Content Type: Special Report / Publication Year: within 10 Years / Topic: Terrorism

1. Trends in the Disengagement-, Rehabilitation-, and Risk-Assessment-Process of extremist and terrorist offenders

Author:: Daniela Pisoiu and Anna Maria Hirschhuber
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: The genuine reintegration of terrorist and extremist offenders is one of the biggest challenges of our times. Because in many cases, only an alleged reintegration into society takes place (u.a. Cherney, 2021; Jawaid, 2017). This mistake can cost lives as we have sadly seen in Vienna 2020. The Vienna attacker was in fact a terrorism recidivist, as he had already been convicted on terrorism counts (Lehberger et al. 2020). This is not just a problem specific to Austria, but it impacts a number of countries within and outside of Europe.
Topic:: Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Rehabilitation, and Deradicalization
Political Geography:: Europe and Austria

2. Faltering Lion: Analyzing Progress and Setbacks in Somalia’s War against al-Shabaab

Author:: James Barnett
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Analysts have long understood the war against al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda’s East African affiliate, as “unwinnable” and “[with] no end in sight.” Most have considered the group one of the largest and most sophisticated jihadist insurgencies on the planet while viewing Somalia, the state in which it was born and primarily operates, as a quintessential “failed state.” Yet in mid-2022, many analysts began to change their tune. Al-Shabaab began to suffer its most significant setbacks in a decade at the hands of a clan uprising in Somalia’s central states of Hirshabelle and Galmudug. The uprising quickly received military support from the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), and some United States officials believe it constitutes Somalia’s Anbar Awakening. Meanwhile, Somali officials speak of this offensive, which they’ve now dubbed Operation Black Lion, as the long-awaited death blow against the group. Unfortunately, the pendulum started to swing back after al-Shabaab began regrouping and counterattacking in early 2023. As of September 2023, the Somali government is struggling to complete the offensive that began last year in central Somalia. All the while, the government promises to achieve ever more ambitious goals for defeating the group in its southern Somalian strongholds by the end of 2024. The question, then, is whether Somalia is really turning a page in the war against al-Shabaab, with the group’s defeat or meaningful degradation in sight for the first time in years, or if the FGS’s battlefield progress in 2022 was merely a short-lived setback for the terrorist group. In this report, I argue that the ongoing, if faltering, offensive against al-Shabaab reveals the dilemma of counterterrorism in the Horn of Africa: On the one hand, al-Shabaab is not invincible, and the group’s center of gravity—its ability to gain a modicum of acceptance or legitimacy from vulnerable Somali communities—has been exposed as fragile. On the other hand, Somalia’s perennial and myriad political disputes, as well as other issues like a lack of state capacity and rampant corruption, are preventing its federal and state governments from capitalizing on the opportunities available to them. Instead, Mogadishu, aware of its limited military capacity, is looking to the militaries of neighboring Kenya and Ethiopia to bear the brunt of its anticipated offensive into southern Somalia, even though these countries’ controversial interventions in Somalia over the years have catalyzed al-Shabaab’s formation and expansion. In any case, there appears to be little appetite from either country to engage in another offensive. Al-Shabaab, for its part, is counterattacking against government forces in central Somalia and looking to expand its operations in neighboring countries—in part to hinder those regional militaries’ potential participation in any forthcoming offensive. Consequently, the situation looks less promising than it did at the end of 2022, and al-Shabaab is unlikely to face a meaningful defeat in the coming months. Instead, the best-case scenario would see this military offensive degrade al-Shabaab over the coming months to the point that the terrorist organization partially fractures and loses some of its popular support, possibly opening up room for the FGS to negotiate with factions of the group. A more likely scenario, however, would see the conflict remain a stalemate, with the government’s current offensive bringing only temporary or superficial gains that do not meaningfully degrade al-Shabaab’s capacity. I have drawn this report from insights I gained during a four-week trip to Kenya and Somalia in June 2023. Within Somalia, I traveled around the federal capital, Mogadishu, as well as the capitals of the states of Jubbaland, Galmudug, and Puntland, in the south, center, and north of the country respectively. I also traveled to the frontline town of Bar Sanguuni, near al-Shabaab–controlled territory in Jubbaland, and separately to Las Anod, a disputed city that both Somaliland and local clans have claimed and that is at the heart of a new regional conflict. Given the sensitivity of discussing security matters in Somalia, I have anonymized the details of interview subjects in almost all references.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Alliance, and Al-Shabaab
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

3. Pakistan Security Report 2022

Author:: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:: In 2022, the number of terrorist attacks in Pakistan marked an increase of 27 percent from the previous year. The number of terrorist attacks in the country also continued to rise for the second consecutive year. A total of 262 terrorist attacks in Pakistan in the year – including 14 suicide bombings –claimed in all 419 lives and injured another 734 people. A 25 percent increase has been recorded in fatalities in the outgoing year as compared with 2021. Pak Institute for Peace Studies revealed these statistics in its annual “Pakistan Security Report 2022”. The report further noted that the proscribed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) was becoming a major irritant in Islamabad’s relations with the Taliban government in Kabul as the militant group remained one of the major actors of violence in Pakistan in the year 2022. Other critical actors of violence in 2022 were Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) and Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA). Over 60 percent of total terrorist attacks recorded in Pakistan in the year were perpetrated by these three militant groups. Similarly, about 95 percent of the total recorded terrorist attacks in Pakistan in 2022 concentrated in in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Governance, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Asia

4. Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 2)

Author:: Sarah J. Lohmann, Lucas M. Cox, Denise Feldner, Trevor P. Helmy, and Katherine L. Kuzminski
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Every day, malicious actors target emerging technologies and medical resilience or seek to wreak havoc in the wake of disasters brought on by climate change, energy insecurity, and supply-chain disruptions. Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield is a handbook on how to strengthen critical infrastructure resilience in an era of emerging threats. The counterterrorism research produced for this volume is in alignment with NATO’s Warfighting Capstone Concept, which details how NATO Allies can transform and maintain their advantage despite new threats for the next two decades. The topics are rooted in NATO’s Seven Baseline requirements, which set the standard for enhancing resilience in every aspect of critical infrastructure and civil society. As terrorists hone their skills to operate lethal drones, use biometric data to target innocents, and take advantage of the chaos left by pandemics and natural disasters for nefarious purposes, NATO forces must be prepared to respond and prevent terrorist events before they happen. Big-data analytics provides potential for NATO states to receive early warning to prevent pandemics, cyberattacks, and kinetic attacks. NATO is perfecting drone operations through interoperability exercises, and space is being exploited by adversaries. Hypersonic weapons are actively being used on the battlefield, and satellites have been targeted to take down wind farms and control navigation. This handbook is a guide for the future, providing actionable information and recommendations to keep our democracies safe today and in the years to come.
Topic:: NATO, Climate Change, Terrorism, Infrastructure, Elections, Drones, Pandemic, Resilience, Supply Chains, and Energy Sector
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

5. Seven Myths about the Iran Nuclear Deal

Author:: Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: In 2015, President Barack Obama worked with three European powers, the European Union, Iran, China, and Russia to conclude the Iran nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). In 2018, President Donald Trump formally withdrew the United States from the deal. Instituting his policy of “maximum pressure,” Trump imposed crippling economic sanctions that punished Iran not just for its ongoing nuclear weapons program but also for, among other things, its regional aggression and support for terrorism worldwide. Earlier in 2018, Israeli agents conducted a dramatic operation in Tehran, breaking into a secret warehouse and capturing a trove of Iranian nuclear files. These documents revealed a more advanced and comprehensive nuclear weapons program than had been previously known. The nuclear archive also showed Iranian officials’ plan for concealing nuclear weapons efforts under the guise of civilian research and development, and how Iranian officials systematically deceived the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). As a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran is required to cooperate with IAEA inspectors to verify the peaceful nature of its program. After the Israelis shared the nuclear archive with the IAEA, its inspectors found traces of uranium at several undeclared sites. Despite being obligated to do so, Tehran has refused to explain the presence of the uranium or reveal its current location. Iran’s requirements under the NPT are wholly separate from the JCPOA, but Tehran is using the Biden administration’s profound desire to return to the nuclear deal to bring political pressure on the IAEA to close the book on Iran’s violations. A fair-minded observer of Iran’s relations with the IAEA cannot but conclude that Tehran has never wavered from its intention to build a nuclear weapons capability and that its publicly declared “civilian” nuclear activities are an effort to hide its nuclear bomb program in plain sight. From the very inception of the JCPOA, however, the deal’s supporters have spun myths that disguise these self-evident truths. After Trump left the deal, those same supporters continued to recite the old myths while adding some new ones about the purported comparative advantage of the JCPOA over maximum pressure. As President Biden prepares to bring the United States back into the JCPOA, and as the public, the press, and Congress consider the deal's terms, we identify the seven most pernicious myths and explain the reality that they seek to conceal.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

6. Seven Myths about the “Historic” Israel-Lebanon Maritime Border Agreement

Author:: Michael Doran
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Commentators in the United States and Israel have hailed the agreement on the maritime border between Israel and Lebanon, which the Biden administration recently brokered, as a great success. They liken it to the Abraham Accords and claim that it is a major step toward normalizing relations between the Jewish State and a historic Arab foe. But a close examination of the agreement simply does not support this view. Amos Hochstein, the US State Department senior advisor for energy security, led the mediation effort to resolve this dispute. He built on the initiatives of Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump to reconcile the conflicting claims of Israel, which claimed Line 1 (see map) as the northern border of its exclusive economic zone (EEZ), and Lebanon, which claimed Line 23 as its southern border. In the final months of the Trump administration, Lebanese negotiators revised their claim, moving it further south to Line 29. Beirut, however, never registered this new claim with the United Nations. In other words, Line 23 always remained the official Lebanese position. When Hochstein arrived in Beirut last February, the Lebanese government abruptly dropped its insistence on Line 29 and presented its retreat as a sign of its flexibility, a compromise proposal that it could withdraw if the negotiations failed to produce satisfactory results.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, and Borders
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

7. Dealing with a Taliban-Controlled Afghanistan: Supporting the Afghan People without Legitimizing the Regime

Author:: Lisa Curtis
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: Nearly 20 years after U.S. forces overturned Taliban rule in Afghanistan, the fundamentalist Islamist movement is back in power. This follows the U.S. troop withdrawal in summer 2021 and a failed peace agreement between the United States and the Taliban that was concluded during the Trump administration. The U.S. government must continue to monitor terrorism threats emanating from Afghanistan and work with like-minded nations to protect Afghan civil society, especially women and girls. While competing with China may be America’s number one foreign policy priority, managing terrorism threats and protecting women’s rights in Afghanistan also demands continued U.S. attention and resources. First and foremost, the United States and other international donors must help Afghanistan avoid a humanitarian disaster and ensure average Afghans can meet their basic needs for food, shelter, and access to healthcare. While the United Nations and international humanitarian organizations are finding ways to get cash into the system without funneling it through the Taliban, there is a need to identify a more reliable and sustainable solution to Afghanistan’s liquidity crisis. However, releasing to the Taliban without conditions the nearly $7 billion in Afghan foreign reserves that Washington froze following the Taliban takeover of the country is not the answer. The Biden administration must avoid giving these assets to the Taliban interim government, which comprises mostly individuals who have been sanctioned for their involvement in terrorism.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Humanitarian Aid, Terrorism, Taliban, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and South Asia

8. Iran Entangled: Iran and Hezbollah’s Support to Proxies Operating in Syria

Author:: Nakissa Jahanbani and Suzanne Weedon Levy
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: At a time when power dynamics in the Middle East region are in flux due to the shifting circumstances of the Islamic State, the drawdown of U.S. troops in the region, and the intensification of Iranian-backed attacks on U.S. and Saudi Arabian targets in the region, an historical look at the support Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) provided to proxies during the Syrian civil war may yield insights into Iran’s past and present playbook not only in Syria but potentially other contexts. The civil war in Syria was a unique catalyst that intensified Iranian economic, political, and religious activity in the country, which was ongoing since the 1980s. During the conflict, Iran demonstrated the ability to exert influence tactically while also building a religious and social support base in Syrian society. Iran achieved these goals, in part, through raising and supporting various non-state militant groups in Syria. Drawing on open sources and interviews with subject matter experts, this report investigates the nature of Iranian and LH support to proxies operating in Syria from 2011 to 2019. While the nature of Iran’s proxy network is dynamic, it is useful to investigate the network at its peak years to understand existing and potential future structures and capabilities for Iranian external operations. This report investigates support from Iranian actors—inclusive of the IRGC and its various components, notably the Quds Force (IRGC-QF), as well as the Iranian government more generally—and LH through the lens of kinetic (e.g., joint attacks between the militias and Iranian actors and/or LH, personnel placed with militias, and training and weapons provided to militias) and non-kinetic assistance (e.g., funding, logistical support, recruitment and social service assistance, and meetings between Iranian actors and/or LH and militias). Looking at these two categories of support provides a more holistic snapshot of Iranian influence and capacity-building with proxies in Syria. The report’s findings indicate a pattern of support on the part of Iran and LH that potentially indicates a phased rollout of battlefield-related supports to be replaced with longer-term societal entrenchment efforts. Furthermore, Iran and LH share a division of labor between Iranian actors and LH for kinetic supports, but not non-kinetic ones. Specifically, this report found training, weapons provisions, funding, and joint attacks among the most common supports provided by Iran and LH. Finally, of all Iranian actors, this report found the IRGC to be the most prolific supporter to proxies operating in Syria.
Topic:: Terrorism, Weapons, Syrian War, Hezbollah, Proxy War, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC), Strategy, and Military Tactics
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Syria

9. Containing a Resilient ISIS in Central and North-eastern Syria

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Its self-declared caliphate is gone, but ISIS continues to stage attacks and intimidate the public in much of its former domain. The forces fighting the group need to hinder the militants’ movement between Syria’s regions – and, above all, to avoid debilitating conflicts with one another.
Topic:: Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, ISIS, War on Terror, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

10. Ukraine Russia Crisis: Terrorism Briefing

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: On 24 February 2022, Russia launched an attack on Ukraine. Figure 1 highlights that the invasion comes after a decade of deteriorating relations between Russia, Ukraine and the West. This brief covers several aspects relating to the current Ukrainian war, including the frequency of past acts of terrorism in Russia, Ukraine and Georgia and covers likely future scenarios. It also analyses cyberattacks on Ukraine over the last decade and lead up to the current war. The main finding is that terrorism increases with the intensity of conflict. Both the Georgian conflict in 2008 and the Ukrainian conflict of 2014 saw substantial spikes in terrorist activity around the wars, and as the current war intensifies increased terrorist activity should be expected. Secondly, cyberattacks on Ukraine have markedly increased over the last decade, and especially in the months and weeks leading up to the war. Further, cyberattacks have the potential to unintentionally spill over into other countries because of global connectivity, the effects of which have been seen on numerous occasions. As cyberattacks by nefarious actors are a recent phenomenon, and given the difficulty in the attribution of such attacks, the demarcation between what constitutes a cyberattack, cyber warfare or cyber terrorism are unclear. Regardless, this briefing looks at the broad phenomena of cyberattacks in Ukraine to offer background on recent events.
Topic:: Terrorism, Cybersecurity, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

11. Global Terrorism Index 2022

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: This is the ninth edition of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI). The report provides a comprehensive summary of the key global trends and patterns in terrorism over the last decade. The calculation of the GTI score takes into account not only deaths, but also incidents, hostages, and injuries from terrorism, weighted over a five-year period. The GTI report is produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) using data from TerrorismTracker and other sources. TerrorismTracker provides event records on terrorist attacks since 1 January 2007. The dataset contains over 60,500 terrorist incidents for the period 2007 to 2021.
Topic:: Terrorism, Ideology, COVID-19, and Ecology
Political Geography:: North Africa, Morocco, Sahel, Global Focus, and Sub-Saharan Africa

12. Global Peace Index 2022

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: This is the 16th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness. Produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. This report presents the most comprehensive data-driven analysis to-date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies. The GPI covers 163 countries comprising 99.7 per cent of the world’s population, using 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources, and measures the state of peace across three domains: the level of societal Safety and Security; the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict; and the degree of Militarisation. In addition to discussing the findings from the 2022 GPI, the report includes an analysis of the military conflict in Ukraine. It covers likely increases in military spending, new and emerging uses of technology in the war, its impact on food prices and global shipping routes. The report also contains a deeper analysis on violent demonstrations around the world.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Economics, Terrorism, Military Spending, Conflict, Peace, and Instability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13. Hezbollah in Colombia: Past and Present Modus Operandi and the Need for Greater Scrutiny

Author:: Aurora Ortega
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A probe of the group’s commercial activities can yield insights on its Latin American operations, which in recent years have touched not only Colombia but also Peru, Chile, and Bolivia. Research on Hezbollah in Latin America has tended to focus on Venezuela and the Tri-Border Area, covering Argentina, Paraguay, and Brazil, but recent events show that less noted countries deserve attention too. In 2014, for example, Peruvian police arrested a Hezbollah operative in Lima’s Surquillo district for planning a terrorist operation, and security services in the region also evidently disrupted a Hezbollah terrorist plot targeting innocent civilians in Chile. In 2017, Bolivian authorities identified a Hezbollah-affiliated warehouse and seized enough explosive precursor material to produce a two-and-a-half-ton bomb. Then, in fall 2021 in Colombia, local reporting indicated that Hezbollah was planning to assassinate an Israeli national as part of a broader operation that also targeted Americans, reportedly to avenge the January 2020 killing of Iran’s Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani. In this incisive Policy Note, researcher Aurora Ortega demonstrates how enhanced scrutiny of Hezbollah’s commercial ventures could provide insight into the group’s operations and potentially disrupt its infrastructure in the Western Hemisphere. To this end, she highlights the activities of little-known Hezbollah agents in Latin America and outlines opportunities for the United States to interdict them through a mix of law enforcement, sanctions, and diplomacy.
Topic:: Terrorism, Non State Actors, Law Enforcement, Hezbollah, and Commerce
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

14. U.S. Counterterrorism Reimagined: Tracking the Biden Administration's Effort to Reform How America Addresses Violent Extremism

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This collection reveals the growing prevalence of nonkinetic tools while exploring the balance authorities must strike between preventing attacks and protecting civil rights. Two very different events epitomized the CT/CVE challenge facing the incoming Biden administration in 2021: the January 6 insurrection at the Capitol and the August U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. The first reflected the sharp rise in violent extremism from white supremacists, anti-government actors, and other similar figures, while the second presented the disturbing prospect of Taliban-ruled Afghanistan as a haven for Islamist terrorism. These watershed moments occurred as Washington sought to free up funds to address a wide range of equally important national security issues, from the rise of China and Russia, to climate change, domestic infrastructure needs, and public health issues. The tenth volume of The Washington Institute’s Counterterrorism Lecture Series, edited by Matthew Levitt, covers the period January 2021 to March 2022. While revealing a trend toward nonkinetic tools—as indicated by a full-day Institute panel devoted to the subject—the selections also probe the delicate but necessary balance officials must strike between preventing attacks and protecting civil rights.
Topic:: Terrorism, Civil Rights, Joe Biden, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

15. Fighting Jihadists By, With, and Through U.S. Partners: Lessons Learned and Future Prospects

Author:: Ido Levy
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Special forces have succeeded especially in such missions, but any BWT effort requires some U.S. ground presence to achieve its goals. As part of its bid to end Middle East “forever wars,” the United States has employed a “by, with, and through” (BWT) doctrine for fighting jihadist adversaries. Such operations rely on local partner forces to assume the bulk of the hard ground combat, sometimes with U.S. accompaniment, while American advisors provide support through training, intelligence, heavy air and artillery assets, equipment, funding, and logistics. BWT missions have seen success over the past two decades in theaters such as Iraq (with the Counter Terrorism Service), Syria (with the Syrian Democratic Forces), and Somalia (with the Danab Brigade). But they do not succeed on their own and must be guided by several principles, including a serious U.S. commitment, alignment of American and partner interests, and strong interpersonal relations between advisors and local actors. In this tightly argued Policy Note, military analyst Ido Levy emphasizes the particular success of U.S.-created special forces in missions against jihadist forces. But he cautions that BWT efforts cannot thrive without some U.S. ground presence and, as occurred in Afghanistan, would likely fail amid an outright American withdrawal.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Military Affairs, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Middle East and United States of America

16. Hamas at 35

Author:: Devorah Margolin
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A look back at the group’s track record and unchanging core ideology shows why its gestures toward democracy and inclusivity should not be mistaken for true moderation. On December 14, Hamas celebrated the thirty-fifth anniversary of its founding. In addition to unveiling a new logo, the group held a rally in Gaza City, where it showed off the gun of slain Israeli soldier Hadar Goldin, released numerous statements reiterating its goals, and hinted at future conflicts with Israel. Such hostile displays are no surprise given the course of the group’s ideological and political development over the past four decades.
Topic:: Economics, Terrorism, Reform, Democracy, Hamas, and Energy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

17. The Overseen Factors Impacting the Afghan Peace Process

Author:: Sahar Khan
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: The international community is focused on the ongoing intra-Afghan peace process, which has steadied despite several challenges. There are two developments, however, that will have a lasting impact on the process: The International Criminal Court’s investigation into war crimes committed by the Taliban, Afghan forces, and US forces, and the strategic evolution of the Taliban as a legitimate political actor.
Topic:: Security, International Law, Terrorism, Taliban, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, South Asia, and Eurasia

18. Pakistan Security Report 2020

Author:: Safdar Sial, Anam Fatima, Ahmed Ali, and Mikail Shaikh
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:: The year 2020 sustained the declining trend in the incidence of terrorist violence in Pakistan that has been ongoing since 2014. The statistics provided by Pakistan Security Report 2020 indicated a 36 percent decrease in the number of terrorist attacks this year, as compared to 2019; the number of people killed in these attacks also plummeted by 38 percent. However, these plummeting numbers do not suggest, in any way, that the threat of terrorism has been completely eliminated. While multiple factors have contributed, including continuous operational and surveillance campaigns by security forces, and some counter-extremism actions taken under the National Action Plan (NAP), in reducing terrorist violence at the tactical and operational levels, but the militant and sectarian groups have been becoming active again of late. Secondly, the underlying factors of religious extremism and persecution persist in the country, which could feed into terrorist violence and/or faith-based violence by individuals and mobs. While the incidence and level of terrorist violence can be measured, it is very hard to measure extremism and extremist trends in a society. Therefore, a reduction in terrorist violence should not be taken as a measure of a reduction in extremism.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:: Pakistan

19. Amidst Anti-COVID Protests, Far-Right Extremists Are Using a New Symbol: An All-Black American Flag

Author:: Grace Vaule
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: TRAC: Terrorism Research & Analysis Consortium
Abstract:: Currently, amidst a backdrop of COVID-related vaccine and mask mandates, far-right extremists in the United States are using another symbol: the all-black American flag.
Topic:: Terrorism, Violent Extremism, COVID-19, Political Extremism, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:: United States

20. The Dual Strategy Behind Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin’s (JNIM) Katiba Macina Territorial Expansion

Author:: Frida Bergström
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: TRAC: Terrorism Research & Analysis Consortium
Abstract:: The takeover of four distinct areas by the AQC affiliate, Jama’a Nusrat ul- Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) reflects an issue that is expanding exponentially into Mali’s neighbouring countries.
Topic:: Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Militant Islam, Political Extremism, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:: West Africa and Mali

21. Counterterrorism Yearbook 2021

Author:: Leanne Close and Daria Impiombato
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: ASPI is delighted to release its 5th edition of the Counterterrorism (CT) yearbook, edited by Leanne Close, APM and Daria Impiombato. The 2021 yearbook provides a comprehensive picture of the current global terrorism landscape. The yearbook's 29 authors found Covid-19—a key theme in most chapters—to have had an impact on global terrorism. However, pervasive online social media platforms have played a more significant role, increasing terrorists’ ability to radicalise and incite individuals to commit terrorist acts, as well as encouraging financial support to terrorist groups. The yearbook begins with an overview of current trends and the terrorism landscape in 2020 identified in the 8th Global Terrorism Index (GTI) produced by Australia’s Institute for Economics and Peace. As well as analysis of the impacts of Covid-19 on terrorist threats globally, several key themes emerge from the yearbook’s chapters, consistent with the trends identified in the GTI. These include the impact of social media and technology on terrorist events and radicalisation, and a nexus between terrorism and organised crime. One concerning example highlights the impact of natural disasters on violent extremism, with a study of 167 countries over 30 years from 1970, which found that an increase in deaths from natural disasters resulted in an increase in terrorism-related deaths and attacks in the following two years. Strong examples of prevention and strategies to counter violent extremism are outlined in the yearbook, providing governments and CT practitioners with contemporary analysis of current and emerging challenges and offering key policy recommendations to combat radicalisation, violent extremism and terrorism in all its forms.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:: Global Focus

22. Reviewing Jihadist Governance in the Sahel

Author:: Natasja Rupesinghe, Mikael Hiberg Naghizadeh, and Corentin Cohen
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The ways in which jihadist insurgents in the Sahel govern is rarely considered in the academic literature. They have often been portrayed as ‘Islamic terrorists’, who achieve their objectives by using brutal force against the civilian population and who finance their activities through criminal networks and activities. However, scattered empirical evidence reveals a different picture. Jihadist insurgents, like other insurgent groups, often use a variety of strategies to rule territory and populations. The scale, character and form of how such groups govern differs not only between countries but also at the sub-national level within the same group. Nevertheless, until recently jihadist insurgent governance in Africa and particularly the Sahel region has largely been overlooked. This synthesis reviews the existing literature on jihadist governance in West Africa, with a particular emphasis on the understudied region of the Sahel. The review is organised as follows: first, we clarify key concepts and provide definitions. Second, we provide a brief overview of Islam and politics in the Sahel, contextualising the rise of Salafist-jihadism as well as historical cases of jihadist governance. Third, we provide a brief overview of the literature and synthesise the existing research on jihadist insurgent governance in the Sahel. Fourth, we examine some key cases of jihadist governance in northern Mali, Nigeria and the Liptako-Gourma region straddling Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Finally, we conclude by summarising our findings, discussing the implications for the study of civil war and insurgency and consider avenues for future research.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Terrorism, Governance, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Africa

23. Economic Value of Peace 2021: Measuring the global economic impact of violence and conflict

Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: The comprehensive methodology includes 18 indicators covering the direct and indirect costs of violence, and the expenditures to contain and prevent violence. The model also includes a multiplier for the direct costs to account for the additional economic activity resulting from a redirection of these costs to more productive pursuits. The economic impact of violence provides an empirical basis to better understand the economic benefits resulting from improvements in peace. Estimates are provided for 163 countries and independent territories, covering over 99.5 per cent of the global population. It uses the best available data to calculate the overall impact. However, not all categories of violence have reliable data, therefore preventing their inclusion in the model. Some examples of costs excluded from the model are counter-terrorism and intelligence agency expenditures, insurance costs, lost business opportunities and family violence. As such, the estimates presented in this report are considered highly conservative. In 2019, the economic impact of violence decreased by $64 billion from the previous year. This was the equivalent of a 0.4 per cent decrease and was largely driven by reductions in Armed Conflict. This fall predominantly occurred in the Middle East and North Africa region and was driven by fewer terror attacks, conflict deaths, and population displacement costs. This is a continued reversal of previous periods where between 2012 and 2017, the global economic impact of violence rose by 12.2 per cent to peak at $14.8 trillion. This is the second consecutive year of improvement.
Topic:: Political Violence, Terrorism, Peacekeeping, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

24. A Fight by Other Means: Keeping the Peace with Colombia’s FARC

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Colombia’s 2016 peace deal was a landmark achievement, convincing the FARC guerrillas to disarm and enter civilian life. Yet much remains to be done to show insurgents that they can redress their grievances through ordinary politics. The country’s leaders should recommit to finishing the job.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

25. Syria: Shoring Up Raqqa’s Shaky Recovery

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: After suffering grievously under ISIS, and during the battles to defeat it, Raqqa is being rebuilt. The calm is tenuous, however. The U.S. and partners should work toward long-term stability in Syria’s north east, through investment and talks about sustainable governance and security arrangements.
Topic:: Terrorism, ISIS, Strategic Stability, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

26. Once a Jihadist, Always a Jihadist? A Deradicalization Program Seen from the Inside

Author:: Marc Hecker
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: France has traditionally taken a security-based approach to the fight against terror. It was a latecomer to the field of radicalization prevention and the establishment of disengagement programs aimed at jihadists. It only started to think seriously about the issue in 2013 and its first attempts involved certain irregularities. For that reason, deradicalization suffers from a persistent bad reputation in France. The disengagement and reintegration programs established since 2016—RIVE from 2016 until 2018 and PAIRS, which started in 2018 and is still running—have operated behind closed doors. Discreetness was preferred to overcommunication. This study—the result of a long-term field survey of the staff, participants, and partners of PAIRS—opens the black box of disengagement methods. It offers a nuanced assessment of these initiatives, which, after four years of operations, have produced reassuring results: among the dozens of terrorist offenders who have participated in RIVE and PAIRS in open custody, none have reoffended.
Topic:: Terrorism, Radicalization, Islamism, Jihad, and Deradicalization
Political Geography:: Europe and France

27. A transatlantic agenda for homeland security and resilience beyond COVID-19

Author:: Anna Wieslander
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has disclosed the importance of resilient power – a society’s capability to absorb unexpected major shocks, handle and adapt to these, and then, most importantly, bounce back. As the pandemic still rages, endurance has become a major challenge for individuals, institutions, companies, and societies. It emphasizes another dimension of resilience: it is not only about how fast society is able to bounce back and recover at a certain moment, but also how it can withstand repeated shocks over time. The pandemic also brought the notion of solidarity to the forefront and exposed the connection between strong resilience and solidarity in open societies. Solidarity was repeatedly tested within and between nations, as well as between different parts of society. Fragmentation and competition flourished amid weak resilience and discouraged tendencies toward cooperation, despite potential gains. To successfully handle modern challenges to homeland security and resilience, such as climate change and pandemics, there is no way around efficient cooperation. For resilience to be strong, it must be developed not only among states but also in partnership with the private sector, as resilience must be ensured for individuals, communities, private businesses, and public institutions, and at all levels of authority. Furthermore, the pandemic has heightened other threats to modern societies, including disinformation, cyber operations, attacks on election systems, and social media manipulation. Ultimately, these threats are targeted to undermine democracy itself. They differ in character, magnitude, and scope, but are often non-military. This new report, “A Transatlantic Agenda for Homeland Security and Resilience Beyond COVID-19”, highlights some of these modern challenges, which could be possible focus areas for transatlantic cooperation, as well as ideas for building and enhancing capabilities. This report is the result of a half-day online workshop held on January 28, 2021. This report aims to help shape a transatlantic agenda on homeland security and resilience that encompasses everything from policy and capabilities to future science and technology in a time when the transatlantic relationship is ideally positioned to be revitalized and deepened.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Climate Change, Terrorism, Infrastructure, European Union, Crisis Management, Resilience, COVID-19, Disinformation, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:: Europe, Eurasia, and United States of America

28. Arab Gulf States and the Situation in Afghanistan

Author:: Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Arab state authorities are refraining from making unequivocal declarations about the future of relations with Afghanistan after the Taliban took power. The priority of the Arab leadership in the Persian Gulf will be to prevent the destabilisation of Afghanistan and to influence the Afghan government policy towards terrorist organisations. Given the convergence of EU and Arab state goals related to countering the threat of terrorism in the country, the Union could include them in the announced regional platform for cooperation on Afghanistan.
Topic:: International Relations, Terrorism, Taliban, and European Union
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, South Asia, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

29. Pakistan’s Destabilization Playbook: Khalistan Separatist Activism Within the US

Author:: Aparna Pande, Husain Haqqani, C Christine Fair, Michael Rubin, Seth Oldmixon, and Clay Westrope
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Hudson Institute’s South and Central Asia Program assembled a group of South Asia experts to evaluate the fifty-five interlinked Kashmiri and Khalistani groups currently operating within the United States and the possibility that these groups receive funding, support, and military training from Pakistan, have ties to militant and terrorist groups in India, and could detrimentally impact US foreign policy in South Asia. The activities of Khalistani groups located in North America should be investigated, within the limits prescribed by law, to prevent a reoccurrence of the violence orchestrated by the Khalistan movement in the 1980s. During that period, along with numerous attacks on civilians, the Khalistan movement was linked to the 1985 bombing of Air India Flight 182 from Montreal to London that left 329 dead and the failed bombing of an Air India jet in Tokyo on the same day. The US government has shown reluctance to act on intelligence from India concerning Pakistan-supported Khalistan militancy, largely due to Pakistan’s role as the artery providing logistical support to the US military mission in Afghanistan following 9/11. Compounding the issue, China has blocked the designation of Pakistan-based terrorists under the United States’ terrorist-designation process within the United Nations Security Council.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Political Activism, Separatism, and Destabilization
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, and United States of America

30. A Course Correction for the Sahel Stabilisation Strategy

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Since 2013, when it sent troops to Mali, France has led international efforts to root out Islamist militancy from the Sahel. Yet the jihadist threat has grown. Paris and its partners should reorient their military-centred approach toward helping improve governance in the region.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Violent Extremism, Political stability, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Europe and France

31. Overkill: Reforming the Legal Basis for the U.S. War on Terror

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: After the 9/11 attacks, the U.S. Congress passed a use of force authorisation that successive presidents have used to expand military action ever further. As part of our series The Legacy of 9/11 and the “War on Terror”, we argue that Washington should enact a new statute that promotes transparency and narrows the war’s scope.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, War on Terror, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

32. Mali: Enabling Dialogue with the Jihadist Coalition JNIM

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Authorities in Mali seem to be considering negotiations with Jamaat Nusratul Islam wal-Muslimin, the country’s largest Islamist insurgency. Pursuing talks will be a tall order, given the stakes and the group’s al-Qaeda connection. Both the government and the militants should begin with incremental steps.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Terrorism, Conflict, Violence, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: Africa and Mali

33. Radical Right Narratives and Norwegian Counter-narratives in the Decade of Utøya and Bærum Solo-actor Attacks

Author:: Mette Wiggen
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hedayah
Abstract:: This country report, written by Dr. Mette Wiggen, is one of the outputs of the CARR-Hedayah Radical Right Counter Narratives Project, a year-long project under the STRIVE Global Program at Hedayah funded by the European Union and implemented by the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right (CARR). The overall project creates one of the first comprehensive online toolkits for practitioners and civil society engaged in radical right extremist counter narrative campaigns. It uses online research to map narratives in nine countries and regions, including Australia, Canada, Germany, Hungary, New Zealand, Norway, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and the United States. It also proposes counter narratives for these countries and regions and advises on how to conduct such campaigns in an effective manner.
Topic:: Civil Society, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Political Extremism, Civil Society Organizations, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:: United States, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Canada, Norway, Germany, Hungary, Australia, and New Zealand

34. From Direct Action to Terrorism: Canadian Radical Right Narratives and Counter-narratives at a Time of Volatility

Author:: William Allchorn
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hedayah
Abstract:: This country report, written by Dr. William Allchorn, is one of the outputs of the CARR-Hedayah Radical Right Counter Narratives Project, a year-long project under the STRIVE Global Program at Hedayah funded by the European Union and implemented by the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right (CARR). The overall project creates one of the first comprehensive online toolkits for practitioners and civil society engaged in radical right extremist counter narrative campaigns. It uses online research to map narratives in nine countries and regions, including Australia, Canada, Germany, Hungary, New Zealand, Norway, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and the United States. It also proposes counter narratives for these countries and regions and advises on how to conduct such campaigns in an effective manner.
Topic:: Terrorism, Ideology, Radical Right, Political Extremism, Narrative, and Direct Action
Political Geography:: Canada and North America

35. Accidental Allies: The US–Syrian Democratic Forces Partnership Against the Islamic State

Author:: Michael Knights and Wladimir van Wilgenburg
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: To some, America's partnership with the SDF exemplified an economy-of-force effort that minimized U.S. casualties and wrested control of northeast Syria from the Islamic State. To others, it was a cautionary tale about a U.S. military hoodwinked into working with a terrorist group. The story of America’s military and political partnership with the Syrian Democratic Forces is a controversial one. To some, it is a shining example of an economy-of-force effort that minimized U.S. casualties, wrested control of northeast Syria from the Islamic State, and improved the area’s general political trajectory. To others, it is a cautionary tale of a U.S. military that was hoodwinked by a charismatic and capable partner closely tied to a U.S.-designated terrorist group, the Kurdistan Workers Party, with Washington deliberately averting its eyes from the strategic, political, and moral costs of the partnership. The subject deserves a neutral, data-led investigation that follows the facts wherever they lead. In this volume—copublished by The Washington Institute and I.B. Tauris—military expert Michael Knights and journalist Wladimir van Wilgenburg dive deep into the U.S. relationship with the SDF. The study benefited from intensive debates on sourcing, objectivity, and the need to probe uncomfortable issues. The findings cast light not only on the successes and shortcomings of this particular alliance, but also on how Washington might most profitably pursue “by, with, and through” operations with other forces in the future.
Topic:: Security, Politics, Terrorism, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and Military
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

36. Back to Basics: U.S.-Iraq Security Cooperation in the Post-Combat Era

Author:: Michael Knights and Alex Almeida
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Questions about the viability of the Iraqi security forces—brought into sharp focus by the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan—require a data-led analysis of where the forces are today and what mix of U.S., NATO, and European efforts can help them thrive in the future. The August collapse of the Afghan National Security Forces shook the world’s faith in U.S. security cooperation, prompting hard questions about similar arrangements with Iraq. In a country where the United States has been training forces for two decades, officials need straight answers. How resilient are today’s U.S.-supported Iraqi security forces, and could they operate with gradually reduced American support? What kind of near-term Iraqi force development should the coalition credibly expect to see? And how should U.S.-led security cooperation evolve after the December “transition of mission” to a non-combat role? In this urgently applicable Policy Focus, longtime ISF watchers Michael Knights and Alex Almeida provide a data-led analysis of where Iraq’s security forces are today, how they will look tomorrow, and what mixture of U.S., NATO, and European efforts can ensure the best result commensurate with American interests. The roadmap they outline shows how Baghdad can ultimately achieve enduring victory over the Islamic State and overmatch the domestic opponents of a sovereign, stable, and democratic Iraq.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Politics, Terrorism, and Shia
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and United States of America

37. A Blurred Line Between Civil Society and Terrorism: Examining Charges of NGOs Funding the PFLP

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Israeli evidence could reveal a troubling reality wherein groups publicly defend the human rights of some people while supporting acts of terrorism targeting others. On October 19, Israel designated six Palestinian NGOs as terrorist groups affiliated with the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, causing a firestorm among international civil society and human rights organizations. While such action is inherently controversial, any assessment must consider the underlying evidence, which here emerged from a series of investigations pointing to massive fraud. The effort drew on various sources, including classified intelligence, seized materials, and statements made by arrested employees. And it cast light on high-profile cases such as the August 2019 murder of Israeli teen Rina Shnerb, whose killers were employed by one of the designated groups. In this groundbreaking Policy Note, counterterrorism expert Matthew Levitt closely analyzes Israel’s NGO designations. In doing so, he validates U.S., European, and international requests for an explanation, but simultaneously cautions that the evidence—if proven even partially true—could reveal a troubling reality wherein Palestinian NGOs publicly defend the human rights of some people while supporting terrorist acts against others.
Topic:: Civil Society, Terrorism, NGOs, and Palestinians
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

38. Professionalizing the Iraqi Army: US Engagement after the Islamic State

Author:: C. Anthony Pfaff
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Security cooperation with Iraq remains a critical component of the US-Iraq relationship. Despite neighboring Iran’s ability to limit US political and economic engagement, Iraq still seeks US assistance to develop its military and to combat resurgent terrorist organizations. This monograph provides a historical and cultural basis from which to understand the limitations and potential for US cooperation with Iraq’s armed forces.
Topic:: Security, Politics, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Islamic State, and Economy
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

39. The India-Pakistan Rivalry in Afghanistan

Author:: Zachary Constantino
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The most consequential regional competition for influence in Afghanistan is the contest between India and Pakistan. Indian leaders strive to cultivate Afghanistan as a natural partner and reliable bulwark against Islamic militants, including Pakistan-backed groups, while Islamabad seeks to counter what it regards as an Indo-Afghan nexus to encircle and weaken Pakistan. This report examines the interests and strategies of both countries in Afghanistan within the context of peace negotiations and developments in Kashmir.
Topic:: Terrorism, Conflict, Peace, Strategic Competition, and Proxy War
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, India, and Kashmir

40. Reforming the Department of Homeland Security Through Enhanced Oversight & Accountability

Author:: Carrie Cordero
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: In November 2002, 14 months after the attacks of September 11, 2001, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS or the department) was created by Congress to make America safer from terrorism.1 At the time, the policy focus was on international terrorism, in particular al Qaeda. Since then, not only has the terrorism landscape evolved—from al Qaeda and its affiliates to ISIS to the present increased attention to domestic terrorism linked to white supremacist violence2—but the scope and complexity of national security threats have evolved. The new department centralized border security, immigration enforcement, transportation security, emergency management, and critical infrastructure protection, plus additional functions, with an intent to protect against future terrorist attack. The fundamental activities of the department, however, have always been broader than terrorism. And over the years, attention to the department has quickly shifted depending on the critical events of the time, whether a natural disaster, such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005, or persistent cyberattacks and other malign cyberactivity since the mid-2000s, or the emergence of a global pandemic.3 Meanwhile, due to a variety of factors, the size and complexity of DHS’s law enforcement functions have grown, while recent attention has focused primarily on the border and immigration functions. The department is arguably the most operational agency in the federal government in terms of its routine activities that affect and directly touch millions of people each day. These varying and disparate missions across the department are focused domestically and therefore require substantial attention to whether and how they are carried out in accordance with law and respect for constitutional protections. This report, issued as part of a Center for a New American Security (CNAS) project4 on enhancing DHS oversight and accountability, posits that 18 years into the department’s existence, the functions of border security and immigration enforcement, as well as the law enforcement functions of Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in particular, have grown disproportionately large in size and broad in scope, without the necessary oversight and accountability structures that must accompany such activities.5 And DHS’s border and immigration functions are under tremendous strain as they are tasked with increased policy directives, humanitarian challenges on the southern border, intense political pressure, and growing public scrutiny about these functions. The department is in severe need of legislative attention and policy coordination. If it does not reform to address the issues identified in this report, it is likely the department will face calls for partial or full dismantlement under a future administration.6 Such a result would undo nearly 20 years of effort to better protect the nation from terrorism and emerging homeland threats, and risk returning to a pre-9/11 era of dis-jointed homeland security coordination.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Homeland Security, Accountability, and Oversight
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

41. The Terrorist Lists: An Examination of the U.S. Government’s Counterterrorism Designations Efforts

Author:: Seth Loertscher, Daniel Milton, Bryan C. Price, and Cynthia Loertscher
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: After the attacks of September 2001, the U.S. government grappled with ways to apply all aspects of its national power against the terrorist groups it found itself combating militarily. On the diplomatic and financial fronts, much of this increased effort revolved around the sanctioning and designating of terrorist groups and individual terrorist actors, resulting in a drastic increase of the number of individuals and groups which were branded with the term “terrorist.” Yet despite the application of these tools for almost 20 years, or longer in some cases, little work has been done to understand the impact of these programs. This report examines two sanctioning efforts the U.S. government has employed against terrorist actors: the Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list and the designation of individuals as Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs) under the authority granted by Executive Order 13224. Although the specific purposes of each of these programs differ from one another, ultimately both represent a non-kinetic approach to counterterrorism that relies on the application of diplomatic and/or financial statecraft. The examination of each of these programs in this report has two general goals. The first is to provide an overview of the program and descriptive statistics regarding its implementation. The second is to provide some form of assessment regarding the impact that these programs have on terrorist groups and individuals. In accomplishing these two goals, the authors relied exclusively on open-source information collected by researchers at the Combating Terrorism Center (CTC). This report attempts to provide a deeper understanding of the impacts of these tools, in addition to highlighting some of the structural limitations and gaps in the application of counterterrorism sanctions.
Topic:: Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Hezbollah, Boko Haram, Hamas, and Abu Sayyaf
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Global Focus, and United States of America

42. Rising in the East: A Regional Overview of the Islamic State’s Operations in Southeast Asia

Author:: Amira Jadoon, Nakissa Jahanbani, and Charmaine Willis
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: In 2016, the Islamic State acknowledged a series of pledges from Southeast Asian militant groups by declaring Isnilon Hapilon of the Abu Sayyaf Group to be the regional emir and encouraging local supporters to travel to the Philippines to wage jihad. Since 2016, a wave of Islamic State-linked attacks, including attempted and successful suicide attacks across the region, as well as the Marawi siege in 2017 by Islamic State-linked groups, has raised significant regional security concerns. Critical questions about the growing influence of the Islamic State in Southeast Asia, the interconnectedness of Islamic State affiliates, and the risks associated with returning fighters from Iraq and Syria remain unanswered. In the first of a four-part series on the Islamic State in Southeast Asia, this report sheds light on the overarching characteristics of Islamic State-linked operations across Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines between 2014 and 2019, highlighting how the Islamic State’s arrival has affected regional militancy. Drawing on open-source materials, the report maps the characteristics and regional dispersion of Islamic State-linked activity in the region, providing regional and country-level context for the nature of the threat. Additionally, the report identifies six regional militant groups as the Islamic State’s operational affiliates, defined as groups that have claimed attacks concurrently with the Islamic State. The findings of the report draw attention to a marked increase in the use of Islamic State-linked suicide attacks and lethality in 2019, and significant numbers of failed and foiled attacks by Islamic State-affiliated or -inspired individuals in Indonesia and Malaysia. While the most important dimension of the Islamic State threat may be the existing militant infrastructure offered by its operational alliances in the Philippines and Indonesia, the threat in Malaysia exists in the form of independent plotters and radicalized individuals who present a pool of potential recruits for existing networks of militants in the region.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Terrorism, Non State Actors, Counter-terrorism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Malaysia, Asia, and Philippines

43. Small Groups, Big Weapons: The Nexus of Emerging Technologies and Weapons of Mass Destruction Terrorism

Author:: Stephen Hummel and F. John Burpo
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: Historically, only nation-states have had the capacity and resources to develop weapons of mass destruction (WMD) due to the significant capital, infrastructure, and intellectual capacity required to develop and maintain a WMD program. In recent years, however, this paradigm has been shifting, particularly for non-state actors. The commercialization of emerging technologies is reducing the financial, intellectual, and material barriers required for WMD development and employment. This report surveys three emerging technologies—synthetic biology, additive manufacturing (commonly known as 3D printing), and unmanned aerial systems—and examines the nexus of each with nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons agent proliferation. It examines how non-state actors might use these emerging technologies to overcome traditional barriers against the development and employment of WMD. This product, a joint collaboration of the Combating Terrorism Center and the Department of Chemistry and Life Science at West Point, is a timely primer for policymakers, scientists, and security specialists concerned with the impact of emerging technologies on WMD development and terrorists’ capabilities broadly.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Weapons, and Innovation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

44. Broken, but Not Defeated: An Examination of State-led Operations against Islamic State Khorasan in Afghanistan and Pakistan (2015-2018)

Author:: Amira Jadoon and Andrew Mines
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: Since its official formation in January 2015, the Islamic State’s affiliate in Afghanistan and Pakistan has risen to prominence as one of its most dangerous affiliates, making it one of the world’s top four deadliest militant organizations in 2018. Islamic State Khorasan’s (ISK) ascendency, however, has not come without heavy costs. Since 2015, a variety of state-led operations against ISK have inflicted substantial manpower and leadership losses upon the group across Afghanistan and Pakistan. This report is the first to conduct a systematic review of operations against ISK between 2015 and 2018 to answer the following questions: what is the nature and level of manpower losses incurred by ISK in various campaigns against the group? How have these operations altered the level of the ISK threat, and what do they reveal about ISK’s militant base? Finally, how have these operations affected ISK’s operational capacity? This report draws on open-source materials to assess the above questions, and provides detailed information on the various state-led operations against ISK in Afghanistan and Pakistan and the group’s associated costs in terms of losses of both leadership and other ISK-linked individuals. As this report demonstrates, intense targeting of ISK in both countries has resulted in substantial losses for the group; between 2015 and 2018, ISK’s losses amounted to the killing, capture, or surrender of well over 10,000 ISK-linked individuals and over 500 militants in leadership roles, predominantly in Afghanistan. A parallel examination of the group’s losses and its operational activity indicates that while state-led operations have curtailed ISK’s overall number of attacks and its geographical expansion, the group has retained its ability to conduct highly lethal attacks, as evidenced by recently claimed attacks in Kabul in late February and early March 2020. The report’s findings also imply that one of ISK’s key strengths, which has allowed it to survive the onslaught of state-led operations, is its access to a steady supply of experienced militants on both sides of the border that allows it to replace its top leaders and replenish its human capital.
Topic:: Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia

45. Taking al Qaeda Seriously in Afghanistan: Policy Options for the United States

Author:: Hannan Hussain
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: Despite limited numerical strength, al Qaeda exercises sufficient leverage over contending Taliban factions and continues to cultivate an enduring interest in attacking U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan. To break the al Qaeda-Taliban nexus, Washington must upgrade its verification metrics, and initiate COVID-19 recovery assistance that limits al Qaeda’s influence-building in Afghanistan.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Terrorism, Taliban, Al Qaeda, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, South Asia, North America, and United States of America

46. The Future of US-Kazakhstan Relations

Author:: Wilder Alejandro Sanchez
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: Since achieving its independence after the fall of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan has maintained warm relations with the United States. The country regards the United States both as a potential source for trade and investment and as a partner to balance the influence of Russia and China in Central Asia, a perspective which underlines the importance of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s February visit to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. During the visit, Pompeo was generous in his praise for Kazakhstan and highlighted the importance of bilateral ties, while criticizing China’s detention of hundreds of thousands of Uyghurs, Kyrgyz, and ethnic Kazakhs in so-called “re-education” camps.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, War, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, and Trade
Political Geography:: Russia, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, North America, and United States of America

47. The COVID-19 Pandemic: Counterterrorism Practitioners’ Assessments

Author:: James Wither and Richard Masek
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:: The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in February 2020 arguably created the greatest global security challenge since 1945. Faced with this unanticipated threat, scholars and practitioners from the security and counterterrorism fields have struggled to understand and assess the impact of the pandemic on global and domestic terrorism.1 Many terrorist groups and individual extremists reacted with enthusiasm to the pandemic. Salafi-jihadist and far-right extremists, in particular, claimed that the pandemic vindicated their very different ideological standpoints and called for attacks while affected states were at their most vulnerable. However, outside of areas already impacted by armed conflict like the Sahel, there has not been a rise in terrorist attacks during the pandemic. Terrorists of all kinds have stepped up their propaganda, hoping to influence anxious people largely confined to their homes by lockdowns and compelled to spend more time on the Internet and social media. However, the extent to which terrorists have successfully attracted new converts to their cause or active recruits during the crisis still remains uncertain. The pandemic has also raised the specter of bio-terrorism, as there were fears that terrorists might try to use COVID–19 as a biological weapon. Early in the crisis, some extremists used the internet to encourage infected individuals to spread the virus in public places, but there is little evidence of such activities being carried out. As regards more sophisticated attacks, some terrorist groups in the past have aspired to employ bio-terrorism, but the necessary weapons have always proved too difficult for terrorists to successfully develop or deliver. Despite the calls for attacks on social media, the pandemic’s lockdowns, increased surveillance, the ban on gatherings, and travel restrictions, coupled with a heavy police and military presence on the ground in some cities have created a challenging environment for terrorist operations. But as governments continue to focus their efforts on combating the virus, normal security protocols may be reduced or abandoned. In most countries, the security services have been drawn directly into efforts to counter the pandemic and to an extent have been affected by social distancing and other restrictions employed to combat the virus. There are also concerns that international cooperation to combat terrorism will be reduced as countries focus more narrowly on domestic priorities. Many governments have resorted to emergency legislation to allow the police to enforce lockdowns and social isolation. This is normal behavior for autocratic governments, but unprecedented in liberal democracies, at least during peacetime. Repressive legislation allows intrusive surveillance, detention, and prevents freedom of assembly and movement. Although traditionally there has been no direct link between poverty and terrorism, socio-economic hardships caused by the pandemic are also likely to be severe, especially in the developing world. Government repression is a common trigger for acts of terrorism as it can turn already aggrieved citizens into violent extremists. To date, the COVID–19 pandemic has highlighted governments’ lack of preparedness, social inequalities and macro-economic failings. It would be premature, however, to conclude that the coronavirus crisis will inspire new forms of anti-state terrorism or turn largely non-violent anti-globalization and environmentalist groups into violent extremists. In the longer term, it remains to be seen whether counterterrorism will retain the priority it has been given since 9/11 in terms of financial, technical, and manpower resources. Public health as a national security priority may command a much greater share of resources than ever before. Given the impact of the COVID–19 pandemic on public finances, budget cuts to the security services may be more severe than after the financial crisis in 2008-2009, which could create new vulnerabilities for terrorist groups to exploit. The aim of this report is to provide further insights into the issues outlined above by providing data on the preliminary impact of COVID–19 supplied by over 400 military and civilian counterterrorism professionals surveyed by the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies’ (GCMC) Program in Terrorism and Security Studies (PTSS) faculty team.
Topic:: Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

48. Pakistan Security Report 2019

Author:: Safdar Sial, Muhammad Amir Rana, Umar Farooq, Anam Fatima, Muhammad Akba Notezai, and Najam U Din
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:: In 2019, Pakistan witnessed a further decline in the number of terrorist incidents and consequent casualties. The statistics of Pakistan Security Report 2019 show that terrorist attacks this year decreased by around 13 percent as compared to 2018, and the number of people killed in these attacks plummeted by 40pc. Indeed, there has been a gradual decrease in terrorist attacks and casualties since 2009 (with the exception of 2013, when a surge in sectarian violence mainly contributed to a rise in attacks and casualties). Continuous anti-militant operational and surveillance campaigns by security forces and police counterterrorism departments, as well as some counter-extremism actions taken under the National Action Plan, have apparently helped sustain that declining trend 2013 onwards. However, these plummeting numbers do not suggest, in any way, that the threat of terrorism has been completely eliminated. Certainly, most terrorist groups have been weakened but they are still present in physical and virtual spaces.
Topic:: National Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:: Pakistan

49. Terrorism, Counter-terrorism and Violent Extremism

Author:: Peace and Security (GIWPS) Georgetown Institute for Women
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:: The following is material to consider for your syllabus. Specifically, there is: Scholarly writing on terrorism, counter-terrorism and violent extremism written by diverse scholars and experts; Scholarly writing providing geographic variety and geographically varied perspectives; Studies and analyses examining diversity, equity and inclusion-related dimensions of terrorism, counter-terrorism and violent extremism.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, and Women
Political Geography:: Global Focus

50. Terrorism is terrorism: The Christchurch terror attack from an Israeli CT perspective

Author:: Boaz Ganor
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Print this page SR155 Terrorism is terrorism - banner 19 MAY 2020 Terrorism is terrorism: The Christchurch terror attack from an Israeli CT perspective By Professor Boaz Ganor This report by Professor Boaz Ganor examines the different phases of the Christchurch terror attack, its similarities to and differences from Islamic jihadist terror attacks, and the lessons to be learnt for preventing, thwarting and managing such attacks, based on Israeli counter-terrorism experience. Lone-wolf attacks have become a widespread phenomenon in many countries, some have ended with a limited number of casualties. The 2019 Christchurch terror attack resulted in dozens of casualties. This report rigorously examines each phase of the attack to assess where points of intervention may have been overlooked and what can be learned from this experience to evolve counter-terrorism strategy and methods. Professor Ganor shares key lessons from the Christchurch attack that will help prevent or thwart future attacks through social media intelligence, artificial intelligence, machine learning and big data, security, gun regulation, damage mitigation and victim treatment, post attack activity, and international cooperation.
Topic:: National Security, Terrorism, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: Israel, Palestine, Australia, Australia/Pacific, and New Zealand

51. Reframing Islamic State: Trends and themes in contemporary messaging

Author:: Telli Betül Karacan
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Studies of IS propaganda show that it uses both new and old, proven methods to recruit members and conquer new territories following the loss of its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, Non State Actors, Fragile States, Islamic State, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, India, Asia, North Africa, and Syria

52. Pandora’s Box in Syria: Anticipating negative externalities of a re-entrenching regime

Author:: Samar Batrawi
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: During 2019, the original Syrian conflict entered its closing phases, except for the battlefields of Idlib and in the north east. As a result, conflict dynamics have become somewhat easier to read, as the regime and its key allies have shifted towards a triumphalist ‘post-war’ narrative and corresponding governance styles, deal-making and decision-making. These developments can be witnessed in three interlinked spheres: security, civil, and political economic practices. Together, they largely form the Assad regime’s political economy, which – although poorly understood due to limited access – is crucial to understand to assess the negative externalities likely to result from its wartime survival and re-entrenchment. The paper analyses six such externalities: 1. risk of conflict relapse due to economic pressures 2. the politics of refugees 3. risks and instrumentalisation of terrorism 4. regional instability 5. humanitarian culpability 6. deterioration of the international legal order. These externalities are interconnected and emerge from the political economy of the regime – the accumulation of its security, civil and political economic practices. Their nature and volume suggest that the Syrian civil war will plague its neighbors, as well as Europe, for a long time to come. These externalities also focus our attention on the fact that adequate containment strategies should be designed as a matter of urgency, to limit their negative impact.
Topic:: Security, International Law, Political Economy, Terrorism, Refugees, Conflict, Syrian War, and Bashar al-Assad
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, and Idlib

53. The Impact of COVID-19 on the Terrorist Threat in the EU

Author:: Arkadiusz Legieć
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: According to Europol data, in 2019 the decline in the number of attacks and the activity of terrorist organisations continued in the EU, with the exception of extreme right-wing groups. The COVID-19 pandemic has limited the possibilities for terrorist organisations to operate. In the short term, the terrorist threat to the EU will continue to decline. However, terrorists will adapt to the new conditions. As a result of the pandemic, structural problems in Europe’s neighbourhood will worsen and an economic crisis is expected within the EU itself. Such conditions may favuor the activity of extremists (both Islamic and far-right), increasing the threat of terrorism for the EU in the long term.
Topic:: Terrorism, European Union, COVID-19, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:: Europe

54. A New Jihadist Front in Mozambique

Author:: Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In August, ISIS-linked Muslim rebels in Mozambique seized the strategic port of Mocímboa da Praia, located near gas installations in the Cabo Delgado province. The extremist offensive may spoil development opportunities in a country that is one of Poland’s main trading partners in Africa.
Topic:: Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, Trade, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Africa, Poland, and Mozambique

55. After the Storm: Post-Pandemic Trends in the Southern Mediterranean

Author:: Andrei Kortunov, Paola Magri, Ines Abdel Razek, Andrey Chuprygin, Chiara Lovotti, Matteo Villa, Elena Corradi, Ivan Bocharov, and Ruslan Mamedov
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: The Mediterranean region has faced a significant number of challenges that have stemmed from turbulent events taking place on its Southern shores: conflicts and instability, the migration crisis, disruptions of regional value chains, souring regional relations, and foreign power interferences that have severely affected the region. The Covid-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on the Southern Mediterranean, but the health crisis had ambiguous effects on the underlying economic, social, and political trends of the region. It has exposed and exacerbated much of the previous sources of tension and, obscured many of them as public attention moved towards facing the public health emergency. Will the Covid-19 pandemic spur governments and civil societies to action? Or will it just serve as another smokescreen behind which to hide the region's longstanding problems?
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, Migration, Terrorism, Conflict, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Libya, Palestine, North Africa, Lebanon, Syria, and Mediterranean

56. Socio-Economic Challenges and the Impact of Regional Dynamics on Jordan: Employment, Social Cohesion, and International Cooperation – Policy Briefs from the Region and Europe

Author:: Dina Fakoussa and Laura Lale Kabis-Kechrid
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Jordan’s stability is severely challenged by socio-economic hardship. The country is plagued by high un-employment rates, an alarming debt-to-GDP ratio of around 94 percent, corruption, and dismal social ser-vices. The fight against terrorism has also resulted in further infringement of rights such as freedom of expression. These grievances have led to a series of protests and strikes in the past two years; the latest strike by teachers has had a far-reaching impact on the public.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Terrorism, Employment, Economy, Freedom of Expression, Protests, Unemployment, and Social Cohesion
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and Jordan

57. Stabilising the Sahel. The Role of International Military Operations

Author:: Kalev Stoicescu
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: The key question of this analysis is whether EU and/or NATO allies, including Estonia, would be willing and able to continue to support international efforts in Sahel (including military operations and missions – MINUSMA, EUTM and Barkhane), in particular following the Covid-19 pandemic. It is addressed to civilian and military decision makers and experts, especially in the countries that contribute to international military operations and missions in the Sahel.
Topic:: Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Terrorism, Military Affairs, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: Africa and Sahel

58. Global Terrorism Index 2020: Measuring the impact of terrorism

Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: The GTI report is produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) using data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and other sources. Data for the GTD is collected and collated by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) at the University of Maryland. The GTD contains over 170,000 terrorist incidents for the period 1970 to 2019. In 2019, deaths from terrorism fell for the fifth consecutive year, after peaking in 2014. The total number of deaths fell by 15.5 per cent to 13,826. The fall in deaths was mirrored by a reduction in the impact of terrorism, with 103 countries recording an improvement on their GTI score, compared to 35 that recorded a deterioration. The full GTI score takes into account not only deaths, but also incidents, injuries, and property damage from terrorism, over a five-year period. The largest fall in the impact of terrorism occurred in Afghanistan, which recorded 1,654 fewer deaths from terrorism in 2018, a 22.4 per cent decrease from the prior year. However, Afghanistan remains the country most impacted by terrorism, after overtaking Iraq in 2018.
Topic:: Political Violence, Economics, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and Peace
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Global Focus

59. Preparing the Global Counterterrorism Forum for the Next Decade

Author:: Eric Rosand
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In the two decades since the 9/11 attacks, terrorist networks have become more global and interconnected even as they remain locally tethered. The transnational and localized nature of the threat underscores the continued importance of international cooperation in all aspects of a response. This report explores the work of the Global Counterterrorism Forum, launched in 2011 to energize such cooperation, and how best to position it for an effective and far-reaching future.
Topic:: Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

60. Leaders under Fire: Defending Colombia’s Front Line of Peace

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Murders of Colombian grassroots activists are increasing at an alarming rate. The killers seek to sabotage the country’s 2016 peace agreement and the rural economic reform it promised. Bogotá should step up prosecution of these crimes while pushing to improve social conditions in the countryside.
Topic:: Economics, Terrorism, Political Activism, Reform, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

61. The West Bank’s Area C: Israel’s Eastern Line of Defense

Author:: Gershon Hacohen
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: This study explores the strategic-military implications of the establishment of a Palestinian state along the pre-June 1967 lines. Its central thesis is that the creation of such a state, on the heels of the IDF’s total withdrawal from the West Bank, will not only deprive Israel of defensible borders but will almost certainly lead to the advent of a terrorist entity like the one created in the Gaza Strip – at a stone’s throw from the Israeli heartland.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Self Determination, and Occupation
Political Geography:: Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and West Bank

62. Global Terrorism Index 2019: Measuring the impact of terrorism

Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: The GTI report is produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) using data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and other sources. Data for the GTD is collected and collated by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) at the University of Maryland. The GTD contains over 170,000 terrorist incidents for the period 1970 to 2017. Deaths from terrorism fell for the fourth consecutive year, after peaking in 2014. The decline in deaths corresponds with the military successes against ISIL and Boko Haram, with the total number of deaths falling by 15.2 per cent between 2017 and 2018 to 15,952. The largest fall occurred in Iraq, which recorded 3,217 fewer deaths from terrorism in 2018, a 75 per cent decrease from the prior year. For the first time since 2003, Iraq is no longer the country most impacted by terrorism.
Topic:: Political Violence, Terrorism, Military Affairs, Counter-terrorism, ISIS, ISIL, Violence, War on Terror, and Peace
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, North Africa, and Global Focus

63. Pakistan Security Report 2018

Author:: Muhammad Amir Rana, Safdar Sial, Ihsan Ghani, Ali Sher Khalti, Farhan Zahid, Zia Ur Rehman, Najam U Din, Ershad Mahmud, and Muhammad Akba Notezai
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:: Despite a 29% decline in terrorist attacks in 2018, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and its associated groups, which now includes ISIS’s local chapter, remains the most potent threat. They were followed by nationalist-insurgent groups, especially in Balochistan. Two suicide attacks by a Baloch secessionist group in 2018 are alarming, but these should not forego attempts of reconciling them, which National Action Plan (NAP) clearly calls upon. Any attempt of mainstreaming banned outfits should be undertaken by a proper mechanism, so as not to be seen as excluding those already mainstreamed. These are some of the major findings of the Pakistan Security Report 2018.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:: Pakistan

64. Prospects of a Settlement with the Afghan Taliban: Exit, peace and governance from the Taliban perspective

Author:: Mona Kanwal Sheikh and Amina Khan
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: While the Taliban continue to display strength through lethal attacks in Afghanistan, some important steps have also been taken to find a settlement. Interviews with Taliban leaders, commanders and foot soldiers highlight an unprecedented momentum, calling for the international community to identify ways to support the Afghan peace and reconciliation process. Afghanistan continues to face harsh challenges. Even though the Taliban remain united under their current leadership, significant internal developments have taken place, including defections and divisions, but also their changing approach towards the future of Afghanistan. The Taliban interviewed for this report display a high degree of pragmatism towards their original vision of an emirate, and the report questions whether radical opposition to democracy truly defines their identity. Instead it appears that their primary raison d’être is the liberation of Afghanistan, and that they do not reject the idea of elections. They are less concerned with sectarian interpretations or resistance to democracy than to ending the ’US occupation’ and the practice of decisions being ’taken by the occupiers’. Positive developments in the recent past, including overtures by the Afghan government and a willingness on the part of both the US and the Taliban to engage directly with each other, indicate moderate progress towards a negotiated settlement. The report, based on interviews and secondary sources, will be launched at a seminar hosted by DIIS on January 30, 2019. It is authored by senior researcher Mona Kanwal Sheikh and Amina Khan, a PhD scholar focusing on the Afghan Taliban.
Topic:: Terrorism, Treaties and Agreements, Taliban, and Peace
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, South Asia, North America, and United States of America

65. Breaking the Cycle: Iraq following the military defeat of Islamic State

Author:: Maria-Louise Clausen
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Despite the Iraqi Security Forces’ success in the military defeat of Islamic State (IS) and reconquering of territory seized by IS in 2014, the Iraqi state faces substantial challenges. These challenges have been exacerbated by IS, but did not emerge with IS and will therefore also not disappear with the defeat of IS. This DIIS Report underlines the fragmentation and policization of the security sector as a concern. Although the continued threat from IS has a destabilizing impact on the Iraqi state, the report especially points to the role of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF: an umbrella term for more than 50 armed groups that mobilized against IS in 2014), the sustained focus on identity politics and the pressure on the Iraqi state as key issues for the rebuilding and stabilization of Iraq. The presence of PMFs in Iraq is a challenge to the Iraqi state’s monopoly of violence and the PMFs continue to commit violations with impunity. Moreover, the PMFs (Popular Mobilization Forces) are capitalizing on their role in the defeat of Islamic State to increase their political role. Finally, despite the recent movement towards issue-based politics, identity remains a vital element in Iraqi politics, as seen in the continued practice of power-sharing between Kurds, Shias, and Sunnis. This combined with the Iraqi population’s general lack of trust in the political system challenges reconstruction. Nonetheless, the report asserts that there is a window of opportunity for Iraq, that should be seized by the Iraqi elite and the international community to engage in the difficult process of reconstruction and reconciliation. The report provides a brief overview of some of the main challenges facing Iraq that must be dealt with if Iraq is to break the cycle of violence that has haunted the country for decades.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Democratization, Poverty, Terrorism, Non State Actors, Inequality, Fragile States, Economy, Conflict, Violence, Peace, and Justice
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

66. Women and Children First: Repatriating the Westerners Affiliated with ISIS

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Tens of thousands of foreign men, women and children affiliated with ISIS are detained in northeast Syria. The camps where they are held pose a formidable security and humanitarian challenge to the region. Western governments should, at minimum, accelerate the repatriation of women and children. What’s new? Alongside the thousands of foreign fighters detained in north east Syria are thousands of non-Syrian children and women. Western governments have for months publicly wrestled with political and policy qualms about repatriating their nationals. Turkey’s incursion into Syria highlights that the window for repatriation or transfer could close suddenly. Why does it matter? The long-term detention of these men, women and children in north east Syria has always been deeply problematic for security and humanitarian reasons. The Turkish incursion and shifting balance of power in the region makes the security of the camps where they are held more precarious. What should be done? As a first step toward addressing this challenge, Western governments should accelerate repatriation of their national children and women. They should recognise the diversity of women’s backgrounds and repatriate those who are unthreatening. They should also pour substantial diplomatic and financial resources into developing responsible options for the remaining population.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Law Enforcement, Islamic State, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

67. Before and Beyond Al-Shabaab: National Islamic Councils, Contentious Politics and the Rise of Jihadism in East Africa

Author:: Jannis Saalfeld
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:: Following the 2010 Kampala bombings and the high-profile attack on Nairobi’s Westgate shopping mall in 2013, research on violent extremism in East Africa has focused on Al-Shabaab’s evolution into a persistent transnational security threat. However, the regional advent of Jihadism(s) predates the onset of Somalia’s present civil war. Examining broader historical patterns of politico-religious mobilisation, the report argues that the genesis and expansion of militant Islamist networks in Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Mozambique can be attributed, among other things, to the failure of largely non-Muslim post-colonial ruling elites to effectively regulate the Islamic sphere. Specifically, it shows how the disintegration of Muslim contestation movements created a political environment conducive to collective radicalisation. By shedding light on this development, the report provides evidence that while the timing and escalatory dynamics of Jihadist violence and radicalisation have depended on specific domestic context conditions, the overarching trajectories of contentious Muslim politics that have unfolded in East Africa’s religiously heterogeneous societies share crucial similarities.
Topic:: Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Conflict, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Africa and East Africa

68. The post-caliphate Salafi-jihadi environment

Author:: Isaac Kfir
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: In 2019, the global Salafi-jihadi architecture is very different from the one that emerged in September 2001, when transnational terrorism burst on to the international scene, or July 2014, when ISIL controlled more than 34,000 square miles in Syria and Iraq and thousands of young men and women were flocking to be part of its ‘caliphate’.
Topic:: Terrorism, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

69. 137 Shades of Terrorism. French Jihadists Before the Courts

Author:: Marc Hecker
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: This study, based on original judicial sources, assesses the profiles of 137 individuals sentenced in France for cases related to jihadism. Among other things, the study reveals several common denominators including a lower level of education, poorer integration into the labor market, higher levels of criminal activity, and stronger ties to the Maghreb and to sub-Saharan Africa than the average French citizen. Moreover, a qualitative analysis provides an understanding of the processes of radicalization and subsequent participation in terrorist activities. As such, it expounds the role played by group dynamics, the internet, and prisons. This study further illustrates the strains imposed on the judicial and penal systems by the jihadist phenomenon. Relapse is specifically explored, notably through the cases of individuals convicted of terrorism, who, after serving their sentence, launched attacks on French soil. The subject is all the more topical in light of the likely release from prison of some sixty individuals, sentenced for acts of terrorism, in the upcoming two years.
Topic:: Crime, Terrorism, Islamic State, Courts, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and France

70. Contemporary Jihadi Militancy in Yemen

Author:: Elisabeth Kendall
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Regional conflict and internal chaos have allowed militant jihadi groups to rise and flourish in Yemen. This paper analyzes two of the most prominent such groups, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Islamic State in Yemen (ISY), by scrutinizing the factors that led to their respective ascents and examining the challenges and pressures that have caused their respective declines. By comparing and contrasting their operations, respective styles of leadership, and varying levels of community integration, this paper charts the path of jihadi militancy in Yemen and assesses its future in Yemeni politics and society.
Topic:: Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and Gulf Nations

71. Terrorism and human rights: the perspective of international law

Author:: David Stewart
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: This paper explores the relationship between terrorism and human rights from the international legal perspective. It first reviews the definitional content of “terrorism” and “human rights” and then discusses their doctrinal interactions—considering terrorism as both a cause and a product of human rights violations and addressing counter-terrorism efforts as a source of human rights violations that can themselves generate support for terrorism. It concludes with some observations about issues of international terrorism in the context of refugee law, criminal law and humanitarian law as well as some recommendations for future action.
Topic:: Crime, Human Rights, International Law, Terrorism, and Refugees
Political Geography:: Middle East and Global Focus

72. France’s Terrorism Fight

Author:: Łukasz Jurczyszyn
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The fight against terrorism is one of President Emmanuel Macron’s political priorities. Activities in this field are carried out in two main directions, one, in the country, through new institutions and regulations and, two, abroad, through military operations and by increasing development assistance in Africa and the Middle East. More and more evidence indicates that they have been having the expected operational and political effects. The number of detected and subverted terrorist plots is increasing and Macron’s initiatives in this area can count on considerable public support.
Topic:: National Security, Terrorism, Islamic State, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, France, and Africa

73. Global Terrorism Index 2018: Measuring and understanding the global impact of terrorism

Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: The GTI is produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) based on data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). Data for the GTD is collected and collated by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) at the University of Maryland. The GTD contains over 170,000 terrorist incidents for the period 1970 to 2017. Deaths from terrorism fell for the third consecutive year, after peaking in 2014. The total number of deaths fell by 27 per cent between 2016 and 2017, with the largest falls occurring in Iraq and Syria. Iraq recorded over 5,000 fewer deaths from terrorism in 2017, while Syria recorded over 1,000 fewer deaths. The fall in deaths was reflected in scores on the GTI, with 94 countries improving, compared to 46 that deteriorated. This is the highest number of countries to record a year on year improvement since 2004 and reflects the increased emphasis placed on countering terrorism around the world since the surge in violence in 2013. The large falls in the number of deaths in Iraq and Syria is mainly the result of ISIL’s continuing decline. The number of deaths from terrorist attacks attributed to ISIL fell by 52 per cent in 2017, with total incidents falling by 22 per cent. There was a corresponding decrease in the lethality of attacks, highlighting the weakening capacity of the organisation. ISIL has now lost most of its territory and sources of revenue and is actively redirecting resources away from the Middle East and into North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia.
Topic:: Political Violence, Economics, Terrorism, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, Southeast Asia, Global, and Sub-Saharan Africa

74. Pakistan Security Report 2017

Author:: Muhammad Amir Rana, Safdar Sial, Anam Fatima, Muhammad Mumtaz Ali Khan, Shahzada Irfan Ahmed, Maaz Khan, and Najam U Din
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:: Despite a 16% decline in terrorist attacks in 2017, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and its associated groups remained the most potent threat; they were followed by nationalist-insurgent groups, especially Balochistan Liberation Army and Balochistan Liberation Front. What has been quite alarming is the increasing footprints of Daesh, especially in Balochistan and northern Sindh, carrying out the deadliest attacks. These realities require concerted effort and a revision of the National Action Plan, country’s counter-terror plan for yet ambiguity remains about who is responsible for NAP. It will be much better that parliament provides oversight to not only NAP, help revise it in light of new realities, but also lay down criteria for mainstreaming militants – which drew debate in 2017. These are some of the major findings of the Pakistan Security Report 2017.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:: Pakistan

75. Lessons from the Past: Women, Political Violence, and CVE

Author:: Kelly M. McFarland
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:: In the Malaysian jungles in the mid-1950s, it would have been conceivable for a Malayan Communist Party insurgent – battling the Malayan government and British counter-insurgency forces – to hear the voice of his mother. During 1956, over “600 separate voice messages were recorded and more than 2,200 flights were made by aircraft broadcasting” messages to insurgents calling on them to surrender. Often, the wives or mothers of insurgents recorded these messages. Years later, in 1985 “the first female suicide bomber, a seventeen-year-old Lebanese girl named Sana’a Mehaydali, was sent by the Syrian Socialist National Party…to blow herself up near an Israeli convoy in Lebanon,” leading to the death of five Israeli soldiers. These disparate events reveal the long and often forgotten history of women’s engagement with violent extremism – a history that can provide key lessons for current attempts to formulate and enact countering violent extremism (CVE) policies. Over the past decade, CVE has become a key component of broader counterterrorism initiatives, and, increasingly, of academic research agendas. As Owen Frazier and Christian Nunlist point out, “The idea underpinning CVE is that violent extremists should not be fought exclusively with intelligence, police, and military means. The structural causes of violent extremism must also be tackled, including intolerance, government failure, and political, economic, and social marginalization.” Yet the roles women play in relation to CVE have been vastly overlooked and understudied. Most research in this area focuses heavily on the most recent examples of political violence and terrorism and few focus on women’s roles specifically. Indeed, while CVE as a distinct tool of policy and research is recent, political violence, terrorism, and efforts to combat these forces are not. This study engages with historical case studies of political violence and terrorism and their concurrent counter-insurgency and CVE programs to bring a grounded historical perspective into CVE policy-making. This study aims to better understand how women participate in, counteract, and prevent violent extremism by examining the historical evidence for how they have previously done so. Ultimately, this study seeks to find ways for those working on CVE to use historical evidence in their work in order to create more effective CVE policies.
Topic:: Political Violence, Terrorism, History, Women, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:: Malaysia, Philippines, Colombia, Cyprus, and Northern Ireland

76. Mosaics of Power: Fragmentation of the Syrian state since 2011

Author:: Helle Malmvig
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: After years of war, the Syrian state apparatus has fragmented into a loosely knit network of overlapping and competing authorities that hold sway over different areas. Multiple groups are enacting and performing what are perceived to be key state tasks, sometimes living side by side, and sometimes fighting, competing and negotiating in overlapping networks of power. These cross-cutting ties defy any easy dichotomies between rebels and government of the sort we have become all too familiar with from military control maps. This does not imply that theSyrian state is on the verge of collapse or sectarian ethnic division. Rather the Syrian government has continued to function internationally as a sovereign state, and it has been able to draw on its administrative and institutional capacities, and even to nurture new and old local power elites in the form of prominent families, business leaders, clans and sheiks. In order to survive, the Assad regime has paradoxically outsourced or co-shared key state functions – the means of violence, border control, taxation and service provision – to or with a multiplicity of foreign and local actors, whether foreign Shia militias, the Kurdish YPG or Local Defense Forces. Many of these foreign powers and militias are likely to remain in Syria after the war in order to secure so-called strategic depth, and they thrive on a certain degree of ‘controlled state chaos’. Similarly, the multiplicity of local actors and intermediaries that have been empowered during the war will not easily relinquish their new found autonomy, and may, just like the Syrian opposition, push the Syrian state towards greater localization and decentralization.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, International Organization, Politics, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Power Politics, Non State Actors, and Fragile States
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

77. Europe and the Sahel-Maghreb Crisis

Author:: Rasmus Alenius Boserup and Luis Martinez
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: In this new DIIS report senior researcher at DIIS, Rasmus Alenius Boserup and Research Director at Sciences Po, Luis Martinez, analyse how European policy-makers have recently come to perceive the Sahel as a threat to Europe’s own security and stability. Marking the end of the Sahel-Maghreb Research Platform – a research project funded by the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and hosted by DIIS in collaboration with Voluntas Advisory – the report draws on input and analysis provided by an international team of experts and scholars associated to the project. Focusing on the most significant recent developments with trans-national jihadism and cross-border migration, the report argues that, although European powers spearheaded by France have succeeded in reducing a number of the most immediate threats to the survival of states and societies in some of the most vulnerable parts of the Sahel, the international community has failed to generate the conditions that would foster long-term peace and development. Hence, the report suggests that the European powers should look for ways to inject life into the strategic objective of bringing the North African powers into play when attempting to solve the crisis in the Sahel.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Migration, Terrorism, Power Politics, Non State Actors, Fragile States, Borders, and Peace
Political Geography:: France, Libya, Denmark, Mali, and Sahel

78. Iraq's Post-2014 Counter Terrorism Service

Author:: David Witty
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: More than a decade ago, the United States created the elite Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service to conduct, coordinate, and lead CT efforts within the country. The CTS generally thrived in this role, even as Iraqis viewed the group with suspicion owing to its secretive operations, forbidding look, and avoidance of publicity. Beginning in 2014, though, the service experienced a dramatic boost in popularity after spearheading the ouster of Islamic State forces from Iraqi territories. In this respect, the CTS far outshone other elements within the Iraqi security architecture. But the anti-IS effort entailed a vastly expanded role for the CTS, straining its capabilities, producing high casualties, and raising questions about how the group should position itself in a future Iraq. In this new study, David M. Witty examines prospects for the Counter Terrorism Service in Iraq's post–Islamic State landscape. Despite the group's impressive performance in recent campaigns, he argues that it should return to its CT focus and that Washington can help drive this by conditioning future aid on these terms. The high cost of not doing so could include stunting the healthy growth of other Iraqi security entities.
Topic:: Terrorism and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Iraq and Global Focus

79. At the Crossroads of Sahelian Conflicts: Insecurity, Terrorism, and Arms Trafficking in Niger

Author:: Savannah de Tessières
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: This Report from the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) project examines insecurity, terrorism, and trafficking in Niger.The Sahel hosts multiple conflicts with myriad armed actors destabilizing the entire region. Positioned at the heart of this region, Niger sits at the crossroads of terrorism, trafficking, and conflict. The Nigerien state has great difficulty in guaranteeing domestic security, which has a devastating impact on social and economic development, in addition to it reinforcing tensions and fueling local conflicts. Older tensions become locked into new insecurity dynamics, such as terrorism, further complicating any future resolutions. Armed banditry, trafficking of weapons and drugs, violent community disputes, and the rise in terrorist attacks are all symptomatic of the State’s struggles. At the Crossroads of Sahelian Conflicts: Insecurity, Terrorism, and Arms Trafficking in Niger, authored by Savannah de Tessières, a senior consultant to the Survey, draws on extensive fieldwork in the regions of Agadez, Diffa, and Niamey. This included examinations of arms and ammunition seized across the country, as well as dozens of interviews with national and international government and security officials, civil society representatives, gold diggers, former rebels, and other experts.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Terrorism, and Arms Trade
Political Geography:: Africa, North Africa, Sahel, and Niger

80. From Legal to Lethal: Converted Firearms in Europe

Author:: Nicolas Florquin and Benjamin King
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: Criminals purchase weapons unable to fire live ammunition legally and at low costs across Europe, converting them into lethal firearms with little to no training or expertise. The Small Arms Survey report From Legal to Lethal: Converted Firearms in Europe provides a detailed examination on the topic. Users of converted firearms include petty criminals, organized crime groups, and terrorist actors. Certain conversion techniques require some level of technical skills, but converters also make use of online, open-source tutorials to convert weapons relatively easily. While Europe has faced a range of converted weapons over the past decades, two main types of readily convertible firearms have entered into the illicit arms market in recent years: Slovak-origin acoustic expansion weapons (AEWs)—as used by Amedy Coulibaly in the Montrouge and Hypercacher Paris attacks in 2015; and Turkish-manufactured alarm pistols—currently the most prevalent converted firearm in Europe. Smuggling these weapons to and within Europe involves: ant trafficking: the movement of small-scale shipments of converted and converted-to-be weapons across borders, typically involving fewer than a dozen firearms per shipment, which are transported in private vehicles, boats, or buses; and online trade and the use of parcel and postal services: the procurement of deactivated or imitation firearms or their parts and components online, shipped through parcel and postal services. Strengthened European Union regulations and coordinated law enforcement operations have succeeded in reducing some specific sources of converted firearms but these efforts have been mainly reactive, and existing record-keeping systems and statistics do not always allow for the sufficient monitoring of trends to enable early warning of new threats. The European experience in dealing with the issue of converted weapons is relevant beyond the continent as it is clear that the proliferation of these firearms takes place in other global sub-regions as well.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Terrorism, Weapons, and Arms Trade
Political Geography:: Europe

81. ISLAMIC STATE IN EAST AFRICA

Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:: The Islamic State (IS) may be on the back-foot in Iraq and Syria, but it retains various chapters across the globe. The Islamic State in Somalia is one of them; but beyond a general notion that it has established a presence, available analysis of IS’s capabilities, appeal, and trajectory remains scant. This report, produced by the European Institute of Peace together with The Global Strategy Network and Hiraal, sheds light on those aspects of IS across East Africa, with a prominent focus on Somalia.
Topic:: Religion, Terrorism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: Africa, Somalia, and East Africa

82. The Nuclear Security Summits: An Overview of State Actions to Curb Nuclear Terrorism 2010–2016

Author:: Sara Z. Kutchesfahani, Kelsey Davenport, and Erin Connolly
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Arms Control Association
Abstract:: The 2016 Nuclear Security Summit brought to a close President Barack Obama’s high-level initiative to reduce the risk of nuclear terrorism and secure weapons-usable nuclear materials. The four biannual summits from 2010-2016 played a significant role in bringing high-level political attention to the threat posed by vulnerable nuclear and radiological materials around the world and strengthening the global nuclear security regime. As part of the summit process, states were encouraged to make national commitments, known as house gifts, to take specific actions to strengthen nuclear security. Building on this concept, the 2012 summit began the tradition of offering multilateral joint statements, known as gift baskets, in which groups of states came together to address key gaps in the nuclear security architecture. The national commitments and joint statements resulted in some of the most tangible and innovative nuclear security improvements over the course of the summit process. This report offers a comprehensive assessment of the national commitments states undertook as part of the summit process. While these commitments represent significant advances, effective nuclear security requires continuous improvement to address gaps and new threats. States must continue to build on the accomplishments of the summit process to minimize the risk of nuclear terrorism.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

83. Etre cachemiri à New Delhi. L’expérience du nationalisme à distance (Being a Kashmiri in Delhi. Experiencing Long-distance Nationalism)

Author:: Charlotte Thomas
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: Armed combatant and leader of the Hizbul Mujahideen Burhan Wani was killed by the Indian Army in July 2016. This killing triggered a new phase of insurgency in Kashmir. In the Valley, the local populace started mobilizing against the Indian State in the name of azadi, (freedom). In such volatile context, the production of the national sentiment of the Kashmiris is documented from a distanciated perspective. Frontiers of the national group are explored from New Delhi, as well as the logics of differentiation and otherification of the Kashmiri group towards the Indian one. Kashmiri nationalism therefore more clearly appears in a negative definition (what a Kashmiri is not) than in a positive definition (what a Kashmiri is). The slight and incremental slip of the meaning of azadi demands is at the heart of Kashmiri nationalism. From an original demand for greater autonomy within the Indian Republic, demands of azadi now refer to the independence of the Valley – yet there are nuances that will be studied. They also convey an utter rejection of “Indianess” whether national or citizen. In that respect, New Delhi’s negating the political aspect of the mobilizations that are taking place in the Kashmir Valley has dramatically fuelled the national sentiment of the Kashmiris. The current insurgency that started in July 2016 has sped up the pace of the process. Despite the escalating tensions in the Valley, New Delhi keeps refusing to consider the political dimension of the local social movements, be they violent or peaceful. That is the reason why, beyond Kashmir and Kashmiris themselves, studying the political demands of the Kashmiri population does shed a light on the functioning of the Indian nation and the Indian state.
Topic:: Human Rights, Sovereignty, Terrorism, War, Territorial Disputes, Sociology, Material Culture, Political Science, Regional Integration, and Borders
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

84. Libya’s Terrorism Challenge: Assessing the Salafi-Jihadi Threat

Author:: Lydia Sizer
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Salafi-jihadis have maintained an active presence in Libya due to a mix of push and pull factors. Historic participation in such groups, declining standards of living, the historical marginalization of minorities, and a pervasive sense of victimhood have all made Libya a ripe jihadi recruiting ground. Many Salafi-jihadis offer the status, salary, and services that the fractured state cannot provide. These movements can be diminished through investments like educational programs, aid to war-torn regions, demilitarization programs, and improved intelligence sharing by border officials in Libya’s neighboring states. However, until the political crisis that has plagued Libya for over three years ends, there is little Libya’s international partners can do to help confront these movements. And as long as the crisis continues, civil unrest will persist and institutions will remain weak. Such a scenario would provide the requisite chaos for the present Salahi-jihadi movements to flourish.
Topic:: Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Conflict, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Middle East, Libya, and North Africa

85. Transfer of Firearms on U.S. Control Lists Raises Proliferation, Terrorism Concerns

Author:: Andrea Stricker and David Albright
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Science and International Security
Abstract:: On September 19, 2017, Reuters reported that the Trump administration is in the final stages of deciding about the transfer of three categories of items (Categories 1-3) controlled by the United States Munitions List to the Commerce Control List.1 Those categories include firearms, ammunition, and artillery. These items are currently controlled by the International Traffic in Arms Regulations, administered by the State Department’s Directorate of Defense Trade Controls, but would be moved to the Commerce Control List under the Export Administration Regulations, which is administered by the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security.2 The planned transfers would finish a proposed Obama administration reform under the Export Control Reform Initiative that was halted due to opposition from U.S. federal law enforcement agencies.3 The transfers are being hailed as an export promotion program, but the potential risks to U.S. national security are dire. There are a few key problems with the proposed transfers that the administration should be aware of, which could contribute to the proliferation of U.S. firearms worldwide to nefarious countries and to terrorists.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Terrorism, Weapons, and Illegal Trade
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

86. Pakistan Security Report 2016

Author:: Muhammad Amir Rana, Safdar Sial, Zia Ur Rehman, Shahzada Zulfiqar, Ershad Mahmud, and Tahir Khan
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:: While militant attacks declined in 2016, militant groups continue to remain a potent threat, with many widening their scope, narrowing their ideology, and evolving within the new spaces. These threats will linger on for long, unless the state moves beyond the hard approaches. In 2016, as with the preceding years, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) remained the major actor of instability in the country, carrying out 106 attacks. 2016 also saw rise of Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, with 66 attacks. Part of JA’s relative rise owes to the weakening of the TTP’s operational capability. This reality of how militant dynamics evolve should not be lost upon policy makers, note PIPS’s 2016 security report. Overall, the report notes, there has been a decline of 28% in terrorist attacks in 2016: 441 terrorist attacks took place in 57 districts/regions across Pakistan, claiming 908 lives. While suicide bombings have been receding, the reports note, 50% of the attacks in 2016 were targeted killing or shooting.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:: Pakistan

87. Untangling the Web: A Blueprint for Reforming American Security Sector Assistance

Author:: Rose Jackson
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Open Society Foundations
Abstract:: Since the attacks of 9/11, the United States has spent more than $250 billion building up military and police forces around the world. From attempts to build whole armies in Iraq and Afghanistan to efforts to help Yemen or Nigeria fight terrorism, the impact of these efforts has been mixed and in some cases counterproductive, exacerbating local corruption, human rights abuses, and even terrorism. A knot of U.S. offices and agencies have evolved to provide this aid, mostly pulling in different directions. Untangling the Web: A Blueprint for Reforming American Security Sector Assistance describes the main failures in the system and sets out immediate steps the next administration can take to improve how the U.S. government plans, coordinates, and executes its security-related assistance. This would significantly increase transparency and accountability and link the aid more closely to the human rights, development, and governance outcomes that are essential to U.S. foreign policy interests and national security.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, National Security, Terrorism, War, International Security, Military Affairs, Counter-terrorism, and Grand Strategy
Political Geography:: Middle East and Global Focus

88. Daesh Meta-Narratives: From the Global Ummah to the Hyperlocal

Author:: The Carter Center
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: Daesh’s innovative and tailored use of social media has enabled the terrorist organization to lure and recruit disaffected young men and women on a global scale. Effective interventions to reduce the flow of foreign fighters to Daesh require a nuanced understanding of the organization’s recruitment strategies. This includes both the range of Daesh’s propaganda media (videos, online print materials, offline recruitment networks), and the material’s content.1 Such analysis is essential for policy-makers and community leaders who are on the frontlines of developing effective counter-narratives to Daesh’s insidious ideology.
Topic:: Terrorism and International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

89. The Women in Daesh: Deconstructing Complex Gender Dynamics in Daesh Recruitment Propaganda

Author:: The Carter Center
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: Since its inception, Daesh has been successfully recruiting women across national and ideological lines to assume key positions in advancing the organization’s objectives. According to recent estimates, out of 31,000 fighters within Daesh territories, almost one-fifth, roughly 6,200, are women. Yet, to date, research and policy focus on women’s involvement in Daesh has been scant. Several media accounts that have covered female participation tend to be alarmingly reductionist in their description of the roles women play in Daesh. These reports primarily categorize women as either passive victims, “Jihadi brides,” or subsidiary supporters of male guardians with negligible influence. This approach not only ignores the multiplicity of roles played by women to expand Daesh’s ideological and operational agenda, but also oversimplifies the motivations behind their decisions to join Daesh. Just like their male counterparts, women are complex human beings with conflicting aspirations, ideological leanings, and life struggles that inform the choices they make.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Gender Issues, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Global Focus

90. Will Low-Cost Terror Financing Spread in the Middle East?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The international community’s e orts have recently succeeded in reducing the sources of funding of many terror organizations in the Middle East. ISIS is one instance, where the military operations launched by a US- led global coalition since September 2014, have signi cantly reduced the terrorist group’s funds generated from oil sales and illicit trade and caused huge losses.
Topic:: Terrorism, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

91. “The Terrorism of the Possible” sweeping Europe

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Three European states and Russia were hit by a flurry of six terrorist attacks over five consecutive days during this month of August. A primary driver of the attacks appears to be a desire to deal a series of strong blows to these states in response to the human and material losses suffered by ISIS in Iraq and Syria after it withdrew from Mosul City and retreated in Raqqa City. Similar attack patterns and targets as well as similar identities of the perpetrators of some attacks are what recent attacks appear to have in common. This indicates that the group is trying to adapt and de- velop its tactics, as revealed by investiga- tions into the August 17 Barcelona attack.
Topic:: Terrorism and International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

92. Following the Money: A Primer on Terrorist Financing

Author:: Ellie Maruyama and Kelsey Hallahan
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: Terrorist financing entails the raising and moving of funds intended for terrorist causes.1 The number and type of terrorist groups and the threats associated with them have changed over time, but the fundamental need for terrorists to raise, move, and use funds has remained constant.2 Terrorists have displayed adaptability and opportunism in meeting their financing needs, which vary but can be substantial.3 For example, al Qaeda relied on many sources of funding and its pre-9/11 annual budget was an estimated $30 million.4 The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), one of the best-funded terrorist organizations in modern history, approved a $2 billion budget for 2015
Topic:: Terrorism and International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

93. Playing the Long Game

Author:: Hardin Lang and Alia Awadallah
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: During the last week of August 2017, the Lebanese government completed its largest counterterrorism operation in years, pushing Islamic State (IS) militants from the group’s stronghold along the Lebanese border with Syria. As many as 7,000 soldiers from the Lebanese army and special operations forces took part.1 The offensive underscored Lebanon’s contribution to the global counter-IS coalition and the key role that its military and security services have played in blocking the expansion of Sunni militant groups in the region. None of this would be possible without the long-term support of the United States, which has quietly bolstered Lebanon’s counterterrorism capabilities over the course of a decade. The cornerstone of the American effort has been a program to strengthen the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) that was launched after Syrian troops withdrew from Lebanon in 2005.2 In particular, Lebanon’s special operations community has made impressive strides in confronting the threat posed by Salafi-jihadi terror groups.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, and War on Terror
Political Geography:: Middle East, Lebanon, North America, and United States of America

94. La Turquie face aux réfugiés syriens : entre engagement humanitaire et instrumentalisation politique (Turkey Hosting Syrian Refugees: Between Humanitarian Commitment and Political Instrumentalisation)

Author:: Bayram Balci and Juliette Tolay
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: While the issue of Syrian refugees has led an increasing number of countries to work on curbing arrivals, one country, Turkey, hosts almost half of these refugees. Yet, far from imposing restrictions, Turkey has distinguished itself for its open border policy and large-scale humanitarian contribution. Turkey’s generosity alone is not sufficient to understand this asylum policy put in place specifically for Syrians. There are indeed a number of political factors that indicate a certain level of instrumentalisation of this issue. In particular, Turkey’s benevolent attitude can be explained by Turkey’s early opposition to Assad in the Syrian conflict and its wish to play a role in the post-conflict reconstruction of Syria, as well as by its willingness to extract material and symbolic benefits from the European Union. But the refugee crisis also matters at the level of domestic politics, where different political parties (in power or in the opposition) seem to have used the refugee issue opportunistically, at the expense of a climate favorable to Syrians’ healthy integration in Turkey.
Topic:: Globalization, Migration, Nationalism, Religion, Terrorism, War, International Security, Diaspora, Peacekeeping, Refugees, Syrian War, Regional Integration, and Transnational Actors
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Balkans, and Syria

95. Regards sur l’Eurasie - L’année politique 2015

Author:: Anne De Tinguy, Bayram Balci, Isabelle Facon, Adrien Fauve, Thorniké Gordadze, Sergei Guriev, Raphaël Lefèvre, Gilles Lepesant, and Céline Marangé
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: "Looking into Eurasia" provides some keys to understand the events and phenomena that have left their imprint on a region that has undergone major mutation since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991: the post-soviet space. With a cross-cutting approach that is no way claims to be exhaustive, this study seeks to identify the key drivers, the regional dynamics and the underlying issues at stake.
Topic:: Demographics, Economics, Energy Policy, Migration, Nationalism, Political Economy, Sovereignty, Terrorism, Natural Resources, Europeanization, Political Science, Regional Integration, and State
Political Geography:: Russia, Central Asia, Caucasus, Middle East, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Georgia, Western Europe, and European Union

96. Military Cooperation in MENA: Uncertainty in the Face of Changing Threats

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: This Policy Paper is part of The Middle East Institute's Regional Cooperation Series. Throughout 2016, MEI will be releasing several policy papers by renowned scholars and experts exploring possibilities to foster regional cooperation across an array of sectors. The purpose is to highlight the myriad benefits and opportunities associated with regional cooperation, and the high costs of the continued business-as-usual model of competition and intense rivalry. It is all too easy to develop ambitious plans for regional security cooperation. In practice, however, almost all real world security cooperation is dependent on the different priorities states give to various threats, the willingness of given regimes to act, the resources they develop and have available, and the level of interoperability between their forces. Actual security cooperation in the MENA region has long been limited, occurred between changing mixes of individual countries rather than on a regional basis, and always lagged behind the rhetoric. Better cooperation on this level could evolve in the face of forces such as Iran’s military efforts, a powerful new Islamist extremist threat, or the outcomes to the fighting in Libya, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. However, there is little reason to assume, given regional trends, that the prospects for regional cooperation or cooperation between states will improve in the near future, and bilateral relations with external powers, principally the United States, are likely to continue to play a more critical role in the future.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Terrorism, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Iran, Turkey, Middle East, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

97. Terrorism: Undefinable and Out-of-Context?

Author:: Jochen Hippler
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:: Terrorism studies have developed since the 1970s. But the research field still suffers from several weaknesses: the inability to formulate a consensus on what exactly “terrorism” is; the vagueness and arbitrariness of the practical usage of the term “terrorism”; its politicization and the habit to use it as a moral label instead as an analytical tool; and the tendency to use the term outside of any political context. This study firstly reconsiders these conceptual weaknesses, and proposes how to deal with them. Secondly, it suggests to focus terrorism studies more on the political contexts, which produce domestic and international terrorism, by using the key example of terrorism resulting from a context of civil wars and insurgencies. The study argues that terrorism is not an ideology, not a type of warfare, rarely a strategy, but mostly a tactical instrument, which has to be analyzed in the respective political contexts.
Topic:: Civil War, Development, Terrorism, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

98. Ben Gardane Attacks: Achievements and Failures

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The 7 March 2016 attacks on Ben Gardane by Islamic State (IS) occurred in the context of growing upheaval in next-door Libya, internal government tension in Tunisia and challenges faced by Tunisia’s security apparatus after several armed attacks in the country during 2015. This policy brief examines the security, political and regional contexts of the Ben Gardane attack, the positive and negative aspects of the state’s response and addresses preventative measures the state is likely to take in the future.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Terrorism, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Tunisia

99. Terror in Europe: Safeguarding U.S. Citizens at Home and Abroad

Author:: Juan Zarate
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: Juan Zarate gives testimony to the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs in the wake of the Brussels attacks
Topic:: Terrorism and International Security
Political Geography:: America

100. The Caliphate’s Global Workforce: An Inside Look at the Islamic State’s Foreign Fighter Paper Trail

Author:: Brian Dodwell, Daniel Milton, and Don Rassler
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: This report contains an analysis of over 4,600 unique Islamic State personnel records that were produced by the group primarily between early 2013 and late 2014. The importance of this data for understanding the Islamic State and, in particular, the foreign fighter flow, cannot be overstated. To put it simply, it is the largest cache of primary source documents produced by the Islamic State available in the open-source as of this date. These particular documents were acquired by NBC News from an Islamic State defector and subsequently provided to the CTC (and other entities). This report provides a window into the organization’s global workforce, revealing information about foreign fighters’ countries of origin, citizenship, points of entry into Syria, marital status, skills and previous occupations, education levels, religious knowledge, fighting role preferences in the group, and previous jihadist experience. In addition to analyzing the data at the macro-level, the report also highlights numerous anecdotes of individual fighters. Taken together, the analysis in this report reveals an organization that is attempting to vet new members, manage talent effectively within the organization, and deal with an incredibly diverse pool of recruits.
Topic:: Terrorism, Radicalization, Islamic State, Recruitment, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:: Iraq, Europe, South Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, East Asia, Syria, and Southeast Asia

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS