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5151. Corruption Assessment Report for Turkey

Author:
Zerrin Cengiz, Pelin Yenigün Dilek, Ezgican Özdemir, Hande Özhabeş, R. Bülent Tarhan, Ayşe Üstünel Yırcalı, and H. Ceren Zeytinoğlu
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
he Corruption Assessment Report for Turkey is the product of the research conducted by TESEV’s Good Governance program under the Southeast European Leadership for Development and Integrity (SELDI) initiative. This report documents the agenda of the first phase of the SELDI partnership that spans 2012 through 2014. Along with presenting evidence on the degree of corruption in Turkey, the report analyzes the current legal setting and the effects of corruption on the economy. It emphasizes the importance of a free judicial system, the role of civil society, and the benefits of international collaboration in fighting corruption. The report also offers possible solutions to fighting corruption, focusing on the elements that make corruption commonplace.
Topic:
Civil Society, Corruption, Accountability, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

5152. The EU’s Niche in the South Caucasus: Old Partners, New Challenges

Author:
Daniel Khachatryan
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Daniel Khachatryan is a Hrant Dink Foundation fellow at the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV) within the framework of the Support to the Armenia-Turkey Normalisation Process Programme financed by the European Union. Khachatryan’s academic background includes studies at Yerevan State University, University of Oslo and Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University. In this article, Khachatryan dwells upon the possible steps to be taken by the EU towars the South Caucasus in order to define its role in the region by focusing on the recent developments in Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. Daniel Khachatryan, Avrupa Birliği tarafından finanse edilen ve Hrant Dink Vakfı’nın yürütmekte olduğu “Ermenistan-Türkiye Normalleşme Süreci Destek Programı” kapsamında bursiyer olarak TESEV’de çalışmaktadır. Erivan Devlet Üniversitesi, Oslo Üniversitesi ve Tufts Üniversitesi’nde eğitimini tamamlamış olan Khachatryan bu makalesinde Azerbaycan, Ermenistan ve Gürcistan’daki gelişmelere odaklanarak Avrupa Birliği’nin Güney Kafkasya’daki yeri ve rolünü tanımlamak için atması gereken muhtemel adımlara ve mekanizmalara değinmektedir. Makale yalnızca İngilizce olarak yayınlanmıştır.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, European Union, and Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and South Caucasus

5153. Research on Public Trust in the Police in Turkey

Author:
Nur Kırmızıdağ
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Research on Public Trust in the Police in Turkey, is based on survey data collected on a large-scale sample representative of Turkey. The report provides insights on perceptions of the public with regard to effectiveness/performance, legitimacy of the police and thereby lays bare the level of trust different segments in Turkey attribute to the police. The report utilizes sophisticated statistical methods and, for the first time in Turkey comprehensive scientific models on police trust are being applied giving the opportunity to comparatively analyze the results. Thus the following questions are examined in the report: What is the level of public trust towards police? What are the main components of police trust in Turkey? In how far do police legitimacy and police effectiveness/performance affect police trust in Turkey? What are the factors influencing public’s perception of police legitimacy and effectiveness? How does public’s perception of police legitimacy and effectiveness affect cooperation with and compliance to the police? How does this perception affect public’s toleration of police misconduct? How does public perception of police legitimacy, effectiveness and trust change with regard to different demographic factors in Turkey (political affiliation, ethnic background, religious affinity etc.)?
Topic:
Security, Law Enforcement, Democracy, Legitimacy, Statistics, and Police
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

5154. Effects of the Syrian Refugees on Turkey

Author:
Oytun Orhan
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
TESEV Foreign Policy Program and ORSAM (Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies) in order to understand the effects of Syrian asylum seekers to Turkey, visited Adana, Osmaniye, Hatay, Kilis, Gaziantep, Şanlıurfa, Mersin and Kahramanmaraş respectively during four different field study trips in three months. They held series of meetings with municipalities, professional organizations, chambers of trade and industry, civil society organizations, opinion leaders, locals and Syrians. This report has been prepared in the light of the observations and data gained from these field studies.
Topic:
Civil Society, Migration, Refugees, Refugee Crisis, Syrian War, Public Policy, and Services
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

5155. The Super Survey: Two Decades of Americans’ Views on Islam & Muslims

Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
In a climate of increased suspicion and skepticism towards Islam and Muslims, polling data collected over the years reveals how Americans have come to view their country’s third-largest religious group. This Super Survey, which compiles and analyzes polling questions collected by over a dozen polling organizations from 1993 to 2014, finds that Americans remain unfamiliar with Islam; feel more coldly towards Muslims than any other religious group; and tend to see Islam as “more violent” than other religions during national debates about military action in the Middle East. Additionally, while they have been supportive of mosques in their communities, a sizeable portion has favored various measures of religious profiling. In the twenty-first century, on average, six in 10 Americans has reported that they don’t know a Muslim personally. And while a plurality of Americans has reported having favorable views of Muslims since 2000, unfavorable views have persisted, with relatively little fluctuation over time.
Topic:
Islam, Religion, Public Opinion, Ideology, and Islamophobia
Political Geography:
United States

5156. Study to quantify and analyse the VAT Gap in the EU Member States. 2015 Report

Author:
Luca Barbone, Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovsky, and Grzegorz Poniatowski
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This report provides estimates of the VAT Gap for 26 EU Member States for 2013, as well as revised estimates for the period 2009-2012. It is a follow-up to the report “Study to quantify and analyse the VAT Gap in the EU-27 Member Statess, published in September 2013 (hereafter: 2013 Report), and to the report “2012 Update Report to the Study to Quantify and Analyse the VAT Gap in the EU-27 Member States” , published in October 2014 (hereafter: 2014 Report). As in previous reports, it was not possible to include estimates for Croatia and Cyprus, due to as-yet-incomplete national account statistics for the two countries. The VAT Gap is an indicator of the effectiveness of VAT enforcement and compliance measures, as it provides an estimate of revenue loss due to fraud and evasion, tax avoidance, bankruptcies, financial insolvencies as well as miscalculations. As the VAT Gap in this study is based on a top-down approach, it does not readily lend itself to be deconstructed according to industrial sectors or other criteria (territorial, professional), and can be best used as a diagnostic tool in the context of its evolution over time. As discussed in previous reports, the VAT Gap is defined as the difference between the amount of VAT actually collected and the VAT Total Tax Liability (VTTL), in absolute or percentage terms. The VTTL is an estimated amount of VAT that is theoretically collectable based on the VAT legislation and ancillary regulations. This report calculates, for each country the VTTL on the basis of national accounts, by mapping information on standard, reduced rates and exemptions onto data available on final and intermediate consumption, as well as gross fixed capital formation, from national accounts and use tables. Thus, the quality of the VAT Gap estimates depends on the accuracy and completeness of national accounts data and use tables. The year 2013 saw a continuing overall unfavourable economic environment, as the GDP of the European Union was nearly stagnant. This contributed to a slowdown of nominal final consumption and of other economic aggregates that form the basis of the Value Added Tax. Six countries applied changes to standard or reduced rates in 2013, marking a relatively stable policy environment. During 2013, the overall VAT Total Tax Liability (VTTL) for the EU-26 Member States grew by about 1.2 percent, while collected VAT revenues rose by 1.1 percent. As a result, the overall VAT Gap in the EU-26 saw an increase in absolute values of about Euro 2.8 billion, to reach Euro 168 billion. As a percentage, the overall VAT Gap stayed constant at 15.2 percent. The median VAT Gap rose by 1.6 percentage point, to reach 13.9 percent. In 2013, Member States’ estimated VAT Gaps ranged from the low of 4 percent in Finland, the Netherlands and Sweden, to the high of 41 percent in Romania. Overall, 15 Member States decreased their VAT Gap, with the largest improvements noted in Latvia, Malta and Slovakia. 11 Member States saw an increase in the VAT Gap, generally of small magnitudes, with the largest deteriorations in Estonia and Italy. This report also provides new and expanded evidence on the Policy Gap for the EU-26. The Policy Gap is an indicator of the additional VAT revenue that a Member State could theoretically collect if it applied standard rate to all consumption of goods and services supplied for consideration. We provide here estimates of the Policy Gap adjusted to take into account items that could not easily be taxed even in an “ideal” system (imputed rents, public goods, financial services). The results moderate views of the relative importance of reduced rates and exemptions in reducing the revenue potential of VAT, and suggest that better enforcement remains a key component of any strategy of improvement of the VAT system. The results of this report and the underlying data were presented to Member States in advance of publication and discussed on several occasions with the representatives of Member States. Deviating approaches and views of Member States are noted in the relevant country section in Chapter 3. The authors are grateful for the constructive cooperation and helpful input of Member States.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, Innovation, VAT, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe and European Union

5157. Transfer of know-how to small and mid-size businesses in Georgia – White paper

Author:
Maya Grigolia, Lasha Labadze, Pavol Minarik, Alena Zemplinerova, and Marek Vokoun
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This report has been prepared in the framework of the project “Transfer of know-how to small and mid-size businesses” of the International Visegrad Fund (IVF) and USAID. It summarizes the conditions of the SME sector (small and medium size enterprises) in Georgia, identifies the main problems in their development and provides recommendations for further interventions based on the Czech experience, existing literature and a survey implemented among SME stakeholders. Georgia generally receives favorable evaluations of its business environment. It ranks high in indices of economic freedom and is among the top countries with respect to ease of starting and doing business. On the other hand, the SME sector suffers from several problems. The most serious obstacle to SME development seems to be in the area of finance; access to finance is difficult for SMEs and the cost of credit is high. Human capital and innovations are among the weak points of Georgian SMEs as well. The different shortcomings of the environment and markets call for different interventions. The paper is roadmap of concrete activities – it contains a set of recommendations to support SMEs development drawn on three different sources: first, the theoretical foundations of entrepreneurship policy, second, the Czech experience and know-how in the SME sector, and finally, the ideas of local experts and stakeholders generated during interviews and workshops. Activities and recommendations have been divided into “generic,” which relate to a particular determinant of business environment and have an impact across industries and sectors such as access to financing, education, developing skills training, R&D, innovation, export strategy, start-ups, and those which are “sector-specific,” such as banking, health and agriculture. Political stability, the main problem in Georgia, is beyond the scope of possible interventions.
Topic:
Development, Reform, Business, Economic Growth, Institutions, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

5158. Sovereign Bond Purchases and Risk-Sharing Arrangements – Implications for Monetary Policy

Author:
Monika Blaszkiewicz
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The design of the euro area Quantitative Easing (QE) programme raises the question of whether insufficient liquidity in the bond markets will reduce the impact of the programme and lead to market volatility. While estimates suggests that scarcity of around €102 billion may arise over the life of the programme, to date the QE programme has met its monthly targets and bond market volatility has been managed. Questions also arise in respect of the fact that risk is not fully shared on up to €738.4 billion to be purchased over the life of the programme. Partial risk sharing raises the spectre of defaulting central banks exiting the euro system, and existing members being unwilling to bear associated costs, and thus the future of the euro area. However, estimations suggest that, at present, all national central banks should be able to bare losses stemming from sovereign debt purchases under the current round of QE. This report was prepared within a research project entitled Sovereign bond purchases and risk sharing arrangements: Implications for euro-area monetary policy, which received funding from the European Parliament.
Topic:
Finance, Economic Growth, Banks, Trade, and European Central Bank
Political Geography:
Europe and European Union

5159. Revisiting the Latvian and Greek Financial Crises: The Benefits of Front-Loading Fiscal Adjustment

Author:
Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This paper discusses why Greece has done so poorly in comparison with all other European Union countries since the onslaught of the global financial crisis in 2008. To show what was wrong with its fiscal adjustment, this paper compares Greece with the other European Union country that was hit be the most severe fiscal crisis, namely Latvia. The conclusion is that front-loaded fiscal adjustment works much better. Greek economic policy has been a popular topic among opinion writers, notably Nobel Prize winner and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, who claimed that Greece suffered from austerity. Because of his prominence in the international public debate, I shall scrutinize his arguments on the Greek crisis. The paper also examines what policy the International Monetary Fund has pursued with regard to Greece, and how its views have been influenced by the debate and Greek economic developments. Finally, the paper assesses what lessons can be drawn from the contrasting experiences of Latvia and Greece. The conclusion is that a fiscal adjustment should be sufficient to resolve the crisis to restore confidence and that it should be as front-loaded as is practically and politically possible.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Finance, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Greece, and Latvia

5160. The impact of living and working longer on pension income in five European countries: Estonia, Finland, Hungary, the Netherlands and Poland

Author:
Andres Võrk, Anna Ruzik-Sierdzińska, Elena Jarocinska, Niku Määttänen, Robert Gál, and Theo Nijman
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Life expectancies are rapidly increasing and uncertain in all countries in Europe. To keep pension systems affordable, policy reforms are to be implemented which will encourage individuals to work longer. In this paper we analyze the impact of working and living longer on pension incomes in five European countries and assess the impact of these policy reforms on the financial well-being of the elderly. The paper shows the diversity of the policy measures taken in these countries. Furthermore, we analyze the financial incentives for working longer and postponing claiming pension benefits and we assess the attractiveness of these options. Lastly, we study how increases in life expectancies and survival probabilities affect pension incomes.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Social Policy, Labor Policies, Public Policy, Innovation, and Aging
Political Geography:
Europe, Finland, Poland, Estonia, Hungary, Netherlands, and European Union

5161. Transfer of Know-how for SMEs in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. White Paper: Moldova

Author:
Gabor Hunya, Lidis Garbovan, Magdolna Sass, and Oliver Kovacs
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The report focuses on the potential of the development of small and mid-size businesses in Moldova. It provides an economic overview of the country, and then analyzes various best practices and lessons learned from the development of SMEs in the Visegrad countries, especially Hungary. The report provides a description of economic developments, main trade figures, relevant labor developments, migration and the role of remittances and defines the bottlenecks for SME development in the country. The authors built their analysis on available literature and statistics as well as their own survey and interview series. The study highlights six case studies relevant for SME development selected for deeper investigation such as simplified tax schemes, online tax reporting, entrepreneurship education, agriculture and producers’ organizations, the wine industry and issues of measurement of the SME sector. Finally the report draws up potential intervention schemes for Moldovan stakeholders and provides further recommendations for longer term initiatives and actions taken for the support of economic and SME development.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, Business, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Caucasus, Moldova, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

5162. Transfer of Know-how for Small and Mid-size Businesses in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine White Paper: Ukraine

Author:
Vladimir Dubrovskiy
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The publication was issued within the project ‘Transfer of Know-How for Small and Mid-size Businesses in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine’ which aims to assist SMEs in those countries by providing support to stakeholders in their efforts to develop analytical and policy advocacy capabilities and by opening new channels of communication between SMEs and NGOs in the Visegrad Four countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) and the rest of the European Union. The objective of the study is to deliver the complete findings and outcomes of the project aimed at Ukraine. This White Paper serves as an authoritative document with action plans, budgets, and a tangible way for the beneficiary country stakeholders to move forward with the agenda of small and medium-sized business development. It presents an overview of the collected background information and contains basic data on the countries, including some key macroeconomic comparisons as well as rankings in major competitiveness reports (e.g. Doing Business report by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development), identifies the project stakeholders and provides an overview of the situation of small and medium-sized enterprises in Ukraine. It also includes the findings of two surveys implemented by the Slovak-Ukrainian team. Based on the findings, the “Discussion and Recommendations” section presents various perspectives on the problems of SMEs in Ukraine using the experience of the accession process of Slovakia, specific examples of key initiatives that led to the resolution of the problems, as well as case studies from various industries. It stresses the involvement of all parties including the EU, local governments, civil society, business associations, and the SMEs themselves. The key outcome of the paper is a road map – a very specific plan of actions including schedules, budgets, and other details within the scope of this project that will help the beneficiary country to cope with problems regarding the agenda of small and middle business development using the expertise and experience of institutions and stakeholders accumulated throughout the Slovak EU accession process. It includes a wide range of activities including a discussion of the project results with various Ukrainian stakeholders, workshops aimed at increasing knowledge about EU markets, legislation and standards, as well as strategic and institutional moves.
Topic:
Development, Business, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Caucasus, Moldova, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

5163. Corporate debt securities market in Poland: state of art, problems, and prospects for development

Author:
Agnieszka Gontarek, Piotr Kowalski, and Tomasz Gałka
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The development of the Polish corporate bonds market resulted from changes on the supply side. When the Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, Polish entrepreneurs realized that financing their companies’ operations only with the use of credit, even if contracted from different sources, might not be the best idea. Consequently, Polish business turned to debt instruments – said Piotr Kowalski, one of the keynote speakers during the mBank - CASE Seminar no. 136. In the publication, which is an extended and authorized version of presentations delivered during the abovementioned seminar, the authors discuss various aspects of the corporate debt securities market in Poland. Piotr Kowalski gives a synthetic presentation of the subject of the analysis, Agieszka Gontarek presents selected domestic regulations and factors, and Tomasz Gałka writes about selected consequences of excessive burdens.
Topic:
Debt, Business, Economic Growth, Banks, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Poland

5164. An assessment of direct and indirect liabilities of Polish banks AD 2015

Author:
Marek Radzikowski and Mieczysław Groszek
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The present document is an attempt at a comprehensive analysis of direct and indirect burdens imposed upon banks in 2015. The idea to present such factors — which are often extremely varied in nature — in a single study was born out of the fact that these factors are often considered separately, on the basis of various criteria, which causes them to be split into different groups. This approach results in a fairly common tendency for fragmentary assessment of their impact and, more importantly, in the adoption of piecemeal regulations which fail to take into account the full impact of the actions taken in different areas. This applies in equal measures to supervisory authorities, regulators, analysts, policymakers and the media, which means that, in a somewhat oversimplified sense, the above statement is applicable to the public at large. This situation can be most succinctly characterised in the manner presented below. In the aftermath of the crisis, banks require a new set of instruments to regulate the functioning thereof. This is because they are to become more stable, safe, less risk-prone and more customer-friendly. Each of these areas requires a separate set of regulatory instruments, along with the respective subgroups thereof. Oftentimes they are not synchronised with each other and are usually aimed at the implementation of a specific, particular goal to an excessive extent. In addition, there are also “special tasks” such as the reform of the Credit and Saving Unions (SKOK).
Topic:
Finance, Economic Growth, Banks, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, Poland, and European Union

5165. The Banking Union: State of Art

Author:
Andrzej Reich and Stefan Kawalec
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
It is widely believed that the creation of the banking union initiated the integration of the EU banking market. The process is traced back to June 2012 (EU Summit decided to create the banking union), 4 November 2013 (effective date of the Banking Union Regulation), or 4 November 2014 (operational launch of the Single Supervisory Mechanism, SSM). However, the integration of the EU banking market began much earlier and the creation of the banking union should be considered the final rather than the initial step in the process.
Topic:
Finance, Financial Markets, Regional Integration, Banks, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and European Union

5166. A quarter century of economic reforms in Ukraine: too late, too slow, too little

Author:
Oleh Havrylyshyn
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The first aim of this paper is to describe the main developments in the Ukrainian economy since its independence in 1991, focusing on the evolution of output, and the path of economic reforms — that is, to simply show what happened. The bottom line on that is well known: Ukraine’s economy performed very poorly, and its reforms moved quite slowly, lagging behind most of Central Europe and the Baltic, and even behind some FSU (Former Soviet Union) countries. This first task is a relatively easy one, though some measurement issues do need discussion. In comparison, the second aim — explaining why it happened, identifying the explanatory, causal factors — is much more difficult and contentious. Indeed, causation here means two dynamics: the relationship between performance and reform pace, and the underlying determinants of the slow reforms. The paper’s main effort will be to argue and present evidence that the poor economic performance is primarily due to the late and slow start on economic reforms. However, it only begins to point to the explanations for slow reforms and suggest a modeling approach to analyze this econometrically in future work.
Topic:
Development, Markets, Economy, Transitional Justice, Institutions, and Trade Liberalization
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

5167. On Competition in the Banking Sector in Poland and Europe Before and During the Crisis

Author:
Małgorzata Pawłowska
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
In the past decades, the banking sector has come to be known in literature as the banking industry as it was geared to increasing profits, banks were growing, and banking products developed dynamically. It was believed that competition in the banking sector makes banks more efficient and stimulates financial innovation opening new markets. The financial crisis of 2007–2008 has sparked the interest of researchers and politicians in competition in the banking sector and its impact on the stability of the financial sector and overall economic growth. However, researchers cannot agree whether more competition improves or hinders stability. The paper is comprised of three sections and a summary. The first section discusses the concept of competition in the banking sector as well as measures of competition. The second section is a review of literature on competition in the banking sector and its determinants. The third section presents the results of research on competition in the EU, including my own research as well as other research. The paper concludes with a short summary. This publication was presented by Małgorzata Pawłowska during the 134th mBank-CASE Seminar "The global financial crisis: changes in competition in the banking sector in Europe, the role of regulation and intervention by governments and central banks".
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Finance, Economy, Global Financial Crisis, and Banks
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and European Union

5168. India’s Sustainable Development Led Approach to Climate Mitigation for Paris

Author:
Navroz K. Dubash
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
What should India put forward as the mitigation component of its climate contribution? India has dual interests in climate negotiations: safeguarding adequate energy for development, and promoting an effective international agreement to limit its climate vulnerability. To balance these interests, India should pledge well-developed sector-specific actions that maximize synergies across development and climate outcomes. This approach will avoid lock-in to a high carbon growth path while enhancing development. Sectoral actions could include an additional component conditional on availability of international climate finance. In addition, an updated emissions intensity target would serve as a useful complement to sectorally focused action.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Energy Policy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Global Focus

5169. Physician Shortages in the Indian Public Sector

Author:
Anjali Chikersal
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
India is one of the few countries that has been estimated to have a “critical” shortage of health workers and therefore unlikely to be able to provide essential health interventions to its people (WHO 2006). The dire impacts of these shortages are evident from the fact that it has fallen short of meeting its MDG goals on several fronts. As the current discourse on Universal Health Care debates the means of expanding coverage to all citizens, the one aspect universally agreed upon is the persistent challenge that a shortage of health workforce in the public sector poses, and the pressing need to address this gap. This policy brief outlines the core issues at the root of the problem and examines the reasons for the severe shortages in the key element of this workforce, the physicians, in the Indian public sector. It then provides an overview of WHO’s Global Policy Recommendations to address this challenge and looks at the strategies that various Indian states have so far adopted. Finally, it offers a set of practical and goal oriented recommendations aimed at directly and urgently addressing the challenge in the Indian context.
Topic:
Health, Governance, Health Care Policy, Public Policy, and Public Sector
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

5170. The Curious Case of GDP Growth

Author:
Rajiv Kumar and Geetima Das Krishna
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The Central Statistics Office (CSO), the custodian of Indian statistics, has faced a lot of questioning after the release of the new GDP series with 2011-12 as base. The RBI, Ministry of Finance, IMF, several credit rating agencies have all questioned the validity of the revisions. Some analysts like Ruchir Sharma of Morgan Stanley have gone as far as to assert that these revisions if not corrected will make Indian statics as suspect as Chinese GDP data in the past. This will be a real pity. The extent of the revisions is shown in Table 1 below. With the new base year of 2012-13, GDP growth in FY 14 (2013-14) has been revised upwards to 6.6% at factor cost and a whopping 6.9% at market prices. This represents about 2% increase in GDP growth over the earlier estimate of 5%. Surely, such a large scale revision will or should significantly affect the understanding of the underlying economic phenomenon and lead to a marked policy shift. Contrary to what Surjit S Bhalla (SSB) would have us believe, not even the government is taking the revised estimates seriously enough as reflected in a lack of any change in policy direction.
Topic:
Political Economy, GDP, Economy, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

5171. Macroeconomic Update: Early Signs of Rise in Investment

Author:
Geetima Das Krishna and Rajiv Kumar
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Economic recovery remains fragile on the back of a weak consumption demand. Sustained high growth will be achieved only with an upturn in the investment cycle. The government seems to have understood the importance of pump-priming the capex cycle directly through higher public capital expenditure and front loading the expenditure. While private investment remains muted due to stressed corporate balance sheets, weak external and domestic demand prospects and commercial banks’ cautious approach to expanding credit, there are some early signs that the private investment cycle is likely to turn around in the next six to nine months.
Topic:
Government, Economic Growth, Banks, Investment, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

5172. Macroeconomic Update: Indian Exports: Loss of Global Competitiveness

Author:
Rajiv Kumar and Geetima Das Krishna
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
India’s exports have declined for six consecutive monthssince December 2014 with an average decline of 13.85% yoy. The decline was broad-based. Even exports of Manufactured goods trended lower during this time and failed to compensate for the fall in nominal value of commodity exports, which declined due to a huge erosion of global commodity and oil prices. India’s exports seem to have become more reliant on global commodity prices in recent years. In line with global crude oil prices, India’s monthly petroleum exports that peaked in July’14 at $7 billion shrunk to mere $2.4 billion in May 2015, declining at an average of 52% since the start of the year. Iron ore exports having peaked at $509.5 million in December 2011 moved from $129.5 million in April 2014 to $10 million in May 2015. It is instructive to take a longer term perspective of export performance (Please see Chart I below). Average export growth hasremained almoststagnantsince January 2012 after a sharp bounce back from the collapse in the first and second quarters of 2009, induced by the global financial crisis. Export growth since October 2011 (50 months) is much lower than the robust 20% average clocked during the seven year period of April 2002- March 2009. (marginally lower than the 23% rate of growth assumed for the five year period of 2015-16 to 2020-21 in the Foreign Trade Policy announced in early 2015).
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Oil, Economic Growth, Commodities, Exports, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Global Markets

5173. 2015 Symposium Sheds Light on Complexities of Shale Oil

Author:
Tareq Radi
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
This year’s symposium, entitled “An Energy Revolution? Political Ecologies of Shale Oil in the Middle East, US, and China,” set out to assess the political, economic, human, and environmental impacts of shale oil and its technologies of extractiong lobally, and particularly on the societies and economies of the MENA region.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, and Academia
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, and United States of America

5174. Examining the Future of Authoritarianism in the Arab World

Author:
Joseph Sassoon
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
Dr. Joseph Sassoon has spent the past few years working to improve our understanding of authoritarian governments that are typically inscrutable to outsiders, focusing first on the Ba‘th Party under Saddam Hussein for his book Saddam Hussein’s Ba‘th Party: Inside an Authoritarian Regime and, more recently, conducting a comparative analysis of eight authoritarian regimes in the Arab world. Dr. Sassoon’s comparative analysis, which he recently finalized during a fellowship at the Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars, looks at differences and commonalities among these coercive governments and will be published in his forthcoming book, Anatomy of Authoritarianism in the Arab Republics.
Topic:
History, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Interview, and Baath Party
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Arab Countries, Syria, Egypt, and Tunisia

5175. George Salem: A Mission of Love

Author:
Vicki Valosik
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
For more than three decades, CCAS Board Member George Salem has sought ways to improve the lives of Palestinians and Arab Americans.
Topic:
Government, Humanitarian Aid, Business, Profile, and Advocacy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

5176. Innovative Approaches to Teaching About the Middle East

Author:
Susan Douglass
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
The Education Outreach program of the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies hosted nine events for educators during the 2014-2015 academic year. As a National Resource Center, CCAS was able to support these programs, in part, with funding from a Title VI grant from the Department of Education. These events included the annual summer institute and a Teach-In on Iraq and Syria, while several other innovative events fell under three main themes: literature, anthropology, and cultural exploration through interactive museum excursions.
Topic:
Education, Anthropology, and Higher Education
Political Geography:
Middle East, North America, and United States of America

5177. MAAS Students Bring Scholars and Activists to Campus

Author:
Vicki Valosik
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
This semester, second-year students in the Masters of Arts in Arab Studies (MAAS) program planned several major campuswide events that brought together scholars and activists—some coming from as far away as Morocco—and gave these student organizers the opportunity to explore their academic interests outside the classroom.
Topic:
Security, Education, Political Activism, Arab Countries, Higher Education, and Advocacy
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, North America, and United States of America

5178. Remembering and Making History in Egypt

Author:
Vicki Valosik
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
Dr. Hoda Elsadda has spent years documenting history—as it has been lived and experienced by women in Egypt—but this time she’s the one making history. Elsadda, a Professor of English and Comparative Literature at Cairo University and current Carnegie Foundation Centennial Fellow at the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, served on the “Committee of 50” delegates who wrote the historic 2014 Egyptian constitution.
Topic:
Human Rights, History, Women, Constitution, Arab Spring, and Higher Education
Political Geography:
Middle East, North America, Egypt, and United States of America

5179. Sabbatical Secrets & Buying Books in Beirut

Author:
Daniel Neep
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
The sabbatical is a cornerstone of the modern research university. Faculty are granted a semester away from the usual responsibilities of teaching and grading, supervising dissertations, and serving on committees, allowing professors to dedicate their energy to aspects of their work that can be neglected during the academic year. Sabbatical allows professors to immerse themselves in the field, bury themselves in archives, collaborate with colleagues at different institutions, and discover new ideas to enrich their research. At the same time—and this is a closely guarded secret among those initiated into the mysteries of academe—spending a sabbatical in a new place enables us to pursue one of the most sacred, most noble, and most enjoyable duties of our calling as scholars: the copious, hedonistic purchase of piles and piles of books..
Topic:
Research and Higher Education
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arab Countries, and Lebanon

5180. Iran’s Failed Foreign Policy: Dealing from a Position of Weakness

Author:
Thomas Juneau
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
In this MEI Policy Paper, Thomas Juneau examines Iran’s role in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and the Arab-Israeli conflict to explain why Iran is not a “rising regional hegemon” but rather a “mid-sized regional power frustrated at not reaching its ambitions.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Power Politics, Nuclear Power, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, and Syria

5181. Defying Gravity: Working Toward a Regional Strategy for a Stable Middle East

Author:
Ross Harrison
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
In this MEI Policy Paper, Ross Harrison asserts that a new regional order is emerging out of the conflicts of the Middle East. The relationships among the pillars of this order--Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Iran--are crucial, as they will largely determine "whether the future of the Middle East will be a continuation of the current chaos and destruction or a more positive transition toward stability and prosperity." Harrison argues that global powers must concentrate on creating conditions conducive to cooperation among the pillars.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt

5182. Arab Armed Forces: State Makers or State Breakers?

Author:
Robert Springborg
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Proliferation and intensification of coercive force in the Arab world since 2011, combined with apparent decay of Arab states, seems at first glance to run counter to the implicit predictions of two relevant bodies of literature. The modernization school, which emerged as Arab states were becoming independent in the 1950s, held that Arab militaries were state builders—mobilizing, integrating, and organizing their societies to face development challenges, including that of inter-state war. More or less simultaneously, European-focused historical sociology, led by Charles Tilly, made the case that war making, requiring as it does increased domestic extraction coupled with subordination to central authority of internal rivals, was the engine of state making. And indeed, the historical trajectory of the Arab world for some half a century up until 2011 seemed to substantiate both views, as militaries and states grew in tandem under the ever present threat of war.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Democracy, State, and Monarchy
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries

5183. Recalibration and Surprises: A Primer on the Middle East and the 2016 Presidential Election

Author:
Allen Keiswetter
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
This is a capstone paper for a series of MEI scholar articles titled “The Middle East and the 2016 Presidential Elections." Will the 2016 vote for president be a foreign policy election? How will the Middle East figure in the campaign as it gains momentum? The accepted wisdom is that domestic issues, especially economic matters, will be decisive in voters’ minds. A year away from the election, it is unclear whether foreign policy issues will figure in a major way but the portent is there. The turbulent Middle East could easily burst into election politics as it has several times in the past.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:
Middle East, North America, and United States of America

5184. A Democracy Assembly to Face the New Authoritarian Challenges

Author:
Ladan Boroumand
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL)
Abstract:
Sixteen years after the first World Movement Assembly, the situation has dramatically changed. We no longer have the strong wind of triumphant democracy in our sails. Instead, we are facing a reinvigorated wind of authoritarianism that defies us not only in practice but also ideologically and tests our understanding of our own values, our consistency, and our commitment. During the last wave of democratization, civil society emerged as a recognized and legitimate actor on the international stage. If as civil society actors we are being silenced and made irrelevant in our countries, with the help of democratic governments and the global human-rights community we can use the virtual and international stage to reemerge as strong, relevant actors and impose ourselves as our governments’ interlocutors.
Topic:
Civil Society, Human Rights, Authoritarianism, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Latin America and Global Focus

5185. Türkiye’nin Ortadoğu Politikası | Turkey’s Middle East Policy 2015

Author:
Kemal İnat, Muhittin Ataman, and Açılım Kitap
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
2015 yılında Türkiye’nin Ortadoğu politikasında yaşanan gelişmelerin ele alındığı bu yazıda, Türkiye’nin özellikle kendisini çok yakından ilgilendiren Ortadoğu sorunları konusundaki yaklaşımı analiz edilmiştir. Bu çerçevede Suriye ve Irak sorunları konusunda Türkiye’nin politikası açısından önem arz eden gelişmeler incelenmiş ve bu gelişmelerin Türkiye’nin İran gibi bölge ülkeleriyle ilişkilerine etkisi analiz edilmiştir. Aynı şekilde söz konusu sorunların Türkiye’nin ABD, Rusya ve Avrupa Birliği gibi küresel güçlerle ilişkileri açısından ne tür etkilerde bulunduğu da ele alınmıştır. Son olarak Türkiye ile Ortadoğu ülkeleri arasındaki ekonomik ilişkiler de makale çerçevesinde incelenmiştir. | In this paper, which analyzes the Turkish foreign policy initiatives regarding the Middle East in 2015, the focus particularly lies on events that are of great importance for Turkey. In this framework Ankara’s policies towards the Iraq and Syria problems are examined and also its effects on Turkey’s relationship to regional states like Iran are matter of analysis. Also the question of how these problems influence Turkey’s affairs with international actors like the USA, Russia and the European Union, is tried to be answered. Finally, the study explores economic ties between Turkey and the Middle East countries.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Economics
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Turkey, and Syria

5186. Avrupa Birliği’nin Filistin Politikası | European Union’s Palestine Policy

Author:
Fatma Zehra Toçoğlu
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
Bu çalışmada Avrupa Birliği’nin Ortadoğu’ya olan ilgisi ve bu bağlamda Filistin-İsrail meselesine yaklaşımı incelenmektedir. Avrupa Birliği’nin kuruluşuna kısaca değinildikten sonra dış politika konusunda yapmış olduğu çalışmalar ele alınacaktır. AB’nin genişleme sürecinden sonra komşuları ile güçlü ilişkiler kurmak için oluşturduğu Avrupa Komşuluk Politikası birimi ile sınırları dışındaki bölgelere olan ilgisi artmış, Filistinİsrail çatışmasında ortak bir dış politika belirleme çabasında olmuştur. AB kendisi için siyasi, stratejik ve ekonomik nedenlerden dolayı daima önemli bir bölge olarak gördüğü Ortadoğu ve özelde Filistin konusunda özel politikalar geliştirmiştir. Son zamanlarda Avrupa Birliği üye ülkeleri Filistin’i devlet olarak tanımayı gündemlerine aldı. Bu çerçevede makalede Avrupa Birliği’nin Filistin politikasının ekonomik ve siyasi yaklaşımları ortaya konulacaktır. | In this article, the question of how the EU is established and what kind of studies the EU undertook concerning foreign policy so far, is briefly discussed. The interest of the European Union in the Middle East is examined regarding the approach of the Palestinian - Israeli conflict. After the enlargement process, the EU has increased its interest in areas outside the borders of the EU Neighborhood Policy in order to build strong relationships with its neighbors and made efforts to define a common policy for the Palestine-Israel conflict. The EU developed particular policies for the Palestinian issue and the Middle East that are sprung from political, strategic and economic reasons. Recently, some EU member states put the recognition of the state of Palestine on their agenda. In this context, the EU’s approach toward the historical process of Palestine and the Palestinian issue is explored in this article.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

5187. Türk Dış Politikasında İslamcı-Kemalist Hesaplaşma: Erbakan Dönemi Libya Örneği | Islamist-Kemalist Reckoning in Turkish Foreign Policy: Libyan Case in the Erbakan Era

Author:
Talip Küçükcan
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
Campbell’ın ‘”çifte dışlama” (double exclusion) kavramsallaştırmasından yola çıkarak, dış politikanın içeride işlerlikte olan iktidar ilişkilerinin bir uzantısı olduğunu savunan bu çalışma, Erbakan dönemi iktidar ilişkilerine odaklanarak bu dönemin dış politikasını incelemektedir. Bu noktada Refah Partisi’nin Kemalizm’in sacayakları olan laiklik, ulus-devlet ve Batıcılık ilkelerini yerinden edici söylem ve pratikleri incelenecek ve bu dönem dış politikasının Kemalist yerleşiklerin iç siyasetteki tutunma alanları üzerindeki iç politik mücadelenin bir parçası olduğu gösterilmeye çalışılacaktır. Bu anlamda bilhassa Refah Parti iktidarının ilk aylarını fazlasıyla meşgul eden Libya konusu analiz edilecek ve konunun söz konusu iki blok arasındaki mücadelede hangi söylem ve pratikler çerçevesinde nasıl bir temsile oturtulduğuna bakılacaktır. | With reference to Campbell’s ‘double exclusion’ conceptualization, considering foreign policy as a continuation of domestic power struggle, this paper focuses on Turkish foreign policy while particularly taking into account the domestic power struggle in Erbakan’s first period. At this point, the paper analyzes the Welfare Party’s discourses and practices which are adverse to Kemalism’s trivet -secularism, nationstate and Westernism- and tries to show that foreign policy in this period is a part of a domestic struggle. In this sense, especially the Libya case which had exceedingly occupied the first months of the Welfare Party rule, is analyzed. A part of this analysis is also the question of how this issue is represented while taking a deeper look at the discourses and practices within the mentioned two blocks.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Islamism, Welfare, Political Parties, and Identity
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Libya

5188. Future Directions in the DPRK’S Nuclear Weapons Program: Three Scenarios for 2020

Author:
David Albright
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Science and International Security
Abstract:
Like many secret nuclear weapons programs, the DPRK goes to great lengths to hide its capabilities to produce nuclear explosive materials and nuclear weapons. Despite these actions, a picture can be drawn of North Korea’s current and projected plutonium and weapons-grade uranium (WGU) stocks. Knowing these plutonium and WGU stocks can, in turn, allow an estimate of the DPRK’s current number of nuclear weapons and a range of projections of the number North Korea could build in the next several years. Although great uncertainty surrounds these projections, as well as the quality of North Korea’s nuclear weapons, these projections form a reasonable picture of the DPRK’s possible nuclear weapons futures, absent actions to significantly limit its nuclear programs. After summarizing estimates of stocks of separated plutonium and weapons-grade uranium as of the end of 2014, this report develops three projections of future nuclear arsenals through 2020: low-end, medium, and high-end nuclear futures. In developing these projections, which are intended to bound North Korea’s nuclear futures, a number of constraints are considered, including the number and size of nuclear production facilities, future underground testing, the extent and success of nuclear weaponization efforts, costs, and access to necessary goods and classified and proprietary technologies abroad.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

5189. Civil HEU Watch Tracking: Inventories of Civil Highly Enriched Uranium: National and Global Stocks, as of End 2014

Author:
David Albright and Serena Kelleher-Vergantini
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Science and International Security
Abstract:
Highly enriched uranium (HEU) is a key ingredient in nuclear weapons, making it one of the most dangerous materials in existence. As a result, governments take extraordinary measures to secure HEU against theft or diversion and to reduce the inventories of HEU in the world. To that end, it is important to track how much civil HEU exists and where it is. However, national civil HEU stocks are difficult to estimate, with transparency policies varying by country and few countries providing official declarations of their stocks. As a result, this report contains the few official civil HEU declarations and estimates civil HEU stocks in countries that do not provide public declarations. This study relies on open source information to derive these estimates. It is an update of a report published in 2005.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Power, and Uranium
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5190. Military Highly Enriched Uranium and Plutonium Stocks in Acknowledged Nuclear Weapon States

Author:
David Albright and Serena Kelleher-Vergantini
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Science and International Security
Abstract:
Plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU), called “fissile materials,” were first produced in large quantities for use in nuclear weapons. Starting in World War II, and for over two decades afterwards, almost all the plutonium and HEU in the world was produced for these immensely destructive weapons. This production was centered almost exclusively in five states: Britain, China, France, Russia, and the United States. In the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) these five countries are designated as “nuclearweapon states” because all five had manufactured and exploded a nuclear weapon prior to January 1, 1967. To this day, they remain the only acknowledged nuclear weapon states. Although other countries possess nuclear weapons, the acknowledged states have gained a special status in international affairs. As part of that status, however, these five states also committed to work towards nuclear disarmament, in particular steps accompanied by the elimination of their own stocks of fissile material for nuclear weapons. At the end of 2014, these five states had military stocks totaling about 238 tonnes of plutonium and 1,330 tonnes of HEU, mostly weapon-grade uranium (WGU is defined as HEU enriched over 90 percent). Table 1 provides a summary of the results. Tables 2 and 3, located at the end of the report, provide official declarations or detailed estimates of each country’s military plutonium and HEU holdings. These tables provide extensive endnotes describing official declarations, other sources, and the derivation of the various estimates. In addition to aggregate totals, tables 2 and 3 provide partial information about the various types of military stocks held by these five countries, including fissile material dedicated to nuclear weapons activities and naval propulsion programs, and declared excess to defense requirements.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Uranium, and Plutonium
Political Geography:
Britain, Russia, China, France, and United States of America

5191. Highly Enriched Uranium Inventories in South Africa

Author:
David Albright
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Science and International Security
Abstract:
South Africa produced highly enriched uranium (HEU) for nuclear weapons at the Y plant at the Pelindaba nuclear center located near Pretoria. This plant, which operated from 1977 until early 1990, was designed to make weapon-grade uranium. However, it experienced operational problems that led to the production of less than expected amounts of weapon-grade uranium and a considerable amount of HEU enriched less than 90 percent. In late 1989, then-President F.W. de Klerk ordered an end to the nuclear weapons program, including the shutdown of the Y Plant, and decided to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Following the dismantlement of its nuclear weapons, South Africa brought the NPT into force in 1991, subjecting its entire inventory of HEU to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards. As part of the IAEA’s effort to verify South Africa’s initial nuclear material declaration, it conducted an unprecedented investigation aimed at determining that South Africa had declared its HEU inventory completely. After a two year investigation into both the production and use of HEU, the IAEA concluded in September 1993 that South Africa had satisfactorily declared its HEU.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Uranium
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

5192. Israel’s Military Plutonium Inventory

Author:
David Albright
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Science and International Security
Abstract:
Israel developed its first nuclear weapon shortly before the 1967 Six Day War, making it the sixth nation to develop nuclear weapons.2 To this day, Israel maintains an ambiguous posture about its nuclear weapons, despite the declassification of formerly secret U.S. government documents which assert the existence of Israeli nuclear weapons. In addition, the revelations of Mordechai Vanunu in 1986 revealed a larger nuclear weapons program than commonly assessed at that time.3 The heart of Israel’s nuclear weapons production complex is the Dimona site near the city of Beersheva. This site contains a number of secret nuclear facilities for the production of plutonium, including a heavy water reactor, a fuel fabrication plant, and a plutonium separation plant, all provided by France in the 1950s and early 1960s. The site also reportedly contains facilities likely involved in tritium extraction and purification (using tritium also produced in the reactor), lithium production, and possibly facilities dedicated to uranium enrichment, at least on a research and development scale.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

5193. Daesh Hype about Stealing Nuclear Weapons

Author:
David Albright and Sarah Burkhard
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Science and International Security
Abstract:
With Daesh entrenched in Syria and Iraq and growing in influence in North Africa and Pakistan, the risk is likely to grow that the terrorist group or one of its allies will seek nuclear weapons. Or at least this is what they want the world to think since their publications imply these intentions. But Daesh’s public claims of ways to accomplish that goal are unfounded and mainly seem intended to simply incite fear. At ISIS, we assess that the risk of Daesh acquiring nuclear weapons is low. However, that characterization needs to be carefully considered. The chance of Daesh acquiring a nuclear weapon, either through theft of a functioning nuclear weapon, or of nuclear explosive material followed by the manufacturing of a crude nuclear explosive, is assessed as low, similar to the risk of a major nuclear reactor accident, such as the Chernobyl and Fukishima disasters. However, although the chance of Daesh stealing a nuclear weapon is low, the consequences would be horrible and extraordinary efforts need to be waged to ensure that the risk becomes even lower. A nuclear explosive going off in a major city would have catastrophic consequences, probably far worse than those of Chernobyl or Fukishima. While the threat of Daesh stealing or otherwise acquiring a nuclear weapon needs to be taken seriously, Daesh writings on the subject should be discounted. In a May 2015 article in the Daesh magazine Dabiq, the British journalist John Cantlie warns of Daesh’s rapid global expansion and its capabilities to launch major terroristic attacks – including acquiring a nuclear weapon and smuggling it into the United States. It is uncertain if Cantlie actually penned the article, titled “The Perfect Storm.” However, the sentiments of the piece likely reflect Daesh ambitions.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Middle East, and North Africa

5194. Losing Control? Sovereignty in the Age of Globalization

Author:
Saskia Sassen
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Columbia University Press
Abstract:
What determines the flow of labor and capital in this new global information economy? Who has the capacity to coordinate this new system, to create some measure of order? What happens to territoriality and sovereignty, two fundamental principles of the modern state? And who gains rights and who loses rights? Losing Control? examines the rise of private transnational legal codes and supranational institutions, such as the World Trade Organization and universal human rights covenants, and shows that though sovereignty remains an important feature of the international system, it is no longer confined to the nation-state. Other actors gain rights and a kind of sovereignty by setting some of the rules that used to be within the exclusive domain of states. Saskia Sassen tracks the emergence and the making of the transformations that mark our world today, among which is the partial denationalizing of national territory. Two arenas in particular stand out in the new spatial and economic order by their capacity to set their own rules: the global capital market and the series of codes and institutions that have mushroomed into an international human rights regime. As Sassen shows, these two quasi-legal realms now have the power and legitimacy to demand action and accountability from national governments, with the ironic twist that both depend upon the state to enforce their goals. From the economic policy shifts forced by the Mexico debt crisis to the recurring battles over immigration and refugees around the world, Losing Control? incisively analyzes the events that have radically altered the landscape of governance in an era of increasing globalization.
Topic:
Debt, Globalization, International Political Economy, Sovereignty, World Trade Organization, Labor Issues, and Governance
Political Geography:
Global Focus
Publication Identifier:
9780231106092
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

5195. Islamic State Primer

Author:
Robert Sedgwick
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
A brief overview and timeline examining the origins and trajectory of the little known terror group that was initially shunned and finally disowned by al-Qaeda as it developed into the world's most feared militant Muslim organization.
Topic:
Islam, Post Colonialism, Terrorism, War, Counterinsurgency, ISIS, and Islamic State
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

5196. From objects of history to agents of change: Retrospective overview of indigenous movements in the Andean Region

Author:
Thea Gelbspan
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
There are times where most organizations dedicated to advancing human rights and sustainable development must face the question: What does positive change look like? How does it happen? And, what do we need to understand in order to support these processes effectively? The case of the indigenous movements of the Andean region provides a compelling response to these questions. This book presents a retrospective overview of the social and political movements of indigenous peoples in Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia between 1980 and 2010. It describes key developments that set the context for the strategies employed by indigenous organizations in the Andean highlands and the western Amazon in order to have a say in decisions that affect their lands and their lives. It also details the ways in which Oxfam America accompanied these movements in the struggle to claim their rights and identifies some key achievements and lessons learned in the course of their long partnership.
Topic:
Development, International Organization, Political Economy, and History
Political Geography:
Latin America

5197. Evaluating Project Aim 2020: Preparing to Transform the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

Author:
Robert Shea
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA)
Abstract:
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has experienced significant changes over the last five years. NRC developed Project Aim 2020 (Project Aim) to improve the agency’s planning and operational functions. Project Aim set out to identify key strategies and recommendations to transform the agency during the next five years to enhance the NRC’s ability to plan and execute its mission in a more effective, efficient, and agile manner. The NRC requested the National Academy of Public Administration (the Academy) to conduct an independent assessment of Project Aim. The Academy’s review of Project Aim consisted of two reports: an evaluation of Project Aim processes; and an assessment of the Project Aim final report. The Academy reports were prepared by a professional Study Team, in consultation with an experienced Focus Group of five Academy Fellows and one non-Fellow. The Study Team and Focus Group utilized their knowledge of strategic planning and organizational change management in their evaluation of the NRC’s efforts, providing the NRC with several pragmatic recommendations as the agency pursues an important organizational transformation.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, United Nations, Military Strategy, Nuclear Power, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5198. Beyond the Wall: Chinese Far Seas Operation

Author:
Peter A. Dutton and Ryan D. Martinson
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:
This volume is the product of a groundbreaking dialogue on sea-lane security held between People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy and U.S. Navy scholars at the Naval War College in August 2013, with additional material from a related conference,"China's Far Seas Operations," hosted by the China Maritime Studies Institute in May 2012. At that time the political climate in China was uncertain, in the shadow of the Bo Xilai crisis and of the impending transition of power between the Hu and Xi regimes; accordingly the PLA Navy, though invited to participate in the "Far Seas" conference, ultimately declined to do so. This was not entirely surprising. Attempts by various agencies of the U.S. Navy up to that time to engage in discussions to advance maritime cooperation between China and the United States had been met with lukewarm responses at best. But at a maritime security dialogue in Dalian in September 2012 Senior Capt. Zhang Junshe of the PLA Navy Research Institute, a key contributor to this volume and to the success of the academic cooperation between our two institutes, approached Peter Dutton to tell him that everything had changed.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Geopolitics, Navy, Oceans and Seas, Seapower, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and People's Republic of China (PRC)
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

5199. The Africa Capacity Report ACR 2015: Capacity Imperatives for Domestic Resource Mobilization in Africa

Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
The Africa Capacity Report (ACR) 2015 sends a very clear message: with official development assistance to Africa diminishing, the continent will have to rely more on mobilizing domestic resources if it is to implement its development agenda. The ACR 2015 shows that this is possible, with a good number of African countries providing practical success stories based on strategies and initiatives that can easily be adapted to other countries. However, the capacity gaps to generate savings and taxes from domestic resources and allocate them to economically and socially productive activities remain glaring.
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, Natural Resources, Capacity, Innovation, and Human Resources
Political Geography:
Africa

5200. Working With a Rising India

Author:
Charles R. Kayne, Joseph S. Nye Jr., and Alyssa Ayres
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
“A rising India offers one of the most substantial opportunities to advance American national interests over the next two decades,” asserts a new Independent Task Force report sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), Working With a Rising India: A Joint Venture for the New Century. Over the past ten years, India, the world's largest democracy, has lifted more than 130 million people out of poverty. The country has rebounded from a recent economic growth slump, surpassing China this year to become the world's fastest-growing major economy. “If India can maintain its current growth rate, let alone attain sustained double digits, it has the potential over the next two to three decades to follow China on the path to becoming another $10 trillion economy,” notes the Task Force. With Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's prioritization of economic growth and foreign policy revitalization, the country now has a window of opportunity to either make the necessary reforms or risk being left behind. “[India] will have to decide whether it wants to become a major part of global trade flows and deeply integrated into global supply chains. Doing so would boost India's efforts to grow its manufacturing sector and its economy; choosing not to will make that ambition harder to achieve.” Because India does not seek an alliance with the United States and closely guards its policy independence, U.S.-India relations will not resemble those Washington has with its conventional allies. For that reason, the Task Force recommends that “U.S. policymakers [should] explicitly emphasize a ‘joint-venture’ model for U.S.-India relations, focused on a slate of shared pursuits on which interests converge—and with clear mechanisms for coordinating and managing the known and expected disagreements.” The bipartisan Task Force is chaired by Charles R. Kaye, co-chief executive officer of the private equity firm Warburg Pincus and former chairman of the U.S.-India Business Council, and Joseph S. Nye Jr., distinguished service professor and former dean of the Harvard Kennedy School. Directed by CFR Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia Alyssa Ayres, the Task Force is composed of sixteen prominent experts from government, academic, nonprofit, and other sectors.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Democracy, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
India, Asia, North America, and United States of America