Number of results to display per page
Search Results
102. Aimless Rivalry: The Futility of US–China Competition in the Middle East
- Author:
- Jon Hoffman
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Fear in Washington over China’s expanding regional presence is quickly becoming a new rationale for an expansive US foreign policy in the Middle East. But China remains an opportunistic actor in the Middle East, driven by practical needs, not by aspirations to dominate the region. Beijing lacks the ability and desire to assume a dominant position in the Middle East, and its ability to jeopardize US regional interests is limited.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
103. Net assessments for Australia
- Author:
- Andrew Carr
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Established in 2023 in the Australian Department of Defence, net assessments will play an increasingly important role in shaping the future of the Australian Defence Force, disciplining long-term capability decisions to a series of key scenarios of concern. With Australia’s security requirements ranging across many more domains — and dependent on careful analysis of trends and networks beyond its shores — four additional Directorates of Net Assessment should be established, in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the Department of Home Affairs, Treasury, and the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. Net assessments will help Ministers better understand key strategic problems as well as potential conflict scenarios and outcomes, assisting them to make effective decisions to improve Australia’s competitive position and prepare the nation for any conflict in its region.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Training, and Assessment
- Political Geography:
- Australia
104. Somali Federal and State Interior Ministries: How to Enable Popular Participation in Transitional Justice
- Author:
- Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
- Abstract:
- After years of conflict and instability, Somalia is entering a period where transitional justice is possible. Three decades of experience in Africa shows that transitional justice processes are more likely to be effective if they are rooted in popular participation, particularly of victims/survivors and communities affected by violence. While the Somali government has not yet launched a truth commission, prosecutions, reparations or other formal mechanisms usually associated with dealing with the past, different types of measures have emerged in the country that are precursors to – or even themselves forms of – transitional justice. Drawing lessons from formal, state-led measures like the National Reconciliation Framework and non-formal, civil society-led measures like the Peace and Development Forum, this policy brief provides actionable guidance for the Ministry of Interior, Federal Affairs and Reconciliation and the Interior Ministries of federal member states on how to enable popular participation for a locally relevant and sustainable national transitional justice process.
- Topic:
- Government, Transitional Justice, Reconciliation, and Political Participation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somalia
105. The African Union and Member States: How to Mainstream Participation in Transitional Justice
- Author:
- Mary Izobo
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
- Abstract:
- The 2019 African Union Transitional Justice Policy (AUTJP) advances a unique transitional justice approach based on the principles of national and local ownership, African shared values, inclusiveness, equity and non-discrimination. These principles highlight the importance of popular participation and provide a framework for mainstreaming participation in a meaningful way. This policy brief outlines how the AUTJP provides for participation, explains the value of participation, and identifies key challenges, before providing actionable recommendations for the African Union and its member states on partnering with a wide range of stakeholders to enhance popular participation. By doing so, the AU and member states can ensure that transitional justice is a transformative tool for sustainable peace, reconciliation and good governance at the regional and national levels in Africa.
- Topic:
- Transitional Justice, African Union, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa
106. The Gambian Government and Political Participation in Post-TRRC Transitional Justice
- Author:
- Jasmina Brankovic, Simon Robins, Fatou Baldeh, and Lena Houma
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
- Abstract:
- The government of Gambia has committed to implementing the recommendations of the Truth, Reconciliation, and Reparations Commission (TRRC) through further transitional justice measures. Three decades of experience in Africa show that a transitional justice process as a whole is more likely to be effective if it is rooted in popular participation, particularly of victims/survivors and communities affected by violence. This policy brief is written for the Steering Committee leading the implementation process and for the Ministry of Justice and other government ministries and agencies supporting implementation efforts. The brief provides actionable guidance on how to ensure post-TRRC transitional justice measures – including reparations, justice and accountability, and institutional reforms – are inclusive and participatory. In line with the African Union Transitional Justice Policy, the brief emphasizes the value of both formal, state-run measures and non-formal, civil society-led measures, especially in combination. It is based on lessons from the TRRC's efforts to promote participation, as well as those of non-formal measures like the Listening Circles created by Women in Liberation and Leadership.
- Topic:
- Transitional Justice, Reconciliation, and Participation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Gambia
107. Breaking the Silence: The Fight Against Gender-Based Violence in Tanzania
- Author:
- Wilifrida S. John
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
- Abstract:
- This policy brief examines the ongoing issue of gender-based violence (GBV) in Tanzania, despite the country's ratification of comprehensive international, regional, and national legal frameworks. It explores how harmful cultural practices such as unyago, vigodoro, and chagulaga; alongside entrenched patriarchal norms and contradictions between statutory and customary laws, continue to undermine protections for women and girls. The brief argues that legal commitments alone are insufficient without effective enforcement, structural reform, public education, and stronger institutional accountability. It offers evidence-based recommendations to better align the legal system with cultural change, survivor-centred support services, and coordinated, cross-sector responses. By situating Tanzania's case within the wider Sub-Saharan African context, it illustrates how legal pluralism, and socio-cultural dynamics contribute to the persistence of GBV across the region.
- Topic:
- Education, Culture, Reform, Women, Gender Based Violence, and Girls
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Tanzania
108. Mapping India-Pakistan military power
- Author:
- Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan and Linus Cohen
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- Security competition between India and Pakistan, rooted in the territorial dispute over Kashmir, has persisted since the partition of British India in 1947. Since the 1990s, Pakistan’s support for insurgent and terrorist groups in Indian-administered Kashmir has posed a persistent challenge to Indian security. While both countries have maintained nuclear arsenals since the late 1980s, the threat of escalation has historically constrained India’s responses. However, India’s posture has shifted in recent years, with a growing willingness to conduct overt cross-border strikes and covert operations targeting terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan. This evolution has been marked by key incidents, including the 2016 Uri attack and India’s surgical strikes, the 2019 Pulwama bombing and Balakot air strike, and the April 2025 Pahalgam attack, which triggered a series of retaliatory strikes by both sides. India’s targeting of major Pakistani air bases in 2025 marked a significant escalation, raising concerns about strategic stability. China’s role further complicates the regional picture. As Pakistan’s close ally and India’s primary military rival, China’s growing involvement—through arms transfers and strategic coordination—has led Indian planners to seriously consider the possibility of a two-front war. This ASPI brief provides a overview of the current military balance between India and Pakistan, with a focus on quantitative comparisons of defence spending, conventional military capabilities, and strategic assets. India has consistently maintained a superior conventional military force, particularly in terms of major equipment categories, shaping the strategic calculus on both sides.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, National Security, Military Affairs, Strategic Competition, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Asia-Pacific
109. The Current State of Energy Security in Europe
- Author:
- Dan Ziebarth, Johannes Späth, and Cengiz Günay
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- This Policy Analysis examines the state of energy security in Europe. The concept of energy security has been commonly used to refer to the ability to securing uninterrupted access to energy and energy supplies at an affordable price (IEA, World Energy Outlook 2022). Energy security is essential for maintaining economic stability, political security, and social well-being. Although, the classic approach energy security is reducing dependencies through the diversification of energy sources and supplies, energy security also requires robust and resilient infrastructure, political and bureaucratic will, market conditions and cooperation. Building for energy security also entails the right assessment of the existing realities. Europe‘s energy security faces multiple threats and risks. This policy analysis identifies four major threat domains to energy security: (1) geopolitical coercion and cyberattacks; (2) infrastructural and systemic weaknesses; (3) resource scarcity and critical mineral dependency; and (4) political/regulatory fragmentation. The paper argues that over-reliance on diversification (e.g., of imports such as replacing Russian gas with Qatari LNG and diversifying the energy mix through an increase in renewable energy) won‘t be enough. The EU also needs to invest in innovative technologies and infrastructure. The blackout in Spain highlighted the vulnerability of grids to high levels of renewable energy without the necessary adaptations. European energy security requites inclusive and integrated resilience strategies with a whole-of-society approach, technological innovation and cooperation, investment in infrastructure, bureaucratic coordination, and political unity.
- Topic:
- Infrastructure, Renewable Energy, Resilience, and Energy Security
- Political Geography:
- Europe
110. Flawed by Design: What al-Sisi’s Egypt Reveals About the Myth of Authoritarian Efficiency
- Author:
- Johannes Späth
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- This policy analysis challenges the rising narrative that authoritarian regimes, despite their repressive nature, offer superior governance efficiency and contribute to regional stability. Using Egypt under President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi as a case study, it argues that the perception of authoritarian efficiency is not only analytically flawed but dangerously misleading for international policymakers. European and Western engagement with Egypt continues to rely on flawed assumptions about authoritarian capacity and stability. Financial support, arms sales, and diplomatic legitimacy are extended largely unconditionally, under the illusion that al-Sisi’s regime can deliver long-term order. This approach ignores the structural fragility baked into Egypt’s political economy, and risks enabling a trajectory toward fiscal implosion and social unrest. The paper argues for a strategic recalibration. European policymakers should shift from regime-centered engagement to resilience-centered investment, focusing on areas like education, climate adaptation, and local economic empowerment that outlast regime cycles. Europe’s current approach risks buying short-term quiet at the cost of long-term instability. A policy recalibration grounded in realism, not regime accommodation, is both necessary and overdue.
- Topic:
- Political Economy, Bilateral Relations, Authoritarianism, European Union, Regime Security, Regional Stability, and Regime Legitimation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, and Egypt
111. NATO is safe, but for how long? What needs to be taken from the Hague Summit
- Author:
- Sophie Draeger and Loïc Simonet
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- The Hague NATO Summit was a success – on the paper. Mark Rutte’s first test as Secretary-General may have avoided the chaos of Trump’s first term, but the outcome reveals deep contradictions in the Alliance. The agreed 5% defence spending target is historic and the final communiqué strikingly short, yet these moves mask rather than resolve NATO’s structural vulnerability. Trump’s transactional view of Article 5 remains the Alliance’s Damocles sword, as America’s long-term commitment to Europe remains in question. The EU, meanwhile, is facing a strategic and identity crossroads. While Trump’s pressure spurs long-overdue momentum toward a stronger European defence posture, it also risks accelerating Europe’s militarization at the expense of its founding peace project. The 'phoney transatlantic bargain' – Europe promises to spend, Trump promises to stay – may hold for now, but cannot guarantee NATO’s credibility in the long run. Amid economic risks and political fragmentation, the EU must act fast to assert its own roadmap, including tying EU funds to defence efforts and planning for U.S. retrenchment. Without this, Europe may find itself simultaneously more militarized and more vulnerable.
- Topic:
- NATO, European Union, Alliance, and Transatlantic Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
112. The ‘geopolitical’ European Union and the new Transatlantic relation 100 days after Donald Trump’s inauguration: How to navigate the storm?
- Author:
- Loïc Simonet
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- Donald Trump’s second administration is a test for the “geopolitical” EU. It comes at a time of morosity and decline in Europe, both in terms of hard and soft power, and reveals EU’s major structural deficiencies and dependencies. In Ukraine, “Europe’s era is over”, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev cynically assessed. At the same time, Donald Trump’s contemptuous foreign policy plays an accelerating role for the EU’s long-awaited strategic autonomy. The narrative is rapidly changing and the Commission’s first initiatives are promising, but the EU needs not only competitiveness but also political ambition. New ‘coalitions of the willing’ are emerging in Europe across old borders such as Brexit-related divisions or rivalries between the EU and NATO, reviving the concept of ‘concentric circles’. They might provide Europe with much needed impulse, but also enhance divisions and internal quarrels, which is in Trump’s strategy. Trump.2 also accelerates the ‘de-Westernisation’ of the world and leaves Europe alone versus ‘the Rest’. With EU’s more assertive stance and strategic quantum leap, it might also question and jeopardize Europe’s original peace project.
- Topic:
- European Union, Geopolitics, Transatlantic Relations, Donald Trump, and Inauguration
- Political Geography:
- Europe and United States of America
113. Brave New World – The Future of China-US relations
- Author:
- Thomas Eder
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- The US’s diminished leverage and Beijing’s reticence to engage an erratic US president mean that a new trade deal will likely take longer than in Donald Trump’s first administration, if it materializes at all. Prolonged trade tensions are unlikely to spiral into a security crisis in the Pacific. Both sides have economic priorities, US allies and partners lose trust in Washington, and Beijing will be loath to upset a trend towards a more accommodating region. The US-China trade and technology war will challenge the EU and its member states more than before but also provide Europe with leverage as the US and China gradually lose their economic partnership.
- Topic:
- Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
114. Navigating neutrality: How to find the best match between NATO and its four remaining neutral Western European Partners (WEP4)?
- Author:
- Loïc Simonet
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- “Is small still beautiful?” (Gebhard, 2013). Is NATO still interested in the remaining four neutral countries in Europe (Austria, Ireland, Malta and Switzerland)? Can these WEP4 benefit from the Alliance’s ‘return to Europe’ in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine? On the opposite, might the Alliance’s ‘war’ approach, with high focus on defence and deterrence, risk marginalizing them and evidencing “the limits of partnership for deterrence” (Aronsson & Swaney, 2022, 5)? Using the opportunity of the current geopolitical crisis as well as rapidly shifting alliance constellations, this paper aims to assess the current partnership between NATO and the WEP4 and to provide with a framework for its redefinition in light of the new security context in Europe. While keeping Trump.2 ‘after-shock’, the current turmoil of the new Transatlantic relation as well as NATO’s existential crisis on the way to its summit in The Hague in June 2025, as a background, this paper tries to isolate the question of the WEP4 from the ‘elephant in the room’ and to address it as a per se challenge.
- Topic:
- NATO, Deterrence, Transatlantic Relations, and Neutrality
- Political Geography:
- Europe
115. From Belgrade to Tbilisi: How the EU Views Civil Protests
- Author:
- Ljiljana Kolarski
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- From Belgrade to Tbilisi: How the EU Views Civil Protests The European Union (EU) has long positioned itself as a promoter of democratic values, human rights, and media freedom. However, its stance on opposition protests in different countries is often influenced by a complex interplay of geopolitical considerations and pragmatic interests. This paper examines the EU’s contrasting reactions to anti-government protests in Serbia and Georgia in 2024, emphasizing how these responses are shaped by the political alignments of the respective governments. On the one hand, the EU has brought a strong support to opposition in Georgia, whose government maintains close ties with its northern neighbor, Russia. On the other hand, Brussels has failed to actively support opposition groups in Serbia, which has visibly distanced itself from Moscow since the war began without moving towards greater democratization.
- Topic:
- European Union, Democracy, Protests, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Serbia, and Georgia
116. Bro-Politics in Action: Trump and the “Personalization” of Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Ádám Csobánci
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- Congratulations poured in from European heads of state and government as soon as it became clear that Donald Trump was turning U.S. battleground states red and winning the presidential election last November. Many presidents and prime ministers posted selfies and pictures with Trump, emphasizing their strong personal relationship and shared history. While congratulations to the new President might seem like standard diplomatic courtesy, the enthusiasm for the upcoming Trump 2.0 administration from Paris, Berlin, and Brussels appears less than sincere, given their rather complicated relationships with the first Trump administration. In contrast, leaders like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who described Trump’s victory as "the biggest comeback in Western political history" and forecasted a golden era in US-Hungarian relations, expressed a strong eagerness to collaborate on shared goals. Similarly, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni praised the "unshakable alliance" between Italy and the U.S., demonstrating clear support for Trump’s win. Recognizing the heightened importance of personal relationships in dealing with Trump and his administration, European leaders are hoping to establish strong personal ties with the President. This trend report predicts how in 2025 further “personalization” of foreign policy is to be expected from the next U.S. administration. I present, through the examples of Orbán and Meloni, that European leaders already possessing close ties with the next U.S. president or his inner circle might have a significant head start to influence Trump’s Europe policy, with far-reaching consequences. Europeans who were not in power during Trump’s first term are pressed for time because the start of his new presidency is expected to bring rapid and aggressive policy changes. With the Republican Party controlling all branches of government, Trump’s administration will likely prioritize advancing its agenda swiftly, particularly before the midterm elections in 2026, when Congressional support could wane. For European leaders who are new to office or lacked strong ties with Trump previously, this creates urgency. They have strong incentives to build closer relations with his administration, whether due to shared ideologies or fears of trade tariffs; however, they face a glaring challenge. They will have to compete for Trump’s very limited time, attention and interest, as European affairs are unlikely to be a top priority for the new administration.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Personalization
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
117. Bridging divides: Saudi Arabia’s Quest for Strategic Autonomy
- Author:
- Yuki Adachi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic approach after the Gaza outbreak in 2023 reveals its emerging role as a stabilizing force in the Middle East. By balancing regional interests and maintaining its strategic independence, Riyadh is steering away from traditional reliance on Western allies, particularly the U.S., to pursue a more autonomous and multipolar foreign policy. Since his rise to power in the mid-2010s, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has prioritized regional stability as a cornerstone of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 economic transformation. This strategy reflects Riyadh’s intent to diversify its oil-dependent economy, attract foreign investment, and enhance its geopolitical influence (Borck, 2025). Traditionally, Saudi Arabia has relied on its alliance with Western powers, particularly the United States, which has provided security assurances in exchange for privileged access to the Kingdom’s abundant oil resources (Adil, 2024). However, under MBS, Saudi Arabia began to engage more openly with regional rivals and non-Western powers, signaling a move towards greater autonomy in its foreign policy. In 2023, Saudi Arabia achieved a historic rapprochement with Iran through China’s mediation, showcasing its pragmatic willingness to engage non-Western actors to stabilize the region. Simultaneously, normalization talks with Israel brokered by the U.S. signaled Riyadh’s strategic intent to recalibrate regional power dynamics. However, the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel disrupted this trajectory, reigniting Israeli and Arab world tensions. Undeterred, Saudi Arabia continued its dialogue with Israel for normalization while distancing itself from overt U.S. security arrangements, underscoring its strategic independence. More recently, Riyadh abandoned its pursuit of a bilateral defense treaty with the U.S., due to the Israeli normalization stalemate (Nakhoul & Magid, 2024). This is because the bilateral defense treaty with the U.S. would require formal recognition of Israel (Nakhoul & Magid, 2024). As Saudi Arabia carves out its role as a credible mediator, its pragmatic and balanced diplomacy could redefine regional power structures in 2025.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Strategic Autonomy, Regional Politics, and Muhammad bin Salman (MBS)
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Saudi Arabia
118. The Rise and Growing Coordination of The Global South
- Author:
- Veronika Nechaeva
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- The phrase “Global South” is increasingly employed in the information space, which introduces certain modifications to the traditional understanding of the “East-West” division model of the world. While concerns about the global order and the role of the Global South have been debated for decades, China’s assertive ambitions and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have sparked renewed discussions about the Global South’s geopolitical significance. Some experts even note that it is the representatives of the Global South, as the owners of the “golden share”, who may ultimately decide the fate of the further arrangement of international relations. The term “Global South” was coined to the general public in 1969 by the American political activist Carl Oglesby. It refers to regions of the world often characterized by lower levels of economic development, historical colonial influence, and geographic location predominantly in the Southern Hemisphere. Countries in the Global South are frequently associated with socio-economic challenges such as income inequality, limited industrialization, and weaker political influence in global governance structures. Traditionally, the ‘old’ narratives surrounding the Global South focused on these characteristics, framing these nations primarily as recipients of aid or as dependent economies within a Western-dominated world order. However, the term now carries an ideological component, reflecting new narratives that emphasize the agency, resilience, and aspirations of these nations in shaping the global geopolitical landscape.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Global South, International Order, Coordination, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Global South
119. The End of an Era: The Decline of Neoliberalism and the Emerging Interregnum
- Author:
- Johannes Späth
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- The era of neoliberal and unconditional globalization, once heralded as the ultimate phase of human history, is in slow but likely irreversible decline. The frameworks and assumptions that underpinned global integration for decades are eroding, leaving behind a fragmented landscape and an uncertain future. Periods of upheaval like this compel us to reconsider the structures that shape our lives. Central to these is the notion of political order. Historian Gary Gerstle, in the U.S. context, defines it as a set of dominant political ideas broadly shared across partisan lines. These ideas persist over significant periods of time and can only be challenged to a certain degree. Contrarian views may simultaneously still exist but remain on the fringes, unable to disrupt the mainstream consensus upheld by the political order. Historically, political orders collapse when crises expose their inability to adapt and adequately respond. These moments of systemic failure pave the way for new paradigms. The stagflation crisis of the 1970s—marked by high inflation and unemployment—marked the end of the New Deal order and its Keynesian economics. In its place emerged a once-radical fringe idea: neoliberalism, soon to become the new dominant order. The "neo" in neoliberalism can be confusing, as this set of ideas is closely aligned with classical liberalism (e.g., Adam Smith’s focus on free markets and limited government). It was labelled "neoliberalism" to distinguish its market-oriented approach from the interventionist liberalism of the mid-20th century, such as New Deal policies, which also identified as liberal.
- Topic:
- Globalization, History, Capitalism, Neoliberalism, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
120. The Politics of Misinformation: Social Media, Polarization, and the Geopolitical Landscape in 2025
- Author:
- Ceren Çetinkaya
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- According to the Global Web Index, as of October 2024, 64% of the global population actively uses social media; they spend an average of 2 hours and 19 minutes daily on such platforms. (Chaffey, 2024). This digital transformation has reshaped various domains in our lives, most notably the political sphere. Social media platforms, particularly X (formerly known as Twitter), TikTok, and Facebook have become central hubs for political discourse. Their democratizing potential enables grassroots movements and empowers individuals to communicate with large audiences, bypassing traditional gatekeepers. However, this empowerment has come with significant trade-offs, including the proliferation of disinformation and misinformation, and the reinforcement of ideological echo chambers which contribute to the polarization of society. The World Economic Forum’s 2025 Global Risks Report identifies misinformation as the most critical challenge to political cohesion and societal trust, particularly due to its ability to fracture democratic institutions, in the next two years. As we enter 2025, X has shown its potential to become a platform for political discourse, especially for populist far-right movements, and has been accused of propagating misinformation. Recently, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced that Meta would remove third-party fact-checkers in the US and replace them with a crowd-sourced moderating service like the “community notes” feature on the rival social media platform X, because “the fact-checkers are politically biased”. Given the previous effects of social media in conflicts such as Rohingya humanitarian crisis in 2018, the effect of changes in social media regulations and the big tech-politics axis remains uncertain in a year where the ongoing conflicts seem unlikely to end soon. This report examines the geopolitical implications of misinformation in 2025 and calls for greater global attention to the role of social media in conflict areas.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Social Media, Misinformation, and Polarization
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
121. France – U.S. Relationship under Trump 2.0: No Big Drama or Turbo-Charged Confrontation?
- Author:
- Loïc Simonet
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- In 2018, to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the end of the first World War, Emmanuel Macron, the French President, gifted Donald Trump with a young oak tree from Belleau Wood, where 1,800 American soldiers lost their lives during the first World War. The tree soon died. Macron insisted that no analogies to the Franco-American relationship should be drawn, stating, “It’s no big drama, the symbol was to plant it together.” (RFI, 2019). From Lafayette to Tocqueville, from General de Gaulle to Dominique de Villepin, France and the United States are linked by a long history that goes to the heart of their universalist values. But the relationship has not always been simple; rather “a rich drama with many chapters” (Lightfoot & Bel, 2020, 4). France’s dilemma in 2017 was: “Is Trump a revolutionary actor or a noisy status quo president?” (Lightfoot, 2018, 7). Seven years later, the answer remains uncertain. Unlike many EU members and NATO allies, France views Trump’s foreign policy with a certain détachement and regards it as ‘business as usual’—just as it already felt relatively comfortable with Trump’s America in 2017 (Zajac, 2018), On the morning of 6 November 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron was one of the first world leaders to congratulate the president-elect. The Washington Post’s columnist David Ignatius says he found a “surprising mood of acceptance” in Paris. Joe Biden’s presidency has certainly not been the ‘oasis’ of transatlantic harmony that many naively predicted, between the abrupt and uncoordinated U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the AUKUS humiliation and the Inflation Reduction Act. This might also explain why Benjamin Haddad, France’s Deputy Minister for European Affairs, pragmatically assessed: “We worked with the first Trump administration, and we will work with the second. (…) You have to be emotionally neutral about what’s out of your control” (quoted by Ignatius, 2024). To paraphrase a recent Policy Paper of the Notre Europe Foundation, for France, it is not about the Good (Democrats) or the Bad (Republicans), but just the Ugly (Bertolini & Fabry, 2024). Having said that, Trump’s foreign policy views could hardly be more at odds with France’s current 'global agenda', which emphasizes accelerated green transition, environmental protection initiatives, global finance regulation, and multilateral governance revitalization (Tenenbaum, 2024, 13). Most of these divergences are likely to be turbo-charged during Trump’s second mandate. An opinion poll on 7 November 2024 on “The French and the election of Donald Trump” showed that 62% of French people are worried, with only 12% satisfied. 8 out of 10 French people have a poor image of Donald Trump, including the voters of the far-right Rassemblement National (56%). In both domestic and foreign policy, 85% of French people expect Donald Trump to lead a policy of rupture. 48% of French people think that with the election of Donald Trump, relations between the United States and France will deteriorate, and 44% that they will not change. Only 7% expect relations between the two countries to improve (ELABE, 2024). France, which might well be considered the least ‘Atlanticist’ country in the transatlantic community, with its NATO-skeptic past and its aspiration to European strategic autonomy, has a vested interest in an understanding with Washington. What will it make out of Trump’s victory? A lot will depend on the relationship forged between the two presidents during Trump’s first mandate, since French and American leaders have a long history of using personal diplomacy to reach agreement on divisive issues.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Europe, France, North America, and United States of America
122. Chinese Foreign Policy in 2025: Absorbing Blows & Profiting from Others’ Mistakes
- Author:
- Thomas Eder
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- When it comes to Chinese foreign policy in 2025, decision-makers in Austria and the EU should prioritize three highly topical questions that are at the forefront for China researchers: Will China respond severely to US tariffs? Will China contribute to peace talks in the Russia-Ukraine War? Will China fill the vacuum as the US retreats from global governance leadership? Among other trends in China research, there will be further work on how China’s technological and industrial progress—including on electric vehicles, AI, and quantum computing—will impact relations with the US and EU (ReConnect China 2025). Moreover, there will be more research on how integrated the Chinese economy is with the EU and others, and how resilient Europe is in this context (China Horizons 2025). Lastly, among rising regional focal areas, scholars will publish more on China’s rise as a research, economic, and geopolitical actor in the polar regions (Funaiole et al 2024; Paul 2024).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, European Union, Tariffs, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Austria
123. The End of Françafrique: A Second Decolonisation Wave in Africa
- Author:
- Angela Meyer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- On 28 November 2024, Chad formally declared in a press communiqué to terminate the defence accord with France which had been in place since 1976. This announcement came only a couple of hours after the visit of French Minister of Foreign Affairs, Jean-Noël Barrot, to N’Djaména. On the same day, the Senegalese president Bassirou Diomaye Faye announced that France would close its military bases in Senegal, as their presence is incompatible with the country’s sovereignty. Both African countries were long regarded as being stable allies of France on the African continent and pillars of the elite-centred network of economic, political, and military influences that Paris has been maintaining with most of its former colonies. The end of military cooperation with Chad and Senegal is thus another bitter blow for French foreign policy. This is all the more so as it follows a prevailing trend in francophone West and Central Africa: the open rejection of the so-called Françafrique. Propelled by the emergence of a multipolar world order and harnessed by anticolonial narratives, we are witnessing a new era of African sovereigntism that is closing the chapter of postcolonial special relationship between France and Africa.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, History, and Decolonization
- Political Geography:
- Africa, France, and Sahel
124. A Possible Ceasefire in Ukraine in 2025: Is the OSCE on Board?
- Author:
- Loïc Simonet
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- “Where is the OSCE during Russia’s war on Ukraine?” asked Pál Dunay (Dunay, 2022). To be honest, not in the spotlight. However, changing political realities in 2025 might provide the Vienna organization with renewed legitimacy, fifty years after the signature of the Helsinki Accords that served as its groundwork. After more than 1,000 days of attrition war, several factors may bring the conflict in Eastern Europe to a turning point. Despite both parties’ recent military escalation, there seems to be no end in sight on the battlefield. Neither side has the resources to achieve a decisive victory, a situation that academics describe as “mutually hurting stalemates” (Slantchev & Goemans, 2025). Militarily, Russia appears to be on the ascendancy, but Putin’s goal of defeating the Ukrainian armed forces in open combat and occupying more Ukrainian territory is a “strategic impossibility” (Dickson & Holowinsky, 2024). It is doubtful that 2025, which marks the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazism, will coincide with a triumphal parade on Moscow’s Red Square. The resilience and morale shown by the Ukrainian armed forces deserve admiration and tribute, but Kyiv knows that it will not recover Crimea and the Donbas by force. After more than two years of grinding conflict, the weariness of its population is becoming evident. Because neither side can achieve its ultimate goals, new approaches to ending the Ukraine war are beginning to surface. Compared to only a few months ago, more actors are ready to look at alternative scenarios.
- Topic:
- Politics, Ceasefire, OSCE, Escalation, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
125. NATO in 2025 and Beyond: Success and Peril Go Hand in Hand
- Author:
- Emiliano Alessandri
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- Against the backdrop of an impressive string of achievements, including the recent enlargements to Finland and Sweden, NATO is poised to remain the dominant force in the post-Russian invasion European security landscape. Indeed, NATO’s self-styled description as “the most successful alliance in history” has never seemed more apt. (Stoltenberg, 2024). Yet questions and doubts about NATO’s future are to resurface in 2025, possibly forcefully so: how will the Alliance cope with the return of NATO skeptic Donald Trump to the White House? And will Europe be able to meaningfully step in to compensate for a less Atlantic-oriented America? As the rise of populist nationalism is a key factor behind both America’s returning temptation to go it alone (McConnell, Foreign Affairs, 2025) and the inclination of a growing number of European politicians to define strategic policy in narrow national terms, a crucial test for the coming years is to what extent a shared vision of Euro-Atlantic security is still possible – and what it would look like. The roles and agendas of both NATO and the European Union in the evolving political context remain open questions.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Nationalism, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Finland, and Sweden
126. The European Union and the Sahel: the day after
- Author:
- Angela Meyer, Loïc Simonet, and Johannes Späth
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- Geopolitics are changing fast in the Sahel. Over the past three years, the region, one of the most impoverished and imperilled of the world, has undergone a dramatic cycle of regime change and alliance shift, which has significantly challenged the strategy and engagement of the European Union (EU) and its member states in the region. Against the background of this severe crisis in EU-Africa relations and growing anti-Western sentiments, new international players are appearing or increasing their influence, such as the Russian Federation, China and Turkey. It is now urgent for the EU to acknowledge the new situation in the Sahel region and rethink its approach. If Europe wants to remain engaged in the region, it should forge a new path guided by day-after policies, with a view to rebuilding trust in the EU as a reliable partner. This Policy Analysis draws on the Panel Discussion held at the oiip on 28 November 2024 on the same topic, in cooperation with the Austrian Federal Ministry of Defence (bmlv). This piece dives into the drivers of the Sahel region’s geopolitical dynamics and critically investigates the shortcomings of the EU’s approach to the region. It concludes with actionable recommendations for recalibrating the EU’s Sahel policy to address past mistakes, prevent further damage, and adapt to the region’s evolving realities.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, European Union, Partnerships, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and Sahel
127. Cutting Through Narratives on Chinese Arctic Investments
- Author:
- Anders Christoffer Edstrøm, Guðbjörg Ríkey Th. Hauksdóttir, and P. Whitney Lackenbauer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- China’s overtures have been met with suspicion in the Arctic states, where some analysts and commentators read nefarious intent into Chinese actions and statements. China’s construction of critical infrastructure and investments in the strategically located and resource-rich Arctic have raised concerns about national security. This is particularly the case in the seven out of eight Arctic states (excluding Russia), all of whom are now members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). What is more, questions abound about the dual-use applicability of Chinese research activities in the region.1 The Arctic is a highly strategic location, and activities here are often framed in geopolitical terms. In an era of intensifying great power competition between the United States and China, this suspicion has generated several core narratives2 about China’s Arctic interests and its engagement with and in the region. Xi Jinping launched China’s Belt and Road Initiative3 (BRI) in 2013. The initiative envisages interconnectivity across the Eurasian continent, primarily from China to Europe. Since then, the project has expanded to other areas of the globe, including the Arctic region. The Arctic region was officially made a part of the Belt and Road Initiative via the Maritime Cooperation Vision statement (“一帶一路”建設海上合作設想).4 Later, China established the Polar Silk Road (冰上丝绸之路) in its 2018 Arctic Policy White Paper5 connecting Asia and Europe through the Arctic Ocean. In the 2018 White Paper, the State Council of the PRC refers to its country as a “Near-Arctic State,” a statement that has remained highly controversial. While the White Paper emphasizes the Chinese government’s commitment to peaceful cooperation in the region, as well as a desire to contribute to Arctic research, protection, and development in accordance with international law, it also articulates Beijing’s aim of increasing its participation and influence in Arctic governance. It further iterates Beijing’s responsibility for maintaining security and stability in the region as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. China became an observer to the Arctic Council in 2013; since then it has contributed to scientific knowledge through research stations and expeditions, invested in Arctic business and competence, engaged in infrastructure projects, traded with Arctic states, and participated in multilateral international agreements such as the Central Arctic Ocean Fisheries Agreement.6 Chinese Arctic ambitions and activities are contentious. Commentators in the seven Arctic states often frame Chinese investments in an adversarial way, describing Chinese activity in alarmist language in terms of scale, scope, and risk. Analysts have the tendency to mix proposed investments with actual investments. For example, some analysts estimate that Chinese investments in the Arctic top $90 billion7 and call this level of investment “unconstrained.”8 According to one mainstream narrative, China will use this “inflow of investments”9 to increase its influence among Arctic nations by means of debt-trap diplomacy.10 Our research finds that these numbers are highly exaggerated and often mobilized to support a narrative in which China is successfully “buying up” the Arctic region, but that these inflated numbers include unsuccessful investment projects and proposed projects that have not been implemented. To facilitate informed debate and decision-making, this policy paper attempts to outline, although not to summarize, the actual level and state of Chinese ownership in the Circumpolar Arctic. To help illustrate our findings, we present a map displaying geographical locations of investment interests (See Figure 1), containing two further information layers. The first information layer displays the type of known Chinese interests in the Arctic, and the second information layer indicates whether this interest materialized, is paused/in question, or has been cancelled. For further description of our mapping methodology, see Appendix A. We use the term “investment” generously in this brief, including traditional foreign direct investment (FDI) according to established definitions, but also other modes of Chinese economic engagements. We have relied on open-source material in various languages to support our analysis, including Russian, Chinese, English, Icelandic, Norwegian, Danish, and Swedish. For a detailed description of our methodology, see Appendix A. This inclusiveness means that the amount of investments appears larger than with a more restrictive definition of FDI.
- Topic:
- National Security, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Investment, and Critical Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- China and Arctic
128. The Rise of Agentic AI: Infrastructure, Autonomy, and America's Cyber Future
- Author:
- Yam Atir
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The rise of agentic artificial intelligence marks a critical inflection point in the digital landscape. Unlike generative AI models that passively produce content, agentic AI systems are autonomous, goal-driven entities capable of initiating actions, using external tools, collaborating with other agents, and completing complex, real-world tasks with minimal human oversight. These systems are no longer experimental. Platforms like OpenAI’s Operator, Microsoft’s Copilot Studio, and Google’s A2A protocol are already transforming enterprise workflows and are on the cusp of integration into healthcare, infrastructure, and defense. While agentic AI promises immense productivity gains, it introduces a dramatically expanded cybersecurity threat surface. These agents can execute transactions, access sensitive APIs, retain memory across sessions, and operate continuously in high-stakes environments. If compromised, they pose risks, not just to data, but also to physical infrastructure, public systems, and democratic oversight. Moreover, today’s agentic systems are being built atop proprietary architectures governed by a handful of private firms, with little public transparency or accountability. This policy brief argues that the United States must act urgently to shape the foundational rules, standards, and infrastructure of agentic AI. It recommends a strategic policy roadmap, anchored in cybersecurity, to ensure that these systems are safe, resilient, and aligned with democratic values. The Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), working with CISA, NIST, and other agencies, has a narrow window of opportunity to establish governance over this emerging layer of digital infrastructure before default norms are set by private actors or adversarial states. The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is uniquely positioned to lead the national response to agentic AI. As the primary body coordinating science and technology policy across federal agencies, OSTP holds the convening authority to align disparate stakeholders, ranging from NIST and CISA to DARPA, NSF, and federal procurement bodies. Its mandate includes setting cross-agency priorities, shaping national R&D strategy, and advising the President on emerging technologies. Given the systemic implications of agentic AI for cybersecurity, public infrastructure, and democratic oversight, OSTP is the only entity with both the strategic purview and policy leverage to orchestrate a whole-of-government approach before de facto standards are cemented by the private sector. Its leadership is ess
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, Autonomy, and Emerging Technology
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
129. Harvard Project Releases Second Discussion Brief on Climate-Change and Trade Policy
- Author:
- Valerie J. Karplus
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Valerie Karplus explores relationships between trade and climate-change policy, with a geographical focus on China, the United States, and Europe. She asks how, “[a]gainst a backdrop of escalating trade tensions and signs of softening climate ambition…we can make progress — or at least minimize backsliding” on climate action. She responds by citing the need for “safe spaces”: “…in trade: could certain key inputs to the green economy be potentially exempted from tariffs, without thwarting the ambitions of protectionist programs?” “…for the emergence and diffusion of decarbonized energy technologies” “…that support infrastructure and systems necessary for decarbonization.” Karplus concludes by “…offering a few ways these safe spaces might be established.”
- Topic:
- International Relations, Climate Change, Environment, Renewable Energy, Trade Policy, Energy, and Green Industry
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, and Asia-Pacific
130. Permafrost Thaw in Alaska: An Overlooked Climate-Health Crisis
- Author:
- Aruni Ranaweera and Tessa Varvares
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Rapid thawing of permafrost has accelerated a public health crisis in Alaska by disrupting access to clean water, sanitation resources, and basic health infrastructure. For example: Permafrost thaw-induced damage to hospitals, roads, and runways has disrupted the delivery of critical medical services and supplies. Destabilization of housing and water infrastructure has created hazardous living conditions for children and families. Thaw-induced disruptions to fishing, hunting, and subsistence practices have threatened food security and imposed barriers to practicing traditional cultures. As this concept note explains, these outcomes are not inevitable or irreversible. Rather, strategic investments by the U.S. federal government, Alaska state agencies, Tribal government, and other community-based entities can help to bolster financial and technical assistance programs and infrastructure that will better enable those affected by permafrost thaw to adapt and build resilience to public health disruptions.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Water, Infrastructure, Sanitation, Public Health, and Permafrost
- Political Geography:
- North America and Alaska
131. Stimulating Clean Hydrogen Demand: The Current Landscape
- Author:
- Rachel Mural, Matt Floyd, Sebastian Berns, and Ai Takahashi
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Hydrogen is expected to play an important role in the global energy transition as a chemical feedstock and fuel; when produced with renewable energy, hydrogen offers a means of decarbonizing hard-to-abate industrial processes and the heavy transportation sector.1 To support market growth, current hydrogen programs aim to expand clean2 (also called “green”) hydrogen production by providing substantial subsidies in the form of supply-side funding and tax incentives. In 2023, global public investments in clean hydrogen reached $308 billion, with the vast bulk of funding allocated to production-side support.3 While worldwide clean hydrogen production targets4 reached 27-35 megatons (Mt) in 2023, demand targets have stalled at just 14 Mt.5 This trend reflects regional asymmetries in production and demand uptake. Under current projections, demand for renewable hydrogen in Europe is expected to hit 8.5 Mt by 2030, far behind the region’s planned 20 Mt of supply.6 Similarly, although the passage of the United States’ (U.S.) Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022 spurred an explosion of announced clean hydrogen projects, project offtake has lagged behind policy ambition. Supply-side incentives alone are insufficient to build robust markets for clean hydrogen; therefore, stakeholders must investigate additional demand-side innovation policies to facilitate market growth and development. In the remainder of this brief, we summarize the hydrogen policy landscape in the United States and European Union (EU), concluding with an examination of the causes of demand-side stagnation in the clean hydrogen market.
- Topic:
- Environment, Science and Technology, Natural Resources, Regulation, Public Policy, and Hydrogen
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus, United States of America, and European Union
132. Harvard Project Releases Discussion Brief on Climate-change and Trade Policy
- Author:
- Michael A Mehling
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Michael Mehling explores relationships among industrial policy, trade, and efforts to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. Among his conclusions are that climate action is now tied to the rise of industrial policy; border carbon measures are seeing increased interest but are also controversial as tools of climate action; and, while trade and climate cooperation have evolved separately, they are increasingly intersecting.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Industrial Policy, Trade Policy, and Greenhouse Gas
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
133. China's Green Belt and Road
- Author:
- Yang Jiang
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- In the past 15 years, green industries have developed rapidly in China, and China has assumed a leading position in several global supply chains of renewable energy. Because the domestic solar, wind and biomass markets have become quite saturated, Chinese companies have intensified their search for overseas markets, and the Chinese government is strengthening its support for that pursuit under the Green Belt and Road Initiative. For the governments and businesses in the green industries in the West, the Green Belt and Road Initiative could result in more competition over market shares and geopolitical influence, but it also encompasses opportunities for cooperation. For developing countries, more competition and diversification between foreign partners can be an advantage, allowing them to negotiate with the development partners.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Environment, Natural Resources, Business, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
134. Decolonisation in the second space age
- Author:
- Trine Rosengren Pejstrup and Ian Klinke
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The corporate space race is rendering space increasingly 'congested, contested, and competitive'.1 Governments too are upgrading their space capabilities. In Denmark, the new Danish Space Strategy promises a doubling of investment to ensure a Danish space industry that is 'ready for battle'. However, concerns over the environmental and sociopolitical consequences of test launches, extensive satellite programmes and ambitions to establish bases on celestial bodies have sparked growing criticism of a 'colonisation of outer space'. This policy brief reveals a growing political rift over the question of space colonisation.
- Topic:
- Space, Decolonization, Investment, and Commercialization
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Denmark, and Space
135. Russian military thinking about the Baltic Sea and the Arctic
- Author:
- Flemming Splidsboel Hansen
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Russia is likely to continue its military build-up in both the Baltic Sea and the Arctic in the long-term perspective. Following the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, Russian military thinkers and planners are increasingly seeing the two theatres as contiguous areas.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Finland, Sweden, Arctic, and Baltic Sea
136. Baltic States’ synchronization with the continental grid
- Author:
- Veronika Slakaityte and Izabela Surwillo
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The disconnection of the Baltic States from the Russian electricity system and their synchronisation with the Continental European Network is a key technological and geopolitical milestone. But safeguarding energy infrastructure remains vital. Operating within a shared electricity grid across multiple countries improves reliability. This arrangement allows transmission system operators (TSOs) to share resources, maintain a steady flow of electricity and handle mismatches between supply and demand more efficiently, helping to lower overall costs and ultimately benefiting consumers. However, geopolitical tensions have turned the Russian electricity system into a strategic paradox: the Baltic States, NATO and EU members are connected to Russia’s electricity dispatch system – a perceived security threat – for grid stability.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Infrastructure, European Union, Geopolitics, Economy, Electricity, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Baltic States
137. Europe's migration block crumbles in Niger
- Author:
- Hans Lucht
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Frontex has warned that Russia could leverage migration and growing influence in Libya and the Sahel to put pressure on Europe. Based on fieldwork in Niger, this policy brief analyses the shifting political realities on the ground. Driving from the airport in Niamey to the city centre after the coup remains a familiar journey except for the new Russian flags at the roundabouts, alongside those of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso. Since the ousting of the democratically elected president, Mohammed Bazoum, in July 2023 Niger’s military rulers fronted by General Tchiani have thrown out the former colonial power France, turned their backs on Europe and the US, and formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) with the political and military backing of Russia. This new and challenging scenario in the Sahel has had a profound impact on several important European priorities in the region. These range from fighting militant jihadism, to great power rivalry with Russia, competition over rich African energy and natural resources, development assistance, and also reducing irregular migration to southern Europe.
- Topic:
- Migration, European Union, Borders, and FRONTEX
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, Libya, Sahel, and Niger
138. Europe's teenage jihadists
- Author:
- Dino Krause
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Islamic State (IS)-related terror plots in Western Europe increasingly involve individuals under the age of 18. Central to this trend is IS’s ability to disseminate propaganda online, effectively targeting younger audiences.
- Topic:
- Radicalization, Internet, Islamic State, Youth, Propaganda, and Jihad
- Political Geography:
- Europe
139. EU foreign policy in the next political cycle
- Author:
- Fabrizio Tassinari
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The ‘geopolitical’ Commission of the past five years is to be replaced by a ‘geoeconomic’ discourse in the next political cycle. To enact the hard strategic choices ahead for the next Commission the EU needs to refocus on the normative underpinnings, the instruments of tried-and-tested effectiveness, and on managing expectations. A ‘geophilosophy’ of Europe can be harnessed as a constitutive lens to understand and practice foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, European Union, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe
140. 8 old and new challenges for UN peacekeeping
- Author:
- Peter Albrecht and Corine van Emmerik
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Recent reviews and calls from the ‘Pact for the Future’ to reshape the UN peacekeeping framework, underscore an urgent need for innovation and dialogue to ensure peacekeeping’s continued relevance. While peacekeeping’s core principles of impartiality, consent, and limited use of force remain essential for fostering trust and legitimacy, rethinking is also needed to address unresolved challenges like asymmetric warfare, regionalized conflicts, and external geopolitical influences. Denmark’s seat on the United Nations Security Council for 2025–2026 presents a crucial opportunity to shape the future of peacekeeping, particularly as adapting conflict responses aligns closely with Denmark’s key thematic priorities for its tenure. We recommend eight ways to address both enduring and emerging challenges.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Peacekeeping, Innovation, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
141. Future-proofing peacekeeping
- Author:
- Peter Albrecht and Corine van Emmerik
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- As Denmark takes its seat on the Security Council amidst geopolitical tensions and global fragmentation, peacekeeping is confronting an identity crisis. This moment offers Denmark a crucial opportunity to steer discussions on fundamental questions, aligning with its priority to adapt conflict responses and prevention strategies to contemporary challenges. Peacekeeping, historically one of the UN’s most significant and visible conflict management tools, stands at a crossroads. The large, multidimensional flagship mission in Mali was terminated in 2023, and the mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo has wound down, leaving lingering questions about their positive contributions to peace. No new missions, whether large or small, are currently being deployed. Furthermore, Secretary-General António Guterres appears disengaged from discussions on the future of peacekeeping, reflecting broader uncertainty about its relevance in today’s conflict landscape, and consensus among Security Council members is becoming increasingly elusive. With the background context of ongoing geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East, there is a perception that peacekeeping missions deployed, supported, and/or mandated by the UN are becoming obsolete in addressing the evolving nature of modern conflicts.
- Topic:
- Peacekeeping, Geopolitics, UN Security Council, and Future
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Denmark
142. The rise and fall of the Wagner Group
- Author:
- Karen Philippa Larsen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The Wagner Group’s rise, conflict and fall show a process firstly of endorsing private military companies in Russia, only to later seek to regain control by including the groups in the official security structures. The plane crash that killed the leader of the Wagner Group, oligarch Yevgeniy Prigozhin, and six other high-ranking Wagner Group members in August 2023 marked the literal and figurative fall of the Wagner Group’s considerable influence on Russian foreign policy. The Wagner Group is what Russia calls a private military company (PMC), which tends to have a much closer relationship to the state than we would normally expect from a private company in the West.
- Topic:
- Security, Wagner Group, Private Military Companies (PMCs), and Yevgeny Prigozhin
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Eurasia
143. Okinawa and Thule US military bases
- Author:
- Minori Takahashi and Ulrik Pram Gad
- Publication Date:
- 08-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Dialogue is key to building trust and legitimacy around US military bases. A comparison of the bases in Okinawa and Thule reveals that the outcome of such dialogues is shaped by who is included in the conversation. Involving regional governments can enhance inclusivity but lead to political instability, while relying on central authorities may offer stability but at the cost of excluding local communities.
- Topic:
- Legitimacy, Dialogue, Trust, and Military Bases
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, and Greenland
144. Trump and the future of transatlantic relations
- Author:
- Mikkel Runge Olesen and Jakob Linnet Schmidt
- Publication Date:
- 08-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- A widespread view in Europe is that the US is becoming more a necessary partner than an ally or a friend. Lack of confidence that the US will defend Europe is as powerful a driver for increased European defence spending as pressure from the US. Due to the breach of trust, transatlantic relations are unlikely to be normalised after Trump.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Transatlantic Relations, Donald Trump, and Defense Spending
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
145. China and Russia challenge the Arctic order
- Author:
- Patrik Andersson
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Sino-Russian Arctic cooperation is real but limited – and should not distract from the broader strategic challenges each country poses individually. While the partnership merits attention, some aspects are more symbolic than substantive, with Russia ultimately controlling the pace and direction. Media narratives often highlight the growing alignment between China and Russia in the Arctic and the potential threat this poses to other states. Yet the partnership remains constrained by diverging priorities, Russia’s wariness of Chinese influence, and China’s reluctance to expose itself to sanctions or engage in risky ventures. At the same time Russia’s increasing dependence on China since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has given Beijing opportunities to pursue deeper access to the Russian Arctic on its own terms and in areas that align with its long-term objectives. Rather than engaging broadly, China is selective in how and where it invests or participates – a dynamic that could intensify underlying frictions between the two even as global geopolitical shifts continue to draw them closer in the region.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, and Arctic
146. Three opportunities for expanding Danish 'Techplomacy'
- Author:
- Kristin Anabel Eggeling
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- As governments around the world struggle with the international dimensions of digital transformation, Denmark has been at the forefront with its pioneering ‘techplomacy’ strategy. Now, it has the opportunity to enhance this approach through discursive, geographic and sectoral expansion. The term ‘techplomacy’ merges technology and diplomacy. Since 2017 the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs has appointed three ‘tech ambassadors’; opened and developed three ‘tech embassies’ in Palo Alto, Beijing and Copenhagen; and published two dedicated ‘tech diplomacy’ strategies in 2021 and 2024. Thanks to these efforts, Denmark has become widely regarded as a diplomatic pioneer in this field, not least by the large number of states that have begun to follow the Danish model.1 In light of considerable geopolitical changes since the publication of the most recent strategy in May 2024,2 the Ministry could expand these efforts in three ways. First, discursively – by fostering more inclusive global narratives and highlighting the democratic benefits of digital regulation; second, geographically – by extending its virtual reach and physical presence to other global hubs of technology development; and third sectorally – by investing in new forms of cross-sectoral diplomacy that focus on collaboration with key sites of research and development and major technology companies.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Science and Technology, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Denmark
147. The crisis of multilateralism and African peace operations
- Author:
- Corine van Emmerik and Peter Albrecht
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Resolution 2719, adopted in December 2023, holds the potential to be a watershed in how the UN and the broader international community support African-led peace operations. However, its implementation is faltering amid political inertia, technical hurdles, and US hostility toward global institutions.1 2719 authorised the UN to use ‘assessed contributions’ – mandatory payments by member states – to cover 75% of the costs of African Union (AU) missions, with the AU expected to provide the remaining 25%. Early messaging around 2719 suggested that it might provide stable funding for peace operations on the continent that has hosted the majority of peacekeeping missions since the Cold War. It would recognise that Africans conduct the vast majority of fighting in security operations, yet enjoy neither political leadership of deployments nor financial support that reflects their sacrifice in providing an international public good. However, the resolution has not yet been tested in practice, and geopolitical disruption has caused political momentum to stall. A stable funding basis for African-led peacekeeping now appears increasingly out of reach, as the US retreats from the very institutions of the liberal world order it once claimed to champion, though often inconsistently in practice. The future of the resolution now hinges on a Security Council vote in May 2025, which will determine whether it applies to the AU’s mission in Somalia – the only active AU-led peace operation and therefore the only obvious test case.2
- Topic:
- United Nations, Peacekeeping, Multilateralism, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa
148. Denmark needs to rethink its multilateral engagement
- Author:
- Rens van Munster and Corine van Emmerik
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Uncertainty about NATO’s future and American commitment to European security is challenging the foundations of Danish foreign and security policy. Denmark must face this new reality and strengthen its commitment to multilateralism as central to its long-term security and influence. Denmark’s 2023 foreign policy strategy acknowledges that ‘the rule-based world order and multilateralism are under pressure’ – a stark reality for a small state whose security and prosperity fundamentally depend on international rules. Intensified geopolitical competition, rival visions of global governance, and the erosion of consensus on international security norms have plunged multilateralism into a full-blown crisis, placing Denmark – like many countries – in an increasingly difficult position.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, Geopolitics, Multilateralism, and Engagement
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Denmark
149. Tariff Tensions: Redefining Washington-New Delhi Relations
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 08-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The strategic partnership between the United States and India faces a critical juncture as recent developments strain their ties. On August 15, 2025, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for national self-reliance in trade and foreign exchange, a response to high tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump's administration on Indian imports.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Tariffs, Trade, Donald Trump, Imports, and Narendra Modi
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, India, North America, and United States of America
150. Strategic Recalibration: Turkey's Decision to End the Oil Agreement with Iraq
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 08-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- On July 21, 2025, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced his government's decision not to renew the agreements and protocols signed between Türkiye and Iraq since 1973 regarding the crude oil pipeline extending from Iraq to Türkiye. The agreement, which facilitated oil transport from Kirkuk in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq to the Yumurtalık oil port in southeastern Türkiye, has played a strategic role in delivering millions of barrels of Iraqi oil through the Turkish port of Ceyhan to global markets. Originally renewed in 2010 for fifteen years, the agreement is scheduled to expire on July 27, 2026.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Oil, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East
151. European Shift: The Path Toward Palestinian State Recognition
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 08-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Western and European announcements regarding intentions to recognize a Palestinian state in September 2025 have accelerated, coinciding with the upcoming UN General Assembly meeting. These developments emerge amid intensifying criticism of Israeli positions in both Western media and social platforms, creating mounting domestic pressure on European governments to adopt clearer stances.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Palestinians, UN General Assembly, and Recognition
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
152. Strengthening Alliances: The strategic importance of the Russian foreign minister's Asian tour
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- On Friday, July 11, 2025, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov embarked on a high-level diplomatic tour encompassing North Korea and China, aiming to coordinate efforts on several pressing issues of mutual concern. Lavrov's visit to Pyongyang occurred as part of the second round of strategic dialogue between senior diplomats. Meanwhile, his trip to China coincided with his participation in the ministerial meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The meeting served as preparation for the anticipated Russian-Chinese presidential summit scheduled for August 2025, during which officials are expected to discuss the current state and future prospects of the SCO's activities, along with regional and international developments.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Affairs, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Asia, and North Korea
153. The Indian Factor: Analyzing Pakistan-Turkey Rapprochement and its Implications for India
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- In a move that reflects the deepening ties between Pakistan and Turkey, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif visited Turkey on May 25–26, 2025 — his second visit to the country this year — as part of a broader regional diplomatic tour that also included Iran, Azerbaijan, and Tajikistan. The tour aimed to express Pakistan's gratitude and strengthen regional partnerships in the wake of its recent military confrontation with India. Turkey's support for Islamabad during this conflict has strained India–Turkey relations, prompting New Delhi to launch campaigns calling for the boycott of Turkish products and services.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Partnerships, Rapprochement, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, Turkey, and India
154. Geography and Energy: The US-Central Asia Partnership in Critical Minerals
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The U.S. administration has issued an executive order aimed at boosting domestic production of critical minerals, reflecting President Donald Trump's recognition of the national security risks posed by China's dominance over global supply chains in this sector. Following the approach of previous administrations, the current leadership has sought partnerships with multiple suppliers to diversify American access to these vital resources. The focus has now turned to the five Central Asian republics—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—a region rich in minerals essential for energy and defense technologies. Through two primary frameworks, the U.S. has begun exploring Central Asia's untapped critical mineral wealth: the C5+1 Critical Minerals Dialogue and the G7 Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII), alongside a series of bilateral memorandums of understanding signed with the region. However, political ambition does not necessarily align with the logistical challenges of emerging supply chains in Central Asia. In response to these complexities, analysts Haley Nelson and Natalia Stroz published a report with the Atlantic Council titled "Central Asia's geography inhibits a US critical minerals partnership."
- Topic:
- Partnerships, Energy, and Critical Minerals
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, North America, and United States of America
155. Strategic Shift: Understanding Russia's Delisting of the Taliban
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Russia's relationship with the Taliban has undergone a significant transformation in recent times. Moscow now perceives the Taliban as a potential strategic partner, seeking to establish more open diplomatic relations—a remarkable departure from the hostile stance maintained since 2003 when Russia formally designated the movement as a terrorist organization. This gradual evolution has unfolded over recent years, culminating in a growing understanding and emerging cooperation between two former adversaries.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Terrorism, Bilateral Relations, Taliban, Geopolitics, and Strategic Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, and Taliban
156. Ocalan’s Call: Can Peace Be Achieved Between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- After four decades of violence claiming at least 40,000 lives, Abdullah Ocalan, founder and leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), issued a message from his prison on an island off Istanbul on February 27, 2025. In his statement, Ocalan urged the PKK to lay down its arms, end its resistance against the Turkish state, and dissolve itself. Responding positively to Ocalan's call, the PKK's executive committee announced in early March 2025 that it accepted his proposal and awaited Ankara's response. The initiative aligns with a proposal launched on October 22, 2024, in the Turkish parliament by Devlet Bahceli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and a key ally of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Bahceli's initiative aimed to facilitate dialogue with Ocalan to disband the PKK, disarm its fighters, and declare an end to terrorism in Turkey—a move endorsed by Erdoğan.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Peace, PKK, and Abdullah Ocalan
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Kurdistan
157. Fragile Ceasefire: Will international efforts succeed in halting the escalation in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- In response to the escalating humanitarian crisis in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the coalition of rebel groups led by the M23 movement[1] announced a ceasefire on February 4, 2025. The decision came after intense military clashes in the city of Goma, which had been intensifying since January 25. According to the United Nations, the conflict has had devastating consequences, resulting in at least 900 deaths, approximately 2,880 injuries, and the displacement of over 400,000 people since the beginning of the year.
- Topic:
- Ceasefire, Armed Conflict, and M23
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Rwanda, and Democratic Republic of Congo
158. Uncertainty in Caracas: What Awaits Venezuela's Maduro in his Third Term?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- On January 10, 2025, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was sworn in for a third six-year term. The opposition condemned this event as a "coup," accusing Maduro of election fraud in connection with the presidential elections held on July 28, 2024. In response, the government organized a rally in support of Maduro in the capital. Meanwhile, the opposition staged a protest led by Maria Corina Machado, who made her first public appearance since August 2024.
- Topic:
- Economics, Elections, Protests, Organized Crime, Social Unrest, and Nicolas Maduro
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and Venezuela
159. ‘Maximum pressure’ sanctions on Venezuela help US adversaries, hurt Venezuelans
- Author:
- William Tobin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The “maximum pressure” strategy employed from 2018 to 2022 against the illegitimate Nicolás Maduro regime in Venezuela did not serve US interests. Stringent oil sanctions imposed on Venezuela forced the retreat of Western oil firms from the country, principally benefitting adversaries. During the maximum pressure campaign, Venezuela’s oil production was rerouted to China at discounted prices, Iran supplied the diluent Venezuela required for oil production, and Russian investors became more critical amid a dearth on Western investment. A democratic transition remained elusive while repression and human rights violations continued. Venezuelans suffered, US adversaries expanded their influence, and Maduro remained. The current system of issuing specific licenses for Western oil producers to operate in Venezuela has yielded superior results. The benefits of this policy have been the following: Venezuelan oil exports have been diverted to friendly nations. Treasury has increased visibility on all oil-related transactions, decreasing the clandestine shipment of oil through shadow tanker fleets operated by the Chinese defense establishment, Iran, or PDVSA. Compensation to the regime is limited to taxes and royalties, which are required by Venezuelan law. The system has enabled the return or reemployment of qualified engineers and technicians to restore production from degraded oilfield infrastructure. The incoming US administration should prioritize inflicting more harm on the regime and its enablers than the Venezuelan people—or US interests. To do so, sanctions must be linked to clear objectives. An uncalibrated reapplication of maximum pressure would cede influence to China, Russia, and Iran, while doing little to loosen the regime’s grip on power. Instead, the existing system of specific licenses should be maintained and expanded. To punish Maduro, the administration should continue to target individuals who enable his illegitimate rule, adding to the 180 individuals already sanctioned by the Treasury. A targeted sanctions policy—not maximum pressure—is the only way to ensure that US actions to confront the Maduro regime impose their desired effect, and do not play into the hands of Beijing, Moscow, or Tehran.
- Topic:
- Markets, Governance, Sanctions, Geopolitics, Economy, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, Venezuela, and United States of America
160. Minerals diplomacy as geoeconomic statecraft: Implications for resource security priorities in a rapidly changing world
- Author:
- Cordelia Buchanan Ponczek
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Critical raw materials (CRMs) and rare earth elements (REEs) are essential for defence, emerging technologies, and the energy transition. However, supply chains remain highly concentrated, with China dominating much of the refining and processing. Asymmetries and choke points highlight the need to control these resources. Minerals diplomacy has become a central tool for geoeconomic actors, including the US and the EU, to secure CRMs and REEs, often through deals with resource-holding third countries. This creates new partnerships while heightening competition to bind third-party countries, which, in turn, seek to assert their agency. Minerals diplomacy blends cooperative, coercive, and binding elements, as governments combine bargaining, leverage, and deals to maintain access to critical resources. States are also deploying creative solutions, such as recycling and reusing mining waste, to reduce external dependencies and enable more self-reliant systems, but this requires effective public-private cooperation. The intensifying contest for CRMs and REEs exposes governance gaps. Accounting for local perspectives, establishing stronger international oversight and global benchmarks, and ensuring equitable outcomes could ease competition, give third-party countries a greater voice, and serve as a tool of geoeconomic soft power.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Economy, Trade, Supply Chains, Minerals, Energy, and Geoeconomics
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America
161. The geoeconomic turn in the Americas: The Dominican Republic at the centre of Washington’s return
- Author:
- Lauri Tähtinen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- The tide is turning rapidly as the United States shifts its response to China’s industrial rise, with Washington returning to the Western Hemisphere in search of not only new trade relationships but also industrial, foreign, and security policies. This shift reflects a geoeconomic turn in the Americas, where economic actors – from drug cartels to critical supply-chain partners – are increasingly treated as security concerns, blurring the line between commerce and security. The Dominican Republic is positioning itself as a partner in both the joint development of the Americas and US security. Its growing alignment with the United States reflects global shifts elsewhere, such as in Finland’s relationship with Washington. The Dominican Republic’s sustained economic growth and its location between the US territory of Puerto Rico and the region’s security challenges place it at the centre of Washington’s attempt to re-engineer hemispheric value chains and security partnerships.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Economic Growth, Trade, Supply Chains, and Geoeconomics
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, North America, and United States of America
162. Global development in crisis: Responding to America’s retreat
- Author:
- Sarah S. Stroup
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- A definitive shift in both resources and rhetoric has upended the global development sector. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the policies of the new US administration, although many European states had already started reducing foreign aid budgets earlier. Beyond its vicious rhetoric and wrecking-ball approach, the Trump administration’s arguments echo three long-standing critiques that development professionals have made themselves. Development experts in the US and Europe argue that development goals have become too broad, aid has failed to reach local actors, and the sector is too technocratic and removed from the concerns of Northern publics. A renewed focus on poverty reduction, combined with power-sharing abroad and public engagement at home, may provide answers to these critiques. Achieving development outcomes may require focusing less on providing direct assistance and more on reducing the harms created by Western states in other arenas, including trade and finance.
- Topic:
- Development, Foreign Aid, and Budget
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, and United States of America
163. The war in Sudan in the era of a multipolar world: Mismanaged rather than forgotten
- Author:
- Katariina Mustasilta
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- The war in Sudan is not a “forgotten war”. Rather, it is a highly internationalised geopolitical battleground, reflecting old peacebuilding failures and key implications of the shifting international order for conflict dynamics. Nor is it a proxy war, as the involvement of external actors is opportunistic and issue-based, with state powers supporting different sides while maintaining cooperative ties elsewhere. Peace efforts in Sudan are fragmented and heavily influenced by geopolitical agendas, sidelining civilian agency and undermining multilateral frameworks for peace. For the EU, Sudan presents a challenge in reconciling its values-based approach with its pursuit of pragmatic foreign policy. From a long-term strategic perspective, it is imperative to support Sudanese-led peace efforts beyond transactional deals.
- Topic:
- War, Geopolitics, Crisis Management, and Multipolarity
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
164. Easier Said than Done: Overcoming Coherence Challenges Within the United Nations System
- Author:
- Eugene Chen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- Personnel and budgetary policies and procedures can seem esoteric at best and incidental to the lofty work of the United Nations (UN), even to seasoned UN watchers. These issues, however, are not merely technical matters within the purview of administrative officers or Fifth Committee delegates. The normative and operational functioning of the United Nations is a function of its personnel and budgets, but not only as a matter of adequate resourcing. In fact, the policies and practices of the UN around the management of its personnel and budgets also have an outsized and underappreciated effect, including on whether mandates are implemented in a coherent and effective manner. This newest policy brief on overcoming coherence challenges within the UN from Eugene Chen, senior fellow, provides a primer for: Efforts to enhance UN coherence. Administrative obstacles to coherence. Observations and recommendations for UN bureaucratic leadership and member states.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Reform, Budget, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
165. The Process for Selecting the Secretary General of the United Nations
- Author:
- Mark Simonoff and Thibault Camelli
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- In 2026, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) will engage in a process to select the next Secretary-General of the United Nations. The current Secretary-General, António Guterres, will complete his second five-year term at the end of 2026. This paper offers a historical overview of the evolution of the process for selecting and appointing the UN Secretary-General over time. This process consolidated decades of practices and rules, and was recently refined by the General Assembly in its resolution 79/3271 adopted on September 5, 2025. In short, the process has evolved from a non-transparent, closed-door exercise, almost exclusively dominated by the Security Council, to a more transparent and inclusive process involving more active and engaged participation from the General Assembly. This policy brief, originally published in July 2025, has been updated as of October 2025 to unpack this process.
- Topic:
- United Nations, UN Security Council, and Secretary General
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
166. Drivers of Extremist Sympathies: Security, Ideology, and Firearms in Lebanon and Tunisia
- Author:
- Doaa' Elnakhala, Gergely Hideg, and Darine Atwa
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- Lebanon and Tunisia share a common struggle against extremism, but the social, political, religious, and ideological make-up of each country is quite different. The Small Arms Survey conducted a general population survey in the two countries between September and November 2023, in which 3,339 adults were interviewed about their views on key elements of their lives, violent extremism, and firearms. Drivers of Extremist Sympathies: Security, Ideology, and Firearms in Lebanon and Tunisia—the latest Briefing Paper from the Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) project—demonstrates a clear linkage between firearms and violent extremism, though manifested differently in the two countries. The paper also demonstrates that chronic insecurity and the absence of effective state-provided security play a significant role in fostering affinity for violent extremist groups. The findings have implications for other countries struggling with similar issues, both in the Middle East and North Africa region and beyond.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Violent Extremism, Weapons, and Ideology
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Lebanon, and Tunisia
167. Climate Crisis and Gender Equality: Emerging Security Risks in the Euro-Mediterranean Region
- Author:
- Manale Abou Dagher, Noura Abdelwahab, Sarine Karajerjian, Suzanne Baaklini, and Zeina Moneer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- This policy study focuses on a critical and timely intersection – gender equality and climate change – and highlights the disproportionate impact of climate change on women, especially those living in climate-vulnerable rural areas. This publication is the result of discussions held during the session “Climate Crisis and Gender Equality in the Euro-Mediterranean Region: Emerging Security Risks” at the High-Level Conference on Women for the Mediterranean, co-organised by the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) and the Commissioner for Gender Equality of the Republic of Cyprus on 30-31 May. The event brought together experts from the region to share insights, challenges and policy recommendations, highlighting the importance of empowering women in climate decision-making processes to effectively address these emerging risks. Research shows that women’s leadership in climate action increases the effectiveness of policies, particularly in sectors such as agriculture, water management and renewable energy, where they are disproportionately affected by climate change. However, barriers such as limited access to finance and technology and under-representation in green sectors continue to hamper their potential to drive climate solutions.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Women, Leadership, and Gender Equality
- Political Geography:
- Europe
168. Swipe Right for Talent: Tinder for Jobseekers as the New Way to Recruit Non-EU Workers
- Author:
- Maria Gargano
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- A platform where EU-based employers and third country nationals could find their perfect half – known officially as the Talent Pool, or more informally the Tinder for Jobseekers – seems to be taking its final shape, and has entered the negotiations phase with European lawmakers. The platform crosses paths with several other EU initiatives aiming at boosting EU’s competitiveness through its labour market. Presented as part of the Skills and Talent Mobility Package, the EU Talent Pool promises the EU employers to help fill their vacancies and help with sector wide shortages, and non-EU nationals to find jobs in a standardised, predictable way across Member States. The EU knows the continent is lagging in talent acquisition compared to its peers. Employers in the EU say they have difficulties finding candidates, with SMEs being particularly affected: 74% declares to be facing skills shortages for at least one job role in their company currently. For some Member States, the situation is not only currently bleak, but those difficulties have doubled or more in the last five years for countries like Belgium, Italy or The Netherlands.
- Topic:
- European Union, Employment, Labor Market, and Jobs
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Belgium, Italy, and Netherlands
169. The Arctic: A Strategic Shift for Europe. A Unique Opportunity for Belgium
- Author:
- Hanaa El Hajji
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- With this clear assertion, the European Union published its updated Arctic policy in October 2021, titled “A stronger EU commitment to a peaceful, sustainable and prosperous Arctic.” Since then, the geopolitical landscape in and around the Arctic has shifted rapidly, requiring greater focus and an adapted response from the European Union as a whole. Since the publication of the EU’s 2021 Joint Communication, the Arctic’s strategic landscape has shifted dramatically. The war in Ukraine has disrupted Arctic cooperation, halting dialogue with Russia within the Arctic Council, and Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO has altered the regional security architecture, leaving Russia increasingly isolated among the Arctic Eight. These shifts have challenged the concept of “Arctic exceptionalism,” revealing how the region is becoming more deeply entangled in global geopolitical rivalries. Meanwhile, the intensifying effects of climate change are amplifying the Arctic’s economic and strategic value.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, International Cooperation, European Union, Geopolitics, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Belgium, and Arctic
170. The Geopolitical Impact of USAID’s Retreat on Humanitarian Aid: Towards a Complementary Approach between China and the EU?
- Author:
- Edouard Xia and Alexandre Piron
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- Trump’s decision to cut funding and stop most of USAID’s projects will have lasting consequences. First and foremost, it adds great pressure on an already big funding gap. Forgotten and underfunded crises will suffer from it. But Trump’s action will also bear an effect on the nature of humanitarian aid itself. USAID’s retreat accelerates a geopolitical shift. China, “Champion of the Global South”, will inevitably fill the void and promote its own model of foreign aid. Development, economic and humanitarian rationales are therefore expected to be increasingly mixed at the expense of a principled approach. What could in turn the EU, and Belgium within it, do? Could they play the role of a “missing link” and promote a complementary approach to China? This brief offers insights on some questions ahead of the upcoming European Humanitarian Forum.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, European Union, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
171. Strengthening EU Participatory Governance: Lessons Learnt from the Platform on Sustainable Finance
- Author:
- Sebastian Emde
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- The European Commission’s participatory governance framework plays a crucial role in shaping EU policies, as exemplified by the Platform on Sustainable Finance (PSF). However, the PSF’s first two mandates revealed deficiencies in terms of transparency, balance, fairness, and accountability, limiting the body’s capacity to enhance the effectiveness and legitimacy of policymaking. As the PSF’s second mandate ended in March 2025, this policy brief discusses several lessons that can be learnt from this experience. It recommends structural reforms to strengthen both the legitimacy and quality of EU sustainable finance policymaking and to enhance participatory governance in the EU more broadly.
- Topic:
- Governance, European Union, Finance, Transparency, Sustainability, and European Commission
- Political Geography:
- Europe
172. Science as a Bridge: The Evolving Role of Research and Innovation in Euro-mediterranean Cooperation
- Author:
- Roger Albinyana, Joan Borrell Mayeur, Marilena Rossano, Rafael Rodríguez-Clemente, and Ali Rhouma
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- This policy study explores different aspects of Euro-Mediterranean research cooperation, offering perspectives from policy-makers, scientists, and stakeholders actively shaping the region’s research landscape. The articles included in the publication present a comprehensive overview of how research initiatives have evolved over the past 30 years and their impact on critical areas such as climate change, digital transformation sustainable energy, health, and inclusive economic growth.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Research, Economic Growth, and Innovation
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Mediterranean
173. From Integration to Inclusion: Empowering Immigrant Women in the EU
- Author:
- Justine Staelens
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- This policy brief examines the socioeconomic integration of immigrant women with a particular focus on their occupational integration and the labor market opportunities available to them. It explores the challenges encountered by immigrant women in Western European countries and critically assesses the current policy responses to these issues. The study highlights significant shortcomings in employment integration programs, showing their inadequacies in achieving the comprehensive societal inclusion of immigrant women. It offers a series of recommendations aimed at reorienting the concept of integration toward an intersectional lens that fosters the genuine inclusion of immigrant women within the EU.
- Topic:
- European Union, Women, Immigrants, Integration, and Inclusion
- Political Geography:
- Europe
174. Fostering regional cooperation on natural disasters and crisis management in the Mediterranean
- Author:
- Talal Soud Deifallah Alghrair, Laurent Alfonso, Celine Yazbek, Jean-Claude Al Khalil, and Sonia Chabane
- Publication Date:
- 11-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- This Joint Policy Study explores how countries across the region can strengthen cooperation, enhance preparedness, and build resilience through innovation, inclusivity, and shared governance. The Mediterranean region stands at a critical crossroads, as the frequency and intensity of natural disasters and climate-related crises continue to grow. By analysing national approaches to disaster risk management (DRM) in countries such as Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Egypt, and Lebanon, the study highlights the Mediterranean’s multidimensional vulnerabilities — from water scarcity and urbanisation to conflict and governance fragility. It examines the role of the Union Civil Protection Mechanism (UCPM) and the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) in fostering cross-border cooperation and advancing a shared framework for prevention, preparedness, and recovery. Particular attention is given to the integration of technology and early warning systems, including artificial intelligence (AI) and geographic information systems (GIS), to enhance forecasting, risk assessment, and decision-making. At the same time, the study underscores the importance of inclusive strategies that involve marginalised communities, refugees, and displaced populations in disaster planning and recovery. Ultimately, the study argues that regional cooperation, technological innovation, and inclusive governance are essential to safeguarding communities and achieving long-term resilience. It calls for a renewed EU–Southern Neighbourhood partnership, leveraging mechanisms like the UCPM and the Pact for the Mediterranean to build a more cohesive and people-centred approach to crisis management.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Natural Disasters, Crisis Management, Innovation, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Mediterranean and Europe
175. Preventing Corruption in Africa’s Transition Mineral Supply Chains
- Author:
- Susannah Fitzgerald, Aaron Sayne, Mohamed Cisse, and Moise Liboto Makuta
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
- Abstract:
- The current increasing attention to Africa’s mineral resources could attract much needed investment to the continent or power broader development goals, but many citizens view the prospect of a new mining boom with suspicion. The sector has become synonymous with harmful and costly corruption, often perpetrated by wealthy elites and foreign companies who are able to avoid its worst impacts. At the same time, anticorruption actors should be alert to new or shifting dynamics, such as the greater emphasis on value addition, or challenges around access to financing. They should also devote more attention to issues that have long been overlooked, such as the intersection between corruption and other types of harm in the mining sector. Failure to properly address corruption and its causes and consequences will only lead to more harm and instability, both for African countries and across the mineral supply chains needed to power the green transition. Tackling these issues effectively requires a deep understanding of the specific nature of corruption in each country, yet the drivers of corruption often have global roots. Long-lasting solutions to corruption must therefore be a shared responsibility between African leaders, decision-makers in major market jurisdictions, multilateral actors such as the African Union and the African Development Bank, companies across the supply chain, investors and the donor community. Addressing this corruption is therefore crucial, to avoid the injustices of the past. Many of the risks are well known, surrounding political access and civic space, licensing and contracting processes for mining projects, the role of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and processes for collecting revenues from the sector. This means that there are important lessons to learn from the efforts of reformers across the continent and beyond to tackle these harms.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Accountability, Transparency, Supply Chains, Energy Transition, and Critical Minerals
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa
176. Measure to Manage MENA National Oil Companies’ Methane Emissions Reduction Commitments
- Author:
- National Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
- Publication Date:
- 11-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
- Abstract:
- As methane emissions gain greater global attention and financing becomes increasingly tied to climate performance, the participation of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) national oil companies (NOCs) in global frameworks and initiatives is expected to grow. However, this will likely be at a different pace due to differing capacity and objectives of each NOC in the region. NOCs integrated into global financial markets are more likely to participate in multiple international climate initiatives and adopt ambitious. In contrast, isolated NOCs are slower to act unless driven by government mandates or policy priorities. NOCs’ methane abatement strategies can differ significantly than those of international oil companies (IOCs) due to differences in their ownership structures, regulatory environments, operational priorities and access to capital and technology. Most MENA NOCs operate largely within domestic regulatory frameworks which may be less stringent on methane emissions, especially in developing countries. Often, these NOCs prioritize economic growth and energy security over environmental or climate concerns. The lack of consistent and reliable methane emissions data from some NOCs presents a significant barrier to effective abatement. Without accurate baseline measurements, it is difficult to identify priority sources, track progress and evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation efforts. Such data gaps can undermine transparency, making it challenging for stakeholders—including regulators, investors and international partners—to assess performance or offer targeted support.
- Topic:
- Fossil Fuels, Methane, Carbon Emissions, and National Oil Companies
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa
177. Amid global challenges and the need for strong governance: JETP as a potential driver of Senegal’s energy transition
- Author:
- Aida Diop, Abdoulaye Ba, Papa Daouda Diene, and Elimane Haby Kane
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
- Abstract:
- In an uncertain global context and facing urgent challenges in electricity access, the deployment of the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) offers Senegal a unique opportunity to build a clear and coherent public policy for its energy transition. To meet these challenges and succeed in its energy transition, Senegal must establish a robust, inclusive, and cross-sector governance framework to guide the JETP’s deployment. This governance effort should be supported by effective public communication that reaches the most affected communities, providing the initiative with visibility and legitimacy. Repositioned strategic coordination, backed by strengthened interministerial leadership and an expanded, sustained steering committee (COPIL), is essential for an effective and inclusive energy transition.
- Topic:
- Gas, Renewable Energy, Fossil Fuels, and Energy Transition
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Senegal, and Sub-Saharan Africa
178. From Mine to Market: Using Traceability to Fight Mineral Sector Corruption
- Author:
- National Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
- Publication Date:
- 11-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
- Abstract:
- In the global rush for transition minerals, the path from mine to market may become a corridor of corruption. It’s a journey where smuggled minerals vanish, illicit funds are laundered, and communities are left behind. Traceability, then, isn’t just about tracking a product for commercial reasons; it’s about how it can be used to build responsible and resilient value chains. This two-page briefing explains how traceability systems can help identify corruption risks in mineral supply chains and support stronger due diligence. It outlines practical ways companies, governments and civil society can use traceability data to detect red flags, strengthen transparency and promote accountability—from mine to market.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Markets, Mining, Energy Transition, and Traceability
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
179. Hague Summit Series: Recalibrating Relations with Russia
- Author:
- Katarzyna Zysk
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- At their 2024 Summit in Washington, NATO leaders reiterated that Russia “remains the most significant and direct threat” and that “the possibility of an attack against Allies’ sovereignty and territorial integrity” could not be excluded. They committed to reassess and overhaul NATO’s strategy and policy towards Russia in the light of the radically altered security environment.[1] In the run-up to the Hague Summit, debates have intensified over whether to declare the 1997 NATO–Russia Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security (NRFA) void.[2] Russia’s blatant violations of the act, including repeated acts of military aggression, extensive nuclear coercion and escalation in the grey-zone, large-scale military build-up, and, in particular, its brutal war against Ukraine have made the document increasingly untenable as a foundation for mutual relations. Moscow has openly declared itself at war with the west for years, yet it has simultaneously exploited the reassurance measures embedded in the document to undermine NATO’s security and cohesion.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Defense Policy, NATO, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and United States of America
180. Russia and the Red Sea since 2022: Militarised Foreign Policy or Strategy of Conflict?
- Author:
- Ivan Ulises Klyszcz
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- Accounting for over 10% of world trade, the Red Sea is an essential waterway and a chokepoint for international shipping. Piracy, instability, and inter-state conflict are long-term challenges that have kept regional and extra-regional powers engaged in contributing to the security of the area. Since 19 October 2023, the Red Sea attacks on commercial shipping by the Yemen-based Houthi movement (Ansar Allah) have only raised the stakes. In this context, Russian engagements with the region deserve scrutiny. Crucially, between January 2022 and August 2024, Russia’s share of the total oil transit through the Suez Canal jumped from just above 0% to almost 70%.[1] Moscow’s reported support for the Houthi movement, its search for a naval base on the Red Sea shores, and its broader military diplomacy raise questions about the Kremlin’s intentions in the area. What is Russia’s approach to the Red Sea? How does it fit into Moscow’s broader aggressive foreign policy?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Piracy, Conflict, Houthis, and Shipping
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Yemen, and Red Sea
181. Hague Summit Series: NATO-Ukraine
- Author:
- Tony Lawrence
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- Russia's war in Ukraine shows few signs of ending. Across Europe, there is a widely held view that the outcome of the war will be critically important to determining the continent's future security: Ukraine must prevail. This view, however, does not appear to be shared by the second Trump administration which, after a brief attempt to negotiate a (unjust) solution, seems unable to deliver on the president's campaign promise to bring peace, in particular if this involves being tough on Russia. Differences between the US and most European Allies regarding both the conditions for ending the war and Ukraine's longer-term integration into Euro-Atlantic security structures present one of the greatest dangers to the transatlantic relationship in the years ahead. More immediately, uncertainty about how to handle these differences presents the greatest risk that NATO's forthcoming summit in The Hague will not be seen as a success.
- Topic:
- NATO, European Union, Peace, Armed Conflict, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and United States of America
182. Hague Summit Series: The Central Issue. Defence Spending
- Author:
- Felix Gasper
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- In 2014, the NATO Allies agreed that within a decade, they would spend at least 2% of their GDP on defence. Following Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and war in the Donbas, and its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the European Allies have focused more on strengthening their military posture. Donald Trump's insistence that Europe should take larger responsibility for its own security and the doubts he has sown regarding America’s commitment to its NATO obligations have strengthened European resolve and emphasised the need for the continent to foster greater military independence, including from the US. Trump’s vigorous return to these ideas at the start of his second term will make defence spending, in particular the Secretary General’s proposal for a new NATO target, the key agenda item for The Hague Summit.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Defense Spending
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, and United States of America
183. Hague Summit Series: Trump and the Rebalancing of NATO
- Author:
- Joshua C. Huminski
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- The perception that the US has turned its back on or is in the process of separating from Europe and continental defence and security is certainly understandable. Naturally, there is a focus on the noise of President Donald Trump’s rhetoric rather than the signal of his policy intentions. While there remains and will remain significant transatlanticism at nearly every level of government, Congress, and across the ecosystem of policy institutions and industry, there is a growing appreciation of the drivers of the president’s policies within these circles. In many ways, the Trump agenda towards NATO is a practical recognition of new realities, and more a long overdue re-balancing of the transatlantic relationship to reflect the administration’s geostrategic worldview and domestic priorities.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Europe and United States of America
184. Hague Summit Series: The EU-NATO Relationship
- Author:
- Marianne Paire
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- The return of great power competition and the weakening of the international order have produced significant threats to Europe's security. Most urgently, Russia's aggression has brought large-scale war to Ukraine and Russia into a hybrid confrontation with Ukraine's western allies. At the same time, the US seems ready to reduce its commitment to Europe's security and even to be hostile towards its long-standing partners and the values they defend.[1] This deteriorating geopolitical situation should encourage greater synergies between NATO and the EU, the two main organisations that deal with security and defence in Europe.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, Strategic Competition, Russia-Ukraine War, and Great Powers
- Political Geography:
- Europe
185. Francophonie: A Subtle Response to Revisionist Powers
- Author:
- Arthur Leveque and Justin Leveque
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- The Organisation de la Francophonie (OIF) has long been a platform where France can reach out to its partners outside Europe. President Emmanuel Macron’s appearance at the latest 2024 Villers-Cotterêts OIF summit testifies to his willingness to defend a French concept of globalisation based on “a diplomacy that stands for sovereignty and territorial integrity” without “double standards.”[1] President Macron reiterated the outward vision of his government, extending his foreign policy to that of the entire Francophonie—seen as a French “area of influence.” The French president declaimed his resolute support for nations whose sovereignty and territorial integrity are in jeopardy, such as Ukraine, Armenia, Lebanon, and the Indo-Pacific countries. Undoubtedly, his speech was addressed to both his non-European partners tempted to apply double standards when Ukraine is mentioned and to revisionist powers like Russia and China.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Globalization, and Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Europe and France
186. Parameters to Assess Escalation Risks in Space
- Author:
- Nivedita Raju
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
- Abstract:
- Space-enabled services are critical for various civilian and military purposes. Current military uses of space—for example, in the Russia–Ukraine War—indicate several avenues for unpredictability and ambiguity, which can increase potential for escalation, both in space and on earth. Yet, there is no common understanding of escalation risks in the international community. This SIPRI Research Policy Paper identifies four parameters to assess escalation risks in the space domain: the target, the capability used, the effect and the consequences. These parameters can help establish a standardized approach to assess whether an attack is escalatory. Based on current trends that undermine predictability and transparency in space activities, these parameters inform recommendations to minimize escalation risks. These recommendations include proposals to limit attacks on high-value strategically significant space systems; undertake exchanges on critical infrastructure; characterize acts that are especially escalatory; to enhance resilience of space-based services for civilians; and to build a typology that identifies potential harms. The recommendations also demand further action from states to implement and enforce international law governing space activities and to engage with commercial actors to raise awareness and clearly establish their accountability.
- Topic:
- Security, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Disarmament, Space, Risk Assessment, and Nuclear Security
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
187. From Silos to Synergies: Partnering for Social Cohesion in the Sahel
- Author:
- Simone Bunse, Caroline Delgado, and Rachel Blair
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
- Abstract:
- The Sahel Resilience Partnership (SRP) is a German government-funded initiative that unites two United Nations entities and Germany’s international development agency to address converging crises in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger. The SRP is an example of the operationalization of the humanitarian–development–peace (HDP) nexus. The partners use coordinated, multisectoral programming covering food and nutrition security, climate-resilient ecosystems, social services and conflict resolution to enhance resilience to shocks and foster social cohesion. Key strengths include a multilevel steering structure and an adaptable joint regional plan. However, the SRP faces persistent operational challenges, notably navigating political instability and governance issues in the Sahel. Additionally, coordinating across agencies with different mandates, budgets, timelines and set-ups complicates efforts to achieve thorough geographical and programmatic convergence. The SRP and other organizations at the HDP nexus need to deepen complementarity, proactively share data and—where possible—seek operational convergence at the village level.
- Topic:
- Security, Governance, International Development, Peace, Social Cohesion, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Germany, and Sahel
188. Solar Power and Environmental Peacebuilding in South-central Somalia
- Author:
- Ann-Sophie Böhle and Kheira Tarif
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
- Abstract:
- In Somalia, widespread energy poverty and a heavy reliance on conventional energy sources are deeply linked to ongoing conflict dynamics. Dependence on firewood and charcoal worsens environmental degradation and intensifies competition over natural resources. These challenges are further exacerbated by the effects of climate change and limited access to basic services. To address these interconnected challenges, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) in Somalia is advancing rural electrification through solar power as part of a broader environmental peacebuilding strategy. This SIPRI Policy Brief explores how the IOM’s approach to solar power and the facilitation of local public–private partnerships (PPPs) can support environmental peacebuilding at three levels: the community level, the local business level and the district council level. By creating local PPP agreements to implement solar power projects, the initiatives aim to foster cooperation, reduce resource-based tensions and strengthen government legitimacy in south-central Somalia. The brief shares learnings from early implementation stages and provides recommendations for donors and implementing organizations seeking to enhance the peacebuilding potential of solar energy projects.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Environment, Solar Power, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somalia
189. Strengthening the OSCE’s Climate Security Agenda
- Author:
- Emma Hakala and Florian Krampe
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
- Abstract:
- Despite a clear mandate from the December 2021 Stockholm Ministerial Council Decision on Strengthening Co-operation to Address the Challenges Caused by Climate Change, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s (OSCE) approach is yet to reach its full potential. An analysis of the current strategy shows that while the OSCE has strengths, such as a comprehensive security mandate and a grassroots presence through its field operations, its effectiveness is undermined by weaknesses, such as geopolitical distractions, a tendency to focus on general environmental work rather than security and poor integration between headquarters and field missions. To strengthen its work, the OSCE should frame climate change as a cross-dimensional security risk, create an annual integrated climate and environmental security assessment and improve internal cooperation. These actions would better prepare the organization for a changing security landscape.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Development, and OSCE
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
190. Security Cooperation between Japan and the Nordic States in Uncertain Times
- Author:
- Fei Su, Jingdong Yuan, and Jiayi Zhou
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
- Abstract:
- Amid rising geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty, security dynamics between Japan and the Nordic states are evolving. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Japanese and Nordic security concerns have increasingly converged. Security cooperation between the two regions has expanded through bilateral initiatives and within broader frameworks such as the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Despite limitations in states’ resources and political will to operate beyond their immediate neighbourhood, there is mutual recognition of the need to engage more actively, individually and collectively, on security matters. This shared awareness provides a foundation for deeper cooperation in support of both regional and global security.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Threat Perception, and Security Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Europe, Asia, and Nordic Nations
191. Climate Change, Human Mobility and Security
- Author:
- Kheira Tarif
- Publication Date:
- 11-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
- Abstract:
- This SIPRI Policy Brief explores the connected challenges of climate change, human mobility and security, highlighting how fragmented policies and misconceptions—such as the myth of mass climate migration—hinder effective responses. The brief contributes to addressing this gap by presenting findings on three underexplored dynamics across the mobility spectrum. It finds that urban migration can support adaptation but also strain urban conditions, involuntary immobility can heighten people’s vulnerabilities, and poorly designed climate action can lead to displacement, inequality or unrest. These dynamics show that governance determines the security outcomes of human mobility. To address this, the policy brief calls for safe, rights-based migration that facilitates climate adaptation; support for the most vulnerable, immobile populations; and people-led, democratic climate action.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Governance, and Mobility
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
192. An Analysis of Local Authority Debt and Arrears in Zambia
- Author:
- Mbewe Kalikeka, Sydney Sihubwa, Liana Chikwekwe, Jones Bowa, Muchimba Sarah Siamachoka, and Mwelwa Banda
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
- Abstract:
- The research study examines the financial health of local authorities and identifies opportunities to foster revenue generation crucial for service delivery at local level. It explores the accumulation of debt and arears for all 116 local Authorities in Zambia, analysing key factors contributing to financial strain and evaluating policy interventions aimed at enhancing fiscal sustainability.
- Topic:
- Debt, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zambia
193. Country Economic Transformation Outlook (CETO) Report for Zambia
- Author:
- Mbewe Kalikeka, Margret Mbewe, Joseph Phiri, Thomas Mwimba, and Ignatius Masilokwa
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
- Abstract:
- Country Economic Transformation Outlook Report Brief
- Topic:
- Development, Economy, Mining, and Middle-Income Countries
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zambia
194. Bitter Pill for Brussels? Trump’s Fight with Irish Pharma
- Author:
- Oskar Fairbairn, Lena Fiedler, and Aoife Hanley
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- Around 60% of Irish net exports to US are pharma products. Charging a 200% US tariff would devastate all EU exports, not just Ireland’s. Still, business leaders in Ireland are confident that pharma’s competitiveness will help it survive.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Multinational Corporations, Exports, Trade, and Pharmaceuticals
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, Ireland, and United States of America
195. An Alliance for Open Trade: How to Counter Trump’s Tariffs
- Author:
- Julian Hinz, Keith Head, Isabelle Mejean, Emanuel Ornelas, and Moritz Schularick
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- Trump’s renewed tariffs on traditional allies—including the EU, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil—signal a return to aggressive protectionism, openly disregarding WTO rules and threatening the stability of the global trade system. The authors argue that unilateral retaliation by individual countries is unlikely to be effective; instead, only a coordinated response by a broad coalition of affected nations—such as the EU, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and South Korea—can exert meaningful economic pressure on the United States. This policy brief proposes that such a joint response should remain WTO-compliant, target politically sensitive sectors of the U.S. economy (including automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture), and be framed not as punitive, but as a principled defense of the rules-based international trade order. Timely and coordinated action is critical, as further delays risk deepening fragmentation and inflicting long-term damage on the multilateral trading system.
- Topic:
- European Union, Economy, Tariffs, Free Trade, Trade Policy, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
196. Transatlantic Ties beyond Goods Trade: Significance and Policy Implications of EU-U.S. Services Trade
- Author:
- Frank Bickenbach, Holger Görg, and Wan-Hsin Liu
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- Trade in services is an important component of international trade and is becoming increasingly more important with growth rates exceeding the rates with which goods trade increases. This is also true in the bilateral U.S. – EU relationship: Trade in services, and especially trade in digitally deliverable services, is a highly important element of the economic relations between the U.S. and the EU. And it is growing much faster than goods trade between the two economies. Despite its importance, trade in services has received much less attention in political and public discussions on the transatlantic trade relationship – even beyond the current narrow focus on the U.S. goods trade deficit. Against this background this policy brief attempts to explore major developing trends over time in EU-U.S. services trade in general and EU-U.S. trade in digitally deliverable services in particular. In addition to services trade, we analyze the development of services supplied by affiliates of U.S. multinationals in the EU and of those supplied by EU affiliates in the U.S. We provide policy suggestions based on data-driven insights derived from the analysis.
- Topic:
- Globalization, European Union, Services, Trade, Digitalization, and Transatlantic Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe and United States of America
197. Trade Wars and Currency Wars – Lessons from History
- Author:
- Kris James Mitchener and Kirsten Wandschneider
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- Explaining President Trump’s “Liberation-day” tariffs on April 2nd, 2025, Stephen Miran, President Trump’s chairman of the council of economic advisors suggested that countries accept the U.S. tariffs without retaliation to come to a fair “burden sharing”(Miran: 2025). History shows that this assumption is wrong: using a detailed data set of bilateral trade flows constructed for the interwar period, this column shows that in fact the US faced substantial and widespread retaliation from trade partners in response to the U.S. Tariff Act of 1930 (i.e., the Smoot-Hawley Tariff). U.S. exports to retaliating countries fell by as much as 33%, with U.S. trade partners specifically targeting high-end, branded consumer products, such as U.S. autos. The drop in trade contributed to the Great Depression, which in turn triggered a large currency war: between 1929 and 1936, 70 countries devalued their currencies relative to gold. We show that trade was further reduced by more than 21% following devaluation. The currency war destroyed the trade-enhancing benefits of the global monetary standard, ending regime coordination and increasing trade costs. The 1930s are a potent reminder of what can happen when international policy coordination breaks down and countries go it alone when negotiating trade and exchange-rate policies.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, Tariffs, Trade Wars, Trade Policy, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
198. The consequences of the Trump trade war for Europe
- Author:
- Julian Hinz, Isabelle Mejean, and Moritz Schularick
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- • Using the KITE model suite, we study the economic costs of the Trump tariff policy for Europe, and analyze the potential for trade diversion from China. • If the current tariff regime stays in place, trade between the U.S. and China would fall dramatically, hurting mainly the U.S. and the Chinese economies. The direct economic impact for Europe appears limited. • The expected rerouting of Chinese and U.S. exports to third countries is likely to intensify competition between European and Chinese producers in key markets. European consumersstand to benefit from lower prices.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, North America, and United States of America
199. Ukraine Aid: How Europe Can Replace US Support
- Author:
- Giuseppe Irto, Ivan Kharitonov, Taro Nishikawa, and Christoph Trebesch
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- We study how Europe could replace US support for Ukraine both (i) financially, in terms of the fiscal effort required, and (ii) militarily, in terms of weapon production. Financial effort: The financial challenge of replacing US aid is limited. Currently, European governments are spending just 0.1% of their annual GDP on bilateral aid for Ukraine - a minor effort. To replace US aid flows and keep total support at the same level: Europe needs to double its yearly support to an average level of 0.21% of GDP. This is less than half of what Denmark and the Baltics are already doing and on a level of what Poland and the Netherlands do. In short: Europe as a whole would need to follow Scandinavia’s or Poland’s example. In absolute terms (billions of Euro), the biggest European countries and the EU Institutions will be decisive. To replace US aid and get to 0.21% of GDP, Europe as a whole needs to increase its yearly aid flow from currently €44 bn per year to €82 bn per year. The biggest donors for that effort will be the EU institutions (Commission and EIB), who will need to increase their annual support from currently €16 bn to €36 bn per year. Next comes Germany (from currently €6 billion to at least €9 billion per year), then Great Britain (from €5 to €6.5 bn per year), then France (from currently just €1.5 bn to €6 bn per year), Italy (from currently just €0.8 bn to €4.5 bn) and Spain (from just €0.5 bn to €3 bn per year). All remaining European donors would need to move from €14 bn to €16.5 bn per year. To avoid freeriding, we recommend offering financial incentives to those countries giving aid to Ukraine. Big Ukrainian donors (in % of GDP) could get priority access to any new EU-level defense financing scheme. Large Ukraine aid could also be exempt from EU fiscal rules, or deducted from each nation’s contributions to the EU budget. Military effort: On military aid, replacing the US will be more challenging, but is possible in many domains. We show weapon-by-weapon that Europe’s industry has viable alternatives for almost all of the main US heavy weapon systems donated to Ukraine. Europe also accelerated ammunition production and this effort would now need to be intensified at greater speed and scale, especially for howitzer ammunition. Our data show that the biggest dependency from US-produced weapons is in (i) rocket artillery such as HIMARS (86% of weapons for Ukraine are US-produced systems), (ii) Howitzer ammunition (82% US produced), (iii) long-range anti-aircraft systems such as Patriots (70% US produced). In other domains, European weapons play a more important role, in particular regarding Howitzers and battle tanks. Among the heavy weapons, US HIMARS and Patriots are hardest to replace, as is the supply of ammunition for these systems. Also, US intelligence sharing and satellite imagery are decisive. To respond to these challenges: Europe needs to ramp up the production of essential weapons and artillery ammunition quickly and broadly. It is advantageous that European donors already transited away from donating from stocks to procuring new weapons for Ukraine from industry. These procurement efforts would need to be extended considerably by making firm medium- and long-term commitments to weapon-producing firms. For US weapons that are hard to replace, Europe could place orders in the US and beyond. Viable alternatives to HIMARS include the South Korean K239 Chunmoo and Israel’s PULS. In addition, Europe could heavily invest in the development and production of alternative systems such as SAMP/T. European countries could also increase drone production considerably, both by European producers, and, more importantly, by directly investing in the highly successful weapons industry of Ukraine. Finally, Europe would need to move fast to build alternative digital, satellite, and intelligence systems, including accelerated and expanded initiatives such as the satellite internet constellation IRIS2.
- Topic:
- Foreign Aid, Arms Trade, Fiscal Policy, Military Aid, Geoeconomics, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
200. How to Finance Europe’s Military Buildup? Lessons from History
- Author:
- Johannes Marzian and Christoph Trebesch
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- Europe must rapidly increase its military spending, but how? We collect 150 years of data to study what governments in similar situations have done. How were past military buildups financed? What was the relative importance of debt financing, budget cuts, and taxes? Our main finding is that budget cuts, e.g. on social or foreign affairs, were rarely used to finance military buildups. Instead, governments typically relied on a mix of deficit financing and higher tax revenues. The larger the buildup, the more dominant debt financing has been. In line with history and theory, Germany and Europe should again rely on debt financing to quickly increase its defense spending and military capabilities. To deal with the added debt burden in the medium run, governments could increase taxes, reduce subsidies and tax avoidance, and freeze the growth of social spending. Fiscal rules must not stand in the way of the defence of Europe. A warning example is the case of the UK in the 1930s, which refrained from significantly ramping up military expenditure and instead pursued a policy of balanced budgets and appeasement. Consequently, the UK was ill-prepared when Nazi Germany launched its attack. Germany should not repeat the errors made by Britain in the 1930s and should invest heavily in defense so as to deter Russia. To achieve this, defense spending should be excluded from fiscal rules both in Germany and Europe. A less clear-cut alternative would be the creation of new debt funds, such as a European financing mechanism or another "Sondervermögen" in Germany.
- Topic:
- Economic Growth, Military Spending, Innovation, Geoeconomics, Fiscal Multipliers, Rearmament, and History
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Germany, and United States of America