Content Type: Special Report / Publication Year: 3 selected

1. Economic Priorities in Post-war Ukraine

Author:: Dmytro Boyarchuk
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Ukraine has been a stellar example of a little reform going a long way. First invaded by Russia in 2014, the Ukraine of 2022 was a different country, with more resilience, more ability, and more depth. As it pushes to repel the Russian aggressor, it is never too early to think about how Ukraine can continue its reform process and become a state that is free of Russia, economically strong, and a model for policy reform. The ways in which Ukraine can attain this goal are contained in the economic roadmap, “Economic Priorities in Post-war Ukraine,” produced by Ukrainian experts and world-class policy advisors under CASE-Center for Social Research and CASE Ukraine and funded by agencies from around Europe and the United States. This report focuses on the essential reforms that will help Ukraine with the post-war reconstruction, as well as enable progress in its efforts on the way to EU membership. Over 30 years of independence, Ukraine has launched almost all of the necessary reforms to build and develop a market economy. In 2014, Ukraine signed the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, and substantial progress has been demonstrated since then. However, the country fought against a legacy of start-stop reforms and inattention to major objectives such as building the rule of law and encouraging private sector competition. Before the full-scale Russian invasion, it had been making progress in institutional reforms but still had far to go. This report addresses many of the complex tasks that Ukraine needs to complete, with the main challenge being the rule of law, a problem lasting for three decades. Our team of experts propose specific mechanisms to make the transition to a country which respects the rule of law, including ways to improve the judiciary, respect property rights, and encourage private sector competition. The report also examines the question on how the Ukrainian government can attract funding and rebuild the country after the war is over, discussing ways in which the EU and the donor community can be involved. The eventual end of the war also provides Ukraine with a unique opportunity to leap ahead in the European integration process and to finish its institutional reforms. With Ukraine now a candidate for EU membership, the prospects of the integration process, the unprecedented support for integration with the EU in Ukrainian society and the continued support of the West, present Ukraine with a way forward and overcoming the obstacles that have delayed, stalled, or even caused the abandonment of reforms in the past.
Topic:: Development, Reform, Economy, Institutions, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

2. Addressing Product Diversification in Public Housing Supply/Importance of Product Diversification in Public Housing Supply

Author:: Shubhagato Dasgupta, Anindita Mukherjee, Abhinav Kumar, and Shaurya Gupta
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: Despite the government’s efforts on augmenting the supply of houses, recent estimates suggest that the housing shortage in urban areas have widened. It is a result of the mismatch between the housing needs of the urban poor and the typology of housing supply. The present study analyses and assesses the housing needs of the urban poor using secondary data from 76th round of NSS (2018-19) on housing and living condition vis-à-vis the typologies of housing supplied by public sector. Through this analysis, we highlight in the report the mismatch between the need and supply of public housing and suggest ways to bridge this gap through policy interventions. The choice of housing, its tenure and location for the urban poor is guided by nature of employment they are engaged in, their stage of life and household size. We find that casual wage workers and urban poor are more likely to compromise on housing conditions, amenities, and privacy to locate themselves near to their livelihood opportunities. Urban housing for urban poor is predominantly supplied by the small households that form part of the informal sector however, the quality of housing remains a concern. Housing provided by formal private sector is a miniscule proportion of total housing constructed by them and is not affordable for most urban poor. The current public housing supply is designed to cater to the urban poor remains mostly at the periphery of the cities making them less desirable to the targeted population – lacks tenure diversity and often disrupts livelihoods linages. The study recommends that public sector should focus on diversifying their housing supply based on the needs of urban poor. It should strive to create a robust housing ecosystem that is responsive to the urban growth, evolving economic structure of the city as well as local preference and aspirations. It should also establish modalities for collaboration with formal private sector to develop newer models of public-private partnerships that also involves and incentivizes, informal private sector, especially the small households that are categorized as subsistence landlords, non-profit sector and communities, to supply better quality housing for the urban poor residents.
Topic:: Poverty, Public Policy, Diversification, Urban, and Housing
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

3. Decoding Digitalization of Urban Governance in India Policy, People and Processes of the Smart Cities Mission and National Urban Digital Mission

Author:: Khaliq Parkar and Uttara Purandare
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: The presence of digital technology within urban governance in India is not new. Computerization and the use of enterprise software was encouraged in municipalities through the 1990s, followed by varied e-governance reforms in the early 2000s. These ranged from centralized policies like the National e-Governance Plan (NeGP), to projects such as the Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM), and city and state initiatives such as online billing and certification services for citizens and GIS platforms for administrators. The Smart Cities Mission (SCM) launched in 2015, gave a substantial and centralized push for digital interventions by choosing 100 cities to create “smart solutions” for urban governance, planning, and digital infrastructures. These were seen as “lighthouse” cities, expected to create technology-centric solutions that could be emulated by other cities in the mission.
Topic:: Governance, Urban, Smart Cities, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

4. The Evolution of India’s Welfare System from 2008-2023: A Lookback

Author:: Centre for Policy Research
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: In the 15 years that have gone by, India has seen a significant transition in the social sector, and lived through a pandemic. At the Accountability Initiative, Centre for Policy Research, we have tracked the provision of welfare services and entitlements since 2008, in-step with the country’s evolution over these years. The year 2023 marks a moment to pause and reflect for us as we celebrate our 15th anniversary, and the Centre for Policy Research reaches its milestone of 50 years. But, aside from our legacy of evidence-based knowledge sharing, this reflection is important in one more way. In 2024, India will choose a new government. A lookback on welfare spending and outcomes is an essential first step to understanding future priorities and pathways to development. Drawing from previous Union Budgets, this Special Brief will dive into six major aspects. Firstly, reviewing the sources of funding available with the government. Secondly, analysing trends in expenditures including social sector allocations for key ministries and schemes. Thirdly, the devolution of funds to states who are primary spenders on welfare services. Fourthly, unpacking social sector schemes over the years. Fifthly, analysing select outputs and outcomes over time. Lastly, we offer our own experience by providing a snapshot of the changes in government Management Information Systems which are critical to monitoring welfare schemes, among other aspects. For the purpose of this Special Brief, we are covering the period from 2009-2023. Actual Government of India (GoI) expenditures have been used till Financial Year (FY) 2020-21. For FY 2021-22, figures are Revised Estimates (REs) and Budget Estimates (BEs) for FY 2022-23.
Topic:: History, Governance, Budget, Welfare, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

5. Are Immigrants a Threat? Most Americans Don’t Think So, but Those Receptive to the “Threat” Narrative Are Predictably More Anti-immigrant

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: Joe Biden campaigned on a commitment to reverse many of the Trump administration’s strictest anti-immigration policies. Though many of these policies have either been reversed or halted — including the travel ban for people from various countries, the ban on temporary work visas, and the expansion of the public charge rule, among others —some remain in place.[1] One such policy is a public health rule known as Title 42, which allows for the immediate expulsion of migrants at the border in order to control the spread of COVID-19. The rule was set to be lifted in late December, but its suspension was delayed by the Supreme Court owing to public backlash and fears that illegal border crossings would increase significantly.[2] Meanwhile, independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and Republican Sen. Thom Tillis have proposed legislation that would both extend Title 42 and provide a pathway to citizenship for two million people who were illegally brought to the United States as children and are now classified as “Dreamers.” The proposal also includes new resources to speed the processing of asylum seekers.[3] As politicians struggle with how to address immigration issues, Americans’ views on immigration have become increasingly polarized, with Republicans becoming significantly more anti-immigrant in their attitudes over the past few years. Republicans have continually attacked the Biden administration’s handling of immigration, claiming that his policies will increase the flow of immigrants over the southern border and calling for U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas to resign. These criticisms are expected to increase now that Republicans have regained control of the House of Representatives.[4] Though the Trump-era narrative still resonates among certain portions of the American public, this report reveals that majorities of Americans do not view immigrants as a threat. But people who are more likely to think of immigrants as a threat — including those who most trust conservative media sources and Fox News — they are considerably more anti-immigrant and less supportive of open immigration policies.
Topic:: Politics, Immigration, Border Control, and Nativism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

6. Advancing Equity: Mentorship in Peace and Security

Author:: Kimberly Gillies
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation (WCAPS)
Abstract:: In this report, we synthesize findings from original interviews and extensive research into what makes an effective DEI strategy, the impact of mentorship —particularly on people of color—and how to elevate equity-focused mentoring within the fields of peace, security, and foreign policy. We close with a recommendation to CRAVE mentoring opportunities by founding, joining, or supporting initiatives that: create opportunity for cross-identity contact; establish responsibility structures; cultivate social accountability for involvement; are voluntary; and engage participants in their evolution.
Topic:: Security, Women, Diversity, Peace, Inclusion, Equity, People of Color (POC), and Mentorship
Political Geography:: Global Focus

7. Citizens’ Perceptions on Public Safety and Threats to National Security in Kosovo

Author:: Dea Fetiu and Dorjeta Rukiqi
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: The following Western Balkans Security Barometer (WBSB) report provides a thorough analysis of respondents’ perception of potential threats to their public safety and national security in Kosovo in 2022. Respondents feel generally safe in their close communities. Nevertheless, the sense of safety gradually decreases as the communities grow larger. Around 77 percent of the respondents declared that they feel safe in their houses, while they feel the least safe in their country (around 33 percent). Respondents’ perceptions between 2021 and 2022 indicate a slow decrease in their feeling of public safety; whereby in the previous 2021 WBSB, 79 percent and 40 percent of respondents stated that they feel safe in their homes and in their country, respectively. On the other hand, almost half of the respondents feel safe on the cyberspace. Brain drain is ranked as the highest threat to public safety, with 83 percent of the respondents viewing it as a threat or high threat to their respective communities. Stray animals and drug abuse are also perceived as highly threatening phenomena. Moreover, respondents are generally concerned about shortages of necessities, however, they express the biggest concerns about the shortages of electricity. On the national level, respondents see the increased prices of goods as the highest threat towards Kosovo’s national security, followed closely by the energy crisis. Pollution and climate change, violent extremism, and COVID-19 are seen as the lowest threats to national security. When asked if COVID-19 continues to endanger public health, almost half of the respondents answered negatively. Further, COVID-19 was ranked as the lowest threat to Kosovo’s national security. Opinions are somewhat divided when it comes to the efficiency of the COVID-19 vaccine on hindering the pandemic; yet 45 percent of respondents believe that the vaccine contributed to curb the pandemic. According to the survey data, the main causes of domestic violence in Kosovo are poor economic conditions and low levels of education. Respondents believe that raising the quality of education, and organizing more raising awareness campaigns are some of the measures that need to be taken by institutions to prevent and fight domestic violence.
Topic:: National Security, Public Opinion, and Public Safety
Political Geography:: Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

8. Monitoring Progress on the Women, Peace and Security Agenda

Author:: Robert U. Nagel, David Guzman, and Carla Koppel
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:: To advance the WPS Agenda and monitor progress, in 2019 the governments of Finland and Spain initiated Commitment 2025 (C-25). The member countries agreed to track their efforts to increase the meaningful and substantive participation of women along nine specific commitments related to conflict prevention and resolution, negotiation and mediation processes. This agreement currently has 13 signatories: Finland, Spain, Norway, Iceland, Germany, Italy, Belgium, United Kingdom, Bulgaria, Namibia, Canada, Uruguay, and Argentina. The Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS) has partnered with C-25 members to track progress toward the commitments. To increase transparency and accountability while also providing metrics for progress, we collected and analyzed data on women’s representation in political governance, diplomatic, and peace and security institutions. We combined data from various sources to generate analysis and insights about the status of progress on C-25 commitments. Findings indicate that concerted efforts are needed to reach targets by 2025. Despite some progress, women’s participation and meaningful inclusion in matters of peace and security is still lacking. Governments can and must do better including and empowering women in peace and security institutions and processes. The data underscore the importance of continued dedication to women’s empowerment and the importance of holding governments accountable through monitoring progress.
Topic:: Security, Women, Accountability, Peace, Transparency, and Monitoring
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Canada, Finland, Norway, Argentina, Uruguay, Germany, Belgium, Bulgaria, Spain, Italy, Iceland, and Namibia

9. Toward Inclusive Recovery in Ukraine: Engaging Women and Civil Society in Ukraine’s Relief, Recovery, and Reconstruction

Author:: Jess Keller
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:: Women’s participation in the design and implementation of Ukraine’s recovery programs is critical to maximize the effectiveness of the reconstruction process, take into account differentiated needs, and bolster post-conflict development. Key recommendations: Promote women’s participation, leadership, and decision-making in Ukraine’s planning frameworks and recovery process. Ensure new funding enables women’s active participation in Ukraine’s recovery and advances gender equality. Establish a gender-sensitive monitoring mechanism for the Ukrainian government to report on recovery progress and collect and analyze sex-disaggregated data. Prioritize the re-establishment of critical social infrastructure and services. Integrate gender equality in Ukraine’s EU accession commitments.
Topic:: Civil Society, Reconstruction, Women, Recovery, Participation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

10. Worsening Risk of Mass Atrocities in South Sudan

Author:: Sarah McIntosh and Naomi Kikoler
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: The United States Holocaust Memorial Museum's Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide published a report in February 2022 detailing the immediate risk of mass atrocities facing South Sudanese civilians.1 Since then, threats facing South Sudanese civilians have worsened and the government of South Sudan has failed to take action to mitigate these threats.2 Attacks against civilians have continued, leading thousands of people to be killed, injured, or displaced. Experts told Simon-Skjodt Center staff that they feared the world's youngest country would slip back into full scale war. This stems from both the highly complex conflict dynamics throughout the country with different geographic regions experiencing unique forms of violence from distinct perpetrators as well as the South Sudanese government's recent decision to delay for two years the deadline for implementing the peace agreement and for conducting national elections. Their actions suggest that those most responsible for past abuses may intend to cling to power and evade justice for their actions. The need to take decisive preventative and protective action is urgent.
Topic:: Impunity, Civilians, Atrocities, Armed Conflict, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

11. Using Targeted Sanctions to Help Prevent Mass Atrocities: Results from Interviews with Experienced Practitioners

Author:: Tallan Donine, Kyra Fox, Daniel Solomon, Alex Vandermaas-Peeler, and Lawerence Woocher
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: The Simon-Skjodt Center’s “lessons learned” project aims to understand better how policy makers, across all levels of government, can take effective action to prevent mass atrocity crimes and protect civilian populations in situations where they face serious threats of group-targeted, systematic violence. We have sought to identify, distill, and organize insights on a range of policy tools—ranging from “naming and shaming” to sanctions to prosecutions—which are sometimes used to help prevent or respond to mass atrocities. To complement our review of the empirical research literature on the use of targeted sanctions, we conducted interviews with people who had substantial policy or operational experience working in the US government on targeted sanctions prior to 2021. The premise for the interviews is that experienced practitioners have important insights about when and how targeted sanctions can be most effective in helping prevent mass atrocities.3 While one can find many ideas about how to use targeted sanctions most effectively, none that we are aware of are: (1) focused specifically on the use of targeted sanctions for mass atrocity prevention and (2) based on the collective perspectives of a set of experienced practitioners. This report summarizes the results of the interviews with experienced targeted sanctions practitioners. Details on the methods employed and the interview respondents are presented in appendices.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Sanctions, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Global Focus

12. Social Media Platforms, the Risks of Mass Atrocities, and Opportunities for Atrocity Prevention: 2023 Sudikoff Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention

Author:: Tallan Donine
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: On January 19 and 24, the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide at the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum brought together a diverse group of scholars, representatives of social media companies, practitioners, and policy makers for two 90-minute virtual convenings to discuss social media platforms, the risks of mass atrocities, and opportunities for atrocity prevention. Motivations for this seminar included (1) taking stock of knowledge about the relationship between social media, mass atrocities, and atrocity prevention; (2) generating new ideas for future research or practice on this topic; and (3) exploring how the Simon-Skjodt Center can play a constructive role in this area. This rapporteur’s report summarizes key observations raised during both discussions under the Chatham House rule of non-attribution and does not necessarily represent the views of all participants. The first session focused on exploring the interaction between social media platforms and risks of mass atrocities. Guiding questions included: • How might social media platforms contribute to risk factors associated with mass atrocities? • How might perpetrators use social media platforms to enact mass atrocities? • How might the relationship between social media platforms and mass atrocities change in the future? The second session focused on social media platforms and the prevention of mass atrocities. Guiding questions included: • How do technology firms and others understand the risks that social media platforms may inadvertently contribute to the commission of mass atrocities? • What steps have firms taken to date to address these risks? • What new or different actions can social media companies take to design and manage their platforms in ways that would help reduce risks of mass atrocities? • What type of regulation of social media platforms would most effectively balance interests in civil liberties and violence prevention?
Topic:: Genocide, Social Media, Atrocity Prevention, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13. Using Risk Analysis to Shape Border Management: A Review of Approaches during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:: Kelley Lee, Julianne Piper, and Jennifer Fang
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The near universal adoption of travel measures by governments to control the spread of COVID-19 has proved controversial during the pandemic. National responses have been highly varied and frequently changing, and the use of travel measures—ranging from advisories and screening to quarantine, testing, immunity certification, and restrictions on entry—has been poorly coordinated across jurisdictions. Particularly in the early stages of the crisis, this created chaos for travelers and the travel sector, and caused significant economic and social harms. Many governments also failed to clearly communicate the rationale for using travel measures, the evidence underpinning them, and the measures’ role within overall pandemic response strategies. There is now substantial evidence that these measures’ early and stringent use by some governments during the initial stages of the pandemic slowed the importation of the virus and reduced its onward transmission. Yet, there is also growing recognition of weaknesses in the quality of evidence available to inform policy decisions. Evaluating the appropriateness of travel measures and applying them effectively during future public-health emergencies will depend on international consensus on methodologies that lead to a more harmonized and coordinated approach and to greater public trust in policy decisions. This report presents a comparative analysis of 11 publicly available methodologies used to assess travel-related risks during the pandemic—those of Hong Kong, New Zealand, South Korea, Taiwan, United Kingdom, United States, International Civil Aviation Organization, International Air Transport Association, World Health Organization, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and European Union. It offers a set of lessons learned and recommendations, including a proposed decision instrument that could improve the use of risk analysis for border management during future public-health emergencies.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, International Organization, Governance, Border Control, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Global Focus, and United States of America

14. External Processing: A Tool to Expand Protection or Further Restrict Territorial Asylum?

Author:: Pauline de Oliveira and Nicholas Feith Tan
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Access to territorial asylum is under significant pressure in many corners of the world. Pushbacks at borders as well as pandemic-era mobility restrictions have prevented many asylum seekers from reaching their destinations. And new and ongoing crises, including those in Afghanistan and Ukraine, have highlighted the need to offer protection closer to where vulnerable populations live, and for high-income countries to find ways to share responsibilities with the low- and middle-income countries that host the overwhelming majority of people in need of international protection. This has led to renewed interest in external processing, which involves conducting part or all of the asylum procedure outside a destination country’s territory. Notably, even as countries such as Australia and the United Kingdom have adopted policies to offshore asylum processing to countries such as Papua New Guinea and Rwanda in hopes of deterring spontaneous arrivals, there is growing interest in using external processing in ways that complement existing territorial asylum and expand, rather than restrict, protection opportunities. This report—part of the Beyond Territorial Asylum: Making Protection Work in a Bordered World initiative led by MPI and the Robert Bosch Stiftung—highlights the opportunities that external processing offers as well as the challenges to its implementation and the risks it could pose to territorial asylum. It explores three categories of external processing policies implemented or proposed to date: humanitarian visas, emergency evacuations, and external processing centers. The report also identifies key conditions that must be present for external processing to occur in a protection-sensitive manner.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Governance, Refugees, Asylum, Visa, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Australia, Rwanda, Papua New Guinea, and Global Focus

15. Trusting AI: Integrating Artificial Intelligence into the Army’s Professional Expert Knowledge

Author:: C. Anthony Pfaff, Christopher J. Lowrance, Bre M. Washburn, and Brett A. Carey
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Integrating artificially intelligent technologies for military purposes poses a special challenge. In previous arms races, such as the race to atomic bomb technology during World War II, expertise resided within the Department of Defense. But in the artificial intelligence (AI) arms race, expertise dwells mostly within industry and academia. Also, unlike the development of the bomb, effective employment of AI technology cannot be relegated to a few specialists; almost everyone will have to develop some level of AI and data literacy. Complicating matters is AI-driven systems can be a “black box” in that humans may not be able to explain some output, much less be held accountable for its consequences. This inability to explain coupled with the cession to a machine of some functions normally performed by humans risks the relinquishment of some jurisdiction and, consequently, autonomy to those outside the profession. Ceding jurisdiction could impact the American people’s trust in their military and, thus, its professional standing. To avoid these outcomes, creating and maintaining trust requires integrating knowledge of AI and data science into the military’s professional expertise. This knowledge covers both AI technology and how its use impacts command responsibility; talent management; governance; and the military’s relationship with the US government, the private sector, and society.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Ethics, Artificial Intelligence, Army, Civil-Military Relations, and Data Science
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16. PLA Logistics and Sustainment: PLA Conference 2022

Author:: George R. Shatzer, Roger D. Cliff, Kenneth Allen, Joshua Arostegui, and Justin Boggess
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The US Army War College People’s Liberation Army Conference (PLA) Conference was held March 31 to April 2, 2022, at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The conference focused on PLA logistics and sustainment. As the PLA continues to build and modernize its combat forces, it is important to examine if the capabilities meant to support combat operations are also being developed. Specific topics included: 1) China’s national-level logistics, including how China mobilizes national resources for the military and how it provides joint logistics support to the PLA Theater Commands; 2) the logistics capabilities of the different PLA services, especially the Army, Navy, and Air Forces; 3) PLA logistics in China’s remote regions, such as airpower projection in the Western Theater Command along the Indian border; and, 4) the PLA’s ability to sustain overseas operations at its base in Djibouti. Despite notable potential shortfalls and points of friction, the PLA has successfully sustained counterpiracy maritime operations for many years and conducted noncombatant evacuation operations well-distant from China. It is increasingly able to move forces across the vast distances of China and conduct large training exercises. Far more must be known about PLA sustainment and logistics before the hard questions about PLA operational reach and endurance can be answered.
Topic:: International Relations, Defense Policy, Logistics, Mobilization, Military, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Power Projection
Political Geography:: China and Asia

17. Pakistan Security Report 2022

Author:: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:: In 2022, the number of terrorist attacks in Pakistan marked an increase of 27 percent from the previous year. The number of terrorist attacks in the country also continued to rise for the second consecutive year. A total of 262 terrorist attacks in Pakistan in the year – including 14 suicide bombings –claimed in all 419 lives and injured another 734 people. A 25 percent increase has been recorded in fatalities in the outgoing year as compared with 2021. Pak Institute for Peace Studies revealed these statistics in its annual “Pakistan Security Report 2022”. The report further noted that the proscribed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) was becoming a major irritant in Islamabad’s relations with the Taliban government in Kabul as the militant group remained one of the major actors of violence in Pakistan in the year 2022. Other critical actors of violence in 2022 were Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) and Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA). Over 60 percent of total terrorist attacks recorded in Pakistan in the year were perpetrated by these three militant groups. Similarly, about 95 percent of the total recorded terrorist attacks in Pakistan in 2022 concentrated in in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Governance, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Asia

18. Political Coalitions in Turkey in the Run-Up to the 2023 Elections

Author:: Aurélien Denizeau
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The year 2023, already marked by a deadly double earthquake in the south-east of the country in February, is the year of the centenary of the Republic, but above all an election year for Turkey. The general elections (parliamentary and presidential) will take place on May 14 and are unanimously considered to be crucial for the political future of the country. The electoral campaign is polarized around two major coalitions: the People’s Alliance, led by the presidential AKP and the MHP, which supports the re-election of President Erdoğan; and the Nation Alliance, formed by the main Kemalist party CHP with five other parties, and supporting Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as a presidential candidate. Two other coalitions are also present and could tip the election one way or the other: the Labor and Freedom Alliance, centered around the progressive and pro-Kurdish HDP, and the Ancestral Alliance, which supports the nationalist Sinan Oğan. While this political configuration may seem familiar to European observers – where cross-party coalitions are common, especially in parliamentary regimes – there are indications, such as the tensions between the İYİ Party and its partners in the Nation Alliance over support for Kılıçdaroğlu, that call into question the nature of these coalitions: are they motivated by ideological proximity, or are they merely tactical tools for gaining power? In particular, these coalitions seem to derive from the nature of the Turkish political regime and its evolution over the last decade, with an ultra-presidentialization of the system under the successive presidential terms of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan which has led all political actors to position themselves in relation to his personal power. As socio-economic conditions weaken the AKP’s electoral base, the prospects for this election seem more open than ever.
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, AKP, and Coalition
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

19. The Strategic Repositioning of LNG: Implications for Key Trade Routes and Choke Points

Author:: Leslie Palti-Guzman and Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: 2022 saw the climax so far of the weaponization of energy. Following its geopolitical demise, Russia has undertaken its own gas amputation, moving from a super energy power status to a diminished role with uncertain prospects and only hard options left. Russia has cut off almost entirely pipeline gas supplies to the European Union (EU), first inflicting huge financial pain and collecting record high revenues, but then simply losing out its largest and best market with no realistic alternative, and no prospect of any significant return. However, the Kremlin could still further reduce some of the remaining pipeline gas or liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies and thus cause some tensions in the markets. Russia also retains leverage on oil markets, where the Kremlin managed to cope with the embargo as well as the price cap and maintain the relationship with Saudi Arabia which drives OPEC+ decisions. Meanwhile, in 2022, the European energy system has managed to surprisingly adapt on the supply and demand side to the three shocks: the decoupling from Russian energy supplies, the hydropower generation crisis, and the French nuclear electricity crisis. Liquefied natural gas has made a comeback in Europe and has been a savior of industries, governments, and populations. The LNG corridor between the EU and the United States (U.S.) has become the most dominant LNG trade route in 2022. This came at a huge cost though – EU’s gas import bill soared ten times from 2020 and three times from 2021 levels. For 2023, the European gas balance is much more fragile, as the demand reduction potential has reached its limits, same for the ability to attract additional non-Russian exports to Europe, at a time when missing Russian volumes will probably reach 120 billion cubic meters (bcm), instead of about 77 bcm in 2022. More moderate price levels since November 2022 have clearly overshadowed this fundamental mismatch, especially as the weather has been mild and China was still struggling with the pandemic. With an additional 30-40 bcm of missing Russian gas to offset in 2023 compared to 2022, Europeans can be expected to benefit from an extra gas of around 20-25 bcm left in storages thanks to mild weather and available LNG. They have no choice but to continue saving energy in a hurry, that is both on gas and electricity. Gas demand in power generation had increased in the first nine months of 2022 before falling in Q4 2022, and well over 15 bcm can be saved here in 2023 as more nuclear is available altogether, alongside more renewables, and some coal. It will be critical to reduce peak loads though. The key improvement is in terms of logistics, with the massive new LNG import capacity deployed across Europe. Overall, EU’s import situation will be very tensed and fragile for the next winter. The key challenge is that EU’s gas supply security ultimately depends on the weather in Europe, China’s and Japan’s LNG demand, and weather or technical outages in the Gulf of Mexico or in other producers. Any slight disruptions in supplies can have major impacts. As a last resort, bringing back some Groningen supplies, no matter how politically sensitive this would be, must be considered and prepared. Large financial compensations and effective governmental action would notably be required to offset the hardships.
Topic:: European Union, Gas, Exports, Trade, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Europe

20. Russia’s Mining Strategy: Geopolitical Ambitions and Industrial Challenges

Author:: Florian Vidal
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: In addition to being a leading gas and oil power, Russia also possesses vast geological resources that place it among the world’s leading mining countries. Nevertheless, Russia’s largely privatized mining sector faces great and numerous restrictions relating to the obsolescence of its infrastructure, lack of investment and a shortage of qualified human resources in the industry, which may be further exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. To diversify its sources of revenue, whilst also obtaining new levers of geopolitical power, particularly in Africa, Moscow is seeking to revitalize this strategic industry. Russia may focus on several of its globally significant companies, particularly in the diamond, fertilizer and nickel sectors. It also plans to extend its mining activities by reinvesting in and modernizing historic sectors such as coal, or by developing new ones like lithium. In a context of growing global demand for critical metals and minerals in order to meet the challenge of the ecological and energy transition, what role can Russia play? Moscow intends to overcome the challenge of maintaining its economic and industrial autonomy in the face of the sanctions imposed by the West following its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The future of Russia’s mining industry may depend upon a reorientation away from its traditional Western markets and towards Asian countries, such as India, Malaysia, and Vietnam, which have decided to retain their economic ties with Russia. Will Russia’s mining policy bolster the implementation of the “pivot to Asia” that Moscow has talked of for several years?
Topic:: Natural Resources, Geopolitics, Diversification, Mining, Modernization, and Industry
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

21. China/United States: Europe off Balance

Author:: Thomas Gomart and Marc Hecker
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: As French President Emmanuel Macron (accompanied by Ursula von der Leyen) is on a state visit to China, some twenty Ifri researchers decipher the stakes of the U.S./China/Europe strategic triangle. This 16-text study follows Olaf Scholz’s visit to Beijing (November 2022) and precedes that of Emmanuel Macron (April 2023). It comes especially one year after the beginning of a geopolitical and geoeconomic shock of a rare magnitude: the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The War in Ukraine or the Return of Bloc Geopolitics? The war in Ukraine has broken ties between the European Union (EU) and Russia for the foreseeable future, particularly in the field of energy, though not without consequences in the Middle East, Africa, and the Indo-Pacific. Furthermore, this war has become the main show of active indirect confrontation between the United States—which has provided military support to Ukrainians, with help from its European allies—and China, which has supported Russia politically and economically. In February 2022, Moscow and Beijing declared their “no limits friendship”; in March 2023, Xi Jinping offered his personal support to Vladimir Putin after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest. In its position on the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis, presented in February 2023, China stated: “All parties should oppose the pursuit of one’s own security at the cost of others’ security, prevent bloc confrontation, and work together for peace and stability on the Eurasian Continent”. China is no more of a mediator than the United States: it would be unrealistic to believe so. We appear to be witnessing a return of bloc geopolitics, albeit in a starkly different context than that of the Cold War (1947-1991). Globalization has produced strong economic and technological interdependencies that make any prospect of decoupling very costly, if not impossible. Economic partners are no longer necessarily military allies, and vice versa. In other words, a gap is opening up between geopolitical perceptions and geoeconomic realities. The term “decoupling” is popular in the United States, though much less so elsewhere. The rejection of bloc geopolitics is particularly acute outside of the West, where a “pragmatic” approach to foreign policy is often promoted. The Saudi foreign minister summed this up during the World Policy Conference in December 2022: “Polarization is the last thing we need right now. […] We need to build bridges, strengthen connections, and find areas of cooperation”. A few months later, China pulled off an extraordinary diplomatic coup by brokering a deal to restore relations between Riyadh and Tehran. For the EU, the situation is particularly delicate: Europe is in the Western camp, but a severing of ties with Beijing would cause a crushing economic blow. In 2022, China accounted for more than 20% of the EU’s imports, while the United States accounted for around 12%. By 2030, the EU’s GDP is expected to rise to $20.5 trillion, compared to $30.5 trillion for the United States and $33.7 trillion for China. In January 2023, the President of the European Commission declared at Davos: “We still need to work and trade with China, especially when it comes to this transition. So, we need to refocus our approach on de-risking, rather than decoupling”. For its part, Beijing has encouraged European aspirations of “strategic autonomy”, understood in China as a form of detachment from the United States. At the same time, the EU is constantly strengthening its military, technological, financial and energy ties with the U.S. This collective study notes a hypothetical search for balance on the part of the Europeans, faced with a war on their territory (the Western peninsula of the heartland), who cannot escape Sino-American mechanisms, and who do not form a monolithic whole. It also analyzes the strategy of several important actors outside our continent, and shows that, from Ukraine to Taiwan, via Africa and the Middle East, Europeans have little room for maneuver. This is why the study proposes recommendations to try, at a crucial moment, to reinforce their positioning.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, European Union, and Industry
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and United States of America

22. The Sino-Russian Partnership Assumptions, Myths and Realities

Author:: Bobo Lo
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: When Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin announced a “no limits friendship” at their February 2022 summit, the message was that Beijing and Moscow had reached a new peak in relations. Yet Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has exposed the limits of Sino-Russian partnership and highlighted their sometimes diverging interests. Far from being an authoritarian alliance, this is a classic great power relationship centered in realpolitik. China and Russia are strategically autonomous actors, with fundamentally different attitudes toward international order. The Sino-Russian partnership remains resilient. Both sides recognize that it is too important to fail, especially given there are no viable alternatives to continuing cooperation. Nevertheless, the balance of power within the relationship is changing rapidly. Russia’s geopolitical and economic dependence on China is greater than ever. Although predictions of a clientelist relationship are premature, this widening inequality represents a major long-term source of weakness. The challenges Beijing and Moscow pose to Western interests are largely separate and should be addressed individually on their merits. Equally, it is naive to imagine that reaching out to either side could help loosen their strategic partnership. Western governments should focus instead on upping their own game—from revitalizing democracy and the rule of law at home to addressing universal threats such as climate change and food insecurity. Bobo Lo is an Associate Research Fellow with the Russia/NIS Center at Ifri. He is also a Non-Resident Fellow with the Lowy Institute, Sydney, Australia; and a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) in Washington, D.C. Previously, he was Head of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, and Deputy Head of Mission at the Australian Embassy in Moscow. Dr. Lo has written several books, including A Wary Embrace: What the China-Russia Relationship Means for the World (Penguin Australia, 2017); Russia and the New World Disorder (Brookings and Chatham House, 2015); and Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing and the New Geopolitics (Brookings and Chatham House, 2008).
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Asia

23. The Technology Policies of Digital Middle Powers

Author:: Alice Pannier
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Digital technology is an element of power in the international system as well as an area for competition among countries. Considering the economic weight and political voluntarism of the U.S., China, and the EU, those three poles of power have received a lot of attention when it comes to their technology policies. This study aims to shift our gaze toward countries outside of the trio. Digital middle powers are those countries that are caught in the middle of the power play in an emerging multipolar international system where digital technology is a determining factor of power. It also refers to countries with established or growing clout in digital technology, and which are regional leaders or global ones in certain sectors. The study provides a qualitative comparison of the technology policies of nine of the digital middle powers: Brazil, India, Israel, Japan, Kenya, Nigeria, Russia, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. It seeks to reflect the diversity of national technology policies, as well as to identify those countries’ convergences and divergences with Europe, the United States, and China. Each case study introduces national technology and digital innovation ecosystems, data policies, and the state of digital infrastructure. These elements serve to examine the strengths of the country’s private sector in technology, the government’s regulatory capacity, and the degree of digital development. The chapters then look at how the digital domain is embedded in the broader dynamics of their bilateral relations with the U.S., the EU, and China. A first conclusion is that digital middle powers can usefully be differentiated between rising digital powers and established ones. Established digital powers have well-developed ecosystems, regulations, and infrastructure, but they are all having to renew and re-focus their technology policies to remain relevant. By contrast, rising digital powers tend to have budding ecosystems in digital services and mobile applications, and large ongoing infrastructure development projects, albeit with limited or patchy regulatory capacity. When it comes to foreign relations, the study confirms well-identified trends whereby the EU’s influence occurs chiefly through the elaboration of norms; the U.S.’s via the strength of its digital services and private sector investment, as well as strong bilateral security ties; while China’s growing influence is underpinned by large infrastructure projects. All the countries studied are attempting to balance their relationships with U.S., China, and the EU. None, save for Russia, has outrightly “picked a side” and severed ties with one or two of the blocs.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Strategic Competition, 5G, and Middle Power
Political Geography:: Kenya, Russia, Japan, United Kingdom, India, Israel, South Korea, Brazil, and Nigeria

24. The Politics of New Cities: Diversification of Actors and Recentralization of State Power in the Case of Diamniadio

Author:: Sina Schlimmer
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The construction of new cities on the African continent is in vogue. From multifunctional urban hubs to eco-districts, the images that accompany the announcement of these projects promote an African urban future based on modernity and technology. This trend for urban planning that claims to make a clean sweep of pre-existing approaches is not unique to African countries, whose governments are inspired in particular by North African and Asian models. However, the promotion of new cities in Africa is part of the lively debate that has been going on for several years on the rapid urbanization of the continent's countries. The creation of modern cities, organized and corresponding to the urban planning standards of international metropolises, is presented as a means of avoiding haphazard, chaotic urban development. This paper offers a critical analysis of the policy of new cities based on an empirical study of the new urban pole of Diamniadio (PUD) in Senegal. Two key arguments are put forward in this paper. First, the analysis deconstructs the ex nihilo character of these urban projects and emphasizes that they are part of public policy trajectories. Due to its geo-economic and strategic position, Diamniadio has been at the heart of the Dakar region's territorial planning policies since at least the end of the 1990s. Secondly, new towns are far from being neutral and technical urban planning instruments; rather, they are political devices that convey interests and stimulate power games. By delimiting the boundaries of the PUD, which is presented as President Macky Sall's political footprint, the central government regains certain administrative powers, particularly in terms of land planning and allocation. In addition, the PUD reflects competition from foreign actors, both public and private, and the growing importance of emerging actors such as Turkey.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Governance, State, Urban, and Cities
Political Geography:: Africa and Senegal

25. Pakistan Security Report 2021

Author:: Safdar Sial, Muhammad Amir Rana, and Najam U Din
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:: While the political and security situation in neighboring Afghanistan is still fluid, concerns are growing inside Pakistan about the possible fallout including in terms of increased insecurity, border tensions, and militant violence. For one, the developments in Afghanistan had already started influencing Pakistan’s militant landscape in 2021 as the year witnessed not only an increase in terrorist attacks by the Pakistani Taliban in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa but also an intensified terrorist violence by Baloch insurgent groups mainly in Balochistan. Meanwhile, Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) province also emerged as one of the key actors of violence and instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan during the year. While the Afghan Taliban find it difficult to convince the world to recognize their government and activate/unfreeze financial channels, they are also finding it increasingly hard to address the domestic challenges mainly those linked to governance, security, and intra-Afghan reconciliation. Despite their repeated promises to not allow anyone to use the Afghan soil against Pakistan, the Afghan Taliban have yet not seriously considered to act against the TTP; except having facilitated the talks between Pakistani government and the TTP which have also not shown any successes so far. Nonetheless, there have been critical statements about Pakistan from some Taliban officials on multiple occasions about Pakistan’s democratic political system as well as fencing of the border by Pakistani security forces. Pakistan has eventually conveyed its concerns to the Afghan interim government about Afghan officials’ repeated efforts to damage the border fencing saying it was observing maximum restraint.
Topic:: Security, National Security, and International Security
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Middle East, and Asia

26. Taking Stock of Early Warning for Atrocity Prevention: Report from the 2021 Sudikoff Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention

Author:: Mollie Zapata
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: This report compiles essays from several leading experts who participated in the seminar series. We asked them to reflect on one or more key themes and offer recommendations for research and/or policy initiatives that could help current and future leaders address mass atrocities. The collection of essays comprises diverse perspectives and spans reflections on everything from technical approaches to forecasting to practical recommendations on communicating risk to the overall efficacy of forecasting projects. Quscondy-Mohamed Abdulshafi provides recommendations for how mass atrocity monitoring and preventive interventions can make use of social media-generated big data and artificial intelligence (AI), and suggests the need for a strategic collaboration between social media companies and mass atrocity research institutions. Chiara De Franco discusses warning as persuasion, including the importance of clarity and specificity in the content of the warnings, the relationship between the warners and those expected to act on the warning, and the importance of developing a warning strategy that fits into the “swirl of intelligence” continuously confronting policy makers. Håvard Hegre outlines and weighs the benefits of different prediction targets. He argues that the field should move towards “continuous multi-period incidence” (CMPI) targets to avoid arbitrary coding thresholds, enable models to better use available information, and allow for a more nuanced approach to uncertainty in evaluating and describing results. Victor Okorie addresses the role of researchers in situations where atrocity risk is present, and describes the ethical and logistical challenges of those seeking to conduct research where gatekeepers and conditions demand loyalty to the state. In such circumstances, Okorie argues that researchers are obligated to take on an activist role, portray both victims and perpetrators, and strive for objectivity and reflexivity. Clionadh Raleigh questions the assumption of many early warning and prediction models that more accurate, timely warnings will result in the prevention of conflict. She argues that global models attempt to create consistency across cases where none actually exists, and that projects' focus on catastrophic events misses the need for response to low-level threats. She recommends a revised approach to early warning focused on studying each unique environment. Paul Slovic provides an overview of three psychological mechanisms that impede the impact and effectiveness of early warnings: psychic numbing, pseudoinefficacy, and the prominence effect. He concludes with recommendations for those who have been (or may become) victims of atrocity crimes, government officials, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and the public.
Topic:: Political Violence, Social Media, Risk, Atrocities, and Monitoring
Political Geography:: Global Focus

27. Putting Migrant Reintegration Programs to the Test: A Road Map to a Monitoring System

Author:: Lucía Salgado, Radu-Mihai Triculescu, Camille Le Coz, and Hanne Beirens
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: European policymakers have renewed their commitment to increase returns of migrants determined not to have a right to stay in the European Union, and to cooperate with returnees’ countries of origin to support their reintegration. And as investments in assisted voluntary return and reintegration (AVRR) initiatives have grown, so too has pressure to demonstrate that these programs are living up to the high expectations for them. Yet there is little clarity, let alone consensus, on what “successful” reintegration is or how best to achieve it. This MPI Europe report examines what is and is not known about returnees' economic, psychosocial, and social reintegration. It also discusses the need to build and strengthen monitoring and evaluation (M&E) systems to help address pressing knowledge gaps, track the impact of AVRR investments, and inform program decision-making. To do so, it lays out a set of guiding principles and explores key questions about the design, ownership, funding, and impact of M&E efforts.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Governance, Border Control, European Union, Immigrants, Deportation, Immigration Policy, and Illegal Immigration
Political Geography:: Europe

28. The Winding Road to Marrakech: Lessons from the European Negotiations of the Global Compact for Migration

Author:: Lena Kainz and Camille Le Coz
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: In the summer of 2018, negotiations of the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration suddenly became front-page news, drawing far more attention than nonbinding UN agreements before it. The compact’s proponents argued it would help address transnational issues related to migration, while its opponents alleged it posed a threat to state sovereignty and would lead to an increase in migration to Western countries. Although the European Union was initially one of the driving forces behind the pact, as public demonstrations multiplied, these divisions culminated in the fall of the Belgian government and nine EU Member States voting against the compact or abstaining. This report from MPI's Transatlantic Council on Migration explores how the compact negotiations triggered a multilayered institutional and political crisis in the European Union. It charts how the pact became a proxy for broader debates about how external migration policy is decided within the European Union, especially when doing so touches on multiple policy areas, and about democratic accountability in handling nonbinding international agreements. This analysis, which draws in part on interviews with policymakers from EU institutions and Member States, offers lessons learned for public communications about migration policy and assesses the implications of these events for the European Union’s external migration policy, including its implementation of the compact and role in multilateral migration matters.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, International Organization, Migration, Governance, European Union, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

29. Coming Together or Coming Apart? A New Phase of International Cooperation on Migration

Author:: Demetrios G. Papademetriou, Natalia Banulescu-Bogdan, and Kate Hooper
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The global context for international cooperation on migration has shifted in unanticipated ways since the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration was adopted in December 2018. The COVID-19 pandemic, in particular, upended the migration status quo. Beginning in March 2020, countries introduced border closures or restrictions that essentially paused most forms of mobility, with significant consequences for migrants, their countries of origin, and destination countries—from stranded populations and reduced remittances, to labor shortages in key industries. While many governments’ responses to the pandemic have been unilateral and inward-looking, these challenges have underscored the importance of pursuing greater coordination on migration and mobility at the bilateral, regional, and multilateral levels. Drawing on three meetings of MPI’s Transatlantic Council on Migration, this Council Statement explores the rationale for deeper cooperation on migration, the obstacles impeding it, and ways forward. It reflects on the trajectory of the Global Compact and its implementation to date, and strategies for reinvigorating international cooperation.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Organization, Migration, Governance, Law, COVID-19, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

30. Four Years of Profound Change: Immigration Policy during the Trump Presidency

Author:: Jessica Bolter, Emma Israel, and Sarah Pierce
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Over the course of four years, the Trump administration set an unprecedented pace for executive action on immigration, enacting 472 administrative changes that dismantled and reconstructed many elements of the U.S. immigration system. Humanitarian protections were severely diminished. The U.S.-Mexico border became more closed off. Immigration enforcement appeared more random. And legal immigration became out of reach for many. All of this was accomplished nearly exclusively by the executive branch, with sweeping presidential proclamations and executive orders, departmental policy guidance, and hundreds of small, technical adjustments. This report, which concludes a series of MPI reports providing an overview of policies at different points during the Trump administration, chronicles the immigration actions, large and small, that President Donald Trump and his administration took from January 20, 2017, through January 20, 2021. After an overview of the transformation of the U.S. immigration system during this historic period, the report breaks these hundreds of changes down by issue area: the administration’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic; border and interior enforcement; actions involving the Department of Justice and the immigration court system; the admission of refugees, asylum seekers, and other humanitarian migrants; changes to vetting and visa processes, which involve the State Department, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, and the Department of Labor; and actions involving agencies usually less central to immigration policy discussions. As the authors write, “While it may be possible for subsequent administrations to rescind many of these changes, others cannot simply be unwound.” Many are likely to remain on the books for years to come, with a lasting impact on the U.S. immigration system.
Topic:: Law Enforcement, Border Control, Employment, Refugees, Citizenship, Economy, Resettlement, Donald Trump, Asylum, Integration, Deportation, COVID-19, Immigration Policy, Illegal Immigration, and DREAM Act
Political Geography:: United States of America

31. The Challenge of Coordinating Border Management Assistance between Europe and the Maghreb

Author:: Matt Herbert
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Europe’s border security needs and interests do not stop at its frontiers. Over the last 25 years, the European Union and its Member States have increasingly partnered with and relied on neighboring countries to mitigate cross-border challenges, ranging from irregular migration to drug trafficking and terrorism. Within this transnational architecture, the states of the Maghreb—Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia—have come to play a critical role. Cultivating cooperation with these countries and building their border security capacity have become vital concerns for European policymakers. This Transatlantic Council on Migration report examines the border security situation within the Maghreb, including Maghrebi states’ cross-border priorities and the structural factors impeding the development of better border security. It then takes stock of efforts by the European Union and its Member States to work with partners in the region to address border security challenges and offers lessons learned from experiences to date. “While they have little choice but to engage,” the report’s author writes, “European states have great latitude in deciding how they engage with Maghrebi states.” To be effective, this cooperation must be shaped not only around European policy aims but also the needs and interests of governments and citizens in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Infrastructure, Governance, Border Control, European Union, Trafficking, Smuggling, and Illegal Immigration
Political Geography:: Europe and North Africa

32. Promoting the Inclusion of Europe’s Migrants and Minorities in Arts and Culture

Author:: Lucía Salgado and Liam Patuzzi
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Decades of sustained immigration have transformed many European cities into mosaics of different cultures. Yet this diversity is not always mirrored in the art celebrated in museums, the plays produced in major theaters, and the music heard in concert halls. In addition, well-intended efforts to celebrate ethnic and cultural diversity through art and culture run the risk of overemphasizing differences, exoticizing minority groups rather than contributing to the normalization of diversity within society. But this status quo may be changing. Widespread anti-racism protests have prompted long-overdue conversations about mis- and under-representation of minorities as well as discrimination in the cultural scene. At the same time, pandemic-related restrictions have placed further financial strains on the already fragile cultural sector, challenging organizations to reach new audiences in new ways. This MPI Europe report, which draws on interviews with cultural professionals from 11 European countries, explores approaches to strengthening the participation of migrant and minority communities in arts and culture, with potential benefits for immigrant integration outcomes, social cohesion, and the vibrancy and sustainability of cultural institutions. It examines migrants’ and minorities’ inclusion on three levels: as visitors of cultural venues and consumers of art, as featured artists and performers, and as leaders and staff within cultural institutions. The research was conducted within the framework of the Urban Agenda Partnership on the Inclusion of Migrants and Refugees, co-led by the City of Amsterdam and the European Commission and funded by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Migration and Home Affairs.
Topic:: Arts, Culture, Employment, Citizenship, Economy, Integration, Identity, Inclusion, Civic Engagement, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

33. The Central Role of Cooperation in Australia’s Immigration Enforcement Strategy

Author:: Henry Sherrell
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Over the past three decades, cooperation with other countries has become a central part of Australia’s immigration enforcement strategy. These partnerships are central to Australian efforts to deter irregular maritime migration, tackle people smuggling, provide access to humanitarian protection while minimizing abuse of the asylum process, and return people without grounds to remain. International cooperation has not been without challenges, however. While effective in curbing irregular maritime arrivals, Australian policies—including boat turnbacks and offshore processing of asylum claims in other countries—have raised serious concerns about asylum seekers’ access to effective refugee status determination processes, human-rights violations, and the substantial costs of such policies. This report from MPI's Transatlantic Council on Migration examines the role cooperation plays within Australian immigration enforcement. It looks at bilateral cooperation with countries such as Indonesia, Nauru, Papua New Guinea, Cambodia, and the United States, as well as regional cooperation through the Bali Process. Among the questions it asks: What should Australia prioritize for future cooperation? How can partnerships be made more sustainable? And how should Australia approach the tradeoffs inherent to this cooperation, particularly those surrounding access to humanitarian protection?
Topic:: International Cooperation, Governance, Border Control, Refugees, Smuggling, Asylum, Deportation, Immigration Policy, and Illegal Immigration
Political Geography:: Australia

34. China, Europe, and the Pandemic Recession: Beijing’s Investments and Transatlantic Security

Author:: John R. Deni, Chris Alden, Erik Brattberg, Roger Cliff, Mark Duckenfield, R. Evan Ellis, Nicholas Nelson, and Laura Speranza
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Given the depth and breadth of the pandemic-induced recession in Europe, private companies in need of capital and governments looking to shed state-owned enterprises may be tempted to sell shares, assets, or outright ownership to investors with liquidity to spare. Of greatest concern is the role that China might play in Europe, building Beijing’s soft power, weakening allied geopolitical solidarity, and potentially reprising the role it played in the 2010s, when its investments in Europe expanded dramatically. More specifically, there is concern over China’s investments in infrastructure and sensitive technologies relevant to American and allied military operations and capabilities. Whether Europe is prepared and able to parry Beijing’s economic statecraft is somewhat unclear, given varied attitudes toward China and the patchwork of investment screening mechanisms across the continent. Regardless, the outcomes will have significant implications for US security and for the Defense Department specifically. In support of US European Command (EUCOM) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) assembled an interdisciplinary team to examine these issues and offer actionable policy recommendations for military leaders and decisionmakers on both sides of the Atlantic.
Topic:: Security, Military Affairs, Economy, Investment, Transatlantic Relations, COVID-19, State-Owned Enterprises, and Recession
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

35. Contested Deployment

Author:: Bert B. Tussing, John Eric Powell, and Benjamin C. Leitzel
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: As indicated in the 2018 National Defense Strategy and evolving Multi-Domain Operations doctrine, the assumption the homeland will provide a secure space for mobilization and deployment is no longer valid. This integrated research project goes beyond affirming this assumption and contributes to efforts to mitigate the concerns a contested deployment entails. Following the introductory chapter, Chapter 2, “Army Deployments in a Contested Homeland: A Framework for Protection,” explores how current coordination and cooperation mechanisms between the DoD and state and local government may need realignment, with civil authorities preparing themselves to support military mobilization. Chapter 3, “Strategic Seaports and National Defense in a Contested Environment,” examines the 22 strategic seaports across the United States, identifying issues with throughput, structural integrity, security, readiness, funding, and authorities. Chapter 4, “Single Point of Failure,” identifies how strict adherence to a business efficiency model for munition production and distribution may jeopardize the successful employment of military forces. Chapter 5, “The Interstate Highway System: Reinvestment Needed before a Contested Deployment,” provides the status of the deteriorating road network and explains how associated vulnerabilities could be exploited by an adversary. The two appendices provide points for consideration on cyberattacks and defense and the impacts a full mobilization of reserve forces would have on the homeland.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, Military Affairs, Crisis Management, Public Policy, Army, and Troop Deployment
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

36. Framing the Future of the US Military Profession

Author:: Richard A. Lacquement Jr. and Thomas P. Galvin
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The military profession needs to be redefined by examination of its expertise and jurisdictions of practice, whereas previously the focus was on securing its professional identity. Twenty years ago, the original Future of the Army Profession research project responded to growing concerns among officers that the Army was no longer a profession in light of the post–Cold War drawdown and the onset of global operations including Iraq and Afghanistan. Today, the profession faces recurrent challenges raised by the changing character of war, the renewal of great-power competition, crises surrounding issues of sexual harassment and assault, the effects of a major global pandemic and associated social and political unrest, and the growing societal distrust toward professions in general. Richard Lacquement and Thomas Galvin propose that the questions of professional identity, while still important, are now less salient than those about the professions’ jurisdictions of practice and domains of expert knowledge. Clarifying them will help better prepare US military professionals to exercise discretionary judgment effectively. They also propose a new Future of the US Military Profession research effort that addresses these jurisdictions across service, joint, and defense enterprises to clarify the divisions of professional work and responsibilities. This is a must-read for any steward of the military profession.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Sexual Violence, Army, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

37. On the Horizon Vol. 4: A Collection of Papers from the Next Generation of Nuclear Professionals

Author:: Reja Younis
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The Nuclear Scholars Initiative is a signature program run by the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) to engage emerging nuclear experts in thoughtful and informed debate over how to best address the nuclear community’s most pressing problems. The papers included in this volume comprise research from participants in the 2021 Nuclear Scholars Initiative. These papers explore a range of crucial debates such as the future of arms control and deterrence, emerging technologies, SSBN vulnerability, public opinion, cyber norms, and the role of regional dynamics including China and India in nuclear security.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

38. The Department of Defense Contributions to Pandemic Response

Author:: Tom Cullison and J. Stephen Morrison
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The Department of Defense (DOD) should be systematically incorporated into any evolving U.S. government vision on international health security. A process of strategic planning that encompasses a spectrum of valuable DOD contributions to contain the global Covid-19 pandemic should begin right away. DOD has broad capabilities that have consistently proven their high value in addressing the current Covid-19 pandemic and other historical disease outbreaks, in support of the U.S. civilian-led response. The knowledge and experience gained in crisis response at home and overseas contribute to military readiness and improved coordination of all actors involved in preventing, detecting, and responding to infectious disease events. This report draws from months of deliberations organized by the CSIS Commission on Strengthening America’s Health Security’s DOD Working Group. It lays out four concrete and pragmatic recommendations to strengthen DOD’s contributions overseas in advancing U.S. global health security interests
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

39. The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and Digital Trade in Southeast Asia

Author:: Andreyka Natalegawa and Gregory B. Poling
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: In October 2021, the Biden administration announced the development of an Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) with partner nations to “define our shared objectives around trade facilitation, standards for the digital economy and technology, supply chain resiliency, decarbonization and clean energy, infrastructure, worker standards, and other areas of shared interest.” Details on the framework are still being worked out, but it now seems that those six areas of focus have been distilled into four negotiating “pillars.” Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Sarah Bianchi said in early February that these would include “fair and resilient trade, supply chain resilience, infrastructure and decarbonization, and tax and anticorruption.” The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) will likely lead negotiations on the first, while it appears that the Commerce Department will take the lead on the other three. The details of each pillar will be worked out in the months ahead, but the Biden administration is certain to face challenges and trade-offs across each, given the diversity of economies and political constraints across the region. USTR has said the trade pillar will be “high-ambition” and include binding commitments. But this will be complicated by the fact that the administration plans to roll out the IPEF through executive action rather than as a traditional trade deal requiring congressional approval. This pathway will help the framework sidestep political obstacles that agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership faced before Congress, but it also means that the administration cannot offer increased market access or any other concessions that would require changes to U.S. law. Moreover, moving forward with the IPEF through executive action has led to concerns among partners that the framework could be vulnerable to U.S. domestic politics or that a future administration may well roll back or abandon the framework. Given these self-imposed constraints, the administration will face headwinds trying to convince countries to sign on to high-standard provisions on digital trade, labor, and environmental standards that might run counter to their perceived short-term political or economic interests. One possible solution would have been to make the involvement in the other three pillars, where there are likely to be more tangible benefits for other countries, contingent on an agreement in the trade pillar. But that would run counter to the desire to get as many countries on board as possible. So, the administration has instead indicated that countries will be invited to engage in each pillar a la carte. And while like-mindedness in and of itself does not immediately guarantee their support for the IPEF, the likely result is that only Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and perhaps South Korea—the most developed economies which already share U.S. standards on digital trade, environment, and labor—will engage with USTR on the trade pillar. But a wider array of economies will likely join the talks with the Commerce Department on the other three.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Digital Economy, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Asia, Southeast Asia, and Indo-Pacific

40. Russia Futures: Three Trajectories

Author:: Cyrus Newlin and Andrew Lohsen
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Beginning in 2018, the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at CSIS initiated a research project to explore scenarios related to Russia’s future development and to consider the transatlantic implications of each scenario. The project, which was generously funded by the Norwegian Foreign Ministry, was intended to provide policymakers with an understanding of how Russia’s domestic political situation, economic outlook, military activities, and foreign policy might evolve in response to modern-day challenges including climate change, growing competition in the Arctic, and the fraught relationship between China and the collective West. Based on original research and workshops involving U.S., Norwegian, and European experts, CSIS identified three potential scenarios for Russia’s future development. The first scenario envisioned a path of continuity, in which Russian leaders strove to maintain the status quo. The second scenario foresaw a trend of risk reduction in the Kremlin’s decisionmaking that led to a partial normalization of relations with the West. The third scenario considered a darker future, in which Russian leaders accepted a higher degree of risk to manage mounting problems at home and abroad, leading to sustained confrontation with the West and the further detachment of the Russian government from its people. These scenarios were being prepared for publication when Russian president Vladimir Putin launched a renewed invasion of Ukraine on February 24 and ushered in a period of deep uncertainty for European and global affairs. Almost immediately, Russia’s act of aggression turned the country into a global pariah, triggering international sanctions far beyond the Kremlin’s expectations and consolidating transatlantic unity to an extent that was difficult to imagine in the tense months immediately preceding the invasion. As orthodoxies have been challenged and expectations reconsidered, contingencies that were thought impossible—from embargoes of Russian hydrocarbons to the potential use of nuclear weapons by the Kremlin—are starting to feature into conversations among policymakers and analysts.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Development, Economics, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

41. Reducing Methane Emissions from Global Gas

Author:: Ben Cahill
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Cutting methane emissions from oil and gas will help slow the pace of global warming, and methane is firmly on the international climate agenda. But how will progress on methane rules and regulations spread beyond Europe and North America, especially to regions where state utilities and national oil companies (NOCs) play a prominent role? And how can global gas trade—especially the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector—evolve in ways that lower methane emissions? This report outlines recent global, national, and sub-national efforts to curtail methane emissions from oil and gas. It analyzes how demand for cleaner, or “differentiated,” gas might develop, delving into the drivers for buyers and others in the gas ecosystem. It concludes with policy recommendations and suggested engagement strategies with global gas players.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Gas
Political Geography:: Global Focus

42. Securing Medical Supply Chains with Trusted Trade Partners

Author:: Meredith Broadbent
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: There is bipartisan consensus on Capitol Hill and in the Biden administration regarding excessive dependence on Chinese manufacturing and production. An extension of this is that diversification of supply chains for certain medical products will make U.S. citizens more secure in fighting future infectious diseases. The highly disrupted international economic environment, reeling from supply and demand dislocations unleashed by the pandemic, U.S.-China trade conflicts, and war in Eastern Europe, is prompting certain countries in the Western Hemisphere to seize the occasion to aggressively market themselves as attractive hosts for foreign direct investment looking to move closer to the U.S. market. It is an opportune time for the United States to shape some of the larger forces of global economic disruption, including the movement of investment and production capital. It is time to forge enhanced trade links and diversified supply chains with friends and allies to promote health security, stronger economic and diplomatic engagement, commitments to exchange of data on production, and best practices in fighting disease. This paper breaks down CSIS’s analyses on the capacity for nearshoring in Canada, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Manufacturing, Medicine, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

43. The Caribbean in the Crossfire Between Covid-19, Narcotics, China, and Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Author:: R. Evan Ellis
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The Caribbean is strategically vital as the southeast maritime approach to the United States. It is a key hub and transit area for commercial logistics serving the eastern coast of the United States as well as the Atlantic side of Central and South America. The region is connected to the United States through ties of commerce, geography, and family. Not only is the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico situated centrally in the Caribbean between the Dominican Republic and the Leeward Antilles islands, but significant diasporas of Cubans, Jamaicans, Dominicans, Haitians, and others are found in U.S. communities, from South Florida to New York and New Jersey and beyond. The United States relies on good governance in the Caribbean and partnership on a range of national security issues, including the entry of illegal narcotics (principally moving north from Colombia and Venezuela) and other contraband goods. Even more importantly, the Caribbean touches—or is proximate to—a substantial number of important U.S. ports and military facilities, such as Jacksonville, Florida; Savannah and Kings Bay, Georgia; Charleston, South Carolina; and Norfolk, Virginia. Not only are these facilities critical to U.S. international maritime commerce, but military facilities in some of those areas play important roles in the deployment and sustainment of forces in a range of potential conflicts, be they in Africa, Europe, or Asia. Indeed, during the wars of the previous century, German submarines sought to operate in or near the Caribbean in order to put U.S. facilities and ship convoys at risk.
Topic:: Security, Narcotics Trafficking, Military Intervention, Drugs, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Latin America, Caribbean, and North America

44. Strategic Competition in the Financial Gray Zone

Author:: Heather A Conley, James Andrew Lewis, Eugenia Lostri, and Donatienne Ruy
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Over the past 10 years, the U.S. government has slowly reoriented its foreign and security policy from the fight against global terrorism toward strategic competition with Russia and China. This reorientation has been accompanied by a new examination of how strategic competition will impact the integrity and future stability of the U.S. economy and financial system. One of the most important elements of strategic competition is sub-threshold warfare (also called asymmetric, hybrid, or gray zone warfare), wherein strategic competitors seek to shape the geostrategic environment in their favor, from information operations to economic warfare—which includes such tools as illicit finance and strategic corruption. Strategic competitors present a clear economic and financial threat to the United States when they operate in the emerging financial gray zone, in which malign actors can take advantage of the U.S. financial system to further their aims and disarm the country internally. The U.S. government, along with its allies, has only begun to acknowledge the sweeping nature of the financial gray zone and to reposition itself to compete within it. Because adversaries exploit the seams between the internal and external policies and authorities, Washington must have greater insights into a complex operating system and better integrate data across the many relevant agencies—in a way, connecting the financial dots. As it develops this comprehensive picture, the U.S. government should develop stronger defensive and offensive policy tools to counter this emerging threat.
Topic:: Economics, Finance, Strategic Competition, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

45. Equity and Diversity in the Nation's Cyber Workforce: Policy Recommendations for Addressing Data Gaps

Author:: Irving Lachow
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: U.S.-based businesses and government agencies face a shortage of between 350,000 and 600,000 cybersecurity professionals, and 56 percent of companies believe that their staffing shortfalls put them at moderate or extreme risk. Focusing on diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) can help organizations address that shortage by increasing the pool of available talent. Beyond the social good that comes with successful implementation of DEI policies, a 2018 McKinsey & Company report notes that organizations can also realize a positive impact on growth and performance. This is due to improved problem solving and idea generation: “Diverse teams have been shown to be more likely to radically innovate and anticipate shifts in consumer needs and consumption patterns—helping their companies to gain a competitive edge.” These benefits carry over to the cybersecurity realm. A diverse workforce can contribute to a better understanding of user behavior and the ever-evolving threat landscape. Additionally, diverse representation can help organizations identify and address implicit biases that may be impacting their ability to hire and retain talent, develop new products and services, and understand market demand across a broader demographic base. MITRE recently conducted a study, funded by the Hewlett Foundation, that examined the current state of data on the diversity of the nation’s cyber workforce. The results of that study point to a data gap that needs to be addressed
Topic:: Labor Issues, Diversity, Labor Market, Cyberspace, and Equity
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

46. Multilateral Trade Arrangements and Climate Provisions

Author:: Emily Benson, Sparsha Janardhan, and William Alan Reinsch
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: This new paper from the CSIS Scholl Chair in International Business assesses sectoral standards bodies, evaluates environmental provisions in trade agreements, and explores opportunities for addressing climate concerns in newer trade arrangements, such as the recent announcement to negotiate a deal on green steel and aluminum between the European Union and the United States. As this paper seeks to demonstrate, binding agreements with clear enforcement mechanisms are best suited for ensuring that parties meet their climate change obligations as outlined in various bilateral or multilateral agreements. Since concluding agreements that are both binding and have clear enforcement capabilities are not always possible or politically desirable, pursuing a mixed approach—one based on best practices from a diverse set of trade architectures—may be the most viable approach that produces the most tangible outcomes. This paper evaluates climate provisions in trade architectures and makes recommendations for including climate provisions, including sectoral standards, in trade arrangements in a way that encourages increased multilateral collaboration in a WTO-compliant manner.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

47. CSIS European Trilateral Track 2 Nuclear Dialogues

Author:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The European Trilateral Track 2 Nuclear Dialogues, organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in partnership with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique (FRS), have convened senior nuclear policy experts from the United Kingdom, France, and the United States (P3) for the past 13 years to discuss nuclear deterrence, arms control, and nonproliferation policy issues. By identifying areas of consensus, the group seeks to improve collaboration and cooperation among the three nations across a range of challenging nuclear policy concerns. The majority of the experts are former U.S., UK, and French senior officials; the others are well-known academics in the field. Since the Dialogues’ inception, currently serving senior officials from all three governments have also routinely participated in the discussions. The United States, the United Kingdom, and France hold common values and principles directed toward a shared purpose of sustaining global peace and security, as well as an understanding of their respective roles as responsible stewards of the nuclear order. While each of the three nations has unique perspectives and policies regarding nuclear issues and the nature of today’s security environment, as the three nuclear weapons states in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance, they play a unique and enduring role in the stewardship of international alliances and partnerships, especially in matters of nuclear deterrence, nonproliferation and arms control. In 2021, the group’s discussion addressed a range of growing challenges in the international security environment and beyond, prompting the group’s Track 2 participants to issue this statement reflecting their consensus after two rounds of meetings (one virtual and one in person). Moreover, recent events in Ukraine, including Russia’s violent cross-border aggression, endangerment of nuclear power sites, and blatant nuclear saber-rattling drive home the inescapable risks of war that occurs under a nuclear shadow and the enduring importance of close collaboration and solidarity of the United States, the United Kingdom, and France as responsible nuclear weapons states and NATO alliance members. All signatories agree to this statement in their personal capacities, which may not represent the views of their respective organizations.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Europe

48. Defense Acquisition Trends 2021

Author:: Gregory Sanders, Won Joon Jang, and Alexander Holderness
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Defense Acquisition Trends 2021 is the latest in an annual series of reports examining trends in what the DoD is buying, how the DoD is buying it, and from whom the DoD is buying using data from the Federal Procurement Data System (FPDS). This report analyzes the current state of affairs in defense acquisition by combining detailed policy and data analysis to provide a comprehensive overview of the current and future outlook for defense acquisition. It provides critical insights into understanding the current trends in the defense-industrial base and the implications of those trends on acquisition policy.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Industrial Policy, Military Strategy, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

49. The Two Technospheres Western-Chinese Technology Decoupling: Implications for Cybersecurity

Author:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Decoupling of digital innovation, systems, and data flows between Western nations and China is a growing global issue with high potential to destabilize the digital world. Through a series of workshops and an analysis of existing efforts, the Multilateral Cyber Action Committee (MCAC) has provided an assessment on the current status of technology decoupling and the growing divergence of the Western and Chinese technospheres. The report provides a set of recommendations for action to mitigate the growing cybersecurity risks posed by technology decoupling.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and North America

50. Beyond Foreign Military Sales: Opportunities to Enhance Japan-U.S. Defense Industrial Cooperation

Author:: Takashi Kodaira
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The security environment in the Indo-Pacific region is becoming increasingly severe due to China’s growing military power. Further cooperation between the Japanese and U.S. defense industries will strengthen deterrence, although Japan’s defense industry is currently in a difficult situation, with domestic procurement stagnating. For Japan to fully take advantage of its role in the U.S.-Japan alliance, it must maintain and strengthen the defense industry through defense industrial cooperation with the United States. This report examines trend lines in Japan’s defense industrial strategy and potential avenues for bilateral cooperation to enhance capabilities critical to managing complex security challenges facing the U.S.-Japan alliance.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Industrial Policy, Military Strategy, Defense Industry, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

51. A Shared Responsibility: Public-Private Cooperation for Cybersecurity

Author:: Eugenia Lostri, James Andrew Lewis, and Georgia Wood
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Cybersecurity is a priority for Congress and for the Biden administration as online crime and espionage reach unparalleled heights. To improve cybersecurity in federal agencies and in critical infrastructure, the administration has built a strong team, elevated the positions of White House officials dealing with the issue, and released a series of policy directives. In Congress, 157 pieces of legislation addressing cybersecurity were introduced during 2021, with proposals ranging from capacity building and workforce development to updating federal policy. Crime and espionage have made cybersecurity a national priority, and action on cybersecurity is more likely than ever in 2022. CSIS convened two private roundtables with senior government officials and senior information security executives from major enterprises in a range of U.S. industry sectors. The goals of the roundtables were to identify common challenges, discuss best practices, and outline avenues for cooperation.
Topic:: Security, Infrastructure, Governance, Cybersecurity, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

52. Convergence and Divergence: Multilateral Trade and Climate Agendas

Author:: William Alan Reinsch and Emily Benson
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: If the international community wants to make meaningful progress ahead of the 2030 deadline—which critics argue is still too late to avert global catastrophe—major global players should work together to reduce emissions at home and abroad. This paper discusses the politics of climate policy in the United States and how it is influenced by relationships with the European Union and China. It analyzes these international relationships through specific policies, namely subsidies, and assesses their reduction or removal in some cases and their reallocations in others. It also evaluates the politics and policy implications of carbon border adjustments, including their compliance with existing WTO rules. These trade policies allude to domestic industrial policies and how they can be adjusted to better combat climate change while complying with existing trade rules. In outlining policy options for the United States’ trade agenda, including how the European Union and China factor into these options, the paper assesses the probability that certain climate policies will ultimately materialize. The paper argues that unilateralism is insufficient and counterproductive in both trade and climate and that only through multilateral, legally compliant policy convergence can countries stave off environmental and economic collapse.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Multilateral Relatons, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

53. Measuring Congressional Impact on Defense Acquisition Funding

Author:: Seamus P. Daniels and Todd Harrison
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Congress exercises its oversight authority on the executive branch’s defense policy via the appropriations process and can choose to match, modify, or eliminate the Department of Defense’s (DoD) requested funding levels for acquisition programs primarily funded by the procurement and research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) accounts. Congress’s decisions in this process can have a significant impact on the executive branch’s defense plans by making adjustments to acquisition projects’ program of record. This in turn can force DoD program management teams to alter schedules and contracting actions, causing second-order effects on private sector partners in the acquisition process. To measure Congress’s impact on defense acquisition funding, this study compares the actual funding level for procurement and RDT&E accounts with the original level proposed in the administration’s budget request and identifies patterns in which accounts are regularly adjusted by Congress. It assesses procurement and RDT&E accounts between fiscal year (FY) 2001 and FY 2020 and conducts data cuts of acquisition funding at the account, category, military department, and budget activity levels. This analysis ultimately aims to inform defense planners, acquisition officials and program managers, and industry partners of trends in congressional appropriations for defense so they can better anticipate Congress’s impact on defense acquisition funding.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Legislation, Defense Industry, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

54. How Will a Revival of the JCPOA Affect Regional Politics and Iranian Militias?

Author:: Munqith Dagher
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The news about the imminent revival of the nuclear deal between the United States and Iran is heightening concerns, especially across the Middle East. The deal would involve the lifting of economic sanctions, resulting in Iran enjoying a significant flow of income. This analysis attempts to address two important questions: First, free of the U.S. sanctions, will Iran indeed decide to increase its regional influence by funding its regional militias? And second, how will Iran’s strategic direction and regional politics change in the near future? This analysis reveals that the geostrategic threats currently facing Iran as a result of its adopted hostile regional policy outweigh the gains from continuing in its current trajectory. In general, despite the long history of conflict, dispute, and mistrust, the region seems to be gearing toward an era of de-escalation. For the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to justify its continued presence, there is a need for its involvement in continuous conflicts, especially since it currently controls more than two-thirds of the Iranian economy. However, this buckling economy itself is now in dire need of renewal and revival to continue Iran’s ability to prop up the regime and all its components.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

55. U.S. Military Forces in FY 2022: Peering into the Abyss

Author:: Mark F. Cancian
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: CSIS senior adviser Mark Cancian annually produces a series of white papers on U.S. military forces, including their composition, new initiatives, long-term trends, and challenges. This report is a compilation of these papers. It takes a deep look at each military service, as well as special operations forces, DOD civilians, and contractors in the FY 2022 budget. This report also discusses the debate about legacy equipment, the interaction of the budget and force size, and the decline in force size that the services face with retiring older systems without adequate replacements.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Defense Industry, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

56. Securing Intellectual Property for Innovation and National Security

Author:: Sujai Shivakumar
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The United States is engaged in a global competition for innovation, with critical implications for the nation’s continued technological leadership, competitiveness, and security. To win, the United States will need to leverage its advantages at home, including its robust intellectual property (IP) rights system and the innovative zeal of its entrepreneurs. It should also look abroad—setting the pace for scientific cooperation with allies and strategic partners, as well as developing shared international technical standards through the contributions of experts from around the globe. Most pressingly, the United States should not adopt policies that weaken protection of U.S.-owned patents—which would both disincentivize innovation in the United States and support Chinese efforts to dominate critical standards and other advanced technologies. Yet a recent proposal of the Antitrust Division of the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) does just that. Launched as a consultation, its Draft Policy Statement on Licensing Negotiations and Remedies for Standards-Essential Patents Subject to F/RAND Commitments is promoted as an effort to encourage good-faith licensing negotiations and to address the scope of remedies available to patent owners who have agreed to license their essential technologies on fair, reasonable, and non-discriminatory (F/RAND) terms. While this draft policy seems like an innocuous administrative change, it has the potential to do significant damage to the United States’ innovation engine and, by extension, to its national security.
Topic:: Security, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Innovation, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

57. Decarbonizing Aluminum: Rolling Out a More Sustainable Sector

Author:: William Alan Reinsch and Emily Benson
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: As the effects of climate change intensify, countries and industries alike are seeking new ways to decarbonize to meet emissions targets, avoid carbon border tariffs, and reduce energy costs. Today, energy use in industry is the number one contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Therefore, decarbonization of heavy industry would have a direct and immediate impact on reducing GHG emissions and slowing climate change. Aluminum is the second most used metal in the world. Its applications are numerous and fundamental, from electrical transmission to defense and construction. Aluminum is also a key input in other goods that help reduce emissions, such as electric vehicles and energy-efficient buildings, meaning that decarbonizing aluminum can help industries that are playing a critical role in global climate efforts. This paper evaluates global progress on sectoral emissions reductions and assesses policies governments can pursue to accelerate decarbonization of the aluminum sector. The aluminum industry consists of three component segments: upstream aluminum, downstream aluminum, and recycled aluminum. The upstream aluminum sector is responsible for the sourcing of raw material components from mined bauxite that is then refined into alumina and smelted into aluminum. Aluminum production is usually accomplished in two phases. In the first stage, bauxite ore is refined to obtain aluminum oxide through the Bayer process. The Hall-Heroult process of smelting the aluminum oxide to release pure aluminum comprises the second stage. Upstream production of aluminum involves the mining of bauxite and refining it into alumina. The downstream segment refers to the production of semi-fabricated aluminum products and their use in a wide range of sectors, from manufacturing and automobiles to construction and consumer products. Aluminum not only offers durability, but also is lightweight and infinitely recyclable, meaning it has clear environmental benefits compared to other similar inputs, such as steel or plastic. While aluminum does offer some environmental benefits, producing it is carbon intensive. Aluminum production processes have changed very little since the 1800s, and many countries continue to rely on coal to produce the electricity required for aluminum production. Globally, the aluminum sector contributes roughly 2 percent of GHG emissions—equivalent to about 1.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2). Yet demand for aluminum is expected to increase by 50 to 80 percent by 2050. In 2019, the aluminum industry consumed 6 percent of all global coal-fired electricity, exceeding the total amount of coal-fired electricity generated in Europe. That same year, coal-fired electricity used in aluminum electrolysis produced 636 million tons of C02 emissions, or 58 percent of the sector’s carbon footprint. On average, 72 percent of GHG emissions from primary production of aluminum are from electricity, meaning greater use of renewable energy in aluminum production could significantly decrease the sector’s carbon output. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global CO2 emissions need to decrease by 45 percent by 2030 in order to keep global warming below the 1.5 degree threshold. By accelerating the deployment of renewables and designing policies that encourage and support the decarbonization of heavy industry, the private and public sectors can play key roles in helping to reduce carbon emissions, while also continuing to grow the global economy.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Renewable Energy, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

58. The Kremlin Playbook 3: Keeping the Faith

Author:: Heather A Conley and Donatienne Ruy
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: For six years, the Kremlin Playbook series has studied Russia’s malign influence efforts in Europe, primarily through the economic lens. This research showed the Kremlin has developed a pattern of malign economic influence in Europe through the cultivation of “an opaque network of patronage across the region that it uses to influence and direct decision-making.” The aim is to weaken democratic systems from within, using existing and creating new societal divides. But what if Russia, for its own malign purposes, were to seek to influence religious or traditional views? The Kremlin Playbook 3: Keeping the Faith aims to protect these beliefs by exposing how Russian malign influence works in this particularly challenging and very personal dimension—a new strategic seam—to ensure citizens do not unwittingly become part of an influence operation. The instrumentalization of values, traditions, and religious beliefs is a relatively recent and particularly pernicious front of the Kremlin’s influence efforts in Europe and elsewhere. This study investigates these dynamics in four case study countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, France, Georgia, and Greece. This report explores how the United States and its European allies can protect the religious beliefs and values of their citizens from malign influence at a time when transatlantic societies are grappling with the speed of societal change. Societal anxiety and fear related to these rapid economic, demographic, and generational shifts—and the subsequent politics and political figures that seek to capitalize on them—have fueled societal divisions around the so-called cultural wars in Western societies. Through two main channels, the Orthodox world and the traditional values ecosystem, the Kremlin has taken advantage of these fears to accentuate societal wedges in Europe and Eurasia.
Topic:: Economics, Hegemony, Strategic Interests, and Influence
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

59. Creating Accountability for Global Cyber Norms

Author:: James A. Lewis
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The year 2021 saw all UN member states agree in the Open-Ended Working Group (OEWG) on a framework for responsible state behavior in cyberspace, based on norms developed in the United Nations Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) in 2015.1 The OEWG formalized global agreement on the 2015 norms. This consensus agreement means that the framework for responsible state behavior is now politically binding for all member states. Global agreement on the obligations for responsible state behavior is a substantial step forward in building international cybersecurity in a rules-based environment. Unfortunately, international experience since 2015 has shown that agreement on norms, even when politically binding, is by itself not enough to ensure their observation or create stability in cyberspace. This has shifted discussion from what norms are needed to how to build accountability and what to do when norms are ignored. While the norms agreed to by all member states will ultimately reinforce international stability, to make progress, it will be necessary to develop a collective diplomatic strategy to improve the observation of norms and increase accountability when they are ignored. A strategy of sustained engagement and the imposition of consequences is necessary for norms to have effect. Our assumption is that accountability for malicious cyber actions can only be strengthened if there are consequences for a state’s decision not to observe norms. If nothing else, a failure to take action in response to transgressions seems to only encourage opponents. An immediate task is to define the conditions for collective action. There has been an initial and informal agreement among like-minded democratic nations that accountability requires the imposition of consequences for a failure to observe norms, but several issues must be addressed. These include agreement on standards for attribution of the source of a malicious action and agreement on a proportional, lawful, and effective response. A collective approach is essential if efforts to create accountability are to succeed, and any response to a cyber incident will require political heft and sustained engagement.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, United Nations, Cybersecurity, Accountability, Transparency, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

60. Data Protection or Data Utility?

Author:: Alexander Kersten and Issac A. Robinson
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Despite the economic upheaval wrought by the Covid-19 pandemic, the United States is now poised to enter a new period of productivity growth with the widespread deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. And just as past eras’ technologies have been driven entirely by the consumption of resources such as steam, coal, oil, and natural gas, this AI-driven period will rely on data. Yet, while this data-driven economic growth model has proven benefits to both individuals and firms, it also raises serious concerns over individuals’ data privacy. A key challenge in this regard is to ensure that data is handled securely and that the privacy of American citizens is protected. Because of the regard paid to data protection and privacy over the past decade, the proliferation of digitization has made privacy policy a part of innovation policy. However, until now, policymakers have viewed data use and data protection as trade-offs, with some nations adopting strict control of data flows. These measures have not been effective in practice; strict curbs have stifled innovation while doing relatively little to protect privacy. An alternative is to deploy promising cryptographic software solutions that can enhance privacy while still allowing access to data. This solution not only unlocks the commercial potential of data for use by firms, law enforcement, nonprofits, and researchers but also protects individuals’ privacy. Realizing the benefits of this win-win solution will require further development and widespread adoption of emerging cryptographic software solutions.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Innovation, Cyberspace, and Encryption
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

61. 475,106 Mistakes: The Cost of Erroneous Parking Tickets

Author:: Kasey Henricks
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Research on Race and Public Policy (IRRPP), University of Illinois at Chicago
Abstract:: In this report we analyze nearly 3.6 million parking tickets issued in Chicago between August 2012 and May 2018 where complying with parking restrictions depended on time, weather, and location restrictions and identified that more than one in eight tickets (13.2%) were issued in error. Erroneous tickets served as a $35.5 million dividend for the City of Chicago during the six years the analysis covered. The 475,106 erroneous tickets we identified in this period generated more than $27.5 million in revenue. Furthermore, only 7% of tickets written under false pretenses are contested, and nine of the 10 community areas with the lowest appeal rates are majority Latinx. More than 20% of inaccurate tickets are subject to late penalties and majority Black community areas represent the 20 community areas with the highest percentage of late penalties tied to flawed tickets. While paying a ticket or taking the time to contest it may be minor inconveniences for some, these erroneous parking tickets amplify the vulnerability of those already vulnerable.
Topic:: Minorities, Discrimination, Police, Transportation, and Cars
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

62. Chicago's Racial Wealth Gap: Legacies of the Past, Challenges in the Present, Uncertain Futures

Author:: Fructoso M. Basaldua Jr., Maximilian Cuddy, Amanda E. Lewis, and Ivan Arenas
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Research on Race and Public Policy (IRRPP), University of Illinois at Chicago
Abstract:: By the time they reach adulthood, Black and Latinx children born to middle income families in Chicago are far less likely than White children from families with the same income to remain in the middle class or to attain a college degree. These patterns in downward mobility among middle class Black and Latinx Chicagoans are much worse than national averages, raising important questions about the future of Black and Latinx communities in Chicago. In this report, we argue that we need an in-depth understanding of wealth inequality to comprehend why middle class families in Chicago seem to be on such different trajectories. The report centers the life experiences of middle class Black, Latinx, and White families to demonstrate that there is much work to be done to support our middle class families, many of whom are contending today not just with the legacies of past inequities, but also with the ongoing failures of public policy to address basic needs.
Topic:: Education, Children, Inequality, Class, Economic Inequality, and Middle Class
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

63. Far-Right Violence and the American Midterm Elections: Early Warning Signs to Monitor Ahead of the Vote

Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: A narrow focus on aggregate trends in political violence can obscure important new patterns and warning signs. While the total number of political violence events in the United States declined in 2021 after far-right groups stormed the Capitol at the start of the year, trends since then reflect an ongoing evolution in anti-democratic mobilization on the right — not the aftermath of its high-water mark. Many of the same far-right groups and networks involved in the Capitol attack have adapted their activity to fit the new environment. These adaptations have manifested in multiple ways: the landscape of actors has become more defined; demonstration engagement has shifted, with a focus on protests that allow for the co-option of new supporters; some actors, like the Proud Boys, have increased their use of violence; armed protests have proliferated, particularly at legislative facilities; contentious counter-demonstration trends have intensified; offline propaganda and vigilantism is on the rise, especially motivated by white supremacy and white nationalism; and preparatory actions have surged, including recruitment drives and training exercises. ACLED data indicate that political violence in the United States, and specifically violence involving far-right militias and militant social movements, typically manifests in peaks and lulls. Against this backdrop, the recent decline in aggregate events should not be taken as a sign that the threat of violence has abated. On the contrary, current trends indicate that it may only represent a relative calm before the next storm. The United States faces many latent risks, and a wide range of factors that can contribute to and elevate these risks — from the ascendance of extremist protest drivers like white supremacy, to the increased rate of armed demonstrations at statehouses, to a rise in militia training and recruitment campaigns — are intensifying. Monitoring these factors, and these groups, will be critical for detecting emerging threats, particularly in the lead-up to potential flashpoint events, such as this year’s midterm elections.
Topic:: Political Violence, Elections, and Far Right
Political Geography:: United States

64. Europe and the Geopolitics of 5G Walking a Technological Tightrope

Author:: Julien Nocetti
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The acute Sino-American tensions which started in 2018 have been coupled with controversies around 5G technology, exemplified by the spotlight placed on Chinese equipment manufacturer Huawei and the security risks associated with its use. For Europe, the 5G challenge at the international level is drawing a very complex landscape. Just like artificial intelligence, 5G materializes a very strong geopolitical sensitivity around the control of critical technologies. 5G is indeed critical because of its expected quasi-ubiquitous use, the gradual shift towards network technologies based entirely on software, and the potential strengthening of already dominant players (including digital platforms via cloud services). The United States-China rivalry is limiting the European Union’s room for action, against a backdrop of security considerations and low levels of investment. The continent’s various players (the European Commission, the main European powers, private players such as Nokia and Ericsson) have not adopted a uniform stance, reflecting an entanglement of technological dependencies on China and the United States. Meanwhile, the issue of semiconductors, symbolizing both the technological decline and the renewal of the EU’s ambitions, is fully integrated into the development of 5G. These chips constitute the "muscle" of the system and trigger new geo-economic challenges in which Europe must still find its place.
Topic:: European Union, Internet, 5G, Telecommunications, and Digital Sovereignty
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

65. Rewinding the Clock? US-Russia Relations in the Biden Era

Author:: Bobo Lo
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The escalating crisis in Ukraine in the winter of 2021-2022 has returned US-Russia relations to center stage. Faced with the prospect of a new Russian military intervention, US President Joe Biden has re-engaged with Vladimir Putin in a manner reminiscent of the diplomacy of the superpower era. But this latest American attempt at accommodation raises more questions than answers. In the intervening three decades the world has changed out of all recognition, the international influence of the US-Russia relationship is much diminished, and their cooperation has sunk to historic lows. Can Washington and Moscow defy gravity and achieve some level of pragmatic engagement? There is good reason for skepticism. Neither side is truly invested in cooperation, but instrumentalizes it to other purposes. The Biden administration hopes to neutralize Russia in order to focus on the all-encompassing challenge of China. The Kremlin looks to undermine American influence as part of its project of promoting Russia as an independent global power. These goals are essentially irreconcilable. Looking ahead, the real question is not whether the United States and Russia can recalibrate their relationship to new “normal”, but whether they can avoid confrontation in an increasingly fluid and disorderly world.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Military Intervention, Vladimir Putin, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

66. French Engagement in the Western Balkans: Boosting Strategic, Political, Economic, and Societal Cooperation

Author:: Florent Marciacq and Romain Le Quiniou
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: After years of lower interest, France has signaled its ambition to re-engage in the Western Balkans. It is not starting from scratch. Historical affinities with the countries of the region abound, in culture, sciences, politics, and economy. But shifting priorities in the past decades have eroded French presence in the region. To regain a foothold in this important part of Europe, France has taken a series of initiatives aimed at boosting its engagement. In 2016, it hosted the Berlin Process summit; in 2017, it launched with Germany an initiative to coordinate the drive against firearms trafficking in the Western Balkans; in 2018, it expanded the intervention mandate of the French Development Agency (AFD) to all Western Balkans countries and adopted a national Strategy for the Western Balkans; in 2020, after a two-year stalemate, it withdrew its reservations against the opening of accession negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia, while sketching the contours of the revised enlargement methodology. Drawing from a series of consultations in the region and structured cooperation with partner think-tanks, this policy paper is conceived as an independent, expert contribution to French efforts at re-engaging with the Western Balkans. It explores perceptions of French re-engagement in the region and reflects the potential of the 2019 Strategy for the Western Balkans in light of the forthcoming French Presidency of the European Council and in the context of the grands débats on the future of Europe.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, Multilateralism, and Engagement
Political Geography:: Europe, France, and Balkans

67. Governing Cities in Africa. A Panorama of Challenges and Perspectives

Author:: Sina Schlimmer
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: By 2050, about 60% of the population of Sub-Saharan Africa will live in urban areas. The governance of the rapid growth of capital and intermediary cities in Africa is one of the priorities of the international development agenda. Between 2020 and 2050, African cities, and especially secondary cities, have to absorb more than 700 million urban dwellers. Given these projections, urban growth in Africa has become a central concern of the international community, including experts from international organizations, researchers, aid agencies, and the private sector. While expert meetings and research initiatives on the future of cities are accumulating, this study aims to take stock of the debate. First, it provides an overview of the major issues that mostly policy-oriented research on cities in Africa has dealt with since independence. Based on this review, our paper builds on the concept of urban governance to approach the transformation and growth of African cities. Hereby we take into consideration the multiple actors (public, private, civil society, etc.), policy sectors (land, housing, infrastructure, etc.), and scales (local, national, international) that shape the political, economic, and social aspects of urban life. The paper also addresses African cities as part of a broader urban-rural continuum. Second, this study proposes concrete avenues to contribute to ongoing research and technical initiatives on urban governance in Africa. More knowledge and data are needed to inform the debate on urban infrastructure financing and the role of intermediate cities in the broader urbanization process in Sub-Saharan Africa. We argue that a more detailed comprehension of land tenure systems is fundamental to understanding the challenges of future urban development in Africa.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Governance, Urban, Rural, and Cities
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, Tanzania, and Sub-Saharan Africa

68. Convince and Coerce: U.S. Interference in Technology Exchanges Between its Allies and China

Author:: Mathilde Velliet
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The tough-on-China policy adopted by the Trump and Biden administrations has – and will increasingly have – important consequences for Washington’s allies, both on their infrastructure choices (5G, submarine cables...) and on their technological exchanges with China. Indeed, the U.S. objective of slowing down China’s technological development has been translated into multiple policies, primarily targeting China but also – directly or indirectly – U.S. partners. On the one hand, Washington deploys a range of coercive and incentive tools to prevent its allies from adopting certain technologies, supplied by Chinese companies and « untrusted » by American authorities (in terms of cyber, data or infrastructure security). Case studies of U.S. efforts against the deployment of Huawei’s 5G or Hengtong Group’s undersea cables reveal a similar strategy, combining direct diplomatic pressure, a threat awareness campaign, and financial incentives. On the other hand, in line with the United States’ historical use of the extraterritoriality of its law and its position as an economic superpower to influence its allies’ decisions, Washington seeks to restrict transfers of critical technologies from allies to China. As the main manufacturers (along with the United States) of these technologies, American allies are increasingly constrained by these legal and diplomatic restrictions, which target one of their main trading partners and tend to extend beyond strictly military or cutting-edge technologies. For example, in order to limit sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, U.S. authorities are combining changes to the American export control regime with diplomatic efforts (bilaterally and multilaterally) to persuade allies to align their own export policies with those of the United States. While the Biden administration appears to be placing greater emphasis on cooperative and incentive approaches, it seems likely that the multidimensional U.S. strategy serving these two objectives will continue, and even be strengthened. Among allies (and especially in Europe), this trend has raised awareness of the security challenges posed by certain Chinese suppliers, but also of the risks associated with the growing coercive practices of the great powers.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Internet, 5G, Semiconductors, and Submarine Cable
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

69. India–East Africa: A Not So Healthy Relationship?

Author:: Isabelle Saint-Mezard and Françoise Nicolas
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Due to historical as well as geographical reasons, India and East Africa have long been close partners. In the recent period however, and even more so since the early 2000s, these ties have tightened as a result of combined efforts by the government of India and its business community. The presence of communities of Indian origin in several East African countries has also acted as a catalyst. East Africa is perceived as a valuable partner both by Indian authorities and by Indian private companies. Although the two types of Indian players may not explicitly coordinate their actions, their interests dovetail nicely in this particular region. The health sector sticks out as one major sector on which Indian actors focus in East Africa. It provides a striking example of the multilayered complementarity between India and East Africa, on the one hand, and between public and private Indian players’ interests on the other. However, India’s activism in the health sector is not necessarily perceived positively by the East African host countries. Despite some technology transfers and efforts by the Indian actors, be they public or private, to promote capacity-building, East African countries find themselves in a situation of dependence as a result of Indian companies exporting and producing drugs, building hospitals, improving hospital management and Information Technology (IT) infrastructure, or digitalizing healthcare. However, the major point of tension pertains to the promotion of medical tourism. Although offshore healthcare comes with many benefits, it is unlikely to be sustainable for the East African economies in the long run. Moreover, the money spent on medical tourism could arguably be used more usefully to develop local medical facilities and competence. The recent developments in the context of the pandemic have made the associated risk very clear. The challenge in the coming years will be for the two parties to find a way to better balance their relationship and set it on firmer ground – in other words, to make it healthier.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Health, Bilateral Relations, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Africa, South Asia, and India

70. The Russian-Iran Partnership in a Multipolar World

Author:: Clément Therme
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The strengthening of the partnership between Russia and Iran depends on overlapping security interests; bilaterally, regionally and on the world stage. Tehran has pursued a regional policy program that is largely in line with Russia’s interests, whether these relate to Syria (from 2011), the Caucasus, Central Asia, or Afghanistan (since 1991). This security dimension was already one of the foundations of the bilateral relationship in the post-Cold War-period. It has now appeared in regional dealings between Tehran and Moscow. In addition, the decline of US international predominance, which has been apparent since the 2000s, has allowed Russia and Iran to develop a shared ideological discourse in opposition to “Western values”. Beyond this shared ideological basis, Tehran has developed a true “Realpolitik” whereby it relies on Russian foreign policy to relieve US pressure on Iran that is aimed at regime change or, at the very least, a change in the behavior of the Islamic Republic. In other words, in seeking to preserve intact the main ideological tenets of its regime, Tehran has added a new dimension to its relationship with Moscow. Since 1991, this relationship has become a matter of survival for a regime that faces both popular opposition at home and external pressure from Washington: pressure that increased during the Trump administration of 2017-2021.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, and Middle East

71. Arctic: Toward the End of the Exception? Strategic, Nuclear and Maritime Issues in the Region

Author:: Jean-Louis Lozier
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Through multiple international initiatives, including the creation of the Arctic Council at the end of the Cold War in 1996, the Arctic appears to be one of the last areas of peaceful cooperation in the world. This “Arctic exception” is also devoid of any serious territorial dispute between the neighboring countries, some of which are nevertheless great powers: Russia, the United States, Canada, but also Sweden, Norway, Denmark (via Greenland), Iceland and Finland. However, this peaceful cooperation is not exempt from strategic rivalries: for some years now, these States in the Arctic have been redefining their strategic postures, notably through the publication of roadmaps and the deployment of new military forces trained to fight in this hostile environment. Russia thus remains the dominant power in the Arctic, in the face of a China with growing ambitions and a Western world – represented in particular by the United States – which is lagging behind after years concentrated on other military conflicts. Furthermore, the war in Ukraine that started in February 2022 also carry the germs of a broader destabilization of the region. Conventional competition is therefore renewed between these great powers, while the nuclear balance is partially maintained. It is indeed worth noticing that the Arctic is an area of direct contact between the Russian Federation and the United States. As such, it had a special significance during the Cold War as the shortest route between both adversaries for a potential ballistic missile and was a privileged position for deploying chains of radars and advanced detection systems. Finally, the shrinkage of the ice pack caused by global warming is also triggering the neighboring or more distant states’ greed, whether through the drilling possibilities for raw materials under the ice floe or the creation of new maritime routes. The latter would notably enable Russia to revitalize its northern flank and offer alternatives to existing transit routes.
Topic:: International Relations, Climate Change, Cold War, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Arctic, United States of America, and North Pole

72. Will Artificial Intelligence Hone North Korea's Cyber “All-Purpose Sword”?

Author:: Scott W. Harold, Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Jenny Jun, and Diana Myers
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: How is the increasing spread of artificial intelligence (AI) likely to shape the cyber capabilities of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK; North Korea) in the coming years? Over the past decade, cyber tools have become an important enabler of the Kim Jong Un regime’s quest to achieve its policy objectives. Today, as a result of sustained investments by Pyongyang, the DPRK has developed an increasingly sophisticated set of cyber capabilities, which it has used to substantial effect against foreign militaries, banks, companies, media outlets, and individuals. While the regime has been able to achieve much through cyberattacks relying on traditional human operators, there are some areas where automating cyberattacks may prove attractive to the North. At the same time, demand for trained cybersecurity professionals usually far outstrips supply, and AI for cyberdefense may be an area where the regime ultimately feels compelled to invest, either to offset human capital shortfalls, or as adversary AI-enabled cyberattacks grow more sophisticated. Is North Korea about to make the leap to AI-enabled cyberattacks or cyber defense? Or will the country’s international isolation impair its ability to pair up AI with its existing cyber capabilities?
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

73. Cybersecurity for innovative small and medium enterprises and academia

Author:: Franklin D. Kramer, Melanie J. Teplinsky, and Robert J Butler
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Innovation is fundamental to United States global leadership, critical both for the economy and for national security. Yet the resilience of the US innovation ecosystem against adversary cyber espionage and attack—most specifically from China—has not received the attention required, particularly given the essential innovation roles played by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and by academia. In response to that challenge, this report sets forth a proposal for expert-provided cybersecurity resilient architectures for SMEs and academia that are engaged in the development and operation of key emerging and advanced technologies. Such cybersecurity resilient architectures would be operated by the private sector and funded through the establishment of transferable cybersecurity investment tax credits. The use of such architectures for the protection of emerging and advanced technologies would play a key role in ensuring that the United States maintains its worldwide innovation leadership.
Topic:: Cybersecurity, Innovation, Academia, and Resilience
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

74. The Afghan refugee crisis: How to resurrect the global refugee resettlement coalition

Author:: Rory Stewart
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Six months after the fall of Kabul, the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated at an alarming rate. The threat of famine and economic collapse looms over the entire country. Consequently, many Afghans are fleeing both these appalling conditions and the oppressive Taliban that now control the country. However, Afghan asylum seekers will be facing difficult circumstances even after they leave their country. The global resettlement order remains severely atrophied after the refugee crisis of the mid-2010s, leaving it unable to face the challenge in a rise in Afghan refugees or for other future refugee crises. As the humanitarian tragedy in Afghanistan intensifies, a new global refugee resettlement coalition has to be formed to address the escalating refugee crisis. The primary objectives of this report, written by Rory Stewart, Senior Fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute and former UK development minister, are to: outline the ways in which states have already attempted to respond to the Afghan refugee crisis; discuss realistic and measured ways to address the refugee crisis without undermining border security; improve transatlantic and global coordination in reinvigorating standards on refugee resettlement across the world. This report outlines how the refugee resettlement coalition can be restructured. Beginning with the United States, United Kingdom, and coalition of likely EU member states (such as France, Germany, Benelux, and the Nordic countries), these countries can resettle approximately 320,000 refugees annually. This would happen if each country committed to taking in 0.05% of their respective populations each year: 33,026 for the United Kingdom, 166,400 for the United States, and 120,000 for the likely coalition of willing EU member states. The report also explains how the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated significantly since the fall of Kabul, why Afghans are leaving their home country in increasing numbers, and why the international community must reinvigorate the global resettlement coalition to address this crisis and future refugee crises.
Topic:: Refugee Crisis, Resettlement, Asylum, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and South Asia

75. US-China vaccine diplomacy: Lessons from Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:: María Eugenia Brizuela de Ávila, Bosco Marti, Riyad Insanally, and Claudia Trevisan
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: COVID-19 has laid bare the competing strategies and practices of the United States and China to amass further clout in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). In many ways, the pandemic is quickly accelerating a regional trend seen over the last decade: China uses its growing economic and diplomatic muscle to provide an alternative to US activities and interests. The implications of diverging COVID-19 responses, notably at the onset of the pandemic’s rise in the region, will reverberate beyond the health sector. What might the differing US and China pandemic approaches portend for future influence in the region? For the United States and China, the pandemic has opened new opportunities to deepen regional ties. Both countries’ assistance eventually centered on vaccine diplomacy, but China was first out of the gates in offering vaccinations beyond its borders. For LAC, its interactions with the United States and China during the pandemic are emblematic of broader trends: China provides an alternative to LAC during crisis moments; and regional leaders use US-Chinese competition to their advantage. Both instances are visible in the region, including in the four geographic areas analyzed in the following pages: Central America, Trinidad and Tobago (T&T), Brazil, and Mexico. In each case, distinct US and Chinese engagement at various stages of the pandemic—along with the host countries’ own actions and reactions—have yielded short-term results and some that are likely to persist. In Central America, China provided strategic diplomatic messaging alongside vaccine shipments, but the United States donated more vaccines. In T&T, Chinese vaccines were accompanied by a new loan, and the country’s prime minister applied a pragmatic approach to acquire vaccines from both the United States and China. For Brazil, laboratory-to-laboratory agreements highlighted a different version of vaccine diplomacy: one that occurs at the subnational level. In Mexico, numerous diplomatic exchanges occurred alongside substantial vaccine purchases from US and Chinese manufacturers. Vaccine-related diplomacy also contributes to an evolving discussion about the different ways China and the United States more broadly engage the region—and vice versa. Starting from a low base, Chinese engagement with LAC has focused on and grown significantly in diplomacy, trade, and investment over the last decade. China is either the first- or second-largest trading partner for many countries in the Americas and a top source of foreign direct investment among its allies. Current US strategy in the region similarly reflects a new sense of deploying diplomatic tools to advance hemispheric prosperity, while doing so as part of a broader vision that reflects partnering to address global challenges—from climate change and the instability that sparks migration to shoring up democracy and addressing corruption. Overall, the region’s proximity, shared peoples, history, and borders with the United States provide greater depth and multidimensionality to the relationship. Consequently, vaccine diplomacy represents a greater marginal opportunity for China to broaden and deepen regional ties.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Vaccine, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Latin America, Caribbean, and United States of America

76. Iraq: Implementing a way forward

Author:: C. Anthony Pfaff, Ben Connable, and Masoud Mostajabi
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: A new report, Iraq: Implementing a Way Forward, authored by Atlantic Council staff and fellows C. Anthony Pfaff, Ben Connable, and Masoud Mostajabi lays out findings and recommendations to assist the Iraqi government and its international partners in improving political, social, economic, and security conditions to enhance national stability, stabilize Iraq’s democratic processes, and promote broad-based, Iraqi-generated economic growth. The report draws on two years of engagement with experts from Iraq, the United States, and Europe through a US-Europe-Iraq Track II Dialogue convened from March 2020 through December 2021. Convened by the Atlantic Council’s Iraq Initiative and the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung with support from DT Institute, the Dialogue consisted of a series of workshops to identify policies to help address Iraq’s political, socioeconomic, and security challenges. Dialogue participants included former and current high-level officials and experts, all of whom are committed to a better future for Iraq.
Topic:: Politics, Reform, Economy, Youth, Legitimacy, Identity, Foreign Assistance, and Resource Management
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

77. Entangling alliances? Europe, the United States, Asia, and the risk of a new 1914

Author:: Bruno Tertrais
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: How has alliance formation and maintenance changed since the Cold War? As Russia invades Ukraine, China threatens Taiwan, Iran harasses Gulf States, and Turkey’s neighbors worry about Ankara’s designs, it is a good time to reassess the validity of alliances for global security. Some believe that traditional military alliances are getting weaker or outmoded, and will increasingly be replaced by looser ad hoc groupings such as the Quad, the defense-alliance trio known as AUKUS, or coalitions for given operations such as those in Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, or Libya. However, standing alliances are proliferating (increasing in numbers), widening (welcoming new members), and deepening (reinforcing solidarity and cooperation). The result is a network of interlocking defense relationships, to which an ever-thicker layer of new security groupings and quasi alliances is being added. The emerging system is complex, and policymakers would do well to think through possible future crises to imagine how the various moving parts would end up interacting. They should avoid drawing on the Cold War as a guiding epoch, as it was a comparatively stable and predictable bipolar order. Alliances will also be consistently tested as well, because, as alliances are created or reinforced, adversaries react and probe their limits. Will this expanding network of alliances create more stability or more instability? Does alliance proliferation reduce or increase the risk of war? And if war erupted somewhere, what would be the risks of escalation? The dawning multipolar world, featuring an increasingly dense network of security arrangements, uncomfortably remind us of the years 1912-1914, shortly before the outbreak of World War I. A definitive answer may be impossible to arrive at, but evidence suggests that the current proliferation of alliances is, on balance, more stabilizing to world order than not. The broad set of alliances, suballiances, and security arrangements act as a “safety belt” for world order, rather than as a “conveyor belt” to catastrophe.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Affairs, Alliance, and Instability
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, and United States of America

78. The Impact of Finland's and Sweden's Accession to NATO on the Security of the Alliance

Author:: Wojciech Lorenz
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO will increase the Alliance’s ability to conduct collective defence missions in the Baltic Sea region and to deter Russia. Therefore, the gains from the enlargement of the Alliance will far exceed the costs, which may include the need to create a new command responsible for missions on the Northern Flank of NATO. However, Türkiye’s opposition may prolong the accession process and increase the risk associated with the intensification of Russia’s provocative actions against the candidates.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Alliance, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Turkey, Finland, North America, and Sweden

79. Sahel States Opt for Negotiations with Jihadists

Author:: Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The inability of local and international forces to defeat the jihadists in the Sahel region has led to grassroots initiatives to reach an understanding with them. In Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, preparations are also underway for similar talks by governments, with the hope of including some extremists in the political mainstream. This may help with stabilising the volatile situation, but it carries the risk of strengthening the influence of the radicals.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, Negotiation, Islamism, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso

80. Difficult Debate on an Intellectual Property Protection Waiver to Fight COVID-19

Author:: Szymon Zaręba
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The negotiations currently taking place at the WTO on the suspension of, among others, patent protection for vaccines and medicines against COVID-19, are at a standstill. This creates a risk of widening the rift between developing countries, which mostly support the idea, and some developed countries, which oppose it. It also makes it more difficult to increase the supply of patented items, particularly of vaccines, to an extent undermining other efforts by countries and international organisations to contain the pandemic. It is in the interest of Poland and the EU to overcome this impasse.
Topic:: Intellectual Property/Copyright, European Union, Vaccine, COVID-19, and WTO
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and Global Focus

81. Humanitarian Catastrophe in Afghanistan: A Crisis by Choice

Author:: Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: One of the world’s most serious humanitarian crises is taking place in Afghanistan and it is largely the result of flawed assumptions of Western policy following the Taliban’s seizure of power. The West’s suspension of development aid has led to the collapse of the economy and to hunger for millions of Afghans. Instead of forcing the Taliban to respect human rights, the actions will have the opposite effect—a humanitarian catastrophe, mass migration, and a failed state. The European Union may soon face these effects directly, so it should take steps to resume development cooperation and avert the worst-case scenario.
Topic:: Human Rights, Taliban, Economy, Development Aid, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and South Asia

82. Prospects for the Launch of the Digital Yuan

Author:: Oskar Szydłowski
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Among the digital currency projects developed by major economies, the Chinese digital yuan (e-CNY) is the most advanced. After pilot projects in selected Chinese regions, the biggest test was to be at the Winter Olympics in Beijing. The spread of the digital yuan will enable the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to expand its digital authoritarianism through increased surveillance of citizens’ finances. It may also increase the Chinese currency’s share of international transactions in the region. The success of the e-CNY should accelerate the ECB’s work on a privacy-preserving digital euro.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Surveillance, Digital Currency, and Yuan
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

83. Before the Invasion: The Russian-Belarusian Allied Resolve Exercises

Author:: Anna Maria Dyner
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: On 10-20 February, Belarus hosted the active phase of the Belarusian-Russian manoeuvres Allied Resolve, after which Russian troops remained in the country. The drills preceded the Russian invasion of Ukraine that started on 24 February. The scenario was an extension of last year’s Zapad exercises and simulated actions against the countries of NATO’s Eastern Flank and Ukraine. The manoeuvres showed Russia’s ability to deploy units over long distances (more than 10,000 km) and the high interoperability of the Russian and Belarusian armed forces. The growing military integration of Belarus and Russia, along with the decision to leave Russian military units in Belarus, is a challenge for NATO in the context of defending its Eastern Flank and its policy towards Ukraine.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Conflict, and Military Exercises
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Belarus

84. Eritrea as an Informal Representative of the Pro-Russia Forces in Africa

Author:: Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Eritrea was the only African country to vote against the UN General Assembly (UNGA) resolution on 2 March condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Although this voice was isolated, Eritrea has become the informal representative of a larger group of states on the continent critical of the West. The possible enlargement of this pro-Russia bloc will depend on the financial and military ability of Russia to remain active in Africa.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, United Nations, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, and Eritrea

85. The Road to Low-Carbon Economies in the EU's Arab Neighbourhood

Author:: Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: At the end of last year, Mediterranean Arab states (i.e., Egypt and Algeria) announced investments or tenders related to the production of renewable energy sources (RES). This is related to the pressure to move away from fossil fuels and the favourable conditions in these countries to produce solar energy. Although in the short term the EU cooperation with its Arab neighbours on RES might slow due to the war in Ukraine, in the longer perspective, given their capacities in this regard, it remains crucial in order for the EU to become independent on Russian energy.
Topic:: European Union, Economy, Fossil Fuels, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Europe, Algeria, and Mediterranean

86. Turkey's Role in the Russian-Ukrainian Negotiations

Author:: Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The Russian-Ukrainian negotiations held on 29 March in Istanbul demonstrates that Turkey is assuming the role of an intermediary. Its policy of balancing between Russia and Ukraine is backed by the majority of the Turkish public, which gives President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan more freedom to manoeuvre. Acting as an intermediary in the conflict may allow Turkey an opportunity to start improving the strained relations with the European Union and the United States.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, European Union, Conflict, and Negotiation
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine

87. Determinants of China's Policy Towards the War in Ukraine

Author:: Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: China’s position on the war in Ukraine depends mainly on the stabilisation of China’s internal situation before the 20th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress planned for autumn this year. By holding NATO responsible for the conflict, the CCP reinforces its rhetoric about the legitimacy of the rivalry with the U.S. China’s signals on supporting peace negotiations and not helping Russia to circumvent sanctions are intended to protect China from possible Western secondary sanctions. The prospect of further Sino-Russian cooperation should induce the EU to reduce its economic interdependence with China.
Topic:: War, Sanctions, European Union, Rivalry, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia

88. The Course of Cooperation between Russia and its Latin American Partners

Author:: Bartlomiej Znojek
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: For the past several years, Russia has been strengthening ties with the authoritarian regimes of Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, and has developed cooperation with other Latin American countries as an investor in the energy sector, a supplier of weapons and Sputnik-V COVID-19 vaccine, and in other areas. Most Latin American governments have condemned the Russian aggression against Ukraine, but they have not imposed sanctions on Russia. It is in the EU’s interest to persuade its Latin American partners of the validity of the restrictions and to work together to mitigate the negative economic effects of the war.
Topic:: International Cooperation, War, Sanctions, Authoritarianism, Partnerships, and Vaccine
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Cuba, Latin America, Nicaragua, and Venezuela

89. The International Dimension of the U.S. Strategy on Countering Corruption

Author:: Mateusz Piotrowski
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The first Strategy on Countering Corruption, adopted on 6 December 2021, assumes that by making better use of existing international regulations and organisations, as well as by establishing new mechanisms, the U.S. will tighten global anti-corruption cooperation. The American goal is to limit the freedom to conduct financial operations by authoritarian states, mainly China and Russia, and at the same time to strengthen democratic countries and promote democracy. For Poland, this is an opportunity to tighten bilateral and multilateral cooperation with the United States.
Topic:: Corruption, International Cooperation, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Russia, China, North America, and United States of America

90. A New Rapprochement in Romanian-Moldovan Relations

Author:: Jakub Pieńkowski
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Since Maia Sandu became president of Moldova in December 2020, Romanian-Moldovan relations have steadily improved. In November 2021 she met for a fourth time with Romanian President Klaus Iohannis, signing a “roadmap” of cooperation. Both countries recognise that a linguistic, historical, and cultural community binds them, however the challenge is to move from declarations to the implementation of projects, especially in infrastructure. Romania’s effective involvement in such projects, given its special ties with Moldova, may contribute to the success of its pro-European transformation, which is also supported by Poland.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Rapprochement
Political Geography:: Europe, Moldova, and Romania

91. Austrian Migration Policy and the Events in Afghanistan and Belarus

Author:: Łukasz Ogrodnik
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Contrary to the government’s rhetoric about restrictive migration policy, Austria remains open to the settlement of people from outside the EU. The takeover of power by the Taliban in Afghanistan in the summer of 2021 and the intensifying crisis on the border between EU countries and Belarus stimulated the Austrian government in international forums in the field of migration. The prospects for cooperation with the V4 countries in this regard were heightened after interior minister Karl Nehammer was elevated to Chancellor.
Topic:: Government, International Cooperation, Migration, European Union, and Borders
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Europe, Austria, and Belarus

92. Foreign Policy in the Presidential Campaign in South Korea

Author:: Oskar Pietrewicz
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The presidential election in South Korea will be held on 9 March. The main candidates are representatives of the largest political parties: Lee Jae-myung of the ruling liberal Democratic Party and Yoon Suk-yeol of the opposition conservative People Power Party. A Lee victory would largely mean the continuation of the current government’s foreign policy—striving for dialogue with North Korea, maintaining a strong alliance with the U.S., and stable relations with China. If Yoon wins, it would increase the likelihood of stronger support of South Korea for the U.S. in its rivalry with China and increased tensions in relations with North Korea. Both candidates condemn Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, but draw different conclusions from the war.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Presidential Elections, and Campaigning
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

93. The Impact of the Russian Aggression Against Ukraine on the EU's Economy

Author:: Melchior Szczepanik
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: A spike in energy prices provoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will inhibit the economic rebound in the EU. Member States will have to face high inflation for longer than previously expected. Forced to increase spending, they also could postpone plans to reduce their debts. The conflict with Russia is mobilising the Community to speed up the development of renewable energy and reduce dependencies on third countries, especially authoritarian ones, in strategic sectors.
Topic:: Energy Policy, War, European Union, Economy, and Inflation
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

94. Belarus's Reaction to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Author:: Anna Maria Dyner
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: From the very beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Belarusian authorities have sided with Russia, supporting it politically and militarily, including making its territory available to the Russian troops. In this way, Belarus is also an aggressor and, as a consequence, the EU and the U.S. have imposed further sanctions on it. Regardless of the attempts to engage in Ukrainian-Russian negotiations, Belarus will be negatively affected by the consequences of its government’s policy and the country, although formally sovereign, has ceased to be perceived as an independent entity in international relations.
Topic:: International Relations, Sovereignty, War, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus

95. Deficiency and Elusion: Relations between Israel and Ukraine

Author:: Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2014 broadened the political dimension of Israeli-Ukrainian relations. However, Israel’s cautious attitude towards Russia remains a burden for mutual relations with Ukraine. Since the renewed Russian aggression in February, Ukraine has diplomatically engaged Israel, but the limited nature of the latter’s support has led to criticism from Ukraine. The scale of the current assistance and pledged aid for the reconstruction of Ukraine, as well as Israel’s policy towards further tightening of sanctions against Russia, will be key to future relations.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Israel

96. Lebanon after the Elections

Author:: Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Although the parliamentary elections on 15 May did not bring a breakthrough in the Lebanese political scene, the weakening of the dominant parties may facilitate reforms necessary to obtain foreign financial aid. The positive results for candidates related to the 2019 anti-government protests will mean a greater emphasis on the fight against corruption among the political elite. To avoid further instability in Lebanon, the EU could step up its support for that state’s institutions, including the Lebanese army, popular amongst the public.
Topic:: Corruption, Politics, Foreign Aid, Elections, Protests, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

97. The UK's First Comprehensive Space Strategy

Author:: Aleksandra Kozioł
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The development of a comprehensive space strategy that encompasses civil and military aspects is in line with the British global strategy adopted last year. Its main goal is to strengthen the domestic space sector in the face of increasing competition on world markets and to make the United Kingdom one of the leaders in this field. The implementation of the strategy will be supported by increased funding, but without setting investment priorities and establishing closer cooperation with allies, including European countries, it will be difficult to achieve the objectives.
Topic:: Markets, Space, Strategic Competition, and Military
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

98. The EU's Prospects for Decoupling from Russian Gas

Author:: Maciej Zaniewicz
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The Russian aggression against Ukraine and cut-off of gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria have strengthened the arguments of supporters of EU independence from Russian gas. However, the prospect of a total embargo is still distant because of opposition from some countries, including Austria, Germany, and Hungary. As a result, the EU will focus on a gradual reduction in purchases of Russian gas, which will have a negative impact on the effectiveness of the sanctions against Russia. It is in Poland’s interest to strive for increasing the pace of diversification of gas supplies to the EU and reducing use.
Topic:: Sanctions, European Union, Gas, and Energy Dependence
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Poland, and Bulgaria

99. New Perspectives for Nuclear Energy in the EU

Author:: Maciej Zaniewicz and Zuzanna Nowak
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: EU countries opposing nuclear energy, mainly Austria and Germany, are trying to limit its development in the Union by using the dispute over the details of the “green taxonomy”. The Russian aggression against Ukraine, however, has strengthened the arguments of supporters of this technology. They present nuclear energy as a way to make Europe independent of Russian gas and oil imports while reducing CO2 emissions. The final shape of the delegated act supplementing the taxonomy and the date of its entry into force will significantly affect the future of new nuclear projects in the EU, including in Poland.
Topic:: Energy Policy, European Union, Carbon Emissions, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Germany, and Austria

100. Russia's Wartime Censorship and Propaganda

Author:: Agnieszka Legucka
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In connection with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Russian authorities have introduced wartime censorship, forbidding the publication of content that does not conform to the official message of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation. This massive and unprecedented propaganda is leading to an increase in support for Vladimir Putin, and Russians protesting against the war are being brutally repressed and persecuted. The consequence is the strengthening of the totalitarian character of the Russian state and the emigration of Russians who do not support the war. The most significant element of the Russian war propaganda is that of “denazification”, a claim aimed also at Poland.
Topic:: War, Authoritarianism, Media, Propaganda, and Censorship
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS