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11222. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: July 1999
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.6 percent in July. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to economic activity rising in the 3rd quarter from the 1.8 percent (annualized) rise in GDP in the 2nd quarter. The leading indicators point to continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems show inconsistent patterns of growth.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
11223. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: June 1999
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.4 percent in June. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a very healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to economic activity rising at a pace of 2.7 percent (annualized) in the 2nd quarter of 1999, compared to the advance estimate of GDP showing a 2.3 percent increase. The leading indicators point to continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems are almost nonexistent.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
11224. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: May 1999
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index held steady in May. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a pace of over 2.5 percent (annualized) in the 2nd quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through the remainder of 1999. There is little evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
11225. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: April 1999
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in April. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to activity continuing to rise at the start of the 2nd quarter of 1999, but at a pace that is much more modest than the 4.1 percent (annualized) rise in GDP in the 1st quarter. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through at least the 4th quarter of 1999. Evidence of cyclical imbalances from the lagging indicators—that might threaten the stability of the economy—is neither consistent nor convincing.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
11226. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: March 1999
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.1 percent, and both the coincident and lagging indexes increased 0.2 percent in March. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a very healthy economy: The coincident indicators show aggregate economic activity growing at about a 3.25 percent annualized pace in the 1st quarter of 1999 (compared to a 4.5 percent increase in the advance estimate of GDP). The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion for at least six more months. Cyclical imbalances and related conditions are unlikely to jeopardize the economy's stability.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
11227. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: February 1999
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.2 percent in February. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a pace of about 3 percent (annualized) in the 1st quarter of 1999. The leading indicators show odds are high that the expansion will continue through at least late-1999. There is little evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
11228. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: January 1999
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.5 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in January. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show generally healthy conditions: The coincident indicators show that, although industrial production fell slightly, the first quarter of 1999 started on a positive note. The leading indicators are almost unanimous in predicting continued growth through at least the middle of the year. Signs of cyclical imbalances and other factors that might jeopardize the economy's stability remain relatively subdued.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
11229. Accommodating Turkey In ESDP
- Author:
- Nathalie Tocci and Marc Houben
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Can Turkey's demands for equal treatment with EU member states be reconciled with the EU's demand for autonomous decision capacity? This commentary analyses the Turkish position and assesses the theoretical and practical possibilities for accommodating Turkey's demands in the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP).
- Topic:
- NATO
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Middle East
11230. Five Years To The Euro For The CEE-3?
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- In terms of meeting the fiscal Maastricht criteria, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland are better placed today than were some of the current euro area members from the “Club Med” (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) at a comparable point in time leading up to their joining EMU. The CEE-3 should thus be able to qualify for full membership by early 2006, following a decision by the EU as early as 2005.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Greece, Poland, Hungary, Spain, Italy, and Portugal
11231. Health Not Wealth
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Health, and not wealth, should be the decisive criterion when considering the prospects of the Central and Eastern European candidates for EU membership and the capacity of the EU to enlarge. Viewed from this perspective, the outlook is promising. The CEECs are still very poor, compared to most of the existing EU members, but they are also much more dynamic. Their growth rates are generally expected to remain around 4-5% for the foreseeable future, compared to about 2-3% for the EU. This still implies that full catch-up in terms of GDP per capita will take decades, rather than years, but full catch-up is not the relevant goal if one is concerned about enlargement. Experience in the EU has shown that problems are much more likely to arise from established rich member countries with stagnant economies (Belgium in the 1980s and part of the 1990s) than poor, but more dynamic states (e.g. Portugal and Ireland today). The fact that most of the so-called 'periphery' is now experiencing stronger growth than the 'core' confirms that EU integration benefits poorer countries even more.
- Topic:
- Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Belgium, Portugal, and Ireland
11232. Reinventing The Climate Negotiations: An Analysis of COP6
- Author:
- Christian Egenhofer and Jan Cornillie
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- With the cancellation of the Oslo ministerial mini-summit, the prospects for an early entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol are rapidly fading. Even if the US agrees to an outcome at a resumed COPbis in July, continued Congressional opposition and unresolved questions concerning the developing countries' commitments make US ratification highly implausible.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Law, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
11233. Effects of the Berlin Summit on Own Resources, Expenditures and EU Net Balances
- Author:
- Jorge Nuñez Ferrer
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The Berlin Summit has been concluded with the suspicious outcome in which every Head of State declares victory. The tone is not so victorious by the Presidency, however, which honestly declared that Germany didn't “win the lottery”. There is reason for suspicion if, after long and arduous discussions to reform policies and reduce EU expenditure, member states declare satisfaction at the result. Something must be amiss, if painful reforms appear not to hurt. In fact, after preliminary calculations and some political considerations, there are grounds to suspect that the reforms proposed are less than satisfactory.
- Topic:
- Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Germany, and Berlin
11234. A Primer on the Balance Sheet of the Eurosystem
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The ECB has just published the opening balance sheet for the Eurosystem, which is the official name given to the ECB plus the 11 national central banks of the euro zone. All 15 national central banks are part of the ESCB, but the participation of the four outsiders is purely formal. The balance sheet, which is reproduced at the end of this Commentary, reveals two very interesting facts: During 1998, the national central banks of the euro zone increased their holdings of dollar foreign exchange reserves by the equivalent of about 38 bn euro. This means that they de facto intervened consistently to support the dollar during that year. The ECB starts with huge foreign exchange reserves: 237 bn euro plus gold worth 100 bn euro. This is much more than the amount held by the US Federal Reserve and constitutes a major share of the reserves held by all OECD countries.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe
11235. EMU and Labour Markets: Vae Germania?
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The outcome of the first round of wage negotiations in post-EMU Germany sheds some new light on the old question: What impact will the euro have on labour markets and unemployment? Economists would say that it depends on the structure of the bargaining process. In wage-setting, it seems that either one of the two extremes of full centralisation or complete fragmentation is conducive to low inflation and unemployment.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
11236. The First Weeks of the Eurosystem: An Initial Assessment and a Look Forward
- Author:
- Karel Lannoo
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- With the successful launch of the euro, the start of ESCB monetary policy operations and the operation of Target payment system, the previously national interbank bank markets have been integrated at once in a unified euro interbank market. Outstanding public debt was redenominated in euro, trading conventions harmonised and all EMU stock markets have started quoting in euro. This does not, however, bring us at once to a US-style capital market. Euroland remains profoundly different from the US in the weight of the regions and the importance of banks.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
11237. Panama Canal Transition: The Final Implementation
- Author:
- C. Richard Nelson, Jr. Gillespie, Brandon Grove Jr., and David E. McGiffert
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The implications of the transfer of the Panama Canal go well beyond U.S. relations with Panama. This complex transition provides an important lesson for Latin America and the rest of the world on how countries of vastly different size and outlook can work together. The success of this 20 year process lies mainly in first identifying the primary common interest of the United States, Panama and the major canal users: access to an open, safe and efficient canal. Important but secondary concerns, including U.S. military access to facilities in Panama, were addressed during the process but never were allowed to displace the primary interest. By focusing on this clear, compelling key objective, both Panama and the United States were able to accommodate fundamental changes in the political, economic and security context, including several changes in administrations, tough negotiations and even a military confrontation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Latin America
11238. Beyond Kosovo: A Regional Approach to the Balkans
- Author:
- Roger Kirk, Jack M. Seymour Jr., John Lampe, and Louis Sell
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Basic Factors Underlying a Regional Settlement 1. Any overall settlement in the Balkans should be area-wide and coordinated among the entities directly involved, the neighboring states, the key nations of the outside community, and the relevant political and economic international institutions. 2. It will have to include political arrangements, international security guarantees, and substantial economic assistance as a basis for genuine peace and reconciliation. 3. It must embrace generally accepted international standards, including respect for human rights and rights for ethnic minorities; right of return for all area refugees; rule of law; effective media freedom; and free elections supervised or, where necessary, organized by the international community. 4. The settlement should promote and institutionalize political and economic cooperation, regional trade and/or formal ties among the participating states and entities of the former Yugoslavia, and neighboring states as feasible, including the free flow of goods, labor and capital. 5. International assistance in reconstruction, economic reform and development of economic ties among the peoples of the region and with the European Community must be massive. It should, however, be designed to promote democratic institutions, market reform, adherence to peace agreements, and respect for human rights. 6. Such assistance should target the private sector, encourage local initiatives, and help governments pursue effective economic reform policies. It should seek to curtail corruption and the maintenance of unprofitable state industries. It should avoid encouraging international dependency. The purpose should be to build societies and practices conducive to self-reliance, international cooperation, and outside investment. Positive and negative lessons can be drawn from experiences in Bosnia. 7. The support of the broad population of Serbia will be necessary if peaceful and economically viable regional arrangements are to last. The reconstruction process implied in these arrangements will itself be an incentive for the Serbs to opt away from destructive nationalist policies and join in the regional reconstruction process. 8. Neither lasting peace in the Balkans nor democracy in Serbia can be achieved as long as Slobodan Milosevic remains in power. He has been indicted by the Tribunal in The Hague for crimes against humanity and his removal from power is a prime NATO objective. There are increasing and encouraging signs of popular Serb desire to be rid of Milosevic, but it is not certain that he will depart in the near future. 9. A regional settlement may have to be negotiated indirectly with, or imposed upon, Milosevic as the ruler of Serbia. It should nevertheless be made clear that the West condemns Milosevic\'s actions, that Serbia cannot resume its rightful place in Europe as long as it is governed by indicted war criminals, and that the West will help the people of Serbia in their efforts to bring forth new, democratic, cosmopolitan leadership in their country. 10. The Kosovar Albanians cannot be expected to live under Serbian control again for the foreseeable future. Arrangements short of formal independence such as an international protectorate or trusteeship are possible, indeed likely, for a transitional period. A more permanent and self-sustaining arrangement is highly desirable if it can be achieved without creating more instability in the former Yugoslav space and the neighboring area. 11. A credible international military presence is needed to encourage the return of the remaining Albanian-Kosovars, the continued residence of Serb-Kosovars and to maintain peace and order within Kosovo and on its borders. Such a presence will also be a lasting part of any transitional arrangement. Any foreseeable regional settlement will similarly require a prolonged foreign military presence. This settlement should, however, lay the foundation for an end to that presence by, among other things, providing for supervised demilitarization of the states and entities involved, and a comprehensive regional arms control agreement. 12. A central objective of any regional settlement should be to promote conditions that will encourage a stable political and military environment, economic growth, and increasing self-reliance. These changes will permit an end to the foreign military, political, and economic presence in the region, though no date for that termination should be set.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Kosovo, and Balkans
11239. Building an Asia-Pacific Security Community: The Role of Nuclear Weapons
- Author:
- C. Richard Nelson, James E. Goodby, Tomohisha Sakanaka, W. Neal Anderson, Tomohide Murai, and Shinichi Ogawa
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The main challenge for Asia is to build a security community that transforms a legacy of military competition into security cooperation. This transformation will be difficult because of the high level of distrust among the states and considerable uncertainty about future relations. Asia lacks the kinds of developed, institutionalized multilateral security arrangements that contribute to transparency, confidence-building and long-term stability. Furthermore, a “ business as usual ” approach that focuses on managing bilateral relationships is unlikely to result in a security community. More attention needs to be devoted to multilateral security efforts. Without the reassurance of a network of cooperative arrangements, including verifiable arms limitations, potential adversaries may place their hopes in achieving unilateral military advantages. Such efforts could foster fears of regional domination and, in turn, a potential arms race that includes nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.
- Topic:
- Security and NATO
- Political Geography:
- United States, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
11240. An Appropriate Role for Nuclear Power in Meeting Global Energy Needs
- Author:
- Donald L. Guertin, Richard E. Balzhiser, Christian Gobert, William J. Dirks, Joy C. Dunkerley, and Stephen P. Pettibone
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Despite the recent global economic slowdown, the demand for energy services is bound to increase over the long term in order to provide improved living standards for growing populations, in particular in developing countries. In recognition of its unique characteristics, the demand for electricity will rise even faster than total energy. Several studies present scenarios that show a doubling of global installed capacity over the next twenty years.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States and Asia