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101. Identity Continuities, Far-Right Acquiescence, and the “New” and the “Old”: Finnish and Swedish NATO Accession and Neutrality

Author:
Erik Isaksson
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
With Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO, the number of neutral or non-aligned states in the EU has been reduced to three: Austria, Ireland, and Malta. How did Finland and Sweden’s shifts come about? What do these shifting neutrality – alliance membership constellations mean for the concept of neutrality, and for Austria’s position as a neutral state? This paper first examines the Finnish and Swedish debates pertaining to their own respective shifts, with particular attention to the far-right parties in those countries. It argues three things: first, contrary to most commentary, both the Finnish and Swedish policy shifts were underpinned by identity considerations, identities that remain largely the same under NATO membership as under non-alignment. Second, the far right’s acceptance of NATO membership has been a mix of opportunism and broadly engrained views of Russia. Third, par-ticularly in Sweden, neutrality has become seen as a thing of the past, and alliance membership as new and exciting, with possible implications for how neutrality is understood internationally. The paper then examines the state of the neutrality debate in Austria, with particular attention to the notion of neutrality as Austrian identity, the role of the FPÖ, and the potential risks for “neutral Austria” going forward. It concludes with a summary of the paper’s findings; a look at how neutrality in Austria, too, might increasingly be seen as an “old” concept; and by offering examples of how foreign policy con-cepts have been successfully reimagined in the past.
Topic:
NATO, European Union, Regional Integration, Neutrality, and Identity
Political Geography:
Europe, Finland, and Sweden

102. The New Geopolitical Formation in the Wider Horn of Africa: Consequences for Europe

Author:
Jan Pospisil
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The ongoing conflicts in Sudan, Somalia, and Ethiopia significantly destabilise the Wider Horn of Africa and impact the broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. These conflicts, rooted in fragmented statehood and exacerbated by internal ethnic, regional, and political divisions, threaten regional stability through increased migration and disruptions in the Red Sea. The conflicts are deeply internationalised, involving military engagements from neighbouring countries and attracting global powers due to significant geostrategic stakes. Traditional Western influences are waning. Instead, new actors like China, Russia, and various Gulf States are heavily engaged in the region. For Europe, the instability in the Horn of Africa presents urgent challenges, primarily related to migration, the security of maritime routes, and potential spillover effects in neighbouring regions like Egypt. Addressing these issues requires enhanced political engagement, addressing humanitarian needs, reforming peacekeeping efforts, and strengthening security cooperation. Europe’s response should be robust and coordinated, aiming to mitigate immediate threats and contribute to long-term stability in the region, reflecting the complexity of the intertwined interests and ongoing conflicts.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Political stability, Conflict, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Horn of Africa

103. Leveraging Charging Strategies to Reduce Grid Impacts of Electric Vehicles

Author:
Christine Gschwendtner
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Electric vehicles (EVs) can challenge or support electricity systems depending on how they are charged. Uncontrolled charging may strain electricity systems, e.g., by increasing peak demand in the evening,1 which may require cost- and emission-intensive infrastructure investments, such as grid reinforcements and peak generation capacity. In contrast, controlled charging can benefit electricity systems by providing flexibility,2 e.g., by shifting charging demand away from evening hours. Controlled charging that combines technical solutions with heterogenous EV user behaviors, supported by charging infrastructure at diverse locations, e.g., at work during midday, and incentives, can reduce peak demand to avoid grid constraints and support the integration of renewable energy.
Topic:
Environment, Natural Resources, and Electric Vehicles
Political Geography:
Global Focus

104. Sodium: An Alternative to the "White Gold" of the Energy Transition?

Author:
Nicola De Blasio
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
As the world transitions towards low-carbon energy systems, scaling up clean energy technologies will drive demand for critical minerals and metals, such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth elements. Stakeholders in the private and public sectors must work together to implement effective and efficient strategies, policies, and regulations to ensure that supplies are secure, reliable, sustainable, and equitable. Over the past years, the price volatility of minerals and metals has increased due to rising demand, supply chain disruptions, and concerns about tightening supplies. In addition, today’s markets are highly concentrated in a small number of countries. Although supply diversification investments are increasing, most near-term growth is expected from existing major producers, resulting in an even higher geopolitical risk.1 The transportation sector offers a stark example of these dynamics. Every year, the world increasingly relies on batteries. In 2022, electric vehicles (EVs) accounted for about 10 percent of global vehicle sales and are expected to reach 35 percent by the decade’s end.2 Announced policies around the world are accelerating these trends. For example, recent climate legislation in the United States is deploying billions into battery manufacturing and incentives for EV purchases.3 Lithium-ion batteries, a technology also used in computers and cell phones, power most EVs today. Typical of innovation cycles, years of development and deployment have resulted in significant cost reductions and improved performances. Today’s EVs are becoming increasingly competitive with internal combustion vehicles and can be driven for hundreds of kilometers between charges. Lithium is used in EVs because it is lightweight, has high energy densities, is relatively low maintenance, and can be repeatedly charged. From a market and geopolitical perspective, analysts estimate that lithium demand will increase tenfold before the end of this decade.4,5 In 2021, China dominated lithium global markets with 79 percent of all lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity; this figure is expected to decrease slightly to around 65 percent by 2025 (see Figure 1).
Topic:
Environment, Natural Resources, Lithium, Batteries, Electric Vehicles, Energy Transition, and Sodium
Political Geography:
Global Focus

105. How Multimodal AI Could Retool Global Crisis Response

Author:
Ben Ellencweig, Jessica Lamb, Jon Spaner, and Mihir Mysore
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Imagine this future scenario: as a hurricane develops, both its intensity and the timing of landfall are recalculated every hour on desktop-grade computers. The nature of the impact, including noncorrelated crises that may occur and second-order effects of the hurricane, are modeled through multiple scenarios on city-scale digital twins that have property-level granularity. The output of these simulations results in a clear set of trigger-based action plans that are tailored, verified through human-in-the-loop mechanisms, and sent to emergency responders, community leaders, government agencies, and potentially even residents in affected areas. Community leaders have access to tools that allow them to understand what to expect, what resources to leverage, and what actions may make the most difference. Homeowners receive targeted suggestions of how to protect their assets, avoid falling victim to fraud, and navigate post-disaster support. Disinformation campaigns get countered by fact-based automated outreach.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Crisis Management, Artificial Intelligence, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

106. The African Union's contested role in advancing gender equality

Author:
Karmen Tornius
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The African Union (AU) has put forth significant initiatives addressing gender equality issues on the continent but is confronted by concerns related to legitimacy, donor dependency and questionable impact on the ground.
Topic:
Development, African Union, Donors, Equality, and Gender
Political Geography:
Europe and Denmark

107. Energy as a weapon - decoding blackmail tactics in Europe

Author:
Veronika Slakaityte and Izabela Surwillo
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
‘Energy blackmail’ became a buzzword following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the subsequent energy crisis, but the phenomenon is not new. Energy blackmail has been employed by states to leverage their strategic energy resources for decades. In Europe, the weaponisation of energy predates Vladimir Putin’s time in Kremlin. Despite EU efforts to diversify its energy supply, the threat of energy blackmail persists, posing challenges not only to traditional energy dependencies but also to the increasingly digitalised energy sector.
Topic:
European Union, Energy, Russia-Ukraine War, and Natural Gas
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

108. Future Danish engagement with Africa: Insights and priorities for Denmark´s new Africa strategy from DIIS’ partners across the continent

Author:
Mary Boatemaa Setrana, Rahma Hassan, Faisal Garba, Mohamed Aden Hassan, Meron Zeleke Ersesso, Adam Moe Fejerskov, Nauja Kleist, and Mikkel Funder
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Remaking political relations with African countries has become a key priority for the Danish government, looking toward a future where Africa becomes of greater (geo)political importance to Denmark and Europe. To achieve this, Denmark is preparing a new plan for its future strategic engagement on the continent. Aiming to situate African countries closer to Denmark’s core foreign affairs, the plan is expected to address questions across the fields of foreign affairs, security, development, and trade, and focus on equal partnerships. The government has indicated a need to build on the mantra of ‘preaching less and listening more’ – as the Danish minister for foreign affairs framed it at a recent visit to Kenya – with political relations based on a ‘pragmatic idealism’ and more genuine forms of cooperation that reflect mutual interests. In this Policy Brief, some of DIIS’ African research partners consider key questions on what it takes to achieve equal partnerships, what a new Danish strategic engagement with Africa should look like, and what it should refrain from.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Engagement, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Denmark

109. EU technology resilience and autonomy

Author:
Flemming Splidsboel Hansen and Maria Mundt
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
In the face of growing international competition between both individual states and coalitions of states, the European Union is developing a new approach towards technological resilience and autonomy.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Autonomy, Resilience, and International Competition
Political Geography:
Europe

110. Somaliland at the centre of rising tensions in the Horn of Africa

Author:
Jethro Norman
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
On 1 January 2024, a surprise Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was announced between the self-declared breakaway Republic of Somaliland and Ethiopia. The deal allowed landlocked Ethiopia to lease 20 kilometres of Somaliland’s coastal land for naval and commercial purposes. In exchange, Ethiopia would be the first country to recognise Somaliland as an independent nation (later revised by Ethiopia to an ‘in depth assessment’ of recognition). The government of the Federal Republic of Somalia (FGS), which considers Somaliland part of its territory, called the deal a violation of its territorial sovereignty, a position supported by the EU and other international partners. In western Somaliland’s Awdal region, where the coastal land has been promised, there have been widespread protests. The Ethiopia-Somaliland deal has immediately increased tensions throughout the region. The timing of the agreement is significant as it occurred shortly after Somalia agreed to resume talks concerning Somaliland’s disputed constitutional status, putting an abrupt end to the dialogue. Regional blocs are already coalescing between those who support Somalia’s territorial integrity (notably Djibouti, Egypt and Eritrea) and those supporting Ethiopia (including the UAE and Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces). The possibility of a future war in the Horn is a real concern. Analysis has so far focused on Ethiopia’s expansionist actions, especially in light of a looming debt crisis and various internal conflicts, and support from the UAE, an influential regional player. However, it is unlikely that this deal would have been possible were Somaliland itself not already in crisis. Although the news of the agreement was met with celebration in the capital, Hargeisa, Somaliland is not approaching this deal from a position of strength. Since 2022, it has lost control of a significant portion of its eastern territory to pro-unionist forces who established their own administration, SSC-Khatumo. Internal unrest has also been brewing since 2022 due to delayed Presidential elections in Somaliland. Although President Muse Bihi Abdi has allowed clan elders to mediate the election-related disputes, the opposition remains skeptical as to whether elections will indeed occur by the end of 2024. The aim of the deal with Ethiopia is to restore the President’s reputation, and by extension Somaliland’s international reputation, contain domestic resistance, and revive its battered economy. Mediating between Somaliland, Somalia and Ethiopia is necessary, but not enough. Addressing the deep-rooted political crisis within Somaliland and clarifying its status in relation to Somalia are essential for finding a long-term solution to regional instability. Resolving the political status of both Somaliland and the newly established SSC-Khatumo should be a top priority in achieving long-term stability in the Horn.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Development, Diplomacy, International Organization, Migration, Non State Actors, Fragile States, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa, Somalia, and Horn of Africa