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7871. Staying the course - The Options of the West in the Face of Belarus

Author:
Arkady Moshes and Hiski Haukkala
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The West should keep a close eye on Belarus. Events during recent weeks have resulted in some unexpected shifts in Belarus' foreign policy. Apparently, President Lukashenko now sees the main challenge to his power to be coming from Russia's direction, and feels the need to look for support from the West. Over time, this could also herald some potentially far-reaching changes inside the country. One should not expect Lukashenko's regime to vanish overnight. Despite the increases in gas and oil prices, the country's economic situation is likely to remain stable for the foreseeable future. What is more, the political opposition remains weak and fragmented. The Belarusian foreign policy line is not developing within the “Russia-West” axis only. In reality, the Minsk contacts are more diversifi ed than is sometimes believed. Most visible are the ties with Venezuela, Iran, and China, as well as some other Latin American and Arab countries. The Western actors should be cautioned against taking Lukashenko's recent overtures at face value. It is quite likely that they may end up being deceived and merely help Lukashenko perpetuate his regime. More importantly, by rushing to embrace Lukashenko, the West would only discredit its own liberal agenda as well as betray the very opposition forces in Belarus that it has sought to cultivate. Despite the rapid pace of recent events, the West should be in no hurry to react. Time remains to follow the developments. The West – especially the European Union – should voice its continued support for the liberal agenda of the genuine opposition in Belarus and be ready to approach the country with a generous programme of rapprochement should the ice begin to thaw in the as yet frozen river.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

7872. A Collapsing Façade – The Russian Duma Election in perspective

Author:
Sinikukka Saari
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Duma election and its results reinforce the prevailing undemocratic trends in Russia. The changes in electoral laws, the election campaign and its biased coverage in the Russian media, the Russian authorities' hostile attitude towards international election observation and the so-called Putin's Plan leave very little hope of democratic pluralism developing in Russia anytime soon. Russia's political system has been built gradually over the years. The system aims at controlling the competition for power and securing the political elite's interests. The system is characterised by non-transparent and manipulated political processes, misleading doublespeak on democratic norms, and the misuse of soft and hard administrative resources. Putin's overwhelming popularity does not compensate for the lack of democratic accountability. Likewise, his possible premiership would not strengthen parliamentarism in Russia because the decision is driven by instrumentalism towards political institutions. Instead, it would create a dangerous precedent for an ad hoc separation of power. Western actors should be more aware that the stability that Putin is often praised for bringing about is not build on solid ground, and they should change their policies accordingly. Promoting democracy – and thus longterm stability – in Russia is in western actors' interests.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

7873. Defense Monitor, Civil Wars Turned Regional

Author:
Col. Daniel Smith
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
No conventional, state-sponsored opposing armies took to the field of battle in 2006. Nonetheless, the number of overt armed interventions by out-side powers in other nations civil wars increased, illustrating a trend away from conventional armed conflicts and toward more complex civil wars that increasingly transform into larger regional wars.
Topic:
Defense Policy, International Political Economy, and War
Political Geography:
United States

7874. Defense Monitor, Who Will Pay for this Puny Defense Budget?

Author:
Eric Hagt, Philip E. Coyle, Whitney Parker, Rachel Stohl, Winslow Wheeler, Victoria Samson, and Rhea Myerscough
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
This analysis first appeared in the Fort Worth Star-Telegramon March 5, 2007.The new 2008 defense budget has been on the street for weeks. A consensus has emerged in Washington about its size. That consensus has little to do with the facts and much to do with political maneuvering, which has been orchestrated with brilliant success by the very same White House that everyone in Washington discounts as washed up.
Topic:
Defense Policy and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

7875. The Defense Monitor, Primed and ready

Author:
Philip E. Coyle, Whitney Parker, Bruce Blair, and Brian Ellison
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
American And Russian political rhetoric attaches the highest priority to imposing ironclad control over their nuclear arsenals. The two nations cooperate extensively and devote substantial resources to achieving this aim, but both nations are shooting themselves in the foot by allowing hoary cold War priorities to take precedence. The anachronistic mind-set of the cold Warrior still dominates their nuclear establishments, their agendas, and their relationship in ways that deeply undermine their efforts to contain “loose nukes.” They spend 25 times more money to preserve their c old War nuclear deterrent postures than they spend on shoring up security against theft.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Cold War, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, America, Europe, and Asia

7876. The Defense Monitor, U.S. Missile Defenses in Europe: The Putin Alternative

Author:
Philip E. Coyle, Whitney Parker, Theresa Hitchens, and Richard May
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
At the G-8 Summit in early June, the difficulties and complexities of proposed U.S. missile defenses in Europe were on full display. In the weeks preceding the G-8 Summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin had set the Bush administration – and the world – back on its heels with talk of Russian missiles aimed at Europe in retaliation for proposed U.S. missile defenses in Poland and the Czech Republic. This set the stage for what the Bush administration thought might be a G-8 confrontation over its proposed missile defense system. Then, on June 7, Putin proposed a smart missile defense technical and policy solution that the Pentagon should have thought of first: establishing a missile defense radar site at the existing Qabala early warning radar station in Azerbaijan.
Topic:
Defense Policy and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

7877. The Defense Monitor, Conventional Weapons Pose Challenges for U.S. Forces in Afghanistan

Author:
Rachel Stohl, Winslow Wheeler, Mark Burgess, Marta Conti, Monica Czwarno, and Ana Marte
Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
Six years Ago, the United States began its operations in Afghanistan in response to the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. At the time, scant attention was paid to the dangers of landmines, unexploded ordnance and small arms that plagued the country. Now, six years later, U.S. and coalition military forces serving in Afghanistan continue to face a variety of dangers, beyond the unfriendly geography and resurgent Taliban forces. Troops supporting the international Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and operation enduring Freedom (OEF) face additional challenges from landmines, unexploded ordnance, man-portable air defense systems and other small arms.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

7878. The Defense Monitor, The U.S. Military: By the Numbers

Author:
Winslow Wheeler and Ana Marte
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
This issue of the Defense Monitor will highlight CDI's 2007 Military Almanac, a compilation of government, academic and other research data that depicts the cost, structure, history and makeup of the U.S. military. For this issue, we have chosen to display several Almanac charts that highlight significant issues such as the recent composition of the U.S. Armed Forces, the basic U.S. force structure relative to the military service budget, the companies being awarded top defense contracts for new weapons, the size of the U.S. military spending relative to the defense budgets of other countries around the globe, and the overall composition of the U.S. military commands.
Topic:
Defense Policy and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

7879. The Pugwash Newsletter: To the Pugwash Community

Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:
Celebrations in honor of the 50th anniversary of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs are occurring around the world in 2007. National groups from Denmark to Russia, Sri Lanka to the United States, and Spain to Japan, are organizing events to commemorate the very first meeting, held in July 1957 at the home of Cyrus Eaton in Pugwash, Nova Scotia, and to remind the world of the ever-present threat posed by nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, Iraq, Middle East, Denmark, and Spain

7880. The Pugwash Newsletter: To the Pugwash Community

Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:
The year 2007 marks the 50th anniversary of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs. Little could the original 21 participants at the July 1957 meeting in Pugwash, Nova Scotia have imagined that, fifty years later, the Pugwash organization would have convened over 320 workshops, symposia and conferences on major security issues, have national groups and representatives in more than 50 countries around the world, and have been honored with the 1995 Nobel Peace Prize.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Europe and Middle East