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Begin New Search Content Type Policy Brief Publication Year within 3 Years

2241. China and the Persian Gulf in the Aftermath of a U.S. Withdrawal

Author:
Steven Simon
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
• Given longstanding U.S. economic ties to the Arab Gulf states, the withdrawal of the U.S. military would not mean the United States is departing from the region. Even if it did signify that, however, China would be unlikely to fill the vacuum. A U.S. decision to maintain a military presence in the region should therefore not be based on fear of a strategic vacuum that China will fill to America’s disadvantage. • The United States should leverage China’s interest in stable cross–Gulf relations by working in tandem with Beijing to encourage dialogue and confidence-building measures. • The United States should monitor Chinese military deployments to the Indian Ocean and work with Gulf partners to set limits on China’s military use of air and naval bases. This would serve as a confidence-building measure and ensure that the Gulf does not become an arena for competition amid heightened Sino–American tensions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Military Affairs, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Persian Gulf, and United States of America

2242. Climate Change: The Greatest National Security Threat to the United States

Author:
Anatol Lieven
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
Climate change presents threats to the United States and the wellbeing of its citizens that dwarf those from Russia, China, or Iran. U.S. government policies and priorities should be reoriented accordingly. The necessary policy changes are these: • U.S. strategy toward China should be crafted and focused with a view to making sure tensions between the two countries do not impede international action against climate change. A zero-sum relationship between the great powers will ensure continued prioritization of manageable military threats over existential climate perils. This is precisely the policy framework that must be superseded. • Spending on efforts to limit climate change and mitigate its effects should take precedence over military spending, especially on new, vast, and nonessential programs such as the upgrading of America’s nuclear forces, which are already much larger than nuclear deterrence requires. • International aid should be increased and redirected toward building resilience against climate change in endangered countries, especially, but not only, in Central America. • The United States should seek opportunities to work with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, to improve climate resilience in Asian and African countries. • The United States should maintain cooperation and trade with China in the area of renewable energy technology.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, National Security, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

2243. 2021 Small Arms Trade Transparency Barometer

Author:
Elodie Hainard and Olena Shumska
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
The 2021 edition of the Small Arms Trade Transparency Barometer—which scores the transparency of top and major exporters’ reporting on authorized arms trade activities carried out in 2018—finds Switzerland to be the most transparent small arms exporter. Countries scored an average of 12.61 points out of a maximum of 25, which is a slight increase of last year’s score (12.36). The most transparent countries are, in descending order: Switzerland (21.75 points), the Netherlands (21.00), Germany (20.25), Serbia (19.75), and the United Kingdom (19.50). Meanwhile, North Korea (0.00 points), Iran (0.00), Saudi Arabia (0.50), and Israel (3.00) remain the least transparent countries in terms of arms trade activities.
Topic:
Weapons, Transparency, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe

2244. Democratization, Poverty Reduction and Risk Mitigation in Fragile and Post-Conflict States

Author:
Jamal Saghir and Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused the most severe recession in recent decades, with a cumulative loss to global GDP of around $9 trillion. Climate disasters continue to affect the most vulnerable populations and countries, affecting more than 50 million people in 2020. Investments in climate adaptation and resilience have been insufficient in recent years. Global investments only reached $30 billion in 2017-2018, against estimated needs in developing countries between $140 and $300 billion per year by 2030. As governments worldwide design and begin implementing post-pandemic economic recovery programs, investments in adaptation and resilience provide a unique opportunity to generate jobs, restart economic growth, and tackle the inequities made more acute by the pandemic. We discuss practical policy and program options to achieve these multiple objectives.
Topic:
Climate Change, Science and Technology, Infrastructure, Investment, Resilience, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2245. Increasing Access to Affordable Agricultural Microinsurance in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Brenden McKinney
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University
Abstract:
The effects of climate change are causing risk management to become an increasingly essential tool to help farmers anticipate and react to weather-related shocks like droughts and floods. When an efficient risk management system is implemented, it improves the standard of living of those who depend on farming, strengthens agricultural businesses, and supports investment; such a system can decrease the overall risk profiles of individuals and increase the confidence of farmers in their ability to take on risks that could improve their income. 1 While risk mitigation plays a key role in socio-economic development, the system must be affordable in order to successfully reduce poverty levels for those at the base of the economic pyramid.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, and Microinsurance
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

2246. Beyond Global Britain: A realistic foreign policy for the UK

Author:
Jeremy Shapiro
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The UK government’s vision for Global Britain aims to restore British greatness as a maritime trading nation. But this vision does not reflect today’s geostrategic realities, including the continuing importance of the EU. The Johnson government seems to need the perennial fights of a permanent Brexit, but this approach is eroding the UK’s capacity to cooperate with the EU on foreign and security policy. At the same time, as ECFR polling reveals, the British public do not have any particular animus towards the EU. While the public value British sovereignty and independence, they would support a foreign policy that worked cooperatively with the bloc. The public is on to something: Britain still has extraordinary assets and can forge an effective foreign policy. Yet, to do so, it must focus on British strengths, avoid military adventures in distant lands, and find balanced, effective working relationships with the EU and the US. British security and prosperity will increasingly depend on unromantic issues such as carbon tariffs and investment screening – on which the best way to protect British interests is to triangulate between the EU and US positions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

2247. It’s complicated: Russia’s tricky relationship with China

Author:
Kadri Liik
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Western policymakers are now asking whether Russia and China will join forces in an alliance of autocracies, and whether they have a chance to manage this challenge by drawing Moscow away from Beijing. Neither of these outcomes is likely in the short term: Russia has many reasons to maintain a cordial relationship with China, while policymakers in Moscow view rapprochement with the West as impossible or too politically costly. The Kremlin’s thinking on China is an amalgam of quickly developing trends that will determine Russia’s position in a world shaped by the US-China rivalry. While the West does not have an opportunity to prompt a policy U-turn in Moscow that divides Russia and China, it could give Russia space to hedge against China in key areas such as advanced technology.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Alliance, Ideology, Pragmatism, and Autocracy
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and Asia

2248. 2021 Resource Governance Index: Lebanon (Oil and Gas)

Author:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Assessed for the first time, Lebanon’s governance of its nascent oil and gas sector scored 53 out of 100 points in the 2021 Resource Governance Index. While Lebanon is not yet an oil and gas producer, its government has begun to establish an institutional framework to govern the sector before production begins. Lebanon received a “satisfactory” score of 73 points in terms of its ability to realize value from its sector according to the RGI, with the Lebanese Petroleum Administration (LPA) displaying signs of best practice in terms of extractive sector transparency. Nonetheless, “weak” revenue management and a “poor” enabling environment are causes for concern for the future of Lebanon’s resource governance.
Topic:
Corruption, Oil, Natural Resources, Governance, and Gas
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

2249. Oil and Gas in Lebanon: Time to Rethink Expectations

Author:
Aaron Sayne and Laury Haytayan
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Lebanon’s hopes of “entering the club of oil producers” have not materialized. After almost a decade of high expectations, the country still has no proven reserves of oil or natural gas. Instead, the one well drilled so far, by partners Eni, Total and Novatek, revealed only trace amounts of gas. Now the government has extended the companies’ deadline to explore until August 2022 and has postponed a second oil and gas licensing round. Lebanon needs a new, more realistic vision of what oil and gas can do for it. For years, politicians in Beirut have told the public that exporting fossil fuels would transform the country’s failing economy, and that generating electricity from gas would turn around its mismanaged power sector. In this briefing we do not try to predict the future—especially considering how fast conditions on the ground are changing. Instead, we offer an evidence-based warning about the wisdom of Lebanon staking its economic or energy future on oil and gas. The conclusions and observations are based on analysis of the current situation and on the experiences of fossil-fuel dependent countries and other prospective new producers. The current moment, though very painful, offers the country a chance to build a new energy strategy that it can start to implement when its economic and political fortunes improve. This strategy should realistically and sustainably meet people’s needs, rather than make them worse.
Topic:
Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, Economy, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

2250. 2021 Resource Governance Index: Azerbaijan (Oil and Gas)

Author:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Azerbaijan’s oil and gas sector scored 56 points out of 100 in the 2021 Resource Governance Index (RGI), up by nine points since the 2017 RGI. The country’s ability to realize value from the sector and its overall “enabling environment” deteriorated since the last assessment, but revenue management improved by 35 points and now places in the “good” performance band. Key messages: Governance of licensing received a “failing” 11 points, due to a lack of rules and disclosures in the licensing process, as well issues regarding disclosure of officials’ financial interests and identification of the beneficial owners of companies involved in the sector. The governance of local impacts received a “failing” score, with issues both in terms of the laws and disclosures of environmental and social impact assessments and environmental mitigation plans. SOCAR, the state-owned oil producer, scored in the lower end of the “satisfactory” performance band, with commodity sales rules and disclosures especially problematic. The implementation of fiscal rules and their monitoring boosted the national budgeting subcomponent score by 37 points since the 2017 RGI. SOFAZ, the country’s sovereign wealth fund, received a “good” score due to improvements in both the legal framework and disclosures.
Topic:
Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, Governance, and Gas
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Azerbaijan