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261. Aid for Asylum Hosting: Time to Act

Author:
Laura Chappell, Sam Hughes, and Ian Mitchell
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Following the recently announced cuts to aid spending—taking official development assistance (ODA) from 0.5 percent of GNI to 0.3 percent—it is time for the government to act, to ensure that asylum- and refugee-related costs[I] take up a smaller proportion of the ODA budget. Without action, refugee-related costs could exceed a third of total ODA spending.[ii] At present the FCDO effectively funds any ODA-eligible asylum-related cost that the Home Office can identify. This has contributed to significant unnecessary expenditure on refugee-related costs, with the UK now spending over two-and-a-half times more ODA per refugee than any other G7 economy. This approach also generated extremely high levels of unpredictability in the aid budget, with in-year budget changes larger in percentage terms than, for example, the annual cuts expected of any government department during coalition government austerity. But with a reduced overall ODA budget, the UK must do more to reduce the impact of refugee spending on aid spending. In a much more fiscally constrained environment, every available pound will be required for vital international work. And the FCDO will not have the budget latitude to absorb significant fluctuations in refugee spending, if—as could be the case—its allocable budget is not much larger than potential refugee hosting costs. We identify five options for improving the situation that could be adopted at the forthcoming spending review—or sooner. These options would provide additional downward pressure on refugee-related costs, while also increasing the predictability of the UK’s international spend.
Topic:
Migration, Displacement, Asylum, and Development Assistance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

262. Policy Brief 19: Fragile foundations: Niger's Assises Nationales and the challenge of political renewal

Author:
Antje Herrberg
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Berghof Foundation
Abstract:
The policy brief analyses the Assises Nationales de la Refondation held in Niger in early 2025. It explores the process as a national dialogue aimed at redefining the country’s political order following the 2023 military coup. The brief evaluates the legitimacy, inclusiveness, and implications of the dialogue and the resulting Charter of Refoundation, which functions as a transitional constitution.
Topic:
Politics, Coup, National Dialogue, and Political Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Niger

263. Projections for geopolitical competition to EU Democracy Promotion

Author:
Isabelle Ioannides
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This policy brief is authored by Dr. Isabelle Ioannides (Senior Research Fellow, South-East Europe Programme – ELIAMEP) and published in the context of the project EMBRACing changE – Overcoming Obstacles and Advancing Democracy in the European Neighbourhood (EMBRACE). EMBRACE is a multi-country research initiative (2022–2025) that seeks to strengthen the capacity of EU policymakers and pro-democracy actors to develop effective strategies for democracy promotion across five regions: the Western Balkans, Eastern Europe, the Southern Caucasus, the Middle East, and North Africa. It combines comparative analysis, stakeholder engagement, and new data collection to identify the obstacles and enablers of democratisation and to design practical policy tools for European democracy promotion. Focusing on Work Package 7 – The Geopolitics of EUDP, this policy brief addresses the turbulent geopolitical landscape in which EU democracy promotion must operate. Russia’s and China’s assertive roles, including disinformation campaigns, combine with heightened regional instability, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the spread of polarisation and populism within and beyond Europe. These developments create a volatile environment that constrains democratic progress in the EU’s neighbourhood and, in some cases, drives democratic backsliding. The brief stresses that the EU’s democracy promotion cannot be viewed in isolation from these broader geopolitical dynamics. Against this backdrop, the EMBRACE project organised scenario-building workshops in North Macedonia, Serbia, Ukraine, and Georgia, and conducted stakeholder interviews in Algeria. These consultations had a twofold aim: to assess the democratic trajectories and risks facing each country by 2030, and to evaluate how the EU can mitigate challenges while reinforcing democratic enablers. The locally led approach ensured that country-specific insights and informal power dynamics were captured, helping to refine projections for how external and internal pressures may shape democracy in the coming years. The brief concludes by offering recommendations for the EU to recalibrate its democracy promotion strategies under conditions of geopolitical competition and uncertainty. It underlines that effectiveness depends on tailoring approaches to local realities, anticipating risks through foresight and scenario planning, and reinforcing the EU’s credibility as a consistent and strategic actor. By integrating evidence-based insights and locally grounded perspectives, the policy brief contributes to EMBRACE’s broader mission of equipping the EU with more adaptive and resilient tools for advancing democracy in its neighbourhood.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Europe

264. A deep dive in the White Paper on the Future of European Defence

Author:
Spyros Blavoukos and Panos Politis-Lamprou
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The White Paper on the Future of European Defence, released in March 2025, represents a landmark initiative by the European Commission to articulate a cohesive vision for strengthening the EU’s defence posture amid mounting geopolitical instability. Acting as a framework for the ReArm Europe plan, the document proposes mobilising hundreds of billions of EUR in defence investments, making use of national and EU resources. The ReArm Europe Plan and the White Paper clearly succeed in politically signalling the EU’s renewed commitment to defence investment and military readiness. However, despite their rhetorical strength, four major concerns could undermine their transformative potential: Coordination gaps: Without a robust coordination mechanism, national funds may be allocated to less pressing areas and may serve other – national and/or domestic – objectives and interests. In the meantime, the Union will not achieve effectiveness and efficiency unless it focuses on standardisation and interoperability. Financial markets’ sensitivity: While the activation of the national escape clause offers fiscal leeway, it is unclear how the financial markets will react to increased national debts. Alternative instruments, such as the Defence Eurobonds or the European Defence Mechanism, could be examined. Creative ambiguity: The Proposal for a SAFE Regulation includes references presented vaguely enough to allow for multiple interpretations and thus avoid frictions. In view of the negotiations in the Council, the issue of a third country’s participation in a procurement consortium must be further elaborated and clarified. Democratic legitimacy and parliamentary oversight: Article 122 TFEU sidesteps the European Parliament, despite the latter’s willingness to further support the EU defence initiatives. Without adequate parliamentary involvement, defence investments risk alienating public opinion in a policy area which requires broad societal consensus. All the aforementioned shortcomings reflect a deeper structural issue: the absence of a common threat perception and a truly common foreign and security policy. Without a coherent strategic vision at the EU level, member-states remain inclined to prioritise national over collective objectives and interests.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, European Union, Financial Markets, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe

265. The EU’s Democracy Promotion and Geopolitical Competition

Author:
Ioannis Armakolas, Dimitar Bechev, and Ana Krstinovska
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This policy paper is authored by Ioannis Armakolas, Head & Senior Fellow, South-East Europe Programme, ELIAMEP, Dimitar Bechev, Senior Research Fellow, South-East Europe Programme, ELIAMEP, and Ana Krstinovska, Research Fellow, South-East Europe Programme, ELIAMEP is published in the context of the of the project EMBRACing changE – Overcoming Blockages and Advancing Democracy in the European Neighbourhood. EMBRACE is a multi-country research initiative that aims to enhance democracy promotion efforts in the EU’s neighbourhood by identifying key obstacles to democratisation and formulating evidence-based strategies to overcome them. The project draws on locally led research and stakeholder engagement across twelve case studies in five regions: the Western Balkans, Eastern Europe, the Southern Caucasus, the Middle East, and North Africa. Focusing on Work Package 7 of the project, the report “The EU’s Democracy Promotion and Geopolitical Competition” examines how the European Union’s democracy promotion efforts are shaped and challenged by both external authoritarian actors, primarily Russia and China, and internal political dynamics within partner countries. The report offers an in-depth comparative analysis of five case study countries: Algeria, Georgia, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Ukraine. The authors analyse how authoritarian rivals deploy various forms of coercion, subversion, and co-optation, often exploiting internal political vulnerabilities. They also highlight how domestic elites navigate this external competition, at times instrumentalising their ties with Russia and China to entrench their power and limit EU influence. In this geopolitical context, the paper finds that EU democracy promotion tools are most impactful when tied to credible enlargement prospects and implemented with consistency and strategic sensitivity to local conditions. The paper concludes that democracy promotion is no longer merely a matter of institutional design or normative appeal, it has become a geopolitical contest where foreign influence and domestic agency intersect. As such, future EU strategies must account for this complexity and tailor instruments to local realities while remaining steadfast in their democratic commitments. The report closes with concrete policy recommendations aimed at refining the EU’s approach, particularly in geopolitically contested environments.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Europe

266. Between Power and Paradox: Militarisation, Defence Ambitions, and Turkey’s Strategic Struggles

Author:
Ahmet Erdi Öztürk and Can Selçuki
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Turkey occupies a distinctive position—geographically proximate to the epicentres of regional crises and institutionally is embedded in Western security structures such as NATO. However, Turkey is more than a geopolitical bridge; it has emerged as a multidimensional actor with ambitions to act both as a regional stabilizer and as a global mediator. Turkey’s position within this evolving global order is both advantageous and inherently paradoxical. As a long-standing NATO member, Turkey remains structurally embedded in the Western security architecture. Yet its geostrategic identity—historically, culturally, and geographically intertwined with the volatile landscapes of Eurasia, the Middle East, and North Africa—drives it to adopt a multi-vector foreign policy. From an economic standpoint, Turkey’s position remains marked by deep-seated contradictions. While its customs union with the European Union and strategic access to multiple regional markets confer structural advantages, these are significantly offset by institutional fragility, regulatory ambiguity, and elevated geopolitical risk premiums. Turkey’s defence industry has evolved into more than a military instrument; it is now a key lever for diplomatic influence and geopolitical ambition. Positioned at the heart of NATO, yet often at odds with its Western allies, Ankara has expanded its strategic footprint across the Middle East, North Africa, and the Caucasus by leveraging domestically-developed military platforms. Turkey must articulate a clear strategic rationale to underpin its defence investments. This involves moving beyond reactive threat perceptions and developing a holistic framework that aligns defence policy with broader developmental and diplomatic objectives. The protection of democratic institutions is an integral part of this framework, while two interrelated concepts are essential: economic security and open strategic autonomy.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Geopolitics, Defense Industry, and Militarization
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

267. Turkey’s Defence Industry and the EU SAFE Regulation

Author:
Dimitris Tsarouhas
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
From Ottoman-era modernization through to its advanced capabilities today, Turkey has transformed itself into a major global defence exporter, with $6.3 billion in exports in 2024 and flagship products like the Bayraktar TB2 drone. Turkey leverages its NATO membership and geographic position to strengthen defence ties and secure influence in alliance decision-making, while at the same time contributing to the Alliance advanced technologies. The EU’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) initiative allocates €150 billion for joint defence procurement to boost Europe’s defence industrial base, reduce reliance on non-EU suppliers, and enhance interoperability. Ankara’s SAFE participation rationale rests on enabling technological collaboration, market access, and stronger EU ties, leveraging Turkey’s expertise in drone systems, cybersecurity, and unmanned technologies. Turkey’s SAFE participation should remain conditional on Ankara improving its bilateral political relations with member states, and on making explicit assurances on the inviolability of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all EU member states.
Topic:
Security, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Regulation, Exports, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

268. A Strategy for Greece’s Defence Technological Industrial Base

Author:
Antonis Kamaras
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Greece is entering a new phase in European unification. In addition to monetary union, we now have a defence union. The Greek Defence Technological Industrial Base (GDTIB) is in a position to rise to this challenge. With the help of realistic public policies, it could be included in the top three DTIBs among the eleven frontline EU states, alongside those of Finland and Poland. The successful integration of the GDTIB into the pan-European DTIB will strengthen the Greek Armed Forces, make the defence sector one of Greece’s economy most capital- and knowledge-intensive ones , and enhance Greece’s strategic alliances. Specifically, the more that the GDIB exports to the pan-European DTIB as it grows by leaps and bounds, the more it will advance the productive and innovation capacities which Greece’s military deterrence needs in an era which has witnessed the return of ‘Big War’.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Armed Forces, European Union, Deterrence, and Industry
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

269. The NSRF and the Recovery Fund in Greece, 2021-2027: the institutional dimension

Author:
George Andreou
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
During the current decade, Greece’s development policies are guided and supported by both the Cohesion Policy through the 2021-2027 Partnership Pact for Regional Development (NSRF) and the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) through the National Recovery and Resilience Plan “Greece 2.0”. The parallel action of these two programming and funding instruments represents an unprecedented development opportunity for Greece and its Regions, but raises important issues of strategy, coordination and management. This paper focuses on the institutional architecture and the governance and implementation mechanisms of the NSRF and the RRF and attempts to explore the implications of these institutional arrangements for public policy in Greece.
Topic:
Development, Governance, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

270. What future for rule of law protection? Towards a more effective use of the EU’s toolbox under the vdL 2.0 Commission

Author:
Maria Skóra
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Threats to the rule of law in the EU persist. Halting rule of law erosion in Poland has brought only temporary relief. Continued backsliding in Hungary and recent setbacks in Slovakia pose a threat to European integration and the EU’s legal order. Moreover, illiberal Eurosceptics are also on the rise in other countries, like Italy, Germany, France. Given the potential EU enlargement and the urgent reset of EU’s security and defence architecture, next to defending democracy, it is also crucial to continue strengthening the rule of law within the EU. Faced by the above-mentioned dire developments, the first von der Leyen Commission (2019-2024) placed the rule of law in the spotlight, developing a rule of law toolbox consisting of monitoring and corrective tools. The second von der Leyen Commission (2024-2029) vowed to take this matter seriously, making the strategic decision to continue tackling rule of law erosion by applying financial pressure, in particular: the instruments for protecting the EU budget. This Policy Brief looks at the future of rule of law protection under the vdL 2.0 Commission. It takes stock of the past failures and achievements, identifying paths towards a more effective use of the existing EU’s toolbox. It advocates for further development of financial conditionality, and making it a standard practice as well as building solid causal links between conditionality and the existing monitoring tools in order to avoid accusations of its arbitrary and politicised use. Consistency should become a guiding principle to foster the EU’s commitment to upholding the rule of law.
Topic:
Governance, Reform, European Union, Rule of Law, European Commission, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and Hungary

271. From Reception to Reconstruction: Leveraging a multi-stakeholder approach to displaced Ukrainians’ inclusion

Author:
European Policy Centre
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
The European Union (EU) hosts around 4.2 million displaced Ukrainians under temporary protection, granting them access to various socio-economic rights and allowing intra-EU mobility. Their employment rate is higher than other migrant and refugee groups, yet structural barriers persist, affecting integration outcomes. Temporary protection is set to expire in March 2026, compounding challenges. A potential US-imposed ceasefire adds uncertainty, making long-term planning difficult. While prospects for an EU-wide status for displaced Ukrainians post-2026 are unclear, they can already obtain national permits in some states. Many still hope to return to Ukraine, although this prospect depends on the economic and security situation in Europe and Ukraine, and grows less likely over time. Amid the combined effect of unspeakable devastation from Russia’s full-scale invasion and demographic decline in Ukraine, the country’s reconstruction – and in particular, the future of critical sectors such as construction, transport, agriculture, and public services – depends on displaced Ukrainians’ potential return.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, Refugees, Displacement, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

272. Securing Europe’s civic space: Investing in democracy in the next MFF

Author:
Liza Saris
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
As Europe navigates a period of significant geopolitical transformation and rising illiberalism around the world, the foundational principles of Europe’s liberal democratic societies face challenges from within and from without. Across the continent, civil society organisations (CSOs), including think tanks, have to withstand immense pressures ranging from growing funding constraints to increasingly hostile operating environments. In recent months, clear political obstacles to safeguard civil society funding have emerged from within the European Parliament and the European Commission, as well as at the national level. Hostility towards independent CSOs is worsening thanks to the emboldening of political movements and organisations that are funded by governments who oppose a strong civil society. This trend has the potential to negatively influence upcoming negotiations about funding in the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), which includes the Citizens, Equality, Rights and Values (CERV) programme.
Topic:
Civil Society, Budget, European Union, European Commission, Council of Europe, and Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF)
Political Geography:
Europe

273. Military retention crisis undermines Europe’s defence surge

Author:
Chris Kremidas-Courtney
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Europe is racing to rearm, but its militaries are losing talent faster than they can recruit it. Unless governments prioritize retention, Europe risks building hollow forces that look strong on paper but can’t deliver when it matters. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has triggered Europe’s most profound defence awakening in decades. It is a moment where the continent must reckon with hard choices and, finally, take ownership of its own security. European governments are rearming and raising defence budgets in response to the renewed threat from Moscow. Collective defence spending by EU countries jumped over 30% between 2021 and 2024, and NATO allies have announced ambitious plans to grow their armed forces.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Defense Spending, Russia-Ukraine War, and Armament
Political Geography:
Europe

274. Enhancing Social Protection Amidst Fiscal Constraints: The Botswana 2025/26 Budget

Author:
Lillian Mookodi
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
Botswana has long demonstrated a strong commitment to social protection, with established programmes to support vulnerable populations, reduce poverty, and promote social cohesion. Over the years, these initiatives have played a pivotal role in improving livelihoods and fostering economic inclusion, and reflecting the country’s dedication to inclusive development and social welfare. The 2025/26 budget builds on this legacy by introducing new programmes to improve financial security, child welfare, and housing. These key measures signal Botswana’s strategic shift towards a more inclusive and efficient social protection system, but their long-term success depends on effective implementation, fiscal sustainability, and continuous programme evaluation to ensure delivery of meaningful impact to those who need them most.
Topic:
Poverty, Budget, Sustainable Development, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

275. Budgeting for Effective Anti-Corruption Initiatives in Botswana

Author:
Marumo Omotoye
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
Corruption remains a significant challenge to governance and economic development in Botswana. To tackle this issue, strategic budgeting is essential to ensure that anti-corruption agencies, such as the Directorate on Corruption and Economic Crime, Office of the Auditor General, Financial Intelligence Agency, and Ethics and Integrity Directorate, have the necessary resources to operate independently and efficiently. This Budget Brief examines how enhancing accountability and transparency in budgeting can improve the effectiveness of Botswana’s anti-corruption initiatives. Its thematic focus is on Phase 1 (Halting the financial haemorrhaging in Government) of the Government of Botswana’s strategy to build an inclusive economy.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, Economic Development, and Budgeting
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

276. Egypt’s Expanding Role in the Horn of Africa

Author:
Amanuel Dessalegn Gedebo
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Egypt is stepping up its military, diplomatic and economic presence in the Horn of Africa. In recent months, Cairo has signed a series of economic and security agreements with countries in the region and is preparing to deploy troops to Somalia. These developments come at a time when Egypt is locked in a long-standing water dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which was inaugurated in early September this year. At the same time, Ethiopia’s quest for a direct sea access has strained its relations with its neighbors, some of whom appear to be aligning with Cairo to counterbalance Addis Ababa. If not carefully managed, these dynamics could have serious repercussions for regional stability. First, intensifying competition between Egypt, Ethiopia and other powers risks inflaming ongoing conflicts in Sudan and Somalia. Second, deeper Egyptian involvement could further strain Ethiopia’s already tense relations with its neighbours. Most concerning, an Egyptian military presence in Somalia raises the risk of miscalculation and the possibility of direct confrontation between Egypt and Ethiopia. The Horn of Africa, already beset by multiple conflicts and crowded with external actors vying for influence, can ill afford a further escalation of geopolitical rivalries. Instability in the region would also have consequences far beyond its borders. The African Union, together with the European Union, China and the United States, should therefore use their influence, individually or in concert, to encourage Ethiopia and Egypt to return to negotiations on Nile dispute, help defuse regional tensions linked to Ethiopia’s quest for sea access, and prevent Somalia and Sudan from becoming arenas of proxy conflict.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, African Union, and Regional Stability
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Horn of Africa

277. Saudi and Emirati engagement in Iraq: From sectarianism to investment

Author:
Máté Szalai
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
In addition to the relative stabilisation of Iraq’s security situation, the growing engagement of Gulf states can be attributed to the learning process and changing attitudes in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and elsewhere concerning their various failed attempts to shore up influence in Iraq in the post-2003 period. Until the rise and defeat of Islamic State (IS), most Gulf states pursued a heavily sectarian approach to deal with security risks such as next-door instability and Iranian influence. This tended to amount to supporting Sunni political and militant organisations in Iraq’s periphery against the Iran-backed Shia-dominated political centre. However, the ‘defeat’ of IS, the fragmentation and polarisation of the Shia political landscape, and the changes in Saudi foreign policy implemented by Mohamed bin Salman (MbS) enabled a shift in focus to broader economic and security engagement. This brief aims to interpret and map current Saudi and Emirati efforts to build political, security and economic influence in Iraq and the effects of such efforts on the evolution and stability of Iraq’s current political settlement. An overview of the general Saudi and Emirati strategy towards Iraq since 2017 is followed by a mapping of the main security, political and economic engagement of the two countries after 2020, together with a broad assessment of their effects. The paper aims to contribute to a European re-evaluation of the Gulf states’ strategy towards Iraq. It also assesses the effects of this strategy on the evolution of the Iraqi political system.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Sectarianism, Economy, Economic Growth, Investment, and Engagement
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates

278. Towards Green Industrial Partnerships

Author:
Hannah Lentschig, Giulia Cretti, and Louise Van Schaik
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The European Commission’s Clean Industrial Deal (CID) seeks to accelerate industrial decarbonization, reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports and reinforce economic resilience through stronger technological innovation. This Clingendael Policy Brief explores how partnerships with other countries can support the CID’s objectives. Cooperation for added value around energy and critical raw materials can help to position the EU as a strategic and reliable partner, fostering economic resilience both at home and abroad. Operationalizing this requires clear communication about the EU’s geostrategic interests and a more explicit focus on partner countries’ key concerns, particularly regarding the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Risk-mitigating instruments such as public financial guarantees and CBAM revenues can be more strategically deployed to ramp up private investments under the Global Gateway. This can help to incentivize technology exchange and capacity development in partner countries while bolstering European companies’ competitiveness abroad. Finally, coordination between the EU level and Member States is essential to mainstream green industrial objectives across EU foreign policy, trade and finance.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, Renewable Energy, European Commission, Energy, and Green Industry
Political Geography:
Europe

279. Rethinking Ethiopia's National Dialogue

Author:
Amanuel Dessalegn Gedebo
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Ethiopia is entering a critical period ahead of its 2026 general elections, marked by intensifying armed conflicts, shrinking political space, and a faltering economy. In this context, the government’s flagship National Dialogue process, intended to foster consensus on divisive national issues, risks becoming mere window dressing. While the Dialogue Commission has made progress in convening political actors, its credibility is undermined by the exclusion of key opposition and armed groups, as well as concerns over its independence. This policy brief examines whether the National Dialogue, in its current form, can meaningfully address Ethiopia’s deepening political crisis. It explores the interplay between ongoing civil wars in Oromia, Amhara, and Tigray, the government’s increasingly repressive tactics, and the limitations of the dialogue process. The brief argues that without urgent reforms to ensure inclusiveness and political openness, the National Dialogue may further entrench instability rather than resolve it. It concludes with recommendations for the Ethiopian government and its international partners, including the EU and the Netherlands, on how to recalibrate their approach to support a more credible and constructive path forward.
Topic:
Civil War, Elections, Domestic Politics, Instability, Fragmentation, and National Dialogue
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

280. Armenia and Azerbaijan: Peace or Pause?

Author:
Marina Ohanjanyan
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
At the White House in Washington, on August 8th, Armenia and Azerbaijan initialled a peace deal and signed an agreement on the establishment of the Trump Route for Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP): a transport link connecting Azerbaijan-proper with its exclave Nakhchivan through Armenian territory, which had been a contentious issue in the peace negotiations. While the imagery and potential positive consequences of this should not be underestimated, much is still unclear about what the agreements actually mean, including certain formulations and their interpretation as well as the question of how long the US commitment to the region will last. At the same time, the Washington summit represents an opening and a positive momentum for further development of not only the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process, but larger connectivity in South-Caucasus, and several capitals will have been watching the proceedings keenly. This paper first briefly discusses the agreements reached and some of the remaining questions surrounding them, and then analyses the attitudes and/or reactions of the US, Russia, Iran, Türkiye and the EU, which in some cases, will be crucial to the success or failure of the initiative.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Peace, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and United States of America