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Begin New Search Content Type Policy Brief Publication Year within 10 Years Publication Year within 5 Years

301. Decoding China’s Technology and Industrial Policy: Seven Terms You Need to Know

Author:
Barry Naughton, Siwen Xiao, and Yaosheng Xu
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
China’s technology and industrial policy programs have grown in scope and intensity since 2020, but the vocabulary used to describe them is vague and often misleading. This policy brief decodes seven essential terms and shows that they have concrete and complementary meanings. When understood in concert, they reveal the establishment of a large-scale, government-directed program of mission-oriented research, development, and application. Together these terms outline a substantial expansion of the Chinese government’s direct role in organizing economic activity, and hint at some of the limits of that expansion.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Research and Development, and Terminology
Political Geography:
China and Asia

302. The Quantum Race: U.S.-Chinese Competition for Leadership in Quantum Technologies

Author:
Juljan Krause
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
Quantum computing is poised to unleash innovation across various sectors, from materials science to pharmaceutical and medical research, finance, logistics, and even climate change management. Quantum computing also has the potential to provide the backbone for future artificial intelligence and autonomous systems that cannot be realized with digital hardware alone, while quantum communication can strengthen security in cyberspace. For these reasons, quantum technologies feature prominently in the emerging technologies race between the United States and China. In this policy brief, IGCC postdoctoral fellow Juljan Krause analyzes China’s advances in quantum communication, which aim to signal China’s technological leadership while protecting Chinese communications from foreign surveillance. He argues that Chinese leadership in quantum communication will have strategic repercussions, particularly as it is likely to give China’s efforts to shape global industry standards additional momentum. Even if quantum communication has no immediate military implications, policymakers should consider how the technology could embolden China further.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Quantum Computers
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

303. Decoding the Global Goal on Adaptation at COP28

Author:
Olivia Fielding
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
Although adaptation has historically received less attention than mitigation, finance, and more recently loss and damage, it remains a key aspect of climate action as we near the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C threshold. This paper discusses the agreement on a framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) as one of the most important outcomes of the twenty-eighth UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai, providing an overview of and key takeaways from the document. The final decision text contains language on long-term transformational adaptation, which was seen as a success by many developing countries. It also sets targets for a finalized list of thematic areas—a contentious subject and another success for many developing countries. These targets explain what success looks like, ultimately aiming for the high-level objective of well-being for people and planet, while leaving the details of achieving this objective to countries. The text also includes targets for the iterative adaptation cycle. In addition, there were a number of paragraphs on means of implementation, though many developing countries saw these as a failure, as they provide little new or significant language. The next step will be to develop indicators for the targets in the GGA framework. Ideally, the negotiators should set the strategic direction of this process while leaving the selection of indicators to experts. It will be important to keep the list of indicators short, account for data gaps, and draw on existing indicators to the extent possible. While there is much work to be done to give life to the GGA framework adopted at COP28, it has the potential to be the new guiding light for climate action.
Topic:
Climate Change, Adaptation, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

304. Gender Inclusion in the Pandemic Agreement: A Growing Gap?

Author:
Sara E. Davies and Clare Wenham
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
There is increasing evidence of the gendered outcomes and secondary effects of epidemics and pandemics. Women make up a disproportionate share of the healthcare workforce, absorb much of the additional unpaid labor during health crises, and are exposed to increased gender-based violence and insecurity around sexual and reproductive healthcare during pandemics, among other effects. A gender-sensitive approach to health emergencies is essential for pandemic preparedness, prevention, response, and recovery. Despite the World Health Organization’s (WHO) awareness of these impacts, it does not systematically consider them in its pandemic preparedness and response. WHO’s historical “add women and stir” approach is evident in the proposed amendments to the International Health Regulations (IHR), whose attention to gender focuses primarily on committee representation. Gender sensitivity is also limited in the drafts of the WHO Convention, Agreement or Other International Instrument on Pandemic Prevention, Preparedness and Response (CA+), currently in development. Gender-inclusive language in the CA+ is essential for effective international coordination to prepare, prevent, respond to, and recover from health emergencies. This paper examines the extent to which gender has been included in the zero-draft CA+ process through a desk review of the drafts that have been published (as of March 2024), focusing on explicit mentions of gender and women. The report documents the progress to date on integrating gender equality into the CA+ and offers the following recommendations for CA+ negotiators, WHO, and member states. Future drafts of the CA+ should have provisions that address a wider range of the gendered impacts of pandemics; WHO should develop an IHR/CA+ repository; INB negotiators should directly engage relevant UN entities to recommend methods of integrating gender into the CA+; States that claim to have a principled stance on gender equity should transparently champion gender-inclusive language; and The CA+ should consider and incorporate initial lessons learned from the implementation of the gender-inclusive language in the IHR’s Joint External Evaluation (JEE) of states.
Topic:
Women, Pandemic, Inclusion, WHO, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

305. Advancing Feminist Foreign Policy in the Multilateral System: Key Debates and Challenges

Author:
Evyn Papworth
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
Since the first feminist foreign policy (FFP) was adopted by Sweden in 2014, sixteen countries have either published an FFP or announced their intention to do so. Some proponents of FFPs have indicated that these policies can be a way to democratize and transform multilateralism, integrating feminist approaches and principles into multilateral institutions and leading to more inclusive and equitable outcomes. This requires seeing FFPs as not just a “women’s issue” but also as a way to reinvigorate an outdated and inequitable system through transformational change and the interrogation of entrenched power dynamics, including in areas such as trade, climate, migration, and disarmament. One obstacle to realizing the potential of FFPs is that there is no single definition of feminist foreign policy. Part of the challenge is that there are many interpretations of feminism, some of which reflect a more transformative, systemic approach than others. Ultimately, there is no single way to “do” feminism, and approaches to FFP should, and will, vary. If FFP is to survive and grow, it will encompass contradictions and compromises, as with all policymaking, and civil society and member states will have to collaborate to advance feminist principles in the multilateral arena. To explore the future of FFPs, the International Peace Institute, in partnership with the Open Society Foundations and in collaboration with the co-chairs of the Feminist Foreign Policy Plus (FFP+) Group, Chile and Germany, convened a retreat on Feminist Foreign Policy and Multilateralism in July 2023. Drawing on insights from the retreat, this paper discusses five ongoing debates that FFP-interested states should meaningfully engage with: Militarization, demilitarization, and the root causes of violence; Global perspectives and postcolonial critiques; The branding and substance of FFPs; The domestication of FFPs; and Accountability and sustainability.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Feminism, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

306. The changing dynamics of European electricity markets and the supply-demand mismatch risk

Author:
Conall Heussaff and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Meeting Europe’s 2030 climate targets will require massive clean-electricity investment. To facilitate these investments, state-backed de-risking schemes such as contracts for difference (CfDs) are needed. Their role in supporting renewables has been consolidated by the European Union’s recently agreed electricity market design reform. Under such state-backed schemes, the distribution of costs between the market and the state will depend on the balance of supply and demand. Lower demand will decrease spot-market prices, reducing market costs but increasing the cost to CfD-issuing states. If electrification of European energy demand does not keep pace with the electricity supply expansion, tens of billions of euros annually could be channelled through state contracts, generating costs that must ultimately be recovered from consumers. A cost-efficient, managed transition will require European coordination of electricity supply, demand and network investments. Clean electricity supply and demand should be synchronised through a combination of state interventions and market mechanisms. Undersupply of clean power will mean a failure to meet climate targets, but oversupply can be costly too. To manage the costs of renewable de-risking schemes and to accelerate energy-system decarbonisation, flexible electricity systems should be promoted, policies to encourage electrification could be implemented and cost-recovery arising from state-backed renewable support schemes should be fair.
Topic:
Climate Change, Markets, Electricity, Energy, and Supply and Demand
Political Geography:
Europe

307. Overcome divisions and confront threats: Memo to the Presidents of the European Commission, Council and Parliament

Author:
Maria Demertzis, André Sapir, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
In the last five years, the European Union managed to find its way through a series of major shocks, including the pandemic and the 2022 surge in energy prices. The response was in many ways remarkable, including unprecedented EU borrowing to fund the NextGenerationEU economic recovery programme and a coordinated reduction in energy demand. However, these crises have left the EU in a bruised state. The pandemic recession and energy-support measures have squeezed fiscal space. Higher energy prices have persisted and EU industrial competitiveness has been eroded. The productivity and per-capita income gap with the United States has widened. Meanwhile, the world around the EU has become more threatening and fragmented. The military situation in Ukraine remains precarious. China has become both more authoritarian and more assertive. The US shift toward protectionism has become entrenched. There is less consensus for measures to combat climate change. In the face of all this, the challenges confronting you are substantial. In the next five years, you must continue to support Ukraine while implementing measures to reinvigorate EU growth, meet the 2030 climate targets and lay the ground for meeting the 2040 goals, and secure faster emissions reductions beyond the EU’s borders. Social cohesion needs to be restored to head off threats to the EU model. More needs to be done to improve EU external security. Promoting growth and enhancing cohesion will entail further deepening of the single market in areas with the highest growth impact, doing more to support innovation and defending competition, openness and multilateralism. Safeguarding the European Green Deal means boosting green industrialisation and fair burden-sharing, while scaling up international climate finance. Strengthening security requires continued support for Ukraine and the addressing of economic security risks. Underpinning all of this, a serious effort must be made to improve EU governance – and it must be done without creating further division.
Topic:
Security, European Union, European Parliament, European Commission, Energy, Regional Politics, Competition, European Council, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:
Europe

308. How to finance the European Union’s building decarbonisation plan

Author:
Ugnė Keliauskaitė, Ben McWilliams, Giovanni Sgaravatti, and Simone Tagliapietra
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
By 2030, the European Union must reduce emissions from the heating and cooling of buildings – responsible for 13 percent of EU emissions – by the equivalent of the annual emissions of Slovakia. This requires a near tripling of the current decarbonisation rate. But the time gap between high upfront costs and long-term payback from renovation works deter consumers from investing in energy renovation. To address these challenges, the EU has introduced a policy toolkit that includes strengthened price signals against fossil-fuel heating through emissions trading, and setting energy-consumption reduction targets in the Energy Performance Building Directive (EPBD). EU countries must take the EPBD targets seriously and implement policies to accelerate building retrofits and the adoption of clean heating. If they don’t, there is a risk that EU climate targets will not be met, and the costs for households of subjecting domestic heating to emissions trading could be almost twice the higher costs seen during the 2022 energy crisis. We estimate that achieving the EPBD’s energy savings targets requires filling an investment gap of about €150 billion per year up to 2030. This is a daunting but feasible goal. By leveraging energy savings from electrification and retrofitting to reduce renovation costs, the investment gap could be more than halved. Additionally, effective use of EU funds and emissions trading revenues will further shrink the gap. A mix of grants, preferential loans and obligations is needed, as no single policy will speed up energy renovations. Prioritising grants for the worst-performing buildings, often occupied by vulnerable consumers, will yield climate benefits and benefits in terms of improved air quality, health, productivity, energy security and lower future government outlays to alleviate energy poverty. Traditional public subsidies have not successfully engaged the banking sector, which now must help to foster private-public financing mechanisms. Countries also need to adjust relative energy prices for heating through taxation and subsidies, and expand one-stop-shops to streamline the renovation process for consumers.
Topic:
European Union, Carbon Emissions, Decarbonization, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe

309. Re-energising Europe’s global green reach

Author:
Giovanni Sgaravatti, Simone Tagliapietra, and Cecilia Trasi
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The goals of decarbonisation, competitiveness and strategic autonomy will underpin the implementation of the European Green Deal during the 2024-2029 European Union institutional cycle. To strike the right balance between these sometimes conflicting objectives, EU policymakers should focus on both domestic and international aspects of the Green Deal. Domestically, they must ensure implementation of the agreed climate plan, avoiding inaction or delay. Internationally, they must establish a new green-diplomacy and partnerships strategy, which will support global decarbonisation while addressing competitiveness and strategic autonomy concerns. The current EU approach to green diplomacy is uncoordinated, lacking a clear strategy and appropriate resources. Given the EU’s limited share of annual global emissions, supporting decarbonisation abroad is fundamental to meet the global net-zero emissions goal. The EU’s green diplomacy and partnerships need to be strengthened and expanded in a pragmatic and coherent manner. The main priorities include focusing on the implementation of international emissions reduction pledges, a new diplomatic push for carbon pricing and international green taxation, the creation of streamlined partnerships for green industrialisation with major partner countries and the promotion of new global trade and climate agreements. To succeed in these, a revision of the current governance of EU global green action will be required.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Partnerships, Carbon Emissions, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

310. The implications of the European Union’s new fiscal rules

Author:
Zsolt Darvas, Lennard Welslau, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
European Union countries are required by the EU Treaty to keep their budget deficits within 3 percent of GDP, and their public debt within 60 percent of GDP. A new framework to enforce these rules is based on country-specific debt sustainability analyses (DSA) and uses a single indicator, a measure of public expenditure, as the annual fiscal policy target. These changes are welcome. To assess the sustainability of public finances, it is much better to focus on the likely evolution of the debt path than to rely on simple numerical rules. Public expenditures net of changes to tax policy are a far better target for fiscal policy than the deficit, since they are under the control of the government and cannot give rise to pro-cyclical fiscal policy (excess spending in good times, fiscal cuts in bad times). These features could increase the framework’s efficiency and improve compliance. However, the new framework also contains numerical safeguards to ensure a minimum pace of debt and deficit reduction. These might overwrite the DSA-based requirements and could undermine the rationale for the new rules and the incentives for compliance. The safeguards could also introduce some pro-cyclicality and, more importantly, could hold back increases in public investment. Our calculations show that the new framework will require ambitious fiscal adjustments from high-debt countries, though less than would have been required by the previous framework. Numerical safeguards will not be a significant constraint in the first application of the framework in 2024, except in the case of Finland. In the next application, in 2028, they imply for France and Italy greater fiscal adjustment than required by the DSA and the 3 percent benchmark. There is ambiguity about the consistency of the new fiscal rules and the largely-unchanged excessive deficit procedure (EDP), and whether proposed reforms and investment will influence the DSA. This could interfere with the successful application of the framework. We recommend that the EDP should require the same adjustment as the DSA, a method- ology should be developed to estimate the quantitative impact of proposed investments and reforms, and the DSA methodology should be revised. In case EU countries’ investment plans on aggregate do not fill the green public-investment gap, we recommend a new EU facility to foster such investments.
Topic:
Budget, European Union, Investment, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

311. The economic case for climate finance at scale

Author:
Patrick Bolton, Alissa M. Kleinnijenhuis, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
It will be impossible to contain the global temperature rise to 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels unless emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) decarbonise much more rapidly. This policy brief examines the economic case for advanced-country financial support for replacement of coal with renewable energy sources in EMDEs. Such conditional financial support is necessary in the sense that an exit from coal consistent with keeping the global temperature rise to between 1.5°C and 2°C will not happen without it, desirable from the perspective of the financier countries, and financially feasible. Although the global economic benefits of phasing out coal are very large, the costs of exiting coal generally exceed the benefits to EMDEs. However, the collective economic benefits to advanced countries greatly exceed those costs. These net benefits are positive even for small coalitions of advanced countries (G7 or G7 plus EU). The fiscal costs of financing the coal exit in EMDEs (without China) are modest as a share of G7+EU GDP at about 0.3 percent of GDP per year, assuming public-sector participation in renewable energy investment costs through blended finance of around 25 percent. Although providing climate finance to EMDEs is economically desirable and feasible from the G7 perspective, it is not happening at the necessary scale, partly because of incentives and political-economy challenges. Advanced countries are more likely to be willing to commit financing to climate action outside their borders if they have more control over how this money is spent. Developing countries are reluctant to phase out coal unless sufficiently large financial support is forthcoming for renewable investments that are consistent with their development goals. These problems could be overcome by tying renewable finance to a coal phase-out. Already-existing Just Energy Transition Partnerships with South Africa, Indonesia and Vietnam are prototypes of this approach. They should be scaled up, with sufficient grants to pay for coal closures and the social transition in coal communities, by explicitly conditioning funding on a coal phase-out and through a stronger governance structure to implement these deals.
Topic:
Climate Change, Emerging Markets, Climate Finance, Renewable Energy, Coal, Carbon Emissions, and Emerging Economies
Political Geography:
Global Focus

312. Three risks that must be addressed for new European Union fiscal rules to succeed

Author:
Lucio Pench
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The debate on the reform of the European Union’s fiscal rules, the Stability and Growth Pact, has largely focused on their design. This nearly exclusive focus has distracted attention from the equally, if not more, important aspects of implementation. The reform, completed in April 2024, left implementation unaddressed, or at least open to very different potential outcomes. In particular, the reform failed to clarify the interplay between EU countries’ medium-term fiscal structural plans (MTFSPs), which embody the new focus on debt sustainability, and the excessive deficit procedure (EDP), which remains the main enforcement tool under the rules. The need for clarification is urgent as several countries are set to enter EDPs for breaching the SGP’s 3 percent of GDP deficit threshold at the same time as their first MTFSPs are endorsed in autumn 2024. There is a risk that the adjustment paths prescribed by EDPs may be at least temporarily less demanding than the debt-sustainability requirements of the MTFSPs would normally imply. Even if consistency between EDPs and MTFSPs is ensured from the start, inconsistencies may arise over time and be resolved in a way that further postpones the necessary adjustment. The main risk is that the 3 percent of GDP deficit might be perceived as the only target that matters for countries that enter EDPs in 2024, as repeated revisions of the MTFSPs undermine the cogency of the debt sustainability requirements. This scenario is likely to materialise if the countries are allowed to exit their EDPs upon bringing their deficits to or below 3 percent of GDP, while being still far from the necessary correction of the debt trajectory. It is important to shape countries’ expectations on the implementation of the upcoming EDPs in a way that is conducive to the immediate internalisation of the debt sustainability constraint implied by the new rules, rather than allowing it to be viewed as a distant objective. This change in expectations could be achieved by clarifying that, even if a country has been placed in an EDP only for breach of the deficit criterion, it should also satisfy the debt criterion for the procedure to be abrogated.
Topic:
Debt, Reform, European Union, Fiscal Policy, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Europe

313. How to de-risk: European economic security in a world of interdependence

Author:
Jean Pisani-Ferry, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Pandemic-related supply disruptions, the energy crisis provoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and economic coercion by China have put economic security high on the European Union policy agenda. The question is how exactly the EU should ‘de-risk’ its external economic relationships without foregoing the benefits of trade. The standard answer is that it should identify product-level trade dependencies, mainly on the import side, and reduce them, mainly through diversification of suppliers, while otherwise maintaining maximum trade integration. This Policy Brief argues that this answer falls short. First, product-level dependencies cannot be identified reliably even with sophisticated analysis and data. As a result, both ‘missed dependencies’ and ‘false positives’ are inevitable. Second, external shocks and coercion could be propagated through exports, productive assets held abroad and financial channels as much as through imports. The analysis has five main implications Import de-risking should focus on a few product categories for which the costs of supply interruptions would be unquestionably large. This reduces false positives. De-risking and/or buffers to deal with exports and financial coercion require more attention. De-risking must be complemented by raising resilience against all shocks, whatever theirorigin. This requires a deeper and broader European single market. De-risking and resilience must be complemented by deterrence. A sufficiently high probability of chronic trade conflict – or one very large conflict – may justify reducing overall integration with a large trading partner, on both the export andimport sides. EU economic security policies have been right to emphasise the reduction of import dependence on chips and critical raw materials, and the creation of a powerful legal instrument to deter coercion (the Anti-Coercion Instrument). In most other respects, there is room for improvement.
Topic:
European Union, Risk, Trade, Imports, Economic Security, and Interdependence
Political Geography:
China and Europe

314. Broader border taxes: a new option for European Union budget resources

Author:
Pascal Saint-Amans
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
There is widespread agreement on the need for new resources to fund the European Union's budget in order to meet increasing spending demands, not least repayment of debt incurred as part of the EU’s post-pandemic economic recovery. In particular it is seen as desirable that the EU should have ‘own’ resources, or reliable ongoing revenue streams. But there is little agreement on what new own resources could consist of. Limited reform so far has led to the introduction of a levy paid by EU members depending on plastic packaging waste generated in their territory and not recycled. Meanwhile, the European Commission has proposed resources for the EU budget from emissions trading revenues, and from levies collected under the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). There proposals are pragmatic and move in the right direction, but do not go far enough. The debate about own resources should focus on whether the EU will be able to build genuine own resources based on common tax policies. The EU suffers from ‘tax leakage’ in which profits are shifted from high-tax to low-tax EU countries, and from there onto no or low-tax non-EU jurisdictions, often without the application of withholding taxes. It may not be too much of a stretch to compare this situation of tax leakage with the situation addressed by CBAM – a quasi-tax at the border. So far, an opportunity for what could be seen as a tax at the border of the internal market, aiming to protect the market from harmful competition, may have been missed. Such a tax could reflect the undertaxed profit rule agreed as part of the international deal on the corporate minimum tax. Focusing on protecting the revenues of EU members by common tax borders could offer scope for new own resources.
Topic:
Budget, European Union, Borders, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:
Europe

315. Ukraine’s path to European Union membership and its long-term implications

Author:
Zsolt Darvas, Marek Dabrowski, Heather Grabbe, Luca Léry, André Sapir, and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Whether and when Ukraine accedes to the European Union will depend greatly on how and when its war with Russia ends and post-war reconstruction starts, and how the EU handles issues of governance, security, migration, trade, investment, the energy transition, decarbonisation and the EU budget. The enlargement process is likely to overlap with post-war reconstruction, increasing the EU's influence in fostering Ukraine’s institutional development. Ukrainian leaders will have strong incentives to comply with the accession criteria, which the EU should use astutely to create a better-functioning economy and public institutions, especially by reducing opportunities for corruption. This will require clearer standards for rule-of-law and fundamental values, including effective tools to ensure continued compliance after accession. That is also the most effective way to ensure a positive impact of future enlargements on EU governance. The EU will also need to develop assistance programmes to help the Ukrainian government manage post-war external and internal security challenges, including the large number of weapons in circulation, and to encourage Ukrainian refugees to return to the country when possible, as they will be needed for the reconstruction effort. If the current EU budget rules were applied and there were no transitional arrangements – which is unlikely – we calculate the total annual cost of Ukraine's integration into the EU budget at 0.13 per cent of EU GDP, which would hardly change net recipient/payer positions of current EU members. Some of this funding would come back to the EU via EU companies participating in EU-funded projects in Ukraine. Ukraine’s entry into the EU would benefit EU GDP via trade, migration and foreign direct investment, boosting employment, production and tax revenues in the EU. The history of EU enlargement shows that the strongest motivation for difficult reforms is a credible and predictable accession process based on rewarding reforms. Both Ukraine and the EU would benefit from progressive integration of the country into EU policies, alongside the formal accession negotiations. That would show the Ukrainian public the tangible benefits of moving towards EU standards, while also bringing Ukraine into areas such as energy cooperation and decarbonisation.
Topic:
European Union, Regional Integration, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

316. The state of financial knowledge in the European Union

Author:
Maria Demertzis, Luca Léry Moffat, Annamaria Lusardi, and Juan Mejino Lopez
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Only one in two individuals in the European Union, on average, is financially knowledgeable. In response to a 2023 survey containing five questions assessing basic financial knowledge, only half of the respondents answered at least three of the five questions correctly. This represents a low level of financial knowledge and an obstacle for individuals to invest in financial markets. The questions most often answered correctly by respondents measured understanding of inflation and the relationship between risk and return. By contrast, only one in five respondents answered a question on the relationship between interest rates and bond prices correctly. Regarding inflation, there is a large difference between the least and most educated respondents in terms of answering the relevant question correctly. Gaps in understanding the concept of inflation are also evident between the youngest (18-24) and oldest respondents (55+) and between the poorest and richest households. A gender gap is present in financial knowledge, with 18 percentage points more men than women answering at least three out of five questions correctly, on average in the EU. Those with greater financial knowledge are less financially fragile in that they can still cover their expenses if there is a sudden loss of income, and are more confident that they will have sufficient funds to sustain themselves during retirement. Countries with higher proportions of people who are financially knowledgeable have higher numbers of people who both save with and borrow from financial institutions, an indication that financial knowledge may improve financial inclusion. All EU countries have, or are in the process of putting together, a national financial literacy strategy. There is an urgent need to roll out these strategies, to monitor progress over time and to establish best practices. Particular attention needs to be given to how financial knowledge interacts with digital skills as financial services are increasingly digitalised. Financial literacy strategies should also help close gender and other gaps in knowledge among vulnerable groups, and should ensure that financial education starts early and in schools.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Inflation, and Financial Literacy
Political Geography:
Europe

317. Unity in power, power in unity: why the EU needs more integrated electricity markets

Author:
Georg Zachmann, Carlos Batlle, Francois Beaude, and Christoph Maurer
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The energy crisis that started in 2022 reminded European governments of the resilience provided by relatively well-integrated European electricity markets, which have been painstakingly built-up over several decades. European Union leaders thus decided to reverse a creeping energy renationalisation and to invest in completing the internal market. However, there are some indications that this momentum is being lost, with different EU capitals taking different lessons from the energy crisis, at a time of unprecedented investment needs in generation and grids across the EU. The multiple benefits of enhanced EU energy-market integration should be emphasised. ‘Techno-economic’ benefits can be secured from optimising the design and operation of several national electricity systems jointly, rather than individually. These benefits will increase massively with higher shares of renewables and include less fossil-fuel burn and less volatile short-term prices, cost savings through harnessing regional renewables advantages, reduced need for expensive back-up capacity and flexibility, and enhanced resilience to shocks. In addition, greater energy-market integration will trigger benefits of a more managerial-governance related nature, though these are harder to quantify. They include benefits in terms of competition, innovation and credibility, which are particularly useful in the electricity sector, which typically faces rather long investment times and high degrees of concentration in purely national markets. Further market integration requires substantial political investment. Governments will need to deal with significant distributional effects within and between countries. Experience has shown that domestic political constraints in this respect are often numerous and difficult to overcome. Therefore, achieving the benefits of integration will require a vision on what degree of integration is feasible and desirable, and how to properly implement and govern it. It will also require an honest acknowledgement of the implications and costs of not pursuing greater integration.
Topic:
Markets, European Union, Regional Integration, Electricity, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

318. Smarter European Union industrial policy for solar panels

Author:
Ben McWilliams, Simone Tagliapietra, and Cecilia Trasi
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The European Union plans a major increase in solar PV capacity from 263 GW today to almost 600 GW by 2030. If nothing changes, this expansion will be based almost exclusively on solar panels imported from China, which supplies over 95 percent of solar panels used in the EU. This dependence has raised concerns about EU economic security and geopolitical vulnerabilities, especially in light of recent global disruption. The EU has agreed in principle a non-binding 40 percent self-sufficiency benchmark for solar panels and other identified strategic technologies, to be approached or achieved by 2030. However, for the solar sector specifically, there is no strong economic justification for an import-substitution approach. Such a strategy risks increasing the costs of solar panels, slowing deployment and creating industries that are over-reliant on subsidies. EU solar manufacturing subsidies are not appropriate based on criteria of European production alone. Subsidies could, however, be justified on innovation grounds, by supporting new solar products that have a real chance to develop into sustainable industries that contribute to climate goals. To address concerns about short-term dependence, alternative tools should be employed: accelerated solar deployment, strategic stockpiling and gradually diversifying import sources. In the longer term, recycling of solar panels deserves greater attention and funding. In terms of strengthening economic resilience relative to China, Europe should implement an industrial policy that intervenes in sectors that are more likely to contribute to sustainable economic growth and alleviate decarbonisation bottlenecks.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, European Union, Imports, Solar Power, Economic Security, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

319. Europe’s under-the-radar industrial policy: intervention in electricity pricing

Author:
Ben McWilliams, Giovanni Sgaravatti, Simone Tagliapietra, and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The different ways in which European Union member-state governments add levies to the price of electricity creates huge discrepancies in the prices paid by consumers. Europe’s energy transition depends upon increasing electrification of the economy and increasing the share of that electricity produced by renewable sources. Both factors raise the importance of electricity taxes set by governments. The energy crisis drew attention to this: as electricity prices soared, governments responded with billions of euros in subsidies to protect households and companies. While the acute phase of the energy crisis has passed, growing concerns about industrial competitiveness create political pressure for governments to continue with such subsidies or tax exemptions. High profile examples include the French reform of nuclear-power generated electricity pricing, and a political debate in Germany over how aggressively to subsidise the electricity price paid by energy-intensive firms. We frame the debate on intervention in electricity pricing around five distributional dilemmas concerning the recuperation of electricity expenses: 1) whether to raise general or electricity taxes, 2) the split between household and companies, 3) the split between energy-intensive and non-energy intensive companies, 4) cross-border effects, and 5) trade-offs in attracting new clean-technology manufacturing factories. Priorities according to these distributional criteria will differ by country, but these factors should be central to discussions. Governments must recognise that efforts to lower prices artificially for one group of consumers will raise prices for others, including with cross-border implications. The current compromises in the French and German cases do not pose substantial issues to the integrity of the European single market and do not penalise non-energy-intensive domestic consumers excessively.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, European Union, Electricity, Price, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

320. Bold International Tax Reforms to Counteract the OECD Global Tax

Author:
Adam N. Michel
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Nearly 140 countries, including the United States, have endorsed a new global tax system proposed by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). This proposal, which aims to increase global business taxes and targets America’s most successful companies, threatens to undermine crucial features of the international corporate tax system. Congress will face a decision in 2025: conform to the OECD’s system or opt out and safeguard America’s position as the most attractive place to do business. The taxation of multinational businesses often raises concerns about a “race to the bottom” through harmful tax competition and businesses shifting profits to low-tax countries. Yet the magnitude and effect of these two phenomena are commonly misunderstood. Tax competition has allowed average statutory corporate tax rates to be cut in half over the past four decades, fueling investment and economic growth. Among OECD countries, revenues have increased while tax rates declined. The magnitude of profits shifted to low-tax countries is often inflated by researchers relying on data that overstate income in tax havens. A more comprehensive picture shows that about 8 percent of US corporate profits are reported in tax havens, only half of US multinationals have any presence in a tax haven, and they face higher effective tax rates than domestic competitors. Where it does exist, profit shifting acts as a tax cut on investment, boosting jobs and economic growth in both tax havens and higher-tax home markets. Following the long history of costly reforms to stop businesses from moving profits overseas, US policymakers should try a different approach. Instead of enacting new rules to stop income shifting out of the United States, Congress should focus exclusively on increasing the attractiveness of the United States as an investment destination.
Topic:
Reform, Business, Multinational Corporations, Tax Systems, OECD, and Competition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

321. A Return to US Casualty Aversion: The 9/11 Wars as Aberrations

Author:
John Mueller
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Impelled by an overwhelming desire to hunt down those who were responsible for the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the United States launched military invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, where it toppled regimes that had little or nothing to do with 9/11. There has been a tendency to see these exercises as misguided elements of a coherent plan to establish a liberal world order or to apply liberal hegemony. However, the warring of the post–9/11 period has been a glaring, extended, and highly consequential aberration. During the quarter century before that, the United States pursued a foreign policy that was far more casualty averse. Over the past decade, the country has moved back to—and appears poised to expand on—that tradition after its exhausting 9/11–induced military ventures that ran such high costs for so few benefits. Moreover, public opinion in the United States is not messianic or in constant search of hegemony or of monsters abroad to destroy. As part of its move back to a more limited military approach, the United States developed—or further developed—a strategy called “by, with, and through” that was particularly evident in its successful military campaign from 2014 to 2019 against the Islamic State. In this, the United States worked with local forces by providing advice, supplies, and intelligence, and by carrying out air strikes while the locals were expected to take almost all of the casualties. Although this approach is hardly new, it seems to have a future and is currently being applied in the war in Ukraine. It might also be applied to deal with a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, 9/11, War on Terror, Casualties, and Military
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

322. Slashing Tax Rates and Cutting Loopholes: Options for Tax Reform in the 119th Congress

Author:
Adam N. Michel
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) marked a significant overhaul of the US tax system. It reduced taxes for individuals and businesses through the end of 2025 and boosted economic growth. However, beginning in 2026, Americans face an automatic tax increase of about 8 percent (more than $400 billion a year). In the context of the debate over the expiration of the TCJA, the next Congress has an unprecedented opportunity to cut tax rates to their lowest level in almost a century. The Cato Institute is putting forth this tax plan that pairs massively pro-growth tax cuts with the elimination of $1.4 trillion worth of annual tax loopholes, corporate welfare, and other special-interest tax subsidies. The plan would reduce the top income tax rate to 25 percent, the capital gains rate to 15 percent, and the corporate rate to 12 percent; enact full expensing for all investments; and repeal the estate tax, alternative minimum tax, and net investment income tax. The more aggressively Congress eliminates loopholes in the tax code and cuts spending, the deeper it can slash tax rates, eliminate the costliest taxes, and boost the economy.
Topic:
Reform, Economy, Economic Growth, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

323. Geopolitics in the Pacific Islands: Playing for advantage

Author:
Meg Keen and Alan Tidwell
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Pacific Islands Countries are leveraging geopolitical rivalries to maximise their development options. But unmanaged competition for influence among key development partners can compromise good governance and privilege geopolitical posturing over local priorities. Australia, the United States, and other traditional donors can capitalise on areas of strength, such as social inclusion and regional and multilateral initiatives. Joint efforts along these lines and the pooling of resources would scale up impact and set higher accountability standards. Despite the risk that higher standards will open gaps for non-traditional donors with less burdensome criteria, there is much long-term value in traditional development partners collaborating in a “race to the top” in meeting the region’s needs.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Regional Cooperation, Foreign Aid, Geopolitics, and Donors
Political Geography:
China, Australia, Australia/Pacific, United States of America, and Pacific Islands

324. Overcoming digital threats to democracy

Author:
Lydia Khalil
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The internet was once considered an open door to democracy and liberty. Today, it is seen as an agent of democratic erosion. Digital challenges to democracy include the scale and spread of disinformation and misinformation, the increase in polarisation and extremism that are facilitated and escalated online, and inadequate regulation. Digital platforms are increasingly perceived by the public as serving the needs and interests of the powerful rather than the public good. Average users have few means to influence key decisions and debates about how digital technologies are used and developed. The rules of the digital sphere — whether made by tech companies, regulators, or politicians — often lack public legitimacy. Applying deliberative democracy principles — where small but representative groups of people make decisions after deliberating on issues in depth — can help address the challenges of legitimacy and generate broadly acceptable solutions to the problems that bedevil online spaces and challenge democracy.
Topic:
Democracy, Disinformation, Polarization, and Digital Technologies
Political Geography:
Global Focus

325. Accelerating GBVF Response Through Community-Led Platforms – Lessons from the Scorecard of the Localisation of the National Strategic Plan on Gender-Based Violence and Femicide

Author:
Gugu Resha and Cathy-Ann Potgieter
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:
his policy brief highlights the findings from the scorecard on the localisation of the NSP-GBVF, emphasising the areas of priority for all state and community-based actors as they continue to implement to objectives of the policy. This brief is intended to be used by organisations and community leaders working to strengthen efforts against GBVF, service providers providing protection, prevention and support to victims of GBV, stewards of safety and gender equality in public institutions, police representatives, CPF coordinators and business leaders seeking to make positive contribution to the efforts against GBVF towards gender justice and a violence-free South Africa.
Topic:
Crime, Gender Based Violence, Violence, Legislation, Domestic Violence, Femicide, and Community Initiatives
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

326. Survival strategies in the Middle East: Foreign policy in the service of regime security. The cases of Egypt and UAE.

Author:
Johannes Späth, Carsten Minh Vo, and Cengiz Günay
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
This policy analysis examines foreign policy making in Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). It highlights how internal power dynamics and the interaction between formal institutions and informal networks shape foreign policy making in these two different types of Middle Eastern autocracies. The study identifies the politically relevant elite coalitions and their impact on decision-making. In both regimes, the circle at the top of the power pyramid is rather small and characterized by informal and family ties. A small and homogeneous elite promotes cohesion, but also limits the diversity of opinions. The royal elite in the UAE and the military and intelligence elite at the core of the al-Sisi regime in Egypt pursue their own economic interests in the service of regime security and stability. The paper identifies areas where the regional and foreign policies/interests of the two friendly countries and their elites diverge.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Autocracy, Regional Politics, and Regime Security
Political Geography:
Middle East, Egypt, and UAE

327. Freerider or Strategic Balancer? Austria vis-à-vis NATO and Russia. US – perspective on Austrian neutrality politics

Author:
Jason C. Moyer and Patrick Kornegay
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 highlighted the fragility of peace and security in Europe. The resurgence of war in Europe prompted a reassessment of the security postures of traditionally neutral countries. Norms on military spending and assistance have been shattered, leading to Finland and Sweden reversing decades of military non-alignment to join NATO. Even Switzerland is eyeing a strategic overhaul and is considering joint exercises with NATO (Revill, 2022). Despite Sweden and Finland’s decision to join NATO Austria remains committed to neutrality. The public debate on Austria’s strategic culture has remained largely the same and policymakers in Vienna have not changed their stance on NATO. Russia’s war in Ukraine has underscored Austria’s need to reevaluate its policy of neutrality and strategic approach vis-a-vis NATO and Russia.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, Neutrality, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Austria, and United States of America

328. Identity Continuities, Far-Right Acquiescence, and the “New” and the “Old”: Finnish and Swedish NATO Accession and Neutrality

Author:
Erik Isaksson
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
With Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO, the number of neutral or non-aligned states in the EU has been reduced to three: Austria, Ireland, and Malta. How did Finland and Sweden’s shifts come about? What do these shifting neutrality – alliance membership constellations mean for the concept of neutrality, and for Austria’s position as a neutral state? This paper first examines the Finnish and Swedish debates pertaining to their own respective shifts, with particular attention to the far-right parties in those countries. It argues three things: first, contrary to most commentary, both the Finnish and Swedish policy shifts were underpinned by identity considerations, identities that remain largely the same under NATO membership as under non-alignment. Second, the far right’s acceptance of NATO membership has been a mix of opportunism and broadly engrained views of Russia. Third, par-ticularly in Sweden, neutrality has become seen as a thing of the past, and alliance membership as new and exciting, with possible implications for how neutrality is understood internationally. The paper then examines the state of the neutrality debate in Austria, with particular attention to the notion of neutrality as Austrian identity, the role of the FPÖ, and the potential risks for “neutral Austria” going forward. It concludes with a summary of the paper’s findings; a look at how neutrality in Austria, too, might increasingly be seen as an “old” concept; and by offering examples of how foreign policy con-cepts have been successfully reimagined in the past.
Topic:
NATO, European Union, Regional Integration, Neutrality, and Identity
Political Geography:
Europe, Finland, and Sweden

329. The New Geopolitical Formation in the Wider Horn of Africa: Consequences for Europe

Author:
Jan Pospisil
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The ongoing conflicts in Sudan, Somalia, and Ethiopia significantly destabilise the Wider Horn of Africa and impact the broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. These conflicts, rooted in fragmented statehood and exacerbated by internal ethnic, regional, and political divisions, threaten regional stability through increased migration and disruptions in the Red Sea. The conflicts are deeply internationalised, involving military engagements from neighbouring countries and attracting global powers due to significant geostrategic stakes. Traditional Western influences are waning. Instead, new actors like China, Russia, and various Gulf States are heavily engaged in the region. For Europe, the instability in the Horn of Africa presents urgent challenges, primarily related to migration, the security of maritime routes, and potential spillover effects in neighbouring regions like Egypt. Addressing these issues requires enhanced political engagement, addressing humanitarian needs, reforming peacekeeping efforts, and strengthening security cooperation. Europe’s response should be robust and coordinated, aiming to mitigate immediate threats and contribute to long-term stability in the region, reflecting the complexity of the intertwined interests and ongoing conflicts.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Political stability, Conflict, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Horn of Africa

330. Leveraging Charging Strategies to Reduce Grid Impacts of Electric Vehicles

Author:
Christine Gschwendtner
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Electric vehicles (EVs) can challenge or support electricity systems depending on how they are charged. Uncontrolled charging may strain electricity systems, e.g., by increasing peak demand in the evening,1 which may require cost- and emission-intensive infrastructure investments, such as grid reinforcements and peak generation capacity. In contrast, controlled charging can benefit electricity systems by providing flexibility,2 e.g., by shifting charging demand away from evening hours. Controlled charging that combines technical solutions with heterogenous EV user behaviors, supported by charging infrastructure at diverse locations, e.g., at work during midday, and incentives, can reduce peak demand to avoid grid constraints and support the integration of renewable energy.
Topic:
Environment, Natural Resources, and Electric Vehicles
Political Geography:
Global Focus

331. Sodium: An Alternative to the "White Gold" of the Energy Transition?

Author:
Nicola De Blasio
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
As the world transitions towards low-carbon energy systems, scaling up clean energy technologies will drive demand for critical minerals and metals, such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth elements. Stakeholders in the private and public sectors must work together to implement effective and efficient strategies, policies, and regulations to ensure that supplies are secure, reliable, sustainable, and equitable. Over the past years, the price volatility of minerals and metals has increased due to rising demand, supply chain disruptions, and concerns about tightening supplies. In addition, today’s markets are highly concentrated in a small number of countries. Although supply diversification investments are increasing, most near-term growth is expected from existing major producers, resulting in an even higher geopolitical risk.1 The transportation sector offers a stark example of these dynamics. Every year, the world increasingly relies on batteries. In 2022, electric vehicles (EVs) accounted for about 10 percent of global vehicle sales and are expected to reach 35 percent by the decade’s end.2 Announced policies around the world are accelerating these trends. For example, recent climate legislation in the United States is deploying billions into battery manufacturing and incentives for EV purchases.3 Lithium-ion batteries, a technology also used in computers and cell phones, power most EVs today. Typical of innovation cycles, years of development and deployment have resulted in significant cost reductions and improved performances. Today’s EVs are becoming increasingly competitive with internal combustion vehicles and can be driven for hundreds of kilometers between charges. Lithium is used in EVs because it is lightweight, has high energy densities, is relatively low maintenance, and can be repeatedly charged. From a market and geopolitical perspective, analysts estimate that lithium demand will increase tenfold before the end of this decade.4,5 In 2021, China dominated lithium global markets with 79 percent of all lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity; this figure is expected to decrease slightly to around 65 percent by 2025 (see Figure 1).
Topic:
Environment, Natural Resources, Lithium, Batteries, Electric Vehicles, Energy Transition, and Sodium
Political Geography:
Global Focus

332. How Multimodal AI Could Retool Global Crisis Response

Author:
Ben Ellencweig, Jessica Lamb, Jon Spaner, and Mihir Mysore
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Imagine this future scenario: as a hurricane develops, both its intensity and the timing of landfall are recalculated every hour on desktop-grade computers. The nature of the impact, including noncorrelated crises that may occur and second-order effects of the hurricane, are modeled through multiple scenarios on city-scale digital twins that have property-level granularity. The output of these simulations results in a clear set of trigger-based action plans that are tailored, verified through human-in-the-loop mechanisms, and sent to emergency responders, community leaders, government agencies, and potentially even residents in affected areas. Community leaders have access to tools that allow them to understand what to expect, what resources to leverage, and what actions may make the most difference. Homeowners receive targeted suggestions of how to protect their assets, avoid falling victim to fraud, and navigate post-disaster support. Disinformation campaigns get countered by fact-based automated outreach.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Crisis Management, Artificial Intelligence, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

333. The African Union's contested role in advancing gender equality

Author:
Karmen Tornius
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The African Union (AU) has put forth significant initiatives addressing gender equality issues on the continent but is confronted by concerns related to legitimacy, donor dependency and questionable impact on the ground.
Topic:
Development, African Union, Donors, Equality, and Gender
Political Geography:
Europe and Denmark

334. Energy as a weapon - decoding blackmail tactics in Europe

Author:
Veronika Slakaityte and Izabela Surwillo
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
‘Energy blackmail’ became a buzzword following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the subsequent energy crisis, but the phenomenon is not new. Energy blackmail has been employed by states to leverage their strategic energy resources for decades. In Europe, the weaponisation of energy predates Vladimir Putin’s time in Kremlin. Despite EU efforts to diversify its energy supply, the threat of energy blackmail persists, posing challenges not only to traditional energy dependencies but also to the increasingly digitalised energy sector.
Topic:
European Union, Energy, Russia-Ukraine War, and Natural Gas
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

335. Future Danish engagement with Africa: Insights and priorities for Denmark´s new Africa strategy from DIIS’ partners across the continent

Author:
Mary Boatemaa Setrana, Rahma Hassan, Faisal Garba, Mohamed Aden Hassan, Meron Zeleke Ersesso, Adam Moe Fejerskov, Nauja Kleist, and Mikkel Funder
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Remaking political relations with African countries has become a key priority for the Danish government, looking toward a future where Africa becomes of greater (geo)political importance to Denmark and Europe. To achieve this, Denmark is preparing a new plan for its future strategic engagement on the continent. Aiming to situate African countries closer to Denmark’s core foreign affairs, the plan is expected to address questions across the fields of foreign affairs, security, development, and trade, and focus on equal partnerships. The government has indicated a need to build on the mantra of ‘preaching less and listening more’ – as the Danish minister for foreign affairs framed it at a recent visit to Kenya – with political relations based on a ‘pragmatic idealism’ and more genuine forms of cooperation that reflect mutual interests. In this Policy Brief, some of DIIS’ African research partners consider key questions on what it takes to achieve equal partnerships, what a new Danish strategic engagement with Africa should look like, and what it should refrain from.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Engagement, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Denmark

336. EU technology resilience and autonomy

Author:
Flemming Splidsboel Hansen and Maria Mundt
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
In the face of growing international competition between both individual states and coalitions of states, the European Union is developing a new approach towards technological resilience and autonomy.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Autonomy, Resilience, and International Competition
Political Geography:
Europe

337. Somaliland at the centre of rising tensions in the Horn of Africa

Author:
Jethro Norman
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
On 1 January 2024, a surprise Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was announced between the self-declared breakaway Republic of Somaliland and Ethiopia. The deal allowed landlocked Ethiopia to lease 20 kilometres of Somaliland’s coastal land for naval and commercial purposes. In exchange, Ethiopia would be the first country to recognise Somaliland as an independent nation (later revised by Ethiopia to an ‘in depth assessment’ of recognition). The government of the Federal Republic of Somalia (FGS), which considers Somaliland part of its territory, called the deal a violation of its territorial sovereignty, a position supported by the EU and other international partners. In western Somaliland’s Awdal region, where the coastal land has been promised, there have been widespread protests. The Ethiopia-Somaliland deal has immediately increased tensions throughout the region. The timing of the agreement is significant as it occurred shortly after Somalia agreed to resume talks concerning Somaliland’s disputed constitutional status, putting an abrupt end to the dialogue. Regional blocs are already coalescing between those who support Somalia’s territorial integrity (notably Djibouti, Egypt and Eritrea) and those supporting Ethiopia (including the UAE and Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces). The possibility of a future war in the Horn is a real concern. Analysis has so far focused on Ethiopia’s expansionist actions, especially in light of a looming debt crisis and various internal conflicts, and support from the UAE, an influential regional player. However, it is unlikely that this deal would have been possible were Somaliland itself not already in crisis. Although the news of the agreement was met with celebration in the capital, Hargeisa, Somaliland is not approaching this deal from a position of strength. Since 2022, it has lost control of a significant portion of its eastern territory to pro-unionist forces who established their own administration, SSC-Khatumo. Internal unrest has also been brewing since 2022 due to delayed Presidential elections in Somaliland. Although President Muse Bihi Abdi has allowed clan elders to mediate the election-related disputes, the opposition remains skeptical as to whether elections will indeed occur by the end of 2024. The aim of the deal with Ethiopia is to restore the President’s reputation, and by extension Somaliland’s international reputation, contain domestic resistance, and revive its battered economy. Mediating between Somaliland, Somalia and Ethiopia is necessary, but not enough. Addressing the deep-rooted political crisis within Somaliland and clarifying its status in relation to Somalia are essential for finding a long-term solution to regional instability. Resolving the political status of both Somaliland and the newly established SSC-Khatumo should be a top priority in achieving long-term stability in the Horn.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Development, Diplomacy, International Organization, Migration, Non State Actors, Fragile States, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa, Somalia, and Horn of Africa

338. The war in Ukraine poses unprecedented threats to aid workers

Author:
Jethro Norman
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
An interstate war in Europe presents new security challenges for humanitarians. Along the 960km Ukraine-Russia frontline, humanitarian infrastructure has been hit by shelling, missiles and drone strikes, and aid delivery disrupted by electronic warfare. Supporting specialised training and removing outdated bureaucratic burdens are some of the ways in which donors and policymakers can help humanitarian organisations adapt to this new context.
Topic:
Security, Humanitarian Aid, Conflict, Peace, Russia-Ukraine War, and Aid Workers
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

339. The European Union can go green and lower dependencies on China

Author:
Luke Patey
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Some Western pundits see the ongoing policy push from the European Union to de-risk supply chain dependencies on China as a threat to gains from decades of economic globalisation. Others regard Chinese industrial strengths in green technologies as unbreakable and see attempts to diversify the EU’s reliance as setting back global efforts to fight climate change. Yet, diversifying sources of critical minerals away from China and other large suppliers is a necessity in today’s volatile geopolitical climate. As well as actively pursuing new partnerships overseas to lower large dependencies on single sources, EU member states should fully harness new regulatory tools, such as the Critical Raw Materials Act, to diversify sources of critical minerals and exploit the Net-Zero Industry Act to support the production of green technologies and leverage European resources, capabilities and know-how. Contrary to conventional thinking, Europe is not starting from scratch when it comes to developing strategic supply chains in green, digital and defence technologies. Over time, there is ample potential for de-risking critical minerals to have a positive impact on the EU’s supply chain resilience and its contribution to lowering global emissions.
Topic:
European Union, Green Technology, Supply Chains, Energy Transition, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
China and Europe

340. Humanitarian principles are under fire in Ukraine

Author:
Jethro Norman
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Ukraine presents a unique challenge for many international humanitarian organisations. Operating in a context of heightened geo-political and donor interest, and in close proximity to military actors, amateur volunteer groups and Ukrainian civil society are testing the core principles of neutrality and impartiality that once underpinned humanitarian work.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Humanitarian Aid, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

341. Vessel protection against piracy in the Gulf of Guinea: a public private hybrid

Author:
Jessica Larsen and Stephanie Schandorf
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Private security companies supplement state efforts to protect merchant vessels from piracy attacks in the Gulf of Guinea, yet operations are poorly regulated. Denmark and other seafaring states should call for harmonised international legislation, standardised conduct and the creation of robust oversight mechanisms.
Topic:
Security, Maritime Commerce, Piracy, and Protection
Political Geography:
Africa, Denmark, and Gulf of Guinea

342. Locally-led climate change adaptation works: Here are eight ways to support it

Author:
Claire Bedelian, Judith Mulwa, Beatrice Sumari, and Peter Rogers
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Locally-led adaptation (LLA) is a framework of key principles for how to support communities in adapting to climate change. This policy brief looks at a study of six LLA water-related projects in Kenya and Tanzania to explore how donors, governments and civil society actors can best support the approach.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Water, Governance, and Adaptation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

343. Wooing foreign investors: Greenland should prepare for the next dispute

Author:
Rafael Cox Alomar and Ulrik Pram Gad
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Foreign direct investment (FDI) in energy and mining projects is critical for many resource-rich countries that wish to use their resources for economic development. However, from an investor perspective, projects are vulnerable to state intervention. Due to the intense global competition for FDI, countries therefore go to great lengths in assuring foreign investors that disputes will be resolved fairly. The current dispute over the Kuannersuit mining project demonstrates the legal and policy challenges facing Greenland as it aspires to economic and constitutional independence.
Topic:
Foreign Direct Investment, Mining, and Energy
Political Geography:
Greenland

344. Embracing green tech innovation is part of a Saudi dual energy strategy

Author:
Maria-Louise Clausen
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Saudi Arabia is one of the world’s largest oil exporters with a single-source economy heavily reliant on oil income, yet it simultaniously seeks to position itself as a leader in clean energy innovation. While this may be dismissed as nothing more than ‘greenwashing’, the country’s specific green energy pathway can be understood as part of a broader redesign of the Saudi national identity.
Topic:
Oil, Economy, Green Technology, Innovation, Identity, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East and Saudi Arabia

345. Reimagining peacekeeping in Africa and beyond

Author:
Peter Albrecht, Corine van Emmerik, Kwesi Aning, Nina Wilén, and John Karlsrud
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The ending of the United Nations (UN) peacekeeping mission in Mali in 2023, coupled with preparations for concluding the more than two decades-long mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in late 2024, signal a new trend in international peacekeeping: a move away from extensive, multidimensional missions towards more targeted and stabilisation-focused, often ad hoc, operations. These milestones in peacekeeping point to the need for UN member states, from both the South and North, to respond to the contemporary global landscape and conduct a thorough reassessment of the effectiveness of peacekeeping. The absence of any new, large-scale, multidimensional peacekeeping initiatives since such missions were deployed in South Sudan (2011), Mali (2013) and the Central African Republic (2014) further emphasises the uncertain future of peacekeeping. There is a growing recognition that these operations have failed to meet expectations and achieve their intended objectives of establishing lasting and equitable peace where they deploy. This realisation, together with a crisis of consent from host states, has led to waning confidence in and enthusiasm for such interventions among the international community. Alongside a declining belief in the ‘liberal world order’ primarily advanced by governments and practitioners in Europe and North America, this underscores a deep-seated change in the field of international peacekeeping. On the one hand there is a need to adapt and critically assess almost six decades of peacekeeping, as highlighted in the UN’s New Agenda for Peace, including the political and ideological basis upon which this form of intervention stands. Indeed, peacekeeping has not only attempted to respond to the changing nature of conflict, especially after the Cold War, it has also directly contributed to existing inequalities globally and represented an increasingly violent form of intervention from its traditional point of departure. On the other hand, with UN-led peacekeeping missions (possibly) phasing out, it is crucial to also critically analyze the new forms of intervention that are emerging. Their suitability for the diverse operational challenges encountered must be assessed, especially in Africa where most UN missions have been deployed, often led by the African Union (AU) or through ad hoc coalitions that sometimes operate beyond UN and AU mandates.
Topic:
Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Fragile States
Political Geography:
Africa

346. Bridging the gap in climate change financing to violent conflict affected areas

Author:
Justine Chambers and Helene Maria Kyed
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Countries affected by violent conflict are among the most vulnerable to climate change yet receive an extremely low share of global climate financing. This is despite the fact that most UN member states now recognise the interlinkages between climate change and violent conflict. The UN’s New Agenda for Peace also highlights ‘climate, peace and security’ as a crucial policy area. Upgrading climate change support to vulnerable populations in violent conflict-affected areas necessitates substantial changes to global climate financing. This is supported by the COP28 declaration on “Climate, Relief, Recovery and Peace”, signed by 91 UN member states, including Denmark, which also calls for enhanced conflict-sensitivity and more funds for local organisations.
Topic:
Climate Change, Natural Resources, Non State Actors, Conflict, Instability, and Vulnerability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

347. Europe's role in the Sahel

Author:
Christine Nissen
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
A few years ago Africa’s Sahel region sat at the top of the EU’s foreign policy and security agenda. European member states were mobilising significant resources to address the security challenges of the region. This changed overnight on the 24th of February 2022 when Putin’s Russia invaded Ukraine and resurrected the spectre of conventional war on the European continent. From that day all Europe’s focus was directed to the Eastern threat, and European presence in the Sahel has since been scaled down. The Russian war in Ukraine is not the only reason why Europe is scaling down ambitions in the Sahel. Indeed, growing anti-Western sentiment amongst Sahelian governments and populations, and increasing resistance to European, and not least French, interference have made it challenging for European countries to stay engaged in the region. The Ukraine War and the European re-focus eastwards is symptomatic of the changing global order, which tells a broader story of European–African relations in crisis. The world is changing – and European governments are struggling to decide how to position themselves within it. In the short term Europe emerges as the primary loser due to its limited readiness to navigate this evolving landscape.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Non State Actors, Geopolitics, and International Order
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Sahel

348. Climate-related losses and damages to social cohesion are overlooked

Author:
Lily Salloum Lindegaard and Francis Jarawura
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Climate change and related impacts – like forced migration and displacement – affect the social cohesion that is crucial for communities to function and thrive. Yet blind spots and misconceptions may misdirect response efforts.
Topic:
Climate Change, Displacement, Social Cohesion, and Forced Migration
Political Geography:
Africa, Ghana, and Niger

349. War volunteers in the digital age: How new technologies transform conflict dynamics

Author:
Jethro Norman
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Citizens traveling to participate in foreign wars have long posed significant challenges for states. The advent of smartphones and global connectivity has added new layers of complexity to this issue. With a particular focus on the conflict in Ukraine, this brief explores how digital technologies are reshaping the landscape of foreign participation in warfare.
Topic:
Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, Digital Technologies, and Volunteers
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Global Focus

350. Diaspora aid is crucial for emergency relief in the Somali regions

Author:
Nauja Kleist, Peter Albrecht, Mohamed Aden Hassan, and Karuti Kanyinga
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Somali diaspora humanitarianism alleviates suffering and saves lives in the Somali regions that are affected by conflict, poverty and natural disasters. Its absence would exacerbate crises and significantly limit the impact of formal assistance.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, Natural Disasters, Diaspora, Fragile States, Economy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

351. Climate migration amplifies gender inequalities

Author:
Sofie Henriksen, Sine Plambech, Kolja Dahlin, and Benedikte Raft
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Nepal is one of the countries in the world most vulnerable to climate change. International labour migration has become a strategy to secure funds to protect against the consequences of climate change, but for women it is not so simple.
Topic:
Climate Change, Migration, Poverty, Labor Issues, Women, Inequality, and Gender
Political Geography:
South Asia and Nepal

352. An analysis of the impact of Turkish attacks on Syria on future normalization efforts between the two nations

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
In a televised address after a Cabinet meeting on January 16, 2024, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan confirmed his country's commitment to eliminating what he referred to as "terrorist hideouts" in Syria. These areas extend from Tel Rifaat to Ain al-Arab, and from Hasakah to Manbij. Erdogan stressed, “Our military presence beyond our borders is critical to the national security of our country and for the peace of our citizens. There’s no turning back from this.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Syrian War, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Normalization, Rapprochement, Bashar al-Assad, and PKK
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

353. Analyzing the repercussions of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger's withdrawal from ECOWAS

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On January 28, 2024, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso declared their immediate withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in response to the stringent economic sanctions levied by the 15-member regional bloc following recent military coups. This move has sparked widespread speculation regarding its impact on the ECOWAS’ function, as well as the security and political landscape in the Sahel and West Africa.
Topic:
Politics, Sanctions, Regional Security, and ECOWAS
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso

354. Is Somalia about to replicate the Afghanistan scenario post-withdrawal of the "ATMIS” forces?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On February 10, 2024, the Gordon military base in Mogadishu was subjected to a terrorist attack by the jihadist Al-Shabab group. The attack resulted in the deaths of several officers performing training tasks for Somali forces, indicating a recent increase in the intensity of Al-Shabab's terrorist activity. This coincides with the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia’s (ATMIS) announcement that it declared the completion of the second phase of withdrawal of its forces from Mogadishu in early February. The remaining stages, which are expected to be implemented by the end of this year, have been raising concerns about the possibility of a new Afghanistan scenario in the Horn of Africa region.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Al Shabaab, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

355. What Dilemma is Hampering Japan’s Rise to a Major World Power

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On January 1, 2024, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida vowed to propel Japan to the forefront of the international arena amongst nation-states that have a proactive role in key global affairs and issues. In his New Year's address, Kishida affirmed that he will “exert leadership unique to Japan" through summit diplomacy to "overcome challenges," citing issues such as Russia's war on Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict. The Prime Minister’s comments come on the back of official figures released on February 15, 2024, showing that Japan’s economy has slipped to fourth place after being replaced by Germany as the world’s third largest economy. India is projected to overtake both Japan and Germany and become the world's third-largest economy during the current decade. Between Japan's aspirations to become a major global player and its evident economic decline, there are lingering questions about the obstacles it faces in transforming into a significant influential force in a world moving towards multipolarism.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Leadership, Economy, and Emerging Powers
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

356. Analyzing how rampant organized crime is impacting Latin America’s stability ?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The ongoing violent tensions engulfing some Latin American countries, starting with Ecuador in the east and extending to Haiti in the Caribbean in the west, raise questions about the motives behind the growing illicit activities of organized crime across the continent. Those activities include drug production and trafficking, human trafficking, arms smuggling, and others. Such transnational crimes pose security threats and challenges to the countries of the region and neighboring states, foremost among them the United States, which has historically regarded Latin America as its backyard, allowing no one to approach the continent or interfere in its affairs without prior permission.
Topic:
Crime, Political stability, Violence, Organized Crime, Gangs, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Latin America, Haiti, and Ecuador

357. Forecasting Chinese expansion into Central Asia

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
In early April 2024, China signed a two-year enhanced security cooperation agreement with Uzbekistan, which was reached during a meeting between Chinese Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Interior Minister Pulat Bobojonov in Tashkent. Some believe this pact was prompted by escalating international and regional competition for Central Asia, mainly because it came amid moves by international and regional powers in the five countries. Moreover, as China expands activities in this region to capitalize on cooperation potentials and opportunities, its influence in the five Central Asian countries, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, is steadily rising, mainly encouraged by Moscow's preoccupation with its war in Ukraine. The development is raising questions about the future of China's presence in Central Asia in the coming years.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Strategic Competition, and Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Central Asia, and Asia

358. The role of artificial intelligence in modern warfare

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The use of artificial intelligence technologies in various armed conflict arenas, such as the Russian-Ukrainian war and the Israeli war in Gaza, has sparked numerous discussions about their nature, risks to international and regional security, and the sustainability of the conflict. These experiments have shown that weapons supported by artificial intelligence can be more accurate than those directed by humans, which can potentially reduce collateral damage, including civilian casualties, damage to residential areas, and the number of soldiers killed or injured. However, it also raises concerns about the possibility of committing disastrous mistakes.
Topic:
Artificial Intelligence, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, 2023 Gaza War, and Warfare
Political Geography:
Global Focus

359. What Future Awaits Pakistani-Afghan Relations?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The ruling Taliban in Afghanistan rejected, on May 12, 2024, a scheduled visit from a Pakistani military delegation to the Afghan city of Kandahar, the headquarters of Taliban leader Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada. The visit aimed to discuss border management and the Pakistani branch of the Taliban (Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan, TTP). The cancellation of the visit followed Islamabad's drone and missile attacks on Paktika province in southeastern Afghanistan. Earlier, on March 18, 2024, Pakistani forces carried out airstrikes on the Afghan provinces of Khost and Paktika in response to a deadly attack by the Tehreek-e-Taliban's security forces in North Waziristan. This indicates the ongoing tension marring relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan since the Taliban took power in Afghanistan in August 2021.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, Taliban, and Borders
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia

360. Could the Territorial Dispute Ignite Conflict Between Venezuela and Guyana?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On May 5, 2024, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro announced the presence of US military and intelligence bases in the Essequibo region, a disputed territory between Venezuela and Guyana. This announcement marks a new escalation in the ongoing dispute over the region, which has gained significant importance following recent major oil discoveries.
Topic:
Security, Oil, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:
South America, Venezuela, Guyana, and Essequibo

361. Motives for the Resurgence of the Sadrist Movement in Iraq

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The Sadrist Movement has recently increased its activities throughout Iraq, hinting at a possible return to the country's political landscape. This development follows the movement's vow to boycott the political process in July 2022.
Topic:
Elections, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Muqtada al-Sadr
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

362. From Paper to Practice: Enhancing Integrated Development Plans to Improve Governance

Author:
Stuart Morrison and Pranish Desai
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation (PME) systems play an important role in ensuring that South Africa’s municipalities are able to effectively fulfil their core mandate of service delivery. One central component of this system is the Integrated Development Plan (IDP), a strategic framework used for several functions, including guiding key priorities and providing a roadmap for effectively delivering public services. However, even though most municipalities consistently submit IDPs, the quality of service delivery, especially amongst municipalities that have Water Services Authority responsibilities, is uneven. This raises the questions around which factors are more influential in determining effective service provision, and why they are lacking in dozens of municipalities. Using Good Governance Africa’s 2024 Governance Performance Index (GPI), this policy briefing provides a range of stakeholders with consolidated insights into how these issues can be addressed.
Topic:
Development, Governance, Services, Planning, Monitoring, and and Evaluation (PME)
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

363. Greening Economies in Partner Countries: Priorities for International Cooperation

Author:
Tilman Altenburg, Anna Pegels, Annika Björkdahl, Clara Brandi, and Hanna Fuhrmann-Riebel
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
While polluting industries are still flourishing, the green economy is on the rise. In low- and middle-income countries, the resulting opportunities are mostly underexplored. The Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)’s new strategy for “Sustainable economic development, training and employment” shifts gears towards a green and inclusive structural transformation, recognising that only a just transition approach with credible co-benefits for societies can gain societal acceptance (BMZ, 2023). It is now essential to provide evidence of how a greener economy can offer direct economic benefits to national economies and the majority of their citizens. Ongoing cooperation portfolios need to be adjusted to this new and timely orientation in the BMZ’s core strategy. We suggest focusing on the following six areas: Eco-social fiscal reform should be a priority area in at least 15 of the over 40 partner countries with whom Germany cooperates on “sustainable economic development”, systematically linking revenues from pricing pollutions to pro-poor spending. Development policy should promote inclusive green finance (IGF) through market-shaping policies, such as an enabling regulatory framework for the development of digital IGF services and customer protection in digital payment services. It should also build policymakers’ capacity in developing IGF policies and regulation. Support in the area of sustainable, circular con-sumption should focus on eco-design, and repair and reuse systems. It should build systems design capa-cities and behavioural knowledge, to integrate con-sumers in low-carbon and circular industry-consumer systems. This will need new collaborations with actors shaping systems of consumption and production, for instance with supermarkets or the regulators of eco-design guidelines. Germany should strategically support national hydro-gen strategies, including a just transition approach and prioritising green over other “colours” of hydrogen. This means strengthening industrial policy think tanks, technology and market assessment agencies, technology-related policy advice as well as skills development, and exploring distributive mechanisms to spread the gains and ensure societal acceptance. Sustainable urbanisation should be a more explicit priority, given its potential for job creation and enterprise development. This means supporting partners in integrating land-use, construction and mobility planning for compact, mixed-use neighbourhoods, and anti-cipating green jobs potential and skills required within cities. Lastly, Germany should support green industrial policy and enlarge policy space in trade rules by promoting the core institutions of industrial policy, for example, technology foresight agencies, coordinating platforms for industry upgrading, and policy think tanks, and working towards reforms of the trading system, such as rules to allow clearly defined green industrial subsidies, preferential market access for green goods and services from low-income countries, or technology transfer. It is evident for all areas that the challenges in low- and middle-income countries will differ from those in high-income countries. It is, therefore, imperative that successful programmes are co-developed with local partners. A just green transition that harvests benefits beyond a healthier environment and is supported by societies will then be achievable.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Economy, Sustainability, and Green Economy
Political Geography:
Germany and Global Focus

364. Tomorrow’s Global Development Landscape: Mapping Trends and Reform Dynamics

Author:
Heiner Janus, Niels Keijzer, and Svea Koch
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
The key tools and governance approaches for international cooperation for sustainable development (hereafter, international cooperation) were set up in a markedly different time and age. International cooperation – with official development assistance (ODA) as the dominant means of implementation – remains key, despite being generally considered as no longer adequate for addressing today’s common and collective challenges. Despite numerous declarations of its growing irrelevance or calls for it even being beyond repair, the governance and reporting system of ODA has remained largely unchanged throughout its 60 years of existence. One reason is that there are few alternatives. Pandemic response and preparedness, climate finance, humanitarian aid, the United Nations development system as well as the budgets of the multilateral development banks all by and large remain dependent on ODA. New and additional sources of development finance have been slow to materialise and run the risk of remaining time-bound and ad-hoc, as illustrated by recent discussions on Special Drawing Rights, debt swaps and green bonds. While other actors, such as providers of South-South Cooperation (SSC), and non-governmental actors are increasing and gaining importance, they are only to a limited degree institutionalised. In the absence of transparent and coherent methodologies for monitoring their actions, concrete financial volumes remain hard to assess. This paper analyses structural factors of the institutional inertia in international cooperation and formulates expectations for where new reform impetuses might arise from. To this end, it maps and links key reform proposals for the global development system, with a specific focus on public financial flows consisting of three connected parts. The first part concerns current forms of and reporting processes for ODA, climate finance and SSC. These concern well-established, albeit path-dependent, forms of international cooperation with different types of multistakeholder settings and different levels of institutionalisation. Here, we do not expect fundamental reforms given various entrenched interests and expect that the nexus between climate finance and ODA will be the main driver for change. The second part of our mapping consists of what we call “global first” reform ideas. These ideas begin with a problem-oriented approach at the global level and aim at setting up new, universal financing schemes and redesigning institutional structures for that purpose. While the ideas in this category are still in their initial stage, we regard them to be particularly relevant for conceptualising the “demand-side” of reforms (i.e., “what would be needed?”). Here, we predict that the more ambitious reforms for creating universality of contributions and benefits at the global level will not materialise. However, these concepts play a key role in influencing the future orientation of specific existing (multilateral) institutions. The third part of our mapping entails positioning current multilateral and bilateral development organisations located between the first two parts. We observe that these organisations experience a gravitational pull towards both directions of reform, namely focusing on global public goods versus prioritising the (countries) left behind, often with competing incentives and trade-offs between national and global development priorities. We expect that a reform of bilateral development actors will lag behind in the broader policy field due to their domestic political constraints, whereas multilateral development banks will generate greater reform momentum (and be pushed by their stakeholders) as first movers.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Global Focus

365. Constellations of State Fragility: Improving International Cooperation through Analytical Differentiation

Author:
Jasmin Lorch, Sebastian Ziaja, and Jörn Grävingholt
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
State fragility has remained a pressing challenge for international security and development policymakers for more than two decades. However, international engagement in fragile states has often failed, in part due to a lack of understanding about what constitutes state fragility. Established quantitative models usually rank fragile states on one-dimensional scales ranging from stable to highly fragile. This puts states characterised by very different problems and dimensions of fragility into the same “box”. Moreover, categorisations such as “fragile”, “weak”, “failed” or “collapsed” are increasingly rejected in the Global South, thereby hampering international development and security cooperation. The “Constellations of State Fragility” model, developed at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), provides a more differentiated model to measure state fragility. It assesses state fragility along three continuous dimensions, assuming that state fragility is a continuous trait that affects all states to some degree: authority, capacity and legitimacy. These dimensions are not aggregated into a one-dimensional index. Instead, the model detects typical constellations across these dimensions. In so doing, it also accounts for the fact that states can perform very differently in different dimensions. Our analysis yields three main insights about what constitutes state fragility and how it can be addressed: first, state fragility, illiberalism, repression and human rights violations are interrelated; second, state fragility is not unique to the Global South, with negative trends also occurring in the Global North; and, third, differentiated, multi-dimensional models offer better starting points for addressing state fragility than one-dimensional ones. We conclude with four policy recommendations: • Improve analytical capacity by adopting a differentiated view of state fragility: International security and development policymakers would benefit from more fine-grained, differentiated assessments of state fragility. In addition, country-specific assessments of the specific local power constellations in which fragile state institutions are embedded are needed for devising adequate, context-sensitive measures. • Connect measures to address fragility with democracy protection and the protection of human rights: Illiberalism, human rights violations and repression correlate with state fragility. This also suggests that there is a close relationship between autocracy, autocratisation and fragility. Accordingly, measures to address fragility, democracy support and efforts to protect human rights must be better connected. This also implies doing “no harm to democracy” (Leininger, 2023, p. 2). • Identify conditions under which state-building can (or cannot) be pursued: It would be fruitful if international security and development policymakers engaged in thorough discussions about the conditions under which state-building can be pursued. Where existing state institutions are legitimate, they should be supported. However, donor coherence and the capacity (and political will) of donors to commit resources to fragile states and to engage long-term are also important preconditions. State-building is both a costly and a long-term endeavour. • Learning across world regions: Patterns of state fragility can be highly similar, despite geographical distance. In particular, rising illiberalism and increasing attacks on civil liberties are global phenomena. Hence, policy decision-makers and civil society organisations (CSOs) seeking to counter fragility should engage in mutual learning across the North/South divide.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Fragile States, and Development Aid
Political Geography:
Global Focus

366. Current Developments in West Africa’s Regional Integration – Challenges for the Future Design of Foreign and Development Policy

Author:
Klaus Grütjen
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
On 16 September 2023, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger – all three states led by military regimes – decided to establish a new regional organisation, the Alliance of Sahel States (Alliance des Etats du Sahel – AES). This move was prompted by the worsening of the crisis within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in 2023, a crisis that reached its peak to date with the announcement by the three AES members on 28 January 2024 of their withdrawal from ECOWAS, a regional organisation set up back in 1975. In a socio-political context in which the role and functions of the state, the extent of state powers and the way in which they are exercised are increasingly being called into question, new forms of political and social organisation are developing. These are also influenced by the current geopolitical developments in the changing world order. At the same time, states and societies and the ongoing regional integration processes are facing major new challenges. Within ECOWAS, conventional ideas of state and society, values and structures are coming up against growing tendencies towards a new understanding of statehood and sovereignty. In the West Africa/Sahel region, new processes of nation-building and state-building are under way, underpinned by efforts to renew social cohesion and to integrate the ‘vital forces of the nation’ – a concept cited increasingly frequently in these countries – as comprehensively as possible. These developments call for a realignment of German and European foreign and development policy. The political and social conditions and expectations of the partners in the West Africa/Sahel region are currently undergoing profound transformation. They need to be aligned with the content and interests of the value-based foreign policy advocated by Germany – in line with the principle of a ‘partnership between equals’. Any appraisal of the future developments and integration of the dynamics that determine them must take account of the various integration processes, which are particularly diversified and run in parallel in this region. Adopting a comparative perspective, this paper provides an overview of the various regional organisations in the West Africa/Sahel region. It analyses the potential of each of them in terms of their development prospects and sustainability. In addition to the critical relationship between ECOWAS and the AES, it also examines the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), the Integrated Develop-ment Authority of the Liptako-Gourma Region (Autorité de Liptako-Gourma – ALG) and the G5 Sahel, which is currently being dissolved. If the partnership between Germany and Europe on the one hand and the West African and Sahel states on the other is to be continued, it will be vital to adopt a pragmatic approach and maintain a political dialogue with all the partners. The states in this region are extremely important to Europe’s future development. Moreover, it is only through communication based on mutual respect underpinning cooperation in the economic and development sectors that the growing influence of political powers such as Russia and Iran – whose ideas, interests and values are not in line with the Western Atlantic model of democracy governed by the rule of law – can be curbed effectively.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

367. State Fragility and Development Cooperation: Putting the Empirics to Use in Policy and Planning

Author:
Charles Martin-Shields and Diana Koester
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
State fragility, which describes how different components of a state do (or do not) function, is a central concept for understanding how development activities and policies in complex political, humanitarian and conflict-affected contexts will (or will not) work in practice. Using fragility as a lens, we use feminist development policy and forced displacement as examples to demonstrate how different empirical conceptualisations of fragility can be used to uncover potential challenges and identify opportunities for more comprehensive policy and programming. These examples are only two ways one can apply the concepts of fragility of the OECD and the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS). Indeed, these and other empirical concepts of state fragility have many applications and can be used to measure and understand state–society, conflict and humanitarian dynamics in myriad ways. The longest-running among these kinds of models is the Fund for Peace’s Fragile States Index (Fund for Peace, 2023). Other models focus on state fragility as a function of different aspects of “stateness”. This includes IDOS’s Constellations of State Fragility typology, which clusters types of fragility based on strengths/weaknesses in key dimensions of statehood (Grävingholt et al., 2019). Some organisations have moved beyond an exclusive focus on the functioning of the state, with the OECD currently defining fragility contexts as the combination of risks and insufficient coping capacities of multiple levels of governance systems and/or communities to manage, absorb or mitigate those risks (OECD, 2016). The IDOS and OECD concepts do not rank countries, and the methods used in both models allow them to be applied to different levels of analysis. Essentially, these empirical conceptualisations of state fragility can serve as useful heuristics for the policy-makers responsible for setting policy agendas in fragile contexts.
Topic:
Development, Fragile States, Fragility, Cooperation, and Development Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

368. Getting Special Drawing Rights Right: Opportunities for Re-channelling SDRs to Vulnerable Countries

Author:
Jürgen K. Zattler
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Many developing countries are still grappling with the consequences of the pandemic and the associated high debt burdens while facing huge financing needs, inter alia related to climate change. In response, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued $650 billion in Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). The G7 and G20 have committed to re-channelling SDR 100 billion of their allocation to developing countries (on-lending, recycling and re-channelling are used interchangeably in this policy brief). The question now is how to implement these commitments in a way that promotes the global transformation and at the same time supports debt sustainability. It is important to note that there are certain restrictions on the re-channelling of SDRs. Most importantly, the re-channelling must be consistent with the SDR’s status as an international reserve asset. There are different interpretations of these requirements. The IMF has encouraged the use of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) and the Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) for re-channelling. It has also signalled general support for re-channelling SDRs to the multilateral development banks (MDBs). The European Central Bank (ECB) has taken a more restrictive stance. Does the re-channelling of SDRs through the above-mentioned IMF trusts (“the current on-lending option”) effectively support the global transformation? Measured against this objective, the current on-lending regime has two shortcomings. First, it does not sufficiently link foreign exchange support to deep structural transformation. Second, it does not allow funds to be leveraged in the private capital market. In this policy brief, we discuss a promising alternative: recycling SDRs for MDB hybrid capital (“the hybrid capital option”). This option can overcome the two drawbacks of the current system. At the same time, it has its own challenges. Moreover, both the current on-lending option and the hybrid capital option raise concerns about debt sustainability. If implemented in their current forms, they would risk exacerbating vulnerable countries’ debt problems. It would therefore be desirable to modify these options to better integrate debt implications. This could be done by using the on-lent SDRs primarily for programmes that are not “expenditure-based”, but rather help to improve the composition of expenditure and revenue in a socially equitable manner, for example the introduction of regulatory standards, feebates and carbon pricing, or the phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies. Such an approach could have the added benefit of making previously sceptical member states more receptive to the hybrid capital proposal. The mid-term review of the RST, scheduled for May 2024, as well as the full review in 2025 provide good opportunities to further explore some of the issues raised in this policy brief. In addition, the brief identifies three ways in which interested shareholders of the IMF and MDBs could advance the debate on the hybrid capital option.
Topic:
Development, Sustainability, COVID-19, and Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

369. "The Dead Became Uncountable": Mass Atrocities in Sudan

Author:
Danica Damplo
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
On April 15th, 2023, fighting broke out in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), headed by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and a powerful paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), headed by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti). The conflict has killed more than 13,000 people and displaced more than 7.3 million people.1 The RSF and its allied militias reignited a campaign of widespread, systematic, and ethnically-motivated violence in the region of Darfur, targeting non-Arab communities. Efforts by the United States (US) and others have failed to secure a durable ceasefire or to protect a new generation in Darfur from the risk of genocide. The conflict that began in April is a continuation of the cycles of violence that have persisted in Sudan for decades, including a period of mass atrocities in 2003-2005 in Darfur, for which former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir was charged with genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes by the International Criminal Court (ICC).2 The SAF and RSF had previously joined forces in 2019 to oust al-Bashir following widespread protests in which the Sudanese people called for transitional justice and a transition to democracy. However, in 2021, the SAF and RSF overthrew the transitional government that had replaced al-Bashir. In April 2023, disagreements between al-Burhan and Hemedti exploded into open warfare.3 While earlier conflicts had spared Sudan’s capital, since April civilians in Khartoum and nearby Omdurman have endured violent clashes, aerial bombardment, sexual violence, and a humanitarian crisis. The conflict spread, with the RSF seeking to control the Darfur region and branching out from the west, and the SAF based out of the city of Port Sudan in the east. The RSF is supplied by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), while the SAF is supported by Egypt.4 In June 2023, the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum sounded the alarm about the dire risk of genocide in Darfur.5 That risk remains high today. None of the conditions referenced in this warning have improved since June, and the numbers of civilians killed or harmed has risen dramatically. Among the communities at greatest risk today are those who survived genocide twenty years ago and who have continued to suffer since. This brief will detail mass atrocities underway in Sudan, highlight present and future risks not only in Darfur but elsewhere, and offer policy options for an effective response.
Topic:
Civil War, Armed Conflict, Atrocity Prevention, Protection, and Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and Darfur

370. Risk of Mass Atrocities in India

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
Rising levels of discrimination and dehumanization of minority communities in India is putting millions at an increased risk of mass atrocities. India has ranked in the top 15 countries at risk of mass killing since the Early Warning Project’s 2017–18 assessment, including its highest rank of second in the world last year.1 Since coming to power in 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have promoted a Hindu nationalist ideology that characterizes India’s Muslim minority population of approximately 200 million people, 14% of the population, as a threat to the security and success of India.2 This identity-based ideology also threatens the safety of other minorities and excluded groups, such as Christian communities and Dalits.3 India’s constitution enshrines egalitarian principles, including nondiscrimination on the basis of religious identity.4 In 2021, a study conducted by the Pew Research Center found that more than 3 out of 4 Indians of all faiths believed that religious tolerance is an important part of being “truly Indian.”5 However, proponents of a decades old Hindu nationalist ideology, Hindutva, believe instead that “Hinduism—not the precarious balancing of all ethnic and religious communities residing in India—is the ultimate source of the country’s identity,” and it is this ideology that is embraced by the BJP and Prime Minister Modi.6 Scott Straus, a leading scholar on mass atrocities, has summarized research about risk factors for anticipating whether mass atrocities are likely to occur in a particular country, and these include: the presence of instability or armed conflict; adherence by political elites to an exclusionary ideology; and a history of discrimination (with impunity) against a particular group.7 Today instability in India is arguably geographically limited, as with the outbreak of conflict in May 2023 in Manipur. India has experienced more widespread inter-communal violence and mass atrocities in the past, with an uneven record of accountability or redress. The BJP today promotes an exclusionary nationalist ideology which privileges the rights of Hindus and presents religious minorities, particularly Muslims, as social and cultural outsiders, and as political and physical threats. This is demonstrated through discriminatory legislation, and a barrage of hate speech, including by political and religious leaders, that has tipped into outright incitement to violence. If nothing is done to address these risks, India may continue to experience a rise in the number of violent (and fatal) attacks against religious minorities, an escalation in the scale of the violence, and an increased level of state involvement in atrocities. Many countries, including the United States, view India as an important strategic partner on multiple fronts, including economically and politically as a counter to China's influence in the region. This can make discussions of mass atrocity risk more sensitive, but it should also demonstrate the ways in which mass atrocities in India could reverberate. For example, violence in states along India’s borders with Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Burma could exacerbate insecurity in India’s neighbors. Discrimination and mass violence in India could also undermine the assumptions of stability and shared values on which global initiatives are being built.8
Topic:
Minorities, Discrimination, Narendra Modi, Atrocity Prevention, Protection, and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

371. India’s Service Sector: New Areas for Future Cooperation

Author:
Hyoungmin Han
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Given the growing significance of the Indo-Pacific region, the strategic importance of India is on the rise. With its considerable population and economic potential, India offers many opportunities for cooperation in various sectors. However, past cooperation between Korea and India has focused on the manufacturing sector. In order to consolidate economic ties be-tween Korea and India and to access the growing Indian market, cooperation in various industries, including services, is necessary. In this article, we will explore key aspects of India’s service industry and policy implications for better cooperation between two countries.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, Markets, Bilateral Relations, and Manufacturing
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, South Korea, and Indo-Pacific

372. China's Trade Strategies and Korea-China Cooperation Plans

Author:
Seung Shin Lee, Sang Baek Hyun, Su Yeob Na, and Young Sun Kim
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
As uncertainties in the global trade environment expand, China's trade strategy is changing, and these changes are expected to have a significant impact on our trade environment with China. This paper analyzed China's policies on new trade issues such as supply chain reorganization, digital trade, climate change response and proposed policy implications.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Trade, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and South Korea

373. Korea-India Economic Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific Era

Author:
Jeong Gon Kim, Kyunghoon Kim, Jonghun Pek, Yoo Jin Nam, and Wondeuk Cho
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
With the geopolitical and geoeconomic importance of the Indo-Pacific region in the spotlight, India's strategic value has come to the fore. The Korean government has included cooperation with India as a key task under its Indo-Pacific Strategy. This article aims to contribute to the establishment of economic cooperation with India from a medium- to long-term strategic perspective. Accordingly, this article analyzes the strategic changes of major countries towards India and India's response strategies, and the emerging agendas of economic cooperation between India and major countries. Lastly, this article proposes policy directions and key agendas for Korea-India economic cooperation.
Topic:
Economics, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
India, Asia, South Korea, and Indo-Pacific

374. Assessing ASEAN Economic Integration Progress and South Korea’s Approach Focusing on TBT and SPS

Author:
Sungil Kwak
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
TBT (Technical Barriers to Trade) and SPS (Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures) have two attributes. They act as barriers to trade expansion by protecting producers, but their importance has grown in terms of consumer protection measures after the COVID-19 pandemic. Rather than eliminating related regulations, achieving harmonization within the ASEAN region can simultaneously serve two objectives: expanding trade between South Korea and ASEAN and improving consumer protection. We assess the level of regional economic integration by measuring regulatory distances among ASEAN member states. We also measure regulatory distances between South Korea and ASEAN, and between Japan and ASEAN. We estimate the impact of ASEAN's TBT and SPS on the export performance of countries exporting goods to the ASEAN region.
Topic:
Regulation, Exports, Trade, ASEAN, COVID-19, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

375. Japan’s Supply Chain Policy and its Implications for South Korea

Author:
Gyu-Pan Kim
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This WEB paper analyzed Japan's supply chain policy in line with the implementation of Japan's Economic Security Promotion Act in May 2022, and presented policy implications such as supply chain cooperation between Korea and Japan. First, this paper analyzed the US-led reorganization of the global supply chain and the Japanese government's response to it. In particular, the Japanese government's economic security policy was evaluated from the perspective of how Japan approaches the US-led the global supply chain reorganization. Second, the Japanese government's supply chain policy was analyzed, focusing on the supply chain policy for some critical materials under the Economic Security Promotion Act. Finally, this paper proposed ways for Korea and Japan to cooperate in reshaping the global supply chain led by the United States.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

376. Korea’s Global Value Chain Strategies amid Rising Trade Disputes

Author:
Won Seok Choi
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This article explores the challenges and transformations in global economic governance, particularly in the context of China's rise, widening trade disputes, and the retreat of globalization. It discusses the reorganization of global supply chains and their implications for Korea, focusing on the policies of key countries like the United States, the European Union (EU), and China towards stabilizing and reorganizing supply chains, with an emphasis on transitioning to a green industrial structure and improving domestic industrial competitiveness, particularly in the semiconductor and secondary battery industries. Accordingly, this article analyzes Korea's dependency on imports for semiconductors and secondary batteries, noting significant increases in imports and the diversification of import sources. The analysis reveals Korea's high import dependence on specific countries for critical goods and materials, emphasizing the importance of supply chain cooperation with countries that have global export competitiveness.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Governance, Trade, Industry, and Value Chains
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

377. EU's “Open Strategic Autonomy” and its Implications for Korea

Author:
Youngook Jang
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This brief explores the shifting global trade landscape characterized by weakening globalization and rising protectionism, exacerbated by events such as the US-China trade disputes, COVID-19 pandemic, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It discusses how these factors have prompted a trend towards 'Open Strategic Autonomy' (OSA) in the European Union (EU), as evidenced by newly suggested industrial and trade policies. The EU's experiences during the pandemic and energy dependence on Russia have emphasized the need for resilient supply chains. The analysis draws from Jang et al. (2023) to examine how the EU's OSA has evolved in response to these changes, offering insights for policy implications for Korea.
Topic:
European Union, Trade, Supply Chains, Strategic Autonomy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

378. Analyzing South Korea’s Semiconductor Industry: Trade Dynamics and Global Position

Author:
Hyung-gon Jeong
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
U.S. sanctions on China's semiconductor industry are causing major shifts in the global supply chain, affecting South Korea's industry due to its reliance on Chinese manufacturing. The Biden administration's increased sanctions, combined with global trends towards semiconductor self-sufficiency, are putting South Korea's semiconductor position at risk. Countries such as the U.S., China, and Japan are building up their domestic semiconductor industries, potentially affecting South Korea's position in the global market. Deeply integrated with China, Korean companies, face the challenge of reducing this dependence and adapting to the evolving supply chain landscape. This paper examines the import and export trends of the South Korean semiconductor industry over the last five years to assess its global standing, identify challenges, and suggest strategic directions. Using data from the Korea Customs Service from 2019 to 2023, the study analyzes trade patterns and supply chain configurations within South Korea's semiconductor industry. The industry is divided into six main categories and 33 subcategories, based on the analysis of 381 semiconductor-related items categorized under the Harmonized System at the 10-digit level. This detailed classification allows for an in-depth examination of trade trends, supply chain structures, and associated risks within the South Korean semiconductor industry. Moreover, this research uses the classification method described and UN Comtrade statistics to create a dataset on global semiconductor trade. This dataset is used to analyze the international presence of the South Korean semiconductor industry and its market shares in China across different segments.
Topic:
Trade, Supply Chains, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and South Korea

379. North Korea’s 2023 Trade with China: Analysis and Forecasts

Author:
Jangho Choi and Yoojeong Choi
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This article analyzes North Korea-China trade trends and statistics in 2023 to evaluate the extent of North Korea's trade normalization and its performance. North Korea's trade with China increased by more than 120% compared to the previous year as the country declared a COVID-19 Endemic and gradually eased border controls, but did not recover to 2018-19 levels, the year before the outbreak of COVID-19. Imports to China recorded 2.00 billion, 124.1% higher than the 0.89 billion in 2022. North Korea's imports from China in 2023 are estimated to be the maximum achievable given the lack of a full resumption of over-land trade. However, as the negative impact of UN sanctions on the North Korean economy is ongoing, making it difficult to normalize industrial production. North Korea mainly imported raw materials for processing trade (textile and garment raw materials), staple foods (rice and sugar), agricultural materials (fertilizer), and construction materials from China in 2023. North Korea’s exports to China stood at 0.29 billion, up 118.4% from 0.13 billion in 2023. Exports remain at the 16.9% of the level before the tightening of UN sanctions on North Korea, as the country has failed to diversify its products and expand exports of major export items. Exports were highly dependent on specific products, wigs and false eyelashes, a labor-intensive industry, accounting for 57.1% of total exports. In spite of increasing wigs export, North Korea failed to further expand its amount and diversify the export items in the second half of the year. According to the analysis of trade statistics, the main goals of North Korea's 2023 US foreign economic policy are: (1) resuming smuggling trade in textiles and clothing, (2) building irrigation canals in preparation for summer floods, (3) implementing state-led grain distribution, (4) building living houses in a rural area, and (5) increasing metal production for Russian arms exports. Despite the increase in imports from China in the transition to the coronavirus pandemic, it is difficult to say that it has yet led to the recovery of industrial production and economic development. The future of North Korea's trade with the rest of the world in 2024 will be determined by whether North Korea fully opens its borders and improves its relations with China. In 2024, both North Korea's exports and imports are expected to be slightly higher than in 2023. North Korea's exports are unlikely to increase significantly, as North Korea-Russia military cooperation is expected to continue and China is likely to maintain its checks on the growing Sino-Russian alignment. Increased imports will lead to a larger trade deficit, but it will be within North Korea's ability to manage for one to two years.
Topic:
Economics, Border Control, Trade, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and North Korea

380. Multidimensional Impact of COVID-19 on Education and Implications on Inclusive Recovery

Author:
Gee Young Oh
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This report aims to present the findings of Oh et al. (2023), which analyzes the post-pandemic inequality levels in developing countries and derives policy implications for Korea's international development cooperation (IDC) to help reduce inequality, especially in the education sector. The impact of COVID-19 on education is multidimensional, with varying levels of heterogeneity across countries, regions, households, and individual stakeholders, including students, parents, and teachers. To comprehensively understand this multidimensionality, the study compares situations in two countries to explore inter- and intra-country educational disparities. After identifying such multidimensionality, the study derives policy implications on how Korea’s IDC can better target post-pandemic inequality in education.
Topic:
Development, Education, International Cooperation, Inequality, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

381. The Mobility Key: Realizing the Potential of Refugee Travel Documents

Author:
Samuel Davidoff-Gore
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
Governments are increasingly experimenting with new mobility pathways for refugees, beyond traditional resettlement operations. These include complementary pathways that connect refugees with work or study opportunities in a country other than the one in which they first sought safety—expanding their future prospects while easing pressure on top refugee-hosting countries. Refugees’ ability to take up these and other opportunities abroad depends to a significant extent on their access to the travel documents required to reach their destination. Yet refugees are generally unable to safely use the most common travel document: a passport issued by a person’s country of origin. This policy brief—part of the Beyond Territorial Asylum: Making Protection Work in a Bordered World initiative led by MPI and the Robert Bosch Stiftung—outlines the different types of travel documents that can facilitate refugees’ movement and key barriers to acquiring and using them. It also identifies steps that countries of asylum, transit, and destination, along with donors and international organizations, can take to overcome these challenges.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Organization, Border Control, Refugees, Asylum, and Protection
Political Geography:
Global Focus

382. Foreign Interference Online: Where Disinformation Infringes on Freedom of Thought

Author:
Wesley Wark
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
“Foreign interference targeting democratic societies works not by the classic Orwellian formula of ruthless powers limiting sources of information and knowledge,” Wesley Wark writes, but by “multiplying and amplifying chosen channels of information, and attempting to corrupt the availability of true information in favour of that which is both false and harmful.” At their most intense, disinformation campaigns amount to “cognitive warfare, a hostile attempt to alter thinking.” In a social media–saturated world, these operations find many and diverse channels for disinformation’s spread, which depends on the inculcation of “fearful unknowing” in the targeted, often vulnerable, audience. A campaign’s objectives might be both direct and indirect: an aim to influence electoral outcomes could overlap with a broader goal to undermine confidence in democratic processes. Public attention to the issue of foreign state interference, as recently experienced in Canada and currently the subject of a judicial inquiry, is the first indicator that freedom of thought principles might be in play. Wark suggests ways to counter these campaigns, beginning with government taking the lead in enhancing public understanding of all national security threats, including those posed by disinformation.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Democracy, Internet, Social Media, Disinformation, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Canada and Global Focus

383. Protecting Freedom of Thought: Mitigating Technological Enablers of Disinformation

Author:
Alexa Raad
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
It has been said that a lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes. Social media and internet ad-supported business models that capitalize on capturing attention have introduced powerful technological enablers that are supercharging the targeting, dissemination and amplification of false information online. Influence operations have been quick to use these tools to manipulate and compromise freedom of thought. Assuming these ad-based business models are here to stay, at least for now, steps must be taken to address the problematic elements that influence operators are leveraging. Remediation efforts must both prevent amplification of harmful content, and increase the risk, cost and complexity to the influence operator. Alexa Raad describes frameworks that can be used to analyze the stages, tactics, techniques and procedures used in influence operations, and outlines the need in the United States for regulation in four areas — actions which, alongside effective public-private collaboration and increased media literacy, would help to “mitigate the pollution of our information ecosystem and protect our freedom of thought.”
Topic:
Security, Governance, Regulation, Internet, Disinformation, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

384. New Logics for Governing Human Discourse in the Online Era

Author:
Richard Reisman
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The democratization of access to online media tools is driving a transformation of human discourse that is disrupting freedom of thought. This shift in the flow of thought is being encoded into a global infrastructure dominated by commercial platform companies whose operations co-opt individual, collective and governmental agency. In this policy brief, Richard Reisman argues that attempts to govern these tools are relying on “yesterday’s logic.” The new logic, largely unrecognized, relates to acceleration of word-of-mouth propagation, much like rumouring, putting the listener’s freedom of impression, rather than the speaker’s freedom of expression, at the fore. Reisman writes that governance is needed to restore individual and community agency, which could re-energize the vision of technology as “bicycles for our minds,” enabling individuals and society to flourish and maintain resilience in an increasingly challenging world.
Topic:
Governance, Democracy, Internet, Emerging Technology, and Discourse
Political Geography:
Global Focus

385. How does the attempted assassination of Trump affect the American political landscape?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On July 13, 2024, former U.S. President and current presidential candidate Donald Trump faced an assassination attempt during an election rally in Pennsylvania. This incident occurred just days before the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where Trump is anticipated to be officially nominated as the party’s candidate for the November elections. The attempt resulted in Trump being grazed by a bullet on his ear. Following the incident, he posted on his "Truth Social" platform: "A bullet grazed the upper part of my right ear." The Secret Service announced in a statement that one attendee was killed, two others were critically injured, and the assassin was also killed. It is important to note that this is not the first instance of a failed assassination attempt on Trump. Each attempt came perilously close to succeeding, but the assailants were thwarted at the last moment.
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Assassination
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

386. Why has the Global Demand for Uranium Increased Recently?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
As the world transitions to electricity to combat climate change, nuclear energy is poised to become an increasingly vital component of the global energy mix. New nuclear power projects have recently reached unprecedented levels, with more than 20 countries pledging to triple global nuclear capacity by 2050. China alone plans to construct at least 150 new reactors in the next 15 years, investing over USD 440 billion. India has also announced ambitious plans to increase its nuclear capacity from 6,780 megawatts to 22,480 megawatts by 2031. This surge in nuclear energy development persists despite several factors complicating the rise of uranium as a coveted metal. Chief among these are: the significant and steady decline in investment in uranium exploration and mine development over the past decade, particularly following the Fukushima incident in 2011; governments' focus on solar and wind energy; and the recent Western sanctions imposed on Russia, which have complicated the process of importing Russian uranium (especially with a complete ban on imports to the United States). Additionally, high inflation and interest rates have led to increased costs for new and existing uranium mining projects. Furthermore, conflicts in Niger have resulted in the loss of 5% of the world's uranium supply, representing more than 24% of the European Union's uranium imports.
Topic:
Climate Change, Uranium, Nuclear Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

387. Analyzing How the Tools of the British Far-Right Have Evolved

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Since July 30, 2024, several British cities and towns have been gripped by a wave of far-right violence described as the worst since World War II. This outbreak followed the killing of three girls in a knife attack at a children's party in Southport, northwest Britain. The violence involved a series of criminal and inflammatory actions in what appear to be coordinated efforts to thwart immigration and intimidate minorities in Britain. This reflects the British far-right's ability to utilize and even evolve its traditional tools to adapt to the current context and available resources.
Topic:
Immigration, Violence, Far Right, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, and Europe

388. What are the Potential Consequences of the Current Crisis in Bangladesh?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The sudden collapse of Sheikh Hasina's government after 15 years in power has left a dangerous void in Bangladesh, a nation of 170 million people. The long-standing Prime Minister resigned following violent demonstrations and fled to neighboring India after protesters stormed her official residence. The situation on the ground has become volatile amidst the power vacuum. The military has since appointed a caretaker government led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate and economist Muhammad Yunus, who was previously considered an opponent by Hasina's Awami League government and was accused of corruption. The conviction, however, was overturned by the court following the collapse of the Awami League's rule and Hasina's escape. The key question now is whether the military will play a role in the country's future or if Yunus, in collaboration with the nascent student movement, can tackle the political, economic, and regional challenges facing Bangladesh—especially since the economist has announced his intention to call for general elections after a period of "stability."
Topic:
Economy, Domestic Politics, Protests, Crisis Management, Civil Unrest, Military, and Sheikh Hasina
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

389. The Role of Multilateral Development Banks in Financing Energy Transition in South America

Author:
Maria Elena Rodriguez, Rafaela Mello Rodrigues de Sá, Octávio Henrique Alves Costa de Oliveira, and Renan Guimarães Canellas de Oliveira
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
BRICS Policy Center
Abstract:
With the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, the world institutionalized the goal of keeping global temperature rise below 2ºC, based on efforts to adapt to and mitigate climate change. It is in this context that the actors involved presented their commitments to establish policies and strategies to reduce carbon emissions in different sectors of the economy. This process of reducing emissions can be called decarbonization and consists of replacing fossil energy sources with clean renewables, in addition to encouraging the use of electrification technology, such as electric cars. This movement promotes transformation toward a low-carbon economy in various sectors. In the energy sector, this transformation is called the clean energy transition, as it attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the energy matrix. For this to happen, increasing the use of renewables over using fossil fuels such as coal and oil is encouraged.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Finance, Multilateralism, Paris Agreement, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

390. Ensuring protection in humanitarian emergencies: A framework for Australia

Author:
Jane McAdam and Regina Jefferies
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Andrew & Renata Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law at UNSW Sydney
Abstract:
The purpose of this Policy Brief is to recommend a framework for humanitarian emergencies that would enable the Australian government to provide a streamlined, equitable, predictable and effective response to assist people facing a real risk of persecution, extreme danger or other serious harm to find safety and protection in Australia. It is informed by Australia’s practices over time, as well as comparative practices internationally. The framework is designed with the Australian context in mind, but it could also be used as a model for other countries.2 It encompasses both legal protection (visas and access to support) and physical protection (evacuation and reception). In a crisis, moving away from danger is a natural and rational human response. Whereas some people will have the financial resources, immigration documentation and networks to facilitate their rapid departure, others may be unable to move or find themselves ‘trapped’ by their circumstances. They may have acute protection needs that cannot be addressed unless they can reach a place of safety. In some cases, evacuations will be a necessary first step; in others, people will be able to move on their own. In all cases, non-citizens will require visas and identity documents to move lawfully. As such, this Policy Brief has a particular focus on visa pathways, since they are the gateway to everything else. Four recent conflicts in Afghanistan (2021–), Ukraine (2022–), Sudan (2023–) and Gaza (2023–) have seen large numbers of people unable to leave dangerous situations. In each case, Australia’s humanitarian response has been different. For some groups, acquiring a visa to escape and travel to Australia has been relatively easy; for others, it has been impossible. Varying visa entitlements also mean that, even among those who do manage to escape, some people have work rights, health entitlements and access to a wide range of services, while others are barely surviving. Concerns have been expressed by the refugee sector, affected communities, experts and Parliamentary inquiries about these divergent and, at times, inadequate approaches. As the Refugee Council of Australia has observed, ‘the measures have been uneven, unpredictable and in some cases, created significant gaps in critical support including access to health, education and employment’.3 This Policy Brief proposes a framework for humanitarian emergencies which could be activated in whole or in part, depending on the circumstances. The framework would be additional and complementary to Australia’s existing Refugee and Humanitarian Program, and it would provide an equitable and robust foundation to enable agile responses that could be quickly tailored to specific conditions. It envisages both physical and legal mechanisms to facilitate people’s safe and swift departure; clear lines of authority; processes for consultation across different levels of government and with relevant stakeholders; identified reception facilities for evacuees (if physical evacuation is necessary); and a visa with appropriate supports and pathways to durable solutions,4 including for affected individuals who are already in Australia when a humanitarian emergency is declared.5 To be effective, the framework would require multi-sectoral engagement, planning and coordination, particularly in terms of facilitating arrivals and ensuring that people in Australia are properly supported. Its implementation must be human-centred and supported by trauma-informed approaches that recognise and promote people’s dignity, agency and human rights, with special attention given to those with particular needs or in vulnerable circumstances.6 While existing frameworks, such as the federal Australian Government Crisis Management Framework (AGCMF)7 and state-based DISPLANS may be instructive, none provides an adequate template for present purposes (see Recommendations 2 and 3). The recommendations in this Policy Brief align with and complement proposals by other key actors in the refugee sector, most notably the Refugee Council of Australia and Settlement Services International, and we thank them for their positive engagement and insights. Australia has an opportunity to envision a bold, dynamic and forward-looking framework to protect people in humanitarian emergencies. It is a chance to build upon good practices from historical and comparative responses, signalling Australia’s clear commitment to international solidarity and responsibility-sharing.8 Furthermore, as a leading resettlement state, Australia has the capacity to demonstrate how States can respond to humanitarian emergencies in a timely, well considered and compassionate manner.
Topic:
Humanitarian Crisis, Protection, and Migration Policy
Political Geography:
Australia

391. Resource curse or darling: Rethinking EU energy interests in Kazakhstan

Author:
Giulia Cretti and Louise Van Schaik
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
With its abundant natural resources and potential for renewable energy production, Kazakhstan – one of world’s most important fossil fuel producers – will play an increasingly prominent role in EU energy security. In the Central Asian Republic, geopolitical players like Russia and China have long-standing security and economic interests and compete with the EU for access to resources. To build a sustainable energy partnership with Kazakhstan that moves beyond a fossil fuel-interdependent relationship, the EU needs to further operationalise its green energy diplomacy based on local needs. This policy brief highlights two key areas of mutually beneficial cooperation: green hydrogen and critical raw materials. The EU could support Kazakhstan with developing its own clean industry locally, which would facilitate domestic decarbonisation and socioeconomic development rather than simply the export of raw materials. Moreover, investments in the Kazakh renewable energy sector need to go hand in hand with a gradual phase-out of oil and gas investments from European energy companies. This would reduce the security risks of continued fossil fuel dependency on the stability of the country.
Topic:
Natural Resources, European Union, Partnerships, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Kazakhstan

392. How the Aid Fund for Northern Syria can upgrade humanitarian aid and EU geopolitical engagement

Author:
Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
UN bureaucratic inertia, weak leadership, Stockholm syndrome and a laissez-faire attitude by donors have allowed structural problems with humanitarian aid delivery in Syria to persist for too long. These problems include regime capture of aid, dependency on Damascus to deliver aid cross-border and, more recently, too much focus on lifesaving aid. The coming humanitarian funding crunch demands that these problems are finally addressed at pain of a rapid increase in the misery of millions of Syrians. This will have consequences both in terms of local predation and international migration. The Aid Fund for Northern Syria (AFNS) could be the vehicle to break existing molds due to its more diverse governance structure, independence of both Damascus and the UN, greater focus on Early Recovery and an innovative, if emergent, localisation strategy. As a bonus, it can support a pragmatic conflict management strategy for northern Syria based on the ‘safe, calm and neutral environment’ concept of the 2012 Geneva Communiqué and UNSCR 2254. Donors should consider the practical actions proposed in this brief to put their money where their mouths are.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, European Union, Geopolitics, and Donors
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Syria

393. How Dutch farmers’ protests evolved into political mobilisation

Author:
Camille van Hees, Louise Van Schaik, and Pieter Zwaan
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The early signs of the now omnipresent polarisation between farmers’ interests and environmental goals began to appear in the Netherlands in 2019. That year saw both the launch of the European Green Deal as the EU’s overarching growth strategy and the establishment of a political party representing farmers’ interests in the Netherlands, the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB). Five years later, the Green Deal has lost its appeal and the BBB is likely to enter government, although electorally the party seems past its peak. Farmers are now protesting across Europe and many oppose, in particular, EU environmental policies they consider overly bureaucratic and damaging to their business. The European Christian democrats (EPP) have clearly repositioned themselves as representatives of agricultural interests. They are keen to keep the rural vote, which is also sensitive to other more conservative and right-wing issues. In the Netherlands, this became clear in the most recent general elections where populist parties managed to attract a large part of the (rural) vote and where Geert Wilders’ anti-migration Freedom Party (PVV) became the biggest with about 25%. In this policy brief, we will zoom in on the events that shaped the rise of the BBB and led to the current political situation in the Netherlands. On that basis, this policy brief looks at how the Dutch case could be a prologue for the forthcoming European Parliament elections.
Topic:
Protests, Political Movements, Mobilization, Green Deal, and Farmers
Political Geography:
Europe and Netherlands

394. Stabilisation and the Central Sahel

Author:
Ekaterina Golovko and Kars de Bruijne
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The international community hasn’t been successful in its efforts to support ‘stabilisation’ in the central Sahel. To learn lessons from recent engagement, this policy brief seeks to make three contributions to an already long list of ‘strategic misfits’. First, that ‘stabilisation responses’ are built on the wrong assumption “to bring back the state” and “expand state presence”, without serious work on how to reform the state that had to be brought back. Second, that external actors – and in particular Western governments – consistently overestimated their ability to influence and effect real change in the region and have to become more modest in their objectives. Third, that there is an urgent need to apply these lessons to the new area of policy attention: coastal countries of West Africa and the fight against violent extremism. This policy brief calls for a stronger reflection on what decades of largely failing Sahelian policy can tell us about how to engage with Coastal West Africa.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Countering Violent Extremism, and Stabilization
Political Geography:
Africa and Sahel

395. Examining the interplay between elites and social movements in Jordan

Author:
Matteo Colombo
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This Policy Brief offers insights into the bargaining process that both reflects and sets limits for political change in Jordan. It argues that neither permissiveness to organise protests nor their actual occurrence improves the prospects of meaningful political reforms. Instead, protests usually serve as a strategic tool in the interests of particular elites. In Jordan, elites and social movements commonly develop vertical ties instead of different social movements working together to press for change bottom-up, as is more usual elsewhere. Broadly, Jordan’s political context makes it possible for elites and political authorities to co-opt social movements by supporting limited changes that respond to their demands, as long as these fit within the prevailing political settlement. Ultimately, protests tend to reinforce the status quo rather than challenging it. Social movements are therefore faced with the dilemma of accepting co-optation to facilitate incremental changes, or to stick to a more radical stance that risks being ineffective or even triggering repression. But mounting economic headwinds mean that some reform of Jordan’s political system is inevitable if political instability is to be avoided. Mechanisms such as referendums and popular initiatives can provide a viable path forward if they are designed to operate on the frontiers of the existing framework and respect the position of the monarchy. Such initiatives can engage citizens more directly in reform processes and ensure their voices are heard in a more meaningful way. Jordan’s dependence on foreign funding provides European policy makers with a lever to condition continuous support on steps in this direction.
Topic:
Social Movement, Reform, Domestic Politics, Protests, Elites, and Cooptation
Political Geography:
Middle East and Jordan

396. Can Europe and India deepen ties through critical raw materials cooperation?

Author:
Emil Havstrup and Louise Van Schaik
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Europe and India are rapidly embarking on a clean energy transition with the share of renewables skyrocketing in their respective energy mixes. This heightens concerns about dependence on critical raw materials (CRMs), such as cobalt, nickel and graphite, that are needed for renewable energy technologies, and whose supply chains are largely dominated by singular exporters such as China. It is not the case that Europe and India lack reserves of, for instance, lithium, but there are barriers to extracting them, and even if new mining activities are undertaken, it will take time. This policy brief reviews how the two parties are juggling with their dependence on China-dominated CRM dependent value chains. Both realise that derisking, diversification and/or decoupling cannot be easily and quickly achieved. While the EU is nervous about being drawn into a wider regional conflict between the United States and China, India’s attempts to deal with the China threat has drawn it into various issue-based strategic partnerships. It makes sense for the two blocs to reframe the discussion on de-risking and instead cooperate on joint investments into Research & Development into alternatives to some CRMs, developing competitive supply chains for new materials and cooperating on the re-use and recycling of existing materials.
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, Geopolitics, Renewable Energy, and Raw Materials
Political Geography:
China, Europe, India, and Asia

397. NATO Summits: Looking ahead from Washington to The Hague

Author:
Dick Zandee and Roman de Baedts
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The July 2024 NATO Summit in Washington DC confirmed that the Alliance is ‘back to the future’. Upon its 75th anniversary NATO took important decisions to further strengthen its political-military power in response to a variety of security challenges, in particular to the threat posed by Russia. Increased defence spending is starting to deliver results in improving the military capabilities of European Allies. NATO’s partnerships with the EU and with countries in the Pacific have been reinforced. Yet, dark clouds are hanging above the Alliance on its way from Washington to its next Summit in The Hague (June 2025). First and foremost, the US presidential elections on 5 November cast a shadow over the transatlantic cooperation, or even worse, may result in a category 5 hurricane for NATO if Donald Trump re-enters the White House. American military support for Ukraine could stop completely, increasing the pressure on European Allies to do more, or to end their ‘whatever it takes’ rhetoric. To ensure the US contribution to NATO, European Allies will need to step up their defence efforts, even under Democratic President Kamala Harris. The American focus on the Indo-Pacific/China is raising questions about the European role and contribution to the Alliance as well as to the Asia-Pacific region. This policy brief will address these major issues for the Alliance on the road from Washington to The Hague.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Alliance, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

398. European defence industry: urgent action is needed!

Author:
Dick Zandee
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
By invading Ukraine in February 2022 Russia has thrown the European security order into the waste bin. In essence, the Western reaction has been ‘we will not fight, but we will support Ukraine in its war effort’. Western countries have delivered a wide variety of weapon systems. Although this support has been vital for Ukraine’s defence, it has resulted in minimum levels of American and European arms and ammunition stocks. As a consequence, the burning question is how to ramp up the defence industrial production, in particular as the armed confrontation in Ukraine has developed into a war of attrition. The EU has launched several initiatives to support member states in procuring replacement equipment and ammunition to be delivered to Ukraine. At the same time, European countries have to strengthen their own defence capabilities in order to increase their share of the burden of NATO’s collective defence, while also realising more European autonomy. In the EU, there is broad political support for the strengthening of the European Defence Industrial and Technological Base, not only for economic reasons but as a necessary precondition for Europe’s security. However, despite this urgent call, industrial production is lagging behind, endangering both Ukraine’s war effort and the strengthening of European security and defence. This policy brief assesses how the EU is responding to the urgent challenge of adapting its defence industry to the requirements resulting from the new security environment. The central question is what should be done in order to change gear for increasing the production of ammunition and weapon systems. After assessing the consequences of the changed security situation for European capability needs, the author addresses the steps so far taken by the EU and the challenges lying ahead as the war will continue in 2024 and perhaps even beyond. The final section presents ten concrete action lines to overcome the obstacles for ramping and speeding up European defence industrial production.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Defense Industry, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

399. Towards an EU geopolitical approach on transformative terms in the Western Balkans

Author:
Wouter Zweers
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This policy brief assesses the EU response after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in Serbia, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina, asking how the EU can pursue a geopolitical EU enlargement approach while maintaining its transformative objectives. The brief first provides a concise assessment of the instruments that the EU employs to strengthen democratic resilience and to counter Russian influence in the three countries. We argue that the EU has a comprehensive and effective range of instruments available, even if Russia has maintained its ability to project especially ‘soft’ power. However, when looking at the overall EU political approach towards these countries, we observe negative effects of the manner in which geopolitical imperatives for enhanced engagement are currently converted into strategy and discourse. More specifically, an insufficiently overarching firm and confident EU political approach towards the Western Balkans undermines the transformative potential of the EU’s impressive toolbox for the region. The brief concludes that by becoming more confident and upfront, sticking to its values and making use of negative conditionality besides offering positive incentives, the EU can pursue a more effective geopolitical approach on transformative terms towards the Western Balkans.
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Serbia, Balkans, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

400. De-risking by promoting digital solutions for green tech: Going Dutch?

Author:
Alexandre Ferreira Gomes, Giulia Cretti, and Maaike Okano-Heijmans
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions, the growing demand for technologies that will accelerate the green transition exposes European countries to risks. Most attention is devoted to strategic dependencies on China for critical raw materials (CRM) and components that are necessary for such technologies. However, the data-driven digital elements and applications used, for instance, to optimise energy use are also relevant, as they intensify cybersecurity and data privacy-related concerns. To de-risk Europe’s strategic dependencies in this field, adopting a balanced approach between ‘promoting’, ‘protecting’ and ‘partnering’ is essential. This Clingendael Policy Brief focuses on the ‘promote’ angle by exploring the role of the Dutch government and private sector in fostering the Dutch digital green-tech industry. With its track record in innovation within the EU, the Netherlands is well placed to boost the commercialisation of digital green technologies through procurement. Moreover, the Netherlands could lead the discussions on defining cybersecurity standards and interoperability norms at EU and international forums.
Topic:
Partnerships, Green Technology, Digital Technologies, and Critical Raw Materials (CRM)
Political Geography:
Europe and Netherlands