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122. Reimagining peacekeeping in Africa and beyond
- Author:
- Peter Albrecht, Corine van Emmerik, Kwesi Aning, Nina Wilén, and John Karlsrud
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The ending of the United Nations (UN) peacekeeping mission in Mali in 2023, coupled with preparations for concluding the more than two decades-long mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in late 2024, signal a new trend in international peacekeeping: a move away from extensive, multidimensional missions towards more targeted and stabilisation-focused, often ad hoc, operations. These milestones in peacekeeping point to the need for UN member states, from both the South and North, to respond to the contemporary global landscape and conduct a thorough reassessment of the effectiveness of peacekeeping. The absence of any new, large-scale, multidimensional peacekeeping initiatives since such missions were deployed in South Sudan (2011), Mali (2013) and the Central African Republic (2014) further emphasises the uncertain future of peacekeeping. There is a growing recognition that these operations have failed to meet expectations and achieve their intended objectives of establishing lasting and equitable peace where they deploy. This realisation, together with a crisis of consent from host states, has led to waning confidence in and enthusiasm for such interventions among the international community. Alongside a declining belief in the ‘liberal world order’ primarily advanced by governments and practitioners in Europe and North America, this underscores a deep-seated change in the field of international peacekeeping. On the one hand there is a need to adapt and critically assess almost six decades of peacekeeping, as highlighted in the UN’s New Agenda for Peace, including the political and ideological basis upon which this form of intervention stands. Indeed, peacekeeping has not only attempted to respond to the changing nature of conflict, especially after the Cold War, it has also directly contributed to existing inequalities globally and represented an increasingly violent form of intervention from its traditional point of departure. On the other hand, with UN-led peacekeeping missions (possibly) phasing out, it is crucial to also critically analyze the new forms of intervention that are emerging. Their suitability for the diverse operational challenges encountered must be assessed, especially in Africa where most UN missions have been deployed, often led by the African Union (AU) or through ad hoc coalitions that sometimes operate beyond UN and AU mandates.
- Topic:
- Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Fragile States
- Political Geography:
- Africa
123. Bridging the gap in climate change financing to violent conflict affected areas
- Author:
- Justine Chambers and Helene Maria Kyed
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Countries affected by violent conflict are among the most vulnerable to climate change yet receive an extremely low share of global climate financing. This is despite the fact that most UN member states now recognise the interlinkages between climate change and violent conflict. The UN’s New Agenda for Peace also highlights ‘climate, peace and security’ as a crucial policy area. Upgrading climate change support to vulnerable populations in violent conflict-affected areas necessitates substantial changes to global climate financing. This is supported by the COP28 declaration on “Climate, Relief, Recovery and Peace”, signed by 91 UN member states, including Denmark, which also calls for enhanced conflict-sensitivity and more funds for local organisations.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Natural Resources, Non State Actors, Conflict, Instability, and Vulnerability
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
124. Europe's role in the Sahel
- Author:
- Christine Nissen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- A few years ago Africa’s Sahel region sat at the top of the EU’s foreign policy and security agenda. European member states were mobilising significant resources to address the security challenges of the region. This changed overnight on the 24th of February 2022 when Putin’s Russia invaded Ukraine and resurrected the spectre of conventional war on the European continent. From that day all Europe’s focus was directed to the Eastern threat, and European presence in the Sahel has since been scaled down. The Russian war in Ukraine is not the only reason why Europe is scaling down ambitions in the Sahel. Indeed, growing anti-Western sentiment amongst Sahelian governments and populations, and increasing resistance to European, and not least French, interference have made it challenging for European countries to stay engaged in the region. The Ukraine War and the European re-focus eastwards is symptomatic of the changing global order, which tells a broader story of European–African relations in crisis. The world is changing – and European governments are struggling to decide how to position themselves within it. In the short term Europe emerges as the primary loser due to its limited readiness to navigate this evolving landscape.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Non State Actors, Geopolitics, and International Order
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and Sahel
125. Climate-related losses and damages to social cohesion are overlooked
- Author:
- Lily Salloum Lindegaard and Francis Jarawura
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Climate change and related impacts – like forced migration and displacement – affect the social cohesion that is crucial for communities to function and thrive. Yet blind spots and misconceptions may misdirect response efforts.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Displacement, Social Cohesion, and Forced Migration
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ghana, and Niger
126. War volunteers in the digital age: How new technologies transform conflict dynamics
- Author:
- Jethro Norman
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Citizens traveling to participate in foreign wars have long posed significant challenges for states. The advent of smartphones and global connectivity has added new layers of complexity to this issue. With a particular focus on the conflict in Ukraine, this brief explores how digital technologies are reshaping the landscape of foreign participation in warfare.
- Topic:
- Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, Digital Technologies, and Volunteers
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine and Global Focus
127. Diaspora aid is crucial for emergency relief in the Somali regions
- Author:
- Nauja Kleist, Peter Albrecht, Mohamed Aden Hassan, and Karuti Kanyinga
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Somali diaspora humanitarianism alleviates suffering and saves lives in the Somali regions that are affected by conflict, poverty and natural disasters. Its absence would exacerbate crises and significantly limit the impact of formal assistance.
- Topic:
- Development, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, Natural Disasters, Diaspora, Fragile States, Economy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somalia
128. Climate migration amplifies gender inequalities
- Author:
- Sofie Henriksen, Sine Plambech, Kolja Dahlin, and Benedikte Raft
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Nepal is one of the countries in the world most vulnerable to climate change. International labour migration has become a strategy to secure funds to protect against the consequences of climate change, but for women it is not so simple.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Migration, Poverty, Labor Issues, Women, Inequality, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Nepal
129. An analysis of the impact of Turkish attacks on Syria on future normalization efforts between the two nations
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- In a televised address after a Cabinet meeting on January 16, 2024, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan confirmed his country's commitment to eliminating what he referred to as "terrorist hideouts" in Syria. These areas extend from Tel Rifaat to Ain al-Arab, and from Hasakah to Manbij. Erdogan stressed, “Our military presence beyond our borders is critical to the national security of our country and for the peace of our citizens. There’s no turning back from this.”
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, National Security, Syrian War, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Normalization, Rapprochement, Bashar al-Assad, and PKK
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
130. Analyzing the repercussions of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger's withdrawal from ECOWAS
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- On January 28, 2024, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso declared their immediate withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in response to the stringent economic sanctions levied by the 15-member regional bloc following recent military coups. This move has sparked widespread speculation regarding its impact on the ECOWAS’ function, as well as the security and political landscape in the Sahel and West Africa.
- Topic:
- Politics, Sanctions, Regional Security, and ECOWAS
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso
131. Is Somalia about to replicate the Afghanistan scenario post-withdrawal of the "ATMIS” forces?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- On February 10, 2024, the Gordon military base in Mogadishu was subjected to a terrorist attack by the jihadist Al-Shabab group. The attack resulted in the deaths of several officers performing training tasks for Somali forces, indicating a recent increase in the intensity of Al-Shabab's terrorist activity. This coincides with the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia’s (ATMIS) announcement that it declared the completion of the second phase of withdrawal of its forces from Mogadishu in early February. The remaining stages, which are expected to be implemented by the end of this year, have been raising concerns about the possibility of a new Afghanistan scenario in the Horn of Africa region.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Al Shabaab, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somalia
132. What Dilemma is Hampering Japan’s Rise to a Major World Power
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- On January 1, 2024, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida vowed to propel Japan to the forefront of the international arena amongst nation-states that have a proactive role in key global affairs and issues. In his New Year's address, Kishida affirmed that he will “exert leadership unique to Japan" through summit diplomacy to "overcome challenges," citing issues such as Russia's war on Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict. The Prime Minister’s comments come on the back of official figures released on February 15, 2024, showing that Japan’s economy has slipped to fourth place after being replaced by Germany as the world’s third largest economy. India is projected to overtake both Japan and Germany and become the world's third-largest economy during the current decade. Between Japan's aspirations to become a major global player and its evident economic decline, there are lingering questions about the obstacles it faces in transforming into a significant influential force in a world moving towards multipolarism.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Leadership, Economy, and Emerging Powers
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia
133. Analyzing how rampant organized crime is impacting Latin America’s stability ?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The ongoing violent tensions engulfing some Latin American countries, starting with Ecuador in the east and extending to Haiti in the Caribbean in the west, raise questions about the motives behind the growing illicit activities of organized crime across the continent. Those activities include drug production and trafficking, human trafficking, arms smuggling, and others. Such transnational crimes pose security threats and challenges to the countries of the region and neighboring states, foremost among them the United States, which has historically regarded Latin America as its backyard, allowing no one to approach the continent or interfere in its affairs without prior permission.
- Topic:
- Crime, Political stability, Violence, Organized Crime, Gangs, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Haiti, and Ecuador
134. Forecasting Chinese expansion into Central Asia
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- In early April 2024, China signed a two-year enhanced security cooperation agreement with Uzbekistan, which was reached during a meeting between Chinese Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Interior Minister Pulat Bobojonov in Tashkent. Some believe this pact was prompted by escalating international and regional competition for Central Asia, mainly because it came amid moves by international and regional powers in the five countries. Moreover, as China expands activities in this region to capitalize on cooperation potentials and opportunities, its influence in the five Central Asian countries, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, is steadily rising, mainly encouraged by Moscow's preoccupation with its war in Ukraine. The development is raising questions about the future of China's presence in Central Asia in the coming years.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Strategic Competition, and Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- China, Central Asia, and Asia
135. The role of artificial intelligence in modern warfare
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The use of artificial intelligence technologies in various armed conflict arenas, such as the Russian-Ukrainian war and the Israeli war in Gaza, has sparked numerous discussions about their nature, risks to international and regional security, and the sustainability of the conflict. These experiments have shown that weapons supported by artificial intelligence can be more accurate than those directed by humans, which can potentially reduce collateral damage, including civilian casualties, damage to residential areas, and the number of soldiers killed or injured. However, it also raises concerns about the possibility of committing disastrous mistakes.
- Topic:
- Artificial Intelligence, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, 2023 Gaza War, and Warfare
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
136. What Future Awaits Pakistani-Afghan Relations?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The ruling Taliban in Afghanistan rejected, on May 12, 2024, a scheduled visit from a Pakistani military delegation to the Afghan city of Kandahar, the headquarters of Taliban leader Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada. The visit aimed to discuss border management and the Pakistani branch of the Taliban (Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan, TTP). The cancellation of the visit followed Islamabad's drone and missile attacks on Paktika province in southeastern Afghanistan. Earlier, on March 18, 2024, Pakistani forces carried out airstrikes on the Afghan provinces of Khost and Paktika in response to a deadly attack by the Tehreek-e-Taliban's security forces in North Waziristan. This indicates the ongoing tension marring relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan since the Taliban took power in Afghanistan in August 2021.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, Taliban, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia
137. Could the Territorial Dispute Ignite Conflict Between Venezuela and Guyana?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- On May 5, 2024, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro announced the presence of US military and intelligence bases in the Essequibo region, a disputed territory between Venezuela and Guyana. This announcement marks a new escalation in the ongoing dispute over the region, which has gained significant importance following recent major oil discoveries.
- Topic:
- Security, Oil, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- South America, Venezuela, Guyana, and Essequibo
138. Motives for the Resurgence of the Sadrist Movement in Iraq
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The Sadrist Movement has recently increased its activities throughout Iraq, hinting at a possible return to the country's political landscape. This development follows the movement's vow to boycott the political process in July 2022.
- Topic:
- Elections, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Muqtada al-Sadr
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
139. How does the attempted assassination of Trump affect the American political landscape?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- On July 13, 2024, former U.S. President and current presidential candidate Donald Trump faced an assassination attempt during an election rally in Pennsylvania. This incident occurred just days before the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where Trump is anticipated to be officially nominated as the party’s candidate for the November elections. The attempt resulted in Trump being grazed by a bullet on his ear. Following the incident, he posted on his "Truth Social" platform: "A bullet grazed the upper part of my right ear." The Secret Service announced in a statement that one attendee was killed, two others were critically injured, and the assassin was also killed. It is important to note that this is not the first instance of a failed assassination attempt on Trump. Each attempt came perilously close to succeeding, but the assailants were thwarted at the last moment.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Assassination
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
140. Why has the Global Demand for Uranium Increased Recently?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- As the world transitions to electricity to combat climate change, nuclear energy is poised to become an increasingly vital component of the global energy mix. New nuclear power projects have recently reached unprecedented levels, with more than 20 countries pledging to triple global nuclear capacity by 2050. China alone plans to construct at least 150 new reactors in the next 15 years, investing over USD 440 billion. India has also announced ambitious plans to increase its nuclear capacity from 6,780 megawatts to 22,480 megawatts by 2031. This surge in nuclear energy development persists despite several factors complicating the rise of uranium as a coveted metal. Chief among these are: the significant and steady decline in investment in uranium exploration and mine development over the past decade, particularly following the Fukushima incident in 2011; governments' focus on solar and wind energy; and the recent Western sanctions imposed on Russia, which have complicated the process of importing Russian uranium (especially with a complete ban on imports to the United States). Additionally, high inflation and interest rates have led to increased costs for new and existing uranium mining projects. Furthermore, conflicts in Niger have resulted in the loss of 5% of the world's uranium supply, representing more than 24% of the European Union's uranium imports.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Uranium, Nuclear Energy, and Green Transition
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus