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2. Mexico’s Forgotten Mayors: The Role of Local Government in Fighting Crime
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Organised crime in Mexico has gone local, as cartels break up into sub-groups battling over smaller patches of turf. At the same time, the federal government has wrested policing away from town halls. A reset is needed to re-empower municipal officials to protect the public.
- Topic:
- Organized Crime, Municipalities, Local Government, and Mayors
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, North America, and Mexico
3. Tunisia’s Challenge: Avoiding Default and Preserving Peace
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 12-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Along with democratic backsliding, Tunisia is facing an economic crunch, magnified by foreign debt it is struggling to repay. Outside actors should keep pressing the government on human rights, while looking for ways – chiefly, a revised IMF loan – to stave off the worst-case scenarios.
- Topic:
- Debt, Human Rights, Economy, IMF, and Democratic Backsliding
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Tunisia
4. Monitoring Report | Public consultation in Albania: The illusion of inclusion
- Author:
- Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
- Abstract:
- The Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM) has released a new report: Public Consultation in Albania: The Illusion of Inclusion. This report presents the results of an in-depth monitoring of 50 laws, public policies, and strategic documents consulted by the central government during the years 2022-2023. The assessment covers 10 key government institutions, evaluating their public consultation processes in terms of: Transparency and accessibility of consultation documents; Effectiveness of the public consultation process; Public accountability during this process; Citizen participation in consultations; Ensuring inclusivity and non-discrimination. In addition to the qualitative analysis of public consultation previously conducted by IDM, this assessment for the first time provides statistical data related to this important governance process. The evaluation system applied in this report provides the opportunity to compare institutions’ performance in the consultation of different acts, in relation to the aforementioned principles. Ultimately, the findings highlight a ‘’long distance’’ between transparency and participation in government consultations. The goal of this study is to contribute to evidence-based advocacy for legal reforms and the improvement of institutional practices, so that public consultations fulfill their core function – citizens’ participation and impact in decision-making.
- Topic:
- Transparency, Inclusion, Monitoring, and Civic Space
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Balkans, and Albania
5. Lift the Sanctions: The Principal Danger in Syria Today is Instability
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The most critical international security goal regarding Syria today is the country’s stabilization – and that requires immediate and substantial aid and sanction relief. The question on which recognition of the new government should most hinge is whether it can achieve sovereign authority in the country and do so without the type of human rights abuses or cross-border militancy that pose a threat to regional peace. Given the urgency of stabilizing the country, the new government provisionally meets this criteria. Should it change course and pose a threat to regional peace, the international community can adjust policy accordingly. Two outstanding challenges to sovereignty and legitimacy are the presence of foreign troops – Israeli, Turkish, and US – and the status of Kurdish areas. Especially acute is the triangular relationship among Damascus, Ankara, and Syria’s Kurdish community, which is among the issues addressed in this viewpoint. As for foreign troops: 15,000-20,000 currently occupy the country. Affirming Syrian sovereignty entails expeditiously withdrawing all those forces not explicitly invited by the new government. A related concern is the remnants of the Islamic State (ISIL) in Syria, including the 40,000+ cadre, family members, and displaced persons interned in camps run by the Kurdish authorities. Going forward, the task of managing and combating IS remnants on Syrian territory should fall to Damascus, acting together with Kurdish and foreign partners as it sees fit. The threat that IS affiliates and aspirants pose to the United States and the broader international community have been and are most effectively addressed through measure of homeland security and law enforcement. Securing the US homeland does not require the ongoing deployment of US troops in Syria, which would inadvertently undermine the legitimacy of the new government.
- Topic:
- International Security, Sanctions, Syrian War, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
6. Shipment of a Controlled Vacuum Furnace to North Korea via Multiple States: An HS Code Case Study
- Author:
- David Albright
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
- Abstract:
- In tracking trade data and trade flows, Harmonized System (HS) codes are routinely used to aid searches for dual-use commodities and to help guide the identification of dual-use items that require a license or greater scrutiny. A recurring concern is shipper falsification of HS codes to evade detection or payment of duties. An illustration of such falsifications is a case we learned about via government sources from around 2022 that involved North Korea and a dual-use vacuum furnace suitable for uranium melting that wound its way from Spain to North Korea, via Mexico, South Africa, and China. Such a furnace is typically controlled under the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) Part 2 list and is banned for export to North Korea under United Security Council resolutions. This type of furnace is a mainstay of a nuclear weapons program, particularly one that uses weapon-grade uranium as the nuclear explosive material, as North Korea is known to do. With North Korea expanding its uranium enrichment program and producing greater quantities of weapon-grade uranium, this new furnace would be especially important.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Trade, and Dual Use Items
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North Korea
7. New Information on Shenyang Machine Tool Company’s Illicit Sales to North Korea and Russia
- Author:
- David Albright and Spencer Faragasso
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
- Abstract:
- Several years ago, the Institute reported about the relatively large, multinational Chinese company Shenyang Machine Tools Company supplying sophisticated computer numerically controlled (CNC) machine tools, equipped with Western controlled software, to North Korea in violation of UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions and a supplier country’s trade control laws that banned re-export of this software. New information details the disingenuous way in which the Chinese government investigated this case, indicating nonetheless inadvertently that North Korea received these machine tools, while also demonstrating China’s utter disregard for enforcing UNSC sanctions or its own or others’ export control laws. This case serves as another of the many cases highlighting China as a long-time irresponsible trading partner that responsible companies should avoid when sensitive dual-use goods are involved, lest they be complicit in outfitting North Korea’s, Iran’s, or Russia’s military programs. Today, responsible suppliers are inadvertently facilitating Russia’s prosecution of an illegal war against Ukraine. Given Shenyang Machine Tools Company’s recent exports of goods to Russia with Harmonized Shipments (HS) codes found on the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) Common High Priority List (CHPL), this company should be considered for sanctions.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, Trade, Illegal Trade, and Shenyang Machine Tool Company
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and North Korea
8. Navigating the Challenges of Environmentalism in an Increasingly Authoritarian Iraq
- Author:
- Taif Alkhudary
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- There has been a marked increase in environmental activism in Iraq in recent years. This shift has taken place in the context of what has often been presented as a new stability, due to the absence of active armed conflict in the country since 2017. However, as “stabilization” efforts give way to “development”, Iraq is also coming to terms with the slow violence of protracted wars,1 an astronomical and rapid rise in oil production, and the impacts of climate change – most visible in the widespread incidences of pollution and public health crises, as well as in the drying up of ancient rivers and lakes and desertification, which is destroying livelihoods and causing mass migration across the country.2 The rise in interest in the environment has also come in the aftermath of the 2019 Tishreen uprising, to which the government and associated militias have responded with a widespread crackdown on freedom of expression and assembly, making any form of activism increasingly dangerous. This study examines how self-identified environmentalists active in Iraq interact with this complex context and the challenges they face. To navigate the increased authoritarianism of the Iraqi state, this research finds that environmentalists tend to adopt small, carefully framed initiatives that are usually presented as supporting the government in solving some of the environmental issues it faces, as opposed to being overtly adversarial. This approach also means that Iraq’s environmental movements lack autonomy, and that certain issues – particularly those that might harm the business interests or standing of the political elite – remain off-limits. As a result, environmental initiatives in Iraq tend to make shallow interventions that do little to address the root causes of environmental degradation or to mitigate the effects of climate change. These dynamics are compounded by the funding structures of donor organizations, who prefer to award grants to small-scale, time-bound projects the outcomes of which can be easily measured. Environmental actors active in Iraq have also begun to form coalitions with the government, the private sector, and other members of civil society, such as political activists. However, this remains in its infancy and is often limited to a small number of individuals acting alone. Coalition building remains a substantial challenge and is often actively blocked by the government, used by corporations for greenwashing, and sees the efforts of environmental activists and organizations coopted by politicians for their own political and financial ends. The findings of the current study corroborate and extend the work of Wiktor-Mach et al. on Kurdistan, especially their characterization of environmental activism in the region as “a specific type of activism that does not question mainstream policies and practices but intends to push for change within existing systems and that has a cooperative character”.3 However, it is also important to note (as will be discussed in greater detail in this paper) that in Federal Iraq, the uptake of such non-confrontational tactics is the result of the increased crackdown on civil society post-Tishreen, which has raised the stakes and dangers of more adversarial work. In addition, while in Kurdistan episodes of mass contention are relatively rare and often focus on issues such as salaries and service provision, in Federal Iraq there has been at least one episode of mass mobilization in response to environmental issues in recent years in the form of the 2018 water protests in Basra.
- Topic:
- Environment, Politics, Authoritarianism, and Activism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
9. Online Narratives and Manipulations: Tunisian and Regional Panorama
- Author:
- Arab Reform Initiative
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- In the wake of the presidential elections of October 2024, the first since the coup d'état in July 2021, Tunisia has seen a resurgence of suspiciously sponsored political content, both pro- and anti-regime, on online social media networks. These included advertisements denouncing the refusal of the president of the electoral body, Farouk Bouasker, to reinstate certain candidates. We also saw “locked” profiles with Egyptian-sounding names reacting with likes or "laugh" emojis to publications on the Facebook page of the Presidency of the Republic of Tunisia. With the proliferation of anti-Saied pages garnering thousands of likes in the space of a few days, pro-regime influencers have multiplied their videos to denounce the spread of these pages and content, calling their audiences to witness the truth of the plot hatched by dark forces, which is the mainstay of the new regime's narrative. It is hard to overlook the importance of Facebook in Tunisia. It remains the most widely used network1 and continues to be a major platform for political life.2 While it has long been the site of disinformation campaigns3 in Tunisia, in recent years the issue has taken on a whole new dimension: the sector has gone from being a local, cottage industry to a veritable industry run by specialized companies operating on an international scale. This industrialization of disinformation goes hand in hand with a phenomenon of opinion manipulation, taking the form of troll profiles dictating the political agenda, or fake profiles creating a false sense of popularity for certain ideas. Both disinformation and manipulation raise questions about the future of democracy, in Tunisia and globally, in a context where for many, these networks continue to represent a faithful reflection of reality. This paper seeks to provide an overview of the dynamics of disinformation from the Tunisian digital space, exploring the different narratives conveyed, forms of manipulation, and the role of social media platforms in their amplification. The paper also shows that certain disinformation narratives circulate between different countries in the region. The aim is to broaden reflection on these forms of manipulation while proposing a regional research and action agenda that can help reduce the impact of these activities, known in the Arab world by the general name of "electronic flies".4
- Topic:
- Elections, Media, Misinformation, and Narrative
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Tunisia
10. The Future of Official Development Assistance: Incremental Improvements or Radical Reform?
- Author:
- Masood Ahmed, Rachael Calleja, and Pierre Jacquet
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development (CGD)
- Abstract:
- Over the last decade, donor country governments have faced new and additional demands for financing international challenges, including providing global public goods (GPGs) and addressing historically high numbers of refugees and humanitarian crises. They have partly done so by re-allocating their official development assistance (ODA) away from its original aim: to support poverty reduction and growth in developing countries. This has led to questions about the integrity and credibility of ODA. These questions are only likely to grow more pertinent in the coming decade because the pressures on ODA—and on public finances more broadly—are here to stay. ODA budgets are being cut in a number of traditional donor countries and what remains is increasingly being deployed to meet emerging needs beyond traditional development and to reflect a more national security perspective on development cooperation. The time is right, therefore, to ask whether the concept and accounting for ODA need to be modified to ensure that the needy and vulnerable it was designed to serve continue to be protected in the face of fiscal constraints and changing geopolitical circumstances. This report, a compendium on the future of ODA, aims to provide fresh thinking and inspire the action needed for ODA to remain relevant and effective. It brings together reflections and proposals from leading experts and practitioners, including the under-secretary-general and executive director of UNOPS to a former DAC chair, to inform policymakers. In this executive summary, we will introduce the key arguments from the compendium contributors. The contributions are organised into four key areas of discussion that reflect the main themes raised in this compendium: the rationale for ODA reform, the political and institutional realities shaping reform, using ODA for climate and leveraging private finance, and forward-looking proposals for reimagining ODA’s role and purpose.
- Topic:
- Development, Finance, Humanitarian Crisis, Donors, and Foreign Assistance
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
11. Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping Europe’s Security Future
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What happens with the war in Ukraine matters beyond its borders, as events there will shape the larger standoff between Russia and the West. The U.S. and European powers can manage the risks of a changing security order with a mix of diplomacy and deterrence.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
12. Finding a Way Out of Festering Conflict in India’s Manipur
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Manipur, a state in north-eastern India, has been beset with intercommunal strife since May 2023. The central government has now taken a bold step to quell the violence. It should keep acting urgently to avert a protracted crisis.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Violence, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, India, and Manipur
13. Locked in Transition: Politics and Violence in Haiti
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Criminal gangs have tightened their grip on much of Port-au-Prince, with the multinational security mission making little headway and transitional authorities mired in internal disputes. The UN Security Council should quickly decide how to respond to Haiti’s request for further assistance in restoring public safety.
- Topic:
- Security, UN Security Council, Organized Crime, Gangs, and Public Safety
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean and Haiti
14. Christian Nationalism Across All 50 States: Insights from PRRI’s 2024 American Values Atlas
- Author:
- PRRI Staff
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
- Abstract:
- In 2024, PRRI released a groundbreaking national survey that provided for the first time the ability to estimate support for Christian nationalism in all 50 states. Building on that work throughout 2024, PRRI interviewed more than 22,000 adults as part of the PRRI American Values Atlas to continue monitoring the spread of support for Christian nationalism and the factors driving such views.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Survey, Partisanship, and Christian Nationalism
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
15. LGBTQ Rights Across All 50 States: Key Insights from PRRI’s 2024 American Values Atlas
- Author:
- PRRI Staff
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
- Abstract:
- In 2024, PRRI interviewed over 22,000 adults as part of the PRRI American Values Atlas to provide a detailed analysis of the demographic, political, and religious characteristics of LGBTQ Americans. The report also examines public attitudes on LGBTQ rights across all 50 states and the District of Columbia, focusing on support for nondiscrimination protections, opposition to religiously based service refusals, and support for same-sex marriage. Additionally, new survey questions explore views on transgender-related policies, including restrictions on gender-affirming care for minors and ID laws requiring birth-assigned sex.
- Topic:
- Public Opinion, Domestic Politics, LGBT+, and Survey
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
16. Practical Guidance for Integrating Climate into WPS National Action Plans
- Author:
- Christina Vetter and Jessica Smith
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
- Abstract:
- In this practical guidance note, the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security explores the capacity for National Action Plans on Women, Peace and Security (WPS NAPs) to be effective tools for national-level implementation of the WPS Agenda that is responsive to climate-related security risks. WPS NAPs have become the primary tool for national-level efforts to implement the WPS Agenda. To remain relevant and effective, NAPs must be responsive to the ever-changing security landscape and emerging threats to peace and security, like climate change. While the share of NAPs that mention climate change has slowly increased, many include just one cursory reference to climate change in the background section that does not comprehensively address the impacts of climate-related security risks across all four pillars of WPS or include specific actions or commitments related to climate in the NAP’s implementation framework. This report presents actionable policy recommendations for WPS NAPs to more meaningfully address climate change and related security risks throughout their design, drafting, and implementation. The report, authored by Christina Vetter and Dr. Jessica Smith, was made possible with support from the Embassy of Denmark in Washington, D.C.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Women, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
17. How Does Disinformation Target and Affect Interethnic Relations in Kosovo?
- Author:
- Ramadan Ilazi, Jeta Loshaj, Tamara Pavlović, and Agnesa Bytyçi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- Disinformation and misinformation are pervasive issues in Kosovo, where they exploit existing societal divisions and low trust in institutional narratives. Participants in focus groups and interviews largely defined misinformation as unintentional inaccuracies or partial truths spread due to misunderstanding or lack of verification, while disinformation was seen as deliberately misleading information designed to create division. Though malinformation was not discussed, the distinction between misinformation and disinformation highlights the deliberate nature of the latter in destabilizing interethnic relations. According to a recent NDI Kosovo survey 67% of Kosovo Serbs believe things are moving in the wrong direction, while 41% of Kosovo Albanians believe the opposite. Kosovo Serbs prioritize unemployment (66%) and interethnic tensions (49%) as their primary issues, while Albanians focus more on unemployment (77%) and corruption (56%). There is a significant disparity in perceptions of interethnic relations, while 65% of Kosovo Serbs expect relations to worsen, 53% of Kosovo Albanians are optimistic about improvement. Media consumption is heavily segmented by ethnicity with 79% of the Kosovo Serbs relying on Serbian TV stations daily, with 66% expressing trust in these outlets. Kosovo Albanian respondents primarily use Kosovo TV stations (86%) and social media (50%) as information sources. Trust in information sources remains low across ethnic groups, with reliance on personal networks (friends and family) common for fact-checking.2 Kosovo Serbian community widely believe in disinformation narratives, such as claims of ethnic cleansing plans and mistreatment by Kosovo Police during incidents like the Banjska terrorist attack. Among Kosovo Albanians, skepticism about these narratives is higher, reflecting ethnic polarization. A significant factor enabling both misinformation and disinformation is the skepticism toward institutional narratives—whether from the government, international organizations, or national media. These institutions are widely viewed as biased or agenda-driven, misaligned with the priorities of local communities. Conversely, reliance on familiar sources, such as ethnically divided local news outlets and word-of-mouth communication, exacerbates separation and distrust. These sources, while perceived as relatable and acting in the community’s best interest, are often biased, incomplete, or inaccurate, further reinforcing community echo chambers. Relations between Kosovar Albanians and Kosovar Serbs are frequently manipulated through disinformation to fuel distrust. Actions by the Kosovo Government impacting the Serbian community—such as institutional closures—are framed in Serbian media as ethnic discrimination or even “ethnic cleansing.” Similarly, uncontextualized or sensationalized reports about past events, like the fabricated claim of Albanian children being drowned by Serbs, continue to inflame ethnic hostility. These narratives exploit the unresolved history, reinforcing grievances that hinder reconciliation efforts. Socio-economic hardships, such as high poverty rates and employment gaps, increase susceptibility to disinformation. According to the 2024 Democracy Plus Vulnerability Index, which saw Kosovo’s vulnerability score rise from 41 to 57, economic instability makes individuals more receptive to emotionally charged misinformation.3 Limited access to quality education weakens critical thinking and media literacy, leaving many unable to identify biased information. The National Democratic Institute in their report on Information Integrity in Kosovo Assessment of the Political Economy of Disinformation (July 2022) found that the education system insufficiently prepares citizens for assessing online disinformation, further enhancing vulnerability. The issue of disinformation is not merely a challenge of modern information ecosystems; it is a deliberate strategy employed by internal and external actors to destabilize communities and undermine democratic governance. As digital platforms expand access to information, they also facilitate the rapid spread of false narratives, making it increasingly difficult for communities to discern fact from fiction. This report addresses these challenges with a focus on their implications for interethnic relations between Kosovo Albanians and Serbs. This report is grounded in qualitative research, incorporating insights from two primary sources: Two focus group discussions were conducted with a total of fifteen participants, comprising a mix of Kosovo Albanians and Kosovo Serbs. These discussions provided a grassroots perspective on how disinformation affects interethnic dynamics, exploring lived experiences, perceptions, and community-level challenges. Additionally, nine in-depth interviews were conducted with a diverse range of stakeholders, including local and international experts, representatives from civil society, and government officials. These interviews offered expert insights into the structural, cultural, and political dimensions of disinformation in Kosovo. The combination of these approaches ensures a nuanced understanding of the issue, capturing both macro-level trends and micro-level experiences. The findings are contextualized within existing literature and complemented by statistical data from surveys and prior studies. The report is structured as follows: A detailed analysis of the main themes and insights that emerged from the focus groups and interviews, highlighting the impact of disinformation on interethnic relations, institutional trust, and reconciliation efforts. The next section explores the structural, cultural, and political factors that make Kosovo particularly susceptible to disinformation. A breakdown of the primary methods and stories used in disinformation campaigns, including the roles of media, political actors, and diaspora communities, is also included. An assessment of how disinformation influences community dynamics, perpetuates stereotypes, and undermines peacebuilding initiatives. Kosovo’s ongoing efforts at normalization of relations with Serbia make the issue of disinformation particularly salient. Disinformation not only perpetuates division but also undermines trust in institutions and mediation efforts to normalize relations between Kosovo and Serbia. By addressing the mechanisms and impacts of disinformation, this report seeks to contribute to a deeper understanding of how to better counter disinformation targeting interethnic relations, in order to foster a cohesive and democratic society. The findings and recommendations presented here are intended to serve as a resource for policymakers, civil society organizations, media practitioners, and international actors working to promote peace and reconciliation in Kosovo. At its core, this report emphasizes the importance of fostering resilience against disinformation where interethnic relations are characterized by trust, cooperation, and mutual respect. The research paper “Understanding How Disinformation Targets and Affects Interethnic Relations in Kosovo” is implemented with the support of the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and United States Agency for International Development (USAID), in Kosovo. The content of this research paper belongs to the Kosovar Center for Security Studies and does not necessarily reflect the position and stances of NDI and USAID.
- Topic:
- Ethnicity, Institutions, Disinformation, Misinformation, Trust, and Civil Peace
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Kosovo
18. Enhancing Local Governance: How the private sector can support data capacity in South Africa’s municipalities
- Author:
- Stuart Morrison and Nnaemeka Ohamadike
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Good Governance Africa (GGA)
- Abstract:
- According to the World Bank’s Statistical Capacity Index1 , South Africa ranks among the highest on the African continent. This strong foundation positions the country at the forefront of Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies, particularly in leveraging government and open-access data to address national and subnational challenges. Cities like Cape Town and eThekwini have established Open Data Portals (ODPs) – online open-access data repositories that enhance transparency, improve service delivery tracking, and help identify pressing socioeconomic and infrastructure challenges. These portals not only benefit municipal decision-making but also provide businesses with valuable datasets to identify investment opportunities, market trends, and areas for social innovation.2 Despite these benefits, South Africa faces challenges in expanding and sustaining ODPs, particularly at the local government level. This presents a unique opportunity for the private sector to support local governments in the development and maintenance of ODPs. Using Cape Town and eThekwini as case studies, this report examines why private sector involvement in OPDs is crucial and how such partnerships can strengthen local governance, drive economic innovation, and foster inclusive urban development.
- Topic:
- Governance, Private Sector, Data, and Fourth Industrial Revolution
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
19. National Dialogues x Transitional Justice
- Author:
- Sylvia Servaes and David Bloomfield
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Berghof Foundation
- Abstract:
- In the aftermath of conflict, National Dialogue and Transitional Justice can both contribute to reconciliation and prevent the recurrence of violence. But what is the nexus between the two? What are key shared characteristics, goals, and complementarities? In this paper, Sylvia Servaes and David Bloomfield explore the interlinkages between National Dialogues and Transitional Justice. They also discuss open questions on how both processes can be further integrated in practice to enhance their relevance and effectiveness. Over the last two decades, National Dialogues have been increasingly recognised as a comprehensive tool for preventing violent conflicts and reaching inclusive political settlements. However, questions remain on how to best integrate certain topics in the design of National Dialogues and how to meaningfully include specific societal groups. The series “National Dialogues at crossroads” aims at addressing this gap. It compiles lessons learned and recommendations on four cross-cutting issues: climate change, digitalisation, protest movements, and Transitional Justice.
- Topic:
- Transitional Justice, Reconciliation, Post-Conflict, and National Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
20. Improving the Efficiency of NRC Power Reactor Licensing: Environmental Reviews
- Author:
- Matt Bowen and Rama T. Ponangi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Achieving net-zero emissions in the United States by mid-century requires the rapid buildout of low-carbon energy infrastructure. One challenge to this rapid buildout is the environmental reviews required by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which are part of federal approval processes for new energy projects. This process has increasingly caused significant delays and added costs, and the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) of 2023 was passed by Congress in part to address these issues through amendments to NEPA that impose timelines on environmental reviews. For nuclear power, a low-carbon energy source that has a role in many US net-zero scenarios, environmental reviews are conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) as part of its reactor licensing process. Because this process has at times been lengthy and costly, Congress passed the 2024 ADVANCE Act in part to require the NRC to implement its responsibilities under NEPA more efficiently. During the 2000s and 2010s, most of the environmental impact statements (EISs) these reviews produced would not have complied with NEPA’s new FRA timeline (two years or fewer) and page limit (150, or in extraordinary cases 300). More recent NRC environmental reviews for test reactor deployments have been somewhat quicker and had shorter review documents, perhaps a recognition by the agency that the efficiency of this process needed improvement. This report, part of a series of publications on nuclear licensing reform at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA, focuses on how the NRC can fulfill the new legal mandates on time and page limits for environmental reviews and in general improve the efficiency of these reviews. The report demonstrates that earlier (1970s–80s) environmental reviews for nuclear power reactors licensed under the 10 CFR 50 licensing pathway took less time and generated shorter review documents than those conducted under 10 CFR 52 during the 2000s and 2010s. The latter reviews—all of which were for large light water reactor projects—also utilized substantial NRC resources, thereby incurring significant costs to the applicants. None of these reviews found that the reactor projects were expected to create what the NRC calls “large adverse” environmental impacts, which could destabilize environmental resources. Although some “moderate adverse” impacts were identified, they typically came from unavoidable elements such as new transmission lines and traffic that would result from any large construction project. And beneficial impacts always came in the form of jobs and taxes. At the very least, these findings raise questions about the allocation of time and resources to various aspects of the NRC’s environmental review.
- Topic:
- Environment, Regulation, Carbon Emissions, Nuclear Energy, and Permitting
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
21. Report: Eight Years On, China’s Repression of the Uyghurs Remains Dire
- Author:
- Rian Thum
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
- Abstract:
- The Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide released a report in January 2025, “Eight Years On, China’s Repression of the Uyghurs Remains Dire: How China’s Policies in the Uyghur Region Have and Have Not Changed.” The report is authored by Rian Thum, Senior Lecturer in East Asian History, at the University of Manchester. The report seeks to improve our collective understanding of China’s ongoing repressive policies in the predominantly Uyghur province of Xinjiang in western China. The Simon-Skjodt Center released a report in 2021 detailing multiple crimes against humanity that the Chinese government had committed against the Uyghur population, a Turkic Muslim minority group, and expressing grave concern that the Chinese government may be committing genocide. Since then, detailed reporting on state policies has decreased as Chinese authorities increasingly restricted access to information. Using recent evidence from Chinese state documents, satellite imagery, and survivor testimony, as well as a synthesis of recent academic publications, the report aims to fill a knowledge gap about the current state of mass atrocities targeting the Uyghur community and other Turkic minorities in the Uyghur region. The report finds that, given the available information, all of the policies that led to accusations of mass atrocities in the Uyghur region continue, and some are expanding. These findings should prompt deeper research into the nature of mass atrocities facing the Uyghur population and spark urgent, effective responses. In particular, the report recommends further research into emerging repressive strategies, including the intense network of electronic and human surveillance, curbs on religious practice, and the destruction of cultural heritage.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Minorities, Repression, and Uyghurs
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Xinjiang
22. What is Serbia’s “Project 5000” and why Should we be concerned?
- Author:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the potential consequences and concerns surrounding Serbia’s “Project 5000,” emphasizing why it warrants attention not just from neighboring states in the Western Balkans but also from NATO. Given the geopolitical landscape, any escalation of conflict within this region directly impacts NATO’s strategic interests, considering its significant presence in the Balkans. Moreover, Russia’s overt military backing of Serbia and its advocacy for a militaristic approach towards Kosovo are of particular concern. This stance by Russia can be interpreted as an attempt to embolden Serbia to adopt a military intervention in Kosovo, serving dual purposes for Russia: shifting international focus from the brutal invasion of Ukraine and undermining NATO’s credibility and influence in the region. The unfolding situation underscores a broader strategy by Russia to exploit regional tensions, thereby challenging the Euro-Atlantic integration process. Such maneuvers not only threaten to destabilize the Western Balkans but also aim to fracture European unity and weaken NATO’s strategic coherence, particularly as it pertains to its eastern flank and broader engagement in conflict resolution and peacekeeping efforts.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Geopolitics, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Serbia
23. Reversing the resource curse: Advancing good natural resource governance for inclusive growth and sustainable development in Southern Africa
- Author:
- Sikhululekile Mashingaidze and Stephen Buchanan-Clarke
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Good Governance Africa (GGA)
- Abstract:
- The International Energy Agency’s Medium-Term Gas Outlook in late 2023 notes that “Africa accounted for nearly 40% of new natural gas discoveries globally in the past decade, mainly in Mozambique, Mauritania, Senegal and Tanzania. However, socio-political instability and security issues make Africa a high-risk environment for the gas industry. This results in a gap between the potential and the actual gas production projects under development.” Nonetheless, the Agency forecasts natural gas production growth of 10% (higher than current levels) by 2026. It had only grown by 2.5% from 2011 to 2021, and currently accounts for roughly 6% of global production.1 Asian and Middle Eastern markets’ demand will continue2 while African governments will bet on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). In the longer term, it is critical to phase out fossil fuels due to their exacerbation of global warming and health and environmental risks. Given the imperative for lowercarbon growth trajectories, demand for oil, gas, and coal will likely peak in 2024. Governments and mining investors’ negotiations and contracts should safeguard local populations through ecologically sensitive, responsible mining. Communities’ voices are critical to decision-making from project inception to ensure revenues usher in broad-based growth and increased domestic energy security. In 2022, Good Governance Africa (GGA), with support from the Southern Africa Trust (SAT), explored critical issues surrounding LNG exploration and development in Southern Africa in the context of climate change.3 This intelligence report is a consolidation of key lessons from these LNG projects’ impact on local communities in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado; South Africa’s Eastern Cape, and Zimbabwe’s Cabora Bassa Basin. Together, these three cases illustrate both the promise and perils of LNG mining in Africa.
- Topic:
- Development, Natural Resources, Economic Growth, Sustainability, and Inclusion
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
24. Decentralising the Just Energy Transition: The role of the private sector in supporting municipalities
- Author:
- Mmabatho Mongae and Nnaemeka Ohamadike
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Good Governance Africa (GGA)
- Abstract:
- With nearly 86% of its carbon dioxide (CO2) coming from coal, South Africa is one of the world’s most coaldependent countries.1 Additionally, it produces nearly a quarter of the continent’s total carbon emissions.2 Its economy is highly dependent on agriculture and mineral extraction, which are energy-intensive. Importantly, South Africa is subject to climate variability and change.3 The effects are exacerbated by dysfunctional municipalities’ limited ability to build climate resilience systems and ensure robust disaster risk management. With local government administrative instability, service delivery failures, and financial mismanagement highlighted by Good Governance Africa’s (GGA) Governance Performance Index (GPI), societal stakeholders bear the brunt of dysfunction, particularly amidst escalating climate-induced natural disasters, which further strain government resources. As such, the fight against climate change requires a coordinated response from government, the private sector, and citizens. Presently, citizens do not identify the private sector as a key stakeholder in mitigating climate change. This suggests that the private sector does not have a visible presence in the fight against climate change, thereby presenting the private sector with an opportunity to support the decentralisation of the just energy transition. These efforts can also form part of attempts by the private sector to mainstream Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance (ESG) best practices.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Governance, Economy, Carbon Emissions, and Energy Transition
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
25. What Could Changing Conflict Dynamics Mean for the Risk of Mass Atrocities in Burma
- Author:
- Andrea Gittleman and Denise-Nicole Stone
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
- Abstract:
- In March 2024, the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide hosted a private roundtable discussion on potential conflict scenarios in Burma/Myanmar. The discussion explored plausible trajectories of the conflict over the next six months, and whether these paths may lead to increased risk of mass atrocities for civilians. The convening included researchers, policymakers, and civil society representatives and discussed the following questions: • What are the plausible scenarios in which the conflict could evolve in the coming six months? • What would these changes mean in terms of the mass atrocity risks to civilian populations? • Are there specific regions/areas in Burma where civilians may be at especially high risk? • What particular developments should policymakers monitor? • What potential resiliencies exist to mitigate growing or changing mass atrocity risks, and what strategies should US policymakers use to support them? • What are the policy options available to US policymakers? The discussion took place under the Chatham House rule. This report summarizes key topics from the conversation without attribution.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Atrocities, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Burma, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar
26. Confronting Compassion Fatigue: Understanding the Arc of Public Support for Displaced Populations in Turkey, Colombia, and Europe
- Author:
- Natalia Banulescu-Bogdan, M. Murat Erdoğan, and Lucía Salgado
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
- Abstract:
- Historic levels of global displacement have put intense pressure on systems designed to protect people fleeing conflict, instability, and persecution. Three cases stand out for having triggered a particularly generous response amid enormous upheaval: Turkey's reception of nearly 4 million Syrians since 2011, Colombia's hosting of nearly 3 million Venezuelans who have arrived since 2015, and Europe's welcome of more than 5 million Ukrainians (with nearly 2 million in Poland alone). This report examines the ebb and flow of public support for forced migrants in these three cases. It highlights factors that have contributed to initial widespread solidarity, ways in which support has been sustained over time, and when and why it begins to fade. The report concludes by drawing lessons from these case studies on what policymakers can do to better anticipate and address compassion fatigue. As the study notes, “While compassion is extremely powerful, it is also highly vulnerable to fatigue. In the long term, politicians must anticipate the gradual ebbing of solidarity by putting in place sound policies to meet practical community needs amid large-scale migration.”
- Topic:
- Refugees, Displacement, Integration, and Civic Engagement
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Colombia
27. Expanding Protection Options? Flexible Approaches to Status for Displaced Syrians, Venezuelans, and Ukrainians
- Author:
- Andrew Selee, Susan Fratzke, Samuel Davidoff-Gore, and Luisa Feline Freier
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
- Abstract:
- Faced with displacement crises that have stretched asylum systems to their limits, countries have increasingly begun to use alternatives to traditional protection tools to provide displaced individuals with legal status and access to certain rights and forms of assistance. Often, the status offered is temporary and does not rely on adjudication of individual cases. While such approaches are not completely new, they have gained prominence through national responses to three of the largest displacement crises of the post-World War II era: displacement from Syria, Venezuela, and Ukraine. The principal host governments in these three crises—Turkey, various South American countries, and EU Member States—chose to provide legal status to millions of protection seekers by using existing immigration policies or new temporary statuses, rather than refugee or asylum systems. This report—part of the Beyond Territorial Asylum: Making Protection Work in a Bordered World initiative led by MPI and the Robert Bosch Stiftung—examines each of these three cases, identifying similarities in the approaches taken to offering protection while recognizing the differences between the cases. The study explores the factors underpinning government decisions and their medium- to long-term implications, concluding with thoughts on what can be learned for future international displacement crises.
- Topic:
- Governance, Refugees, Displacement, Asylum, Integration, and Protection
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine, Syria, and Venezuela
28. Leaving No One Behind: Inclusive Fintech for Remittances
- Author:
- Ravenna Shost
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
- Abstract:
- Remittances are an important source of support for migrants’ families, communities, and origin countries. However, the remittance industry has long been dominated by a few players whose services have high transaction costs, blunting the development benefits of these money transfers. By easing access to financial services, mainly via mobile phones, some countries and development actors hope that financial technology (or fintech) will change this status quo. Many believe that such technologies—namely mobile money and cryptocurrencies—hold the potential to boost migrants’ inclusion in financial systems and enhance the development benefits of remittances. Yet, many obstacles remain to widening these digital tools’ reach and usability, and safeguards are needed to protect users against new risks. This report explores the growing use of digital financial services for international remittances, including changes during the pandemic and a look at gendered aspects of these technologies’ impacts. The analysis draws, in part, on insights from expert interviews as well as focus groups conducted in Nigeria and Sri Lanka with users and nonusers of digital remittance services. The report results from a multiyear research partnership between MPI and the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation’s Thematic Section Migration and Forced Displacement to support the development of global solutions for migration-related challenges.
- Topic:
- Development, Migration, Science and Technology, Finance, and Remittances
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
29. Arming Allies and Partners: How Foreign Military Sales Can Change the China Problem
- Author:
- Brennan Devereaux
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- Allies and partners are “a center of gravity” for the DoD National Defense Strategy in the Indo-Pacific.1 But are regional nations building military capacity to help the United States prepare for and deter a potential clash with the People’s Republic of China, or are they solely focused on defending their own territories? Although regional nations’ aims may often overlap, they also diverge in some cases. Partner-capacity development must therefore reflect the distinction between deterrence and territorial defense. The US military has been diligently building relationships and developing partner capacity in the Indo-Pacific region for years, conducting dozens of exercises annually and recently establishing the Joint Pacific Multinational Readiness Center.2 These efforts in the Indo-Pacific region have increased with the US military’s attempt to shift away from the Middle East, and President Joe Biden’s declaration that China is “the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do it.”3 Regardless of efforts in the region, not all relationships with partners are equal; the potential assistance each partner would be willing to provide the US military in a conflict with China will vary for myriad reasons. Although each nation’s support requirements and development goals are distinct, assistance through military sales is a foundational aspect of building capacity, providing allies and partners a venue for acquiring military equipment. The Foreign Military Sales program, often critiqued for its inefficiencies, is being revamped by the US Department of State and Department of Defense.4 Partner nations purchasing US military equipment will remain focused on their own national interests, which for many partners remain security and the defense of sovereign territory. Updates to how the United States approaches military sales can also be tailored to support US military interests more effectively. In other words, US strategic objectives should underpin the prioritization of sales to specific countries, and US efforts should extend beyond financial benefits or the intangibles of building partnerships. To account for the unique and distinct challenges the US military faces in the Indo-Pacific theater, the modernization of Foreign Military Sales should aim to provide the United States with a relative military advantage over China by tailoring the program’s approach to arming allies in a way that complements US military efforts in the region. Modernizing Foreign Military Sales begins by categorizing nations based on their expected roles in a potential clash between the United States and China.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Partnerships, and Arms Sales
- Political Geography:
- China, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
30. Implications for Modern Warfighting Concepts: What the US Army Can Learn from Past Conflicts
- Author:
- Richard D. Butler
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- These four historic vignettes provide context and lessons learned for the US Army as it returns to peer conflict. Although history does not account for the cyber and space domains, the leaders involved in the highlighted conflicts dealt with the reintroduction of maneuver warfare tied to modern fires from land, sea, and air. Peer-level conflict also compelled governments to work intensely in the information space to steel their societies and to influence allies, partners, and adversaries. Using historical reference material and insights from historians and other experts, this essay will help the US Army and the wider community of interest relearn peer rival conflict to support deterrence and prepare for the next large-scale war.
- Topic:
- War, History, Conflict, World War I, Army, Korean War, and Economic Warfare
- Political Geography:
- Philippines, Korea, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
31. A Baseline Assessment of the PLA Army's Border Reinforcement Operations in the Aksai Chin in 2020 and 2021
- Author:
- Dennis J. Blasko
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- This report analyzes the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) border reinforcement operation throughout the Aksai Chin and adjacent areas from summer 2020 to early 2021. It is based largely on analysis of Google Earth imagery and provides a baseline for further analysis of the PLA deployment along the entire Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Aksai Chin. Chinese Army units appear ready to remain in a defensive posture near the LAC the Aksai Chin indefinitely. This effort is the land domain equivalent of Chinese military maritime operations in the South China Sea and air and sea deterrent operations directed toward Taiwan.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Military, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
- Political Geography:
- China, India, Xinjiang, and Aksai Chin
32. War with China: A View from Early 2024
- Author:
- Marco J. Lyons
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- US defense analysts are overdue for a fundamental reassessment of the strategic factors that would shape a future Sino-American war. The United States may lower the overall risk of sparking a war between Washington and Beijing by more formally committing advanced US capabilities in intelligence collection and targeting, long-range fires, and theater air and missile defense to Japan and South Korea and by initiating bilateral planning to introduce such capabilities in Taiwan in the future. The US defense community still lacks a broad and integrated national strategy for successfully managing the rivalry with China. A clear-eyed assessment of a possible United States-China war could lead to a national strategy.
- Topic:
- Security, Intelligence, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, and Strategic Planning
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Taiwan, Asia, United States of America, and South China Sea
33. Emerging Technologies and Terrorism: An American Perspective
- Author:
- Susan Sim, Eric Hartunian, and Paul J. Milas
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- In a world where technology is rapidly advancing and available to the masses, companies and policymakers face a daunting reality—non-state actors are using innovation for sinister purposes. While artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous systems promise enhanced threat detection, terrorist groups are exploiting these tools for recruitment and attacks. The future is concerning as AI becomes more widespread and autonomous systems and augmented reality redefine society. A groundbreaking report is born from a collaboration between NATO COE-DAT and the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. This book unveils a grim forecast that terrorists are poised to exploit advances in artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, augmented reality, biotechnology, and nanotechnology. The line between reality and fiction blurs in the age of rapid technological evolution, urging governments, industries, and academia to unite in crafting ethical frameworks and regulations. As geopolitical tides shift, NATO stresses national responsibility in combating terrorism and advocating for collective strength against the looming specter of technology-driven threats. However, questions linger. Can regulatory frameworks keep pace with technological innovation? Will industry prioritize ethical considerations over profit margins?
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Biosecurity, Artificial Intelligence, Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, and Nanoweaponry
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
34. The Ongoing Genocide in Gaza
- Author:
- John Cherian
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- India International Centre (IIC)
- Abstract:
- There seems to be no end in sight to the genocidal war being waged in the Gaza Strip. As the new year dawned, more than 22,835 Gazans, the majority of them children and women, have been killed by the Israeli Occupation Forces (IOF).1 The true mortality rates are, of course, much higher as at least 7,000 Palestinians remain buried under the rubble.2 In three months of fighting, one out of every 10 persons living in Gaza has been killed. As international humanitarian organisations and local eyewitness accounts have testified, the Gaza civilians were intentionally targeted by the Israeli military. The deaths of civilians and the damage to civilian infrastructure were not due to collateral damage in the fight between Israel and the Palestine militias in Gaza. After the 7 October 2023 Hamas military attack along the highly fortified border with Israel that had resulted in the deaths of 1,200 residents, Israeli leaders and top army generals had publicly vowed to hit the people of Gaza ‘with fire and brimstone’, quoting Old Testament prophets. It was the worst humiliation the Israeli army had suffered in more than 50 years. There were open calls to ‘ethnically cleanse’ Gaza and the rest of the occupied territories so that Israel could realise its long-held dream of an ‘Eretz Israel’ (Land of Israel) extending from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, addressing the Israeli parliament shortly after the bloody onslaught on Gaza began, promised to fulfil ‘the prophecy of Isaiah’. The prophecy, a part of the Bible’s ‘Book of Isaiah’, speaks about the creation of a Greater Israel extending from the Nile River to the Euphrates River. In a later speech, Netanyahu said that Israel was on ‘a holy mission’ in Gaza while invoking another Old Testament story of Amalek. According to the Hebrew Bible, the kingdom of Amalek was the arch-enemy of the Israelites. Amalek was the grandson of Esau, the eldest son of Isaac. Esau is believed to be the father of Edomites, a Semitic tribe often in conflict with the Jews. According to the biblical story, God had ordered his ‘chosen people’, the Israelites, to completely obliterate the Amalekites. No Western leader condemned this blatantly ‘genocidal’ statement by the Israeli Prime Minister. Juan Cole, an American academic and expert on West Asian politics, has charged the Netanyahu government of declaring ‘a holy war of annihilation of civilians in Gaza’.3 The Israeli President, Isaac Herzog, had earlier asserted that there were ‘no innocent civilians’ in Gaza. The Israeli Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant, vowed to ‘eliminate everything’ in Gaza. The Israeli government’s ‘genocidal intent’ has become even more evident after three months of war. The number of people killed in the war on Gaza has exceeded the casualty figures of three previous major Arab–Israeli wars. In 1948, the year Israel was recognised as an independent state, around 15,000 Palestinians were killed as they were forcibly dislocated from their ancestral land. More than 20,000 people were killed when Israel invaded Lebanon to remove the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) under the leadership of Yasser Arafat from the country.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Genocide, Atrocities, Hamas, Benjamin Netanyahu, Armed Conflict, and Healthcare System
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, India, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
35. Digital Governance: Technology Tensions with China and Implications
- Author:
- Alex He and Robert Fay
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- As a superpower that is deeply integrated in global supply chains, China is becoming an economic giant, but its use of technology to capture data using methods that may pose cyber- and national security risks is raising concerns. While some view China’s motivations as an attempt to advance its status from an upper-middle-income economy to a developed economy, others see more nefarious intentions behind its authoritarian, top-down governance model. Further complicating the situation is the growing technology competition between China, the United States and Europe over the control of data, the technologies that use this data and the values upon which they should be used. The Centre for International Governance Innovation’s second annual conference on Digital Governance in China explored these and other issues related to the global implications of China’s governance model in the digital age.
- Topic:
- Development, Science and Technology, Governance, Economy, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
36. How the International Investment Law Regime Undermines Access to Justice for Investment-Affected Stakeholders
- Author:
- Ladan Mehranvar
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- For over a decade now, the international investment law regime, which includes investment treaties and their central pillar, the investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) mechanism, has been facing sustained calls for reform. These have largely centered on the concerns regarding the high costs of ISDS, the restrictions placed by the investment treaty regime on the right—or duty—of states to regulate in the public interest, and the questionable benefits arising from these treaties in the first place. Several states have taken proactive measures: some have revised investment treaty standards to better protect their regulatory powers;1 others have introduced new approaches to investment promotion, protection, and dispute settlement that more closely align with their sustainable development objectives;2 and some states have withdrawn from the investment treaty regime altogether.3 In addition, reforms to the regime are taking place at the multilateral level within the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL),4 the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD),5 the World Trade Organization (WTO),6 and through other regional fora.7 Despite being the subject of extensive and prolonged public debate for several years, these reforms have continued to reinforce the binary structure of the regime. This structure restricts the focus of investment relations solely to investors and host states, disregarding the actual or potential impacts of investment projects, relations, disputes and awards on the rights and interests of other impacted stakeholders. In particular, large-scale, land-based investment projects involve a broad network of people and relations, and often intersect with local communities whose social identity, way of life, and livelihoods are intimately connected to the land and natural resources at stake.8 It is this category of investments, which result in the creation of a new “project” with a large land footprint, that is the topic of this paper. The consequences of these types of investments can be significant, as they often lead to land expropriations, negative human health consequences, water pollution, air contamination, deforestation, or shifts in migration patterns within the area,9 thereby impacting the rights and interests of people in these communities and the environment more broadly. From the perspective of investment-affected communities,10 foreign investments arise out of a partnership between the investor and the state.11 After all, it is the government that facilitates the establishment and development of these very projects. Meanwhile, these impacted people are often not consulted or involved in project establishment or development, and many may not even know that a project has been approved until after it has been approved or once it is operational. According to scholarship in this area,12 these affected individuals and communities often find themselves in a situation where they must assert their rights against the negative impacts of such projects, or resist these projects by mobilizing, protesting, or resorting to legal (and non-legal) measures against the investor and/or the state. This dynamic is frequently reflected in investment disputes, in which foreign investors challenge measures that state agencies have taken in response to, inter alia, local opposition to investments, in an attempt to safeguard their economic interests.13 However, even though the underlying investments, government measures, ISDS disputes, and any resulting awards often implicate local people and communities in profound ways, these stakeholders find it difficult, if not impossible, to assert their rights and have their concerns addressed in investment policy making, in the establishment or continuation of investment projects, and in any ensuing investor-state disputes that may arise under investment treaties (or investment contracts). In fact, the voices of investment-affected people are effectively, and in most cases, actually excluded from the “institutional logic” of the investment treaty regime.14 This is because of the narrow scope of the applicable treaties and the limited consideration given to human rights and domestic legal frameworks in ISDS proceedings. In addition, these communities often encounter legal and practical obstacles when seeking to protect their rights and interests under other instruments and fora, like international human rights law, or domestic and regional judicial systems. This is because victories won by investment-affected communities at these other fora are often pyrrhic since they may ultimately be undermined by the investment treaty regime if or when the investor succeeds in its ISDS claim. It is this local dimension, which has received little attention in public debate and action on reform at the global, regional, and national levels, that is the focus of this paper. We draw on a group of 13 investor-state claims (and two potential claims)15 that relate to the rights and interests of impacted communities and identify ways in which their access to justice is undermined, hampered or denied entirely by the ISDS mechanism.16 Before describing the ways that access to justice is undermined or denied in these ISDS cases, we first define the term “access to justice” below.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Law, Investment, and Stakeholders
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
37. Harms from Concentrated Industries: A Primer
- Author:
- Denise Hearn
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Clashes between dominant firms exercising private power across the economy, and regulatory agencies tasked with preserving democracy have oscillated in ferocity throughout history. Today there is widespread recognition that in many markets, concentrated private economic and political power has yielded a range of anti-democratic, anti-innovation, and inequitable outcomes for consumers, workers, and smaller businesses. A vast literature1 now documents the macroeconomic and social harms from concentrated markets. As a 2019 International Monetary Fund (IMF) report states, “further increases in the market power of already-powerful firms could weaken investment, deter innovation, reduce labor income shares, and make it more difficult for monetary policy to stabilize output.”2 Competition policy, or antitrust, is a subset of a broader anti-monopoly agenda, and an important foundation for the functioning of fair markets. How its laws are crafted, interpreted, and enforced has substantial economic and social effects at local and regional levels, as well as national and international levels. The way that competition policy is written, interpreted, and applied has wider societal impacts beyond competition, including effects on democracy, economic inequality, growth and innovation, racial and gender imbalances, privacy, geopolitical implications and more. Competition policy also has redistributive economic effects between stakeholders, often privileging the largest corporate actors and their shareholders at the expense of other stakeholders.3 As the largest global firms have grown in size and reach, many national jurisdictions have set up competition authorities. In the last four decades, more than 120 legal systems have created competition rules, establishing National Competition Authorities (NCA) across a significant portion of countries.4 However, competition policy includes, but is not limited to, antitrust enforcement. It can also include a broader set of legislative and regulatory reforms which provide market guardrails that protect consumers, workers, independent businesses, and fair market dealing.5 The recently introduced Digital Markets Act in the EU is an example of competition policy using additional regulatory layers to protect the rights of consumers, start ups, and to spur innovation and economic growth. Today, competition policy and antitrust law are experiencing new political potency as various global jurisdictions have strengthened and enhanced their enforcement regimes.6 New market realities like digital market platform gatekeepers, the financialization of firms, the rise of private equity, resurgent labor movements, trade wars and industrial policy, and sustainability challenges, among others, have forced reconsiderations of how to adapt competition policy to meet new 21st century market realities. Competition policy’s narrow focus on consumer welfare (typically defined as low prices)7 over the last 40-50 years saw technological giants ascend to new heights with little to no scrutiny or challenges to mergers. A focus on lowering prices for consumers meant that new assetization strategies – such as monetizing a user’s attention while offering “free” products – went ungoverned by competition regulators. Non-price effects from concentrated markets like: threats to democracy or privacy, and effects on worker’s rights or the environment were mostly ignored. Mergers largely went unchallenged, leading to concentration across many sectors of the economy which is well documented in the US,8 Canada,9 and Europe10 and increasingly so in other jurisdictions. As so-called “superstar firms” have come to dominate national and global economies – in part due to a lack of strong countervailing regulatory structures and antitrust enforcement, and in part due to new network effects or economies of scale and scope in financial, digital, and other markets – many large companies are now akin to para-state institutions, which set the terms and norms of markets, acting as de facto private regulators. Global collective action problems like inequality, climate change, and biodiversity loss, which threaten the ecological and social thresholds upon which open societies are built, have also challenged the status quo of competition policy interpretation and enforcement. This presents a moment of political opportunity for a new vision, which asserts a concerted challenge to the ways in which concentrated corporate power undermines healthy economic, political, and social functioning across a range of industries. An anti-monopoly policy agenda ensures that markets operate on fair and competitive terms, that they reward innovation, create widely shared ownership and prosperity, and allow the best ideas, products, and services to flourish. Markets are public creations, governed by democratically determined rules. Anyone can be an anti-monopolist and participate in the active governance and shaping of markets, and there is now a wide global community of people who identify as such. At the end of this document we list some civil society organizations that are working to foreground anti-monopoly policy approaches and to build communities of practice, for those interested in learning more. Below, some of the harms from market concentration are outlined, as well as industryspecific or thematic considerations in technology, agriculture, and trade.
- Topic:
- Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, Business, and Industry
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
38. Billion-Dollar Exposure: Investor-State Dispute Settlement in Mozambique’s Fossil Fuel Sector
- Author:
- Lea Di Salvatore and Maria Julia Gubeissi
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Mozambique is endowed with extensive untapped natural resources, particularly gas and coal. The country’s gamble on fossil fuel-based economic growth comes with signiicant economic risks and crowds out investments in the country’s enormous renewable energy potential. ◆Mozambique faces a substantial economic risk due to its exposure to investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) claims by foreign investors in its coal, oil, and gas sectors. The investment protections in the country’s international investment agreements and contracts, combined with ISDS, expose Mozambique to multi-billion-dollar financial liabilities. Even conservative estimations show that potential ISDS liabilities from oil and gas projects would cover almost a decade of Mozambique’s government expenditures for SDGs. ◆ Mozambique’s international investment agreements and publicly available oil, gas, and coal contracts allow foreign investors to bypass the national judicial system and bring multi-billion-dollar ISDS claims against Mozambique. Such claims can result in significant costs for the country, and they also have a considerable chilling effect on any new public-interest regulation in areas such as health, environment, community rights or labor protections. ISDS can undermine attempts to adopt meaningul legislation to transition away from fossil fuels and achieve sustainable development goals. This regime can therefore contribute to locking the country into a high-carbon economy. ◆In addition, multiple stabilization clauses in the analyzed contracts lock the operations into specific legal and fiscal regimes for the duration of the contracts. Stabilization clauses protect investments from unexpected regulatory changes or new fiscal rules. If a host state does introduce such changes, stabilization clauses allow investors to demand measures or compensation that would ensure their same profitability absent such changes. These clauses thus exacerbate the limits to – and chilling effect on – states’ public interest regulation. ◆Mozambique and other countries can take actions to remove ISDS from their contracts and treaties, replacing the mechanism with alternative dispute resolution mechanisms. They can also take steps to terminate investment agreements in force. Home countries of Mozambique’s foreign investors have a responsibility to support such action, especially as they, themselves, remove ISDS from their own treaties.
- Topic:
- Natural Resources, Gas, Investment, Fossil Fuels, Coal, and Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mozambique
39. Pakistan’s Evolving Militant Landscape: State Responses and Policy options
- Author:
- Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), Muhammad Amir Rana, and Safdar Sial
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
- Abstract:
- At a time when a major shift is happening in the militant landscape of the country and a political transition is taking place, it is imperative to reevaluate the evolving positions and strategies of not only the militant groups but also the newly formed governments. Against this backdrop, this report seeks to delve into the emerging dynamics of Pakistan's militant landscape and security besides analysing state capacities and responses, along with potential policy shifts post-transition. While much of the research and analyses in Pakistan since Taliban takeover of Kabul has predominantly focused on aspects such as the Taliban regime's governance, Pak-Afghan bilateral affairs, and regional geopolitics, there remains a glaring absence of credible and comprehensive investigations into the broader repercussions of the evolving Afghan scenario on Pakistan's security landscape. Despite periodic headlines on the Pakistani government's negotiations with the proscribed TTP, there has been a dearth of empirical research exploring the overall fallout of Afghanistan's changing dynamics on Pakistan's security. In light of this context, PIPS undertook a firsthand, empirical investigation into the expanding terrorism landscape in the country, scrutinizing the formation of new alliances and networks among terrorist groups, mapping the geographical spread of insecurity and violence, and assessing their ramifications for both domestic and regional security paradigms, among other things. The insights gleaned from this investigation were subsequently utilized to formulate context-specific policy recommendations on how to manage or prevent the negative fallout from evolving Afghanistan situation on Pakistan and the region.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Non State Actors, Minorities, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia
40. Afghan Peace and Reconciliation: Pakistan's Interests and Policy Options 12
- Author:
- Osama Ahmad, Imran Mukhtar, and Hazrat Bilal
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
- Abstract:
- The Pak Institute for Peace Studies held its 12th quarterly consultation on “Afghan peace and reconciliation: Pakistan’s interests and policy options” in Islamabad on March 15, 2024. The consultation focused on two main themes: “Pakistan’s Afghan policy puzzle: challenges and opportunities for the new government” and “The counterterrorism and counter-extremism challenges for the new federal and provincial governments.” Participants included lawmakers from national and provincial assemblies, diplomats, retired miltary officials, academics, journalists, policy analysts, and experts on Afghan affairs. The distinguished speakers talked about the policy challenges confronting the new government. They were particularly skeptical about the new government’s ability to formulate the country’s Afghan policy, and were worried about surging terrorism in the country, India's increasing influence in Afghanistan, province-center worsening relations, and Pakistan’s deteriorating relations with the neighboring countries. In the first session, the discussion revolved around how the newly formed coalition government will address critical issues such as countering terrorism and improving relations with Afghanistan and other neighboring countries. The need for a solution to Balochistan problem was highlighted. Apart from that, various factors leading to worsening relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan were discussed, for instance the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) factor, deportation of Afghan refugees, border insecurity, and cross-border terrorism from Afghanistan. The participants also linked the success of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to peace in the region. Pakistan's failure to extend goodwill into Afghanistan was termed a significant problem. It was argued that Pakistan's forceful expulsion of Afghan refugees significantly eroded Pakistan's good image in Afghanistan. The participants urged the government to take political ownership of foreign and internal policies and strengthen the role of parliament in order to set things right both at home and abroad. However, they lamented the inability of the political government to assert itself, thereby allowing space to non-democratic forces to decide unilaterally on critical matters. In the second session, the consultation focused on the counterterrorism policies in the center and provinces. The prevailing antagonistic relations between Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf’s (PTI) government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and the coalition government in Islamabad were thought to prevent the formation of an effective counterterrorism policy. Speakers also highlighted how India is exploiting the situation by funneling funds to the TPP through Afghanistan, which has led to a significant surge in the terrorist activities in Pakistan. Improving trade relations with Afghanistan also came under the discussion, and it was advised to reduce hurdles in bilateral trade which will benefit not only Afghanistan but Pakistan as well. It was also highlighted that although there is peace in a political sense in Afghanistan, poverty and economic decay have increased during the Taliban government. In the last minutes of the discussion, it was underscored that the Afghan Taliban deliberately designate Pakistan as their enemy and capitalize on this rhetoric to divert the attention of Afghans away from the system they are implementing, which might lead to further destitution.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Bilateral Relations, Taliban, Refugees, Reconciliation, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia
41. Afghan Peace and Reconciliation: Pakistan's Interests and Policy Options 11
- Author:
- Osama Ahmad, Imran Mukhtar, and Hina Saleem
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
- Abstract:
- This report is outcome of the 11th PIPS-led structured consultation out of a series of twelve such events that have been designed to discuss and critically evaluate evolving aspects of Afghan conflict and political reconciliation and suggest policy options and strategies to the governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan. To that end, PIPS has established a network of credible resource persons including former diplomats, academicians, government officials, and representatives of political and religious parties, security and law enforcement agencies, civil society, and media, as well as those living at the border including Afghan refugees. The underlying goal is to support Afghan peace and reconciliation and tackle its trickle-down effect for Pakistan including in terms of militancy and insecurity, among other things.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Refugees, Conflict, and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia
42. UK-EU Relations Tracker Q3
- Author:
- Cleo Davies and Jannike Wachowiak
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Released quarterly, the UK in a Changing Europe UK-EU Relations Tracker assesses relations between the UK and EU as well as relationships between the UK and EU member states. This edition of the tracker covers developments from July to September 2023. On 1 October, the UK government introduced the green-lane/red-lane system to ease the flow of goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland as part of the Windsor Framework. In the context of thawing relations post Windsor Framework, the UK and EU have reiterated their commitment to making the most of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). The political agreement on the UK’s association to the Horizon and Copernicus programmes was an important milestone. In other areas, the tracker notes that discussions are ongoing. On the future of the relationship, the tracker highlights a growing mismatch between debates on the two sides. Within the UK, the Labour Party have set out plans for building on the TCA in pursuit of a closer trading relationship. The EU, on the other hand, shows little appetite for revisiting the terms of UK-EU trade. Bilaterally, the UK has now signed general statements or declarations with most EU member states. The focus is therefore shifting from formalising relations to maintaining and implementing them. This requires continued engagement, which the tracker indicates can be difficult to sustain at the highest political level.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Cooperation, European Union, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
43. Russia’s Ideological Construction in the Context of the War in Ukraine
- Author:
- Marlène Laruelle
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the Russian government has been proactive in the ideological realm to ensure the sustainability of the war for Russian society. Counter to the claims of many Western observers, this paper argues that the Russian regime does have an ideology, which translates into a relatively coherent political project for Russia and a desire to build a new world order. This ideology is based on a set of beliefs that has evolved over the years while remaining true to its core principles. However, it draws on an eclectic doctrinal stock and multiple (sometimes contradictory) repertoires and sees content as situational and therefore malleable. With the war, proponents of the officialization of a state ideology—all from the hawkish part of the establishment—have been gaining weight: the Presidential Administration now mainly reproduces language and tropes that have long been present in the security and military realm and have become the official doxa. Yet while new indoctrination methods and textbooks are introduced to the school system, the Kremlin has not so far recreated a Soviet-style ideological monolith: even in the context of war, it appears hesitant to engage in excessive “true teaching”, preferring a functional, technocratic understanding of ideology. After briefly defining what ideology means for the Putin regime, this paper explores how the main set of beliefs, strategic narratives, and doctrines have stabilized and gained increased internal coherence, as well as how new textbooks and military-patriotic indoctrination mechanisms are developed, before delving into the social reception of this official ideology.
- Topic:
- Ideology, Vladimir Putin, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
44. Emerging Powers and the Future of American Statecraft
- Author:
- Christopher S. Chivvis and Beatrix Geaghan-Breiner
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The structure of international politics is changing in ways that are not fully appreciated in Washington. The United States has paid a great deal of attention to the rise of China in the last decade but much less to emerging powers whose rise will also shape the operating environment for American statecraft. No single emerging power will have an impact tantamount to China’s, but they will have a significant impact collectively due to their geopolitical weight and diplomatic aspirations. America has limited ability to influence the trajectory of these emerging powers, identified in this report as Argentina, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, and Türkiye. They have taken stances that contrast or directly clash with U.S. positions on China and on Russia over the past few years. Nearly all have voiced concerns about Washington’s approach to the war in Ukraine, even as they criticized Moscow’s invasion. Almost none would line up with the United States in a confrontation with China. Instead, they are likely to pursue highly self-interested foreign policies. Washington should expect that they will increasingly challenge some of its policies, sustain relationships with its adversaries, and press their own agendas on the global stage. The emerging powers’ statecrafts are shaped in large part by their drive for economic security. But their geographies, different preferences for world order, domestic politics, and defense relationships also play a role. Concerns about the strength of democracy in other countries, which has played an animating role in U.S. foreign policy for decades, are a lower priority for them, no matter how democratic they are. It will be a mistake for the United States to frame its relations with these emerging powers primarily as part of a competition for influence with China and Russia, however tempting it may be to do so. These powers are not swing states that will tilt decisively toward either side in a global great power competition. Most will resist any efforts to bring them into a U.S.-led camp as in the Cold War. Trying to make them do so would also risk strategic overreach by embroiling the United States too deeply in the emerging powers’ domestic politics or by expending its resources in pursuit of building ties that never materialize. A better approach for the United States would be to focus on negotiating interest-based deals with emerging powers while cordoning off areas of disagreement. These might include tailored market access and investment agreements, agreements on technology manufacturing, energy transition initiatives, efforts to combat deforestation, efforts to build public health infrastructure, and infrastructure investments. It would be wasteful of the United States to offer these countries security guarantees, but in some cases providing security assistance can serve its interests. Washington should accept that most of these countries will maintain close diplomatic, economic, and sometimes security relationships with China and probably Russia. Over the longer term, it will serve U.S. interests to strengthen the sovereignty of emerging powers when possible and cost-effective to do so. This will provide a bulwark against the undue expansion of China’s power and influence and help ensure that, even if they do not side with the United States, they are not drawn closely into the orbit of its major geopolitical competitors. Strengthening emerging powers’ sovereignty will also help boost their development as constructive powers with a stake in sustaining a peaceful world order conducive to global economic growth.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, Strategic Competition, and Emerging Powers
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, China, Middle East, Asia, Latin America, and United States of America
45. Charting the Radical Right’s Influence on EU Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Rosa Balfour and Stefan Lehne
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The political landscape in the European Union (EU) is changing rapidly. For decades, the traditional mainstream parties of the center right and center left have been losing ground, while antiestablishment parties have been gaining support. According to research by the University of Amsterdam, 32 percent of voters opted for antiestablishment parties in 2021, up from 12 percent in the early 1990s.1 Radical-right parties make up about half of this share, and their support has risen faster than that of any other group. Many of the fourteen parties examined in this study have achieved vote shares of 20 percent or more. The radical right is now in government, or supports the government, in Finland, Hungary, Italy, Slovakia, and Sweden. In the Netherlands, it is likely that Geert Wilders’s Party for Freedom (PVV) will be part of a governing coalition. In other countries, these parties have become the leading opposition groups. In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) has been carefully preparing to win the 2027 presidential election. Setbacks for the radical right in Poland and Spain in the second half of 2023 have shown that the relentless rise of these parties is not a foregone conclusion. However, current polling for several national elections and the June 2024 European Parliament elections indicates a strong likelihood of their continuing electoral success.2 Chega (Enough), a recently established party that shot to 18 percent of the vote in Portugal’s March 2024 election, ended the country’s exceptionalism as one of the few European nations without a right-wing populist party.3 The June 2024 Belgian federal election may see the Flemish nationalist party Vlaams Belang (Flemish Interest), which so far has been strong in Flanders but kept out of national politics, break through at the federal level. Polling for Austria’s September 2024 parliamentary election suggests a surge in support for the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ).4 In contrast with populism, which has a thin ideology focused mainly on fomenting the anger of the so-called pure people against corrupt elites and which has risen on both the left and the right of the political spectrum, the radical-right parties of the 2020s have a more distinct ideological profile.5 All have national specificities, such as rural origins in Northern Europe or ethnonationalism in Central Europe. Several parties are rooted in postwar fascism, such as the FPÖ, RN, Brothers of Italy (FdI), the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), and the Sweden Democrats (SD). For some groups, strong connections with society and well-developed party structures compensated for their marginal impact in national politics. Before its landslide victory in Italy’s 2022 parliamentary election, support for FdI hovered at around 5 percent, as it did for the party’s predecessor throughout the period since World War II.6 Other parties, such as Hungary’s Fidesz, gained ground as classic populist or even mainstream parties and benefited from an aura of respectability even as they shifted toward ethnonationalist or nativist positions. Since the 1990s, liberal-democratic parties have started to adopt some of the ideas of the radical right while keeping the parties themselves out of government. In the 2000s, the radical right became normalized, in some countries becoming part of the political mainstream. During this process, as political scientists Cas Mudde and Jan-Werner Müller have argued, liberal-democratic parties have shifted toward the radical right in the hope—mostly in vain—of keeping their traditional electorates. Yet, in practice, this approach has led voters to prefer the real radical right to its imitators. In other words, the tactic of chasing the radical right has not paid off electorally. Voters have moved toward the radical right as a consequence, not as a cause, of liberal-democratic parties’ attempts to contain it.7 Today, the far right is dominated by the radical right, which, unlike the extreme right, accepts the essence of democracy but rejects its liberal elements: minority rights, the rule of law, and the separation of powers.8 The radical-right parties selected for this study all share deep antimigration sentiments, often determined by race or religion; a nationalism that makes these parties Euroskeptic and opposed to what they see as a Brussels-based dictatorship; and skepticism of climate change policies. Many of these parties also espouse deeply conservative family values that go against women’s and LGBTQ rights. Foreign policy is usually not the strong suit of these parties, apart from their keen interest in the external dimension of migration policy. These parties pay close attention to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine but are sharply divided on this issue, with positions ranging from deep mistrust of Russia to close alignment with the Kremlin’s arguments. A future Donald Trump administration could lead to new divisions in the EU, as some member states are likely to align with the United States under any circumstances. This would mean that many of the EU’s current foreign policy positions, such as support for Ukraine, would come to an end. As radical-right parties rise to prominence at the national and the EU level, they are developing views on a range of foreign policy issues, building increasingly influential international networks and think tanks, and learning from each other’s successful tactics in solidifying their control of the state and propagating their values.9 For some radical-right parties that have been established in government, such as Fidesz and, until October 2023, Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party, the upgrading of foreign policy on their political agendas can be inferred by the fact that all diplomatic postings in the EU are political appointments. Hungary’s foreign policy machinery is under the direct control of the prime minister.10 Diplomatic colleagues of the Hungarian representatives in Brussels know that the country’s negotiating positions are micromanaged in Budapest.11 Other countries, such as Italy and Finland, have chosen to rely on the credibility of career diplomats to navigate the Brussels machinery, preferring compromise over confrontation and isolation. For a long time, European politicians and EU institutions have assumed the radical right could be contained. Now, the challenge of the radical right needs to be addressed more seriously. Just as this phenomenon has eroded democracy and the rule of law in some EU member states, so foreign policy may become affected at a time when collective action is most needed to address international issues. As the radical right challenges the EU’s attempts to navigate a dangerous world, European politics can no longer afford complacency.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Migration, European Union, Democracy, and Far Right
- Political Geography:
- Europe, France, and Germany
46. The risk of artificial intelligence: China edition
- Author:
- Filip Jirouš
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL)
- Abstract:
- We should be worried about China’s AI capacities, not only because it enhances the powers of the Party-state, but also because it is exporting its population control technology and policy abroad.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Governance, Authoritarianism, Surveillance, Artificial Intelligence, Social Control, and Threat Assessment
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
47. The Women’s Rights Movement in Papua New Guinea: where we came from, where we are and where we wish to go’
- Author:
- Orovu Sepoe
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
- Abstract:
- This new collaborative research highlights the strengths, challenges and powerful role of the women’s rights movement in PNG. The WEAVERS Research Report is the outcome of research conducted by Dr Orovu Sepoe (Lead Researcher) and a steering committee of diverse PNG women’s rights advocates and rights actors. It delves deep into the PNG women’s rights movement to understand “where we came from, where we are, and where we wish to go”. The research team engaged with 38 women’s rights organisations from five research sites across PNG. The research reveals a strong cultural precedent of women coming together in PNG – Meri Bung in Tok Pisin – providing a strong foundation for today’s women’s rights movement. Research findings also highlight that despite fragmentation, weak institutional linkages and funding constraints, women’s rights organisations share a “collective consciousness” – meaning they have a shared understanding of their values and purpose that informs their perseverance in taking action to advance and protect women’s rights. The research was wholly locally-led and guided by the steering committee, which worked collaboratively across all research phases and had representation from disability inclusion and human rights organisations, faith-based groups, and groups representing LGBTQI+ people. The report provides future directions and recommendations for the women’s rights movement, governments, supporters and partners.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Human Rights, Social Movement, Women, and Feminism
- Political Geography:
- Papua New Guinea and Indo-Pacific
48. Palestine: Public Opinion Report 2023, Part 1
- Author:
- Khalil Shikaki
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- Domestically, AB8 Shows most Palestinians did not support Hamas on the eve of October the 7th war; but the war led to a significant rise in Hamas’ popularity and a significant decline in the standing of the PA leadership among the Palestinians. The war also led to a significant rise in support for armed struggle in the West Bank. Nonetheless, after the eruption of the war, Hamas did not gain a majority support in either Gaza or the West Bank and support for the two-state solution did not decline These are the results of the latest wave of the Arab Barometer (AB) poll in Palestine, the 8th to be conducted since the start of these polls in the Arab World. The poll was conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip essentially during the period immediately before the start of the October the 7th war in the Gaza Strip and its envelop on the Israeli side. The period leading up to the poll witnessed a number of important developments, including the 30th anniversary of the signing of the Oslo Accords. The period saw a rise in the number of Israeli incursions into Palestinian cities and refugee camps, particularly in the northern parts of the West Bank. During this period, Palestinian factional leaders met in City of El Alamein in Egypt in the presence of President Abbas but failed to agree on a joint statement. During this period, settler terrorist acts in Palestinian areas of the West Bank increased, as did armed attacks by Palestinians against settlers and Israelis. Finally, there have been press reports that there are US-Saudi negotiations to reach an agreement to normalize Saudi-Israeli relations and that Palestinian-Saudi and Palestinian-American meetings have been held to set Palestinian conditions for this normalization agreement. This report is the first in a series of reports that cover the findings of the current wave of AB. It addresses two important issues covered by AB8: the domestic balance of power in the Palestinian territories and the state of Palestinian-Israeli relations. While the focus is placed on the findings of AB8 regarding these two topics, the report sets to compare these findings with those obtained by PSR in two of its regular polls, one conducted before AB8 and one after it. The poll conducted after AB8 came several weeks after the launch of Hamas’ October the 7th offensive against Israeli towns and military bases bordering the Gaza Strip and the Israeli launch of the current ground invasion of the Gaza Strip. In the meanwhile, in the West Bank, the Israeli army blocked or restricted Palestinian access to main roads while settler attacks increased against vulnerable towns and villages in various parts of the B and C areas.
- Topic:
- Public Opinion, Hamas, October 7, and Balance of Power
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
49. Palestine: Public Opinion Report 2023, Part 2
- Author:
- Khalil Shikaki
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- Palestinians see the Israeli occupation as the most critical threat facing Palestine and their most preferred countries are Turkey, Qatar, and China. In a comparison between China's and U.S. foreign policies, the Palestinian public views China's policies more positively than those of the U.S. on all issues at hand. Wide-ranging opposition to Arab normalization with Israel remains as strong as it was two years ago, but most express optimism about the world's solidarity with the Palestinians, and the vast majority expresses opposition to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. These are the results of the latest wave of the Arab Barometer (AB) poll in Palestine, the 8th to be conducted since the start of these polls in the Arab World. The poll was conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip essentially during the period immediately before the start of the October the 7th war in the Gaza Strip and its envelop on the Israeli side. The period leading up to the poll witnessed a number of important developments, including the 30th anniversary of the signing of the Oslo Accords. The period saw a rise in the number of Israeli incursions into Palestinian cities and refugee camps, particularly in the northern parts of the West Bank. During this period, Palestinian factional leaders met in City of El Alamein in Egypt in the presence of President Abbas but failed to agree on a joint statement. During this period, settler terrorist acts in Palestinian areas of the West Bank increased, as did armed attacks by Palestinians against settlers and Israelis. Finally, there have been press reports that there are US-Saudi negotiations to reach an agreement to normalize SaudiIsraeli relations and that Palestinian-Saudi and Palestinian-American meetings have been held to set Palestinian conditions for this normalization agreement. This report is the second in a series of reports that cover the findings of the current wave of AB. It addresses one important issues covered by AB8: Palestinian perception of various international and regional actors and other international relations issues. While the focus is placed on the findings of AB8 regarding these topics, the report sets to compare these findings with those obtained by PSR in AB7, conducted two years earlier, and one poll conducted after AB8.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Normalization, and October 7
- Political Geography:
- China, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Qatar
50. Tunisia: Public Opinion Report 2023
- Author:
- Arab Barometer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- Over the past dozen years, Tunisia has experienced dramatic political change. In 2011, the Jasmine Revolution led to the fall of its long-standing leader, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, ushering in a period of political instability. Following the rewriting of the constitution, free and fair elections were held but yielded only weak and largely ineffective governments. Although Tunisians enjoyed far greater political rights, economically the country regressed. A decade after the revolution, GDP per capita had declined significantly. Stories of corruption within government institutions remained common, yielding an increasingly frustrated public. Elections may give voters a say, but the outcomes of the system often appeared no better than in the days of Ben Ali. Citizens demanded radical change and looked for a leader who they believed could deliver actual results. In the 2019 presidential elections, many Tunisians turned to Kaïs Saïed as a solution. Saïed ran a populist campaign as a political outsider, calling for ending corruption and reforms to the electoral system. In the final round of voting, he captured nearly three-quarters of the vote for an overwhelming victory and strong electoral mandate. In July 2021, Saïed dismissed the prime minister and suspended parliament. Ruling by decree, many members of the judiciary were dismissed and many opposition politicians were arrested. Despite international criticism of these actions, results from the 2021 Arab Barometer demonstrated that most Tunisians were in favor of his actions.1 Just three months after the events of July 25, 2021, most Tunisians had confidence in the president, a majority were optimistic about their economic future for the first time in years, and most believed the government was finally tackling the problem of corruption. In short, many Tunisians had hope for their country’s future. In late 2023, Tunisians remained more optimistic than they had been before the election of Saïed, but Arab Barometer’s survey suggests that some are starting to lose hope. Promises of economic improvements have not been realized—just one-in-ten rate the economy as good, which is largely unchanged since 2013. Economic optimism has also fallen, dropping by 14 points since 2021. During this period, hunger has also increased dramatically, with twothirds of Tunisians saying they have gone without food at least once in the previous month. Moreover, the most common perception is that government mismanagement is the source of food insecurity. Views of most political institutions are relatively weak. Just over a third have confidence in the government while less than a quarter trust parliament. However, trust in President Saïed remains strong, with about three-quarters expressing confidence in their leader. Still, this level is a six point decrease from 2021.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Migration, Governance, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Institutions, Freedom, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Tunisia