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3532. China’s Nuclear Arms Race: How Beijing Is Challenging US Dominance in the Indo-Pacific
- Author:
- Elisabeth Suh and Leonie Reicheneder
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- China is building up its military capabilities. Not only is the country investing heavily in conventional arms, but it is also modernizing its nuclear weapons. To secure its nuclear deterrent, China is diversifying its delivery systems. The United States sees this as a challenge to its military superiority in the Indo-Pacific region. Washington and Beijing are both fueling a qualitative arms race by investing in new capabilities. This spiral poses risks to stability that affect Germany and Europe as well.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Geopolitics, and Military
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
3533. Israel and the Persian Gulf: A Source of Security or Conflict?
- Author:
- Steven Simon
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- • In the current geopolitical context, the Abraham Accords, which normalized Israel’s relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain during the final months of the Trump administration, could prove destabilizing by lowering the bar for Israeli military action against Iran.1 • The destabilizing potential of the Abraham Accords will increase if talks to revive the Iran nuclear agreement collapse. This, in turn, suggests that revival of the accord, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, remains important for U.S. security and regional stability. • By securing the JCPOA and supporting diplomacy between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the U.S. maximizes the viability and utility of the Abraham Accords as well as their compatibility with a new and more inclusive regional security architecture. But supporting only the Abraham Accords without reentering the JCPOA and encouraging multilateral dialogue among the Arab Gulf states and Iran could transform the accords from a potential strategic asset to a liability.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Regional Integration
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Persian Gulf
3534. Will a Military Withdrawal from the Middle East Leave a Vacuum?
- Author:
- Mark Perry
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- • The Biden administration must not allow disputes among combatant commanders about resource allocation to dictate decisions concerning U.S. force posture. The White House has acknowledged that the Middle East is no longer as central a concern to our national security as it once was and that the U.S. must reshape its military presence in the region. • Fears that Russia or China might take advantage of a reduction in the U.S. military presence in the Middle East are exaggerated. China and Russia have both benefited from America’s willingness to shoulder the security burden of the Middle East. • Washington should complement its reduced military presence in the Middle East with greater diplomatic involvement. The objectives should be retaining influence and advancing U.S. interests in a peaceful and stable environment.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, National Security, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
3535. Promoting Peace and Stability in the Maritime Order Amid China’s Rise
- Author:
- Rachel Esplin Odell
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- A shift in the balance of maritime power in the Indo–Pacific region is contributing to rising tensions. This shift is accompanied by a mismatch in perceptions between the United States and China, which is in turn driving a dangerous great-power rivalry at sea. China’s growing presence, assertive behavior, and expansive claims in the maritime domain are also provoking a backlash among China’s neighbors and even some countries far from its shores. While these tensions have thus far remained under control, they could erupt into conflict if not carefully managed. To promote peace and stability in the South China Sea and beyond, the United States should pursue a bilateral détente with China in the maritime domain while also promoting the development of a more inclusive regional and global maritime order. The specific steps the United States should implement include: • Incentivize reduced militarization of the disputes in the South China Sea and East China Sea, and support compromise between China and other claimants to maritime jurisdiction and rights; • Significantly reduce the frequency of freedom of navigation operations, and instead promote bilateral and regional agreements on military activities at sea; and • Build more robust maritime crisis-management mechanisms with China.
- Topic:
- Maritime, Crisis Management, Peace, Strategic Stability, and Militarization
- Political Geography:
- China, United States of America, Indo-Pacific, and South China Sea
3536. Drawdown: Improving U.S. and Global Security Through Military Base Closures Abroad
- Author:
- David Vine, Patterson Deppen, and Leah Bolger
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- Despite the withdrawal of U.S. military bases and troops from Afghanistan, the United States continues to maintain around 750 military bases abroad in 80 foreign countries and colonies (territories). These bases are costly in a number of ways: financially, politically, socially, and environmentally. U.S. bases in foreign lands often raise geopolitical tensions, support undemocratic regimes, and serve as a recruiting tool for militant groups opposed to the U.S. presence and the governments its presence bolsters. In other cases, foreign bases are being used and have made it easier for the United States to launch and execute disastrous wars, including those in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia, and Libya. Across the political spectrum and even within the U.S. military there is growing recognition that many overseas bases should have been closed decades ago, but bureaucratic inertia and misguided political interests have kept them open. Amid an ongoing “Global Posture Review,” the Biden administration has a historic opportunity to close hundreds of unnecessary military bases abroad and improve national and international security in the process. The Pentagon, since Fiscal Year 2018, has failed to publish its previously annual list of U.S. bases abroad. As far as we know, this brief presents the fullest public accounting of U.S. bases and military outposts worldwide. The lists and map included in this report illustrate the many problems associated with these overseas bases, offering a tool that can help policymakers plan urgently needed base closures. Fast facts on overseas U.S. military outposts • There are approximately 750 U.S. military base sites abroad in 80 foreign countries and colonies. • The United States has nearly three times as many bases abroad (750) as U.S. embassies, consulates, and missions worldwide (276). • While there are approximately half as many installations as at the Cold War’s end, U.S. bases have spread to twice as many countries and colonies (from 40 to 80) in the same time, with large concentrations of facilities in the Middle East, East Asia, parts of Europe, and Africa. • The United States has at least three times as many overseas bases as all other countries combined. • U.S. bases abroad cost taxpayers an estimated $55 billion annually. • Construction of military infrastructure abroad has cost taxpayers at least $70 billion since 2000, and could total well over $100 billion. • Bases abroad have helped the United States launch wars and other combat operations in at least 25 countries since 2001. • U.S. installations are found in at least 38 non-democratic countries and colonies.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Military Affairs, and Military Bases
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
3537. China and the Persian Gulf in the Aftermath of a U.S. Withdrawal
- Author:
- Steven Simon
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- • Given longstanding U.S. economic ties to the Arab Gulf states, the withdrawal of the U.S. military would not mean the United States is departing from the region. Even if it did signify that, however, China would be unlikely to fill the vacuum. A U.S. decision to maintain a military presence in the region should therefore not be based on fear of a strategic vacuum that China will fill to America’s disadvantage. • The United States should leverage China’s interest in stable cross–Gulf relations by working in tandem with Beijing to encourage dialogue and confidence-building measures. • The United States should monitor Chinese military deployments to the Indian Ocean and work with Gulf partners to set limits on China’s military use of air and naval bases. This would serve as a confidence-building measure and ensure that the Gulf does not become an arena for competition amid heightened Sino–American tensions.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Military Affairs, and Strategic Engagement
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Persian Gulf, and United States of America
3538. Climate Change: The Greatest National Security Threat to the United States
- Author:
- Anatol Lieven
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- Climate change presents threats to the United States and the wellbeing of its citizens that dwarf those from Russia, China, or Iran. U.S. government policies and priorities should be reoriented accordingly. The necessary policy changes are these: • U.S. strategy toward China should be crafted and focused with a view to making sure tensions between the two countries do not impede international action against climate change. A zero-sum relationship between the great powers will ensure continued prioritization of manageable military threats over existential climate perils. This is precisely the policy framework that must be superseded. • Spending on efforts to limit climate change and mitigate its effects should take precedence over military spending, especially on new, vast, and nonessential programs such as the upgrading of America’s nuclear forces, which are already much larger than nuclear deterrence requires. • International aid should be increased and redirected toward building resilience against climate change in endangered countries, especially, but not only, in Central America. • The United States should seek opportunities to work with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, to improve climate resilience in Asian and African countries. • The United States should maintain cooperation and trade with China in the area of renewable energy technology.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, International Cooperation, National Security, and Renewable Energy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
3539. 2021 Small Arms Trade Transparency Barometer
- Author:
- Elodie Hainard and Olena Shumska
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- The 2021 edition of the Small Arms Trade Transparency Barometer—which scores the transparency of top and major exporters’ reporting on authorized arms trade activities carried out in 2018—finds Switzerland to be the most transparent small arms exporter. Countries scored an average of 12.61 points out of a maximum of 25, which is a slight increase of last year’s score (12.36). The most transparent countries are, in descending order: Switzerland (21.75 points), the Netherlands (21.00), Germany (20.25), Serbia (19.75), and the United Kingdom (19.50). Meanwhile, North Korea (0.00 points), Iran (0.00), Saudi Arabia (0.50), and Israel (3.00) remain the least transparent countries in terms of arms trade activities.
- Topic:
- Weapons, Transparency, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Europe
3540. Democratization, Poverty Reduction and Risk Mitigation in Fragile and Post-Conflict States
- Author:
- Jamal Saghir and Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University (ISID)
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic has caused the most severe recession in recent decades, with a cumulative loss to global GDP of around $9 trillion. Climate disasters continue to affect the most vulnerable populations and countries, affecting more than 50 million people in 2020. Investments in climate adaptation and resilience have been insufficient in recent years. Global investments only reached $30 billion in 2017-2018, against estimated needs in developing countries between $140 and $300 billion per year by 2030. As governments worldwide design and begin implementing post-pandemic economic recovery programs, investments in adaptation and resilience provide a unique opportunity to generate jobs, restart economic growth, and tackle the inequities made more acute by the pandemic. We discuss practical policy and program options to achieve these multiple objectives.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Science and Technology, Infrastructure, Investment, Resilience, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus