It could offer access to cutting-edge technologies. It can further integrate Australian, US and UK military forces, allowing more unified action to maintain deterrence against national and transnational actors who threaten the global rules-based order. Perhaps most importantly, AUKUS—in particular its Pillar.2 objectives—is an opportunity for Australia to pursue the long-sought industrial capacity necessary to defend its borders and its interests across a range of probable conflict scenarios.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Partnerships, Emerging Technology, Collaboration, and AUKUS
Political Geography:
Australia and Australia/Pacific

144. Nobody wins unless everybody wins: The Coles review into the sustainment of Australia’s Collins-class submarines

Author:
Andrew Davies
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
In 2003, Australia became the proud owner of the last of six new-build Collins-class submarines. Less than a decade later, the fleet was in a poor state of repair, and at times only one or two of the boats were available to the Royal Australian Navy. This account by Andrew Davies explains how the situation was remediated by bringing in a team of highly experienced naval professionals to take an uncompromising look at the arrangements in place to manage a vital national defence asset. Despite a public perception that the submarines were inherently defective, the problems were in fact almost entirely due to dysfunctional and often rancorous organisational dynamics between the key players. In the space of just a few years, and with remarkably little required in the way of additional funding, the situation took a dramatic turn for the better. As with earlier ASPI case studies on defence projects, Nobody wins unless everybody wins is designed to help those in Defence, industry and parliament and other interested observers to better understand the complexities of the business, all with the aim of improving how Australia equips and sustains its defence force.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Economics, National Security, Armed Forces, Defense Industry, and Submarines
Political Geography:
Australia and Australia/Pacific

145. The cost of Defence: ASPI Defence budget brief 2024-2025

Author:
Bec Shrimpton
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Australia needs to spend more on defence—and it needs to do so immediately. The strategic imperative has been firmly established in the government’s own major defence documents. The Albanese government and the Coalition opposition agree that we are in the gravest geopolitical period in generations and this is only going to intensify. But as the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s latest Cost of Defence report finds, the rhetorical urgency is not being matched by action in the form of defence investment. The May budget is the latest demonstration of this mismatch, lacking spending for swift increases in capabilities that the Australian Defence Force would need if our region were to deteriorate quickly. In particular, this year’s budget priorities are not directed towards strengthening the Australian Defence Force’s ability to fight in the next decade. This is not doom-mongering; the government has acknowledged that the warning time before any conflict, which had long been set at 10 years, has shrunk to effectively zero time. We have war in Ukraine and the Middle East, aggression and increasingly dangerous and unprofessional behaviour from China causing instability and confrontation in the South China Sea and across the Taiwan Strait, erosions of the rule of law and revisionist agendas from authoritarians. Instability is heightened by foreign interference, economic coercion and artificial intelligence-enabled dangers such as cyber attacks and disinformation. If war were to break out at any time in the next 10 years, our military would essentially fight with the force it has today. Based on current resourcing, nothing significant will change over the decade. Most of the major new capabilities in the government’s defence investment blueprint are two decades away from being fully fielded. That blueprint does contain some shorter-term enhancements, but these will not be fielded until the 2030s. The welcome $5.7 billion in new defence spending over the four-year forward estimates period is devoted to just three priorities: the AUKUS submarines, the next fleet of surface warships and investment in long-range strike, targeting and autonomous systems. But two thirds of this funding doesn’t arrive until 2027-28. The relatively impressive longer term plan leaves us vulnerable in the immediate period ahead. More money immediately is not a silver bullet, and ambition must be balanced with how much Defence can actually spend each year. But the nation’s security requires a two-pronged strategy of enhancing our existing force to meet threats within the decade while investing in long term capabilities. Other countries are furiously pursuing new capabilities that can be put into action quickly—such as creating masses of small drones and prototyping and developing new technologies. We talk about technology and asymmetric advantage—playing to your strengths and finding effective means to exploit an opponent’s weaknesses–yet we lack a credible pathway to bring them into operation to bolster the force we have today. Over the longer term, the picture starts gradually to improve. The $50 billion in additional spending over the next decade is an important commitment, even if far away. The plan for a complete recapitalisation of the surface combatant fleet will eventually give us the biggest and most capable navy Australia has had since World War Two. But, so far, we are failing to grasp the opportunity to link our traditional large platforms such as submarines and warships to more modern developments in warfare—drones and various small uncrewed and smart capabilities. AI, robotics, electronic warfare and space capabilities remain aspirational, without any pathway for inclusion and integration into a truly focused force capable of meaningful deterrence and warfighting. That is why it is so important to realise AUKUS Pillar II, which is dealing with these capabilities. It’s easy to criticise; harder to do. All governments are grappling with tight budgets amid competing demands and the unremitting expectations of voters and taxpayers. As a nation, we need to accept the need for higher defence spending. Hoping that conflict won’t come is not a viable strategy. If we are prepared for war, we have a better chance of deterring and hence averting it. Europe is living that lesson now, having put all hope in the judgment that global trade and economic entanglement would bring security. Now it is clear that military investment is imperative to deter war or best prepare nations for it. The government has a vital responsibility to speak plainly to the nation about the geopolitical risks and the possibility of conflict. We need to grasp the challenge that is in front of us today, not in three or five years’ time. Otherwise, we risk delivering on Macarthur’s famous two word warning: “The history of failure in war can almost always be summed up in two words: “Too late.” Too late in comprehending the deadly enemy. Too late in realizing the mortal danger. Too late in preparedness. Too late in uniting all possible forces for resistance.” Why take the risk of only acting after a crisis and saying better late than never? The world in turmoil demands we act in real time to both deter crises and be best prepared for them.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Economics, National Security, Armed Forces, Budget, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
Australia and Australia/Pacific

146. Negotiating technical standards for artificial intelligence

Author:
Bart Hogeveen, Arindrajit Basu, Isha Suri, and Baani Grewal
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) is delighted to share its latest report – the result of a multi-year project on Artificial Intelligence (AI), technical standards and diplomacy - that conducts a deep-dive into the important, yet often opaque and complicated world of technical standards. At the heart of how AI technologies are developed, deployed and used in a responsible manner sit a suite of technical standards: rules, guidelines and characteristics that ensure the safety, security and interoperability of a product. The report authors highlight that the Indo-Pacific, including Australia and India, are largely playing catch-up in AI standards initiatives. The United States and China are leading the pack, followed by European nations thanks to their size, scope and resources of their national standardisation communities as well as their domestic AI sectors. Not being strongly represented in the world of AI governance and technical standards is a strategic risk for Indo-Pacific nations. For a region that’s banking on the opportunities of a digital and technology-enabled economy and has large swathes of its population in at-risk jobs, it’s a matter of national and economic security that Indo-Pacific stakeholders are active and have a big say in how AI technologies will operate and be used. Being part of the conversations and negotiations is everything, and as such, governments in the Indo-Pacific - including Australia and India - should invest more in whole-of-nation techdiplomacy capabilities. Authored by analysts at ASPI and India’s Centre for Internet and Society, this new report ‘Negotiating technical standards for artificial intelligence: A techdiplomacy playbook for policymakers and technologists in the Indo-Pacific' - and accompanying website (https://www.techdiplomacy.aspi.org.au/) - explains the current state of play in global AI governance, looks at the role of technical standards, outlines how agreements on technical standards are negotiated and created, and describes who are the biggest ‘movers and shakers’. The authors note that there are currently no representatives from Southeast Asia (except Singapore), Australia, NZ or the Pacific Islands on the UN Secretary-General Advisory Body on AI – a body that’s tasked to come up with suggestions on how to govern AI in a representative and inclusive manner with an eye to achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The capacity of the Indo-Pacific to engage in critical technology standards has historically been lower in comparison to other regions. However, given the rapid and global impact of AI and the crucial role of technical standards, the report authors argue that dialogue and greater collaboration between policymakers, technologists and civil society has never been more important. It is hoped this playbook will help key stakeholders - governments, industry, civil society and academia - step through the different aspects of negotiating technical standards for AI, while also encouraging the Indo-Pacific region to step up and get more involved.
Topic:
National Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, Emerging Technology, and Standards
Political Geography:
Australia, Asia-Pacific, and Indo-Pacific

147. A national strategic warning intelligence capability for Australia

Author:
Chris Taylor
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Australia’s strategic warning time has collapsed—in response to profound geopolitical shifts. As the ADF is adapting to the hard implications of this change, so must the national intelligence community (NIC). Australian Government decision-makers need time and insight to identify and prioritise threats (and opportunities) and devise effective responses. Strategic warning intelligence enables and empowers them to do so. But it must be done in a way that keeps up with the rapid pace of geopolitical and technological change, and a widening array of non-traditional strategic threats, and in a fashion best suited to Australia’s circumstances. To meet this need the NIC should develop a discrete, institutional strategic warning intelligence function—an Australian Centre for Strategic Warning (ACSW). This would recognise the distinct skills, analytical focus and interface with decision-making entailed—and the vital national interests at stake. In implementing an ACSW, much can be learned from our own and other intelligence communities’ ongoing efforts to adapt to threats other than invasion—notably terrorism and pandemics. This will be especially pertinent in its application to grey-zone threats such as economic coercion. Done right, an ACSW would be an important addition to the suite of Australia’s statecraft tools.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Intelligence, National Security, and Armed Forces
Political Geography:
Australia

148. North of 26 degrees south and the security of Australia: views from The Strategist, Volume 9

Author:
John Coyne and Henry Campbell
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
The Northern Australia Strategic Policy Centre’s latest report, North of 26 degrees south and the security of Australia: views from The Strategist, Volume 9, contains articles published in ASPI’s The Strategist over the last six months. Expanding on previous volumes, this edition introduces thematic chapters focused on a range of subjects relevant to northern Australia. These include; 1. Defence in the North, 2. Developing Northern Australia, 3. Northern Australia and the Indo-Pacific 4. Critical Minerals, Energy, and Commodities, 5. Space, Food Security and Climate Trends As in previous editions, Volume 9 contains a range of expert opinions across these varied topics. Volume 9 also features a foreword by the Hon. Eva Lawler, Chief Minister of the Northern Territory. Chief Minister Lawler calls readers attention to the relevance of northern Australia in light of the National Defence Strategy and updated Integrated Investment Program as well as Australia’s economic ambitions, stating “the strategies in this volume can inform our efforts to unlock northern Australia’s full potential and build a stronger, more resilient nation.” The 36 articles discuss practical policy solutions for decision makers facilitating development, prosperity and security of northern Australia. These policy solutions tackle both the challenges and opportunities present in the north, and reflect the potential of the north to increasingly contribute to Australia’s national security and economic prosperity.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Climate Change, National Security, Food Security, Space, Defense Industry, and Minerals
Political Geography:
Australia, Asia-Pacific, and Indo-Pacific

149. Full tilt: The UK's defence role in the Pacific: Views from The Strategist

Author:
Alex Bristow
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Britain has a new prime minister, Keir Starmer, leading its first Labour government in 14 years. Key questions for us now are how Britain under Labour will approach the security partnership with Australia and whether London will remain committed to investing defence resources in the Indo-Pacific. This report provides vital context for addressing these questions. In this series of articles, originally published in ASPI’s The Strategist this year, ASPI authors review the historical underpinnings and future course of Britain’s strategic recoupling with Australia and this region, especially the Pacific Islands, from perspectives ranging from deterrence to climate resilience. The report makes some recommendations for how to strengthen the Australia-UK defence partnership and shape Britain's approach to our region.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Australia, and Asia-Pacific

150. The geopolitics of water: how the Brahmaputra River could shape India–China security competition

Author:
Neely Haby
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
This report assesses the geopolitical impact of a possible dam at the Great Bend of the Brahmaputra. In particular, it exams the dam as a potential source of coercive leverage China may gain over India. A dam there would create four likely strategic effects: it would very likely consolidate Beijing’s political control over its distant borderlands; it would create the potential for massive flooding as a tool of violence; it may affect human settlement and economic patterns on the Indian side of the border, downstream; and it would give Beijing water and data that it could withhold from India as bargaining leverage in unrelated negotiations. To mitigate those challenges and risks, the report provides three policy recommendations for the Indian Government and its partners in Australia and the US. First, it recommends the establishment of an open-source, publicly available data repository, based on satellite sensing, to disseminate information about the physical impacts of the Great Bend Dam. Second, it recommends that like-minded governments use international legal arguments to pressure Beijing to abide by global norms and conventions. Third, it recommends that the Quad—the informal group comprising Australia, India, Japan and the US—use its humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) guidelines to begin to share information and build capacity for dam-related contingencies.
Topic:
Water, Geopolitics, Rivers, Competition, Regional Security, and Brahmaputra River
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

151. Gender mainstreaming in United Nations peace operations: an unfulfilled promise?

Author:
Jen Wittwer
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
The principle of gender equality is a cornerstone of the United Nations (UN). Centred on equal access to rights, opportunities, resources and decision-making powers irrespective of gender, it’s embedded within the UN Charter and championed in the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Mechanisms such as the inaugural resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agreed to in 2000 by the UN Security Council (UNSC), and the adoption of an additional nine WPS resolutions, further represent the critical intent to achieve this goal. The purpose of such WPS mechanisms is to cultivate gender balance, foster diverse leadership and champion gender equality in a global effort to establish sustainable peace after conflict. Yet, as we stand on the threshold of the 25th anniversary of UNSC resolution 1325, the UN’s stride towards gender equality for uniformed women in peace operations has been ‘exceedingly slow’. The lofty aspiration of ‘equal opportunity peacekeeping’ through gender mainstreaming policies and practices remains elusive, entangled in a web of misconceptions and entrenched systemic barriers and institutional challenges. The purpose of this ASPI report is threefold. First, it examines the blocks to implementation and the effects of gender mainstreaming strategies. Second, it advances three strategic interventions for the UN system and its global peace and security community: redefining peacekeeping benchmarks for an efficient and effective uniformed component shifting the narrative on peacekeepers’ contributions regardless of gender incorporating feminist voices and practices in the development of policies and practices for the deployment of peacekeepers. These proposed interventions offer a unique prospect for the final section of this report: encouraging Australian Government departments and agencies that have responsibilities for and commitments to execute the Australian National Action Plan (NAP) on WPS. Those commitments extend to fostering gender equality in both domestic and international WPS endeavours, thereby strengthening Australia’s position as a proactive UN member state.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Women, Peace, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

152. The ‘official’ histories of Australian and British intelligence: lessons learned and next steps

Author:
Chris Taylor
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Unclassified, official histories of ‘secret’ intelligence organisations, for public readership, seem a contradiction in terms. These ‘official’ works are commissioned by the agencies in question and directly informed by those agencies’ own records, thus distinguishing them from other, outsider historical accounts. But while such official intelligence histories are relatively new, sometimes controversial, and often challenging for historians and agencies alike, the experiences of the Australian and British intelligence communities suggest they’re a promising development for scholarship, maintaining public trust and informed public discourse, and more effective functioning of national security agencies. Furthermore, these histories remain an ongoing project for Australia’s National Intelligence Community (NIC).
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Intelligence, and National Security
Political Geography:
Britain, Australia, and Australia/Pacific

153. Australia’s new digital ID system: finding the right way to implement it

Author:
Rajiv Shah
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
This report reviews the Australian Government's proposed plans for establishing a digital ID, and the ways the new system is expected to work. It explores the planned digital ID system, the key features of the approach, and the privacy and security protections that have been built into the proposals. Australia has had a long and troubled history with national ID systems, dating back to the mid-1980 when the government failed to introduce the Australia Card. Since then, Australia has ended up with a clunky and inefficient process to identify peoples’ identities online. It has led to an oversharing and storage of sensitive personal data. As the Medibank and Optus data breaches has shown, this creates serious cybersecurity risks. Now that Parliament has passed the Digital ID legislation, it’s critical that government gets the implementation right. The report outlines that, although the proposed federated model for a digital ID system is commendable and a needed step-forward, there is a need to still address a range of policy issues that - if left unresolved - would jeopardise trust in the system.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Australia and Australia/Pacific

154. Ice panda: navigating China’s hybrid Antarctic agenda

Author:
Elizabeth Buchanan
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Antarctica is often overlooked in strategic discussions, but its role in geopolitical competition deserves attention. This report assesses the continents importance to Australian security, China’s hybrid Antarctic activity, and the need for Australia to develop a balancing strategy capable of bolstering the Antarctic Treaty and ‘pushing back’ against growing Chinese power in Antarctica. Antarctica offers significant strategic advantages for the People's Republic of China (PRC). Although Beijing's actions in Antarctica may not overtly violate the Antarctic Treaty (AT), they effectively undermine its principles and, by extension, Australia's strategic interests. Currently, the PRC is adeptly navigating the AT System to challenge the status quo without explicitly breaching the treaty. China's domestic policies, which merge civil and military sectors, appear to contravene the spirit of the AT's military prohibitions, even if they have not yet resulted in direct military activity on the continent. This evolving dynamic underscores the pressing need for Australia to safeguard the existing Antarctic status quo. With robust Australian foreign and security prioritization, the AT can counter Beijing's growing ambitions, which may directly impact Australian interests. We must protect and uphold the principles of the AT. With diverse domestic and international priorities, Australia must not neglect Antarctica, as Beijing continues to exploit the strategic gap left by our limited focus. Australia, with its rich history and commitment to Antarctica, must assert its role as an Antarctic claimant and clarify that China's presence is contingent on Australian and other claimants' cooperation. It's time for Australia to lead in Antarctica and protect our strategic interests.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Australia, Asia-Pacific, and Antarctica

155. A "new Washington consensus"

Author:
Johannes Späth
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
This oiip trend report delves into the shift in the U.S. and the EU towards protectionist foreign trade policies, diverging from traditional free trade principles. Despite initial expectations of a return to free trade under President Joe Biden, the administration has maintained and expanded protectionist measures, emphasizing a labor-centered approach with import tariffs. This departure is situated within a broader global context, reflecting a growing alignment on economic security policies and strategic autonomy between the transatlantic partners. The phenomenon, termed "polite protectionism," reveals bipartisan support, influencing upcoming elections. The text elaborates on the evolving dynamics of global trade, highlighting the multifaceted motivations and consequences of the contemporary protectionist trend.
Topic:
Free Trade, Trade, Protectionism, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

156. Russia 2024: Making or Breaking the System

Author:
Laetitia Spetschinsky
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
In 2024, Russia is poised for Putin’s fifth term amid a lackluster presidential election. The political landscape leans towards conservatism, emphasizing protection against internal dissent. Putin’s focus on family values and the crackdown on LGBTQ rights underscores a nationalist agenda. Internationally, Russia aims to defend Russian-speaking communities and expand alliances, particularly in BRICS. The pivotal year presents challenges in territorial acquisition, maintaining the war economy, and preserving national unity. Putin’s legacy hinges on navigating these challenges and proclaiming a strategic victory in the face of Western pressures.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, BRICS, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

157. Chinese foreign policy in 2024: crisis management and global governance

Author:
Thomas Eder
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
This Trend Report examines key aspects of Chinese foreign policy in 2024, emphasizing three critical questions: the Taiwan situation, China’s stance in the Ukraine conflict, and its global governance reform proposals. The analysis suggests that the likelihood of a Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan remains low due to electoral outcomes and various deterrent factors. China is expected to intensify non-physical threats. Economic considerations, including reliance on exports and partnerships with Europe, deter China from escalating support for Russia. The "Global South" is likely to support China’s global governance reforms, driven by resentment against perceived US double standards. European decision-makers are advised to align strategies with China’s nuanced approach, emphasizing reassurances on Taiwan, clear red lines on Russia, and increased engagement with the "Global South" while upholding UN principles.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Governance, Crisis Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
China and Asia

158. The OSCE in Zeitenwende: How to keep the Organization on the radar screen?

Author:
Loïc Simonet
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
After a decade of turmoil in Ukraine, the OSCE faces a critical moment marked by internal deadlocks and external challenges. The absolute priority, on the way forward to the 50th anniversary of the Helsinki Final Act, is to prevent the Organization from loosing its remaining visibility. A concerted effort to redefine the organization’s purpose is imperative, but this rests in the hands of the participating States, whose active support remains all too rare. Returning to “basics” and focusing on core competencies will be essential. The OSCE can still shape a renewed "Helsinki Plus" for European security, but we need to hurry before our leaders reinvent the wheel.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, OSCE, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Europe

159. Japan’s Expanding Diplomatic and Military Horizons

Author:
Erik Isaksson
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
In 2023, Japan was on a steady trajectory toward a greater military and diplomatic footprint on the world stage, having just announced a new National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and a Defense Buildup Program in December 2022. These were part of a long-term effort to bolster Japan’s military capabilities and international profile, motivated by a ruling party that has sought these goals since its founding in 1955. Particularly since the start of the war in Ukraine these domestic motivations have gained in relevance by virtue of deteriorating international security. In 2024, we are likely to see Japan further develop its military capabilities, military exports and assistance, partly driven by hard security concerns, and partly by these domestic motivations. These motivations can in turn be understood as an effort to boost Japan’s international status.
Topic:
Diplomacy, National Security, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

160. From “as long as it takes” to “as long as we can”: will the West abandon Ukraine?

Author:
Loïc Simonet
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
Ukraine starts 2024 on a military stalemate. Sustaining its war effort critically depends on increasing Ukraine allies’ – especially Europe – manufacturing capacity. Without continued Western aid, Ukraine cannot win this war. Both in the U.S. and in Europe, though, the momentum for supporting Ukraine “as long as it takes” seems to be waning, especially since the eruption of violence in the Middle East partly took Ukraine off the media screens. Continuing to steadily contain Russia is the only option for now. Ukraine’s future, but also the West’s credibility, are at stake.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Foreign Aid, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

161. Happy Election Year!

Author:
Loïc Simonet
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
Billions of voters in 77 countries will go to the polls in 2024. Some of these elections will transform key nations’ foreign policies and might durably shape international relations. In many countries, though, elections are just a folding screen for authoritarian regimes. Even in advanced democracies, citizens’ disillusionment seems to give illiberalism a lifeline. The risk is also high that polls across the globe this year will be a ‘prime target’ for disinformation, ‘fake news’, conspiracy theory and cyber attacks.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Elections, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

162. The Gaza War – Affective Polarization and the Future of Democracy

Author:
Cengiz Günay
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The terrible terrorist attacks of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent War in Gaza have not only affected the Middle East, but they have also had a disruptive impact on Western democracies. Divisions between those who support Israel’s fight against Islamist terrorism and those who the foreground the sufferings of Palestinian civilians have overlapped with deep affective polarization in many societies. The two positions seem to be irreconcilable and leave little to no room for empathy and dialogue. This report highlights a growing overlap between the perception of international conflicts and domestic polarization over identity issues and values.
Topic:
Democracy, Conflict, Polarization, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

163. New global (dis)order – about a world that frightens us

Author:
Vedran Džihić
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
This report provides an analysis of the shifting global landscape characterized by the dissolution of the post-Cold War normality into a perpetual state of crisis. It examines the intertwining of emotional politics with power dynamics, the escalating competition between democracies and autocracies, and the looming dilemma between war and peace. The report underscores the rise of emotional narratives in shaping geopolitical tensions, the emergence of a bipolar world order between democracies and authoritarian regimes, and the existential threat posed by escalating conflicts. It concludes by urging for a renewed commitment to democratic values and concerted efforts to navigate the turbulent global landscape of 2024.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, and International Order
Political Geography:
Global Focus

164. Navigating Extremism: Safeguarding Europe’s Religious Sites amidst Shifting Political Landscapes

Author:
Annika Scharnagl and Daniela Pisoiu
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
This report highlights the increase in violence against religious institutions in Europe, particularly affecting Jewish and Muslim communities following conflicts such as the Israel-Hamas war. The report also notes a correlation with the rise of right-wing factions, indicating a concerning trend towards discriminatory beliefs in society. It is concluded that urgent scholarly and policy interventions are necessary to address these challenges. This emphasises the need for comprehensive interfaith dialogues and educational initiatives to mitigate emerging threats and uphold the values of religious freedom and social cohesion in contemporary European societies.
Topic:
Violent Extremism, Far Right, Social Cohesion, Protection, Muslims, and Jews
Political Geography:
Europe

165. Outlook 2030 Brief: The U.S. and International Education

Author:
Allan E. Goodman and Mirka Martel
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:
For over a century, the United States has been the leading destination for international students. Unlike higher education systems elsewhere, the U.S. maintains a decentralized public and private tertiary education system where international students may apply and enroll at the state, city, and local levels. This annual brief presents key trends in academic mobility to the United States, comparing annual findings to our projections, and suggestions for campus planning to accommodate the anticipated growth in international students.
Topic:
Education, Higher Education, Students, and International Exchange
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

166. Spring 2024 Snapshot on International Educational Exchange

Author:
Mirka Martel
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:
The Spring 2024 Snapshot on International Educational Exchange continues the commitment of the Institute of International Education (IIE) to map the current state of international educational exchange to and from the United States. The report presents data from 662 U.S. higher education institutions in two sections: (1) current trends in international students studying at U.S. institutions in spring 2024 and recruitment patterns for prospective students and (2) the realities of U.S. study abroad ahead of academic year 2024/25.
Topic:
Education, Students, International Exchange, and Academic Exchange
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

167. China’s Responsibility, and Ours: The Persecution and Neglect of Stateless North Korean Children

Author:
Rob York, Hannah Cole, and Kaylin Kim
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
What happens to the children of North Korean women who are born in China? What happens when they remain in China, or when they escape to other countries? It is believed that as many as 300,000 North Koreans have fled the country—most of them since the famine of the 1990s, and most of them women. To address China’s “bare branches”—its much larger population of young men than young women—North Korean women are often sold to young Chinese men as brides. The children of these brides will be born stateless, lack legal rights, and face the ever-present danger of their mothers’ deportation back to North Korea because they are considered illegal immigrants in China. These unique challenges persist, despite China being a party to the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child, among other international treaties. Even those children that eventually escape to third-party countries are haunted by their status, as their statelessness caused legal hindrances to their ability to settle and, specifically in South Korea, deprives them of government assistance. This study documents the treatment of “stateless” children born to North Korean and Chinese parents. It delineates the factors that contribute to their mistreatment—China’s unwillingness to anger the North Korean government, South Korea’s growing disinterest in North Korean defectors, and a lack of formal networks for North Korean defectors elsewhere. It further finds that, with China openly hostile toward “meddling” in its internal affairs, the most likely source of relief for these children will be a change in attitudes among South Koreans, the United States, and their allies and partners, resulting in conscious effort by their governments and civil societies to help them, both financially and in assisting with their assimilation.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Children, and Statelessness
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and North Korea

168. Taiwan Strait’s Echo in Korean Peninsula Security and the US-ROK Alliance

Author:
Yerin Yoon
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
In recent years, the geopolitical landscape of East Asia has undergone significant shifts, with the Taiwan Strait emerging as a pivotal point of great power competition and regional instability. This paper delves into the intricate dynamics in this evolving scenario, examining the multifaceted implications of Taiwan contingencies and their ripple effects on the security of the Korean Peninsula and the longstanding US-ROK alliance. This study highlights the need for Korea to build strategic plans for a Taiwan contingency by examining the correlation between plausible scenarios and the security challenges of the Korean Peninsula. This paper explores the broader implications of a Taiwan contingency within the context of great power rivalry and international relations. Moreover, it analyzes specific scenarios related to the Korean Peninsula that could unfold around Taiwan, such as maritime blockades and potential Chinese armed attacks on Taiwanese territory. It then emphasizes the influence of these scenarios on the Korean Peninsula, revealing a complex web of economic security, diplomatic, and military challenges. The article thereafter turns its attention to the US-ROK alliance essential to regional security in East Asia. This analysis examines the strategic ramifications of the relocation of US Forces Korea (USFK) and the possible engagement of the ROK military to assess the potential responses by the US-ROK alliance to the Taiwan crisis. It also highlights how crucial it is to comprehend each of the points of view held by the US and the ROK, underscoring the complex intricacies of the alliance. Finally, the paper proposes strategic policy recommendations to enhance Korea’s role in regional security. This includes strategies for maritime security, military readiness against conventional threats, and the strengthening of trilateral relationships with the US and Japan, providing a proactive roadmap for Korea’s foreign and defense policy.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Geopolitics, Alliance, Strategic Competition, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Taiwan, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

169. Gender in Strategic Competition: A Non-Traditional Strategy for Building Resilience in the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Charity Borg
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
Today’s era is defined by strategic competition with “autocrats [who] are working overtime to undermine democracy and export a model of governance marked by repression at home and coercion abroad.”[1] The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is the leading autocratic force, operating with both the intent to reshape the democratic rules-based international order and the resources to advance those aims. States interested in upholding the international rules-based order must enhance their ability to withstand PRC coercion and invest in cultivating a values-based security alliance against the spread of authoritarianism. International collaboration on the Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) agenda offers a low-cost, high-return opportunity to bolster national and regional resistance to authoritarian coercion while building a coalition of like-minded allies and partners. Increasing national resilience and building alliances that center on enhancing the security of women is a data-backed approach that ensures elevated state stability, democracy, and economic prosperity while increasing the likelihood of a coalition’s willingness to defend the current international rules-based order from those who seek to dismantle it. An overwhelming body of empirical analysis demonstrates a significant correlation between the security of women and the democratic or authoritarian tendencies of a state. That same analysis also finds that women’s security is a precondition for a state’s level of democracy. Otherwise stated, countries with higher levels of gender equality are more democratic, less corrupt, and more stable. Whereas “states with higher levels of violence against women are less peaceful [internally and] internationally, less compliant with international norms, and less likely to have good relations with neighboring states,” they are also more likely to align with autocratic governance structures.[1] Authoritarian states such as the PRC understand the benefits of empowered societies, which is why their actions on domestic and international fronts actively seek to suppress women. They fear that like-minded allies and partners will successfully improve security for fifty percent of the population and, as a result, will ultimately tip the scales of power and influence to preserve the values-based international order they desire to uproot. Interest and investment in the WPS agenda are growing around the globe, but not fast enough. Thus far, 18 Indo-Pacific states and one regional organization have sought meaningful engagement and integration of the WPS agenda by various means, opening a door for cooperation across the spectrum of civil, diplomatic, and military security cooperation engagements.[2] However, several transformative policy and operational measures must be implemented to achieve the desired end states. To be transformative and enable lasting change in governmental and national behavior, the thoughtful implementation of the WPS agenda at all levels, from national and subnational to the community and household, is required. First, domestic and international policymakers need to clearly define the security of women as a national security imperative. Second, implementing WPS in the defense sector should focus on training defense personnel to apply a gender perspective to enhance mission effectiveness. Last, those advancing WPS must take an inclusive, context-specific, and localized approach to its integration. To defend the current rules-based international order, like-minded countries must accelerate change and follow through by investing in women’s security.
Topic:
Security, Investment, Strategic Competition, Resilience, Gender, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

170. North Korea is Winning the Information War

Author:
Jonathan Corrado, Chelsie Alexandre, and Alexander Tufto
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
The outside world has been presented with two contradictory images of North Korea’s younger generation. In the outside media, youth are portrayed as rebellious and radical, ignoring the Kim regime’s increasingly harsh crackdowns on foreign media and trends, and instead toting the latest South Korean fashion trends and adopting South Korean lingo. Meanwhile, state propaganda pushes the narrative that North Korean youth are extremely devoted to Kim Jong Un and the regime. Both conceptions of North Korea’s younger generation fail to acknowledge a more complex reality. Kim Jong Un understands the importance of winning over the younger generation to ensure his regime’s survival. Since coming into power, Kim has increased the severity of punishments for importing, distributing, and consuming foreign media. This strangled information environment amplifies the efficacy of a youth loyalty campaign designed to bear hug the younger generation. As a consequence, when compared with older cohorts, North Korean youth have a more favorable view of the regime, juche ideology, and Kim Jong Un himself. In short, the campaign is working. A reinvigorated foreign media distribution strategy is needed to break the impasse and win the battle over hearts and minds. Despite the dangers, North Koreans remain highly interested in foreign media. Research shows that those who consume tend to feel more fondly about South Korea and view the North Korean regime critically. Foreign media provides a powerful basis to cross check regime propaganda and can even lay the foundation for a shared understanding of concepts like human rights and civil society. A reinvigorated strategy should focus on content curation and innovative dissemination methods to maximize utility and minimize blowback for end users in North Korea.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Media, Propaganda, and Information Warfare
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

171. Enhancing the Cooperation between the US and Its Allies in the Mekong Subregion

Author:
Sach Nguyen
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
The Mekong subregion is experiencing heightened geopolitical competition between the US and China, representing a clash between the international rules-based order and a China-led order. While the US and its allies advocate for the rules-based order, China’s intentions for its own order in the region are debated. China’s increased presence and influence in the Mekong subregion, particularly through upstream control of the Mekong water, reflect its pursuit of this order. In response, the US and its allies, such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, have strengthened cooperation with one another to promote a rules-based system. Despite existing coordination, there is potential for further collaboration to enhance their role in mainland Southeast Asia. Stability and prosperity in the Mekong subregion are being challenged. Weakening international norms in governing transboundary waters threaten downstream countries’ security and livelihoods, exacerbated by climate change-induced droughts. China’s growing engagement in the region aims to establish its sphere of influence, primarily through economic development projects like dams and railways, raising concerns over environmental impacts and expanding Chinese influence. Additionally, non-traditional security threats such as the COVID-19 pandemic, cyber security, and human trafficking further complicate the region’s situation. The engagement of the US and its allies in the Mekong subregion is multifaceted, driven by various interests but united in countering China’s growing influence. The US, through initiatives like the Lower Mekong Initiative (LMI) and later the Mekong-US Partnership, seeks to maintain its relevance and preeminence in the region. Japan, South Korea, and Australia also engage with the subregion, for economic interests and to counterbalance China. Japan, for instance, aims to establish production bases and balance China’s influence through high-standard infrastructure projects. South Korea focuses on economic development and diversification of trade amid US-China tensions, while Australia prioritizes promoting a rules-based order and addressing non-traditional security threats. Despite differences in approach, the US and its allies collaborate through platforms like the Friends of the Mekong and initiatives such as the Trilateral Partnership for Infrastructure Investment in the Indo-Pacific, aimed at countering China’s Belt and Road Initiative. However, challenges remain in realizing these initiatives, particularly in engaging the private sector and ensuring concrete outcomes amidst competing interests and complex negotiations. Recommendations for enhancing cooperation between the US and its allies in the Mekong subregion include strengthening international norms and rules, expanding economic infrastructure projects, focusing on non-traditional security issues, and fostering track 1.5 and track 2 diplomacy to promote mutual understanding and collaboration among all stakeholders, including governments, academia, businesses, and civil society organizations. These efforts, facilitated by the US and its allies, can contribute to a more stable and prosperous Mekong subregion.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Geopolitics, International Order, and Competition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, United States of America, and Mekong River

172. New Caledonia and French Polynesia: New Opportunities Amid Great Power Competition

Author:
Raihaamana Tevahitua
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
New Caledonia and French Polynesia, like to other Oceanian nations, are gaining heightened significance within the Indo-Pacific framework. Consequently, both non-sovereign territories have improved leverage to assert their priorities in relation to the central French state. Simultaneously, they are increasingly engaging with foreign partners under the guidance of France. This paper offers recommendations for how these territories can expand their influence in this era of Great Power competition.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Geopolitics, and International Competition
Political Geography:
New Caledonia, Indo-Pacific, Oceania, and French Overseas Territories

173. The Chain of Harm: Designing Evidence-based, Locally Led Information Integrity Programming

Author:
Lisa Reppell and Brittany Hamzy
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:
The Chain of Harm is a framework that breaks down the challenges of disinformation, misinformation, and dangerous speech (DMDS) into five interrelated stages (actor, message, mode of dissemination, interpreter, and risk). Each stage describes a discrete intervention point to disrupt the ultimate manifestation of harm. This five-stage approach supports the design of multi-layered programming that more effectively promotes healthy information environments around moments of critical social and civic importance, with particular emphasis on designing programming that is responsive to the different experiences of diverse populations.
Topic:
Elections, Cybersecurity, Disinformation, and Misinformation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

174. Engaging Indigenous Peoples in Elections

Author:
Rebecca Aaberg
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:
About 5 percent of the world’s population identify as Indigenous, including more than 5,000 cultures that speak over 4,000 languages. The first global report on Indigenous Peoples and elections since the adoption of the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, “Engaging Indigenous Peoples in Elections: Identifying International Good Practices through Case Studies in Guatemala, Kenya, and Nepal” is a collaboration of the Endorois Indigenous Women Empowerment Network (EIWEN – Kenya), Fundación Guillermo Toriello (FGT – Guatemala), the National Indigenous Disabled Women Association Nepal (NIDWAN), and the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES). Developed with support from the Swedish International Development Agency (Sida) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the report provides new insights into the political life of Indigenous Peoples globally, grounded in primary source evidence from Guatemala, Kenya, and Nepal, as well as interviews with international experts. A collaboration between IFES and Indigenous Peoples Organizations, the report includes recommendations for duty-bearers such as election management bodies (EMBs) and rights holders. The report contains sections on international human rights frameworks; voter registration; voter education; polling; representation, candidacy, and leadership; and intersectionality and indigeneity. Barriers experienced globally by Indigenous Peoples are provided for each section, for example: Exclusion of traditional and customary Indigenous institutions from state decision-making; The need to travel long distances or through difficult terrain to register; Lack of information about elections in Indigenous languages, including Indigenous sign languages; Polling stations often inaccessible to Indigenous persons with disabilities and lack assistive devices for voting, reducing access to secret balloting; Discrimination against Indigenous candidates; Scant representation of Indigenous Peoples, including Indigenous persons with disabilities, Indigenous women, and young Indigenous persons, in local and national legislative offices.
Topic:
Governance, Elections, Indigenous, and Engagement
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, South Asia, Nepal, Central America, and Guatemala

175. Unequal Burdens: Corruption’s Impacts on People with Intersectional Identities in Lebanon

Author:
Elizabeth Reiter Dettmer and Jay Feghali
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:
Lebanon, once celebrated for its cultural vibrancy and economic prosperity, now grapples with embedded corruption and dire prospects for reform. Lebanon’s multiple layers of social, confessional, ideological, economic, and cultural identities are governed by varied laws or rules. This creates space for corruption to combine with discriminatory practices. This assessment, Unequal Burdens: Corruption's Impacts on People with Intersectional Identities in Lebanon, focuses on corruption and its effects to measure how perceptions and experiences differ among marginalized groups and to identify any unique effects that people with intersectional identities encounter, with a focus on perspectives from outside Beirut, including Tripoli, Akkar, Baalbek, Bekaa, and surrounding areas. In 2020, IFES conducted an intersectionality assessment, Identity, and Politics in Lebanon, which found that marginalized groups in Lebanon experience multiple levels of exclusion based on social identities, including gender, disability, age, religion, sexual orientation, and refugee status. Individuals with intersectional identities are even more significantly impacted by the complexity and inherent inequality of Lebanon’s political and social systems. Lebanon has 18 officially recognized religious sects that are governed by 15 personal status laws enforced by religious courts. Social identity and the role of religion in politics both contribute to conflict and lack of consensus. These are compounded by socio-economic factors, including an imbalance in access to services – especially outside the capital, low exposure to economic and educational opportunities, limited inclusion in public service, and youth unemployment. Legal obstacles created by personal status laws and the discriminatory application of other laws seriously hinder the ability of marginalized groups to act as full and equal citizens. In early 2020, the Lebanese government introduced a new anti-corruption law and began work on a new National Anti-Corruption Strategy. Despite the new laws, Transparency International’s 2022 Corruption Perceptions Index placed Lebanon 150th of 180 countries, a decline from its rank of 128th in 2012. IFES’ assessment found that corruption is disproportionately impacting people from marginalized groups. Research identified the following key findings: Corruption on the Community Level; Corruption on the Individual Level; Impact of Corruption and Discrimination on Marginalized Groups; Impacts of Corruption on Civic Participation; Corruption as a Facilitating Factor for Participation in Public Life; Corruption as a Hindering Factor for Participation in Public Life.
Topic:
Corruption, Politics, Reform, and Intersectionality
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

176. Understanding and Interrupting Authoritarian Collaboration

Author:
Christina Cottiero and Cassandra Emmons
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:
For many decades, autocrats have been considered less cooperative than democrats in international politics. While researchers endeavored to learn how international democratic practices spread through political, economic, and social networks, little attention was paid to autocratic collaboration tendencies. However, growing bodies of evidence from human rights and democracy support to international security and international development demonstrate that authoritarian regimes are collaborating through formal organizations and informal channels to stabilize or entrench their rule, disrupt democratic civil society, and even extend the reach of repressive institutions beyond state boundaries. Autocrats face common threats, including: pro-democracy groups and dissenters at home; stigmatization and illegitimacy of their authoritarian governance tactics abroad; conditionalities on critically needed aid or loans that prioritize democratic governance structures and policies; and evolving and increased security threats. In response, authoritarian regimes are sharing information; working to legitimate (or de-stigmatize) repressive practices; supporting one another as they weather shocks and crises resulting from international integration (economic or political); and even lending resources for co-opting and managing critical constituencies. These and other tactics allow them to entrench authoritarian practices. To enable the democracy support community to effectively bolster democratic resilience in the face of growing authoritarianism, we must better understand these practices. This paper provides an overview of modern authoritarian collaboration, analyzing its purposes and methods. It goes on to consider implications for international order and suggests that democracy defenders challenge pernicious authoritarian collaboration, for instance by leveraging their own transnational networks to disrupt authoritarian collaboration on surveillance and repression; provide compelling counter-narratives and debunk disinformation through effective civic education campaigns; and international standard setting and rule enforcement that cuts off authoritarian actors from financial and other resources.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Resilience, Collaboration, Autocracy, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

177. Trust and Remuneration for Elected Representatives

Author:
Cassandra Emmons, Jordan Shipley, and Silja Paasilinna
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:
The rise of the Aragalaya (“The Struggle” in Sinhala) protest movement in Sri Lanka, triggered by the government’s defaulting on its debts in April 2022, highlighted the public’s belief that some of its elected officials are untrustworthy and corrupt. Demand for reforms is high; a supermajority of survey respondents in Sri Lanka in 2023 agreed that enforcing anti-corruption mechanisms equally across political parties (76 percent) and having an impartial judiciary (79 percent) and strong institutions with politically neutral or independent structures (72 percent) would increase their confidence in elected officials. Similar dissatisfaction with elected representatives and demand for reform and accountability can be observed in many countries that have been reeling from overall dissatisfaction with and, in some places, abandonment of, democracy. In hopes of building more resilient democracies that are bolstered by democratic trust, the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) undertook this research project. It compares the formal and informal remuneration that elected officials receive in Ecuador, Nepal, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka. This comparative research identifies 16 categories of benefits given to and restrictions placed on elected officials. These serve as a menu of options for others. The research also uncovers two ongoing challenges in rebuilding trust in elected officials via remuneration reform: constituents’ perceptions that officials receive more financial compensation than they actually do, and officials’ receipt of informal benefits. This research leads us to make five recommendations to countries considering remuneration reform or reflecting on their current practices: Ensure reasonable remuneration that is responsive to economic and other pressures. Keep the public informed about remuneration practices and, importantly, any changes to them. Require asset and income disclosure to increase transparency around officials’ earnings. Limit benefits extended to officials’ family members and prohibit nepotism. Limit unnecessary international travel and manage perceptions of abuse. Countries that strive to incorporate these reforms into their legal frameworks or common practices may help build a virtuous cycle of remuneration for and earned trust in elected officials. Improved trust may ultimately contribute to stronger, more resilient democracies.
Topic:
Corruption, Reform, Elections, Accountability, and Remuneration
Political Geography:
South Asia, Sri Lanka, and Global Focus

178. Beyond the EU enlargement paradox

Author:
René Cuperus and Saskia Hollander
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This Clingendael report analyses the so-called ‘EU enlargement paradox’, which refers to the notion that EU enlargement is both inevitable and impossible at the same time. It is inevitable for geostrategic reasons, given Putin’s Russian imperial revisionism. But at the same time, EU enlargement is impossible for political institutional reasons. At the moment, neither the eligible candidate countries, nor the EU at large, nor the electorates in key EU Member States are ‘enlargement fit’. How could the Dutch government deal with this paradox? This paper aims to set the scene for the forthcoming debate in the Netherlands on the future of EU enlargement. To serve as a basis for risk analysis, it provides a systematic overview of various trade-offs on five policy domains: 1) geopolitics, security and defence; 2) rule of law and democracy; 3) economy and budget; 4) migration and free movement of persons; and 5) EU institutional structure. The report draws on findings from the latest Clingendael Barometer survey, which analysed Dutch public opinion towards enlargement along these dimensions.
Topic:
Public Opinion, European Union, Regional Integration, Survey, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Netherlands

179. A scramble for legitimacy: Iraq’s political elites since the October 2019 protests

Author:
Marsin Alshamary
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Iraqi political elites exhibited a variety of responses to the 2019 October protests, the largest demonstrations in post-2003 Iraq. Muqtada al-Sadr, a cleric-turned politician and leader of the Sadrist movement, vacillated between attempting to co-opt and repressing the protests. Other Shi’a political elites portrayed the predominantly Shi’a protestors as foreign agents and encouraged violent repression. Yet others who urged reform and response went largely unheard. Iraq’s political system emerged largely unscathed from the protests, even though the threat of recurrence inspired the new government to undertake limited service-oriented reforms. However, traditional political elites continue to view reformists, including the politicians that emerged from the protest movement, as illegitimate usurpers of governing power they feel rightly belongs to them.
Topic:
Reform, Domestic Politics, Protests, Elites, Muqtada al-Sadr, and Shiite
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

180. Freedom isn’t Free: A cost-benefit analysis of support for Ukraine

Author:
Bob Deen and Roman de Baedts
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
More than ten years after the Russian annexation of Crimea and two years after the large-scale invasion, Ukraine is still holding its own against Russia. This is not only due to the courage and efforts of the Ukrainians themselves, but also thanks to the extensive military, economic, and financial support packages from Europe and the US. For 2024, the government had allocated three billion euros for military support to Ukraine in the fight against Russian aggression and also pledged an additional three billion for 2025. Following the UK, France, and Germany, the Netherlands has entered into a ten-year security cooperation agreement with Ukraine to ensure long-term support. The recently released AIV briefing note and a recent parliamentary letter also advocate for sustained support. However, this Western support is no longer a certainty or uncontested. Particularly in the US, but also in some European NATO countries, calls to halt support to Ukraine are slowly gaining more traction. The American support package of sixty billion dollars was stuck in the House of Representatives for months, causing significant difficulties for the Ukrainian armed forces. President Biden has scaled back his rhetoric from “as long as it takes” to “as long as we can”. New commitments for new aid to Ukraine stalled at the end of 2023 (with a nearly ninety percent drop), while promised ammunition quantities fell far short. A warning from French President Macron that a Western military intervention should not be ruled out received little support from his foreign counterparts. Although the issue of Western ‘boots on the ground’ also requires further attention, it is not addressed within this memo, and ‘support’ encompasses both economic and material assistance, but without the deployment of Western troops in Ukraine. Following Putin’s ‘election victory’ in March, the Kremlin escalated its war rhetoric. Government officials are now openly discussing ‘war,’ whereas previously, using that word could land one in prison. This fits into the rhetoric where NATO, rather than Ukraine, is portrayed as the aggressor. Additionally, the Russian Ministry of Defence announced the formation of two new combined arms Army Corps and accelerated the recruitment of new military personnel. Meanwhile, the Russian war industry is gearing up, producing large quantities of ammunition and equipment for the Russian war effort. The extensive import of artillery ammunition from North Korea and drones from Iran, among other capabilities, further complements Russian stocks. The consequences on the battlefield are already noticeable, as seen in the loss of the city of Avdiivka in February, and developments along the front since. Meanwhile, pressure on Ukrainian troops at the front is mounting. In an interview at the end of March, President Zelensky stated that Ukraine will have to cede more land if Western material support continues to be lacking. The renewed Northern front after the second Russian Kharkiv offensive is likely to further stretch Ukrainian defences and resilience in the near future. Despite overwhelming support in the Dutch parliament for continued support for Ukraine, there are nonetheless questions about the duration and scope of future assistance. The question regarding the costs and benefits of providing political, economic, and military support by the Dutch government is extremely relevant in this context. This constitutes more than a simple calculation where profit or loss is expressed in Euros. It also involves security risks and geopolitical and moral costs and benefits that cannot always be quantified in one-dimensional figures. It is therefore essential to adopt a broader understanding of costs and benefits, reasoned from the perspective of Dutch national security interests and the impact of international support on the outcomes of the conflict. An important consideration here is the extent to which support for Ukraine contributes to a military victory, a military loss, or a protracted conflict.
Topic:
Armed Conflict, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

181. Exploring the risk of violent extremism along the border between Northern Benin and Nigeria

Author:
Kars de Bruijne
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
For over a decade, researchers and politicians feared a link between extremist groups in the Sahel and the Lake Chad Basin. Since 2014, studies have pointed to Benin’s unfortunate potential to serve as a geographical hinge. So far, evidence has been largely absent. While violent extremism in northern Benin is typically regarded as a “spillover” from the Sahel our report “Dangerous Liaisons: Exploring the risk of violent extremism along the border between northern Benin and Nigeria” warns that a large violent extremism problem has emerged in North West Nigeria that now threatens Benin. In the cross-border Borgou region (Benin), a collaboration between Nigerian and Sahelian insurgents is in the making along Benin’s border with Nigeria. These signals are extremely concerning, and action is needed. Nigeria and Benin should cease the d’entente between Talon and Tinubu and intensify cooperation. This should take the form of information exchange, arranging hot-pursuit and consider joint action. But also Western donors and programming need to break stove-piped responses in the Sahel and Lake Chad respectively. The two conflicts appear to merge and a more united and flexible response is needed.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Violent Extremism, and Borders
Political Geography:
Africa, Nigeria, and Benin

182. Israel against Iran: regional conflict scenarios in 2024

Author:
Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Four scenarios capture the main dynamics of conflict between Israel and the US on the one hand, and Iran and the axis of resistance on the other. They are: ‘a fight for the status quo’, ‘shifting red lines’, ‘limited war’ and ‘total war’. The first two scenarios amount to muddling through under the permanent threat of escalation, which could happen due to unintended yet possibly catastrophic incidents. The more warlike scenarios signify a shift to high-intensity war across large parts, or all, of the region. As 7 October 2023 created tighter linkages between the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories and the regional conflict between Israel/US and Iran, the violent dynamics of either issue can trigger each scenario. Meanwhile, scenario pathways lie so close to each other that tipping points can swiftly transform one scenario into another. Together, the scenarios point to the need to develop conflict prevention measures between Israel, the US and Iran – such as hotlines, protocols that spell out red lines and tolerable action/reaction bandwidths or even demilitarised zones – between now and the US presidential elections in November. The core strategic objectives of the conflict parties suggest that progress is possible. Israel seeks to restore the security of its northern border without an all-out war against Hezbollah or Iran. It also intends to continue occupation. It does not care enough about normalisation with Saudi Arabia to discontinue annexation, which means it will not alter the regional security order to an extent that could truly threaten Iran. Tehran, in turn, seeks good relations with the Persian Gulf states, recognition as a regional power and the isolation of Israel. The US wishes to uphold Israel’s security by reducing the risk of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, but without triggering a region-wide, high-intensity conflict. A precarious balance might be achieved, for example if Israel halts the in-your-face elements of its expanding occupation, a reinforced UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) takes up position on both sides of the Israeli-Lebanese border, US sanction enforcement against Iran is somewhat loosened and the axis of resistance, including Iran, observes a longer-term ceasefire regarding Israel.
Topic:
Security, Conflict, Regional Politics, and Axis of Resistance
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

183. UNDP’s stabilization programme in and around Mosul, 2017–2022

Author:
Hugo de Vries
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Between 2014 and 2017, the occupation of northwestern Iraq by the Islamic State in the Levant and the military campaign to defeat it left chaos and destruction in its wake. Six million people were displaced and damages ran to an estimated USD 88 billion. At the time, the international community swiftly threw its support behind the Iraqi government to reconstruct the affected areas. This paper tells the story of a major programmatic contribution to the reconstruction effort by assessing the rollout, implementation and impact of UNDP’s USD 1,5 billion USD Funding Facility for Stabilization (FFS) with a focus on Mosul. Tracing the frontline as it advanced, the program worked via the private sector to rebuild thousands of houses, water treatment plants, electrical stations, hospitals, schools and other key infrastructure and provided thousands of temporary jobs to people. To accomplish this, it had to negotiate security arrangements, deal with the limited capacity of the Iraqi state and above all, anticipate corruption by different actors. While the FFS was a programmatic success in terms of its own original objectives, one can also argue that the program did not significantly increase trust in the Iraqi government, positively influence Iraq’s political economy or mitigate local conflict dynamics ‘beyond the numbers’ of its concrete deliverables. As the paper has been written by the FFS’s former program coordinator in Mosul, it provides an insider perspective into the operational dynamics of a major UN program.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Infrastructure, United Nations Development Program (UNDP), and Stabilization
Political Geography:
Iraq, United States of America, and Mosul

184. Drivers and strategic puzzles of Saudi modernization

Author:
Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Saudi Arabia’s ‘Vision 2030’ set in motion a large-scale, mainly state-led and top-down modernization agenda to diversify the Saudi economy beyond oil, develop a new national development ethos, reshape Saudi identity and introduce greater lifestyle options while maintaining consolidated rule in the hands of the Al Saud. The envisaged transformation is fully in line with the vested interests of the Saudi monarchy and much of the business elite, as well as some of the country’s younger generations. Vision 2030 builds on earlier change efforts that were only partially successful, but pursues a much broader social agenda in addition to the traditional core economics tenets of prior reform efforts. Another key difference is that its main architect – Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince – has amassed all the essential inputs for transformative change: centralized executive authority, a decent strategy, heaps of money and supportive social constituencies. In the short term, there are no barriers to the realization of Vision 2030 beyond the rapid adjustment that inevitably needs to occur when plans meet reality in a complex environment. However, Vision 2030’s lack of participatory governance modalities, insufficient attention to climate change mitigation and absence of a balanced strategy to promote regional stability represent serious medium-term challenges. Success is likely to require recalibrating these issues in ‘Vision 2040’, or sooner.
Topic:
Development, Governance, Economy, and Modernization
Political Geography:
Middle East and Saudi Arabia

185. Port politics: Strategic autonomy and European ports

Author:
Xiaoxue Martin and Frans-Paul van der Putten
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
European seaports and related logistics are a key part of international trade and logistics. In recent years, foreign involvement by third countries has gained greater significance in this sector, especially where China is concerned. The recent calls for a European port strategy in the European Parliament underline this. Individual Member States and the EU as a whole can actively influence future scenarios by managing the degree of foreign involvement in European seaports and logistics, with special attention for China’s influence. However, a lack of EU cooperation concerning foreign involvement negatively impacts the EU’s strategic autonomy. This limits control over future scenarios. The aim of this report is therefore to conceptualise an EU-wide policy framework for strengthening strategic autonomy in the domain of seaports and related logistics sector systems. China serves as a case study.
Topic:
European Union, Logistics, Strategic Autonomy, and Ports
Political Geography:
China and Europe

186. A Renewed Philippine-United States Alliance

Author:
Julio S. Amador III and Lisa Marie Palma
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The Biden administration should keep in mind that domestic politics bears considerable implications for the alliance. Regarding economic relations, the United States needs to remain committed to policies that diversify supply chains and create opportunities for business and investment projects in the Philippines.
Topic:
Economics, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Investment
Political Geography:
Philippines, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

187. Australia and the Resilient Pacific Islands

Author:
Andrea Gleason
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Australia is committed to delivering at least AUD 700 million in climate finance to the Pacific and investing in climate-resilient infrastructure across the region, including through the Australian Infrastructure Financing Facility for the Pacific.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Infrastructure, Climate Finance, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Australia and Pacific Islands

188. Between a Rock and a Hard Place: ASEAN Amid Sino-US Competition

Author:
William Choong
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
An area in which the United States has gained traction—at China’s expense—are emerging formal and ad hoc plurilateral collaborations between Quad members and Southeast Asian countries.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Multilateralism, Strategic Competition, ASEAN, and Quad Alliance
Political Geography:
China, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

189. Indian Ocean Security Means More Will Be Asked of US Allies

Author:
Benjamin Reilly and Peter Dean
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Ongoing disruptions in the Gulf of Aden and the vulnerability of other key Indian Ocean bottlenecks in the Straits of Hormuz or Malacca... [H]ighlight an inconvenient truth: the country with the most to lose from a disruption of the Indian Ocean today is China...
Topic:
Security, Maritime Commerce, and Economy
Political Geography:
China, India, Australia, West Asia, United States of America, and Indian Ocean

190. Enhancing the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific through Sub-Regional Initiatives: The Case of the BIMP-EAGA Initiative

Author:
Hafiizh Hashim
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Hafiizh Hashim, Head Consultant at Sociable & Co. and Assistant Lecturer Universiti at Brunei Darussalam, explains that "[g]reater US engagement in the BIMP-EAGA [a subregional grouping encompassing states and subnational jurisdiction in eastern Southeast Asia] could deepen US-ASEAN relations" and "find convergence between US and ASEAN Indo-Pacific frameworks."
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, Economics, Environment, ASEAN, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

191. Pacific Perspectives on the US Indo-Pacific Strategy

Author:
Joe-Silem Enlet
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Mr. Joe-Silem Enlet, former Consul General for the Federated States of Micronesia and current PhD Student at the University of Rhode Island, explains that "[t]he Pacific and its ocean people’s heritage need to be featured more prominently in the US Indo-Pacific strategy."
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Economics, and Heritage
Political Geography:
United States of America, Indo-Pacific, and Micronesia

192. From Bandung to Hindutva: How the Palestine Question Shows India’s Alternative Foreign Policy Futures

Author:
Arjun Shankar
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Arjun Shankar, Assistant Professor of Culture and Politics in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, explains how India's ethnonational discourse and abiding commitment to Global South solidarity are both products of the country's anti-colonial struggle but are now clashing in India's approach to the Palestine question.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Solidarity, Global South, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, Ethnonationalism, and Hindutva
Political Geography:
India, Israel, and Palestine

193. Growing Foreign and Security Policy Challenges Face India’s Re-elected Modi Government

Author:
Frank O'Donnell
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Frank O'Donnell, Adjunct Fellow with the East-West Center in Washington and Nonresident Fellow in the Stimson Center South Asia Program, asserts that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces growing challenges in his third term, including Chinese hostilities in the Himalayas, pursuing more peaceful relations with Pakistan, and navigating turbulence in US-India affairs.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Elections, and Narendra Modi
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, India, and United States of America

194. Testing Taiwan’s Democracy

Author:
Dimitar Gueorguiev
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Dimitar D. Gueorguiev, an associate professor of political science at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs and director of Chinese studies at Syracuse University, asserts that “Taiwan’s new government faces rough seas ahead” and with the loss of the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) legislative majority, new President Lai Ching-te “needs to seek compromise with a divided government...”
Topic:
Government, Elections, Democracy, and Lai Ching-te
Political Geography:
Taiwan and Asia

195. The Role of the United States in Just Energy Transition Partnerships in Indonesia and Vietnam

Author:
Melinda Martinus
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Melinda Martinus, Lead Researcher focusing on Climate Change in Southeast Asia and sustainable development at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, explores the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) for Indonesia and Vietnam against the backdrop of the upcoming US presidential election.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Partnerships, Climate Finance, Energy, Climate Justice, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Vietnam, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

196. Japan, the Philippines, and the United States: A New Era of Partnership through Trilateral Defense and Security Cooperation

Author:
Miyoko Taniguchi
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Miyoko Taniguchi, Professor of International Relations and Peace Studies at Miyazaki Municipal University in Japan, explains that the “strengthening of trilateral cooperation [between the United States, Japan, and the Philippines is a significant strategic move to institutionalize the deterrence and response capabilities of US allies and partners, especially to protect the territorial sovereignty in the South China Sea and East China Sea.”
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Sovereignty, Partnerships, Deterrence, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, Philippines, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

197. Strategic Realignments: Assessing the Impact of Taiwan's 2024 Elections on US-China Relations and Indo-Pacific Stability

Author:
Yih-Jye Hwang
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Yih-Jye Hwang, an Assistant Professor of International Relations at Leiden University, details the transformation of US Asia-Pacific policy from strategic ambiguity to a more explicit stance, the Democratic Progressive Party’s Pro-US Stance, and the 'doubt America' theory prevalent among Taiwanese opposition parties.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Elections, Economy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

198. Election 2024 in Pakistan - A Catalyst for Strengthening Global Health Security Partnerships

Author:
Saeed Ahmad
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Saeed Ahmad, a Public Health Coordinator with Pakistan’s Ministry of National Health Services, "explores the impact of Pakistan’s 2024 electoral outcomes on health policy formulation, resource allocation, and continued partnership and engagement with the United States on global health security and sustainable development."
Topic:
Security, Development, Elections, Partnerships, and Public Health
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and United States of America

199. The US Should Enhance Economic Engagement with Taiwan

Author:
Min-Hua Chiang
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Min-Hua Chiang, East-West Center Adjunct Fellow and a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the University of Nottingham’s Taiwan Research Hub, explains "Further strengthening Taiwan’s economy will make it more capable of bearing the financial burden of defending the island against a Chinese invasion…," and this imperative is compounded as Taiwan is “a critical player in America’s competition with China in the global semiconductor industry.”
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Science and Technology, Leadership, Regional Economy, and Economic Engagement
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

200. Enhancing Military Diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific: A US Foreign Area Officer’s Perspective

Author:
Matthew House
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Lt. Col. Matthew House, US Army Foreign Area Officer and EWC Adjunct Fellow, underscores “the pivotal role of military diplomacy in orchestrating significant global events...” and highlights “the invaluable expertise of [Foreign Area Officers] in managing complex international relations."
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Education, Politics, and Military Diplomacy
Political Geography:
North Korea, Vietnam, Southeast Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific