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Begin New Search Content Type Special Report Publishing Institution The Polish Institute of International Affairs

101. Russia’s Arctic Policy

Author:
Agnieszka Legucka
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Russia views the Arctic as a contested area with the U.S. and a place of competition with China. It regards any loss of its dominant position as the most important challenge in the Arctic region. To counteract it, Russia develops energy, military, and logistics infrastructure in the region. Although the role of transport in the Arctic, along the Northern Sea Route (NSR), is limited for now, the increased Russian military presence in the region is already a challenge for the security of NATO countries.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Arctic, and United States of America

102. Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Ukraine’s Economy

Author:
Daniel Szeligowski
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Ukrainian economy will face a recession in 2020, the scale of which will depend on the fluid pandemic situation at home and abroad. Macro-financial assistance from the IMF and the EU will be crucial to stabilise the economy. To begin a rapid economic recovery, Ukraine needs structural reforms, but implementation of them is unlikely.
Topic:
Reform, Finance, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Eastern Europe

103. The Impact of COVID-19 on India’s Economy and International Standing

Author:
Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Despite the government’s restrictive preventive measures, India has emerged as one of the countries most affected by COVID-19, and it has yet to reach the peak of infections. The pandemic has ignited the most serious economic crisis in the country’s history, worsened India’s investment attractiveness, and constrained resources that would otherwise help it pursue a greater international role. The economic crisis also undermines the country’s international image, boosted by the quick and decisive response to the pandemic in its initial phase. At the same time, the economic problems and the continued fight against the pandemic will encourage the authorities to deepen cooperation with the EU in public health, the economy, and security.
Topic:
Economics, Financial Crisis, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

104. The Pandemic as an Impulse for the Development of New Technologies in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
A deep recession is projected for Sub-Saharan Africa in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the market for new technologies providing solutions helpful during the health crisis, is developing dynamically. In the medium term, the research and development sector will gain importance and become attractive for investments, also for Polish companies.
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, Research, Business, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, Poland, and Sub-Saharan Africa

105. Ukrainian Labour Migration to the EU During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
Maria Piechowska
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
According to estimates by the International Organization for Migration, more than 5 million of the 42 million citizens of Ukraine remain abroad, the vast majority of them for economic purposes. The most significant direction of Ukrainian labour migration is the European Union. The COVID-19 pandemic has not resulted in massive returns of migrants to Ukraine—only about 10% of those already abroad in February decided to take this step. However, the pandemic made it more difficult for Ukrainians to leave the country in the spring-summer period when the demand for work in EU countries is usually the highest.
Topic:
Migration, Labor Issues, European Union, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

106. The Assumptions of the New U.S. “Defense Space Strategy”

Author:
Mateusz Piotrowski
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In response to the growing threats from China and Russia to U.S. security in space and the increased importance of space infrastructure for its civil and military sectors, American authorities began reorganising the armed forces. This includes adoption of the “Defense Space Strategy”, which places the newest branch of the armed forces—Space Force—in the U.S. defence planning. The strengthening of military cooperation with allies in this area, as declared in the document, is an opportunity for Poland to acquire experience in the protection of satellite systems, which are planned for the needs of the Polish armed forces.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, and Space
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and United States of America

107. France and African Debt: Testing Multilateralism

Author:
Łukasz Maślanka
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Following an increase of COVID-19 cases in Africa, France wants to present itself as the main advocate of a humanitarian aid plan and the broadly discussed proposal of mass debt relief for the continent. In its political dimension, the move highlights the international role of France and the EU. It can also contribute to decreasing the dependence of African states on China. If it succeeds, President Emmanuel Macron can go forward with his initiative to reform the global governance system, especially the UN, and to emphasize the importance of the EU’s Southern Neighbourhood Policy.
Topic:
Debt, Humanitarian Aid, Multilateralism, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and France

108. The Importance of Foreign Military Bases for Russia

Author:
Anna Maria Dyner
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Outside its borders, Russia has military bases in the post-Soviet space and in Syria. The main goal is to increase Russian military security and political influence in countries in which these bases are located. Despite economic difficulties related to the drop in oil and gas prices and the costs of the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia will maintain its network of bases, which it considers an important element of influence.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Military Affairs, COVID-19, and Post Cold War
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, and Syria

109. Surveillance in China during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Surveillance of society is one of the main tools of power in China. The COVID-19 pandemic gave the government an excuse to intensify oversight, including through the solutions previously used mainly against Uighurs in Xinjiang. The effectiveness of surveillance is important to the Chinese authorities because of possible unrest arising from economic problems connected with COVID-19. The importance of surveillance in managing the virus in China has also led to demand in democratic countries to introduce similar practices.
Topic:
Human Rights, Economy, Surveillance, COVID-19, and Uyghurs
Political Geography:
China and Asia

110. Disinformation from China and Russia during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
Agnieszka Legucka and Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has become another opportunity for China and Russia to conduct disinformation campaigns. Activities include overt and covert propaganda directed at the EU, NATO and the United States. Both countries are seeking to strengthen their international position, primarily in relations with the EU and the United States. The disinformation activities of Russia and China also result from the desire to disrupt European cooperation, which is a challenge for Poland.
Topic:
NATO, European Union, COVID-19, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Poland, and United States of America

111. Greece’s Eastern Mediterranean Policy

Author:
Maciej Pawłowski
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Greece aims to strengthen its political and economic position in the Eastern Mediterranean, which was weakened after the economic crisis of 2008–2013. Among the ways to regain this stature are through access to natural resources and participation in regional alliances. The Greeks perceive Turkey as the main threat to achieving these goals. It is in the EU’s interest to foster better relations between the two countries and to find compromise in disputes between them.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Alliance, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Greece, and Mediterranean

112. Dangerous Liaisons: The Alternative for Germany and Right-wing Extremism

Author:
Lidia Gibadło
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Until recently, links between the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and right-wing extremist organizations have not weakened the party’s record. Yet, after anti-Semitic and racist attacks, its image as a radical party is becoming an increasingly serious obstacle in attracting new voters and overcoming political isolation. Lack of prospects for participation in government and the fact that some of the grouping are under the surveillance of counter-intelligence may lead to a loss of votes and gradual marginalisation of the AfD.
Topic:
Security, Domestic Politics, Far Right, and Political Extremism
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

113. Economic Challenges for Belarus

Author:
Anna Maria Dyner
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Overdependence on cheap Russian energy resources, the COVID-19 pandemic, and a lack of reform are the biggest challenges that could lead to the collapse of the Belarusian economy. Russia may use economic problems to make Belarus more dependent on it. Poland, other EU countries and the U.S. can support the Belarusian authorities in diversifying sources of crude oil supplies, negotiations on joining the World Trade Organisation, and possible efforts to obtain a loan from the International Monetary Fund.
Topic:
Debt, Economy, Crisis Management, Trade, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Poland, Belarus, and United States of America

114. The Estonia-Russia Border Dispute

Author:
Kinga Raś and Rafał Tarnogórski
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The centennial of the Treaty of Tartu between the Republic of Estonia and Soviet Russia in February 2020 did not end the border dispute. In 1944, the Soviet authorities changed the borders and since then, 5% of the territory of pre-war Estonia remains under Russia’s control. It argues the change was legally justified and that the region has not shown any willingness to adjust its borders back to those of the interwar period. Estonia, though, aims to assert its statehood, and some elites are directly raising claims. This means the continuation of the stalemate over the border, which will negatively impact bilateral relations.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, and Borders
Political Geography:
Russia and Estonia

115. Migration Trends in Morocco: Implication for the European Union

Author:
Katarzyna Michalska
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The increase in irregular migration from Sub-Saharan Africa and the Sahel has resulted in the transformation of Morocco from an emigration-only country into a transit and immigration one. EU support for Morocco focuses on the protection of the country’s borders, controlling the migration flow to Europe, and the implementation of readmission agreements. The EU also provides financial and technological support and helps to reform immigration policy. Due to the unstable humanitarian situation and growing number of refugees in Morocco, this cooperation should also include the Sahel region.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, and Refugees
Political Geography:
Europe, Morocco, Sahel, and Sub-Saharan Africa

116. The Political Significance of the Trump Israeli-Palestinian Peace Plan

Author:
Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The plan announced by U.S. President Donald Trump will not break the deadlock in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. For all involved parties, the plan will remain a point of reference for political and diplomatic actions in the coming months. The key factors of future developments would be Israel’s decision on the possible annexation of parts of the West Bank and, in the long-run, the outcome of this fall’s U.S. presidential elections.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, Peace, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

117. Consequences of Hong Kong’s National Security Law

Author:
Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The National Security Law, imposed on Hong Kong by China on 30 June, has reduced protests against China’s policy. The scale of the restrictions, including those potentially affecting foreigners, and China’s supervision over the implementation of the law have already worsened the living conditions of Hong Kong residents and functioning of foreign companies. China’s actions caused an international reaction, mainly from the UK, the U.S. and the EU. Concerned about the safety of its citizens, the EU recommends that Member States suspend their extradition agreements with Hong Kong.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Law, European Union, and Freedom
Political Geography:
China, United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, Hong Kong, and United States of America

118. The Impact of COVID-19 on the Terrorist Threat in the EU

Author:
Arkadiusz Legieć
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
According to Europol data, in 2019 the decline in the number of attacks and the activity of terrorist organisations continued in the EU, with the exception of extreme right-wing groups. The COVID-19 pandemic has limited the possibilities for terrorist organisations to operate. In the short term, the terrorist threat to the EU will continue to decline. However, terrorists will adapt to the new conditions. As a result of the pandemic, structural problems in Europe’s neighbourhood will worsen and an economic crisis is expected within the EU itself. Such conditions may favuor the activity of extremists (both Islamic and far-right), increasing the threat of terrorism for the EU in the long term.
Topic:
Terrorism, European Union, COVID-19, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:
Europe

119. A New Jihadist Front in Mozambique

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In August, ISIS-linked Muslim rebels in Mozambique seized the strategic port of Mocímboa da Praia, located near gas installations in the Cabo Delgado province. The extremist offensive may spoil development opportunities in a country that is one of Poland’s main trading partners in Africa.
Topic:
Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, Trade, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Africa, Poland, and Mozambique

120. Ukraine’s Response to the Political Crisis in Belarus

Author:
Maciej Zaniewicz
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Alexander Lukashenka has so far been seen in Ukraine as a guarantor of Belarus’ independence from Russia. Therefore, the Ukrainian authorities initially avoided condemning the electoral fraud to avoid weakening the Belarusian president. That have since tightened their positions in response to Lukashenka’s accusation that Ukraine helped initiate the protests. However, Ukraine will not become actively involved in resolving the crisis in Belarus and will limit itself to reacting to Belarusian provocations and supporting EU policy towards that country.
Topic:
International Relations, Crisis Management, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Belarus