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1. Far-Right Violence and the American Midterm Elections: Early Warning Signs to Monitor Ahead of the Vote

Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
A narrow focus on aggregate trends in political violence can obscure important new patterns and warning signs. While the total number of political violence events in the United States declined in 2021 after far-right groups stormed the Capitol at the start of the year, trends since then reflect an ongoing evolution in anti-democratic mobilization on the right — not the aftermath of its high-water mark. Many of the same far-right groups and networks involved in the Capitol attack have adapted their activity to fit the new environment. These adaptations have manifested in multiple ways: the landscape of actors has become more defined; demonstration engagement has shifted, with a focus on protests that allow for the co-option of new supporters; some actors, like the Proud Boys, have increased their use of violence; armed protests have proliferated, particularly at legislative facilities; contentious counter-demonstration trends have intensified; offline propaganda and vigilantism is on the rise, especially motivated by white supremacy and white nationalism; and preparatory actions have surged, including recruitment drives and training exercises. ACLED data indicate that political violence in the United States, and specifically violence involving far-right militias and militant social movements, typically manifests in peaks and lulls. Against this backdrop, the recent decline in aggregate events should not be taken as a sign that the threat of violence has abated. On the contrary, current trends indicate that it may only represent a relative calm before the next storm. The United States faces many latent risks, and a wide range of factors that can contribute to and elevate these risks — from the ascendance of extremist protest drivers like white supremacy, to the increased rate of armed demonstrations at statehouses, to a rise in militia training and recruitment campaigns — are intensifying. Monitoring these factors, and these groups, will be critical for detecting emerging threats, particularly in the lead-up to potential flashpoint events, such as this year’s midterm elections.
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, and Far Right
Political Geography:
United States

2. Amidst Anti-COVID Protests, Far-Right Extremists Are Using a New Symbol: An All-Black American Flag

Author:
Grace Vaule
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
TRAC: Terrorism Research & Analysis Consortium
Abstract:
Currently, amidst a backdrop of COVID-related vaccine and mask mandates, far-right extremists in the United States are using another symbol: the all-black American flag.
Topic:
Terrorism, Violent Extremism, COVID-19, Political Extremism, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
United States

3. Framing Violence: US and Chinese State-Funded News Outlets during the Hong Kong Protests

Author:
Hanmin Kim
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
State-funded news media outlets and the ways in which they convey the messages of government and government-affiliated officials represent an essential but under-emphasized area of study in the realm of international diplomacy. Through a case study of the Hong Kong protests of 2019, this paper draws on theories from journalism and public diplomacy to analyze articles by state-funded media covering the unrest. This paper argues that the state-funded news outlets of the US and China used the same frame—violence and conflict—but approached the Hong Kong protests differently. Using this frame, state media outlets made themselves channels for government officials during the US-China rivalry, but made different arguments regarding the violence that occurred there. While US government-funded media focused on the violence of the Hong Kong Police Force as a danger to the territory’s democracy, Chinese state media emphasized the violence of the Hong Kong protestors as a danger to national security.
Topic:
Government, Communications, Media, Protests, and Journalism
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Hong Kong

4. Mental Health Conditions and Substance Use: Comparing U.S. Needs and Treatment Capacity with Those in Other High-Income Countries

Author:
Melinda K. Abrams, Reginald D. Williams II, Katharine Fields, and Roosa Tikkanen
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:
About one-quarter of U.S. adults report having a mental health diagnosis such as anxiety or depression or experiencing emotional distress. This is one of the highest rates among 11 high-income countries. While U.S. adults are among the most willing to seek professional help for emotional distress, they are among the most likely to report access or affordability issues. Emotional distress is associated with social and economic needs in all countries. Nearly half of U.S. adults who experience emotional distress report such worries, a higher share than seen in other countries. The United States has some of the worst mental health–related outcomes, including the highest suicide rate and second-highest drug-related death rate. The U.S. has a relatively low supply of mental health workers, particularly psychologists and psychiatrists. Just one-third of U.S. primary care practices have mental health professionals on their team, compared to more than 90 percent in the Netherlands and Sweden.
Topic:
Health, Health Care Policy, Mental Health, Drugs, and Substance Abuse
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Global Focus

5. A Movement Between Parliamentary Politics and the Pathway to Violence and Terrorism: Germany’s Radical Right Narratives and Counter-narratives

Author:
Maximilian Kreter
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hedayah
Abstract:
This country report, written by Maximilian Kreter, is one of the outputs of the CARR-Hedayah Radical Right Counter Narratives Project, a year-long project under the STRIVE Global Program at Hedayah funded by the European Union and implemented by the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right (CARR). The overall project creates one of the first comprehensive online toolkits for practitioners and civil society engaged in radical right extremist counter narrative campaigns. It uses online research to map narratives in nine countries and regions, including Australia, Canada, Germany, Hungary, New Zealand, Norway, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and the United States. It also proposes counter narratives for these countries and regions and advises on how to conduct such campaigns in an effective manner.
Topic:
Civil Society, Far Right, Radical Right, Civil Society Organizations, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Canada, Norway, Germany, Hungary, Australia, and New Zealand

6. Radical Right Narratives and Norwegian Counter-narratives in the Decade of Utøya and Bærum Solo-actor Attacks

Author:
Mette Wiggen
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hedayah
Abstract:
This country report, written by Dr. Mette Wiggen, is one of the outputs of the CARR-Hedayah Radical Right Counter Narratives Project, a year-long project under the STRIVE Global Program at Hedayah funded by the European Union and implemented by the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right (CARR). The overall project creates one of the first comprehensive online toolkits for practitioners and civil society engaged in radical right extremist counter narrative campaigns. It uses online research to map narratives in nine countries and regions, including Australia, Canada, Germany, Hungary, New Zealand, Norway, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and the United States. It also proposes counter narratives for these countries and regions and advises on how to conduct such campaigns in an effective manner.
Topic:
Civil Society, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Political Extremism, Civil Society Organizations, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Canada, Norway, Germany, Hungary, Australia, and New Zealand

7. Cartel Presence by State; Jalisco Nueva Generacion Cartel(CJNG) Achieves the Top Spot in the Country-Wide Territorial Campaign, Surpassing Sinaloa Cartel’s Control Throughout Mexico

Author:
Machiko Olivera
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
TRAC: Terrorism Research & Analysis Consortium
Abstract:
Despite the fact that the federal government has ordered the deployment of the armed forces in the country to combat drug traffickers, at least nineteen (19) cartels have active operations throughout the country, of which four (4) have a presence in more than ten (10) state – Jalisco Nueva Generación Cartel (CJNG) being the largest.
Topic:
War on Drugs, Violent Extremism, Trafficking, Drugs, and Legal Sector
Political Geography:
United States and Mexico

8. Iran Sanctions: The View From Iran

Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
World Politics Review
Abstract:
The ballistic missiles that Iran fired at two military bases in Iraq housing American troops could only be the start of Tehran’s retaliation. Many observers worry that more blowback could come in the form of Iran’s favored tactic of asymmetric warfare waged through its proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and pro-Iranian militias in Iraq. This escalation did not begin with the killing of Soleimani, but in May 2018, when Trump unilaterally took the United States out of the international agreement curbing Iran’s nuclear program, known as the JCPOA, and reimposed crippling sanctions on Iran’s economy. What impact has the U.S. exit from the nuclear deal had in Iran? How has it changed the Iranian regime’s foreign policy calculations? And how have Iranian citizens reacted to Trump’s campaign of “maximum pressure” and more sanctions? This WPR report provides an essential view of events from Iran.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, Military Affairs, Nuclear Power, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Iran

9. Far, Far More Than Meets the Eye: Extended Deterrence in Complex Crises in Northeast Asia

Author:
Brad Glosserman
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
The Pacific Forum, with support from the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), brought 41 officials and experts from the United States, Japan, and the Republic of Korea (ROK), along with eight Pacific Forum Young Leaders, all attending in their private capacity, to Maui, Hawaii, Sept. 5-6, 2019 to explore the three countries’ thinking about extended deterrence and prospects for and obstacles to strengthened trilateral security cooperation. A two-move tabletop exercise (TTX) was focused on concerted and coordinated efforts by China and North Korea to revise the status quo in Northeast Asia. Key findings include: Despite political difficulties, there was little difference among participants regarding assessments of the situation and dynamics in Northeast Asia. They were generally aligned and this was evident in responses to the TTX: they sought to prevent opportunism, provide off-ramps for adversaries, and didn’t rush to connect the incidents. Official statements notwithstanding, there is rising anxiety in Seoul and Tokyo for a variety of reasons. In the ROK, some concerns focus on the role of nuclear solutions to national security problems. In Japan, the issue is often the US-China balance of power. Tokyo and Seoul remain committed to their alliances with the US, however. Participants acknowledged that conventional strength among allies and the ability to coordinate more seamlessly strengthened extended deterrence.
Topic:
Deterrence
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Northeast Asia, Korean Peninsula, and Pacific Ocean

10. On the Value of Nuclear Dialogue with China

Author:
David Santoro and Robert Gromoll
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
This material is based on research sponsored by DTRA and managed by the US Air Force Academy (USAFA), and Pacific Forum International under agreement number FA7000-19-2- 0012. The US Government is authorized to reproduce and distribute reprints for Governmental purposes notwithstanding any copyright notation thereon. The opinions, findings, views, conclusions or recommendations contained herein are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies or endorsements, either expressed or implied, of the USAFA, DTRA, or the US Government. This paper was written by Dr. David Santoro, Vice President and Director for Nuclear Policy at the Pacific Forum, and Dr. Robert Gromoll, former Director of the Office of Regional Affairs at the US Department of State’s Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation; Dr. Gromoll is now retired. Both Drs. Santoro and Gromoll participated in numerous dialogue rounds, and Dr. Santoro was a co-organizer. The paper is based primarily on the contents of the dialogue’s written reports, several of which were authored or co-authored by Dr. Santoro. By and large, the paper draws directly from these reports and reviews how the topics addressed in the dialogue were approached and discussed by the US and Chinese sides over time. (A list of these reports is included at the end of the paper; some have been published, others have not.) The paper is also based on the authors’ broader experience in participating in the Track-1.5 dialogue; the conversations they have had with US and Chinese participants on these issues over the years, both during the dialogue and on the margins; and their own personal research. This paper represents the views of the authors and not those of Pacific Forum or the US State Department.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Nonproliferation, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
United States and China

11. Brothers in Arms and Faith? The Emerging US-Central and Eastern Europe ‘Special Relationship’

Author:
Vibeke Schou Tjalve and Minda Holm
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In this policy note, we explore the nature, strength and tensions of the contemporary US-Central Eastern Europe relationship. We describe the expanding US-CEE ‘brotherhood in arms’: growing trade relations, intensified military cooperation, and rekindled diplomatic ties. Further, we unpack the striking and largely ignored dimensions of the US-CEE ‘brotherhood in faith’: the many ways in which the United States and Central and Eastern Europe are tied together by overlapping ideologies of national conservatism and a particular version of Christian ‘family values’. This involves addressing the complexities of an increasingly influential and ambitious Visegrád Group, whose key players – Poland and Hungary – may be brothers, but are by no means twins. It also means raising some broader, burning discussions about the future of NATO and the meaning of ‘Europe’. Universalist, multicultural and postnational? Or conservative, Christian and sovereigntist?
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Conservatism, Alliance, Ideology, Christianity, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

12. Charting a New Course: Women, Peace and Security, and the Maritime Domain

Author:
Sahana Dharmapuri, Pamela Tansey, and Lexie Van Buskirk
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Our Secure Future
Abstract:
The Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda is a transformative policy mandate with a global constituency. It provides policymakers with the tools to end cycles of violent conflict, create more equitable peace processes, and promote gender equality on a global, national, and local scale. Passed in October 2000, United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security (UNSCR 1325) underscores women’s agency, voice, and capacities as intrinsic to creating more effective international peace and security policies. Since 2000, more than 80 countries have adopted Women, Peace and Security National Action Plans and other policies to robustly implement the WPS agenda. In 2017, the US Congress adopted the Women, Peace, and Security Act to incorporate the principle of gender equality into US foreign policy. The two main objectives of the WPS agenda are to 1) increase the representation of women in decision-making positions, and 2) to apply a gender perspective to matters of international peace and security.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Gender Issues, Women, and Peace
Political Geography:
United States and Global Focus

13. Do Americans Face Greater Mental Health and Economic Consequences from COVID-19? Comparing the U.S. with Other High-Income Countries

Author:
Michelle M. Doty, Eric C. Schneider, Roosa Tikkanen, Arnav Shah, and Reginald D. Williams II
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:
With more than 4 million confirmed cases and 150,000 deaths as of August, the United States is failing to control the COVID-19 pandemic. At a time when many nations are reopening their economies and societies, the U.S. is struggling in its attempts to do the same. To examine the early impact of the pandemic on the well-being of adults in the U.S. and abroad, the Commonwealth Fund joined the survey research firm SSRS to interview 8,259 adults age 18 and older between March and May 2020. It is the latest in the Commonwealth Fund’s series of cross-national comparisons featuring the United States and nine other high-income countries that participate in the Fund’s annual International Health Policy Survey. The following exhibits illustrate COVID-19’s effects on people’s mental health and economic security and compare levels of public trust in national leaders in responding to the pandemic.
Topic:
Health, Health Care Policy, Mental Health, and Public Health
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Global Focus

14. Bundled-Payment Models Around the World: How They Work and What Their Impact Has Been

Author:
Meredith B. Rosenthal, Paul F. van Gils, Caroline A. Baan, Eline F. de Vries, and Jeroen Struijs
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:
We identified 23 initiatives in eight countries that have implemented bundled-payment models, focusing on procedures such as total joint replacements and cardiac surgery, as well as chronic conditions like diabetes and breast cancer. Of the 35 studies retrieved, 32 reported effects on quality of care and 32 reported effects on medical spending. Twenty of 32 studies reported modest savings or a modest reduction in spending growth, while two studies (both based on the same initiative) demonstrated increased spending in the early years of the bundled-payment model’s implementation. Eighteen of 32 studies reported quality improvements for most evaluated measures, while other studies showed no difference in measured quality. Our study provides evidence that bundled-payment models have the potential to reduce medical spending growth while having either a positive impact or no impact on quality of care.
Topic:
Economics, Health, Health Care Policy, Income Inequality, Macroeconomics, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United States and Global Focus

15. U.S. Health Care from a Global Perspective, 2019: Higher Spending, Worse Outcomes?

Author:
Roosa Tikkanen and Melinda K. Abrams
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:
A 2015 Commonwealth Fund brief showed that — before the major provisions of the Affordable Care Act were introduced — the United States had worse outcomes and spent more on health care, largely because of greater use of medical technology and higher prices, compared to other high-income countries. By benchmarking the performance of the U.S. health care system against other countries — and updating with new data as they become available — we can gain important insights into our strengths and weaknesses and help policymakers and delivery system leaders identify areas for improvement. This analysis is the latest in a series of Commonwealth Fund cross-national comparisons that uses health data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to assess U.S. health care system spending, outcomes, risk factors and prevention, utilization, and quality, relative to 10 other high-income countries: Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. We also compare U.S. performance to that of the OECD average, comprising 36 high-income member countries.
Topic:
Health and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Global Focus

16. What Is the Endgame in Syria?

Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
World Politics Review
Abstract:
What does victory on President Bashar al-Assad’s brutal terms look like? How has the rise and fall of the Islamic State changed Syria’s political map? How will U.S. President Trump’s decision to withdraw U.S. troops from northeastern Syria and the subsequent Turkish invasion of the area change the situation?And what about reconstruction, let alone reconciliation? This WPR report provides a comprehensive look at those questions and several others that will determine what’s to come in Syria, with impacts far beyond the Middle East.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Proxy War, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

17. New Britain, Connecticut: A Case Report of Refugees in Towns

Author:
Maha Abdullah, Joy Al-Nemri, Emily Goldman, and Ian James
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
New Britain, Connecticut has a long history of immigration. This report focuses on the experiences of newly arrived Arabic-speaking immigrants and refugees from Syria, Iraq, Sudan, Yemen, and Morocco. The Arab population of New Britain has increased faster than other migrant populations over the last eight years, from 161 in 2010 to 733 in 2017. As of December 2018, there were approximately 260 Arabic-speaking families living in New Britain. The services in the city have taken notice and are starting to make changes to meet the needs of New Britain’s Arabic-speaking populations. Educators and employees of nonprofits told us that their organizations are still collecting data about New Britain’s Arabic-speaking community and trying to understand the specific needs of Arabic-speaking immigrants and refugees. Our research focuses on the organizations involved in the resettlement process and individuals’ experiences with the resettlement process. New Britain is a city with a well-documented history of welcoming immigrants, and the ways in which that history is remembered affect how refugees and immigrants adapt today.
Topic:
Migration and Refugees
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Syria

18. U.S.-China Rivalry in the Trump Era

Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
World Politics Review
Abstract:
Integrating China into the liberal trade order was expected to have a moderating effect on Beijing. Instead, under President Xi Jinping, China has asserted its military control over the South China Sea and cracked down on domestic dissent, all while continuing to use unfair trade practices to boost its economy. As a result, a bipartisan consensus has emerged in Washington that the U.S. must rethink the assumptions underpinning its approach to China’s rise. But President Donald Trump’s confrontational approach, including a costly trade war, is unlikely to prove effective. This report provides a comprehensive look at the military and economic aspects of U.S.-China rivalry in the Trump era.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Military Affairs, Trade Wars, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
United States and China

19. Future Crime: Assessing twenty first century crime prediction

Author:
Katherine Aguirre, Emile Badran, and Robert Muggah
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
Cities are where the future happens first. They are hubs of innovation, productivity and experimentation. But many cities also are sites of crime and violence. More than ever, municipal authorities, private firms and civic groups are experimenting with new ways to improve real and perceived safety in cities. In some cities, new technologies are improving the situational awareness of public authorities and citizens. In others, all encompassing surveillance and monitoring systems are challenging fundamental norms of privacy. In most developed cities, high-frequency time series information on insecurity is increasingly available. Literally thousands of gigabytes of raw data are available representing the dynamics and characteristics of crime. New high-power computer analysis is giving rise to a next generation of smart, agile and evidence-informed policing strategies. Predictive platforms in particular can enhance police operations, identifying priority targets for police intervention, and enabling more effective allocation of police resources.
Topic:
Crime, Science and Technology, Basic Data, Violence, Urban, Police, and Cities
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, and Chile