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3211. Who will succeed Angela Merkel? Germany in a state of uncertainty three weeks before the federal elections

Author:
Corinne Deloy
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
On 9 December, the President of the Federal Republic of Germany, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, informed his fellow citizens that the next federal elections would take place on 26 September 2021. 54 political parties are standing for election, a record number in Germany's history. In the 1990s and early 2000s, fewer than 30 parties ran. In the last federal election in 2017, there were 42. The only certainty of the election is that Germany will have a new chancellor since Angela Merkel, after 16 years of government by her party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) in a "grand coalition", with the exception of the years 2009-2013 when she governed with the Liberal Democratic Party (FDP), is not seeking reelection. After four terms as the head of the country's government, Angela Merkel remains very popular: last May, she held 60% of positive opinions and was ahead of all other political figures in Germany. "Germans appreciate Angela Merkel as a good manager, a chancellor who always seeks compromise,” declared Markus Inden of Trier University.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Domestic Politics, and Angela Merkel
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

3212. In support of European Apprenticeships “Only the interest of the trainees counts”

Author:
Jean Arthuis
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The European Union’s flagship programme, Erasmus+ is about to celebrate its thirty-fifth anniversary. It is both a formidable instrument for mobility, helping young people to discover other practices and other cultures and to speak a foreign language, as well as a formidable lever for broadening professional horizons and opening up to European citizenship. In recognition of its success, the Council and the Parliament have just increased its budget by 80% for the coming years. This financial effort will ensure that its benefits are finally spread to all young people, beyond the ranks of higher education. The "generations of Erasmus students" still include few apprentices who have experienced genuine immersion, long enough to produce all its beneficial effects. Mobility is a factor of inclusion offered to all young people, in particular to those who have struggled to find their place in general education. Vocational training is a healthy alternative because it gives confidence and self-esteem. Through apprenticeship, all young people, regardless of their educational background and abilities, are able to reveal their personal talent, which is often ignored and sometimes thwarted by the academic framework. The combination of learning and mobility, which is still unusual, is certainly a path to excellence. Its deployment is overdue, in the interests of young people, employers and the economy of the EU Member States.
Topic:
European Union, Employment, Economy, Mobility, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Europe

3213. The Common Agricultural Policy 2023-2027 Change and Continuity

Author:
Bernard Bourget
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
It was on 25 June, at the end of the Portuguese Presidency of the Council of the European Union, that the agreement on the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for the years 2023 to 2027 was adopted, three years after the publication of the Commission's proposals for a regulation on 1 June 2018. Before examining the content of this “new” CAP, It would be worthwhile to recall the changes it has undergone over the last three decades, since the major reform of 1992, and to take stock of them. A policy is considered to be alive if it can evolve and adapt to changes in its environment. From this point of view, the CAP is still very much alive.
Topic:
Agriculture, Environment, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe

3214. The AUKUS agreement, what repercussions for the European Union?

Author:
Elie Perot
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
On 15 September, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States announced the formation of a partnership called "AUKUS", with the aim, among other things, of providing the Australian Navy with nuclear-powered submarines over the next few decades. This trilateral agreement, presented by US President Joe Biden as responding to "the imperative of ensuring peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific over the long term", serves the unstated but obvious purpose of counterbalancing an increasingly powerful, and sometimes aggressive, China in its neighbourhood and on the international scene. As such, the AUKUS agreement is not in itself fundamentally opposed to the objectives and interests of the European Union and, in particular, of France - the Member State that had been until now most strongly engaged in the Indo-Pacific in response to the Chinese challenge. Yet the announcement of the trilateral partnership between Canberra, Washington and London led to a particularly severe crisis with Paris, with France losing a major deal it had had with Australia since 2016 for the supply of 12 conventionally powered (dieselelectric) submarines. With the telephone exchange between Presidents Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron on 22 September, during which it was acknowledged that "the situation would have benefitted from open consultations among allies on matters of strategic interest to France and our European partners", it is possible that the worst of this diplomatic crisis is now over. The question now is whether this sequence, which at first sight was played out at the bilateral level between France and the three AUKUS states, could have wider and longer-term repercussions at the EU level. With this in mind, this paper first proposes to understand the new AUKUS agreement in its proper perspective, since above all it signifies a reinforcement of military industrial cooperation between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States rather than a true diplomatic revolution with regard to China. The paper then looks at the French response to this new partnership, emphasising that it was first and foremost the secrecy surrounding the formation of AUKUS, and not so much the resulting breach of the Franco-Australian submarine contract, that led to such high levels of diplomatic tension. Finally, this paper seeks to assess the extent to which France succeeded in bringing this crisis to the European level, with what consequences, but also what limitations.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia

3215. The New European Pact on Immigration and Asylum can it respond to future migration challenges?

Author:
Catherine Wihtol de Wenden
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
In September 2020, the European Commission, through its Chair Ursula von der Leyen, launched the third European Pact on Immigration and Asylum, The first one dates from 2008 and the second from 2014, i.e. one every six years. This pact, like the previous ones, is not a treaty but a consensus commitment on common principles for the governance of migration and asylum in Europe. In the context in which it is set, it requires more compromise than the previous ones: the Syrian crisis of 2015 revealed the lack of solidarity between Member States regarding the reception of Syrian refugees, the lack of trust between States regarding the proposals made by the European Commission to “share the burden”, with Jean-Claude Juncker's quotas and the divide between Eastern and Western Europe between the socalled Višegrad countries (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia) and Western Europe, notably Germany, which received more than one million asylum seekers in 2015. It will therefore take more time for the new Pact to be adopted unanimously by the European Council and undoubtedly, more negotiations and even bargaining. In the current context, following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover, which raises concerns about the arrival of new Afghan refugees, does the new Pact offer the necessary instruments to formulate a common and effective response to future migration challenges?
Topic:
Migration, Treaties and Agreements, Immigration, European Union, and Asylum
Political Geography:
Europe

3216. The 23rd EU-Ukraine Summit at a time of changes

Author:
Milàn Czerny
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
On August 24th, Ukraine celebrated the 30th anniversary of its independence. This offered a window of opportunity for the country’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to mobilise the population domestically around patriotic rhetoric and, internationally, to engage in diplomatic initiatives. However, on both fronts, the Ukrainian leader faces important challenges: mounting Covid-19 cases, intensification of Russian pressure, and Western states’ refusal to meet Kyiv’s expectations. The EU-Ukrainian summit planned on October 12th 2021 represents the occasion for both sides to reflect on these difficulties and for the EU to clarify its position vis-à-vis its eastern neighbour.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, European Union, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

3217. EU Space policy: an underestimated success

Author:
Massimiliano Salini
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
When we talk about EU integration and successful EU policies, we are usually referring to Erasmus, the CAP, and the Single Market. Indeed, we refer too little to the EU Space policy, which is the only one that enjoys a truly European infrastructure[1]. It was in 2009, with the Treaty of Lisbon, that the space policy became one that is European since it is shared between Member States. Article 189 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU) states: "To promote scientific and technical progress, industrial competitiveness and the implementation of its policies, the Union shall draw up a European space policy.” Since then, the EU flagship programmes, Galileo and Copernicus, have been launched, representing a true European success. 2021 will mark the anniversary of the adoption of the first comprehensive European Space Programme, a regulation to which I have dedicated the last three and a half years as Rapporteur for the European Parliament. However, despite the success of the European space policy, this sector, which counts for almost 10% of the EU’s GDP, is still unknown to many European citizens. An example that effectively explains this lack of knowledge is represented by the satellite navigation system, Galileo. Despite it being the most accurate navigation system in the world, used today by one billion devices at global level, most European citizens do not even know of its existence, using the name of its American competitor when they refer to it. This lack of knowledge is clearly to blame on a lack of communication on the part of the EU’s institutions, as is the case for many other European success stories, but this is not the only explanation. In the following text, I will try to explain the complexity of the space policy, but also the potential behind this underestimated success.
Topic:
Governance, European Union, Regional Integration, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe

3218. Energy price hikes: which European solutions?

Author:
Ramona Bloj
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
As energy prices rise around the world, against the backdrop of the post-Covid economic recovery, the 27 EU leaders discussed what Europe could do to ease the pressure on consumers at the European Council on 21-22 October. The increase in prices is due to a particular international context and is affecting all countries: China is facing electricity shortages in many provinces due to insufficient coal supply, and in the United States the price of natural gas has risen by more than 150% since the beginning of the year. However, this increase raises questions about Europe's energy strategy and its impact on climate objectives, just a few days before the opening of COP26 in Glasgow.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

3219. The Biden transition

Author:
Simon Serfaty
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
During the grotesque years of the Trump administration, and after its extraordinarily contested departure, the admittedly romantic idea of the United States has turned into a thing of the past—no longer the do-good democracy it used to be, but now a country unpredictably reactive rather than preventive, vindictive rather than proactive, and exclusive rather than inclusive. In June 2020, the nation’s pride reached a 20-year low, with only 42 percent of the respondents “extremely proud” to be American, down from 69 percent in 2003. And according to a Wall Street Journal poll, four Americans in five found the country “out of control.” By year’s end, aberrant talk that military force might be used, and martial law imposed, for a targeted “rerun” of the election was historically unreal but left many afraid about the future of the nation. When votes which have been counted no longer count, integrity is dismissed, character no longer matters, alternative facts are deemed real, and feeling right takes precedence over being right, then there is nothing left to hold on to. As Bertolt Brecht sarcastically suggested in 1953—time “to dissolve the people and elect another.” Throughout, the world has watched in dismay. For much of the previous century, America was the country much of the world came to rely on for its promises, a country that not only counted but one that could be counted on decisively. But now, the trust is gone: wrote former Secretary of State George Shultz on his one hundredth birthday, “a belief that what [our] nation … commits to do will, in fact be done” and what it “says will happen is, in fact, capable of being done.” A September 2020 survey by the Pew Research Center in 13 nations, all wealthy democracies, showed America’s reputation and over all confidence in its president in steady decline, often at their lowest points since these surveys began twenty years before—with more confidence in Xi Jinping (19 per cent) and Putin (23 per cent) than in Trump (16 percent). Such findings have been repeated since—en pire.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
United States of America

3220. Europe as a power, European sovereignty and strategic autonomy: a debate that is moving towards an assertive Europe

Author:
Reni Lefebvre
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
By defending a “geopolitical” Commission, The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that the European Union had emerged from its economic and technocratic origins, that it was now ready to assume and strengthen its power, to measure itself against the new global balance of power. In this sense, she was responding to French President Emmanuel Macron who, since 2017, has been theorising about "European sovereignty" and advocating this call for power[1].
Topic:
Sovereignty, European Union, Geopolitics, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
Europe