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1. Using Targeted Sanctions to Help Prevent Mass Atrocities: Results from Interviews with Experienced Practitioners

Author:
Tallan Donine, Kyra Fox, Daniel Solomon, Alex Vandermaas-Peeler, and Lawerence Woocher
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
The Simon-Skjodt Center’s “lessons learned” project aims to understand better how policy makers, across all levels of government, can take effective action to prevent mass atrocity crimes and protect civilian populations in situations where they face serious threats of group-targeted, systematic violence. We have sought to identify, distill, and organize insights on a range of policy tools—ranging from “naming and shaming” to sanctions to prosecutions—which are sometimes used to help prevent or respond to mass atrocities. To complement our review of the empirical research literature on the use of targeted sanctions, we conducted interviews with people who had substantial policy or operational experience working in the US government on targeted sanctions prior to 2021. The premise for the interviews is that experienced practitioners have important insights about when and how targeted sanctions can be most effective in helping prevent mass atrocities.3 While one can find many ideas about how to use targeted sanctions most effectively, none that we are aware of are: (1) focused specifically on the use of targeted sanctions for mass atrocity prevention and (2) based on the collective perspectives of a set of experienced practitioners. This report summarizes the results of the interviews with experienced targeted sanctions practitioners. Details on the methods employed and the interview respondents are presented in appendices.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Sanctions, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Global Peace Index 2023

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
This is the 17th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness. Produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. This report presents the most comprehensive datadriven analysis to-date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies. The GPI covers 163 countries comprising 99.7 per cent of the world’s population, using 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources, and measures the state of peace across three domains: the level of Societal Safety and Security; the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict; and the degree of Militarisation. In addition to discussing the findings from the 2023 GPI, the report includes analysis of current conflicts and potential future conflicts, including an analysis of the likely economic impact of a Chinese blockade of Taiwan on the global economy. This year’s results found that the average level of global peacefulness deteriorated by 0.42 per cent. This is the thirteenth deterioration in peacefulness in the last fifteen years, with 84 countries improving and 79 deteriorating in peacefulness in 2022.
Topic:
Economics, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Safety Perceptions Index 2023 Foundation: Understanding the impact of risk around the world

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
The Lloyd’s Register Foundation Safety Perceptions Index (SPI) provides a comprehensive assessment of worries and experiences of risk across 121 countries. The SPI is a unique body of work, providing a deeper understanding of citizens’ feelings of safety than any other publicly available source. The index is produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) on the basis of data from the World Risk Poll, a global survey designed by the Lloyd’s Register Foundation and administered by Gallup. This is the second edition of the SPI. The report analyses two iterations of the World Risk Poll, the first conducted in 2019 and the second conducted in 2021; providing commentary, trends, and insights into these two sets of data. One of the defining features of the research is that one survey was administered prior to the onset of COVID-19 and the other was administered afterwards, allowing for an analysis of the effects of the pandemic on perceptions of risk. This report will be useful in the decades ahead as it will give insight into likely shifts in perceptions of risk for any future pandemics that may occur. The SPI measures two themes, worry about harm and recent experience of serious harm, analysing them across five domains: food and water, violent crime, severe weather, mental health, and workplace safety. These themes and domains are combined into a composite score which reflects perceptions of safety by country and region.The past several years have been characterised by rising feelings of uncertainty worldwide. Central to this shift has been the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted the functioning of social institutions as well as patterns of individual and collective behaviour in countless ways.1 Multiple studies have shown that the pandemic brought about increased levels of fear and anxiety across groups.2 Against this backdrop, there are two central findings of the 2023 SPI report. The first is that there were two parallel developments in people’s perceptions of safety over the last several years. On the one hand, the index showed no meaningful change in levels of worry and experience of harm in the aggregate, with an improvement of less than 0.1 percentage points recorded between 2019 and 2021. On the other hand, complementary data from the World Risk Poll points to a notable rise in generalised and non-specific feelings of fear and lack of safety throughout the world, with people becoming more fearful overall but less certain about the sources of potential threats.
Topic:
Economics, Infrastructure, Risk, Peace, Threat Perception, and Public Safety
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. Towards an Intersectional Feminist Development Policy for Germany

Author:
Aïssa Boodhoo and Damjan Denkovski
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Feminist Foreign Policy
Abstract:
In the development of Germany’s Feminist Development Policy Strategy, the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) conducted a consultative process which included online consultations, a high-level conference, and civil society dialogues. While the broadest consultative process by the German government to date, the BMZ process had limitations in terms of Global South participation and language accessibility. To complement the official BMZ-led process, the Centre for Feminist Foreign Policy (CFFP) initiated a comprehensive co-creation process involving diverse feminist civil society organisations from the Global South, Germany, and other Global North countries. Guided by position papers from various perspectives, desk research, and interviews, the CFFP feminist convenings process involved over 100 feminists from diverse backgrounds, spanned over 25 countries, provided compensation to small and Global South organisations, and incorporated intersectional perspectives. The process consisted of in-person and online convenings held in multiple languages, ensuring broad accessibility. This report is a summary of the rich discussions and recommendations of feminists. It aims to influence policymakers and initiate action in shaping Germany's Feminist Development Policy. This report opens by discussing five action areas in chapter 1, which serve as comprehensive guidelines for immediate transformative action across policy areas. The second chapter discusses feminist reflections in six thematic areas: economic justice, climate justice, food sovereignty and agriculture, sexual and reproductive health and rights, protecting minority rights, and education.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, Economics, Education, Minorities, Partnerships, Feminism, Reproductive Rights, Digitalization, Funding, and Food Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Germany and Global Focus

5. Polanyi, Market Fundamentalism, and the Institutional Structure of Capitalism

Author:
Leonardo Burlamaqui
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:
The basic proposition of this paper is that the so-called "new economic sociology", which is rooted in key ideas of Karl Polanyi, is an indispensable "tool" for two tasks: a) it provides us with a powerful critique of market fundamentalism, and b) it allows us to analyze the economic performance of contemporary capitalism by accessing the working of its institutional structure. From an analytical perspective, the paper suggests that Polanyian Economic Sociology is an essential complement to both the Schumpeterian and the Post-Keynesian perspectives in economics. This is especially so when it comes to the discussion of "socioeconomic stability" and, more precisely, as Keynes himself stated in the General Theory: to explain why capitalist economies manifest themselves in different ways and degrees, in spite of encompassing inherent elements of instability and unpredictability.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Political Economy, Sociology, and Capitalism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. Positive Peace Report 2022

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
This report showcases the findings of the Institute for Economics and Peace’s (IEP) research, including its latest results on Positive Peace and systems thinking. Positive Peace is defined as the attitudes, institutions and structures that create and sustain peaceful societies. It is conceptually and empirically related to many constructive aspects of social development and can be used in multiple contexts. It can also be used to compile an index – the Positive Peace Index (PPI). This allows for the comparison and tracking of the factors that create flourishing societies. These and other concepts related to Positive Peace are covered in the first section of this report, as well as general PPI results, including rankings and changes over time. Positive Peace is closely associated with system concepts to the extent that it is difficult to separate the two. IEP has further deepened its unique understanding of how societal systems function and has developed a framework called Halo which provides a comprehensive approach to analysing societal systems.
Topic:
Economics, Business, Institutions, Peace, Resilience, COVID-19, and Positive Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7. Global Peace Index 2022

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
This is the 16th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness. Produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. This report presents the most comprehensive data-driven analysis to-date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies. The GPI covers 163 countries comprising 99.7 per cent of the world’s population, using 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources, and measures the state of peace across three domains: the level of societal Safety and Security; the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict; and the degree of Militarisation. In addition to discussing the findings from the 2022 GPI, the report includes an analysis of the military conflict in Ukraine. It covers likely increases in military spending, new and emerging uses of technology in the war, its impact on food prices and global shipping routes. The report also contains a deeper analysis on violent demonstrations around the world.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Economics, Terrorism, Military Spending, Conflict, Peace, and Instability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8. Global Peace Index 2022

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
This is the 16th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness. Produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. This report presents the most comprehensive data-driven analysis to-date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies. The GPI covers 163 countries comprising 99.7 per cent of the world’s population, using 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources, and measures the state of peace across three domains: the level of societal Safety and Security; the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict; and the degree of Militarisation. In addition to discussing the findings from the 2022 GPI, the report includes an analysis of the military conflict in Ukraine. It covers likely increases in military spending, new and emerging uses of technology in the war, its impact on food prices and global shipping routes. The report also contains a deeper analysis on violent demonstrations around the world. This year’s results found that the average level of global peacefulness deteriorated by 0.3 per cent. Although slight, this is the eleventh deterioration in peacefulness in the last fourteen years, with 90 countries improving, 71 deteriorating and two remaining stable in peacefulness, highlighting that countries tend to deteriorate much faster than they improve.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9. National Development Delivers: And How! And How?

Author:
Lant Pritchett
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Core dual ideas of early development economics and practice were that (a) national development was a four-fold transformation of countries towards: (i) a more productive economy, (ii) a more responsive state, (iii) more capable administration, and (iv) a shared identity and equal treatment of citizens and (b) this four-fold transformation of national development would lead to higher levels of human wellbeing. The second idea is strikingly correct: development delivers. National development is empirically necessary for high wellbeing (no country with low levels of national development has high human wellbeing) and also empirically sufficient (no country with high national development has low levels of human wellbeing). Three measures of national development: productive economy, capable administration, and responsive state, explain (essentially) all of the observed variation in an omnibus indicator of wellbeing, the Social Progress Index, which is based on 58 distinct non-economic indicators. How national development delivers on wellbeing varies, in three ways. One, economic growth is much more important for achieving wellbeing at low versus high levels of income. Two, economic growth matters more for “basic needs” than for other dimensions of wellbeing (like social inclusiveness or environmental quality). Three, state capability matters more for wellbeing outcomes that depend on public production than on private goods (and for some wellbeing indicators, like physical safety, for which growth doesn’t matter at all). While these findings may seem too common sense to be worth a paper, national development--and particularly economic growth—is, strangely, under severe challenge as an important and legitimate objective of action within the development industry.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. Citizens in the World’s Leading Economies Want a Fast Recovery Post-Pandemic

Author:
John Halpin, Alexandra Schmitt, Matt Browne, Marcus A. Roberts, Sophy Hinchcliffe, and Hans Anker
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
New polling of adults across G-7 nations plus Australia highlights key lessons learned from the coronavirus pandemic and the need for better-prepared, more equal societies.
Topic:
Economics, Discrimination, Pandemic, COVID-19, Equality, and Racism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11. Business & Peace 2021

Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
Rather than asking what businesses can do for peace, this study differentiates itself by focusing on what peace can offer businesses. The Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) sees this as an important, but missing step in business analysis. In order for the private sector to engage with peacebuilding, investors first need to see the benefits of peace to their investment decisions. This work shows that economic performance can be predicted by movements in the same socio-economic developmental factors that affect peacefulness. These conditions are known as Positive Peace. The global economic impact of violence was $14.4 trillion in 2020. This is broadly equivalent to the entire economy of China. If humanity were to reduce violence by ten per cent per annum, the savings of $1.4 trillion would broadly equate to adding an economy the size of Russia’s or Brazil’s every year to the global fold. The burden of violence on an economy is self-evident. However, this report focusses on the converse perspective: countries that improve their underlying conditions, as gauged by IEP’s measures of peace, create the potential for a significant peace dividend for business.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Business, Peace, and International Business
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12. Opportunities and Limits of CO2 Recycling in a Circular Carbon Economy: Techno-economics, Critical Infrastructure Needs, and Policy Priorities

Author:
Amar Bhardwaj, Colin McCormick, and Julio Friedmann
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Despite growing efforts to drastically cut carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and address climate change, energy outlooks project that the world will continue to rely on certain products that are currently carbon-intensive to produce but have limited alternatives, such as aviation fuels and concrete. Recycling CO2 into valuable chemicals, fuels, and materials has emerged as an opportunity to reduce the emissions of these products. In this way, CO2 recycling is a potential cornerstone of a circular carbon economy that can support a net-zero future. However, CO2 recycling processes have largely remained costly and difficult to deploy, underscoring the need for supportive policies informed by analysis of the current state and future challenges of CO2 recycling. This report, part of the Carbon Management Research Initiative at Columbia University’s Center on Global Policy, examines 19 CO2 recycling pathways to understand the opportunities and the technical and economic limits of CO2 recycling products gaining market entry and reaching global scale. The pathways studied consume renewable (low-carbon) electricity and use chemical feedstocks derived from electrochemical pathways powered by renewable energy. Across these CO2 recycling pathways, the authors evaluated current globally representative production costs, sensitivities to cost drivers, carbon abatement potential, critical infrastructure and feedstock needs, and the effect of subsidies. Based on this analysis, the paper concludes with targeted policy recommendations to support CO2 recycling innovation and deployment.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Infrastructure, Carbon Emissions, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13. Oil Intensity: The Curiously Steady Decline of Oil in GDP

Author:
Christof Ruhl and Titus Erker
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Oil is the largest primary fuel, and the trajectory of oil consumption is of great concern and consequence for economic, political, and, not least, for climate change reasons. Anticipating oil prices and production from year to year is not easy; identifying even basic ingredients of aggregate demand and supply schedules, such as price or income elasticities, is notoriously difficult. It’s an additional challenge to model the structure of a market that sometimes appears to be highly cartelized, and at other times populated by a large flock of peaceful price takers. But a remarkably steady metric—and possible tool for projecting consumption into the future—has been identified in this paper: oil intensity. Oil intensity is the volume of oil consumed per unit of gross domestic product (GDP). Measured simply in barrels per dollar, it is often viewed as a broad measure of oil efficiency; it certainly demonstrates the importance of oil in a society. The efficiency of oil use has improved, in other words oil intensity has declined, over the years and decades. In 1973, for example, when oil intensity was at its zenith, the world used a little less than one barrel of oil to produce $1,000 worth of GDP (2015 prices). By 2019 (the last data set before Covid) global oil intensity was 0.43 barrel per $1,000 of global GDP—a 56% decline. Oil has become a lot less important and humanity has become more efficient in making use of it. What is worth a closer look, and is the focus of this paper reporting on oil and gas related research at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, is the pattern by which this progress has been achieved. Since 1984, oil intensity has fallen every year in an almost perfectly linear fashion: the amount of oil used per dollar of global GDP has dropped by roughly the same amount each year. Wars and revolutions, booms and busts, OPEC successes and failures, and every other monumental event in the last 35 years left their imprint on oil markets but didn’t alter oil intensity’s steady, downward crawl. This kind of regularity is very rare in any long-time trend, in economics or in energy. Although oil intensity isn’t a new topic, an attempt to explain its curiously consistent downward progress—or even any discussion about it—is hard to find in the literature. For this paper, the authors explain the trend and cross-validate its predictive potential before delving into possible reasons behind the linear decline in oil intensity. It finally extrapolates what such a continuing trend might mean for oil consumption and policies around it going forward.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and GDP
Political Geography:
Global Focus

14. Bundled-Payment Models Around the World: How They Work and What Their Impact Has Been

Author:
Meredith B. Rosenthal, Paul F. van Gils, Caroline A. Baan, Eline F. de Vries, and Jeroen Struijs
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:
We identified 23 initiatives in eight countries that have implemented bundled-payment models, focusing on procedures such as total joint replacements and cardiac surgery, as well as chronic conditions like diabetes and breast cancer. Of the 35 studies retrieved, 32 reported effects on quality of care and 32 reported effects on medical spending. Twenty of 32 studies reported modest savings or a modest reduction in spending growth, while two studies (both based on the same initiative) demonstrated increased spending in the early years of the bundled-payment model’s implementation. Eighteen of 32 studies reported quality improvements for most evaluated measures, while other studies showed no difference in measured quality. Our study provides evidence that bundled-payment models have the potential to reduce medical spending growth while having either a positive impact or no impact on quality of care.
Topic:
Economics, Health, Health Care Policy, Income Inequality, Macroeconomics, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United States and Global Focus

15. Research Report: Gender-Sensitive Provisions In Peace Agreements And Women’s Political And Economic Inclusion Post-Conflict

Author:
Mavic Cabrera-Balleza
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP)
Abstract:
The Center for Global Affairs of the School of Professional Studies (CGA) at the New York University and the Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP) have partnered to create a research-based practicum project for NYU students. During the first practicum in the Fall of 2019, five students from the Master’s in Global Affairs program at CGA worked in teams to address research questions that emerged from GNWP’s work and research on current and past peace processes, and women’s roles in peacebuilding and sustaining peace. Using quantitative and qualitative analysis, the students examined the effect of women’s participation in peace negotiations and gender-sensitive provisions in peace agreements on women’s political representation and economic empowerment post-conflict.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Peacekeeping, Women, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16. Big Tech, Antitrust, and Breakup

Author:
Michael A. Carrier
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Big Tech is in the news. At the center of our political and economic dialogue is the effect that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have on our lives and what, if anything, governments should do about it. In this article, I explain how Big Tech has come under scrutiny, the antitrust implications of the industry’s behavior, and the potential remedy of breaking up the companies.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Science and Technology, Regulation, Internet, Social Media, and Business
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

17. Global Governance in 2030: Prospective Scenarios on the Future of Politics

Author:
Julia Pomares and María Belén Abdala
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Implementation of Public Policies for Equity and Growth (CIPPEC)
Abstract:
We are living in an era of unprecedented changes. Mature democracies, emerging polities and the least electorally competitive countries are now facing new challenges in a globalized world. They are all dealing with technological breakthroughs, changes in global economic power, ageing populations and urbanization of their territories. Today’s picture shows that social inclusion seems to be an unfulfilled promise, and social cohesion is weakening. Some citizens are disenchanted, and political systems are having trouble adapting and responding to new demands. According to Edelman’s Trust Barometer (2017), one in every two countries does not have faith in the system, and we still do not know how this picture is going to evolve. In democracies, pro-democracy attitudes coexist with openness to nondemocratic forms of governance, such as rule by experts (49 per cent), strong leaders (26 per cent) or the military (24 per cent). This picture might be part of a transition period or indicating that polities are not being able to cope with some of the new challenges. It is why we need to think about the future of politics and how these trends will shape global governance in the next 10 to 20 years. Are political systems ready to govern a digital economy? How should political leaders evolve to address radical changes in an automated world? What will the consequences be for global governance and for the role of G20? This paper analyzes current global trends in domestic politics and the prospective scenarios on the future of politics. To do so, the paper presents a brief description on three forces we know will forge the future: technological breakthroughs, demographic changes and shifts in global economic power. Later, it turns to the uncertainty of the future. We live in nation states, so we first attempt to devise how these forces will shape domestic politics. We then look at global governance and the way these trends will impact upon it. The final stop of this journey is an analysis of the implications of these scenarios for the role of the G20.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, Governance, Democracy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

18. How the G20 can hasten recovery from COVID-19

Author:
Maurice Obstfeld, Adam S. Posen, Olivier Blanchard, Chad P. Bown, Cullen S. Hendrix, Ana González, Simeon Djankov, Anne-Laure Kiechel, Anna Gelpern, Sean Hagan, Adnan Mazarei, Christopher G. Collins, Simon Potter, Edwin M. Truman, and Joseph E. Gagnon
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The world's leading economic powers must cooperate more to combat the health and economic shocks resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. In a new PIIE Briefing, Peterson Institute experts outline how collective action by the Group of Twenty (G20) nations can make a difference. The PIIE agenda includes removal of trade barriers impeding the flow of medical supplies and food, and more money for research, testing, and disease control, especially for debt-burdened low-income countries. The World Bank and the World Health Organization need more resources to relieve suffering, and the International Monetary Fund must step up to stabilize the world financial system.
Topic:
Economics, Health, World Health Organization, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, G20, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:
Global Focus

19. Global Peace Index 2020: Measuring peace in a complex world

Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
This is the 14th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness. Produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. This report presents the most comprehensive data driven analysis to-date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies. The GPI covers 99.7 per cent of the world’s population, using 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources, and measures the state of peace across three domains: the level of Societal Safety and Security; the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict; and the degree of Militarisation. In addition to presenting the findings from the 2020 GPI, this year’s report includes an analysis of the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on peace, including Positive Peace: the attitudes, institutions and structures that create and sustain peaceful societies. It examines how the impact of the pandemic, and in particular its economic consequences will increase the risk of severe deteriorations in Positive Peace over the next few years, and also examines which countries are best placed to recover from the shock.
Topic:
Economics, Peace Studies, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, Conflict, Peace, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

20. Ecological Threat Register: Understanding ecological threats, resilience and peace

Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
This is the inaugural edition of the Ecological Threat Register (ETR), which covers 157 independent states and territories. Produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), the ETR measures ecological threats that countries are currently facing and provides projections to 2050. The ETR is unique in that it combines measures of resilience with the most comprehensive ecological data available to shed light on the countries least likely to cope with extreme ecological shocks, now and into the future. The ETR includes: population growth, water stress, food insecurity, droughts, floods, cyclones and rising temperature and sea levels. In addition, the report uses IEP’s Positive Peace framework to identify areas where resilience is unlikely to be strong enough to adapt or cope with these future shocks. The ETR clusters threats into two major domains: resource scarcity and natural disasters. The resource scarcity domain includes food insecurity, water scarcity and high population growth. The natural disaster domain measures the threat of floods, droughts, cyclones, sea level rise and rising temperatures.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Environment, Global Security, Peace, and Ecology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

21. Global Terrorism Index 2020: Measuring the impact of terrorism

Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
The GTI report is produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) using data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and other sources. Data for the GTD is collected and collated by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) at the University of Maryland. The GTD contains over 170,000 terrorist incidents for the period 1970 to 2019. In 2019, deaths from terrorism fell for the fifth consecutive year, after peaking in 2014. The total number of deaths fell by 15.5 per cent to 13,826. The fall in deaths was mirrored by a reduction in the impact of terrorism, with 103 countries recording an improvement on their GTI score, compared to 35 that recorded a deterioration. The full GTI score takes into account not only deaths, but also incidents, injuries, and property damage from terrorism, over a five-year period. The largest fall in the impact of terrorism occurred in Afghanistan, which recorded 1,654 fewer deaths from terrorism in 2018, a 22.4 per cent decrease from the prior year. However, Afghanistan remains the country most impacted by terrorism, after overtaking Iraq in 2018.
Topic:
Political Violence, Economics, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and Peace
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Global Focus

22. Positive Peace Report 2020: Analysing the factors that sustain peace

Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
Peace is the prerequisite for the survival of humanity in the 21st century. Without peace, it will not be possible to achieve the levels of trust, cooperation and inclusiveness necessary to solve these challenges, let alone empower international institutions and organisations necessary to address them. In the past, peace may have been the domain of the altruistic but in the current century it is clearly in everyone’s self-interest. Without an understanding of the factors that create and sustain peaceful societies, it will not be possible to develop the programmes, create the policies or understand the resources required to build peaceful and resilient societies. Positive Peace provides a framework to understand and address the many complex challenges the world faces. Positive Peace is transformational in that it is a cross-cutting facilitator of progress, making it easier for businesses to sell, entrepreneurs and scientists to innovate, individuals to produce and governments to effectively regulate. In addition to the absence of violence, Positive Peace is also associated with many other social characteristics that are considered desirable, including stronger economic outcomes, higher resilience, better measures of wellbeing, higher levels of inclusiveness and more sustainable environmental performance.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, Peace Studies, Peacekeeping, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

23. Water Conflict Pathways and Peacebuilding Strategies

Author:
David Michel
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
No modern states have ever declared war over water. In fact, nations dependent on shared water sources have collaborated far more frequently than they have clashed. Nevertheless, global surveys have counted over forty hostile, militarized international actions over water—from riots to border skirmishes to larger battles—in the first six decades after World War II. This report reviews the pathways that link water resource pressures to conflict risks and describes how peacebuilding strategies such as water diplomacy can help mitigate these risks.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, Natural Resources, Water, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

24. Strengthening the Economic Arsenal: Bolstering the Deterrent and Signaling Effects of Sanctions

Author:
Elizabeth Rosenberg and Jordan Tama
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
Economic sanctions have become the tool of choice for U.S. policymakers to influence international affairs. On issues ranging from nuclear nonproliferation to human rights, the United States typically imposes sanctions with the goal of inducing a government to change its behavior. Yet sanctions often have more potential to deter unwanted actions than to compel policy reversals, and the greatest impact of sanctions sometimes involves the signals they convey about likely future U.S. steps. Maximizing the overall effectiveness of U.S. economic pressure therefore requires concerted efforts by policymakers in the executive branch and Congress to make sanctions more effective instruments of deterrence and signaling. Doing this will also have positive knock-on effects, helping to limit the unintentional escalation of international competition and preserve the utility of sanctions as a vehicle for addressing security challenges and protecting universal norms. This report highlights several areas for action by U.S. policymakers: Make U.S. sanctions-removal assurances more credible: U.S. offers to lift sanctions on a country if it makes certain concessions send an effective signal only if the United States has a track record of backing up its commitments. In recent years, this signal has been severely weakened by U.S. failures to follow through on some significant sanctions-removal agreements, notably with Iran and Cuba.
Topic:
Economics, National Security, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Iran, Global Focus, and United States of America

25. SDG16+ Progress Report 2019: A comprehensive global audit of progress on available SDG16 indicators

Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
This report presents the third in a series of yearly reports, produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace on Sustainable Development Goal 16 (SDG16), which measures peace, justice and strong institutions. Experience from the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) shows that development is hindered by low peace and weak institutions. As such, in the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda on Sustainable Development, SDG16 is considered fundamental to achievements in many of the other SDGs.
Topic:
Economics, Millennium Development Goals, Sustainable Development Goals, Institutions, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

26. Business & Peace 2019

Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
This report analyses the relationship between the economic performance of a country and its levels of peace. The major finding of this report is that peace acts as a good predictor of a country’s future performance in a number of macroeconomic indicators. These insights can be used to better assess the expected investment potential of countries. Rather than asking what businesses can do for peace, the study differentiates itself from other work by focusing on what peace can offer businesses. Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) sees this as an important but missing step in business analysis. In order for businesses to be an actor in building peace, investors first need to see the benefits of peace to their investment decisions. The results of this work show that economic performance can be predicted by understanding the movement in the same socio-economic factors that affect peacefulness. These conditions are known as Positive Peace. The countries that improved the most in Positive Peace between 2010 and 2016 also had substantially above average economic performance.
Topic:
Economics, Peace Studies, Business, Economic Growth, Investment, Peace, and Profit
Political Geography:
Global Focus

27. Women’s Work Amid Fragility and Conflict: Key Patterns + Constraints

Author:
Yvonne Quek
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:
Investing in women’s economic empowerment is at the forefront of the global agenda, as recognized by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the United Nations secretary-general’s High-Level Panel (HLP) on Women’s Economic Empowerment, and more recently the G7 summit in Canada. The importance of women’s economic empowerment is increasingly accepted, but inclusive progress can only be made if attention is paid to empowering women in the most fragile and conflict-affected settings. Globally, about 264 million women live in the 36 countries classified as fragile and conflict affected (FCA) by the World Bank Group’s annual “Harmonized list of fragile situations.” These women face cross-cutting challenges of poverty, gender-based violence, and discriminatory norms. Evidence shows that they are more likely than men to experience displacement or have their education interrupted, and that they have less access than men to employment and income opportunities. Our analysis, while limited by data constraints, suggests that women’s economic opportunities in FCA settings are restricted on multiple fronts, with worse outcomes in countries in protracted conflict.
Topic:
Economics, Women, Conflict, and Empowerment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28. Building a Sustainable Socioeconomic System and Restructuring Economic Global Governance

Author:
Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA)
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:
Globalization has brought enormous wealth to the world as a whole, and the economic gap between developed and emerging countries has narrowed rapidly. On the other hand, the shift of the center of economic gravity to emerging economies has become more apparent since the global financial crisis, and dissatisfaction over intensifying competition with emerging economies, including the relocation of production bases overseas, has increased. In addition, the income gap has been widening in many countries due to the shock caused by the financial crisis in 2008 and the disparity of wage levels between skilled and unskilled workers driven by technological progress. Today, due in part to the negative aspects of globalization, we witness unprecedented distrust in politics and increasingly eroding social cohesion, leading to the rise of populism, protectionism and unilateralism as global trends. In particular, the United States is changing its long-established role in supporting the post-World War II liberal international order, and this has disrupted global governance and multilateralism. Furthermore, the rise of China and other emerging countries as well as the development of the digital economy require reforms to existing frameworks for economic global governance such as the WTO to address new issues.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Governance, and Socioeconomics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

29. The 5th Africa Think Tank Summit

Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
The 5th Africa Think Tank Summit opened in Accra, Ghana, on 5 April with a call on African leaders to provide “a visionary and transformative leadership” if African countries want to successfully tackle the youth unemployment issues on the continent.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Labor Issues, Youth, Capacity, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Africa and Global Focus

30. Economic recovery and inflation

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
In the last decade, advanced economies, including the euro area, experienced deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the anti-crisis policies that followed—in particular, the new financial regulations (which led to a deep decline in the money multiplier). However, there are numerous signs in both the real and financial spheres that these pressures are disappearing. The largest advanced economies are growing up to their potential, unemployment is systematically decreasing, the financial sector is more eager to lend, and its clients—to borrow. Rapidly growing asset prices signal the possibility of similar developments in other segments of the economy. In this new macroeconomic environment, central banks should cease unconventional monetary policies and prepare themselves to head off potential inflationary pressures.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Inflation, Macroeconomics, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Europe, Global Focus, and European Union

31. Global Peace Index 2018: Measuring peace in a complex world

Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
This is the twelfth edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness. Produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. This report presents the most comprehensive data-driven analysis to-date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies. The GPI covers 99.7 per cent of the world’s population, using 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources, and measures the state of peace using three thematic domains: the level of Societal Safety and Security; the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict; and the degree of Militarisation. In addition to presenting the findings from the 2018 GPI, this year’s report includes analysis of trends in Positive Peace: the attitudes, institutions, and structures that create and sustain peaceful societies. It looks at changes in indicators of Positive Peace that immediately precede deteriorations or improvements in peacefulness, which provides a framework for predictive analysis. The report also assesses the ways in which high levels of peace positively influence major macroeconomic indicators.
Topic:
Economics, Peace Studies, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

32. Drivers of Economic Growth in Africa

Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
The paper produced by the African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF) shows that investment, human capital formation, debt, and overseas development assistance drive Africa’s economic growth. It recommends paying attention to capacity, which is critical to making Africa’s growth sustainable and inclusive. Continental, regional, and national long-term growth plans require stronger capacities to improve economic governance, align national and subnational institutions, coordinate planning and financing ministries, and cultivate a culture of committed leadership to stir economies when times are hard and execute recovery plans without policy reversals. The paper provokes discussion, encourages further investigation, and defines the critical capacity challenges to tackling the growth-equality disconnect in Africa.
Topic:
Economics, Economic Growth, Capacity, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Africa and Global Focus

33. Global Peace Index 2017: Measuring peace in a complex world

Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
The GPI covers 99.7 per cent of the world’s population, using 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources and measures the state of peace using three thematic domains: the level of Societal Safety and Security; the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict; and the degree of Militarisation. In addition to presenting the findings from the 2017 GPI, this year’s report includes analysis of the Positive Peace factors that are most important for transitioning to higher levels of peace and how deteriorations in Positive Peace are linked to the rise of populism in Europe. The report also assesses the trends in peacekeeping and militarisation, including a cost/benefit analysis highlighting the positive economic benefits from early peacebuilding interventions.
Topic:
Economics, Peace Studies, Conflict, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

34. 2015 Global Peace Index

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
A statistical analysis of the state of peace in 162 countries outlining trends in peace and conflict, the economic cost of violence, and an assessment of the attitudes, structures and institutions that sustain peaceful societies.
Topic:
Economics, Conflict, Institutions, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

35. 2014 Global Terrorism Index

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
This is the second edition of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) report which provides a comprehensive summary of the key global trends and patterns in terrorism over the last 14 years beginning in 2000 and ending in 2013. Produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), the GTI is based on data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) which is collected and collated by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). The GTD is considered to be the most comprehensive dataset on terrorist activity globally and has codified over 125,000 terrorist incidents. The report summarises trends in terrorism over time and analyses its changing patterns in terms of geographic activity, methods of attack, organisations involved and the national economic and political context. The index has also been compared to a range of socio-economic indicators to determine the key factors most closely associated with terrorism. In 2013 terrorist activity increased substantially with the total number of deaths rising from 11,133 in 2012 to 17,958 in 2013, a 61 per cent increase. Over the same period, the number of countries that experienced more than 50 deaths rose from 15 to 24. This highlights that not only is the intensity of terrorism increasing, its breadth is increasing as well. Terrorism is both highly concentrated as well as a globally distributed phenomenon. Over 80 per cent of the lives lost to terrorist activity in 2013 occurred in only five countries - Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Syria. However, another 55 countries recorded one or more deaths from terrorist activity.
Topic:
Economics, Terrorism, Taliban, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Conflict, Risk, Boko Haram, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Nigeria, and Global Focus

36. The Economic Cost of Violence Containment

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
One of the major challenges in developing policies aimed at increasing peace is the difficulty of being able to accurately gauge the benefits that result from peace. Recognising this, the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) has developed a new and ground breaking methodology to estimate the cost of violence to the global economy, including calculations for 152 countries that detail the costs of thirteen different types of violence. This deeper insight into the breakdown of national costs of violence allows for better targeting of development assistance and also enables national governments to more accurately assess the costs associated with violence and the likely benefits that would flow from improvements in peace.
Topic:
Economics, Economy, Violence, Peace, and Containment
Political Geography:
Global Focus