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Begin New Search Content Type Special Report Publishing Institution The Polish Institute of International Affairs Publication Year within 25 Years Publication Year within 5 Years Publication Year within 10 Years

1. The Impact of Finland's and Sweden's Accession to NATO on the Security of the Alliance

Author:
Wojciech Lorenz
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO will increase the Alliance’s ability to conduct collective defence missions in the Baltic Sea region and to deter Russia. Therefore, the gains from the enlargement of the Alliance will far exceed the costs, which may include the need to create a new command responsible for missions on the Northern Flank of NATO. However, Türkiye’s opposition may prolong the accession process and increase the risk associated with the intensification of Russia’s provocative actions against the candidates.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Alliance, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, Finland, North America, and Sweden

2. Sahel States Opt for Negotiations with Jihadists

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The inability of local and international forces to defeat the jihadists in the Sahel region has led to grassroots initiatives to reach an understanding with them. In Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, preparations are also underway for similar talks by governments, with the hope of including some extremists in the political mainstream. This may help with stabilising the volatile situation, but it carries the risk of strengthening the influence of the radicals.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, Negotiation, Islamism, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso

3. Difficult Debate on an Intellectual Property Protection Waiver to Fight COVID-19

Author:
Szymon Zaręba
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The negotiations currently taking place at the WTO on the suspension of, among others, patent protection for vaccines and medicines against COVID-19, are at a standstill. This creates a risk of widening the rift between developing countries, which mostly support the idea, and some developed countries, which oppose it. It also makes it more difficult to increase the supply of patented items, particularly of vaccines, to an extent undermining other efforts by countries and international organisations to contain the pandemic. It is in the interest of Poland and the EU to overcome this impasse.
Topic:
Intellectual Property/Copyright, European Union, Vaccine, COVID-19, and WTO
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and Global Focus

4. Humanitarian Catastrophe in Afghanistan: A Crisis by Choice

Author:
Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
One of the world’s most serious humanitarian crises is taking place in Afghanistan and it is largely the result of flawed assumptions of Western policy following the Taliban’s seizure of power. The West’s suspension of development aid has led to the collapse of the economy and to hunger for millions of Afghans. Instead of forcing the Taliban to respect human rights, the actions will have the opposite effect—a humanitarian catastrophe, mass migration, and a failed state. The European Union may soon face these effects directly, so it should take steps to resume development cooperation and avert the worst-case scenario.
Topic:
Human Rights, Taliban, Economy, Development Aid, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

5. Prospects for the Launch of the Digital Yuan

Author:
Oskar Szydłowski
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Among the digital currency projects developed by major economies, the Chinese digital yuan (e-CNY) is the most advanced. After pilot projects in selected Chinese regions, the biggest test was to be at the Winter Olympics in Beijing. The spread of the digital yuan will enable the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to expand its digital authoritarianism through increased surveillance of citizens’ finances. It may also increase the Chinese currency’s share of international transactions in the region. The success of the e-CNY should accelerate the ECB’s work on a privacy-preserving digital euro.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Surveillance, Digital Currency, and Yuan
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

6. Before the Invasion: The Russian-Belarusian Allied Resolve Exercises

Author:
Anna Maria Dyner
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
On 10-20 February, Belarus hosted the active phase of the Belarusian-Russian manoeuvres Allied Resolve, after which Russian troops remained in the country. The drills preceded the Russian invasion of Ukraine that started on 24 February. The scenario was an extension of last year’s Zapad exercises and simulated actions against the countries of NATO’s Eastern Flank and Ukraine. The manoeuvres showed Russia’s ability to deploy units over long distances (more than 10,000 km) and the high interoperability of the Russian and Belarusian armed forces. The growing military integration of Belarus and Russia, along with the decision to leave Russian military units in Belarus, is a challenge for NATO in the context of defending its Eastern Flank and its policy towards Ukraine.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Conflict, and Military Exercises
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Belarus

7. Eritrea as an Informal Representative of the Pro-Russia Forces in Africa

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Eritrea was the only African country to vote against the UN General Assembly (UNGA) resolution on 2 March condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Although this voice was isolated, Eritrea has become the informal representative of a larger group of states on the continent critical of the West. The possible enlargement of this pro-Russia bloc will depend on the financial and military ability of Russia to remain active in Africa.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, United Nations, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, and Eritrea

8. The Road to Low-Carbon Economies in the EU's Arab Neighbourhood

Author:
Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
At the end of last year, Mediterranean Arab states (i.e., Egypt and Algeria) announced investments or tenders related to the production of renewable energy sources (RES). This is related to the pressure to move away from fossil fuels and the favourable conditions in these countries to produce solar energy. Although in the short term the EU cooperation with its Arab neighbours on RES might slow due to the war in Ukraine, in the longer perspective, given their capacities in this regard, it remains crucial in order for the EU to become independent on Russian energy.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Fossil Fuels, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Europe, Algeria, and Mediterranean

9. Turkey's Role in the Russian-Ukrainian Negotiations

Author:
Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Russian-Ukrainian negotiations held on 29 March in Istanbul demonstrates that Turkey is assuming the role of an intermediary. Its policy of balancing between Russia and Ukraine is backed by the majority of the Turkish public, which gives President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan more freedom to manoeuvre. Acting as an intermediary in the conflict may allow Turkey an opportunity to start improving the strained relations with the European Union and the United States.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, European Union, Conflict, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine

10. Determinants of China's Policy Towards the War in Ukraine

Author:
Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
China’s position on the war in Ukraine depends mainly on the stabilisation of China’s internal situation before the 20th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress planned for autumn this year. By holding NATO responsible for the conflict, the CCP reinforces its rhetoric about the legitimacy of the rivalry with the U.S. China’s signals on supporting peace negotiations and not helping Russia to circumvent sanctions are intended to protect China from possible Western secondary sanctions. The prospect of further Sino-Russian cooperation should induce the EU to reduce its economic interdependence with China.
Topic:
War, Sanctions, European Union, Rivalry, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia

11. The Course of Cooperation between Russia and its Latin American Partners

Author:
Bartlomiej Znojek
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
For the past several years, Russia has been strengthening ties with the authoritarian regimes of Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, and has developed cooperation with other Latin American countries as an investor in the energy sector, a supplier of weapons and Sputnik-V COVID-19 vaccine, and in other areas. Most Latin American governments have condemned the Russian aggression against Ukraine, but they have not imposed sanctions on Russia. It is in the EU’s interest to persuade its Latin American partners of the validity of the restrictions and to work together to mitigate the negative economic effects of the war.
Topic:
International Cooperation, War, Sanctions, Authoritarianism, Partnerships, and Vaccine
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Cuba, Latin America, Nicaragua, and Venezuela

12. The International Dimension of the U.S. Strategy on Countering Corruption

Author:
Mateusz Piotrowski
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The first Strategy on Countering Corruption, adopted on 6 December 2021, assumes that by making better use of existing international regulations and organisations, as well as by establishing new mechanisms, the U.S. will tighten global anti-corruption cooperation. The American goal is to limit the freedom to conduct financial operations by authoritarian states, mainly China and Russia, and at the same time to strengthen democratic countries and promote democracy. For Poland, this is an opportunity to tighten bilateral and multilateral cooperation with the United States.
Topic:
Corruption, International Cooperation, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Russia, China, North America, and United States of America

13. A New Rapprochement in Romanian-Moldovan Relations

Author:
Jakub Pieńkowski
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Since Maia Sandu became president of Moldova in December 2020, Romanian-Moldovan relations have steadily improved. In November 2021 she met for a fourth time with Romanian President Klaus Iohannis, signing a “roadmap” of cooperation. Both countries recognise that a linguistic, historical, and cultural community binds them, however the challenge is to move from declarations to the implementation of projects, especially in infrastructure. Romania’s effective involvement in such projects, given its special ties with Moldova, may contribute to the success of its pro-European transformation, which is also supported by Poland.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Rapprochement
Political Geography:
Europe, Moldova, and Romania

14. Austrian Migration Policy and the Events in Afghanistan and Belarus

Author:
Łukasz Ogrodnik
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Contrary to the government’s rhetoric about restrictive migration policy, Austria remains open to the settlement of people from outside the EU. The takeover of power by the Taliban in Afghanistan in the summer of 2021 and the intensifying crisis on the border between EU countries and Belarus stimulated the Austrian government in international forums in the field of migration. The prospects for cooperation with the V4 countries in this regard were heightened after interior minister Karl Nehammer was elevated to Chancellor.
Topic:
Government, International Cooperation, Migration, European Union, and Borders
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Europe, Austria, and Belarus

15. Foreign Policy in the Presidential Campaign in South Korea

Author:
Oskar Pietrewicz
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The presidential election in South Korea will be held on 9 March. The main candidates are representatives of the largest political parties: Lee Jae-myung of the ruling liberal Democratic Party and Yoon Suk-yeol of the opposition conservative People Power Party. A Lee victory would largely mean the continuation of the current government’s foreign policy—striving for dialogue with North Korea, maintaining a strong alliance with the U.S., and stable relations with China. If Yoon wins, it would increase the likelihood of stronger support of South Korea for the U.S. in its rivalry with China and increased tensions in relations with North Korea. Both candidates condemn Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, but draw different conclusions from the war.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Presidential Elections, and Campaigning
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

16. The Impact of the Russian Aggression Against Ukraine on the EU's Economy

Author:
Melchior Szczepanik
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
A spike in energy prices provoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will inhibit the economic rebound in the EU. Member States will have to face high inflation for longer than previously expected. Forced to increase spending, they also could postpone plans to reduce their debts. The conflict with Russia is mobilising the Community to speed up the development of renewable energy and reduce dependencies on third countries, especially authoritarian ones, in strategic sectors.
Topic:
Energy Policy, War, European Union, Economy, and Inflation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

17. Belarus's Reaction to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Author:
Anna Maria Dyner
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
From the very beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Belarusian authorities have sided with Russia, supporting it politically and militarily, including making its territory available to the Russian troops. In this way, Belarus is also an aggressor and, as a consequence, the EU and the U.S. have imposed further sanctions on it. Regardless of the attempts to engage in Ukrainian-Russian negotiations, Belarus will be negatively affected by the consequences of its government’s policy and the country, although formally sovereign, has ceased to be perceived as an independent entity in international relations.
Topic:
International Relations, Sovereignty, War, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus

18. Deficiency and Elusion: Relations between Israel and Ukraine

Author:
Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2014 broadened the political dimension of Israeli-Ukrainian relations. However, Israel’s cautious attitude towards Russia remains a burden for mutual relations with Ukraine. Since the renewed Russian aggression in February, Ukraine has diplomatically engaged Israel, but the limited nature of the latter’s support has led to criticism from Ukraine. The scale of the current assistance and pledged aid for the reconstruction of Ukraine, as well as Israel’s policy towards further tightening of sanctions against Russia, will be key to future relations.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Israel

19. Lebanon after the Elections

Author:
Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Although the parliamentary elections on 15 May did not bring a breakthrough in the Lebanese political scene, the weakening of the dominant parties may facilitate reforms necessary to obtain foreign financial aid. The positive results for candidates related to the 2019 anti-government protests will mean a greater emphasis on the fight against corruption among the political elite. To avoid further instability in Lebanon, the EU could step up its support for that state’s institutions, including the Lebanese army, popular amongst the public.
Topic:
Corruption, Politics, Foreign Aid, Elections, Protests, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

20. The UK's First Comprehensive Space Strategy

Author:
Aleksandra Kozioł
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The development of a comprehensive space strategy that encompasses civil and military aspects is in line with the British global strategy adopted last year. Its main goal is to strengthen the domestic space sector in the face of increasing competition on world markets and to make the United Kingdom one of the leaders in this field. The implementation of the strategy will be supported by increased funding, but without setting investment priorities and establishing closer cooperation with allies, including European countries, it will be difficult to achieve the objectives.
Topic:
Markets, Space, Strategic Competition, and Military
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

21. The EU's Prospects for Decoupling from Russian Gas

Author:
Maciej Zaniewicz
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Russian aggression against Ukraine and cut-off of gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria have strengthened the arguments of supporters of EU independence from Russian gas. However, the prospect of a total embargo is still distant because of opposition from some countries, including Austria, Germany, and Hungary. As a result, the EU will focus on a gradual reduction in purchases of Russian gas, which will have a negative impact on the effectiveness of the sanctions against Russia. It is in Poland’s interest to strive for increasing the pace of diversification of gas supplies to the EU and reducing use.
Topic:
Sanctions, European Union, Gas, and Energy Dependence
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Poland, and Bulgaria

22. New Perspectives for Nuclear Energy in the EU

Author:
Maciej Zaniewicz and Zuzanna Nowak
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
EU countries opposing nuclear energy, mainly Austria and Germany, are trying to limit its development in the Union by using the dispute over the details of the “green taxonomy”. The Russian aggression against Ukraine, however, has strengthened the arguments of supporters of this technology. They present nuclear energy as a way to make Europe independent of Russian gas and oil imports while reducing CO2 emissions. The final shape of the delegated act supplementing the taxonomy and the date of its entry into force will significantly affect the future of new nuclear projects in the EU, including in Poland.
Topic:
Energy Policy, European Union, Carbon Emissions, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Germany, and Austria

23. Russia's Wartime Censorship and Propaganda

Author:
Agnieszka Legucka
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In connection with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Russian authorities have introduced wartime censorship, forbidding the publication of content that does not conform to the official message of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation. This massive and unprecedented propaganda is leading to an increase in support for Vladimir Putin, and Russians protesting against the war are being brutally repressed and persecuted. The consequence is the strengthening of the totalitarian character of the Russian state and the emigration of Russians who do not support the war. The most significant element of the Russian war propaganda is that of “denazification”, a claim aimed also at Poland.
Topic:
War, Authoritarianism, Media, Propaganda, and Censorship
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

24. French Politics after the Second Round of Parliamentary Elections

Author:
Amanda Dziubińska
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition fell well short of an absolute majority in the National Assembly (289 required of the chamber’s 577 seats). For both radical right-wing and left-wing voters, the limitation of the president’s power was of more importance than ideological differences. As a result, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally saw an unprecedented result, becoming the main opposition party. In the most likely scenario of a coalition with Republicans or moderate left and right politicians, the presidential camp, as the greatest political force in the Assembly, will seek to continue the current foreign policy and retain its representatives in key ministries.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Emmanuel Macron, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Europe and France

25. Germany in the Shadow of War and Inflation: Six Months of the Scholz Government

Author:
Łukasz Jasiński
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), The Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) came to power with the intention of undertaking significant economic and social reforms. Their ambitious plans were symbolised by the title of the coalition agreement, “Daring to Make More Progress”. The war in Ukraine, though, has forced the government to take revolutionary steps in the areas of defence and energy security. The Chancellor’s vagueness about the supply of weapons to Ukraine has been causing his SPD’s ratings to fall and The Greens’ popularity to rise. To reverse this trend, the chancellor will pursue further social reforms.
Topic:
Government, War, Domestic Politics, Inflation, and Olaf Scholz
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Germany

26. Ukraine’s Policy Towards Turkey

Author:
Maria Piechowska
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The current revival of Ukrainian-Turkish contacts stems from Ukraine’s efforts to win over Turkey as an economic and defence partner in the face of Russian aggression. Both countries share the common goal of limiting Russian domination in the Black Sea. Turkey supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and stands up for the Crimean Tatars, persecuted by Russia. Close bilateral relations may make Turkey—after the EU and the U.S.—one of Ukraine’s most important partners. However, the intensity of the political dialogue will depend on the state of Russian-Turkish relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, and Middle East

27. Acceleration of Climate Policy and the Energy Transformation in Slovakia

Author:
Łukasz Ogrodnik
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Eduard Heger government wants to increase the production of energy from renewable sources and nuclear energy. This is evidenced among others by the preparations for the commissioning of two new units of the Mochovce nuclear power plant. Although Visegrad Group states include pronouncements they plan to use nuclear power in their national energy mixes, the difference in those mixes limits the possibilities of formulating regional climate policy and results in a lack of coherence on the EU forum. Hydrogen fuel, the use of which is growing in Slovakia, also remains an untapped potential for regional cooperation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Government, Nuclear Power, and European Union
Political Geography:
Central Europe and Slovakia

28. Germany-U.S. Relations: A Return to the Strategic Partnership

Author:
Lidia Gibadło and Mateusz Piotrowski
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Since Joe Biden’s presidency began, Germany’s relationship with the United States has improved. The U.S. made significant concessions, primary among them agreeing to the construction of the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline. This is a new opening for the U.S. in the bilateral relations and sets the foundations for the reconstruction of the strategic partnership with Germany that Biden sees as necessary to implement U.S. policy towards a post-Brexit Europe. However, the possible reluctance of the next German government to adopt a more confrontational policy towards China could be a challenge to that goal.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Nord Stream 2
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America

29. The Specificity of Hungarian-Israeli Relations

Author:
Michał Wojnarowicz and Veronika Jóźwiak
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Hungary under Viktor Orbán’s premiership has become one of Israel’s most important European partners. This is reflected in the diplomatic support for Israel by Hungary, mainly at the EU level. Close relations with Israel serve Hungary’s foreign and domestic policy goals and at the same time weaken the effectiveness of the EU’s Middle East policy. However, the new Israeli government may be less open to political cooperation with this country because of earlier criticism of Hungary on, for example, historical issues.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Hungary

30. The Ukrainian Energy Sector at a Crossroads: Opportunities for Poland

Author:
Maciej Zaniewicz
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Ukraine’s orientation towards the synchronisation of its energy system with the Continental Europe Synchronous Area (CESA) and the need to determine the future of nuclear energy has forced it to settle on an energy transformation strategy. One model may involve replacing nuclear and coal with renewable energy sources (RES), as advocated by Germany. However, a solution assuming the simultaneous development of nuclear, gas, and renewable energy would be more beneficial for Ukraine, and for Poland’s energy security. Poland may promote this solution in Ukraine in cooperation with France, the U.S., and the UK.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Renewable Energy, Nuclear Energy, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Poland

31. Reform of the European Court of Human Rights

Author:
Stefania Kolarz
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Protocol No. 15 to the European Convention on Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms (ECHR), which entered into force on 1 August, was to improve the functioning of the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), including by accelerating the examination of cases. However, some of the changes made by it may have the opposite effect. The protocol does not solve the problem of overloading the ECtHR with incoming complaints. The reform should be thus continued by, for example, more effective resolution by states of systemic problems identified by the ECtHR.
Topic:
Reform, Courts, Jurisdiction, and European Court of Human Rights (ECHR)
Political Geography:
Europe

32. EU Humanitarian Aid in Afghanistan: Needs and Challenges

Author:
Aleksandra Kozioł and Elzbieta Kaca
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Taliban offensive in Afghanistan has deepened the humanitarian crisis in the country. Afghans are struggling now with forced displacement as well as a food and health crisis. The EU will increase its humanitarian aid, but its effectiveness will be limited by dangerous working conditions for NGOs. This requires an agreement with the Taliban to respect humanitarian law.
Topic:
Health, Humanitarian Aid, Food, Taliban, NGOs, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Europe, and South Asia

33. The Impact of the Situation in Afghanistan on Regional Security in Central Asia

Author:
Arkadiusz Legieć
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
From the perspective of Central Asian states, the potential for further destabilisation of Afghanistan is seen as a significant regional transnational threat. It would make these countries more susceptible to influence, primarily from Russia, which bases its policy in the region on military power. The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan is already being used by Russia, China, and Turkey in propaganda as an example of the lack of American credibility, as well as that of European countries. This situation will limit the prospects for cooperation between the Central Asian republics and the U.S. and the EU in the future.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Destabilization, and Military
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

34. The Impact of the Situation in Afghanistan on Military Missions in Africa

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Taliban victory in Afghanistan was enthusiastically received by some armed Al-Qaida-affiliated jihadist groups in Africa with whom they share a sense of fighting for a common cause. Countries participating in international military operations in Somalia and the Sahel are limiting their involvement because of the growing political cost. In the case of Somalia, the risk of Islamists seizing power has increased. In Mali, the likelihood of the extremists’ participation in ruling the country has grown. To prevent a repeat of the Afghanistan scenario, EU states and the U.S. will modify their military engagement.
Topic:
Taliban, Violent Extremism, Al-Qaeda of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and Military
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, South Asia, Mali, and Sahel

35. Arab Gulf States and the Situation in Afghanistan

Author:
Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Arab state authorities are refraining from making unequivocal declarations about the future of relations with Afghanistan after the Taliban took power. The priority of the Arab leadership in the Persian Gulf will be to prevent the destabilisation of Afghanistan and to influence the Afghan government policy towards terrorist organisations. Given the convergence of EU and Arab state goals related to countering the threat of terrorism in the country, the Union could include them in the announced regional platform for cooperation on Afghanistan.
Topic:
International Relations, Terrorism, Taliban, and European Union
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

36. Vaccine Diplomacy: A Tool in the Rivalry for Influence in Latin America

Author:
Bartlomiej Znojek
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The uneven access to COVID-19 vaccines in Latin American countries has resulted in a widely varied pace of immunisation. The region has relied mainly on direct purchases from China and Russia, among others, the global COVAX initiative, and donations from the U.S. and other countries. Russia, China, and the U.S. in particular are using this “vaccine diplomacy” to boost their own political and economic influence in Latin America. The EU has been trying to position itself against that rivalry, for example, through significant funding for vaccine access and distribution initiatives. These efforts require, however, more efficient promotion of the Union’s engagement.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Vaccine, COVID-19, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Latin America, and United States of America

37. A Year Later: Status and Perspectives on Israeli-Arab Normalisation

Author:
Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Israeli-Arab normalisation launched in August 2020 has proved to be a stable process so far. Relations are deepened by the interest of the parties despite changing conditions (e.g., the new government in Israel and the U.S.) or the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The future of the process remains dependent on U.S. policy towards the region and the scale of support for the new Israeli government.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Conflict, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

38. The EU's Plans to Reduce Methane Emissions in the Energy Sector

Author:
Zuzanna Nowack
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Later this year, the European Commission (EC) will present draft legislation aimed at increasing the standards of monitoring ,reporting, and leak detection of methane emissions. Although there is a consensus in the EU regarding the need to reduce emissions of this second-most-harmful greenhouse gas after CO2, the implementation of the EC’s methane strategy and its expected costs are of concern to energy companies, including Polish ones. The EC will have to consider implementing a system of compensation and incentives to mitigate the effects of the proposed reforms.
Topic:
European Union, Methane, Carbon Emissions, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe

39. Prospects for the Normalisation of Turkish-Armenian Relations

Author:
Arkadiusz Legieć and Karol Wasilewski
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The leaders of Turkey and Armenia announce an attempt to establish diplomatic relations and open borders. Success would be beneficial for both countries: it would strengthen Turkey's influence in the Caucasus, and it would enable Armenia to break the regional isolation. However, success remains unlikely due to nationalist sentiment in both countries and the possibility of Russia and Azerbaijan sabotaging the talks.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Armenia, and Mediterranean

40. Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan: Consequences for NATO

Author:
Wojciech Lorenz
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan will not change NATO’s overall threat perception, which will be shaped mainly by the military threat from Russia, challenges related to the rise of China, and instability in Europe’s neighbourhood. Criticism of NATO may, however, influence discussions on a new strategy, which should facilitate adaptation of the Alliance to new threat assessment. There will be increased pressure on the development of crisis-response capabilities within the coalition of the willing and the European Union.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Taliban, and European Union
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, China, Europe, and South Asia

41. Ambitious Plans and Economic Pragmatism - China in the Face of Climate Change

Author:
Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
China’s policy on climate change mainly serves to improve its international image, increase the competitiveness of its economy, and strengthen the legitimacy of the Communist Party’s (CPC) power. China’s activities include the development of green technologies and the announcement of a plan to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by around 2030. However, the plans are unevenly implemented, sometimes even contrary to expectations, as evidenced by the construction of new coal-fired power plants. The problem of satisfying the country’s energy needs while protecting the environment means that the EU and the U.S. should treat China’s pro-climate declarations with caution.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, European Union, Green Technology, and Pragmatism
Political Geography:
China and Asia

42. The Fall of Afghanistan: The Biden Administration's First Crisis

Author:
Mateusz Piotrowski
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan sparked the first major crisis of confidence in President Joe Biden and his administration, both in the U.S. and internationally. It has affected the administration’s relations with Democrats in Congress, whose confidence in the president has weakened. This narrows the president’s freedom to conduct foreign policy. At the same time, the way the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan will be used by its rivals to undermine American guarantees to Allies and the U.S. standing in the international arena.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America

43. Progress of the Debate on Sustainable Farming in the EU

Author:
Melchior Szczepanik
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In October, the European Parliament approved the goals set by the European Commission (EC) in the Farm to Fork Strategy. This boosted the effort to reduce the negative effects of agriculture on the climate and environment. The details of the strategy must, however, still be negotiated, with the majority of Member States less enthusiastic about the planned reforms than MEPs. Certain sectors of the agri-food industry are striving to slow the transformation. In October, the European Parliament approved the goals set by the European Commission (EC) in the Farm to Fork Strategy. This boosted the effort to reduce the negative effects of agriculture on the climate and environment. The details of the strategy must, however, still be negotiated, with the majority of Member States less enthusiastic about the planned reforms than MEPs. Certain sectors of the agri-food industry are striving to slow the transformation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, European Union, Sustainability, and Farming
Political Geography:
Europe

44. North Korea's Foreign Policy Towards South Korea and the U.S.

Author:
Oskar Pietrewicz
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In recent months, North Korea has intensified missile tests, while signalling the possibility of resuming talks with South Korea and the U.S. These signals of openness to dialogue indicate that North Korea wants the next South Korean president, who will be elected in March 2022, to be favourable to the inter-Korean dialogue. In turn, the demonstration of military capabilities serves to strengthen North Korea’s position ahead of possible negotiations with the U.S. to convince it to ease sanctions. The difficult domestic situation will not persuade North Korea to take a more conciliatory stance in the talks, however.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Dialogue, and Military
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

45. Ukraine's Foreign Policy Strategy

Author:
Maria Piechowska
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, approved in August this year the first Foreign Policy Strategy in the country’s history. According to the document, Ukraine’s main goal is membership in the EU and NATO and an end to the conflict with Russia. Like in the National Security Strategy, Ukraine included Poland in the second group of strategic partners. Cooperation with Poland is to be deepened and developed, not only bilaterally but also as part of multilateral formats in the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, National Security, European Union, and Volodymyr Zelensky
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

46. Belarus in Turkey's Foreign Policy

Author:
Karol Wasilewski
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Turkey’s actions towards Belarus show that the country plays a greater role in Turkish foreign policy than bilateral relations might suggest. It would be beneficial for Turkey’s Western allies, including Poland, to take this factor into account in the dialogue with their Turkish partner on the political use of the migration through the Belarusian-Polish border by Alexander Lukashenka’s regime and on the political situation in Belarus.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Migration, Bilateral Relations, and Borders
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Poland, and Belarus

47. Russian and Belarusian Disinformation and Propaganda in the Context of the Polish-Belarusian Border Crisis

Author:
Agnieszka Legucka and Filip Bryjka
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Russia and Belarus are consistent in their narrative regarding the recent border crisis. They accuse EU and NATO members, mainly Poland and Lithuania, of failing to respect international law and lacking humanity. This is aimed at discrediting Euro-Atlantic structures and weakening Polish and Lithuanian influence on NATO and EU eastern policy. The Belarusian-Russian propaganda particularly invokes charges of hypocrisy and “double standards” on the part of the EU, which challenges the management and resolution of the border crisis.
Topic:
NATO, Migration, Borders, Propaganda, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Belarus

48. The Course of the Energy Transition in Latin America

Author:
Bartlomiej Znojek and Zuzanna Nowak
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The energy transition in Latin American countries is increasingly important for their economic development and the fight against climate change. These states want to use their potential of renewable energy sources (RES) and raw materials such as lithium deposits to attract investments and increase their participation in global supply chains building the low-carbon economy. The EU and its Member States—Germany in particular—have been more and more involved in cooperation with the region in these areas. Poland can also benefit, for example, through the exchange of experience and the engagement of Polish companies.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Renewable Energy, Economic Development, Supply Chains, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and Latin America

49. Japan's Foreign Policy Under Kishida

Author:
Oskar Pietrewicz
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The government of Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, formed on 10 November, will continue the foreign policy of his predecessors Abe Shinzō and Suga Yoshihide. In response to China’s regional policy, Japan intends to develop its military potential and deepen cooperation with the U.S. and other partners, including European, in the Indo-Pacific. At the same time, Kishida will strive for stable relations with China and trade liberalisation in the region out of Japan’s own economic interest. The new government’s focus on the country’s internal socioeconomic problems will be conducive to maintaining the current course in foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, Economy, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

50. Protection of Digital Platform Workers in the EU

Author:
Marta Makowska
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The European Commission (EC) has proposed a directive that provides protection of people performing work for digital platforms, especially in professions that do not require specialist qualifications. If the proposal is accepted in the shape presented by the EC, it will be a breakthrough solution on a global scale that adjusts labour law to the challenges of the digital economy. It will also strengthen the EU’s position in relations with platforms.
Topic:
Labor Issues, European Union, European Commission, and Digital Platform Workers
Political Geography:
Europe