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2. Mexico’s Forgotten Mayors: The Role of Local Government in Fighting Crime
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Organised crime in Mexico has gone local, as cartels break up into sub-groups battling over smaller patches of turf. At the same time, the federal government has wrested policing away from town halls. A reset is needed to re-empower municipal officials to protect the public.
- Topic:
- Organized Crime, Municipalities, Local Government, and Mayors
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, North America, and Mexico
3. Tunisia’s Challenge: Avoiding Default and Preserving Peace
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 12-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Along with democratic backsliding, Tunisia is facing an economic crunch, magnified by foreign debt it is struggling to repay. Outside actors should keep pressing the government on human rights, while looking for ways – chiefly, a revised IMF loan – to stave off the worst-case scenarios.
- Topic:
- Debt, Human Rights, Economy, IMF, and Democratic Backsliding
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Tunisia
4. Monitoring Report | Public consultation in Albania: The illusion of inclusion
- Author:
- Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
- Abstract:
- The Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM) has released a new report: Public Consultation in Albania: The Illusion of Inclusion. This report presents the results of an in-depth monitoring of 50 laws, public policies, and strategic documents consulted by the central government during the years 2022-2023. The assessment covers 10 key government institutions, evaluating their public consultation processes in terms of: Transparency and accessibility of consultation documents; Effectiveness of the public consultation process; Public accountability during this process; Citizen participation in consultations; Ensuring inclusivity and non-discrimination. In addition to the qualitative analysis of public consultation previously conducted by IDM, this assessment for the first time provides statistical data related to this important governance process. The evaluation system applied in this report provides the opportunity to compare institutions’ performance in the consultation of different acts, in relation to the aforementioned principles. Ultimately, the findings highlight a ‘’long distance’’ between transparency and participation in government consultations. The goal of this study is to contribute to evidence-based advocacy for legal reforms and the improvement of institutional practices, so that public consultations fulfill their core function – citizens’ participation and impact in decision-making.
- Topic:
- Transparency, Inclusion, Monitoring, and Civic Space
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Balkans, and Albania
5. Lift the Sanctions: The Principal Danger in Syria Today is Instability
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The most critical international security goal regarding Syria today is the country’s stabilization – and that requires immediate and substantial aid and sanction relief. The question on which recognition of the new government should most hinge is whether it can achieve sovereign authority in the country and do so without the type of human rights abuses or cross-border militancy that pose a threat to regional peace. Given the urgency of stabilizing the country, the new government provisionally meets this criteria. Should it change course and pose a threat to regional peace, the international community can adjust policy accordingly. Two outstanding challenges to sovereignty and legitimacy are the presence of foreign troops – Israeli, Turkish, and US – and the status of Kurdish areas. Especially acute is the triangular relationship among Damascus, Ankara, and Syria’s Kurdish community, which is among the issues addressed in this viewpoint. As for foreign troops: 15,000-20,000 currently occupy the country. Affirming Syrian sovereignty entails expeditiously withdrawing all those forces not explicitly invited by the new government. A related concern is the remnants of the Islamic State (ISIL) in Syria, including the 40,000+ cadre, family members, and displaced persons interned in camps run by the Kurdish authorities. Going forward, the task of managing and combating IS remnants on Syrian territory should fall to Damascus, acting together with Kurdish and foreign partners as it sees fit. The threat that IS affiliates and aspirants pose to the United States and the broader international community have been and are most effectively addressed through measure of homeland security and law enforcement. Securing the US homeland does not require the ongoing deployment of US troops in Syria, which would inadvertently undermine the legitimacy of the new government.
- Topic:
- International Security, Sanctions, Syrian War, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
6. Shipment of a Controlled Vacuum Furnace to North Korea via Multiple States: An HS Code Case Study
- Author:
- David Albright
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
- Abstract:
- In tracking trade data and trade flows, Harmonized System (HS) codes are routinely used to aid searches for dual-use commodities and to help guide the identification of dual-use items that require a license or greater scrutiny. A recurring concern is shipper falsification of HS codes to evade detection or payment of duties. An illustration of such falsifications is a case we learned about via government sources from around 2022 that involved North Korea and a dual-use vacuum furnace suitable for uranium melting that wound its way from Spain to North Korea, via Mexico, South Africa, and China. Such a furnace is typically controlled under the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) Part 2 list and is banned for export to North Korea under United Security Council resolutions. This type of furnace is a mainstay of a nuclear weapons program, particularly one that uses weapon-grade uranium as the nuclear explosive material, as North Korea is known to do. With North Korea expanding its uranium enrichment program and producing greater quantities of weapon-grade uranium, this new furnace would be especially important.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Trade, and Dual Use Items
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North Korea
7. New Information on Shenyang Machine Tool Company’s Illicit Sales to North Korea and Russia
- Author:
- David Albright and Spencer Faragasso
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
- Abstract:
- Several years ago, the Institute reported about the relatively large, multinational Chinese company Shenyang Machine Tools Company supplying sophisticated computer numerically controlled (CNC) machine tools, equipped with Western controlled software, to North Korea in violation of UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions and a supplier country’s trade control laws that banned re-export of this software. New information details the disingenuous way in which the Chinese government investigated this case, indicating nonetheless inadvertently that North Korea received these machine tools, while also demonstrating China’s utter disregard for enforcing UNSC sanctions or its own or others’ export control laws. This case serves as another of the many cases highlighting China as a long-time irresponsible trading partner that responsible companies should avoid when sensitive dual-use goods are involved, lest they be complicit in outfitting North Korea’s, Iran’s, or Russia’s military programs. Today, responsible suppliers are inadvertently facilitating Russia’s prosecution of an illegal war against Ukraine. Given Shenyang Machine Tools Company’s recent exports of goods to Russia with Harmonized Shipments (HS) codes found on the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) Common High Priority List (CHPL), this company should be considered for sanctions.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, Trade, Illegal Trade, and Shenyang Machine Tool Company
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and North Korea
8. Navigating the Challenges of Environmentalism in an Increasingly Authoritarian Iraq
- Author:
- Taif Alkhudary
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- There has been a marked increase in environmental activism in Iraq in recent years. This shift has taken place in the context of what has often been presented as a new stability, due to the absence of active armed conflict in the country since 2017. However, as “stabilization” efforts give way to “development”, Iraq is also coming to terms with the slow violence of protracted wars,1 an astronomical and rapid rise in oil production, and the impacts of climate change – most visible in the widespread incidences of pollution and public health crises, as well as in the drying up of ancient rivers and lakes and desertification, which is destroying livelihoods and causing mass migration across the country.2 The rise in interest in the environment has also come in the aftermath of the 2019 Tishreen uprising, to which the government and associated militias have responded with a widespread crackdown on freedom of expression and assembly, making any form of activism increasingly dangerous. This study examines how self-identified environmentalists active in Iraq interact with this complex context and the challenges they face. To navigate the increased authoritarianism of the Iraqi state, this research finds that environmentalists tend to adopt small, carefully framed initiatives that are usually presented as supporting the government in solving some of the environmental issues it faces, as opposed to being overtly adversarial. This approach also means that Iraq’s environmental movements lack autonomy, and that certain issues – particularly those that might harm the business interests or standing of the political elite – remain off-limits. As a result, environmental initiatives in Iraq tend to make shallow interventions that do little to address the root causes of environmental degradation or to mitigate the effects of climate change. These dynamics are compounded by the funding structures of donor organizations, who prefer to award grants to small-scale, time-bound projects the outcomes of which can be easily measured. Environmental actors active in Iraq have also begun to form coalitions with the government, the private sector, and other members of civil society, such as political activists. However, this remains in its infancy and is often limited to a small number of individuals acting alone. Coalition building remains a substantial challenge and is often actively blocked by the government, used by corporations for greenwashing, and sees the efforts of environmental activists and organizations coopted by politicians for their own political and financial ends. The findings of the current study corroborate and extend the work of Wiktor-Mach et al. on Kurdistan, especially their characterization of environmental activism in the region as “a specific type of activism that does not question mainstream policies and practices but intends to push for change within existing systems and that has a cooperative character”.3 However, it is also important to note (as will be discussed in greater detail in this paper) that in Federal Iraq, the uptake of such non-confrontational tactics is the result of the increased crackdown on civil society post-Tishreen, which has raised the stakes and dangers of more adversarial work. In addition, while in Kurdistan episodes of mass contention are relatively rare and often focus on issues such as salaries and service provision, in Federal Iraq there has been at least one episode of mass mobilization in response to environmental issues in recent years in the form of the 2018 water protests in Basra.
- Topic:
- Environment, Politics, Authoritarianism, and Activism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
9. Online Narratives and Manipulations: Tunisian and Regional Panorama
- Author:
- Arab Reform Initiative
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- In the wake of the presidential elections of October 2024, the first since the coup d'état in July 2021, Tunisia has seen a resurgence of suspiciously sponsored political content, both pro- and anti-regime, on online social media networks. These included advertisements denouncing the refusal of the president of the electoral body, Farouk Bouasker, to reinstate certain candidates. We also saw “locked” profiles with Egyptian-sounding names reacting with likes or "laugh" emojis to publications on the Facebook page of the Presidency of the Republic of Tunisia. With the proliferation of anti-Saied pages garnering thousands of likes in the space of a few days, pro-regime influencers have multiplied their videos to denounce the spread of these pages and content, calling their audiences to witness the truth of the plot hatched by dark forces, which is the mainstay of the new regime's narrative. It is hard to overlook the importance of Facebook in Tunisia. It remains the most widely used network1 and continues to be a major platform for political life.2 While it has long been the site of disinformation campaigns3 in Tunisia, in recent years the issue has taken on a whole new dimension: the sector has gone from being a local, cottage industry to a veritable industry run by specialized companies operating on an international scale. This industrialization of disinformation goes hand in hand with a phenomenon of opinion manipulation, taking the form of troll profiles dictating the political agenda, or fake profiles creating a false sense of popularity for certain ideas. Both disinformation and manipulation raise questions about the future of democracy, in Tunisia and globally, in a context where for many, these networks continue to represent a faithful reflection of reality. This paper seeks to provide an overview of the dynamics of disinformation from the Tunisian digital space, exploring the different narratives conveyed, forms of manipulation, and the role of social media platforms in their amplification. The paper also shows that certain disinformation narratives circulate between different countries in the region. The aim is to broaden reflection on these forms of manipulation while proposing a regional research and action agenda that can help reduce the impact of these activities, known in the Arab world by the general name of "electronic flies".4
- Topic:
- Elections, Media, Misinformation, and Narrative
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Tunisia
10. The Future of Official Development Assistance: Incremental Improvements or Radical Reform?
- Author:
- Masood Ahmed, Rachael Calleja, and Pierre Jacquet
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development (CGD)
- Abstract:
- Over the last decade, donor country governments have faced new and additional demands for financing international challenges, including providing global public goods (GPGs) and addressing historically high numbers of refugees and humanitarian crises. They have partly done so by re-allocating their official development assistance (ODA) away from its original aim: to support poverty reduction and growth in developing countries. This has led to questions about the integrity and credibility of ODA. These questions are only likely to grow more pertinent in the coming decade because the pressures on ODA—and on public finances more broadly—are here to stay. ODA budgets are being cut in a number of traditional donor countries and what remains is increasingly being deployed to meet emerging needs beyond traditional development and to reflect a more national security perspective on development cooperation. The time is right, therefore, to ask whether the concept and accounting for ODA need to be modified to ensure that the needy and vulnerable it was designed to serve continue to be protected in the face of fiscal constraints and changing geopolitical circumstances. This report, a compendium on the future of ODA, aims to provide fresh thinking and inspire the action needed for ODA to remain relevant and effective. It brings together reflections and proposals from leading experts and practitioners, including the under-secretary-general and executive director of UNOPS to a former DAC chair, to inform policymakers. In this executive summary, we will introduce the key arguments from the compendium contributors. The contributions are organised into four key areas of discussion that reflect the main themes raised in this compendium: the rationale for ODA reform, the political and institutional realities shaping reform, using ODA for climate and leveraging private finance, and forward-looking proposals for reimagining ODA’s role and purpose.
- Topic:
- Development, Finance, Humanitarian Crisis, Donors, and Foreign Assistance
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
11. Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping Europe’s Security Future
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What happens with the war in Ukraine matters beyond its borders, as events there will shape the larger standoff between Russia and the West. The U.S. and European powers can manage the risks of a changing security order with a mix of diplomacy and deterrence.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
12. Finding a Way Out of Festering Conflict in India’s Manipur
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Manipur, a state in north-eastern India, has been beset with intercommunal strife since May 2023. The central government has now taken a bold step to quell the violence. It should keep acting urgently to avert a protracted crisis.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Violence, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, India, and Manipur
13. Locked in Transition: Politics and Violence in Haiti
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Criminal gangs have tightened their grip on much of Port-au-Prince, with the multinational security mission making little headway and transitional authorities mired in internal disputes. The UN Security Council should quickly decide how to respond to Haiti’s request for further assistance in restoring public safety.
- Topic:
- Security, UN Security Council, Organized Crime, Gangs, and Public Safety
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean and Haiti
14. Christian Nationalism Across All 50 States: Insights from PRRI’s 2024 American Values Atlas
- Author:
- PRRI Staff
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
- Abstract:
- In 2024, PRRI released a groundbreaking national survey that provided for the first time the ability to estimate support for Christian nationalism in all 50 states. Building on that work throughout 2024, PRRI interviewed more than 22,000 adults as part of the PRRI American Values Atlas to continue monitoring the spread of support for Christian nationalism and the factors driving such views.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Survey, Partisanship, and Christian Nationalism
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
15. LGBTQ Rights Across All 50 States: Key Insights from PRRI’s 2024 American Values Atlas
- Author:
- PRRI Staff
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
- Abstract:
- In 2024, PRRI interviewed over 22,000 adults as part of the PRRI American Values Atlas to provide a detailed analysis of the demographic, political, and religious characteristics of LGBTQ Americans. The report also examines public attitudes on LGBTQ rights across all 50 states and the District of Columbia, focusing on support for nondiscrimination protections, opposition to religiously based service refusals, and support for same-sex marriage. Additionally, new survey questions explore views on transgender-related policies, including restrictions on gender-affirming care for minors and ID laws requiring birth-assigned sex.
- Topic:
- Public Opinion, Domestic Politics, LGBT+, and Survey
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
16. Practical Guidance for Integrating Climate into WPS National Action Plans
- Author:
- Christina Vetter and Jessica Smith
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
- Abstract:
- In this practical guidance note, the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security explores the capacity for National Action Plans on Women, Peace and Security (WPS NAPs) to be effective tools for national-level implementation of the WPS Agenda that is responsive to climate-related security risks. WPS NAPs have become the primary tool for national-level efforts to implement the WPS Agenda. To remain relevant and effective, NAPs must be responsive to the ever-changing security landscape and emerging threats to peace and security, like climate change. While the share of NAPs that mention climate change has slowly increased, many include just one cursory reference to climate change in the background section that does not comprehensively address the impacts of climate-related security risks across all four pillars of WPS or include specific actions or commitments related to climate in the NAP’s implementation framework. This report presents actionable policy recommendations for WPS NAPs to more meaningfully address climate change and related security risks throughout their design, drafting, and implementation. The report, authored by Christina Vetter and Dr. Jessica Smith, was made possible with support from the Embassy of Denmark in Washington, D.C.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Women, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
17. How Does Disinformation Target and Affect Interethnic Relations in Kosovo?
- Author:
- Ramadan Ilazi, Jeta Loshaj, Tamara Pavlović, and Agnesa Bytyçi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- Disinformation and misinformation are pervasive issues in Kosovo, where they exploit existing societal divisions and low trust in institutional narratives. Participants in focus groups and interviews largely defined misinformation as unintentional inaccuracies or partial truths spread due to misunderstanding or lack of verification, while disinformation was seen as deliberately misleading information designed to create division. Though malinformation was not discussed, the distinction between misinformation and disinformation highlights the deliberate nature of the latter in destabilizing interethnic relations. According to a recent NDI Kosovo survey 67% of Kosovo Serbs believe things are moving in the wrong direction, while 41% of Kosovo Albanians believe the opposite. Kosovo Serbs prioritize unemployment (66%) and interethnic tensions (49%) as their primary issues, while Albanians focus more on unemployment (77%) and corruption (56%). There is a significant disparity in perceptions of interethnic relations, while 65% of Kosovo Serbs expect relations to worsen, 53% of Kosovo Albanians are optimistic about improvement. Media consumption is heavily segmented by ethnicity with 79% of the Kosovo Serbs relying on Serbian TV stations daily, with 66% expressing trust in these outlets. Kosovo Albanian respondents primarily use Kosovo TV stations (86%) and social media (50%) as information sources. Trust in information sources remains low across ethnic groups, with reliance on personal networks (friends and family) common for fact-checking.2 Kosovo Serbian community widely believe in disinformation narratives, such as claims of ethnic cleansing plans and mistreatment by Kosovo Police during incidents like the Banjska terrorist attack. Among Kosovo Albanians, skepticism about these narratives is higher, reflecting ethnic polarization. A significant factor enabling both misinformation and disinformation is the skepticism toward institutional narratives—whether from the government, international organizations, or national media. These institutions are widely viewed as biased or agenda-driven, misaligned with the priorities of local communities. Conversely, reliance on familiar sources, such as ethnically divided local news outlets and word-of-mouth communication, exacerbates separation and distrust. These sources, while perceived as relatable and acting in the community’s best interest, are often biased, incomplete, or inaccurate, further reinforcing community echo chambers. Relations between Kosovar Albanians and Kosovar Serbs are frequently manipulated through disinformation to fuel distrust. Actions by the Kosovo Government impacting the Serbian community—such as institutional closures—are framed in Serbian media as ethnic discrimination or even “ethnic cleansing.” Similarly, uncontextualized or sensationalized reports about past events, like the fabricated claim of Albanian children being drowned by Serbs, continue to inflame ethnic hostility. These narratives exploit the unresolved history, reinforcing grievances that hinder reconciliation efforts. Socio-economic hardships, such as high poverty rates and employment gaps, increase susceptibility to disinformation. According to the 2024 Democracy Plus Vulnerability Index, which saw Kosovo’s vulnerability score rise from 41 to 57, economic instability makes individuals more receptive to emotionally charged misinformation.3 Limited access to quality education weakens critical thinking and media literacy, leaving many unable to identify biased information. The National Democratic Institute in their report on Information Integrity in Kosovo Assessment of the Political Economy of Disinformation (July 2022) found that the education system insufficiently prepares citizens for assessing online disinformation, further enhancing vulnerability. The issue of disinformation is not merely a challenge of modern information ecosystems; it is a deliberate strategy employed by internal and external actors to destabilize communities and undermine democratic governance. As digital platforms expand access to information, they also facilitate the rapid spread of false narratives, making it increasingly difficult for communities to discern fact from fiction. This report addresses these challenges with a focus on their implications for interethnic relations between Kosovo Albanians and Serbs. This report is grounded in qualitative research, incorporating insights from two primary sources: Two focus group discussions were conducted with a total of fifteen participants, comprising a mix of Kosovo Albanians and Kosovo Serbs. These discussions provided a grassroots perspective on how disinformation affects interethnic dynamics, exploring lived experiences, perceptions, and community-level challenges. Additionally, nine in-depth interviews were conducted with a diverse range of stakeholders, including local and international experts, representatives from civil society, and government officials. These interviews offered expert insights into the structural, cultural, and political dimensions of disinformation in Kosovo. The combination of these approaches ensures a nuanced understanding of the issue, capturing both macro-level trends and micro-level experiences. The findings are contextualized within existing literature and complemented by statistical data from surveys and prior studies. The report is structured as follows: A detailed analysis of the main themes and insights that emerged from the focus groups and interviews, highlighting the impact of disinformation on interethnic relations, institutional trust, and reconciliation efforts. The next section explores the structural, cultural, and political factors that make Kosovo particularly susceptible to disinformation. A breakdown of the primary methods and stories used in disinformation campaigns, including the roles of media, political actors, and diaspora communities, is also included. An assessment of how disinformation influences community dynamics, perpetuates stereotypes, and undermines peacebuilding initiatives. Kosovo’s ongoing efforts at normalization of relations with Serbia make the issue of disinformation particularly salient. Disinformation not only perpetuates division but also undermines trust in institutions and mediation efforts to normalize relations between Kosovo and Serbia. By addressing the mechanisms and impacts of disinformation, this report seeks to contribute to a deeper understanding of how to better counter disinformation targeting interethnic relations, in order to foster a cohesive and democratic society. The findings and recommendations presented here are intended to serve as a resource for policymakers, civil society organizations, media practitioners, and international actors working to promote peace and reconciliation in Kosovo. At its core, this report emphasizes the importance of fostering resilience against disinformation where interethnic relations are characterized by trust, cooperation, and mutual respect. The research paper “Understanding How Disinformation Targets and Affects Interethnic Relations in Kosovo” is implemented with the support of the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and United States Agency for International Development (USAID), in Kosovo. The content of this research paper belongs to the Kosovar Center for Security Studies and does not necessarily reflect the position and stances of NDI and USAID.
- Topic:
- Ethnicity, Institutions, Disinformation, Misinformation, Trust, and Civil Peace
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Kosovo
18. Enhancing Local Governance: How the private sector can support data capacity in South Africa’s municipalities
- Author:
- Stuart Morrison and Nnaemeka Ohamadike
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Good Governance Africa (GGA)
- Abstract:
- According to the World Bank’s Statistical Capacity Index1 , South Africa ranks among the highest on the African continent. This strong foundation positions the country at the forefront of Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies, particularly in leveraging government and open-access data to address national and subnational challenges. Cities like Cape Town and eThekwini have established Open Data Portals (ODPs) – online open-access data repositories that enhance transparency, improve service delivery tracking, and help identify pressing socioeconomic and infrastructure challenges. These portals not only benefit municipal decision-making but also provide businesses with valuable datasets to identify investment opportunities, market trends, and areas for social innovation.2 Despite these benefits, South Africa faces challenges in expanding and sustaining ODPs, particularly at the local government level. This presents a unique opportunity for the private sector to support local governments in the development and maintenance of ODPs. Using Cape Town and eThekwini as case studies, this report examines why private sector involvement in OPDs is crucial and how such partnerships can strengthen local governance, drive economic innovation, and foster inclusive urban development.
- Topic:
- Governance, Private Sector, Data, and Fourth Industrial Revolution
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
19. National Dialogues x Transitional Justice
- Author:
- Sylvia Servaes and David Bloomfield
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Berghof Foundation
- Abstract:
- In the aftermath of conflict, National Dialogue and Transitional Justice can both contribute to reconciliation and prevent the recurrence of violence. But what is the nexus between the two? What are key shared characteristics, goals, and complementarities? In this paper, Sylvia Servaes and David Bloomfield explore the interlinkages between National Dialogues and Transitional Justice. They also discuss open questions on how both processes can be further integrated in practice to enhance their relevance and effectiveness. Over the last two decades, National Dialogues have been increasingly recognised as a comprehensive tool for preventing violent conflicts and reaching inclusive political settlements. However, questions remain on how to best integrate certain topics in the design of National Dialogues and how to meaningfully include specific societal groups. The series “National Dialogues at crossroads” aims at addressing this gap. It compiles lessons learned and recommendations on four cross-cutting issues: climate change, digitalisation, protest movements, and Transitional Justice.
- Topic:
- Transitional Justice, Reconciliation, Post-Conflict, and National Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
20. Improving the Efficiency of NRC Power Reactor Licensing: Environmental Reviews
- Author:
- Matt Bowen and Rama T. Ponangi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Achieving net-zero emissions in the United States by mid-century requires the rapid buildout of low-carbon energy infrastructure. One challenge to this rapid buildout is the environmental reviews required by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which are part of federal approval processes for new energy projects. This process has increasingly caused significant delays and added costs, and the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) of 2023 was passed by Congress in part to address these issues through amendments to NEPA that impose timelines on environmental reviews. For nuclear power, a low-carbon energy source that has a role in many US net-zero scenarios, environmental reviews are conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) as part of its reactor licensing process. Because this process has at times been lengthy and costly, Congress passed the 2024 ADVANCE Act in part to require the NRC to implement its responsibilities under NEPA more efficiently. During the 2000s and 2010s, most of the environmental impact statements (EISs) these reviews produced would not have complied with NEPA’s new FRA timeline (two years or fewer) and page limit (150, or in extraordinary cases 300). More recent NRC environmental reviews for test reactor deployments have been somewhat quicker and had shorter review documents, perhaps a recognition by the agency that the efficiency of this process needed improvement. This report, part of a series of publications on nuclear licensing reform at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA, focuses on how the NRC can fulfill the new legal mandates on time and page limits for environmental reviews and in general improve the efficiency of these reviews. The report demonstrates that earlier (1970s–80s) environmental reviews for nuclear power reactors licensed under the 10 CFR 50 licensing pathway took less time and generated shorter review documents than those conducted under 10 CFR 52 during the 2000s and 2010s. The latter reviews—all of which were for large light water reactor projects—also utilized substantial NRC resources, thereby incurring significant costs to the applicants. None of these reviews found that the reactor projects were expected to create what the NRC calls “large adverse” environmental impacts, which could destabilize environmental resources. Although some “moderate adverse” impacts were identified, they typically came from unavoidable elements such as new transmission lines and traffic that would result from any large construction project. And beneficial impacts always came in the form of jobs and taxes. At the very least, these findings raise questions about the allocation of time and resources to various aspects of the NRC’s environmental review.
- Topic:
- Environment, Regulation, Carbon Emissions, Nuclear Energy, and Permitting
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
21. Report: Eight Years On, China’s Repression of the Uyghurs Remains Dire
- Author:
- Rian Thum
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
- Abstract:
- The Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide released a report in January 2025, “Eight Years On, China’s Repression of the Uyghurs Remains Dire: How China’s Policies in the Uyghur Region Have and Have Not Changed.” The report is authored by Rian Thum, Senior Lecturer in East Asian History, at the University of Manchester. The report seeks to improve our collective understanding of China’s ongoing repressive policies in the predominantly Uyghur province of Xinjiang in western China. The Simon-Skjodt Center released a report in 2021 detailing multiple crimes against humanity that the Chinese government had committed against the Uyghur population, a Turkic Muslim minority group, and expressing grave concern that the Chinese government may be committing genocide. Since then, detailed reporting on state policies has decreased as Chinese authorities increasingly restricted access to information. Using recent evidence from Chinese state documents, satellite imagery, and survivor testimony, as well as a synthesis of recent academic publications, the report aims to fill a knowledge gap about the current state of mass atrocities targeting the Uyghur community and other Turkic minorities in the Uyghur region. The report finds that, given the available information, all of the policies that led to accusations of mass atrocities in the Uyghur region continue, and some are expanding. These findings should prompt deeper research into the nature of mass atrocities facing the Uyghur population and spark urgent, effective responses. In particular, the report recommends further research into emerging repressive strategies, including the intense network of electronic and human surveillance, curbs on religious practice, and the destruction of cultural heritage.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Minorities, Repression, and Uyghurs
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Xinjiang
22. Advancing locally led evaluations: Practical insights for humanitarian contexts
- Author:
- Hana Abul Husn and Dorothy Mae Albiento
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
- Abstract:
- Evaluation is widely recognised as a way to learn and to hold humanitarian action to account. Over time, the field of evaluation has evolved because of criticisms of traditional or classic models that are seen as top-down, quantitative and highly technical. Many evaluators are urgently calling for a focus on social justice and equity, as they feel the role and power of local voices in evaluation needs to be re-examined. Alongside humanitarian sector-wide discussions on the need to decolonise and localise aid is a call to re-examine and reframe evaluation practice. Locally led humanitarian action and the growing attention to accountability to populations affected by crisis both support the case that local evaluators are better able to lead community-centred evaluations based on their deeper understanding of local contexts, cultures and values. The overarching objective of this scoping paper is to raise the visibility and accessibility of locally led evaluation among relevant stakeholders in humanitarian contexts. We hope that it can be more easily applied and recognised as having greater value. The paper summarises the opinions and experiences of evaluation stakeholders captured during informal discussions, interviews and scoping events, as well as evidence from relevant literature. We explore what is meant by locally led evaluation and the principles underpinning it, as well as why, how, and by and for whom evaluations are carried out. More specifically, we suggest how evaluation stakeholders can meaningfully engage with and participate in locally led evaluations.
- Topic:
- Development, Humanitarian Aid, Accountability, and Evaluation
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
23. Practical steps to advance locally led evaluation
- Author:
- Hana Abul Husn and Dorothy Mae Albiento
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
- Abstract:
- Stakeholders working to advance a locally led evaluation agenda in humanitarian contexts should consider several enablers (what has worked), barriers (major challenges blocking the way) and practical solutions. In this section, we draw together the reflections from our discussions with evaluation stakeholders to outline practical steps. These steps do not form an exhaustive list of what can be done to advance locally led evaluations, they do not need to be followed in a fixed order, and they might not be applicable in every context. However, they can be used as a starting or continuation point to inspire action. The practical steps are divided into long-term strategies for the overall evaluation function (LTS) and more immediate actions for ongoing or upcoming evaluations. LTS are grouped under three topics: Shaping evaluation culture, policies and strategies; Developing know-how; Establishing and maintaining critical relationships.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Stakeholders, Monitoring, and Evaluation
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
24. Future research and learning: Shaping agendas to inform more people centred humanitarian action
- Author:
- Veronique Barbelet
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
- Abstract:
- In recent years, several critical reform agendas - localisation, accountability to affected populations (AAP) and inclusion – have built momentum at the heart of a push for quality humanitarian action grounded in equity and the experiences of crisis-affected people. Despite this progress, ALNAP ’s recent review of outcomes and practices highlights the inadequacy of current methodologies and a particularly weak evidence base around these reforms (although better for localisation). It revealed that while it is likely good practices do exist in the field, they often have not been fully evidenced, researched or widely disseminated. The review also underlined the need to reflect on and better inform research and learning.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Reform, Accountability, Localization, and Gender Equality
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
25. Connecting not conflating: Opportunities and risks of merging the localisation, AAP and inclusion agendas
- Author:
- Veronique Barbelet
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
- Abstract:
- It is promising that people-centred humanitarian action has become such a key focus of reform for humanitarian actors, including donors and the United Nations. The concept of people-centred approaches, though loosely defined, increasingly appears to serve as a unifying umbrella for various reform agendas—such as localisation, accountability to affected populations (AAP), and inclusion—agendas that have, for the most part, been pursued separately in both policy and practice. While research has called for appropriate consideration of the benefits of bringing these agendas together (Barbelet et al., 2022; Lough et al., 2022), there is a risk that a people-centred focus could conflate the three distinct reform areas, rather than connect them in their synergies.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, Reform, Inclusion, and Localization
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
26. Breaking boundaries: local and national actors’ engagement in the humanitarian–development–peace nexus
- Author:
- Mae Albiento
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
- Abstract:
- There has been increased focus in the international system on the role of local and national actors (LNAs) in the humanitarian–development–peace (HDP) nexus because of their connections to communities and their focus on holistic needs and vulnerabilities (Ministry of Foreign Affairs Denmark et al., 2023). Yet, often, LNAs’ experiences are absent in how the nexus is framed, implemented and evaluated (Morinière and Morrison-Métois, 2023). At the same time, international approaches to the HDP nexus have been criticised as lacking concrete examples of integrated and holistic programming (Morinière and Morrison-Métois, 2023; IASC , 2024). This report brings the voices of LNAs into the HDP nexus discussion. It highlights their perspectives and experiences in designing and implementing programmes that straddle the three systems, drawing on survey data and key informant interviews (KIIs) with LNAs across 22 countries. The report provides key insights to understand those experiences and puts forward recommendations for how the international system can better recognise and support the nexus-style work of LNAs.
- Topic:
- Development, Humanitarian Aid, and Localization
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
27. Explain: Inclusion and inclusive humanitarian action
- Author:
- ALNAP
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
- Abstract:
- This is part of the Explain: Essential briefings for humanitarian decision-makers series. In recent years, the humanitarian sector has increasingly focused on marginalised groups such as women and girls, people with disabilities, and minoritised communities. While this shift is both essential and overdue - given the persistent evidence of people falling through the cracks - translating attention into meaningful action has proven challenging. Implementing inclusive humanitarian action is hindered by the absence of an agreed definition, clear policy commitments and a standardised way to measure progress. Inclusion, at its core, acknowledges that different people are affected by crises in varying and disproportionate ways and that discrimination and marginalisation, based on different identity factors, create barriers to accessing assistance and services. Addressing these challenges requires targeted analysis and actions.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Disability, Accountability, Marginalization, and Inclusion
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
28. Public Administration and Corporate Governance
- Author:
- C. P. Chandrasekhar
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- India International Centre (IIC)
- Abstract:
- I met Shri B. G. Deshmukh twice, once when he was Cabinet Secretary and the second time when he kindly called on me when I was the Cabinet Secretary. On the first occasion, I was the Chairman of the Spices Board in Ernakulam. A Mumbai-based exporter had complained to him that my policies were keeping the cardamom market very high, thus preventing exports. I met the Cabinet Secretary and explained to him that the exporter was a ‘bear’ in his operations and wanted to use government machinery to bring prices down after he had underquoted to importers abroad. He understood immediately. Meanwhile, the Commerce Ministry was upset that the Cabinet Secretary had gone directly to a field officer instead of to the Ministry. However, I came to understand later that this was Shri Deshmukh's style of work. He felt that it would save time and effort to hear directly from the field. This view was reinforced when Shri Deshmukh called on me after I had taken charge as Cabinet Secretary. This visit was important for me as it gave me a few pointers on how I should conduct my work. Shri Deshmukh told me that it was his practice to visit different state headquarters and meet young officers and hear from them. I followed his lead a little differently. I wrote to all Chief Secretaries, asking them to send a list of important issues pending in each state for want of approval from the Government of India. After I received the lists, I held meetings at which the Secretaries and state representatives were present. In this process, many issues were resolved. Another method I followed was to take plane loads of Secretaries to the weaker states to resolve their problems as fast as possible. The Secretaries would sit with their counterparts and try to solve as many problems as feasible at their level. The residual issues were then discussed at a meeting held by me and we would try to settle them or indicate definite time limits by which they would be resolved. We visited Assam, the northeast, Jammu and Kashmir, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand for such meetings. A third method which I initiated—and which continues—was to hold annual meetings of Chief Secretaries. All these ideas came to me after my discussion with Shri Deshmukh and his suggestion that work will proceed apace only if there is close coordination between the Centre and the States—cooperative federalism at the administrative level, in short. I will now deal with the dissimilarities between corporate governance and public administration, and how it would be incorrect to think that wholesale application of corporate governance principles, or lateral entry of corporate employees into government, is the solution to transformation of administration. To some extent, my logic has been explained in a chapter in my book (2022: 204–17).
- Topic:
- Governance, Domestic Politics, and Public Administration
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
29. What is Serbia’s “Project 5000” and why Should we be concerned?
- Author:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the potential consequences and concerns surrounding Serbia’s “Project 5000,” emphasizing why it warrants attention not just from neighboring states in the Western Balkans but also from NATO. Given the geopolitical landscape, any escalation of conflict within this region directly impacts NATO’s strategic interests, considering its significant presence in the Balkans. Moreover, Russia’s overt military backing of Serbia and its advocacy for a militaristic approach towards Kosovo are of particular concern. This stance by Russia can be interpreted as an attempt to embolden Serbia to adopt a military intervention in Kosovo, serving dual purposes for Russia: shifting international focus from the brutal invasion of Ukraine and undermining NATO’s credibility and influence in the region. The unfolding situation underscores a broader strategy by Russia to exploit regional tensions, thereby challenging the Euro-Atlantic integration process. Such maneuvers not only threaten to destabilize the Western Balkans but also aim to fracture European unity and weaken NATO’s strategic coherence, particularly as it pertains to its eastern flank and broader engagement in conflict resolution and peacekeeping efforts.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Geopolitics, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Serbia
30. Reversing the resource curse: Advancing good natural resource governance for inclusive growth and sustainable development in Southern Africa
- Author:
- Sikhululekile Mashingaidze and Stephen Buchanan-Clarke
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Good Governance Africa (GGA)
- Abstract:
- The International Energy Agency’s Medium-Term Gas Outlook in late 2023 notes that “Africa accounted for nearly 40% of new natural gas discoveries globally in the past decade, mainly in Mozambique, Mauritania, Senegal and Tanzania. However, socio-political instability and security issues make Africa a high-risk environment for the gas industry. This results in a gap between the potential and the actual gas production projects under development.” Nonetheless, the Agency forecasts natural gas production growth of 10% (higher than current levels) by 2026. It had only grown by 2.5% from 2011 to 2021, and currently accounts for roughly 6% of global production.1 Asian and Middle Eastern markets’ demand will continue2 while African governments will bet on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). In the longer term, it is critical to phase out fossil fuels due to their exacerbation of global warming and health and environmental risks. Given the imperative for lowercarbon growth trajectories, demand for oil, gas, and coal will likely peak in 2024. Governments and mining investors’ negotiations and contracts should safeguard local populations through ecologically sensitive, responsible mining. Communities’ voices are critical to decision-making from project inception to ensure revenues usher in broad-based growth and increased domestic energy security. In 2022, Good Governance Africa (GGA), with support from the Southern Africa Trust (SAT), explored critical issues surrounding LNG exploration and development in Southern Africa in the context of climate change.3 This intelligence report is a consolidation of key lessons from these LNG projects’ impact on local communities in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado; South Africa’s Eastern Cape, and Zimbabwe’s Cabora Bassa Basin. Together, these three cases illustrate both the promise and perils of LNG mining in Africa.
- Topic:
- Development, Natural Resources, Economic Growth, Sustainability, and Inclusion
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
31. Decentralising the Just Energy Transition: The role of the private sector in supporting municipalities
- Author:
- Mmabatho Mongae and Nnaemeka Ohamadike
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Good Governance Africa (GGA)
- Abstract:
- With nearly 86% of its carbon dioxide (CO2) coming from coal, South Africa is one of the world’s most coaldependent countries.1 Additionally, it produces nearly a quarter of the continent’s total carbon emissions.2 Its economy is highly dependent on agriculture and mineral extraction, which are energy-intensive. Importantly, South Africa is subject to climate variability and change.3 The effects are exacerbated by dysfunctional municipalities’ limited ability to build climate resilience systems and ensure robust disaster risk management. With local government administrative instability, service delivery failures, and financial mismanagement highlighted by Good Governance Africa’s (GGA) Governance Performance Index (GPI), societal stakeholders bear the brunt of dysfunction, particularly amidst escalating climate-induced natural disasters, which further strain government resources. As such, the fight against climate change requires a coordinated response from government, the private sector, and citizens. Presently, citizens do not identify the private sector as a key stakeholder in mitigating climate change. This suggests that the private sector does not have a visible presence in the fight against climate change, thereby presenting the private sector with an opportunity to support the decentralisation of the just energy transition. These efforts can also form part of attempts by the private sector to mainstream Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance (ESG) best practices.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Governance, Economy, Carbon Emissions, and Energy Transition
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
32. What Could Changing Conflict Dynamics Mean for the Risk of Mass Atrocities in Burma
- Author:
- Andrea Gittleman and Denise-Nicole Stone
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
- Abstract:
- In March 2024, the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide hosted a private roundtable discussion on potential conflict scenarios in Burma/Myanmar. The discussion explored plausible trajectories of the conflict over the next six months, and whether these paths may lead to increased risk of mass atrocities for civilians. The convening included researchers, policymakers, and civil society representatives and discussed the following questions: • What are the plausible scenarios in which the conflict could evolve in the coming six months? • What would these changes mean in terms of the mass atrocity risks to civilian populations? • Are there specific regions/areas in Burma where civilians may be at especially high risk? • What particular developments should policymakers monitor? • What potential resiliencies exist to mitigate growing or changing mass atrocity risks, and what strategies should US policymakers use to support them? • What are the policy options available to US policymakers? The discussion took place under the Chatham House rule. This report summarizes key topics from the conversation without attribution.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Atrocities, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Burma, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar
33. Confronting Compassion Fatigue: Understanding the Arc of Public Support for Displaced Populations in Turkey, Colombia, and Europe
- Author:
- Natalia Banulescu-Bogdan, M. Murat Erdoğan, and Lucía Salgado
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
- Abstract:
- Historic levels of global displacement have put intense pressure on systems designed to protect people fleeing conflict, instability, and persecution. Three cases stand out for having triggered a particularly generous response amid enormous upheaval: Turkey's reception of nearly 4 million Syrians since 2011, Colombia's hosting of nearly 3 million Venezuelans who have arrived since 2015, and Europe's welcome of more than 5 million Ukrainians (with nearly 2 million in Poland alone). This report examines the ebb and flow of public support for forced migrants in these three cases. It highlights factors that have contributed to initial widespread solidarity, ways in which support has been sustained over time, and when and why it begins to fade. The report concludes by drawing lessons from these case studies on what policymakers can do to better anticipate and address compassion fatigue. As the study notes, “While compassion is extremely powerful, it is also highly vulnerable to fatigue. In the long term, politicians must anticipate the gradual ebbing of solidarity by putting in place sound policies to meet practical community needs amid large-scale migration.”
- Topic:
- Refugees, Displacement, Integration, and Civic Engagement
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Colombia
34. Expanding Protection Options? Flexible Approaches to Status for Displaced Syrians, Venezuelans, and Ukrainians
- Author:
- Andrew Selee, Susan Fratzke, Samuel Davidoff-Gore, and Luisa Feline Freier
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
- Abstract:
- Faced with displacement crises that have stretched asylum systems to their limits, countries have increasingly begun to use alternatives to traditional protection tools to provide displaced individuals with legal status and access to certain rights and forms of assistance. Often, the status offered is temporary and does not rely on adjudication of individual cases. While such approaches are not completely new, they have gained prominence through national responses to three of the largest displacement crises of the post-World War II era: displacement from Syria, Venezuela, and Ukraine. The principal host governments in these three crises—Turkey, various South American countries, and EU Member States—chose to provide legal status to millions of protection seekers by using existing immigration policies or new temporary statuses, rather than refugee or asylum systems. This report—part of the Beyond Territorial Asylum: Making Protection Work in a Bordered World initiative led by MPI and the Robert Bosch Stiftung—examines each of these three cases, identifying similarities in the approaches taken to offering protection while recognizing the differences between the cases. The study explores the factors underpinning government decisions and their medium- to long-term implications, concluding with thoughts on what can be learned for future international displacement crises.
- Topic:
- Governance, Refugees, Displacement, Asylum, Integration, and Protection
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine, Syria, and Venezuela
35. Leaving No One Behind: Inclusive Fintech for Remittances
- Author:
- Ravenna Shost
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
- Abstract:
- Remittances are an important source of support for migrants’ families, communities, and origin countries. However, the remittance industry has long been dominated by a few players whose services have high transaction costs, blunting the development benefits of these money transfers. By easing access to financial services, mainly via mobile phones, some countries and development actors hope that financial technology (or fintech) will change this status quo. Many believe that such technologies—namely mobile money and cryptocurrencies—hold the potential to boost migrants’ inclusion in financial systems and enhance the development benefits of remittances. Yet, many obstacles remain to widening these digital tools’ reach and usability, and safeguards are needed to protect users against new risks. This report explores the growing use of digital financial services for international remittances, including changes during the pandemic and a look at gendered aspects of these technologies’ impacts. The analysis draws, in part, on insights from expert interviews as well as focus groups conducted in Nigeria and Sri Lanka with users and nonusers of digital remittance services. The report results from a multiyear research partnership between MPI and the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation’s Thematic Section Migration and Forced Displacement to support the development of global solutions for migration-related challenges.
- Topic:
- Development, Migration, Science and Technology, Finance, and Remittances
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
36. Arming Allies and Partners: How Foreign Military Sales Can Change the China Problem
- Author:
- Brennan Devereaux
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- Allies and partners are “a center of gravity” for the DoD National Defense Strategy in the Indo-Pacific.1 But are regional nations building military capacity to help the United States prepare for and deter a potential clash with the People’s Republic of China, or are they solely focused on defending their own territories? Although regional nations’ aims may often overlap, they also diverge in some cases. Partner-capacity development must therefore reflect the distinction between deterrence and territorial defense. The US military has been diligently building relationships and developing partner capacity in the Indo-Pacific region for years, conducting dozens of exercises annually and recently establishing the Joint Pacific Multinational Readiness Center.2 These efforts in the Indo-Pacific region have increased with the US military’s attempt to shift away from the Middle East, and President Joe Biden’s declaration that China is “the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do it.”3 Regardless of efforts in the region, not all relationships with partners are equal; the potential assistance each partner would be willing to provide the US military in a conflict with China will vary for myriad reasons. Although each nation’s support requirements and development goals are distinct, assistance through military sales is a foundational aspect of building capacity, providing allies and partners a venue for acquiring military equipment. The Foreign Military Sales program, often critiqued for its inefficiencies, is being revamped by the US Department of State and Department of Defense.4 Partner nations purchasing US military equipment will remain focused on their own national interests, which for many partners remain security and the defense of sovereign territory. Updates to how the United States approaches military sales can also be tailored to support US military interests more effectively. In other words, US strategic objectives should underpin the prioritization of sales to specific countries, and US efforts should extend beyond financial benefits or the intangibles of building partnerships. To account for the unique and distinct challenges the US military faces in the Indo-Pacific theater, the modernization of Foreign Military Sales should aim to provide the United States with a relative military advantage over China by tailoring the program’s approach to arming allies in a way that complements US military efforts in the region. Modernizing Foreign Military Sales begins by categorizing nations based on their expected roles in a potential clash between the United States and China.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Partnerships, and Arms Sales
- Political Geography:
- China, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
37. Implications for Modern Warfighting Concepts: What the US Army Can Learn from Past Conflicts
- Author:
- Richard D. Butler
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- These four historic vignettes provide context and lessons learned for the US Army as it returns to peer conflict. Although history does not account for the cyber and space domains, the leaders involved in the highlighted conflicts dealt with the reintroduction of maneuver warfare tied to modern fires from land, sea, and air. Peer-level conflict also compelled governments to work intensely in the information space to steel their societies and to influence allies, partners, and adversaries. Using historical reference material and insights from historians and other experts, this essay will help the US Army and the wider community of interest relearn peer rival conflict to support deterrence and prepare for the next large-scale war.
- Topic:
- War, History, Conflict, World War I, Army, Korean War, and Economic Warfare
- Political Geography:
- Philippines, Korea, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
38. A Baseline Assessment of the PLA Army's Border Reinforcement Operations in the Aksai Chin in 2020 and 2021
- Author:
- Dennis J. Blasko
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- This report analyzes the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) border reinforcement operation throughout the Aksai Chin and adjacent areas from summer 2020 to early 2021. It is based largely on analysis of Google Earth imagery and provides a baseline for further analysis of the PLA deployment along the entire Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Aksai Chin. Chinese Army units appear ready to remain in a defensive posture near the LAC the Aksai Chin indefinitely. This effort is the land domain equivalent of Chinese military maritime operations in the South China Sea and air and sea deterrent operations directed toward Taiwan.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Military, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
- Political Geography:
- China, India, Xinjiang, and Aksai Chin
39. War with China: A View from Early 2024
- Author:
- Marco J. Lyons
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- US defense analysts are overdue for a fundamental reassessment of the strategic factors that would shape a future Sino-American war. The United States may lower the overall risk of sparking a war between Washington and Beijing by more formally committing advanced US capabilities in intelligence collection and targeting, long-range fires, and theater air and missile defense to Japan and South Korea and by initiating bilateral planning to introduce such capabilities in Taiwan in the future. The US defense community still lacks a broad and integrated national strategy for successfully managing the rivalry with China. A clear-eyed assessment of a possible United States-China war could lead to a national strategy.
- Topic:
- Security, Intelligence, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, and Strategic Planning
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Taiwan, Asia, United States of America, and South China Sea
40. Emerging Technologies and Terrorism: An American Perspective
- Author:
- Susan Sim, Eric Hartunian, and Paul J. Milas
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- In a world where technology is rapidly advancing and available to the masses, companies and policymakers face a daunting reality—non-state actors are using innovation for sinister purposes. While artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous systems promise enhanced threat detection, terrorist groups are exploiting these tools for recruitment and attacks. The future is concerning as AI becomes more widespread and autonomous systems and augmented reality redefine society. A groundbreaking report is born from a collaboration between NATO COE-DAT and the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. This book unveils a grim forecast that terrorists are poised to exploit advances in artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, augmented reality, biotechnology, and nanotechnology. The line between reality and fiction blurs in the age of rapid technological evolution, urging governments, industries, and academia to unite in crafting ethical frameworks and regulations. As geopolitical tides shift, NATO stresses national responsibility in combating terrorism and advocating for collective strength against the looming specter of technology-driven threats. However, questions linger. Can regulatory frameworks keep pace with technological innovation? Will industry prioritize ethical considerations over profit margins?
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Biosecurity, Artificial Intelligence, Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, and Nanoweaponry
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
41. The Ongoing Genocide in Gaza
- Author:
- John Cherian
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- India International Centre (IIC)
- Abstract:
- There seems to be no end in sight to the genocidal war being waged in the Gaza Strip. As the new year dawned, more than 22,835 Gazans, the majority of them children and women, have been killed by the Israeli Occupation Forces (IOF).1 The true mortality rates are, of course, much higher as at least 7,000 Palestinians remain buried under the rubble.2 In three months of fighting, one out of every 10 persons living in Gaza has been killed. As international humanitarian organisations and local eyewitness accounts have testified, the Gaza civilians were intentionally targeted by the Israeli military. The deaths of civilians and the damage to civilian infrastructure were not due to collateral damage in the fight between Israel and the Palestine militias in Gaza. After the 7 October 2023 Hamas military attack along the highly fortified border with Israel that had resulted in the deaths of 1,200 residents, Israeli leaders and top army generals had publicly vowed to hit the people of Gaza ‘with fire and brimstone’, quoting Old Testament prophets. It was the worst humiliation the Israeli army had suffered in more than 50 years. There were open calls to ‘ethnically cleanse’ Gaza and the rest of the occupied territories so that Israel could realise its long-held dream of an ‘Eretz Israel’ (Land of Israel) extending from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, addressing the Israeli parliament shortly after the bloody onslaught on Gaza began, promised to fulfil ‘the prophecy of Isaiah’. The prophecy, a part of the Bible’s ‘Book of Isaiah’, speaks about the creation of a Greater Israel extending from the Nile River to the Euphrates River. In a later speech, Netanyahu said that Israel was on ‘a holy mission’ in Gaza while invoking another Old Testament story of Amalek. According to the Hebrew Bible, the kingdom of Amalek was the arch-enemy of the Israelites. Amalek was the grandson of Esau, the eldest son of Isaac. Esau is believed to be the father of Edomites, a Semitic tribe often in conflict with the Jews. According to the biblical story, God had ordered his ‘chosen people’, the Israelites, to completely obliterate the Amalekites. No Western leader condemned this blatantly ‘genocidal’ statement by the Israeli Prime Minister. Juan Cole, an American academic and expert on West Asian politics, has charged the Netanyahu government of declaring ‘a holy war of annihilation of civilians in Gaza’.3 The Israeli President, Isaac Herzog, had earlier asserted that there were ‘no innocent civilians’ in Gaza. The Israeli Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant, vowed to ‘eliminate everything’ in Gaza. The Israeli government’s ‘genocidal intent’ has become even more evident after three months of war. The number of people killed in the war on Gaza has exceeded the casualty figures of three previous major Arab–Israeli wars. In 1948, the year Israel was recognised as an independent state, around 15,000 Palestinians were killed as they were forcibly dislocated from their ancestral land. More than 20,000 people were killed when Israel invaded Lebanon to remove the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) under the leadership of Yasser Arafat from the country.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Genocide, Atrocities, Hamas, Benjamin Netanyahu, Armed Conflict, and Healthcare System
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, India, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
42. Digital Governance: Technology Tensions with China and Implications
- Author:
- Alex He and Robert Fay
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- As a superpower that is deeply integrated in global supply chains, China is becoming an economic giant, but its use of technology to capture data using methods that may pose cyber- and national security risks is raising concerns. While some view China’s motivations as an attempt to advance its status from an upper-middle-income economy to a developed economy, others see more nefarious intentions behind its authoritarian, top-down governance model. Further complicating the situation is the growing technology competition between China, the United States and Europe over the control of data, the technologies that use this data and the values upon which they should be used. The Centre for International Governance Innovation’s second annual conference on Digital Governance in China explored these and other issues related to the global implications of China’s governance model in the digital age.
- Topic:
- Development, Science and Technology, Governance, Economy, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
43. How the International Investment Law Regime Undermines Access to Justice for Investment-Affected Stakeholders
- Author:
- Ladan Mehranvar
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- For over a decade now, the international investment law regime, which includes investment treaties and their central pillar, the investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) mechanism, has been facing sustained calls for reform. These have largely centered on the concerns regarding the high costs of ISDS, the restrictions placed by the investment treaty regime on the right—or duty—of states to regulate in the public interest, and the questionable benefits arising from these treaties in the first place. Several states have taken proactive measures: some have revised investment treaty standards to better protect their regulatory powers;1 others have introduced new approaches to investment promotion, protection, and dispute settlement that more closely align with their sustainable development objectives;2 and some states have withdrawn from the investment treaty regime altogether.3 In addition, reforms to the regime are taking place at the multilateral level within the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL),4 the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD),5 the World Trade Organization (WTO),6 and through other regional fora.7 Despite being the subject of extensive and prolonged public debate for several years, these reforms have continued to reinforce the binary structure of the regime. This structure restricts the focus of investment relations solely to investors and host states, disregarding the actual or potential impacts of investment projects, relations, disputes and awards on the rights and interests of other impacted stakeholders. In particular, large-scale, land-based investment projects involve a broad network of people and relations, and often intersect with local communities whose social identity, way of life, and livelihoods are intimately connected to the land and natural resources at stake.8 It is this category of investments, which result in the creation of a new “project” with a large land footprint, that is the topic of this paper. The consequences of these types of investments can be significant, as they often lead to land expropriations, negative human health consequences, water pollution, air contamination, deforestation, or shifts in migration patterns within the area,9 thereby impacting the rights and interests of people in these communities and the environment more broadly. From the perspective of investment-affected communities,10 foreign investments arise out of a partnership between the investor and the state.11 After all, it is the government that facilitates the establishment and development of these very projects. Meanwhile, these impacted people are often not consulted or involved in project establishment or development, and many may not even know that a project has been approved until after it has been approved or once it is operational. According to scholarship in this area,12 these affected individuals and communities often find themselves in a situation where they must assert their rights against the negative impacts of such projects, or resist these projects by mobilizing, protesting, or resorting to legal (and non-legal) measures against the investor and/or the state. This dynamic is frequently reflected in investment disputes, in which foreign investors challenge measures that state agencies have taken in response to, inter alia, local opposition to investments, in an attempt to safeguard their economic interests.13 However, even though the underlying investments, government measures, ISDS disputes, and any resulting awards often implicate local people and communities in profound ways, these stakeholders find it difficult, if not impossible, to assert their rights and have their concerns addressed in investment policy making, in the establishment or continuation of investment projects, and in any ensuing investor-state disputes that may arise under investment treaties (or investment contracts). In fact, the voices of investment-affected people are effectively, and in most cases, actually excluded from the “institutional logic” of the investment treaty regime.14 This is because of the narrow scope of the applicable treaties and the limited consideration given to human rights and domestic legal frameworks in ISDS proceedings. In addition, these communities often encounter legal and practical obstacles when seeking to protect their rights and interests under other instruments and fora, like international human rights law, or domestic and regional judicial systems. This is because victories won by investment-affected communities at these other fora are often pyrrhic since they may ultimately be undermined by the investment treaty regime if or when the investor succeeds in its ISDS claim. It is this local dimension, which has received little attention in public debate and action on reform at the global, regional, and national levels, that is the focus of this paper. We draw on a group of 13 investor-state claims (and two potential claims)15 that relate to the rights and interests of impacted communities and identify ways in which their access to justice is undermined, hampered or denied entirely by the ISDS mechanism.16 Before describing the ways that access to justice is undermined or denied in these ISDS cases, we first define the term “access to justice” below.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Law, Investment, and Stakeholders
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
44. Harms from Concentrated Industries: A Primer
- Author:
- Denise Hearn
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Clashes between dominant firms exercising private power across the economy, and regulatory agencies tasked with preserving democracy have oscillated in ferocity throughout history. Today there is widespread recognition that in many markets, concentrated private economic and political power has yielded a range of anti-democratic, anti-innovation, and inequitable outcomes for consumers, workers, and smaller businesses. A vast literature1 now documents the macroeconomic and social harms from concentrated markets. As a 2019 International Monetary Fund (IMF) report states, “further increases in the market power of already-powerful firms could weaken investment, deter innovation, reduce labor income shares, and make it more difficult for monetary policy to stabilize output.”2 Competition policy, or antitrust, is a subset of a broader anti-monopoly agenda, and an important foundation for the functioning of fair markets. How its laws are crafted, interpreted, and enforced has substantial economic and social effects at local and regional levels, as well as national and international levels. The way that competition policy is written, interpreted, and applied has wider societal impacts beyond competition, including effects on democracy, economic inequality, growth and innovation, racial and gender imbalances, privacy, geopolitical implications and more. Competition policy also has redistributive economic effects between stakeholders, often privileging the largest corporate actors and their shareholders at the expense of other stakeholders.3 As the largest global firms have grown in size and reach, many national jurisdictions have set up competition authorities. In the last four decades, more than 120 legal systems have created competition rules, establishing National Competition Authorities (NCA) across a significant portion of countries.4 However, competition policy includes, but is not limited to, antitrust enforcement. It can also include a broader set of legislative and regulatory reforms which provide market guardrails that protect consumers, workers, independent businesses, and fair market dealing.5 The recently introduced Digital Markets Act in the EU is an example of competition policy using additional regulatory layers to protect the rights of consumers, start ups, and to spur innovation and economic growth. Today, competition policy and antitrust law are experiencing new political potency as various global jurisdictions have strengthened and enhanced their enforcement regimes.6 New market realities like digital market platform gatekeepers, the financialization of firms, the rise of private equity, resurgent labor movements, trade wars and industrial policy, and sustainability challenges, among others, have forced reconsiderations of how to adapt competition policy to meet new 21st century market realities. Competition policy’s narrow focus on consumer welfare (typically defined as low prices)7 over the last 40-50 years saw technological giants ascend to new heights with little to no scrutiny or challenges to mergers. A focus on lowering prices for consumers meant that new assetization strategies – such as monetizing a user’s attention while offering “free” products – went ungoverned by competition regulators. Non-price effects from concentrated markets like: threats to democracy or privacy, and effects on worker’s rights or the environment were mostly ignored. Mergers largely went unchallenged, leading to concentration across many sectors of the economy which is well documented in the US,8 Canada,9 and Europe10 and increasingly so in other jurisdictions. As so-called “superstar firms” have come to dominate national and global economies – in part due to a lack of strong countervailing regulatory structures and antitrust enforcement, and in part due to new network effects or economies of scale and scope in financial, digital, and other markets – many large companies are now akin to para-state institutions, which set the terms and norms of markets, acting as de facto private regulators. Global collective action problems like inequality, climate change, and biodiversity loss, which threaten the ecological and social thresholds upon which open societies are built, have also challenged the status quo of competition policy interpretation and enforcement. This presents a moment of political opportunity for a new vision, which asserts a concerted challenge to the ways in which concentrated corporate power undermines healthy economic, political, and social functioning across a range of industries. An anti-monopoly policy agenda ensures that markets operate on fair and competitive terms, that they reward innovation, create widely shared ownership and prosperity, and allow the best ideas, products, and services to flourish. Markets are public creations, governed by democratically determined rules. Anyone can be an anti-monopolist and participate in the active governance and shaping of markets, and there is now a wide global community of people who identify as such. At the end of this document we list some civil society organizations that are working to foreground anti-monopoly policy approaches and to build communities of practice, for those interested in learning more. Below, some of the harms from market concentration are outlined, as well as industryspecific or thematic considerations in technology, agriculture, and trade.
- Topic:
- Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, Business, and Industry
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
45. Billion-Dollar Exposure: Investor-State Dispute Settlement in Mozambique’s Fossil Fuel Sector
- Author:
- Lea Di Salvatore and Maria Julia Gubeissi
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Mozambique is endowed with extensive untapped natural resources, particularly gas and coal. The country’s gamble on fossil fuel-based economic growth comes with signiicant economic risks and crowds out investments in the country’s enormous renewable energy potential. ◆Mozambique faces a substantial economic risk due to its exposure to investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) claims by foreign investors in its coal, oil, and gas sectors. The investment protections in the country’s international investment agreements and contracts, combined with ISDS, expose Mozambique to multi-billion-dollar financial liabilities. Even conservative estimations show that potential ISDS liabilities from oil and gas projects would cover almost a decade of Mozambique’s government expenditures for SDGs. ◆ Mozambique’s international investment agreements and publicly available oil, gas, and coal contracts allow foreign investors to bypass the national judicial system and bring multi-billion-dollar ISDS claims against Mozambique. Such claims can result in significant costs for the country, and they also have a considerable chilling effect on any new public-interest regulation in areas such as health, environment, community rights or labor protections. ISDS can undermine attempts to adopt meaningul legislation to transition away from fossil fuels and achieve sustainable development goals. This regime can therefore contribute to locking the country into a high-carbon economy. ◆In addition, multiple stabilization clauses in the analyzed contracts lock the operations into specific legal and fiscal regimes for the duration of the contracts. Stabilization clauses protect investments from unexpected regulatory changes or new fiscal rules. If a host state does introduce such changes, stabilization clauses allow investors to demand measures or compensation that would ensure their same profitability absent such changes. These clauses thus exacerbate the limits to – and chilling effect on – states’ public interest regulation. ◆Mozambique and other countries can take actions to remove ISDS from their contracts and treaties, replacing the mechanism with alternative dispute resolution mechanisms. They can also take steps to terminate investment agreements in force. Home countries of Mozambique’s foreign investors have a responsibility to support such action, especially as they, themselves, remove ISDS from their own treaties.
- Topic:
- Natural Resources, Gas, Investment, Fossil Fuels, Coal, and Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mozambique
46. Pakistan’s Evolving Militant Landscape: State Responses and Policy options
- Author:
- Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), Muhammad Amir Rana, and Safdar Sial
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
- Abstract:
- At a time when a major shift is happening in the militant landscape of the country and a political transition is taking place, it is imperative to reevaluate the evolving positions and strategies of not only the militant groups but also the newly formed governments. Against this backdrop, this report seeks to delve into the emerging dynamics of Pakistan's militant landscape and security besides analysing state capacities and responses, along with potential policy shifts post-transition. While much of the research and analyses in Pakistan since Taliban takeover of Kabul has predominantly focused on aspects such as the Taliban regime's governance, Pak-Afghan bilateral affairs, and regional geopolitics, there remains a glaring absence of credible and comprehensive investigations into the broader repercussions of the evolving Afghan scenario on Pakistan's security landscape. Despite periodic headlines on the Pakistani government's negotiations with the proscribed TTP, there has been a dearth of empirical research exploring the overall fallout of Afghanistan's changing dynamics on Pakistan's security. In light of this context, PIPS undertook a firsthand, empirical investigation into the expanding terrorism landscape in the country, scrutinizing the formation of new alliances and networks among terrorist groups, mapping the geographical spread of insecurity and violence, and assessing their ramifications for both domestic and regional security paradigms, among other things. The insights gleaned from this investigation were subsequently utilized to formulate context-specific policy recommendations on how to manage or prevent the negative fallout from evolving Afghanistan situation on Pakistan and the region.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Non State Actors, Minorities, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia
47. Afghan Peace and Reconciliation: Pakistan's Interests and Policy Options 12
- Author:
- Osama Ahmad, Imran Mukhtar, and Hazrat Bilal
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
- Abstract:
- The Pak Institute for Peace Studies held its 12th quarterly consultation on “Afghan peace and reconciliation: Pakistan’s interests and policy options” in Islamabad on March 15, 2024. The consultation focused on two main themes: “Pakistan’s Afghan policy puzzle: challenges and opportunities for the new government” and “The counterterrorism and counter-extremism challenges for the new federal and provincial governments.” Participants included lawmakers from national and provincial assemblies, diplomats, retired miltary officials, academics, journalists, policy analysts, and experts on Afghan affairs. The distinguished speakers talked about the policy challenges confronting the new government. They were particularly skeptical about the new government’s ability to formulate the country’s Afghan policy, and were worried about surging terrorism in the country, India's increasing influence in Afghanistan, province-center worsening relations, and Pakistan’s deteriorating relations with the neighboring countries. In the first session, the discussion revolved around how the newly formed coalition government will address critical issues such as countering terrorism and improving relations with Afghanistan and other neighboring countries. The need for a solution to Balochistan problem was highlighted. Apart from that, various factors leading to worsening relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan were discussed, for instance the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) factor, deportation of Afghan refugees, border insecurity, and cross-border terrorism from Afghanistan. The participants also linked the success of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to peace in the region. Pakistan's failure to extend goodwill into Afghanistan was termed a significant problem. It was argued that Pakistan's forceful expulsion of Afghan refugees significantly eroded Pakistan's good image in Afghanistan. The participants urged the government to take political ownership of foreign and internal policies and strengthen the role of parliament in order to set things right both at home and abroad. However, they lamented the inability of the political government to assert itself, thereby allowing space to non-democratic forces to decide unilaterally on critical matters. In the second session, the consultation focused on the counterterrorism policies in the center and provinces. The prevailing antagonistic relations between Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf’s (PTI) government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and the coalition government in Islamabad were thought to prevent the formation of an effective counterterrorism policy. Speakers also highlighted how India is exploiting the situation by funneling funds to the TPP through Afghanistan, which has led to a significant surge in the terrorist activities in Pakistan. Improving trade relations with Afghanistan also came under the discussion, and it was advised to reduce hurdles in bilateral trade which will benefit not only Afghanistan but Pakistan as well. It was also highlighted that although there is peace in a political sense in Afghanistan, poverty and economic decay have increased during the Taliban government. In the last minutes of the discussion, it was underscored that the Afghan Taliban deliberately designate Pakistan as their enemy and capitalize on this rhetoric to divert the attention of Afghans away from the system they are implementing, which might lead to further destitution.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Bilateral Relations, Taliban, Refugees, Reconciliation, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia
48. Afghan Peace and Reconciliation: Pakistan's Interests and Policy Options 11
- Author:
- Osama Ahmad, Imran Mukhtar, and Hina Saleem
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
- Abstract:
- This report is outcome of the 11th PIPS-led structured consultation out of a series of twelve such events that have been designed to discuss and critically evaluate evolving aspects of Afghan conflict and political reconciliation and suggest policy options and strategies to the governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan. To that end, PIPS has established a network of credible resource persons including former diplomats, academicians, government officials, and representatives of political and religious parties, security and law enforcement agencies, civil society, and media, as well as those living at the border including Afghan refugees. The underlying goal is to support Afghan peace and reconciliation and tackle its trickle-down effect for Pakistan including in terms of militancy and insecurity, among other things.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Refugees, Conflict, and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia
49. Outlook 2030 Brief: The U.S. and International Education
- Author:
- Allan E. Goodman and Mirka Martel
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute of International Education (IIE)
- Abstract:
- For over a century, the United States has been the leading destination for international students. Unlike higher education systems elsewhere, the U.S. maintains a decentralized public and private tertiary education system where international students may apply and enroll at the state, city, and local levels. This annual brief presents key trends in academic mobility to the United States, comparing annual findings to our projections, and suggestions for campus planning to accommodate the anticipated growth in international students.
- Topic:
- Education, Higher Education, Students, and International Exchange
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
50. Spring 2024 Snapshot on International Educational Exchange
- Author:
- Mirka Martel
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute of International Education (IIE)
- Abstract:
- The Spring 2024 Snapshot on International Educational Exchange continues the commitment of the Institute of International Education (IIE) to map the current state of international educational exchange to and from the United States. The report presents data from 662 U.S. higher education institutions in two sections: (1) current trends in international students studying at U.S. institutions in spring 2024 and recruitment patterns for prospective students and (2) the realities of U.S. study abroad ahead of academic year 2024/25.
- Topic:
- Education, Students, International Exchange, and Academic Exchange
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
51. China’s Responsibility, and Ours: The Persecution and Neglect of Stateless North Korean Children
- Author:
- Rob York, Hannah Cole, and Kaylin Kim
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- What happens to the children of North Korean women who are born in China? What happens when they remain in China, or when they escape to other countries? It is believed that as many as 300,000 North Koreans have fled the country—most of them since the famine of the 1990s, and most of them women. To address China’s “bare branches”—its much larger population of young men than young women—North Korean women are often sold to young Chinese men as brides. The children of these brides will be born stateless, lack legal rights, and face the ever-present danger of their mothers’ deportation back to North Korea because they are considered illegal immigrants in China. These unique challenges persist, despite China being a party to the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child, among other international treaties. Even those children that eventually escape to third-party countries are haunted by their status, as their statelessness caused legal hindrances to their ability to settle and, specifically in South Korea, deprives them of government assistance. This study documents the treatment of “stateless” children born to North Korean and Chinese parents. It delineates the factors that contribute to their mistreatment—China’s unwillingness to anger the North Korean government, South Korea’s growing disinterest in North Korean defectors, and a lack of formal networks for North Korean defectors elsewhere. It further finds that, with China openly hostile toward “meddling” in its internal affairs, the most likely source of relief for these children will be a change in attitudes among South Koreans, the United States, and their allies and partners, resulting in conscious effort by their governments and civil societies to help them, both financially and in assisting with their assimilation.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, International Law, Children, and Statelessness
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and North Korea
52. Taiwan Strait’s Echo in Korean Peninsula Security and the US-ROK Alliance
- Author:
- Yerin Yoon
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- In recent years, the geopolitical landscape of East Asia has undergone significant shifts, with the Taiwan Strait emerging as a pivotal point of great power competition and regional instability. This paper delves into the intricate dynamics in this evolving scenario, examining the multifaceted implications of Taiwan contingencies and their ripple effects on the security of the Korean Peninsula and the longstanding US-ROK alliance. This study highlights the need for Korea to build strategic plans for a Taiwan contingency by examining the correlation between plausible scenarios and the security challenges of the Korean Peninsula. This paper explores the broader implications of a Taiwan contingency within the context of great power rivalry and international relations. Moreover, it analyzes specific scenarios related to the Korean Peninsula that could unfold around Taiwan, such as maritime blockades and potential Chinese armed attacks on Taiwanese territory. It then emphasizes the influence of these scenarios on the Korean Peninsula, revealing a complex web of economic security, diplomatic, and military challenges. The article thereafter turns its attention to the US-ROK alliance essential to regional security in East Asia. This analysis examines the strategic ramifications of the relocation of US Forces Korea (USFK) and the possible engagement of the ROK military to assess the potential responses by the US-ROK alliance to the Taiwan crisis. It also highlights how crucial it is to comprehend each of the points of view held by the US and the ROK, underscoring the complex intricacies of the alliance. Finally, the paper proposes strategic policy recommendations to enhance Korea’s role in regional security. This includes strategies for maritime security, military readiness against conventional threats, and the strengthening of trilateral relationships with the US and Japan, providing a proactive roadmap for Korea’s foreign and defense policy.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Geopolitics, Alliance, Strategic Competition, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- Taiwan, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America
53. Gender in Strategic Competition: A Non-Traditional Strategy for Building Resilience in the Indo-Pacific
- Author:
- Charity Borg
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- Today’s era is defined by strategic competition with “autocrats [who] are working overtime to undermine democracy and export a model of governance marked by repression at home and coercion abroad.”[1] The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is the leading autocratic force, operating with both the intent to reshape the democratic rules-based international order and the resources to advance those aims. States interested in upholding the international rules-based order must enhance their ability to withstand PRC coercion and invest in cultivating a values-based security alliance against the spread of authoritarianism. International collaboration on the Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) agenda offers a low-cost, high-return opportunity to bolster national and regional resistance to authoritarian coercion while building a coalition of like-minded allies and partners. Increasing national resilience and building alliances that center on enhancing the security of women is a data-backed approach that ensures elevated state stability, democracy, and economic prosperity while increasing the likelihood of a coalition’s willingness to defend the current international rules-based order from those who seek to dismantle it. An overwhelming body of empirical analysis demonstrates a significant correlation between the security of women and the democratic or authoritarian tendencies of a state. That same analysis also finds that women’s security is a precondition for a state’s level of democracy. Otherwise stated, countries with higher levels of gender equality are more democratic, less corrupt, and more stable. Whereas “states with higher levels of violence against women are less peaceful [internally and] internationally, less compliant with international norms, and less likely to have good relations with neighboring states,” they are also more likely to align with autocratic governance structures.[1] Authoritarian states such as the PRC understand the benefits of empowered societies, which is why their actions on domestic and international fronts actively seek to suppress women. They fear that like-minded allies and partners will successfully improve security for fifty percent of the population and, as a result, will ultimately tip the scales of power and influence to preserve the values-based international order they desire to uproot. Interest and investment in the WPS agenda are growing around the globe, but not fast enough. Thus far, 18 Indo-Pacific states and one regional organization have sought meaningful engagement and integration of the WPS agenda by various means, opening a door for cooperation across the spectrum of civil, diplomatic, and military security cooperation engagements.[2] However, several transformative policy and operational measures must be implemented to achieve the desired end states. To be transformative and enable lasting change in governmental and national behavior, the thoughtful implementation of the WPS agenda at all levels, from national and subnational to the community and household, is required. First, domestic and international policymakers need to clearly define the security of women as a national security imperative. Second, implementing WPS in the defense sector should focus on training defense personnel to apply a gender perspective to enhance mission effectiveness. Last, those advancing WPS must take an inclusive, context-specific, and localized approach to its integration. To defend the current rules-based international order, like-minded countries must accelerate change and follow through by investing in women’s security.
- Topic:
- Security, Investment, Strategic Competition, Resilience, Gender, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Indo-Pacific
54. North Korea is Winning the Information War
- Author:
- Jonathan Corrado, Chelsie Alexandre, and Alexander Tufto
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- The outside world has been presented with two contradictory images of North Korea’s younger generation. In the outside media, youth are portrayed as rebellious and radical, ignoring the Kim regime’s increasingly harsh crackdowns on foreign media and trends, and instead toting the latest South Korean fashion trends and adopting South Korean lingo. Meanwhile, state propaganda pushes the narrative that North Korean youth are extremely devoted to Kim Jong Un and the regime. Both conceptions of North Korea’s younger generation fail to acknowledge a more complex reality. Kim Jong Un understands the importance of winning over the younger generation to ensure his regime’s survival. Since coming into power, Kim has increased the severity of punishments for importing, distributing, and consuming foreign media. This strangled information environment amplifies the efficacy of a youth loyalty campaign designed to bear hug the younger generation. As a consequence, when compared with older cohorts, North Korean youth have a more favorable view of the regime, juche ideology, and Kim Jong Un himself. In short, the campaign is working. A reinvigorated foreign media distribution strategy is needed to break the impasse and win the battle over hearts and minds. Despite the dangers, North Koreans remain highly interested in foreign media. Research shows that those who consume tend to feel more fondly about South Korea and view the North Korean regime critically. Foreign media provides a powerful basis to cross check regime propaganda and can even lay the foundation for a shared understanding of concepts like human rights and civil society. A reinvigorated strategy should focus on content curation and innovative dissemination methods to maximize utility and minimize blowback for end users in North Korea.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Media, Propaganda, and Information Warfare
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North Korea
55. Enhancing the Cooperation between the US and Its Allies in the Mekong Subregion
- Author:
- Sach Nguyen
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- The Mekong subregion is experiencing heightened geopolitical competition between the US and China, representing a clash between the international rules-based order and a China-led order. While the US and its allies advocate for the rules-based order, China’s intentions for its own order in the region are debated. China’s increased presence and influence in the Mekong subregion, particularly through upstream control of the Mekong water, reflect its pursuit of this order. In response, the US and its allies, such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, have strengthened cooperation with one another to promote a rules-based system. Despite existing coordination, there is potential for further collaboration to enhance their role in mainland Southeast Asia. Stability and prosperity in the Mekong subregion are being challenged. Weakening international norms in governing transboundary waters threaten downstream countries’ security and livelihoods, exacerbated by climate change-induced droughts. China’s growing engagement in the region aims to establish its sphere of influence, primarily through economic development projects like dams and railways, raising concerns over environmental impacts and expanding Chinese influence. Additionally, non-traditional security threats such as the COVID-19 pandemic, cyber security, and human trafficking further complicate the region’s situation. The engagement of the US and its allies in the Mekong subregion is multifaceted, driven by various interests but united in countering China’s growing influence. The US, through initiatives like the Lower Mekong Initiative (LMI) and later the Mekong-US Partnership, seeks to maintain its relevance and preeminence in the region. Japan, South Korea, and Australia also engage with the subregion, for economic interests and to counterbalance China. Japan, for instance, aims to establish production bases and balance China’s influence through high-standard infrastructure projects. South Korea focuses on economic development and diversification of trade amid US-China tensions, while Australia prioritizes promoting a rules-based order and addressing non-traditional security threats. Despite differences in approach, the US and its allies collaborate through platforms like the Friends of the Mekong and initiatives such as the Trilateral Partnership for Infrastructure Investment in the Indo-Pacific, aimed at countering China’s Belt and Road Initiative. However, challenges remain in realizing these initiatives, particularly in engaging the private sector and ensuring concrete outcomes amidst competing interests and complex negotiations. Recommendations for enhancing cooperation between the US and its allies in the Mekong subregion include strengthening international norms and rules, expanding economic infrastructure projects, focusing on non-traditional security issues, and fostering track 1.5 and track 2 diplomacy to promote mutual understanding and collaboration among all stakeholders, including governments, academia, businesses, and civil society organizations. These efforts, facilitated by the US and its allies, can contribute to a more stable and prosperous Mekong subregion.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Geopolitics, International Order, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, United States of America, and Mekong River
56. New Caledonia and French Polynesia: New Opportunities Amid Great Power Competition
- Author:
- Raihaamana Tevahitua
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- New Caledonia and French Polynesia, like to other Oceanian nations, are gaining heightened significance within the Indo-Pacific framework. Consequently, both non-sovereign territories have improved leverage to assert their priorities in relation to the central French state. Simultaneously, they are increasingly engaging with foreign partners under the guidance of France. This paper offers recommendations for how these territories can expand their influence in this era of Great Power competition.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Geopolitics, and International Competition
- Political Geography:
- New Caledonia, Indo-Pacific, Oceania, and French Overseas Territories
57. The Chain of Harm: Designing Evidence-based, Locally Led Information Integrity Programming
- Author:
- Lisa Reppell and Brittany Hamzy
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
- Abstract:
- The Chain of Harm is a framework that breaks down the challenges of disinformation, misinformation, and dangerous speech (DMDS) into five interrelated stages (actor, message, mode of dissemination, interpreter, and risk). Each stage describes a discrete intervention point to disrupt the ultimate manifestation of harm. This five-stage approach supports the design of multi-layered programming that more effectively promotes healthy information environments around moments of critical social and civic importance, with particular emphasis on designing programming that is responsive to the different experiences of diverse populations.
- Topic:
- Elections, Cybersecurity, Disinformation, and Misinformation
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
58. Engaging Indigenous Peoples in Elections
- Author:
- Rebecca Aaberg
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
- Abstract:
- About 5 percent of the world’s population identify as Indigenous, including more than 5,000 cultures that speak over 4,000 languages. The first global report on Indigenous Peoples and elections since the adoption of the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, “Engaging Indigenous Peoples in Elections: Identifying International Good Practices through Case Studies in Guatemala, Kenya, and Nepal” is a collaboration of the Endorois Indigenous Women Empowerment Network (EIWEN – Kenya), Fundación Guillermo Toriello (FGT – Guatemala), the National Indigenous Disabled Women Association Nepal (NIDWAN), and the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES). Developed with support from the Swedish International Development Agency (Sida) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the report provides new insights into the political life of Indigenous Peoples globally, grounded in primary source evidence from Guatemala, Kenya, and Nepal, as well as interviews with international experts. A collaboration between IFES and Indigenous Peoples Organizations, the report includes recommendations for duty-bearers such as election management bodies (EMBs) and rights holders. The report contains sections on international human rights frameworks; voter registration; voter education; polling; representation, candidacy, and leadership; and intersectionality and indigeneity. Barriers experienced globally by Indigenous Peoples are provided for each section, for example: Exclusion of traditional and customary Indigenous institutions from state decision-making; The need to travel long distances or through difficult terrain to register; Lack of information about elections in Indigenous languages, including Indigenous sign languages; Polling stations often inaccessible to Indigenous persons with disabilities and lack assistive devices for voting, reducing access to secret balloting; Discrimination against Indigenous candidates; Scant representation of Indigenous Peoples, including Indigenous persons with disabilities, Indigenous women, and young Indigenous persons, in local and national legislative offices.
- Topic:
- Governance, Elections, Indigenous, and Engagement
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Africa, South Asia, Nepal, Central America, and Guatemala
59. Unequal Burdens: Corruption’s Impacts on People with Intersectional Identities in Lebanon
- Author:
- Elizabeth Reiter Dettmer and Jay Feghali
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
- Abstract:
- Lebanon, once celebrated for its cultural vibrancy and economic prosperity, now grapples with embedded corruption and dire prospects for reform. Lebanon’s multiple layers of social, confessional, ideological, economic, and cultural identities are governed by varied laws or rules. This creates space for corruption to combine with discriminatory practices. This assessment, Unequal Burdens: Corruption's Impacts on People with Intersectional Identities in Lebanon, focuses on corruption and its effects to measure how perceptions and experiences differ among marginalized groups and to identify any unique effects that people with intersectional identities encounter, with a focus on perspectives from outside Beirut, including Tripoli, Akkar, Baalbek, Bekaa, and surrounding areas. In 2020, IFES conducted an intersectionality assessment, Identity, and Politics in Lebanon, which found that marginalized groups in Lebanon experience multiple levels of exclusion based on social identities, including gender, disability, age, religion, sexual orientation, and refugee status. Individuals with intersectional identities are even more significantly impacted by the complexity and inherent inequality of Lebanon’s political and social systems. Lebanon has 18 officially recognized religious sects that are governed by 15 personal status laws enforced by religious courts. Social identity and the role of religion in politics both contribute to conflict and lack of consensus. These are compounded by socio-economic factors, including an imbalance in access to services – especially outside the capital, low exposure to economic and educational opportunities, limited inclusion in public service, and youth unemployment. Legal obstacles created by personal status laws and the discriminatory application of other laws seriously hinder the ability of marginalized groups to act as full and equal citizens. In early 2020, the Lebanese government introduced a new anti-corruption law and began work on a new National Anti-Corruption Strategy. Despite the new laws, Transparency International’s 2022 Corruption Perceptions Index placed Lebanon 150th of 180 countries, a decline from its rank of 128th in 2012. IFES’ assessment found that corruption is disproportionately impacting people from marginalized groups. Research identified the following key findings: Corruption on the Community Level; Corruption on the Individual Level; Impact of Corruption and Discrimination on Marginalized Groups; Impacts of Corruption on Civic Participation; Corruption as a Facilitating Factor for Participation in Public Life; Corruption as a Hindering Factor for Participation in Public Life.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Politics, Reform, and Intersectionality
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
60. Understanding and Interrupting Authoritarian Collaboration
- Author:
- Christina Cottiero and Cassandra Emmons
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
- Abstract:
- For many decades, autocrats have been considered less cooperative than democrats in international politics. While researchers endeavored to learn how international democratic practices spread through political, economic, and social networks, little attention was paid to autocratic collaboration tendencies. However, growing bodies of evidence from human rights and democracy support to international security and international development demonstrate that authoritarian regimes are collaborating through formal organizations and informal channels to stabilize or entrench their rule, disrupt democratic civil society, and even extend the reach of repressive institutions beyond state boundaries. Autocrats face common threats, including: pro-democracy groups and dissenters at home; stigmatization and illegitimacy of their authoritarian governance tactics abroad; conditionalities on critically needed aid or loans that prioritize democratic governance structures and policies; and evolving and increased security threats. In response, authoritarian regimes are sharing information; working to legitimate (or de-stigmatize) repressive practices; supporting one another as they weather shocks and crises resulting from international integration (economic or political); and even lending resources for co-opting and managing critical constituencies. These and other tactics allow them to entrench authoritarian practices. To enable the democracy support community to effectively bolster democratic resilience in the face of growing authoritarianism, we must better understand these practices. This paper provides an overview of modern authoritarian collaboration, analyzing its purposes and methods. It goes on to consider implications for international order and suggests that democracy defenders challenge pernicious authoritarian collaboration, for instance by leveraging their own transnational networks to disrupt authoritarian collaboration on surveillance and repression; provide compelling counter-narratives and debunk disinformation through effective civic education campaigns; and international standard setting and rule enforcement that cuts off authoritarian actors from financial and other resources.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Resilience, Collaboration, Autocracy, and Democratic Backsliding
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
61. Trust and Remuneration for Elected Representatives
- Author:
- Cassandra Emmons, Jordan Shipley, and Silja Paasilinna
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
- Abstract:
- The rise of the Aragalaya (“The Struggle” in Sinhala) protest movement in Sri Lanka, triggered by the government’s defaulting on its debts in April 2022, highlighted the public’s belief that some of its elected officials are untrustworthy and corrupt. Demand for reforms is high; a supermajority of survey respondents in Sri Lanka in 2023 agreed that enforcing anti-corruption mechanisms equally across political parties (76 percent) and having an impartial judiciary (79 percent) and strong institutions with politically neutral or independent structures (72 percent) would increase their confidence in elected officials. Similar dissatisfaction with elected representatives and demand for reform and accountability can be observed in many countries that have been reeling from overall dissatisfaction with and, in some places, abandonment of, democracy. In hopes of building more resilient democracies that are bolstered by democratic trust, the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) undertook this research project. It compares the formal and informal remuneration that elected officials receive in Ecuador, Nepal, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka. This comparative research identifies 16 categories of benefits given to and restrictions placed on elected officials. These serve as a menu of options for others. The research also uncovers two ongoing challenges in rebuilding trust in elected officials via remuneration reform: constituents’ perceptions that officials receive more financial compensation than they actually do, and officials’ receipt of informal benefits. This research leads us to make five recommendations to countries considering remuneration reform or reflecting on their current practices: Ensure reasonable remuneration that is responsive to economic and other pressures. Keep the public informed about remuneration practices and, importantly, any changes to them. Require asset and income disclosure to increase transparency around officials’ earnings. Limit benefits extended to officials’ family members and prohibit nepotism. Limit unnecessary international travel and manage perceptions of abuse. Countries that strive to incorporate these reforms into their legal frameworks or common practices may help build a virtuous cycle of remuneration for and earned trust in elected officials. Improved trust may ultimately contribute to stronger, more resilient democracies.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Reform, Elections, Accountability, and Remuneration
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, Sri Lanka, and Global Focus
62. Beyond the EU enlargement paradox
- Author:
- René Cuperus and Saskia Hollander
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- This Clingendael report analyses the so-called ‘EU enlargement paradox’, which refers to the notion that EU enlargement is both inevitable and impossible at the same time. It is inevitable for geostrategic reasons, given Putin’s Russian imperial revisionism. But at the same time, EU enlargement is impossible for political institutional reasons. At the moment, neither the eligible candidate countries, nor the EU at large, nor the electorates in key EU Member States are ‘enlargement fit’. How could the Dutch government deal with this paradox? This paper aims to set the scene for the forthcoming debate in the Netherlands on the future of EU enlargement. To serve as a basis for risk analysis, it provides a systematic overview of various trade-offs on five policy domains: 1) geopolitics, security and defence; 2) rule of law and democracy; 3) economy and budget; 4) migration and free movement of persons; and 5) EU institutional structure. The report draws on findings from the latest Clingendael Barometer survey, which analysed Dutch public opinion towards enlargement along these dimensions.
- Topic:
- Public Opinion, European Union, Regional Integration, Survey, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Netherlands
63. A scramble for legitimacy: Iraq’s political elites since the October 2019 protests
- Author:
- Marsin Alshamary
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Iraqi political elites exhibited a variety of responses to the 2019 October protests, the largest demonstrations in post-2003 Iraq. Muqtada al-Sadr, a cleric-turned politician and leader of the Sadrist movement, vacillated between attempting to co-opt and repressing the protests. Other Shi’a political elites portrayed the predominantly Shi’a protestors as foreign agents and encouraged violent repression. Yet others who urged reform and response went largely unheard. Iraq’s political system emerged largely unscathed from the protests, even though the threat of recurrence inspired the new government to undertake limited service-oriented reforms. However, traditional political elites continue to view reformists, including the politicians that emerged from the protest movement, as illegitimate usurpers of governing power they feel rightly belongs to them.
- Topic:
- Reform, Domestic Politics, Protests, Elites, Muqtada al-Sadr, and Shiite
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
64. Freedom isn’t Free: A cost-benefit analysis of support for Ukraine
- Author:
- Bob Deen and Roman de Baedts
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- More than ten years after the Russian annexation of Crimea and two years after the large-scale invasion, Ukraine is still holding its own against Russia. This is not only due to the courage and efforts of the Ukrainians themselves, but also thanks to the extensive military, economic, and financial support packages from Europe and the US. For 2024, the government had allocated three billion euros for military support to Ukraine in the fight against Russian aggression and also pledged an additional three billion for 2025. Following the UK, France, and Germany, the Netherlands has entered into a ten-year security cooperation agreement with Ukraine to ensure long-term support. The recently released AIV briefing note and a recent parliamentary letter also advocate for sustained support. However, this Western support is no longer a certainty or uncontested. Particularly in the US, but also in some European NATO countries, calls to halt support to Ukraine are slowly gaining more traction. The American support package of sixty billion dollars was stuck in the House of Representatives for months, causing significant difficulties for the Ukrainian armed forces. President Biden has scaled back his rhetoric from “as long as it takes” to “as long as we can”. New commitments for new aid to Ukraine stalled at the end of 2023 (with a nearly ninety percent drop), while promised ammunition quantities fell far short. A warning from French President Macron that a Western military intervention should not be ruled out received little support from his foreign counterparts. Although the issue of Western ‘boots on the ground’ also requires further attention, it is not addressed within this memo, and ‘support’ encompasses both economic and material assistance, but without the deployment of Western troops in Ukraine. Following Putin’s ‘election victory’ in March, the Kremlin escalated its war rhetoric. Government officials are now openly discussing ‘war,’ whereas previously, using that word could land one in prison. This fits into the rhetoric where NATO, rather than Ukraine, is portrayed as the aggressor. Additionally, the Russian Ministry of Defence announced the formation of two new combined arms Army Corps and accelerated the recruitment of new military personnel. Meanwhile, the Russian war industry is gearing up, producing large quantities of ammunition and equipment for the Russian war effort. The extensive import of artillery ammunition from North Korea and drones from Iran, among other capabilities, further complements Russian stocks. The consequences on the battlefield are already noticeable, as seen in the loss of the city of Avdiivka in February, and developments along the front since. Meanwhile, pressure on Ukrainian troops at the front is mounting. In an interview at the end of March, President Zelensky stated that Ukraine will have to cede more land if Western material support continues to be lacking. The renewed Northern front after the second Russian Kharkiv offensive is likely to further stretch Ukrainian defences and resilience in the near future. Despite overwhelming support in the Dutch parliament for continued support for Ukraine, there are nonetheless questions about the duration and scope of future assistance. The question regarding the costs and benefits of providing political, economic, and military support by the Dutch government is extremely relevant in this context. This constitutes more than a simple calculation where profit or loss is expressed in Euros. It also involves security risks and geopolitical and moral costs and benefits that cannot always be quantified in one-dimensional figures. It is therefore essential to adopt a broader understanding of costs and benefits, reasoned from the perspective of Dutch national security interests and the impact of international support on the outcomes of the conflict. An important consideration here is the extent to which support for Ukraine contributes to a military victory, a military loss, or a protracted conflict.
- Topic:
- Armed Conflict, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
65. Exploring the risk of violent extremism along the border between Northern Benin and Nigeria
- Author:
- Kars de Bruijne
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- For over a decade, researchers and politicians feared a link between extremist groups in the Sahel and the Lake Chad Basin. Since 2014, studies have pointed to Benin’s unfortunate potential to serve as a geographical hinge. So far, evidence has been largely absent. While violent extremism in northern Benin is typically regarded as a “spillover” from the Sahel our report “Dangerous Liaisons: Exploring the risk of violent extremism along the border between northern Benin and Nigeria” warns that a large violent extremism problem has emerged in North West Nigeria that now threatens Benin. In the cross-border Borgou region (Benin), a collaboration between Nigerian and Sahelian insurgents is in the making along Benin’s border with Nigeria. These signals are extremely concerning, and action is needed. Nigeria and Benin should cease the d’entente between Talon and Tinubu and intensify cooperation. This should take the form of information exchange, arranging hot-pursuit and consider joint action. But also Western donors and programming need to break stove-piped responses in the Sahel and Lake Chad respectively. The two conflicts appear to merge and a more united and flexible response is needed.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Violent Extremism, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Nigeria, and Benin
66. Israel against Iran: regional conflict scenarios in 2024
- Author:
- Erwin van Veen
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Four scenarios capture the main dynamics of conflict between Israel and the US on the one hand, and Iran and the axis of resistance on the other. They are: ‘a fight for the status quo’, ‘shifting red lines’, ‘limited war’ and ‘total war’. The first two scenarios amount to muddling through under the permanent threat of escalation, which could happen due to unintended yet possibly catastrophic incidents. The more warlike scenarios signify a shift to high-intensity war across large parts, or all, of the region. As 7 October 2023 created tighter linkages between the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories and the regional conflict between Israel/US and Iran, the violent dynamics of either issue can trigger each scenario. Meanwhile, scenario pathways lie so close to each other that tipping points can swiftly transform one scenario into another. Together, the scenarios point to the need to develop conflict prevention measures between Israel, the US and Iran – such as hotlines, protocols that spell out red lines and tolerable action/reaction bandwidths or even demilitarised zones – between now and the US presidential elections in November. The core strategic objectives of the conflict parties suggest that progress is possible. Israel seeks to restore the security of its northern border without an all-out war against Hezbollah or Iran. It also intends to continue occupation. It does not care enough about normalisation with Saudi Arabia to discontinue annexation, which means it will not alter the regional security order to an extent that could truly threaten Iran. Tehran, in turn, seeks good relations with the Persian Gulf states, recognition as a regional power and the isolation of Israel. The US wishes to uphold Israel’s security by reducing the risk of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, but without triggering a region-wide, high-intensity conflict. A precarious balance might be achieved, for example if Israel halts the in-your-face elements of its expanding occupation, a reinforced UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) takes up position on both sides of the Israeli-Lebanese border, US sanction enforcement against Iran is somewhat loosened and the axis of resistance, including Iran, observes a longer-term ceasefire regarding Israel.
- Topic:
- Security, Conflict, Regional Politics, and Axis of Resistance
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
67. UNDP’s stabilization programme in and around Mosul, 2017–2022
- Author:
- Hugo de Vries
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Between 2014 and 2017, the occupation of northwestern Iraq by the Islamic State in the Levant and the military campaign to defeat it left chaos and destruction in its wake. Six million people were displaced and damages ran to an estimated USD 88 billion. At the time, the international community swiftly threw its support behind the Iraqi government to reconstruct the affected areas. This paper tells the story of a major programmatic contribution to the reconstruction effort by assessing the rollout, implementation and impact of UNDP’s USD 1,5 billion USD Funding Facility for Stabilization (FFS) with a focus on Mosul. Tracing the frontline as it advanced, the program worked via the private sector to rebuild thousands of houses, water treatment plants, electrical stations, hospitals, schools and other key infrastructure and provided thousands of temporary jobs to people. To accomplish this, it had to negotiate security arrangements, deal with the limited capacity of the Iraqi state and above all, anticipate corruption by different actors. While the FFS was a programmatic success in terms of its own original objectives, one can also argue that the program did not significantly increase trust in the Iraqi government, positively influence Iraq’s political economy or mitigate local conflict dynamics ‘beyond the numbers’ of its concrete deliverables. As the paper has been written by the FFS’s former program coordinator in Mosul, it provides an insider perspective into the operational dynamics of a major UN program.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Infrastructure, United Nations Development Program (UNDP), and Stabilization
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, United States of America, and Mosul
68. Drivers and strategic puzzles of Saudi modernization
- Author:
- Erwin van Veen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Saudi Arabia’s ‘Vision 2030’ set in motion a large-scale, mainly state-led and top-down modernization agenda to diversify the Saudi economy beyond oil, develop a new national development ethos, reshape Saudi identity and introduce greater lifestyle options while maintaining consolidated rule in the hands of the Al Saud. The envisaged transformation is fully in line with the vested interests of the Saudi monarchy and much of the business elite, as well as some of the country’s younger generations. Vision 2030 builds on earlier change efforts that were only partially successful, but pursues a much broader social agenda in addition to the traditional core economics tenets of prior reform efforts. Another key difference is that its main architect – Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince – has amassed all the essential inputs for transformative change: centralized executive authority, a decent strategy, heaps of money and supportive social constituencies. In the short term, there are no barriers to the realization of Vision 2030 beyond the rapid adjustment that inevitably needs to occur when plans meet reality in a complex environment. However, Vision 2030’s lack of participatory governance modalities, insufficient attention to climate change mitigation and absence of a balanced strategy to promote regional stability represent serious medium-term challenges. Success is likely to require recalibrating these issues in ‘Vision 2040’, or sooner.
- Topic:
- Development, Governance, Economy, and Modernization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Saudi Arabia
69. Port politics: Strategic autonomy and European ports
- Author:
- Xiaoxue Martin and Frans-Paul van der Putten
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- European seaports and related logistics are a key part of international trade and logistics. In recent years, foreign involvement by third countries has gained greater significance in this sector, especially where China is concerned. The recent calls for a European port strategy in the European Parliament underline this. Individual Member States and the EU as a whole can actively influence future scenarios by managing the degree of foreign involvement in European seaports and logistics, with special attention for China’s influence. However, a lack of EU cooperation concerning foreign involvement negatively impacts the EU’s strategic autonomy. This limits control over future scenarios. The aim of this report is therefore to conceptualise an EU-wide policy framework for strengthening strategic autonomy in the domain of seaports and related logistics sector systems. China serves as a case study.
- Topic:
- European Union, Logistics, Strategic Autonomy, and Ports
- Political Geography:
- China and Europe
70. A Renewed Philippine-United States Alliance
- Author:
- Julio S. Amador III and Lisa Marie Palma
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The Biden administration should keep in mind that domestic politics bears considerable implications for the alliance. Regarding economic relations, the United States needs to remain committed to policies that diversify supply chains and create opportunities for business and investment projects in the Philippines.
- Topic:
- Economics, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Investment
- Political Geography:
- Philippines, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
71. Australia and the Resilient Pacific Islands
- Author:
- Andrea Gleason
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Australia is committed to delivering at least AUD 700 million in climate finance to the Pacific and investing in climate-resilient infrastructure across the region, including through the Australian Infrastructure Financing Facility for the Pacific.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Infrastructure, Climate Finance, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Pacific Islands
72. Between a Rock and a Hard Place: ASEAN Amid Sino-US Competition
- Author:
- William Choong
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- An area in which the United States has gained traction—at China’s expense—are emerging formal and ad hoc plurilateral collaborations between Quad members and Southeast Asian countries.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Multilateralism, Strategic Competition, ASEAN, and Quad Alliance
- Political Geography:
- China, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
73. Indian Ocean Security Means More Will Be Asked of US Allies
- Author:
- Benjamin Reilly and Peter Dean
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Ongoing disruptions in the Gulf of Aden and the vulnerability of other key Indian Ocean bottlenecks in the Straits of Hormuz or Malacca... [H]ighlight an inconvenient truth: the country with the most to lose from a disruption of the Indian Ocean today is China...
- Topic:
- Security, Maritime Commerce, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, India, Australia, West Asia, United States of America, and Indian Ocean
74. Enhancing the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific through Sub-Regional Initiatives: The Case of the BIMP-EAGA Initiative
- Author:
- Hafiizh Hashim
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Dr. Hafiizh Hashim, Head Consultant at Sociable & Co. and Assistant Lecturer Universiti at Brunei Darussalam, explains that "[g]reater US engagement in the BIMP-EAGA [a subregional grouping encompassing states and subnational jurisdiction in eastern Southeast Asia] could deepen US-ASEAN relations" and "find convergence between US and ASEAN Indo-Pacific frameworks."
- Topic:
- International Relations, Climate Change, Economics, Environment, ASEAN, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
75. Pacific Perspectives on the US Indo-Pacific Strategy
- Author:
- Joe-Silem Enlet
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Mr. Joe-Silem Enlet, former Consul General for the Federated States of Micronesia and current PhD Student at the University of Rhode Island, explains that "[t]he Pacific and its ocean people’s heritage need to be featured more prominently in the US Indo-Pacific strategy."
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Economics, and Heritage
- Political Geography:
- United States of America, Indo-Pacific, and Micronesia
76. From Bandung to Hindutva: How the Palestine Question Shows India’s Alternative Foreign Policy Futures
- Author:
- Arjun Shankar
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Dr. Arjun Shankar, Assistant Professor of Culture and Politics in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, explains how India's ethnonational discourse and abiding commitment to Global South solidarity are both products of the country's anti-colonial struggle but are now clashing in India's approach to the Palestine question.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Solidarity, Global South, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, Ethnonationalism, and Hindutva
- Political Geography:
- India, Israel, and Palestine
77. Growing Foreign and Security Policy Challenges Face India’s Re-elected Modi Government
- Author:
- Frank O'Donnell
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Dr. Frank O'Donnell, Adjunct Fellow with the East-West Center in Washington and Nonresident Fellow in the Stimson Center South Asia Program, asserts that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces growing challenges in his third term, including Chinese hostilities in the Himalayas, pursuing more peaceful relations with Pakistan, and navigating turbulence in US-India affairs.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Elections, and Narendra Modi
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, India, and United States of America
78. Testing Taiwan’s Democracy
- Author:
- Dimitar Gueorguiev
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Dr. Dimitar D. Gueorguiev, an associate professor of political science at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs and director of Chinese studies at Syracuse University, asserts that “Taiwan’s new government faces rough seas ahead” and with the loss of the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) legislative majority, new President Lai Ching-te “needs to seek compromise with a divided government...”
- Topic:
- Government, Elections, Democracy, and Lai Ching-te
- Political Geography:
- Taiwan and Asia
79. The Role of the United States in Just Energy Transition Partnerships in Indonesia and Vietnam
- Author:
- Melinda Martinus
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Melinda Martinus, Lead Researcher focusing on Climate Change in Southeast Asia and sustainable development at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, explores the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) for Indonesia and Vietnam against the backdrop of the upcoming US presidential election.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Partnerships, Climate Finance, Energy, Climate Justice, and Energy Transition
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, Vietnam, Southeast Asia, and United States of America
80. Japan, the Philippines, and the United States: A New Era of Partnership through Trilateral Defense and Security Cooperation
- Author:
- Miyoko Taniguchi
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Dr. Miyoko Taniguchi, Professor of International Relations and Peace Studies at Miyazaki Municipal University in Japan, explains that the “strengthening of trilateral cooperation [between the United States, Japan, and the Philippines is a significant strategic move to institutionalize the deterrence and response capabilities of US allies and partners, especially to protect the territorial sovereignty in the South China Sea and East China Sea.”
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Sovereignty, Partnerships, Deterrence, and Defense Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Philippines, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
81. Strategic Realignments: Assessing the Impact of Taiwan's 2024 Elections on US-China Relations and Indo-Pacific Stability
- Author:
- Yih-Jye Hwang
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Dr. Yih-Jye Hwang, an Assistant Professor of International Relations at Leiden University, details the transformation of US Asia-Pacific policy from strategic ambiguity to a more explicit stance, the Democratic Progressive Party’s Pro-US Stance, and the 'doubt America' theory prevalent among Taiwanese opposition parties.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Elections, Economy, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America
82. Election 2024 in Pakistan - A Catalyst for Strengthening Global Health Security Partnerships
- Author:
- Saeed Ahmad
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Dr. Saeed Ahmad, a Public Health Coordinator with Pakistan’s Ministry of National Health Services, "explores the impact of Pakistan’s 2024 electoral outcomes on health policy formulation, resource allocation, and continued partnership and engagement with the United States on global health security and sustainable development."
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Elections, Partnerships, and Public Health
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, and United States of America
83. The US Should Enhance Economic Engagement with Taiwan
- Author:
- Min-Hua Chiang
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Dr. Min-Hua Chiang, East-West Center Adjunct Fellow and a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the University of Nottingham’s Taiwan Research Hub, explains "Further strengthening Taiwan’s economy will make it more capable of bearing the financial burden of defending the island against a Chinese invasion…," and this imperative is compounded as Taiwan is “a critical player in America’s competition with China in the global semiconductor industry.”
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Science and Technology, Leadership, Regional Economy, and Economic Engagement
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America
84. Enhancing Military Diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific: A US Foreign Area Officer’s Perspective
- Author:
- Matthew House
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Lt. Col. Matthew House, US Army Foreign Area Officer and EWC Adjunct Fellow, underscores “the pivotal role of military diplomacy in orchestrating significant global events...” and highlights “the invaluable expertise of [Foreign Area Officers] in managing complex international relations."
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Education, Politics, and Military Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- North Korea, Vietnam, Southeast Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
85. The US-India Clean Energy Partnership and Quad Provide Overlapping Pathways to Produce Clean Energy
- Author:
- Nischal Dhungel and Sethuram Senthil Kumar
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Mr. Nischal Dhungel and Mr. Sethuram Senthil Kumar, Consultant at the World Bank Group and Energy Engineer at both TRC Companies, Inc. and MCFA, respectfully, explain that "Robust partnerships with the United States, strategic cooperation within the Quad framework, and collective efforts across the Indo-Pacific region drive India's transformation in the energy sector."
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Governance, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, India, Nepal, North America, and United States of America
86. Japan's Arctic Policy: Current Status and Challenges
- Author:
- Sakiko Hataya
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Ms. Sakiko Hataya, Research Fellow at the Ocean Policy Research Institute of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation in Japan, highlights the increasing importance of the Arctic in Japan's ocean policy and touches upon how Russia's invasion of Ukraine impacts the execution of Japan's Arctic policy.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Science and Technology, Sustainability, and Collaboration
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Japan, Asia, and Arctic
87. US Perspectives on Sino-Russian Cooperation in the Arctic and Roles for Partners
- Author:
- Rebecca Pincus
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Dr. Rebecca Pincus, Director of the Polar Institute at the Wilson Center, explains that "The development of Russia’s Arctic hydrocarbons is dependent on foreign investment and advanced technologies; as the West has withdrawn from Russia, China is an important, if imperfect, substitute..."
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, and Hydrocarbons
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Arctic, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
88. Sino-Russia Arctic Relations: The View from Singapore
- Author:
- Hema Nadarajah
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Dr. Hema Nadarajah, Program Manager for Southeast Asia at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, explains that states seeking to deepen their engagement in the Arctic, such as Singapore, may find themselves trying to balance tensions, especially in the wake of Sino-Russian cooperation in the region and US-China strategic competition.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, and Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Asia, and Arctic
89. Arctic Geopolitics and Governance: An Indian Perspective
- Author:
- Anurag Bisen
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Capt. (IND) Anurag Bisen (Retd.), Senior Fellow at the Vivekananda International Foundation, explains that "India needs to step up its engagement to secure its increasing national interest in the Arctic" and "must also use its equities with all the Arctic states to facilitate collaboration, ensuring access to infrastructure, research areas, and data."
- Topic:
- International Relations, Climate Change, Governance, Geopolitics, Multipolarity, and Strategic Engagement
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, South Asia, India, North America, and Arctic
90. South Korean Perspectives on China-Russia Collaboration in the Arctic
- Author:
- Young Kil Park
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Dr. Young Kil Park, Research Fellow at Korea Maritime Institute, explains that "While the immediate impact of China-Russia collaboration in the Arctic on South Korea is limited, it remains wary of the long-term implications for its economic and security interests."
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Collaboration
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Arctic
91. How Will the Prabowo Administration Shape Indonesia’s Foreign Policy as a Middle Power?
- Author:
- Calvin Khoe
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Mr. Calvin Khoe, Lead Analyst at FPCI Research & Analysis, explains that "Indonesia enjoys several comparative advantages that empower it as an activist nation and differentiate it as a middle power," and wagers that "President Prabowo will strive to make Indonesia an even more influential middle power."
- Topic:
- International Relations, Strategic Autonomy, Middle Power, and Strategic Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Southeast Asia
92. United States, UNESCO, and International Relations through Cultural Heritage
- Author:
- Neel Kamal Chapagain
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Dr. Neel Kamal Chapagain, Professor at Ahmedabad University's Centre for Heritage Management, explains that "[c]ultural heritage is becoming a more prominent vehicle for building international ties" and "support for or opposition to global cultural heritage campaigns, like UNESCO, have been used [in US presidential campaigns] to make political statements."
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Culture, Heritage, UNESCO, and Emerging Powers
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America
93. Rise of Economic Nationalism in Emerging Economies and the Influence of Elections
- Author:
- Michio Ueda
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Mr. Michio Ueda, President of Geopolitics & Strategy and Visiting Lecturer University of Tokyo, examines "the intersection between economic nationalism and recent elections in Indonesia and India" and finds that "industrial policy is not a significant point of political contention" and elections "serve as an opportunity to gain legitimacy for policies supporting economic nationalism."
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, Nationalism, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- China, Indonesia, India, Asia, and United States of America
94. US-Japan Alliance Resiliency Amid Risks
- Author:
- Daniel Aldrich and Lei Nishiuwatoko
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Dr. Daniel Aldrich and Ms. Lei Nishiuwatoko, Professor of Political Science at Northeastern University and M.S. Candidate at Georgetown's School of Foreign Service, respectfully, explain that "[t]he United States and Japan are uniquely positioned to mitigate the existential risk of climate change" and explore how "further policy alignment on the possession and stockpile of nuclear materials... would further strengthen the alliance."
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Bilateral Relations, Nonproliferation, Alliance, Resilience, and Nuclear Energy
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, and United States of America
95. Understated and Sometimes Contentious: A Perspective on the US-Australia Alliance in Southeast Asia
- Author:
- Ja Ian Chong
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Dr. Ja Ian Chong, Associate Professor of Political Science at National University of Singapore, explains that "[the] Australian-United States alliance is probably one of the most under-appreciated and misunderstood security partnerships in Southeast Asia," and it "helps undergird the status quo in Southeast Asia."
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Alliance, and Strategic Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Australia, Southeast Asia, and United States of America
96. Strategic Partners or Fickle Friends? Indonesia’s Perceptions of the US-Australia Defense and Security Relationship
- Author:
- Lina Alexandra and Pieter Pandie
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Dr. Lina A. Alexndra and Mr. Pieter Pandie, Head of the International Relations Department and Researcher at Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Jakarta, respectfully, explain that "while [Indonesia] certainly considers Australia and the United States as key partners in navigating the region's security landscape... Indonesia has desired a more independent Australia, given its proximity"
- Topic:
- Security, Regional Security, Perception, Defense Cooperation, and Strategic Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, Australia, Southeast Asia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
97. Vietnamese Perspective on the Significance of the US-Australia Alliance in Southeast Asian Security
- Author:
- Bich T. Tran
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Dr. Bich Tran, Postdoctoral Fellow at National University of Singapore and Adjunct Fellow Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., examines the implications of the alliance for Southeast Asian security from the perspective of Vietnam, a country that has long pursued a policy of non-alignment while actively engaging with both the United States and Australia.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, Regional Security, and Strategic Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Vietnam, Australia, Southeast Asia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
98. The Australia-US Alliance from a Thai Perspective: An Unbreakable or Unpinnable Partnership?
- Author:
- Jittipat Poonkham
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Dr. Jittipat Poonkham, Associate Professor of International Relations at Thammasat University, argues that "AUKUS, as well as the Australia-US alliance, seems to be an “unpinnable” alliance in the sense that it cannot be firmly pinned down in Thailand’s strategic mindset."
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Partnerships, Alliance, and AUKUS
- Political Geography:
- Australia, Thailand, Southeast Asia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
99. Where are the Growth Potentials in CESEE? An Illustration of Sectors and Products Using the Product Space
- Author:
- Francesca Guadagno, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, and Robert Stehrer
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates the sectoral and export structures as well as the product spaces of 11 economies in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE). We first employ an analysis based on revealed comparative advantages (RCAs) to identify promising sectors for future growth and then combine this analysis with a product space approach to detect related and complex products that could help these economies diversify and upgrade. The RCA analysis shows that the CESEE countries still hold a comparative advantage in manufacturing, although a slightly negative trend emerged between 2013 and 2020. Meanwhile, some services – particularly computer programming, consultancy and information service activities – have emerged as the most successful sectors to date. The product space analysis indicates that for the majority of the CESEE economies, it is possible to identify relatively complex products that could be easily targeted to spur upgrading. We also find that while we run the analysis separately for each of the 11 CESEE countries, the identified opportunities are often the same. While this is intuitively explained by the similar specialisations of these 11 countries, from a policy perspective this finding implies that each country has to deploy a battery of indicators to identify profitable and realistic niches within these broadly defined product categories.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- Europe
100. Still in the Fast Lane? How can EU-CEE Get its Groove Back?
- Author:
- Tomáš Slačík
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- This report revisits the growth and convergence performance of the 11 EU member states in Central, East and Southeast Europe (EU-CEE11) over the past few decades, examining the underlying drivers, structural changes and the outlook. The review aims to assess the sustainability of the current economic model and identify areas for economic policy to focus on boosting growth. The findings show that convergence has significantly slowed since the global financial crisis, with value added growth declining in virtually all industries. This slowdown is attributed to structural rather than cyclical factors, with total factor productivity (TFP) being the main driver as well as the primary culprit behind the deceleration. Since medium-term growth projections for the region are not optimistic, the EU-CEE11 countries must make substantial efforts to improve their economic models. Key areas to focus on include energy, underutilised labour and improving human capital. While still very competitive, the manufacturing sector needs to move towards higher value added activities.
- Topic:
- European Union, Economic Growth, Trade, Regional Economy, and Convergence
- Political Geography:
- Europe