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241. The Crisis of Belarusian Sovereignty

Author:
Kaspar Pucek
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Belarus is facing a potentially existential crisis as Russia’s growing influence threatens its existence as a sovereign state. This is to a significant extent a result of Western sanctions and diplomatic isolation. European policymakers should look for opportunities to strength Belarusian sovereignty and strategic autonomy through pragmatic engagement. Pragmatic engagement should focus primarily on normalising diplomatic relations and targeted sanctions relief.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Sanctions, Pragmatism, Foreign Influence, and Political Engagement
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and Belarus

242. The Sudanese army on the battlefield: Strategic context and possible trajectories

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Sudanese army recaptured Wad Madani, the capital of Gezira State, after striking the Rapid Support Forces and weakening their position. Using Wad Madani’s strategic location, the army lifted the siege on Khartoum's General Command, recovered signalling equipment and the oil refinery, setting up for future operations in Darfur.
Topic:
Civil War, Armed Forces, Armed Conflict, Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and Sudanese Armed Forces
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and Darfur

243. The decentralization question: Implications of the Kurdish calculus for the Syrian state

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
In April 2025, Kurdish leaders in Syria proposed a decentralized democratic state, challenging an earlier accord between SDF leader Mazloum Abdi and Damascus. The Syrian government rejected federalism, citing national unity. Fragmentation and regional tensions now complicate hopes for a peaceful resolution.
Topic:
Kurds, Decentralization, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Political Transition, and Mazloum Abdi
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

244. A seismic shift: Toward the integration of the SDF in Syrian institutions

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Syrian Democratic Forces' agreement to join Syria's state institutions marks a major step toward unification. This progress has been shaped by changes in both internal and external contexts. However, challenges remain, particularly in agreeing on the details and dealing with external interventions.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Institutions, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Intervention, and Political Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

245. Suwayda Shows Israel’s Determination to Undermine the Syrian State

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Israel blocked Syria from enforcing control in Suwayda, citing Druze protection. Since Assad’s era, it has used varied pretexts to justify ongoing strikes, weakening Syria’s ability to govern or defend itself, aiming to keep it subordinate and incapable of regaining occupied lands.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Syrian War, Druze, Protection, and Airstrikes
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Suwayda

246. The new Syria: Major challenges of the transition

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
After Bashar al-Assad’s overthrow, Syria's new leaders face key challenges: ensuring security and unifying weapons under a single defence ministry, though some armed factions oppose this. Another challenge is agreeing on the state’s identity, which was expected to be addressed in a national conference, but progress stalled.
Topic:
Leadership, Syrian War, Bashar al-Assad, National Dialogue, and Political Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

247. The dissolution of the PKK: Strengthening Turkey internally and externally

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The PKK announced its dissolution and renounced armed struggle, triggering internal rifts but also paving the way for greater Kurdish political participation in Turkey, increased state investment in development, and stronger ties between Turkey, Iraq and Europe.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, PKK, Public Investment, Political Participation, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

248. Iran in the Israeli Calculus: What Comes Next?

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Israeli-American war on Iran has not fully achieved its intended goals. While it may have caused significant damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities and gained relative advantage in armed confrontations, the underlying hostilities remain unresolved, escalating the risk of renewed military conflict.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Armed Conflict, Nuclear Energy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

249. The war on Iran: End of the battle is a prelude to the next round

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Israel launched a war on Iran to halt its nuclear project. Iran hit vital Israeli sites in response. Unable to act alone, Israel relied on U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Qatari mediation secured a ceasefire, but without resolving root causes, making future escalation likely.
Topic:
Armed Conflict, Escalation, Airstrikes, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

250. Digital Technologies in the Election Cycle – The Case of Albanian Parliamentary Elections 2025

Author:
Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Abstract:
As digital platforms and AI reshape societies worldwide, their impact on elections is increasingly profound. This brief explores how digital tools were used in Albania’s 2025 Parliamentary Elections, examining the roles of the Central Election Committee, political parties, candidates, and civil society. While technology offers opportunities for voter education, transparency, and participation, it also brings risks such as misinformation, unethical campaigning, and gaps in legal oversight. Drawing on international examples and Albania’s own experience, the brief highlights the need for robust safeguards, legislative alignment with EU standards, and strengthened public awareness to ensure digital means strengthen rather than undermines democratic processes.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Artificial Intelligence, Parliament, and Digital Technologies
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Albania

251. A Generation At Risk: Rising youth violence in Albania

Author:
Romario Shehu
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Abstract:
Recent data in Albania indicate a growing trend of youth involvement in violence and criminal behavior, reflecting similar patterns observed across Europe and beyond. In response, state institutions have introduced measures such as the deployment of school safety officers, the “School Safety” package, and plans to install surveillance cameras in schools. However, these efforts remain fragmented and short-term. Addressing youth security in a meaningful way requires primarily a systemic, data-driven approach that examines the forms, root causes and contributing factors of youth-on-youth violence and underreported criminal activity, particularly within and around schools. A comprehensive understanding of these dynamics, combined with stronger institutional coordination, investment in preventive education, and the promotion of youth resilience, is essential to ensuring a safer, more inclusive environment for Albania’s young people.
Topic:
Crime, Education, Youth, Violence, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Albania

252. Media Vassalage: How Venezuela’s TeleSUR Acts as Russia’s and China’s Information- Laundering Front

Author:
Peter Benzoni
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
After a contested July presidential election in which Nicolás Maduro claimed victory with 51% of the vote—amid allegations of irregularities, limited oversight, and too few international observers—Venezuela was thrown into turmoil. The Carter Center, one of the few sanctioned observers, concluded the “election did not meet international standards of electoral integrity and cannot be considered democratic.” To sustain its tenuous grip on power, Maduro’s administration must seek legitimacy from powerful allies such as Russia and China, even while attempting to mend ties with the Trump administration—an effort the latter had warmed to, then cooled on. Digital Forensic Research Lab fellow Iria Puyosa argues that authoritarian regimes across Latin America engage in cross-regional authoritarian collaboration in the form of “strategies to manipulate media and information spaces in order to undermine weak democracies … and help like-minded illiberal leaders seize and consolidate power”. For Venezuela, this manifests in its subordinate relationships with Russia and China, hinging on mutual legitimation—endorsing each other’s elections, governance practices, and policies—and strategic amplification, in which China and Russia promote their preferred narratives and national interests in Venezuela. Yet TeleSUR, Venezuela’s premier state media outlet, does not parrot Russian and Chinese lines under duress. Rather, its editorial line frequently aligns with those of these major powers due to overlapping ideological and political goals, including a shared desire for a multipolar world that counters Western influence and sanctions. This synergy allows Venezuela to secure vital international support and reinforce its domestic legitimacy, thus preserving the Maduro administration’s foothold in power. Venezuela, in turn, recreates this same patron-client relationship with its own regional allies—a dynamic we term “media vassalage.”
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Domestic Politics, Foreign Interference, and Nicolas Maduro
Political Geography:
Russia, China, South America, and Venezuela

253. The US-UK Economic Prosperity Deal

Author:
Penny Naas, Georgina Wright, Eamon Drumm, and Antonia Wunnerlich
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Eighty years to the day after Germany’s surrender in World War II, two of the victorious allies in that conflict unveiled a new economic partnership, the US-UK Economic Prosperity Deal (EPD). It is the first bilateral agreement of its kind concluded by the Trump administration since its new tariff policy was introduced in early April. Leaders have described the EPD as a “trade deal”, but it functions more as a framework for future action. It includes tariff concessions on selected goods, grants greater access to the British market for certain American agricultural products, and outlines areas for future negotiation, including in digital regulation, export controls, and, potentially, investment screening. A separate technology-focused agreement is also planned for both countries to find ways to collaborate on biotech, life sciences, quantum computing, nuclear fusion, aerospace, and space technologies. In substance, the EPD freezes tariffs at 10% for most goods while buying time for technical-level discussions and laying the groundwork for deeper alignment. For the United Kingdom, 30% of whose exports go to its largest export market, the United States, the deal is an important diplomatic win. It is for the United States, too, whose ninth-largest trading partner is the United Kingdom. In 2024, the United States imported $68.1 billion in goods from Britain and exported $79.9 billion to the country. For countries eyeing negotiations with Washington, the EPD underscores that US trade talks are increasingly shaped by national and economic security considerations, not just trade balances. The agreement links future tariff relief to shared approaches on US strategic issues such as digital policy and alignment on export controls, including to China. As Peter Mandelson, British ambassador in Washington, put it, the EPD is the "end of the beginning". Much will now depend on the outcomes of technical-level discussions, which could have direct repercussions on London’s reset talks with the EU.
Topic:
Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Trade, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and United States of America

254. Germany's Role in a Changing Global Order

Author:
Georgina Wright, Tobias Spöri, Joschka Fischer, Julia Friedrich, Tobias Bunde, Dhruva Jaishankar, Karsten Jung, and Carsten Cramer
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
“Germany’s Role in a Changing Global Order” comprises a series of essays addressing Germany’s readiness to adapt to current geopolitical realities. This anthology is the product of several workshops organized by GMF and the Alfred Landecker Foundation on the Zeitenwende, or “turning point”, which marked a major change in Germany’s approach to its security after Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The essays explore Germany's strategic culture, its responsibility for a free and sovereign Ukraine, and its role in the EU and the Indo-Pacific region. They also examine the ways in which Germany can move beyond its "comfort zone” and the importance of social resilience.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Geopolitics, Transatlantic Relations, and International Order
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

255. Russia’s Recent Emigrants: Mobility and Engagement

Author:
Nicolas Bouchet and Anastasia Burakova
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
The large number of pro-democracy individuals among Russians who have left Russia since 2022 raises the question of whether they can contribute from the outside to eventual political change in the country. For democracy donors to explore how to foster this potential, though, they need a great deal more information about them than is so far available. This brief presents initial data from a survey of these emigrants and highlights findings relevant to supporting these emigrants as current or potential actors working toward democratic development in Russia. The survey confirms the potential human capital of the post-2022 emigrants, who are younger and better educated than the average Russian citizen. The majority work in sectors that are based on skills that are also important for and transferable to civic and political activity: information technology, science and education, arts and culture, media and journalism, and public relations and marketing. The earlier narrative of relocated employment for Russian companies is no longer applicable. The economic situation of these emigrants is often precarious, which makes their integrating in host countries more challenging and limits their capacity for civic engagement. The majority of respondents are in EU countries and to a lesser extent in South Caucasus ones. Their residence situation tends to be uncertain, with a sizeable minority living without permanent status in their host country, including by doing visa runs. The latter are particularly in countries of Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and the Western Balkans. The process of concentration of the recent emigrants in EU countries is far from played out. Almost half of respondents say they would like to move from their current host country, with EU countries clearly preferred as a destination. Due to the changing political circumstances in the countries around Russia (such as Georgia), migration flows between countries that grant visa-free entry to Russians are volatile. The main factors respondents say decided them to leave Russia were a mix of the political and war situations. A minority also cited the economic situation. A clear majority say they would consider returning to live in the country, for a mix of reasons but mostly if the political situation there changes. However, most have a high or very high expectation that things in Russia will get worse in the next five years. A strong majority say that they participate in civil projects and activities: in protests, in providing information support, financial support, and expertise, and in organizing events. But the picture is mixed with regard to respondents’ integration in their host country: only a minority describe themselves as fully integrated. There remains a considerable lack of knowledge about the details of current pro-democracy actors and activities in the recent Russian emigration, and even more about any further latent democratic potential that could be tapped within it. Donors and assistance implementers are still trying to understand the democratic potential of this community, yet they cannot wait until they do so fully to support actors in it. There is evidence that this emigration is one potential avenue for pursuing the goal of encouraging and assisting Russian actors trying to roll back the country’s autocracy; the greater the knowledge democracy donors gain about this community, the better they will be able to assess how best to use this opportunity.
Topic:
Civil Society, Migration, European Union, Domestic Politics, Mobility, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Caucasus

256. Disinformation in the City Brief #1: What is disinformation in the city?

Author:
Jessica (Ika) Trijsburg, Paul Costello, William Ridge, Elise Park, and Daniel Pejic
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Disinformation impacts cities. In extraordinary times of rapid information-sharing, distrust, and disruption, cities are on the front line. Local authorities are the level of government most accessible to the people and are tasked with leading communities through ever more complex societal and global challenges. Among those challenges are information manipulation, disinformation, misinformation, mal-information, and information disorder: what’s the difference? The intent of content creators is important, and it distinguishes disinformation from other misleading or harmful information. In this brief, we refer to disinformation as shorthand for various kinds of information manipulation, acknowledging that such campaigns often contain elements of misrepresented truth (mal-information) and may reach wider audiences where groups or individuals unknowingly—and without intent to harm—share false information (misinformation). Disinformation is false information that is deliberately created to harm, mislead, or evoke an emotional response within a target audience. Disinformation includes what is sometimes also called “fake news”, and propaganda. Misinformation is false or misleading information shared without intent to harm, often due to unconscious bias or by accident. This means that innocent and well-meaning people can unknowingly spread false, harmful, and misleading information. The creation and propagation of disinformation, in contrast, is always purposeful. Mal-information is true information that is used with intent to manipulate or harm. Factual information can be harmful where it is used out of context or combined with mis- and disinformation. Together, mis-, dis- and mal-information represent what is called information manipulation or information disorder. In a digitally connected world, information manipulation is a highly complex challenge for decisionmakers and practitioners. Disinformation is often false information. However, through the careful use of mal-information, disinformation can also contain aspects that are truthful. The combination of fake and factual information can be confusing, making it difficult to distinguish between truth and fiction. Weaving small truths within a larger framework of lies can add credibility to disinformation, and makes it more difficult for others to refute
Topic:
Cities, Disinformation, and Information Manipulation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

257. Disinformation in the City Brief #3: Responses

Author:
Jessica (Ika) Trijsburg, Paul Costello, William Ridge, Elise Park, and Daniel Pejic
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Disinformation impacts cities. In extraordinary times of rapid information-sharing, distrust, and disruption, cities are on the front line. Local authorities are the level of government most accessible to the people, and are tasked with leading communities through ever more complex societal and global challenges. The rise of disinformation is a complicated challenge for cities globally. As the disinformation landscape evolves, cities must evolve along with it. This will require innovation, information-sharing, and deployment of response solutions at every stage of the disinformation lifecycle. Using technology, collaboration, and community engagement, cities can, and increasingly do, curtail the harmful impacts of disinformation. Disinformation is information and media content meant to deliberately mislead or evoke an emotional response in a target audience. Disinformation is sometimes also called “fake news” or propaganda.2 The intent of content creators is relevant, and it distinguishes disinformation from misinformation. Misinformation is simply false or misleading information, which might be created or shared due to unconscious bias or accident.3 The creation and propagation of disinformation, in contrast, is always purposeful and calculated to achieve a particular goal or outcome. Cities are increasingly impacted by disinformation. In the following sections, various strategies related to cities’ responses to this growing issue are explored. “Disinformation response” refers to a suite of activities before, during, and after disinformation has been disseminated. These activities may be seen as different response phases that include preemption and early detection; spread prevention and pre-bunking; and debunking and recovery.
Topic:
Cities, Disinformation, Community Engagement, and Information Manipulation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

258. A Reconstruction Law for Ukraine

Author:
Valeriia Ivanova
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
While facing one of the most significant acts of military aggression in modern history, Ukraine must not only defend itself but also rebuild its cities, critical infrastructure, and economy. However, the absence of a comprehensive reconstruction law leads to fragmentation and significant risk of corruption. Projects are addressed through ad hoc government resolutions, and this prevents strategic planning, optimal resource allocation, and coordination between central and local authorities. While ad hoc or experimental approaches and temporary regulatory acts allow for rapid responses to urgent needs, they fail to ensure sustainability and transparency. The lack of defined rules, clear financing mechanisms, and a unified chain of accountability among government agencies exacerbates the risk of inefficient resource use and erodes trust among international partners. The experiences of countries such as Germany and Japan demonstrate that successful recovery is most easily achieved through comprehensive legislation that establishes clear rules, delineates responsibilities, prioritizes projects, and ensures accountability. Ukraine urgently needs this type of law not only to address current challenges but also to lay the foundation for long-term development.
Topic:
Corruption, Law, Reconstruction, Post-Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

259. Lessons in Resilience: Moldova’s Response to Russia’s Hybrid Interference

Author:
Alina Doroftei
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Following the pro-EU outcome of the 2024 presidential election and constitutional referendum, Russia intensified its hybrid campaign against Moldova for the 2025 parliamentary elections. The aim was clear: destabilize the government, weaken public trust in democratic processes, derail Moldova’s EU accession path, and bring to power pro-Moscow actors. Russia deployed a broad set of tactics, including political proxies, oligarchic networks, disinformation, illicit financing, cyberattacks, and attempts at street-level disruption. Despite the sophistication of these measures and the outsourcing to third-country actors, Moldova’s institutions, civil society, and media responded decisively through rapid exposure, dismantling of interference networks, and transparent public communication. The country’s international partners played an important role in bolstering its resilience. The success of the pro-EU Party of Action and Solidarity, which won another parliamentary majority, if reduced, dealt a heavy blow to Moscow and its allied oligarchs. Russia’s interference was part of a long-term multi-layered destabilization campaign abusing democratic freedoms. At its core, it sought to normalize the perception that Moldova could not conduct a fair, sovereign vote while empowering pro-Russia or anti-establishment forces. Ultimately, the strategy relied on mercenaries, corrupt networks, and short-term political technologies that lacked broad appeal. Moldova’s legislative and institutional reforms curbing illicit financing and safeguarding electoral integrity blunted these tactics, although uneven judicial interventions related to the exclusion of certain parties also risked casting a shadow over the process. There are now three main priorities for Moldova’s democracy. First, Moldova must consolidate institutional readiness against hybrid threats and restore public trust, especially in the judiciary. The swift interagency response around the elections should be developed into a permanent, institutionalized framework. Clearly defined roles for the Supreme Security Council, the Strategic Communication Centre, and the Crisis Management Centre are essential. Second, the fight against polarization and erosion of public trust must be intensified. Strengthening communication capacities, working with civil society experts, promoting digital literacy, and cooperating with independent watchdogs and platforms are all needed to counter disinformation and coordinated inauthentic behavior. There is a risk of civic pluralism shrinking under the pressure of malicious lawsuits, polarization, and economic constraints. Platforms could be established that provide civic actors with timely access to legal aid, cyber defense, and more sustainable funding. Third, international engagement with Moldova must be sustained and predictable. Following the successful completion of its EU accession screening in September, negotiations need to be fasttracked. With US assistance cut, the EU and other donors need to step in more consistently, focusing on long-term core funding for civil society organizations and media. Moldova’s experience should also inform EU-wide resilience mechanisms, including developing new bilateral and cross-border cooperation targeting mainly inauthentic online behavior and illegal political financing. Moldova’s elections have showed that determined institutions, an active civil society, and international solidarity can resist Russia’s hybrid campaigns. Yet resilience remains fragile. Sustained reforms, economic development, societal cohesion, and long-term donor commitment are indispensable for consolidating Moldova’s democratic path and for ensuring stability in a region that remains a target of Moscow’s disruptive strategies.
Topic:
Security, Elections, European Union, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Moldova

260. How to Help Ukraine Strengthen Democratic Resilience During and After the War

Author:
Yana Brovdiy
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Russia’s full-scale invasion since 2022 has transformed Ukraine’s domestic landscape, forcing the state to balance wartime governance with the pursuit of long-term transformative reforms. Despite the centralization of power under martial law, the government has continued efforts toward EU integration and institutional strengthening. Political competition has narrowed but not disappeared: while opposition parties challenge aspects of governance, they support the war effort and reform trajectory. Civil society and volunteer groups have assumed unprecedented roles in oversight, service delivery, and sustaining national morale, compensating for state limitations. Independent media, though operating under pressure, remain critical in keeping the government accountable and countering disinformation. The public’s confidence increasingly rests with the country’s wartime leaders, reflecting a shift in political legitimacy. Even under severe economic and humanitarian strain, the population’s commitment to democratic values and a European future endures. Ukraine’s integration into Western political, economic, and security structures deepened after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and accelerated following the full-scale invasion. International assistance remains vital for sustaining its defense, economy, and reform agenda. The EU’s €50 billion Ukraine Facility and progress in accession talks highlight its continued commitment, yet divisions among member states, notably Hungary’s veto threats and differing priorities, slow collective action. Meanwhile, US policy toward Ukraine under President Donald Trump has become more transactional and unpredictable, creating uncertainty over long-term military support. NATO members and partners have stepped up coordination through mechanisms such as the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List, but the lack of unified Western leadership complicates strategic planning. This brief outlines for the medium term three scenarios for Ukraine’s democratic resilience, depending on how the war, diplomatic efforts, and domestic political dynamics evolve. The most likely one is the war continuing without a ceasefire, and ongoing martial law, societal fatigue, and political uncertainty eventually create the conditions for a government of national unity. The second-most likely scenario is a ceasefire providing temporary relief and space for governance, and opening the way for increased pressure for elections, even with the war unresolved and the country exposed to Russian interference. A peace agreement followed by elections is the least likely scenario at the time of writing, which, without complete domestic acceptance and strong international security guarantees, could destabilize Ukraine politically. To help Ukraine sustain its sovereignty, democratic governance, and European integration, its international partners should provide continuous, reliable military support and concrete security guarantees. They should reinforce independent institutions, including anti-corruption bodies and the judiciary, while backing civil society and independent media to maintain accountability. Supporting the development of new political actors and harnessing the growing influence of veterans can also strengthen democratic norms and political pluralism. Assistance should also promote cohesion across government and society to prevent and to reduce polarization and external Russian interference, ensuring Ukraine’s resilience during the war and in the ongoing and postwar reconstruction.
Topic:
Sovereignty, European Union, Democracy, Resilience, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine