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322. Artificial Intelligence, Technological Warfare and Changes in the World Order: China, USA and Brazil
- Author:
- Tatiana Rosito, Gabriel de Barros Torres, Ronaldo Lemos, and Yan Li
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
- Abstract:
- China is consolidating its leadership position in the development and implementation of global artificial intelligence (AI) and Brazil needs to establish structures that promote domestic science and innovation - including the adoption of 5G - in order to advance from being a great consumer of technology to being a “producer of innovation”. The document points out that the development of AI requires national efforts on different fronts - from data governance to training of human capital, which translates into greater difficulties for emerging countries such as Brazil.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Innovation, and Artificial Intelligence
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America
323. Conflict and Cooperation in Asia: Geopolitical Issues
- Author:
- Tatiana Rosito, Andy Mok, James Crabtree, and Rudolph Lohmeyer
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
- Abstract:
- The document produced by CEBRI’s Asia Program analyzes the following issues: 1) a long-term view of China's role in the region; 2) Regional and bilateral agreements in Asia/Eurasia and security policies; 3) The evolution of the role of the United States in the Indo-Pacific. The panelists pointed out that "Two questions remain open: China's ability to lead the international system and the United States' ability to build a broader agenda in addition to military issues in the Asian region".
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Geopolitics, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
324. The Increasing Role of Asia in Multilateral Development Finance
- Author:
- Rogerio Studart, Tatiana Rosito, Joachim Von Amsberg, José Pio Borges, Karin Vazquez, Leslie Maasdorp, and Martin Raiser
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
- Abstract:
- What is the role of Asian Development Banks in the multilateral financial system? This report presents the topics discussed at the XXI China Analysis Group Meeting, coordinated by Anna Jaguaribe, CEBRI Board Member. Specialists such as Leslie Maasdorp, Joachim Von Amsberg, Karin Vazquez and Martin Raiser, who work at multilateral institutions such as the World Bank, the New Development Bank (NDB) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) discussed the topic “Asia’s Increasing Role in the Multilateral Development Financial System”.
- Topic:
- Development, Finance, Multilateralism, and Banking
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
325. Asian Production Chains and Technological Decoupling: Trends, Uncertainties and Opportunities for Brazil
- Author:
- Tatiana Rosito, Gabriel de Barros Torres, Jean-Marc F. Blanchard, and Xu Sitao
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
- Abstract:
- How have multinational companies responded to growing tensions in the trade environment? CEBRI’s China Analysis Group reviews the trends related to global and regional value chains in the context of policy responses to Covid-19, as well as the impacts on Brazil. The panelists emphasized that "Global supply chains face new challenges related to their dependence on China: not only did the initial interruptions prove the need to ensure more resilience, but the spread of the epidemic across the world has raised political and strategic concerns about industrial production being highly concentrated in China, especially pharmaceutical products".
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Trade, Resilience, Global Value Chains, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Brazil, and South America
326. Brazil-China Post-Covid-19: The Digital City
- Author:
- Philip Yang, Chen Cai, Gao Changlin, Luciana Gama Muniz, Marcelo Motta, Miguel Pinto Guimarães, Renata Fraga, and Washington Fajardo
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
- Abstract:
- Bilateral cooperation emerging from post-Covid-19 transformations brings challenges and opportunities, with the strengthening of digital cities standing out. This report presents the topics discussed in the webinar "Brazil-China post-Covid-19: The Digital City", held by CEBRI in partnership with the Embassy of China. Miguel Pinto Guimarães points out that "the future is being built by China over the last two decades at a fantastic growing speed that was made possible by planning, education, and intelligence". Chen Cai states that urban planning in large centers needs to be inclusive. "The objective of the smart cities is to have equality and services for everybody living in these cities, not only for some people."
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Cities, COVID-19, and Digital Policy
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Brazil, and South America
327. Brazil-China Post-Covid-19: Food Security, Food Safety and Sustainability
- Author:
- Gabriel de Barros Torres
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
- Abstract:
- China’s agricultural development over the past decades led to incredible results, but soil degradation and lack of arable land are challenges that impact the country’s goal to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. This report presents the ideas discussed at the webinar "Brazil-China post-Covid 19: Food Security, Food Safety and Sustainability". According to participants, "improvements in living standards and consumption patterns in China create a growing demand for higher quality food products, offering opportunities for diversification in Brazilian agri-food exports."
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Food Security, Sustainability, Carbon Emissions, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Brazil, and South America
328. Japan’s Counter‐Strike Debate amid the post‐Prime Minister Abe Leadership Race
- Author:
- Yoichiro Sato
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Japanese Defense Minister Taro Kono on June 15 announced the cancellation of the planned procurement of two Aegis Ashore systems from the United States. The cancellation, which reportedly was discussed and decided only by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga in advance, left a gap in the country’s missile defense against the growing missile threats from its neighbors. The Aegis Ashore decision prompted the government to revise the National Security Strategy (NSS) within 2020. As the NSS is the basis for the National Defense Program Outline (NDPO), the latter is also being revised. Kono in the Lower House Committee on Security on July 8 testified that policy considerations by the government would include possession of “enemy base strike capabilities.” The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) subsequently formed a project team (PT) on missile defense, chaired by former Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera. The PT discussions produced by the end of July a set of recommendations inclusive of a more vaguely phrased “consideration of the ability to head off missiles in enemy territory,” which became the LDP recommendation to the government.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, National Security, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, and United States of America
329. Meet the Moment: A Call for Progressive Philanthropic Response to the Anti-Gender Movement
- Author:
- Teddy Wilson, Jenna Capeci, and Gitta Zomorodi
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Global Philanthropy Project (GPP)
- Abstract:
- In early 2020, Global Philanthropy Project worked with our member organizations and philanthropic partners to develop two related pieces of private research: 1) a report mapping the funding of the global “anti-gender ideology” or “anti-gender” movement, and 2) a report mapping the progressive philanthropic response. We offer the following public document in order to share key learning and to offer additional analysis gained in the comparison of the two reports. Additionally, we share insights based on comparing global and regional LGBTI funding data as documented in the 2017-2018 Global Resources Report: Government and Philanthropic Support for Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, and Intersex Communities. These findings offer a clear call to action: progressive movements and their philanthropic partners are being outspent by hundreds of millions of dollars each year, and the institutions providing that opposition funding have developed sophisticated and coordinated systems to learn, co-fund, and expand their influence. The philanthropic community is called to recognize the scale of the fight and to be both rigorous and creative in our response. Let us seize this remarkable opportunity to work together and engage our collective learning, spending power, and institutional knowledge to help transform the conditions of our communities. Together we can leverage the collective power that this generational crisis demands.
- Topic:
- LGBT+, Progressivism, Philanthropy, Funding, Transgender, and Gender Minorities
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, Europe, Asia, South America, Global Focus, and United States of America
330. Chinese Discourse on NATO
- Author:
- Justyna Szczudlik
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Chinese experts’ interest in NATO has been growing for a year. The reason is the debate on China that began in the Alliance last year. China treats NATO as part of its rivalry with the U.S., vindicated by Chinese analysts’ emphasis on divergences between members, critical assessments of U.S. NATO policy and their conciliatory approach to European members. The continuation of the Alliance debate on China, including recognizing it as a threat, may lead the latter to intensify efforts to widen the divisions and seek closer cooperation with Russia.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America
331. Surveillance in China during the COVID-19 Pandemic
- Author:
- Marcin Przychodniak
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Surveillance of society is one of the main tools of power in China. The COVID-19 pandemic gave the government an excuse to intensify oversight, including through the solutions previously used mainly against Uighurs in Xinjiang. The effectiveness of surveillance is important to the Chinese authorities because of possible unrest arising from economic problems connected with COVID-19. The importance of surveillance in managing the virus in China has also led to demand in democratic countries to introduce similar practices.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Economy, Surveillance, COVID-19, and Uyghurs
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
332. Consequences of Hong Kong’s National Security Law
- Author:
- Marcin Przychodniak
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The National Security Law, imposed on Hong Kong by China on 30 June, has reduced protests against China’s policy. The scale of the restrictions, including those potentially affecting foreigners, and China’s supervision over the implementation of the law have already worsened the living conditions of Hong Kong residents and functioning of foreign companies. China’s actions caused an international reaction, mainly from the UK, the U.S. and the EU. Concerned about the safety of its citizens, the EU recommends that Member States suspend their extradition agreements with Hong Kong.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, National Security, Law, European Union, and Freedom
- Political Geography:
- China, United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, Hong Kong, and United States of America
333. The Most Important Challenges in China’s Foreign Policy after the First Phase of the Pandemic
- Author:
- Marcin Przychodniak
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- China’s rivalry with the U.S. is intensifying. New American sanctions threaten, among others, Huawei’s global position. As a result of China’s aggressive foreign policy, relations with the EU and Australia have worsened, and the border conflict with India has intensified. To counter these failures and re-build their image, the Chinese authorities are trying to shift the responsibility for the problems to the U.S., strengthening anti-Western rhetoric, and presenting the world with new multilateral initiatives, such as one related to data security. With China’s foreign policy being idealogised, any successful cooperation with the EU on climate matters is unrealistic.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, European Union, Borders, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, India, Asia, and Australia
334. Through the Looking Glass: Chinese Open Source Assessments of North Korea's Ballistic Missile Capabilities
- Author:
- Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga and Scott W. Harold
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- North Korea’s ballistic missile program has long been a concern for the United States, South Korea, and Japan. Foreign researchers have increasingly leveraged advanced open source intelligence technology and cooperated across countries to track the North’s developments over the last 25 years. But one country has been left out – China. Are there open source Chinese analyses of DPRK ballistic missiles, do they align with U.S. assessments, and is there anything for other researchers to gain from reading these analyses? This report examines Chinese assessments of North Korean ballistic missile capabilities between 1998 and 2017. We find that Chinese analysts have paid growing attention to the North’s missile capabilities but are still not as attentive as Western observers, from whom they draw most of their information and analytic insights. Chinese analyses broadly mirror Western experts’ conclusions about the state of North Korea’s missile capabilities, most notably that North Korea has a functional, if not fully perfected, intercontinental-range ballistic missile (ICBM) that can reach the United States with a nuclear weapon. However, there is little original Chinese analysis that would enhance foreign experts’ preexisting understanding of DPRK missiles.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Weapons, and Research
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and North Korea
335. Looking West. The Rise of Asia in the Middle East
- Author:
- Valeria Talbot, Ugo Tramballi, Paola Magri, Zhao Jianming, Kabir Taneja, Adel Abdel Ghafar, Jeongmin Seo, Naser Al-Tamimi, Nael Shama, Sara Bazoobandi, and Anshel Pfeffer
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- As the world’s economic and political centre of gravity moves increasingly towards East and South Asia, we can expect a number of countries in these regions to devote more attention to the Middle East. The relations between East and South Asia and the Middle East have significantly expanded as a result of the global rise of Asian economic powers, particularly China, India, Japan and South Korea. Not only oil but also trade, investment, infrastructure, and tourism is the name of the business with the MENA region. Beyond energy and economic interests, questions arise about the potential geopolitical dimension of these evolving ties. What are the strategic implications of the projection of Asian countries in an unstable, fragmented and volatile region? How do they interact with each other and with other international players? Last but not least, will the Covid-19 pandemic be a game changer in (re)shaping relations in the future?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Oil, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Geopolitics, Business, and Soft Power
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Europe, Iran, Middle East, India, Israel, Asia, South Korea, Egypt, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Gulf Nations
336. U.S. and China Climate Goals: Scenarios for 2030 and Mid-Century
- Author:
- Asia Society Policy Institute and Climate Analytics
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- In September 2020, President Xi Jinping announced new goals for China to reach carbon neutrality before 2060, as well as to strengthen its existing 2030 commitments under the Paris Agreement. With these announcements, China has signaled a move to join the European Union—as well as the United States under a Biden administration—in leading long-term climate action among the big emitters. Our analysis demonstrates that if China’s new long-term goal covers all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and not just carbon dioxide (CO₂), this could bring the country within reach of the emissions reductions required by mid-century for its actions to be in line with the Paris Agreement’s long-term goal of limiting average global temperature increases to 1.5°C. However, if President Xi’s announcement is only meant to cover CO₂, then China would need to achieve carbon neutrality around 2050 for this to be compatible with the Paris Agreement.1 Either way, China’s short-term actions will also need to be quickly brought into line with its new long-term trajectory. This includes doing more than simply peaking CO₂ emissions before 2030 as President Xi foreshadowed. Instead, our analysis demonstrates that China would need to peak its emissions by 2025 and rapidly reduce these thereafter to be compatible with the Paris Agreement. This also implies a need for significant adjustments to the other quantifiable targets identified in China’s existing Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement and the ramping up of action to achieve these. Reducing coal-fired power generation quickly and phasing it out entirely by 2040 would be an important step toward achieving this early peak and rapid reductions. Under the Trump administration, the United States has reneged on past climate action promises and rolled back existing policies resulting in an increase in emissions compared with the Obama administration. As a result, this report highlights that even under a Biden administration, the United States is likely to miss its previous 2025 target under the Paris Agreement. However, a Biden administration means that the United States now has the potential to reverse the Trump administration’s rollbacks and make a significant contribution to closing the Paris Agreement’s ambition gap in a new 2030 NDC. Indeed, by taking the initiative to reboot U.S. action in line with the Energy and Climate Package touted by President-elect Biden during his campaign, including its goal to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, U.S. emissions could be reduced substantially by 2030.2 For example, our analysis indicates that if the Biden campaign’s policies were to be fully implemented with the support of Congress (see below), and continue to be supported by strong subnational action, they could bridge more than half of the U.S. share of the global ambition gap by 2030 through reducing emissions by up to 38%–54% below 2005 levels (GHGs, including land use, land-use change and forestry)3. This would also reduce estimates for average global temperature increases in 2100 by 0.1°C, on top of the 0.2°C–0.3°C reduction achieved by China’s recent announcement. As this report shows, President-elect Biden’s plan to decarbonize the U.S. electricity system by 2035 would represent by far the biggest contribution to this effort and is in line with the Paris Agreement temperature goal. It would result in savings of ~1,350 MtCO₂ out of a total abatement potential of ~1,810 MtCO₂e [1,630–2,100] in 2030 across his Energy and Climate Package. However, this report also estimates that potentially only half of this potential could still be achieved through Executive Authority in the event of Congress not supporting action, although this estimate carries a large degree of uncertainty. We also outline how additional emissions reductions could come from action in other areas, including freight transport and industry—with the electrification of end-use sectors and green hydrogen important opportunities to achieve this. If the United States and China fully implement these ambitious goals and are able to achieve net-zero GHG emissions around mid-century, it would be a monumental step forward toward bringing the Paris Agreement goals within reach. It would also mean that for the first time more than 60% of the world’s emissions are in countries with a clear pathway to decarbonize their economies. However, achieving the goals will require bold action in all sectors of the economy, with an early coal phaseout being paramount for both countries.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Carbon Emissions, Paris Agreement, and Decarbonization
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
337. The Chinese Communist Party’s coercive diplomacy
- Author:
- Fergus Hanson, Emilia Currey, and Tracy Beattie
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is increasingly deploying coercive diplomacy against foreign governments and companies. Coercive diplomacy isn’t well understood, and countries and companies have struggled to develop an effective toolkit to push back against and resist it. This report tracks the CCP’s use of coercive diplomacy over the past 10 years, recording 152 cases of coercive diplomacy affecting 27 countries as well as the European Union. The data shows that there’s been a sharp escalation in these tactics since 2018. The regions and countries that recorded the most instances of coercive diplomacy over the last decade include Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand and East Asia. The CCP’s coercive tactics can include economic measures (such as trade sanctions, investment restrictions, tourism bans and popular boycotts) and non-economic measures (such as arbitrary detention, restrictions on official travel and state-issued threats). These efforts seek to punish undesired behaviour and focus on issues including securing territorial claims, deploying Huawei’s 5G technology, suppressing minorities in Xinjiang, blocking the reception of the Dalai Lama and obscuring the handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. China is the largest trading partner for nearly two-thirds of the world’s countries, and its global economic importance gives it significant leverage. The impacts of coercive diplomacy are exacerbated by the growing dependency of foreign governments and companies on the Chinese market. The economic, business and security risks of that dependency are likely to increase if the CCP can continue to successfully use this form of coercion.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, Economy, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
338. The flipside of China’s central bank digital currency
- Author:
- Samantha Hoffman, John Garnaut, Kayla Izenman, Matthew Johnson, Alexandra Pascoe, Fergus Ryan, and Elise Thomas
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- China’s central bank digital currency, known as ‘DC/EP’ (Digital Currency / Electronic Payment), is rapidly progressing and, if successful, would have major international implications that have not yet been widely considered by policymakers. DC/EP would have ramifications for governments, investors, and companies, including China’s own tech champions. It has the potential to create the world’s largest centralised repository of financial transactions data and, while it may address some financial governance challenges, such as money laundering, it would also create unprecedented opportunities for surveillance. The initial impact of a successful DC/EP project will be primarily domestic, but little thought has been given to the longer term and global implications. DC/EP could be exported overseas via the digital wallets of Chinese tourists, students and businesspeople. Over time, it is not far-fetched to speculate that the Chinese party-state will incentivise or even mandate that foreigners also use DC/EP for certain categories of cross-border RMB transactions as a condition of accessing the Chinese marketplace. DC/EP intersects with China’s ambitions to shape global technological and financial standards, for example, through the promotion of RMB internationalisation and fintech standards-setting along sites of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In the long term, therefore, a successful DC/EP could greatly expand the party-state’s ability to monitor and shape economic behaviour well beyond the borders of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy, Central Bank, and Digital Currency
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
339. The influence environment: A survey of Chinese-language media in Australia
- Author:
- Alex Joske, Lin Li, Alex Pascoe, and Nathan Attrill
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- In the past two decades, Australia’s Chinese-language media landscape has undergone fundamental changes that have come at a cost to quality, freedom of speech, privacy and community representation. The diversity of Australia’s Chinese communities, which often trace their roots to Hong Kong, Southeast Asia and Taiwan as well as the People’s Republic of China, isn’t well reflected in the media sector. Persistent efforts by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to engage with and influence Chinese language media in Australia far outmatch the Australian Government’s work in the same space. A handful of outlets generally offer high-quality coverage of a range of issues. However, CCP influence affects all media. It targets individual outlets while also manipulating market incentives through advertising, coercion and WeChat. Four of the 24 Australian media companies studied in this report show evidence of CCP ownership or financial support.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Media, Social Media, and Cyberspace
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
340. China’s role in the Sustainable Development Agenda: Considerations for Norway
- Author:
- Hans Jørgen Gåsemyr
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- China’s role as an international development actor is growing, with real and increasing potential to impact Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). On some issues, Chinese initiatives align well with Norwegian interests, but China’s approach to development also diverges on some key practices and norms. While Chinese international efforts meet mixed reactions, Norway should stake out its own course for when and how to engage with China over SDGs.
- Topic:
- Development, International Organization, United Nations, and Sustainable Development Goals
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Norway, and Asia