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Begin New Search Political Geography Southeast Asia Content Type Research Paper Publication Year within 5 Years

1. The Great Supply Chain Shift from China to South Asia?

Author:
Ganeshan Wignaraja
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:
Global supply chains connect world industry and international trade in manufactures. East Asia’s dominance with China as the preferred assembly hub in global supply chains has brought unprecedented regional prosperity, but South Asia remains a latecomer. However, pandemic-related and post-pandemic continuing disruptions to supply chains and slowing growth are being keenly felt, dampening China’s attractiveness. In an uncertain global economy, increasingly footloose foreign investors are looking for alternative production locations. Is it South Asia’s turn to prosper through supply chains in this uncertain world? This is the topical public policy question facing India and the others in South Asia. This paper discusses the concept of global supply chains, the industrial rise of East Asia, drivers of supply chain relocation from China, South Asia’s prospects, India as a complementary hub and policy lessons from East Asia’s industrial success. For the purposes of this paper, South Asia is broadly defined as the India and its contiguous countries: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Monetary Policy, Foreign Direct Investment, Industrialization, COVID-19, Supply Chains, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, Asia, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

2. Gender Digital Equality Across ASEAN

Author:
Araba Sey
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper provides an overview of the participation of women in the digital economy across ASEAN. By using available data sources, it compares and analyses levels of women participation in digital economy related occupations and activities across different ASEAN Member States. Overall, the analysis shows that the gap between women and men is bigger with respect to more advanced metrics of access to the digital economy (including skills; entrepreneurship opportunities; access to science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and tech occupations) than for more basic access metrics. Access to digital economy related occupations and activities is particularly important for ASEAN, which is amongst the fastest growing digital economies in the world. The shift towards digital technologies during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is accelerating pre-pandemic trends and making it even more relevant to gain a better understanding of women participation in the digital economy. The paper concludes by providing an overview of policy initiatives in ASEAN Member States and details possible policy options.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Inequality, Digital Economy, Leadership, and Feminism
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

3. The Link Between Global Value Chain Activity and Local Human Capital: Evidence from Indonesia’s Manufacturing Sector

Author:
Rashesh Shrestha and Deborah Winkler
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
For developing countries, participation in global value chains (GVCs) provides an opportunity to expand domestic human capital. Since GVC firms require qualified workers to meet high production standards, they have an incentive to invest directly in their workers’ skills or to raise the demand for skilled workers, which indirectly creates an incentive for workers to enrol in vocational education. This paper explores the relationship between GVC activity and workers’ skills in Indonesia. It combines National Labor Force Survey (SAKERNAS) data with the Large/Medium Industry Survey (IBS) to construct a pooled cross-sectional data set of Indonesian manufacturing workers which takes into account measures of GVC activity at the district-sector-year level. The findings suggest that higher GVC activity in a worker’s district-sector-year is linked to a higher likelihood of vocational education of individual workers. A separate panel data analysis at the district level confirms the positive relationship between GVC activity and human capital. Finally, the results indicate that the wage premium for vocational education is higher in districts with greater intensity of GVC activity.
Topic:
Development, Education, Training, Manufacturing, Industry, and Global Value Chains
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

4. Getting to Grade 10 in Viet Nam: Challenges from Deprivation, Discrimination, and a Booming Job Market

Author:
Ian Coxhead, Nguyen Vuong, and Phong Nguyen
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Viet Nam has enjoyed more than a generation of rapid economic growth, led by labour-intensive exports. This form and pace of growth has increased schooling opportunities, but has also reduced incentives for some students to advance to higher education. We hypothesise that these conflicting influences help explain another puzzle – the relatively slow growth of educational progression to upper secondary school. Slow and unevenly distributed increases in schooling attainment are warning signs for the sustainability of future aggregate growth and for the distribution of growth gains. We use a new data set on participation rates and scores in an exam to enter Grade 10, the first year of upper secondary school, to analyse the variation in test participation rates due to demand- and supply-side factors. The data are drawn from less advanced provinces within Viet Nam. As such, they shed light on the challenges of expanding educational development at the extensive margins of lower socio-economic status and higher grades, especially in areas with large ethnic minority populations.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Economic Growth, Training, and Job Creation
Political Geography:
Asia, Vietnam, and Southeast Asia

5. Fuelling the Engines of Liberation with Cleaner Cooking Fuel

Author:
Tushar Bharati, Yiwei Qian, and Jeonghwan Yun
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Using the staggered roll-out of the Indonesian Conversion to Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) Programme, we show that a subsidy for the labour- and time-saving cooking technology increased female labour force participation. The programme also increased household consumption expenditure and the decision-making power of women in the household, especially in financial matters. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the benefits of switching to LPG far outweighed the costs to the households. Based on previous research, we conjecture that intra-household externalities and gender differences in preferences drive the low rates of adoption of cost-effective technology. The programme’s impact on the financial decision-making power of women suggests that subsidies which empower women, even if temporary, can encourage the adoption and sustained use of beneficial technology.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Women, and Family
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

6. Understanding Quality Energy-Related Infrastructure Development in the Mekong Subregion: Key Drivers and Policy Implications

Author:
Han Phoumin, Sopheak Meas, and Hatda Pich An
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Many players have supported infrastructure development in the Mekong Subregion, bridging the missing links in Southeast Asia. While the influx of energy-related infrastructure development investments to the region has improved the livelihoods of millions of people on the one hand, it has brought about a myriad of challenges to the wider region in guiding investments for quality infrastructure and for promoting a low-carbon economy, and energy access and affordability, on the other hand. Besides reviewing key regional initiatives for infrastructure investment and development, this paper examines energy demand and supply, and forecasts energy consumption in the subregion during 2017–2050 using energy modelling scenario analysis. The study found that to satisfy growing energy demand in the subregion, huge power generation infrastructure investment, estimated at around $190 billion–$220 billion, is necessary between 2017 and 2050 and that such an investment will need to be guided by appropriate policy. We argue that without redesigning energy policy towards high-quality energy infrastructure, it is very likely that the increasing use of coal upon which the region greatly depends will lead to the widespread construction of coal-fired power plants, which could result in increased greenhouse gas and carbon dioxide emissions.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, Infrastructure, Renewable Energy, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Vietnam, Burma, Cambodia, Thailand, Southeast Asia, Laos, and Myanmar

7. The COVID-19 Pandemic and the World Trade Network

Author:
Kozo Kiyota
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Global trade is expected to suffer a significant contraction as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Did the relative importance of countries in the world trade network change as a result of the pandemic? The answer to this question is particularly important for Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries because of their strong trade linkages with China, where the COVID-19 virus originated. This paper examines how the world trade network has changed since the COVID-19 pandemic, with a particular focus on ASEAN countries. Tracking the changes in centrality from January 2000 to June 2020, we find no evidence that centrality changed significantly after the pandemic started for most ASEAN countries. Our results suggest that the relative importance of the ASEAN countries in the world trade network is unchanged and will remain unchanged even after the pandemic.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

8. How Is the Asian Economy Recovering from the COVID-19 Pandemic? Evidence from the Emissions of Air Pollutants

Author:
Kazunobu Hayakawa
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This study empirically examines how economic and social activities in Asia were affected by the COVID-19 pandemic by using the emissions amounts of various air pollutants to represent those activities. Review of the emissions data suggests that from 2019 to 2020, the amount of emitted air pollutants decreased in most subnational regions in Asia. Data also show how economic and social activities have restarted in some regions; regression analyses are used to uncover the regions that restarted early. Regional characteristics are identified by employing a remotely sensed land cover dataset (i.e. ESALC) and OpenStreetMap. Results reveal that for Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members, economic and social activities in cropland, industrial estates, accommodations, restaurants, education, and public services still have not returned to normal.
Topic:
Environment, Economy, Pandemic, COVID-19, Air Pollution, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

9. The COVID-19 Pandemic, Air Transport Perturbation, and Sector Impacts in ASEAN Plus Five: A Multiregional Input–Output Inoperability Analysis

Author:
Tamat Sarmidi, Norlin Khalid, Sufian Jusoh, and Muhamad Rias K.V. Zainuddin
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This study simulates the sector impacts of demand-side perturbations on air transport sectors due to the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on ASEAN members plus Australia, China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and New Zealand. This study involves (i) the generation of a multiregional input–output table from the latest Global Trade Analysis Project data, (ii) a network analysis to determine the importance of the air transport industry in each country, (iii) multiplier and linkages analyses, (iv) determinations of sector impacts from demand-side perturbations on air transport sectors due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and (v) simulation of the effect of fiscal and monetary measures to mitigate the pandemic’s impact. This study demonstrates that the aviation industry is a key sector in domestic and regional economic activities, and the reduction in air transport consumer demand due to the pandemic is estimated to cause gross domestic product (GDP) reductions from 0.4% to 2.1%. Government intervention, through fiscal and monetary policies, has, however, mitigated severe impact, moderating GDP and value-added losses. Thus, a viable policy prescription for the aviation industry is of utmost importance.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Travel
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

10. COVID-19 and Services Trade in ASEAN+6: Implications and Estimates from Structural Gravity

Author:
Anirudh Shingal
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Given the importance of services for economic activity in general and the salience of reducing service link costs for overcoming the economic and health challenges emanating from COVID-19, we examine the implications of the pandemic for services trade in the original group of ASEAN+6 countries that began negotiating the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement. Our analysis reveals that with the exception of the Philippines and Viet Nam for services exports, and Cambodia and India for services imports, up to half of total services trade for all other sample countries could be adversely affected by the pandemic. In the absence of bilateral services trade data for 2020, we proxy the impact of COVID-19 on services trade using bilateral data on announced greenfield investment in services sectors from fDi Markets. Structural gravity estimates suggest that a 1% increase in COVID-19-related deaths in the source country may have reduced ASEAN+6 bilateral greenfield investment by US$0.15 million in 2020 relative to the corresponding value in 2019.
Topic:
Investment, Services, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

11. The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Production Sharing in East Asia

Author:
Archanun Kohpaiboon and Juthatip Jongwanich
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper examines the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on global production sharing in ASEAN Member States. Product-level analysis – on hard disk drives, air conditioners, microwaves, televisions, washing machines, and automotive parts – is undertaken to examine trade patterns between January 2019 and October/November 2020. The key finding suggests that the pandemic caused parts shortages, but this effect has been short-lived. There is no strong evidence that multi-national enterprises have altered their supply chains or means of sourcing parts and components in response to the pandemic. There is some indication that multi-national enterprises are moving away from China, but whether this reflects a ‘COVID-19 effect’ or the trade war between the United States and China is not clear. COVID-19, a once-in-a-century event, may not alone be a compelling reason to restructure supply chain management relating to global production sharing, which has been a structural phenomenon driving economic globalisation.
Topic:
Globalization, Pandemic, COVID-19, Supply Chains, and Production
Political Geography:
East Asia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

12. COVID-19 and Socio-Economic Inequalities in Indonesia: A Subnational-level Analysis

Author:
Aloysius Gunadi Brata, Eusebius Pantja Pramudya, Esther Sri Astuti, Heffi Christya Rahayu, and Heronimus Heron
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This study examines if COVID-19 has worsened socio-economic inequalities across provinces in Indonesia, and if it has affected the spatial disparity in provincial-level socio-economic indicators. Secondary provincial-level data are used from BPS for March 2015 to March 2020. Results indicate that provinces with more COVID-19 cases tend to have increased inequality in urban areas, but inequality in rural areas decreases, as measured by the Gini Index. Also, provinces with many COVID-19 cases tend to have a decrease in their poverty headcount ratios. Thus, COVID-19 may have various implications on the spatial inequality of the Gini Index and poverty headcount ratio.
Topic:
Inequality, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Socioeconomics
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

13. Facilitating Trade in Pharmaceuticals: A Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
Ben Shepherd
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper reviews trade in pharmaceutical products, focusing on ASEAN countries. Trade in this sector is of singular policy importance as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. First, the paper shows that pharmaceuticals are traded within Global Value Chains, which in turn means that international linkages are complex. Second, the paper shows that policy reforms can help boost trade in the sector, which has important human development implications during the pandemic period.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Pandemic, Global Value Chains, COVID-19, and Pharmaceuticals
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

14. Could the COVID-19 Crisis Affect Remittances and Labour Supply in ASEAN Economies? Macroeconomic Conjectures Based on the SARS Epidemic

Author:
Alberto Posso
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Debates on resilience to economic shocks in the ASEAN region focus on what policymakers can do to mitigate negative impacts associated with financial-economic crises. The COVID-19 pandemic has made it clear that the region is also vulnerable to health-economic crises. This study applies a difference-in-difference strategy to data from the 2003 SARS epidemic to shed light on how a global pandemic can affect labour supply and remittances in ASEAN economies. Findings suggest that even a relatively short-lived epidemic can have long-lasting effects on labour supply.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Supply
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

15. Financial Market Responses to Government COVID-19 Pandemic Interventions: Empirical Evidence from South-East and East Asia

Author:
Hai Anh La and Riyana Miranti
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This study investigates the impact of various government interventions on the spread of COVID-19 as well as stock markets in South-East and East Asia. It finds that stricter interventions – including gathering restrictions, public event cancellations, and mask requirements – helped mitigate the severity of the pandemic significantly in the region. Total border closures had a moderate effect on flattening COVID-19 spread, especially during the onset of the pandemic. Other policies, such as school closures or stay-at-home orders, worked effectively later in the pandemic. The study also shows evidence of herding behaviours in regional stock markets during the pandemic. School closures, gathering restrictions, stay-at-home orders, domestic travelling bans, robust testing policies, and government income support programmes tended to reduce herding behaviour. More stock market integration is found during the onset of the pandemic, compared to the periods before and later in the pandemic, implying the short-term impact of a sudden shock from COVID-19.
Topic:
Governance, Financial Markets, Pandemic, COVID-19, Stock Markets, and Financial Development
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

16. How ASEAN Can Improve Its Response to the Economic Crisis Generated by the COVID-19 Pandemic: Inputs drawn from a comparative analysis of the ASEAN and EU responses

Author:
Antonio Fanelli
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper conducts a comparative review of the evolution of the economic crisis generated by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and the responses enacted by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the European Union. It highlights differences and common elements in the strategic approaches, the intensity of the interventions, and governance structures. In the final section, it identifies short- and medium-term actions, inspired by the comparative analysis, which could contribute to improve the ASEAN response.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Governance, European Union, Leadership, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and Southeast Asia

17. East Asian Production Networks Amidst the COVID-19 Shock

Author:
Ayako Obashi
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
In the East Asian context, previous studies showed that trade occurring through production networks remained relatively steady amidst an economic shock and recovered faster and stronger once the shock was over. Using finely disaggregated product-level monthly bilateral trade data, we examine whether network trade in the East Asian region has been robust and resilient in face of the COVID-19 crisis, as well as in normal times, by conducting a series of survival analyses. We find a new set of empirical evidence suggesting the robustness of East Asian network trade in normal times and its resilience even amidst the COVID-19 shock.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Production
Political Geography:
East Asia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

18. A ‘She-session’? The Impact of COVID-19 on the Labour Market in Thailand

Author:
Sasiwimon W. Paweenawat and Lusi Liao
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper studies the impact of COVID-19 on different demographic groups in the Thai labour market using the Labour Force Survey in 2018 and 2019. We construct a new set of COVID-19 impact indicators capturing both the degree of risk in industries and degree of occupational flexibility in the Thai context. Our results show that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is highly unequal across demographic groups and it may further worsen the pre-existing inequality in the Thai labour market as a result of the composition of industrial sectors and occupations. The results suggest that education attainments and income levels play a significant role in protecting individuals from the current crisis, indicating the important contribution of human capital. In addition, marriage affects men and women differently in the COVID-19 crisis, with married women suffering more. Finally, our study highlights the need for government supports that target vulnerable groups, including workers with low education, informal workers, private employees, older women, and the young, who are more likely to be affected by COVID-19.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Governance, Employment, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Asia, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

19. COVID-19 Tourism Recovery in the ASEAN and East Asia Region: Asymmetric Patterns and Implications

Author:
Stathis Polyzos, Anestis Fotiadis, and Aristedidis Samitas
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to produce forecasts for tourism flows and tourism revenue for ASEAN and East Asian countries after the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. By implementing two different machine-learning methodologies (the Long Short Term Memory neural network and the Generalised Additive Model) and using different training data sets, we aim to forecast the recovery patterns for these data series for the first 12 months after the end of crisis. We thus produce a baseline forecast, based on the averages of our different models, as well as a worst- and best-case scenario. We show that recovery is asymmetric across the group of countries in the ASEAN and East Asian region and that recovery in tourism revenue is generally slower than in tourist arrivals. We show significant losses of approximately 48%, persistent after 12 months, for some countries, while others display increases of approximately 40% when compared to pre-crisis levels. Our work aims to quantify the projected drop in tourist arrivals and tourism revenue for ASEAN and East Asian countries over the coming months. The results of the proposed research can be used by policymakers as they determine recovery plans, where tourism will undoubtedly play a very important role.
Topic:
Tourism, Economy, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

20. How Do Sectoral Employment Structures Affect Mobility during the COVID-19 Pandemic?

Author:
Donny Pasaribu, Deasy Pane, and Yudi Suwarna
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
As people’s mobility determines the spread of COVID-19 virus, this paper scrutinises factors that drive their mobility responses during the pandemic. Utilising Google mobility data, labour force statistics and daily COVID-19 data, this study finds that mobility changes are induced by various heterogeneous behavioural responses across provinces in Indonesia. Variations in the pre-pandemic labour structure, people’s perception of health risks and local policy settings define the mobility changes. In addition, behavioural responses are larger in the early pandemic phase, indicating the importance of arrangements to manage the situation in the early period.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Mobility, Public Health, Pandemic, Job Creation, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

21. The Effect of Non-Tariff Measures on Global Value Chain Participation

Author:
Upalat Korwatanasakul
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This study examines the impact of non-tariff measures (NTMs) on global value chain (GVC) participation and the underlying mechanisms. Our study employs a novel approach using an additional compliance requirement indicator as a relative proxy for NTMs to measure their impact on GVC participation. We conduct a cross-sectional analysis at the industry level, spanning 19 industrial sectors in 30 countries in 2015. We combine our additional compliance requirement indicator dataset calculated from NTM data in the Trade Analysis Information System, with our dataset on trade in value added estimated from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Inter-Country Input–Output Table. Our analysis finds that, while NTMs and tariffs both negatively impact backward GVC participation, the impact of NTMs is greater than that of tariff measures. Moreover, the estimated results show that inward foreign direct investment is positively associated with backward GVC participation. Therefore, policies that reduce trade costs from policy barriers, especially NTMs, and attract more foreign direct investment can help promote GVC participation.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Industry, Global Value Chains, and Non-Tariff Measures
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

22. The Effects of SPSs and TBTs on Innovation: Evidence from Exporting Firms in Viet Nam

Author:
Duc Anh Dang and Vuong Anh Dang
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures and technical barriers to trade (TBTs) in destination markets may affect firms’ performance. In this paper, we examine how meeting foreign standards affects exporting firms’ innovation, reflected in the product quality, production processes, skills, and technological acquisition. The analysis relies on official regulations on non-tariff measures released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and panel data for manufacturing firms in Viet Nam during 2013–2015. To correct for the potential endogeneity of SPS measures and TBTs and measurement errors, we use the number of SPS measures and TBTs imposed on other Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Member States as an instrument variable. Our results indicate that a higher number of SPS measures and TBTs applied by destination countries increases the probability of Vietnamese exporting firms’ skill acquisition. SPS measures also have higher positive impacts on product quality improvement and skill acquisition in the food processing sector. The SPS measures and TBTs have larger impacts on small firms than large firms. Foreign firms tend to acquire more technology and skills than domestic firms when facing SPS measures and TBTs by importing countries. Higher SPS measures and TBTs have more effects on the probability of acquiring skills by state-owned firms. However, the propensity of product quality and technological acquisition of non-state firms is much higher than that of state-owned firms when facing a greater level of SPS measures and TBTs.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, Governance, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

23. Tracking the Ups and Downs in Indonesia’s Economic Activity During COVID-19 Using Mobility Index: Evidence from Provinces in Java and Bali

Author:
Yose Rizal Damuri, Prabaning Tyas, Haryo Aswicahyono, Lionel Priyadi, Stella Kusumawardhani, and Ega Kurnia Yazid
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
A timely and reliable prediction of economic activities is crucial in policymaking, especially in the current COVID-19 pandemic situation, which requires real-time decisions. However, making frequent predictions is challenging due to the substantial delays in releasing aggregate economic data. This study aims to nowcast Indonesia’s economic activities during the COVID-19 pandemic using the novel high-frequency Facebook Mobility Index as a predictor. Employing mixed-frequency, mixed-data sampling, and benchmark least-squares models, we expanded the mobility index and used it to track the growth dynamics of the gross regional domestic product of provinces in Java and Bali and performed a bottom-up approach to estimate the aggregated economic growth of the provinces altogether. Our results suggested that the daily Facebook Mobility Index was a considerably reliable predictor for projecting economic activities on time. All models almost consistently produced reliable directional predictions. Notably, we found the mixed data sampling-autoregressive model to be slightly superior to the other models in terms of overall precision and directional predictive accuracy across observations.
Topic:
GDP, Economy, Mobility, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

24. Economic and Emission Impact of Australia–China Trade Disruption: Implication for Regional Economic Integration

Author:
Xunpeng Shi, Tsun Se Cheong, and Michael Zhou
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This study examines the debates on supply chain resilience and the economic and emissions impact of supply chain rerouting using Australia and China trade as an example. The estimations demonstrate that, in both export and import cases, a trade embargo between Australia and China, despite being compensated by alternative supply chains, will cause gross domestic product loss and emissions increases for both countries. Moreover, even if all other countries gain from the markets left by China, many of them suffer from overall gross domestic product loss and emissions increase. The findings that ASEAN and China may also suffer from an Australia–China trade embargo, despite a gain in trade volume, suggests that no country should add fuel to the fire. The results suggest that countries need to defend rules-based trading regimes and continuously promote regional economic integration.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Economy, Global Value Chains, Carbon Emissions, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Australia, and Southeast Asia

25. East Asian Integration and Its Main Challenge: NTMs in Australia, China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea, and New Zealand

Author:
Yan Lili Ing and Grace Hadiwidjaja
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
While East Asia has been moving forward with its regional integration agenda, one main challenge remains and is growing – non-tariff measures (NTMs). Animal, vegetable, and food products tend to be more regulated than other products, largely due to quality and safety standards. NTMs affect 66%–98% of total trade in those sectors. Our paper presents the frequency index, coverage ratio, and prevalence score to measure NTMs in the region. They are highest amongst food, vegetable, and animal products; and vary amongst other products, depending on the economy. We find that the high frequency index of NTMs does not necessarily translate to a high value of coverage ratio for trade. One explanation could be that countries tend to regulate imported goods which compete with the domestic products more than imported goods which they need.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Tariffs, Non-Tariff Measures, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Japan, China, India, Asia, South Korea, Australia, Southeast Asia, and New Zealand

26. Feeling the Pulse of Global Value Chains: Air Cargo and COVID-19

Author:
Christopher Findlay, Hein Roelfsema, and Niall Van De Wouw
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper focuses on air cargo market development, with special attention to the connections between countries in Asia, the European Union, and the United States. Before the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) crisis, we show that participation in global value chains played a crucial role in how countries in Asia increased their exposure to the European Union market, which was hit hardest by the COVID-19 crisis. Analysing the effects of the crisis in 2020- using a fuzzy set complexity approach and recent high-frequency data on air cargo transport - we show that such demand effects, together with domestic contraction conditions, explain a large share of variation in air cargo dynamics across countries in Asia. However, we also show that implementing best practices in pandemic control positively impacts air cargo recovery for countries that cannot rely on export market rebounds. After reviewing the convergence in air cargo business models since 2010, the paper continues to assess recovery options. The main conclusion is that business models will converge on long haul point-to-point models that combine passengers and cargo, moving away from the current hub and spoke system.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Pandemic, Global Value Chains, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

27. Exploring Digital Economic Agreements to Promote Digital Connectivity in ASEAN

Author:
Sarah Y. Tong, Yao Li, and Tuan Yuen Kong
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper explores modules and articles on cooperation concerning the digital economy that are applicable for Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries under certain circumstances. It investigates the progress of and obstacles to ASEAN’s digital connectivity, as well as features of existing Digital Economic Agreements and digital economy-related articles in other agreements. We propose the use of a differentiated strategy and steps to promote integration for ASEAN countries covered in this research.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Digital Economy, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

28. Effective Rates of Protection in a World With Non-Tariff Measures and Supply Chains: Evidence from ASEAN

Author:
Ben Shepherd
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The concept of effective rate of protection expresses protection on a sector’s final output relative to protection affecting its inputs. As such, it is well adapted to analysing the effects of trade policy from a supply chain standpoint. This paper makes two contributions to the literature on effective rates of protection. First, it draws on the literature on trade in value added to highlight an alternative to the traditional measure that better accounts for supply chain trade by considering both direct and indirect input use. Second, it includes data on ad valorem equivalents of non-tariff measures, which are increasingly important as trade policy instruments. In an analysis covering 17 aggregate goods sectors, I find that average tariff only effective rates of protection in ASEAN averaged 6.9% and ranged from zero to 23.4% in 2018. By contrast, effective rates including non-tariff measures averaged 14.0% and ranged from –6.2% to 44.0%. While patterns of escalation and even effective taxation differ substantially across sectors, most countries practice a tariff and NTM trade policy that is broadly neutral between input and output sectors, but which causes low to moderate isolation from world markets. Given the complexity of tariffs and NTMs from a supply chain perspective, there would likely be reductions in economic waste accompanying substantial simplification.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Protectionism, Non-Tariff Measures, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

29. Reconciling Tax and Trade Rules in the Digitalised Economy: Challenges for ASEAN and East Asia

Author:
Jane Kelsey
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
As the digital economy expands in scale, scope, and form it poses major challenges for public revenue and tax policy and administration in Asia and other parts of the global South. When attempts led by developed countries at the OECD-led Inclusive Framework on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) to agree on new norms for taxing digital giants like Facebook, Google, and Amazon stalled, individual countries, including a number of developing countries in Asia, began developing their own responses, notably the adoption of digital services taxes. High-level compromises have recently been announced at the OECD, but the details are yet to come and are not expected to address the needs of developing countries to effectively tax the activities of digital giants operating from offshore. As countries seek effective and workable means to tax the digitalised economy, existing and proposed international rules on digital trade in free trade agreements, and plurilateral moves to develop electronic commerce rules in the World Trade Organization, may fetter their ability to do so. To date, very little attention has been paid in trade negotiations to the consequences of these developments for countries’ tax regimes. Nor have the adequacy, effectiveness, and workability of the tax exceptions in trade and investment agreements been properly re-assessed. Many governments are only becoming aware that trade rules may constrains their ability to regulate the (poorly understood and fast moving) digital domain after they have signed up to them. A series of investigations by the US government under Section 301 of the US Trade Act 1974 into digital services taxes, including those adopted by India and proposed by Indonesia, provides a real-world basis on which to assess how binding and enforceable digital trade rules might be used to challenge digital tax measures at the unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral levels. In highlighting these risks, the paper aims to provide a framework for the tax and trade divisions of governments in ASEAN and East Asia to reflect together on the potential for proposed digital trade rules to impact negatively on their public revenue.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Digital Economy, Tax Systems, Commerce, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

30. A Firm-level Analysis of the Impact of the Coronavirus Outbreak in ASEAN

Author:
Wasim Ahmad, Rishman Jot Kaur Chahal, and Shirin Rais
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This study examines the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on economic integration in the ASEAN-6 region. The study finds that the pandemic’s impact can be easily traced using stringency, bilateral exports, and tourist arrivals, indicating significant implications for the economic integration process. The firm-level analysis suggests that although the coronavirus outbreak’s uniformly impacted firms, the extent of the effect varies across ASEAN-6 nations. Large firms are strongly impacted by the pandemic. Overall, the findings of this study are relevant for policymakers and academia.
Topic:
Tourism, Global Markets, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

31. Central Banks' Responses to COVID-19 in ASEAN Economies

Author:
Charan Singh and Panitra Kumar Jena
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on public health, social life, economic conditions, and financial markets has been significant for Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies. The main objective of this study is to understand the response of central banks to COVID-19 in 10 ASEAN economies, i.e., Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. In this study, panel data as well as time-series data have been used to see the impact of COVID-19 on macroeconomic variables and financial variables. The period of the study ranges from 23 January 2020 to 11 December 2020. The first part of the study shows the trend analysis of macroeconomic variables of ASEAN economies and a descriptive analysis of various measures taken by the central banks of ASEAN economics. Further, a comparative analysis of monetary measures with advanced countries is depicted. Further, empirical findings of ARCH and GARCH indicate that recent as well as past COVID-19 news has a significant impact on stock market volatility in select ASEAN countries.
Topic:
Banks, Fiscal Policy, Pandemic, COVID-19, Financial Institutions, and Banking
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

32. COVID-19 and Regional Solutions for Mitigating the Risk of Small and Medium-sized Enterprise Finance in ASEAN Member States

Author:
Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, Han Phoumin, and Ehsan Rasoulinezhad
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
One of the significant challenges small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) face is their difficulty in accessing finance. One way to reduce the risk of lending to SMEs is through the credit guarantee scheme (CGS). In this paper, we assess the determining factors of the optimal credit guarantee ratio for the banking industry in four Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, namely Indonesia, Singapore, the Philippines, and Malaysia, by employing statistical techniques and econometric models. The empirical findings prove that the loan default ratio (nonperforming loan/loan, or NPL/L) is the optimal credit guarantee ratio’s main determining factor. Our empirical findings confirm that in the ASEAN region, to help SMEs survive in the emergency stage of COVID-19, the credit guarantee ratio needs to be increased. Gradually, when moving to the new normal stage, the ratio needs to be lessened. Our results show that the credit guarantee ratio should vary for different countries based on the macroeconomic climate and also for each bank or, in other words, for banks with similar financial soundness. Governments should give a higher guarantee ratio to sound banks, whilst less healthy banks should receive a lower guarantee ratio. The study also provides policy recommendations for establishing a regional credit guarantee scheme in ASEAN to promote regional economic cooperation at the SME level for greater economic integration.
Topic:
Finance, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Credit
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

33. Aviation Market Development in the New Normal Post the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Analysis of Air Connectivity and Business Travel

Author:
Xiaowen Fu, David A. Hensher, Nicole T. T. Chen, and Junbiao Su
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This study quantifies the effects introduced by the COVID-19 pandemic on air connectivity and passenger travel behaviour. Our analysis suggests that the pandemic has led to significant connectivity loss at all airports, especially at large hubs and tourism destinations. Low-cost carriers’ operations at these airports, whose main targets are price-sensitive, non-business travellers, have been significantly reduced, too. There is preliminary evidence that network carriers at hub airports played more important roles amid the pandemic, likely due to the benefits associated with their hub-and-spoke networks. Connectivity losses at the smallest airports tended to be temporary and limited. These airports had limited aviation services to start with and, thus, it was not too costly to maintain the minimum connectivity. Empirical results obtained from a passenger preference study indicate that traveller subgroups are impacted in different ways. When there is no online meeting option, nearly 80% of the respondents prefer, and are willing to pay for, pandemic control measures. These ‘pro-control’ passengers perceive such measures and the associated high costs/fares as valuable and necessary to lower the health-related risks during air travel. When there is an online meeting option, the share of such passengers decreases to 44.5%, with the remaining 55.5% exhibiting disutility for the increased price and time associated with pandemic control measures. The average willingness-to-pay for pandemic control measures decreases significantly, whereas the value of time saved at health checkpoints increases significantly. The aviation industry thus faces a ‘double-hit’ problem: operation costs will increase due to pandemic control measures, and the resultant inconvenience and extra time and costs further reduce travel demand. Unlike previous short pandemics, business travel is likely to suffer with an extended decline until the pandemic is fully controlled. These results call for financial and operational support for aviation services, especially at major airports and tourism destinations. Because these large airports are expected to be profitable post the pandemic, they may resort to low-cost finance from the capital market in the short term. Because the value of time saved at checkpoints is very high, it is more important for government agencies to make the pandemic control and health measures efficient and smooth. For operations such as vaccination records, stakeholders in different countries should cooperate to facilitate seamless control and pleasant air travel experiences.
Topic:
Development, Financial Markets, Business, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Travel
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

34. COVID-19, Air Transportation, and International Trade in the ASEAN+5 Region

Author:
Anming Zhang, Xiaoqian Sun, Sebastian Wandelt, Yahua Zhang, Shiteng Su, and Ronghua Shen
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper provides an in-depth description of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and its interactions with air transportation in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)+5 region, and then links the changes in air connectivity to trade using a gravity regression model. We find that almost all the countries probably reacted too late in their decision to reduce flights in the early stage of the pandemic. As the pandemic evolved, most countries have significantly cut the number of flight connections, especially international flights. The reduced connectivity is found to have a significantly negative impact on trade for time-sensitive merchandise that is essential to consumers and businesses. This points to the importance of the region seeking alternative arrangements to restore air connectivity. We offer a way to construct optimal travel bubbles by using risk indexes introduced here. Other policy issues such as uniform standards and regulations, and regional ‘open skies’, are also discussed.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Travel
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

35. Regulatory Distance, Margins of Trade, and Regional Integration: The Case of the ASEAN+5

Author:
Chandran Govindaraju, Neil Foster-McGregor, and Evelyn Shyamala Devadason
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper measures regulatory distance in non-tariff measures (NTMs) to examine the regulatory distance patterns and how the margins of trade respond to regulatory distance for the ASEAN+5 economies (the 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations Member States plus Australia, China, India, Japan and New Zealand). It decomposes the margins of trade and regulatory distance by sector (agriculture and manufacturing) and NTM type (technical, non-technical, sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS), technical barriers to trade (TBTs), and pre-shipment inspections and other measures) for the 15 countries. At the country level, the results indicate a varying regulatory distance amongst the ASEAN+5 countries. Regulatory implementation also varies by sector and by the type of measure. Within sectors, SPS regulatory distance is higher in the agriculture sector, while for manufacturing, the regulatory distance in TBTs is higher. Notably, few countries recorded a higher regulatory distance for non-technical measures and pre-shipment inspections. Interestingly, for the ASEAN region, there seems to be no evidence supporting a reduction in regulatory distance from 2015 to 2018, despite efforts to harmonise NTMs since 2015. The results indicate that regulatory distance largely has a trade-reducing effect along the trade margins within ASEAN+5 bilateral trade. Technical measures have a greater trade-reducing effect than other measures along extensive and intensive trade margins – specifically SPS in the agriculture sector and TBTs in the manufacturing sector. Notably, there is also evidence of non-technical measures and pre-shipments and other formalities impacting trade along extensive margins, despite efforts to establish trade facilitation. The paper also describes some policy implications.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Regulation, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

36. Robustness and Resilience of Supply Chains During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Findings from a Questionnaire Survey on the Supply Chain Links of Firms in ASEAN and India

Author:
Yasuyuki Todo, Keita Oikawa, Masahito Ambashi, Fukunari Kimura, and Shujiro Urata
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Using a unique firm-level data set from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and India collected from November 2020 to February 2021, this paper examines how the robustness and resilience of supply chain links – i.e. maintaining links and substituting another for a disrupted partner, respectively – were determined when firms faced economic shocks due to the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Focusing on the role of the characteristics of firms’ supply chains, we find that homophily, i.e. the tendency to form a group with similar agents, was often associated with the robustness of supply chain links, most likely because of the strength of homophilous ties. In particular, when a foreign-owned firm had a supply chain link with a firm located in the same country as its home country, the link was quite robust. We also find that the geographic diversity of customers and suppliers creates resilience of supply chains. When the demand or supply from a partner of a firm was disrupted because of COVID-19, the firm likely mitigated the damage from the disruption through substitution of partners if its supply chains were well diversified across countries. In addition, larger or younger firms tended to be resilient and robust. The robustness and resilience of supply chains are found to have led to higher performance.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Pandemic, Resilience, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
India, Asia, and Southeast Asia

37. Paul D. Kenny: Populism And The War On Drugs In Southeast Asia

Author:
Paul D. Kenny
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Rodrigo Duterte promised in his campaign for the Philippine presidency that he would dump the corpses of the country’s drug dealers and addicts into Manilla Bay and “fatten all the fish there.” He boasted of pushing criminals out of helicopters. He promised death on the scale of Hitler. “God will weep if I become president,” he said.
Topic:
Crime, International Law, War on Drugs, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Philippines, Thailand, Southeast Asia, Laos, and Myanmar