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1. Sanitation Marketing in Tajikistan: Business model for sustainable WASH market development

Author:
Orkhan Ali
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) remains a critical problem in Tajikistan, particularly for its rural areas. In terms of sanitation and the market within which it operates locally, there have been no sectoral tools on market-based WASH programming in Tajikistan, and therefore little available guidance around the facilitation of better interactions between the demand and supply of sanitation products. And while specified state departments are responsible for applying and upholding sanitation standards, in practice they continue to rely on guidelines from Soviet times, and rarely carry out household-level inspections – hence the legal frameworks governing sanitation should be revised accordingly. To fill this gap, Oxfam launched its first sanitation marketing programme in 2018 (as part of its wider Tajikistan Water Supply and Sanitation (TajWSS) Project funded by the Swiss Government) and played a market broker role that transformed the relationship between buyers and sellers of sanitation products. The project approached the process by influencing both supply and demand sides, and by designing affordable and desirable trading processes for rural households to meet their sanitation needs.
Topic:
Development, Infrastructure, Sanitation, Public Health, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Asia, and Tajikistan

2. Decentralised Sanitation Solutions in Tajikistan: Decentralised wastewater treatment systems (DEWATS) in peri-urban and urban areas in Tajikistan

Author:
Orkhan Ali
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
An important milestone for the sanitation sector was the adoption by the UN of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets 6.2 (safely managed sanitation and hygiene services) and 6.3 (reducing the portion of untreated wastewater), which focus on managing the entire sanitation service chain. Tajikistan has been at the forefront of promoting these at global level. Meanwhile, the fourth initiative of the President of Tajikistan on the International Decade for Action on Water for Sustainable Development, 2018–20281 is being implemented at national level. Over the past decade, sanitation has been given low priority within the focus areas of water sector reform. For example, not all aspects of regulations have been duly revised to adopt new technologies. In addition, many regulations for wastewater treatment remain outdated and pose legal constraints for testing new approaches in the country. The Tajikistan Water Supply and Sanitation (TajWSS) (Phase III) project piloted a decentralised wastewater treatment system (DEWATS) in the peri-urban Rudaki district in Tajikistan with two hospitals with the aim of scaling up to national level. This learning paper showcases the project findings, assessments and lessons learned in application of the DEWATS.
Topic:
Development, Infrastructure, Sanitation, Public Health, and Hygiene
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Asia, and Tajikistan

3. East Asian Production Networks Amidst the COVID-19 Shock

Author:
Ayako Obashi
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
In the East Asian context, previous studies showed that trade occurring through production networks remained relatively steady amidst an economic shock and recovered faster and stronger once the shock was over. Using finely disaggregated product-level monthly bilateral trade data, we examine whether network trade in the East Asian region has been robust and resilient in face of the COVID-19 crisis, as well as in normal times, by conducting a series of survival analyses. We find a new set of empirical evidence suggesting the robustness of East Asian network trade in normal times and its resilience even amidst the COVID-19 shock.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Production
Political Geography:
East Asia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

4. COVID-19 Tourism Recovery in the ASEAN and East Asia Region: Asymmetric Patterns and Implications

Author:
Stathis Polyzos, Anestis Fotiadis, and Aristedidis Samitas
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to produce forecasts for tourism flows and tourism revenue for ASEAN and East Asian countries after the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. By implementing two different machine-learning methodologies (the Long Short Term Memory neural network and the Generalised Additive Model) and using different training data sets, we aim to forecast the recovery patterns for these data series for the first 12 months after the end of crisis. We thus produce a baseline forecast, based on the averages of our different models, as well as a worst- and best-case scenario. We show that recovery is asymmetric across the group of countries in the ASEAN and East Asian region and that recovery in tourism revenue is generally slower than in tourist arrivals. We show significant losses of approximately 48%, persistent after 12 months, for some countries, while others display increases of approximately 40% when compared to pre-crisis levels. Our work aims to quantify the projected drop in tourist arrivals and tourism revenue for ASEAN and East Asian countries over the coming months. The results of the proposed research can be used by policymakers as they determine recovery plans, where tourism will undoubtedly play a very important role.
Topic:
Tourism, Economy, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

5. How Do Sectoral Employment Structures Affect Mobility during the COVID-19 Pandemic?

Author:
Donny Pasaribu, Deasy Pane, and Yudi Suwarna
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
As people’s mobility determines the spread of COVID-19 virus, this paper scrutinises factors that drive their mobility responses during the pandemic. Utilising Google mobility data, labour force statistics and daily COVID-19 data, this study finds that mobility changes are induced by various heterogeneous behavioural responses across provinces in Indonesia. Variations in the pre-pandemic labour structure, people’s perception of health risks and local policy settings define the mobility changes. In addition, behavioural responses are larger in the early pandemic phase, indicating the importance of arrangements to manage the situation in the early period.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Mobility, Public Health, Pandemic, Job Creation, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

6. Domestic Tourism as a Pathway to Revive the Tourism Industry and Business Post the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
Jennifer Chan
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This research aims to explore the potential of domestic tourism as a means to revitalise the tourism industry from the perspectives of local residents and tourism players. A quantitative online survey focused on domestic travel behaviour, motivation, places of interest, travel preferences, and willingness to travel within Malaysia; it was answered by 219 Malaysians. Interview data were collected using structured, open-ended interview questions through emails to eight respondents from tourism associations, five from the hotel sector, and two from the travel and tour sector. Data collection was carried out from 10 January to 15 February 2021. The findings reveal that domestic tourism has the potential to revive the tourism industry. A high percentage of respondents indicated the desire to travel domestically and being motivated by attractive tour packages at discounted prices. COVID-19 has impacted tourist behaviour and attitudes towards travelling, and people prefer to travel domestically rather than overseas. Furthermore, tourism players acknowledged the potential to revive the tourism industry and business via domestic tourism. Despite this, declarations of health, safety issues, flight availability, travel restrictions, and quarantine durations are key barriers to stimulating domestic tourism and rebuilding the tourism industry.
Topic:
Tourism, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Malaysia and Asia

7. A Firm-level Analysis of the Impact of the Coronavirus Outbreak in ASEAN

Author:
Wasim Ahmad, Rishman Jot Kaur Chahal, and Shirin Rais
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This study examines the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on economic integration in the ASEAN-6 region. The study finds that the pandemic’s impact can be easily traced using stringency, bilateral exports, and tourist arrivals, indicating significant implications for the economic integration process. The firm-level analysis suggests that although the coronavirus outbreak’s uniformly impacted firms, the extent of the effect varies across ASEAN-6 nations. Large firms are strongly impacted by the pandemic. Overall, the findings of this study are relevant for policymakers and academia.
Topic:
Tourism, Global Markets, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

8. COVID-19 and Regional Solutions for Mitigating the Risk of Small and Medium-sized Enterprise Finance in ASEAN Member States

Author:
Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, Han Phoumin, and Ehsan Rasoulinezhad
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
One of the significant challenges small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) face is their difficulty in accessing finance. One way to reduce the risk of lending to SMEs is through the credit guarantee scheme (CGS). In this paper, we assess the determining factors of the optimal credit guarantee ratio for the banking industry in four Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, namely Indonesia, Singapore, the Philippines, and Malaysia, by employing statistical techniques and econometric models. The empirical findings prove that the loan default ratio (nonperforming loan/loan, or NPL/L) is the optimal credit guarantee ratio’s main determining factor. Our empirical findings confirm that in the ASEAN region, to help SMEs survive in the emergency stage of COVID-19, the credit guarantee ratio needs to be increased. Gradually, when moving to the new normal stage, the ratio needs to be lessened. Our results show that the credit guarantee ratio should vary for different countries based on the macroeconomic climate and also for each bank or, in other words, for banks with similar financial soundness. Governments should give a higher guarantee ratio to sound banks, whilst less healthy banks should receive a lower guarantee ratio. The study also provides policy recommendations for establishing a regional credit guarantee scheme in ASEAN to promote regional economic cooperation at the SME level for greater economic integration.
Topic:
Finance, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Credit
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

9. Aviation Market Development in the New Normal Post the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Analysis of Air Connectivity and Business Travel

Author:
Xiaowen Fu, David A. Hensher, Nicole T. T. Chen, and Junbiao Su
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This study quantifies the effects introduced by the COVID-19 pandemic on air connectivity and passenger travel behaviour. Our analysis suggests that the pandemic has led to significant connectivity loss at all airports, especially at large hubs and tourism destinations. Low-cost carriers’ operations at these airports, whose main targets are price-sensitive, non-business travellers, have been significantly reduced, too. There is preliminary evidence that network carriers at hub airports played more important roles amid the pandemic, likely due to the benefits associated with their hub-and-spoke networks. Connectivity losses at the smallest airports tended to be temporary and limited. These airports had limited aviation services to start with and, thus, it was not too costly to maintain the minimum connectivity. Empirical results obtained from a passenger preference study indicate that traveller subgroups are impacted in different ways. When there is no online meeting option, nearly 80% of the respondents prefer, and are willing to pay for, pandemic control measures. These ‘pro-control’ passengers perceive such measures and the associated high costs/fares as valuable and necessary to lower the health-related risks during air travel. When there is an online meeting option, the share of such passengers decreases to 44.5%, with the remaining 55.5% exhibiting disutility for the increased price and time associated with pandemic control measures. The average willingness-to-pay for pandemic control measures decreases significantly, whereas the value of time saved at health checkpoints increases significantly. The aviation industry thus faces a ‘double-hit’ problem: operation costs will increase due to pandemic control measures, and the resultant inconvenience and extra time and costs further reduce travel demand. Unlike previous short pandemics, business travel is likely to suffer with an extended decline until the pandemic is fully controlled. These results call for financial and operational support for aviation services, especially at major airports and tourism destinations. Because these large airports are expected to be profitable post the pandemic, they may resort to low-cost finance from the capital market in the short term. Because the value of time saved at checkpoints is very high, it is more important for government agencies to make the pandemic control and health measures efficient and smooth. For operations such as vaccination records, stakeholders in different countries should cooperate to facilitate seamless control and pleasant air travel experiences.
Topic:
Development, Financial Markets, Business, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Travel
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

10. Policy Strategies to Strengthen the Travel and Tourism Sectors from the COVID-19 Pandemic Shocks: A Computable General Equilibrium Model for the Indonesian Economy

Author:
Irlan Adiyatma Rum
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The travel and tourism sectors have become the most vulnerable sectors to the COVID-19 pandemic. Studies have shown that most tourist-destination countries will experience economic shocks due to the pandemic. This study analyses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic shock and the implications of policies taken by the government to strengthen the travel and tourism sectors. As the largest travel and tourism economy in ASEAN, this study uses Indonesia as a case study. It uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model using a detailed national input–output table for the creative sectors. The study develops baseline scenarios (low and lower-middle recovery), general policy scenarios (moderate and highly effective support) and specific policy scenarios for the travel and tourism sectors. Through changes in export demand, the impact of the pandemic depends on the existing conditions and policy interventions. The pandemic causes the nominal gross domestic product at the national level to decline by an interval of [–1.99%, –2.97%] and for tourism and travel sectors by [–6.81%, –10.38%] depending on the recovery period. If the recovery is low (all annual inbound tourism expenditure is removed), the Indonesian macroeconomy will be worse than under the lower-middle recovery, given the same government intervention. Thus, effectiveness becomes an important factor for creating a better impact. Adding capital stimulus into the tourism sector helps to further reduce output decline in the travel and tourism sectors, but it is not enough to help the economy recover from the pandemic. The best policy strategy is to make sure that the mitigation plan will be implemented effectively.
Topic:
Tourism, Economy, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Travel
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Asia