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302. Where are the Growth Potentials in CESEE? An Illustration of Sectors and Products Using the Product Space
- Author:
- Francesca Guadagno, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, and Robert Stehrer
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates the sectoral and export structures as well as the product spaces of 11 economies in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE). We first employ an analysis based on revealed comparative advantages (RCAs) to identify promising sectors for future growth and then combine this analysis with a product space approach to detect related and complex products that could help these economies diversify and upgrade. The RCA analysis shows that the CESEE countries still hold a comparative advantage in manufacturing, although a slightly negative trend emerged between 2013 and 2020. Meanwhile, some services – particularly computer programming, consultancy and information service activities – have emerged as the most successful sectors to date. The product space analysis indicates that for the majority of the CESEE economies, it is possible to identify relatively complex products that could be easily targeted to spur upgrading. We also find that while we run the analysis separately for each of the 11 CESEE countries, the identified opportunities are often the same. While this is intuitively explained by the similar specialisations of these 11 countries, from a policy perspective this finding implies that each country has to deploy a battery of indicators to identify profitable and realistic niches within these broadly defined product categories.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- Europe
303. Still in the Fast Lane? How can EU-CEE Get its Groove Back?
- Author:
- Tomáš Slačík
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- This report revisits the growth and convergence performance of the 11 EU member states in Central, East and Southeast Europe (EU-CEE11) over the past few decades, examining the underlying drivers, structural changes and the outlook. The review aims to assess the sustainability of the current economic model and identify areas for economic policy to focus on boosting growth. The findings show that convergence has significantly slowed since the global financial crisis, with value added growth declining in virtually all industries. This slowdown is attributed to structural rather than cyclical factors, with total factor productivity (TFP) being the main driver as well as the primary culprit behind the deceleration. Since medium-term growth projections for the region are not optimistic, the EU-CEE11 countries must make substantial efforts to improve their economic models. Key areas to focus on include energy, underutilised labour and improving human capital. While still very competitive, the manufacturing sector needs to move towards higher value added activities.
- Topic:
- European Union, Economic Growth, Trade, Regional Economy, and Convergence
- Political Geography:
- Europe
304. Toward Innovation-driven Growth: Innovation Systems and Policies in EU Member States of Central Eastern Europe
- Author:
- Alexandra Bykova, Viktrória Döme, Richard Grieveson, Francesca Guadagno, and Doris Hanzl-Weiss
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- This study builds on our previous analyses of a new growth model for the EU member states of Central and Eastern European (CEE), focusing on fostering innovation-driven development. We aim to explain the types of innovation systems and policies that enhance domestic innovation capabilities, drawing on global best practices. A critical evaluation of the current innovation landscape in EU-CEE countries is conducted, particularly in the context of the green and digital transitions. The study assesses the strengths and weaknesses of both national innovation initiatives and opportunities provided by EU industrial and technology policy frameworks. Based on these insights, we offer actionable policy recommendations to promote innovation-driven growth, enhance productivity, and boost economic convergence over the medium term, taking into account the unique political and historical contexts of the EU-CEE countries. Additionally, we prepare country-specific briefing notes tailored to the individual development needs and opportunities of each nation.
- Topic:
- Development, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, Economic Growth, Innovation, Economic Competition, and Convergence
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe
305. AI and the US Economy: Optimism, Pessimism, or Realism?
- Author:
- Fredrick Hernandez, Zach Moller, and Gabe Horwitz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Third Way
- Abstract:
- There were 130 websites on the internet in 1993; today there are 1.1 billion.1 Over those 30 years, the US economy quadrupled in nominal size and tripled in per capita income.2 The digital age has been very good for America. But it has also concentrated wealth and opportunity. The richest American in 1993 would only be the 101st richest today in inflation-adjusted dollars.3 There are now 735 billionaires living in America today, compared to fewer than 75 in the world in 1993.4 Meanwhile, the gains for the middle class were not stellar. Real median household income grew a solid, but not spectacular, 32% during the internet age. Most of that gain accrued to the two-fifths of working age America with a college degree.5 “50% to 70% of the changes in the US wage structure are intimately linked to automation, particularly digital automation,” MIT economist Daron Acemoglu estimates.6 That was the digital age. What about the artificial intelligence age? Ask McKinsey partner Michael Chui about AI and he says “it can be great not only for companies but for humankind.”7 But Eliezer Yudkowsky, co-founder of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute, said that if someone builds an over-powered AI, he expects “that every single member of the human species and all biological life on Earth dies shortly thereafter.”8 What seems clear is that whether we’re addressing the future of humankind or the well-being of the workforce, policymakers and industries must make intentional choices to get the best of AI and avoid the worst. Since AI will change the way we work and learn, this paper unpacks different economic projections to give policymakers a better read on what this technology will do to everything from American GDP to skill training. Broadly speaking, there are three distinct perspectives on AI and the economy. Optimists predict AI will elevate the working class, accelerate our national prosperity, and lower costs. Pessimists say AI will contribute to income inequality in the United States, jobs will be automated out of existence, and large corporations will gain far more than workers and families. Pragmatists accept AI will have positive benefits to the economy but acknowledge the mixed bag of how it will affect jobs and generally call for specific actions to mitigate harms and spread benefits. Below, we explore the key takeaways from each perspective. This is a product in a multi-year series to help educate policymakers on the implications and policy choices confronting Congress and the Administration on next generation Artificial Intelligence.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Economy, Artificial Intelligence, Digital Technologies, and Optimism
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
306. Washington's and Taiwan's Diverging Interests Doesn't Make War Imminent
- Author:
- Hargisl Shirley Martey
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Third Way
- Abstract:
- We are a month from the Taiwan 2024 election that sent shockwaves around the world. President-elect, Lai Ching-te (賴清德), dared to utter the world ‘independence” in a strike against the longstanding One China Policy (一个中国政策) in his successful campaign to lead the nation. The election was important enough for an increasingly assertive President Xi Jinping (习近平出席) to try (and fail) to influence the election’s outcome. Xi has been rattling cages for the last several years and has made no secret of his desire to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s thumb without explicitly ruling out the use of force. Meanwhile, a busy President Biden has had his hands full keeping allies committed to Ukraine, battling Putin-sympathetic members of Congress, while also dealing with cascading crises in Israel and the Middle East. With that as our backdrop, does Lai’s election, Xi’s frustration, and Biden’s preoccupation mean we are closer to conflict in the Taiwan Strait? In this brief analysis we argue that at present the answer is “no.” And we make this call by looking at the vantage points and early actions of each country. For America, the Taiwan election has put the country on alert. For Taiwan, domestic concerns are mainly driving voters – not cross-Strait policy. For the People’s Republic of China (PRC; 中华人民共和国), ignore the rhetoric because they’ve followed their Taiwan election disappointment by returning to their standard playbook.1 But stay tuned…. perhaps they’re saving the fireworks for Lai’s May 20 inauguration.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, National Security, Politics, Elections, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, North America, and United States of America
307. Designing a New Paradigm in Global Trade
- Author:
- Ryan Mulholland, Trevor Sutton, and Timothy Meyer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- How a successful Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum could function while delivering maximum benefits to workers and the environment.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Treaties and Agreements, Sustainability, and Metals
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
308. Centering Access, Quality, and Equity and Justice in a Beyond 30×30 Ocean Strategy
- Author:
- Angelo Villagomez, Jasmin Graham, and Alia Hidayat
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- The Biden administration should deliver an ocean conservation framework that includes new metrics for success.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Oceans and Seas, Joe Biden, and Equity
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
309. The Road to Baku, Belém, and Beyond: A 5-Year Outlook for U.S. International Climate Finance
- Author:
- Courtney Federico
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- The United States must work to establish an ambitious new international climate finance goal this year at COP29 as part of a five-year plan to scale resources to combat the climate crisis.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Diplomacy, Climate Finance, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
310. 3 International Climate Priorities for 2024
- Author:
- Anne Christianson, Trevor Sutton, and Frances Colon
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- As President Joe Biden’s first term draws to a close, his administration must deliver on three international climate policies to catalyze a 21st-century clean energy economy and avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Diplomacy, Economy, Inflation, Renewable Energy, Resilience, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
311. Extreme Heat Is More Dangerous for Workers Every Year
- Author:
- Jill Rosenthal, Rosa Barrientos-Ferrer, and Kate Petosa
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- Federal and state governments should step up efforts—including adopting heat standards—to address increased on-the-job heat-related injury, illness, and death.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Health, Labor Issues, Regulation, and Heat Waves
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
312. Cement and Concrete Companies Leading the Net-Zero Transition
- Author:
- Jamie Friedman
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- New technologies spurred by federal support show a cleaner path forward for the highly emissive cement and concrete industry.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Industry, Carbon Emissions, Green Transition, Net Zero, and Concrete
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
313. Protecting Children From Extreme Heat Is Critical for Their Health, Learning, and Development
- Author:
- Allie Schneider, Paige Shoemaker DeMio, and Hailey Gibbs
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- As climate change intensifies extreme heat around the globe, policymakers must take steps to develop heat standards for children and support infrastructure improvements to ensure schools, child care centers, and communities are safe and healthy places for children.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Education, Children, Child Development, and Heat
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
314. At Home or Abroad, U.S. Firearms Should Not Fuel Violence, Instability, and Abuse
- Author:
- Allison McManus and Laura Kilbury
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- Congress and the Biden administration should strengthen the U.S. Department of Commerce’s efforts to prevent American firearms from reaching adversaries and fueling global violence and rights abuses.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, National Security, Weapons, and Gun Violence
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Latin America, and United States of America
315. Revitalizing U.S. Trade Remedy Tools for an Era of Industrial Policy in an Interconnected World
- Author:
- Ryan Mulholland
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- To implement an effective industrial policy, the United States needs to update its trade enforcement toolkit to meet the challenges of the modern world and utilize its existing trade authorities differently.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Economy, and Economic Development
- Political Geography:
- China and United States of America
316. Environmental Peacemaking in Somalia: Integrated Climate and Conflict Analysis of the Newly Liberated Areas of Hirshabelle and Galmudug
- Author:
- Arthur Brochen, Mohamud Mohamed Khadar, Abdirashid Artan, Delphine Virnot, and Albert Martinez
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- European Institute of Peace (EIP)
- Abstract:
- This analysis assesses both the short and long-term impacts of environment- and climate-related security risks in the Newly Liberated Areas (NLA) of Somalia in Hirshabelle and Galmudug. The analysis had the objectives of (1) understanding the pathways in which environmental and climate risks can affect conflict better and (2) developing actionable recommendations for environmental peacemaking and peacebuilding in these states of Somalia. This integrated climate and conflict analysis employed a methodology based on the conflict analysis guidance from the European External Action Service (EEAS) and the climate security guidance developed by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Environment, Conflict, and Peacemaking
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somalia
317. NATO as a nuclear alliance : NATO’s nuclear capability and its evolution in the international nuclear order
- Author:
- Tapio Juntunen, Jyri Lavikainen, Matti Pesu, and Iro Särkkä
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Finland’s entry into NATO marked admission to a nuclear alliance. The aim of this report is to provide an overview of the structure and trends of the international nuclear order, the basics of NATO’s nuclear deterrence and its implementation, and decision-making related to the alliance’s nuclear weapons policy. The study will also assess how Finland can participate in NATO’s nuclear deterrence policy if it so wishes and what effects NATO membership will have on Finland’s arms control policy. Nuclear deterrence constitutes one part of NATO’s deterrence mix, and the alliance views nuclear weapons as the supreme guarantee of its security. U.S. nuclear weapons form the backbone of NATO’s nuclear deterrence, and a small proportion of its nuclear weapons are stationed in allied countries. According to NATO’s statements, the purpose of its nuclear deterrence is to preserve peace, prevent coercion and deter military aggression. NATO has not made any major changes in its nuclear weapons policy in recent years. The key outlines of NATO’s nuclear weapons policy are decided at NATO summits. The alliance has its own senior body for discussion on nuclear weapons: the Nuclear Planning Group. Non-nuclear allies such as Finland have several opportunities to influence and participate in the alliance’s nuclear weapons policy. Importantly, as a member of NATO, Finland can continue its active arms control efforts.
- Topic:
- NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Alliance, Deterrence, and International Order
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Finland
318. Finland's partnerships as a NATO member: Prospects for defence cooperation in a multilateral framework
- Author:
- Iro Särkkä, Minna Ålander, Joel Linnainmäki, and Antti Pihlajamaa
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Before joining NATO, Finland formed several bi-, tri- and minilateral defence cooperation partnerships with its neighbouring countries and major NATO member states. After NATO accession, the role of smaller defence cooperation formats has changed in Finland’s security and defence policy. As a NATO ally, why should Finland continue to promote these forms of defence cooperation, and what will their significance be in the future? This report approaches defence cooperation from the perspective of individual NATO member states, aiming to enhance our understanding of the motives behind such cooperation in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Estonia, Norway and Sweden. It studies defence cooperation through key strategic, military, economic and political factors, such as the perceived threat environment, military capabilities, strategic culture, and the role member states play in the multilateral security framework of NATO. The report compares these six countries with Finland and identifies factors impacting potential future cooperation. The report finds that regional defence cooperation can yield positive outcomes for NATO. Bi-, tri- and minilateral defence cooperation can enhance intra-alliance policymaking and serve as a tool to build trust with key partners and allies, thus facilitating defence integration within NATO.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Partnerships, and Defense Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Finland, Norway, France, Germany, Estonia, and Sweden
319. Helsinki Security Forum 2024 report
- Author:
- Mikael Mattlin, Harri Mikkola, Charly Salonius-Pasternak, Tyyne Karjalainen, and Minna Ålander
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Helsinki Security Forum 2024: Towards a Total Defence of Europe – From Apathy to Action? In its search for unity, Europe requires a comprehensive approach to security to build resilient societies. The third annual Helsinki Security Forum (HSF) will explore how comprehensive national security strategies and preparedness could benefit Europe on a broader scale. HSF is an annual event that gathers decision-makers and foreign policy experts to discuss pressing international security issues from a Northern European perspective.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Northern Europe
320. A New Vision for Peace Operations
- Author:
- Eugene Chen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- Over the past eight decades, United Nations (UN) peace operations have demonstrated themselves to be valuable tools for prevention, peacemaking, peacekeeping, and peacebuilding. But they have also struggled to meet the expectations of their varied audiences, including the Security Council, host governments, and local populations. Many of these struggles stem from the supply-driven approach to how missions have been planned and deployed, which drives many of the shortcomings that are evident in missions today, such as sprawling mandates that are not focused on the political solutions necessary to resolve conflict, templated approaches to mission design and mandate implementation, and friction with other UN entities and organizations. Although these shortcomings are present throughout the mission lifecycle, they are particularly evident now with ongoing drawdowns and transitions in Mali, Sudan, Somalia, Iraq, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and as countries increasingly turn to alternatives to UN peace operations, such as peace enforcement and counterterrorism operations undertaken by regional organizations and ad hoc coalitions, despite their poor track record at fostering lasting peace. A new approach to peace operations is necessary to overcome these shortcomings, one that acknowledges that UN peace operations always operate in an environment alongside other actors and that no single entity or organization has the capacity and resources to tackle the full range of activities required to help a country towards sustaining peace. In advocating for a shift in the planning, design, and management of UN peace operations, this report provides ideas for how to implement recommendations from A New Agenda for Peace as well as considerations for the upcoming 2025 peacebuilding architecture review (PBAR). Elements of this approach can already be put into practice as part of transition contexts, where the Peacebuilding Commission and the General Assembly can play an important role in considering follow-on arrangements and how to provide countries with tailored packages of support to national prevention strategies. By allowing peace operations to better meet the expectations of key stakeholders such as the host government and Security Council while reducing friction with the UN country team and other actors, this new approach can help overcome the current crisis of confidence in UN peace operations and ensure that the UN can continue to play an important role in the maintenance of international peace and security in a time of increasing geopolitical contestation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
321. Tipping the Scales: Towards a People-Centered Justice Approach to Resilience in Fragile Contexts
- Author:
- Jonathan Papoulidis, Swati Mehta, and Nate Edwards
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- Once synonymous with food security, resilience has undergone a quiet revolution over the last decade, shifting from a sector silo to an emerging paradigm of engagement for donors and multilateral institutions. This paper traces the evolution and importance of this emerging resilience paradigm and the simultaneous rise of people-centered approaches to justice (PCJ). It argues that PCJ is a vital but missing element of the new resilience paradigm and key to its success. The paper proposes a conceptual framework for a PCJ approach to resilience and offers a few illustrative examples of how the framework might be applied to fragile contexts and beyond. The examples used are not prescriptive, but rather intend to offer grounding to what is otherwise a largely conceptual framework. The application of the framework will require additional resources, on-the-ground research, and comprehensive analysis. Ultimately, the paper argues that humanitarians, peacebuilders, resilience experts, and justice actors must work together to tip the scales of justice in favor of people’s resilience in fragile contexts.
- Topic:
- Displacement, Justice, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
322. The Inequalities-Environment Nexus: Tools for Catalyzing a Just Transition
- Author:
- Roshni Menon and Paula Sevilla Núñez
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- Transitioning to a green economy is imperative for all countries, and many have already started their journeys. The process of planning and executing a transition presents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to ensure the movement toward an environmentally sustainable and climate-safe future that benefits society as a whole and occurs in a just and equitable manner. A transition towards a greener economy is fundamentally also a matter of justice: it can save lives and improve livelihoods, as well as address historic injustices. Importantly, a just green transition can address people’s fears and uncertainties about potential negative effects on economies, livelihoods, and the environment, thus preventing backlash to the coming change and instead, widening political support. As part of collaborative effort between the Pathfinders for Peaceful, Just and Inclusive Societies hosted at the Center on International Cooperation (CIC) at New York University (NYU), the International Climate Initiative for a Just Energy Transition (IKI JET) by the German Agency of International Cooperation (GIZ), and the Ministry of Development Planning of the Republic of Indonesia (BAPPENAS), this report was developed in preparation for a workshop on just green transition administered in Bogor, Indonesia on November 2–3, 2023. This resource covers the following topics: Conceptual definition, sector affected, opportunities, and challenges for just transition. Fundamental pillars in catalyzing a just transition, including distributional impact assessments (DIA), an intersectionality-based policy analysis (IBPA) framework, and social dialogue.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Sustainability, Green Transition, and Green Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
323. Who Will Cities Be For? Inequality, Housing, and the Future of African Urbanization
- Author:
- Paula Sevilla Núñez
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- As urban areas absorb most of the population growth in the upcoming decades, urbanization presents unique opportunities to transform a society’s economic, social, and political landscape. How cities perform in these dimensions will determine whether societies can become more peaceful, just, and inclusive, and be effectively prepared to respond to future crises. In an urban age shaped by inequalities, policies on housing can either be a catalyzer of equitable and sustainable development or contribute to a vicious cycle of exclusion that hinders governments’ ability to address today’s global challenges. Approaching the issue of housing from a purely technical lens overlooks its political nature, wherein the tension between ensuring residents’ right to housing and promoting real estate financialization for economic gain encapsulates broader questions such as who belongs in a city, or a society’s vision of its own future. Housing is therefore not just a technical or financial issue, but also one of governance. Two-thirds of African cities that will exist in 2050 have yet to be built. Making space to house these new urban residents by building new homes presents an opportunity to do it with a people-centered approach. Effective housing governance requires dismantling past structures that perpetuate exclusionary practices; challenging simplistic narratives of urban glory that end up promoting the financialization of housing; and building coalitions that work for a renewed social contract through access to housing.
- Topic:
- Urbanization, Inequality, Cities, and Housing
- Political Geography:
- Africa
324. Beyond Access: Refugees’ Rights and Justice at Work
- Author:
- Emily E. Arnold-Fernández
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- Work plays a central role in the lives of refugees. When work is just, it offers economic power, personal agency, and often a sense of meaning, purpose, or even identity. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) recognize the importance of justice in relation to work. Goals 8 (decent work and inclusive economic growth) and 10 (reduced inequality) are only possible when work is just. Too often today, however, refugees have access to work only in conditions of grave injustice. Wage theft, sexual assault, and other workplace violations are common. Restrictions on refugees’ access to authorized work push them into informal, unregulated employment where justice is inaccessible. These problems show us that, to achieve SDGs 8 and 10 for refugees, we must also achieve SDG16.3: Promote the rule of law at the national and international levels and ensure equal access to justice for all. This paper aims to lay a common foundation for solutions to the justice problems refugees face in the labor market and also supports the thesis that ensuring access to justice in the workplace for refugees can facilitate mutual gains, uphold human rights, and support the achievement of the Sustainable Development Agenda.
- Topic:
- Refugees, Displacement, Justice, Humanitarian Crisis, and Work
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
325. The Private Sector as a Partner and an Agent for Violence Reduction
- Author:
- Marta Bautista Forcada, Luisa Portugal, and Bojan Francuz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- The pivotal role of the private sector in society extends beyond economic contributions. It also influences social dynamics and communities’ well-being and cohesion. This report delves into the complex and multifaceted relationship between business entities and local initiatives aimed at preventing and reducing the most serious forms of violence in communities. It presents an analysis of ongoing initiatives, with a focus on exploring the existing interactions and untapped potential of private sector actors in fostering safer environments, which in turn contributes to ongoing global mobilization efforts1 to reduce levels of violence by at least 50 percent by the year 2030. Historically, the responsibility of maintaining communal peace and security has been primarily shouldered by governmental and public institutions. However, the evolving societal landscape has ushered in a paradigm shift, recognizing the private sector’s important influence and responsibility in this domain. Most businesses, from small enterprises to multinational corporations, inherently seek stable environments for their operations, which then aligns their interests with the broader societal goals of violence prevention and community safety. This research examines the varied spectrum of private sector entities, delineating their roles and impacts within different local contexts, with a focus on urban areas. It underscores the dual nature of businesses as both beneficiaries of peaceful environments and potential contributors to enhancing the risks of violence in such environments. Through a series of case studies, the report is primarily concerned with showcasing successful collaborations between the private sector and community initiatives aimed at violence reduction, with a focus on those occurring in urban contexts. These examples serve to illustrate how businesses can act as catalysts for positive change, employing their resources, influence, and networks to foster a culture of peace and stability. Furthermore, the piece proposes a framework for viewing the private sector as a partner with a vested interest in violence reduction efforts and the halving global violence agenda, as well as recommendations for engagement and interventions. In doing so, this report aims to streamline collaboration between businesses, governmental bodies, and civil society, ensuring a unified and comprehensive approach to addressing the root causes of multiple forms of violence and enhancing community resilience. This report reevaluates the roles of business in society and underlines the need to further invest in examining the private sector impact on violence reduction. It advocates for an integrated approach where the private sector is recognized as a crucial ally in the quest for peace and security, aligning economic objectives with societal needs. By harnessing the private sector’s potential as a partner in violence reduction, the research contributes to the broader discourse on achieving sustainable peace and advancing the United Nations (UN)’s global development agenda—the 2030 Agenda—for a more peaceful, inclusive, and just world.
- Topic:
- Development, United Nations, Partnerships, Violence, Private Sector, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
326. Local Justice Systems in Colombia: The Road to Collaborative Justice that Prioritizes People
- Author:
- Edgar Ardila Amaya and Laura Ospina
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- People-centered justice puts people and their needs at the center of justice policies, programs, and services. Starting by understanding their most common problems and experiences in trying to resolve them, people-centered justice takes a data-driven and evidence-based approach to prevent and resolve people’s problems. Through its focus on fair outcomes for people, people-centered justice is different than current approaches to justice, which tend to focus on processes and institutions and seem to serve a few rather than all. Colombia’s Local Justice Systems (LJSs) are a good example of a people-centered approach to justice. Their success hinges on effective coordination and collaboration among various justice actors, spanning national and local levels. The strategy did not emerge from a policy established by a particular entity but, rather, from the convergence of various initiatives in an organic way over a period spanning more than two decades in different regions of the country. This case study seeks to put a spotlight on Colombia’s LJSs and their contribution to the 2030 Agenda, particularly focusing on the target of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 16.3, which aims to facilitate universal access to justice through effective, accountable, and inclusive institutions at all levels. The study analyzes the convergence process that has shaped the current state of the LJS, aiming to identify its constituent elements and assess the evidence of its impact across various levels and institutional structures within the Colombian justice system, as well as its role in bridging the gap in access to justice. It highlights successful experiences and lessons learned in the strategy’s implementation which may be useful for other contexts. To thoroughly understand the initiative, the study begins by discussing key challenges to access to justice in Colombia and shows how the LJSs emerged as a response to these local hurdles. Given the multifaceted nature of the LJSs evolution, the study emphasizes how state actors at different levels, supported by international cooperation, converge with community experiences. In doing so, it offers important lessons on the importance of collaboration and coordination at the local level for improving people’s access to justice.
- Topic:
- Sustainable Development Goals, Accountability, and Justice
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, South America, and Latin America
327. From Rhetoric to Reality: Uncovering Strategic Division and the Linkages Between Polarization and Inequality
- Author:
- Raquel Jesse
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- Amid the economic, climate, and health crises, in addition to deteriorating socio-economic conditions and escalating conflicts in many contexts around the world, societies are facing a new major threat: fragmentation. That is, many societies are experiencing a mixture of increased divisions at various levels of society characterized by worsening polarization, not merely along partisan lines, but across various groups. In addition, the prevalence of hate speech and violence, intermixed with a heightened sense of discord, the resurgence of marginalization for some communities, and widespread insecurity, distrust, and hardship, has resulted in a fracturing both at the political and community level. In a time when we need to work together more than ever, the era of soundbites, disinformation, and reactionary rhetoric makes thoughtful debate and dialogue, consensus-building, and coalition formation increasingly difficult. This paper aims to disentangle the threads of escalating global fragmentation, the dynamics fueling it, and emerging solutions to counteract its adverse effects. This work stems from listening to the recurring concerns and challenges from policymakers and civil society about navigating the emerging backlash, division, and disinformation when pursuing inclusive policy agendas. Whether it is to recognize Indigenous communities in legal documents, plans to implement a transformative climate agenda, policies to advance gender equality, increase public investments, or provide safe passage and resources to people on the move—divisive narratives are derailing these efforts. This report attempts to understand why and how different communities, actors, and policy agendas are being undermined in similar ways. Although these are difficult times, numerous solutions, actionable strategies, and dedicated communities are addressing these challenges—if we know where to look. We aim to highlight successful examples of tackling disinformation, bridging divides, and driving the desperately needed change. The report is organized as such: Navigating the Twin Storms of Inequality and Polarization Unveiling Strategic Division: The Power Play Behind Societal Divides Mapping Vulnerabilities: Factors Fueling Susceptibility to Strategic Division Tackling Division at its Core: Comprehensive Policy Interventions While the mechanisms and solutions to societal fragmentation are complex, there is comfort in the understanding that this challenge is not unique to any single nation or community but is shared. By shedding light on these issues, we can pave the way for solutions—together. As demonstrated in this report and the dialogues that preceded it, numerous individuals, communities, and initiatives are dedicated to innovating and meeting the challenges of our time, bridging divides with the conviction that our strength is amplified when we stand together. We hope this paper can contribute in some small way to these efforts.
- Topic:
- Inequality, Polarization, Fragmentation, and Rhetoric
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
328. United Nations and World Bank Collaboration in Security and Justice Sectors: Linkages to Development
- Author:
- Sarah Cliffe, Betty N. Wainaina, and Natacha Meden
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- The links between security and development cannot be said enough. Effective and accountable security and justice institutions are essential to anchor peace and accelerate development but only if these institutions are people-centered, inclusive, accountable, and based on respect for human rights and the rule of law. Over 600 million people are living in countries that are considered politically estranged today. Many of these countries have faced and continue to face security challenges that have been significant drivers of grievance and contestation. Addressing governance challenges in the security and justice sectors in such circumstances is critical at a moment when all the remaining United Nations (UN) multidimensional peacekeeping operations have been requested to initiate or intensify transition planning. These transitions are taking place in countries and regions where the nature of violence and conflict is changing—becoming more protracted, involving transnational non-state armed actors, amid geo-political contestations and proxy wars. This study highlights that despite the long history of UN and World Bank engagement in the security and justice sectors, there has not been much strategic collaboration. Indeed, while there have been a few very compelling examples of joint work such as public expenditure reviews in the security and justice sectors in Liberia or Somalia, joint diagnostics and knowledge products as well as disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) operations in a few countries, or strategically sequenced mutually reinforcing interventions for example in the case of The Gambia, these instances are the exception rather than the norm. The study finds that there is a lot more that can be done to promote a more systematic and strategic partnership between the UN and the World Bank in security and justice sector engagements. This could range from information sharing, joint analysis where necessary, reinforcing each other’s messaging, and the coordination and harmonization of efforts to leverage respective convening platforms and relationships. Strengthening this work is a challenge that would require engagement from the most senior UN and World Bank leadership as it would involve a cultural transformation and fresh understanding of organizational and staff incentives. Included in this report are eight joint and individual recommendations ranging from the cultural or strategic, to the more technical for policymakers across both multilateral institutions to implement and bring into their organizations.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, United Nations, World Bank, and Justice
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
329. Report of the Country Visit to Czechia of the Pathfinders for Peaceful, Just and Inclusive Societies
- Author:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- On July 23–24, 2024, a delegation from the Center on International Cooperation (CIC) at New York University, serving as the secretariat for the Pathfinders for Peaceful, Just and Inclusive Societies, participated in a country visit to Prague, Czechia. The visit was initiated by an invitation from the government of the Czech Republic in their capacity as co-chair of the Pathfinders Alliance Against Inequality and Exclusion. The delegation included Mr. Fernando Marani, Program Director, Inequality and Exclusion, and Mr. Nate Edwards, Program Associate, Justice for All. The primary objectives of the visit were to identify good practices and support Czechia’s priorities related to the implementation of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 16+ and explore inclusive policy making approaches to empower the voice of marginalized and vulnerable groups.
- Topic:
- Development, Sustainable Development Goals, and Inclusion
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Czechia
330. Bridging the Gap: Accelerating Technology Adoption for Sustainable Food Production
- Author:
- The Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- Emerging AgTech innovations have the potential to radically improve the sustainability, profitability, and accessibility of US-produced food. Rapid adoption of agricultural technological (AgTech) innovation is required to meet the future needs of a safe and sustainable US agricultural system that generates more food despite a confluence of obstacles jeopardizing agricultural productivity, while establishing consumer trust to ensure food innovation is accepted by society. With climate change and growing populations putting increasing pressure on our food systems to produce, farmers and their supply chain partners must find a way to rise to food production challenges through the rapid adoption of technology and scientific innovation. However, a recent history of AgTech innovations that failed to achieve widespread consumer acceptance underscores the importance of consumer buy-in for technical innovation in agricultural production. We need to rebuild consumer trust of new technology in food production, streamline and coalesce processes that expedite innovation, and ensure new innovation is accessible and profitable for growers. Based on a June 2023 roundtable, the second in a series of regular convenings, the white paper "Bridging the Gap: Accelerating Technology Adoption for Sustainable Food Production" explores the current development, challenges, and potential of emerging AgTech innovations, and concludes with action recommendations designed to remove barriers and expedite the next generation of AgTech integration in US food production.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Science and Technology, Food Security, Sustainability, and Productivity
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
331. A Political Economy of Zawiya: Armed Groups and Society in a Western Libyan City
- Author:
- Wolfram Lacher
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- Since 2015, the coastal city of Zawiya has witnessed endemic violence, but never an all-out war between its main forces. Due to this, the city has become emblematic of Libya’s power struggles. Despite its significance, however, no in-depth studies exist on its armed groups and their evolution. A Political Economy of Zawiya: Armed Groups and Society in a Western Libyan City—a new report from the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment In North Africa (SANA) project—seeks explanations to this puzzle in the economic interests of armed groups and their varying relations with local society, and shows how Zawiya’s armed groups gradually came to take on a particularly abusive and predatory character.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Economy, Armed Forces, and Society
- Political Geography:
- Libya, North Africa, and Zawiya
332. Persistent Perils: Illicit MANPADS in the MENA Region
- Author:
- Matt Schroeder
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- Since 1970, armed groups have hit dozens of civilian aircraft with man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS), killing more than 1,000 civilians. The international community has taken numerous steps to reduce illicit proliferation, but armed groups in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region continue to acquire and use these systems. Persistent Perils: Illicit MANPADS in the MENA Region—a new Report from the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment In North Africa (SANA) project—provides an in-depth analysis of the proliferation of MANPADS in North Africa and the Middle East from 2015–23. Drawing on imagery and data collected since 2015 to identify the type, model, generation, and country of design/manufacture of illicit MANPADS in the region, the Report assesses the implications of recent proliferation patterns for regional security and international norms and agreements.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Armed Forces, Weapons, Trafficking, and MANPADS
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa
333. Realities, Challenges, and Opportunities: The Arms Trade Treaty in the Indo-Pacific region
- Author:
- Andrea Edoardo Varisco, Manon Blancafort, Yulia Yarina, and David Atwood
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- The Indo-Pacific region, in all its vastness and diversity, presents many international security challenges. It is also a region with, thus far, limited engagement with the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT). Only 11 Indo-Pacific countries are currently states parties to the ATT, and nine states from the region have signed the Treaty but not yet ratified it. Realities, Challenges, and Opportunities: The Arms Trade Treaty in the Indo-Pacific Region—a new Report from the Small Arms Survey's project on the ATT in the Indo-Pacific region—provides in-depth analysis of the differing attitudes to the ATT as well as obstacles that hinder universalization and compliance in the region. Additionally, the Report outlines opportunities for stakeholders to change the dynamic of engagement with the ATT in this critical geostrategic region for major global politics.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Illegal Trade, and Arms Trade Treaty (ATT)
- Political Geography:
- Indo-Pacific
334. Global Terrorism Index 2024
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- This is the eleventh edition of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI), which provides a comprehensive summary of the key global trends and patterns in terrorism since 2012. The GTI report is produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), using data from Dragonfly’s TerrorismTracker database and other sources. In 2023, deaths from terrorism increased by 22 per cent to 8,352 deaths and are now at their highest level since 2017, although they remain 23 per cent lower than at their peak in 2015. Excluding the October 7th Hamas attack, deaths would have still been up by five per cent. Whilst the number of deaths increased, the number of incidents fell, with total attacks dropping by 22 per cent to 3,350 in 2023. Pakistan recorded the most incidents of any country, with 490 attacks recorded. The rise in deaths but fall in number of incidents shows how terrorism is becoming more concentrated and more lethal. The number of countries recording a death from terrorism fell to 41, considerably lower than the peak of 57 countries recorded in 2015 and the 44 recorded in 2022.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Peace, Organized Crime, Countering Violent Extremism, and October 7
- Political Geography:
- Sahel and Global Focus
335. Business & Peace Report 2024
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- This report examines the relationship between a country's economic performance and its level of peacefulness. The key finding is that peace serves as a reliable predictor of a country's future macro-economic trajectory, creating a business environment that provides superior returns to global averages. This represents a valuable insight for informing strategic investment decisions and offering a multitude of applications for businesses and fund managers, including in the design of financial investment products. For corporations it can help to guide investment decisions into markets with lower risk and stronger growth potential.
- Topic:
- Economics, Business, Macroeconomics, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
336. Halo, Positive Peace and Systems Thinking 2024: Advancing a Systems-Based Approach to Understanding and Building Peace
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) is dedicated to advancing the understanding of the operations of societal systems. To this end, this report brings together research conducted by IEP over the last decade and includes two conceptual approaches that are distinct but highly compatible: Positive Peace and Halo. These two concepts guide the organisation’s research, mission, and theory of social change. In addition, the report covers other related work including attempts to measure national intent, predict future substantial declines in peace, and to measure societal shocks and resilience in relation to the ecology.
- Topic:
- Economics, Peace, Resilience, and Systems Thinking
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
337. Positive Peace Report 2024
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- Peace is more than the absence of violence. Positive Peace describes the attitudes, institutions and structures that create and sustain peaceful societies. It is conceptually related to many aspects of social development and can be used in multiple contexts. In addition to being a transformative concept, it is also a social good. When combined with systems thinking Positive Peace is a transformational concept as it envisages new ways of understanding how societies operate and how to develop thriving communities. Toward this end, the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) developed the Positive Peace Index (PPI), a statistically derived measure of the factors that create flourishing societies, which is based on eight Pillars of Positive Peace. The concept of Positive Peace as well as general PPI results, including rankings and changes over time, are the focus of this report.
- Topic:
- Economics, Sustainability, Resilience, and Positive Peace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
338. Mexico Peace Index 2024
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- This is the 11th edition of the Mexico Peace Index (MPI), produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP). It provides a comprehensive measure of peacefulness in Mexico, including trends, analysis, and estimates of the economic impact of violence. The MPI is based on the Global Peace Index, the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness, produced by IEP every year since 2007. The MPI consists of 12 sub-indicators aggregated into five major indicators. Mexico’s peacefulness improved by 1.4 percent in 2023. This was the fourth straight year of improvement, following four consecutive years of deteriorations. However, more states deteriorated than improved, with 15 states improving and 17 deteriorating.
- Topic:
- Economics, Violence, Peace, and Organized Crime
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, North America, and Mexico
339. Global Peace Index 2024
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- This is the 18th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness, covering 99.7 per cent of the world’s population. Produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. This report presents the most comprehensive data-driven analysis to-date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies. The GPI uses 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources and measures the state of peace across three domains: the level of Societal Safety and Security; the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict; and the degree of Militarisation. This year it introduces a new measure of global military capability that incorporates military sophistication, technology, and battle readiness into a single measure. The report finds that many of the conditions that precede major conflicts are higher than they have been since the end of the Second World War. There are currently 56 active conflicts, the most since the end of Second World War, and with fewer conflicts being resolved, either militarily or through peace agreements. The number of conflicts that ended in a decisive victory fell from 49 per cent in the 1970s to nine per cent in the 2010s, while conflicts that ended through peace agreements fell from 23 per cent to four per cent over the same period.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Peace, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
340. Multilateralism Index 2024
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- There are growing calls to transform the multilateral system, which is widely seen as being in crisis. Yet solving the crisis of multilateralism requires understanding what that crisis entails. What parts of the multilateral system are in crisis, and what parts are still functioning? Where is commitment to multilateralism flagging, and where does it remain strong? Where is multilateral action failing to translate into concrete results, and where is it delivering? Who is being left out of multilateral engagement, and who is being included? And what are the trends over time? To help answer these questions, the International Peace Institute (IPI) and the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) developed the Multilateralism Index. This 2024 edition of the Index assesses changes in international cooperation between 2013 and 2023 across five domains: Peace and Security, Human Rights, Climate Action, Public Health, and Trade. Each domain is evaluated across three dimensions: Participation, Performance, and Inclusivity
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Human Rights, Multilateralism, Peace, Trade, Public Health, and International Order
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
341. China Maritime Report No. 42: Invasion Plans: Operation Causeway and Taiwan's Defense in World War II
- Author:
- Ian Easton
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
- Abstract:
- During World War II, the United States and the Empire of Japan each developed plans and marshaled forces for a climactic battle over Taiwan. Both sides regarded the island as an area of strategic consequence. Code-named Operation CAUSEWAY, the American invasion of Taiwan would have been the largest amphibious campaign in the Pacific Theater and the largest sea-air-land engagement in world history. Strategists in Japan believed the attack was coming and designed a blueprint for the defense of Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands called SHO-GO(捷 2 号作戦, or “Operation Victory No. 2”), which envisioned a bloody campaign of annihilation. Japanese camouflage, concealment, and deception efforts in Taiwan were effective at hiding many capabilities from American intelligence. In recent years, Taiwanese military officers have drawn lessons from Taiwan’s wartime history to improve their defense plans. They highlight the need to stockpile, update beach defenses, mobilize whole-of-society support, expand underground bunker complexes, and prepare for a long fight and layered defense campaign. One important lesson of this history for the U.S. Navy and Joint Force is that deterrence worked before. It can work again. Under certain circumstances, the United States and Taiwan may be capable of preventing a PRC invasion of the island. But a tremendous amount of hard work will be needed to realize that goal. By revisiting the history of Taiwan-focused war plans, we may better assess current challenges and develop insights that could inform future strategic, operational, and tactical decisions.
- Topic:
- History, Military Affairs, Maritime, World War II, People's Liberation Army (PLA), Invasion, and Operation Causeway
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America
342. China Maritime Report No. 41: One Force, Two Force, Red Force, Blue Force: PLA Navy Blue Force Development for Realistic Combat Training
- Author:
- J. Michael Dahm
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
- Abstract:
- Since the mid-2010s, there has been a concerted effort to professionalize a PLAN “blue force” as an opposition force, or OPFOR, in maritime exercises and training. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) routinely refers to its blue forces as metaphorical “whetstones” used to sharpen the PLA for a future fight against enemies of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Efforts to develop a PLAN blue force appear to have accelerated over the past several years in response to Chairman Xi Jinping’s decade-long demand for more realistic combat training. This report examines recent developments in the PLAN’s blue force. It comprises four sections. Part one provides background on PLAN efforts to professionalize its maritime blue force. Part two describes the PLAN’s blue force training units. Part three examines companies producing equipment and virtual environments for China’s blue force units, while part four discusses current blue force capabilities. The report concludes with a summary of findings and implications for the United States, its allies, and partners.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Maritime, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Military Training
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
343. China Maritime Report No. 40: Onboard Political Control - The Ship Political Commissar in Chinese Merchant Shipping
- Author:
- Conor M. Kennedy
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
- Abstract:
- Since the creation of the People’s Republic of China’s merchant fleet, the Chinese Communist Party has implemented a system of political control aboard oceangoing vessels through ship Party branches and ship political commissars. This report focuses on the ship political commissar, a Party representative assigned to oceangoing merchant ships, particularly within state-owned shipping enterprises, to carry out political and administrative work in the management of ship crews. Having peaked in authority and power during the Cultural Revolution, the ship political commissar position has evolved over the decades following economic reforms in the 1980s. Despite years of problematic implementation, the ship political commissar system is currently undergoing a revitalization in staterun shipping companies. The position has supporting roles to play in carrying out national tasking such as evacuations of overseas Chinese citizens. Most ship political commissars are former PLA officers. Chinese roll-on/roll-off ferry operators constitute a special case where the ship political commissar may have greater authority in the ship hierarchy and potentially a role in supporting PLA use of those vessels. This report focuses on the ship political commissar system over the last 20 years, providing a needed update on this understudied topic in the English-language literature.
- Topic:
- History, Political Parties, Shipping, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
344. China Maritime Report No. 39: A Hundred Men Wielding One Gun - Life, Duty, and Cultural Practices Aboard PLAN Submarines
- Author:
- Conor M. Kennedy
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
- Abstract:
- Submarine performance is not just measured in technical terms, but also in how crews operate over time. As the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) increasingly deploys its submarine force beyond the near seas on long-distance combat readiness and training missions, studying the force’s human components benefits a broader understanding its overall effectiveness. This report explores work and living conditions, crew endurance, service culture, political requirements, and approaches to resolving human issues in the submarine force. An inherently dangerous and challenging profession, the submarine force has gradually developed numerous solutions to address various challenges to prevent non-combat attrition among crews. Life and duty in the “Dragon Palace,” both an internal joke and the overarching embodiment of PLAN submarine culture, reveals a professional community focused on secrecy, safety, and expertise that is working to enhance its human performance.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Navy, Submarines, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
345. China Maritime Report No. 38: PLAN Anti-Submarine Warfare Aircraft - Sensors, Weapons, and Operational Concepts
- Author:
- Eli Tirk and Daniel Salisbury
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
- Abstract:
- The PLA Navy recognizes the importance of a robust anti-submarine warfare (ASW) system to counter adversaries seeking undersea asymmetric advantages, and its aviation component is a key part of that system. This report discusses the PLAN's efforts to improve its airborne ASW platforms and equipment and describes how PLAN-affiliated sources discuss the employment of those assets. The PLAN's significant buildup and growing employment of fixed-wing maritime patrol aircraft in recent years are key indicators of the importance it attaches to the airborne ASW mission set, as is its push to acquire improved sensors on both fixed and rotary wing ASW platforms. PLAN-affiliated authors show that its academic and operational components are coordinating to explore best practices and maximize the effectiveness of these assets across a wide array of ASW scenarios.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Navy, Submarines, People's Liberation Army (PLA), Warfare, and Aircraft
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
346. China Maritime Report No. 37: Re-Engaging With the World: China's Military Diplomacy in 2023
- Author:
- Jie Gao and Kenneth W. Allen
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
- Abstract:
- China’s military diplomacy plays a crucial role in advancing the nation's foreign policy objectives and safeguarding its strategic interests. This report highlights a diverse array of activities within military diplomacy, including senior-level meetings, joint military exercises, naval port calls, UN peacekeeping operations, and academic exchanges. Our findings reveal a significant—but incomplete—recovery in China's military diplomacy activities in 2023, following a period of reduced contacts with foreign militaries during the COVID-19 pandemic. Southeast Asia and Russia remain primary partners for China, with emerging strategic importance also seen in Africa, Oceania, and the Middle East. Overall, China's military diplomacy underscores its efforts to diversify partnerships and assert its global influence, emphasizing regional stability and international cooperation in pursuit of its diplomatic goals.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, United Nations, Peacekeeping, COVID-19, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Military Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Asia, and Southeast Asia
347. China Maritime Report No. 36: China's T-AGOS: The Dongjian Class Ocean Surveillance Ship
- Author:
- Devin Thorne
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
- Abstract:
- Since 2017, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has commissioned a new class of ocean surveillance vessel into its order of battle: the Type 927. Similar in design and function to the U.S. Navy’s Victorious and Impeccable class T-AGOS ships, the Type 927 was introduced to help remedy the PLAN’s longstanding weakness in anti-submarine warfare. The PLAN has likely built six Type 927 ships to date, most based for easy access to the South China Sea. In peacetime, these ships use their towed array sonar to collect acoustic data on foreign submarines and track their movements within and beyond the first island chain. In wartime, Type 927 vessels could contribute to PLAN anti-submarine warfare operations in support of a range of different maritime campaigns. However, their lack of self-defense capabilities would make them extremely vulnerable to attack.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Navy, Maritime, Surveillance, Submarines, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
348. China Maritime Report No. 35: Beyond Chinese Ferry Tales: The Rise of Deck Cargo Ships in China's Military Activities, 2023
- Author:
- J. Michael Dahm
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
- Abstract:
- This report provides a comprehensive assessment of Chinese civilian shipping support to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), examining civil maritime-military activities in 2023. As of 2023 and probably through at least 2030, the PLA’s reserve fleet of civilian ships is probably unable to provide the amphibious landing capabilities or the over-the-shore logistics in austere or challenging environments necessary to support a major cross-strait invasion of Taiwan. However, 2023 activity has demonstrated significant progress toward that end. In addition to the extensive use of civilian ferries, this report identifies the first use of large deck cargo ships to support PLA exercises. While not as capable as large, ocean-going ferries, China’s civil fleet boasts dozens of large deck cargo ships and may provide the PLA with the lift capacity necessary to eventually support a large crossstrait operation. This report also discusses other civil maritime-military activities including “surge lift events,” coordination and synchronization of multi-theater events, floating causeway developments, and the dedicated use of civilian ships for intra-theater military logistics.
- Topic:
- Maritime, Shipping, Logistics, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
349. China Maritime Report No. 34: PLAN Submarine Training in the "New Era"
- Author:
- Christopher Sharman and Terry Hess
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
- Abstract:
- Since 2018, there have been significant changes to People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) submarine force training, and these changes have been driven by important revisions to strategic guidance and subsequent directives that focused PLA efforts to enhance its capabilities to operate in the maritime domain. While this guidance is applicable to all services, improving PLAN submarine force capabilities appears to have been of particular interest to senior Chinese leadership. This guidance expanded the PLA’s maritime domain requirements, which demanded that China’s submarine force improve its capabilities to operate independently or along with other PLAN assets at greater distances from coast and in the far seas. This has resulted in submarine training that is more realistic, rigorous, and standardized across the fleet. Though stressful on submarine equipment and crews, these changes to training may ultimately yield a more combat-capable submarine fleet operating throughout the western Pacific.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Navy, Maritime, Submarines, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Military Training
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
350. Senegal’s Gas-to-Power Ambitions: Securing Scale and Sustainability
- Author:
- Papa Daouda Diene, Thomas Scurfield, Aaron Sayne, and Jessica Obeid
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- Senegal will benefit from generating electricity from some of its gas, but authorities should carefully consider the scale of the country’s “gas-to-power” ambitions and how they relate to its renewable energy plans. This is a pivotal moment for achieving the government’s energy and sustainable development objectives. Recent plans to develop over 3 gigawatts (GW) of gas-to-power capacity by 2050 may face obstacles. Senegal may not be able to extract enough gas to feed the power plants; it may also struggle to raise sufficient funds (at least USD 2.2 billion) to build the necessary infrastructure. A more balanced energy mix, with a stronger emphasis on renewables alongside gas, offers Senegal a more secure pathway, but necessitates a cohesive long-term strategy and international support. Senegal’s participation in a Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) has led to increased medium-term renewable power generation goals—possibly to around 1 GW by 2030. To reach them, Senegal’s development partners must deliver the promised financial and technical support. If Senegal realizes only those plans that are published, gas will comprise 75 percent of installed capacity in the long term. The absence of a long-term plan for renewables could lock the country into this large role for gas, inhibiting the intended catalytic effect of the JETP and preventing the government from fully leveraging the country’s solar and wind potential. A more transparent and inclusive approach will help Senegal’s government to refine and implement its energy plans, helping to manage public expectations, foster public trust and increase credibility with investors.
- Topic:
- Gas, Fossil Fuels, Sustainability, and Energy Transition
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Senegal