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131. THE SPECIAL POLICE IN ETHIOPIA

Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:
Like many federal and devolved systems, Ethiopia has both federal and regional security forces. In the last fifteen years, however, Ethiopia’s regional states have established regional special police forces, in addition to the regular regional state police. Established first in Ethiopia’s Somali region in 2007 to conduct counter-insurgency operations and riot control, special police quickly spread to all other regions of Ethiopia. The role and status of special police forces in Ethiopia remain contested. Resembling paramilitary forces, the regional special police units are well armed and receive military training. They are rapidly growing in size and have successfully recruited senior (former) army officers into their ranks. Special police forces have become deeply involved in Ethiopia’s interregional conflicts and border disputes, most notably in the current conflict in Tigray. They have even been involved in international operations in Somalia and Sudan and internal coup attempts. They have also been linked to severe human rights abuses. While federal and regional governments are empowered to establish their respective police forces, no specific legal provision deals with the special police force. As trust in the federal government waned in many regional capitals, states have linked the mandate of their special police forces with self-government. Still, special police have overstepped that boundary and engaged in activities, such as international border security and settling interregional disputes, that fall within the exclusive mandate of the federal government and federal forces. This report explores the origins and growth of the special police and its roles in current Ethiopia. It investigates the force’s constitutional and legal ambiguity and places the special police within the broader debate over Ethiopian federalism. Finally, it suggests several models that Ethiopia could adopt to regulate its proliferating special police forces. A failure to do so may have dire consequences for the future of the country.
Topic:
Human Rights, Regional Cooperation, International Security, Police, Legal Sector, and Human Rights Violations
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

132. FAKE NEWS MISINFORMATION AND HATE SPEECH IN ETHIOPIA: A VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:
​Fake news, misinformation, and hate speech have thrived in the Ethiopian media ecosystem, and particularly online. This is strongly correlated with significant, tragic, real-world consequences, exacerbated pre-existing tensions, and contributed to violence and conflict. To date, the Government of Ethiopia’s response to combating the spread of fake news, misinformation, and hate speech has been, by necessity, heavy-handed, with the go-to response to escalation being to turn off the internet for the entire country. The vulnerability assessment aims to outline an approach and framework to improve the understanding of fake news, misinformation, and hate speech in Ethiopia, to develop a more nuanced and tailored approach to addressing a real national challenge. While this study is preliminary and indicative, drawing on a relatively small sample size, it is hoped that it can be illustrative and used to improve the national conversation regarding the federal response to fake news, misinformation, and hate speech. Still, it does not claim to be and should not be considered the final word on the matter. The assessment found that Ethiopia’s media ecosystem’s weaknesses have made it vulnerable to fake news, misinformation, and hate speech. Some of the driving factors are undoubtedly historical, including the weak state of private media in Ethiopia, the critical role of the Ethiopian diaspora in media ownership, and the proliferation and wild rise in popularity of entertainment-news page services Facebook and Twitter. The report proposes a pro-active and risk-based approach, which identifies likely and potentially fake news, misinformation, and hate speech flashpoints and lays out the actions that will be required to mitigate them.
Topic:
Communications, Mass Media, Media, News Analysis, Hate Speech, Disinformation, and Misinformation
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

133. RELIGION, ETHNICITY, AND CHARGES OF EXTREMISM: THE DYNAMICS OF INTER-COMMUNAL VIOLENCE IN ETHIOPIA

Author:
Terje Østebø, Jörg Haustein, Fasika Gedif, Muhammad Jemal Kadir, Kedir Jemal, and Yihenew Alemu Tesfaye
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:
In recent months, the conflict in Tigray has dominated most analyses of Ethiopian politics. The scale of that crisis makes this understandable, but it remains important to keep analysing the inter-communal tensions and conflicts lines that had already emerged all over the country before the fighting in Tigray and continue to persist in parallel. This report addresses in particular the question of religiously motivated violence and its relationship with ethnic conflict. It analyses in detail two specific instances of inter-communal conflict that occurred in Mota (Amhara region) in December 2019 and in Shashemene (Oromia region) in July 2020. Both incidents might be seen as archetypical cases for inter-communal tensions and conflict motivated by religious (Mota) and ethnic (Shashemene) difference. Yet as the report will go on to show, these two aspects of collective identity formation are not clearly separate in Ethiopia but overlap and interact with one another in complex ways. This renders moot all mono-dimensional analyses of inter-communal conflict in Ethiopia, especially as different narratives compete in the interpretation of violence and its causes. Socio-economic variables undoubtedly play a role in defining the wider context, but the formation of communities, the genesis of conflict, and the circulation of interpretative narratives typically rest on references to ethnicity and religion. Given the current emphasis on ethnicity in Ethiopian politics, the role of religious affiliation is often overlooked, yet it is here that the accusation of “extremism” is most frequently and most consequentially raised. The report engages critically with such accusations and the corollary notion of rising religious extremism in Ethiopia. It will show, moreover, how the mere expectation or accusation of extremism has sufficed to generate inter-communal violence and deepened a climate of mistrust.
Topic:
Race, Violent Extremism, Ethnicity, Violence, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

134. Climate-related Security Risks and Peacebuilding in Mali

Author:
Farah Hegazi, Florian Krampe, and Elizabeth Smith
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Climate-related security risks are changing the security landscape in which multilateral peacebuilding efforts are taking place. Following a similar assessment of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia in 2019, this SIPRI Policy Paper offers another glimpse into the future of peacebuilding in the context of climate change, this time by providing an in-depth assessment of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA). Climate change in Mali has affected natural resource-based livelihoods and contributed to undermining human security in a context of conflict and weak governance. Furthermore, the compound character of climate change is an increasingly strong factor that reshapes social, political and economic contexts, thereby potentially amplifying local grievances and marginalization. These interactions all contribute to hindering MINUSMA’s efforts to support peace and stability in Mali. MINUSMA, however, explicitly and implicitly responds to climate-related security risks. For example, its divisions address natural resource-related conflicts, supporting peace and stability in a context where natural resources are often crucial to livelihoods and human security. MINUSMA also works to reduce its own potential negative environmental impact. Nevertheless, it faces three main limitations in addressing climate-related security risks: prioritization of the issue vis-à-vis the mandate, limited capacity within the mission, and coordination challenges between the mission and the UN Country Team. By analysing how climate change affects MINUSMA’s mandate, and the mission’s responses to it, the insight offered in this paper suggests the need for increased knowledge, training and prioritization surrounding climate security. This applies not only to MINUSMA, but also to other missions located in areas of high climate change exposure, and more generally to the broader UN system.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, United Nations, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

135. Nigeria: National Small Arms and Light Weapons Survey

Author:
Small Arms Survey
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
This report documents the findings of the first ever national assessment of small arms prevalence and impacts in Nigeria. The National Small Arms and Light Weapons Survey (NSALWS), implemented in 2016 by Nigeria’s Presidential Committee on Small Arms and Light Weapons (PRESCOM), was conducted to better understand the prevalence, proliferation, perception, use and impacts of small arms in Nigeria. The Small Arms Survey supported PRESCOM on survey methodology and analysis, and with the provision of training on survey methods specific to small arms. Nigeria: National Small Arms and Light Weapons Survey reveals that, at the time of the survey, Nigerians considered firearms-fueled armed violence a significant problem, although variations in threat perceptions show that some regions and communities were more affected than others. The survey also found that Nigerians did not feel the need to own weapons, and did not want one, even though security in their communities was poor. Furthermore, respondents felt that acquiring a firearm was difficult. While direct purchase was the most commonly reported source of small arms, the general public did not know exactly where firearms came from. Diversion and illicit supply, as well as craft production, also appeared to be important. Finally, based on survey responses, it is quite clear that Nigerians expected stronger efforts at arms control, including through civilian disarmament. They asserted that the most effective way to limit arms proliferation is to address structural conditions that cause poverty and insecurity.
Topic:
Regulation, Weapons, Trafficking, Disarmament, and Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

136. Women’s knowledge on the seasonality and causes of child malnutrition in Marsabit county, Kenya

Author:
John Burns, Andy Catley, and Hussein Mahmoud
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
This report presents the results of a participatory analysis of the causes and seasonality of malnutrition in children and mothers in North Horr and Loiyangalani wards in Marsabit county, Kenya. Although North Horr and Loiyangalani areas differ in terms of livelihoods, culture, and ethnicity, similar findings emerged from both locations. Overall, women positioned the problem of malnutrition within a context of changing and gendered livelihoods, marked seasonality of livelihood systems, and physical remoteness with limited infrastructure or public services. These factors combine in ways which place women and children at a very high risk of acute malnutrition.
Topic:
Food, Hunger, Humanitarian Crisis, Knowledge Production, and Malnutrition
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

137. Early Warning and Early Action for Increased Resilience of Livelihoods in IGAD Region

Author:
Daniel Maxwell, Erin Lentz, Cori Simmons, and Gregory Gottlieb
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
Multiple calls have been issued for better preparedness, early warning, and, above all, early action to prevent hunger and malnutrition, reduce the scale of food insecurity, improve resilience, and reduce the amount of money spent on responding to crises every year. Nowhere have these challenges been greater than in East Africa. A recent study on food security information systems in East Africa noted that despite years of attention, the link from early warning to early action is still not as effective as it could be. And although conflict is a common driver of humanitarian crisis, conflict early warning and action remains especially weak. As traditional EW-EA systems struggle to meet the challenges, new initiatives are attempting to address the challenges using advanced machine learning and predictive analytics. But part of the issue is the sheer volume of information and how well it informs coherent action. Therefore, our primary recommendation is to “reverse engineer” the EW-EA system. First, consider the actions that can be taken to mitigate known or expected shocks, and then derive the information needs (including PA) from those considerations. This study was commissioned by the FAO Subregional Office for Eastern Africa to examine the links between early warning and early action (EW-EA) in East Africa. This study reviews current EW-EA systems in East Africa to identify the key constraints to improving early warning and early action, as well as practices and emerging initiatives relying on predictive analytics and machine learning, to ensure early warning systems suit the needs of decisionmakers and enable early action for improved resilience in the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) region.
Topic:
Hunger, Humanitarian Crisis, Resilience, and Malnutrition
Political Geography:
Africa

138. Women’s knowledge on the seasonality and causes of child malnutrition in Isiolo county, Kenya

Author:
Hussein Mahmoud, John Burns, and Andy Catley
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
This report presents the results of a participatory analysis of the causes and seasonality of malnutrition in Borana children and mothers in Cherab and Chari wards in Isiolo county, Kenya. The field work was carried out in 16 communities that are primarily engaged in livestock production, with a focus on cattle and small ruminants.
Topic:
Women, Humanitarian Crisis, Knowledge Production, and Malnutrition
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

139. Livelihood Components of Durable Solutions for IDPs

Author:
Abdirahman Ahmed Muhumed, Elizabeth Stites, Elizabeth Alexion, and Delia Burns
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
In early 2021, the Somali Region hosted 844,642 IDPs, almost entirely Somali in ethnicity. Conflict and climate shocks have been the primary drivers of this displacement. Due to livelihood loss and on-going conflicts, many of the displaced cannot return to their places of origin. This assessment examines three ways in which national and international actors have sought to implement long-term, “durable,” solutions to internal displacement in Ethiopia’s Somali Region: resettlement, relocation, and local integration. Each example of a durable solution (resettlement, relocation, and local integration) assessed in this report can be considered partially successful in relation to livelihood aspects. The most promising aspects are the extent of local assistance provided to the displaced and the positive relations between displaced people and host communities. On-going challenges and obstacles to long-term durability include limited access to key livelihood inputs, especially land; strain upon shared resources and services; the poverty of the host communities, making long-term support to the displaced unlikely; limited financial resources; inadequate planning and sharing of information with involved parties; and lack of appropriate policies to ensure conflict mitigation, drought mitigation, and support to existing and alternative livelihoods.
Topic:
Ethnicity, Displacement, Internal Displacement, and Identity
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

140. Using participatory epidemiology to investigate the causes and seasonality of acute malnutrition in Marsabit and Isiolo counties, northern Kenya: methods and experiences

Author:
John Burns, Andy Catley, and Hussein Mahmoud
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
This report describes the methods used and experiences from a community-level analysis of the causes and seasonality malnutrition in selected locations in Marsabit and Isiolo counties in Kenya.
Topic:
Food, Humanitarian Crisis, Participation, and Malnutrition
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa