Search

Begin New Search Content Type Special Report Publication Year within 10 Years

401. Decarbonisation and Compliance: Assessing the impact of the Climate Change Act on South Africa’s extractives industry

Author:
Vincent Obisie-Orlu
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
The Climate Change Act establishes a regulatory framework for decarbonisation in South Africa’s extractives sector, aligning with Paris Agreement commitments. Key provisions include sectorspecific emissions reduction targets, carbon budgets, and mandatory monitoring and reporting. While enforcement issues and resource limitations exist, companies must prioritise emissions tracking and internal carbon pricing. Environmental, social and governance (ESG) imperatives already incentivise companies in this direction. Investors increasingly direct capital towards companies that demonstrate effective emissions management. Successful adaptation strategies and alignment with national goals are essential for companies to enhance sustainability and attract investment. Collaboration among stakeholders is critical for effectively implementing the Climate Change Act.
Topic:
Climate Change, Carbon Emissions, Compliance, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

402. Beyond Punishment: From Criminal Justice Responses to Drug Policy Reform

Author:
Global Commission On Drug Policy
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Global Commission On Drug Policy
Abstract:
The Global Commission on Drug Policy’s report, Beyond Punishment: From Criminal Justice Responses to Drug Policy Reform, exposes how punitive drug policies have driven mass incarceration and grave human rights violations. In 2023 alone, over 3.1 million people were arrested for drug-related offenses, with 20% of the global prison population detained for such crimes - nearly half for simple possession. The report underscores the devastating consequences of prohibitionist policies, including over one million overdose deaths in the U.S. in the past two decades and 40,000 in Canada in just eight years. It also highlights systemic inequities, such as Indigenous peoples in Canada being six times more likely to face drug-related arrests than white counterparts. Furthermore, the report illustrates the disproportionate burdens on women and children, deepening cycles of poverty and marginalization. It examines the broad spectrum of criminal justice responses to drug offenses, ranging from stop-and-search practices that disproportionately target marginalized communities to extreme measures like the death penalty and enforced treatment. These approaches often violate human rights, perpetuate stigma, and fail to address the root causes of substance use. Offering a roadmap for reform, the report advocates for evidence-based strategies, including harm reduction measures (e.g., Overdose Prevention Centers, naloxone distribution, and safer supply programs), decriminalization and the legal regulation of drug markets. These approaches not only save lives but also reduce societal harms, foster dignity, and promote health and equity.
Topic:
Human Rights, Reform, Criminal Justice, Mass Incarceration, Drugs, and Harm Reduction
Political Geography:
Global Focus

403. 2021–2022 Global Resources Report: Government & Philanthropic Support for LGBTI Communities

Author:
Global Philanthropy Project (GPP)
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Global Philanthropy Project (GPP)
Abstract:
The 2021–2022 Global Resources Report: Government & Philanthropic Support for Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, and Intersex Communities is the most comprehensive report to date on the state of global funding for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and intersex (LGBTI) issues. This report documents data on over 20,000 grants awarded by nearly 1,300 foundations, intermediary NGOs, and corporations and by 16 donor government and multilateral agencies to over 8,000 grantees during the two-year period of 2021–2022.
Topic:
Civil Society, LGBT+, NGOs, Philanthropy, Funding, Transgender, Resources, and Intersex
Political Geography:
Global Focus

404. The State of Intersex Organizing 3rd Edition

Author:
Julia Lukomnik, Somjen Frazer, Mauro Cabral Grinspan, and Ezra Nepon
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Global Philanthropy Project (GPP)
Abstract:
The third edition of the State of Intersex Organizing survey was launched in October 2023 and received participation from 151 intersex respondents worldwide. The results provide illuminating insight into intersex organizations’ priorities, activities, needs, and experiences. The survey results also document their funding sources, budget sizes, and other elements related to movement sustainability, as well as their capacity to serve intersex people. The reports include the findings of global surveys, comparison with Global Resources Report funding data, case studies, recommendations, and more.
Topic:
Civil Society, LGBT+, NGOs, Intersex, and Organizing
Political Geography:
Global Focus

405. The State of Trans Organizing 3rd Edition

Author:
Julia Lukomnik, Somjen Frazer, Mauro Cabral Grinspan, and Ezra Nepon
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Global Philanthropy Project (GPP)
Abstract:
The third edition of the State of Trans Organizing survey was launched in October 2023 and received participation from 449 respondents worldwide. The results provide illuminating insight into trans organizations’ priorities, activities, needs, and experiences. The survey results also document their funding sources, budget sizes, and other elements related to movement sustainability, as well as their capacity to serve trans people. The reports include the findings of global surveys, comparison with Global Resources Report funding data, case studies, recommendations, and more.
Topic:
LGBT+, NGOs, Transgender, and Organizing
Political Geography:
Global Focus

406. How to Unbind the State Capture in Serbia? Towards Security Institutions and Foreign Policy in the Service of Citizens

Author:
Jelena Pejic Nikic and Predrag Petrovic
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
There are many findings of domestic and foreign research organisations that unequivocally indicate that Serbia is a captured state, with a hybrid political regime. Security institutions play a major role in the capture of the state and the collapse of democracy in Serbia, as well as in preserving the situation the way it is. The Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP) was one the first organisations in Serbia to notice this negative trend; consequently, in 2019 and 2020, we investigated and documented in detail the role of the security intelligence services, the police, the army and private security companies in capturing the state, as well as the impotence of oversight and control bodies. In the research that followed in 2021, we established that the government of the Serbian Progressive Party, led by Aleksandar Vučić, had completed the capture of the state and that today’s security institutions are operating with the aim of preserving such a state of affairs. We also researched the foreign policy aspects of this negative process. Public opinion surveys conducted by BCSP have also established that the majority of the citizens are aware that Serbia is a captured state, i.e. that politicians, organised into interest groups, use state institutions together with financially powerful actors to further strengthen their political and financial power, all to the great detriment of citizens. Since state institutions are deeply captured and the citizens are aware of that fact, we have decided not to further document this process; in this study, we rather tried to determine how to organise the security institutions and strengthen their external overseers so that the security sector can no longer be easy prey for those who are politically and financially powerful. In other words, we wanted to determine how to ensure that security institutions work in the interest of citizens, precisely as the Constitution of Serbia requires. The starting point of this endeavour were the findings of the above mentioned BCSP research, in which we identified the “gray areas” and “veto points” within the security sector, that is, legal and institutional solutions that made it possible to capture these institutions quite easily. We verified the solutions for the reorganisation of these gray areas against the opinions of our interlocutors, former and current employees of the security institutions and the judiciary, diplomats, journalists, attorneys, politicians and representatives of civil society. We verified the solutions for the reorganisation of these gray areas against the opinions of our interlocutors, former and current employees of the security institutions and the judiciary, diplomats, journalists, attorneys, politicians and representatives of civil society. The interviews helped us to confirm, but also to refute our assumptions.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Institutions, and State Capture
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

407. From Entry Points to Sustainable Action: Equipping Peace Processes for Accountability and Integrity: The Case of the Bangsamoro

Author:
Balázs Áron Kovács
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Berghof Foundation
Abstract:
The Bangsamoro peace process is an interesting case study to analyse potential entry-points for stronger integration of anti-corruption measures into peace processes. In 2022, together with U4 Anti-Corruption Resource Centre, we published a mapping study that, starting from the assumption that corruption and violent conflict are interlinked, explored how corruption, as an element of conflict systems, could be addressed during peace processes. The mapping identified potential entry-points for stronger integration of anti-corruption measures into peace processes across mediation efforts at different “tracks”. It also highlighted the need for more case study evidence of past efforts to integrate such measures in order to operationalise the identified entry points and to move towards actionable recommendations. The Bangsamoro peace process was identified as a significant case study, in which the integration of thinking about corruption within peace processes has (or has not) contributed to durable peace. This paper presents a first case study exploring the concrete consequences of making use of specific entry points.
Topic:
Corruption, Accountability, Sustainability, and Peace Process
Political Geography:
Philippines and Asia-Pacific

408. Building bridges for nonviolent change: Women as insider mediators during the October 2019 protests in Iraq

Author:
Ilham Makki Hammadi
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Berghof Foundation
Abstract:
The October 2019 protests in Iraq were notable for their scale, spontaneity, and widespread participation, particularly by young people and women. This report documents the roles of Iraqi women as insider mediators within the movement, highlighting their efforts to maintain peace and build trust among protesters, police, and other stakeholders. Based on interviews with activists across five governorates, the report also examines the gender dynamics and challenges these women faced in mediation, offering insights into their capacity-building needs.
Topic:
Women, Protests, Mediation, and Nonviolence
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

409. Building bridges for non-violent change: Women as insider mediators in Thailandʼs 2020–2022 pro-democracy movements

Author:
Bencharat Sae Chua and Duanghathai Buranajaroenkij
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Berghof Foundation
Abstract:
The youth-led pro-democracy protests in Thailand from 2020-2022 represented a major turning point in the country’s political landscape. Women played prominent roles, demonstrating resilience and leadership throughout the movement. This research report focuses on women’s roles as insider mediators in resolving conflicts between protesters and authorities, examining the gender dynamics at play. It also explores strategies to support women in sustaining their mediation roles, providing recommendations for enhancing their capacities and effectiveness.
Topic:
Social Movement, Women, Democracy, Leadership, Protests, and Mediation
Political Geography:
Thailand and Southeast Asia

410. Building bridges for non-violent change: Women as insider mediators within the pro-democracy movement in Venezuela

Author:
Isabella Picón Ball
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Berghof Foundation
Abstract:
As the social, humanitarian and political crises become more acute in Venezuela, social actors who were previously marginalised have acquired more prominent roles within the pro-democracy movement– among them, women. Moreover, for the first time in its history, the Venezuelan opposition has a woman –María Corina Machado – as its main leader. This study stems from the need to understand the strengthened roles of civil society and women in these negotiations and explores the roles of women as insider mediators within the Venezuelan pro-democracy movement.
Topic:
Civil Society, Social Movement, Women, Democracy, Mediation, and Nonviolence
Political Geography:
South America and Venezuela

411. Economic Performance in US Fossil Fuel Communities

Author:
Noah Kaufman, Ariane Desrosiers, and Sarah Doctor
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels to address the severe threats of climate change requires economic transformations that pose challenges for regions heavily dependent on coal, oil, natural gas, or other carbon-intensive industries. The United States is the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas and the fourth-largest producer of coal, and communities across the country depend heavily on fossil fuel industries for jobs, investments, and public revenues that fund schools and other critical services. These communities will need considerable support to successfully navigate a global transition away from fossil fuels, and a better understanding of their local economies will help policymakers design and implement pragmatic support. However, scant evidence exists for such use today. This report, part of the Resilient Energy Economies initiative co-led by the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA, uses a novel dataset and case studies to establish a baseline of local economic performance in fossil fuel–dependent communities between 2004 and 2019. This period captures the peak and first decade of decline of the US coal industry as well as the shale revolution that boosted US oil and gas production.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Finance, Fossil Fuels, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

412. Lessons from the Nuclear Waste Negotiator Era of the 1990s for Today’s Consent-Based Siting Efforts

Author:
Matt Bowen
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Nuclear power is being weighed in energy transition plans around the world, as countries seek to replace fossil fuels with low-carbon alternatives while also meeting growing energy demand and maintaining reliability and affordability. When considering extension of existing nuclear reactor licenses as well as approving new ones, there is an ethical obligation for today’s users to develop plans for long-term management of the resulting nuclear waste and not defer its disposition to future generations. In the United States, the federal government is contractually obligated to take ownership of the spent nuclear fuel (SNF) produced at power plants, but this has not happened. The one deep geologic repository project named in law by Congress for potential disposal of SNF—Yucca Mountain in Nevada—has reached a stalemate, with Congress appropriating no money to move the project forward since 2010 due to Nevada’s opposition. Negotiations with US states and tribes to host storage and disposal facilities have been sensitive in the past due to both a stigma around nuclear waste and a perception of risk associated with such facilities. A federal “nuclear waste negotiator” role existed in the early 1990s to overcome these difficulties and find a state or tribe willing to host a repository or interim storage facility, though this short-lived, volunteer-based program did not lead to deployment of either. This report, part of a series of publications on nuclear waste policy at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA, reveals lessons learned from the experiences of the two prior negotiators that could benefit a recent, congressionally directed effort at the Department of Energy (DOE) to begin a “consent-based” siting program for nuclear waste. Those individuals were authorized to negotiate terms and conditions—including financial and institutional arrangements—with a state or tribe in a written agreement that would then have to be approved by Congress. Importantly, a state or tribe was assured it could explore the potential of hosting a site while retaining the right to withdraw at any time, and if it did proceed, would have a measure of power in setting terms for the project.
Topic:
Negotiation, Nuclear Waste, Inflation Reduction Act, and Consent
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

413. Triggering Investment in First-of-a-Kind and Early Near-Zero Emissions Industrial Facilities

Author:
Chris Bataille, Seton Stiebert, and Jonas Algers
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Among the most significant challenges to achieving the Paris Agreement goal of global net-zero CO2 emissions by 2055–2075 is addressing the so-called “hard-to-abate” heavy industrial sectors such as iron and steel, cement and concrete, ammonia, methanol, and high value feedstock chemicals like olefins. These sectors accounted for 7.5 Gt CO2 or 20.4 percent of global emissions in 2021, and global demand for their products will only rise until broad development goals are met everywhere. Moreover, nearly all heavy industrial plants being planned or in construction today are fossil based, with the exception being a handful of small-scale pilot facilities. Given that plants tend to operate for at least 20 years before their first deep renovation, and 40–80+ years overall, these new ones will likely still be in operation by the time global CO2 emissions must be net-zero (~2050–2060), after which heavy industry players that are still emitting will likely need to pay for CO2 removal (CDR) from the atmosphere. The cumulative CO2 emissions between now and then and the likely very high cost of CDR are driving society, governments, and firms to make near-zero emissions the default minimum standard for all new and retrofit facilities by the end of the 2020s. However, fulfilling that standard is no easy task. The main bottleneck is less technological in nature than financial and market based. At the current state of the art, near-zero emissions plants simply cost more than fossil-based plants, and meanwhile, no demand pull or market exists for lower-emission industrial products. Given the urgency of the task at hand amid the global climate crisis and the current lack of a business case to undertake it, strong policy signals can be used to incentivize early investment in near-zero-carbon heavy industry. This report, part of the Carbon Management Research Initiative at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA, explores financial policy instruments that can make first-of-a-kind (FOAK) near-zero emission industrial facilities viable. The report finds that such FOAKs can then be used as low-risk, replicable models for rapidly transforming the “hard-to-abate” sectors and ultimately facilitating a transition to full net-zero emissions for industry as a whole.
Topic:
Climate Change, Investment, Industry, Carbon Emissions, Net Zero, and Abatement
Political Geography:
Global Focus

414. Revisiting GTCC and GTCC-Like Nuclear Waste Disposal in the United States

Author:
Matt Bowen, Maya Lameche, and Marine Gapihan
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
While the United States (US) has facilities that can and do dispose of most low-level nuclear waste (LLW), it does not yet have a viable disposal pathway for two categories of waste: so-called greater-than-class-c (GTCC) nuclear waste, and nuclear waste with characteristics similar to it, or “GTCC-like.” These two categories essentially straddle the United States’ LLW inventory, for which disposal facilities are in operation, and high-level nuclear waste (HLW) inventory, for which no disposal capability exists. GTCC nuclear waste is produced by multiple sources: commercial nuclear power plants, medical procedures, industrial and research activities, and Department of Energy (DOE) missions, including those related to national security and the cleanup of legacy facilities. These activities carry with them an ethical responsibility to dispose of the nuclear waste they generate rather than pass it on to the next generation. Security task forces have also identified the lack of a disposal pathway for sealed sources of GTCC nuclear waste as a concern, given the potential for its theft and use in a dispersal device. This report, part of a series of publications on nuclear waste policy at the Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University SIPA, explores the history of DOE, Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and state efforts to develop disposal capabilities for GTCC and GTCC-like inventories. It explains why this gap merits greater attention from policymakers now and identifies measures Congress, the DOE, and the NRC could take, should they decide to address it. US government efforts to develop disposal capabilities for GTCC waste date back to 1985 when Congress made it a federal responsibility. For a time, disposal in the planned repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, was contemplated. But in the absence of appropriations to move that project forward since 2010, the federal government recently issued planning documents that identify generic commercial LLW disposal facilities and the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) deep geologic repository in New Mexico as preferred alternatives. Of the commercial LLW disposal facilities in operation, only the WCS facility in Texas has expressed interest in the GTCC disposal mission. The political climate for GTCC disposal in both New Mexico and Texas has darkened in recent years, though, casting doubt on the federal government’s plans. If the US government decides to prioritize the goal of establishing disposal capability for GTCC and GTCC-like nuclear waste, Congress, the DOE, and the NRC could take the following steps to help realize it in the near term.
Topic:
Regulation, Nuclear Waste, Nuclear Energy, and Energy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

415. Using New Marginal Emissions Data to Improve State Renewable Portfolio Standards

Author:
Devan Samant, Abraham Silverman, and Zachary A. Wendling
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
The majority of US states use a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) to achieve clean energy targets. RPS programs typically set annual clean energy production levels, but they ignore the significant variations in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of the grid at different times of the day and at different locations. Newly available locational marginal emissions (LME) data, which are collected at thousands of physical locations and updated every five minutes, provide insights into where and when the electricity sector produces the most and least GHG emissions. Incorporating LMEs into RPSs would allow states to identify and reward “high impact” clean energy production: that which replaces the dirtiest generation. This report examines the impact that incentivizing clean energy production at high LME times and locations could have on reducing emissions in RPS programs. In five scenarios based on data from four states in the PJM grid (Illinois, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Virginia), the authors examine hypothetical shifts in energy production from times and geographic areas with differing clean or dirty generation mixes. The proof-of-concept exercises the authors ran found that shifting clean energy production into the three dirtiest hours of the day resulted in approximately 10% less emissions than the baseline case. Geographically shifting production to displace energy at a dirtier locale resulted in 9%–20% less emissions, depending on the LME makeup at the given location versus the baseline.
Topic:
Regulation, Electricity, Carbon Emissions, and Energy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

416. Outlook for Pending Generation in the PJM Interconnection Queue

Author:
Abraham Silverman, Zachary A. Wendling, and Kavyaa Rizal
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
The United States is witnessing rapidly growing interest in clean electricity generation, driven by soaring consumer demand for clean energy and the country’s goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In parallel, the time it takes for new, clean generation projects to move from design to execution in the US has lengthened, meaning that the rising interest has not been matched by supply. The country’s largest grid operator, PJM Interconnection (PJM), has experienced the most severe delays and backlog in new generation—projects entering the queue today have little chance of coming online before 2030. It is widely understood that an increasingly lengthy interconnection process, which involves a series of studies and upgrades grid operators must take to ensure projects can connect to the grid safely and reliably, is responsible for this state of affairs. It is not clear how this longer process interacts with other known project development challenges—such as siting and permitting issues, supply chain constraints, and inflationary pressures—and to what extent such interactions may lengthen the timeline for bringing projects online. Understanding these dynamics can help answer critical questions about grid reliability going forward, including whether it will be necessary to delay or cancel the planned retirement of aging fossil fuel-fired generation resources that the new generation is intended to replace. This report attempts to fill this knowledge gap. It presents results of an author-developed survey of those best positioned to understand the impacts of interconnection process delays: project developers in the PJM market. The key finding from the survey is that PJM’s increasingly lengthy interconnection process is exacerbating siting and permitting challenges and leading to knock-on delays in equipment procurement and financing decisions, suggesting the timeline for new generation in this market will likely remain long for the foreseeable future. Given the importance of new entry to keeping prices competitive and maintaining reliability amid the retirement of older fossil resources, PJM will need to find ways to reduce interconnection delays or reconsider when those fossil resources should be retired.
Topic:
Electricity, Carbon Emissions, Connectivity, and Inflation Reduction Act
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

417. Estimating the Number of Women Household Biomass Producers, the Largest Segment of the Global Energy Labor Force

Author:
Philippe Benoit and Siyuan Ding
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
While tens of millions of people work in formal energy jobs around the world, another group that comprises a massive and key labor segment in this sector is often overlooked: women and girls producing biomass to meet the basic energy needs of millions of poorer households across the developing world. Some 2 billion people rely on biomass for cooking (and some for heating), making those who gather it critical players in the global energy supply system. Women and girls in many developing countries constitute the majority of people collecting fuelwood for household consumption—an often strenuous and time-consuming effort—and estimating their number could elevate the importance attached to improving their working and living conditions. While some initial estimates of this labor force have been made, analyses remain superficial. This report, part of ongoing research into energy for development and gender dynamics at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA, attempts to improve this deficit, providing a systemic albeit rough estimation—given minimal available data—of the number of women household biomass producers. An analysis of clean cooking access rates, population figures, and average household sizes for both rural and urban areas in 92 developing countries estimates that 389 million women and girls undertake this work, which would represent the largest labor segment of today’s global energy system.
Topic:
Development, Labor Issues, Women, Energy, and Biomass
Political Geography:
Global Focus

418. A Quantitative Analysis of Variables Affecting Power Transmission Infrastructure Projects in the US

Author:
Lewis (Zhaoyu) Wu, Abraham Silverman, and Harrison Fell
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Upgrading the US electric grid is vital to a successful energy transition. Transmission expansion lowers electricity costs for consumers; speeds deployment of new generation resources; provides economic opportunities for communities; increases system reliability, particularly in the face of extreme weather events; and enables large-scale transfers of power from areas of the country with high renewable energy potential to customers. But experience over the past twenty years has shown that new transmission projects often face extensive delays, impeding or even denying these potential benefits to consumers and communities. In response, policymakers at the state and federal level are considering reforms to transmission finance, cost allocation, siting and permitting, advanced technologies, and other areas to help jumpstart the United States’ currently moribund transmission expansion processes. As part of this process, policymakers and other stakeholders are debating the merits of various transmission planning policies in terms of project success, but the impact of specific variables can be hard to quantify. This can lead stakeholders to rely largely on anecdotal or qualitative arguments to support their positions. The wide variation in the way utilities are regulated and transmission planning processes are implemented across the United States further compounds the difficulty of evaluating the relative effectiveness of different transmission planning policies. This report, a joint project of the Non-Technical Barriers to the Clean Energy Transition Initiative and the Energy Systems Modeling and Analytic Platform at the Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University SIPA, applies a data-driven approach to this policy debate. Using statistical analysis and machine learning models to analyze a dataset from the data company MAPSearch of planned transmission projects of at least 100 kilovolts (kV) conceived between 2005 and 2023, which includes more than 1,300 transmission projects, the report provides a systematic assessment of the impact of key variables on the likelihood that a proposed transmission line will actually be built. The results of this assessment can help those interested in expanding transmission infrastructure understand which variables may be worth prioritizing in a particular geographical area or region, given its unique combination of attributes, needs, and challenges.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Energy Sector, and Transmission
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

419. Mirror, Mirror 2024: A Portrait of the Failing U.S. Health System

Author:
David Blumenthal, Evan D. Gumas, Arnav Shah, Munira Z. Gunja, and Reginald D. Williams II
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:
Goal: Compare health system performance in 10 countries, including the United States, to glean insights for U.S. improvement. Methods: Analysis of 70 health system performance measures in five areas: access to care, care process, administrative efficiency, equity, and health outcomes. Key Findings: The top three countries are Australia, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom, although differences in overall performance between most countries are relatively small. The only clear outlier is the U.S., where health system performance is dramatically lower. Conclusion: The U.S. continues to be in a class by itself in the underperformance of its health care sector. While the other nine countries differ in the details of their systems and in their performance on domains, unlike the U.S., they all have found a way to meet their residents’ most basic health care needs, including universal coverage.
Topic:
Development, Public Health, Efficiency, and Healthcare System
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

420. Hospital Global Budgeting: Lessons from Maryland and Selected Nations

Author:
Bob Atlas
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:
Issue: Maryland has utilized hospital global budgeting for a decade, but the approach is rarely used elsewhere in this country. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services now hopes to test global budgeting in more states to help scale up this form of cost containment. Goals: Examine the ways Maryland, Canada, the Netherlands, New Zealand, and Norway employ hospital global budgeting and the lessons they offer to those hoping to see wider adoption in the United States. Methods: Analysis of the various health systems and expert interviews. Key Findings and Conclusion: Maryland and the four selected countries vary significantly in their approaches to hospital global budgeting. With its previous experience using price controls and current global budgeting approach, Maryland has succeeded in holding hospital spending growth steady for nearly a decade. While Norway combines fixed and variable payments to support global budgeting, the Netherlands and Canada’s province of Ontario are moving away from global budgeting in favor of other approaches. Meanwhile, New Zealand has added multiyear rolling forecasts and budgets to support its own model. Future approaches in the U.S. could prove more effective by factoring in the complexities, conflicting incentives, and potential unintended consequences of global budgeting.
Topic:
Public Health, Healthcare System, and Budgeting
Political Geography:
Canada, Maryland, Netherlands, New Zealand, and United States of America

421. Countries at Risk for Intrastate Mass Killing 2024–25: Early Warning Project Statistical Risk Assessment Results

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
Policy makers face the challenge of simultaneously responding to ongoing mass atrocities and trying to prevent entirely new mass atrocity situations. A critical first step toward prevention is accurate and reliable assessment of countries at risk for future violence. The Early Warning Project’s Statistical Risk Assessment uses publicly available data and statistical modeling to produce a list of countries ranked by their estimated risk of experiencing a new episode, or onset, of intrastate mass killing. This report aims to help identify countries where preventive actions may be needed. Earlier identification of risk broadens the scope of possible preventive actions. In essence, our statistical model identifies patterns in historical data to answer the following question: Which countries today look most similar to countries that experienced mass killings in the past, in the year or two before those mass killings began? The historical data include basic country characteristics, as well as data on governance, war and conflict, human rights and civil liberties, and socioeconomic factors. This report highlights findings from our Statistical Risk Assessment for 2024–25, focusing on: Countries with the highest estimated risk of a new mass killing in 2024 or 2025 Countries where estimated risk has been consistently high over multiple years Countries where estimated risk has increased or decreased significantly from our last assessment Countries with unexpected results We emphasize that this assessment is just one tool. It is meant to be a starting point for discussion and further research, not a definitive conclusion. We aim to help governments, international organizations, and nongovernmental organizations determine where to devote resources for additional analysis, policy attention, and, ultimately, preventive action. We hope that this report and our Early Warning Project as a whole inspire governments and other organizations to invest in their own early warning capabilities.
Topic:
Genocide, Atrocity Prevention, Early Warning, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

422. Leveraging Social Media for Genocide and Mass Atrocity Prevention: Understanding the Digital Toolbox

Author:
Shannon Raj Singh
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
Much of the existing literature discussing social media focuses on how it might fuel or incite mass atrocities, drawing from experiences in contexts such as Sri Lanka and Burma. But there is significantly less awareness of how tools deployed or developed by social media companies might reduce the risk of mass violence and contribute constructively to atrocity prevention efforts. This report aims to address this gap by focusing on how social media tools can support two core atrocity prevention strategies: (1) protecting vulnerable civilian populations at risk of mass atrocities, and (2) degrading potential perpetrators’ capacity to commit mass atrocities. It provides a landscape assessment of the suite of social media product, policy, and operational interventions that may offer potential to support these strategies and articulates some of the associated limitations, risks, and important considerations when these tools are deployed. This report is primarily aimed at those inside social media companies with authority to develop or deploy tools in moments of heightened atrocity risk (which may include trust and safety professionals, human rights or crisis response teams, and senior leadership), as well as atrocity prevention experts and policy makers who may be able to encourage or incentivize the use of digital tools to support atrocity prevention. Select tools may also be of interest or use for humanitarian and civil society advocacy organizations that operate in atrocity risk settings. The objective of this report is to fill a gap by expanding the understanding of both policy makers and social media platform representatives about the available tools in the digital realm to support atrocity prevention efforts, to stimulate future research in this space, and to broaden our collective imaginations in designing modern atrocity prevention policy strategies that leverage digital tools and opportunities. This report is based on a series of semi-structured expert consultations, held under the Chatham House Rule of non-attribution, with more than 30 current and former representatives of social media companies, academics and practitioners specialized in technology and atrocity prevention, and members of at-risk communities who lent their experiences and insights to support this project. The report concludes that expanding the atrocity prevention toolbox to include digital tools and interventions offers an opportunity to develop more modern atrocity prevention strategies to meet the challenges of the moment.
Topic:
Social Media, Atrocities, Digital Policy, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
South Asia, Sri Lanka, and Burma

423. An Uncertain Future: Preventing Mass Atrocities in Uganda

Author:
Ashleigh Landau and Ashleigh Landau
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
An Uncertain Future: Preventing Mass Atrocities in Uganda explains the factors behind three high-risk scenarios, identifies potential triggering events that could lead to violence against civilians, and proposes recommendations for how to mitigate the risk. In studying genocide and mass atrocities, we have learned that they are never spontaneous. They are always preceded by a range of early warning signs. If these signs are detected, their causes can be addressed, preventing the potential for catastrophic progression. This report is one of the components of the Early Warning Project, which includes both quantitative and qualitative assessments of atrocity risk. It is the sixth in a series of deep-dive qualitative assessments designed to assist policymakers, NGOs, and members of civil society in understanding the atrocity dynamics particular to the country in question and recommending preventative actions.
Topic:
Genocide, Atrocity Prevention, Early Warning, and Political Transition
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

424. Social Bonds: A Lifeline for Atrocity Victims

Author:
David Scheffer, Caroline Kaeb, and Madeline Babin
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
This report examines the funding gaps that undermine the delivery of sufficient funds—reparations and assistance—to victims of “atrocity crimes” (genocide, crimes against humanity, and serious war crimes) and options for developing a funding mechanism in the form of a social bond for the benefit of such victims. The report aims to generate an innovative means to scale funds in order to meet the immediate and long-term needs of survivors and those adversely impacted by atrocity crimes. This exercise has become even more vital in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic as funding shortages have erupted for human rights and humanitarian priorities across the globe. This is no small matter. The victim populations of atrocity crimes encompass the survivors of ongoing atrocities in addition to those stretching back years and decades. Atrocity victims currently number in the tens of millions globally. Addressing their needs—both with short-term provision of assistance to meet victims’ economic, health, and living requirements in the immediate aftermath of atrocities as well as with the long-term objectives of securing justice and reparations—remains at the forefront of policy priorities. The victim populations of atrocity crimes encompass the survivors of ongoing atrocities in addition to those stretching back years or even decades, including the assaults on civilians in Afghanistan, the Balkans, Cambodia, central Africa, Colombia, Darfur, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Iraq, Myanmar, North Korea, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Syria, Ukraine, Xinjiang (China), Yemen, and many other regions and countries. Stripped of their human rights, and often enduring the losses of their relatives or friends, millions of these oppressed peoples are internally displaced or forced to flee as refugees. Tribunals, transitional justice mechanisms, and some domestic courts endeavor to hold criminally accountable those responsible for atrocities. Just as the millions who perished during or survived the Holocaust continue to be entitled to criminal justice and reparations, those who have endured contemporary atrocities seek compensation for the injustices suffered. This is proving increasingly difficult.
Topic:
Transitional Justice, Atrocities, and Social Cohesion
Political Geography:
Global Focus

425. Increasing the Policy-Relevance of Research on Atrocity Prevention Strategies and Tools: Toward a 10-year collaborative research program

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
On June 7, 2024, the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide convened leading social scientists, policy makers, and funders of policy-relevant research for a one-day workshop to explore how the Center should contribute its staff resources and research budget to improving policy-relevant research about atrocity prevention strategies and tools. Participants discussed the following topics: • Positive examples of research informing policy on atrocity prevention and general lessons to be drawn from these cases; • Key obstacles to policy-relevant atrocity prevention research, including gaps in the topics covered by the literature, obstacles to inference about the effects of atrocity prevention policy actions, and obstacles to synthesizing findings from a large body of studies; and • Strategies to increase the volume, relevance, quality, and impact on policy of atrocity prevention research. This rapporteur's report summarizes the workshop’s key themes in accordance with the Chatham House rule of non-attribution.
Topic:
Genocide, Research, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Global Focus

426. Mass Atrocity Crimes Against Women and Girls in Afghanistan

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
Afghanistan has consistently ranked among the ten highest-risk countries for a new onset of mass killing1 in the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum’s annual Statistical Risk Assessment. 2 Since 2021, when the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan, many communities face a heightened risk of targeted violence. In 2021, the Museum’s Simon Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide issued warnings of potential mass atrocities against women and girls3 and the risk of genocide against the Hazara community.4 The Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide and the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) have collaborated on a series of convenings on the risks to civilians in Afghanistan and potential international responses to halt and prevent the Taliban’s crimes and advance accountability for the victims. In January 2024, the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide and USIP co-hosted a private roundtable discussion on mass atrocity crimes committed against women and girls by the Taliban. The conversation was held in recognition that crimes perpetrated against women and girls, while too often neglected, are often mass atrocities and require a coordinated response from the international community. The convening included researchers, policymakers, activists, legal experts, and other civil society representatives, who discussed the following questions: • What information has been collected about crimes targeting women and girls in Afghanistan, and what patterns emerge from this documentation? • How and why has gender persecution become a focus of investigative efforts? • What are the consequences of the Taliban’s persecution of women and girls? • How can the Taliban be held accountable for their crimes against women and girls? • What topics need further exploration? • What are recommendations for actions that can be undertaken in the coming year to address the Taliban’s crimes against women and girls? The discussion took place under the Chatham House rule. This report summarizes key topics from the conversation without attribution.
Topic:
Taliban, Women, Atrocities, Girls, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

427. Coordination Breakdown: The Impacts of COVID-19 on Migration in Europe

Author:
Frey Lindsay
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
In many ways, Europe was better positioned than other world regions to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects on cross-border mobility. It had robust coordinating institutions and an existing freedom of movement agreement, as well as strong scientific capacities, social protection systems, and economies. But despite these advantages, COVID-19’s arrival largely halted movement both within and from outside the European Union, with heavy consequences for societies and economies across the bloc. Migration policy priorities in Europe since early 2022 have pivoted toward managing the arrival of several million displaced Ukrainians, but it is important not to lose sight of the pandemic’s lessons. These include the value of coordinated, thoughtful action (as evidenced by the adoption of the EU Digital COVID Certificate that helped restart cross-border movement) as well as the challenges to regional cooperation in times of crisis. This report is part of a series of studies by MPI’s Task Force on Mobility and Borders during and after COVID-19 that explores opportunities to improve international coordination regarding border management during public-health crises. Other regional case studies in this series look at Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East and North Africa, and South America. Thematic studies consider the role of digital health credentials in facilitating movement, the use of risk analysis to shape border policies, and the rise of remote work and “digital nomads.” A final capstone issue brief reflects on lessons for future public-health emergencies.
Topic:
Migration, Borders, COVID-19, and Coordination
Political Geography:
Europe

428. Converging Crises: The Impacts of COVID-19 on Migration in South America

Author:
Luisa Feline Freier, Andrea Kvietok, and Leon Lucar Oba
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
As it did in other regions, the COVID-19 pandemic prompted initial lockdowns and widespread border closures in South America, severely limiting human mobility and creating new barriers to the integration of refugees and other migrants. Certain dynamics specific to the region complicated the public-health response and subsequent reopening. Intraregional migration and displacement, particularly from Venezuela, had spiked in recent years. Thus, when COVID-19 hit, many countries were already grappling with increased demands on their regularization, integration, and broader social welfare systems. Cross-border mobility in the region has resumed as COVID-19 cases have fallen. Still, the pandemic offers important lessons on how to promote safe and sustainable mobility in the future. These include the value of incorporating migrants and refugees into emergency assistance programs, and the need for robust regional cooperation mechanisms to help governments develop coordinated responses to migration and protection issues. This report is part of a series of studies by MPI’s Task Force on Mobility and Borders during and after COVID-19 that explores opportunities to improve international coordination regarding border management during public-health crises. Other regional case studies in this series look at Asia and the Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East and North Africa. Thematic studies consider the role of digital health credentials in facilitating movement, the use of risk analysis to shape border policies, and the rise of remote work and “digital nomads.” A final capstone policy brief reflects on lessons for future public-health emergencies.
Topic:
Migration, Borders, Mobility, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
South America

429. Diverging Paths: The Impacts of COVID-19 on Migration in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Samuel Davidoff-Gore
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
The shutdown of mobility at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic had drastic effects on movement throughout the Middle East and North Africa. Migrant workers comprise much of the workforce in Arab Gulf states, Jordan, and Lebanon, and many lost their jobs and returned to their countries of origin. Tourism and travel, which represent a sizeable share of GDP for many countries, largely halted. And border closures stranded irregular migrants along many major routes. Looking back, the global public-health crisis may have been less of a disruptor of existing trends, instead reinforcing and accelerating them. The Gulf has continued its shift away from petrowealth and toward more diversified economies that aim to depend less on migrant workers, and North Africa and Lebanon have become increasingly unstable. This report is part of a series of studies by MPI’s Task Force on Mobility and Borders during and after COVID-19 that explores opportunities to improve international coordination regarding border management during public-health crises. Other regional case studies in this series look at Asia and the Pacific, Europe, and South America. Thematic studies consider the role of digital health credentials in facilitating movement, the use of risk analysis to shape border policies, and the rise of remote work and “digital nomads.” A final capstone policy brief reflects on lessons for future public-health crises.
Topic:
Migration, Borders, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

430. Mobility Shutdown: The Impacts of COVID-19 on Migration in Asia and the Pacific

Author:
Lawrence Huang
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
Governments in Asia and the Pacific imposed some of the strictest and longest-lasting limits on human mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic, triggering a collapse in migration, stranding migrants abroad for months, and prompting mass returns that strained health and reintegration systems. But the region also kept COVID-19 cases and deaths relatively low for the first two years. To help inform policymakers’ preparations for future crises, there is a clear need to better understand the costs and benefits of this region’s approach to managing the COVID-19 public-health crisis through strict travel measures. This report is part of a series of studies by MPI’s Task Force on Mobility and Borders during and after COVID-19 that explores opportunities to improve international coordination regarding border management during public-health crises. Other regional case studies in this series look at Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, and South America. Thematic studies consider the role of digital health credentials in facilitating movement, the use of risk analysis to shape border policies, and the rise of remote work and “digital nomads.” A final capstone issue brief reflects on lessons for future public-health emergencies.
Topic:
Migration, Mobility, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia-Pacific

431. Managing International Protection Needs at Borders

Author:
Lucía Salgado, Susan Fratzke, Lawrence Huang, and Emma Dorst
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
National borders are one of the primary apertures through which publics perceive and judge migration trends and policy. Dysfunction at borders has implications that go well beyond national security, affecting commerce and trade as well as human mobility of various kinds. For asylum seekers, who generally must reach another country’s territory in order to seek protection, borders can represent the difference between danger and safety. As publics in many countries become increasingly vocal in their dissatisfaction with the management of their nation’s borders, policymakers face the difficult task of designing border systems that prevent the outbreak (or perception) of chaos, even as major displacement crises and the complexities of mixed humanitarian, economic, and family reunification migration strain outmoded infrastructure. This report—part of the Beyond Territorial Asylum: Making Protection Work in a Bordered World initiative led by MPI and the Robert Bosch Stiftung—examines the key elements of an effective and protection-sensitive border system. It begins with an overview of what makes border management challenging at the best of times, and particularly so amid acute displacement crises. It then explores the core features of border processes capable of responding to mixed migration while protecting the right to seek asylum, and what conditions need to be in place for these procedures to be successful.
Topic:
Migration, Borders, Asylum, Protection, and Irregular Migration
Political Geography:
Global Focus

432. The End of Asylum? Evolving the Protection System to Meet 21st Century Challenges

Author:
Susan Fratzke, Meghan Benton, Andrew Selee, Emma Dorst, and Samuel Davidoff-Gore
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
The international protection regime is under increasingly untenable pressure, and the obsolescence of the policy architecture on which it relies is becoming more and more apparent. The territorial asylum system, which requires asylum seekers to reach another country’s territory in order to seek protection, has proven itself to be a blunt tool with which to address the protection challenges of the 21st century. New crises, protracted displacement situations, and expanding norms about who merits protection have created a growing population of individuals in need of humanitarian protection. At the same time, other mobility pressures—including those rooted in demographic shifts, economic inequality, and climate change—have produced high levels of mixed migration, adding to the strain on border and asylum adjudication systems. This report, which concludes the Beyond Territorial Asylum: Making Protection Work in a Bordered World initiative led by MPI and the Robert Bosch Stiftung, sets out a vision for the ongoing evolution of the international protection system, with a focus on the future of asylum. It analyzes promising developments and best-in-class ideas around facilitating orderly entry, ensuring system efficiency, and building regional capacity, and how these elements could foster a system that is better at providing protection for those who need it and at securing public trust by reducing chaos at borders and within public systems that must manage migration.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Governance, Borders, Asylum, and Protection
Political Geography:
Global Focus

433. Engaging Employers in Growing Refugee Labor Pathways

Author:
Emma Dorst, Kate Hooper, Meghan Benton, and Beatrice Dain
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
Refugee labor pathways, which focus on helping displaced people with in-demand skills access existing economic immigration channels, have attracted considerable attention in recent years. The appeal is two-fold: From a humanitarian perspective, they open additional opportunities for refugees and other displaced people to move to safety. From a labor market perspective, they offer access to an additional talent pool at a time when many employers are struggling to recruit qualified workers. Such programs now exist in several countries, with the largest in Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom. Designed and implemented as a partnership between these countries’ governments and the nongovernmental organization Talent Beyond Boundaries (TBB), these pathways aim to help jobseekers overcome obstacles that can be exacerbated by displacement, such as difficulty connecting with potential employers or providing identity or credential documentation. As these programs progress from the pilot stage, the central role employers play and their impact on efforts to achieve scale have gone largely unexplored. This first-of-its-kind report aims to fill this gap by examining employers’ experiences with recruiting displaced talent and ideas for program improvements. The analysis, conducted by MPI and drawing on unpublished TBB survey data on employer engagement, draws in part on consultations with employers, policymakers, and civil-society stakeholders.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, and Refugees
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and Global Focus

434. Exploring Refugees’ Intentions to Return to Ukraine: Data Insights and Policy Responses

Author:
Ravenna Sohst, Tino Tirado, Lucía Salgado, and Jasmijn Slootjes
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
More than two years on from the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, hopes for a quick resolution to the conflict have faded. Although some refugees have already returned to Ukraine, despite the ongoing war, millions remain abroad. And while the European Union and countries such as the Republic of Moldova have provided temporary protection, policymakers are increasingly facing questions about whether to invest in measures to further refugees’ local integration, help them prepare for return and reintegration once conditions in Ukraine allow it, or both. This study, resulting from collaboration between MPI Europe and the International Organization for Migration (IOM), examines the factors behind refugees’ intentions to return to Ukraine or stay abroad. Leveraging IOM data across ten Central and Eastern European countries, it considers the extent to which personal and household characteristics, host-country reception conditions, and origin-country factors are linked to intentions to return in either the short or the long term. The report also provides recommendations for European and Ukrainian policymakers, international organizations, and civil-society actors regarding the ongoing response to displacement from Ukraine and approaches to managing possible future returns.
Topic:
Education, Employment, Refugees, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

435. Harnessing evidence and learning for people-centred humanitarian action

Author:
Veronique Barbelet, Josie Flint, Emmeline Kerkvliet, and Sara Philips
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:
Reforms have sought to shift the framing of humanitarian action towards a quality and equity agenda focused on the view and experiences of people affected by crisis. Reforms linked to the localisation, accountability to affected people (AAP) and inclusion agendas point to the same general vision – a humanitarian aid architecture and system that enables approaches tailored to context and individuals, including through greater leadership and participation of local actors and communities. This report synthesises the available evidence on existing approaches to people-centred humanitarian action and their outcomes, and it reviews good practices. It identifies key gaps on localisation, AAP and inclusion, explores the inter linkages between them, and reflects on the evidence needed by donors, practitioners and researchers to reform humanitarian practice and policy.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Reform, Accountability, Inclusion, and Localization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

436. Brazil-ASEAN Relations and the Energy Transition

Author:
Beatriz Pfeifer
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:
On the occasion of the XXXII meeting of the Analysis Group on China, Ambassador Piragibe dos Santos Terragô, Nuki Agya Utama, Executive Director of the ASEAN Center for Energy (ACE) and Juliana Rangel do Nascimento, Energy Research Analyst at Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE) share their views on Brazil-ASEAN relations and the opportunities for economic cooperation and tackling global challenges, cooperation in the energy sector and what benefits Brazil can derive from this partnership.
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, Partnerships, Economic Cooperation, ASEAN, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

437. Decarbonization alternatives for the maritime transport sector in Brazil: 2024

Author:
CEBRI
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:
In the current context, where mitigating greenhouse gas emissions is a global priority, the maritime sector faces a significant challenge: meeting the growing demand for energy due to the increase in the transport of goods and people while working to reduce its carbon emissions. The central question is how to address these challenges in a way that is both technically feasible and economically efficient. This report, available in Portuguese, provides an update on the document “Decarbonization Alternatives for the Maritime Transport Sector in Brazil,” published in 2023. The main objective is to analyze possible actions for the decarbonization of the Brazilian maritime sector. The study examines the current state of maritime transport in Brazil and explores various options for emission reductions. Furthermore, the report identifies opportunities for collaboration between the maritime sectors of Brazil and Norway through a comparative analysis of initiatives implemented for decarbonization. This analysis is essential for understanding how Brazil can advance in adopting more sustainable practices and effectively contribute to the fight against climate change.
Topic:
Maritime, Transportation, Sustainability, Carbon Emissions, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

438. Developing a Framework for Collective Data Rights

Author:
Jeni Tennison
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Are collective data rights really necessary? Or, do people and communities already have sufficient rights to address harms through equality, public administration or consumer law? Might collective data rights even be harmful by undermining individual data rights or creating unjust collectivities? If we did have collective data rights, what should they look like? And how could they be introduced into legislation? Data protection law and policy are founded on the notion of individual notice and consent, originating from the handling of personal data gathered for medical and scientific research. However, recent work on data governance has highlighted shortcomings with the notice-and-consent approach, especially in an age of big data and artificial intelligence. This special reports considers the need for collective data rights by examining legal remedies currently available in the United Kingdom in three scenarios where the people affected by algorithmic decision making are not data subjects and therefore do not have individual data protection rights.
Topic:
Privacy, Data Governance, Consent, and Digital Rights
Political Geography:
Global Focus

439. Scenarios of Evolving Global Order

Author:
Paul Samson, S. Yash Kalash, Nikolina Zivkovic, Tracey Forrest, and Bessma Momani
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The global order is under strain, propelled by the complex interplay of numerous trends and impacts. Converging factors are redefining the contours of the international system, necessitating significant adaptation by states. While the forces for change are evident, the trajectory of the new order remains highly uncertain. This CIGI special report seeks to fill a gap between the analysis of current trends and mapping of potential futures by outlining five possible scenarios for an evolving global order. These five scenarios represent a spectrum from the most modest plausible change (reform of the current system) to the most radical (transformation of the whole system due to a global shock). It is hoped that the report’s analysis will stimulate critical thinking and discussion and will help equip policy makers with the foresight necessary to navigate an uncertain future.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Geopolitics, International Order, and Multilateral Institutions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

440. Supporting Safer Digital Spaces: MENA Region Highlights

Author:
Nadia Al-Sakkaf and Natasha Chhabra
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Digital technologies are being used to inflict significant harm online, known as technology-facilitated violence. In particular, harm affects certain groups based on their gender, which is known as technology-facilitated gender-based violence. This modern form of violence perpetuates inequality and has significant impacts on its targets, including silencing the voices of women and other gender minorities online. Supporting a Safer Internet is a multi-year project led by the Centre for International Governance Innovation, with support from the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) and Ipsos. As part of the project, an international survey collected data from 18,149 people of all genders in 18 countries. Participants in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region were not asked to report their sexual orientation or gender identity due to safety and legal limitations in those countries. For this reason, this version of the Highlights report has been developed with a specific focus on the data gathered from participants in those countries. Qualitative and contextual data from the SecDev Foundation has been utilized in this report to complement and provide a deeper understanding of the statistical data derived from this project. Recommendations from the MENA region agree with the Ipsos global survey recommendations for governments, technology companies, civil society organizations and researchers.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Inequality, Gender, Digital Platforms, and Digital Governance
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

441. Negotiating Africa’s Digital Partnerships amid Geopolitical Competition

Author:
Folashadé Soulé
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Rising geopolitical tensions among China, the United States and other major powers are making digital partnership negotiations between African stakeholders and these global actors more complex. China is becoming an increasingly popular choice among African states because the country typically offers more affordable technology options to achieve digital development goals than its Western counterparts. Negotiating Africa’s Digital Partnerships — a policy research project supported by the Centre for International Governance Innovation and hosted at the Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford — looks at how these partnerships are formed as African governmental actors seek new and rising partners to help build their digital capacity. The project involves interviews with African ministers, policy makers, the private sector, and civil society actors from both francophone and anglophone Africa with a focus on digital connectivity, infrastructure, digital sovereignty, norm-setting and governance issues.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Competition, Digital Partnerships, and Digital Governance
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and United States of America

442. Freedom of Thought: Reviving and Protecting a Forgotten Human Right

Author:
Susie Alegre and Aaron Shull
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Freedom of thought is an essential plank of the international human rights framework and an inviolable freedom. It has been described by legal experts as not only the foundation of democratic society and the basis and origin of all other rights but also as a “forgotten right” that has languished unused in international human rights law for decades. However, the importance of this right and the need to protect it are becoming more urgent in the digital world. To illustrate the risks emerging technologies present to freedom of thought, Susie Alegre and Aaron Shull outline four contemporary use cases — ranging from the least invasive (data-driven persuasive technologies) to the most invasive (brain-computer interfaces) — that raise many questions: Where does the line fall between our inner thoughts and our expression of those thoughts? What does “consent” mean with respect to technologies that interface with the mind? How can inferences about our inner lives be used against us? And, critically, where is the boundary between lawful influence and unlawful manipulation of our thoughts? Over the past 10 years, recognition has been growing that the right to freedom of thought is key to our future relationship with technology. Alegre and Shull write that an authoritative statement made at the international level on the scope of the right to freedom of thought and its relationship to technology would assist domestic and regional courts, regulators and policy makers grappling with these deeply complex policy areas.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, and Freedom of Thought
Political Geography:
Global Focus

443. New Approaches and Challenges Regarding Trade, Climate Action, and the WTO

Author:
Sunayana Sasmal
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
The report examines the intricate relationship between climate change and international trade, emphasizing the necessity for global cooperation to tackle the climate crisis in a sustainable and equitable manner. Climate change poses a significant global challenge, affecting economic, social, and political aspects of life worldwide. While effective resolution requires international cooperation, achieving so is complex due to inadequate action, the distribution of the burdens of regulatory costs, and the potential of free riding—a situation reminiscent of the tragedy of the commons. Efforts for cooperation in the environmental field have included multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs), from the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, political discord has hindered progress, particularly in linking climate action with trade governance within the World Trade Organization (WTO). Tensions between the developed and the less developed regarding historical contributions to climate change and how such historical contributions qualify current levels of responsibility, inadequate climate finance despite repeated promises, and the technology divide, further complicate this issue. Limited technology transfers and the lack of enforceability of related commitments have led to growing resentment and distrust among WTO members, amid the rising number of climate-related trade measures.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, and WTO
Political Geography:
Global Focus

444. Breaking Free: Strategies for Governments on Terminating Investment Treaties and Removing ISDS Provisions

Author:
Ladan Mehranvar and Martin Dietrich Brauch
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
As we enter the second half of 2024, the need for a fundamental transformation of the global investment and policy landscape is indisputable. Only ambitious, truly systemic changes can achieve the Sustainable Development Goals of ending extreme poverty, increasing social inclusion, reducing inequality, promoting the environmental sustainability of food systems, ecosystems, and biodiversity, and urgently shifting towards sustainable energy sources. The transition towards a more sustainable and equitable legal and economic global governance system involves moving away from industries and practices that harm the environment, such as fossil fuel extraction and use, and towards renewable energy sources. It also involves fostering sustainable practices that respect and uphold the rights, needs, and priorities of individuals, local communities, and Indigenous Peoples,1 as well as respecting governments’ sovereign right to regulate in the public interest. Progress, unfortunately, often clashes with a deeply entrenched status quo. One significant obstacle facing international investment law and policymakers is the investment treaty regime, which consists primarily of a network of bilateral investment treaties (BITs), multilateral investment treaties (MITs), and investment chapters in free trade agreements (FTAs). These international investment agreements (IIAs or investment treaties) dictate the treatment of foreign investment and foreign investors by host States. They contain a broad set of substantive provisions safeguarding investors and their investments, along with a powerful investor-State dispute settlement (ISDS) mechanism that allows foreign investors to seek recourse through international arbitration in order to enforce treaty obligations. Many concerns about IIAs and the ISDS mechanism stem from the extensive substantive and procedural privileges granted to foreign investors. The ISDS mechanism, which is also found in national investment laws and increasingly in investor-State contracts, allows foreign investors to challenge legitimate regulatory measures taken by governments to achieve more equitable economic growth, address the climate crisis, respond to a global pandemic, or otherwise serve the public interest, if those measures negatively impact the investor’s bottom line.
Topic:
Climate Change, Treaties and Agreements, Reform, Multilateralism, and Investment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

445. Government Procurement, Financial Services, and Environment: Linkages and Implications for the EU and Brazil

Author:
Adeet Dobhal and Lucas Moreira Jimenez
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
The relationship between trade agreements and the environment is increasingly a priority for policymakers and civil society today. However, some of the disciplines covered by modern trade agreements have not received enough attention when it comes to their potential impact on the environment. Financial services and government procurement are two such areas, even though they are increasingly consequential topics for international trade policy and negotiations. This blind spot merits greater consideration as the connections definitely exist: the regulation of government procurement and financial services can have positive or negative implications for environmental outcomes on the ground, which makes understanding these links a crucial task. Engaging in this very task, this report focuses on the EU-Mercosur Trade Agreement, with a particular attention to the case of Brazil. Using the Agreement on Government Procurement (GPA) and the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) as an analytical base, the report examines recent and relevant trade agreements entered into by Brazil and the EU to contextualize and understand the links between environmental protection on the one hand and government procurement and financial services on the other. The insights generated are then applied to the analysis of the government procurement and financial services chapters of the EUMTA, in an effort to understand how these rules affect parties’ ability to regulate in pursuit of environmental outcomes.
Topic:
Environment, Treaties and Agreements, Trade, WTO, and Procurement
Political Geography:
Global Focus

446. Circular Economy in the Industrial Goods Sector: A Framework for Understanding Private Sector Progress and Innovation

Author:
Chris Albin-Lackey
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
A circular economy is an economic system “fundamentally based on closing the loops around systems of extraction, production, and consumption.”1 Individual participants in a circular economy reduce, reuse, and recycle. They strive to consume less. They minimize waste, especially by producing and using longer-lasting goods that do not need to be replaced often. And as much as possible, they recycle goods that can no longer be used back into the production loop, minimizing the need to extract new resources and materials from the natural world.2 Some definitions of a circular economy also emphasize the idea of minimizing harm to the natural environment and taking meaningful actions to restore it.3 Since the idea of a circular economy describes an entire economic system, it is not primarily framed around the specific, near-term behavior of individual companies within the existing economy. No complex business can attain perfect circularity within the context of our emphatically non-circular global economy. Systemic progress towards a circular economy would require strong and coherent government action in the form of regulation, support and incentives. State action would ultimately need to shape the behavior of actors across the entire breadth of the economy. The literature details more comprehensive and detailed visions of circularity and the synergies between circular economy, climate and environmental goals. Generally speaking, that literature describes the larger system and not the immediate steps companies should take to align with and support progress towards a more circular economy.4 However, individual companies can take meaningful steps forward, both alone and in collaboration with others. This paper contributes to a wider understanding of what such efforts look like in practice by studying the circular economy goals, efforts and claims of about 50 companies across the industrial goods sector. It breaks down essential elements of circular economy innovation and good practice into five distinct categories of company action–outlined below–and describes practical examples of each based on companies’ publicly-articulated claims.
Topic:
Economy, Business, Manufacturing, Innovation, and Industry
Political Geography:
Global Focus

447. Pakistan Security Report 2023

Author:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:
As the incidence of terrorist violence marked an upsurge of 17 percent in Pakistan in 2023, Pakistan's response and focus were no match to the mounting challenge of terrorism and militancy. The country's negotiation bid with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and dwindling political focus on countering terrorism due to persisting political and economic crises emboldened the banned TTP and others to regroup and escalate terrorist violence in Pakistan. The key actors of terrorist violence were also more pronounced in the year 2023; over 82 percent of the terrorism-related deaths resulted from attacks perpetrated by three major groups including the TTP [and its subsidiaries such as Tehrik-e-Jihad Pakistan], Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K), and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA). These three groups carried out over 78 percent of the total terrorist attacks recorded in the country in the year under review. These findings were revealed in Pak Institute for Peace Studies' Pakistan Security Report for 2023, which was released on 4 January 2024. The report includes the comprehensive data on violent incidents including terrorist attacks, comparative analysis of various security variables, the changing targets and tactics of militants and nature of state responses, as well as policy recommendations.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Violence, Economic Crisis, and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

448. Strategic Change in U.S. Foreign Policy

Author:
Christopher S. Chivvis, Jennifer Kavanagh, Sahil Lauji, Adele Malle, Samuel Orloff, Stephen Wertheim, and Reid Wilcox
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Making strategic changes in foreign policy is difficult for the United States. Consider, for example, the challenges that former president Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden faced in their administrations’ efforts to withdraw U.S. military forces from Afghanistan. Despite years of failing efforts to bring peace and stability to that country, and limited evidence that much improvement would come without a major reorientation of the U.S. approach, resistance to changing course was enormous. It took an outsider, Donald Trump, to set the process in motion and a long-time insider, Joe Biden, to finish it. The early 1970s U.S. withdrawal from Vietnam, which very few would criticize today, also took several years, even after a huge protest movement at home and abroad demanded it. For strategic change to materialize, the election of a president who wants change is necessary but not sufficient. Trump’s effort to put America’s global role on a new course, whatever its strengths and weaknesses, is a case in point. In areas where his ideas challenged received wisdom in the Republican Party, Congress, or the national security bureaucracy, he was stymied. Only where Trump pursued goals already favored by important groups in the foreign policy establishment did he get results. For example, he was able to tear up the Iran nuclear deal because this action had long-standing and deep support among Republican leaders, but he failed to withdraw U.S. forces from Syria because few others agreed. Trump’s approach to foreign policy generated immense drama but limited change in America’s role in the world. Regardless of whether one thinks this outcome was for better or worse, it is testimony to the power of continuity in U.S. foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, History, Donald Trump, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

449. Political Drivers of China’s Changing Nuclear Policy: Implications for U.S.-China Nuclear Relations and International Security

Author:
Tong Zhao
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The message from Chinese officials has become increasingly clear: the United States and China should first stabilize their political relationship before taking on nuclear issues.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, International Security, Bilateral Relations, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

450. Russia and China in Central Asia: Cooperate, Compete, or De-conflict?

Author:
Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Lisa Curtis, Kate Johnston, and Nathaniel Schochet
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
Despite the many proclamations that Russian and Chinese interests would collide in Central Asia, Moscow and Beijing continue to work together in service of their shared objectives. These include, most importantly, keeping the United States and the West—and democracy—out of the region, maintaining stability, and pursuing economic benefits. Fissures between Moscow and Beijing exist, especially in the economic sphere, where China has become the more dominant power, and over the potential development of the Middle Corridor trade route, which could significantly disadvantage Russia. However, Russia and China are managing these divergences, and the overarching imperative to weaken the United States provides a powerful motive for reducing or preventing any friction from derailing their broader partnership. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has heightened the Central Asian states’ apprehensions about Russia, including about its capacity to uphold its security role in the region. However, the Kremlin remains committed to maintaining its influence in the region, and the war in Ukraine is restructuring economic dynamics in ways that will enable the Kremlin to limit the extent of its declining economic influence. Looking forward, the most significant change in Russia-China relations in Central Asia is likely to occur in the security sphere, where China is likely to take on a greater role, especially as Russia’s military and security services are preoccupied in Ukraine and with the domestic challenges the war creates. Any rise in instability in the region—which could result from an uptick in terrorist threats in the aftermath of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, or from the region’s brittle autocracies—could propel China to step into a sphere where Russia has historically played the primary role but that the Kremlin will struggle to fulfill while the war in Ukraine continues. For Russia and China, Central Asia is also likely to be an important building block in their larger counterorder-building effort. The two countries are likely to sustain—and step up—their efforts to build an alternative order in Central Asia, including by deepening cooperation and broadening the number of countries participating in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to legitimize and demonstrate the benefits of their collective global leadership. This effort will face resistance from the Central Asian states that object to the concept of a Russia-China condominium of power in their region and have shown an ability to come together to resist attempts to turn the SCO into a forum that would strengthen a collective Russia-China security role in the region. The United States has an opportunity to redouble its engagement in Central Asia. The Central Asian states highly value U.S. political support for their independence and sovereignty, especially following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Washington can encourage greater connectivity and cohesion among the countries, demonstrating its support for their increasing cooperation with one another in ways that could strengthen the region’s economic attractiveness and political agency. This contrasts with the way in which Russia has traditionally dealt with the region, which is to try to capitalize on divisions and disputes among the countries. While it cannot match China dollar for dollar or supplant Russia’s cultural and political influence in the region, the United States can enhance its trade, investment, energy, counterterrorism, and diplomatic ties to these countries. Enhancing U.S. and European investment in Central Asia, especially for development of the Middle Corridor, could help prevent Russia and China from further deepening their grip on the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Strategic Interests, Cooperation, Competition, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Central Asia, and Asia

451. Stress-Testing State Power: When Governors and Presidents Diverge on Matters of National Security

Author:
Carrie Cordero
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
As the end of the first quarter of the 21st century approaches, the United States’ unique federalist system of government is increasingly relevant as it relates to national security and foreign affairs. The activities of federal, state, and local governments are increasingly intertwined with national security issues, which in modern history have been reserved for federal government leadership and responsibility. This trend is observable through the assertion of existing legal authorities by governors, legislative action taken by state legislators, and litigation driven by state attorneys general. There are two main ways that states are increasingly engaging in issues touching national security or foreign affairs. The first is by taking action that does or could potentially impact U.S. national security. This includes actions such as litigating against federal government border security and immigration policy implementation, more assertively exercising National Guard authorities to effectuate homeland security policies or conduct law enforcement activities, or engaging in international trade directly with foreign countries, for example during a global pandemic.1 A second method is by taking action in response to an actual or perceived national security threat. This includes actions such as banning state government employees’ access to TikTok, strengthening election security based on threats as reported by the intelligence community (IC), or limiting foreign investment in a state based on national security concerns.2 In short, the interplay between states and the federal government as it relates to national security is undergoing a shift. As Columbia law professor Matthew Waxman has observed, “The federalist macrostructure of our national security system has changed dramatically during the course of our history, and it will continue to evolve.”3 This trend of increasing federalism contrasts with developments during the second half of the 20th century through the early 21st century, a period characterized by tremendous growth in the federal government’s national security enterprise. Milestones from that era include the 1947 National Security Act, which established the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and the accompanying growth of the military and intelligence community enterprise. The post-9/11 era saw additional development, growth, and maturation of federal institutions engaged in national security. This era ushered in a new body of federal law and associated institutions created by those laws. These include the creation of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which concentrated the operations and activities of 22 agencies into one. It also led to the creation of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), which provides strategic direction, policy development, and management oversight to the other 17 elements of the intelligence community. Meanwhile, throughout this period, the courts afforded substantial deference to the federal government on national security issues and legal authorities.4 The activities of federal, state, and local governments are increasingly intertwined with national security issues, which in modern history have been reserved for federal government leadership and responsibility. This year, the Securing U.S. Democracy Initiative at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) began analyzing the impact of increasing federalism on national security with the aim of developing recommendations that address certain practical aspects of this trend. Although there are a variety of areas where potential tensions lie at the intersection of state action and national security policymaking, this initial research report from the first year of work focuses on two specific aspects: (1) the assertion of National Guard authorities in a domestic protest scenario, and (2) the potential impact of a social media ban related to foreign malign influence on elections. A common thread through both subject areas includes a current and evolving national security threat of malign foreign influence. To examine these issues, the CNAS Securing U.S. Democracy Initiative developed and ran two scenario exercises in May 2024 to explore how a clash of legal authorities between the federal government and state governments might play out.5 Participants in the scenario exercises included former senior government officials who previously held roles such as agency heads and general counsels, a former member of Congress, former congressional chief counsels, former senior National Guard leadership and operational-level Guard personnel, a state-level former deputy secretary of state, and national and homeland security experts and practitioners. Many of the participants have held more than one professional position relevant to the issues explored in the exercises. The participants were charged with examining fictional scenarios set in October 2024, one month before the U.S. presidential election. The scenarios roughly assumed the real-world American political landscape as it existed in May 2024, which at that time included a president who was also the presumptive Democratic nominee seeking reelection in November. The governors represented in each exercise matched the political party governing that state in the real world. Accordingly, the Texas governor in Scenario 1 is a Republican; the California governor in Scenario 2 is a Democrat. This report provides background and analysis on potential tensions that can emerge between state action and national security decision-making in the context of two separate scenario exercises. The goal of the exercises was to better understand the dynamics and decision-making that might occur when state and federal officials disagree about a matter of national security.6 Participants were advised to consider constitutional, legal, and policy factors relevant to each scenario, and to make decisions based on the role to which they were assigned. This report summarizes these tailored exercises and provides insights that emerged from them. The report then provides policy recommendations intended to mitigate the tensions that the exercises suggest can arise when federal and state authorities diverge on issues of national security that were the subject of the scenarios.
Topic:
Government, National Security, Domestic Politics, Federalism, and State Power
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

452. Potential Russian Uses of Paramilitaries in Eurasia

Author:
Kimberly Marten, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Carisa Nietsche, Nicholas Lokker, and Kristen Taylor
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
While much remains uncertain following the June 2023 mutiny of Russia’s Wagner Group and the August death of its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russia will likely continue to work with semi-state armed formations. Russia’s degraded military capacity and constrained economic resources, especially as sanctions persist, will increase the attractiveness of these organizations as low-cost tools for advancing Russian objectives and competing against the West, including to a greater extent in Eurasia where Russia likely perceives the competition as most intense. Prigozhin and his Wagner Group created a model that other opportunistic Russian actors will likely seek to replicate. Fewer financial resources available to Russia’s military and elite could increase the incentive to establish such groups, especially if these organizations can increase opportunities to improve Russia’s reputation as a reliable security provider or access new sources of wealth for the regime. Newly created organizations would likely face high barriers to entry in areas where Wagner already operates, including Africa. Therefore, if such semi-state paramilitary organizations proliferate—a prospect that has grown more likely after Prigozhin’s death—they could focus on new regions such as Eurasia. Given Russia’s declining influence in Eurasia, a region of long-standing historical importance to Russia, such groups could undertake new actions there to curry favor with Putin and the Kremlin. There are several ways the Kremlin could use semi-state security formations to advance its interests in Eurasia, including by waging political influence and disinformation campaigns, physically protecting friendly governments, sustaining Russia’s influence as a key security provider, destabilizing unfriendly governments, and limiting any threats that Russia’s diaspora population might pose to the stability of the Putin regime from abroad. Although Russian paramilitary and semi-state organizations are in many ways an extension of the malign activities carried out by the Russian state, the proliferation and increased activity of these groups would make it more difficult for the United States and its allies to attribute such actions to the Kremlin, complicating Western response options. These groups and the opportunistic individuals who lead them could, for example, stake out positions independent of the Kremlin or even at odds with it, especially in the case of extreme ethnic nationalists who have criticized Putin for not going far enough in his actions. The proliferation of these groups would also make it difficult to discern when and under what circumstances the Kremlin might be willing to escalate on these groups’ behalf.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Wagner Group, Paramilitary, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

453. Countering Coercion: Managing Chinese Gray Zone Activity in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean Region

Author:
Lisa Curtis and Nilanthi Samaranayake
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
The People’s Republic of China (PRC or China) has been engaging in gray zone activity—coercive behavior that is aimed at changing the status quo but that is below a threshold that would prompt a military response—particularly against the Philippines in the South China Sea (SCS), and these actions are raising tensions in the Indo-Pacific.1 Washington must closely monitor the situation and take steps to help protect the sovereignty of Southeast Asian nations from PRC intimidation and territorial encroachment. China makes ambiguous claims to 90 percent of the 1.3 million square miles of the South China Sea, including waters within the exclusive economic zones of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Projecting power and dominating the South China Sea, with its critical resources and central role in global trade—around $3 trillion worth of commerce transits the seaways annually—is a top national security and foreign policy goal for China.2 PRC maritime bullying is not new, but it has intensified in the past few years, especially against the Philippines. Beijing aims to convince Manila to give up its claim to Second Thomas Shoal, an underwater reef located in the Spratly Islands of the South China Sea. The Philippines makes its claim to the shoal by housing a small contingent of marines aboard a World War II–era ship, the BRP Sierra Madre, that was intentionally grounded there in 1999.3 Philippines-China tensions in the South China Sea threaten to involve the United States, which has been a treaty ally of the Philippines for over 70 years. Despite the risk that tensions could further escalate, Washington continues to stand firmly behind Manila as it employs asymmetric tactics to push back against Chinese behavior.4 PRC maritime activities and goals in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), for the time being, are focused on protecting China’s economic interests (80 percent of its energy imports flow through the Indian Ocean), gathering intelligence, and projecting power, not on asserting maritime claims.5 However, China’s unrelenting aggression in the SCS has raised concern that Beijing will soon begin to demonstrate similar behavior in the IOR. Over the past 15 to 20 years, China has expanded from sporadic to regular presence in the Indian Ocean through its naval ships, research vessels, and fishing fleets, as well as a military base. The United States and its allies and partners must not be complacent about PRC actions in the Indian Ocean Region, especially China’s submarine port visits and docking of dual-use ships such as in Sri Lanka and, more recently, Maldives. Due to the high stakes involved, the United States and its allies and partners must balance the need to deter China with the need to avoid military escalation when responding to PRC gray zone acts. When there are violations of international law and norms or when the lives of official personnel or civilians are threatened, Washington and its allies must respond.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Gray Zone, Coercion, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Indian Ocean, and South China Sea

454. Beyond China's Black Box: Five Trends Shaping Beijing’s Foreign and Security Policy Decision-Making Under Xi Jinping

Author:
Jacob Stokes
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
China’s foreign and security policymaking apparatus is often described as a metaphorical black box about which analysts know little. That is true to an extent, but at the same time, it is possible to develop a better understanding of the people, institutions, processes, and pressures that go into making China’s policies toward the world during Xi’s “new era,” that is, his time as the country’s top leader. This report pursues that objective by identifying five major trends mostly internal to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) party-state system that shape its foreign and security policymaking. In addition, the paper describes the effects that each trend generates, from bureaucratic incentives to behavioral patterns. The first trend is personalization of the system around Xi. It reduces the influence of various interest groups and therefore the need to bargain with and among them, raises the prospect of groupthink among the loyalists Xi has surrounded himself with, and potentially increases the importance of achieving certain goals for China on Xi’s watch. In addition, Xi’s centrality creates a major management bottleneck that could hamper the system during even brief absences. The second trend is empowering the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) over the state. That trend has made more officials into policy-implementers rather than policymakers, even on issues below the level of strategy. It has also increased central demands for ideological activities, such as Xi Jinping Thought study sessions. At the same time, while the leadership wants to improve coordination and might be making some progress, it stops short of actions that could allow government organs to coordinate horizontally if doing so might plausibly jeopardize the center’s control. The third trend is domestic policy headwinds and the search for alternative forms of political legitimacy for the CCP. This creates two contradictory pressures: China’s reaching out and trying to improve ties with the world, and its turn to an assertive and at times even aggressive form of nationalism to counteract stalling economic growth. It also dents the power and influence China gained through its rapid rise and its role as a massive market driving global economic growth. The fourth trend is further elevation of regime security over other concerns. This trend negatively affects Beijing’s ties with foreign countries by worsening the experience of foreigners visiting and living in China, exporting repressive political ideas and techniques to the world, and complicating how China’s foreign and security bureaucracy interacts with its counterparts. The fifth and final trend is diplomatic and military assertiveness and seeking an active global leadership role, which feeds a self-reinforcing cycle of growing tensions, requires PRC diplomats to shoehorn any activities into Xi’s marquee frameworks, and leads Beijing to build out structures of an alternative international order. Examining these trends helps illuminate the macro pressures shaping China’s foreign and security policy decision-making. Still, aspects of how the party-state makes decisions about its foreign and security policies—“known unknowns” —remain particularly opaque. These include information flows to senior leaders, the dynamic among Xi and his top advisors, and the structure and frequency of important meetings. More knowledge in those areas might shed light on larger questions related to whether there are informal constraints on Xi’s power and how Xi is thinking about eventual transfer of power.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Xi Jinping, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:
China and Asia

455. Addressing a Human Rights and Looming Terrorism Crisis in Afghanistan: The Need for Principled International Intervention

Author:
Lisa Curtis and Annie Pforzheimer
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
Pursuing the same harsh policies as it did during its previous stint in power in the 1990s, the Taliban has increasingly clamped down on the rights of women and girls since recapturing control of Afghanistan in August 2021. Restrictions on education started with the Taliban mandate in March 2022 banning girls from attending school past the sixth grade. The Taliban furthered its efforts to deny women basic rights when it announced later in the year that women could no longer attend university or work for international nongovernmental organizations. These and dozens of additional restrictions on Afghan women remain in place today. Meanwhile, terrorist threats that emanate from Afghanistan are intensifying, and the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) constitutes the main international concern, especially since it took responsibility for the March 22, 2024, attack on a concert hall in Moscow that killed at least 140 people. The Taliban opposes ISIS-K and had been fighting the group and eliminating its senior leaders, including the mastermind behind the August 26, 2021, suicide bombings that killed 170 Afghans and 13 U.S. service members.1 Regional groups like the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan are also active but face few constraints on their activities from the Taliban, with whom they share core ideological beliefs.2 The Taliban also remains allied with al-Qaeda and has even allowed the terrorist group responsible for the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States to take on leadership roles within its regime.3 Monitoring threats from ISIS-K necessitates engagement with the Taliban, but U.S. counterterrorism goals should not prevent the United States from also pressing a human rights agenda. For the benefit of the Afghan people—especially women and girls—and the long-term stability and prosperity of the nation, Washington and like-minded partners must employ both incentives and disincentives to compel the Taliban to improve human rights. Since regional countries largely ignore human rights in their dealings with the Taliban, it is incumbent upon the United States, United Nations (UN), and European Union to follow a principled approach and incorporate human rights into their agenda on Afghanistan. In the long term, relying on regional governments to take the lead in engaging with the Taliban would result in disaster for the Afghan people and international security. The best hope for shaping future Taliban behavior lies with the UN, which can speak coherently and convincingly on behalf of the international community. In his remarks following a meeting of special envoys in Doha, Qatar, in February 2024, for example, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres articulated a UN agenda for Afghanistan that would be a starting point for a coherent international strategy. He emphasized that meeting participants had achieved a consensus to focus on counterterrorism, inclusive governance where all ethnic groups are represented, human rights—especially for women and girls, with an emphasis on education—counternarcotics, and more effective delivery of aid.4
Topic:
Human Rights, Terrorism, Taliban, and Humanitarian Intervention
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

456. Disorderly Conduct: How U.S.-China Competition Upended the International Economic Order & What the U.S. Can Do to Fix It

Author:
Emily Kilcrease and Adam Tong
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
To gauge the health of the U.S.-China economic relationship, one can turn to the words of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who remarked in March 2024 that U.S. “tactics to suppress China . . . [were] reaching a bewildering level of unfathomable absurdity.”1 Rhetorical flourishes may be the one bright spot in the relationship. As tensions rise over economic restrictions and policies on both sides, economic relations have become a worrisome source of instability in the overall geopolitical relationship. The economic relationship has become increasingly dominated by security concerns, and integration is seen as not an opportunity but a risk to U.S. interests and values. The United States must develop a strong, pragmatic strategy for advancing its economic and security interests within the U.S.-China economic relationship, accounting for the fact that the security competition is now playing out across the economic landscape. To inform the development of an effective U.S. strategy for the economic relationship with China in the context of rising securitization, the United States must learn from its past attempts to advance its economic and security interests in the relationship. The first section of this report, “Where have we been?” examines past U.S. approaches, along with the challenges of pursuing similar policies in today’s geopolitical context. The second section, “Where are we going?” distills lessons from these past approaches and defines a new strategy for the United States, offering recommendations to implement it. Broadly speaking, prior U.S. strategies can be divided into two camps. First, the United States sought to bring the People’s Republic of China (PRC) into the rules-based order and incentivize it to be a responsible stakeholder.* When that failed, U.S. strategy pivoted to one of imposing costs on the PRC and taking actions to constrain behaviors that threatened U.S. economic security interests. Within those broad strategies, U.S. policymakers have pursued four main approaches, in differing combinations and intensity, all of which involve associated challenges. They are: Play by the rules: The intention of bringing the PRC into the rules-based international system was to create external pressure that would align PRC actions with U.S. economic and security interests. Key efforts under this approach included the U.S. support for the PRC’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the later U.S. attempts to negotiate a bilateral investment treaty. Challenges for the approach include the fact that rules have a weak ability to constrain state behavior in a geopolitically contested environment where national security risks arise from economic integration. We need to talk: In light of increasing complexity in the bilateral relationship, U.S.-PRC dialogues were intended to identify and advance mutual interests while providing a regular forum to attempt to resolve disputes. This is seen in the Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED) in the Bush administration and the Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) in the Obama administration. In other contexts, such as ongoing talks under the Biden administration, dialogues have served primarily to communicate the rationale for U.S. policy actions in an attempt to put a floor under the bilateral relationship.2 Challenges to this approach include that commitments made in a dialogue process may not be enforceable, the meeting can become the deliverable, and the dialogue process cannot alter underlying geopolitical shifts. Defense is the best offense: Defensive approaches relied on domestic U.S. authorities to counter specific harms created by PRC practices and policies. The United States has a wide range of economic tools (e.g., tariffs and trade remedies) as well as national security–based tools (export controls and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States [CFIUS] process for conducting national security reviews of foreign investments), all of which have been used with greater frequency over the past decade. Challenges when using these tools include the disruptive and potentially escalatory nature of defensive approaches, and the lack of clear frameworks to assess the effectiveness of defensive policies. Additionally, relying on unilateral approaches can create friction within potential economic alliances. In the United States, defensive approaches have often suffered from a blending of economic, national security, and values concerns, eroding the legitimacy of the national security argument. Have more friends: These strategies centered on efforts to shape the PRC’s external environment through the negotiation of ambitious trade and investment agreements with major trading partners, with the goal of increasing economic integration with close partners, creating indirect pressure on the PRC to level up to higher standards, and developing common approaches to address concerns with nonmarket economies. Such an approach is challenging because traditional ways of shaping the external environment have not directly addressed securitization of the U.S.-China economic relationship. U.S. domestic political realities impose a considerable constraint on the use of trade policy as a strategic tool.
Topic:
Economics, Bilateral Relations, Trade, Strategic Competition, and International Order
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

457. AI and the Evolution of Biological National Security Risks: Capabilities, Thresholds, and Interventions

Author:
Bill Drexel and Caleb Withers
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
Not long after COVID-19 gave the world a glimpse of the catastrophic potential of biological events, experts began warning that rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) could augur a world of bioterrorism, unprecedented superviruses, and novel targeted bioweapons. These dire warnings have risen to the highest levels of industry and government, from the CEOs of the world's leading AI labs raising alarms about new technical capabilities for would-be bioterrorists, to Vice President Kamala Harris’s concern that AI-enabled bioweapons “could endanger the very existence of humanity.”1 If true, such developments would expose the United States to unprecedented catastrophic threats well beyond COVID-19’s scope of destruction. But assessing the degree to which these concerns are warranted—and what to do about them—requires weighing a range of complex factors, including: The history and current state of American biosecurity The diverse ways in which AI could alter existing biosecurity risks Which emerging technical AI capabilities would impact these risks Where interventions today are needed This report considers these factors to provide policymakers with a broad understanding of the evolving intersection of AI and biotechnology, along with actionable recommendations to curb the worst risks to national security from biological threats. The sources of catastrophic biological risks are varied. Historically, policymakers have underappreciated the risks posed by the routine activities of well-intentioned scientists, even as the number of high-risk biosecurity labs and the frequency of dangerous incidents—perhaps including COVID-19 itself—continue to grow. State actors have traditionally been a source of considerable biosecurity risk, not least the Soviet Union’s shockingly large bioweapons program. But the unwieldiness and imprecision of bioweapons has meant that states remain unlikely to field large-scale biological attacks in the near term, even though the U.S. State Department expresses concerns about the potential bioweapons capabilities of North Korea, Iran, Russia, and China. On the other hand, nonstate actors—including lone wolves, terrorists, and apocalyptic groups—have an unnerving track record of attempting biological attacks, but with limited success due to the intrinsic complexity of building and wielding such delicate capabilities. Today, fast-moving advancements in biotechnology—independent of AI developments—are changing many of these risks. A combination of new gene editing techniques, gene sequencing methods, and DNA synthesis tools is opening a new world of possibilities in synthetic biology for greater precision in genetic manipulation and, with it, a new world of risks from the development of powerful bioweapons and biological accidents alike. Cloud labs, which conduct experiments on others’ behalf, could enable nonstate actors by allowing them to outsource some of the experimental expertise that has historically acted as a barrier to dangerous uses. Though most cloud labs screen orders for malicious activity, not all do, and the constellation of existing bioweapons norms, conventions, and safeguards leaves open a range of pathways for bad actors to make significant progress in acquiring viable bioweapons. But experts’ opinions on the overall state of U.S. biosecurity range widely, especially with regard to fears of nonstate actors fielding bioweapons. Those less concerned contend that even if viable paths to building bioweapons exist, the practicalities of constructing, storing, and disseminating them are far more complex than most realize, with numerous potential points of failure that concerned parties either fail to recognize or underemphasize. They also point to a lack of a major bioattacks in recent decades, despite chronic warnings. A more pessimistic camp points to experiments that have demonstrated the seeming ease of successfully constructing powerful viruses using commercially available inputs, and seemingly diminishing barriers to the knowledge and technical capabilities needed to create bioweapons. Less controversial is the insufficiency of U.S. biodefenses to adequately address large-scale biological threats, whether naturally occurring, accidental, or deliberate. Despite COVID-19’s demonstration of the U.S. government’s inability to contain the effects of a major outbreak, the nation has made limited progress in mitigating the likelihood and potential harm of another, more dangerous biological catastrophe. New AI capabilities may reshape the risk landscape for biothreats in several ways. AI is enabling new capabilities that might, in theory, allow advanced actors to optimize bioweapons for more precise effects, such as targeting specific genetic groups or geographies. Though such capabilities remain speculative, if realized they would dramatically alter states’ incentives to use bioweapons for strategic ends. Instead of risking their own militaries’ or populations’ health with the unwieldy weapons, states could sabotage other nations’ food security or incapacitate enemies with public health crises from which they would be unlikely to rebound. Relatedly, the same techniques could create superviruses optimized for transmissibility and lethality, which may considerably expand the destructive potential of bioweapons. Tempering these fears, however, are several technical challenges that scientists would need to overcome—if they can be solved at all. The most pressing concern for biological risks related to AI stems from tools that may soon be able to accelerate the procurement of biological agents by nonstate actors. Recent studies have suggested that foundation models may soon be able to help accelerate bad actors’ ability to acquire weaponizable biological agents, even if the degree to which these AI tools can currently help them remains marginal.2 Of particular concern are AI systems’ budding abilities to help troubleshoot where experiments have gone wrong, speeding the design-build-test-learn feedback loop that is essential to developing working biological agents. If made more effective, emerging AI tools could provide a boon to would-be bioweapons creators by more dynamically providing some of the knowledge needed to produce and use bioweapons, though such actors would still face other significant hurdles to bioweapons development that are often underappreciated. AI could also impact biological risks in other ways. Technical faults in AI tools could fail to constrain foundation models from relaying hazardous biological information to potential bad actors, or inadvertently encourage researchers to pursue promising medicinal agents with unexpected negative side effects. Using AI to create more advanced automated labs could expose these labs to many of the risks of automation that have historically plagued other complex automated systems, and make it easier for nonspecialists to concoct biological agents (depending upon the safety mechanisms that automated labs institute). Finally, heavy investment in companies and nations seeking to capitalize on AI’s potential for biotechnology could be creating competition dynamics that prioritize speed over safety. These risks are particularly acute in relation to China, where a variety of other factors shaping the country’s biotech ecosystem also further escalate risks of costly accidents.
Topic:
Security, National Security, Biosecurity, Artificial Intelligence, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

458. The China-Russia Entente in East Asia: Contending with Authoritarian Partnership in a Critical Region

Author:
Jacob Stokes, Evan Wright, and Nathaniel Schochet
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
Closer cooperation between China and Russia is a major force driving global geopolitics. But how relations between the two authoritarian powers are shaping specific regional and functional areas remains understudied. This report helps to fill that gap for the critical region of East Asia. The China-Russia relationship has improved despite—and, in some ways, because of—Russia’s war in Ukraine. Beijing helps to fuel Russia’s war machine and defends the principles Moscow uses to justify the invasion. Both powers are also deepening and expanding their relationship beyond Ukraine. The pair cooperate across a range of fields, from military affairs to economics and global norms. Undoubtedly, current and potential fissures remain in the bilateral relationship. However, the leadership in both countries carefully manages these tensions to ensure they do not derail the overall relationship. Beijing-Moscow coordination extends to East Asian hot spots, including the areas around Japan, the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan, and the South China Sea. Around Japan, China and Russia work together to advance their respective territorial claims and pressure a rival Northeast Asian power and close U.S. ally. China and Russia use multiple military tools in pursuit of those goals, including joint aerial and naval patrols, joint exercises, and incursions into Japan’s air defense identification zone. Together, these activities put significant operational strain on the Self-Defense Forces, Japan’s military, as they respond. On the Korean Peninsula, China and Russia have turned away from multilateral cooperation to manage the North Korea threat and toward blaming democracies and reaching out to Pyongyang instead. Russia has moved closer to North Korea to help offset Moscow’s diplomatic isolation and barter for weapons. But that cooperation has not yet undermined China’s preferences or interests. Beijing maintains its own working relationship with Pyongyang while coordinating with Moscow to blunt international pressure on North Korea. How China and Russia manage their relations in East Asia will be a major factor shaping the regional diplomatic and security environment. To the south, Russia increasingly backs Beijing’s actions to pressure Taiwan as Taipei reaches out to democracies worldwide. Moscow’s support for Beijing has been particularly pronounced during major cross-Strait events in recent years. In the South China Sea, Russia tries to balance historical relationships with Southeast Asian states even as its power wanes and subservience to China deepens. For example, Russia’s cooperation on energy projects with Vietnam shows that Beijing’s and Moscow’s regional interests sometimes diverge. How China and Russia manage their relations in East Asia will be a major factor shaping the regional diplomatic and security environment. Moscow’s presence and power in East Asia have already suffered because of its disastrous war in Ukraine. Over time, Russia likely will become even more subservient to China. The China-Russia entente might therefore prove most useful for Beijing in its home region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Authoritarianism, Partnerships, and Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia

459. Income Innovation in the Not-for-Profit and For-Purpose Sectors in Australia

Author:
Gemma Hardie and Min Wah Voon
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
Abstract:
This report shares the findings of research by the International Women’s Development Agency (IWDA), conducted in 2019 and 2023, on income innovations in the not-for-profit and for-purpose sectors in Australia. A Rapid Scan of Income Innovations in the Not-For-Profit and For-Purpose Sectors in Australia draws from interviews with 26 individuals and organisations about diversifying funding beyond traditional grants, fundraising and philanthropy. The intended outcomes of the research were to: Identify income innovations in the not-for-profit and for-purpose (NFP+FP) sectors that currently generate untied income (excluding traditional funding) Help inform IWDA’s broader strategic planning and decision making.
Topic:
Development, Innovation, Philanthropy, and Non-profits
Political Geography:
Australia

460. Palestine 2023: Palestinian Perception of Governance

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
On the eve of October the 7th, the Palestinian perception of PA governance was grim: trust in the PA leadership, PA public institutions, civil society organizations, and Hamas was low and declining; perception of corruption in PA institutions was overwhelming; and the public assessed the performance of the government in providing security, keeping the prices down, and narrowing the gap between rich and poor as bad or very bad; but satisfaction with service delivery was mixed These are the results of the latest wave of the Arab Barometer (AB) poll in Palestine, the 8th to be conducted since the start of these polls in the Arab World. This report is restricted to findings related to Palestinian perception of governance. The poll was conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip essentially during the period immediately before the start of the October the 7th war in the Gaza Strip and its envelop on the Israeli side.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, Institutions, Survey, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:
Middle East and Palestine

461. Palestine 2023: Palestinian Perception of Migration

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
On the eve of October 7, about a third of Gazans and about a fifth of West Bankers said they were considering emigrating from Palestine. The main drivers seem economic, political, educational, security and concerns about corruption. The most preferred destination for immigration is Turkey, followed by Germany, Canada, the United States and Qatar. The vast majority of Palestinians reported receiving no remittances from relatives in the diaspora. The vast majority supports the right of foreign domestic workers in Palestine to always have their passports, to a day off a week, and to a bank account in which they receive their salaries. These are the results of the latest wave of the Arab Barometer (AB) poll in Palestine, the 8th to be conducted since the start of these polls in the Arab World. This report is restricted to findings related to Palestinian perception of migration. The poll was conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip essentially during the period immediately before the start of the October the 7th war in the Gaza Strip and its envelop on the Israeli side.
Topic:
Security, Corruption, Education, Migration, Economy, and Survey
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and West Bank

462. Jordan: Public Opinion Report 2024

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Arab Barometer’s Wave VIII survey captures public opinion in Jordan at a critical time. As the COVID-era restrictions and changes receded, many of the challenges Jordan had been facing over the previous decade returned to the fore. From the early 2010s until Arab Barometer’s 2022 survey, there had been consistent declines in views of government and economic challenges continued to mount. However, in the weeks before the planned survey, the events of October 7, 2023 shook the region, but particularly Jordan as a country bordering Israel. Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza deeply affected Jordanian public opinion, particularly given the large number of Jordanians of Palestinian descent. Results from the survey strongly suggest that the impact from the war in Gaza not only shaped views of international actors, but also influenced perceptions of domestic issues in Jordan. In effect, it is difficult to overstate the importance of this issue for Jordanian public opinion or to accurately understand it separately from the situation in Gaza.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Migration, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Survey, Freedom, Gender, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East and Jordan

463. Gender Attitudes and Trends in MENA: The Effects of Working Women (2023-2024)

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Gender equality continues to be elusive in many parts of life in countries across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Although there is widespread support for women enjoying equal rights, there has been some retrenchment on these issues in recent years. Even greater declines are found when looking at support for women having equal roles in public and private life, which were already less favored than equal rights. A significant part of these views may be tied to women’s employment. Breaking with the previous trend of improving views on gender equality, we now find an increase in support for patriarchal norms in both the private and public spheres compared to Arab Barometer’s last survey in 2021-2022.
Topic:
Women, Employment, Survey, Gender Equality, and Gender Roles
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

464. Migration in the Middle East and North Africa (2023-2024)

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Migration has been a major issue affected the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has for decades. Many citizens across the region have sought to leave their homelands in search of life in foreign countries. Arab Barometer has been monitoring attitudes toward migration in the region since 2006. The newest Wave VIII surveys between 2023 and 2024 reveal that sizable percentages of people across the region want to leave their countries in pursuit of better living conditions elsewhere. Levels of desire to emigrate, however, vary based on domestic conditions and whether it is actually possible to emigrate. For example, while nearly half of Tunisians want to leave their country, fewer than a fifth of Kuwaitis share this wish. These levels have remained largely stable in recent years for the countries surveyed. Potential migrants tend to be young and with a college education. Youth generally are more likely to express their desire to leave their countries and embark on a life elsewhere. The same is true for those with better education; in part, the college-educated may be more likely to expect to be able to find better jobs and opportunities than those with no more than a secondary education. At the same time, gender plays a lesser role in most countries surveyed.
Topic:
Education, Migration, Economy, and Survey
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

465. Lebanon: Public Opinion Report 2024

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Lebanon continues to struggle with the long shadow of the 2019 financial collapse, made even worse by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the August 2020 Beirut port explosion. In 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reached a Staff-Level Agreement (SLA) with Lebanese authorities which would provide the equivalent of three billion USD in aid conditional on significant political reforms (source). Two years later political maneuvering and infighting has successfully prevented the implementation of any of the required political reforms and none of the multi-billion-dollar aid has been released. The citizens of Lebanon are suffering. Most citizens say they struggle to cover their monthly expenses, there has been a sharp increase in food insecurity, and all citizens, regardless of income, suffer near daily electricity outages. Lebanese citizens lay the blame for the pervasive socio-economic ills at the feet of their government. No one has confidence in the government’s ability to solve the country’s problems. The long-term crisis has resulted in increasing apathy towards the political system, especially among the less economically stable. Citizens are increasingly likely to say the type of government the country has does not matter for people like them.
Topic:
Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Migration, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Discrimination, Survey, and Political System
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

466. Iraq Public Opinion Report 2024

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
If uncertainty was the key theme reverberating through Arab Barometer’s 2022 seventh wave findings in Iraq, emergent stability—however slight—is the main one echoing its eighth wave, at least with respect to domestic politics. To be sure, the country still faces many challenges, and protests over corruption, elections, women’s rights, climate change-induced power outages, among other issues have continued to episodically arise. But public sentiment appears to be responding to the efforts of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani’s government, which has begun to tackle some of the country’s most pressing issues. For Iraqi citizens, corruption remains the biggest challenge facing the country, though there is a considerable increase in the share of citizens who suggest that the government is tackling the issue. Economic grievances, chief among which are a lack of jobs, also continue to preoccupy citizens. More than half of all Iraqis are confronting food insecurity, and sizable numbers are adapting negative coping strategies to access food. Even more pressing than the affordability of food is the affordability and availability of housing. Still, a small but rising share of citizens positively assess the government’s efforts to create jobs and curb inflation. So, despite ongoing challenges, optimism about the future of the economy is on the rise, signifying the reversal of an otherwise downward trend that had been effect since 2013.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, and Survey
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

467. Climate Change Impacts in Bangladesh: What Climate Change Means for a Country and its People

Author:
International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:
This report is a scientific synthesis by the International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD) in collaboration with Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET). It is intended to inform policymakers, media, the private sector, civil society, academics and anyone looking for country-level information on the impacts of climate change in Bangladesh. It has been reviewed internally before publication.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Natural Disasters, and Vulnerability
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

468. Enhancing Trilateral Security Cooperation: Korea, the United States, and Indonesia

Author:
Sook-yeon Lee
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
Sook-yeon Lee argues that Indonesia serves as an ideal partner for the United States and South Korea to advance their objectives in the Indo-Pacific region and that the three countries should expand areas for trilateral cooperation. While the bilateral South Korea-Indonesia and US-Indonesia partnerships have deepened over the past several decades, trilateral security cooperation remains unexplored due to the differing scopes of cooperation between the two bilateral relationships. Lee outlines several areas in which the three countries should expand trilateral cooperation and contribute to strengthening regional security. Due to Indonesia’s desire for neutrality and South Korea’s concerns regarding its ties with China, Lee recommends a cautious approach to initiating trilateral cooperation in maritime security and counterterrorism before gradually expanding to additional areas. Such an approach both addresses Indonesia’s immediate cooperative needs and aligns with areas that South Korea and the United States have already identified within their respective partnerships with Indonesia. However, the primary challenge facing trilateral security cooperation is maintaining mutual trust and ensuring the leaders of all three countries are committed to upholding trust as the foundation of trilateralism. Domestic politics and foreign policy considerations of the three countries further complicate efforts to enhance trilateral security cooperation. Thus, Lee recommends that the three countries strengthen strategic dialogues to understand and respect the differences in each country’s respective core interests to ensure the establishment of a durable trilateral partnership between South Korea, Indonesia, and the United States.
Topic:
International Relations, Bilateral Relations, Strategic Interests, Regional Security, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:
Indonesia, South Korea, North Korea, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

469. Camp David and US-Japan-ROK Trilateral Security and Defense Cooperation: Consolidating the Northeast Asia Anchor in the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Yasuyo Sakata
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
Yasuyo Sakata provides a historical overview of US-Japan-ROK defense cooperation in Northeast Asia, from the Korean War to the Camp David Summit, explaining how the trilateral partnership was redefined as an Indo-Pacific partnership and incorporated the “Northeast Asia Anchor.” Sakata argues that Japan and the United States have taken the lead in reconstructing the Indo-Pacific security architecture through their Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategies, and that the US-Japan-ROK trilateral relationship has been incorporated into this framework alongside other alliances such as the Quad and AUKUS. Sakata explores how Korea’s shift back towards the Indo-Pacific under President Yoon’s leadership has allowed for expansion of the scope of US-Japan-ROK trilateral cooperation, as affirmed during the Camp David Summit. However, Sakata contends that a comprehensive defense approach is needed in the Indo-Pacific involving allies and partners to build upon this foundation and strengthen defense and security cooperation amidst the challenges posed by North Korea, the Taiwan Strait, maritime security, cybersecurity, and space. Action is essential, as time is running out to solidify gains from the Camp David Summit and build a stable relationship. Therefore, Sakata argues that Japan and South Korea should strengthen relations deliberately yet cautiously before domestic politics potentially spoil recent progress.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Alliance, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

470. Trilateralism in the Wake of the 2022 Jolt Toward Bipolarity in the Indo-Pacific and World

Author:
Gilbert Rozman
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
Gil Rozman argues that trilateralism reached unprecedented levels in the first two decades of the 21st century. Russia, Japan, and South Korea each sought different triangular frameworks to position themselves at the pivot of great power relations in Northeast Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region. However, Rozman contends that by 2024 trilateralism had shifted to reinforce bipolarity amidst great power competition. After describing three types of triangular frameworks, Rozman examines the transformation of trilateralism in the Indo-Pacific region from 2022 to 2024 (particularly in Northeast Asia), analyzes the challenges military security, economic security, and national identity gaps pose to trilateralism, and evaluates the potential impact of leadership on triangular relationships. The shift from what Rozman calls triangular pivots to alliance triangles in international relations is primarily driven by security concerns yet also by economic vulnerability and national identity gaps. For Korea, the US-Japan-ROK alliance triangle, which was solidified at the Camp David Summit, is at the center of triangular solidarity. Given the polarized international and regional environment, Rozman argues it is unlikely that leadership could reverse the current trend of alliance triangle consolidation in the near future.
Topic:
Security, Alliance, Strategic Competition, Regional Politics, and Trilateralism
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Indo-Pacific

471. US-South Korea Cyber Cooperation: Towards the Higher-Hanging Fruits

Author:
Jenny Jun and So Jeong Kim
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
In the past decade, the US and South Korea faced a relatively narrow set of challenges in cyberspace, notably North Korea’s cyber crime facilitating sanctions evasion. In the next decade, however, the two countries will face a more diversified set of challenges with growing North Korean ties with Russia, its involvement in the war in Ukraine, and intensifying US-China competition. The US and South Korea must develop a joint playbook for responding to scenarios of disruptive cyber operations targeting South Korean public and private sectors and prepare for an even more difficult environment for curbing North Korea’s cyber crime as Russia provides a way out. Over the past two years, the US and South Korea have significantly deepened and broadened cooperation on cyber issues and have expanded cooperation further to trilateral and multilateral settings. The two countries established several regular high-level and working-level dialogues, have issued joint sanctions and threat advisories, and deepened mil-to-mil cooperation. However, 2024 has been a watershed in terms of shifting geopolitical dynamics on and around the Korean peninsula. Cyber threats will become more diversified, and the bilateral relationship will be tested at the seams without a clear joint strategic concept and operational plan.
Topic:
Sanctions, Geopolitics, Multilateralism, Strategic Competition, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

472. Clean Energy Pragmatism as a Spark for US-South Korea Relations

Author:
Elan Sykes
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
The United States and South Korea are close allies, committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and home to advanced industrial economies. Pragmatic cooperation on clean energy technologies would aid their shared goals in climate mitigation, energy security, and supply chain resilience. US-South Korea cooperation should include pooling shared technological expertise, aligning market and carbon accounting rules, investing in constrained supply chains, and adopting well-targeted policies to encourage research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) projects for early-stage technologies like clean hydrogen and advanced nuclear power plants. Clean energy pragmatism requires acknowledgment of the constraints facing each country to ensure policies are properly scoped, politically durable, and revised iteratively in light of observed outcomes. Neither country can succeed in this multidecadal transition alone. With their shared industrial capacity, world-class innovators engaged in joint research and development, and properly aligned market standards, however, both countries can solidify their position to achieve 21st-century energy security and economic growth. Yet, policy design and implementation are never complete unless a problem is entirely solved, and climate change is not a problem that can be solved over a single presidential term. Political shifts hold the potential to either undo progress or help spur new action.
Topic:
International Relations, Science and Technology, Renewable Energy, Supply Chains, and Research and Development
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

473. Canvasing Variations in US-South Korea Cooperation on AI and Quantum Technology

Author:
Sanghyun Han
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
This paper elucidates how Washington and Seoul cooperate on AI and quantum technologies, both recognized as critical emerging technologies essential to their national interests. Technology cooperation is denoted as government-to-government efforts aimed at cultivating and developing technology, focusing on national strategies and interests. In AI, the United States holds a dominant leadership position, while South Korea demonstrates strengths in certain areas, though not across the board. Cooperation in AI primarily focuses on standardization efforts, with significant involvement of the South Korean government in partnerships with the US private sector, as well as private-sector-led bilateral research initiatives. In contrast, South Korea’s capabilities in quantum technologies are far more limited. Nevertheless, cooperation in this domain is largely centered on research collaboration, with both governments actively participating alongside international research consortia led by the United States. The differing focuses—standardization in AI and research collaboration in quantum technologies—reflect the respective strengths and needs of the two countries in these critical fields. The progression of the US-ROK alliance in this direction is both natural and beneficial, as the development of advanced and sophisticated technology is incrsaneasingly beyond the capacity of any single state alone.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Artificial Intelligence, Private Sector, Standardization, and Quantum Computing
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

474. Cooperation on Semiconductor Supply Chains and Technology

Author:
Soyoung Kwon
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
The security alliance between the United States and South Korea, once focused primarily on military defense, is evolving to include economic security and technological cooperation. The evolving partnership between the two countries, particularly in the areas of semiconductor supply chains and advanced technologies, features the deepening and broadening of the alliance in the form of a Global Comprehensive Strategic Alliance. This change is driven by intensifying competition between the United States and China, which has led to the securitization of key technologies like semiconductors. This paper examines the opportunities and challenges in deepening and broadening US-South Korea cooperation on semiconductor supply chains. While such developments support the shared objectives of advancing technological innovation, bolstering supply chain resilience, and addressing potential threats from China, challenges remain in diverging threat perceptions and concerns about collective deterrence. The study concludes that aligning strategic objectives in economic security and technological cooperation is essential to ensure the sustainability of the alliance and its ability to navigate the complex global techno-geopolitical landscape.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Supply Chains, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

475. From Security Alliance to Comprehensive Technology Centered Partnership

Author:
Scott Snyder
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
The Joe Biden and Yoon Suk-yeol administrations have embraced the expansion of economic cooperation within the US-ROK alliance, leading to the emergence of South Korea as a valued technology partner of the United States and an era of institutionalization for the bilateral relationship. This issue of Korea Policy examines the commitments of the two governments to cooperate on the development of critical and emerging technologies and is intended to capture major changes in the depth of cooperation reflected in the intensification and expansion of policy dialogues between the two countries in both technology development and the defense industrial base. Major themes highlighted across the papers include challenges to maintaining a technology-centered coalition among like-minded partners, the impact of political transition on the sustainability of technology-driven cooperation, the role of the private sector, and the implications of expanding the concept of an alliance beyond its core security-centered logic. As the alliance management baton passes from the Biden to the Donald Trump administration, an important question will be whether the Biden administration’s efforts to “lock in” institutionalized cooperation are sustainable through the political transition and whether such efforts will only be successful with “buy-in” from President Trump and his new administration.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

476. Adapting US strategy to account for China’s transformation into a peer nuclear power

Author:
David Shullman, John K. Culver, Kitsch Liao, and Samantha Wong
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
China’s rapidly improving nuclear capabilities and expanding nuclear arsenal underpin its recent rise as a nuclear peer power. For the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region, the uncertainty of China’s intentions behind this nuclear expansion poses a major challenge. It necessitates a revisit of the fundamental assumptions underpinning US and allied planning and preparation for a potential conflict with China. The 2022 White House National Security Strategy1 and National Defense Strategy2 identified China as the only competitor with both the intent and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological wherewithal to reshape the international order. The 2022 United States Nuclear Posture Review noted how China has embarked on an ambitious expansion, modernization, and diversification of its nuclear forces and established a nascent nuclear triad.3 The report further assessed that Beijing will likely possess at least 1,000 deliverable warheads by the end of the decade.4 China also sustains extensive and ambitious space operations. According to the Department of Defense’s 2022 China Military Power Report5, as of 2021, China’s 260 intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) satellites were the largest collection of such constellations globally other than the United States’. The transformation of China’s military capabilities no longer represents the linear, stepwise modernization of an outmoded military that characterized the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) for the past two decades. Since the PLA launched its major internal command and service restructuring in 2015, previous doctrinal and teaching publications acquired and exploited by Western analysts are out of date and likely declining in relevance. By extension, much of the Western analysis of PLA plans, operations, and concepts of deterrence and escalation control are also likely to be out of date. China’s rapid expansion of strategic warfighting capabilities (i.e., nuclear forces, space/counterspace systems, and cyber/information operations) represents tremendous discontinuity in the pace, scope, and scale of the PLA’s transformation, necessitating a major US reassessment of Chinese strategy, doctrine, and warfighting operations. The commonly accepted notion that deliberate Chinese nuclear force modernization is characterized as “running faster to stay in the same place” to sustain a minimal retaliatory posture is assessed to have evolved. China now has a higher likelihood of using its newfound nuclear power to more actively deter or compel6 its opponents and safeguard its core interests. This includes perceived external threats that could negatively impact domestic political interests. As a step in this reassessment, this project reevaluated China’s strategy, doctrine, and warfighting concepts in light of its ongoing rapid transformation into a peer nuclear power, examined implications of this assessment for future US contingencies in the Indo-Pacific region, and produced several actionable findings and recommendations for US government decision-makers that can be addressed in the next five- to ten-year horizon.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Conflict, and Missile Defense
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

477. A bipartisan Iran strategy for the next US administration—and the next two decades

Author:
Atlantic Council
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The United States needs a bipartisan strategy toward Iran that can be maintained across several administrations, one that works patiently and resolutely to counter Iran’s efforts to dominate the Middle East, drive the United States out, destroy Israel, and threaten Arab allies. Pressure to keep Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and to halt its malign regional influence is crucial—but won’t work absent a strategic goal of new negotiations to address both challenges simultaneously. The United States must also counter Iran’s hostage taking, assassinations, and cyber and election meddling by triggering automatic penalties and responses in lockstep with allies.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

478. The economic and social costs of the war in Gaza

Author:
Perrihan Al-Riffai
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
A year after the outbreak of the war in Gaza, which later expanded into Lebanon, the two countries in conflict, the Middle East region, and the global economy have been significantly affected. In Gaza, the war has caused nearly $18.5 billion in infrastructure damage, according to preliminary assessments by the World Bank, the United Nations, and the European Union. The onset of the war also led to supply and demand shocks, causing a 21 percent year-on-year decline in Israeli economic activity in the fourth quarter. Lebanon, already deep in an economic crisis before the war, has seen one of its few stable income sources—tourism—collapse. Additionally, as international shipping routes are redirected away from the Suez Canal to avoid risks in the Red Sea, one of Egypt’s primary sources of revenue in foreign currency. In addition to the war, a convergence of factors—high inflation, mounting debt, population displacement, and natural disasters—has created a complex crisis across the region. This combination threatens to deepen poverty and inequality while intensifying climate-related impacts. This report reviews and analyzes the economic impact of the Gaza war on the countries at the epicenter, including Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon, as well as the wider region, including the Maghreb countries and the GCC, and the global economy. It tracks the impact on overall economic growth, key sectors, and other implications such as financial volatility, disinvestment, fiscal burdens, and pressure on the oil market. While the report provides comprehensive coverage of these elements, it is worth noting that the war is expanding to involve additional players, and its impact will likely continue to grow.
Topic:
Conflict, Tariffs, Macroeconomics, Trade, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

479. Even in authoritarian countries, democracy advocates are worth investing in

Author:
Fernanda Buril, Nate Grubman, and Patrick Quirk
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Freedom and democracy are in decline globally, according to the Atlantic Council’s Freedom Index. Political freedom in particular has slumped sharply since 2019, bringing the world to a twenty-four-year low. The biggest backsliders—the places with the sharpest declines in political freedom—span every major geographic region and many are particularly relevant to US national security. There are several fundamental reasons for the United States to support strategies that aim to halt such backsliding and foster democratization, including ones that go beyond the moral obligation to support humanitarian values. For instance, research shows that democracies are less prone to enable and export transnational crime or terrorism, and democracies are better at adapting to adverse economic events and avoiding large-scale disasters, and are more reliable trading partners, offering better business opportunities by upholding the rule of law and protecting investments from the arbitrary predation of political elites. Most notably, the vast majority of people around the world continue to prefer to be governed democratically. Democracy support also strengthens the US position more broadly in the strategic contest against the autocratic rivals of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Robust democratic institutions—transparent judiciaries, capable legislatures, responsive political parties, an active civil society, and a free press—make it harder for the rulers in the autocratic bloc to co-opt elites in other countries and advance their malign agendas. But with the world experiencing a global democratic recession, questions arise as to whether supporting democracy is a losing battle. Despite the bleak recent data on global democratic progress, democracy assistance is still crucial, not only in countries undergoing political openings and democratic consolidation but also—and perhaps even more so—in countries that are backsliding. Case studies in the Middle East, Latin America, Eastern Europe, and sub-Saharan Africa suggest that using foreign assistance (in addition to and in concert with diplomacy and investment) to support democracy champions wherever they are is an effective strategy, even if the payoff is not immediately apparent at the level of a country’s political system.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, Investment, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:
Caucasus, Latin America, Lebanon, and Sahel

480. An energy and sustainability road map for the Middle East

Author:
Ariel Ezrahi
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Global warming is impacting the Middle East at more than twice the global average. In a region already beset by territorial and religious conflicts, this is alarming: Beyond the immediate human suffering from war, the region’s people face severe consequences of global warming. While it is uncertain if humanity can entirely avert this crisis, it is clear that mitigation and adaptation measures are essential to address its worst effects. Climate change respects no borders; for instance, nature does not distinguish between Areas A, B, and C in the West Bank, nor does it differentiate between the rising sea levels along the shores of Tel Aviv and Beirut. Cross-border cooperation will be critical to implementing effective mitigation and adaptation measures. As temperatures rise and extreme weather events, such as intense but infrequent rainfall, become more common, countries in the region must work together to optimize and expand sustainable energy and water resources. This report was partially written prior to the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas on Israel, which triggered the ongoing Gaza war. Beyond the physical reconstruction required in Israel and the Gaza Strip, the traumas on both sides of the border could take decades to heal. Now, with the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, the region has a rare opportunity for rebuilding and peace. On the Israeli side, it is clear that new Israeli leadership will be critical for rebuilding and unifying the country, as well as for mending relations with the Palestinians and the wider region. Saudi Arabia has indicated it would need to see a clear path for an independent Palestinian state for normalization of its relationship with Israel to proceed. Other regional powers, such as the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain, have cooled relations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. For there to be a realistic possibility of building on the Abraham Accords—or even taking small steps to increase cooperation in the region—a “New Middle Eastern Order” will need to be established. A comprehensive new US plan could shape this new order. The United States, seen by some in the region as disengaging, now has an opportunity to counter that perception by helping to establish a “New Middle Eastern Order” based on a tangible plan for strong intra-regional energy and climate-related cooperation, alongside efforts to facilitate a permanent solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. For example, the energy and climate component could form a cornerstone of the US strategy for the region. The alternative is a region increasingly mired in conflict due to dwindling resources in the face of a worsening climate crisis and a deepening of existing conflicts fueled by a destructive Iranian agenda. Furthermore, this alternative risks exacerbating global conflict-driven emissions and environmental disasters, as seen recently with the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Although tangible cooperation on energy- and climate-related issues has so far been limited, this can—and indeed must—change. The purpose of this piece is to highlight some specific areas where cooperation can be undertaken and advanced under the task force platform outlined below.1
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Markets, Governance, Sustainability, and Energy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Gulf Nations

481. What African producers of critical minerals can learn from Indonesia’s experience

Author:
Bradford Simmons
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
With its success in nickel production, Indonesia has become a model for those seeking to harness “resource nationalism” for domestic benefit. Substantial foreign investment, particularly from China, has been a key variable for Indonesia to become a globally relevant industrial center for nickel processing. While there are insightful lessons that policymakers from mineral-resource-rich African countries can learn from Indonesia, there must be caution in implementing some of Indonesia’s policies, especially export bans as they have had mixed results and depend heavily on external factors. Africa holds a third of the world’s mineral reserves, including critical minerals essential to the green energy transition. Yet, the continent remains underexplored, underdeveloped, and underfunded, receiving just 8–10% of global exploration and investment. Global demand for minerals like copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium is expected to generate $16 trillion over the next 25 years, with sub-Saharan Africa potentially capturing $2 trillion. However, to realize this potential, Africa must shift from raw extraction to value-added processing. Developing local processing industries would boost economic diversification, job creation, tax revenues, and technological advancements while reducing dependency on raw-material exports. To achieve this, African governments must prioritize coherent, forward-looking policies that emphasize value creation. Commissioning technoeconomic studies to identify key supply chain opportunities will help guide investments. Establishing Special Economic Zones for critical minerals can attract international investors and foster industrial hubs. Leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area to create robust commodity markets would position Africa as a competitive player. Additionally, streamlining regulatory processes, supporting carbon-free power projects, and advancing infrastructure investments through global initiatives such as the US PGI and EU Global Gateway can facilitate critical mineral processing and transport networks. Export bans, though well-intentioned, often backfire. Historically, they have reduced exports, weakened global trade positions, and worsened infrastructure challenges in energy, transportation, and logistics. Without effective governance and political stability, such policies risk stalling economic growth rather than stimulating it. By focusing on industrial infrastructure, value-added processing, and policies that promote long-term diversification, African countries can move beyond the limitations of raw extraction. With transparent governance and strategic investments, the continent can transform its mineral wealth into a driver of sustainable economic development.
Topic:
Environment, Energy Transition, Critical Minerals, and International Markets
Political Geography:
Africa, Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and Indo-Pacific

482. Negotiating Uncertainty in UK-EU Relations: Past, Present, and Future

Author:
David Henig
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Ten key points to negotiating the UK-EU relationship: Europe has been weakened by difficult UK-EU relations at a time of international challenge. Eight years after the Brexit referendum a new UK government and European Commission provides a good opportunity to reset approaches and put obstructions aside. Too big for either side to ignore, this will always be an important, time-consuming, and slightly chaotic relationship – which thus needs a much firmer footing based on the following shared understanding: Probably the broadest, deepest bilateral relationship in the world, adding the world’s second largest trade flow to integrated neighbourhood challenges, meaning inevitable complexity and ongoing negotiation of many different topics. This has been insufficiently recognised, and should ideally be considered jointly, e.g. in terms of a shared vision, road map, scoping, implementation, otherwise even agreeing sequencing will always be problematic; Wide scope, with inevitable challenges and tensions, requiring regular senior-level contact, this should start with annual summits that develop mutual understanding, supported by regular meetings between UK Ministers and Commissioners, senior official meetings, and the sharing of information at expert level. There should not be a single undertaking negotiation; Divorce taking time to overcome, emotions on both sides are settling but still livelier than normal between nominal allies, with many involved who would simply like the unattainable return to the pre-2016 state, and others just as strongly opposed in various ways; EU needs to be less rigid given the UK will not neatly fit into existing models, there being too many mutual interests, from which will flow multiple arrangements and deals. Showing greater willing to a now more constructive counterpart means creativity in how to structure the relationship to deliver mutual interests as well as specific asks of both sides; Negotiations must informally include many actors, such as businesses, civil society, lower-level governments, academics, listening to whom should be the basis for the UK and EU shaping mutually acceptable deals. All of these stakeholders will equally have to learn to live with the uncertainty and difficulties of an ongoing relationship with multiple strands; UK previously a naïve negotiator failing to understand this collaborative yet still competitive, and increasingly public, nature of modern trade negotiations, or its new third country status. Positive signs of learning shown with the Windsor Framework should be developed – to include ‘Team UK’ negotiating, openly testing ideas with specialists, and understanding the EU, importance of trust in implementation, and limits of taking back control; Northern Ireland will always require special handling as a part of the UK whose peace process requires strong relations with the rest of the country and the EU. Ambiguity and flexibility will continue to be needed; There is no perfect model for future UK-EU relations, all potential options having drawbacks rendering them somewhat unstable, and no swift negotiating path to most of them. While the UK is not a member of the EU there will always be barriers to trade and movement of people which both sides with their priorities will aim to discuss, negotiate, and seek to ease; Public communications and understanding around the relationship must be improved, whether that is in terms of negotiating progress, realistic options for both sides, care with overly-simplistic messaging, or particular terminology with often multiple meanings; Despite uncertainty there will be a steady move towards deeper, more robust arrangements, since both UK and EU have strong interests in making these happen, but this will not be a quick or steady process, instead it will come from considerable engagement, flexibility, and patience, to create something that is tolerable if always slightly sub-optimal.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, European Union, Regional Integration, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

483. The Caliphate Complaint Box: Stories of Islamic State Governance in the Words of Those Who Lived It

Author:
Daniel Milton and Muhammad Al-'Ubaydi
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In the summer of 2014, the terrorist organization known as the Islamic State declared itself the governing entity of a vast swath of territory across Iraq and Syria encompassing millions of people, who were now ‘citizens’ of the Islamic State. Although it is well-known that the group’s governance approach carried with it the strict and sometimes violent implementation of their interpretation of Islamic law, there has been comparatively limited evidence regarding the nature of the complaints that arose during this time. This report relies on 396 previously unreleased primary source documents created by both members and civilians of the Islamic State highlighting problems encountered under the group’s governing eye—the Caliphate Complaint Box. These documents provide a vivid first-hand account of the challenges people faced living under the Islamic State. They demonstrate that, despite the group’s propaganda effort to highlight its establishment of a just society with a well-functioning government, the reality on the ground was much different. Given that any single analysis or summary cannot capture all the nuance included in these documents, the Combating Terrorism Center is releasing all of these documents through its website in an effort to promote future research on the Islamic State. However, this report does highlight some of the initial findings from an analysis of the material: The Islamic State faced regular bureaucratic challenges. Despite the promise of being different than other forms of government, the Islamic State struggled to keep track of paperwork and people, at times leading to confusion and disillusionment among those living under its control. Women living in the caliphate faced an uphill battle. Although perhaps not surprising, these documents drive home the inequity faced by women in the caliphate when it came to resolving issues of concern. Several complaints show women having to repeatedly seek help in order to provide for their families after losing husbands. Additionally, the documents contain multiple examples of men in positions of power targeting women with abuse. Citizens suffered raids and harsh treatment by both religious and security-oriented police. The laws of the Islamic State were strict, but these documents show that the execution of justice could be both harsh and uneven. People living in the caliphate might find their children hit during a raid or their vehicle confiscated at a checkpoint without a clear indication as to why or what the resolution would be. The Islamic State military bureaucracy faced challenges in recruiting, equipping, and managing its forces. The Islamic State was a group formed through military conquest. The Complaint Box documents show that, despite these successes against an array of external adversaries, the group’s military wing struggled with issues, including but not limited to the production of military weapons, leadership of training units and battlefield forces, and putting soldiers in the right units and places.
Topic:
Terrorism, Governance, Women, Islamic State, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

484. The Navy Working Capital Fund and Operational Resource Management Decisions: A Case Study Analysis

Author:
James Taylor, Elliott Branch, Lewis Crenshaw, Peter Levine, Dorothy Robyn, and Sean Stackley
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA)
Abstract:
The Assistant Secretary of the Navy (Financial Management and Comptroller) (ASN (FM&C)) commissioned the National Academy of Public Administration (Academy) to evaluate how resource management decisions impact the NWCF and identify strategies for improving decision-making processes to safeguard the fund's integrity and DON’s operational efficacy. This report of an Academy Panel of Fellows (Panel) examines the effect of resource management decisions—including programmatic, budgetary, and execution—on the NWCF. Furthermore, it assesses whether program and budget development decision-makers consider the potential impacts of their choices on the NWCF. Finally, it provides actionable recommendations to enhance and improve DON's resource management decision-making processes, delivery methods, organizational support structures, and forecasting (near-, mid-, and long-term), as well as guidance for their effective implementation.
Topic:
Government, Navy, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:
United States of America

485. Ensuring Excellence: A Guide for Cultivating Healthy High-Performing Agencies

Author:
Lisa Coleman, Nicholas Hart, Peter Hutchinson, Kathryn Newcomer, and Sean O'Keefe
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA)
Abstract:
Many public agencies have long struggled to build their workforce given laborious and time-consuming hiring practices, limited salary flexibilities, and promotion rules that value longevity over expertise and performance. Effective recruitment and retention practices are especially critical with the current wave of public service retirements. This report is a playbook for agency leaders and managers with practical strategies and evidence-based practices to improve their agency’s organizational health in order to achieve meaningful and measurable results. The report underscores how important a strong internal culture focused on high performance is to the delivery of essential public services. Among other things, the playbook includes: Guidance on how to continually assess and adapt to evolving work environments, Practices to enhance organizational health to achieve results, and Resource links and case examples to support implementation of these strategies and actions.
Topic:
Recruitment, Implementation, Public Administration, and Organizational Assessment
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

486. How to do strategic foresight

Author:
Samantha Cristoforetti and Alessandro Marrone
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
F oresight” is on the rise. What was a discipline restricted to a few people decades ago has become very popular. That’s good news – a wider use of foresight can have a number of benefits, as this guide explains. However, along with that popularity, the expectations about the scope of foresight have also grown. We can even find an aura of mystery surrounding the discipline. This is less helpful, as there is a risk of creating misperceptions about the nature of foresight. That is why it is necessary to limit the scope of foresight from the outset by clearly stating what it is and is not. Foresight is not about predicting or knowing the future. Despite the fantastic cover of this work, the aim of foresight is not envisioning what the future holds for us, i.e. predicting what is going to happen. Instead, foresight aims to make us more aware of what may happen, through a broad study of phenomena that are already present, so as to inform potential decisions. It may seem paradoxical, but a thorough analysis of the present reality is the basis of good foresight. Foresight is not a body of expert knowledge. It is not the realm of “experts” who pretend to hold special insights on the future. Rather, foresight is a methodical approach to thinking about possible futures that, at the same time, allows us to reveal and refine the assumptions and understandings we have about those futures. That does not mean that expertise does not matter. To the contrary, good foresight must integrate thematic, regional, scientific, military, political, economic, environmental, and other expertise to provide valuable insights. Foresight is not an end in itself. Instead, foresight is the first step to building better strategies and policies and improve the decision-making process in general. In this regard, foresight helps us to understand how potential, plausible futures could look like. Foresight helps us challenge our understandings and assumptions about the future, preventing bias that could hinder our plans and policies. Furthermore, foresight can help us shape our idea of a preferred future and set the basis of our effort to achieve it. Strategic foresight goes beyond pure foresight practices and is about integrating foresight into the policy-making process. This is a statement closely related to the previous idea and justifies the title of this guide. Chapter 4, “Setting the Policy,” is precisely dedicated to linking foresight to the policy/strategy-making process. As highlighted there, developing strategies and plans can be enhanced and supported by considering multiple alternative futures and their implications. This guide will use both terms, strategic foresight and foresight, the latter more specifically referring to the discipline of exploring, anticipating, and shaping the future in a systemic way.1 This guide aims to provide a simple tool for policy practitioners to start navigating the foresight discipline and help foster foresight thinking in policy teams and organizations. It does not intend to present a set of last-generation methodologies. Instead, this guide offers some simple tools and techniques of proven effectiveness that can be used by non-expert personnel. Nevertheless, simplicity is not equivalent to a lack of rigour, so the guide proposes a complete foresight process, starting with driver identification and scenario-building and ending with preparing and monitoring subsequent policies.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Foresight
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

487. Inequality kills: on Russian combat ineff ectiveness in Ukraine and beyond

Author:
Pilster Ulrich and Olesya Vinhas de Souza
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
What would Russia’s military strategy be in a war with NATO? Before 2022, many analysts worried about the scenario in which Russia, leveraging a tactically profi cient and well-coordinated combined arms force, could swiftly overrun the Baltics in a matter of days. Drawing on a statistical analysis of historical battles and an examination of Russian force structure and equipment losses in Ukraine, we challenge this view. Endemic inequality within the Russian Armed Forces will continue to impede their adoption of the sophisticated tactics necessary for manoeuvre warfare. Therefore, we anticipate that a future potential Russian attack would resemble a war of attrition. Unable to quickly out-manoeuvre NATO forces, Moscow would aim to deploy overwhelming fi repower and manpower against Allied troops and civilian populations, with an aim to infl ict widespread and sustained destruction.
Topic:
NATO, Military Strategy, Inequality, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

488. Controlling the danger: managing the risks of AI-enabled nuclear systems

Author:
Noah Greene
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Research on AI and nuclear weapons often discusses three broad categories of risk: technical risks, pitfalls in human-machine teaming, and strategic stability concerns. The potential solutions for mitigating these risks include international political declarations, United Nations level reporting, and a limited purpose AIenabled nuclear weapons treaty.
Topic:
NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Weapons, Risk, Artificial Intelligence, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

489. Friends in space: NATO and Japan cooperation beyond the skies

Author:
Nanae Baldauff
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
NATO and Japan share compelling reasons for space security cooperation: worldwide ownership of space assets; Japan as among six most capable space powers; and the application of Article 5 to space. Japan is attractive to NATO in terms of space technology, space capabilities, operation, and funding. NATO is attractive to Japan because NATO is becoming a backbone of space-based data hub contributing to the Alliance’ Multi-Domain Operations. NATO-Japan space security cooperation should be pursued through political, operational, educational, and industrial/commercial partnership, and joint training and exercises.
Topic:
Security, NATO, International Cooperation, and Space
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

490. The Commitment to Reducing Inequality Index 2024

Author:
Anthony Kamande, Jo Walker, Martin Matthew, and Max Lawson
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Now in its fifth edition, the Commitment to Reducing Inequality Index (CRI) assesses the commitment of 164 countries and regions to fighting inequality. The CRI 2024 offers powerful new evidence on whether governments are acting to reduce inequality through policies on public services, fair taxation and labour rights. It reveals negative trends in the vast majority of countries since 2022. Four in five have cut the share of their budgets going to education, health and/or social protection; four in five have backtracked on progressive taxation; and nine in ten have regressed on labour rights and minimum wages. Nine out of ten countries have backtracked in one or more area, meaning without urgent policy actions to reverse this worrying trend, economic inequality will almost certainly continue to rise in 90% of countries. Despite some progress, the IMF and the World Bank could do far more to prioritize the fight to reduce inequality. This report assesses their actions across the three CRI pillars of public services, taxation and labour rights. It makes recommendations for how the IMF and World Bank should stop promoting policies that increase inequality and instead support those policies that reduce it, as a matter of urgency.
Topic:
Inequality, Tax Systems, Public Service, Wages, Jobs, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Global Focus

491. The Economic Impact of Aviation in Dubai

Author:
Sami Hamroush, Tim Porteous, and Mohammad Shafat
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Dubai is a major global hub for air travel, with its airports serving more than 88 million passengers and the city welcoming 17 million international visitors in 2023. As a global transport and tourism hub, Dubai’s aviation sector plays an integral role in the emirate’s economy. This study—commissioned by Emirates and Dubai Airports—quantifies the economic contributions of Dubai’s aviation sector. This comprehensive study includes an assessment of direct economic activity generated by businesses in the aviation sector, indirect activity stimulated across the sector’s supply chain, and induced activity supported through wage-funded consumption by employees. The study also assesses the catalytic impact of tourism spending facilitated by the aviation sector.
Topic:
Economics, Tourism, Aviation, and Airports
Political Geography:
Middle East, Dubai, and Gulf Nations

492. Economic Cooperation: A Driver of Stability in the MENA Region?

Author:
Valeria Talbot
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region faces a complex landscape where economic cooperation is increasingly linked to regional stability. For decades, economic factors have influenced the foreign policy of MENA countries. However, since 2020, shared economic challenges – exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic, oil market fluctuations and the global repercussions of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – have spurred initiatives for rapprochement. The October 7 attacks and subsequent Gaza and Lebanon conflicts pose a threat to such progresses. Can economic partnerships serve as a basis for lasting peace in MENA region? What forms of collaboration could enhance stability in the face of persistent security challenges? What are the primary constraints and challenges that limit the potential of economic cooperation as a stabilizing force in the MENA region?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economic Cooperation, COVID-19, Armed Conflict, Abraham Accords, Russia-Ukraine War, and Stabilization
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North Africa, and Gulf Nations

493. Global Dynamics in a Year of Domestic Contestations and Political Shifts

Author:
Karim El Aynaoui, Paola Magri, Samir Saran, Harsh V. Pant, and Vivek Mishra
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
2024 marked the largest election year in history, with millions of people across the world going to the polls to elect their representatives and leaders. However, in the Global North, Donald Trump’s decisive election victory in the United States threatens to undermine multilateral governance structures that are already under strain. In the Global South, emerging economies from the expanded BRICS group and beyond strive to speak with a single voice, and their actions continue to be shaped by national dynamics. How will domestic shifts impact international collaboration across the globe? Will we experience new trade wars? Will efforts to tackle climate change slow down? And how to restore hope and support a newfound impetus in multilateral governance? Seeking to answer these questions, the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in India and the Policy Center for the New South (PCNS) in Morocco, are delighted to announce the launch of the 2nd Annual Trends Report, involving experts from the three think tanks.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Development, Science and Technology, Governance, Economy, Global South, Multilateralism, Donald Trump, Energy, Geoeconomics, and Digital Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

494. Competing for the Global South: Asia and the Quest for Leadership in a Multipolar World

Author:
Filippo Fasulo and Nicola Missaglia
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
As the world transitions into a multipolar era, an increasing number of nations are challenging Western dominance and reshaping the global order. Central to this shift is the rise of the Global South, led by Asia’s powerhouses - India and China. These two nations, each offering distinct governance, development, and security models, are in a growing competition for influence. Countries across the Global South are advocating for a more equitable international system, demanding debt restructuring, climate action, and solutions to emerging security challenges. What strategies will India and China propose to address these demands? And how will their rivalry shape the future of the Global South as a unified force on the world stage?
Topic:
Leadership, Global South, Multipolarity, International System, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

495. The Rise of Fragmentation. A New Economic Security Era?

Author:
Alessandro Gili and Filippo Fasulo
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Multiple crises have shaken the foundations of the global economy, and the resulting instability has yet to recover. Instead, it has led to increasing fragmentation along political and ideological lines. The current geoeconomic order is increasingly defined by the use of advanced trade defense and economic security tools, such as tariffs, trade barriers, sanctions, and export restrictions, which have become more sophisticated. Major economies are adapting to this new reality by shaping their own definitions of economic security, particularly to safeguard critical and high-tech sectors. The EU, the US, and China are each calibrating their economic security strategies, seeking a balance between openness and protection that maximizes their respective advantages. However, in this shifting international landscape, new actors are emerging with the potential to influence the global balance of power. What type of "new globalization" is emerging? Could economic security tools become the new normal in the global economy? What are the key economic security strategies adopted by the world's leading economies?
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Ideology, Tariffs, Trade, Economic Security, Instability, Fragmentation, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and United States of America

496. Logistics in Transition. Exploring Geopolitical, Economic, and Technological Trends

Author:
Carlo Secchi and Alessandro Gili
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
International cooperation is paramount for building global connectivity and resilient logistic systems. Geopolitical shifts and climate change pose challenges that could disrupt the effective functioning of logistics. This underscores the need for policymakers and operators to implement mitigation measures that also enhance the security of supplies. Amidst global turmoil, diversification and redundancy of transportation systems and modes are crucial, with the security of supplies serving as the backbone for the smooth functioning of the global economy. In a geopolitically charged context, the challenges of the digital and green transition remain at the forefront. How can the resilience of value chains be increased in the face of geopolitical factors, while simultaneously navigating the dual transition? How can logistics adapt to and benefit from the new international wave of potentially protectionist industrial policies? How can risks be reduced, and what are the strategies for Europe, Italy, and the involved enterprises?
Topic:
International Cooperation, Economy, Logistics, Supply Chains, Green Transition, and Digital Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

497. Key Takeaways for Enhancing Security Governance in the Amazon

Author:
Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
The Amazon faces a variety of security challenges, ranging from historical issues such as high homicide rates, theft, drug trafficking, and violence against women to new threats to the region’s rich biodiversity, including deforestation, illegal logging, illegal mining, and land grabbing. Considering the complexity of these problems and the diversity of actors involved in seeking solutions, an effective governance agenda has become urgent. This publication seeks to address a gap in the discussion regarding initiatives that can enhance coordination among entities responsible for identifying, preventing, and combating environmental crimes in the Amazon region. It analyzes practical governance experiences and identifies key attributes that can improve the performance of national and subnational institutions in addressing crime and illegal activities. Additionally, it examines four governance cases that stand out in one or more of these key attributes, bringing relevant practices and lessons learned to strengthen security governance in the Amazon. In this context, where the Amazon region is subject to the alliances and conflicts that are inherent to organized crime dynamics and their intersections and exchanges with environmental crimes, we analyze alternatives for enhancing state (or institutional) capacities and provide recommendations for implementing security governance in the Amazon at three levels: local (municipalities), subnational (states), and regional. These measures aim to address the cross-border challenges of illicit activities and insecurity.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Biodiversity, and Environmental Crime
Political Geography:
South America and Amazon Basin

498. Dynamics of the Ecosystem of Environmental Crimes in the Brazilian Legal Amazon

Author:
Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
The Brazilian Legal Amazon is the site of a complex ecosystem of environmental and related non-environmental crimes that impact both the environment and the people living there. Organized environmental crime contributes in many ways to the destruction and degradation of the forest, significantly accelerating land use changes in the world’s largest tropical forest. The loss of Amazon forest cover is causing irreversible damage to Brazil and the world by accelerating climate change. Despite growing recognition among actors inside and outside the Brazilian state, there is still a lack of systematic and in-depth understanding of the scope, scale, and dynamics of organized environmental crime in the Amazon region. While there has been significant progress in the development of georeferenced information systems to monitor deforestation in the Legal Amazon – an area spanning nine states in the northern region of the country – Brazil lacks data on organized crime to assist the government and society in addressing one of the most significant challenges of our time. In an effort to understand the phenomenon, the Igarapé Institute is launching the Strategic Article Dynamics of the Ecosystem of Environmental Crimes in the Legal Amazon. This article presents an overview of the different crime patterns in the states that make up the Brazilian Amazon based on updated data on Federal Police operations in the region covering 2016 to 2022. This analysis is essential not only to understand the Brazilian State’s efforts in combating organized environmental crime but also to reveal the transnational connections of environmental crime, links between environmental crimes and drug-related offenses, the presence of rural militias, and these crimes in Indigenous Lands.
Topic:
Climate Change, Police, Indigenous, Militias, Organized Crime, Deforestation, and Environmental Crime
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and Amazon Basin

499. Practical Guide for Formulating Public Policies to Prevent Violence Against Women

Author:
Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
Violence against women is a complex and devastating reality, manifesting in various forms, including physical, sexual, psychological, and economic abuse. Within this context, this guide presents programs and initiatives evaluated by renowned organizations such as the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (JPAL), the Inter-American Development Bank, the World Bank, and UN Women, highlighting approaches that have shown high effectiveness and efficiency in preventing violence against women. The goal is to use these practical experiences as a foundation for evidence-based public policy formulation to prevent violence against women. We begin by analyzing the risk and protective factors associated with violence against women. Using the “Pyramid of Gender-based Violence” by the Institute for Studies on State and Participation – Health as a framework, we explore the different forms in which these factors operate, from individual to structural. We also provide context for the legal landscape related to violence against women, emphasizing the role of the Maria da Penha Law as a regulatory milestone in Brazil. Based on examples of programs already implemented and evaluated worldwide, the guide underscores the importance of initiatives that promote women’s financial autonomy through access to employment opportunities, professional training, and entrepreneurship. It also emphasizes efforts to challenge gender stereotypes and foster relationships based on mutual respect and equal rights. The guide reaffirms the need for public policies focused on preventing intrafamilial and domestic violence, including strengthening the protection network for women with specialized support services and effective security measures. It suggests implementing educational and awareness programs on gender violence to transform environments where violence against women occurs, such as schools and homes. Additionally, it advocates for promoting safe and inclusive spaces. Finally, the guide highlights the importance of involving all sectors of society in implementing these policies, including the government, civil society, the private sector, and the community at large. Only through coordinated, long-term efforts can we create an environment where all women can live free from violence and with dignity.
Topic:
Development, Public Policy, Domestic Violence, Gender, Protection, and Violence Against Women (VAW)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

500. The State of Torture Report

Author:
Sinqobile Makhathini, Amina Mwaikambo, and Cathy-Ann Potgieter
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:
Torture in South Africa has a complex and troubling history rooted in colonial and apartheid practices, where torture was used frequently by state security forces to suppress dissent and control Black and marginalised communities. Despite legal reforms during the post-apartheid dispensation, concerns about torture and ill-treatment persist, often associated with law enforcement practices and conditions in detention centres. Challenges therefore remain in fully eradicating torture practices and ensuring accountability within the justice and law enforcement systems. This report aims to examine the prevalence and persistence of torture in South Africa to assess the current gaps in legal protections, as well as provide recommendations for enhanced monitoring, accountability, and victim support.
Topic:
Torture, Law Enforcement, Accountability, and Protection
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa