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  • Author: Midori Okabe
  • Publication Date: 05-2021
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
  • Abstract: Human migration is a peaceful means of sustaining individuals' lives and promoting social success. However, it is also a human security issue that shows no sign of resolution. According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), more than eight million people worldwide had been forcibly displaced as of mid-20201. Even during the coronavirus pandemic, forced displacement resulting from persecution has been reported in Syria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Somalia, Yemen and other countries in the region of Africa commonly referred to as "the Sahel".
  • Topic: Migration, United Nations, Refugees, COVID-19
  • Political Geography: Africa, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Syria, Somalia
  • Author: Hideyuki Mori
  • Publication Date: 05-2021
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
  • Abstract: Broadly speaking, the COVID-19 crisis has been sparked by a combination of two factors. The first is the threat of zoonoses faced in common by humans and other vertebrate animals, and once again it has become clear that the capture and sale of wild animals can produce crises such as this. The second factor is the overall acceleration in the movement of people and goods across national borders that is characteristic of globalization. The first factor enabled transmission of the COVID-19 virus from animals to humans, while the second caused these infections to spread worldwide to a pandemic level.
  • Topic: Environment, Sustainability, COVID-19, Air Pollution
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Sachiko Ishikawa
  • Publication Date: 05-2021
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
  • Abstract: With the COVID-19 pandemic threatening the lives and livelihoods of all people on Earth, UN Secretary-General Guterres from the outset has called for more international solidarity and cooperation than ever to respond to the coronavirus. Today, after a quarter of a century since the concept of human security was first brought to the world by the UNDP in 1994, the pandemic struck just as the importance of reconsidering its value and implementation in light of changes within the international community was being debated. In 2020, discussions about rethinking the concept and practice of human security in the context of the coronavirus pandemic increased, especially among academic societies and aid workers in Japan.
  • Topic: Recovery, Human Security, COVID-19
  • Political Geography: Japan, Global Focus
  • Author: Kyle J Wolfley
  • Publication Date: 03-2021
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
  • Abstract: As the COIVD-19 pandemic forced the United States to scale down its massive Defender exercise in Europe, the Chinese military continued its multinational exercise programs with Cambodia, Russia, and Pakistan, despite China’s strict domestic lockdowns. These exercises highlight how China is wielding a form of military power commonly overlooked in assessments of its rise. Today, states leverage their armed forces not only for warfighting or coercion, but also to manage international relationships. Military power includes not only the capacity to conquer and compel, but also the ability to create advantage through attraction and persuasion—a concept I call “shaping.” Unlike military strategies of warfighting or coercion, shaping relies less on force and more on the use of persuasion to change the characteristics of other militaries, build closer ties with other states, and influence the behavior of allies. China’s leaders increasingly understand the value of using their military to shape the international system in their favor. American policymakers, if they wish to compete effectively, ought to take shaping more seriously as well.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Pandemic, COVID-19
  • Political Geography: China, Asia, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Steven Rebello, Jesse Copelyn, Sinqobile Makhathini, Boikanyo Moloto
  • Publication Date: 08-2021
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
  • Abstract: Militarisation refers to a process where societies (states, institutions, and citizens) prioritise, organise, prepare for and respond to threats or crises with military action or violence. This policy brief highlights how many countries across the world, including South Africa, adopted a militarised response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In South Africa, this militarised response has been noted by the deployment of the SANDF to assist with the enforcement of COVID-19 regulations as well as through the noticeable increase in the use of excessive force in response to protests.
  • Topic: Disaster Relief, Protests, Violence, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19
  • Political Geography: Africa, South Africa
  • Author: Hongyong Zhang
  • Publication Date: 03-2021
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
  • Abstract: Using aggregate-level data on Japanese multinational corporations (MNCs) in major host countries and regions, this paper investigates the impact of COVID-19 on global production and supply chains with a focus on East Asia. I use the numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths as measures of the impact of the pandemic. I find that the pandemic had substantial impacts on the performance (sales, employment, and investment) of Japanese MNCs and global supply chains (exports to Japan and exports to third countries) in Q1–Q3 2020. China recovered quickly in Q2 and grew in Q3, whilst the countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the rest of the world had still not fully recovered in Q3 2020. Importantly, lockdown and containment policies in host countries had large negative impacts on the sales and employment of Japanese MNCs. In contrast, I did not find positive effects of economic support policies on firm performance. Interestingly, whilst the firm expectations and business plans of Japanese MNCs were negatively affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, their business confidence increased with strong overall government policy responses in host countries in Q1 2020.
  • Topic: Economic Development , Pandemic, COVID-19, Production
  • Political Geography: Japan, Asia
  • Author: Mitsuyo Ando
  • Publication Date: 03-2021
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
  • Abstract: This paper investigated the impacts of COVID-19 on international production networks in machinery sectors by shedding light on negative supply shocks, negative demand shocks, and positive demand shocks. Specifically, we examined changes in trade in the periods of falling trade during the first wave of COVID-19 using Japan’s machinery trade at the most disaggregated level and decomposed them into two intensive margins, i.e. the quantity effect and the price effect, and two extensive margins, i.e. the entry effect and the exit effect. Our empirical results demonstrated that i) trade relationships for parts and components are robust, and international production networks are almost intact, so far; ii) the intensive margin, mostly the negative quantity effect, induces the largest negative effects in the transport equipment sector amongst four machinery sectors; iii) positive demand shocks for specific products that are related to teleworking, disinfection, and stay-home activities partially explain sectoral differences; iv) direct negative supply shocks from China, suggested by a negative quantity effect and a positive price effect, exist in February 2020, with possible indirect negative supply shocks and substitution of source countries; and v) negative demand shocks are confirmed from negative quantity and price effects in many cases. As of October 2020, Japan’s machinery trade seems to have largely recovered. If the COVID-19 pandemic lasts long, however, prolonged negative demand shocks would hurt production networks in East Asia.
  • Topic: Demand, Manufacturing, Economic Development , Pandemic, Industry, COVID-19, Supply
  • Political Geography: Japan, Asia
  • Author: Mitsuyo Ando
  • Publication Date: 03-2021
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
  • Abstract: This paper investigated the impacts of COVID-19 on international production networks in machinery sectors by shedding light on negative supply shocks, negative demand shocks, and positive demand shocks. Specifically, we examined changes in trade in the periods of falling trade during the first wave of COVID-19 using Japan’s machinery trade at the most disaggregated level and decomposed them into two intensive margins, i.e. the quantity effect and the price effect, and two extensive margins, i.e. the entry effect and the exit effect. Our empirical results demonstrated that i) trade relationships for parts and components are robust, and international production networks are almost intact, so far; ii) the intensive margin, mostly the negative quantity effect, induces the largest negative effects in the transport equipment sector amongst four machinery sectors; iii) positive demand shocks for specific products that are related to teleworking, disinfection, and stay-home activities partially explain sectoral differences; iv) direct negative supply shocks from China, suggested by a negative quantity effect and a positive price effect, exist in February 2020, with possible indirect negative supply shocks and substitution of source countries; and v) negative demand shocks are confirmed from negative quantity and price effects in many cases. As of October 2020, Japan’s machinery trade seems to have largely recovered. If the COVID-19 pandemic lasts long, however, prolonged negative demand shocks would hurt production networks in East Asia.
  • Topic: Demand, Manufacturing, Economic Development , Pandemic, Industry, COVID-19, Supply
  • Political Geography: Japan, Asia
  • Author: Mitsuyo Ando
  • Publication Date: 03-2021
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
  • Abstract: This paper investigated the impacts of COVID-19 on international production networks in machinery sectors by shedding light on negative supply shocks, negative demand shocks, and positive demand shocks. Specifically, we examined changes in trade in the periods of falling trade during the first wave of COVID-19 using Japan’s machinery trade at the most disaggregated level and decomposed them into two intensive margins, i.e. the quantity effect and the price effect, and two extensive margins, i.e. the entry effect and the exit effect. Our empirical results demonstrated that i) trade relationships for parts and components are robust, and international production networks are almost intact, so far; ii) the intensive margin, mostly the negative quantity effect, induces the largest negative effects in the transport equipment sector amongst four machinery sectors; iii) positive demand shocks for specific products that are related to teleworking, disinfection, and stay-home activities partially explain sectoral differences; iv) direct negative supply shocks from China, suggested by a negative quantity effect and a positive price effect, exist in February 2020, with possible indirect negative supply shocks and substitution of source countries; and v) negative demand shocks are confirmed from negative quantity and price effects in many cases. As of October 2020, Japan’s machinery trade seems to have largely recovered. If the COVID-19 pandemic lasts long, however, prolonged negative demand shocks would hurt production networks in East Asia.
  • Topic: Demand, Manufacturing, Economic Development , Pandemic, Industry, COVID-19, Supply
  • Political Geography: Japan, Asia
  • Author: Kozo Kiyota
  • Publication Date: 03-2021
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
  • Abstract: Global trade is expected to suffer a significant contraction as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Did the relative importance of countries in the world trade network change as a result of the pandemic? The answer to this question is particularly important for Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries because of their strong trade linkages with China, where the COVID-19 virus originated. This paper examines how the world trade network has changed since the COVID-19 pandemic, with a particular focus on ASEAN countries. Tracking the changes in centrality from January 2000 to June 2020, we find no evidence that centrality changed significantly after the pandemic started for most ASEAN countries. Our results suggest that the relative importance of the ASEAN countries in the world trade network is unchanged and will remain unchanged even after the pandemic.
  • Topic: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Pandemic, COVID-19
  • Political Geography: Asia, Southeast Asia