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311. Will COVID Drive an Early Peak in Transportation Activity and Oil Demand?

Author:
Marianne Kah, Lew Fulton, Amy Myers Jaffe, Mark Schwartz, and Mark Finley
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
A critical question to emerge from the oil demand crash in 2020 caused by the global pandemic is whether it marked the beginning of an inexorable decline in consumption of the fossil fuel that could significantly speed up government efforts to meet net zero carbon targets. The changes in government policy, technology, consumer behavior, and shipping during COVID-19 have been profound. Electric vehicle sales increased in a number of countries, while overall automobile sales declined. The use of digital technology accelerated with a sharp rise in telecommuting, teleshopping, and teleconferencing, cutting into transportation oil use primarily in passenger and air travel. However, some aspects of the COVID experience increased oil use. There was significant substitution away from mass transit to greater use of personal vehicles and there is some evidence that people left large cities in the United States for the suburbs and smaller cities where there is less mass transit available and people drive more for non-commuting activities. There was also a large increase in e-commerce deliveries in the US and other nations that buoyed short-haul truck vehicle miles traveled. While unrelated to transportation, there was also an increase during COVID in petrochemicals used for personal protection equipment and packaging for take-out food and e-commerce deliveries. Because of fossil fuels’ greenhouse gas emissions, understanding how oil demand might return and when it could peak will be factors in governments’ strategies for addressing climate change. In the summer and fall of 2020, Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy and the University of California, Davis Institute for Transportation Studies (ITS-Davis) conducted an oil demand scenario study out to 2030. The goal was to understand how COVID, in combination with other political, economic, social, and technological drivers, may impact long-term transportation activity and global oil demand and to try to determine whether oil demand has already peaked. Forty-four leading energy and transportation experts developed four scenarios that varied by the pace of economic recovery, the level of government intervention in energy markets, and the stickiness in the mobility trends that were set in motion during the 2020 pandemic lockdowns. ITS-Davis then modeled the impacts of these scenarios on transportation energy and oil use. Other sectors less impacted by COVID were modeled with lesser detail. Global oil demand grows through 2030 in three out of the report’s four scenarios, which is generally in line with forecasts by agencies such as the International Energy Agency and others for that period. The one scenario that bucks the trend, named Forced Revitalization, is characterized by strong government intervention in green stimulus, acceleration of digital mobility technologies, and a slower economic recovery—the result being oil demand falling after 2025. The greater competitiveness of alternative fuels and the weaker economy in that scenario contribute to lower oil use overall. The study finds that while great uncertainty remains about the speed and strength of the world’s recovery from COVID, the current state of government climate policies and technology innovation are unlikely to reduce global oil demand fast enough to help the world keep within a 1.5°C temperature rise along the net zero carbon trajectory. Both government climate policies and technology innovation would need to move well beyond what was contemplated in this study’s scenarios.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Infrastructure, Transportation, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

312. Evaluating Net-Zero Industrial Hubs in the United States: A Case Study of Houston

Author:
Julio Friedman, Mahak Agrawal, and Amar Bhardwaj
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
New legislation, corporate action, and public interest have created both an imperative and opportunities associated with rapid and profound CO2 reduction and removal. Net-zero industrial hubs present a pathway to focus investment, innovation, and public policy to create industries and infrastructure toward achieving that goal. Such a hub would require building facilities, plants, and linked infrastructure that would reduce and eventually eliminate greenhouse gas emissions through the application of advanced clean energy, emissions control technology, and possibly CO2 removal technology. This concept, while relatively new, has already gained interest from some nations and companies, most notably in the United Kingdom around net-zero hubs like the Teesside collective. This paper, part of the work from the Carbon Management Research Initiative of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, examines Houston as a potential net-zero hub location. Houston, a major US refining and petrochemical center, possesses a high concentration of industrial sites and fossil-fueled power plants. Regional CO2 storage capacity, low-cost energy, infrastructure like the Port of Houston, and a large skilled labor pool also suggest a possible opportunity for investment, trade, and greenhouse gas reduction in this area. The paper also makes recommendations for policy makers should they seek to pursue a net-zero hub in the Houston area.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Industry, Carbon Emissions, and Energy Dependence
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

313. Advancing Corporate Procurement of Zero-Carbon Electricity in the United States: Moving from RE100 to ZC100

Author:
Melissa Lott and Bruce Phillips
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Corporate pledges to purchase renewable electricity have led to significant new solar and wind capacity investments and driven down the carbon intensity of the power sector in the United States. Participating companies have increasingly procured this power, many with a goal of procuring quantities that are equal or proportional to the amount of electricity that they consume at their facilities on an annual basis.[1] Corporate buyers can reap many benefits from renewables procurement, including hedging against power price fluctuations and enjoying positive brand association, helping them meet shareholder demands around climate or other environmental, social, and governance (ESG) goals. However, the reality is that commitments to buy 100 percent renewable electricity may not equate to a company actually reducing its power carbon footprint to zero. This report from Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy quantifies the mismatch between companies’ contracted variable renewable electricity (VRE) and their actual use of electricity to highlight the degree to which these companies still rely on a partially fossil-fueled power grid to bridge the gap. A modeling exercise and analysis done in collaboration with The NorthBridge Group reveals a significant shortfall between electricity demand and VRE supply, leaving companies that contract for 100 percent renewables to in fact draw between 20 percent and 50 percent[2] of their annual electricity from the regional electric grid, depending on their location, demand profile, and mix of contracted renewable supplies. This disparity presents a number of challenges to corporations that wish to achieve deep decarbonization and are unable to curtail operations to match renewable energy supplies. There are several approaches to get closer to a true zero-carbon power footprint. Installing storage capacity either on-site or at the power plant to provide stored electricity when renewables are not sufficient, such as with a battery,[3] is one option. However, this only reduces the minimum shortfall by half, requiring a customer to continue to rely on electricity from the regional electric grid for 10 percent to 28 percent of its annual load.[4] Resolving the shortfall by procuring extra renewable power (e.g., to 150 percent of annual electricity demand with renewables) can drive costs up substantially without closing the gap.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Green Technology, Carbon Emissions, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

314. Comparing a Clean Electricity Standard and a Carbon Tax

Author:
Peter Marsters, John Larsen, Ben King, Hannah Kolus, and Whitney Herndon
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
As the United States commits to accelerating decarbonization as part of global efforts to combat climate change, the policies it enacts will govern its chances of success. These international ambitions are balanced against domestic realities: the effect of net-zero greenhouse gas strategies on households and the broader economy. Comparing different policy options against one another in terms of specific outcomes, such as emissions abatement and financial impact on consumers, is a useful exercise for policy makers. Because US congressional proposals have focused on two potential policy routes—an economy-wide price on carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions, and a sector-by-sector approach that starts with a clean electricity standard—this report models outcomes for these scenarios. A carbon tax and clean electricity standard (CES) are similar policies in some ways. Both have the potential to drive large emissions reductions from the US power sector and beyond. If the CES is designed to be technology-neutral with tradable credits for clean electricity generation, both policies would operate as market-based mechanisms to encourage such generation. They also differ in significant ways, and this report, part of the Carbon Tax Research Initiative at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, uses energy system modeling to zero in on those differences to enable policy makers to better understand the advantages and drawbacks of each policy tool. A variety of constructions even within a single tool—particularly a CES—can be employed. What type of generation is eligible for credit in a CES and how much credit each resource receives, for example, are in part products of political and policy trade-offs. For comparison purposes with an economy-wide carbon tax, this report primarily focuses on a single crediting approach that most closely resembles the incentives new and existing electric power generators could receive under a carbon tax (and is similar to the CES included in the Clean Energy Innovation and Deployment Act of 2020). And for CES comparison purposes, the authors construct a carbon tax pathway that closely approximates the annual and cumulative electric power CO2 emissions of the CES. Given the equal emissions-reduction ambitions of the two policies modeled in this report, the greatest trade-offs come down to price increases and revenues. The carbon tax raises consumers’ electricity price more than the CES does, but also raises significant revenues that could be used, among other purposes, to offset increases in consumers’ energy-related bills.
Topic:
Green Technology, Tax Systems, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Carbon Tax, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

315. Reimagining a Canadian National Security Strategy

Author:
Aaron Shull and Wesley Wark
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This CIGI special report is a "cri de cœur" arguing for a new approach to national security strategy and honest, transparent engagement with the reality of the threats we face as a country. It outlines the key threats that we now confront: a vastly altered geopolitical environment with the rising power of China at its core, ongoing and future pandemic threats, climate change security impacts, uncontrolled technological change and the undermining of economic security. Meeting these threats requires a sovereign, made-in-Canada response that protects Canada’s democracy and national interest and that operates within an environment of informed public understanding. Canada must pivot to face looming global threats and can and must do so from a position of knowledge and strength. This special report is the culmination of a project unprecedented in scale and scope in Canada. Beginning in the fall of 2020, CIGI set out to mobilize a large and diverse set of Canadian and international experts to examine Canada’s national security landscape. The CIGI project, Reimagining a Canadian National Security Strategy, features the publication of this capstone report, authored by the project’s co-directors, alongside 10 thematic reports allowing for deeper dives into critical, present-day national security issues. This report makes a series of key policy recommendations to assist the Government of Canada in addressing the challenges of a new security environment.
Topic:
Security, National Security, Governance, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

316. Solidarity in Isolation? Social Cohesion at a Time of Physical Distance

Author:
Natalia Banulescu-Bogdan and Aliyyah Ahad
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
In addition to its widespread public-health and economic impacts, the COVID-19 pandemic has challenged social cohesion in many countries by forcing changes in how people interact. Physical connection, the most human response to collective adversity, has been largely out of reach during long periods of lockdown, social distancing, and remote work and learning. The temporary closure of public spaces such as libraries and schools has also limited the spontaneous, casual encounters that can build bridges between disparate groups. This MPI Europe report explores ways to assess the pandemic’s effects on social capital and social infrastructure in Europe and North America. It also presents an initial analysis of how and where social cohesion is in peril and where it may actually be gaining strength, and highlights the importance of governments taking an inclusive approach and prioritizing social cohesion as societies move toward recovery. The authors identify three trends: Bridges between groups are weakening, even as new forms of connection may be strengthening bonds within existing networks. Immigrant integration programs have worked hard to move their offerings online, but digital tools may capture only a fraction of what in-person programming can and they may leave behind some people who most need assistance overcoming integration barriers, such as those with limited access to and familiarity with technology. A wide range of volunteering, mutual aid, and other grassroots forms of solidarity have emerged during the pandemic, but it remains to be seen which can make the switch from emergency response to longer-term engagement.
Topic:
Immigration, Citizenship, Integration, Social Cohesion, Social Capital, COVID-19, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and Global Focus

317. Spring 2020: The International Student Journey

Author:
Allan E. Goodman, Robert A. Scott, Gretchen Dobson, Meredith Doubleday, Darla K. Deardorff, Lindsay Addington, Peter Baker, Elisabeth Bloxam, Niki Kerameus, Jennifer Evanuik, and Reitumetse Obakeng Mabokela
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:
International students are a core part of any institution’s internationalization strategy. Beyond boosting enrollment numbers, institutions are increasingly focused on understanding what makes for a successful international student experience. In the Spring 2020 issue of the IIENetworker magazine, The International Student Journey, professionals from around the world share their strategies and perspectives on international student success from outreach and recruitment to the on-campus experience through to alumni initiatives. How do institutions recruit as the global landscape for international students has expanded? What can be done to ensure that your international students are as integrated on your campus as domestic students? And once they leave campus, does your relationship with these students end?
Topic:
Demographics, Education, Youth, Institutions, and Higher Education
Political Geography:
Greece, North America, and United States of America

318. COVID‐19 Effects on US Higher Education Campuses: Academic Student Mobility to and from China

Author:
Mirka Martel
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:
The Institute of International Education (IIE) is studying the effects of COVID‐19 (coronavirus) on global student mobility on U.S. higher education campuses. Our aim in this series is to provide more information about the effects that COVID‐19 has had on international student mobility, and the measures U.S. higher education institutions are taking regarding international students currently on campus and those abroad, international students interested in studying in the United States, and U.S. students planning to study abroad. The first survey was launched on Feb. 13, 2020, and specifically focuses on the effects of COVID‐19 with regard to academic student mobility to and from China. As the COVID‐19 outbreak evolves, IIE will administer follow‐on surveys to the U.S. higher education community to monitor the unfolding situation and to keep the international education community informed.
Topic:
Education, Health, Youth, Mobility, Higher Education, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

319. Senior Conference 55—The Emerging Environment in the Indo-Pacific Region: Drivers, Directions, and Decisions

Author:
Terry Babcock-Lumish, Tania Chacho, Tom Fox, and Zachary Griffiths
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
As the Indo-Pacific region enters a period of uncertainty, this monograph details the proceedings of West Point’s 2019 Senior Conference 55. Scholars and practitioners convened to discuss and debate strategic changes, and experts shared thoughts during keynote addresses and panels on economics, security, technology, and potential futures in this critically important region.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Armed Forces, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Asia, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

320. Professionalizing the Iraqi Army: US Engagement after the Islamic State

Author:
C. Anthony Pfaff
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Security cooperation with Iraq remains a critical component of the US-Iraq relationship. Despite neighboring Iran’s ability to limit US political and economic engagement, Iraq still seeks US assistance to develop its military and to combat resurgent terrorist organizations. This monograph provides a historical and cultural basis from which to understand the limitations and potential for US cooperation with Iraq’s armed forces.
Topic:
Security, Politics, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Islamic State, and Economy
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America