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1. The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Production Sharing in East Asia

Author:
Archanun Kohpaiboon and Juthatip Jongwanich
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper examines the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on global production sharing in ASEAN Member States. Product-level analysis – on hard disk drives, air conditioners, microwaves, televisions, washing machines, and automotive parts – is undertaken to examine trade patterns between January 2019 and October/November 2020. The key finding suggests that the pandemic caused parts shortages, but this effect has been short-lived. There is no strong evidence that multi-national enterprises have altered their supply chains or means of sourcing parts and components in response to the pandemic. There is some indication that multi-national enterprises are moving away from China, but whether this reflects a ‘COVID-19 effect’ or the trade war between the United States and China is not clear. COVID-19, a once-in-a-century event, may not alone be a compelling reason to restructure supply chain management relating to global production sharing, which has been a structural phenomenon driving economic globalisation.
Topic:
Globalization, Pandemic, COVID-19, Supply Chains, and Production
Political Geography:
East Asia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

2. East Asian Production Networks Amidst the COVID-19 Shock

Author:
Ayako Obashi
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
In the East Asian context, previous studies showed that trade occurring through production networks remained relatively steady amidst an economic shock and recovered faster and stronger once the shock was over. Using finely disaggregated product-level monthly bilateral trade data, we examine whether network trade in the East Asian region has been robust and resilient in face of the COVID-19 crisis, as well as in normal times, by conducting a series of survival analyses. We find a new set of empirical evidence suggesting the robustness of East Asian network trade in normal times and its resilience even amidst the COVID-19 shock.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Production
Political Geography:
East Asia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

3. Is the COVID-19 Pandemic Recasting Global Value Chains in East Asia?

Author:
Nobuaki Yamashita and K. Fukasaku
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper assesses how the current COVID-19 pandemic is shaping global value chains in East Asia after the formidable disruptions inflicted by the health crisis. Some have expressed the view that global value chains would readjust and production processes would move home, i.e. reshoring, facilitated by the recent movement of protectionism measures in the post-pandemic world. We evaluate such concerns and examine the role of policy with a focus on non-tariff measures in East Asia.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Pandemic, Global Value Chains, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
East Asia and Asia

4. Impacts of COVID-19 on the Energy Demand Situation of East Asia Summit Countries

Author:
Shigeru Kimura, Ikarii Ryohei, and Endo Seiya
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has brought us a ‘New Normal’ life style and the lockdown has severely harmed economic growth, with many countries estimated to record negative economic growth in 2020. Due to the high correlation between energy demand and economic growth, energy demand is also affected. Against this background, ERIA analyses how energy demand has decreased as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic using East Asia Summit (EAS) energy outlook models that are regularly updated by ERIA and apply an econometric approach. The outlook models cover the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) 10 countries plus seven countries – Australia, China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea, New Zealand, and the United States. According to gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimates for EAS countries in 2020, only three countries – China, Lao PDR, and Viet Nam – show positive growth, though less than 2%, and the others show negative growth. Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC) of the EAS countries fell in 2020, but it is expected to rebound in 2021 and projected to return to the originally forecast trend of energy demand up to 2050. Once official energy statistics become available, a comparison between model results and actual statistics will be made to understand how the energy outlook models trace the impact of the pandemic on energy demand.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Models
Political Geography:
East Asia and Asia

5. The Trade Restrictiveness Index and Its Impact on Trade Performance in Selected East Asian Countries

Author:
Norlin Khalid, Muhamad Rias K.V. Zainuddin, Tamat Sarmidi, Sufian Jusoh, Faliq Razak, and Mohd Helmi Ali
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper aims to investigate the effect of non-tariff measures (NTMs) on trade in selected East Asian countries. In doing so, we first estimate the ad valorem equivalent (AVE) of NTMs and construct an augmented trade restrictiveness index (ATRI) by measuring the overall external regulations imposed by importing countries. Second, we analyse the effect of the AVE and trade restrictiveness index (TRI) of importing nations on the exports of various sub-sector products for each country in selected East Asian countries. Based on a standard gravity model framework, we perform a Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) regression at the sectoral level (Harmonized System 2-digit) for total exports and major sub-sectors (agri-food, health, logistics, and manufacturing). The findings show that the ATRI has a negative and significant relationship towards bilateral exports for total exports, manufacturing, and logistics sub-sectors. The negative impacts of the ATRI also highlight that trade barriers play a significant role in bilateral exports. NTM restrictions (proxied by the calculated AVE of NTMs) imposed by importing countries have mixed results for technical and non-technical measures. Where technical measures have negative and significant impacts on bilateral exports for total exports, manufacturing, and health sub-sectors. This implies that implementation of technical NTMs such as sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) and technical barrier to trade (TBT) measures in importing nations adversely affect bilateral exports for these sub-sectors. This is in line with our hypothesis, as exporters may face difficulties in meeting the current NTM specifications, leading to lower bilateral exports. In addition, the results show that most trade agreements have a positive and significant relationship with ASEAN and East Asia countries’ bilateral exports, suggesting that free trade agreements enhance trade between countries.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Non-Tariff Measures
Political Geography:
East Asia and Asia