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3321. Who's First Wins? International crisis response to Covid-19

Author:
Florence Gaub and Lotje Boswinkel
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
The Covid-19 pandemic appears to be not just a test for healthcare systems around the world, but an international contest for which country has the best political system. As the People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), boasted in an article published in early March, “China’s battle against the epidemic showed that the CCP, as China’s ruling party, is by far the political party with the strongest governance capability in human history.”1 It pointed the finger at Europe for “acting too little and too late, and largely failing to stem the tide”.2 Slow response time, high rates of transmission, and a general unwillingness to impose restrictive emergency measures were ascribed to the inherent deficiencies of open democratic, liberal systems, making them appear unfit to deal with health crises or indeed for governance generally. In this Brief, we put this hypothesis to the test: did democracies really respond less swiftly than authoritarian systems – and if the determining factor is not the political system, what are the key elements in crisis response?
Topic:
Transnational Actors, Crisis Management, COVID-19, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3322. Gender Counts: Assessing Global Armed Violence Datasets for Gender Relevance

Author:
Anna Alvazzi del Frate, Gergely Hideg, and Emile LeBrun
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Sound and timely gender-relevant data is key for adequately and comprehensively addressing armed violence. Global databases have the potential to highlight relevant gendered dynamics, but currently lack crucial information related to the sex and gender of victims as well as the context of the violent events monitored. Gender Counts: Assessing Global Armed Violence Datasets, a Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey, highlights these knowledge gaps and indicates ways towards filling them. Reviewing global, regional, and national datasets on lethal violence—including on homicides, and conflict-related fatalities—the study finds that gender relevance of the available data across the board is still low. However, recent developments in the 'Data Revolution' connected to efforts to implement the 2030 Agenda have demonstrated that it is possible to move in the direction of better data on the gendered dimensions of violence. Increasing political support and civil society commitments have started producing more gender-relevant data for a range of related lethal violence, small arms, and gender indicators. The study therefore sees room for optimism, and data for gender analyses will likely be more inclusive and gender-relevant in the near future.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Gender Issues, Violence, and Survey
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3323. Conflict and Cooperation: Transitions in Modern Ethiopian-Sudanese Relations

Author:
John Young
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
The Nile River bears considerably on inter-state relations among the countries through which it flows; with struggles over control of its waters driving the political undercurrents of the region. Ethiopia and Sudan exemplify such relations, shaped as much by the ebb and flow of the Nile as the rise and fall of the regimes that have governed them. This Briefing Paper by the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project analyzes this relationship and its place in a politically dynamic and evolving region. Conflict and Cooperation: Transitions in Modern Ethiopian–Sudanese Relations finds that the cold war both shaped and was itself shaped by the conflicts within and between the two countries. Following the end of the cold war, relations considerably improved under President Omar al-Bashir in Sudan and Prime Minister Meles Zenawi in Ethiopia. However, the recent emergence of new governments in both countries does not guarantee a cordial relationship in the future as on-going political reforms, internal threats, and external influences from powerful states weigh heavily on both countries.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and Ethiopia

3324. A Missing Mandate? Casualty Recording in UN Peace Operations

Author:
Hana Salama
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
UN peace operations are uniquely positioned—and mandated—to collect and monitor data on conflict-related casualties. Through the collection and analysis of this type of data, UN missions can both improve the effectiveness of peace operations and assist the international effort among UN Member States to achieve progress towards Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 16—particularly Indicator 16.1.2 on conflict-related deaths. This Briefing Paper by the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) and Human Security Baseline Assessment in Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) projects examines the current capacity of UN peace operations as data providers. A Missing Mandate? Casualty Recording in UN Peace Operations reviews current practices of data collection in UN operational settings and provides case studies through three UN peace operations in the DRC, Mali, and South Sudan. The paper, authored by casualty recording expert Hana Salama, concludes that UN missions already do much of the work required but lack the effectual mandate, resources, and coordination to ensure that the information is useful for the purpose of the SDGs.
Topic:
Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Sustainable Development Goals, Conflict, Peace, and Human Security
Political Geography:
Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, and South Sudan

3325. Hollow Promises: The Risks of Military Integration in Western Equatoria

Author:
Flora McCrone
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
In 2018, the Government of the Republic of South Sudan (GoSS), the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), and the South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA) signed the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS). As part of the transitional security arrangements within the R-ARCSS framework, all warring parties agreed to assemble combatants in designated cantonment sites to facilitate their training, and later, integration into a new ‘unity’ army or other national security services. A Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project examines the process of cantonment and the challenges in operationalizing the Agreement. Hollow Promises: The Risks of Military Integration in Western Equatoria describes the transitional security arrangements of the R-ARCSS and the scope of force sizes to be cantoned. It follows with a case study of Western Equatoria’s Arrow Boys, demonstrating how their involvement exposes some of the fault-lines within the broader integration process. The Briefing Paper finds that the implementation of the R-ARCSS is leading to deteriorating local security, community cohesion, and stability.
Topic:
Security, Treaties and Agreements, Military Affairs, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

3326. Covert Carriers: Evolving Methods and Techniques of North Korean Sanctions Evasion

Author:
Hugh Griffiths and Matt Schroeder
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
For more than a decade the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), in defiance of UN sanctions, has found ways to systematically smuggle arms and other illicit goods in and out of the country. This Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey provides a detailed overview of how the DPRK evades sanctions by employing its diplomatic resources and exploiting key loopholes relating to transport, logistics, and proliferation finance. Covert Carriers: Evolving Methods and Techniques of North Korean Sanctions Evasion emphasizes the importance for UN member states, logistics companies, and global banks to adequately screen and monitor North Korean activities and transactions. The study also highlights how new information-sharing mechanisms would strengthen the ability of states, private industry, and the UN Panel of Experts to better detect ongoing North Korean violations and dismantle existing sanctions evasion networks.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Sanctions, and Trafficking
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

3327. Tri-border Transit: Trafficking and Smuggling in the Burkina Faso–Côte d’Ivoire–Mali Region

Author:
Roberto Sollazzo and Matthias Nowak
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
The tri-border area between Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, and Mali has long been an important zone of commerce for West Africa, and a key transit route for the trade flowing between the Gulf of Guinea, the Sahara, Sahel, and Mediterranean. In recent years, however, smuggling and trafficking has risen in the subregion because of the growing demand for illicit goods and firearms. This demand is fueled by communities’ need for self-defense due to banditry and the increased presence of jihadist groups; needs of traditional hunters and non-state security providers; and the ecosystem around artisanal and small-scale gold mining in which criminals seek weapons to target the miners who in turn equip themselves with firearms for protection against attacks. These dynamics heighten the risk of insecurity and instability. Tri-border Transit: Trafficking and Smuggling in the Burkina Faso–Côte d’Ivoire–Mali Region, by the Survey's Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) project, takes a detailed look at the actors enabling smuggling and arms trafficking in the region, identifies the drivers of this traffic, and analyzes the impacts on local communities. The paper finds that there are three key trafficking axes in the area and that states are largely unable to control their borders and prevent these activities. The study also shows that illicit firearms are often trafficked together with other smuggled goods such as gold or drugs, using the ant trade method.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Weapons, Political stability, Trafficking, and Smuggling
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, Côte d'Ivoire, and Burkina Faso

3328. President Joe Biden and the restoration of US global leadership: Turning the tide?

Author:
Ville Sinkkonen, Charly Salonius-Pasternak, Bart Gaens, and Niklas Helwig
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Te election of Joe Biden as president and Kamala Har- ris as vice president of the United States has generally been welcomed across the world. Allies and partners are relieved that they will again be treated with respect as common issues are addressed, while having been re- minded that they too must ‘step up’ and not only rely on the United States. Even adversaries and competitors acknowledge that it is preferable for the north star of US foreign policy to be something other than impul- sive unpredictability. Based on Joe Biden’s worldview, the world will see a return to more traditional foreign policy precepts. Tis is refected in Biden’s choice of individuals for senior security policy positions in his administration. While the United States is a global power, each ad- ministration addresses the more enduring national interests in diferent ways. In the coming years, key issues to address include, frst, global challenges such as climate change and pandemics; second, strength- ening the transatlantic relationship and global coop- eration between democratic states more broadly; and third, reinforcing the US relationship with various Asian allies and partners, and managing competition with China. From a Nordic perspective, the Biden ad- ministration is expected to continue the cooperative agenda regarding regional security (bolstering defence cooperation and deterring against Russian encroach- ment) carried over from the Obama and Trump admin- istrations, while more robustly addressing global issues such as climate change.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, International Cooperation, Hegemony, Leadership, and Transition
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

3329. China’s policy towards Belarus and Ukraine: A limited challenge to Sino-Russian relations

Author:
Ryhor Nizhnikau and Marcin Kaczmarski
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
China traditionally pursued a pragmatic foreign poli- cy in the post-Soviet region, which was never seen as a priority in Beijing. It primarily based its policies on economic engagement with the local elite, who sought sources of politically unconditional loans and invest- ment, as well as the possibility to hedge their foreign policies vis-à-vis other regional powers. A growing economic presence promoted Chinese core interests in the region without challenging Russia’s political pre-eminence in the region and jeopardizing Rus- sia-China relations. However, in recent years, two factors have afect- ed the status quo and have led to greater engagement in the region by China. First, the region became an important part of China’s Silk Road Economic Belt, and Belarus and/or Ukraine became a transport hub between China and the EU. Second, Russia’s policies turned more assertive towards its neighbourhood, whereas the EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood policies lost steam after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine confict in 2014. Te new regional environment and domestic instabilities duly increased the importance of China for local elites. This Briefing Paper overviews the evolution of China’s cooperation with Belarus and Ukraine since 2013. One of the results has been a growing contrast in Chinese relations with Belarus and Ukraine. While China-Ukraine relations were driven by economic co- operation and a tremendous growth in bilateral trade, their political relations stagnated. China-Belarus rela- tions, on the other hand, have increasingly prioritized enhanced political and defence cooperation, despite consistent attempts by the Belarusian side to build up a Chinese economic presence in the country. Te paper argues that China deliberately opts to steer clear of power competition in the region and chooses to recognize both Russian special interests in the region and countries’ own foreign policy choices, be they integration with the EU or Russia. In Belarus and Ukraine, Beijing seems to exercise self-restraint in its policy, taking Russia’s interests into consider- ation. However, its growing presence in economic and cultural spheres as well as local elites’ increasing interest in engaging China in manoeuvring in the EU-Russia confict creates a window of opportunity for Beijing to apply its increasing economic and po- litical resources for political ends in the long-term perspective.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Regionalism, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and Belarus

3330. Consumer Expenditure Inequality in Botswana

Author:
Lillian Mookodi
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
For over three decades, Botswana has achieved a fast growing economy, with an annual growth in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) averaging 10.9 percent in the period 1981- 90, faster even than the East Asian Tigers or China (Good and Hughes, 2002). Between 2000 and 2001 financial year, Botswana’s economy recorded higher growth rates of 9.1 percent, an increase from 8.1 percent recorded between 1999 and 2000, which was mainly attributed to the growth in the mining sector (BIDPA Briefing, 2002). To emphasise on the desire to continue growing, Botswana has adopted Vision 2036, and other development strategies and policies to improve the implementation of interventions tackling unsatisfactory social indicators. Botswana has also subscribed to both continental and international frameworks, such as the Africa Agenda 2063 and United Nations (UN) Millennium Declaration and its Eight Millennium Development Goals, and further signed up for the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of 2030. Regardless of the afore-mentioned positive growth, and immense efforts, the country has not achieved the desirable results it sought with regard to some of the social indicators, such as employment, unemployment, inequality and poverty.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Poverty, Labor Issues, Inequality, Demand, Unemployment, and Consumerism
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana