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341. EU Defence Series: Military Mobility A Critical Enabler

Author:
Mihai Sebastian Chihaia
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
The first months of 2025 witnessed monumental changes for European security. Donald Trump’s return to the White House has created a huge degree of uncertainty, and it is increasingly likely that Europe will need to prepare for much less American commitment to its security and defence. There are serious questions about how large the impact on the EU and NATO will be, the future of NATO’s Article 5, and what the US reaction will be if a NATO Ally is attacked. In any scenario, one of the most important enablers of Europe’s defence is the ability to move troops and equipment swiftly across the continent and ensure that reinforcements can arrive quickly in case of conflict. This brief maps developments at the EU level to enhance military mobility and highlights what is still needed to overcome challenges and bottlenecks.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Military Affairs, European Union, and Mobility
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

342. Russia’s War in Ukraine: Prospects for an American Peace

Author:
Laurynas Jonavičius
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
As Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds on, international attention has turned toward the prospect of a negotiated settlement, with a US-backed framework among the most prominent initiatives. Reports suggest this might include a ceasefire, security guarantees for Ukraine, tacit recognition of Russia’s existing territorial control, and a long-term halt to Ukraine’s NATO aspirations. On the surface, these terms may appear pragmatic, offering a potential off-ramp from a costly and protracted conflict. However, below this is a complex dilemma, shaped by structural asymmetry, political mistrust, and fundamentally divergent national priorities.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, NATO, Armed Conflict, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

343. Russia’s War in Ukraine: Ukraine’s Strategy And Western Military Assistance

Author:
Hennadiy Maksak
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
International partners have provided significant military assistance to Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. The temporary suspension of critical US military assistance in early 2025 raised concerns about Ukraine’s strategy to fend off Russia. While it is difficult to predict how the battlefield will unfold in 2025, strong ties with Western partners will be crucial to continue a war of attrition against an overwhelming enemy.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Armed Conflict, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

344. EU Defence Series: The White Paper for European Defence Readiness 2030

Author:
Marianne Paire
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
The Commission presented its White Paper on defence on 19 March at a press conference with the Commissioner for Defence and Space, Andrius Kubilius, and the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas. [1] This document is part of a dynamic that has been at work since the outburst of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, namely the greater priority given to defence within the EU.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, European Union, and Readiness
Political Geography:
Europe

345. More Than a Systemic Rival: China as a Security Challenge for the EU

Author:
Tauno Tõhk
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
The EU's ties with China rank just behind its transatlantic ones in significance. With China being a major trading partner, the focus has long been on economic opportunities. In recent years, there has been a shift in how the EU frames its relationship with China. Yet, despite increasing emphasis on systemic rivalry and economic security, security risks remain underrepresented in EU China policy.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

346. Supporting the Construction Contracting Sector in Yemen for Stabilization and Recovery

Author:
Ghadeer Al-Maqhafi
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The construction sector in Yemen, despite being significantly impacted by political and economic crises and the effects of war, continues to be a crucial sector for the country’s recovery and reconstruction efforts. Within the wider context of the construction sector in Yemen, this brief presents a comprehensive analysis of the contracting sector, which covers the physical work carried out on the production site such as constructing, renovating, or repairing buildings and structures, as well as other heavy constructions such as roads, bridges, and dams. The brief examines the state of the contracting sector before the war, its transformations over the past three decades, and the challenges it has been facing, such as security issues, ineffective legislation, and widespread corruption leading to informal activities. The brief also highlights the remarkable resilience and adaptability of the contracting sector, and argues that local contractors, with their expertise and understanding, are critical for the sector’s future and are well-positioned to play a key role in any upcoming reconstruction opportunities. In addition, this brief explores the state of adopting green building standards in the contracting sector in Yemen, and the importance of integrating sustainable development strategies and environmentally friendly practices. Furthermore, the brief emphasizes the sector’s role in job creation, especially for youth, and analyses the role of Yemeni women in the sector and how their participation can be enhanced. The brief concludes with recommendations for a holistic approach engaging all stakeholders. The recommendations include convening technical meetings between contracting companies and government entities, forming a national committee to formulate a strategic vision, and exploring ways to revitalize the sector so that it can effectively participate in future recovery and development phases.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Construction, Stabilization, and Contracting
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

347. Made In Yemen: A Strategy For Industrial Recovery And Economic Growth

Author:
Saeed Bin Jalal and Ahmed Noor Aldeen Abdulkader
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Historically, Yemen’s industrial sector has been characterized by small-scale, private initiatives, with 78% of establishments employing fewer than four workers and dominated by food, metal, and textile industries. Yemeni industry’s reliance on imported inputs and weak infrastructure left it vulnerable even before the 2015 escalation of war. Post-conflict damage has been extensive, with losses exceeding $35 billion, industrial output collapsing, and over half the workforce displaced. Legal frameworks exist but lack consistent enforcement. Gender disparities remain stark, with women accounting for just 1–6% of industrial employment. Environmental degradation further complicates recovery, driven by outdated laws and limited compliance capacity. Despite this, some local industries have demonstrated resilience, particularly in informal light manufacturing. Drawing from regional and international models of industrialization, this RYE Policy Brief identifies viable paths for industrial renewal anchored in local resources, community participation, and adaptive governance.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Governance, Economic Growth, and Manufacturing
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

348. No brain, no brawn: Trump 2.0 makes an EU Economic Security Network essential

Author:
Agathe Demarais and Abraham Newman
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The success of the EU’s response to challenges posed by Russia, China and Trump 2.0 will hinge on the bloc’s ability to establish itself as a global geoeconomics power—leveraging its economic strength to pursue foreign policy goals. The EU lacks a robust institutional framework to fully harness its geoeconomic potential and maximise the effectiveness of economic statecraft tools, such as financial sanctions, export controls and investment screening mechanisms. Economic statecraft tools are developed at the EU level but implemented at the national level. This disconnect creates loopholes, inconsistencies and confusion that weaken the impact of these measures. Creating a network-based EU body to facilitate collaboration among member states on economic statecraft tools would turn Europe’s perennial weakness—fragmentation—into a strength. An EU Economic Security Network (EU ESN) would bring together representatives from each member state as well as officials from EU bodies. It would help design EU-wide best practices, support information sharing, and foster the rise of a pan-European economic security culture. The EU ESN could serve as a contact point for G7 and other allies to discuss and eventually collaborate on economic security issues that are relevant to the bloc.
Topic:
European Union, Donald Trump, Economic Security, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
Europe

349. Long walk to realism: Climate cooperation to reset EU-South Africa relations

Author:
Arina Muresan and Sanusha Naidu
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
South Africa’s blend of economic weight, regional influence and democratic resilience means the country remains a crucial partner for the EU in the global south. Despite longstanding trade ties, political divergences—over Ukraine, BRICS and Israel, for example—have strained EU-South Africa relations. South Africa’s coal dependence makes its energy transition both vital and challenging, while Europe urgently needs to boost its competitiveness and build resilient supply chains—making climate action an ideal platform for resetting their relationship. As such, the EU should move beyond seeking full political alignment and instead pursue a more pragmatic relationship with South Africa, focused on shared priorities like clean trade and green energy. Both sides should use structured platforms as well as multilateral forums such as the G20—hosted by South Africa this year—to foster targeted cooperation even amid broader political disagreements. If successful, this approach with South Africa could serve as a model for the EU to engage with other developing countries.
Topic:
Climate Change, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Realism, and Pragmatism
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and South Africa

350. Preventing the next war: A European plan for Ukraine

Author:
Camille Grand, Jana Kobzova, and Nicu Popescu
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Whether or not there is a ceasefire in Ukraine this year, Europeans, together with the Ukrainians, should begin—now—to draw up a “beyond the horizon” plan for Ukraine in readiness for a ceasefire or a peace deal. Even if fighting stops, there is no doubt Russia will continue to undermine Ukraine, with knock-on impacts throughout Europe. The risk of a future Russian-Ukrainian war will remain substantial for years, possibly decades. Protecting Ukraine’s security and enhancing its defence, European integration and domestic stability are in the interests of both Europeans and Ukrainians. Europe is safer with a sovereign and prosperous Ukraine than if the country is controlled or endlessly destabilised by Russia. The EU and European states must plan ahead to assure Ukraine’s internal security, and help its democracy to flourish, Ukrainians to return home and the economy to bounce back. Without such a plan, Ukraine will endlessly preoccupy Europe’s politics and economics. But with such a plan, Europeans can help transform it into an anchor of stability.
Topic:
European Union, Regional Integration, Resilience, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

351. Strength in members: How to rally EU enlargement for defence

Author:
Gustav Gressel and Nicu Popescu
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The EU’s enlargement process has traditionally focused on economic and democratic reforms, leaving defence integration largely to NATO. This approach is no longer sufficient. Not all EU members or candidates are NATO members. This paper outlines how to enhance defence cooperation by expanding the EU’s enlargement methodology or by creating tailored roadmaps. These initiatives would help candidate countries align with EU security standards and contribute to collective defence efforts. The first option is to include classified defence-focused questions in the enlargement questionnaire. This would allow the EU to evaluate the candidates’ readiness for a geopolitically stronger Europe and align their defence sectors. However, both EU and non-EU countries alike may resist greater EU oversight. The second option, defence cooperation roadmaps, may be more palatable. They provide an alternative pathway for security integration and interoperability, especially for countries not on a NATO membership track. Linking EU enlargement to defence policies—through closer cooperation with candidate countries and expanded defence integration—offers a path to greater security and autonomy.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe

352. The bear behind the ballot: Moldova’s election in the shadow of war

Author:
Andrew Wilson
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moldova has been Russia’s second most important target, with hybrid war stopping just short of direct military intervention. After three tense votes rife with Russian interference, Moldova is gearing up to elect its next parliament in September that will see it through until 2029—the eve of the country’s possible EU accession. In the parliamentary election, President Maia Sandu’s pro-European party, PAS, will run up against a variety of political parties supported by Russia. These range from outwardly pro-Russian to ostensibly pro-European parties designed to chip away at PAS’s vote. In the uphill battle against Russian interference, the EU should support Moldova by spending its allocated funding more wisely, fighting misinformation, communicating the benefits of EU integration and providing Moldova with a clear path to accession.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Regional Politics, Regional Security, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Moldova

353. Law of duty: The case for a US-inspired EU Preparedness Act

Author:
Tiago Antunes
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Europe faces an era of geopolitical uncertainty, demanding a stronger response to security threats. Increased defence spending is essential but not enough. To be truly prepared, the EU needs a whole-of-society approach. An EU Preparedness Act, partly inspired by the US Defense Production Act (DPA), would empower the EU to mobilise industrial capacity, protect critical infrastructure, safeguard supply chains and ensure access to raw materials during crises. Current EU emergency tools fall far short of the scope of the DPA because they lack the command-and-control authority needed to address systemic disruptions. While the DPA cannot be replicated wholesale, some of its provisions could be adapted to the EU legal context. The adoption of an EU Preparedness Act finds legal basis in existing treaty provisions and adheres to the principles of conferral, subsidiarity and proportionality.
Topic:
Defense Policy, European Union, Supply Chains, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

354. Law of duty: The case for a US-inspired EU Preparedness Act

Author:
Tiago Antunes
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Europe faces an era of geopolitical uncertainty, demanding a stronger response to security threats. Increased defence spending is essential but not enough. To be truly prepared, the EU needs a whole-of-society approach. An EU Preparedness Act, partly inspired by the US Defense Production Act (DPA), would empower the EU to mobilise industrial capacity, protect critical infrastructure, safeguard supply chains and ensure access to raw materials during crises. Current EU emergency tools fall far short of the scope of the DPA because they lack the command-and-control authority needed to address systemic disruptions. While the DPA cannot be replicated wholesale, some of its provisions could be adapted to the EU legal context. The adoption of an EU Preparedness Act finds legal basis in existing treaty provisions and adheres to the principles of conferral, subsidiarity and proportionality.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Geopolitics, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

355. Multi-Pole-arity: How Poland can help Europe think big on China

Author:
Alicja Bachulska
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
China’s strategic approach to its industrial policy—particularly its trade surplus and dominance in clean technologies—is a growing risk to Europe’s competitiveness and economic security. Like many other European states, Poland prefers to focus on the bilateral dimension of its relationship with China. But the scale of China’s economic threat means the EU’s only hope is to address it as a unified bloc. Poland should use its growing leadership role in the EU to help shift the bloc towards a more assertive China policy using the available tools. As it confronts the prospect of a trade war with the US, the EU cannot afford vulnerability to China. But first, Warsaw will need to recalibrate its own policies by grasping the realities of its trade relationship with China and assessing its vulnerabilities: investments, critical infrastructure and supply chains.
Topic:
Agriculture, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Economy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Poland

356. Digitalisation in Agriculture and Food Systems in ASEAN: Pathways to Its Resilience and Sustainability

Author:
Masanori Kozono, Ari Aji Cahyono, and Siti Mustaqimatud Diyanah
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Digital technologies are transforming the agriculture and food systems of ASEAN, offering new opportunities to enhance productivity, sustainability, and resilience. ASEAN has taken collective steps to accelerate this transition through initiatives such as the ASEAN Guidelines on Promoting the Utilisation of Digital Technologies for ASEAN Food and Agricultural Sector (2021), the ASEAN Leaders’ Declaration on Strengthening Food Security and Nutrition in Response to Crises (2023), and the Action Plan for Sustainable Agriculture in ASEAN (2024). To support these regional efforts, this study assesses the current utilisation of digital tools across agricultural value chains, identifies barriers to technology diffusion, and analyses enabling policy frameworks. Based on surveys of 824 respondents across eight ASEAN Member States (AMS), the study finds that smartphone-based solutions – such as advisory applications, digital payments, and marketplaces – are the most widely adopted. However, adoption is primarily driven by economic objectives rather than environmental benefits. The main constraints include limited infrastructure, low digital literacy, and high adoption costs. Looking ahead, digital marketplaces and drones are expected to become the most in-demand technologies. Comprehensive and inclusive policies – anchored in strong infrastructure, skills development, financing mechanisms, and regional co-operation – are critical to advancing sustainable digital transformation in ASEAN’s agri-food systems.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Science and Technology, Innovation, ASEAN, and Food Systems
Political Geography:
Asia

357. Between Trade and Trust: Rethinking Indonesia–US Cross-Border Personal Data Transfer

Author:
Fikri Adib Rianto
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Indonesia’s recent decision to recognise the United States as an adequate jurisdiction for personal data protection – made under a new bilateral trade deal – permits the transfer of Indonesian personal data to US private entities without additional safeguards. This move, taken before Indonesia’s Personal Data Protection Authority (PDPA) is established and before adequacy criteria are formally defined, raises concerns over legal legitimacy and data governance. Given persistent systemic risks in the US – ranging from corporate misuse and cybersecurity vulnerabilities to expansive surveillance powers and fragmented privacy laws – the decision appears premature. To safeguard privacy while supporting trade interests, Indonesia should complete its domestic data protection framework, clarify adequacy criteria, and temporarily recalibrate its adequacy determination until more robust bilateral governance mechanisms are in place.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Governance, Regulation, Trade, and Data
Political Geography:
Indonesia, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

358. The Double Exposure of Health Impacts and Micro/Nanoplastic Hazards in the Perspective of ASEAN One Health Studies

Author:
Achmad Solikin, Rahayu Susanti, Mirrah Nabighah, Yasuyuki Mitsuhashi, and Manami Uechi
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
In ASEAN countries, interest in and publication of research on micro/nanoplastics (MNPs) have significantly increased, reflecting growing political will to understand, regulate, and reduce MNP-related risks. However, the research agenda has largely focused on MNP distribution, exposure pathways, characterisation, and material properties, with limited attention to their toxicological effects. Although there is a rise in MNP-health research outputs, there has not yet been a systemic or holistic application of the One Health approach to assess the health risks of MNPs, nor to evaluate the hazardous nature of MNP constituents and their impacts on humans, animals, and ecosystems. This policy brief calls for the mainstreaming of the One Health Framework into the MNP research agenda across ASEAN. One Health – a transdisciplinary and integrative approach – is particularly suited to addressing the complexity of MNP pollution by accounting for the interconnectedness of human, animal, and environmental health. Integrating One Health into MNP research would foster collaboration across scientific disciplines and enable a more comprehensive evaluation of the implications of MNP exposure. Such integration would allow for robust, multidisciplinary data collection on MNP instrumentations, exposure routes, constituent hazards, and toxicity effects. To this end, ASEAN Member States are strongly encouraged to embed the One Health Framework in national and regional studies on MNPs. Doing so will enhance the capacity of the region to generate actionable evidence and support more informed, effective policy decisions on the intersection of health and micro/nanoplastic pollution.
Topic:
Pollution, ASEAN, Healthcare System, and Microplastics
Political Geography:
Asia

359. Strengthening Open Government Data for Digital Cooperation in ASEAN

Author:
Hilmy Prilliadi and Mahirah Mahusin
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Open Government Data (OGD) can play a pivotal role in advancing data-driven policymaking and fostering innovation, particularly in addressing complex challenges such as climate change, inequality, and urbanisation. Despite progress in several ASEAN Member States, however, OGD development across the region remains fragmented and constrained by regulatory, cultural, technical, and institutional gaps. The absence of regional standardisation and a clear sectoral lead continues to limit cross-border co-operation and the realisation of shared economic and social benefits. Integrating OGD frameworks and provisions into trade and digital economy agreements – most notably the forthcoming ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) – offers a strategic opportunity to establish a common foundation for data accessibility, usability, and protection. Drawing on lessons from international agreements and global open data initiatives, this policy brief provides practical recommendations to strengthen OGD ecosystems in ASEAN, including targeted capacity building, sector-specific applications, and collaborative mechanisms to align national initiatives with regional priorities.
Topic:
Government, Science and Technology, ASEAN, Data, and Data Governance
Political Geography:
Asia

360. Between Reform and Paralysis: Indonesia, WTO Uncertainty, and the Case for the Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement (MPIA)

Author:
Intan Murnira Ramli and Megawati
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Indonesia’s potential accession to the Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement (MPIA) represents a timely and strategic step to restore legal certainty in World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute settlement. The paralysis of the WTO Appellate Body has weakened the multilateral trading system, leaving disputes unresolved and undermining confidence in global trade rules. The MPIA offers a credible, binding alternative that preserves appellate review. By joining, Indonesia could safeguard its key export sectors, prevent disputes from being ‘appealed into the void, ’ and align with other ASEAN Member States that are already participants. This policy brief assesses the relevance and implications of MPIA membership for Indonesia, highlights the risks of non-participation, and outlines policy options. It recommends that Indonesia consider joining the MPIA while simultaneously: • Advocating for comprehensive WTO reform, and • Leveraging regional mechanisms to safeguard its trade interests.
Topic:
Governance, Reform, Multilateralism, Trade, and WTO
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia