Content Type: Special Report / Publication Year: 3 selected / Topic: European Union

1. UK-EU Relations Tracker Q3

Author:: Cleo Davies and Jannike Wachowiak
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: Released quarterly, the UK in a Changing Europe UK-EU Relations Tracker assesses relations between the UK and EU as well as relationships between the UK and EU member states. This edition of the tracker covers developments from July to September 2023. On 1 October, the UK government introduced the green-lane/red-lane system to ease the flow of goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland as part of the Windsor Framework. In the context of thawing relations post Windsor Framework, the UK and EU have reiterated their commitment to making the most of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). The political agreement on the UK’s association to the Horizon and Copernicus programmes was an important milestone. In other areas, the tracker notes that discussions are ongoing. On the future of the relationship, the tracker highlights a growing mismatch between debates on the two sides. Within the UK, the Labour Party have set out plans for building on the TCA in pursuit of a closer trading relationship. The EU, on the other hand, shows little appetite for revisiting the terms of UK-EU trade. Bilaterally, the UK has now signed general statements or declarations with most EU member states. The focus is therefore shifting from formalising relations to maintaining and implementing them. This requires continued engagement, which the tracker indicates can be difficult to sustain at the highest political level.
Topic:: International Relations, International Cooperation, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

2. The Strategic Repositioning of LNG: Implications for Key Trade Routes and Choke Points

Author:: Leslie Palti-Guzman and Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: 2022 saw the climax so far of the weaponization of energy. Following its geopolitical demise, Russia has undertaken its own gas amputation, moving from a super energy power status to a diminished role with uncertain prospects and only hard options left. Russia has cut off almost entirely pipeline gas supplies to the European Union (EU), first inflicting huge financial pain and collecting record high revenues, but then simply losing out its largest and best market with no realistic alternative, and no prospect of any significant return. However, the Kremlin could still further reduce some of the remaining pipeline gas or liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies and thus cause some tensions in the markets. Russia also retains leverage on oil markets, where the Kremlin managed to cope with the embargo as well as the price cap and maintain the relationship with Saudi Arabia which drives OPEC+ decisions. Meanwhile, in 2022, the European energy system has managed to surprisingly adapt on the supply and demand side to the three shocks: the decoupling from Russian energy supplies, the hydropower generation crisis, and the French nuclear electricity crisis. Liquefied natural gas has made a comeback in Europe and has been a savior of industries, governments, and populations. The LNG corridor between the EU and the United States (U.S.) has become the most dominant LNG trade route in 2022. This came at a huge cost though – EU’s gas import bill soared ten times from 2020 and three times from 2021 levels. For 2023, the European gas balance is much more fragile, as the demand reduction potential has reached its limits, same for the ability to attract additional non-Russian exports to Europe, at a time when missing Russian volumes will probably reach 120 billion cubic meters (bcm), instead of about 77 bcm in 2022. More moderate price levels since November 2022 have clearly overshadowed this fundamental mismatch, especially as the weather has been mild and China was still struggling with the pandemic. With an additional 30-40 bcm of missing Russian gas to offset in 2023 compared to 2022, Europeans can be expected to benefit from an extra gas of around 20-25 bcm left in storages thanks to mild weather and available LNG. They have no choice but to continue saving energy in a hurry, that is both on gas and electricity. Gas demand in power generation had increased in the first nine months of 2022 before falling in Q4 2022, and well over 15 bcm can be saved here in 2023 as more nuclear is available altogether, alongside more renewables, and some coal. It will be critical to reduce peak loads though. The key improvement is in terms of logistics, with the massive new LNG import capacity deployed across Europe. Overall, EU’s import situation will be very tensed and fragile for the next winter. The key challenge is that EU’s gas supply security ultimately depends on the weather in Europe, China’s and Japan’s LNG demand, and weather or technical outages in the Gulf of Mexico or in other producers. Any slight disruptions in supplies can have major impacts. As a last resort, bringing back some Groningen supplies, no matter how politically sensitive this would be, must be considered and prepared. Large financial compensations and effective governmental action would notably be required to offset the hardships.
Topic:: European Union, Gas, Exports, Trade, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Europe

3. China/United States: Europe off Balance

Author:: Thomas Gomart and Marc Hecker
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: As French President Emmanuel Macron (accompanied by Ursula von der Leyen) is on a state visit to China, some twenty Ifri researchers decipher the stakes of the U.S./China/Europe strategic triangle. This 16-text study follows Olaf Scholz’s visit to Beijing (November 2022) and precedes that of Emmanuel Macron (April 2023). It comes especially one year after the beginning of a geopolitical and geoeconomic shock of a rare magnitude: the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The War in Ukraine or the Return of Bloc Geopolitics? The war in Ukraine has broken ties between the European Union (EU) and Russia for the foreseeable future, particularly in the field of energy, though not without consequences in the Middle East, Africa, and the Indo-Pacific. Furthermore, this war has become the main show of active indirect confrontation between the United States—which has provided military support to Ukrainians, with help from its European allies—and China, which has supported Russia politically and economically. In February 2022, Moscow and Beijing declared their “no limits friendship”; in March 2023, Xi Jinping offered his personal support to Vladimir Putin after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest. In its position on the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis, presented in February 2023, China stated: “All parties should oppose the pursuit of one’s own security at the cost of others’ security, prevent bloc confrontation, and work together for peace and stability on the Eurasian Continent”. China is no more of a mediator than the United States: it would be unrealistic to believe so. We appear to be witnessing a return of bloc geopolitics, albeit in a starkly different context than that of the Cold War (1947-1991). Globalization has produced strong economic and technological interdependencies that make any prospect of decoupling very costly, if not impossible. Economic partners are no longer necessarily military allies, and vice versa. In other words, a gap is opening up between geopolitical perceptions and geoeconomic realities. The term “decoupling” is popular in the United States, though much less so elsewhere. The rejection of bloc geopolitics is particularly acute outside of the West, where a “pragmatic” approach to foreign policy is often promoted. The Saudi foreign minister summed this up during the World Policy Conference in December 2022: “Polarization is the last thing we need right now. […] We need to build bridges, strengthen connections, and find areas of cooperation”. A few months later, China pulled off an extraordinary diplomatic coup by brokering a deal to restore relations between Riyadh and Tehran. For the EU, the situation is particularly delicate: Europe is in the Western camp, but a severing of ties with Beijing would cause a crushing economic blow. In 2022, China accounted for more than 20% of the EU’s imports, while the United States accounted for around 12%. By 2030, the EU’s GDP is expected to rise to $20.5 trillion, compared to $30.5 trillion for the United States and $33.7 trillion for China. In January 2023, the President of the European Commission declared at Davos: “We still need to work and trade with China, especially when it comes to this transition. So, we need to refocus our approach on de-risking, rather than decoupling”. For its part, Beijing has encouraged European aspirations of “strategic autonomy”, understood in China as a form of detachment from the United States. At the same time, the EU is constantly strengthening its military, technological, financial and energy ties with the U.S. This collective study notes a hypothetical search for balance on the part of the Europeans, faced with a war on their territory (the Western peninsula of the heartland), who cannot escape Sino-American mechanisms, and who do not form a monolithic whole. It also analyzes the strategy of several important actors outside our continent, and shows that, from Ukraine to Taiwan, via Africa and the Middle East, Europeans have little room for maneuver. This is why the study proposes recommendations to try, at a crucial moment, to reinforce their positioning.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, European Union, and Industry
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and United States of America

4. Authoritarian kleptocrats are thriving on the West’s failures. Can they be stopped?

Author:: Francis Shin and Ben Judah
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: A hidden web of power revealed itself to Internet users in early 2022. Following a brutal government crackdown in Kazakhstan in January, anyone using open-source flight-tracking websites could watch kleptocratic elites flee the country on private jets. A little more than a month later, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought a new spectacle: social media users were able to track various oligarchs’ superyachts as they jumped from port to port to evade Western sanctions. These feeds captured a national security problem in near real time: In Eurasia and beyond, kleptocratic elites with deep ties to the West were able to move themselves and their assets freely despite a host of speeches by senior officials, sanctions, and structures designed to stop them. Kleptocratic regimes—kleptocracy means “rule by thieves”—have exploited the lax and uneven regulatory environments of the global financial system to hide their ill-gotten gains and interfere in politics abroad, especially in the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. They are aided in this task by a large cast of professional enablers within these jurisdictions. The stronger these forces get, the more they erode the principles of democracy and the rule of law. Furthermore, the international sanctions regime imposed on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine has little hope of long-term success if the global financial system itself continues to weaken. The West still has a long way to go to rein in the authoritarian kleptocrats who have thrived on the institutional dysfunction, regulatory failure, and bureaucratic weakness of the transatlantic community for far too long. We need to rethink not just how we combat kleptocracy, but also how we define it. Policy makers need to understand that authoritarian regimes that threaten transatlantic security are closely linked to illicit financial systems. As it stands, our thinking about how foreign corruption spreads is too constrained by stereotypes about kleptocratic goals and actions.
Topic:: Corruption, Diplomacy, Intelligence, Politics, Sanctions, Authoritarianism, Reform, European Union, Regulation, Finance, Economy, Rule of Law, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, United Kingdom, Europe, Ukraine, Canada, and United States of America

5. Europe and Russia on the Balkan Front. Geopolitics and Diplomacy in the EU’s Backyard

Author:: Giorgio Fruscione
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: The war in Ukraine has taken its toll on the stability of the Balkans by reshuffling regional geopolitics and reviving diplomatic competition between the West and Russia. Since the summer of 2022, growing tensions between Kosovo and Serbia have raised concerns about a possible Russian involvement and pushed the European Union to react promptly. By brokering a new normalisation agreement, the West seeks to prevent new hotbeds in Europe and push Russia one step back from the Balkans. Meanwhile, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has given new momentum to the integration process of candidate states, making EU membership a tangible goal rather than an unattainable dream. Will the EU be able to stabilise the Balkans? Will Russia continue to exert its influence in the region? Are Belgrade and Pristina on the eve of a new phase in the normalisation process?
Topic:: Diplomacy, European Union, Geopolitics, Political stability, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Balkans

6. How to rebuild Europe’s security architecture?

Author:: Loïc Simonet
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: Russia’s war on Ukraine is overturning the European security order in place since the end of the Cold War. The Helsinki Final Act (1975), the Charter of Paris for a New Europe (1990), the 1992 Helsinki Summit, as well as the fragile acquis of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), failed to build and maintain a system involving all countries of ‘Greater Europe’, including the Russian Federation. For at least two decades, Russia has expressed discomfort regarding its perceived status in a ‘concert of nations’ dominated, in its perception, by the Atlantic Alliance and the European Union. Still referring to a conception of security based on spheres of influence, it has considered NATO’s eastward expansion as a threat to its national security (Russian National Security Strategy, 2015, 15). “Only during ‘critical junctures’ – relatively rare watershed moments marked by rapid change and upheaval – are security architectures likely to be fundamentally reconfigured” (Hyde-Price, 2014, 105). The war in Ukraine is already listed as such a turning point in history. ln addition to continuing efforts to support Ukraine and stabilize the situation on the battlefield, the time seems ripe for an in-depth assessment of Europe’s security regime. Many might argue that it makes little sense to discuss architecture while the house is burning. I answer that it is our responsibility to stress our preparedness and explore all opportunities. Just increasing military expenditures cannot be the only option. We need a ‘Code of Conduct’ for the 21st Century that would allow no more – real or perceived - ‘security vacuums’. This is in no way intended to accept the Russian narrative. Even during the Cold War, European countries were able to progress in building a common security architecture through dialogue and negotiations. It was less than a month after the brutal military suppression of the Prague Spring by the Warsaw Pact States, in 1968, that the Finnish Government initiated the process that ended up in the Helsinki Final Act.
Topic:: Security, NATO, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe

7. Western Balkans’ Horizon 2023 – New uncertainties in a changed geopolitical setting

Author:: Vedran Dzihic
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: “The age of uncertainty” has recently become the most used description for the time we live in. The aggression of Russia against Ukraine and the war approaching now its second year have changed the globe. Global uncertainties and huge geopolitical changes we witness are mirrored in European semiperipheral regions like the Western Balkans. The Western Balkans has been in a limbo for a while with no major progress towards the EU and democracy in general. Instead of steady democratization in the region we witnessed a gradual autocratization, most prominently in Serbia, and constant rise of crisis and tensions.
Topic:: European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, Autocracy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Balkans

8. Continuities and Ruptures in the EU’s Border and Migration Control Regime

Author:: Clemens Binder
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: After years of decrease in the public salience of the issue, border security and migration control are back on top of the agenda in the European Union. Rows around issues such as the Schengen accession of Romania and Bulgaria, the ongoing debate about refugees from Ukraine and the deteriorating humanitarian situation in the Mediterranean have once again caused intense political debates in Brussels and the member states. While numerous topics (such as cooperation with third countries) arise in this context, this report will deal with three aspects – the further implementation of the EU Pact on Migration, the general technologization of border management and the operationalization of two new databases in the field of mobility control at the borders. These issues bear both political and academic significance and are thus major developments to observe in 2023.
Topic:: Security, Migration, European Union, and Borders
Political Geography:: Europe

9. Little substance, considerable impact Russian influence in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro

Author:: Wouter Zweers and Niels Drost
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: This Clingendael report explores the role of the Russian Federation in Serbia, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. It examines Russia’s objectives in its relations with the three countries, as well the various sources of influence the Kremlin holds in each of the three countries. The report places this analysis within the changed geopolitical circumstances resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s main objectives for the Western Balkans are threefold. First, the Kremlin seeks to project great power status globally. Second, it seeks to obstruct the Euro-Atlantic integration of the region by advocating against NATO and EU integration and by raising instabilities. Third, the Kremlin uses the Balkans, especially the Kosovo issue, as an argument for its foreign policy agenda elsewhere, particularly when it comes to defending its perceived dominance over its near abroad. Instead of building a sustainable, all-encompassing, and meaningful relation with Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), and Montenegro, Russia instead pursues an opportunistic approach depending on fragmented entry points for influence in each country. The Kremlin displays moderate ambitions for building positive relationships with the three countries, which is reflected also in the instruments it uses to influence the region. It nurtures contacts with, and influence through, a wide range of individual politicians, the Orthodox Church, the media and malign proxy groups, making use of energy links as well as local tensions and historical memories. Moscow pursues this approach deliberately, and it has proven relatively successful. At the political level, Russia’s clout stretches especially to (pro-)Serb politicians, who often make use of similar narratives and use Russia as an external supporter to promote their own ideas. In particular, its position on Kosovo, Russian support for Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik and its Orthodox Church links remain important entry points for Russia’s political influence in the region at large. Of the three countries, entry points for Russian influence are most widespread In Serbia, followed by Bosnia and Herzegovina. Economically, Russia’s influence is outperformed substantially by that of the EU, especially in terms of trade. Russia’s far-reaching influence in the energy sectors of BiH and Serbia, however, yield substantial political leverage, even if its investments often prove economically inviable. When it comes to military influence, Russia seeks to maintain its military cooperation with its main partner, Serbia, while also supporting the militarisation of Republika Srpska. Belgrade is satisfied with its current degree of cooperation with Moscow but seeks to avoid becoming Russia’s foothold in the Balkans. Factually, Russia is only one of multiple security actors in the Balkans, overshadowed by NATO and challenged by China. While presenting itself as a partner to Serbia and Republika Srpska in particular, Russia also resorts to malign instruments which have often proven to be effective in shaping the political environment of the Western Balkans. Lacking a military presence in the region, Russia supports far-right nationalist figures and organisations, which generally better resemble organised crime groups than paramilitary organisations, to attain its goal of destabilisation by stirring up polarisation and anti-Western sentiment. The Kremlin is perhaps most successful in the field of media and disinformation. Russian propaganda penetrates Serbia, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina through Russian-funded portals, local media and social media. Russian disinformation and narratives have penetrated the region to such an extent that considerable sections of society hold a positive image of Russia and its political leadership. In all these fields, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has moderately affected but not fully altered Russia’s approach towards Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro. While the invasion has led to sharper dividing lines between Russia and the West and decreases in Russian financial and diplomatic capacities, we observe continuity in terms of Russian strategies and objectives. Russia’s sources of influence in the three countries have been moderately strained, among other causes as a result of BiH and Serbia’s first steps to diversify energy sources and Western pressure to diminish their political and security links with the Russian Federation. For the time being, this has not yet affected Moscow’s ability to act as a spoiler to the Euro-Atlantic integration of the three countries. The extent to which the European Union and NATO are effective in countering Russian influence in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro will be part of a follow-up Clingendael report to be published in fall 2023. As part of the same research project, analyses of societal and political perceptions towards Russia in the three countries will be published in summer 2023 by Clingendael partners the Atlantic Council of Montenegro, the Helsinki Committee for Human Rights in Serbia, and the Atlantic Initiative in BiH.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Disinformation, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Eastern Europe, Serbia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

10. The EU in the South Caucasus: Navigating a geopolitical labyrinth in turmoil

Author:: Bob Deen and Wouter Zweers
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The tectonic plates of geopolitics are shifting in such a profound way that has not been seen since the end of the Cold War. The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 has not only increased tensions between the world’s major powers, but also severely impacted the regions in which they traditionally strive to project their power. This applies especially to areas in the wider Eurasian region that the Russian Federation unjustifiably considers as part of its sphere of influence, such as the South Caucasus. Russia’s failure to achieve a quick and decisive victory in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine has not only forced the Kremlin to limit its objectives on the battlefield, at least for the time being, to Ukraine’s east. It has also reduced the credibility of the Russian military that much of its power projection has depended upon – and has reduced its attractiveness as a security partner for countries that have traditionally regarded Russia as such. Russia has had to withdraw some of its troops and military equipment from the South Caucasus, its leadership is preoccupied with Ukraine, and it has not lived up to its security commitments to Armenia. This has contributed to a geopolitical vacuum and uncertainty in the South Caucasus that other actors are eager to exploit.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Europe and South Caucasus

11. The Multiannual Financial Framework: The search for flexibility and recognised effectiveness

Author:: Adriaan Schout and Saskia Hollander
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The European Union (EU) is currently confronted with developments that could have deep impacts on our societies and policies. Yet the EU’s Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) – which defines the size and aim of the EU budget over a certain period of time – has difficulties in overcoming its inflexibility and ensuring best value in relation to shifting priorities. One important step that could modernise the MFF would be to improve the use of effectiveness assessments in relation to EU spending. In 2003, André Sapir and colleagues famously referred to the MFF as a ‘historic relic’ with expenditures, revenues and procedures being ‘inconsistent with the present and future state of EU integration’. Although the MFF has improved since then, it continues to suffer from discrepancies between stated priorities and actual spending. EU finances risk becoming increasingly reliant on funds and instruments outside the MFF ceiling because existing programmes are hard to change. Moreover, doubts about the effectiveness of the MFF remain. With European integration having moved far beyond the level of technical harmonisation of the internal market, the EU budget, arguably, needs more flexibility to respond to current geopolitical and societal challenges and investment needs. As political discussions on the next MFF – the current MFF runs from 2021 to 2027 – are starting, this report discusses avenues for realigning expenditures to changing EU priorities and to unforeseen challenges and crises. In order to enhance flexibility suitable procedures are required that would lead to political decisions based on accurate assessments. Furthermore, better methods are needed to communicate potential – and possibly painful – shifts in priorities to the broader public. In order to develop such procedures, thorough analysis and discussion are needed on the effectiveness of EU programmes and the use of effectiveness assessments in redefining political priorities. This report therefore relates the concept of European added value – defined by the Commission as ‘the value resulting from an EU intervention which is additional to the value that would have been otherwise created by Member State action alone’ – to mechanisms to better respond to new situations. One of the questions this raises is whether the current (multilevel) systems for assessing European added value are able to offer the timely information needed for flexibility. Given the workload involved in performance assessments, and given the importance of national ownership of reforms, further analysis is needed of the role of the European Court of Auditors (ECA) and its interactions with its national counterparts.
Topic:: European Union, Finance, and Multinational Corporations
Political Geography:: Europe

12. Open strategic autonomy: The digital dimension

Author:: Maaike Okano-Heijmans
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: In recent years the European Union (EU) and its member states hesitantly embarked on a new and ambitious path towards what came to be called ‘digital and technological autonomy’. This paradigm shift involves a turn away from the market-based, open economy thinking that has dominated in European policy circles in recent decades. The new direction is towards a geostrategic, more closed economy thinking, with a shift from a focus on trade to technology.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Sovereignty, European Union, Leadership, Strategic Autonomy, and Digital Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13. Military capabilities affected by climate change: An analysis of China, Russia and the United States

Author:: Adaja Stoetman, Dick Zandee, Ties Dams, Niels Drost, and Louise Van Schaik
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges of the present and the future. Rising temperatures and sea levels, as well as extreme weather events are manifestations of climate change that also influence military capabilities. Increased attention for the climate change-security nexus is visible both at the national and the international level: nationally through the incorporation of climate change in security strategies and internationally through incorporation in important strategic documents such as the EU’s Strategic Compass and NATO’s Strategic Concept. Given its transnational nature, governments around the world have a shared responsibility to face climate change. A particular role is laid down for the global powers, China, Russia and the United States, given their position in the world. It is, however, questionable whether the global powers’ interests align. They differ in their approaches to address climate change, and even more so in their views on how it affects the armed forces. China and particularly Russia are more reluctant towards depicting climate change as a matter of international security. This is for example visible in international forums, such as the UN Security Council. In contrast, in the US, support for climate action is subject to political preferences, but climate related security risks are widely recognised within the defence establishment. This report reviews various aspects of the relationship between climate and security, with a particular focus on the military. It discusses the role of climate change in a country’s security and defence strategy and, vice versa, the changing tasks and deployment of the armed forces in response to climate change, the effects of climate change on military infrastructure, and measures to realise a greener defence sector.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, European Union, and Military
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

14. How strategic tech cooperation can reinvigorate relations between the EU and India

Author:: Vera Kranenburg and Maaike Okano-Heijmans
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: In an era of multipolarity, India – expected to become the world’s most populous nation soon – will be a significant geopolitical player. This necessitates European Union (EU) member states to shift their policies to engage one of the world’s largest consumer and industrial markets.
Topic:: Markets, Science and Technology, European Union, Industry, Multipolarity, and Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, South Asia, and India

15. The state of economic convergence in the Eurozone: Two decades of monetary union and economic governance

Author:: Adriaan Schout
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: What is the state of economic convergence in the euro area? And will the redefinition of the Stability and Growth Pact result in a more effective policy for achieving convergence? A common currency, together with the four freedoms, was assumed to lead to economic convergence. This Clingendael Report reviews the state of convergence in the euro area by focusing on nominal, real and institutional convergence. Despite a range of policy initiatives and monitoring systems, convergence has not been achieved neither in terms of monetary and economic performance nor of the quality of governance at the national level. Despite some major successes in convergence, welfare has continued to diverge in some countries and differences in debt levels have increased up to the point of threatening the - economic and political - coherence of the euro area. Public spending also varies considerably while higher public spending does not ensure higher growth levels. The paradoxical situation has arisen in which countries that (drastically) reduced debt levels performed better in terms of growth and reduction in unemployment.
Topic:: Economics, Governance, European Union, Economic Growth, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:: Europe

16. Conditionality in Migration Cooperation: Five Ideas for Future Use Beyond Carrots, Sticks, and Delusions

Author:: Victoria Rietig and Marie Walter-Franke
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Effective migration partnerships with third countries are a declared goal of the European Union. But views diverge on what good migration cooperation looks like. Using carrots and sticks, also known as conditionality, is a controversial strategy to reach the EU’s migration goals. Politicians and experts either frame it as necessary and legitimate, or as post-colonial and counterproductive. Whether one supports conditionality or not, positive and negative incentives have shaped the different types of migration agreements the EU and its Member States have struck in the last decade. Some are formal agreements binding under international law, but most are soft law or handshake deals. They may cover just one specific issue within migration policy, or tie migration to other policy areas. Some are public, others confidential. All these agreements reflect the interests and the leverage which the EU, Member States, and partner countries bring to the table. The three most discussed levers the EU uses to nudge partner countries toward joint migration management are visas, development aid, and trade – the holy trinity of migration conditionality. But the exclusive focus on these three levers is artificial. Europe also uses other levers, such as police or military cooperation and training, diplomatic attention and high level visits, legal migration opportunities, and others. When these levers are used, they generate three kinds of effects: the conclusion of an agreement, common document, or statement (paper), procedural or technical changes (process), and migratory movements (people). But they also bring unintended side effects, such as backlash from the citizens of third countries, or the phenomenon of reverse conditionality, when a third country reacts to threats by reducing border patrols or by supporting irregular onward migration. Lever use of one EU country can also worsen the migration relationship of its EU neighbors with that third country. Despite these high stakes, Europe uses conditionality remarkably inconsistently. Its strategy to create coordination mechanisms to make Member States’ approaches more coherent is hobbled by entrenched realities: The cost of coordination is often disproportionate to its benefits, and turf demarcation hinders cooperation. Thus, the chase for coherent conditionality usage in the EU is at best an uphill battle and at worst a delusion. This report puts forward five recommendations to improve Europe’s migration conditionality use and debate in the future. It draws on case studies that trace the EU’s use of incentives and threats toward Bangladesh, The Gambia, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Nigeria, and distills lessons from them.
Topic:: Migration, European Union, Cooperation, and Conditionality
Political Geography:: Europe

17. Russia’s War in Ukraine: Rethinking the EU’s Eastern Enlargement and Neighborhood Policy

Author:: Guntram Wolff, Alexandra Gritz, Stefan Meister, and Milan Nič
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The stagnating EU accession process needs political will and procedural changes allowing eastern candidates to advance. In the meantime, they should be more supported to use the full potential of existing opportunities for gradual economic and sectoral integration with the EU. An upgraded Eastern Partnership needs a comprehensive security dimension linking resilience, connectivity, and defense policy, as well as cooperation in the area of the Common Security and Defence Policy. The protracted regional conflicts (in Moldova and the South Caucasus) require a more active EU engagement as existing OSCE formats continue to be blocked, and Russia’s role and military presence weaken. New openings for conflict resolution mean higher demand for the EU’s diplomatic, monitoring, and peacekeeping capacities. A new eastern Neighborhood Policy should be designed for the wider region, connecting the Black Sea and the South Caucasus with Central Asia and thus creating viable alternatives to the competing geoeconomic and governance “offers” of China, Russia, and Turkey.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Governance, European Union, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

18. From Coy to Cold Shoulder - The European Union and North Korea

Author:: Glyn Ford
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The European Union (EU)—then 15 member states prior to its 2004 enlargement to 25—formally established diplomatic relations with Pyongyang in 2001 after a high-level visit to Pyongyang by Göran Persson, Swedish Prime Minister and then President in office of the European Council of Ministers. There, accompanied by EU security affairs chief Javier Solana and EU foreign affairs commissioner Chris Patten, he met with Kim Jong Il. Less than five years before, Commission officials were under orders not to even speak to officials from North Korea, officially the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). However, at this meeting, the two parties agreed to establish both Political and Human Rights Dialogues; the latter modeled on the EU’s ongoing Human Rights Dialogue with Beijing. This move by the EU followed pressure from President Kim Dae-Jung in Seoul for allies to normalize relations as part of his ‘Sunshine’ policy. Some of the EU’s peripheral member states had long-standing relations with Pyongyang, in some cases dating back to before they had even joined the EU, with Finland, Sweden, and Denmark establishing relations in 1973, Austria in 1974, and Portugal in 1975. However, only Sweden had chosen to establish an Embassy, with the rest represented from Beijing. At the turn of the century, that pressure from Seoul resulted into most of the remaining dominoes falling in place. Italy and the UK jumped the gun in 2000, with Tony Blair and UK Foreign Minister Robin Cook agreeing to extend diplomatic recognition and establish an embassy en route to the Seoul Asia-Europe Summit.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Politics, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, and North Korea

19. The Emissions Reduction Potential for Freight Transport on a High-speed Rail Line Along the ‘European Silk Road’

Author:: Erica Angers, Aleksandr Arsenev, and Mario Holzner
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This report estimates the CO2 emissions of freight transport on a hypothetical high-speed rail (HSR) line along the northern route, from Lyon to Warsaw, of a ‘European Silk Road’ (ESR). Using a methodology consisting of predictions regarding the freight-carrying capacity of the future HSR, and the commodity-level switchover, our results indicate that a best-case scenario, at a project lifecycle of 60 years, in which all trains run with 257 tonnes of load, provides for a reduction of 176.2 Mt of net CO2 emissions compared with current levels. These lifespan savings are comparable to a reduction of net emissions by close to 24% of the overall EU transport sector emissions (excluding air transport) of one year (as measured by the net emissions in 2018). The net negative emissions in the optimistic full-capacity scenario will compensate for the construction costs in 13 years. Thus, the potential for emission reduction along the northern route of the ESR is quite substantial, given that this is just one line, with limited capacity. This hints at the importance that bold missions, such as the construction of a pan-European HSR network, could have for the definition of a European Green Industrial Policy that is capable of supporting the fulfilment of the goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change.
Topic:: Climate Change, Infrastructure, European Union, Economic Growth, Transportation, Logistics, Ecology, and Green Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

20. The Euro Area’s Achilles Heel: Reassessing Italy’s Long Decline in the Context of European Integration and Globalisation

Author:: Dario Guarascio, Philipp Heimberger, and Francesco Zezza
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This paper analyses how Italy’s decades-long decline turned the country into the euro area’s Achilles heel, the most vulnerable spot in the common currency. We use a structuralist framework to synthesise different (competing) supply-side and demand-side explanations, accounting for long-term processes and sectoral interdependencies. We argue that structural domestic factors that were already present in the decades after World War II (‘original sins’) – low-cost competition and labour fragmentation, many small firms linked to low innovation, and a deep territorial divide – interacted with the policy constraints brought about by globalisation and European integration to exacerbate Italy’s decline vis-à-vis its euro area peers.
Topic:: Globalization, European Union, Regional Integration, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Europe and Italy

21. Industrial Policy for a New Growth Model: A Toolbox for EU-CEE Countries

Author:: Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Maciej J. Grodzicki, and Doris Hanzl-Weiss
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: The EU member states of Central Eastern Europe (EU-CEE) have experienced rapid convergence in the decades following their EU accession, and have built up strong export-oriented manufacturing sectors boosted by foreign direct investment inflows. While this growth model has brought many positives, there are indications that it is hitting its limits. Endogenous limits to EU-CEE’s growth model are exacerbated by exogenous challenges of the ‘twin’ (green and digital) transitions, and the fallout of the pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine. This reinforces the imperative for EU-CEE to transition to a more innovation-driven, new growth model, enabled by a comprehensive industrial policy. However, the EU-CEE countries have not only lacked a stable and strategic approach to industrial policy in their development paths, but also find themselves in a unique position due to EU membership. As a result, innovation and industrial policies are underdeveloped in the region. Based on an in-depth analysis of the industrial landscape and the industrial policy environment of the region, we propose eight pillars for creating a EU-CEE version of the entrepreneurial state.
Topic:: Climate Change, Industrial Policy, European Union, Economic Growth, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Latvia, Slovenia, Slovakia, and Czechia

22. Trade Balances and International Competitiveness in Cyber-physical, Digital Task-intensive, ICT Capital-intensive and Traditional Industries

Author:: Alexandra Bykova and Roman Stöllinger
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: In this report, we analyse the international competitiveness of the EU in four industry groups over the period 1995-2018. The groups are delineated by specific factor intensities, where these intensities are assessed from digital tasks performed by labour services and ICT capital stocks. The EU’s positions relating to trade balances, revealed comparative advantages and unit value ratios are assessed relative to its main competitors, such as the US, China, Japan and South Korea. The trade specialisation patterns confirm EU advantages in traditional industries, which still represent the largest part of global trade, and in the group of digital task-intensive industries. In the cyber-physical group of industries, which are characterised by both high digital task and ICT capital intensities, the EU records a trade deficit, although this has been receding in recent years. Competitiveness indicators depict heterogeneity among EU countries. The loss of international competitiveness for some technology front-runners is a worrying sign. On the positive side, however, a reduction in trade deficits or an improvement in product quality and market shares is evident for certain EU countries, especially in the Central European region.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, European Union, Trade, Digitalization, and International Competition
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Europe, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

23. The Future of EU Cohesion - Effects of the Twin Transition on Disparities across European Regions

Author:: Ambre Maucorps, Roman Römisch, Thomas Schwab, and Nina Vujanović
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: Closing the prosperity gap between regions has always been a key political aspiration of the European Union – and cohesion policy is the primary means to achieve that goal. Europe is currently undergoing a digital and green transition that is drastically changing the way its economy works. How well prepared are regions to capitalise on the twin transition? And what impact will it have on regional cohesion in Europe? Our study finds that greening and digitalising the economy will likely widen the gap between rich and poor regions in Europe.
Topic:: European Union, Economy, Regional Integration, Digitalization, Green Transition, and Regional Development
Political Geography:: Europe

24. CEFTA: Trade and Growth Patterns Fifteen Years since Establishment

Author:: Nina Vujanović
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This research report investigates the trade and growth benefits of the CEFTA agreement for its members. Although the countries have not reached their end goal of membership of the European Union, the report shows that CEFTA has supported their economic growth. However, there is trade heterogeneity in terms of the extent to which individual countries use CEFTA value added in their manufacturing exports. Less-developed economies seem to rely more on regional (CEFTA) supply chains, while manufacturing-based economies are increasingly coming to rely on EU supply chains. The countries have not built a strong export advantage abroad, as very little of their value added is used in EU exports.
Topic:: European Union, Economic Growth, Trade, Supply Chains, and CEFTA
Political Geography:: Moldova, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, Albania, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia

25. Allies Help Those Who Help Themselves: How Estonia and Japan Approach Deterrence

Author:: Yoko Iwama, Tetsuo Kotani, Sugio Takahashi, Tony Lawrence, and Henrik Praks
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: Up until the blatant act of Russian aggression in Ukraine in 2022, the West had been gradually shifting its attention towards East Asia, with China seen as the primary challenge of the first half of the 21st century. The new context requires a thorough reassessment of international security architecture by all national stakeholders. This, in turn, offers Estonia and Japan the opportunity to enrich their security perspectives on common strategic threats, as well as on broader geopolitical shifts caused by Russia and China. This report introduces several aspects of these revolutionary developments, their background, and their potential implications, some of which have already been reflected in the updated strategic documents unveiled by US and Japanese defence communities. Taken together, these documents make a case for an enhanced partnership between Japan, the US, and Europe that would prepare like-minded allies to respond to any security crisis. In the eventuality of a crisis resulting in an actual military confrontation, the report compares China’s missile supremacy and Japan’s long-range standoff maritime firepower strategies by grounding this analysis in the theory of victory. Charting a more favourable course forward, the report assesses the current state of deterrence in the Baltics by detailing the key developments in regional defence posture and planning, with a clear shift towards forward defence. Centring on emerging cross-border risks posed by hybrid warfare and using Estonia as a case study for vulnerabilities, the report proposes ways to mitigate these risks by advancing the role of deterrence. The report’s recommendations are as follows: To establish a cooperative format between NATO and Indo-Pacific nations along the lines of the Euro-Atlantic Partnership and Cooperation Council and open NATO’s liaison office in Japan. To create the Baltic-Japan security and defence 1.5 Track dialogue forum. To develop ties between the defence intelligence services of Estonia and Japan in order to better understand the threats posed by Russia and China. To facilitate networking in the fields of concept development, capability planning, doctrine, and military education to address the challenges of multi-domain operations. To explore possibilities for closer defence industrial cooperation and technology sharing between Estonia and Japan in cyber security, artificial intelligence, sensorics, robotics, and electronic warfare. To engage Estonia’s knowledge and experience when adopting NATO’s standards and practices in Japan’s future capability development in pursuit of interoperability. To hold joint exercises in integrated air and missile defence, coastal defence, critical undersea infrastructure protection, etc. As Japan seeks to forge closer defence relations with Europe and European nations and enhance their defence ties with the democracies in the Indo-Pacific area, the need to understand better how cooperation between Estonia and Japan contributes to the emerging Euro-Pacific deterrence agenda will persist.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, Cybersecurity, Deterrence, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Europe, Ukraine, Taiwan, Asia, and Estonia

26. Europe’s Broken Order and the Prospect of a New Cold War

Author:: Kristi Raik and Eero Kristjan Sild
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: The Russian and western visions of European security have profoundly different ideational roots: balance of power embedded in realist geopolitics versus liberal rules-based order. Russia is a revisionist power aiming to re-establish a European security order based on the balance of power, including a recognition of its empire and sphere of influence. Russia’s aggressive pursuit of this vision has forced the West to defend the rules-based liberal order in Europe and beyond. This report analyses the main sources and implications of Russia’s discontent with the post-Cold War European security order, which eventually led to the invasion of Ukraine. The disagreements are likely to endure beyond the war in Ukraine, leading to a new Cold War. The paper identifies three scenarios for the future of the European security order, the most likely one being a dual order, with the liberal rules-based order further strengthened and enlarged among western countries including Ukraine, while Russia will hold on to its imperialist ambitions but being forced to accept a much more limited sphere of influence than the former Soviet or tsarist empires. As long as the worldview that underlies Russia’s foreign policy does not change, any new balance of power will be temporary and under threat of renewed aggression once Russia has regained strength. In order to make it more sustainable, the West will need to eliminate grey zones, ensure credible deterrence and defence, and consistently weaken Russia’s ability to rebuild its military might.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Cold War, Authoritarianism, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, Deterrence, and Soviet Union
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

27. War and Energy Security: Lessons for The Future

Author:: Tomas Jermalavicius, Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen, Andrian Prokip, Christian Egenhofer, and Edoardo Righetti
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: Russia’s war against Ukraine has produced multiple shifts in the geopolitical landscape of Europe. Various EU member states and EU institutions broke through entire decades of dogmatic principles and established practices in security and defence policies to respond to Russia’s aggression and protect the continent. The energy domain is at the forefront of this confrontation, as Russia used its dominant market position in European energy supply in the run-up to – as well as during – the war to weaken Europe’s responses, divide the EU, and deter it from increasing its support to Ukraine. The multifaceted and far-reaching impact of the war offers an opportunity for a deeper reflection on the lessons learned for energy security at the national, regional, and EU levels. It allows for an assessment of the prospects in the geopolitical landscape where Russia is comprehensively isolated; new energy and technology players grow in importance; a new global energy order emerges; and the effects of the climate crisis become more severe and evident. It is also a rare opportunity to assess how complex energy systems retain their resilience or degrade under the conditions of a high-intensity conventional war, which has collective defence implications to the ability of the frontline states, such as Estonia, to fulfil NATO’s baseline requirements for national resilience and thus Article 3 of the North Atlantic Treaty. The report seeks to provide analysis concerning these aspects of the war’s short-, medium-, and long-term impact on energy security in Europe, the Baltic region, and Estonia. Conclusions of the report stress the importance of regulatory, policy, and technological flexibility, as well as innovation, in responding to various forms of strategic coercion through the energy sector – especially when such coercion is applied against targets under the duress of a major war, in which economic disruption, market uncertainty, geopolitical turmoil, and societal anxieties are abundant. The conclusions caution though that the appetite for resilience-enhancing investments and transformative solutions might diminish in the cost-conscious economic environment of the future or that the EU and US will start a vicious cycle of protectionist measures in green energy development, which will undercut transatlantic cooperation in energy security.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Infrastructure, European Union, Gas, Crisis Management, Renewable Energy, Hybrid Threats, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Finland, Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Sweden, and United States of America

28. Europe’s Indo-Pacific Tilt: Estonian and Japanese Interests

Author:: Frank Jüris, Steven Blockmans, Kazuto Suzuki, Sanshiro Hosaka, and Maret Nukke
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: Reshaped by the new great power competition, the international order has been undergoing revolutionary transformations. Revanchist Russia has unleashed a barbarian war against a sovereign European nation, while increasingly militarised and contentious China looms as a not-so-insidious threat in the Indo-Pacific. In response to these shifting dynamics and mounting geopolitical tensions, Europe is now awakening to the new reality and paying greater attention to the far-away region. At first glance, Estonia and Japan may seem like odd partners, yet they share vital commonalities and common interests impossible to ignore. Amidst Russia’s ongoing brutal invasion of Ukraine and China’s territorial claims over Taiwan, Japan’s strong advocacy in the Indo-Pacific region confirms how essential unity, consensus, and solidarity are for tackling global challenges in an environment of limited resources. This report brings together foreign and security policy experts to improve our understanding of each other’s security concerns — be it threats in cyber and information space, ruptures in trade, energy, and food, or authoritarian neighbours — by taking a step closer to a shared threat perception. Acknowledging unprecedented challenges to global security and rules-based order that democracy and democracies are confronted with from East to West, this report critically examines whether the European Union’s regional strategy maximises and realises the union’s full potential in the Indo-Pacific, which will test its actorness and agency and determine the role for the decades — if not centuries — to come. As the long-distance race for technological hegemony between the U.S. and China — of which Japan and Estonia are by far neither neutral nor casual observers — tightens, the report highlights national policies and capabilities needed to stay competitive, as well as to reduce known and potential vulnerabilities, from the perspective of economic security. China’s dramatic rise — as not only an economic but also a military superpower — entails an assertive and oftentimes assailing foreign policy that is felt both in Europe and the Indo-Pacific alike. The authoritarian regime in Beijing cleverly exploits the vacuum of power wherever it finds any. Cautioning against repeating the old mistakes of China-centrism, the report advocates for fostering multifaced cooperation with Japan in the framework of EU-Japan and Estonia-Japan relations. Thus, the report recommends that the EU as a whole and its individual member states should continue building on the positive momentum generated by the Indo-Pacific strategies and modify their approach to incorporate like-minded partners. From freedom of information to information- and cybersecurity, the report reminds us that leadership matters. It explains the changing tides in the Japanese mainstream public opinions that have already washed away the decades of harmful Russia-centrism from media, academia, and corridors of power and thus resulted in a society successfully resisting malign foreign disinformation campaigns. Estonia and Japan should facilitate digital transformation beyond their national borders, promote economic security, and exert geopolitical power through domestically produced sophisticated technology. The report also probes Sino-Russian relations from the perspective of Chinese strategic interests in its own neighbourhood. Able to contain the West by redirecting its focus and resources towards the war in Ukraine, Russia creates additional operation space for China in the Taiwan Strait. With the war raging In Europe, it should be clear that appeasing an aggressor with concessions and seemingly clever compromises only emboldens the latter, making it even more contentious in both territorial claims and bellicose actions. To prevent a conflict from breaking out in the Taiwan Strait, the EU should be building up allied immunity by counterbalancing China in the Indo-Pacific and proactively defending the rules-based world order.
Topic:: Defense Policy, European Union, Cybersecurity, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), ASEAN, and Economic Security
Political Geography:: Russia, Japan, China, Europe, Ukraine, Taiwan, Asia, Estonia, and Indo-Pacific

29. How Russia Went to War: The Kremlin’s Preparations for Its Aggression Against Ukraine

Author:: Kalev Stoicescu, Mykola Nazarov, Keir Giles, and Matthew Johnson
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: This report examines Russia’s preparations for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine: domestically, in Ukraine itself, in the global information domain, and in building its relationship with China. For Russia, crushing Ukraine’s quest for democracy was central to meeting its objectives of reshaping the post-Cold War order in Europe and globally, restoring its own status, and reconstituting the Russian empire and Russian world. Its preparations in the political and informational, military, and economic domains for a full-scale war in Ukraine were too extensive and overt to go unnoticed, but they were not acted upon. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that the evidence went against the dominant narrative in the West and was simply brushed aside. In the political and informational domains, Russia’s domestic preparations including cementing the regime’s authority, and taking advantage of the population’s Soviet nostalgia and aspirations for the restoration of the Russian world and the empire. Limited economic preparations were intended to safeguard Russia’s economy against current and future Western sanctions, while Russia’s extensive military preparations involved large-scale defence spending and extensive military modernisation efforts. Russia’s preparations beyond its own territory included: a campaign within Ukraine to divide society and discredit the democratically elected leadership; a campaign directed at the rest of the world about Ukraine, discrediting the country and its people as an object of sympathy and support in their resistance against Russia; and a campaign of intimidation designed to instil in western leaders and populations a fear of obstructing, impeding, or offending Russia. Russia also worked to build a relationship with China. China’s support is essential to Putin’s ambitions. But equally, China’s strategy for confronting the United States – which China cannot do alone – depends on Russia remaining at least a quasi-great power.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Development, Sanctions, Military Affairs, European Union, Resilience, and Information Warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, China, United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

30. Turkey after the elections, what direction it will take

Author:: Vít Marek
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: On Wednesday, June 7, a debate took place as part of the Café Evropa cycle, on the topic: "Turkey after the elections, which direction will it go?". The invitation to the debate was accepted by Lucia Najšlová, political scientist and author of the book Turkey and the EU: The Politics of Belonging, as well as by Deník N journalist Dominika Píhová and Břetislav Tureček, head of the Center for Middle East Studies at the Metropolitan University in Prague. The debate was moderated by Žiga Faktor, the head of the Brussels office of the EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Political Geography:: Europe and Turkey

31. EU-Pacific Talks: In-EV-itable future of automotive industry: what is the role of the Pacific region

Author:: Petra Pospíšilová
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: In the last debate of the second series of EU-Pacific Talks, organised by EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy, the guests focused on electric and fuel cell vehicles, which are envisaged as a way to decarbonise road transport. Read what our guests discussed in this report by Petra Pospíšilová.
Topic:: European Union, Transportation, Decarbonization, and Automotive Industry
Political Geography:: Europe and Asia-Pacific

32. EU-Pacific Talks: Be small and beautiful - future of nuclear energy?

Author:: Petra Pospíšilová
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: This year's third debate in a series of expert discussions on the EU's relations with the Pacific occurred online on Tuesday, 28 March 2023. The guests offered their views on nuclear energy trends, outlook, and small modular reactors' role in energy and industry sectors. Read more about this debate in the report by Petra Pospíšilová.
Topic:: Nuclear Power, European Union, Industry, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe and Asia-Pacific

33. EU-China relations - Will the current crisis change the relationship between the two great powers?

Author:: Eliška Prostřední
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: As part of the Café Evropa debate cycle, one of the discussions took place on the relationship and approach between the European Union and China. Among those invited were Magdaléna Slezáková, Ondřej Wagner, David Gardáš and Zdeněk Beránek. You can read a summary of the outputs of individual guests in the report written by our intern Eliška Prostřední.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, European Union, Crisis Management, and Debates
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

34. Roundtable report | Monitoring of the EU’s Green Policies: Perceptions and Narratives in the Czech and Slovak Information Space

Author:: Tatiana Mindeková
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: On 17th of January 2023, the EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy organised a closed roundtable discussion titled Monitoring of the EU’s Green Policies: Perceptions and Narratives in the Czech and Slovak Information Space. The discussion was held under the Chatham House Rule and attended by experts on the EU’s green policies and disinformation from think-tank communities and academia as well as by journalists who regularly comment on these topics. The event was moderated by Žiga Faktor, EUROPEUM’s Head of the Brussels Office. A short report from the discussion was prepared by our junior researcher and project manager Tatiana Mindeková.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Europe

35. Monitoring of the EU's Green Policies: Perceptions and Narratives in the Czech and Slovak Information Space

Author:: Tatiana Mindeková
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: The European Green Deal is the core of the current climate strategy of the European Union, which has set the goal of making Europe a carbon-neutral continent by 2050. In an effort to monitor and counter disinformation narratives about the deal, IRI's Beacon project launched an initiative called the “European Green Deal: Mapping perceptions in Central and Eastern Europe,” in which six partner organizations studied how the deal is perceived in Bulgaria, Czechia, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. Our project manager and juniour researcher, Tatiana Mindeková, analyzed narratives spread about the Green Deal and the EU’s green policies through Czech chain emails as well as through selected mainstream media and websites known for spreading disinformation.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Disinformation, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Czech Republic and Slovakia

36. EU-Pacific talks: Free and Open Indo-Pacific: Bold vision for bold players

Author:: Zsanett Gréta Papp
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: If you missed the EU-Pacific talks: Free and Open Indo-Pacific: Bold vision for bold players, here you can read the report from the debate written by Zsanett Gréta Papp. During the debate it was discussed, for example, that although each country has its own interests concerning the region, there are several global problems that countries should face together, because one country cannot solve them. On the other hand, it is really difficult to establish dialogue with the Indo-Pacific countries.
Topic:: European Union, Geopolitics, Dialogue, and Debates
Political Geography:: Europe and Indo-Pacific

37. EU – Pacific Talks: EU – Security Challenges for the Pacific, EU, and Russia

Author:: Tomáš Moudrý
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: If you missed the debate EU - Pacific talks: EU - Security Challenges for the Pacific, EU, and Russia, here you can read the report from the debate written by Tomáš Moudrý. During the debate, it was discussed, for example, that despite the considerable geographical distance, the EU and the Indo-Pacific region are now more interconnected than ever before and both sides are seeking to strengthen their partnership in many areas, with security policy now one of the most important due to many factors.
Topic:: Security, European Union, Partnerships, Geopolitics, Dialogue, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia-Pacific

38. EU lessons from the evacuation of Kabul: Part 1 – What went wrong? The decision-making moments

Author:: Mihai Sebastian Chihaia and Georg Riekeles
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: What went wrong in Kabul and what were the critical junctures in the West’s decision-making? This Paper explores these two questions in detail. Two moments stand out in the chaotic evacuation from Kabul: the establishment of the military withdrawal schedule in mid-April and when all the countries involved scrambled to get their civilians out too. What is clear is that EU institutions were not prepared and were equally blindsided by the speed of events and decisions. This Paper shows that the dereliction of prudence, planning and duty also extends to the EU. This is the first paper of a three-part Report examining the evacuation of Kabul, and the combined failures of NATO and the EU, amid the war in Ukraine. The Report is structured in three parts: A description of the central decision moments leading up to and during the evacuation from Afghanistan. An assessment of the main factors contributing to failure in anticipation, planning and execution. Recommendations regarding the EU’s crisis management architecture and capacity in the context of the implementation of the Strategic Compass.
Topic:: NATO, Military Affairs, European Union, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and South Asia

39. EU lessons from the evacuation of Kabul: Part 2 – Critical factors in the failure to prepare for evacuation

Author:: Mihai Sebastian Chihaia and Georg Riekeles
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: The EU has yet to engage in a comprehensive ex-post evaluation of the factors of failure ahead of and during the critical summer months in 2021. By failing to deal with the past, one also does not learn about the future. Building on the preceding chapter’s analysis of the events leading up to and during the evacuation of Kabul, this paper identifies three main factors in the West’s Kabul fiasco: a collective failure of anticipation, NATO groupthink and dependence on the US, and the absence of European will and capabilities. This is the second Paper of a three-part Report examining the evacuation of Kabul, and the combined failures of NATO and the EU, amid the war in Ukraine. The Report is structured in three parts: A description of the central decision moments leading up to and during the evacuation from Afghanistan. An assessment of the main factors contributing to failure in anticipation, planning and execution. Recommendations regarding the EU’s crisis management architecture and capacity in the context of the implementation of the Strategic Compass.
Topic:: NATO, Military Affairs, European Union, Crisis Management, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Europe

40. Assessing the European Citizens' Panels: Greater ambition needed

Author:: Johannas Greubel, Perle Petit, and Andrey Demidov
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: More than a year has passed since the Conference on the Future of Europe (CoFoE) concluded its unprecedented, deliberative exercise that put citizens front and centre in the discussions on the future of the EU. An inter-institutional effort by the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the Council, the CoFoE brought citizens together in four transnational citizens’ panels to discuss several topics in view of developing a series of recommendations on the future of Europe. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reassured participants at the closing event that this interactive experiment would not be a one-off. It was the first time in EU history that the Brussels’ executive agreed to create space for input from transnational Citizens’ Panels to formulate new legislation. Following the conclusion of the first pilot ECPs and with the upcoming European Parliament elections, this EU Democracy Reform Observatory Report looks at this significant point in time and asks: can these efforts live beyond the political commitment of the von der Leyen Commission and become an established institutional process? Having observed the Panels and interviewed their organisers, the authors analyse the ECPs across three areas: Institutional design: what are the institution’s objectives when conducting these Panels, and how do they fit into the Commission’s current policymaking cycle? Methodological design: did the Panels lead to tangible outcomes, which can be useful for decision-makers, and how can the process be improved? Political effects: what is the Panels’ political value and how do they fit into the Union’s broader institutional landscape and existing participatory infrastructure?
Topic:: Public Opinion, European Union, Citizenship, Institutions, European Parliament, and European Commission
Political Geography:: Europe

41. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker Q3 2023

Author:: Joël Reland
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: UK in a Changing Europe’s series of regulatory divergence trackers provide an overview of where and how the UK has used its regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU regulation. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the ninth edition of the regulatory divergence tracker, covering developments from August to October 2023. There are six cases of active divergence (where the UK, or some part of it, changes its rules); nine of passive divergence (where the EU changes its rules and the UK, or some part of it, does not follow); two of delayed divergence (where active divergence is delayed); and five of active alignment (where the UK takes steps to align more closely with EU rules, systems or programmes). In a what is now a recurring theme under Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, the UK has opted to delay some major cases of upcoming divergence.
Topic:: European Union, Regulation, and Divergence
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

42. Exploring ‘Bregret’: public attitudes to Brexit, seven years on

Author:: Ines Wittke, James Frayne, Seb Wride, and Sophie Stowers
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: Brexit refuses to go away. Over seven years since the referendum, and over three and a half since the UK finally left the European Union, the issue continues to generate headlines and spark furious debate. One reason for this is a sense that public opinion is still evolving. There has been much talk of ‘Brexit regret’ among Leave voters. Given this, Public First and UK in a Changing Europe decided to talk to Leave voters to hear from them what they thought. In a survey carried out in May and June 2023 and a series of focus groups held between May and September, a series of questions were posed to them about what they think about Brexit, how it has gone, whether they have changed their minds and what they think the future holds. This report describes the findings. DOWNLOAD THE REPORT
Topic:: Politics, Public Opinion, European Union, Brexit, and Society
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

43. Reviewing the Trade and Cooperation Agreement: potential paths

Author:: Jannike Wachowiak and Joël Reland
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: On Christmas Eve 2020 the UK and EU finally agreed a treaty to regulate their relationship post Brexit. The Trade and Cooperation Agreement was provisionally applied from 1 January 2021 and formally ratified in April. Among its numerous provisions, the treaty contains Article 776 stating that, ‘The Parties shall jointly review the implementation of this Agreement and supplementing agreements and any matters related thereto five years after the entry into force of this Agreement and every five years thereafter.’ Within the UK at least, many are looking to this review to deliver significant changes to the relationship. This report examines those provisions within the TCA and reflects on what might or might not reasonably be achieved in the context of the review. The report proposes three models which the review could follow: a technical check, acting on unfulfilled commitments, and widening the scope of the TCA.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Trade, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

44. The investment gap: the UK’s efforts to replace the European Investment Bank

Author:: Peter Jurkovic and Stephen Hunsaker
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: Following Brexit, the UK lost access to funding from the European Investment Bank. In this report, Stephen Hunsaker and Peter Jurkovic detail the impact this has had on the UK development finance landscape. The report outlines not only the role that development banks play in providing longer term financing for projects the private sector might be reluctant to support, but also the specific role the European Investment Bank played in infrastructure investments in the UK prior to 2020. It also explores the potential and ongoing implications of a lack of access to that investment despite the existence of a number of UK based banks intended to fill the gap.
Topic:: European Union, Finance, Economy, Brexit, Investment, Banking, and European Investment Bank
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

45. Policy landscape 2023

Author:: Ben Zaranko, Jonathan Portes, Mike Brewer, Paul Cheshire, and Carole Willis
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: What are the public policy challenges confronting the UK? What plans do the parties have for addressing them? To what extent are these plans fit for purpose? As Parliament returns from its summer recess, Full Fact and UK in a Changing Europe have partnered to produce a series of evidence led, research-based assessments of the key issues that politicians will confront. To do this, we brought together a group of leading experts from respected institutions including the Health Foundation, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, and the Royal United Services Institute. We asked each of them to consider, based on the findings of their own research, the challenges the country faces in their area of expertise, the immediate and longer-term issues politicians will need to address, and the potential implications of any choices they might make. We selected the issues based on the Ipsos issues index, and added security, defence and foreign affairs, which did not figure amongst the public’s priorities in July of this year. The intention of the collection is to inform and not persuade. Each article in this collection is the responsibility of its author.
Topic:: Climate Change, Education, Health, Politics, European Union, Economy, Brexit, Economic Growth, Public Policy, Fiscal Policy, Housing, and Standard of Living
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

46. UK-EU relations tracker: April – June 2023

Author:: Cleo Davies and Jannike Wachowiak
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: This is the second edition of the UKICE UK-EU Relations Tracker, covering developments in relations between the UK and EU and between the UK and EU member states from April to June 2023. This edition looks at key developments in the relationship since the formal adoption of the Windsor Framework on 24 March 2023 which had raised hopes for a reset in relations. Whilst some progress has been made within the framework of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), other areas remain stalled.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Brexit, and Trade
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

47. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: eighth edition

Author:: Joël Reland
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: UK in a Changing Europe’s series of regulatory divergence trackers provide an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU regulation. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the eighth edition of the UK in a Changing Europe’s regulatory divergence tracker, covering developments from April to July 2023. There are eleven cases of active divergence (where the UK, or some part of it, changes its rules); eight of passive divergence (where the EU changes its rules and the UK, or some part of it, does not follow); two of passive convergence (where the EU takes steps which align with UK rules); three of managed divergence (where the UK and EU make joint efforts to manage the implications of divergence); and one of internal divergence (changes in rules between different parts of the UK).
Topic:: European Union, Regulation, Brexit, and Divergence
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

48. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: seventh edition

Author:: Joël Reland
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: UK in a Changing Europe’s series of regulatory divergence trackers provide an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU regulation. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the seventh edition of UK in a Changing Europe’s regulatory divergence tracker, covering developments since January 2023. There are seven cases of active divergence (where the UK, or some part of it, changes its rules); two of active convergence (where the UK, or some part of it, aligns to EU rules); 17 of passive divergence (where the EU changes its rules and the UK, or some part of it, does not follow); and one of internal divergence (changes in rules between different parts of the UK). In addition, the Windsor Framework is significant case of ‘managed divergence’: a UK-EU agreement which alters the regulatory border between Great Britain (GB) and Northern Ireland (NI), as created by the Protocol.
Topic:: European Union, Regulation, Brexit, and Divergence
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

49. UK-EU relations tracker: first edition

Author:: Cleo Davies and Sophie Stowers
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: This new UK in a Changing Europe tracker provides an overview of the state of relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union. The first edition, which covers January to March 2023, highlights the thawing in relations between the UK and the EU that has taken place during this period in the context of the agreement of the Windsor Framework in late February 2023. Released quarterly, the UK-EU relations tracker will assess relations between the UK and EU as well as relationships between the UK and EU member states. It will also highlight developments in British politics which may affect the UK-EU relationship, and internal dynamics within the EU that might shape its approach to the relationship with the United Kingdom.
Topic:: International Relations, Politics, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

50. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: sixth edition

Author:: UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: UK in a Changing Europe’s series of regulatory divergence trackers provide an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU regulation. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the sixth edition of the divergence tracker, covering developments since October 2022. There are six cases of active divergence (where the UK or some part of it changes its rules), 13 of passive divergence (where the EU changes its rules and the UK, or some part of it, does not follow), two of active alignment (where the UK and EU take the same regulatory steps in parallel), and five of delayed divergence (where either side postpones an upcoming case of divergence). This edition of the tracker finds that the UK has engaged in less active divergence over the past quarter. This is due in part to political instability, but also to Prime Minister Sunak’s emphasis on calming the markets and projecting a wider sense of political stability. The new administration has signalled its ambition to reform EU legislation, though in a more targeted manner than under the two preceding premierships.
Topic:: European Union, Regulation, Brexit, and Divergence
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

51. Where next? The future of the UK-EU relationship

Author:: UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: Six and a half years since the Brexit referendum, UK relations with the EU have still not settled into a coherent and consistent pattern. Partly, this is because the process of leaving itself took so long. Partly, too, because there is much still to resolve, not least whether the treaties signed will be fully applied. This report examines the contours of that relationship. It assesses both where we have got to and how the relationship might evolve. The reports sets out the state of play on trade, migration, public opinion, as well as the various party positions on the relationship. It also highlights the deadlines and decisions on the horizon in a number of areas, such as financial services, electric vehicles and fisheries. Finally, it examines the ways in which the TCA could be deepened, and steps that might be taken beyond the TCA – both unilaterally and through increased cooperation with the EU – concluding that changes to the relationship are likely to be slow and incremental.
Topic:: International Relations, Migration, Treaties and Agreements, Public Opinion, European Union, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

52. Transatlantic Trends 2023: Public Opinion in a Shifting Global Order

Author:: Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, Martin Quencez, and Gusine Weber
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Transatlantic Trends 2023 presents the results of representative surveys conducted in 14 countries on both sides of the Atlantic: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden, Türkiye, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Divided into five chapters, this report assesses public opinion on contemporary structural issues impacting the world order, transatlantic relations, security and defense, China, and global challenges.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: China, United Kingdom, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, France, Poland, Germany, Global Focus, and United States of America

53. The Potential Impact of Ukrainian Accession on the EU’s Budget

Author:: Michael Emerson
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: If hypothetically Ukraine was already today a full EU Member State, it could be benefitting from around EUR 18-19 billion of receipts from the EU budget, net of contributions – i.e. roughly within the range of Poland and Romania scaled to fit Ukraine. At current rates, this would mean an increase in GNI-based contributions by all Member States of around 10 %, with only Spain changing from a (small) net beneficiary to a (small) net payer. However, this is only a simple ‘static’ reference number for a more complex and realistic assessment with many ‘dynamic’ factors that could reduce this amount by the time Ukraine might actually accede over the course of the next decade. These can include catching up to the relative prosperity of Poland and Romania, possibly making budgetary room for poorer new Member States, and control valves with capping mechanisms for budget spending on cohesion and agriculture. Both capping mechanisms would need reform, but there is room for negotiation of mutually acceptable outcomes. It is sometimes rumoured that the Ukraine bill would turn all of today’s net beneficiaries into net payers to the EU budget. Our calculations show that this speculation, or maybe disinformation, is absolutely unfounded. The EU’s proposed new EUR 50 billion Ukraine Facility for 2024 to 2027, averaging EUR 12.5 billion per year in grants and loans, is already not so far behind the static estimate for full membership. There are further huge uncertainties affecting the outcome – how the war may end, how far donors and investors other than the EU will contribute to reconstruction, and the idea of ‘Making Russia pay,’ given most of its frozen EUR 300 billion assets are held in the EU. Overall, the budgetary aspect of Ukraine’s possible accession looks relatively manageable, compared to other more intractable political, economic, demographic, and security issues. Three recommendations are presented, including on the need for the European Commission to inform public debate along the lines of the present paper to avoid speculation over exaggerated concerns.
Topic:: Budget, European Union, Regional Integration, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

54. Europe after the War

Author:: Rym Ayadi, Paolo Garonna, and Goran Svilanovic
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: This book, a collaboration between CEPS and the Euro-Mediterranean Economists Association (EMEA), is a collection of papers which discuss the impact of the war in Ukraine on Europe spanning a wide range of areas from geopolitical scenarios to economic prospects, sustainable energy to logistics, and the Eastern European dimension to EU-Africa relations. The authors of this book believe that we are living an unprecedented ‘European moment’, and that this moment can and should be seized upon to respond to present and future shocks. Both the papers collected in this volume and the manifesto presented point out the most promising directions of the leap forward that is required – more assertive and unified policies towards Eastern Europe, the Euro-Mediterranean region and Africa, a federalist drive towards more effective and fairer economic and social governance, the fight against polarisation, and the strengthening of liberal democracy.
Topic:: European Union, Finance, Cooperation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Mediterranean

55. Kosovo citizens’ perceptions on EU integration, Kosovo-Serbia bilateral relations, and Regional Cooperation

Author:: Dea Fetiu and Gramos Sejdiu
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: This report of Western Balkans Security Barometer analyzes the Kosovo citizens’ perceptions on EU integration, Kosovo-Serbia bilateral relations, and Regional Cooperation. Over the course of our measurement period, the public perception of EU integration has consistently maintained a high level of support. In 2020, 92.5 percent of citizens expressed support, followed by 92.3 percent in 2021, and 94.2 percent in 2022. These findings indicate a stable and high level of support for the integration process, with no significant changes observed over the last three years. Turning to the citizens’ perceptions of the Kosovo-Serbia bilateral relations and the dialogue process, the second part of the report highlights an increase in support for the dialogue among Kosovo citizens. In 2021, 74.3 percent expressed their support to the dialogue, which rose to 83 percent in 2022. Furthermore, the chapter touches upon the shift of citizens’ perspectives on the impact of the dialogue on Kosovo – Serbia relations, with 40 percent of the respondents believing it had improved in 2022 compared to 14.6 percent in 2021. A majority of respondents (68.8 percent) expressed support for regional cooperation in the Western Balkans, indicating a positive inclination among Kosovo’s population. Additionally, respondents consistently expressed support for free movement, information exchange, and the establishment of a common market for goods and workforce in the Western Balkans. When specifically asked about the Open Balkan Initiative, responses were very divided and varied over the years, with fluctuating levels of support and opposition. Overall, the findings highlight the strong aspiration for EU integration and the continuation of the Kosovo – Serbia dialogue, with citizens understanding the complexity and challenges of both processes and the challenges ahead.
Topic:: Security, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, European Union, Regional Integration, Survey, and Perception
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

56. Promoting the Inclusion of Europe’s Migrants and Minorities in Arts and Culture

Author:: Lucía Salgado and Liam Patuzzi
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Decades of sustained immigration have transformed many European cities into mosaics of different cultures. Yet this diversity is not always mirrored in the art celebrated in museums, the plays produced in major theaters, and the music heard in concert halls. In addition, well-intended efforts to celebrate ethnic and cultural diversity through art and culture run the risk of overemphasizing differences, exoticizing minority groups rather than contributing to the normalization of diversity within society. But this status quo may be changing. Widespread anti-racism protests have prompted long-overdue conversations about mis- and under-representation of minorities as well as discrimination in the cultural scene. At the same time, pandemic-related restrictions have placed further financial strains on the already fragile cultural sector, challenging organizations to reach new audiences in new ways. This MPI Europe report, which draws on interviews with cultural professionals from 11 European countries, explores approaches to strengthening the participation of migrant and minority communities in arts and culture, with potential benefits for immigrant integration outcomes, social cohesion, and the vibrancy and sustainability of cultural institutions. It examines migrants’ and minorities’ inclusion on three levels: as visitors of cultural venues and consumers of art, as featured artists and performers, and as leaders and staff within cultural institutions. The research was conducted within the framework of the Urban Agenda Partnership on the Inclusion of Migrants and Refugees, co-led by the City of Amsterdam and the European Commission and funded by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Migration and Home Affairs.
Topic:: Migration, Arts, Culture, Minorities, European Union, Integration, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Europe

57. Securing Semiconductor Supply Chains: An Affirmative Agenda for International Cooperation

Author:: William Alan Reinsch, Emily Benson, and Aidan Arasasingham
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Technological innovation has been a driving force for U.S. global leadership and economic prosperity for over a century. This legacy of innovation largely stands on the foundation of a key component: semiconductor chips, found today in almost all electronic products. Semiconductors are an integral component of various consumer products across industries, including cars, smartphones, and household appliances. But semiconductors can also be used in dual-use goods—products that have both military and civilian applications—such as air guidance systems for both civilian and military aircraft. The tension between economic gain and security risk inherent within dual-use semiconductor goods is heightened in fields with national security implications, such as supercomputing and artificial intelligence (AI). How the government and private sector manage the global value chains (GVCs) of chips will directly affect U.S. global competitiveness and national security going forward. Given the evolving security relationship between the United States, the Quad, and the European Union, this paper focuses on both Quad and EU countries and the possibilities for friend-shoring in both. It assesses how the EU and U.S. governments can collaborate to avoid duplicative policies that fail to enhance the overall resiliency of transatlantic semiconductor supply chains.
Topic:: International Relations, Science and Technology, European Union, Transatlantic Relations, Supply Chains, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

58. Implications of the European Union’s Digital Regulations on U.S. and EU Economic and Strategic Interests

Author:: Kati Suominen
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: In recent months, the European Union has adopted several sweeping digital regulations, such as the Digital Services Act (DSA) and Digital Markets Act (DMA), while proposing a number of new measures—including the Data Act, the Artificial Intelligence Act, and the Media Freedom Act. These regulations will shape, likely quite dramatically, the environment for doing digital business in Europe and beyond. They will have profound implications on the leading U.S. digital service providers designated by the European Union as “gatekeepers”—large digital services providers that are expected to adhere to regulatory requirements—as well as these companies’ hundreds of millions of transatlantic European business and individual customers. By impacting primarily U.S. companies instead of Asian or European ones, Europe’s digital policies will also shape U.S. and European global strategic and national security interests. This study will assess the potential implications of new and proposed EU digital acts on U.S. digital service providers, on their customers in Europe and the United States, and on the EU and U.S. economies and exports.
Topic:: European Union, Regulation, Regionalism, Strategic Interests, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

59. Software Power The Economic and Geopolitical Implications of Open Source Software

Author:: Alice Pannier
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Open source plays a central role in software development, both in parallel with proprietary software and increasingly intertwined with it. It has become a major factor for companies’ innovation processes and for the success and popularity of their products. For users, using open source software can alleviate risks stemming from proprietary solutions, including data privacy concerns or trade restrictions. Beyond that, open source is the foundation of critical software bricks and Internet languages and protocols. However, open source is a victim of its own success. It suffers of a lack of resources dedicated to the maintenance of open source components, even though vulnerabilities in open source code can have serious consequences, as illustrated by the Log4Shell vulnerability in December 2021. For these reasons, private companies are investing ever more money and human resources in the development and maintenance of open source software, and acquiring structuring roles in the governance of the ecosystem. This support, however, is not without risk for the open source ecosystem, which is increasingly shaped by the private interests of Big Tech companies. Meanwhile, governments are getting increasingly concerned with the cybersecurity implications of open source software, and with risks not only of accidental vulnerabilities, but also manipulation of codes by criminals and foreign agents. The interest of governments in open source is not new, but it is evolving: governments are no longer only seeking to adopt open source or to develop software solutions, but also to contribute to the financing or even the governance of open source ecosystems, at the national and/or global level. An analysis of the United States, Chinese and European cases show that government involvement in open source is not only pragmatic; it is increasingly politicized, and serves to uphold governments’ ambitions for national security, international influence, or digital sovereignty. The study highlights the dilemmas that emerge, for public authorities, from the tensions between the desire to secure universally used, critical open source components, the desire to develop “sovereign” technologies, and the risk of encroaching on the horizontal and decentralized functioning of open source.
Topic:: European Union, Cybersecurity, Geopolitics, Economy, Software, and Open Source
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and United States of America

60. Germany’s Position on CSDP: Is There Anything for the Baltics?

Author:: Margarita Šešelgytė and Emilė Indrašiūtė
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: In the third brief in our Germany and Baltic Security series, Margarita Šešelgytė and Emilė Indrašiūtė examine Germany’s approach to the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy and the broader question of Europe’s strategic autonomy and consider whether Germany’s policies align with Baltic views. Following Russia’s 2014 illegal annexation of Crimea and intervention in eastern Ukraine, Germany not only strengthened its contribution to NATO’s collective defence and deterrence, but also took a greater role in shaping EU security and defence policies, a field it had previously shied away from. Germany’s involvement was instrumental in ensuring that the EU’s Permanent Structured Cooperation was implemented in a form that is more palatable to Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, and that the debate on European strategic autonomy was broadened and blunted to be more in tune with Baltic positions. Germany’s policy positions on European defence are unlikely to shift dramatically under Chancellor Scholz. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania will continue to look to Germany to balance France’s ambitions during its Presidency of the European Council and beyond.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, European Union, Strategic Autonomy, and Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP)
Political Geography:: Germany, Estonia, and Baltic States

61. Geopolitics of Europe’s Hydrogen Aspirations: Creating Sustainable Equilibrium or a Combustible Mix?

Author:: Tomas Jermalavicius, Tomas Janeliūnas, Andrian Prokip, Iliya Kusa, Alan Riley, Andrei V. Belyi, Pier Paolo Raimondi, and Miguel Sainz de Vicuña
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: Discussions about hydrogen’s role in the transition to carbon-neutral economies and the EU’s Green Deal seldom include consideration of geopolitical aspects and/or national security imperatives. However, given the importance of energy as a factor in global and regional geopolitical trends and national security, hydrogen development will reshape not only energy relations between countries but will also alter the broader geopolitical picture. While elevating new aspects of geopolitical interplays, such as the importance of technology and regional clusters, hydrogen development might also unwittingly transplant present-day challenges—such as excessive dependence on the energy supply from hostile powers—into the carbon-neutral future. Since Europe’s energy sovereignty and geopolitical role in its neighbourhood could be at stake, the nexus of geopolitics, energy security and hydrogen development should be given serious attention. At the same time, the transformative socioeconomic impact of energy transition will create winners and losers within and between nations, which in some cases will have national security implications; hydrogen development could offer ways to mitigate this. This report focuses on exploring the impact that the European Union’s ambitions and plans for hydrogen development—including an expansion of its infrastructure in the form of the European Hydrogen Backbone—on its geopolitical position up to 2040. It first looks into the greater detail of the EU Hydrogen Strategy and how it links with the Energy Union, as well as with European strategic autonomy and energy sovereignty issues. It finds that hydrogen development—alongside the growth of the renewable energy sector—offers a great opportunity to reduce the current exposure to hostile actors through the energy sector that often hampers Europe’s ability to act as a geopolitical force in its neighbourhood. However, it also warns that the lack of unity and coherence currently afflicting the Energy Union, and manifest in such recent controversies as the Nord Stream 2 undersea gas pipeline from Russia to Germany before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, could potentially weaken such a positive geopolitical impact of hydrogen. Although hydrogen development requires Europe to draw upon external suppliers, the fact that this supply can come from many countries provides a significant opportunity for diversification and reducing the potency of energy supply as a geopolitical weapon. In this regard, two directions stand out in the EU’s neighbourhood—Ukraine in the east, and the Mediterranean along with the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to the south. Both have huge potential for playing major roles in the European hydrogen supply chains, and their cultivation by the EU would provide many opportunities both to strengthen the EU’s influence in its neighbourhood and to build new partnerships. Certainly, neither of those directions comes without risks and downsides: political instability and armed conflicts, poor governance, unstable investment environment, water scarcity, and in some cases dependence on the hydrocarbons industry for income will be significant factors hampering the efforts to unlock their potential. Ukraine in particular will require sustained reconstruction efforts to tackle the massive devastation caused by Russia’s war. This will divert resources and attention, but transforming its energy sector and developing its hydrogen production base could still be important strands of these efforts. Europe’s own potential for domestic hydrogen production is another direction that this report looks into as a way to disentangle from the present-day geopolitically toxic dependencies and enhance its energy sovereignty. The Baltic states and Finland represent an interesting case study on how hydrogen could underpin a regional cooperation cluster with a high degree of integration—one of the new characteristics of the hydrogen era that will have geopolitical implications. The report, however, finds that different national perspectives on hydrogen, lack of coordination, and certain issues of trust arising from recent failures of solidarity and unity when tackling the regional nexus of energy security and geopolitics might hamper future regional cooperation in hydrogen. The hydrogen economy also offers some important benefits in managing national security challenges at the national level. In Estonia, the loss of the fossil fuel-based industry in the highly sensitive north-eastern region of Ida-Virumaa will be a socioeconomic blow to the local population. This report highlights how the vulnerability of the region, dominated by the Russian-speaking ethnic minorities who are already highly exposed to Russia’s malignant influence activities, could imperil Estonia’s energy transition and its national security. Creating a national hydrogen cluster in this region, drawing upon its industrial infrastructure and human capital, could mitigate the consequences of decarbonisation and energy transition. However, these considerations do not seem to receive sufficient attention from the government and energy businesses when drawing Estonia’s hydrogen map of the future. The report recommends that various stakeholders in the EU—including those behind the European Hydrogen Backbone—continuously monitor and assess the geopolitical risks, especially in terms of their impact on European energy sovereignty, when creating and managing new hydrogen-related interdependencies with the regions and countries outside the EU. The report urges the EU to support energy transition and necessary market and governance reforms in post-war Ukraine and the MENA countries to facilitate their emergence as crucial and reliable partners in hydrogen value chains. The report also recommends closer coordination and common planning between hydrogen stakeholders of the Baltic states and Finland when forming a regional cluster of hydrogen supply that would contribute to European energy sovereignty. Last but not least, it suggests that, for national security and resilience reasons, Estonia should focus more attention on the Ida-Virumaa region when developing its national hydrogen roadmap.
Topic:: Security, European Union, Geopolitics, Hydrogen, and Energy
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, North Africa, and Baltic States

62. France Should Embrace the Transatlantic Relationship—and Help Lead It

Author:: Angélique Talmor
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: French President Emmanuel Macron’s assertion three years ago that the transatlantic alliance was “braindead” rings as utterly misguided today.1 The resurgence of war in Europe has reinforced NATO’s raison d’être and forced Europeans to face the fact that there is no realistic alternative to transatlantic cooperation. Further, more European policy leaders recognize China’s increasing threat,2 which bolsters the case for Western “friend shoring” on defense and other issues. This process will require leadership on both sides of the Atlantic. France, the largest military power in the European Union and the second-largest EU economy, is more reluctant to embrace Atlanticism than most of its NATO counterparts. This hesitance risks limiting the success and scope of efforts to reinforce transatlantic cooperation. Nonetheless, in the evolving geopolitical context, France’s best shot at preserving its interests and influence would be through embracing Atlanticism and helping lead the reinforcement of transatlantic cooperation in the realm of defense and beyond. American policymakers should encourage and extend a hand to their oldest ally to embrace such a shift.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, European Union, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, France, North America, and United States of America

63. Lighting the Path: Framing a Transatlantic Technology Strategy

Author:: Carisa Nietsche, Emily Jin, Hannah Kelley, Emily Kilcrease, and Megan Lamberth
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: The world’s leading powers are engaged in an unprecedented technology competition. Autocratic regimes are advancing a vision for technology use—a techno-totalitarianism that entrenches authoritarian rule—that directly opposes the interests of democratic states. This vision, which includes control over key economic inputs, the domination of supply chains, breakthrough capabilities in emerging technologies, and unfettered surveillance, threatens to upend a decades-old rules-based system that promotes economic competitiveness and freedoms, supports democratic values, and protects fundamental rights. How this technology competition unfolds will shape the global economic, political, and military balance for decades. Collaboration among the world’s tech-leading democracies will be essential to maximize the odds of a favorable outcome. Perhaps the most important factor in this dynamic is reimagining the long-standing transatlantic partnership to meet this challenge. To succeed, the United States and Europe must compete or risk ceding the competition to autocracies. They must be guided by a strategy that matches the moment. Yet no such strategy currently exists. This report aims to light that path by developing the contours of a transatlantic technology strategy. This framework has a two-part approach. First, it identifies persistent friction in technology policy between the United States and Europe. The transatlantic partners must align approaches, when possible, and manage disagreement in the relationship to pave the way for a cooperative agenda. Second, this report advances a promote and protect agenda to ensure U.S. and EU economic security and long-term technological competitiveness. The report covers seven areas in which transatlantic cooperation will be key: artificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology, clean energy technology, information and communications technology and services (ICTS), quantum information science and technology (QIST), semiconductors, and standard-setting. This report offers concrete, actionable recommendations to maintain the transatlantic partners’ technological edge, ensure economic competitiveness, and protect democratic values. Ultimately, the report charts a blueprint for transatlantic success in a wide-ranging and consequential technology competition.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Partnerships, Transatlantic Relations, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

64. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: third edition

Author:: Joël Reland, Jill Rutter, and Anand Menon
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: This is the third edition of the UK in a Changing Europe’s UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker, covering 27 cases of divergence since December 2021. There are fourteen cases of active divergence (where the UK – or some part of it – takes steps to move away from retained EU law), ten of passive divergence (where the EU legislates and the UK – or some part – does not follow), and three of procedural divergence (where the UK has to introduce new systems to manage policy absent substantive divergence). There are also eleven cases with an additional ‘internal impact’ label, to indicate where UK-EU divergence is leading either to divergence in regulation between different parts of the UK, or has some other impact on the operation of relations between the four UK governments.
Topic:: European Union, Regulation, and Brexit
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

65. The state of the European Union

Author:: Anand Menon and Simon Usherwood
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: In ‘The State of the European Union’, some of the most respected scholars working on the EU provide their analysis of its current state, looking, in turn, at member states, at the EU institutions, at a number of policy areas and cross-cutting political themes and at EU relations with key external partners. This is a crucial moment in the history of the European Union. It has taken on new responsibilities in the face of new challenges and now must deliver, whilst simultaneously managing deep and potentially debilitating divisions between member states. There is all to play for.
Topic:: International Relations, European Union, Regional Integration, and Institutions
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

66. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: fourth edition

Author:: UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: UK in a Changing Europe’s series of regulatory divergence trackers provide an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU regulation. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the fourth edition of the tracker, covering changes which have taken place since March 2022.
Topic:: European Union, Regulation, and Brexit
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

67. The Northern Ireland Protocol Bill: context and consequences

Author:: Catherine Barnard, Joelle Grogan, Katy Hayward, Andrew McCormick, and Jill Rutter
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: The UK government introduced a piece of primary legislation, the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, in response to concerns over the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland. This report explains some of the context to the Bill, the conditions in which it has emerged and its potential ramifications for Northern Ireland, the UK, the EU, and UK-EU relations. It also considers a number of ways in which the stand-off over the Protocol might be resolved. The report brings together the insights of several experts: Catherine Barnard (University of Cambridge, and UKICE), Joelle Grogan (UKICE), Katy Hayward (Queen’s University Belfast), Andrew McCormick (formerly lead official on Brexit for the Northern Ireland Executive) and Jill Rutter (UKICE).
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Constitution, and Brexit
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and Northern Ireland

68. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: fifth edition

Author:: UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: UK in a Changing Europe’s series of regulatory divergence trackers provide an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU regulation. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the fifth edition of the tracker, covering changes which have taken place since May 2022. It finds there are 13 cases of active divergence (where the UK or some part of it changes its rules), nine of passive divergence (where the EU changes its rules and the UK does not follow), and three of procedural divergence (changes in the systems for managing pre-existing divergence). In addition, there are two cases of a new category – legal action – where the actions of one side result in the other initiating a legal dispute.
Topic:: European Union, Regulation, and Brexit
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

69. A beginner’s guide to the European Union

Author:: UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: UK in a Changing Europe is launching a new series of ‘beginner’s guides’ – quick, easy guides to the most pressing issues, important institutions and divisive debates in politics and society today. We’re kicking off our series with a guide to the European Union, an institution encompassing around 47,000 staff, seven institutions, over thirty agencies, and a population of almost 450 million. It’s pretty complicated, to say the least. But here we have tried to set out in an accessible and straightforward way what the EU is and how it came to be, what its institutions are and what they do, the EU budget, and how the EU makes and enforces laws and regulations. This guide is perfect for those who are learning about European institutions and multilevel governance for the first time during their politics A-level. It will also be useful for undergraduate students beginning their studies in law, politics and economics who want to know more about how the EU interacts with their chosen subject area, or seasoned professionals who just want a quick reminder on how member states and European bodies cooperate on key policy areas.
Topic:: Governance, European Union, and Institutions
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

70. Manufacturing after Brexit

Author:: David Bailey and Ivan Rajic
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: In mid-2020, UK in a Changing Europe published its report on the eﬀects of Brexit on UK manufacturing, and the likely eﬀects after the end of the transition period. The present report is an updated view of where UK manufacturing stands after Brexit. The report ﬁnds: The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) helped avoid tariﬀ barriers. However, non-tariﬀ barriers have returned, and the end of the transition period has brought adverse impacts for UK manufacturing. The TCA does not fully replace the frictionless trade and market integration that existed before it. The main adverse eﬀects have been: administrative barriers to trade (e.g. customs formalities, proving rules-of-origin requirements) disruptions to labour ﬂows, both aﬀecting certain manufacturing sectors directly (e.g. food and drinks) and indirectly harming manufacturing by damaging service sectors (e.g. logistics) that support it. The adverse impacts are for now mainly showing through reduced exports and imports to and from the EU (around 15% less for both, as compared to a no-Brexit scenario), and through some production disruptions. The ongoing conﬂicts around Northern Ireland probably represent the biggest risk to UK-EU relations, with the potential to aﬀect the entire TCA in case they escalate. Potential beneﬁts from Brexit have yet to be felt: – There has been some redirection of exports towards non-EU countries, but this has not compensated for the reduction in trade with the EU. The UK has signed only two truly new trade agreements, with New Zealand and Australia, the former still only ‘in principle’. Both countries account for a small fraction of total UK trade, and the expected beneﬁts of the trade agreements with them are minor. Trade negotiations with the US are currently stalled. Whether there is more progress on the trade front in the future remains to be seen. If there is more regulatory divergence from the EU going forward, it will become possible to see whether it will bring beneﬁts or disruptions to UK manufacturers. Any beneﬁts that may potentially arise out of Brexit will not happen automatically. The UK needs an active, integrated, and well-funded industrial policy, within a stronger devolution framework, if UK manufacturing is to beneﬁt from future growth opportunities. This is especially the case in the context of net zero, industry 4.0 and levelling up. The impact of Brexit on manufacturing is likely to be most profound in regions in the north and midlands. That in turn will make levelling up more challenging.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Economy, Brexit, Manufacturing, and Trade
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

71. Doing things differently? Policy after Brexit

Author:: UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: Brexit is done, but what does it mean? Doing things differently? Policy after Brexit brings together a number experts in their respective fields to investigate how policy and policymaking have changed in a range of sectors. We asked them to consider how changes so far compare to what was promised before Brexit, and to analyse what changes lie ahead and what their impact might be. Their contributions are divided into three sections: first, those policy areas (trade, immigration, agriculture, fisheries and subsidies) where Brexit compelled the UK to put in place alternative policies. Second, those retaining significant amounts of EU law where the government could think seriously about divergence (financial services, procurement, taxation, consumer protection, environmental policy, energy policy and aviation). A final section considers new or emergent sectors in which both the UK and EU are looking to dip their regulatory toes (climate change and net zero, data and digital, autonomous vehicles and bioscience).
Topic:: Agriculture, Immigration, European Union, Regulation, Brexit, Trade, Fishing, Subsidies, and Policymaking
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

72. An EU border across Britain: Scotland’s borders after independence

Author:: Katy Hayward and Nicola McEwen
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: This report, An EU border across Britain: Scotland’s borders after independence, considers the prospect of an independent Scotland within the European Union, not as a prediction, but to illustrate how Brexit has profoundly changed the context in which independence is contested and could be realised. If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, the Anglo-Scottish border would become not just an international border between Scotland and what remains of the UK, but a new land border between the EU and the UK. Some of the crossborder arrangements for an independent Scotland that had been envisaged in the 2014 referendum would no longer be possible as a result of the UK’s departure from the EU. Because we know what is required by the EU at its external borders, it is possible to outline the border-related ramifications for an independent Scotland with EU membership. Such ramifications centre upon the land border with its closest neighbour.
Topic:: Sovereignty, European Union, Brexit, Borders, Independence, and Referendum
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and Scotland

73. Realigning European Policy toward Palestine with Ground Realities

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Events in 2021 – particularly the Gaza war – put in sharp relief how much Europe’s policy toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict needs a refresh. The European Union and its member states should use the levers they have to push for their stated goal of a peaceful resolution.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Peace, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

74. Winter is Coming: The Baltics and The Russia-Ukraine War

Author:: Leon Hartwell, Agnė Rakštytė, Julia Ryng, and Ēriks Kristiāns Selga
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In this LSE IDEAS Special Report, the authors focus on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the Baltics. The report highlights both collective and country-level impacts and responses to the conflict. It is argued that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have been among the top supporters of Ukraine, not merely in terms of military aid, but also with regards to providing substantial diplomatic and humanitarian support during Ukraine’s darkest hour since the breakup of the Soviet Union. Moreover, it is argued that this literal and metaphorical winter will be a key challenge, not only for Ukraine, but also for the Baltics. Given how closely the fate of Ukraine is intertwined with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the manner in which the Baltics and NATO respond to the winter could significantly influence the Russia-Ukraine war. A key strategic priority for the Baltics and NATO should be to promote resilience of everything from defense to energy security. Accordingly, the Report concludes with a variety of key policy recommendations aimed at the Baltics, EU and NATO.
Topic:: Security, NATO, European Union, Conflict, Resilience, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Baltic States

75. Europe and the Geopolitics of 5G Walking a Technological Tightrope

Author:: Julien Nocetti
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The acute Sino-American tensions which started in 2018 have been coupled with controversies around 5G technology, exemplified by the spotlight placed on Chinese equipment manufacturer Huawei and the security risks associated with its use. For Europe, the 5G challenge at the international level is drawing a very complex landscape. Just like artificial intelligence, 5G materializes a very strong geopolitical sensitivity around the control of critical technologies. 5G is indeed critical because of its expected quasi-ubiquitous use, the gradual shift towards network technologies based entirely on software, and the potential strengthening of already dominant players (including digital platforms via cloud services). The United States-China rivalry is limiting the European Union’s room for action, against a backdrop of security considerations and low levels of investment. The continent’s various players (the European Commission, the main European powers, private players such as Nokia and Ericsson) have not adopted a uniform stance, reflecting an entanglement of technological dependencies on China and the United States. Meanwhile, the issue of semiconductors, symbolizing both the technological decline and the renewal of the EU’s ambitions, is fully integrated into the development of 5G. These chips constitute the "muscle" of the system and trigger new geo-economic challenges in which Europe must still find its place.
Topic:: European Union, Internet, 5G, Telecommunications, and Digital Sovereignty
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

76. Difficult Debate on an Intellectual Property Protection Waiver to Fight COVID-19

Author:: Szymon Zaręba
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The negotiations currently taking place at the WTO on the suspension of, among others, patent protection for vaccines and medicines against COVID-19, are at a standstill. This creates a risk of widening the rift between developing countries, which mostly support the idea, and some developed countries, which oppose it. It also makes it more difficult to increase the supply of patented items, particularly of vaccines, to an extent undermining other efforts by countries and international organisations to contain the pandemic. It is in the interest of Poland and the EU to overcome this impasse.
Topic:: Intellectual Property/Copyright, European Union, Vaccine, COVID-19, and WTO
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and Global Focus

77. The Road to Low-Carbon Economies in the EU's Arab Neighbourhood

Author:: Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: At the end of last year, Mediterranean Arab states (i.e., Egypt and Algeria) announced investments or tenders related to the production of renewable energy sources (RES). This is related to the pressure to move away from fossil fuels and the favourable conditions in these countries to produce solar energy. Although in the short term the EU cooperation with its Arab neighbours on RES might slow due to the war in Ukraine, in the longer perspective, given their capacities in this regard, it remains crucial in order for the EU to become independent on Russian energy.
Topic:: European Union, Economy, Fossil Fuels, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Europe, Algeria, and Mediterranean

78. Turkey's Role in the Russian-Ukrainian Negotiations

Author:: Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The Russian-Ukrainian negotiations held on 29 March in Istanbul demonstrates that Turkey is assuming the role of an intermediary. Its policy of balancing between Russia and Ukraine is backed by the majority of the Turkish public, which gives President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan more freedom to manoeuvre. Acting as an intermediary in the conflict may allow Turkey an opportunity to start improving the strained relations with the European Union and the United States.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, European Union, Conflict, and Negotiation
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine

79. Determinants of China's Policy Towards the War in Ukraine

Author:: Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: China’s position on the war in Ukraine depends mainly on the stabilisation of China’s internal situation before the 20th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress planned for autumn this year. By holding NATO responsible for the conflict, the CCP reinforces its rhetoric about the legitimacy of the rivalry with the U.S. China’s signals on supporting peace negotiations and not helping Russia to circumvent sanctions are intended to protect China from possible Western secondary sanctions. The prospect of further Sino-Russian cooperation should induce the EU to reduce its economic interdependence with China.
Topic:: War, Sanctions, European Union, Rivalry, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia

80. Austrian Migration Policy and the Events in Afghanistan and Belarus

Author:: Łukasz Ogrodnik
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Contrary to the government’s rhetoric about restrictive migration policy, Austria remains open to the settlement of people from outside the EU. The takeover of power by the Taliban in Afghanistan in the summer of 2021 and the intensifying crisis on the border between EU countries and Belarus stimulated the Austrian government in international forums in the field of migration. The prospects for cooperation with the V4 countries in this regard were heightened after interior minister Karl Nehammer was elevated to Chancellor.
Topic:: Government, International Cooperation, Migration, European Union, and Borders
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Europe, Austria, and Belarus

81. The Impact of the Russian Aggression Against Ukraine on the EU's Economy

Author:: Melchior Szczepanik
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: A spike in energy prices provoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will inhibit the economic rebound in the EU. Member States will have to face high inflation for longer than previously expected. Forced to increase spending, they also could postpone plans to reduce their debts. The conflict with Russia is mobilising the Community to speed up the development of renewable energy and reduce dependencies on third countries, especially authoritarian ones, in strategic sectors.
Topic:: Energy Policy, War, European Union, Economy, and Inflation
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

82. The EU's Prospects for Decoupling from Russian Gas

Author:: Maciej Zaniewicz
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The Russian aggression against Ukraine and cut-off of gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria have strengthened the arguments of supporters of EU independence from Russian gas. However, the prospect of a total embargo is still distant because of opposition from some countries, including Austria, Germany, and Hungary. As a result, the EU will focus on a gradual reduction in purchases of Russian gas, which will have a negative impact on the effectiveness of the sanctions against Russia. It is in Poland’s interest to strive for increasing the pace of diversification of gas supplies to the EU and reducing use.
Topic:: Sanctions, European Union, Gas, and Energy Dependence
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Poland, and Bulgaria

83. New Perspectives for Nuclear Energy in the EU

Author:: Maciej Zaniewicz and Zuzanna Nowak
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: EU countries opposing nuclear energy, mainly Austria and Germany, are trying to limit its development in the Union by using the dispute over the details of the “green taxonomy”. The Russian aggression against Ukraine, however, has strengthened the arguments of supporters of this technology. They present nuclear energy as a way to make Europe independent of Russian gas and oil imports while reducing CO2 emissions. The final shape of the delegated act supplementing the taxonomy and the date of its entry into force will significantly affect the future of new nuclear projects in the EU, including in Poland.
Topic:: Energy Policy, European Union, Carbon Emissions, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Germany, and Austria

84. Environment in Times of War: Climate and Energy Challenges in the Post-Soviet Region

Author:: Aldo Ferrari and Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: The impact of Russia’s war against Ukraine has been devastating both politically and environmentally. On top of the environmental damage directly caused by military operations, the invasion has put an abrupt end to the EU-Russia “green cooperation”, which had previously raised many hopes. At the same time, it has also shifted international attention away from climate and environmental concerns, which are particularly acute in the post-Soviet region. This Report analyses some of the main climate change and environmental issues in the post-Soviet space, providing an initial assessment of the invasion’s impact. The bulk of the latest scholarly and policy production on these matters focuses on Russia — given the country’s geopolitical and energy relevance. However, this analysis finds that environmental disasters such as the desertification of the Aral Sea transcend state borders and require a broader approach both from an analytic and policy standpoint.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, War, European Union, Post-Soviet Space, and Energy
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

85. A transformational moment? The EU's response to Russia's war in Ukraine

Author:: Sergio Carrera, Steven Blockmans, Malorie Schaus, Willem Pieter De Groen, and Tinatin Akhvlediani
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: It is often said that the EU is forged in crisis. After weathering what feels like so many crises over the past 15 years, the EU’s swift and decisive response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine has, for the most part, been welcomed as the EU finally getting a crisis right. In the first weeks of the war, the EU adopted an impressive series of sanctions, rapidly widening the net cast over growing numbers of targeted individuals and institutions. It has also provided over EUR 2 billion of ‘lethal aid’ to Ukraine to help it fight off the invaders, a notion that would have been absolutely unthinkable only a few short months ago. In advance of our 2022 edition of the annual CEPS Ideas Lab and harnessing our broad inhouse expertise, we gave our CEPS contributors a simple instruction for compiling this special report – to dive deep into their specialist areas and provide their perspective on whether the invasion and subsequent crisis is a true ‘game changer’ in terms of the EU’s immediate and ongoing policy response. Or, to put it another way, will 2022 be viewed by future historians as a year of genuine transformation, a transformation fuelled by the largest conventional conflict in Europe since the end of the Second World War? The picture that emerges from the fog of war is a fragmented one. A general conclusion is that while there have been some positive changes in certain policy areas (such as migration, sanctions, energy and climate), the use of the term ‘game changer’ is as of yet unwarranted. The only real exception here, and where an alleged transformation can be argued is really starting to place, is in security and defence policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sanctions, European Union, Crisis Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

86. Baseline Report on Gender-Based Violence in Kosovo: Community and Stakeholder Perceptions

Author:: Teuta Avdimetaj, Dea Fetiu, and Dorjeta Rukiqi
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: This report provides a baseline assessment of Gender-based Violence (GBV) in Kosovo, with a focus on exploring key trends and challenges based on community and stakeholder perspectives. In doing so, this report relies primarily on data gathered through Key Informant Interviews (KII) and Focus Group Discussions (FGD) to obtain insights from affected communities as they articulate the presence of the threat, the factors influencing its prevalence, and how they consider the approach should be to address it. Although the legal and strategic framework on Gender-based Violence is considered advanced and mostly in line with international standards and EU regulations, the lack of adequate funding and deeply entrenched patriarchal norms in Kosovo’s society make the implementation of these laws difficult to be put into practice.
Topic:: Crime, European Union, Women, Gender Based Violence, Community, Stakeholders, and Perception
Political Geography:: Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

87. Citizens' Perceptions on Kosovo's EU Integration Perspective and Regional and International Cooperation

Author:: Dea Fetiu and Shpat Balaj
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: This Western Balkans Security Barometer report examines the perceptions of Kosovo citizens about Kosovo's EU integration process, and the regional and international cooperation. This report consists of two sections. The first section analyzes the public perceptions towards the EU integration, Kosovo’s progress in fulfilling the EU membership criteria, the bilateral relations, and the influence of EU countries towards Kosovo, and an assessment of the EU as a mediator in the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia. The second section addresses regional cooperation within the Western Balkans countries, the bilateral relations, and the influence of these countries towards Kosovo. The analysis of this report is based on the results of the survey through face-to-face interviews with randomly selected respondents throughout Kosovo, in September, 2021.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Public Opinion, European Union, Regional Integration, and Perception
Political Geography:: Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

88. Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on the Global Energy Policy

Author:: Mamuka Komakhia
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: The Russia-Ukraine war has been going on for five months, and it can be said that it is a war that has changed the world, and not only in military and security terms. In this edition of “The Security Review”, we will discuss the food, energy, and transportation aspects of this conflict. Mamuka Komakhia deals with one of the most important aspects of the war - energy, and discusses Europe's dependence on Russian oil and gas and the possible scenarios to escape from it.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, War, European Union, Gas, Exports, Energy Dependence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

89. The geopolitics of digital financial technologies: A chance for Europe?

Author:: Brigitte Dekker, Arief Hühn, Pim Korsten, and Maaike Okano-Heijmans
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Geopolitical tensions are permeating the digital domain. During the 1990s, the emergence of the internet still involved optimism and high hopes for digital technology as a force for openness, connectedness and freedom for all. Yet contrary to these promises, a trend of centralization, is prevalent in the digital economy. This trend of centralization, with the subsequent problems of gatekeeping, ecosystem lock-in, disproportional rent-seeking and monopolists that set market rules, is now also evident in the financial industry. Whereas smaller financial technology (fintech) companies, including many European firms, revolutionized the financial sector in the 2000s – disrupting traditional banks and their vested interests – we now witness a concentration of power and data in this sector, either in incumbent firms or within Big Tech companies. In response, governments in China, the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) are devising regulations, while at the same time technology innovators are building a radically new infrastructure to underpin our financial sector: Decentralized Finance (DeFi). The geopolitical implications of this disruptive transformation of the financial sector – through both fintech and DeFi – require forward-looking government responses that protect and promote European interests in the long term. This Clingendael Report first reflects on these trends of centralization in digital finance and decentralization in ‘traditional finance’. The paper examines the relationship between geopolitics and finance and looks at the position of the EU and its member states. The analysis considers the medium to longer-term implications in the following three domains: economic competitiveness and innovation; financial–economic and social stability; and inclusivity and equality. Data governance, data protection and data portability between financial services are key concepts in each of these areas. Building on these insights, the report argues for a push towards greater awareness among European policymakers on the potentials of DeFi to counter Big Tech’s rising influence in the European financial system with a decentralized, human-centred and value-based system. At the same time, the regulatory and security risks of DeFi – and the trend of decentralization in general – must be addressed. The report also highlights the need to help people to develop digital skills and become responsible and resilient digital citizens, and calls for enhanced dialogues with officials and technology company executives in like-minded countries on current developments. New approaches, such as multi-stakeholder consultations and increased rapprochement with the open-source and crypto-communities, are needed to facilitate knowledge exchange and best practices that will improve (regulatory) responses.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Geopolitics, Internet, and Digital Finance
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and United States of America

90. Growing stronger together: Towards an EU–ASEAN digital partnership?

Author:: Maaike Okano-Heijmans and Brigitte Dekker
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: In December 2021, the EU and Singapore launched talks towards a digital partnership agreement that could prove a building block for broader EU–ASEAN cooperation. This Report assesses the strategic value of increased cooperation in the field of digital connectivity, also acknowledged in the EU’s Indo-Pacific strategy of September 2021, and considers the practical challenges and opportunities of stronger ties between the two blocs and their member states in this increasingly important realm. The authors argue that three domains could form the basis of a future, shared, EU–ASEAN approach to digital connectivity: (1) digital infrastructure; (2) data governance and digital trade regulation; and (3) the digital economy and financial technologies (fintech). A bloc-to-bloc approach should run in parallel with strengthened ties by the EU and its member states with specific ASEAN member states. Together, these building blocks will serve EU and ASEAN long-term interests, promoting economic competitiveness and inclusive growth, as well as openness, transparency and freedom in the digital realm.
Topic:: European Union, Partnerships, ASEAN, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, and Singapore

91. A new formula for collaboration: Turkey, the EU & North Africa

Author:: Nienke van Heukelingen
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Over recent years, relations between Turkey and the European Union (EU) have been difficult and driven more by crisis management rather than equal partnership. Yet, despite this downward spiral, both blocs remain key partners on domains such as trade, migration and counterterrorism and repeatedly express their interest in developing a more cooperative and constructive relationship. This report is a product of the ‘Searching for a New Formula for collaboration between Turkey and the EU in/with North Africa’ project, which investigated the extent to which Turkey and the EU could collaborate in and with North Africa, more specifically, Morocco, Egypt and Algeria. North Africa was chosen because it offers an underexplored area of research for Turkey-EU relations; Morocco, Egypt and Algeria were selected for specific study as they are the countries with which both Turkey and the EU have the highest trade volumes in the region. Moreover, there are currently no joint projects between Turkey and the EU in Morocco, Algeria or Egypt, although the region is an area of strategic importance for both Turkey and the EU. The recent war in Ukraine has also increased the value of North Africa as a provider of agricultural products and gas for the region. Libya and Tunisia were excluded from the research to narrow the scope of the project. To avoid the traps of reproducing ‘neo-colonial’ or ‘neo-Ottoman’ discourses and of following a top-down approach, this study used action research as a democratic, participatory and collaborative research methodology. It engaged diverse participants from Turkey, the EU and North Africa in semi-structured in-depth interviews, conferences and a survey. Through a cyclical process, the study devised a tripartite collaborative model and concrete project ideas under five major policy options in which cooperation between Turkey, the EU, Morocco, Algeria and Egypt could be actionable. This report gives a detailed account of the abovementioned tripartite collaborative model and the subsequent project ideas which were designed to be mutually beneficial for all three blocs –Turkey, the EU and North Africa. It should, nevertheless, be mentioned that current geopolitical uncertainties in the wider region could challenge the implementation of these projects. The civil war in Libya, the political tension between Turkey and Egypt or Morocco and Algeria, and the influence of China and Russia in the region could pose potential risks for collaboration. However, we maintain that such uncertainties make it even more timely to seek opportunities for a future collaborative environment in the Mediterranean as, ‘if the Mediterranean is weak, all Mediterranean countries are weak’.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Migration, European Union, Crisis Management, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and North Africa

92. The Russians are coming! The Russians are coming? Russia’s growing presence in Africa and its implication for European policy

Author:: Guido Lanfranchi and Kars de Bruijne
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The growth of Russia’s presence across Africa over the last decade has generated significant international concern, further exacerbated after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s engagement can affect the interests and policies of the European Union (EU) and its member states (MS) in Africa. How should European policymakers understand these developments and respond to them? To answer this question, this report looks at Russia’s engagement in Africa, reaching three main conclusions. First, Moscow’s engagement with Africa has so far remained limited as compared to that of other global players, particularly in the economic domain. The current level of (media) attention devoted to Russia’s role in Africa is thus not supported by sufficient evidence of its actual engagement in the continent. At the same time, however, the growth of Russia’s presence is a real trend. Second, Russian actors are guided by a rather loose strategy when it comes to Africa. The Russian state has some interests that act as a broad framework. However, the actual engagement is carried out not only by state actors, but also by state-backed conglomerates and politically connected private businesses. These latter actors have their own specific interests, which are not always fully aligned with those of the Russian state. While state actors are often driven by geopolitical considerations, Russian companies are more interested in economic opportunities. Third, Russia’s engagement in African countries is significantly shaped by the different national contexts and by the interests of African governments. For instance, in a strong state like Ethiopia, Russia’s engagement takes place exclusively at the governmental level. By contrast, in Sudan and Mali (contexts with weaker state structures), other Russian actors like PMCs and private businesses are involved. Yet, in all three cases, Moscow’s presence tends to grow when relations between African governments and their international partners (especially in the West) deteriorate, often in the wake of authoritarian turns. This shows the opportunistic nature of Russia’s engagement, as well as the complex trade-offs faced by EU/MS governments when engaging with African governments. These findings have significant consequences for the policy response of the EU and its member states. This report suggests that: (i) Rather than trying to respond reactively to Russia’s presence, EU/MS should focus on strengthening their own relations with relevant African partners. Addressing some of the political and economic imbalances in the Europe-Africa partnership may be an effective way to strengthen such relations, and by doing so to reduce the chances of an increase in Russia’s influence. (ii) In countries where this preventive strategy is difficult to implement (e.g. when facing authoritarian governments), decisions on whether/how to engage should go beyond debates about Russia’s (potential) presence, and be based instead on a comprehensive understanding of EU/MS interests and norms. Partnerships with non-governmental actors (e.g. the private sector, traditional authorities) may allow EU/MS governments to remain engaged despite souring ties with the government. (iii) In countries where Russia’s presence is already established, evidence-based and context-specific assessments of this presence should inform the EU/MS policy response. This can allow EU/MS governments to avoid overreacting to Russia’s influence, while also not underestimating its dangers. (iv) To pursue their interests in an increasingly multipolar world, EU/MS governments should try to strengthen their leverage vis-à-vis Russia (as well as other actors). To do so, EU/MS policymakers should leverage more strategically the engagement of European businesses across Africa.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, and Engagement
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, and Europe

93. How To Talk About Migration in Africa: Classic Hurdles and Six Recommendations for European Policymakers

Author:: Victoria Rietig and Alia Fakhry
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Europeans are entering a decisive period for their relationship with African countries, on migration and beyond. Efforts to strengthen cooperation abound, but many migration initiatives are plagued by frustrations on both sides. So how to break through this vicious cycle and improve the unhealthy relationship? This paper analyzes trends in African migration policies and puts forward six recommendations for European policymakers and experts about how to prepare for their next encounter with their African counterparts – be it a friendly and informal chat or a negotiation.
Topic:: International Relations, Migration, European Union, and Asylum
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, and North Africa

94. Risky Thinking: How Scenarios Can Help the EU Bounce Back from Strategic Shock

Author:: Roderick Parkes and Mark McQuay
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Since coming to power in December, the Scholz government has blundered into a series of foreseeable crises: medical shortages; reliance on Russia for gas; Ukraine’s need for robust support. France’s President Macron anticipated all three crises, giving weight to his calls for Europeans to pursue autonomy and reduce dependence on the outside world. Policy makers are now demanding scenario exercises that illustrate the obvious dangers of interdependency to back up their policy shift.
Topic:: European Union, Crisis Management, Risk, and European Commission
Political Geography:: Europe

95. Defense and Deterrence Against Geo-Economic Coercion What Germany and the EU Can Learn from China and the United States

Author:: Markus Jaeger
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The geo-economic conflict between the United States and China as well as uncertainty about America’s longer-term commitment to a liberal and rules-based multilateral order pose risks to Germany’s economic prosperity and national security. The new German government must systematically identify economic dependencies and develop a forward-looking and comprehensive strategy to address vulnerabilities.
Topic:: Defense Policy, European Union, Deterrence, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:: South America and North America

96. Functional Specialisation in EU Value Chains: Methods for Identifying EU Countries’ Roles in International Production Networks

Author:: Aleksandra Kordalska, Magdalena Olczyk, Roman Stöllinger, and Zuzana Zavarská
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: Geographically dispersed production networks have allowed countries to specialise in different functions of the value chain. By making use of two methodologies for quantifying the magnitude of functional specialisation – one based on trade flows and one based on FDI flows – detailed profiles of the functional specialisations of EU member states are identified. The analyses are conducted at the country, industry and regional level. In line with the existing literature, they reveal that EU-CEE countries are predominantly specialised in the fabrication stage, that is, they serve as ‘factory economies’, while the Western EU countries are mainly performing knowledge-intensive pre-fabrication activities – a characteristic of ‘headquarter economies’. This dualism within the EU is confirmed by a cluster analysis. While functional specialisation patterns tend to be persistent, especially in the fabrication stage, there are also some signs of functional diversification in EU-CEE countries in more recent years. Still, these functional changes remain limited to a few industries. The dichotomy of factory and headquarter economies is also clearly discernible at the regional level. However, the fact that in most EU countries – mainly in the capital regions – there are some headquarter-type regions implies that a complete functional ‘lock-in’ in fabrication is less likely than suggested by the country-level patterns. Hence, while the results point towards major difficulties of functional diversification beyond the fabrication stage in the EU-CEE countries and regions, there are also several promising elements and trends discernible, in particular at the industry and the regional level.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, European Union, Economy, Value Chains, Specialization, and Competition
Political Geography:: Europe

97. World Risk Poll: Spotlight on Ukraine and Russia

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: The Lloyd’s Register Foundation World Risk Poll, when combined with associated data from the Gallup World Poll and a number of other sources, reveals a complex and sometimes counterintuitive view of the world for both Ukrainians and Russians prior to the Russian invasion in 2022. Ukrainian citizens’ positive sentiments on a number of questions on social wellbeing were on the rise at a time when global averages were in decline. In the lead-up to the invasion, Ukrainians’ perceptions of safety and security were improving, with the percentage of people reporting feeling safer than five years prior rising from 19 to 26 per cent, bringing it closer to the global average. This represents a major increase, especially as it came at a time when the global average fell markedly, from 36 to 27.4 per cent, and for Russians the rate fell from 19.2 to 17.4 per cent. The conflict has unfolded within the context of Ukraine’s increasing socio-political reorientation toward the West. By November 2021, 58 per cent of Ukrainians said that, if the country were to join just one economic union, it should join the European Union (EU), compared to 21 per cent that said it should join the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union. This was the highest rating ever recorded. Similarly, 54 per cent said they would vote to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), compared to 28 per cent who would vote against joining. Surprisingly, “war and terrorism” was only the sixth highest-rated concern in Ukraine in 2021. Ukrainians rated health-related risks (not including COVID-19) as their top concern. Transportation-related risks, crime and violence, economic concerns and financial hardship were more frequently cited than “war and terrorism."
Topic:: Security, NATO, European Union, Conflict, Risk, Polls, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

98. EU – Pacific Talks: Japan – V4 Relations – More Central but Still European

Author:: Jana Záhořová
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: In the last few years, there have been a number of articles written about the revitalization of relations between Japan and the EU following the signing of the Strategic and Economic Partnership. However, Japan’s rapprochement with the EU does not end in Brussels. On the contrary, Japan has drawn increasing attention to another European platform, the Visegrad Four. The V4+Japan regional cooperative framework started in 2004 by a series of meetings between the countries’ representatives, who discussed several domains of cooperation such as strengthening economic relations, political dialogue, promoting research and development in science and technology or providing development assistance to third countries. However, despite the noticeable expansion of relations, it remains far from becoming an institutionalized framework and is currently facing many challenges including Chinese rising global influence and strategic geo-economic shifts.
Topic:: International Relations, European Union, Partnerships, and Economy
Political Geography:: Japan and Europe

99. EU- Pacific talks: U.S.-Japan relations - new leaders, new chance to restore the old relationship

Author:: Inka Koutná
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: This year’s fifth debate in a series of expert discussions on the EU’s relations with the Pacific took place online on Tuesday 15th of February. The expert guests offered their views on the potential new developments and challenges in U.S.- Japan relations with new political leadership. And future challenges with consideration for a potential multilateral relation with other European countries and countries from the Indo-Pacific region.
Topic:: International Relations, European Union, Multilateralism, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: Japan, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

100. EU – Pacific Talks: H2 – Hydrogen Hype

Author:: David Plhák
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: Czechia is in many respects similar to Japan in its limited ability to rely fully on renewables. It is therefore in the interest of Czechia to increase hydrogen imports and its use in the energy mix. In order to ensure a steady supply of hydrogen the gas system operators of Czechia, Slovakia, Ukraine, and Germany launched in 2021 joined initiative to create a Central European Hydrogen corridor in an effort to create a supply of hydrogen from Ukraine. Unfortunately, given the Russian aggression on Ukraine, this project must be stopped, until Ukraine will be free of war again.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, Economy, and Hydrogen
Political Geography:: Japan, Ukraine, Germany, Asia-Pacific, Slovakia, European Union, and Czechia

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS