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302. Drivers of Change: Reflecting on the significance of external support on Women, Peace and Security to armed and political movements in Myanmar
- Author:
- Tilman Papesch and Zin May Phyo
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Berghof Foundation
- Abstract:
- This policy brief explores the impact of our participatory action research project "Observe and Act" in Myanmar. It collects and analyses stories of discourse, policy and process changes, that were perceived by a diverse group of stakeholders as being linked to the project’s approach of involving the leadership of armed and political movements (APMs) and engaging with them in a participatory manner.
- Topic:
- Foreign Aid, Armed Forces, Political Movements, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia and Myanmar
303. Building peace from the inside phase II: Supporting insider mediation for the sustainable transformation of conflict
- Author:
- Marine Jacob, Claudia Maffettone, Stephanie Sarta, Nura Detweiler, and Victoria Cochrane
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Berghof Foundation
- Abstract:
- The objective of these short policy briefs is to inform national, regional and international institutions on key topics related to insider mediation and to inform the development of more holistic and supportive policies for insider mediators. While women still face cultural, logistical and security barriers in their participation in local mediations, they are able to play critical and unique roles in mediating family, land, socio-economic, and environmental conflicts, contributing to a high success rate of mediation agreements. The value of building and supporting (informal) networks of insider mediators is key in environments that do not always welcome the contributions of civil society and where more flexible and nimble networks can act as early warning and response mechanisms, raising the chances to achieve sustainable and transformative peace.
- Topic:
- Women, Mediation, Post-Conflict, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
304. Policy Brief 18: Sacred values in high-level peace negotiations Recommendations informed by neuro- and cognitive science
- Author:
- Carla Schraml
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Berghof Foundation
- Abstract:
- In an era where violent conflicts are increasingly complex and deeply rooted in sacred values and identities, traditional peacemaking strategies often fall short. Deeply held beliefs, as they are core to identity, are not only difficult to negotiate but also challenge conventional tactics for transforming conflicts and settling violence. Integrating insights from neuro- and cognitive sciences can enhance the practice of designing communication and processes for high-level peace negotiations. Drawing on neuroscience-informed research and insights from global (high-level) peace processes, the recommendations for peace practitioners in this policy brief emphasise the relevance of emotional and psychological underpinnings of conflict.
- Topic:
- Negotiation, Armed Conflict, Peacebuilding, Peace Process, Neuroscience, and Cognitive Science
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
305. Achieving Universal Energy Access in Africa amid Global Decarbonization
- Author:
- Gracelin Baskaran and Sophia Coste
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Africa is the most energy-deficient continent in the world, as it hosts 75 percent of the world’s population without access to electricity.[1] Universal access to electricity and clean cooking remains an elusive goal for most states in the region: in 2022, 600 million people lacked access to electricity on the continent, 98 percent of them located in sub-Saharan Africa.[2] There is an urgent need for intervention given Africa’s population of 1.4 billion is forecasted to reach 2.5 billion by 2050, which, when coupled with rising incomes and urbanization, will lead to a significant increase in energy demand.[3] This brief provides six evidence-based insights on Africa’s energy landscape before providing five recommendations on reaching universal energy access amid global decarbonization.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Trade, Sustainability, Decarbonization, Energy, and Critical Minerals
- Political Geography:
- Africa
306. Russian Nuclear Calibration in the War in Ukraine
- Author:
- Heather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Lachlan MacKenzie, and Reja Younis
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Russian nuclear threats have cast a long shadow over the war in Ukraine. As the conflict enters its third year, it is crucial to understand the objectives of Russia’s nuclear signaling at various stages and the effectiveness of U.S. and allied responses thus far. To explore these issues, the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues recently compiled a database and released a digital report Russian nuclear narratives and their evolution during the first 18 months of the war.[1] This brief builds on that work and finds that Russian officials noticeably calibrated their nuclear signaling at key points in the war. It also concludes that the risks of nuclear use will likely rise if Russia faces significant battlefield setbacks in the future or the conflict expands in new or unexpected ways. Accordingly, Washington should work to maintain international pressure against nuclear use in Ukraine while combatting narratives that downplay or rationalize Russia’s nuclear threats.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
307. Green Industrial Policy: A Holistic Approach
- Author:
- Ilaria Mazzocco
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- In the United States, the rise of the economic-climate agenda and green industrial policy has coincided with growing attention to supply chain resilience, economic security, and a deteriorating U.S.-China relationship. As a consequence, the interaction between trade, geopolitics, domestic economic policy, and climate policy demands a new holistic approach from policymakers and civil society to find more politically sustainable and effective policy solutions. More consideration should be given to the specifics of U.S. climate strategy when it comes to trade and international relations and how to integrate climate strategy with the Inflation Reduction Act and green industrial policy efforts.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, Geopolitics, Trade, Sustainability, and Green Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
308. China’s Food Security: Key Challenges and Emerging Policy Responses
- Author:
- Kevin Dong, Mallie Prytherch, Lily McElwee, Patricia M. Kim, Jude Blanchette, and Ryan Hass
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Feeding China’s vast population is a priority issue for Beijing, given historic ramifications of famines and food crises for social and regime stability. Yet the task is vast—China must feed nearly 20 percent of the global population but is home to under 10 percent of the world’s arable land—and the challenges to stable food supply are many. These include inefficient agricultural practices, supply chain bottlenecks, changing consumption habits, international trade dynamics, domestic environmental degradation, corruption and data misrepresentation, and a history of food safety scandals. Diagnosing a more contentious international environment, Xi Jinping has placed greater emphasis on agricultural self-sufficiency and diversified sourcing of critical inputs, foodstuffs, technology and know-how. This brief explores key trends, challenges, and policy measures in China’s pursuit of food security. It is part of a joint CSIS-Brookings Institution project, Advancing Collaboration in an Era of Strategic Competition, which seeks to explore and expand the space for U.S.-China collaboration on matters of shared concern.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Food Security, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
309. The Coming Conflict with Hezbollah
- Author:
- Seth G. Jones, Daniel Byman, Alexander Palmer, and Riley McCabe
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Although the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza has captured the world’s attention, there is a serious risk of war between Israel and Hezbollah, according to a new assessment by CSIS. Since October 7, 2023, there have been over 4,400 rocket, missile, and other stand-off attacks by Israel and Hezbollah combined. Hezbollah has also repeatedly violated UN Security Council Resolution 1701 by deploying forces and firing anti-tank guided missiles and other stand-off weapons against Israel from the zone between the Blue Line and the Litani River, according to CSIS geolocation analysis. The United States needs to increase its diplomatic engagement to prevent what could become a much wider and more violent war in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, International Security, Counter-terrorism, Geopolitics, Transnational Actors, Hezbollah, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
310. How Japan Thinks about Energy Security
- Author:
- Ben Cahill, Jane Nakano, and Kunro Irié
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Energy security is a significant challenge for Japan. As an import-dependent country, Japan has sought to protect itself from fossil fuel supply disruptions and shocks by cultivating strong relationships with exporting countries and investing throughout the energy value chain. More recently, both its largest utilities and its state institutions have focused on raising investment in renewable energy, aiming to decarbonize while retaining a diversity of energy sources. The country pledges ambitious but realistic emissions reductions. Transition pathways will vary in every country, and Japan naturally takes a different view on energy matters than resource-rich countries like the United States. Japan’s climate targets and energy planning show that progress is possible without following exactly the same trajectory as Washington or Brussels.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Geopolitics, Sustainability, and Energy Security
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia
311. Friendshoring the Lithium-Ion Battery Supply Chain: Final Assembly and End Uses
- Author:
- William Alan Reinsch, Meredith Broadbent, Thibault Denamiel, and Elias Shammas
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Policies surrounding the lithium-ion battery (LIB) supply chain lie at the intersection of trade, climate, and national security considerations. The LIB supply chain spans the globe, and yet some critical inputs are only produced in a handful of countries—in particular China, which is dominant at several key stages of the technology’s production. The Biden administration appears to have three central, yet misaligned, objectives regarding the LIB supply chain: de-risking away from China’s dominance, reshoring manufacturing capabilities, and accelerating the green transition. To spur the technology’s production and deployment, the United States must undertake several economic and trade policy changes to address gaps in its current approach.
- Topic:
- Innovation, Lithium, Supply Chains, Energy, and Friendshoring
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
312. How China’s Human Capital Impacts Its National Competitiveness
- Author:
- Briana Boland, Kevin Dong, Jude Blanchette, Ryan Hass, and Erica Ye
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- How will the strengths and weaknesses of China’s human capital impact national competitiveness? China’s efforts to maintain economic growth, strengthen supply chains, develop strategic science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) sectors, and secure a modern military edge hinges on the ability to cultivate and utilize human capital. As the United States and other countries increasingly engage in multidomain competition with China, it is critical to start from a clear-eyed understanding of China’s human capital and Beijing’s strategy for nurturing national talent. Investments in higher education, strategic STEM sectors, and military talent demonstrate key areas in which Beijing is focusing on cultivating human capital. However, China must overcome significant obstacles to innovate as it faces substantial demographic pressures, socio-economic inequalities, and challenges to attracting and retaining top talent both domestically and internationally.
- Topic:
- Economic Growth, Human Capital, Supply Chains, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
313. Prioritizing Health System Development in the Pacific: A Layered Approach
- Author:
- Kathryn Paik and Eileen Natuzzi
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- This brief gives an overview of health challenges across the Pacific Islands region and identifies the need for development partners such as the United States to reframe their approach to health system development. The document provides several recommendations for policymakers and development organizations as they work with the Pacific to effectively meet the health needs of the region.
- Topic:
- Development, Health, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- Asia-Pacific and United States of America
314. Not Just Boots on the Beach: How China Can Use Deception, Confusion, and Incrementalism to Change the Status Quo on Taiwan
- Author:
- Jude Blanchette and Hal Brands
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Edited by Jude Blanchette of CSIS and Hal Brands of SAIS, the Marshall Papers is a series of essays that probes and challenges the assessments underpinning the U.S. approach to great power rivalry. The papers will be rigorous yet provocative, continually pushing the boundaries of intellectual and policy debates. In this Marshall Paper, Jude Blanchette and Hal Brands explore four coercive approaches that Beijing could use to change the status quo around Taiwan short of outright invasion or blockade. The paper also highlights the serious challenges Washington and Taipei must address to have a ready response to these scenarios.
- Topic:
- International Security, Territorial Disputes, Geopolitics, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
315. Crafting a Robust U.S. Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
- Author:
- Sanam Rasool, William Alan Reinsch, and Thibault Denamiel
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- The introduction of a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) in the United States presents an intricate policy challenge at the intersection of climate action and international trade. With countries around the world integrating climate considerations into their trade policies, the United States is under growing pressure to develop and implement its own CBAM. This policy tool, already adopted by the European Union, is geared toward leveling the playing field for domestic industries while promoting global climate action and accountability. A future U.S. CBAM could serve as a vital instrument in the nation’s transition toward a net-zero economy, encouraging domestic carbon footprint reduction and driving trading partners to adopt cleaner practices. However, crafting and rolling out such a mechanism comes with knotty challenges, ranging from choosing optimal carbon accounting methods and pricing to warding off potential trade disputes and garnering global collaboration. As the United States charts its course through this complex policy landscape, it has the opportunity to shape global climate action while safeguarding its economic interests.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Economy, and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)
- Political Geography:
- North America, Global Focus, and United States of America
316. Defense Priorities in the Open-Source AI Debate
- Author:
- Masao Dahlgren
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- A spirited debate is taking place over the regulation of open foundation models—artificial intelligence models whose underlying architectures and parameters are made public and can be inspected, modified, and run by end users. Proposed limits on releasing open foundation models may have significant defense industrial impacts. If model training is a form of defense production, these impacts deserve further scrutiny. Preliminary evidence suggests that an open foundation model ecosystem could benefit the U.S. Department of Defense’s supplier diversity, sustainment, cybersecurity, and innovation priorities. Follow-on analyses should quantify impacts on acquisition cost and supply chain security.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Regulation, and Artificial Intelligence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
317. Driving Change: How EVs Are Reshaping China’s Economic Relationship with Latin America
- Author:
- Ilaria Mazzocco, Ryan C. Berg, and Rubi Bledsoe
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are navigating a new geopolitical moment. Some LAC countries are benefitting from increased access to low-cost, high-quality electric vehicles (EVs) and new investment throughout the value chain from China that can help meet governments’ climate and economic objectives. However, this comes with risks, as dependencies on Beijing may be exacerbated at a time when China’s economy is underperforming and geopolitical competition with the United States is on the rise. Washington should find new ways to engage with the region to find solutions that address local demands and simultaneously mitigate U.S. geopolitical risk.
- Topic:
- Global Markets, Economy, Innovation, and Electric Vehicles
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Latin America
318. The Gender-Based Violence Crisis in Haiti
- Author:
- Christopher Hernandez-Roy and Juliana Rubio
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Gender-based violence (GBV) in Haiti is a widespread and escalating problem, exacerbated by the country’s deep-rooted gender inequalities, systemic impunity, and political instability. As the political and security crisis in Haiti has deepened in recent years, the use of GBV, particularly sexual violence, has increased as a systematic tool of intimidation and punishment, and ultimately of control. Local civil society organizations are continuing their efforts to support survivors of GBV, but they require additional external assistance. With the formation of a new interim government and the arrival of the Kenyan-led, UN-backed Multinational Security Support (MSS) Mission earlier in 2024, it becomes imperative to understand GBV’s deeply entrenched roots and recent expansion and escalation in order to begin to effectively address this crisis.
- Topic:
- Inequality, Gender Based Violence, and Sexual Violence
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean and Haiti
319. Energy Security and the U.S.-Philippine Alliance
- Author:
- Harrison Prétat, Yasir Atalan, Gregory B. Poling, and Benjamin Jensen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- The Philippines’ fragile energy outlook threatens to undermine efforts to secure its strategic autonomy vis-à-vis an assertive China. A tabletop exercise held at CSIS this spring with U.S. and Philippine participants explored the strategic implications of different energy investments and their vulnerability to disruption. Bringing online renewable and clean energy sources is an imperative to providing for Philippine energy security in the long term, but fossil fuels will have a critical stabilizing role in the near term. The United States can support its ally through enhanced alliance programing, technical assistance, and new approaches to interagency cooperation.
- Topic:
- Security, Sustainability, Green Transition, and Energy Security
- Political Geography:
- Philippines, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
320. U.S. Investment in the Philippines: More Than Meets the Eye
- Author:
- Japhet Quitzon and Gregory B. Poling
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- The size and scope of U.S.-Philippine economic cooperation is well documented; however, the quantitative and qualitative impacts on the Philippines are poorly understood. Without comprehensive, accurate, and easily accessible data on U.S. investments and their effects in the Philippines, malign actors may promote false or harmful narratives, thereby weakening public support for the U.S.-Philippine alliance. It is crucial for the United States to improve public awareness and understanding of its economic and investment activities in the Philippines.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Investment, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Philippines, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America