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131. The End of Uganda’s Refugee Model, or Just a ‘Transition’?

Author:
Kristof Titeca and Roos Derrix
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Uganda is lauded world-wide as a model for refugee-hosting: It hosts nearly 1.7 million refugees, the highest in Africa, taking in refugees from its neighbouring countries. It also offers them free access to a plot of land, as well as public services. This refugee model is however under severe pressure, due to reduced donor funding. This is largely for political and ideological reasons: donor are increasingly unwilling to finance a protracted crisis such as a Ugandan one; a process which was further accelerated by the outbreak of major humanitarian crises such as Ukraine and Gaza. In this context, funding for the Ugandan refugee crisis is shifting from humanitarian to development funding, but for now without any major donor willing to foot this bill. This situation shows a major friction in the geopolitical status(es) of the country: on the one hand, it is a key-ally for the West as a ‘regional host country’, in which refugees can be hosted in their home regions, and are prevented from migrating to the West. On the other hand, Uganda is experiencing rapid democratic backsliding, manifested by measures such as the brutal anti-gay law or skyrocketing corruption, making continued engagement difficult – including for the much-lauded refugee model.
Topic:
Migration, Refugees, Crisis Management, and Donors
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

132. Modi III and the EU, after the Elections

Author:
Jan Luykx
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The May elections in India and the June elections for the European Parliament have resulted in leadership-continuity in Delhi and in EU-Brussels. Does this mean that Europe can expect ‘more of the same’ from the new Indian government and vice versa? Will the EU and India take the opportunity of this new start to re-engage in a more significant way than they have done during the last couple of years? Will they be able to identify common interests, and more importantly, act upon them?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Narendra Modi, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, South Asia, and India

133. The EU Joint Communication on the ClimateSecurity Nexus One Year On

Author:
Eleonora Milazzo
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
To mark one year since the adoption of the Joint Communication on ‘A New Outlook on the Climate and Security Nexus’ in June 2023, last summer the Belgian Presidency of the EU and the Egmont Institute, together with the EEAS, organised a workshop to take stock of the progress in its implementation. The conclusions reached during the workshop indicate that the Joint Communication has consolidated ‘climate and security’ as a key policy area. The broad approach of the Communication to climate change and environmental degradation, and peace, security and defence, ensures new thematic and operational connections – both at the global level and in specific local contexts. At the same time, in the next policy cycle, it is important to continue to support the operationalisation of this nexus across the whole spectrum of relevant policy areas including human security, conflict prevention, peace, and development and humanitarian action. To achieve this, it is fundamental to strengthen evidence use through existing tools, ensure necessary human and financial resources, devise localised solutions, and engage with a broad range of partners.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Migration, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe

134. No End in Sight? The West, China, and the Russo-Ukrainian War

Author:
Sven Biscop
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The West supports Ukraine as a non-belligerent. China purports to be neutral, but the West increasingly sees it as a non-belligerent on the side of Russia. In a way, the West’s and China’s approaches are not dissimilar: doing enough for “their” side to stop it from losing the war, but otherwise sitting it out in the hope that the other side will somehow give up. That can hardly be called a strategy. Both the West and China will have to review their strategies if they want to preserve their interests. Will this inevitably increase tensions between them?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Russia-Ukraine War, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eurasia, Ukraine, and Asia-Pacific

135. Russia’s Potential Alliance with Hizbollah: A Strategic Challenge for the EU in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:
Bernard Siman
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
One year on, the debate has been dominated by Israel, Hizbollah and the potential for regional war in the Middle East. An additional credible scenario has been worryingly absent: that in which Hizbollah and Russia cooperate, not necessarily to the exclusion of Iran as a third leg in a tripartite alliance. This scenario combines geography, history and geopolitics to bring Hizbollah and Russia closer together as a force to recon with. This is a possible development in the Southern Neighbourhood and the Levant that the EU needs to take seriously. Missing Russia’s potential move on Hizbollah could be an historic omission. The decapitation of Hizbollah’s chain of command that preceded the ground incursion, and Iran’s feeble reaction to the devastating assault on its Lebanese proxy, have created a new geopolitical vacuum and reality in the Eastern Mediterranean. Russia may spot an opportunity in the misfortunes of Hizbollah and move on a weakened prey. Will Russia’s direct influence return to Beirut for the first time since the 1770s when it occupied the city for a few months following the naval defeat of the Ottoman fleet at the battle of Cheshme? It is a distinct possibility, especially given Iran’s lukewarm military response, and one that the EU, and member states, must be prepared to deal with, if not pre-empt and prevent.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Non State Actors, Geopolitics, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Lebanon, and Eastern Mediterranean

136. Engaging in Fragile Settings: Acknowledging the Cost of Inaction

Author:
Thierry-Mehdi Benlahsen, Céleste Ricci, and Edouard Rodier
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
On September 30th, 2024, the Egmont Institute, the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), and the Centre for Humanitarian Action (CHA) convened a panel of experts from the humanitarian assistance, development, and peace sectors to assess the new working environment of the incoming European Commission and discuss its implication for the EU response to fragility. The discussion occurred days after the release of mission letters to Commissioners-designate, and provided an opportunity to assess how the EU, with its new structures and priorities, could sustain engagement in fragile contexts. This paper aims to restitute some of the findings and recommendations that emerged during the exchanges, focusing on pathways and instruments for more effective structural responses to fragility during this decisive period.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, State Engagement, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:
Europe

137. What’s Brewing in Benin? Security Collaboration in the Gulf of Guinea

Author:
Nina Wilén
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The Gulf of Guinea has drawn attention from Western states in recent years due both to increasing spillover of violent extremism from the Sahel and because of Sahelian military juntas’ shift of security partners from Western countries to Russian actors. Indeed, as three Sahelian states experienced five coups during the past years and gradually ousted their former security partners, starting with France, followed by the UN (in Mali) and the EU and the US (in Niger), the Gulf of Guinea countries’ relative stability and geopolitical positions have attracted new attention from external actors. Benin, neighboring both Burkina Faso and Niger, saw attacks by jihadist groups crossing the borders in the North of the country already in 2019. Although expanding relatively slowly, between 2021 and 2024, the number of attacks grew, forcing the government to invest more resources in counter terrorism efforts and reflect on more immediate ways to counter the expansion. Out of the Gulf of Guinea countries, Benin has so far been the hardest hit, and recorded a doubling in the number of recorded fatalities (to 173 deaths) over the past year. A figure which remains small in comparison to neighboring Sahel states, but which still indicates an increase. In spite of these attacks and the adoption in 2019 of a new electoral code limiting political opposition parties, Benin has remained relatively democratic and stable. Such stability has attracted old and new security partners to increase collaboration, both to counter terrorism and because of the expulsion from the Sahel countries. The US, France and Belgium have all intensified security collaboration with Benin over the past few years, while the EU has launched a new, regional CSDP initiative in the Gulf of Guinea. African states have also showed interest for Benin, with Rwanda offering to send troops bilaterally for counter terrorism purposes, similar to its operations in Mozambique. This policy brief aims to explore Benin’s security situation and international partnerships in the security domain, while identifying current and future challenges to such collaborations. The conclusion argues that Western and multilateral actors should maintain discrete collaboration but be cautious not to overburden Benin with their presence as absorption of new capabilities and capacities take time, and as a too heavy presence of Western security actors can become a burden rather than an advantage for the government. External actors should also continue to support recent efforts by the authorities to open up the political landscape to maintain its long-standing democratic tradition.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Partnerships, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, Sahel, Benin, and Central Africa

138. Geopolitics and Geography: A Realigned EU Strategy for Stability in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean

Author:
Bernard Siman
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The new EU Commission should commence its geopolitical thinking by acknowledging that geography is not kind to those who ignore her. The new European Parliament has the unique opportunity to become perhaps the first geopolitical parliament through a similar process. States, political leaders and societies ignore their geographic realities at their peril. Perceptions of location, distance and neighbourhoods can be dangerously distorted when they drift too far off from actual geographic realities. Digital technology, ease of air travel (bypassing the unpleasant geographic realities on the ground), combined with over three decades of peace in Europe, and 50 years in the Middle East, have created the distorted perceptions that somehow Israel’s and Ukraine’s neighbourhood was liberal Europe. These collective perceptions, untethered from their geographic realities, eclipsed perhaps the fact that both have neighbours with whom they have been at differing degrees of long-simmering conflicts. In reality, however, Israel and its neighbours have not succeeded at resolving the conflicts on its very borders, betraying the perception of peace. It is as if those neighbours with whom Israel has been in conflict had disappeared.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Political stability, and Geography
Political Geography:
Europe and Middle East

139. The Politics behind the EU-Rwanda Deal(s) and its Consequences

Author:
Kristof Titeca
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
On the 14th of October, the news emerged that the EU is in the final stages of a discussion to award €20 million to the Rwandan army for its operations in Mozambique – where it is fighting insurgents in the oil-rich Gabo Delgado province. It would be the second time in two years that the EU awards this amount under the European Peace Facility (EPF): it also did so in December 2022. At that time, the decision was met with anger in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), as it was already documented by the UN how the Rwandan Defense Forces (RDF) were supporting the M23 rebellion in Eastern DRC. In the meantime, this support has become clearer, with the last report from the UN Group of Experts from June 2024 extensively documenting the RDF operations with M23 in Eastern DRC. The news of potentially another €20 million is therefore met with anger in Congolese politics and society, primarily directed at the EU. It is a question which puzzles many: why does the EU want to award €20 million to the Rwandan army, in the midst of its violations of international law in Eastern DRC? This piece will unpack this question and reflect on the consequences for the regional dynamics and the EU.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, International Law, Politics, and European Union
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Rwanda

140. Why the BRICS Summit in Kazan should be a Wake-up Call for the EU

Author:
Reinhold Brender
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
This policy brief examines the growing influence of the BRICS in a multipolar world, as highlighted by their recent summit in Kazan, Russia, and the challenges to effective global multilateralism. Originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and later South Africa, the BRICS have recently expanded to include Ethiopia, Egypt, the UAE, and Iran. All BRICS members seek to reshape global governance to provide a greater voice for the Global South and strengthen South-South cooperation. However, internal divisions persist: China, Russia, and Iran view the BRICS as a platform to counter Western influence, while India, Brazil, and South Africa pursue ‘multi-alignment’ to diversify their global partnerships. This brief argues that, given the urgency of pressing global challenges, the EU should take the Kazan Summit as a wake-up call to develop and implement a strategy for engaging the Global South in the much-needed reform of global multilateralism. This effort is essential despite the reelection of Donald Trump as US President.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, European Union, Multilateralism, BRICS, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, Latin America, North Africa, and Asia-Pacific