Content Type: Special Report / Publication Year: within 10 Years

201. The US-India Clean Energy Partnership and Quad Provide Overlapping Pathways to Produce Clean Energy

Author:: Nischal Dhungel and Sethuram Senthil Kumar
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Mr. Nischal Dhungel and Mr. Sethuram Senthil Kumar, Consultant at the World Bank Group and Energy Engineer at both TRC Companies, Inc. and MCFA, respectfully, explain that "Robust partnerships with the United States, strategic cooperation within the Quad framework, and collective efforts across the Indo-Pacific region drive India's transformation in the energy sector."
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Governance, and Energy
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, Nepal, North America, and United States of America

202. Japan's Arctic Policy: Current Status and Challenges

Author:: Sakiko Hataya
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Ms. Sakiko Hataya, Research Fellow at the Ocean Policy Research Institute of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation in Japan, highlights the increasing importance of the Arctic in Japan's ocean policy and touches upon how Russia's invasion of Ukraine impacts the execution of Japan's Arctic policy.
Topic:: Climate Change, Science and Technology, Sustainability, and Collaboration
Political Geography:: Russia, Japan, Asia, and Arctic

203. US Perspectives on Sino-Russian Cooperation in the Arctic and Roles for Partners

Author:: Rebecca Pincus
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Dr. Rebecca Pincus, Director of the Polar Institute at the Wilson Center, explains that "The development of Russia’s Arctic hydrocarbons is dependent on foreign investment and advanced technologies; as the West has withdrawn from Russia, China is an important, if imperfect, substitute..."
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, and Hydrocarbons
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Arctic, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

204. Sino-Russia Arctic Relations: The View from Singapore

Author:: Hema Nadarajah
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Dr. Hema Nadarajah, Program Manager for Southeast Asia at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, explains that states seeking to deepen their engagement in the Arctic, such as Singapore, may find themselves trying to balance tensions, especially in the wake of Sino-Russian cooperation in the region and US-China strategic competition.
Topic:: Climate Change, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, and Cooperation
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Asia, and Arctic

205. Arctic Geopolitics and Governance: An Indian Perspective

Author:: Anurag Bisen
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Capt. (IND) Anurag Bisen (Retd.), Senior Fellow at the Vivekananda International Foundation, explains that "India needs to step up its engagement to secure its increasing national interest in the Arctic" and "must also use its equities with all the Arctic states to facilitate collaboration, ensuring access to infrastructure, research areas, and data."
Topic:: International Relations, Climate Change, Governance, Geopolitics, Multipolarity, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, South Asia, India, North America, and Arctic

206. South Korean Perspectives on China-Russia Collaboration in the Arctic

Author:: Young Kil Park
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Dr. Young Kil Park, Research Fellow at Korea Maritime Institute, explains that "While the immediate impact of China-Russia collaboration in the Arctic on South Korea is limited, it remains wary of the long-term implications for its economic and security interests."
Topic:: Security, Economics, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Collaboration
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Arctic

207. How Will the Prabowo Administration Shape Indonesia’s Foreign Policy as a Middle Power?

Author:: Calvin Khoe
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Mr. Calvin Khoe, Lead Analyst at FPCI Research & Analysis, explains that "Indonesia enjoys several comparative advantages that empower it as an activist nation and differentiate it as a middle power," and wagers that "President Prabowo will strive to make Indonesia an even more influential middle power."
Topic:: International Relations, Strategic Autonomy, Middle Power, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Southeast Asia

208. United States, UNESCO, and International Relations through Cultural Heritage

Author:: Neel Kamal Chapagain
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Dr. Neel Kamal Chapagain, Professor at Ahmedabad University's Centre for Heritage Management, explains that "[c]ultural heritage is becoming a more prominent vehicle for building international ties" and "support for or opposition to global cultural heritage campaigns, like UNESCO, have been used [in US presidential campaigns] to make political statements."
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Culture, Heritage, UNESCO, and Emerging Powers
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

209. Rise of Economic Nationalism in Emerging Economies and the Influence of Elections

Author:: Michio Ueda
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Mr. Michio Ueda, President of Geopolitics & Strategy and Visiting Lecturer University of Tokyo, examines "the intersection between economic nationalism and recent elections in Indonesia and India" and finds that "industrial policy is not a significant point of political contention" and elections "serve as an opportunity to gain legitimacy for policies supporting economic nationalism."
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, Nationalism, and Elections
Political Geography:: China, Indonesia, India, Asia, and United States of America

210. US-Japan Alliance Resiliency Amid Risks

Author:: Daniel Aldrich and Lei Nishiuwatoko
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Dr. Daniel Aldrich and Ms. Lei Nishiuwatoko, Professor of Political Science at Northeastern University and M.S. Candidate at Georgetown's School of Foreign Service, respectfully, explain that "[t]he United States and Japan are uniquely positioned to mitigate the existential risk of climate change" and explore how "further policy alignment on the possession and stockpile of nuclear materials... would further strengthen the alliance."
Topic:: Climate Change, Bilateral Relations, Nonproliferation, Alliance, Resilience, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, and United States of America

211. Understated and Sometimes Contentious: A Perspective on the US-Australia Alliance in Southeast Asia

Author:: Ja Ian Chong
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Dr. Ja Ian Chong, Associate Professor of Political Science at National University of Singapore, explains that "[the] Australian-United States alliance is probably one of the most under-appreciated and misunderstood security partnerships in Southeast Asia," and it "helps undergird the status quo in Southeast Asia."
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Alliance, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Australia, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

212. Strategic Partners or Fickle Friends? Indonesia’s Perceptions of the US-Australia Defense and Security Relationship

Author:: Lina Alexandra and Pieter Pandie
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Dr. Lina A. Alexndra and Mr. Pieter Pandie, Head of the International Relations Department and Researcher at Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Jakarta, respectfully, explain that "while [Indonesia] certainly considers Australia and the United States as key partners in navigating the region's security landscape... Indonesia has desired a more independent Australia, given its proximity"
Topic:: Security, Regional Security, Perception, Defense Cooperation, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Australia, Southeast Asia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

213. Vietnamese Perspective on the Significance of the US-Australia Alliance in Southeast Asian Security

Author:: Bich T. Tran
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Dr. Bich Tran, Postdoctoral Fellow at National University of Singapore and Adjunct Fellow Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., examines the implications of the alliance for Southeast Asian security from the perspective of Vietnam, a country that has long pursued a policy of non-alignment while actively engaging with both the United States and Australia.
Topic:: International Relations, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, Regional Security, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Vietnam, Australia, Southeast Asia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

214. The Australia-US Alliance from a Thai Perspective: An Unbreakable or Unpinnable Partnership?

Author:: Jittipat Poonkham
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Dr. Jittipat Poonkham, Associate Professor of International Relations at Thammasat University, argues that "AUKUS, as well as the Australia-US alliance, seems to be an “unpinnable” alliance in the sense that it cannot be firmly pinned down in Thailand’s strategic mindset."
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Partnerships, Alliance, and AUKUS
Political Geography:: Australia, Thailand, Southeast Asia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

215. Where are the Growth Potentials in CESEE? An Illustration of Sectors and Products Using the Product Space

Author:: Francesca Guadagno, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, and Robert Stehrer
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This paper investigates the sectoral and export structures as well as the product spaces of 11 economies in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE). We first employ an analysis based on revealed comparative advantages (RCAs) to identify promising sectors for future growth and then combine this analysis with a product space approach to detect related and complex products that could help these economies diversify and upgrade. The RCA analysis shows that the CESEE countries still hold a comparative advantage in manufacturing, although a slightly negative trend emerged between 2013 and 2020. Meanwhile, some services – particularly computer programming, consultancy and information service activities – have emerged as the most successful sectors to date. The product space analysis indicates that for the majority of the CESEE economies, it is possible to identify relatively complex products that could be easily targeted to spur upgrading. We also find that while we run the analysis separately for each of the 11 CESEE countries, the identified opportunities are often the same. While this is intuitively explained by the similar specialisations of these 11 countries, from a policy perspective this finding implies that each country has to deploy a battery of indicators to identify profitable and realistic niches within these broadly defined product categories.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, and Competition
Political Geography:: Europe

216. Still in the Fast Lane? How can EU-CEE Get its Groove Back?

Author:: Tomáš Slačík
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This report revisits the growth and convergence performance of the 11 EU member states in Central, East and Southeast Europe (EU-CEE11) over the past few decades, examining the underlying drivers, structural changes and the outlook. The review aims to assess the sustainability of the current economic model and identify areas for economic policy to focus on boosting growth. The findings show that convergence has significantly slowed since the global financial crisis, with value added growth declining in virtually all industries. This slowdown is attributed to structural rather than cyclical factors, with total factor productivity (TFP) being the main driver as well as the primary culprit behind the deceleration. Since medium-term growth projections for the region are not optimistic, the EU-CEE11 countries must make substantial efforts to improve their economic models. Key areas to focus on include energy, underutilised labour and improving human capital. While still very competitive, the manufacturing sector needs to move towards higher value added activities.
Topic:: European Union, Economic Growth, Trade, Regional Economy, and Convergence
Political Geography:: Europe

217. Toward Innovation-driven Growth: Innovation Systems and Policies in EU Member States of Central Eastern Europe

Author:: Alexandra Bykova, Viktrória Döme, Richard Grieveson, Francesca Guadagno, and Doris Hanzl-Weiss
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This study builds on our previous analyses of a new growth model for the EU member states of Central and Eastern European (CEE), focusing on fostering innovation-driven development. We aim to explain the types of innovation systems and policies that enhance domestic innovation capabilities, drawing on global best practices. A critical evaluation of the current innovation landscape in EU-CEE countries is conducted, particularly in the context of the green and digital transitions. The study assesses the strengths and weaknesses of both national innovation initiatives and opportunities provided by EU industrial and technology policy frameworks. Based on these insights, we offer actionable policy recommendations to promote innovation-driven growth, enhance productivity, and boost economic convergence over the medium term, taking into account the unique political and historical contexts of the EU-CEE countries. Additionally, we prepare country-specific briefing notes tailored to the individual development needs and opportunities of each nation.
Topic:: Development, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, Economic Growth, Innovation, Economic Competition, and Convergence
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

218. AI and the US Economy: Optimism, Pessimism, or Realism?

Author:: Fredrick Hernandez, Zach Moller, and Gabe Horwitz
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Third Way
Abstract:: There were 130 websites on the internet in 1993; today there are 1.1 billion.1 Over those 30 years, the US economy quadrupled in nominal size and tripled in per capita income.2 The digital age has been very good for America. But it has also concentrated wealth and opportunity. The richest American in 1993 would only be the 101st richest today in inflation-adjusted dollars.3 There are now 735 billionaires living in America today, compared to fewer than 75 in the world in 1993.4 Meanwhile, the gains for the middle class were not stellar. Real median household income grew a solid, but not spectacular, 32% during the internet age. Most of that gain accrued to the two-fifths of working age America with a college degree.5 “50% to 70% of the changes in the US wage structure are intimately linked to automation, particularly digital automation,” MIT economist Daron Acemoglu estimates.6 That was the digital age. What about the artificial intelligence age? Ask McKinsey partner Michael Chui about AI and he says “it can be great not only for companies but for humankind.”7 But Eliezer Yudkowsky, co-founder of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute, said that if someone builds an over-powered AI, he expects “that every single member of the human species and all biological life on Earth dies shortly thereafter.”8 What seems clear is that whether we’re addressing the future of humankind or the well-being of the workforce, policymakers and industries must make intentional choices to get the best of AI and avoid the worst. Since AI will change the way we work and learn, this paper unpacks different economic projections to give policymakers a better read on what this technology will do to everything from American GDP to skill training. Broadly speaking, there are three distinct perspectives on AI and the economy. Optimists predict AI will elevate the working class, accelerate our national prosperity, and lower costs. Pessimists say AI will contribute to income inequality in the United States, jobs will be automated out of existence, and large corporations will gain far more than workers and families. Pragmatists accept AI will have positive benefits to the economy but acknowledge the mixed bag of how it will affect jobs and generally call for specific actions to mitigate harms and spread benefits. Below, we explore the key takeaways from each perspective. This is a product in a multi-year series to help educate policymakers on the implications and policy choices confronting Congress and the Administration on next generation Artificial Intelligence.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Economy, Artificial Intelligence, Digital Technologies, and Optimism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

219. Washington's and Taiwan's Diverging Interests Doesn't Make War Imminent

Author:: Hargisl Shirley Martey
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Third Way
Abstract:: We are a month from the Taiwan 2024 election that sent shockwaves around the world. President-elect, Lai Ching-te (賴清德), dared to utter the world ‘independence” in a strike against the longstanding One China Policy (一个中国政策) in his successful campaign to lead the nation. The election was important enough for an increasingly assertive President Xi Jinping (习近平出席) to try (and fail) to influence the election’s outcome. Xi has been rattling cages for the last several years and has made no secret of his desire to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s thumb without explicitly ruling out the use of force. Meanwhile, a busy President Biden has had his hands full keeping allies committed to Ukraine, battling Putin-sympathetic members of Congress, while also dealing with cascading crises in Israel and the Middle East. With that as our backdrop, does Lai’s election, Xi’s frustration, and Biden’s preoccupation mean we are closer to conflict in the Taiwan Strait? In this brief analysis we argue that at present the answer is “no.” And we make this call by looking at the vantage points and early actions of each country. For America, the Taiwan election has put the country on alert. For Taiwan, domestic concerns are mainly driving voters – not cross-Strait policy. For the People’s Republic of China (PRC; 中华人民共和国), ignore the rhetoric because they’ve followed their Taiwan election disappointment by returning to their standard playbook.1 But stay tuned…. perhaps they’re saving the fireworks for Lai’s May 20 inauguration.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, Politics, Elections, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, North America, and United States of America

220. Designing a New Paradigm in Global Trade

Author:: Ryan Mulholland, Trevor Sutton, and Timothy Meyer
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: How a successful Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum could function while delivering maximum benefits to workers and the environment.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Treaties and Agreements, Sustainability, and Metals
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

221. Centering Access, Quality, and Equity and Justice in a Beyond 30×30 Ocean Strategy

Author:: Angelo Villagomez, Jasmin Graham, and Alia Hidayat
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The Biden administration should deliver an ocean conservation framework that includes new metrics for success.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Oceans and Seas, Joe Biden, and Equity
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

222. The Road to Baku, Belém, and Beyond: A 5-Year Outlook for U.S. International Climate Finance

Author:: Courtney Federico
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The United States must work to establish an ambitious new international climate finance goal this year at COP29 as part of a five-year plan to scale resources to combat the climate crisis.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, Climate Finance, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

223. 3 International Climate Priorities for 2024

Author:: Anne Christianson, Trevor Sutton, and Frances Colon
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: As President Joe Biden’s first term draws to a close, his administration must deliver on three international climate policies to catalyze a 21st-century clean energy economy and avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, Economy, Inflation, Renewable Energy, Resilience, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

224. Extreme Heat Is More Dangerous for Workers Every Year

Author:: Jill Rosenthal, Rosa Barrientos-Ferrer, and Kate Petosa
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Federal and state governments should step up efforts—including adopting heat standards—to address increased on-the-job heat-related injury, illness, and death.
Topic:: Climate Change, Health, Labor Issues, Regulation, and Heat Waves
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

225. Cement and Concrete Companies Leading the Net-Zero Transition

Author:: Jamie Friedman
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: New technologies spurred by federal support show a cleaner path forward for the highly emissive cement and concrete industry.
Topic:: Climate Change, Industry, Carbon Emissions, Green Transition, Net Zero, and Concrete
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

226. Protecting Children From Extreme Heat Is Critical for Their Health, Learning, and Development

Author:: Allie Schneider, Paige Shoemaker DeMio, and Hailey Gibbs
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: As climate change intensifies extreme heat around the globe, policymakers must take steps to develop heat standards for children and support infrastructure improvements to ensure schools, child care centers, and communities are safe and healthy places for children.
Topic:: Climate Change, Education, Children, Child Development, and Heat
Political Geography:: Global Focus

227. At Home or Abroad, U.S. Firearms Should Not Fuel Violence, Instability, and Abuse

Author:: Allison McManus and Laura Kilbury
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Congress and the Biden administration should strengthen the U.S. Department of Commerce’s efforts to prevent American firearms from reaching adversaries and fueling global violence and rights abuses.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, Weapons, and Gun Violence
Political Geography:: Israel, Latin America, and United States of America

228. Revitalizing U.S. Trade Remedy Tools for an Era of Industrial Policy in an Interconnected World

Author:: Ryan Mulholland
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: To implement an effective industrial policy, the United States needs to update its trade enforcement toolkit to meet the challenges of the modern world and utilize its existing trade authorities differently.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Economy, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: China and United States of America

229. Environmental Peacemaking in Somalia: Integrated Climate and Conflict Analysis of the Newly Liberated Areas of Hirshabelle and Galmudug

Author:: Arthur Brochen, Mohamud Mohamed Khadar, Abdirashid Artan, Delphine Virnot, and Albert Martinez
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:: This analysis assesses both the short and long-term impacts of environment- and climate-related security risks in the Newly Liberated Areas (NLA) of Somalia in Hirshabelle and Galmudug. The analysis had the objectives of (1) understanding the pathways in which environmental and climate risks can affect conflict better and (2) developing actionable recommendations for environmental peacemaking and peacebuilding in these states of Somalia. This integrated climate and conflict analysis employed a methodology based on the conflict analysis guidance from the European External Action Service (EEAS) and the climate security guidance developed by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Environment, Conflict, and Peacemaking
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

230. NATO as a nuclear alliance : NATO’s nuclear capability and its evolution in the international nuclear order

Author:: Tapio Juntunen, Jyri Lavikainen, Matti Pesu, and Iro Särkkä
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Finland’s entry into NATO marked admission to a nuclear alliance. The aim of this report is to provide an overview of the structure and trends of the international nuclear order, the basics of NATO’s nuclear deterrence and its implementation, and decision-making related to the alliance’s nuclear weapons policy. The study will also assess how Finland can participate in NATO’s nuclear deterrence policy if it so wishes and what effects NATO membership will have on Finland’s arms control policy. Nuclear deterrence constitutes one part of NATO’s deterrence mix, and the alliance views nuclear weapons as the supreme guarantee of its security. U.S. nuclear weapons form the backbone of NATO’s nuclear deterrence, and a small proportion of its nuclear weapons are stationed in allied countries. According to NATO’s statements, the purpose of its nuclear deterrence is to preserve peace, prevent coercion and deter military aggression. NATO has not made any major changes in its nuclear weapons policy in recent years. The key outlines of NATO’s nuclear weapons policy are decided at NATO summits. The alliance has its own senior body for discussion on nuclear weapons: the Nuclear Planning Group. Non-nuclear allies such as Finland have several opportunities to influence and participate in the alliance’s nuclear weapons policy. Importantly, as a member of NATO, Finland can continue its active arms control efforts.
Topic:: NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Alliance, Deterrence, and International Order
Political Geography:: Europe and Finland

231. Finland's partnerships as a NATO member: Prospects for defence cooperation in a multilateral framework

Author:: Iro Särkkä, Minna Ålander, Joel Linnainmäki, and Antti Pihlajamaa
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Before joining NATO, Finland formed several bi-, tri- and minilateral defence cooperation partnerships with its neighbouring countries and major NATO member states. After NATO accession, the role of smaller defence cooperation formats has changed in Finland’s security and defence policy. As a NATO ally, why should Finland continue to promote these forms of defence cooperation, and what will their significance be in the future? This report approaches defence cooperation from the perspective of individual NATO member states, aiming to enhance our understanding of the motives behind such cooperation in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Estonia, Norway and Sweden. It studies defence cooperation through key strategic, military, economic and political factors, such as the perceived threat environment, military capabilities, strategic culture, and the role member states play in the multilateral security framework of NATO. The report compares these six countries with Finland and identifies factors impacting potential future cooperation. The report finds that regional defence cooperation can yield positive outcomes for NATO. Bi-, tri- and minilateral defence cooperation can enhance intra-alliance policymaking and serve as a tool to build trust with key partners and allies, thus facilitating defence integration within NATO.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Partnerships, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Finland, Norway, France, Germany, Estonia, and Sweden

232. Helsinki Security Forum 2024 report

Author:: Mikael Mattlin, Harri Mikkola, Charly Salonius-Pasternak, Tyyne Karjalainen, and Minna Ålander
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Helsinki Security Forum 2024: Towards a Total Defence of Europe – From Apathy to Action? In its search for unity, Europe requires a comprehensive approach to security to build resilient societies. The third annual Helsinki Security Forum (HSF) will explore how comprehensive national security strategies and preparedness could benefit Europe on a broader scale. HSF is an annual event that gathers decision-makers and foreign policy experts to discuss pressing international security issues from a Northern European perspective.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe and Northern Europe

233. A New Vision for Peace Operations

Author:: Eugene Chen
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: Over the past eight decades, United Nations (UN) peace operations have demonstrated themselves to be valuable tools for prevention, peacemaking, peacekeeping, and peacebuilding. But they have also struggled to meet the expectations of their varied audiences, including the Security Council, host governments, and local populations. Many of these struggles stem from the supply-driven approach to how missions have been planned and deployed, which drives many of the shortcomings that are evident in missions today, such as sprawling mandates that are not focused on the political solutions necessary to resolve conflict, templated approaches to mission design and mandate implementation, and friction with other UN entities and organizations. Although these shortcomings are present throughout the mission lifecycle, they are particularly evident now with ongoing drawdowns and transitions in Mali, Sudan, Somalia, Iraq, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and as countries increasingly turn to alternatives to UN peace operations, such as peace enforcement and counterterrorism operations undertaken by regional organizations and ad hoc coalitions, despite their poor track record at fostering lasting peace. A new approach to peace operations is necessary to overcome these shortcomings, one that acknowledges that UN peace operations always operate in an environment alongside other actors and that no single entity or organization has the capacity and resources to tackle the full range of activities required to help a country towards sustaining peace. In advocating for a shift in the planning, design, and management of UN peace operations, this report provides ideas for how to implement recommendations from A New Agenda for Peace as well as considerations for the upcoming 2025 peacebuilding architecture review (PBAR). Elements of this approach can already be put into practice as part of transition contexts, where the Peacebuilding Commission and the General Assembly can play an important role in considering follow-on arrangements and how to provide countries with tailored packages of support to national prevention strategies. By allowing peace operations to better meet the expectations of key stakeholders such as the host government and Security Council while reducing friction with the UN country team and other actors, this new approach can help overcome the current crisis of confidence in UN peace operations and ensure that the UN can continue to play an important role in the maintenance of international peace and security in a time of increasing geopolitical contestation.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

234. Tipping the Scales: Towards a People-Centered Justice Approach to Resilience in Fragile Contexts

Author:: Jonathan Papoulidis, Swati Mehta, and Nate Edwards
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: Once synonymous with food security, resilience has undergone a quiet revolution over the last decade, shifting from a sector silo to an emerging paradigm of engagement for donors and multilateral institutions. This paper traces the evolution and importance of this emerging resilience paradigm and the simultaneous rise of people-centered approaches to justice (PCJ). It argues that PCJ is a vital but missing element of the new resilience paradigm and key to its success. The paper proposes a conceptual framework for a PCJ approach to resilience and offers a few illustrative examples of how the framework might be applied to fragile contexts and beyond. The examples used are not prescriptive, but rather intend to offer grounding to what is otherwise a largely conceptual framework. The application of the framework will require additional resources, on-the-ground research, and comprehensive analysis. Ultimately, the paper argues that humanitarians, peacebuilders, resilience experts, and justice actors must work together to tip the scales of justice in favor of people’s resilience in fragile contexts.
Topic:: Displacement, Justice, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Global Focus

235. The Inequalities-Environment Nexus: Tools for Catalyzing a Just Transition

Author:: Roshni Menon and Paula Sevilla Núñez
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: Transitioning to a green economy is imperative for all countries, and many have already started their journeys. The process of planning and executing a transition presents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to ensure the movement toward an environmentally sustainable and climate-safe future that benefits society as a whole and occurs in a just and equitable manner. A transition towards a greener economy is fundamentally also a matter of justice: it can save lives and improve livelihoods, as well as address historic injustices. Importantly, a just green transition can address people’s fears and uncertainties about potential negative effects on economies, livelihoods, and the environment, thus preventing backlash to the coming change and instead, widening political support. As part of collaborative effort between the Pathfinders for Peaceful, Just and Inclusive Societies hosted at the Center on International Cooperation (CIC) at New York University (NYU), the International Climate Initiative for a Just Energy Transition (IKI JET) by the German Agency of International Cooperation (GIZ), and the Ministry of Development Planning of the Republic of Indonesia (BAPPENAS), this report was developed in preparation for a workshop on just green transition administered in Bogor, Indonesia on November 2–3, 2023. This resource covers the following topics: Conceptual definition, sector affected, opportunities, and challenges for just transition. Fundamental pillars in catalyzing a just transition, including distributional impact assessments (DIA), an intersectionality-based policy analysis (IBPA) framework, and social dialogue.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Sustainability, Green Transition, and Green Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

236. Who Will Cities Be For? Inequality, Housing, and the Future of African Urbanization

Author:: Paula Sevilla Núñez
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: As urban areas absorb most of the population growth in the upcoming decades, urbanization presents unique opportunities to transform a society’s economic, social, and political landscape. How cities perform in these dimensions will determine whether societies can become more peaceful, just, and inclusive, and be effectively prepared to respond to future crises. In an urban age shaped by inequalities, policies on housing can either be a catalyzer of equitable and sustainable development or contribute to a vicious cycle of exclusion that hinders governments’ ability to address today’s global challenges. Approaching the issue of housing from a purely technical lens overlooks its political nature, wherein the tension between ensuring residents’ right to housing and promoting real estate financialization for economic gain encapsulates broader questions such as who belongs in a city, or a society’s vision of its own future. Housing is therefore not just a technical or financial issue, but also one of governance. Two-thirds of African cities that will exist in 2050 have yet to be built. Making space to house these new urban residents by building new homes presents an opportunity to do it with a people-centered approach. Effective housing governance requires dismantling past structures that perpetuate exclusionary practices; challenging simplistic narratives of urban glory that end up promoting the financialization of housing; and building coalitions that work for a renewed social contract through access to housing.
Topic:: Urbanization, Inequality, Cities, and Housing
Political Geography:: Africa

237. Beyond Access: Refugees’ Rights and Justice at Work

Author:: Emily E. Arnold-Fernández
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: Work plays a central role in the lives of refugees. When work is just, it offers economic power, personal agency, and often a sense of meaning, purpose, or even identity. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) recognize the importance of justice in relation to work. Goals 8 (decent work and inclusive economic growth) and 10 (reduced inequality) are only possible when work is just. Too often today, however, refugees have access to work only in conditions of grave injustice. Wage theft, sexual assault, and other workplace violations are common. Restrictions on refugees’ access to authorized work push them into informal, unregulated employment where justice is inaccessible. These problems show us that, to achieve SDGs 8 and 10 for refugees, we must also achieve SDG16.3: Promote the rule of law at the national and international levels and ensure equal access to justice for all. This paper aims to lay a common foundation for solutions to the justice problems refugees face in the labor market and also supports the thesis that ensuring access to justice in the workplace for refugees can facilitate mutual gains, uphold human rights, and support the achievement of the Sustainable Development Agenda.
Topic:: Refugees, Displacement, Justice, Humanitarian Crisis, and Work
Political Geography:: Global Focus

238. The Private Sector as a Partner and an Agent for Violence Reduction

Author:: Marta Bautista Forcada, Luisa Portugal, and Bojan Francuz
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: The pivotal role of the private sector in society extends beyond economic contributions. It also influences social dynamics and communities’ well-being and cohesion. This report delves into the complex and multifaceted relationship between business entities and local initiatives aimed at preventing and reducing the most serious forms of violence in communities. It presents an analysis of ongoing initiatives, with a focus on exploring the existing interactions and untapped potential of private sector actors in fostering safer environments, which in turn contributes to ongoing global mobilization efforts1 to reduce levels of violence by at least 50 percent by the year 2030. Historically, the responsibility of maintaining communal peace and security has been primarily shouldered by governmental and public institutions. However, the evolving societal landscape has ushered in a paradigm shift, recognizing the private sector’s important influence and responsibility in this domain. Most businesses, from small enterprises to multinational corporations, inherently seek stable environments for their operations, which then aligns their interests with the broader societal goals of violence prevention and community safety. This research examines the varied spectrum of private sector entities, delineating their roles and impacts within different local contexts, with a focus on urban areas. It underscores the dual nature of businesses as both beneficiaries of peaceful environments and potential contributors to enhancing the risks of violence in such environments. Through a series of case studies, the report is primarily concerned with showcasing successful collaborations between the private sector and community initiatives aimed at violence reduction, with a focus on those occurring in urban contexts. These examples serve to illustrate how businesses can act as catalysts for positive change, employing their resources, influence, and networks to foster a culture of peace and stability. Furthermore, the piece proposes a framework for viewing the private sector as a partner with a vested interest in violence reduction efforts and the halving global violence agenda, as well as recommendations for engagement and interventions. In doing so, this report aims to streamline collaboration between businesses, governmental bodies, and civil society, ensuring a unified and comprehensive approach to addressing the root causes of multiple forms of violence and enhancing community resilience. This report reevaluates the roles of business in society and underlines the need to further invest in examining the private sector impact on violence reduction. It advocates for an integrated approach where the private sector is recognized as a crucial ally in the quest for peace and security, aligning economic objectives with societal needs. By harnessing the private sector’s potential as a partner in violence reduction, the research contributes to the broader discourse on achieving sustainable peace and advancing the United Nations (UN)’s global development agenda—the 2030 Agenda—for a more peaceful, inclusive, and just world.
Topic:: Development, United Nations, Partnerships, Violence, Private Sector, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

239. Local Justice Systems in Colombia: The Road to Collaborative Justice that Prioritizes People

Author:: Edgar Ardila Amaya and Laura Ospina
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: People-centered justice puts people and their needs at the center of justice policies, programs, and services. Starting by understanding their most common problems and experiences in trying to resolve them, people-centered justice takes a data-driven and evidence-based approach to prevent and resolve people’s problems. Through its focus on fair outcomes for people, people-centered justice is different than current approaches to justice, which tend to focus on processes and institutions and seem to serve a few rather than all. Colombia’s Local Justice Systems (LJSs) are a good example of a people-centered approach to justice. Their success hinges on effective coordination and collaboration among various justice actors, spanning national and local levels. The strategy did not emerge from a policy established by a particular entity but, rather, from the convergence of various initiatives in an organic way over a period spanning more than two decades in different regions of the country. This case study seeks to put a spotlight on Colombia’s LJSs and their contribution to the 2030 Agenda, particularly focusing on the target of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 16.3, which aims to facilitate universal access to justice through effective, accountable, and inclusive institutions at all levels. The study analyzes the convergence process that has shaped the current state of the LJS, aiming to identify its constituent elements and assess the evidence of its impact across various levels and institutional structures within the Colombian justice system, as well as its role in bridging the gap in access to justice. It highlights successful experiences and lessons learned in the strategy’s implementation which may be useful for other contexts. To thoroughly understand the initiative, the study begins by discussing key challenges to access to justice in Colombia and shows how the LJSs emerged as a response to these local hurdles. Given the multifaceted nature of the LJSs evolution, the study emphasizes how state actors at different levels, supported by international cooperation, converge with community experiences. In doing so, it offers important lessons on the importance of collaboration and coordination at the local level for improving people’s access to justice.
Topic:: Sustainable Development Goals, Accountability, and Justice
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, and Latin America

240. From Rhetoric to Reality: Uncovering Strategic Division and the Linkages Between Polarization and Inequality

Author:: Raquel Jesse
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: Amid the economic, climate, and health crises, in addition to deteriorating socio-economic conditions and escalating conflicts in many contexts around the world, societies are facing a new major threat: fragmentation. That is, many societies are experiencing a mixture of increased divisions at various levels of society characterized by worsening polarization, not merely along partisan lines, but across various groups. In addition, the prevalence of hate speech and violence, intermixed with a heightened sense of discord, the resurgence of marginalization for some communities, and widespread insecurity, distrust, and hardship, has resulted in a fracturing both at the political and community level. In a time when we need to work together more than ever, the era of soundbites, disinformation, and reactionary rhetoric makes thoughtful debate and dialogue, consensus-building, and coalition formation increasingly difficult. This paper aims to disentangle the threads of escalating global fragmentation, the dynamics fueling it, and emerging solutions to counteract its adverse effects. This work stems from listening to the recurring concerns and challenges from policymakers and civil society about navigating the emerging backlash, division, and disinformation when pursuing inclusive policy agendas. Whether it is to recognize Indigenous communities in legal documents, plans to implement a transformative climate agenda, policies to advance gender equality, increase public investments, or provide safe passage and resources to people on the move—divisive narratives are derailing these efforts. This report attempts to understand why and how different communities, actors, and policy agendas are being undermined in similar ways. Although these are difficult times, numerous solutions, actionable strategies, and dedicated communities are addressing these challenges—if we know where to look. We aim to highlight successful examples of tackling disinformation, bridging divides, and driving the desperately needed change. The report is organized as such: Navigating the Twin Storms of Inequality and Polarization Unveiling Strategic Division: The Power Play Behind Societal Divides Mapping Vulnerabilities: Factors Fueling Susceptibility to Strategic Division Tackling Division at its Core: Comprehensive Policy Interventions While the mechanisms and solutions to societal fragmentation are complex, there is comfort in the understanding that this challenge is not unique to any single nation or community but is shared. By shedding light on these issues, we can pave the way for solutions—together. As demonstrated in this report and the dialogues that preceded it, numerous individuals, communities, and initiatives are dedicated to innovating and meeting the challenges of our time, bridging divides with the conviction that our strength is amplified when we stand together. We hope this paper can contribute in some small way to these efforts.
Topic:: Inequality, Polarization, Fragmentation, and Rhetoric
Political Geography:: Global Focus

241. United Nations and World Bank Collaboration in Security and Justice Sectors: Linkages to Development

Author:: Sarah Cliffe, Betty N. Wainaina, and Natacha Meden
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: The links between security and development cannot be said enough. Effective and accountable security and justice institutions are essential to anchor peace and accelerate development but only if these institutions are people-centered, inclusive, accountable, and based on respect for human rights and the rule of law. Over 600 million people are living in countries that are considered politically estranged today. Many of these countries have faced and continue to face security challenges that have been significant drivers of grievance and contestation. Addressing governance challenges in the security and justice sectors in such circumstances is critical at a moment when all the remaining United Nations (UN) multidimensional peacekeeping operations have been requested to initiate or intensify transition planning. These transitions are taking place in countries and regions where the nature of violence and conflict is changing—becoming more protracted, involving transnational non-state armed actors, amid geo-political contestations and proxy wars. This study highlights that despite the long history of UN and World Bank engagement in the security and justice sectors, there has not been much strategic collaboration. Indeed, while there have been a few very compelling examples of joint work such as public expenditure reviews in the security and justice sectors in Liberia or Somalia, joint diagnostics and knowledge products as well as disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) operations in a few countries, or strategically sequenced mutually reinforcing interventions for example in the case of The Gambia, these instances are the exception rather than the norm. The study finds that there is a lot more that can be done to promote a more systematic and strategic partnership between the UN and the World Bank in security and justice sector engagements. This could range from information sharing, joint analysis where necessary, reinforcing each other’s messaging, and the coordination and harmonization of efforts to leverage respective convening platforms and relationships. Strengthening this work is a challenge that would require engagement from the most senior UN and World Bank leadership as it would involve a cultural transformation and fresh understanding of organizational and staff incentives. Included in this report are eight joint and individual recommendations ranging from the cultural or strategic, to the more technical for policymakers across both multilateral institutions to implement and bring into their organizations.
Topic:: Security, Development, United Nations, World Bank, and Justice
Political Geography:: Global Focus

242. Report of the Country Visit to Czechia of the Pathfinders for Peaceful, Just and Inclusive Societies

Author:: Center on International Cooperation
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: On July 23–24, 2024, a delegation from the Center on International Cooperation (CIC) at New York University, serving as the secretariat for the Pathfinders for Peaceful, Just and Inclusive Societies, participated in a country visit to Prague, Czechia. The visit was initiated by an invitation from the government of the Czech Republic in their capacity as co-chair of the Pathfinders Alliance Against Inequality and Exclusion. The delegation included Mr. Fernando Marani, Program Director, Inequality and Exclusion, and Mr. Nate Edwards, Program Associate, Justice for All. The primary objectives of the visit were to identify good practices and support Czechia’s priorities related to the implementation of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 16+ and explore inclusive policy making approaches to empower the voice of marginalized and vulnerable groups.
Topic:: Development, Sustainable Development Goals, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Europe and Czechia

243. Bridging the Gap: Accelerating Technology Adoption for Sustainable Food Production

Author:: The Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Emerging AgTech innovations have the potential to radically improve the sustainability, profitability, and accessibility of US-produced food. Rapid adoption of agricultural technological (AgTech) innovation is required to meet the future needs of a safe and sustainable US agricultural system that generates more food despite a confluence of obstacles jeopardizing agricultural productivity, while establishing consumer trust to ensure food innovation is accepted by society. With climate change and growing populations putting increasing pressure on our food systems to produce, farmers and their supply chain partners must find a way to rise to food production challenges through the rapid adoption of technology and scientific innovation. However, a recent history of AgTech innovations that failed to achieve widespread consumer acceptance underscores the importance of consumer buy-in for technical innovation in agricultural production. We need to rebuild consumer trust of new technology in food production, streamline and coalesce processes that expedite innovation, and ensure new innovation is accessible and profitable for growers. Based on a June 2023 roundtable, the second in a series of regular convenings, the white paper "Bridging the Gap: Accelerating Technology Adoption for Sustainable Food Production" explores the current development, challenges, and potential of emerging AgTech innovations, and concludes with action recommendations designed to remove barriers and expedite the next generation of AgTech integration in US food production.
Topic:: Agriculture, Science and Technology, Food Security, Sustainability, and Productivity
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

244. A Political Economy of Zawiya: Armed Groups and Society in a Western Libyan City

Author:: Wolfram Lacher
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: Since 2015, the coastal city of Zawiya has witnessed endemic violence, but never an all-out war between its main forces. Due to this, the city has become emblematic of Libya’s power struggles. Despite its significance, however, no in-depth studies exist on its armed groups and their evolution. A Political Economy of Zawiya: Armed Groups and Society in a Western Libyan City—a new report from the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment In North Africa (SANA) project—seeks explanations to this puzzle in the economic interests of armed groups and their varying relations with local society, and shows how Zawiya’s armed groups gradually came to take on a particularly abusive and predatory character.
Topic:: Security, Political Economy, Armed Forces, and Society
Political Geography:: Libya, North Africa, and Zawiya

245. Persistent Perils: Illicit MANPADS in the MENA Region

Author:: Matt Schroeder
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: Since 1970, armed groups have hit dozens of civilian aircraft with man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS), killing more than 1,000 civilians. The international community has taken numerous steps to reduce illicit proliferation, but armed groups in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region continue to acquire and use these systems. Persistent Perils: Illicit MANPADS in the MENA Region—a new Report from the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment In North Africa (SANA) project—provides an in-depth analysis of the proliferation of MANPADS in North Africa and the Middle East from 2015–23. Drawing on imagery and data collected since 2015 to identify the type, model, generation, and country of design/manufacture of illicit MANPADS in the region, the Report assesses the implications of recent proliferation patterns for regional security and international norms and agreements.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Armed Forces, Weapons, Trafficking, and MANPADS
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

246. Realities, Challenges, and Opportunities: The Arms Trade Treaty in the Indo-Pacific region

Author:: Andrea Edoardo Varisco, Manon Blancafort, Yulia Yarina, and David Atwood
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: The Indo-Pacific region, in all its vastness and diversity, presents many international security challenges. It is also a region with, thus far, limited engagement with the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT). Only 11 Indo-Pacific countries are currently states parties to the ATT, and nine states from the region have signed the Treaty but not yet ratified it. Realities, Challenges, and Opportunities: The Arms Trade Treaty in the Indo-Pacific Region—a new Report from the Small Arms Survey's project on the ATT in the Indo-Pacific region—provides in-depth analysis of the differing attitudes to the ATT as well as obstacles that hinder universalization and compliance in the region. Additionally, the Report outlines opportunities for stakeholders to change the dynamic of engagement with the ATT in this critical geostrategic region for major global politics.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Illegal Trade, and Arms Trade Treaty (ATT)
Political Geography:: Indo-Pacific

247. Global Terrorism Index 2024

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: This is the eleventh edition of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI), which provides a comprehensive summary of the key global trends and patterns in terrorism since 2012. The GTI report is produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), using data from Dragonfly’s TerrorismTracker database and other sources. In 2023, deaths from terrorism increased by 22 per cent to 8,352 deaths and are now at their highest level since 2017, although they remain 23 per cent lower than at their peak in 2015. Excluding the October 7th Hamas attack, deaths would have still been up by five per cent. Whilst the number of deaths increased, the number of incidents fell, with total attacks dropping by 22 per cent to 3,350 in 2023. Pakistan recorded the most incidents of any country, with 490 attacks recorded. The rise in deaths but fall in number of incidents shows how terrorism is becoming more concentrated and more lethal. The number of countries recording a death from terrorism fell to 41, considerably lower than the peak of 57 countries recorded in 2015 and the 44 recorded in 2022.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Peace, Organized Crime, Countering Violent Extremism, and October 7
Political Geography:: Sahel and Global Focus

248. Business & Peace Report 2024

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: This report examines the relationship between a country's economic performance and its level of peacefulness. The key finding is that peace serves as a reliable predictor of a country's future macro-economic trajectory, creating a business environment that provides superior returns to global averages. This represents a valuable insight for informing strategic investment decisions and offering a multitude of applications for businesses and fund managers, including in the design of financial investment products. For corporations it can help to guide investment decisions into markets with lower risk and stronger growth potential.
Topic:: Economics, Business, Macroeconomics, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

249. Halo, Positive Peace and Systems Thinking 2024: Advancing a Systems-Based Approach to Understanding and Building Peace

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) is dedicated to advancing the understanding of the operations of societal systems. To this end, this report brings together research conducted by IEP over the last decade and includes two conceptual approaches that are distinct but highly compatible: Positive Peace and Halo. These two concepts guide the organisation’s research, mission, and theory of social change. In addition, the report covers other related work including attempts to measure national intent, predict future substantial declines in peace, and to measure societal shocks and resilience in relation to the ecology.
Topic:: Economics, Peace, Resilience, and Systems Thinking
Political Geography:: Global Focus

250. Positive Peace Report 2024

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: Peace is more than the absence of violence. Positive Peace describes the attitudes, institutions and structures that create and sustain peaceful societies. It is conceptually related to many aspects of social development and can be used in multiple contexts. In addition to being a transformative concept, it is also a social good. When combined with systems thinking Positive Peace is a transformational concept as it envisages new ways of understanding how societies operate and how to develop thriving communities. Toward this end, the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) developed the Positive Peace Index (PPI), a statistically derived measure of the factors that create flourishing societies, which is based on eight Pillars of Positive Peace. The concept of Positive Peace as well as general PPI results, including rankings and changes over time, are the focus of this report.
Topic:: Economics, Sustainability, Resilience, and Positive Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

251. Mexico Peace Index 2024

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: This is the 11th edition of the Mexico Peace Index (MPI), produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP). It provides a comprehensive measure of peacefulness in Mexico, including trends, analysis, and estimates of the economic impact of violence. The MPI is based on the Global Peace Index, the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness, produced by IEP every year since 2007. The MPI consists of 12 sub-indicators aggregated into five major indicators. Mexico’s peacefulness improved by 1.4 percent in 2023. This was the fourth straight year of improvement, following four consecutive years of deteriorations. However, more states deteriorated than improved, with 15 states improving and 17 deteriorating.
Topic:: Economics, Violence, Peace, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, and Mexico

252. Global Peace Index 2024

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: This is the 18th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness, covering 99.7 per cent of the world’s population. Produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. This report presents the most comprehensive data-driven analysis to-date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies. The GPI uses 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources and measures the state of peace across three domains: the level of Societal Safety and Security; the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict; and the degree of Militarisation. This year it introduces a new measure of global military capability that incorporates military sophistication, technology, and battle readiness into a single measure. The report finds that many of the conditions that precede major conflicts are higher than they have been since the end of the Second World War. There are currently 56 active conflicts, the most since the end of Second World War, and with fewer conflicts being resolved, either militarily or through peace agreements. The number of conflicts that ended in a decisive victory fell from 49 per cent in the 1970s to nine per cent in the 2010s, while conflicts that ended through peace agreements fell from 23 per cent to four per cent over the same period.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Peace, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

253. Multilateralism Index 2024

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: There are growing calls to transform the multilateral system, which is widely seen as being in crisis. Yet solving the crisis of multilateralism requires understanding what that crisis entails. What parts of the multilateral system are in crisis, and what parts are still functioning? Where is commitment to multilateralism flagging, and where does it remain strong? Where is multilateral action failing to translate into concrete results, and where is it delivering? Who is being left out of multilateral engagement, and who is being included? And what are the trends over time? To help answer these questions, the International Peace Institute (IPI) and the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) developed the Multilateralism Index. This 2024 edition of the Index assesses changes in international cooperation between 2013 and 2023 across five domains: Peace and Security, Human Rights, Climate Action, Public Health, and Trade. Each domain is evaluated across three dimensions: Participation, Performance, and Inclusivity
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Human Rights, Multilateralism, Peace, Trade, Public Health, and International Order
Political Geography:: Global Focus

254. China Maritime Report No. 42: Invasion Plans: Operation Causeway and Taiwan's Defense in World War II

Author:: Ian Easton
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:: During World War II, the United States and the Empire of Japan each developed plans and marshaled forces for a climactic battle over Taiwan. Both sides regarded the island as an area of strategic consequence. Code-named Operation CAUSEWAY, the American invasion of Taiwan would have been the largest amphibious campaign in the Pacific Theater and the largest sea-air-land engagement in world history. Strategists in Japan believed the attack was coming and designed a blueprint for the defense of Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands called SHO-GO(捷 2 号作戦, or “Operation Victory No. 2”), which envisioned a bloody campaign of annihilation. Japanese camouflage, concealment, and deception efforts in Taiwan were effective at hiding many capabilities from American intelligence. In recent years, Taiwanese military officers have drawn lessons from Taiwan’s wartime history to improve their defense plans. They highlight the need to stockpile, update beach defenses, mobilize whole-of-society support, expand underground bunker complexes, and prepare for a long fight and layered defense campaign. One important lesson of this history for the U.S. Navy and Joint Force is that deterrence worked before. It can work again. Under certain circumstances, the United States and Taiwan may be capable of preventing a PRC invasion of the island. But a tremendous amount of hard work will be needed to realize that goal. By revisiting the history of Taiwan-focused war plans, we may better assess current challenges and develop insights that could inform future strategic, operational, and tactical decisions.
Topic:: History, Military Affairs, Maritime, World War II, People's Liberation Army (PLA), Invasion, and Operation Causeway
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

255. China Maritime Report No. 41: One Force, Two Force, Red Force, Blue Force: PLA Navy Blue Force Development for Realistic Combat Training

Author:: J. Michael Dahm
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:: Since the mid-2010s, there has been a concerted effort to professionalize a PLAN “blue force” as an opposition force, or OPFOR, in maritime exercises and training. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) routinely refers to its blue forces as metaphorical “whetstones” used to sharpen the PLA for a future fight against enemies of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Efforts to develop a PLAN blue force appear to have accelerated over the past several years in response to Chairman Xi Jinping’s decade-long demand for more realistic combat training. This report examines recent developments in the PLAN’s blue force. It comprises four sections. Part one provides background on PLAN efforts to professionalize its maritime blue force. Part two describes the PLAN’s blue force training units. Part three examines companies producing equipment and virtual environments for China’s blue force units, while part four discusses current blue force capabilities. The report concludes with a summary of findings and implications for the United States, its allies, and partners.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Maritime, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Military Training
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

256. China Maritime Report No. 40: Onboard Political Control - The Ship Political Commissar in Chinese Merchant Shipping

Author:: Conor M. Kennedy
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:: Since the creation of the People’s Republic of China’s merchant fleet, the Chinese Communist Party has implemented a system of political control aboard oceangoing vessels through ship Party branches and ship political commissars. This report focuses on the ship political commissar, a Party representative assigned to oceangoing merchant ships, particularly within state-owned shipping enterprises, to carry out political and administrative work in the management of ship crews. Having peaked in authority and power during the Cultural Revolution, the ship political commissar position has evolved over the decades following economic reforms in the 1980s. Despite years of problematic implementation, the ship political commissar system is currently undergoing a revitalization in staterun shipping companies. The position has supporting roles to play in carrying out national tasking such as evacuations of overseas Chinese citizens. Most ship political commissars are former PLA officers. Chinese roll-on/roll-off ferry operators constitute a special case where the ship political commissar may have greater authority in the ship hierarchy and potentially a role in supporting PLA use of those vessels. This report focuses on the ship political commissar system over the last 20 years, providing a needed update on this understudied topic in the English-language literature.
Topic:: History, Political Parties, Shipping, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

257. China Maritime Report No. 39: A Hundred Men Wielding One Gun - Life, Duty, and Cultural Practices Aboard PLAN Submarines

Author:: Conor M. Kennedy
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:: Submarine performance is not just measured in technical terms, but also in how crews operate over time. As the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) increasingly deploys its submarine force beyond the near seas on long-distance combat readiness and training missions, studying the force’s human components benefits a broader understanding its overall effectiveness. This report explores work and living conditions, crew endurance, service culture, political requirements, and approaches to resolving human issues in the submarine force. An inherently dangerous and challenging profession, the submarine force has gradually developed numerous solutions to address various challenges to prevent non-combat attrition among crews. Life and duty in the “Dragon Palace,” both an internal joke and the overarching embodiment of PLAN submarine culture, reveals a professional community focused on secrecy, safety, and expertise that is working to enhance its human performance.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Navy, Submarines, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

258. China Maritime Report No. 38: PLAN Anti-Submarine Warfare Aircraft - Sensors, Weapons, and Operational Concepts

Author:: Eli Tirk and Daniel Salisbury
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:: The PLA Navy recognizes the importance of a robust anti-submarine warfare (ASW) system to counter adversaries seeking undersea asymmetric advantages, and its aviation component is a key part of that system. This report discusses the PLAN's efforts to improve its airborne ASW platforms and equipment and describes how PLAN-affiliated sources discuss the employment of those assets. The PLAN's significant buildup and growing employment of fixed-wing maritime patrol aircraft in recent years are key indicators of the importance it attaches to the airborne ASW mission set, as is its push to acquire improved sensors on both fixed and rotary wing ASW platforms. PLAN-affiliated authors show that its academic and operational components are coordinating to explore best practices and maximize the effectiveness of these assets across a wide array of ASW scenarios.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Navy, Submarines, People's Liberation Army (PLA), Warfare, and Aircraft
Political Geography:: China and Asia

259. China Maritime Report No. 37: Re-Engaging With the World: China's Military Diplomacy in 2023

Author:: Jie Gao and Kenneth W. Allen
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:: China’s military diplomacy plays a crucial role in advancing the nation's foreign policy objectives and safeguarding its strategic interests. This report highlights a diverse array of activities within military diplomacy, including senior-level meetings, joint military exercises, naval port calls, UN peacekeeping operations, and academic exchanges. Our findings reveal a significant—but incomplete—recovery in China's military diplomacy activities in 2023, following a period of reduced contacts with foreign militaries during the COVID-19 pandemic. Southeast Asia and Russia remain primary partners for China, with emerging strategic importance also seen in Africa, Oceania, and the Middle East. Overall, China's military diplomacy underscores its efforts to diversify partnerships and assert its global influence, emphasizing regional stability and international cooperation in pursuit of its diplomatic goals.
Topic:: International Cooperation, United Nations, Peacekeeping, COVID-19, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Military Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Asia, and Southeast Asia

260. China Maritime Report No. 36: China's T-AGOS: The Dongjian Class Ocean Surveillance Ship

Author:: Devin Thorne
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:: Since 2017, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has commissioned a new class of ocean surveillance vessel into its order of battle: the Type 927. Similar in design and function to the U.S. Navy’s Victorious and Impeccable class T-AGOS ships, the Type 927 was introduced to help remedy the PLAN’s longstanding weakness in anti-submarine warfare. The PLAN has likely built six Type 927 ships to date, most based for easy access to the South China Sea. In peacetime, these ships use their towed array sonar to collect acoustic data on foreign submarines and track their movements within and beyond the first island chain. In wartime, Type 927 vessels could contribute to PLAN anti-submarine warfare operations in support of a range of different maritime campaigns. However, their lack of self-defense capabilities would make them extremely vulnerable to attack.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Navy, Maritime, Surveillance, Submarines, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

261. China Maritime Report No. 35: Beyond Chinese Ferry Tales: The Rise of Deck Cargo Ships in China's Military Activities, 2023

Author:: J. Michael Dahm
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:: This report provides a comprehensive assessment of Chinese civilian shipping support to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), examining civil maritime-military activities in 2023. As of 2023 and probably through at least 2030, the PLA’s reserve fleet of civilian ships is probably unable to provide the amphibious landing capabilities or the over-the-shore logistics in austere or challenging environments necessary to support a major cross-strait invasion of Taiwan. However, 2023 activity has demonstrated significant progress toward that end. In addition to the extensive use of civilian ferries, this report identifies the first use of large deck cargo ships to support PLA exercises. While not as capable as large, ocean-going ferries, China’s civil fleet boasts dozens of large deck cargo ships and may provide the PLA with the lift capacity necessary to eventually support a large crossstrait operation. This report also discusses other civil maritime-military activities including “surge lift events,” coordination and synchronization of multi-theater events, floating causeway developments, and the dedicated use of civilian ships for intra-theater military logistics.
Topic:: Maritime, Shipping, Logistics, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

262. China Maritime Report No. 34: PLAN Submarine Training in the "New Era"

Author:: Christopher Sharman and Terry Hess
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:: Since 2018, there have been significant changes to People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) submarine force training, and these changes have been driven by important revisions to strategic guidance and subsequent directives that focused PLA efforts to enhance its capabilities to operate in the maritime domain. While this guidance is applicable to all services, improving PLAN submarine force capabilities appears to have been of particular interest to senior Chinese leadership. This guidance expanded the PLA’s maritime domain requirements, which demanded that China’s submarine force improve its capabilities to operate independently or along with other PLAN assets at greater distances from coast and in the far seas. This has resulted in submarine training that is more realistic, rigorous, and standardized across the fleet. Though stressful on submarine equipment and crews, these changes to training may ultimately yield a more combat-capable submarine fleet operating throughout the western Pacific.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Navy, Maritime, Submarines, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Military Training
Political Geography:: China and Asia

263. Senegal’s Gas-to-Power Ambitions: Securing Scale and Sustainability

Author:: Papa Daouda Diene, Thomas Scurfield, Aaron Sayne, and Jessica Obeid
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Senegal will benefit from generating electricity from some of its gas, but authorities should carefully consider the scale of the country’s “gas-to-power” ambitions and how they relate to its renewable energy plans. This is a pivotal moment for achieving the government’s energy and sustainable development objectives. Recent plans to develop over 3 gigawatts (GW) of gas-to-power capacity by 2050 may face obstacles. Senegal may not be able to extract enough gas to feed the power plants; it may also struggle to raise sufficient funds (at least USD 2.2 billion) to build the necessary infrastructure. A more balanced energy mix, with a stronger emphasis on renewables alongside gas, offers Senegal a more secure pathway, but necessitates a cohesive long-term strategy and international support. Senegal’s participation in a Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) has led to increased medium-term renewable power generation goals—possibly to around 1 GW by 2030. To reach them, Senegal’s development partners must deliver the promised financial and technical support. If Senegal realizes only those plans that are published, gas will comprise 75 percent of installed capacity in the long term. The absence of a long-term plan for renewables could lock the country into this large role for gas, inhibiting the intended catalytic effect of the JETP and preventing the government from fully leveraging the country’s solar and wind potential. A more transparent and inclusive approach will help Senegal’s government to refine and implement its energy plans, helping to manage public expectations, foster public trust and increase credibility with investors.
Topic:: Gas, Fossil Fuels, Sustainability, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Africa and Senegal

264. Tax Avoidance, Tax Evasion and Trade Misinvoicing: Risks to Senegal’s Mining Sector

Author:: William Davis
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Tax evasion, trade misinvoicing and multinational companies’ efforts to avoid tax are important risks in the extractive sector, especially in developing countries, including Senegal. Senegal’s extractive governance arrangements are strong in many areas, including in preventing multinational tax avoidance. However, there is cause for concern in two areas: misinvoicing of international trade (imports and exports), and cost inflation by subcontractors in the extractive industries. Quantitative estimates of trade misinvoicing suggest the former is a significant problem for Senegal (including for its mining sector), which could lead to the loss of 1–3 percent of the country’s tax revenues. Authorities in Senegal should address such risks, especially before the country begins large-scale oil and gas production. Unless they do so, revenues from the country’s hydrocarbon resources will be at risk. Measures that Senegal can take include strengthening the tax authorities—especially customs and auditing accounts of extractive industry suppliers.
Topic:: Corruption, Government, Gas, Mining, Minerals, Tax Evasion, and Public Finance
Political Geography:: Africa and Senegal

265. Behind the Schemes: Anticorruption Gaps in Mining Sector Certifications

Author:: Susannah Fitzgerald, Robert Pitman, Matthieu Salomon, and Phesheya Nxumalo
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Decisionmakers are increasingly looking to certification schemes to provide information on the sustainability of mining operations, yet these schemes have significant room for improvement regarding how they address corruption in their standards. The report assesses the content of the performance standards used by the Aluminium Stewardship Initiative (ASI), the International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM), the Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance (IRMA), The Copper Mark, and Towards Sustainable Mining (TSM). Schemes address some topics, such as revenue and payments and anticorruption procedures, relatively well; this may reflect the extent to which legislation and regulations address these topics. Schemes’ standards less frequently covered other issues, such as beneficial ownership and allegations of corruption. Many schemes, and the mining companies that use them, are missing an opportunity to assess the implementation of corporate-level anticorruption policies in mine-site assessments. The quality of certification schemes’ governance and assurance processes is essential to their effectiveness, yet many fall short of best practice. This undermines their credibility. Key governance challenges include the unbalanced representation of different interests within schemes and the risk of conflicts of interest in the auditing process. Decisionmakers risk becoming overreliant on certification schemes as indicators of responsible business conduct, which may be facilitated in part by industry influence over policymaking processes. Certification schemes are not a replacement for ongoing, robust due diligence into the environmental, social, and governance impacts of mining operations, including corruption, and the design and enforcement of robust regulatory frameworks. In a shifting standards landscape where there are efforts to both consolidate and review existing certification schemes, and a moment where the risk of corruption is heightened by growing demand for transition minerals, governments, mining companies, and certification schemes themselves must do more to address the topic of corruption. To do so effectively, they should focus their attention on solutions that will have the most impact in addressing this issue.
Topic:: Corruption, Environment, Governance, Accountability, Mining, Transparency, and Minerals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

266. The Newest Allies: Finland and Sweden in NATO

Author:: Tony Lawrence, Tomas Jermalavicius, and Jan Hyllander
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: Sweden’s flag was raised at NATO headquarters at midday on 11 March 2024, ceremonially marking one of the most surprising outcomes of Russia’s war in Ukraine. In the face of Russia’s aggression and the risks it presented to their own security, Finland, which joined NATO in April 2023, and Sweden had abandoned decades-long policies of neutrality and non-alignment to become the Alliance’s 31st and 32nd member states. Our report examines the consequences of these changes, largely from the perspective of the defence of the Baltic states. Although Finland had developed armed forces to cope independently with any military aggression, the brutality of Russia’s full-scale attack on Ukraine led to a rapid and substantial shift in public opinion in favour of NATO membership, which was quickly embraced by the leadership. Public opinion shifted rapidly in Sweden too, but the debate there was also heavily influenced by Finland’s inescapable move towards the Alliance, which essentially undercut the logic of Sweden’s continued non-alignment. The two countries submitted their applications to join NATO on the same day in May 2022. As Allies, Finland and Sweden will bring great benefits to the security of the Nordic-Baltic region. Politically, their accession will strengthen NATO, including by creating a large bloc of states in northern Europe whose memberships of security organisations are (mostly) aligned and who demonstrate broadly similar security thinking. At the operational level, their accession will plug a large hole in NATO territory, reducing the isolation and vulnerability of the Baltic states and allowing military commanders many more options for preparing for and dealing with a possible conflict with Russia. At the tactical level, they add modern, capable armed forces to NATO’s inventory. Nonetheless, their accession is not without challenges and risks. The most difficult practical challenge for both countries will likely be developing deployable ground forces to meet the requirements of NATO membership. However, perhaps the more difficult challenges related to accession will be mental and cultural. For Finland, these relate to adjusting an independent, highly self-reliant defence model, held in great regard by both the leadership and population, to meet the needs of collective defence; and to the requirement to bolster Allied cohesion by speaking more openly about threats to the Allies’ common security interests, in particular, Russia. For Sweden, neutrality has been fostered not only as a defining element of its self-identity as a distinctive international actor, but also as a necessary vehicle for the development of a unique democracy and welfare state. These ideas are deep-seated and Sweden’s mental transition to Allied status may be difficult and lengthy. Among the risks is that the addition of two strong Allies will encourage other Allies or their publics to believe that deterrence and defence in the Nordic-Baltic region is complete, needing no further attention. A second is that the low-key approach Finland and Sweden expect to take to their membership, at least in the years immediately following accession, may mean that the benefits of their joining will be only partly realised. It would be a missed opportunity, for example, if Sweden declined to take a leadership role in the Nordic-Baltic region. There is also a risk that Finland and Sweden’s commitment to a strong Nordic regional identity, while useful for promoting practical security and defence cooperation, may be disadvantageous to Baltic security if its pull were to result in the diminished engagement of the two countries in the Baltic region. The tension between the two countries northern and Baltic identities has already been apparent in a discussion concerning their place in NATO’s operational-level command structure. Finally, there is a risk that imprecise talk about ‘strategic depth’ that has sometimes been part of the discussion about the benefits that Finland and Sweden bring to NATO may suggest that other parts of Allied territory are somehow less important. This would be unhelpful to coherent deterrence by denial on the north-east flank. While Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO greatly benefits the security and defence of the Baltic states, it is important that such risks and challenges are recognised, in order that they can be mitigated. We make several recommendations to Finland and Sweden as they continue their integration into the Alliance.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Alliance, and Enlargement
Political Geography:: Russia, Finland, Sweden, Nordic Nations, and Baltic States

267. An Edifying Tale of Keeping the Lights On: Societal Resilience in an Energy Crisis – the Case of Estonia

Author:: Tomas Jermalavicius, Dmitri Teperik, and Karolin Martinson
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: In 2021–23, Europe experienced a major energy shock due to a number of significant factors in the energy market. As a result of Russia’s strategy to take advantage of Europe’s dependency on its energy supply and coerce the EU into acquiescence to Russia’s geopolitical demands, the most important course-changing trigger has been the Russian war against Ukraine. A raft of urgent policy measures passed at the EU and national levels, quick adaptation of the consumers to the price signals, the availability of LNG from the US, suppressed demand in China, and a mild winter meant that a full-scale disaster was averted. However, the previous crisis being less severe than anticipated does not mean the next one will be less challenging. Estonian society’s resilience to future energy crises may determine not only the country’s internal political dynamics but also its relations with key partners, its reputation in the EU, and even the country’s long-term geopolitical prospects. In order to understand how well-prepared Estonian society is for such future crises, this study identifies and analyses the key public narratives that emerged during the 2021–23 energy crisis and investigates how they reflected on Estonian society’s perceptions and actions. The narrative analysis is complemented by survey data, which indicates how the Estonian public viewed various aspects of the crisis and its resolution, as well as the extent to which public sentiment echoes or runs counter to the identified narratives. The study highlights several key shortcomings in Estonian society’s resilience capabilities. Firstly, the lack of constructive responsiveness to warnings about plausible severe risks (i.e., power cuts) and low scores on preparedness for future energy crises show that the Estonian society does not have a mindset of crisis preparedness. Secondly, society’s lack of confidence in the government’s ability to successfully navigate such crises has the potential to undermine the relationship of trust and cooperation in similar episodes in the future. Another breakdown in resilience in the response to the energy crisis was related to the failure to maintain a just and equal distribution of risk, vulnerability, and cost. As the narrative related to the profits of the energy companies—especially state-owned ones—shows, the sense of unfair distribution of costs and benefits was pervasive and highly antagonising. As the survey showed, a responsible and competent media, effective government, and an impartial expert community were the most trusted sources of information with respect to coping with the energy crisis. These actors will have to play an important role in rebuilding the confidence lost during the energy crisis, shaping the narratives that inspire steadfast action for forging a better future for energy and climate security, and improving Estonia’s resilience.
Topic:: Crisis Management, Resilience, and Energy Security
Political Geography:: Europe and Estonia

268. The Practice, Promise and Peril of EU Lawfare

Author:: Steven Blockmans
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: Power generates law and its interpretation, irrespective of whether it serves the cause of international justice. Despite its many shortcomings, the rules-based international order (RBIO) tries to advance that cause. But as a concept, the RBIO is now being rejected by China, Russia and parts of the so-called “Global South” for what they claim is the Western hegemonism and liberal values that underpin it. The fact that these countries have voluntarily signed up to the international covenants that enshrine the legal doctrines to strengthen the sovereign rights of weaker countries, especially in the context of economic relations, makes it hard to sympathise with the argument that the RBIO should be replaced by another concept, especially one that is advanced by autocracies. The RBIO has been partially shaped by the European Union (EU), a community of law that encodes the aspiration of “good global governance” in its constitutional DNA. With the waning “Brussels effect”—the soft power of EU law in shaping international rules and standards, the EU should consider how to instrumentalise the law to protect and promote its foreign policy interests, first and foremost the protection and promotion of the RBIO. This report unpacks the notion of “lawfare” and conducts a comparative analysis of such practices by the US, China, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and others to assess the promise and peril of the EU using the power of the law to its strategic advantage.
Topic:: International Law, Sanctions, European Union, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, and United States of America

269. China’s and Russia’s Aggressive Foreign Policies: Historical Legacy or Geopolitical Ambitions?

Author:: Ivan Ulises Klyszcz, Che-chuan Lee, and James Sherr
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: Beijing and Moscow are among the states across the world pursuing aggressive foreign policies, including towards their neighbours. Beyond mere threats, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine demonstrated that deterrence could fail, with catastrophic consequences. How is Russia’s war against Ukraine perceived in Taiwan and in the wider Indo-Pacific region? What are the long-standing strategic goals of the Kremlin and the CCP, and what role do Ukraine and Taiwan play in them? International security must guard against new challenges such as hybrid warfare but also prevent the foremost international crime: wars of aggression. Aggressive foreign policies are not the same as wars of aggression, but they are closely linked, as they share a hostile outlook to the status quo. Deciphering the drivers of aggressive state behaviour—between historical legacies and geopolitical ambitions—will help us better prepare against new threats from rival states. China’s aggressive foreign policy seeks to alter the cross-Strait status quo and achieve “national reunification”. While these ambitions are persistent, they also reflect an evolving understanding of Taiwan’s circumstances. Indeed, Beijing has demonstrated both continuity and change in its approach to cross-strait relations, simultaneously upholding the ‘One China Principle’ and pursuing a hybrid warfare strategy to undermine Taipei’s authority. The recent juncture was the 2016 election of President Tsai Ing-wen from the Democratic and Progressive Party (DPP). From early on, Beijing accused the DPP of pursuing Taiwan’s formal independence from China, followed by a cold peace to a more aggressive policy from Beijing. Many of these techniques draw from Beijing’s decades of confrontation with Taipei, and cover a range of political positions, public relations efforts, and ‘grey zone’ tactics. Given the centrality of cross-strait relations for international security, understanding these shifts is critical for adapting to broader shifts in the Indo-Pacific region. Russia’s aggressive foreign policy draws from entrenched adversarial perspectives about the West, as well as recent political developments inside the Kremlin. Despite the Soviet collapse and the transition to Capitalism, Moscow’s security elites still conceive international security through the idea of the ‘correlation of forces’, a Soviet-era concept to describe international relations as a sum-total of society. This wide understanding goes beyond the idea of the ‘balance of power’ by incorporating other dimensions of international power, such as the economy, the state of societies and even psychological factors. Moreover, Moscow never abandoned a sense of entitlement towards the countries that fall within what the Kremlin calls its “near abroad” and has only evolved in how it pursues and articulates this entitlement. Russia’s enduring interests also point to Europe, Ukraine, and China, as well as the broader international order. Putting the aggressive foreign policy of China and Russia side-by-side will enrich the analytical outlook of those engaged in studying these two countries’ foreign policies and the broader regions they are in. These are large topics, and the two chapters of this report offer a concise though comprehensive look that will be of interest to policymakers, analysts, and anybody concerned with the security challenges of today.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, Taiwan, and Indo-Pacific

270. Japan, NATO, and the Diversification of Security Partnerships

Author:: Elena Atanassova-Cornelis, Takuya Matsuda, Bart Gaens, and Nele Loorents
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: The US-led military alliances remain an integral part of the defence and deterrence strategies of countries in the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic regions. Whereas the European security architecture is centred on a multilateral alliance, that is, NATO, the Asian security order is rooted in the hub-and-spokes system – the network of US-led bilateral alliances with key partners in Asia, such as Japan. Bringing in experts from Europe and Japan, this report examines the key shifts in the allies’ threat perceptions and strategic thinking on policy responses. It also explores the rise of informal security alignments designed to address both traditional and hybrid challenges and exemplified by the minilateral-type security cooperation pursued by Japan. Finally, the report zooms in on the growing interlinkages between security in the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic regions, as evidenced by the deepened security ties between like-minded partners. The report argues that the Russian invasion of Ukraine should be seen as a critical juncture for alliance politics. Military alliances are now increasingly being operationalised to enhance military readiness and effectively generate combat power in case of a contingency. The US-Japan alliance, the report finds, should be perceived as a manifestation of some of the broad and enduring changes in the role of alliance politics in international security, which are observable both in the Western Pacific and Europe. While the US-led alliance remains a key pillar of the security and defence policies of the ‘junior’ allies, notably Japan, the report highlights the allies’ uncertainties about the sustainability of the American security commitments, both in the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic region. Assessing Japan’s updated conceptualisation of security in the context of the Ukraine war and the rise of hybrid threats, the report detects a sense of urgency in Tokyo to develop a diverse set of capabilities and expand security partnerships. Australia, India, and the Republic of Korea remain a priority in terms of alignment cooperation. At the same time, the changing nature of security challenges is steadily raising the importance of cooperation with geographically distant partners, as seen in Tokyo’s evolving security partnership with the EU and NATO. Japan’s strategic partnership diplomacy exemplifies a broader trend of strategic diversification. Tokyo has been successful in utilising alignment policy to promote an interconnected network and accomplish issue-based, functional cooperation in various areas. From NATO’s perspective, addressing hybrid challenges requires collaboration with various actors, including geographically distant players. Minilateral and multilateral formats involving a small group of like-minded countries can provide NATO with the opportunity to work closely with Japan and other Indo-Pacific partners on specific issues, such as cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns.
Topic:: Security, NATO, European Union, Resilience, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Europe, South Korea, and United States of America

271. New Russian Immigration to the EU: The Case of the Baltic States, Finland, Germany & Poland

Author:: Igor Gretskiy
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: The political atmosphere in Russia, as well as the September 2022 mobilisation call for military service, made thousands of Russians leave their home country. Although a vast majority of them have settled in post-Soviet countries, a noticeable portion has also taken up residence in EU countries. A recent couple of years have seen significant expert interest in new Russian immigration, so there is no shortage of publications on the phenomenon. However, many of these analyses suffer from substantial flaws. This report aims to provide a better understanding of new Russian immigration to the EU, as well as this group’s prevailing views on the most sensitive political issues. It concludes that the scale of emigration from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine is often overstated. It seems appropriate to distinguish between two waves of new Russian immigration to the EU. The spring wave was apparently more substantial in number and included a higher proportion of political and civil activists, academics, and IT professionals. In contrast, the autumn wave was less “politicised” as many of those leaving Russia were not necessarily opposed to Putin or his war but were primarily motivated by the fear of conscription and the prospect of being sent to the front line. After moving abroad, interest in Russia-related political activities among new Russian immigrants, even seasoned activists, tends to fade. Few remain engaged in political endeavours, instead focusing more on adapting to new realities. Their interactions with associations of Russian migrants from the previous “post-Crimean wave” are sporadic. When it comes to issues related to the politics of EU countries, new Russian immigrants often have a Russia-centric perspective on most of them. This is especially true regarding visa and travel sanctions against Russia. Immigrants remain almost impervious to the argument that for the governments of countries bordering Russia, the absolute priority is their national security and domestic public order, not the transformation of the Russian political regime at any cost. There were several quite sensitive topics that often provoked mixed feelings and even negative emotions among the respondents. The most challenging and almost taboo subject in Russian immigrant communities was donations to support the Ukrainian army. Along with Russian influencers and opposition politicians, most new Russian immigrants are reluctant to get involved in the Russia-Ukraine war, viewing it as not their concern. They largely attribute Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the Russian government and state-owned media, seeing the Russian population merely as “victims of propaganda” and absolving “average Russians” of responsibility for the war. New Russian émigrés preserve regular contacts with relatives and friends in their homeland but tend to avoid discussing politically charged topics, particularly those related to Ukraine. It appears that they have virtually no impact on the perception of the Russia-Ukraine war and the political attitudes of those who stayed in Russia, and this divide between the two groups is likely to endure. Many admitted that by staying abroad, they are losing touch with developments in Russia. Moreover, most new Russian immigrants see no future for themselves or their children in Russia and are unlikely to return there. A few might consider a temporary return if a trusted leader came to power, but generally, they prefer to live in a free, democratic Russia without taking risks or acting as change agents. Hence, when developing a strategy regarding new Russian immigrants, it is essential to primarily consider the EU’s own security considerations rather than the imagined capabilities of these immigrants. It is crucial to avoid letting the wish for significant socio-political change in Russia cloud objective analysis. In the foreseeable future, Russia will continue to pose serious security threats to Europe, while, as of now, there is no serious indication that new Russian immigration could emerge as a politically influential force back home anytime soon.
Topic:: Security, Diaspora, Immigration, Sanctions, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Finland, Poland, Lithuania, Germany, Estonia, Latvia, and Baltic States

272. Russia and China in Central Asia: Potential For Direct Competition

Author:: Maximilian Hess
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:: China is now undisputedly the leading economic partner for the Central Asia region, with trade and investment continuing to increase despite Beijing’s economic slowdown. Russia is still the dominant political partner for the region, but its influence and ability to strong-arm Central Asian states has been significantly dented by the impact of Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Central Asian states are now able in tacitly criticize Putin’s actions without significant cost and some have taken advantage of the negative impacts of Russia’s international isolation and sanctions to strike beneficial deals, in particular Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Moscow remains content in its position, knowing that the lack of democracy in the region and dominance of elite networks in business and politics mean that regional states are still willing to turn to Moscow for political support, as witnessed in the Kyrgyz Republic in particular since President Japarov came to power in 2020. Tensions between Beijing and Russia have failed to emerge, at least publicly, although if the current trends continue the potential for direct competition may increase.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Strategic Competition, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Central Asia, and Asia

273. China, Russia, and Power Transition in Central Asia

Author:: Robert E. Hamilton
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:: Since the days of Thucydides, scholars have written about—and policymakers have wrestled with—the dangers of power transition, which occurs when a rising power challenges the previously dominant power in a system. In the 5th Century BCE, this dynamic led to decades of war between alliance systems led by Sparta and Athens. Though Sparta eventually defeated Athens in the Peloponnesian War, the real winner was the Persian Empire, which snatched up territory from the exhausted states of the Hellenic system after the war ended. Much scholarship on the so-called Thucydides Trap focuses on the United States and China, asking if the powers two can negotiate the latter’s rise without conflict. But there is another, more acute power transition underway: that between Russia and China in Central Asia. In the last decade, and especially since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, Russia’s power and legitimacy in Central Asia has declined in absolute terms. The erosion of Russian power relative to that of China, however, is more important than the decline in Moscow’s absolute power. Power transitions are notoriously hard to navigate and can strain even amicable relationships, turning erstwhile partners into competitors, or worse. The China-Russia partnership is a relatively recent phenomenon after centuries of mostly competitive relations. This means that Beijing and Moscow do not have a reservoir of goodwill built over decades to draw on as they navigate the erosion of Russian power in a region critically important to both. While this power transition is unlikely to lead to outright war between China and Russia over Central Asia, it is already leading to competition between the two, especially in the economic realm. Competition between Beijing and Moscow is made both more likely and more consequential by several unique features of the region. First, it is geographically contiguous to both. Next, both have high-order political, economic, and security interests at stake there. Finally, the US footprint in the region is light, removing a strong incentive for Chinese-Russian cooperation there. The United States is in many ways the binding agent between China and Russia: Where it is present, their shared resistance to Washington’s influence gives them a focal point for cooperation. Where the United States is absent—as it is in Central Asia, at least with respect to China and Russia—that focal point is removed. This report first analyzes Chinese and Russian influence and interests in Central Asia. It then examines how each pursues its political, military, and economic goals in the region. It concludes with an analysis of how and where their interests are most convergent and divergent and the implications for their overall relationship. If Beijing and Moscow can negotiate their power transition in Central Asia and maintain their overall partnership, this implies that the partnership is deep and durable. But it is Central Asia, more than anywhere else in the world, that will test Chinese-Russian ties.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, Strategic Interests, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Central Asia

274. Turning Point or Dead End? Challenging the Kremlin’s Narrative of Stability in Wartime

Author:: András Tóth-Czifra
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:: The Russian government expects 2024 to be a turning point in the country’s war against Ukraine. For this expectation to become reality, the Kremlin is using means of reflexive control: It projects an image of a country that has weathered Western sanctions, ramped up its economic performance, and united a society behind its leader and his goals. This strategy was confirmed by personnel changes executed after Vladimir Putin’s inauguration for a fifth presidential term. The Kremlin’s message masks the costly trade-offs that the Kremlin has created by choosing to pursue a long and costly war with an economic and political system that operates in increasingly tight corners. The past months have seen several destabilizing domestic events in Russia, highlighting the risks of the widespread securitization of public politics, diversion of resources from domestic policy targets to the war, and passiveness of Russian society’s support for the Kremlin’s current policies. The ongoing restructuring of Russia’s domestic economy and economic elite, structural weaknesses created by a military-production based economic growth model, threat of the eventual need for social or military mobilization, and the authorities’ relentless tightening of the limits of public politics and acceptable public behavior represent growing risks for a governance whose sole organizing principle is the ongoing war.
Topic:: Sanctions, Economy, Elites, Russia-Ukraine War, and Regime Durability
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Ukraine

275. Russian Strategic Culture and the War in Ukraine

Author:: Denys Yurchenko
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:: The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, shocked the world. Currently, the Russian-Ukrainian war is the biggest European war since the end of World War II.[1] The full-scale invasion was a continuation of unlawful actions in 2014 when Russia seized and temporarily occupied Crimea. Russia’s actions sparked heated debates between realists and liberals while every school of international relations tried to explain why Russia used force to change the internationally recognized borders of its neighbor—Ukraine. In September 2014, Professor John Mearsheimer published the article Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault.[2] His work tried to explain the causes of conflict from an offensive realism point of view. Mearsheimer defined the core idea of offensive realism in The Tragedy of Great Power Politics.[3] It is as follows: States—especially great powers—are always thinking about how to survive because there is no supranational institution to protect them. In other words, there is nothing to prevent predatory behavior at the international level. This anarchic system creates conditions for states to seek more power.[4] The best way for a state to survive is to become a hegemon. Although global hegemony is the goal, there are powerful forces mitigating any state from achieving it, so most great powers strive for regional hegemony. Through this lens, Russia’s seizure of Crimea and support for separatists in Eastern Ukraine was part of its attempt at regional hegemony.
Topic:: Armed Conflict, Strategic Culture, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Ukraine

276. How Sudan's Wars of Succession Shape the Current Conflict

Author:: Alden Young
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:: Since fighting broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the government-sponsored paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in April of 2023, according to the International Rescue Committee at least 25 million people out of a total population of roughly 48.7 million are in need of basic humanitarian aid. The crisis is escalating with fighting spreading to new parts of the country. Perhaps 37 percent of the country is confronting acute food insecurity.[1] Other statistics are also dire. Nine million people have been displaced within Sudan, while 1.7 million have been forced to flee to other countries. Most of the receiving countries such as Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia, and South Sudan are already vulnerable. Initially the conflict was most intense in the capital of Khartoum and in the western provinces of Darfur and Kordofan, but in the last few months it has also spread to regions like Gezira state, the traditional breadbasket of the country.[2] The International Rescue Committee reports that, “Sudan is now the country with the largest number of displaced people and the largest child displacement crisis in the world.”[3] Many migrants who are able to head to the eastern regions of Sudan hope to eventually transit to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and from there potentially to other destinations.[4] Ever since the outbreak of the conflict the international community has rallied to negotiate an end to the fighting. The United States and Saudi Arabia have teamed up to negotiate at least sixteen failed ceasefires, while the African Union, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, and Egypt have all tried to develop alternative ceasefire and negotiating forums. In January, Mariel Ferragamo and Diana Roy assessed that “negotiation efforts were at a standstill.” [5] Despite the magnitude of the crisis in Sudan a year after fighting broke out, the response from the international community has been paltry. The United Nations has asked for $2.7 billion dollars in order to address the dire humanitarian situation in the country. However, the conflict in Sudan, which is already a regional crisis involving neighbors such as Chad, the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Egypt, Libya, and Ethiopia, has largely been overshadowed by the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. To date, the United Nations says that it has received only $424.9 million dollars to address the situation in Sudan.[6] Some of the worst violence during the conflict has taken place in the state of West Darfur. In what many Darfurians experience as reminders of the violence that broke out nearly two decades ago. There have been many credible reports of sexual violence, mass expulsions, and ethnic cleansing. Notably, members of the Masalit ethnic group have been repeatedly targeted as supporters of the SAF by the RSF and their allied militias.[7] The war in Darfur is in many ways a microcosm of the wider conflict, but it also points to the conflict’s direct origins in the long insurgency and counterinsurgency in Darfur.
Topic:: History, Armed Conflict, and Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

277. Russia’s Space Program After 2024

Author:: Pavel Luzin
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:: Since 2022, Russia’s space program has been in a state of turbulence and uncertainty. However, the deterioration started in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and began the first round of the war against Ukraine. Multiple factors have made the sustainable development of the Russian space program impossible: sanctions, an embargo on advanced industrial equipment, workforce shortages, limited financial resources spread among too many projects, cancellation of space cooperation with Western partners except operations on the International Space Station (ISS), and the economic inefficiency of the Russian space industry. The Russian government and Roscosmos are struggling to increase space expenditures, but monetary inflation, cost-plus inflation within the space industry, and devaluation of the ruble do not allow them to reverse the negative trends. Despite these factors, Russia will keep manned spaceflights and the military space program at any cost. Consequently, Russia has two main priorities by the 2030s. First, it must maintain the presence of Russian astronauts in outer space even after the ISS era and without any significant scientific outcomes. Second, it must switch satellite manufacturing from space-grade electronics to relatively simple and cheap consumer-grade electronics. This preference for quantity over quality of satellites would allow Russia to boost its manufacturing of short-lived satellites, which will be replaced quickly and provide the armed forces with communication and intelligence capabilities. In the area of satellite navigation, Russia will struggle to maintain the current architecture of GRusslobal’naya Navigatsionnaya Sputnikovaya Sistema, or Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS), and the development of new architecture with less satellites is also questionable. The optimistic scenario is that Russia’s satellite navigation system with new architecture will cover only the Russian and neighboring territories. However, the Russian armed forces use the consumer-grade GPS and BeiDou trackers, so the deteriorating GLONASS is not a crucial problem for them.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Space, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

278. Advise, Assist, Enable: A Critical Analysis of the US Army's Security Force Assistance Mission During the War on Terror

Author:: John A. Nagl and Marshall Cooperman
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:: The U.S. Army struggled to build capable host-nation security forces in Iraq and Afghanistan because it did not give those security force assistance (SFA) missions the priority and support they deserved. Both the selection and training of U.S. advisors were highly flawed. The Army also struggled to ensure the selection of high-quality personnel into the host-nation forces. Much of the SFA effort was conducted in an ad hoc manner, without sufficient funding or strategic prioritization. Today, the Army has corrected many of the issues that plagued its SFA formations during the War on Terror by creating a permanent Security Force Assistance Command and six Security Force Assistance Brigades. It is essential for the Army to maintain and support these formations to ensure that the bitter lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan are not forgotten.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, North America, and United States of America

279. Countering a "Great Jihad" in Central Asia

Author:: Bruce Pannier
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:: Concerns about Islamic extremism are rising in Central Asia. None of the governments in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, or Uzbekistan are commenting publicly about any specific threats. Still, there is a lot of activity aimed at controlling how Islam is practiced and what people say about the religion on social networks in these majority-Muslim countries. Law enforcement agencies are carrying out security operations aimed at rooting out suspected Islamic extremists in their countries, almost certainly spurred by citizens of the Central Asian states’ involvement in terrorist plots and acts outside the region. All this has happened before in Central Asia, but previous extremism or terrorism problems affected only an individual Central Asian country. Now, all five Central Asian governments are taking actions, showing that these fresh concerns are spread across the region. Though these worries are not directly connected to the Taliban, the recent commotion in Central Asia started after the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in mid-August 2021.
Topic:: Islam, Counter-terrorism, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:: Central Asia

280. A "Frozen Conflict" Boils Over: Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 and Future Implications

Author:: Walter Landgraf and Nareg Seferian
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:: This report has two objectives: first, to present an account of the conflict with an emphasis on analytically useful categories and context up to the present, and second, to discuss local, regional, and global consequences of the latest developments of the dispute, including policy implications and recommendations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, Territorial Disputes, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh

281. Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in the “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine

Author:: Igor Delanoë
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:: Russia’s Black Sea Fleet’s supremacy on the Black Sea naval theater was contested in the early stage of the conflict. Ukraine’s anti-surface and drone capacities have challenged the Black Sea Fleet’s supremacy at sea, creating a form of sea denial. The Black Sea Fleet adapted its posture to a conflict of attrition. The scope of the missions fulfilled by the Black Sea Fleet has increased over time to include more protection and detection tasks, while active defense remains the general posture at sea. The post-conflict Black Sea Fleet should be more littoralized than before the “special operation.” Lessons already learned from conflict, constraints created by the sanctions, and financial priorities should accelerate the littoralization and the kalibrization of the Black Sea Fleet.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Navy, Russia-Ukraine War, and Black Sea Fleet
Political Geography:: Russia and Black Sea

282. The Realignment of the Middle East

Author:: Lior Sternfeld
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:: In the Middle East, reality can change in the blink of an eye. Misconceptions and misrepresentations that dominate the public discourse have it that the region has been embroiled in war since time immemorial. Still, even its most recognizable conflict—the Israel-Palestine dispute—has been going on for only a century. This report will not focus on the history of that conflict but instead will try to analyze the realignment of the key players in the region and beyond and point out several pathways to build on in securing peace. Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has been the sole global superpower. The change in world politics and the demise of the Soviet Union did not end the perception of alliances as zero-sum games. The War on Terror, the debacle of Iraq and Afghanistan, the rise of movements such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, the Arab Spring, and the collapse of old state structures, somehow fortified this approach over a more nuanced and pragmatic approach. Since the early 1990s, China entered as a secondary force and slowly gained a different status. This report examines the changes the Chinese doctrine might bring to the geopolitics in the region. Furthermore, it will examine the role China has played in the reshaping of the Middle East as a multipolar region, the transformation in the American role, and identify areas where the United States can take advantage of the new multipolarity in the region in light of Chinese activity.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, History, and Realignment
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, and United States of America

283. Russian Women in the Face of War Against Ukraine

Author:: Egle Murauskaite
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:: Consider the following pieces of a puzzle. Russia’s war against Ukraine has revealed stories about the heroic resistance efforts of Ukrainian women[1]: from a grandmother launching a pickle jar against a drone[2] to volunteers with territorial defense units.[3] However, comparable stories have been entirely lacking on Russia’s side: How come? Here is another piece: the stories of rape and abuse in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories have shaken the world, with male Russian soldiers featured as systematic perpetrators of war crimes.[4] Were there any female soldiers or pro-Russian civilians involved? The historical background of multiple conflicts across continents does suggest an active women’s role as perpetrators of war crimes (including rape) and terrorism, not only victims.[5] Perhaps it is only a matter of time until stories of Russian women involved in these crimes start to emerge. How do these pieces fit together? I delve into these narratives in an information environment that is still extremely limited (particularly in terms of Russian-language sources)
Topic:: Women, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

284. Paralysis versus Obedience: China’s Local Policymakers’ Strategic Adaptation To Political centralization

Author:: Jessica C. Teets
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:: Under the concept of “top-level design,” President Xi Jinping has repurposed institutions to eliminate problems caused by local discretion such as corruption and policy implementation gaps. Increasing centralization of policy and strict penalties for lack of compliance is resulting in local officials no longer experimenting with policy to solve local governance problems and instead focusing more on documenting procedures. These strategic adaptations lead to erratic policy swings between paralysis and overcompliance at the local level, and an increasingly rigid and unresponsive policy process. Although these institutional changes are resulting in less corruption and more standardized governance (rule by law), they also reduce the local feedback and policy autonomy that constructed a more durable system than normally seen in authoritarian regimes (so-called “resilient authoritarianism”).
Topic:: Corruption, Xi Jinping, Centralization, and Strategic Adaptation
Political Geography:: China and Asia

285. Russia and China in Central Asia

Author:: Bruce Pannier
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:: The two countries that have the greatest influence in Central Asia are Russia and China. Moscow and Beijing have common interests in Central Asia, foremost are security interests connected to sharing long borders with a mainly Muslim region that itself borders Afghanistan. However, both these giant neighbors view Central Asia differently. Russia and China each have their own purposes in Central Asia, some of which do not affect the other, but some that at the least make the other country uncomfortable. Since Russia launched its full-scale war in Ukraine, these Sino-Russian rifts are becoming more pronounced. Russia and China want the current status quo in Central Asia, and that is the reason both countries have been concerned by the three revolutions in Kyrgyzstan since 2005. Moscow and Beijing know the top people in the Central Asian governments and have established security and business ties in all five countries. Neither China nor Russia want their relationships with individual Central Asian states to change, and neither wants to see the arrival of strong outside competitors for influence in Central Asia as was the case when the United States and its allies suddenly increased their presence in Central Asia for the campaign in Afghanistan in the years after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Strategic Interests, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Central Asia, Eurasia, and Asia

286. Kyrgyzstan: Central Asia's Island of Democracy Sinks into Authoritarianism

Author:: Bruce Pannier
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:: In the early 1990s, Kyrgyzstan was often referred to as an “island of democracy” in Central Asia. The “island’s” shores have receded over the years, but relative to its neighbors, Kyrgyzstan remained the most democratic country. Three distinguishing features of Kyrgyzstan include an active political opposition, a vibrant civil society, and independent media outlets. The current government is eliminating all three of those distinctions. Political opposition leaders have been jailed, civil society has been intimidated and prevented from holding public meetings, and independent media have been taken to court and their websites blocked. Worse might be coming soon. Domestic and international criticisms and appeals that swayed previous Kyrgyz governments are having no effect in persuading those currently in power to turn away from their present course. Kyrgyzstan is set to join the club of authoritarian governments in the region. The country is almost there already.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Domestic Politics, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Central Asia and Kyrgyzstan

287. Critical Minerals and Great Power Competition: An Overview

Author:: Jiayi Zhou and André Månberger
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:: With global politics increasingly fractured, states are rushing to secure critical and strategic mineral supply chains. Each state conceptualizes mineral security differently, driven by a mix of imperatives that range from national development and industrial policy to technological and military dominance. Great power competition pervades all of these issue areas, and that competition may also pose risks at the global level: risks for the pace of green transition, risks of geoeconomic escalation and risks of conflict. This report provides an insightful overview of the mineral security policies of four key powers: China, the European Union, Russia and the United States. It describes the distinct ways in which they conceptualize mineral security, comparing their priority lists of critical and strategic minerals. It considers the wider imperatives that motivate their policies and assesses the implications for developing countries. The report concludes by reflecting on the need to mitigate the worst of the resultant risks through expanded dialogue with a wider set of stakeholders. The goal is a form of mineral security that can serve more broad-based, global developmental interests.
Topic:: European Union, Strategic Competition, Green Transition, Critical Minerals, and Great Powers
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, and United States of America

288. Cyber Risk Reduction in China, Russia, the United States and the European Union

Author:: Lora Saalman, Fei Su, and Larisa Saveleva Dovgal
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:: This report provides an overview of cyber risk reduction terminology and regulatory measures within China, Russia, the United States and the European Union. It finds, among other things, that China and Russia excel at clear visuals and steps, yet they also tend to lack linguistic clarity. China, the USA and the EU possess interagency and public–private sector coordination, while facing jurisdictional overlap. All four actors are securing their supply chains, yet China and Russia face challenges with burdensome penalties for non-compliance, and the USA and the EU confront obstacles to enforcement at the state and member-state levels. This report is intended to provide a baseline for engagement among China, Russia, the USA and the EU on their respective approaches to cyber risk reduction.
Topic:: European Union, Cybersecurity, Public-Private Partnership, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, and United States of America

289. Navigating Security Dilemmas in Indo-Pacific Waters: Undersea Capabilities and Armament Dynamics

Author:: Tytti Erästö, Fei Su, and Wilfred Wan
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:: This paper examines the drivers and implications of naval build-ups in the Indo-Pacific, considering key actors’ security objectives and threat perceptions, as well as the interplay of regional dynamics and strategic relations between nuclear-armed states. The focus is on undersea armament involving submarines and anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities, which constitute a significant focus of military investments. The paper considers the related horizontal and vertical escalation risks, meaning a potential increase in the scope and scale of conflict. Particular attention is paid to nuclear-conventional entanglement related to the counterforce potential of ASW capabilities. In addition to seeking to raise awareness of these dynamics, the paper provides recommendations aimed at mitigating the risks related to the increased undersea activities in the Indo-Pacific.
Topic:: National Security, Strategic Stability, Submarines, and Threat Perception
Political Geography:: Indo-Pacific

290. Getting Ukraine to a Position of Strength: A Strategy for the Trump Administration

Author:: Luke Coffey
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Below are five reasons why Ukraine is important to US interests. 1. Protecting the US economy. North America and Europe account for nearly half of the world’s GDP. Two-thirds of foreign investment into the US comes from Europe, and 48 states export more to Europe than to China. This supports millions of American jobs. European stability, which Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine undermines, benefits the US economy and, by extension, the American worker. Aiding Ukraine helps preserve that stability. 2. Detering Chinese aggression. Russia is China’s junior partner. A weakened or defeated Russia means a weaker China. Beijing is watching how the West supports Ukraine. A strong and victorious Ukraine makes Taiwan appear stronger and deters Chinese aggression. 3. Succeeding in great power competition. Russia’s war against Ukraine is central to America’s great power competition against the Russia–China–Iran–North Korea axis. North Korea has provided 10,000 soldiers, millions of artillery shells, and hundreds of missiles to Russia in exchange for military technology. Meanwhile, Iran provides Russia with drones and ballistic missiles in exchange for fighter jets and other advanced capabilities. China’s technical, economic, and diplomatic support for Russia enables all this as part of Beijing’s strategy to undermine the US. 4. Preparing the US military enterprise for twenty-first-century warfare. Support for Ukraine has exposed major shortcomings in the US defense industrial base that can now be fixed. The war has also tested American-made military hardware in a way not possible in peacetime—with no American casualties. The US is learning what works, what does not work, and how systems evolve in combat. And as Ukraine receives US weapons, America replaces its own weapons stocks with newer, more effective systems. 5. Demonstrating strength. A successful Ukraine demonstrates American strength. However, acquiescing to Putin and abandoning partners shows the world American weakness. Even forcing Ukraine into a deal that lopsidedly benefits Russia would embolden US adversaries and cause America’s allies to hedge toward other security arrangements.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economy, Deterrence, Donald Trump, Strategic Competition, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

291. Key Takeaways: The Future of US and Allied Hypersonic Missile Programs

Author:: Rebeccah L. Heinrichs
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Hudson Institute and Space Foundation cohosted a workshop with Congressmen Doug Lamborn (R-CO), Vince Fong (R-CA), and Donald Norcross (D-NJ), Admiral James A. Winnefeld Jr., and former Office of the Secretary of Defense officials Mike White and John Plumb to discuss the future of the United States military’s hypersonic missile and missile defeat programs.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, Missile Defense, and Hypersonic Weapons
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

292. US-India Economic Ties: To the Next Level and Beyond

Author:: Aparna Pande
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: This executive summary outlines the key recommendations for policymakers that emerged from deliberations at the Takshashila Institution–Hudson Institute roundtable series “US-India Economic Ties: To the Next Level and Beyond.” Its recommendations are divided into four proposed areas for collaboration between India and the United States: trade and investment, ideas and human capital, technology, and methods and mechanisms.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, North America, and United States of America

293. Understanding and Countering China’s Global South Strategy in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: John Lee
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: While the United States and advanced economies and democracies in Europe and Asia are hardening their views of and position against China, the latter is gaining much ground with respect to the developing economies of the Global South. Indeed, China increasingly demands that developing nations base their discourse and policies on approaches that Beijing supports, and many Global South nations are increasingly complying. In other words, a growing number of these nations have started to alter and adopt discourse and policies that better align with Chinese demands and preferences. In the Indo-Pacific, a region that will largely determine the future shape of the global strategic landscape, evidence shows that developing nations are absorbing Chinese norms and preferences and gradually adjusting their thinking and behaviors accordingly. China’s progress vis-à-vis the Global South—especially in the Indo-Pacific—relies on what material inducements and opportunities Beijing can offer. These are most successful when they prioritize rapid development and regime security over liberal economic rules and individual rights. Meanwhile, regardless of where the fault lies, many developing nations do not believe they have benefited as much materially or institutionally from the US-led order as they would like or expect. Members of the Global South often believe the Chinese narrative about the alleged failure of US-led globalization in the post-colonial and post–Cold War periods. For this reason, many in developing economies believe that the interests and values of these nations (or at least those of the regimes in power) better align with what China is promising than with what Washington is delivering. The US and allies such as Japan and Australia have to accept and respond to this reality. This report analyzes and assesses why and how China is making worrying progress when it comes to shaping and influencing the policies and actions of developing economies in the Indo-Pacific. It explains why this is a significant problem for the US and its allies. It then offers some recommendations to counter the Chinese Global South strategy in the region. In offering six recommendations, this report argues that the US can complicate China’s bid for leadership within the Global South, increase the cost and risk for Beijing, challenge and change narratives and discourse favoring China in the Global South, and compete more effectively in the normative and institutional context.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Global South, and Indo-Pacific

294. The US Should Support the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan

Author:: Luke Coffey
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: More than three years ago, the Taliban swept back into power in Afghanistan after a two-decade insurgency against the internationally backed Afghan government. Since then, the situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated considerably. The country faces an acute humanitarian crisis affecting millions and has once again become a haven for transnational terrorism. This tragic outcome was not inevitable, and it is worth reviewing recent history. Starting in 2014, United States troops in Afghanistan were no longer leading daily combat operations but were instead primarily training the Afghan military. When President Donald Trump entered office in January 2017, there were only 11,000 US troops in Afghanistan conducting the counterterrorism and training mission. This was down from a peak of 100,000 troops in 2010–11. In February 2020, Trump agreed to a deal with the Taliban that would have seen the phased withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan by May 2021. This agreement was the starting point of the Afghan government’s collapse and the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021. In January 2021, when President Joe Biden entered office, there were only 2,500 US troops in Afghanistan. Crucially, the US still provided close air support for Afghan forces. While this was not enough troops to ensure that the Afghan government could control the whole country, it was enough for the US to meet its counterterrorism objectives and prevent the Taliban from taking power. Instead of canceling the flawed withdrawal agreement with the Taliban—something that was in Biden’s power to do—the president merely delayed the date from May to September. On July 2 the US departed the strategically located and geopolitically important Bagram Airfield in the middle of the night without warning its Afghan partners. Around the same time, the US stopped providing Afghan troops with close air support. By the end of July, almost all US and international forces had left the country. On August 6, 2021, the Taliban captured Zaranj, the capital of Nimroz Province. This was the first time in almost 20 years that the terror group had successfully captured and held one of Afghanistan’s 34 provincial capitals. Soon after, government-controlled capitals started falling like dominos. The Taliban finally captured Kabul on August 15. By September 11—the twentieth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks—the Taliban controlled more of Afghanistan than it did on that day in 2001. Since the Taliban’s return to power, only one credible and non-extremist group has been willing to take up arms in opposition: the National Resistance Front (NRF) of Afghanistan, led by Ahmad Massoud. Based in the Panjshir Province and operating in more than a dozen other provinces, the NRF has continued to fight against the Taliban against all odds and without any international support. Though there is no longer an American presence in Afghanistan, the country remains geopolitically important. Afghanistan’s location in the heart of the Eurasian landmass has made it strategically significant in great power competition throughout the nineteenth, twentieth, and twenty-first centuries. There is no reason to assume this will change anytime soon. The Biden administration’s actions have left the US without many good policy options in Afghanistan. Furthermore, many Afghans remain distrustful of the White House. But a new US administration will have an opportunity to reset American policy toward the country.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Terrorism, Taliban, Democracy, and National Resistance Front
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and South Asia

295. The Rise of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific and the Challenge of Deterrence

Author:: Kenneth R. Weinstein and William Chou
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: The late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe first introduced the concept of a free and open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) in July 2016. Over the past eight years, FOIP has redefined the geopolitics of Asia, becoming central to the strategic visions of Japan, the United States, Australia, India, South Korea, key European nations, and the European Union. Every nation that has adopted FOIP has developed its own version of the concept. But FOIP still repositions the strategic geography of Asia, broadening the region from the Asia-Pacific, which placed a dominant China at the center, to the Pacific and Indian Oceans. This shift highlights the critical role of the four large democracies that comprise the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad)—Japan, India, the US, and Australia—a partnership the states revived with the ascent of FOIP. FOIP, moreover, offers a conceptual counter to the strategy of China’s One Belt, One Road (also known as the Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI) by engaging Australia and Europe on the importance of economic development assistance for, and investment in, Southeast Asia. The Trump administration’s rapid adoption of FOIP—the first time an ally’s strategic concept became central to US grand strategy—deepened America and Japan’s strategic alignment, which encouraged Tokyo to become more engaged in security and encouraged the US to become more engaged in economic development. The concept has made immense contributions to Indo-Pacific connectivity, prosperity, peace, and security. It has also been central to the Biden administration’s efforts to move away from the traditional hub-and-spoke alliance in which US partners worked directly with Washington as the hub but not with not each other, toward a lattice architecture in which like-minded allies (such as Australia, Japan, South Korea and the Philippines) are linked to each other in a mutually reinforcing effort to meet the region’s security challenges. However, a Hudson Institute tabletop exercise conducted for this study showed the limitations of FOIP as a strategic doctrine. Specifically, it cannot induce either friendly or less-friendly ASEAN countries to openly aid Taiwan if the People’s Republic of China seeks either to invade or impose a blockade. FOIP, nonetheless, remains central to promoting prosperity and connectivity in the Indo-Pacific. In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan refashioned FOIP and focused on promoting agreement around minimal international norms that Russia violated. To enhance regional trust, Kishida highlighted an “Indo-Pacific way,” which would enhance regional resilience by mitigating natural disasters through cooperation under Japanese leadership and enhancing maritime security. Herein lies the security paradox behind FOIP: The concept can extend the network of partners and allies dedicated to Indo-Pacific security. This, in turn, may reduce the burden America bears by shifting it to other nations. But for the time being, FOIP rests upon the foundation of US deterrence.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Alliance, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Japan, India, Australia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

296. How the US Can Beat the Kremlin in Moldova

Author:: Peter Rough and Luke Coffey
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine was a seismic event for the Republic of Moldova. The war upended Chișinău’s long-held belief that constitutional neutrality would protect the country. Additionally, the invasion focused Brussels’s attention on Moldova, which the European Union has often regarded as an afterthought. Moscow’s war catalyzed Moldova’s politics and forced Chișinău and Brussels to make fundamental choices about their future relationship on an accelerated timetable. If Russia hadn’t launched its full-scale invasion, the EU would have probably not invited Moldova to open accession talks so quickly. Important elections in Moldova and a perilous situation in Ukraine ensure that 2024 will be a pivotal year on Chișinău’s path toward Western integration. United States and European policymakers should proactively shape an outcome that benefits both Moldovans and the Euro-Atlantic community.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Organization, Democracy, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, and Moldova

297. Deterring China: Imposing Nonmilitary Costs to Preserve Peace in the Taiwan Strait

Author:: John Lee and Lavina Lee
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: The United States, Australia, and other allies have spent decades downplaying the prospect of conflict with the People’s Republic of China (PRC), offering Beijing incentives and concessions to assuage its ambitions, and managing their differences with China by seeking to deescalate tensions when they arose. In more recent times, when there is an emerging consensus that the decades-long approach to China has failed, policymakers have elevated deterrence as the urgent priority. This report makes the following key points. First, the case for urgency in the context of deterring Chinese force against Taiwan is clear.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Sanctions, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Australia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

298. Effective US Energy Policy Could Strengthen International Security

Author:: Brigham McCown
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: America faces significant geopolitical risk across multiple theaters of operation. With the post–Cold War peace dividend depleted, today’s multipolar political alignment reflects an instability not seen in nearly 100 years. Russia, Iran, and China are directly challenging the American-led world order. Their goal is clear, and the United States cannot allow them to prevail. While Russia’s disregard for the rule of law and internationally established boundaries preoccupies the near term, an emerging great power competition between the West and China looms over Washington’s mid- to long-term foreign policy priorities. Additionally, Iran’s malign influence has led to a resurgence of violence and instability in the Middle East. Closer to home, socialist and anti-democratic governments in the Western Hemisphere are again wooing voters with the failed and discredited policies of yesteryear. As a new geopolitical status quo emerges, the United States will need a secure source of energy. Energy security can be defined as a country’s ability to ensure the uninterrupted availability of reliable and affordable energy sources. It encompasses the stable supply of energy resources, the resilience of energy infrastructure, and a country’s ability to meet its current and future energy demands while also dealing with emergencies, natural disasters, and geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply. A responsible energy mix promotes national and economic security while providing a realistic pathway to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This will include hydrocarbons, renewables, nuclear, and lower-emitting energy sources such as geothermal, hydroelectric, and biofuels. However, the glue that binds any stable energy transition is a key bridge fuel: natural gas. Liquified natural gas (LNG) is critical to meet global energy demand and reduce emissions while promoting American energy security and economic stability worldwide. Yet, the Biden administration recently announced plans to restrict US natural gas exports, directly affecting America’s key allies. In this environment, lawmakers should reflect upon their previous missteps before implementing energy policies that will make the regulatory environment more unstable and unpredictable. Lessons from the Past and Present During World War II, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s drive to build an arsenal of democracy required American energy resources. The US supplied 85 percent of the oil and gas the Allies used,1 including 90 percent of aviation fuel by 1944.2 Ever since then, energy security has been necessary for creating and maintaining peace. Recent events have brought the relationship between energy, economics, and national security back into acute focus. Last year marked the fiftieth anniversary of the Arab Oil Embargo, a reminder of the shortsighted energy policies that gave away America’s energy independence and made the US reliant on Middle Eastern oil for decades. The anniversary coincided with Europe’s struggle to sustain itself following the removal of Russian oil and gas from the market.3 That struggle is not over,4 and the collapse of certain European industrial sectors is ongoing as the continent’s energy prices remain elevated (see figure 1). Drawing on these lessons from history and recent events, below are four principles to guide the future of American energy policy.
Topic:: Energy Policy, National Security, International Security, and Natural Gas
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

299. Moldova votes 2024: A choice between Russia and the EU

Author:: Hugo Blewett-Mundy
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: Moldova stands at a critical juncture that will determine its position within Europe. In the elections on Sunday, the incumbent president Maia Sandu is seeking a second term and a positive result in the EU accession referendum to reaffirm her country’s path towards Europe. But the hybrid threat facing Moldova from Russia will not dissipate, particularly as next year’s pivotal parliamentary elections approach in the tiny former Soviet republic. Hugo Blewett-Mundy, a non-resident associate research fellow from EUROPEUM, analyses the current situation in Moldova and provides an outlook for the country in 2025.
Topic:: Elections, European Union, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Moldova

300. Regional Cooperation in Central Europe in the Aftermath of Russia’s War: Changes and Prospects

Author:: EUROPEUM
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: On April 18th, EUROPEUM’s Brussels Office in partnership with PISM Brussels Office under the Think Visegrad platform hosted a discussion titled “Regional Cooperation in Central Europe in the Aftermath of Russia’s War: Changes and Prospects”. This event was attended by 15 experts from think tanks and representatives of EU institutions.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Central Europe

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS