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321. From Reception to Reconstruction: Leveraging a multi-stakeholder approach to displaced Ukrainians’ inclusion

Author:
European Policy Centre
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
The European Union (EU) hosts around 4.2 million displaced Ukrainians under temporary protection, granting them access to various socio-economic rights and allowing intra-EU mobility. Their employment rate is higher than other migrant and refugee groups, yet structural barriers persist, affecting integration outcomes. Temporary protection is set to expire in March 2026, compounding challenges. A potential US-imposed ceasefire adds uncertainty, making long-term planning difficult. While prospects for an EU-wide status for displaced Ukrainians post-2026 are unclear, they can already obtain national permits in some states. Many still hope to return to Ukraine, although this prospect depends on the economic and security situation in Europe and Ukraine, and grows less likely over time. Amid the combined effect of unspeakable devastation from Russia’s full-scale invasion and demographic decline in Ukraine, the country’s reconstruction – and in particular, the future of critical sectors such as construction, transport, agriculture, and public services – depends on displaced Ukrainians’ potential return.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, Refugees, Displacement, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

322. Securing Europe’s civic space: Investing in democracy in the next MFF

Author:
Liza Saris
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
As Europe navigates a period of significant geopolitical transformation and rising illiberalism around the world, the foundational principles of Europe’s liberal democratic societies face challenges from within and from without. Across the continent, civil society organisations (CSOs), including think tanks, have to withstand immense pressures ranging from growing funding constraints to increasingly hostile operating environments. In recent months, clear political obstacles to safeguard civil society funding have emerged from within the European Parliament and the European Commission, as well as at the national level. Hostility towards independent CSOs is worsening thanks to the emboldening of political movements and organisations that are funded by governments who oppose a strong civil society. This trend has the potential to negatively influence upcoming negotiations about funding in the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), which includes the Citizens, Equality, Rights and Values (CERV) programme.
Topic:
Civil Society, Budget, European Union, European Commission, Council of Europe, and Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF)
Political Geography:
Europe

323. Military retention crisis undermines Europe’s defence surge

Author:
Chris Kremidas-Courtney
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Europe is racing to rearm, but its militaries are losing talent faster than they can recruit it. Unless governments prioritize retention, Europe risks building hollow forces that look strong on paper but can’t deliver when it matters. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has triggered Europe’s most profound defence awakening in decades. It is a moment where the continent must reckon with hard choices and, finally, take ownership of its own security. European governments are rearming and raising defence budgets in response to the renewed threat from Moscow. Collective defence spending by EU countries jumped over 30% between 2021 and 2024, and NATO allies have announced ambitious plans to grow their armed forces.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Defense Spending, Russia-Ukraine War, and Armament
Political Geography:
Europe

324. Enhancing Social Protection Amidst Fiscal Constraints: The Botswana 2025/26 Budget

Author:
Lillian Mookodi
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
Botswana has long demonstrated a strong commitment to social protection, with established programmes to support vulnerable populations, reduce poverty, and promote social cohesion. Over the years, these initiatives have played a pivotal role in improving livelihoods and fostering economic inclusion, and reflecting the country’s dedication to inclusive development and social welfare. The 2025/26 budget builds on this legacy by introducing new programmes to improve financial security, child welfare, and housing. These key measures signal Botswana’s strategic shift towards a more inclusive and efficient social protection system, but their long-term success depends on effective implementation, fiscal sustainability, and continuous programme evaluation to ensure delivery of meaningful impact to those who need them most.
Topic:
Poverty, Budget, Sustainable Development, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

325. Budgeting for Effective Anti-Corruption Initiatives in Botswana

Author:
Marumo Omotoye
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
Corruption remains a significant challenge to governance and economic development in Botswana. To tackle this issue, strategic budgeting is essential to ensure that anti-corruption agencies, such as the Directorate on Corruption and Economic Crime, Office of the Auditor General, Financial Intelligence Agency, and Ethics and Integrity Directorate, have the necessary resources to operate independently and efficiently. This Budget Brief examines how enhancing accountability and transparency in budgeting can improve the effectiveness of Botswana’s anti-corruption initiatives. Its thematic focus is on Phase 1 (Halting the financial haemorrhaging in Government) of the Government of Botswana’s strategy to build an inclusive economy.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, Economic Development, and Budgeting
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

326. Egypt’s Expanding Role in the Horn of Africa

Author:
Amanuel Dessalegn Gedebo
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Egypt is stepping up its military, diplomatic and economic presence in the Horn of Africa. In recent months, Cairo has signed a series of economic and security agreements with countries in the region and is preparing to deploy troops to Somalia. These developments come at a time when Egypt is locked in a long-standing water dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which was inaugurated in early September this year. At the same time, Ethiopia’s quest for a direct sea access has strained its relations with its neighbors, some of whom appear to be aligning with Cairo to counterbalance Addis Ababa. If not carefully managed, these dynamics could have serious repercussions for regional stability. First, intensifying competition between Egypt, Ethiopia and other powers risks inflaming ongoing conflicts in Sudan and Somalia. Second, deeper Egyptian involvement could further strain Ethiopia’s already tense relations with its neighbours. Most concerning, an Egyptian military presence in Somalia raises the risk of miscalculation and the possibility of direct confrontation between Egypt and Ethiopia. The Horn of Africa, already beset by multiple conflicts and crowded with external actors vying for influence, can ill afford a further escalation of geopolitical rivalries. Instability in the region would also have consequences far beyond its borders. The African Union, together with the European Union, China and the United States, should therefore use their influence, individually or in concert, to encourage Ethiopia and Egypt to return to negotiations on Nile dispute, help defuse regional tensions linked to Ethiopia’s quest for sea access, and prevent Somalia and Sudan from becoming arenas of proxy conflict.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, African Union, and Regional Stability
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Horn of Africa

327. Saudi and Emirati engagement in Iraq: From sectarianism to investment

Author:
Máté Szalai
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
In addition to the relative stabilisation of Iraq’s security situation, the growing engagement of Gulf states can be attributed to the learning process and changing attitudes in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and elsewhere concerning their various failed attempts to shore up influence in Iraq in the post-2003 period. Until the rise and defeat of Islamic State (IS), most Gulf states pursued a heavily sectarian approach to deal with security risks such as next-door instability and Iranian influence. This tended to amount to supporting Sunni political and militant organisations in Iraq’s periphery against the Iran-backed Shia-dominated political centre. However, the ‘defeat’ of IS, the fragmentation and polarisation of the Shia political landscape, and the changes in Saudi foreign policy implemented by Mohamed bin Salman (MbS) enabled a shift in focus to broader economic and security engagement. This brief aims to interpret and map current Saudi and Emirati efforts to build political, security and economic influence in Iraq and the effects of such efforts on the evolution and stability of Iraq’s current political settlement. An overview of the general Saudi and Emirati strategy towards Iraq since 2017 is followed by a mapping of the main security, political and economic engagement of the two countries after 2020, together with a broad assessment of their effects. The paper aims to contribute to a European re-evaluation of the Gulf states’ strategy towards Iraq. It also assesses the effects of this strategy on the evolution of the Iraqi political system.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Sectarianism, Economy, Economic Growth, Investment, and Engagement
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates

328. Towards Green Industrial Partnerships

Author:
Hannah Lentschig, Giulia Cretti, and Louise Van Schaik
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The European Commission’s Clean Industrial Deal (CID) seeks to accelerate industrial decarbonization, reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports and reinforce economic resilience through stronger technological innovation. This Clingendael Policy Brief explores how partnerships with other countries can support the CID’s objectives. Cooperation for added value around energy and critical raw materials can help to position the EU as a strategic and reliable partner, fostering economic resilience both at home and abroad. Operationalizing this requires clear communication about the EU’s geostrategic interests and a more explicit focus on partner countries’ key concerns, particularly regarding the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Risk-mitigating instruments such as public financial guarantees and CBAM revenues can be more strategically deployed to ramp up private investments under the Global Gateway. This can help to incentivize technology exchange and capacity development in partner countries while bolstering European companies’ competitiveness abroad. Finally, coordination between the EU level and Member States is essential to mainstream green industrial objectives across EU foreign policy, trade and finance.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, Renewable Energy, European Commission, Energy, and Green Industry
Political Geography:
Europe

329. Rethinking Ethiopia's National Dialogue

Author:
Amanuel Dessalegn Gedebo
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Ethiopia is entering a critical period ahead of its 2026 general elections, marked by intensifying armed conflicts, shrinking political space, and a faltering economy. In this context, the government’s flagship National Dialogue process, intended to foster consensus on divisive national issues, risks becoming mere window dressing. While the Dialogue Commission has made progress in convening political actors, its credibility is undermined by the exclusion of key opposition and armed groups, as well as concerns over its independence. This policy brief examines whether the National Dialogue, in its current form, can meaningfully address Ethiopia’s deepening political crisis. It explores the interplay between ongoing civil wars in Oromia, Amhara, and Tigray, the government’s increasingly repressive tactics, and the limitations of the dialogue process. The brief argues that without urgent reforms to ensure inclusiveness and political openness, the National Dialogue may further entrench instability rather than resolve it. It concludes with recommendations for the Ethiopian government and its international partners, including the EU and the Netherlands, on how to recalibrate their approach to support a more credible and constructive path forward.
Topic:
Civil War, Elections, Domestic Politics, Instability, Fragmentation, and National Dialogue
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

330. Armenia and Azerbaijan: Peace or Pause?

Author:
Marina Ohanjanyan
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
At the White House in Washington, on August 8th, Armenia and Azerbaijan initialled a peace deal and signed an agreement on the establishment of the Trump Route for Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP): a transport link connecting Azerbaijan-proper with its exclave Nakhchivan through Armenian territory, which had been a contentious issue in the peace negotiations. While the imagery and potential positive consequences of this should not be underestimated, much is still unclear about what the agreements actually mean, including certain formulations and their interpretation as well as the question of how long the US commitment to the region will last. At the same time, the Washington summit represents an opening and a positive momentum for further development of not only the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process, but larger connectivity in South-Caucasus, and several capitals will have been watching the proceedings keenly. This paper first briefly discusses the agreements reached and some of the remaining questions surrounding them, and then analyses the attitudes and/or reactions of the US, Russia, Iran, Türkiye and the EU, which in some cases, will be crucial to the success or failure of the initiative.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Peace, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and United States of America

331. A Burden or a Boost? Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence in European Agriculture

Author:
Marjoleine Hennis
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The next Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) cycle is being discussed amid geopolitical and global trade tensions, and a shift in focus (by the European Commission) to the competitiveness of the European Union (EU). The discussions are taking place in parallel with the introduction of certain sustainability measures of the Green Deal. These measures, such as the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), are often presented as contrasting with competitiveness, or as an additional administrative burden. Instead, this policy brief highlights the potential benefits of the sustainability measures for European agriculture. It argues that, if applied astutely, the measures could boost the EU’s competitiveness and food security, whilst easing regulatory burdens, and reinforcing the position of farmers in agri-food chains.
Topic:
Agriculture, European Union, Food Security, Sustainability, and Green Deal
Political Geography:
Europe

332. Armenia’s Changing Relationship With Russia

Author:
Marina Ohanjanyan
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Armenia is distancing itself from Russia after Moscow failed to support it in the conflict with Azerbaijan Armenia is diversifying its foreign policy toward the EU and US to reduce reliance on a single partner Armenia still depends on Russia—especially in trade, energy, and the economy—making it hard to make 'either-or' choices The EU can help Yerevan reduce its reliance on Russia by deepening cooperation in these areas Continued European backing for Armenia’s democratic development through incentives and conditionality is essential
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Economy, Trade, and Energy
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, and Armenia

333. The Crisis of Belarusian Sovereignty

Author:
Kaspar Pucek
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Belarus is facing a potentially existential crisis as Russia’s growing influence threatens its existence as a sovereign state. This is to a significant extent a result of Western sanctions and diplomatic isolation. European policymakers should look for opportunities to strength Belarusian sovereignty and strategic autonomy through pragmatic engagement. Pragmatic engagement should focus primarily on normalising diplomatic relations and targeted sanctions relief.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Sanctions, Pragmatism, Foreign Influence, and Political Engagement
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and Belarus

334. The Sudanese army on the battlefield: Strategic context and possible trajectories

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Sudanese army recaptured Wad Madani, the capital of Gezira State, after striking the Rapid Support Forces and weakening their position. Using Wad Madani’s strategic location, the army lifted the siege on Khartoum's General Command, recovered signalling equipment and the oil refinery, setting up for future operations in Darfur.
Topic:
Civil War, Armed Forces, Armed Conflict, Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and Sudanese Armed Forces
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and Darfur

335. The decentralization question: Implications of the Kurdish calculus for the Syrian state

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
In April 2025, Kurdish leaders in Syria proposed a decentralized democratic state, challenging an earlier accord between SDF leader Mazloum Abdi and Damascus. The Syrian government rejected federalism, citing national unity. Fragmentation and regional tensions now complicate hopes for a peaceful resolution.
Topic:
Kurds, Decentralization, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Political Transition, and Mazloum Abdi
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

336. A seismic shift: Toward the integration of the SDF in Syrian institutions

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Syrian Democratic Forces' agreement to join Syria's state institutions marks a major step toward unification. This progress has been shaped by changes in both internal and external contexts. However, challenges remain, particularly in agreeing on the details and dealing with external interventions.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Institutions, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Intervention, and Political Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

337. Suwayda Shows Israel’s Determination to Undermine the Syrian State

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Israel blocked Syria from enforcing control in Suwayda, citing Druze protection. Since Assad’s era, it has used varied pretexts to justify ongoing strikes, weakening Syria’s ability to govern or defend itself, aiming to keep it subordinate and incapable of regaining occupied lands.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Syrian War, Druze, Protection, and Airstrikes
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Suwayda

338. The new Syria: Major challenges of the transition

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
After Bashar al-Assad’s overthrow, Syria's new leaders face key challenges: ensuring security and unifying weapons under a single defence ministry, though some armed factions oppose this. Another challenge is agreeing on the state’s identity, which was expected to be addressed in a national conference, but progress stalled.
Topic:
Leadership, Syrian War, Bashar al-Assad, National Dialogue, and Political Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

339. The dissolution of the PKK: Strengthening Turkey internally and externally

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The PKK announced its dissolution and renounced armed struggle, triggering internal rifts but also paving the way for greater Kurdish political participation in Turkey, increased state investment in development, and stronger ties between Turkey, Iraq and Europe.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, PKK, Public Investment, Political Participation, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

340. Iran in the Israeli Calculus: What Comes Next?

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Israeli-American war on Iran has not fully achieved its intended goals. While it may have caused significant damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities and gained relative advantage in armed confrontations, the underlying hostilities remain unresolved, escalating the risk of renewed military conflict.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Armed Conflict, Nuclear Energy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel