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1. Assessing military cyber maturity: strategy, institutions and capability

Author:
Greg Austin and Jason Blessing
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Few governments have reached an enduring consensus on just how quickly and how deeply reforms to their military cyber forces must be made. While consensus points have been reached, these are usually tested within a short period of time by international circumstances and technological trends. The main dilemma is whether military cyber strategies and capabilities need more than routine development as just one more element of military power, or whether they warrant radical development pathways and a higher priority than others. One of the most profound influences on the evolution of a country’s military cyber forces and strategies is politics. This paper offers insights into how the governance and organisational factors of domestic politics facilitate or inhibit the dissemination of cyber concepts and capabilities throughout military forces beyond the main signals or cyber intelligence agency. There are at least three reasons to analyse military cyber maturity. The countries currently pursuing such capabilities are not satisfied with the development levels in policy and strategy they have so far reached. There is increasing potential for crippling cyber attacks on key elements of military capability or supporting infrastructure. And no country has yet succeeded in the broad dissemination of cyber capabilities through its armed forces in ways that leading military planners would like. Few governments have reached an enduring consensus on just how quickly and how deeply reforms in the armed forces must be made to satisfy national security needs. While consensus points have been reached, these are usually tested within a short period of time by inter-national circumstances and technological trends. The main dilemma is whether military cyber strategies and capabilities need more than routine development as just one more element of military power, akin to artillery or submarines; or whether they are sufficiently transformative of military power to warrant radical development pathways and a higher priority than others. This paper provides an impact matrix which can be used by governments, their armed forces and research analysts to understand the ways in which military cyber reforms can be facilitated or inhibited by governance and organisational processes.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Cybersecurity, and Digitization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Green Defence: the defence and military implications of climate change for Europe

Author:
Ben Barry and Shiloh Fetzek
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Climate change is a national security threat to Europe. It is an accelerator of conflict and requires European forces to adapt accordingly. Concurrently, armed forces can help mitigate climate change by reducing their greenhouse-gas emissions. For states that plan to reduce carbon emissions, decarbonisation of armed forces without disarming will be a challenge. This new report assesses not only the implications for European armed forces of operating in climate changed worlds, but also the opportunities for reducing carbon footprint from new technologies. It assesses the challenges of implementing the necessary changes to military operations, training and capability and identifies success factors for this essential transformation.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Environment, Science and Technology, Armed Forces, and Green Technology
Political Geography:
Europe

3. Detailed Velocity and Heat Transfer Measurements in an Advanced Gas Turbine Vane Insert Using Magnetic Resonance Velocimetry and Infrared Thermometry

Author:
Michael Benson, David Bindon, Mattias Cooper, F. Todd Davidson, . David Helmer, Robert Woodings, Benjamin Duhaime, Bret P. Van Poppel, Christopher Elkins, and John P. Clark
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
This work reports the results of paired experiments for a complex internal cooling flow within a gas turbine vane using magnetic resonance velocimetry (MRV) and steady-state infrared (IR) thermometry. A scaled model of the leading edge insert for a gas turbine vane with multi-pass impingement was designed, built using stereolithography fabrication methods, and tested using MRV techniques to collect a three-dimensional, three-component velocity field data set for a fully turbulent test case. Stagnation and recirculation zones were identified and assessed in terms of impact on potential cooling performance. A paired experiment employed an IR camera to measure the temperature profile data of a thin, heated stainless steel impingement surface modeling the inside turbine blade wall cooled by the impingement from the vane cooling insert, providing complementary data sets. The temperature data allow for the calculation of wall heat transfer (HT) characteristics, including the Nusselt number distribution for cooling performance analysis to inform design and validate computational models. Quantitative and qualitative comparisons of the paired results show that the flow velocity and cooling performance are highly coupled. Module-to-module variation in the surface Nusselt number distributions is evident, attributable to the complex interaction between transverse and impinging flows within the apparatus. Finally, a comparison with internal HT correlations is conducted using the data from Florschuetz et al. [1981, “Streamwiseflow and Heat Transfer Distributions for Jet Array Impingement With Crossflow,” ASME 1981 International Gas Turbine Conference and Products Show, American Society of Mechanical Engineers. doi:10.1115/1.3244463]. Measurement uncertainty was assessed and estimated to be approximately ±7% for velocity and ranging from ±3% to ±10% for Nusselt number.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Military Strategy, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. Towards a Prevention and Peacebuilding Data Hub: Scoping the Future of Data Services and Capacity Building

Author:
Branka Panic and Paige Arthur
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The complex crises in our world—from rising instability linked to pandemic effects and climate change, to ongoing challenges of civil war, urban violence, violent extremism—require complex analysis and insights. Emerging technologies, data, and data science methods have been recognized as potential tools to help tackle some of these “wicked” problems across the humanitarian-development-peace nexus. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) potentially open a range of new opportunities for early warning and humanitarian preparedness, assessment and monitoring, service delivery, and operational and organizational efficiency. Advanced data analysis is the core of these efforts, and its success often depends on timely access, as well as the right quality and quantity of data.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Data, Machine Learning, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. Indian GI: Local Goes National Goes Global

Author:
Blaise Fernandes
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:
Geographical Indication (GI) tags denote a good's specific physical origin. These are potential revenue-generators for India. Combining government support with its e-commerce network, India can empower MSMEs and women-led cottage industries to compete with large companies by building a strong GI ecosystem. The Make in India initiative and GI can together provide an impetus to social and economic growth in India.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Business, Economic Growth, Commerce, Revenue, and Geographical Indication (GI)
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

6. India in the Indo-Pacific: Pursuing Prosperity and Security

Author:
Christopher Conte
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:
Research Papers in this compendium include: India, the Blue Economy and the Indo-Pacific’s Future (Amb. Rajiv Bhatia); Green Hydrogen: Securing the Energy Supply Chain in the Indo-Pacific (Amit Bhandari); Enhancing Regional Financial Intermediation in the Indo-Pacific (David Rasquinha); India’s Diaspora: Soft Power in the Indo-Pacific Countries (Sifra Lentin); India in the Resilient Supply Chain Initiative: Opportunities, Challenges & Possible Collaborations (Roger C. Liu); India’s Indispensable Role in Human and Economic Security in the Indo-Pacific (Cleo Paskal); Extending India’s Maritime Security Strategy in the Indo-Pacific (Cdr. Amrut Godbole); India’s Current and Potential Contribution to Cyber Resilience in the Indo-Pacific (Sameer Patil); Digital Public Goods for the Indo-Pacific: A Techno-legal Approach to Data Empowerment & Protection (Sanjay Anandaram & Manjeet Kripalani); India’s Role in Equipping Earth Observation Satellites for the Indo-Pacific (Dr. Chaitanya Giri).
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Economy, Maritime, Prosperity, Supply Chains, Hydrogen, and Satellite
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Indo-Pacific

7. China’s Digital Silk Road: integration into national IT infrastructure and wider implications for Western defence industries

Author:
Meia Nouwens
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The geopolitical dispute between the United States and China is taking place on the fault line of global telecommunications infrastructure and digital technologies. As this competition grows, so too does the likelihood of a potential bifurcation in the global information and security technological ecosystems, split between US-allied liberal democracies on the one side and countries dependent on Chinese-based information and communications technology (ICT) on the other. The impact of this competition reaches beyond telecommunications companies and those involved in their supply chains. Indeed, second and third order of magnitude implications exist for the security and defence sectors. While this competition unfolds, the Chinese Government’s Digital Silk Road (DSR) continues apace and leverages the strengths of Chinese public- and private-sector giants to further integrate Chinese technologies and standards into the digital ecosystems of the least-developed, emerging and developed economies alike. The existing literature on the security and defence implications of the integration of Chinese ICT into national digital ecosystems is primarily concerned with the potential threats posed to intelligence and defence cooperation. However, the implication of China’s global digital investments for US and other Western defence industries is an understudied subject that deserves greater attention. To provide greater clarity to Western defence industries on these issues, this project has sought to answer four forward-looking questions. Firstly, what risks does the possibility of a bifurcated global digital ecosystem pose for the national and industrial security of key Asian, European and Middle Eastern states and economies? Secondly, to what extent does the integration of Chinese information technology and digital infrastructure create challenges for alliance intelligence and defence cooperation? Thirdly, what level of integration should be considered significant and how might security-cooperation efforts (e.g. Western arms exports) be affected? Lastly, can security risks to companies doing business abroad be mitigated when the integration of Chinese digital technology into national digital ecosystems is already high? This report has aimed to address this gap in current analysis by outlining the potential risks posed by China’s global digital and technological investments to defence industries. It follows with an analysis of the extent of Chinese DSR activity in five case-study countries across Asia, the Middle East and Europe that are of high security and defence importance to the US: Indonesia, the Republic of Korea (ROK), Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Poland. In doing so, the report aims to provide greater insight into government decision-making and lessons learned for Western defence industries.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Communications, Infrastructure, Hegemony, Digital Economy, Conflict, Silk Road, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

8. Revitalising arms control: the MTCR and the HCoC

Author:
William Alberque
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The paper examines the two most important multilateral frameworks for curbing the spread of uninhabited aerial systems (missiles and UAVs) capable of delivering large conventional payloads and weapons of mass destruction – the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and the Hague Code of Conduct against Ballistic Missile Proliferation (HCoC). Specifically, the paper discusses the origins and history of the MTCR and HCoC, their evolution over time (or lack thereof) and seeks to measure them against their intended goals. In the end, it urges for radical reform, but also provides suggested incremental changes that should be enacted immediately. It includes analysis of several specific regional security issues and related action–reaction defence-modernisation trends. This paper was drafted within the framework of the Missile Dialogue Initiative (MDI). The MDI was launched by the German Federal Foreign Office in 2019 and is administered by the IISS. The MDI has created a Track 1.5 dialogue (government and non-government experts working together) to contribute to state-level discussions of potential policy responses to the accelerating spread of missile capabilities to state and non-state actors. The MDI appears in the context of the erosion of the global and regional arms-control architecture and during a period of rapid technological change, which includes the evolution and spread of new, advanced missile systems that have contributed to growing instability.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Conflict, Missile Defense, and Instability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9. Leading edge: key drivers of defence innovation and the future of operational advantage

Author:
Simona R. Soare and Fabrice Pothier
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The ability to develop and integrate emerging and disruptive technologies in defence is rapidly becoming a metric of success in the global competition for power. In this paper, Simona R. Soare and Fabrice Pothier provide a systematic conceptualisation of defence innovation. By empirically analysing innovation efforts in five countries – notably, China, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States – the paper identifies and analyses four key drivers of defence innovation, provides a better understanding of how the five nations prioritise among them, and explores how they are linked to future operational advantage.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Innovation, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. Armed uninhabited aerial vehicles and the challenges of autonomy

Author:
Douglas Barrie, Oskar Glaese, Niklas Ebert, and Franz-Stefan Gady
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Two decades ago, the notion of arming an uninhabited aerial vehicle (UAV) was little more than a niche pursuit. Today, at least 20 countries have weaponised UAV systems in their inventories, with other nations pursuing acquisition, while the capability is also proliferating to non-state actors. The air vehicles range from small, crude, hobbyist-style UAVs favoured by some non-state groups, to large, long-endurance platforms capable of being fitted with a range of sensors and air-to-surface weapons. Technological development continues apace with an increasing emphasis on greater automation and reducing the human workload, along with the emergence of a type of hybrid UAV and air-to-surface munition along side the more established loitering munition. While uninhabited systems are increasingly embraced by many armed forces, they remain an uneasy subject in the wider public realm, where the perceived lack of human control remains an ethical issue. There also continues to be concern in the legal community regarding how increasingly automated – and perhaps one day autonomous – weapon systems fit within the law of armed conflict – legal concept rather than legislation, sometimes also referred to as international humanitarian law. These subjects were the focus of a 21–22 June 2021 seminar organised by IISS Europe to help further the debate and to better understand the implications of weapons-capable uninhabited systems. This paper reflects the discussions and many of the issues raised by the participants.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Europe