Content Type: Special Report / Topic: International Security

1. Pakistan Security Report 2021

Author:: Safdar Sial, Muhammad Amir Rana, and Najam U Din
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:: While the political and security situation in neighboring Afghanistan is still fluid, concerns are growing inside Pakistan about the possible fallout including in terms of increased insecurity, border tensions, and militant violence. For one, the developments in Afghanistan had already started influencing Pakistan’s militant landscape in 2021 as the year witnessed not only an increase in terrorist attacks by the Pakistani Taliban in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa but also an intensified terrorist violence by Baloch insurgent groups mainly in Balochistan. Meanwhile, Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) province also emerged as one of the key actors of violence and instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan during the year. While the Afghan Taliban find it difficult to convince the world to recognize their government and activate/unfreeze financial channels, they are also finding it increasingly hard to address the domestic challenges mainly those linked to governance, security, and intra-Afghan reconciliation. Despite their repeated promises to not allow anyone to use the Afghan soil against Pakistan, the Afghan Taliban have yet not seriously considered to act against the TTP; except having facilitated the talks between Pakistani government and the TTP which have also not shown any successes so far. Nonetheless, there have been critical statements about Pakistan from some Taliban officials on multiple occasions about Pakistan’s democratic political system as well as fencing of the border by Pakistani security forces. Pakistan has eventually conveyed its concerns to the Afghan interim government about Afghan officials’ repeated efforts to damage the border fencing saying it was observing maximum restraint.
Topic:: Security, National Security, and International Security
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Middle East, and Asia

2. Climate change and security in West Africa

Author:: Peter Schmidt and Robert Muggah
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that climate change will generate alarming consequences for West Africa. A rise in global temperature between 3°C to 6°C by the end of the century (or earlier) is associated with greater irregularity in rainfall, and a delay in the beginning of the rainy season. Another risk involves higher frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, rainstorms, and flooding. According to some models, sea levels could rise by more than 75cm on average by the end of the century, forcing hundreds of millions of people to move, mostly within their own countries, and often to cities.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Migration, and International Security
Political Geography:: Latin America and West Africa

3. Principles for Building Confidence and Stability into National Defenses and International Security – toward sufficient, affordable, robust, and reliable defense postures

Author:: Charles Knight
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:: By bringing military structures into line with defensive political goals, the non-provocation standard facilitates the emergence of trusting, cooperative, peaceful political relations among nations. In contrast, any doctrine and force posture oriented to project power into other countries is provocative — unless reliably restrained by political and organizational structures.
Topic:: Defense Policy, International Security, Armed Forces, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4. Psychological Resilience to Extremism and Violent Extremism

Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hedayah
Abstract:: This report provides an overview of the expert roundtable on the topic of psychological resilience to violent extremism held during mid-2021. It summarizes key highlights and recommendations that experts made during the roundtable. The roundtable identified relevant psychological factors that increase individual resilience to extremism and violent extremism, provided practical recommendations for cognitive and behavioral skills among topics.
Topic:: International Security, Violent Extremism, Psychology, Political Extremism, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5. THE SPECIAL POLICE IN ETHIOPIA

Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:: Like many federal and devolved systems, Ethiopia has both federal and regional security forces. In the last fifteen years, however, Ethiopia’s regional states have established regional special police forces, in addition to the regular regional state police. Established first in Ethiopia’s Somali region in 2007 to conduct counter-insurgency operations and riot control, special police quickly spread to all other regions of Ethiopia. The role and status of special police forces in Ethiopia remain contested. Resembling paramilitary forces, the regional special police units are well armed and receive military training. They are rapidly growing in size and have successfully recruited senior (former) army officers into their ranks. Special police forces have become deeply involved in Ethiopia’s interregional conflicts and border disputes, most notably in the current conflict in Tigray. They have even been involved in international operations in Somalia and Sudan and internal coup attempts. They have also been linked to severe human rights abuses. While federal and regional governments are empowered to establish their respective police forces, no specific legal provision deals with the special police force. As trust in the federal government waned in many regional capitals, states have linked the mandate of their special police forces with self-government. Still, special police have overstepped that boundary and engaged in activities, such as international border security and settling interregional disputes, that fall within the exclusive mandate of the federal government and federal forces. This report explores the origins and growth of the special police and its roles in current Ethiopia. It investigates the force’s constitutional and legal ambiguity and places the special police within the broader debate over Ethiopian federalism. Finally, it suggests several models that Ethiopia could adopt to regulate its proliferating special police forces. A failure to do so may have dire consequences for the future of the country.
Topic:: Human Rights, Regional Cooperation, International Security, Police, Legal Sector, and Human Rights Violations
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

6. Pentagon Fuel Use, Climate Change, and the Costs of War

Author:: Neta C. Crawford
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:: If climate change is a “threat multiplier,” as some national security experts and members of the military argue, how does the US military reduce climate change caused threats? Or does war and the preparation for it increase those risks?
Topic:: Defense Policy, Climate Change, War, International Security, Military Spending, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

7. Climate and Security in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:: Adriana Erthal Abdenur, Giovanna Kuele, and Alice Amorim
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: The connections between climate change and security are complex. The interaction with other factors and the speed and type of social change vary across different contexts. Climate change rarely, if ever, causes insecurity directly; intervening variables – most of them related to governance, development and resource management – mediate this relationship. The articles in this volume explore how climate contributes to insecurity in the LAC region. They resulted from a partnership between the Igarapé Institute and the Instituto Clima e Sociedade (iCS), both in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, with the support of the German Embassy in Brasília. This partnership yielded a workshop, held in July 2019, that brought together the twelve researchers and practitioners from across the region to discuss how climate and security are linked in LAC.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Development, International Security, Natural Resources, and Governance
Political Geography:: Latin America and Caribbean

8. The Cornerstone and the Linchpin: Securing America’s Northeast Asian Alliances

Author:: Patrick M. Cronin
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: During an era in which strategic gravity is shifting to Asia, the United States cannot be careless in tending to its alliances with Japan and South Korea (the Republic of Korea, or ROK). The three countries face persistent threats from North Korea and from China’s semi-transparent bid for regional hegemony. Meanwhile, rocky relations between Tokyo and Seoul are jeopardizing vital U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific. The latest disagreement between America’s premier allies raises new questions about alliance strategy, commitment, and burden-sharing. These fissures have become exacerbated as the U.S. pressures allies to increase their contributions to regional security and reciprocal trade. [...] This report seeks to explain why the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-ROK alliance are still a vital means of achieving overlapping strategic interests. At the same time, it also argues that keeping these alliances fit for purpose requires radical change rather than business as usual. Both a rapidly changing security environment and growing intra-alliance squabbling pose dangers that require U.S. leadership. This report concludes with specific ideas for advancing bilateral and trilateral cooperation in the coming months and years, without trying to achieve too much too quickly.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, International Security, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

9. Regards sur l’Eurasie - L'année politique 2018

Author:: Anne De Tinguy, Annie Daubenton, Olivier Ferrando, Sophie Hohmann, Jacques Lévesque, Nicolas Mazzuchi, Gaïdz Minassian, Thierry Pasquet, Tania Sollogoub, and Julien Thorez
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: Regards sur l’Eurasie. L’année politique est une publication annuelle du Centre de recherches internationales de Sciences Po (CERI) dirigée par Anne de Tinguy. Elle propose des clefs de compréhension des événements et des phénomènes qui marquent de leur empreinte les évolutions d’une région, l’espace postsoviétique, en profonde mutation depuis l’effondrement de l’Union soviétique en 1991. Forte d’une approche transversale qui ne prétend nullement à l’exhaustivité, elle vise à identifier les grands facteurs explicatifs, les dynamiques régionales et les enjeux sous-jacents.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Corruption, Democratization, Economics, Health, International Security, Natural Resources, Conflict, Multilateralism, Europeanization, Political Science, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Caucasus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan

10. How to make the European Green Deal work

Author:: Gregory Claeys, Simone Tagliapietra, and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: European Commission president-designate Ursula von der Leyen has made climate change a top priority, promising to propose a European Green Deal that would make Europe climate neutral by 2050. Th e European Green Deal should be conceived as a reallocation mechanism, fostering investment shifts and labour substitution in key economic sectors, while supporting the most vulnerable segments of society throughout the decarbonisation process. Th e deal’s four pillars would be carbon pricing, sustainable investment, industrial policy and a just transition.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Security, Sustainable Development Goals, Global Warming, and Green Technology
Political Geography:: Europe, Global Focus, and European Union

11. Strategic Annual Report 2019 : Battles over Techno-hegemony: Japan's Course

Author:: Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA)
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: With attention focused on advanced technologies in the context of international relations and international security, battles over techno-hegemony have surfaced. The most prominent form of technological competition is the race for simple technological advantage. First, each country considers its technological capabilities to be directly linked to its own security interests and, in a more straightforward manner, views them as sources of hard power and pursues relative technological superiority. Each country expects and/or worries about the disruptive innovations that introduce cutting-edge technologies as game changers in the military domain. Second, the technological capabilities of a nation do not determine only the superiority or inferiority of its military power. Technology is also used as a diplomatic tool. Some countries can impose constraints on access to critical technology, a choke point for products, and force other countries to make concessions.
Topic:: International Relations, Science and Technology, and International Security
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

12. In Damning Report, UN Panel Details War Economy in Yemen

Author:: Elena DeLozier
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: By benefiting from questionable wartime revenue streams and outright corruption, both the Houthi rebels and the U.S.-supported Hadi government are inhibiting a transition to peace. The latest UN Panel of Experts report on Yemen raises new red flags about potential threats to near-term conflict resolution and stabilization. In addition to questioning the cohesiveness of government and rebel forces, it anecdotally details the rise of a robust, mafia-like war economy that creates disincentives for peace on both sides. The panel’s conclusions include a new, particularly damning assessment of Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi’s government and its local affiliates, while also reiterating extant concerns about the Saudi-led coalition and the Houthi rebels.
Topic:: Civil War and International Security
Political Geography:: Yemen

13. Reclamation: A Cultural Policy for Arab-Israeli Partnership

Author:: Joseph Braude
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A new opportunity has emerged to roll back generations of antisemitic and rejectionist messaging in Arab media, mosques, and schools. It stems from the convergence of interests between Israel and Arab powers, a youthful Arab grassroots trend in favor of a “peace between peoples,” and new Israeli and American Jewish capacities to engage Arab public discussions from the outside in. But prospects for change remain severely constrained: In addition to the effects of the Israeli-Palestinian stalemate, the legacy of antisemitic brainwashing endures in many Arab institutions and draws further energy from Iranian and jihadist information operations. Meanwhile, proponents of a positive shift lack coordination, planning, and adequate support. In Reclamation: A Cultural Policy for Arab-Israeli Partnership, Joseph Braude documents the opportunity as well as the obstacles, and then proposes a strategy to accelerate progress. He explains how to engage Arab allies in a coordinated communications reform effort, support independent Arab champions of civil relations with Israel and Jews, expand the “outside-in” capacities, and degrade Iranian and jihadist channels of indoctrination within the region.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

14. Energy Geopolitics in 2019

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The extraordinary criticism that Saudi Arabia is under holds the potential for the US Congress enacting legislation against OPEC. Anti-trust legislation would have turbulent impact on the global energy market in that such pressure could lead members withdrawing from OPEC.
Topic:: Energy Policy, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15. Does NATO Facilitate Regional Defence and Security Cooperation in the Balkans?

Author:: Katarina Djokic
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Despite the low-intensity conflict that is currently prevailing in the Western Balkans, shared political interests and common security threats will push the countries in the region towards enhanced cooperation in the long term. Considering NATO’s strong presence in the region - not least because most countries are either its members or interested in membership - it is worthwhile assessing its contribution to stability through fostering regional cooperation.
Topic:: International Organization and International Security
Political Geography:: Balkans

16. Maintaining America’s Coercive Economic Strength

Author:: Paula J. Dobriansky
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: U.S. foreign policy officials have embraced economic sanctions as a tool of choice for American foreign policy. Decisionmakers have deployed sanctions against strategic adversaries and national security threats ranging from Russia to non-state actors such as terrorist groups, drug cartels, and businesspeople who engage in corrupt activities. The appeal to both policy leaders and key constituent groups of the potent economic impacts of sanctions in several recent high-profile cases, particularly those of Iran, Russia, North Korea, and Venezuela, combined with broad bipartisan support for aggressive use of U.S. sanctions, suggests that the United States will favor this policy tool and be an active practitioner in the years ahead
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia

17. Opportunities for Cooperative Cyber Security

Author:: Aaron Shull
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:: While India and Canada are each individually taking steps to enhance their cyber security capacity, increased collaboration between the two countries in the realm of cyber security would increase systemic trust while creating opportunities to promote the nations’ strategic and economic interests. There are several similarities in the cyber security threats that both countries face, including being the subjects of attacks with suspected Chinese origins, and mutual concerns over terrorism and election manipulation
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

18. Libyan crisis reshuffles traditional alliances

Author:: Rina Bassist
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: The April 4 offensive launched by Gen. Khalifa Haftar and the National Libyan Army (LNA) to take control of Tripoli is now, as of May 2019, in its second month; regional actors are becoming fearful of a bloody stalemate. While the ongoing civil war in Libya has pitted mostly local forces against each other, countries such as Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Russia have allied against Italy and Great Britain, in an intensified diplomatic battle primarily being waged at the UN Security Council. In fact, the ongoing Libyan crisis has shattered traditional alliances. The
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Libya

19. To Close the Rifts, Leadership is Needed

Author:: Mohammad Darawshe
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: For the Arab voter, there weren’t compelling reasons to vote in the 2019 Knesset elections. In fact, a number of reasons motivated them not to. Quarrels around the issue of seat rotation plagued the Joint List and clarified for the Arab voter that the hope for unity had been lost. The Arab public therefore decided to punish the parties, taking from them the privilege it had given, returning them to their natural size in order to school them in the laws of modesty.
Topic:: International Security, International Affairs, and Elections
Political Geography:: Middle East

20. Arab Voting in the 21st Knesset Elections

Author:: Arik Rudnitzky
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: This article reviews the results of the elections for the 21st Knesset in Arab and Druze communities. It also examines voting patterns in these localities by demographic characteristics (by ethnic group and geographical area) and voting patterns of Arab residents in mixed cities. The discussion then deals with two issues: (a) the question of the renewed connection between the Arab voter and Jewish parties; (b) the voting patterns of Christian voters. All data presented here were taken from the conclusions of Central Elections Committee
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

21. The Oil Market Swings: Shale and Geo-politics

Author:: Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: Recently, two trends became apparent in global oil markets. First, prices rose: the OPEC basket price reached $73.14 a barrel on 24 April 2019, a 40 percent rise over the price at the beginning of January, and 13 percent higher than the average for the year of 2018. According to the International Energy Agency, the reasons for higher prices included tighter global supplies that have prevailed due to strong compliance with OPEC’s decision in December 2018 to reduce production by 1.2 million barrels a day (mb/d), as well as sanctions against Venezuela and Iran, and conflict in Libya. These developments, along with the second trend of the rising US share in the global oil market discussed below, offset bearish factors including concern over the health of the global economy
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

22. Israel’s changing Security Understanding before and after the Arab Uprisings

Author:: Ayşe İrem Aycan Özer
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:: This analysis is about the change in Israel’s security understanding. Israel is a country located in the Middle East surrounded by Arab regimes which were historically hostile to its very existence in the region. The unification of the Arab countries against Israel and the lack of an ally in the region created a constant fear in Israel. When it started having better relations with Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey, Israel ended its isolation and found partners in its immediate geography. Even when relations between Turkey and Israel took a turn for the worse, Israel continued to have Egypt and Jordan on its side.
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

23. The post-caliphate Salafi-jihadi environment

Author:: Isaac Kfir
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: In 2019, the global Salafi-jihadi architecture is very different from the one that emerged in September 2001, when transnational terrorism burst on to the international scene, or July 2014, when ISIL controlled more than 34,000 square miles in Syria and Iraq and thousands of young men and women were flocking to be part of its ‘caliphate’.
Topic:: Terrorism, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

24. Digitalisation and European welfare states

Author:: Georgios Petropoulos
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: EU policymakers must find answers to pressing questions: if technology has a negative impact on labour income, how will the welfare state be funded? How can workers’ welfare rights be adequately secured? A team of Bruegel scholars, with the support of the Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth, has taken on these questions
Topic:: International Security and Digital Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

25. Estimating the cost of capital for wind energy investments in Turkey

Author:: Lynn Fredriksson
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Wind power represents a key component of Turkey’s energy strategy. Increased investment will be required to meet Turkey’s wind power target and, as such, there is a need to understand the viability of wind power projects there. The cost of capital is a crucial element in wind power investment decisions owing to the high capital intensity of wind power plants. A reduction in the cost of capital through support policies can lower overall project costs and increase investment
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

26. How to Upgrade Germany's Policy Towards African Countries on Migration

Author:: Jessica Bither and Astrid Ziebarth
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Relations with African countries have become more important for Germany, and its political engagement with them has noticeably increased. The issue of migration is not the only reason for this, but it has been one of the most important political drivers in recent years. Most likely, the African continent will remain a focal point for migration-related policy issues for Europe. Geographic proximity, demographic changes, geopolitical upheavals, and the forces of climate change, conflict and war, as well as an increasing desire of many to migrate to Europe, mean that Germany has a key interest in deepening partnerships and cooperation with African countries in order to better manage migration between the two continents
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Germany

27. New Forms of Public Administration Activity in Poland after 1989 as an Attempt of Realization Current Social Demands

Author:: Paulina Bieś-Srokosz
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The deep changes in Polish legal system and economy that took place after 1989 contributed to the emergence of new challenges for public administration. The legislator, in order to satisfy growing numbers of social demands, appointed new tasks and created a new legal form of action for public administration entities. However, not every of the new forms were fitted to classically understood administrative law. Part of this new forms at the same time combines some features characteristic for administrative law as well as typical for civil law, which gives them untypical (hybrid) character. As an example, there can be mentioned: civil law contracts with so called “overlays” (obligatory additional conditions) imposed by certain legal acts as well as administrative settlements and administrative contracts. The aim of this article is to analyze those hybrid forms of action of public administration entities in terms of implementation the objectives of regulation set by the legislator.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

28. Citizen Security in Latin America: Facts and Figures

Author:: Robert Muggah and Katherine Aguirre Tobón
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: Many Latin American countries, states and cities are facing a chronic public security crisis. In spite of more than a decade of modest economic growth, crime and victimization rates are rising, not dropping. Nevertheless, recent information of 2017 show some signs of improvement. Criminal violence is routinely singled out as one of the top concerns of citizens from across Mexico, Central America and South America. And there are warning signs that the region ́s high rates of criminal violence and victimization will continue rising if nothing is done. Latin American priorities and approaches to public security have shifted over the past two decades, with growing attention devoted to citizen security. In contrast to traditional law and order approaches to crime, citizen security privileges a more comprehensive and people-centered conceptualization of security and safety – including more data-driven policing, smarter approaches to criminal justice, alternatives to incarceration, and investments in primary, secondary and tertiary prevention. The following report sets out the broad parameters of Latin America ‘s crime challenges and explores innovations in promoting public safety and citizen security. It also underlines the heterogeneity of Latin America ́s security environment, including the strong differences between regions, countries, states and cities. Taken together, the report issues a descriptive assessment of the scope and scale of the challenges, as well as opportunities for CAF to support partners in their efforts to prevent and reduce crime and improve safety for all Latin Americans.
Topic:: Security, Crime, International Security, Violence, and Data
Political Geography:: Latin America and Mexico

29. North Korea’s Military Strategy, 2018

Author:: Chun In-bum
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: As the focus shifted from North Korea’s military advances in 2017 to its diplomatic offensive in 2018, we should not lose sight of the strategic thinking behind gaining the maximum time to develop the capacity to extend its military threat. At present North Korea needs time to perfect its nuclear strike capability. It has been very successful in developing missile capabilities, but it needs additional time to achieve its goals. Starting with high-level North-South talks on March 5, 2018, the DPRK has just gained what it needs most: time. Whenever the first talks begin with the United States and the DPRK, there should be no surprise if the DPRK comes with an improved capability to threaten the alliance. Thus, for an extended period in 2018, as diplomacy proceeds, we should expect a subdued North Korean approach: not flaunting its nuclear weapons and missiles, while striving to boost capabilities for the struggle ahead. In the seven years since Kim Jong-un officially inherited the leadership of the DPRK, his stated policy has been byungjin ( 병진, 竝進), the pursuit of both economic and military development. In conjunction with purges and efforts to eliminate rivals, byungjin may, in part, derive from Kim’s efforts at the outset of his tenure to consolidate political power. Through it, Kim displayed moderate economic flexibility, thereby gaining favor with the North Korean people through facilitating an improvement in living standards. It is tempting to see byungjin as a sign of the regime’s weakness, or as an indication of moderation, either of which would prompt the eventual collapse of the Kim regime. Correspondingly, one might see it as a reflection of Kim’s immaturity, inexperience, and lack of political and strategic acumen. These viewpoints reflect mirror imaging more than a sophisticated understanding of North Korea. Byungjin may be more of a political device and a strategic communications element of a grand strategy, as opposed to the regime’s strategy. It may be a significant instrument in the regime’s effort to maintain elite cohesion and focus the energies of the North Korean people toward productive pursuits that likewise add to the regime’s legitimacy and staying power. It by no means suggests any diminishing of the priority of making advances in nuclear and missile development in order to pose a more serious threat. Since taking power, Kim’s regime has fired close to one hundred missiles of wide variety and range compared to thirty-one for his father and grandfather combined. He has also conducted four nuclear tests, boasting of a thermal nuclear capability. During his 2018 New Year’s address, Kim Jong-un proclaimed that the DPRK had perfected its nuclear and intercontinental missile capabilities, supporting North Korea’s constitutional claim to be a nuclear power. Despite an upsurge in diplomacy after this address, we should keep our eyes on its military advances.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economics, International Security, Military Strategy, and Weapons
Political Geography:: Asia, North Korea, and Korea

30. Hamas Finds Gaza Tunnels’ $500 Million Loss Worse Than Madoff

Author:: Pal Think
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Investment opportunities are rare in the Gaza Strip. So when Nabila Ghabin saw one last year, she pawned her car and jewelry and put $12,000 into a network of tunnels that brought in supplies smuggled from Egypt. She was one of about 4,000 Gazans who gave cash to middlemen and tunnel operators in 2008 as Israel blocked the overland passage of goods. Then Israeli warplanes bombed the tunnels before and during the Dec. 27 to Jan. 18 Gaza offensive and the investments collapsed. Now investors, who lost as much as $500 million, want their money back from Hamas, which runs Gaza. Hamas Economics Minister Ziad Zaza says about 200 people were taken into custody in connection with the tunnel investments; most have been released. Hamas is offering a partial repayment of 16.5 cents on the dollar using money recovered from Ihab al-Kurd, the biggest tunnel operator. The imbroglio over the 800 to 1,000 tunnels has deepened Hamas’s decline in public opinion in Gaza and highlights the Wild West nature of the underground economy that supports this jammed enclave of 1.4 million people
Topic:: International Political Economy, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Gaza

31. The “Deal of the Century”: The Final Stage of the Oslo Accords

Author:: Joseph Massad
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Donald Trump’s “Deal of the century” is the final phase of the 1993 Oslo Accords, which formalized the final liquidation of the Palestinian anti-colonial national struggle for independence and liberation. The “Deal” is nothing more or less than the last step of the so-called “peace process.” In order to understand the aims of the “Deal,” we need to go back to the Oslo Accords, which anticipated this step and assiduously prepared the ground for it. Since the beginning of the so-called “peace process” inaugurated in Madrid in 1991, the PLO, through its unofficial negotiators, conceded Palestinian rights one by one, in a gradual process culminating in the official PLO signing of the Declaration of Principles in Washington D.C. on September 13, 1993.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

32. Too Close for Comfort: How Algeria Faces the Libyan Conflict

Author:: Jalel Harchaoui
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: In March 2011, Algeria opposed the Arab League’s request for a Western military intervention against the Qaddafi regime in Libya. The anarchy and arms proliferation that resulted from the ensuing war were a shock to Algeria’s own national security. This Briefing Paper explores the underpinnings of Algeria’s foreign policy, and how it has evolved with respect to the ongoing crises in Libya, and offers insight into future prospects. The Paper notes that Algerian foreign policy has engaged with a wide variety of Libyan actors from 2011 to the present, playing a key role in international efforts to form an effective government. At the same time, Algeria has moved beyond its strict policy of ‘no boots on the ground’ to a more flexible stance on direct intervention. At its core, however, Algeria remains committed to compromise and dialogue with all parties, a stance that sometimes puts it at odds with the West.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Libya

33. Water Crises, Security and Climate Change

Author:: Geoffrey Kemp and Luke Hagberg
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Abstract:: The historically severe drought in Syria from 2006-2011 led to the migration of rural communities to already overburdened urban centers, which concurrent with the state’s mismanagement of freshwater resources, helped foment the social unrest and the uprisings against President Bashar al-Assad. The ongoing conflict has had repercussions around the globe with refugees fleeing to, and having an unmistakable political impact upon, neighboring states and Europe. The war in Yemen was rooted in the Arab Spring, but while the attempts to overthrow President Ali Abdullah Saleh were eventually successful, the political transition was not. The overextraction of Yemen’s groundwater led to an unprecedented water crisis that has been exacerbated by the civil war. Terrorist cells, militant insurgencies, and foreign interventions have undermined efforts to reform the Yemeni government and address this humanitarian catastrophe.
Topic:: International Security, International Affairs, and Water
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34. Friendly Force Dilemmas in Europe: Challenges Within and Among Intergovernmental Organizations and the Implications for the U.S. Army

Author:: Strategic Studies Institute
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: After a period of stability, the transatlantic community is facing considerable challenges in maintaining European security. Russia’s efforts to destabilize Europe, terrorism, climate change, energy insecurity, migration, fracturing European identity, and the reemergence of nationalist populism challenge the ability of European institutions to perform their central functions. Different visions for Europe’s future and the lack of a shared threat perception add to these dilemmas.
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

35. USAWC Research Plan AY 2018

Author:: COL Todd E Key and LTC Charles A. Carlton
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The USAWC Research Plan is one part of a research program cycle that incorporates three interrelated documents: the KSIL, the USAWC Annual Research Plan and the USAWC Annual Research Report. While the KSIL drives USAWC research, the Research Plan describes how directed resources will answer many of the questions posed in the KSIL. The Research Report serves as a compendium of research completed and a means to identify unanswered questions from the current KSIL, to assist in the next cycle’s KSIL formulation
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

36. Avoiding the Trap: U.S. Strategy and Policy for Competing in the Asia-Pacific Beyond the Rebalance

Author:: Mr. Frederick J. Gellert, Professor John F. Troxell, and Dr. David Lai
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The challenge for the U.S. administration, and for policy experts writ large, is to build an effective strategy for a whole-of-government action in moving forward from the “Rebalance” in the direction of a free and open Indo-Pacific while avoiding the Thucydides Trap. This U.S. Army War College report provides analysis and policy recommendations on topics regarding the instruments of national power, regional affairs, and key Asia-Pacific countries. The key findings are rooted in the following overarching concepts:
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

37. The Quest for a Regional Order in the Middle East

Author:: Marc Otte
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The Middle East is once again going through a period of war and upheaval, including mass murder of civilians, state failure, transnational terrorism, sectarian wars, physical and societal destruction, massive arms purchases, use of nonconventional weapons (notably chemical) and a permanent risk of proliferation of WMD. These developments are a threat to the region, but also to the rest of the world and to Europe in particular. The current turmoil should not be underestimated for its potential to trigger an even bigger hot war that could involve other players, if only because of miscalculations by some of the parties involved.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

38. Trends in international arms transfers 2017

Author:: Pieter D. Wezeman
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: The volume of international transfers of major weapons in 2013–17 was 10 per cent higher than in 2008–12. This is a continuation of the upward trend that began in the early 2000s. The flow of arms to the Middle East and Asia and Oceania increased between 2008–12 and 2013–17, while there was a decrease in the flow to the Americas, Africa and Europe.
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

39. Regards sur l’Eurasie - L’année politique 2016

Author:: Anne De Tinguy, Bayram Balci, François Dauceé, Laure Delcour, Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean, Aude Merlin, Xavier Richet, Kathy Rousselet, and Julien Vercueil
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: Looking into Eurasia : the year in politics provides some keys to understand the events and phenomena that have left their imprint on a region that has undergone major mutation since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991: the post-soviet space. With a cross-cutting approach that is no way claims to be exhaustive, this study seeks to identify the key drivers, the regional dynamics and the underlying issues at stake
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Corruption, Crime, Democratization, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, Sovereignty, War, International Security, Regional Integration, and State
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Caucasus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Belarus, and European Union

40. Untangling the Web: A Blueprint for Reforming American Security Sector Assistance

Author:: Rose Jackson
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Open Society Foundations
Abstract:: Since the attacks of 9/11, the United States has spent more than $250 billion building up military and police forces around the world. From attempts to build whole armies in Iraq and Afghanistan to efforts to help Yemen or Nigeria fight terrorism, the impact of these efforts has been mixed and in some cases counterproductive, exacerbating local corruption, human rights abuses, and even terrorism. A knot of U.S. offices and agencies have evolved to provide this aid, mostly pulling in different directions. Untangling the Web: A Blueprint for Reforming American Security Sector Assistance describes the main failures in the system and sets out immediate steps the next administration can take to improve how the U.S. government plans, coordinates, and executes its security-related assistance. This would significantly increase transparency and accountability and link the aid more closely to the human rights, development, and governance outcomes that are essential to U.S. foreign policy interests and national security.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, National Security, Terrorism, War, International Security, Military Affairs, Counter-terrorism, and Grand Strategy
Political Geography:: Middle East and Global Focus

41. The UK's Foreign, Defence, and Security Policy After Brexit

Author:: Hugh Sandeman
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In November 2017 the Global Strategies Project at LSE IDEAS brought together a group of British politicians, senior officials, and other experts at Ditchley Park to discuss options for the UK’s foreign, defence, and security policy after Brexit. This report summarieses that discussion, which covered the UK’s future relations with Europe, the US, and China, as well as the relationship between policymakers and the British public.
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Europe

42. 2017 Natural Resource Governance Index

Author:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: This report presents the key findings and core messages of the 2017 Resource Governance Index. The index measures the quality of resource governance in 81 countries that together produce 82 percent of the world’s oil, 78 percent of its gas and a significant proportion of minerals, including 72 percent of all copper. It is the product of 89 country assessments (eight countries were assessed in two sectors), compiled by 150 researchers, using almost 10,000 supporting documents to answer 149 questions
Topic:: International Security and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: Global Focus

43. Beyond the Caliphate

Author:: Richard Barrett
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: As the so-called Islamic State (IS) loses territorial control of its caliphate, there is little doubt that the group or something similar will survive the worldwide campaign against it. As long as the conditions that allowed the group to exist in the first place remain, IS or something like it will survive. The threat will mutate…
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

44. Mission to the Middle East 2017: The Plight of the Displaced

Author:: Kevin Appleby
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: From February 23, 2017 to March 6, 2017, His Eminence Roger Cardinal Mahony, archbishop emeritus of Los Angeles, California; His Excellency Silvano Tomasi, c.s., delegate secretary for the Holy See’s Dicastery on Integral Human Development; and Kevin Appleby, senior director of international migration policy of the Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS) and the Scalabrini International Migration Network (SIMN), joined in a mission to Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Greece to examine the situation of refugees and the displaced in these states
Topic:: Migration and International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

45. Discipline and Punish: Party Power Under Xi

Author:: François Godement
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The Chinese have long been obsessed with strategic culture, power balances and geopolitical shifts. Academic institutions, think-tanks, journals and web-based debates are growing in
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: China

46. The Libyan Tragedy and Its Meaning: The Wages of Indecision

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: Overshadowed by the Syrian tragedy, the collapse of the Libyan state had dangerous consequences for Mediterranean security. It also demonstrated the cost of a hastily organized intervention followed by disastrous neglect and the rise of Islamist forces. Still, its latest chapter – the successful campaign to eradicate IS in Sirte – proves that when carefully chosen, limited military means can achieve strategic goals: and in that basis, measures should be taken to satisfy General Hiftar and his Egyptian backers.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Security
Political Geography:: Libya

47. Afghanistan Affectations How to Break Political-Criminal Alliances in Contexts of Transition

Author:: Vanda Felbab-Brown
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: In “Afghanistan Affectations,” a detailed report published by the United Nations University Centre for Policy Research’s Crime-Conflict Nexus Series in April 2017, Vanda Felbab-Brown assesses how counterinsurgency, stabilization, and reconstruction dynamics have interacted with organized crime, illicit economies, and generalized predatory criminality since 2001 and warped and weakened the post-conflict stabilization and reconstruction efforts.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

48. Renegotiating NAFTA: Options for investment protection

Author:: Geoffrey Gertz
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: President Donald Trump has promised to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which links the United States with two of its largest trading partners, Canada and Mexico. Officials in both Canada and Mexico have signaled they are open to renegotiations, and talks are expected to begin soon. New commerce secretary Wilbur Ross has indicated he hopes the negotiations could be completed within a year.
Topic:: International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and International Security
Political Geography:: America, Canada, and Mexico

49. Non-proliferation challenges facing the Trump administration

Author:: Robert Einhorn
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: The global nuclear non-proliferation regime, as it has evolved since the entry into force of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1970, has been remarkably resilient. Despite predictions of a “cascade of proliferation,” there are currently only nine states with nuclear weapons, and that number has remained the same for the past 25 years.[1] The NPT is nearly universal, with 190 parties and only five non-parties (India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, South Sudan). Several countries voluntarily abandoned nuclear weapons development programs (Argentina, Brazil, Egypt); several others were forced diplomatically or militarily to give up the quest (Iraq, Libya, South Korea, Syria); three former Soviet republics inherited nuclear weapons but gave them up (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine); and one country built a small arsenal before unilaterally eliminating it (South Africa). With Iran’s path to nuclear weapons blocked by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) for at least 10 to 15 years, there are no non-nuclear weapon states currently believed to be pursuing nuclear weapons, according to U.S. government sources. And despite cases of nuclear smuggling and continuing interest of terrorist groups in acquiring nuclear weapons, no thefts of enough fissile material to build a bomb are believed to have taken place.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Global Focus

50. Principles over Security? The Impact of the Upcoming Danish Exit from Europol

Author:: Christian Kvorning Lassen
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: Denmark to be excluded from Europol due to electing not to abolish its JHA opt-outs. The Operational Agreement it has since negotiated with the EU falls short in several key areas, preventing optimal mutual cooperation between Denmark and the EU on important issues such as counter-terrorism and international organized crime. The implications ofthe operational agreement in regards to Europol are potentially far-reaching for Denmark in terms of both its EU policy and security, but also for the EU, which has to balance institutional dilemmas with security concerns.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

51. 2017-18 Key Strategic Issues List

Author:: Todd E Col Key
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Today's global security environment remains volatile, uncertain, ano complex. Resurgent, revanchist, and unstable states, and radical terrorist organizations continue to challenge the international order, undermine peace and stability, and threaten U.S. interests. In the face of this, the United States Army remains America's combat force of decision. If the political leaders of the United States decide to deploy its Army, the Nation's opponents know they will be defeated. This certainty is the foundation of America's deterrent capability
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

52. Armed Robotic Systems Emergence: Weapons Systems Life Cycles Analysis and New Strategic Realities

Author:: Dr. Robert J. Bunker
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Armed robotic systems—drones and droids—now emerging on the battlefield portend new strategic realities not only for U.S. forces but also for our allies and future potential belligerents. Numerous questions of immediate warfighting importance come to mind with the fielding of these drones and droids that are viewed as still being in their experimental and entrepreneurial stage of development. By drawing upon historical weapons systems life cycles case studies, focusing on the early 9th through the mid-16th-century knight, the mid-19th through the later 20th-century battleship, and the early 20th through the early 21st-century tank, the monograph provides military historical context related to their emergence, and better allows both for questions related to warfighting to be addressed, and policy recommendations related to them to be initially provided.
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

53. Evaluation of the 2015 DoD Cyber Strategy: Mild Progress in a Complex and Dynamic Military Domain

Author:: Mr. Jeffrey L. Caton
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: In 2011, the Department of Defense (DoD) released its Strategy for Operating in Cyberspace, which officially recognized cyberspace as an operational domain akin to the traditional military domains of land, sea, air, and space. This monograph examines the 2015 DoD Cyber Strategy to evaluate how well its five strategic goals and associated implementation objectives define an actionable strategy to achieve three primary missions in cyberspace: defend the DoD network, defend the United States and its interests, and develop cyber capabilities to support military operations. This monograph focuses on events and documents from the period of about 1 year before and 1 year after the 2015 strategy was released. This allows sufficient time to examine the key policies and guidance that influenced the development of the strategy as well as follow-on activities for the impacts from the strategy. This inquiry has five major sections that utilize different frameworks of analysis to assess the strategy:
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

54. Weekly Conflict Summary

Author:: The Carter Center
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: Over the course of this reporting period, intra-opposition strife continued to harm groups in opposition-held territory, namely in Idleb and northern Aleppo. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Afrin initiated an offensive against opposition groups in northern Syria while advancing into Raqqa city to the east. Pro-government forces also advanced against ISIS in eastern Aleppo/western Raqqa and Homs. The situation around the US garrison at the al-Tanf border crossing continues to grow more complex as pro- government forces outflanked opposition groups advancing against ISIS in the area, reaching the Iraqi border to the north of opposition and US special forces positions.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and International Security
Political Geography:: Syria and Kurdistan

55. Weekly Conflict Summary

Author:: The Carter Center
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: Over the course of this reporting period, ISIS continued to lose large portions of territory, particularly to the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and pro-government Tiger Forces in northern Syria. New clashes erupted in rural Aleppo, Daraa, and Syria’s southern desert as the Syrian government began new offensives against opposition forces on those fronts. Intra-opposition strife continues to plague groups in the opposition-held Idleb pocket.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and International Security
Political Geography:: Syria and Kurdistan

56. Daesh Meta-Narratives: From the Global Ummah to the Hyperlocal

Author:: The Carter Center
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: Daesh’s innovative and tailored use of social media has enabled the terrorist organization to lure and recruit disaffected young men and women on a global scale. Effective interventions to reduce the flow of foreign fighters to Daesh require a nuanced understanding of the organization’s recruitment strategies. This includes both the range of Daesh’s propaganda media (videos, online print materials, offline recruitment networks), and the material’s content.1 Such analysis is essential for policy-makers and community leaders who are on the frontlines of developing effective counter-narratives to Daesh’s insidious ideology.
Topic:: Terrorism and International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

57. Lessons From Guatemala’s Commission Against Impunity

Author:: Matthew Taylor
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Guatemala has made notable gains in the fight against corruption and impunity in the last decade. President Otto Perez Molina resigned in 2015 and was tried and jailed on charges of corruption, alongside his vice president and several ministers. Several prominent criminal figures have been extradited to the United States, including another former president, Alfonso Portillo. Supreme Court justices and members of congress have been removed from office, drug lords jailed, and extortion rings dismantled. The overall impunity rate for homicides fell from 95 percent to 72 percent [PDF] between 2006 and 2012.
Topic:: Corruption, International Security, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Guatemala

58. Rightsizing expectations: U.S. policy options for Afghanistan

Author:: John R Allen
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: On June 12, 2017, Bruce Jones, director of the Brookings Foreign Policy Program, convened five Brookings experts—John Allen, Vanda Felbab-Brown, Tanvi Madan, Michael O’Hanlon, and Bruce Riedel—to discuss the history and future of U.S. policy in Afghanistan. The edited transcript below reflects their assessments of evolving U.S. objectives in Afghanistan, progress to date, enduring challenges, regional dynamics, burden-sharing with coalition partners and regional stakeholders, domestic political support for ongoing U.S. commitment, and policy recommendations for U.S. strategy going forward.
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

59. European cybersecurity policy – Trends and prospects

Author:: Iva Tasheva
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Increased digitalisation has brought both economic benefits and cybersecurity challenges. According to Europol, an expanding cybercriminal economy is exploiting our increasingly Internet-enabled lives and low levels of digital skills. This became publicly evident in May 2017 with the biggest ransomware attack so far; the WannaCry cryptoworm exploited a security gap in widely used, and often not updated versions of the Windows operational system. The cyber weapon, which enabled hackers to lock (encrypt) the victims' computer files until they paid a ransom, was stolen from the US National Security Agency. It spread within a few hours, affecting 200,000 computers, compromising the security and preventing the work of critical infrastructures, such as hospitals (NHS), public transport (Deutsche Bahn), banks (Deutsche Bank), service providers (Telefónica), delivery services (FedEx), and businesses across the globe.
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

60. Will Low-Cost Terror Financing Spread in the Middle East?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The international community’s e orts have recently succeeded in reducing the sources of funding of many terror organizations in the Middle East. ISIS is one instance, where the military operations launched by a US- led global coalition since September 2014, have signi cantly reduced the terrorist group’s funds generated from oil sales and illicit trade and caused huge losses.
Topic:: Terrorism, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

61. What are the Implications of Russia-Turkey S-400 Missile Deal?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Turkey and Russia recently announced that their talks about the delivery of the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile defense system to Ankara were now at a nal stage. That is a sign that a key element of the deal, estimated at USD 2.5 billion, has already been achieved. According to statements delivered by Sergei Chemezov, the head of Russia’s Rostec state corporation, in Moscow one week before the MAKS-2017 air-show, the two countries resolved technical issues regarding the con- tract of the four missile interceptor batteries, with only administrative issues remaining. His statement indicates that the serious steps have been already taken towards implement- ing what can be described as a done deal.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia and Turkey

62. Extra-territorial Repercussions of ISIS’ Attack on Iraqi Embassy in Kabul

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: ISIS appears to be planning to attack the interests of some states that are in- volved in the war against it. The terror group’s recent assault was conducted in retaliation for its defeat in Mosul, liberated on July 10, 2017. That is evi- denced in ISIS’ quick claim of responsi- bility of the attack on the Iraqi Embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan on July 31, 2017.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

63. What are the Implications of the Palestinian Issue for Turkey-Israel Relations?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Turkey-Israel relations have recently been caught in a new stage of political and media confrontations between the two countries over the recent developments at al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, triggered by Israel’s installation of metal detectors at electronic gates to control access to the sanctuary. The resulting tensions prompted speculations that a new crisis is in the making that is rem- iniscent of the six-year diplomatic rift triggered by the 2010 Israeli raid on the Turkish- agged aid vessel Mavi Marmara, o the blockaded Gaza Strip, leaving ten Turks dead. That is despite the fact that the two countries renormalized their ties returning ambassadors to their posts and build- ing strong economic relations.
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

64. Why did Mogherini Attend Rouhani’s Inauguration?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: European states seek to increase the chances of maintaining the implementation of the nuclear agreement, also known as the Joint Comprehen- sive Plan of Action (JCPOA), concluded on July 14, 2017 between Iran and the P5+1 group of world powers, which includes the European Union, France as well as Germany. The bid is especially driven by the European view that a collapse of the deal would in ict grave consequences on their interests. However, the European bid is facing no easy hurdles. While the United States is keen to impose new sanctions on Iran over its ballistic missile program, Iran is similarly adamant about continuing this program as well as exploiting the nuclear deal to expand its in infuence in the region through backing terrorist organizations and establishing relations with non-state actors.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe and Middle East

65. What are the Implications of “Militia Wars” on Regional Security?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The raging war between Hezbollah and al-Nus- ra-Front in Arsal region raises several questions about militia wars, their features, mechanisms and outcomes. Such concerns have been raised especially after the relatively swift and decisive battle, which ended with a truce between the two parties sponsored by Lebanese General Se- curity and International Red Cross. Under the truce, al-Nusra Front militants and their families were evacuated from the Lebanese Arsal to Syria, in addition to the exchange of hostages between the parties. This was not the rst war raging be- tween armed militias in Syria, Iraq or Libya, as such kind of war has become common in recent times, especially in countries where ideologically disparate militias ght over spheres of in uence.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

66. What Restricts Shifts in the Political Track of Syria’s Crisis?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Current data on the political and military situation in Syria indicate that the military as- pect remains the dominant factor in the crisis due to the faltering political track at Geneva and Astana. Nonetheless, significant political changes that developed recently cannot be underestimated in determining the future of the crisis.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

67. Significance of the new Kurdish arrangements in northern Syria

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The Kurdistan Democratic Union party (PYD) led by Saleh Musallam continues its ef- forts and takes new executive actions with the aim of turning the federal system, an- nounced on 17 March 2016 in areas under its control in northern Syria (Rojava regions) into reality. The previous step taken by PYD was preparing a draft Federal Constitution composed of 85 articles stipulating that the constitution is a social contract for the dem- ocratic federal Rojava, and considering the city of Qamishli as the capital and center of the federation.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

68. How Is SDF Dealing with Preparations for the Battle for Deir Ezzor?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The so-called Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is making steady progress on the ground in Raqqa, ISIS’ main stronghold in Syria. The alliance of militias recently announced that they retook 70% of the city from the terrorist group following a successful plan to divide the city into an eastern and western zone and storm the city from both sides. The SDF militants advancing from the eastern and western parts of the city linked up for the first time on August 11 prevent- ing ISIS from reaching the Euphrates River and keeping its fighters with civilians who remain besieged by both groups.
Topic:: Democratization, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

69. Complexities Facing Openness Towards Assad’s Regime

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Some Middle Eastern states have recently shown signs of opening up to the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad. Acting on their own and not under orders from their governments, ministerial delegations, MPs and representatives of trade unions visited Damascus. Moreover, political parties and grassroots groups called for a restoration of relations with the Syrian regime.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and International Security
Political Geography:: Syria

70. “The Terrorism of the Possible” sweeping Europe

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Three European states and Russia were hit by a flurry of six terrorist attacks over five consecutive days during this month of August. A primary driver of the attacks appears to be a desire to deal a series of strong blows to these states in response to the human and material losses suffered by ISIS in Iraq and Syria after it withdrew from Mosul City and retreated in Raqqa City. Similar attack patterns and targets as well as similar identities of the perpetrators of some attacks are what recent attacks appear to have in common. This indicates that the group is trying to adapt and de- velop its tactics, as revealed by investiga- tions into the August 17 Barcelona attack.
Topic:: Terrorism and International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

71. Why do March 8 parties want Lebanon to join the Iranian-Syrian axis?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: March 8 parties – particularly Hezbollah – in support of the Iranian axis have sought rapprochement with Bashar al-Assad’s regime and they are trying to push the Lebanese state to establish direct political and economic relations with it. March 14 parties, particularly the Lebanese Forces which opposes Syria, objected because Hezbollah’s attempts aim to help the Syrian regime exit its regional and international isolation, to make it present again in Lebanon and enhance economic cooperation as a path to establish more comprehensive strategic relations.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Syria

72. Is a “Convergence of Necessity” behind Iranian Chief of Staff’s Visit to Turkey?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Turkey and Iran appear to be bent on upgrading political and security coordination over regional developments of common and special interest. This was evidenced by Iranian Chief of Staff General Muhammad Bagheri’s three-day vis- it to Turkey on August 15, 2017. This visit indicates that a “convergence of necessity” is headlining relations between the two regional powers despite a number of pending issues between them.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Iran and Turkey

73. Gender Equality as a National Security Priority

Author:: Julia M. Santucci
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: The Obama administration made efforts to advance gender equality around the world one of its core national security and foreign policy priorities, based on the premise that countries are more stable, secure, and prosperous when women enjoy the same rights as men, participate fully in their countries’ political systems and economies, and live free from violence. A growing body of research makes a compelling case about these links. Former Ambassador-at-Large for Global Women’s Issues Cathy Russell and former National Security Advisor Tom Donilon sum up much of the evidence in this Medium piece, noting that advancing gender equality around the world helps grow global gross domestic product, decreases hunger, strengthens the prospects for peace agreements to succeed, and counters violent extremism.1
Topic:: International Relations, Gender Issues, and International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

74. From Reform to Revolution A Schism in the Muslim Brotherhood and the Rise of Homegrown Jihadism in Mainland Egypt

Author:: Alexander Velez-Green
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: The United States has long looked to Egypt as a key partner in the Middle East. Egypt’s adherence to the Camp David Accords is fundamental to Israeli security. Cairo has also been a key player in the Israeli–Palestinian peace process for many years. In addition, the Egyptian state has played an essential role in supporting the U.S. fight against global jihadism. Its provision of reliable access to the Suez Canal, Egyptian airspace, and intelligence sharing directly enables U.S. operations against al Qaeda and the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) across the Middle East. That is not to mention the blood and treasure that Egypt itself has spent to defeat terrorist groups operating in the Sinai Peninsula and elsewhere.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Middle East

75. The "Section 702" Surveillance Program

Author:: Adam Klein, Madeline Christian, Matt Olsen, and Tristan Campos
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act is an important intelligence tool that will expire on December 31, 2017, unless Congress re-authorizes it. Here’s what it is, and how it works. First, a bit of background: The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978 requires the government to get a court order to intercept the electronic messages of a suspected spy or terrorist on U.S. soil. By contrast, overseas spying took place with no court oversight. That made sense for 20th century technology, because international communications rarely transited the United States. The internet made things far more complicated: now, foreigners’ communications often travel through the United States, or are stored on servers here. That produced an anomaly: FISA was forcing the government to apply Fourth Amendment safeguards when a foreign terrorist or spy’s internet messages passed through the U.S.—even though non-Americans overseas do not have Fourth Amendment rights. This overtaxed the Justice Department and made counterterrorism more difficult. To remedy this, Congress passed the FISA Amendments Act of 2008, which included Section 702. Section 702 creates a middle ground between U.S.-based surveillance under FISA and overseas surveillance by the NSA.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

76. New Russia Sanctions from Congress

Author:: Elizabeth Rosenberg, Neil Bhatiya, and Edorado Saravalle
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: Congress adopted new sanctions in late July to codify and significantly expand U.S. financial restrictions on Russia and tightly constrain the president’s exercise of policy in this domain. The sanctions bill was driven by concerns over Russia’s interference in U.S. elections and destabilizing aggression abroad, as well as a broadly held belief by legislators that the president is mishandling critical national security issues. With these new sanctions authorities, Congress is taking an unprecedented step to assume greater control over a domain of foreign policy
Topic:: International Relations, International Trade and Finance, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia and America

77. A Blueprint for New Sanctions on North Korea

Author:: Edward Fishman, Peter Harrell, and Elizabeth Rosenberg
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: North Korea has emerged as one of the most significant national security threats facing the United States and its allies today. Since leader Kim Jong Un came to power in 2011, North Korea has accelerated the pace of its nuclear tests, and appears to have made substantial progress in developing operational medium-, long-range, and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Many experts assess that if left unchecked, Pyongyang could develop the capability to strike the contiguous United States with a nuclear warhead within 5–10 years. Because of that, in June 2017 U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis characterized North Korea as “the most urgent and dangerous threat” to U.S. peace and security.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: North Korea and Global Focus

78. Artificial Intelligence and National Security

Author:: Gregory Allen and Taniel Chan
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: Partially autonomous and intelligent systems have been used in military technology since at least the Second World War, but advances in machine learning and Artificial Intelligence (AI) represent a turning point in the use of automation in warfare. Though the United States military and intelligence communities are planning for expanded use of AI across their portfolios, many of the most transformative applications of AI have not yet been addressed. In this piece, we propose three goals for developing future policy on AI and national security: preserving U.S. technological leadership, supporting peaceful and commercial use, and mitigating catastrophic risk. By looking at four prior cases of transformative military technology—nuclear, aerospace, cyber, and biotech—we develop lessons learned and recommendations for national security policy toward AI.
Topic:: Science and Technology, International Security, Military Strategy, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

79. First Strike: China's Missile Threat to U.S. Bases in Asia

Author:: Thomas Shugart
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: You may have heard that China’s military has developed a “carrier-killer” ballistic missile to threaten one of America’s premier power-projection tools, its unmatched fleet of aircraft carriers.1 Or perhaps you have read about China’s deployment of its own aircraft carrier to the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. But heavily defended moving targets like aircraft carriers would be a challenge to hit in open ocean, and were China’s own aircraft carrier (or even two or three like it) to venture into open water in anger, the U.S. submarine force likely would make short work of it.2 In reality, the greatest military threat to U.S. vital interests in Asia may be one that has received somewhat less attention: the growing capability of China’s missile forces to threaten U.S. bases in the region.
Topic:: International Security and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: China

80. Gray Zones in the Middle East

Author:: Nicholas Heras
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and trans-Sahara regions are undergoing a period of instability and state collapse, with active civil wars raging in four of the most important countries in the region: Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Libya. As witnessed during the Arab uprisings of 2010–2011, the MENA region has begun to grapple with the once and future challenges of instability as the regional population grows and skews younger, economies stagnate and start to collapse, and resources become scarcer. U.S. national security policy toward the MENA and trans-Sahara regions is at a point of high uncertainty, with a new administration developing strategies to address the security threats to the United States and its partner nations being caused by the region’s civil wars.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

81. Higher, Heavier, Farther, and now Undetectable?

Author:: Jerry Hendrix and Lt Col James Price
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: On Christmas Day in 1914, three former cross-channel packet ships, the Engadine, Empress, and Riviera, stood off the island of Heligoland in the North Sea. Under the watchful eye of the Royal Navy cruisers Arethusa and Undaunted, the three ships pulled back the tarps erected on their sterns and forecastles to reveal nine seaplanes. The aircraft – three Short Folders (Short was the company name; Folder was the model and denoted the aircraft’s ability to fold its wings for storage), four Short 74s, and two Short 135s – were assembled and carefully lowered into the water. The Folders had a 67-foot wingspan, were powered by a 160-horsepower engine, and weighed 3,040 pounds fully loaded. The other two models were derivatives of the original Folder and had similar, if not exact, characteristics. Seven of the nine aircraft were able to get airborne (the other two were unable to break the dynamic tension of the water) and headed eastward carrying three 20-pound Hale bombs apiece, each of which contained 4.5 pounds of explosives within 13 pounds of steel guided by aluminum tail fins. Combined, the 21 bombs had less destructive power than one 13-inch shell fired from a British battleship, but these weapons could be taken directly to their targets and dropped precisely on top of them.
Topic:: International Security and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

82. Art of the Possible Restructuring the Defense Relationship with Pakistan

Author:: Stephen Tankel
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: Pakistan is not a front-burner issue for the administration of President Donald Trump, but it remains a major contributor to the security challenges facing the United States in South Asia. This is most immediately felt in Afghanistan, where President Trump is considering sending 3,000 to 5,000 more troops on top of the almost 10,000 already there.1 There is considerable frustration with Pakistan on Capitol Hill and among career officials in the executive branch over the country’s ongoing support for various militant groups, including the Taliban-led insurgency in Afghanistan, and production of tactical nuclear weapons.2 Members of Congress and committee staff are thinking through how to reform the U.S.-Pakistan defense relationship. Several prescriptive reports and articles, including one by the author, have argued the United States should consider a tougher line with Pakistan.
Topic:: Defense Policy, International Security, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Pakistan and America

83. Networking Asian Security An Integrated Approach to Order in the Pacific

Author:: Richard Fontaine, Patrick M. Cronin, Mira Rapp-Hooper, and Harry Krejsa
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: merican security strategy in the Asia-Pacific has for decades been built on a “hub and spokes” model of bilateral, exclusive alliance relationships. Japan, Australia, South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand each share mutual defense treaties with the United States—but not with any other countries, and not with one another. In recent years, this atomized approach to regional security has begun to change. Political and economic integration has provided the foundation upon which deeper intra-Asian defense and security ties have organically emerged. Hedging against critical uncertainties surrounding China’s rise and America’s enduring presence in the region, U.S. allies and other countries are strengthening their security ties with one another.
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Asia

84. The Future of Transatlantic Sanctions on Russia

Author:: Peter Harrell, Tom Keatinge, Sarah Lain, and Elizabeth Rosenberg
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: Sanctions on Russia are part of a broad and coordinated U.S. and European policy to counter Russian aggression. The majority of these transatlantic coercive economic measures target Russia’s involvement in Eastern Ukraine and date from 2014. The strategic foreign policy concerns that underlie the use of sanctions as a tactic, however, are far broader and much more longstanding. Contemporary financial sanctions are fundamentally a new and innovative tactic among a broader array of military, diplomatic, media, and cyber options, to coordinate transatlantic policy on Russia and craft political and economic leverage for the West.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia

85. Toward an “Open Source” Maritime Force Structure

Author:: Nicholas C. Prime
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: The U.S. Navy’s updated Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower outlines several key themes and areas of development for the sea services as they continue the transition from the focus on the land wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.1 Some are new, a few are traditional, and several provide an interesting perspective on previously gestating concepts. One item of particular interest, and the focus herein, is the call to “expand the practice of employing adaptive force packages, which tailor naval capabilities to specific regional environments.”2 This seems like something that should be fairly intuitive, something that should evolve naturally as the sea services adapt to new and challenging circumstances. However, the argument here is meant to suggest something broader, a more conceptual rethink of how the maritime services, collectively, develop and deploy force structure packages. In short, all three maritime services should work toward the creation of an integrated, open framework for force development and deployment. A framework which replaces the practice of haphazard or incoherent deployment of assets, deployments with little or no connection between platforms deployed and overarching strategic aims. Abandoning a practice that indelicately pushes standardized—one size fits most—force packages into meeting unique operational requirements, and instead develop a system that identifies operational requirements and allows the relevant services (even when acting in concert with partner nations) to more precisely match particular capabilities to unique operational requirements.
Topic:: Defense Policy and International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

86. Following the Money: A Primer on Terrorist Financing

Author:: Ellie Maruyama and Kelsey Hallahan
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: Terrorist financing entails the raising and moving of funds intended for terrorist causes.1 The number and type of terrorist groups and the threats associated with them have changed over time, but the fundamental need for terrorists to raise, move, and use funds has remained constant.2 Terrorists have displayed adaptability and opportunism in meeting their financing needs, which vary but can be substantial.3 For example, al Qaeda relied on many sources of funding and its pre-9/11 annual budget was an estimated $30 million.4 The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), one of the best-funded terrorist organizations in modern history, approved a $2 billion budget for 2015
Topic:: Terrorism and International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

87. Hezbollah and the Battle of Arsal: Restoration in the Lebanese Centre

Author:: Chafic Choucair
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The battle of Arsal occurred in the context of a gradual easing of the Syrian conflict after its unprecedented exacerbation, and the party’s efforts to confront regional and international developments that target it. However, it also revealed the party’s multiple hegemonies over Lebanese authority.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and International Security
Political Geography:: Lebanon and Syria

88. Crisis in Mindanao: Duterte and the Islamic State’s Pivot to Asia

Author:: Richard Javad Heydarian
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Shortly after Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte embarked on a high-profile state visit to Russia, a legion of Islamic State-affiliated groups launched a daring siege on Marawi, the Philippines’ largest Muslim-majority city.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and International Security
Political Geography:: Asia

89. Rwanda and President Kagame

Author:: Mehari Taddele Maru
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: After winning 98.6 percent of the votes , President Paul Kagame was inaugurated for his third term in office on 18 August 2017.
Topic:: International Security and Democracy
Political Geography:: Rwanda

90. Saudi Arabia and its neighbours: A troubled relationship

Author:: Madawi al-Rasheed
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Riyadh is keen to impose guardianship on its Gulf neighbours, but most of them resist, which mires the Gulf system in recurring conflicts. This will not be settled definitively unless their relations are based on the principles of equality and mutual respect.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Saudi Arabia

91. The Gulf Crisis: Demonising Qatar through Fabrication

Author:: Dr. Mohamed Erraji
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: This paper reviews the role of media fabrication and propaganda in the current political crisis in the Gulf. Propagandists have deliberately created a new political reality to demonise Qatari politics and political leaders with a detailed political approach to create a prefabricated reality.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

92. Qatar’s battle for LNG market share

Author:: Stasa Salacanin
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: In 2005, Qatar imposed a self-moratorium on future gas developments in the North Field, but has recently lifted it in defence of the country’s leading LNG market share as new global players rapidly expand their production.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

93. Establishing triangular talks among Washington, Beijing and Seoul

Author:: Gilbert Rozman
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: Of five alternative approaches to addressing the North Korean threat to stability in East Asia and beyond, this section is concerned with the possibility of just one—a diplomatic approach via Three-Way Talks among China, South Korea, and the United States. We single out this approach as the golden mean for reconciling the conflicting interests among the parties best positioned to reshape the calculus of Pyongyang. It represents the path to compromise. Among the alternatives, there is the Chinese appeal for a dual-track approach through Six-Party Talks, aimed at a peace treaty on terms attractive to North Korea and greatly transformative to the security architecture in Northeast Asia. This could hardly be called a compromise, since Seoul and Washington regard this as a win for Pyongyang and evidence that Beijing actually has been siding with Pyongyang. Another alternative is Strategic Patience, which is a misnomer for the policy of the Obama administration, but, in any case, refers mainly to reliance on increased deterrence as pressure is ratcheted up. In fact, Obama was seeking a pathway to three-way talks, giving China time to shift in that direction bolstered by new sanctions, while in 2016 also moving closer to a fourth approach: Unilateral Sanctions targeted at the Chinese firms assisting North Korea. A fifth option is Alliance Triangularity to force change in Pyongyang.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and International Security
Political Geography:: Asia

94. The Origins and Evolution of ISIS in Libya

Author:: Jason Pack, Rhiannon Smith, and Karim Mezran
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: For the past three decades, Libya has been a rich recruiting ground for the global jihad. Investigating the precursors and then subsequent evolution of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and other extremist actors throughout this period presents actionable insights into how jihadist actors coalesce; how they interfere in post-conflict state building; the threats they pose to civilians, nascent economies, and external states; and finally, what complexities remain when their hold on territory has been eradicated, but their adherents have not been killed nor their ideology debunked. In The Origins and Evolution of ISIS in Libya, Jason Pack, Rhiannon Smith, Karim Mezran examine ISIS’s pre-history, birth, expansion, consolidation, and dispersal in Libya, as well as the broader political context of the country. They offer advice and recommendations for how Western governments and militaries should approach jihadist actors globally.
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Libya

95. The Kurds Have Opened Pandora’s Box

Author:: Bessma Momani
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: The Kurds of Iraq have been patiently waiting for the right time to secede from the troubled state. Monday's referendum turnout was high and the result was clear: 92 per cent are overwhelmingly in favour of independence. While many Kurds felt the time was right to have a referendum on the question of independence, it is the worst time for all regional stakeholders and the Kurds may have made it more difficult for themselves to realize their national dream.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Iraq and Kurdistan

96. Mapping the Global Legal Landscape of Blockchain and Other Distributed Ledger Technologies

Author:: Julie Maupin
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Blockchain, tangle and other distributed ledger technologies (DLTs) are pushing a broad array of previously centralized global economic activities toward decentralized market structures. Governments should tackle the new regulatory conundrums of an increasingly disintermediated global economy by focusing on DLTs’ individual use cases rather than its underlying enabling technologies. Grouping the known use cases by common characteristics reveals three broad categories of blockchain-law interfaces. For ease of reference, this paper labels these the recycle box, the dark box and the sandbox. Each raises distinct legal, regulatory and policy challenges deserving of separate analysis.
Topic:: Science and Technology and International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

97. The Qatar Crisis

Author:: Marc Lynch and Stephanie Dahle
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: On June 5, 2017, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates launched a campaign against Qatar. Tensions between these Gulf Cooperation Council members were nothing new, but few anticipated the sudden escalation or the intensity of the campaign. The anti-Qatar campaign leaders then failed to achieve a rapid resolution of the crisis in their favor through a Qatari capitulation. More than four months later, the GCC remains badly divided and both sides are increasingly entrenched in their positions. To make sense of this political conflict, POMEPS is pleased to release this collection of essays by a wide range of leading scholars published in The Monkey Cage and in POMEPS Studies over the last several years. The collection is divided into four major sections: the origins and course of the current conflict; regional responses; how the Arab uprisings impacted the GCC; and background on the divisive question of Islamism and the Muslim Brotherhood.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

98. The Palestinian Arabs in Israel: Reconceptualizing the Past

Author:: Arik Rudnitzky
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: Arik Rudnitzsky examines changes in the historiography of Arab society in Israel and shows how new contributions highlight the elements of resistance that prevailed among the Arab population in the years following the establishment of the state.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention and International Security
Political Geography:: Israel and Palestine

99. Refugees and Migration Movements in the Middle East

Author:: Marc Lynch
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: The Middle East has experienced a dramatic flood of refugees and forced migration over the last fifteen years. The UN High Commission on Refugees reports more than 16 million refugees and 60 million displaced persons around the world today, including asylum seekers and the internally displaced. The wars in Syria and Iraq have produced the greatest share of the Middle East’s refugees in recent years, but many more have fled wars and failed states in Afghanistan, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. Neighboring states have faced severe challenges in absorbing millions of refugees, while North African states and Turkey have emerged as key transit hubs for refugee flows into Europe.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Security, International Affairs, and Refugee Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East

100. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Cyber Readiness at a Glance

Author:: Melissa Hathaway
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Cyber Readiness at a Glance is the ninth study in a series of country reports assessing national-level preparedness for cyber risks based on the Cyber Readiness Index (CRI) 2.0 methodology. This report provides the most in-depth analysis to date of Saudi Arabia's current cyber security posture and its efforts to strengthen the country's security and resilience in the wake of significant cyber threats to the nation.
Topic:: International Security and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: Saudi Arabia

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