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2162. Conventional arms control on the Korean Peninsula: The current state and prospects
- Author:
- Yong-Sup Han
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- At the end of 2017, the Korean Peninsula reached the brink of a nuclear war, as the US president Donald Trump and the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un exchanged words of nuclear threats each other. A tug of war as to whose nuclear button is bigger and stronger exacerbated the nuclear crisis. However, the South Korean President Moon Jae-in intervened to resolve the crisis by taking advantage of the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics. In doing so, President Moon intended to pursue denuclearisation and peace-building on the Korean Peninsula at the same time. North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un responded positively to the South Korean call to hold the inter-Korean summit and the Trump-Kim summit. In order to end the Korean war and promote peace-building on the Korean Peninsula including termination of hostile acts on inter-Korean relations, the two Koreas adopted the April 27 Panmunjom Declaration, the September 19th Pyongyang Joint Declaration and the Inter-Korean Military Agreement at their summit in 2018. The Military Agreement is aimed at reducing tension and building trust between the two Koreas through conventional arms control, while the North Korean nuclear issue is being resolved through the US-DPRK summit. The September 19th Military Agreement is a modest but remarkable success in arms control history when compared with a long-term stalemate or even retreat in the contemporary international arms control arena. Indeed, arms control is at its lowest point in history, so dim are its prospects. Nevertheless, heated debates are taking place, both at home inside South Korea and abroad, over the legitimacy and rationality of the Sept. 19th Military Agreement. With little progress on the denuclearisation issue at the Kim-Trump summit and no sign of easing economic sanctions on Pyongyang, North Korea has test-fired short-range missiles ten times to exert pressure on the United States, undermining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula. Against this backdrop, this policy brief intends to analyse the true meaning of the September 19 Military Agreement between the two Koreas, to identify its problems and policy implications in order to draw up supplementary measures to implement it successfully. Furthermore, the paper will draw some implications for the relationship between progress on North Korea’s denuclearisation issue and further conventional arms control on the Korean Peninsula.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America
2163. COVID-19 in Latin America: Challenges, responses, and consequences
- Author:
- Peder Østebø and Vegard Bye
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- While containment efforts were quickly implemented in many countries, COVID-19 may still prove to have a long-lasting effect in Latin America, a region already marked by economic disarray and political instability. Economic projections suggest that Latin American economies will be among the most affected by the current halt in global trade and consumption. As many countries have recently faced political turmoil, massive containment efforts raise a number of questions on legitimacy and citizen-state relations. In some countries, democratic processes essential for the upholding of democratic legitimacy have been halted. In Brazil, the central government’s handling of the crisis has been an important factor contributing to a severe political crisis. A geopolitical vacuum may provide China with an opportunity to increase its importance for the region.
- Topic:
- Economics, Geopolitics, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Destabilization
- Political Geography:
- China and Latin America
2164. The spiralling effects of the Sino-American trade war
- Author:
- Marc Lanteigne
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Almost two years ago, China and the United States instigated a trade conflict which has had serious international effects, a situation since exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. What has truly made a solution to this conflict elusive, however, is that its origins lie well beyond questions of trade deficits and fair competition, and are instead based on the looming question of a power transition between to the two states. The effects of this divergence are beginning to be observed in several economic realms, including the financial and the technological. Many other actors in the global economy have begun to experience the side effects of this completion, and may now have to face difficult choices about how to balance between these two emerging poles in the current fragile global economy.
- Topic:
- Economic Growth, Conflict, Trade, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
2165. In the shadow of the virus Varieties of power in the COVID-19 crisis in Venezuela
- Author:
- Peder Østebø
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- While all states face massive challenges when responding to COVID-19, some are in a more precarious position than others. In Venezuela, the pandemic arrived at the worst possible time for its citizens. Facing one of the deepest economic crises outside of wartime in recent years, its consequences have spilled over to all aspect of social life.1 However, the timing seems to have suited the leaders of the Venezuelan regime well. Rather than constituting a threat to the stability of a regime that has lost both democratic legitimacy and the capacity to provide services and security, the government of Nicolas Maduro (2013-present) has seemingly managed to consolidate itself after several years of instability. The starting point of the discussion is an apparent paradox: how can a regime with neither legitimacy nor capacity, two commonly invoked criteria for effective crisis management, strengthen itself during a crisis such as that spurred by COVID-19? The brief presents an overview of how the Venezuelan regime has responded to COVID-19, and how the government of Nicolás Maduro has applied different strategies to consolidate a favorable political status quo. It takes as its starting point three concepts, namely “state capacity,” “legitimacy,” and “power,” all of which are frequently upheld as fundamental for understanding the varying ways in which states have responded to the pandemic. It highlights how relative power relations have shifted in recent years, and how the pandemic has contributed to skewing the balance of power further in favor of the Maduro government.
- Topic:
- Government, Health, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- South America, Central America, and Venezuela
2166. COVID-19 Effects on US Higher Education Campuses, Report 2: From Emergency Response to Planning for Future Student Mobility
- Author:
- Mirka Martel
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute of International Education (IIE)
- Abstract:
- The Institute of International Education (IIE) is studying the effects of COVID‐19 (coronavirus) on global student mobility on U.S. higher education campuses. Our aim in this series is to provide more information about the effects that COVID‐19 has had on international student mobility, and the measures U.S. higher education institutions are taking regarding international students currently on campus and those abroad, international students interested in studying in the United States, and U.S. students planning to study abroad. The second survey opened April 16, 2020, and specifically focuses on the effects of COVID‐19 on U.S. higher education institutions’ emergency response and planning for future student mobility. While we continue to monitor the ongoing situation, this report examines campus life, international students both already on campus and those who could not come for the spring semester, and U.S students studying abroad. It also looks ahead to summer and fall 2020 and the recruitment of international students, as well as student interest in future study abroad.
- Topic:
- Crisis Management, Mobility, Higher Education, Survey, COVID-19, and Study Abroad
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
2167. COVID-19 Effects on US Higher Education Campuses, Report 3: New Realities for Global Student Mobility in Summer and Fall 2020
- Author:
- Mirka Martel
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute of International Education (IIE)
- Abstract:
- The Institute of International Education (IIE) is studying the effects of COVID‐19 (coronavirus) on global student mobility on U.S. higher education campuses. Our aim in this series is to provide more information about the effects that COVID‐19 has had on international student mobility, and the measures U.S. higher education institutions are taking regarding international students currently on campus and those abroad, international students interested in studying in the United States, and U.S. students planning to study abroad. The third survey opened July 9, 2020, and specifically focuses on college and university COVID-19 planning for the summer and fall 2020 semesters. As the final report of the COVID-19 Snapshot Survey Series, this report examines impact on inbound and outbound options for student exchange, such as shifts in the academic calendar and potential deferment to a future semester, as well as the future outlook for U.S. study abroad programs.
- Topic:
- Education, Mobility, Higher Education, Survey, COVID-19, and Study Abroad
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
2168. Studying for the Future: International Secondary Students in the United States
- Author:
- Leah Mason and Natalya Andrejko
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute of International Education (IIE)
- Abstract:
- Trends in international secondary student mobility highlight a potential recruitment pipeline to U.S. higher education institutions. This paper will provide an overview of international secondary student enrollment trends in the United States. It will then describe a case study of the AIFS Foundation Academic Year in America (AYA) program. The case study highlights the results of an alumni survey, including student motivations for participating in AYA, the skills and attributes students gained while on the program, and their academic and professional trajectories post‐program. Finally, it will bring together information presented in these first two sections to discuss possible implications for higher education.
- Topic:
- Education, Mobility, Higher Education, and Study Abroad
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
2169. Fall 2020 International Student Enrollment Snapshot
- Author:
- Julie Baer and Mirka Martel
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute of International Education (IIE)
- Abstract:
- The Fall 2020 International Student Enrollment Snapshot presents current international student enrollment patterns based on data from over 700 U.S. higher education institutions. The report focuses on international students studying in person or online (in the U.S. or from abroad) at U.S. higher education institutions in Fall 2020. The findings reflect how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the U.S. higher education sector and global student mobility to the United States. The report, conducted by IIE and nine partner higher education associations, is released jointly with and complements Open Doors 2020, which provides a comprehensive view of international student trends from the previous year (2019/20). Open Doors 2021, to be released in November 2021, will survey more than 2,900 institutions to provide a full picture of 2020/21 international student enrollment.
- Topic:
- Education, Higher Education, COVID-19, and Study Abroad
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
2170. Ecological Threat Register: Understanding ecological threats, resilience and peace
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- This is the inaugural edition of the Ecological Threat Register (ETR), which covers 157 independent states and territories. Produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), the ETR measures ecological threats that countries are currently facing and provides projections to 2050. The ETR is unique in that it combines measures of resilience with the most comprehensive ecological data available to shed light on the countries least likely to cope with extreme ecological shocks, now and into the future. The ETR includes: population growth, water stress, food insecurity, droughts, floods, cyclones and rising temperature and sea levels. In addition, the report uses IEP’s Positive Peace framework to identify areas where resilience is unlikely to be strong enough to adapt or cope with these future shocks. The ETR clusters threats into two major domains: resource scarcity and natural disasters. The resource scarcity domain includes food insecurity, water scarcity and high population growth. The natural disaster domain measures the threat of floods, droughts, cyclones, sea level rise and rising temperatures.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Environment, Global Security, Peace, and Ecology
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus