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3211. PP67: COVID-19 in Africa - Vulnerabilities and Assets for an Effective Response

Author:
Robert Mattes, Carolyn Logan, E. Gyimah-Boadi, and George Ellison
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Not only did the COVID-19 disease arrive on Africa’s shores (and at its airports) later than in Asia, Europe, and North America (Loembé et al., 2020), but for months the numbers of infections and deaths also appeared to remain relatively low. As of early August, the continent had experienced more than 1 million confirmed cases and 23,000 deaths (Africa CDC, 2020), though these figures were increasing rapidly. At this point, the causes behind Africa’s comparatively low initial numbers are not completely clear. One reason may be that early and decisive responses on the part of many African governments prevented the virus from gaining an easy foothold (Beech, Rubin, Kurmanaev, & MacLean, 2020; Hirsch, 2020; Levinson, 2020; Moore, 2020; Loembé et al., 2020). Indeed, according to the International Center for Not-for-Profit Law (2020), 46 African countries took some form of official action – in the form of new legislation or executive orders and decrees – restricting or banning travel and public gatherings, enforcing quarantines, or in some cases imposing full “lockdowns.” But Africa, somewhat paradoxically, may also have benefited from a range of structural factors, such as the continent’s relatively limited international exposure, its relatively low rates of intra- and inter-state air travel (Marbot, 2020), a generally hot and humid climate, relatively lower levels of population density and urbanization (De Waal, 2020; Marbot, 2020), and its substantially younger populations (Binding, 2020). It may have also profited from cultural factors, such as the fact that older people tend to remain with their families, rather than being institutionalized in retirement homes (Marbot, 2020), though this also has consequences for residential density, or that it has a more collectivist, less individualistic culture, which, according to recent research, may make COVID-19 interventions more effective (Frey, Presidente, & Chen, 2020). Yet most public health experts remain wary, and still expect significant further transmission of the virus across the continent, requiring drastic public health responses and interventions, especially where governments eased initial restrictions and lockdowns. Indeed, some officials have expressed concerns that Africa’s low numbers merely reflect very low rates of testing (Sly, 2020) and even, in some countries such as Tanzania, deliberate under-reporting (BBC, 2020). Some press reports have described instances where local reports of death rates bear little relation to official data (MacLean, 2020; York, 2020). These concerns appear well-founded given that community transmission is now present in all African countries and the number of infections increased by 50%, and deaths by 22%, in the last two weeks of July (World Health Organization, 2020). And officials at the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention have warned that Africa could well become the next epicenter of the pandemic (Loembé et al., 2020). If, as these events suggest, early interventions in African countries successfully erected a wall that kept the virus at bay, albeit temporarily, how well prepared are these countries if and when the virus penetrates their initial defenses? A wealth of Afrobarometer survey data suggests that Africans are especially vulnerable, in part due to lack of access to clean water and adequate health care (Gyimah-Boadi & Logan, 2020a; Logan, Howard, & Gyimah-Boadi, 2020). In this paper, we attempt to take the issue of vulnerability a step further by developing a more fine-grained approach, using insights from public health to examine different dimensions and components of vulnerability (Morrell, 2018). Specifically, we develop three inter-connected indices intended to capture the extent to which Africans might 1) run a heightened “risk of exposure to infection,” 2) face a heightened “susceptibility to illness” (once infected), and 3) face a “lack of resilience” (to recover once they become ill). In addition, a fourth index of “lockdown readiness” estimates the proportion of people who are more (or less) likely to be able to withstand the most severe forms of government health interventions, i.e. lockdowns or “shelter in place” orders, We then demonstrate how cross-country variations in the extent of exposure and susceptibility, and in the degree to which people are prepared for a lockdown, might help us better understand policy choices that African governments have made, and the extent to which these interventions were able to achieve desired reductions in mobility and contact. Finally, we briefly explore some of the soft assets that governments can bring to the table, such as legitimacy and trust, that may help increase compliance with restrictions on mobility, especially in countries we have identified as least able to tolerate lockdowns.
Topic:
Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa

3212. Africa’s Digital Divide and the Promise of E-learning

Author:
Matthias Krönke
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
According to UNESCO (2020), approximately 1.2 billion students and youth worldwide are affected by school and university closures because of the COVID-19 pandemic. To adjust to these new circumstances, governments must develop innovative solutions to ensure inclusive learning opportunities during this period of unprecedented educational disruption. This is especially true in African countries, where despite recent progress traditional education has faced infrastructural challenges and struggled to develop the human resources necessary to address students’ educational needs (Krönke & Olan’g, 2020; United Nations, 2019; UNESCO Institute of Statistics, 2016. This policy paper uses Afrobarometer survey data to look at digital infrastructure, the availability of digital devices at the household level, and digital literacy among African adults. While rates of digital literacy among children are likely to differ, it is important to understand these dynamics among adults for at least two reasons. First, adults are likely to shape children’s access to and experience with technology. Second, understanding current levels of access to devices and levels of digital literacy among adults provides a baseline against which future assessments can measure progress over time. Survey findings from Afrobarometer Round 7 (2016/2018) show a substantial digital divide both across and within countries, reflected in uneven access to resources such as electricity and unequal access to and use of smartphones and computers. The results suggest that government efforts to redress widespread inequalities need to be increased drastically to avoid the widening of an education gap among their citizens. The paper also discusses the potential benefits of providing smartphones and computers to those who currently do not have access to such devices.
Topic:
Education, Infrastructure, Inequality, Digital Economy, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
Africa

3213. Democratic Dividend: The Road to Quality Education in Africa

Author:
Matthias Krönke
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Education is a powerful tool to fight poverty, enable upward socioeconomic mobility, and empower people to live healthier lives. But while the global adult literacy rate continues to increase, from 81% in 2000 to 86% in 2018 (World Bank, 2019), the challenge of access to quality education remains particularly severe in Africa. Even before the COVID-19 crisis, globally one out of five children aged 6-17 years were not in school; more than half of these children live in sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, many African pupils attend schools that are inadequately equipped, creating a difficult learning environment. For example, more than half of the schools in sub-Saharan Africa do not have access to basic drinking water, handwashing facilities, the Internet, or computers (United Nations, 2019). COVID-19 may exacerbate these challenges as pupils lose school time, unequal access to online learning heightens inequalities, and health care and social-safety costs and economic losses put pressure on limited resources. Africans are aware of education challenges. Across 34 African countries surveyed by Afrobarometer between late 2016 and late 2018, one in five respondents (21%) cited education as one of the most important problems their governments should address, placing it among citizens’ top five priorities (Coulibaly, Silwé, & Logan, 2018). Not surprisingly, younger people placed substantially greater emphasis on education than their elders. At a global level, the United Nations (UN) has highlighted the importance of quality education by including it in its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). SDG 4 calls for governments to “ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all.” To this end, the UN outlines specific targets to be achieved by 2030, including ensuring that “all youth and a substantial proportion of adults, both men and women, achieve literacy and numeracy.” An important step toward this goal is that by 2030, all girls and boys should be able to “complete free, equitable and quality primary and secondary education” (United Nations, 2019). Many African governments have made important commitments to universal education. Of the 34 countries surveyed by Afrobarometer in 2016/2018, 33 have made school attendance compulsory (for periods ranging from five to 11 years), and 33 provide free primary education. (See Appendix Table A.2 for details.) Many governments also commit substantial portions of their yearly budgets to improving education. For example, in Côte d’Ivoire, eSwatini, Ghana, Malawi, Senegal, Tunisia, and Zimbabwe, more than 25% of total government expenditures go to education (World Bank, 2020). Afrobarometer surveys point to slow but steady progress as fewer Africans go without formal education and more attend school beyond the primary grades. But in some countries, two-thirds of adults still have no formal schooling, and significant gender gaps continue to disadvantage girls and women. Overall, just a slim majority of Africans think their government is doing a good job on meeting educational needs. Factors that contribute to these evaluations include whether citizens find it easy to obtain school services and whether they think schools are transparent about their budgets and responsive to reports of teacher misconduct. More fundamentally, our analysis finds that more democratic countries are seen as better able to provide public education. Citizens are more likely to be satisfied with government performance on education if immediate avenues of transparency and accountability at the school level are embedded in a broader political system that encourages these qualities.
Topic:
Education, Poverty, Democracy, and Inequality
Political Geography:
Africa

3214. Lived Poverty on the Rise: Decade of Living-Standard Gains Ends in Africa

Author:
Robert Mattes
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Economic destitution – whether measured as the frequency with which people go without basic necessities or as the proportion of people who live on less than $1.90 a day – declined steadily in Africa between 2005 and 2015. However, the findings of Afrobarometer Round 7 surveys, conducted in 34 African countries between late 2016 and late 2018, demonstrate that improvements in living standards have come to a halt and “lived poverty” is once again on the rise. To prevent squandering hard-won gains in Africans’ living standards, the data point to the necessity of a renewed commitment by citizens, governments, and international donors to defending democracy and expanding service-delivery infrastructure. Key findings Between 2005 and 2015, Afrobarometer surveys tracked a steady improvement in the living conditions of the average African. Measured as the frequency with which people go without a basket of basic necessities (food, clean water, health care, heating fuel, and cash income), “lived poverty” dropped in a sustained fashion over this period – a trend matched by consumption-based estimates of poverty by the World Bank. The most recent Afrobarometer surveys, however, suggest that Africa is in danger of squandering these gains in living standards. While the citizens of most African countries are still doing better than they were in 2005/2006, deprivation of basic necessities – captured by our Lived Poverty Index – has increased in about half of surveyed countries since 2015. The trend is similar for “severe lived poverty,” the extent to which people experience frequent shortages of basic necessities. Lived poverty varies widely across the continent. At one extreme, people rarely experience deprivation in Mauritius. At the other, the average person went without several basic necessities several times in the preceding year in Guinea and Gabon. In general, lived poverty is highest in Central and West Africa, and lowest in North Africa. Lived poverty also varies widely within societies. Reflecting the legacies of the “urban bias” of successive post-independence governments, rural residents continue to endure lived poverty far more frequently than those who live in suburbs and cities. A multilevel, multivariate regression analysis of more than 40,000 respondents across Africa reveals that people who live in urban areas, those who have higher levels of education, and those who have a job (especially in a middle-class occupation) are less likely to live in poverty, as are younger people and men. But besides personal characteristics, we locate even more important factors at the level of government and the state. First, Africans who live in countries with longer experiences of democratic government are less likely to live in poverty. Second, people who live in communities where the state has installed key development infrastructure such as paved roads, electricity grids, and piped-water systems are less likely to go without basic necessities. Indeed, the combined efforts of African governments and international donors in building development infrastructure, especially in rural areas, appears to have played a major role in bringing down levels of poverty – at least until recently.
Topic:
Poverty, Infrastructure, Inequality, and Local
Political Geography:
Africa

3215. Assessing Protection Claims at Airports: Developing procedures to meet international and domestic obligations

Author:
Regina Jefferies, Daniel Ghezelbash, and Asher Hirsch
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Andrew & Renata Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law at UNSW Sydney
Abstract:
The policy for assessing claims for refugee and complementary protection at Australian airports needs to be reformed to ensure that those in need of protection are identified and not returned to harm. The current procedures, called ‘entry screening’, set out a streamlined process for assessing refugee and complementary protection claims with no access to review. This Policy Brief argues that they prioritise visa cancellations, mandatory detention and removal over protection needs.3 This Policy Brief finds that Australia’s entry screening process and treatment of travellers who seek protection at Australian airports raise significant questions regarding fairness, transparency, efficiency and compatibility with the international and domestic legal frameworks of humanitarian protection. This Policy Brief critically analyses the legal and operational framework for handling protection claims made by people at Australian airports in light of Australia’s international protection obligations. It also examines the domestic legal framework which is claimed to provide the basis for airport screening procedures and through which Australia’s protection obligations are supposed to be given effect. This Policy Brief finds serious issues concerning transparency, legality and accountability, which require better Parliamentary intervention and oversight.
Topic:
Refugees, Mobility, Airports, and Protection
Political Geography:
Australia

3216. Climate Change, Disasters and Mobility: A Roadmap for Australian Action

Author:
Jane McAdam and Jonathan Pryke
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Andrew & Renata Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law at UNSW Sydney
Abstract:
Across the globe, the adverse impacts of disasters and climate change are prompting millions of people to move. Disasters now displace many more people within their countries each year than conflict, and the Asia-Pacific region is the hardest hit. Between 2008 and 2018, this region alone saw more than 80 per cent of all new disaster displacement. Australia cannot afford to ignore the fact that in its own region, internal and cross-border displacement within and from the Pacific Islands is likely to increase as disasters intensify and become more frequent, exacerbated by the impacts of climate change. While Australia cannot stop such displacement altogether, it can implement policy changes now that would help to reduce its scale and impact. Preventative measures, such as mitigation, adaptation and disaster risk reduction, along with proactive measures, such as enhanced mobility, could significantly reduce the risk of future displacement, and thereby also reduce economic, social and human costs and suffering. Most Pacific Islanders want to remain in their homes, and this should be enabled to the extent possible through disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and development policies. At the same time, there is widespread recognition that planning for mobility is necessary so that people can move before disaster strikes. Smart migration policies can provide people with choices to take control of their own lives, rather than being displaced when disasters occur. This report focuses on the role of mobility as a release valve for Pacific Islanders at risk of displacement in the context of disasters and climate change. It demonstrates why Australia should proactively develop laws and policies that enable people in the Pacific region to move out of harm’s way, thereby harnessing migration as a climate change adaptation strategy in its own right.
Topic:
Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Displacement, and Mobility
Political Geography:
Australia

3217. Infrastructures and Power in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Silvia Clombo and Eduard Soler I Lecha
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
Geopolitics is back. A more aggressive great power competition and the disruptive effects of new technologies have given new impetus to the analysis of the impact of geography on political decisions. Over the last decade, the Mediterranean and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region have experienced profound and far-reaching social, political and economic transformations that have contributed to unprecedented levels of volatility and uncertainty. Some of these shifts have reshaped many of the traditional features of the geopolitical order in place in the region for decades, while others might have the potential to do so in the near future. Increased competition among regional actors but also new stakes by emerging global powers are redefining the contours of regional geopolitics and the way in which this region relates to broader global trends. Infrastructures is one of the areas where the effects of those global and regional dynamics are more visible and this is why a good grasp of the geopolitics of infrastructures can help us understand the broader geopolitical shifts in the Middle East and North Africa better. This is the main goal of this Joint Policy Study that ultimately aims to fill a gap in the scholarly work on the Mediterranean and the MENA region by delving into issues of geopolitical competition, conflict and cooperation from the point of view of the use of strategic infrastructures. This exercise continues and complements other collective endeavours, namely the MENARA project, which have sought to make sense of the acceleration of changes in the region since 2011 and have analysed them as a continuation of pre-existing trends and as part of larger transformations at a global scale. The geopolitical relevance of infrastructures is nothing new, as evidenced by the centuries-old competition for control of some strategic passageways such as the Strait of Gibraltar, the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles, the Strait of Hormuz, the Straits of Tiran or the Suez Canal. While acknowledging some constant features, our analysis also takes into consideration the impact of new trends at the global and regional levels. Moreover, while the study of infrastructures has been a key feature in classical geopolitics, there are aspects often associated with critical geopolitics – the geopolitics of cooperation and the relevance of actors other than states such as transnational corporations, cities or civil society groups to provide a few examples that stand at the core of our analytical approach to the topic.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

3218. Gone Without a Trace: Syria’s Detained, Abducted, and Forcibly Disappeared

Author:
Hanny Megally and Elena Naughton
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
In most cases, to be imprisoned in Syria is to disappear. Tens of thousands of people, if not more, have been unlawfully taken prisoner or held incommunicado in the context of the Syrian conflict. This policy paper examines the dark reality of detentions in Syria, its impact on those who are detained and their families, and recommends a set of urgent steps that should be taken to assist families in obtaining information about the whereabouts of their loved ones, gaining access to them, and achieving their prompt release. While most parties to the Syrian conflict are complicit in carrying out arbitrary and incommunicado detentions, including both state and non-state actors, the vast majority of detention-related violations since 2011 have been carried out by the Syrian state. The policy paper – a joint project of ICTJ and the Center on International Cooperation (CIC) at New York University – draws from a variety of sources, including the authoring organizations’ longstanding work on Syria and engagement with Syrian victims, as well as inputs from interviews and an expert roundtable in The Hague, Netherlands, in October 2019. The paper looks in depth at the main government security agencies responsible for arrests and detentions in Syria and shows how the regime weaponizes the law to criminalize political activity, to maintain absolute control over the Syrian population, and to justify arrests and detentions of peaceful demonstrators, political opponents, and human rights activists, all behind a facade of legality. It shows how, at every level, the system works in contravention of fundamental principles of human rights law designed to protect individuals from unlawful and arbitrary deprivation of liberty, including rights guaranteed in the international declarations and conventions to which Syria is a party. The paper provides additional information about nonstate actors who over the course of the conflict are known to have abducted and detained not only opposing armed forces, including Syrian army, but many civilians. From there, the paper goes on to examine the harsh realities facing families of those who have been detained, abducted, and forcibly disappeared in Syria and what must be done to begin addressing the rights of these victims, which have been so seriously violated. It looks at four primary areas of action that must be considered urgent for Syrians: (1) official acknowledgment of detentions and the disclosure of information about the whereabouts and fate of the forcibly disappeared and abducted; (2) detainee releases; (3) access to detention facilities by monitoring groups; and (4) addressing the consequences of enforced disappearance on families. The paper concludes with comprehensive recommendations for what can and should be done, now and in the future by the Syrian regime and other parties to the conflict, as well as the international community. On an urgent basis, it recommends among other things the immediate release of all those arbitrarily detained as well as vulnerable prisoners such as the sick, women, the elderly, children, and the disabled; unimpeded access by the International Committee of the Red Cross to all places of detention; and the sharing of lists specifying the status and location of detainees held by the Syrian government and other nonstate actors. In the long-term, it proposes creating among other things an independent mechanism for reviewing the remaining cases of detention, safe centers where families can request information about the fate of their loved ones, and rehabilitation programs where released individuals can access psychosocial and other vital services. These and other critical steps are a matter of extreme urgency, as the paper makes plain, if there is to be any possibility of lasting peace in Syria.
Topic:
Reform, Youth, Criminal Justice, Memory, Institutions, Justice, Engagement, Gender, and Truth and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

3219. Dead at the Root: Systemic Dysfunction and the Failure of Reform in Lebanon

Author:
Nour El Bejjani Noureddine and Anna Myriam Roccatello
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
Lebanon is in crisis and its people are tired of decades of endemic corruption, mismanagement, and impunity and of moving from one disaster to the next without making any progress on long-awaited reforms. They have been left with a local currency that is rapidly declining in value, thus eroding their savings and livelihoods. The massive explosion in the capital on August 4, 2020, was only the latest tragedy, the result of decades of systemic dysfunction that perpetuates injustice for victims of all types of human rights violations in Lebanon and inflicts enduring harms on Lebanese society. During the 15-year civil war (1975–1990), more than 150,000 people died, 300,000 were injured or disabled, more than one million were displaced, and more than 17,000 went missing. Although the 1990 Ta’if Agreement effectively ended the armed conflict, it failed to address the human rights abuses committed during the war, a shortcoming that has also meant a failure to uphold victims’ rights. Rather than curbing sectarianism, one of the root causes of the war, the agreement strengthened it by establishing a system of power sharing among the different warring factions along sectarian lines. Today, nearly half of Lebanon’s population is living below the poverty line, with limited services and high economic insecurity. Since the war, the elite class in Lebanon has consistently blamed the country’s dysfunction on others, including neighboring countries and the international community, which have interfered in different ways in the politics and finances of the country. That narrative is no longer sufficient. It is clear that the problems Lebanon is facing today have deep-rooted causes that were never addressed at the end of the war. People will continue to find themselves victims of a corrupt and unjust system until that system is uprooted entirely, and a new, more just, equal, inclusive, and nonsectarian structure is set up in its place.
Topic:
Corruption, Reform, Criminal Justice, and Truth and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

3220. Canada and the European Union: A New Transatlantic Alliance

Author:
Robert Hage
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
Jean Monnet’s early Canadian experiences are seen as the basis for his inspiration to unite Europe. Successive Canadian governments have tried to ensure lasting links with the European Union. Both sides have now achieved this against the background of President Trump’s rejection of multilateralism and the world-wide pandemic.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Alliance, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Canada, and North America