Content Type: Policy Brief / Publication Year: within 10 Years and within 5 Years / Topic: Development

1. What Does It Mean for Agencies to Be Effective in a Changing Development Landscape?

Author:: Rachael Calleja, Sara Casadevall Bellés, and Beata Cichocka
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: For official bilateral development agencies, the realities of providing effective development cooperation are increasingly complex, as competing demands and changing international and domestic contexts are raising fundamental questions around what it means to be an effective agency. This paper explores the concept of agency effectiveness to demonstrate why agencies – and their leadership – should consider how their structures and processes interact with the changing landscape as part of their efforts to remain relevant and resilient. To do so, we consider how the current challenges facing agencies – including the need to respond to climate change, global instability, and changing domestic political environments – affect why agencies act, what they do, and how they do it. We then explore dominant understandings of agency effectiveness, which provide a lens for thinking about what it may mean for agencies to be effective in the years ahead. Overall, we suggest that the challenges facing development agencies in the changing landscape raise key issues for agencies to consider, particularly around what they prioritise, how they are structured, and the capabilities or ways of working needed to respond to complex demands. While there is unlikely to be a single approach for agencies looking to adapt to changing contexts, considering the implications of new – and future – pressures for the work of development agencies will be a necessary first step towards supporting their resilience and relevance in the years ahead.
Topic:: Development, Humanitarian Aid, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2. Planned Relocation of Climate-Vulnerable Communities: Preparing Multilateral Development Banks

Author:: Steven Goldfinch and Samuel Huckstep
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Planned relocation of highly climate-vulnerable communities is becoming increasingly necessary as climate shocks become more frequent and intense. It is also becoming more feasible as modelling of future scenarios improves and adaptation limits become clearer. Despite this, many governments are underprepared for planning and implementing planned relocation projects. In the absence of an intergovernmentally agreed framework or set of principles on planned relocation, development finance, and specifically climate finance, is not well positioned to respond to this emerging demand from countries. This is heightened by a widespread absence of coherent domestic policies, and by institutional gaps in international assistance. Multilateral development banks, in particular, could be well-placed to fill this gap. They have extensive experience in undertaking relocation projects, including in contexts of climate adaptation. Multilateral development banks will increasingly field borrower country demand for both technical and financial assistance. They are, however, not yet prepared to meet this demand, nor are countries adequately equipped to make applications for support. This paper outlines emerging public policy regarding planned relocation, draws from existing standards on development-forced displacement and resettlement, and explores entry points for development financiers in providing technical assistance and finance. The paper proposes recommendations to multilateral development banks and the global climate funds on engaging in this emerging area.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Refugees, Displacement, Resettlement, and Banking
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3. A silver lining? The US aid freeze should spur Nigeria to greater self-reliance

Author:: Julia Bello-Schunemann
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Foreign aid has never been the solution to Nigeria’s multiple development challenges. However, the halt to US development assistance1 and the de facto shutdown of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) will cause additional hardship for Nigeria’s most vulnerable. Modelling based on the International Futures model (IFs)2 , a forecasting platform housed at the University of Denver, suggests that the decision could push approximately 700 000 additional Nigerians into extreme poverty by 2030. The health sector is disproportionately affected by the freeze as it depends excessively on US aid, primarily for the fight against HIV/AIDS and other infectious diseases. Nigeria is one of 10 countries globally that are most reliant on US funding3 for HIV medicines. The US policy shift is a wake-up call for the Tinubu administration to rise to the task of mobilising domestic funds to provide essential services to the population.
Topic:: Development, Foreign Aid, USAID, and Health Sector
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, Nigeria, and United States of America

4. Understanding the Impact of Remittances on Mexico’s Economy and Safeguarding Their Future Impact

Author:: Ryan C. Berg, Rubi Bledsoe, and Michael Ferguson
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Beyond providing supplemental income for Mexican households, remittances—funds sent by migrants to friends and families in their home country—provide a stable flow of developmental finance to the poorest subregions of the country, which have not historically benefited from international capital flows, such as development aid or foreign direct investment. Mexico, the world’s second-largest recipient of remittances, has seen a steady increase in the total volume of remittances received, primarily due to the strength of the U.S. labor market and concurrent wage growth among Mexican workers in the United States. Mechanisms to keep remittances secure are not impermeable to criminal organizations, which have been known to use small-increment deposits to launder gains from illicit economic activity, including drug trafficking. However, through increased U.S.-Mexico cooperation, both countries can strike the delicate balance between facilitating flows of remittances to promote development and financial inclusion and securing those funds from exploitation by illicit actors.
Topic:: Development, Economy, Trade, Economic Security, and Remittances
Political Geography:: North America and Mexico

5. Allocating international loss and damage finance through national climate funds: prospects for African LDCs

Author:: Mariya Aleksandrova, Washington Onyango Kanyangi, Assouhan Jonas Atchadé, Joanes Atela, and Charles Tonui
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The new loss and damage funding framework under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) emphasises the importance of channelling support through national systems and mechanisms. This approach could prove particularly challenging for African least developed ountries (LDCs), which have been prioritised for support. These countries remain confronted with major challenges to access and utilise international climate finance, especially through direct access. National climate funds (NCFs) can have a potential role in delivering international loss and damage finance to African LDCs that is in line with their national priorities. NCFs can be defined as entities mandated to finance the implementation of national climate strategies and to manage and/or coordinate domestic and international sources of climate finance. NCFs can enhance the institutional capacities of countries by supporting the development of loss and damage strategies, facilitating access to international funding, aligning resource allocation with local priorities, and ensuring the effective tracking of loss and damage finance. This Policy Brief explores the role of NCFs in the evolving global loss and damage finance architecture with a focus on African LDCs. We examine the design features of five NCFs against criteria for assessing their relevance to support measures that address loss and damage. The studied NCFs are: the Benin National Fund for Environment and Climate, Ethiopia’s Climate-Resilient Green Economy Facility, Burkina Faso’s Intervention Fund for the Environment, the Mali Climate Fund and the Rwanda Green Climate Fund. Key policy messages • Despite that only a limited number of African LDCs have established NCFs, these demonstrate their potential to channel loss and damage funding, especially for environmental rehabilitation and climate-resilient recovery efforts. Particular strengths relate to their role in priority sectors for climate change adaptation and in relation to biodiversity loss, drought, land degradation and desertification. • Existing NCFs in African LDCs have inadequate mandates and capacities to manage the complex funding needed for loss and damage. An emerging issue is their presently limited role in linking climate and disaster risk finance. • The NCFs of African LDCs can be instrumental to promote coherence and complementarity with other funding sources at the national level. Countries must establish comprehensive legislative, policy and regulatory frameworks to define the institutional roles of NCFs in loss and damage response, supported by international funding to strengthen their institutional capacities.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Climate Finance, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Africa

6. Enhancing public works programmes: sustainable impact through participatory asset creation and digitalisation

Author:: Francesco Burchi and Tekalign Gutu Sakketa
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Public works programmes (PWPs) are widely used social protection instruments in low- and middle-income countries. Participants carry out temporary, labour-intensive works in exchange for cash or in-kind compensation. The available empirical evidence indicates that these programmes are usually effective in improving outcomes such as food security and earnings in the short term, but these positive effects rarely persist in the long term. Our knowledge of PWPs’ effectiveness is, however, incomplete as scholars have mostly examined programme impacts through the wage channel, largely neglecting the skill-development and, especially, the asset channels. PWP participants engage in the construction of assets, such as roads, check dams and sewage systems, that could provide important benefits for the whole community. Without assessing these effects, it is normal to arrive at the general (biased) conclusion that cash transfers (CTs) are always more cost-effective than PWPs. Moreover, the effectiveness of PWPs largely depends on programme design, implementation and context. Based on the existing empirical evidence and our recent fieldwork to analyse Malawi’s PWP, this policy brief provides the following policy recommendations for how to enhance the potential of these programmes. • Policy-makers should design PWPs to guarantee stable, reliable employment; set wages not higher than market levels but high enough to incentivise participation; ensure transparency in the targeting, possibly by involving communities and at the sametime avoiding elite capture; align the timing of work cycles with local agricultural calendars; and assign tasks in a way that reduces travel burdens,especially for women. • Policy-makers should promote active community participation in the identification and maintenance of the assets created through PWPs. Evidence points to the importance of community participation for the implementation of higher quality infrastructure and better long-term maintenance. Only in this way, can these assets provide sustainable benefits not just for programme participants, but for the entire community. Approaches like those used in Ethiopia and Malawi can serve as models to enhance active community participation in the programme cycle. • Digitalisation of PWPs (and social protection ingeneral) should be promoted as it offers great advantages, but specific measures should be adopted to avoid their negative consequences: 1. The construction of a digital registry of beneficiaries is a great tool to reach the intended beneficiaries and coordinate the various schemes. Development cooperation actors should provide technical support for the creation and updating of these databases, then leave them in the hands of national institutions. 2. The digitalisation of reporting systems for work activities is likely to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the information reported. To achieve this, it is essential to provide the “digitisers” withproper training. 3. It is important to move from physical cash payments to e-payments, but it is firstly necessary to ensure adequate digital literacy through training. Moreover, to compensate for the impossibility to interact with programme officials at the time of payment, PWPs should include complaint handling points, as is done in India.
Topic:: Development, Digitalization, Assets, and Social Protection
Political Geography:: Global Focus

7. Securing a development-friendly US trade policy: the urgent need for an AGOA revamp

Author:: Wolfgang Britz, Zoryana Olekseyuk, and Tim Vogel
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: In times of heightened uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, it is increasingly vital to secure a development-friendly approach toward African countries. They are among the most vulnerable to climate change, conflicts and pandemics, yet are also gaining geo-economic significance. Given the expiry of the US Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) in 2020 and the upcoming expiry of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in September 2025, Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries urge policymakers to timely reauthorise and upgrade the non-reciprocal trade programme to improve market access to the US and ensure long-term support for sustainable development across the African continent. While the AGOA Renewal and Improvement Act of 2024 was introduced to Congress with bipartisan support, the election of Donald Trump and his “America First” approach have increased doubts about a swift extension of AGOA. This policy brief examines the potential effects of the expirations of GSP and AGOA using a multi-region Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. By simulating the shift from duty-free to Most Favoured Nation (MFN) treatment, we find the following: All in all, aggregated effects over all countries are rather muted while some specific countries face strong losses. Whereas bilateral exports of AGOA-eligible countries to the US decline by 3.7%, their total exports fall by only 0.1%, with real GDP remaining almost unaffected. Looking more closely, specific SSA countries would face high bilateral losses: The most substantial reduction of exports to the US occurs in Lesotho (-35%), Malawi (-25%) and Kenya (-16%), while welfare decline is the highest in Lesotho and Mauritius. The most affected sectors are sugar, wearing apparel, leather, dairy products, and beverages and tobacco. The limited aggregate effects of a loss in trade preferences are mainly driven by relatively weak ties of SSA to the US and rather low US MFN tariff rates. This highlights the limited effectiveness of the AGOA preference scheme, indicating that its renewal should go hand in hand with a comprehensive modernisation of the programme. While the AGOA Renewal and Improvement Act of 2024 acknowledges this, it still falls short of modernising the programme in some key areas. To ensure long-term benefits for SSA economies, we recommend: • A swift reauthorisation for a longer period, incorporating continuation provisions to reduce future uncertainty. • More transparent and predictable eligibility reviews, with a possibility of partial exclusion for non-compliance, would also help mitigate uncertainty. • Expansion of rules of origin, which is crucial for stimulating intra-continental trade and enhancing value addition within SSA. • Widening the programme’s scope by addressing, for example, digital trade, services, non-tariff measures, regulatory cooperation and investment facilitation.
Topic:: Development, Exports, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:: Africa and United States of America

8. A new development paradigm and strategy for the OECD (and beyond): what should the ‘D’ of OECD stand for?

Author:: Andy Sumner, Stephan Klingebiel, and Arief Anshory Yusuf
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This paper examines the evolving role of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in addressing global development challenges in the mid-2020s. At a time when a new development strategy is being drafted for the OECD, we provide a fresh perspective by exploring the tensions inherent in the definition of “development” and asking whose development the OECD seeks to support. Historically, the OECD extended its remit beyond its membership through mechanisms such as Official Development Assistance (ODA). However, considering the increasing prominence of South–South cooperation, private sector investment and intensifying geopolitical competition, ODA alone is insufficient for sustainable development needs, and for many countries of the Global South ODA no longer matters as much as it used to due to the growth of domestic resources. One of the most significant shifts within the OECD itself in recent years is in its identity, largely as a result of its expanding membership. This now totals 38 countries, including some from the Global South, and this trend is set to continue, with a set of Southern countries currently in the accession process. While this enlargement may strengthen the OECD’s relevance in a multipolar world, it also challenges the organisation’s traditional identity as a “club of mostly rich countries”, as The Economist has often referred to it. Employing a novel 2x2 matrix framework, we delineate four strategic scenarios for OECD development strategy: (i) “traditional development” within OECD member states (D-within), (ii) traditional development beyond OECD membership (D-beyond), (iii) “frontier development” within OECD member states, and (iv) frontier development beyond the organisation’s membership. The use of the term “traditional development” refers to an aggregate growth orientation of development without reference to inclusivity or sustainability. “Frontier development” is then the converse. The authors argue for an OECD development strategy that bridges “D-within” and “D-beyond”, by acknowledging the transnational spillover effects of the domestic policies of OECD countries on the Global South. Further, across the matrix framework, we advocate for the OECD to strengthen its engagement with the analysis and promotion of policy coherence for sustainable development (PCSD) as a means of providing global leadership in sustainable development. In theory, promoting PCSD necessitates the integration of economic, social and environmental dimensions across all policy areas, alongside a commitment to addressing long-term and transboundary impacts. Further, we highlight the imperative of engaging non-member states to enhance the inclusivity and relevance of the OECD’s development strategy within an increasingly multipolar global order. In sum, we argue that the OECD is at a pivotal juncture. Its capacity to adapt and redefine its developmental mandate will determine its future relevance in the global governance architecture. By prioritising leadership on global sustainable development, PSCD and an inclusive approach to non-OECD members, the OECD has the potential to serve as a transformative force.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, and OECD
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9. State Enterprises as Enablers of Economic Cooperation in India

Author:: Kyunghoon Kim
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This Brief discusses the role of state enterprises in India's economy, emphasizing their pivotal contribution to the government's development strategy. It also highlights cases where Indian state enterprises have formed cooperative relationships with global companies, as well as foreign and international development agencies. The Brief concludes with implications for the Korean government and businesses.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Economic Cooperation, and State-Owned Enterprises
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, Asia, and South Korea

10. Ghana’s Pathway to AI Governance and Its Implications for Africa

Author:: Thompson Gyedu Kwarkye
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming various sectors, offering the opportunity for economic growth and societal progress in Africa. However, it poses several risks that may disproportionately impact the continent. African countries are developing governance frameworks to navigate these concerns. Ghana’s 10-year National Artificial Intelligence Strategy emphasizes innovation, talent development and addressing AI-related risks through ethical and regulatory frameworks. It integrates several ethical dimensions to provide a test case for others on the continent. African governments must adopt a more human-centric governance approach, invest in local talent and foster inclusive AI development to avoid technological dependency while mitigating AI risks and maximizing its benefits. The dominance of AI by major technology companies highlights disparities between the more prosperous and resource-poor African countries. Bridging these gaps is crucial to ensuring that Africa can influence the future trajectory of AI development.
Topic:: Development, Governance, Economic Growth, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

11. Beyond the Targets: An ambitious agenda to put aid back on track

Author:: Salvatore Nocerino
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Aid can make a huge contribution to significantly reducing inequality. Given the widespread agreement that bringing down inequality is necessary to underpin efforts to end poverty, achieve gender justice and successfully fight climate change, there is an urgent need for donors to make this a priority in their aid policies. For this virtuous cycle to be effective, there is also an imperative to rebalance decision-making on aid, ensuring it is done in an inclusive way that centres Global South governments and civil society. Building on the findings of the 2019 Oxfam report 'Hitting the Target: An agenda for aid in times of extreme inequality', this paper presents a new and updated agenda to put aid back on track given recent changes in the development landscape and the multiple crises facing our world. It makes 10 concrete recommendations on how to ensure development finance effectively contributes to building a more equal and sustainable world.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Poverty, and Inequality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

12. Strategies for Assessing Triple Nexus Initiatives and Integrating Peace Aspects – Insights from Niger

Author:: Christina Plesner Volkdal
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
Abstract:: The Triple Nexus approach represents a paradigm shift in how international organizations, including UNICEF, address complex crises that span humanitarian, development, and peace dimensions. UNICEF must navigate the delicate balance between adhering to the humanitarian principles of neutrality, impartiality, independence, and humanity while engaging in development and peace-building activities that may require aligning with government policies and engaging in politically sensitive contexts. There is a significant challenge in developing metrics and methodologies to measure the synergies and outcomes of the Triple Nexus approach effectively. This includes quantifying how initiatives contribute to peace interacting with humanitarian and development outcomes. UNICEF's approach in Niger, implementing food security policies to respond to humanitarian needs while simultaneously operating as a development program, holds the potential to positively impact peace in the region, thus aligning with the Triple Nexus framework.
Topic:: Development, International Organization, Food Security, Crisis Management, and UNICEF
Political Geography:: Africa and Niger

13. Unaccountable Adaptation: The Asian Development Bank’s overstated claims on climate adaptation finance

Author:: Sunil Acharya, Rasmus Bo Sørensen, and Hans Peter Dejgaard
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Despite positioning itself as the ‘climate bank of Asia and the Pacific’, it is difficult to ascertain the Asian Development Bank’s claims of climate adaptation finance. Oxfam analysed the bank’s 2019–2023 climate finance portfolio and conducted a detailed assessment of 15 climate adaptation projects, comprising 43% of reported adaptation finance for FY 2021 and 2022. Oxfam found that the Asian Development Bank (ADB) hugely overstates the reported amounts with potential over-reporting of 44% in average for the assessed projects. This briefing paper calls for a transformative shift in the ADB’s adaptation finance strategies. The ADB must improve the accuracy and transparency of climate finance reporting and realign financial flows with the needs of the region's most vulnerable communities.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Finance, Accountability, Transparency, Adaptation, and Development Finance
Political Geography:: Asia

14. Beyond Crises: The future of Special Drawing Rights as a source of development and climate finance

Author:: Didier Jacobs
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) during the COVID-19 pandemic has generated considerable interest in using SDRs as a tool for development and climate finance. This policy brief argues that the monetary logic that underpins SDRs justifies regular allocations of at least $200 billion a year, and more than doubling the share of low-and middle-income countries. Once allocated, governments can use SDRs in multiple ways, including to fund some development or climate projects. The brief also discusses reforms to deepen the SDR system in the interest of all countries.
Topic:: Development, Climate Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, Economic Policy, and IMF
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15. Geopolitics in the Pacific Islands: Playing for advantage

Author:: Meg Keen and Alan Tidwell
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Pacific Islands Countries are leveraging geopolitical rivalries to maximise their development options. But unmanaged competition for influence among key development partners can compromise good governance and privilege geopolitical posturing over local priorities. Australia, the United States, and other traditional donors can capitalise on areas of strength, such as social inclusion and regional and multilateral initiatives. Joint efforts along these lines and the pooling of resources would scale up impact and set higher accountability standards. Despite the risk that higher standards will open gaps for non-traditional donors with less burdensome criteria, there is much long-term value in traditional development partners collaborating in a “race to the top” in meeting the region’s needs.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Regional Cooperation, Foreign Aid, Geopolitics, and Donors
Political Geography:: China, Australia, Australia/Pacific, United States of America, and Pacific Islands

16. The African Union's contested role in advancing gender equality

Author:: Karmen Tornius
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The African Union (AU) has put forth significant initiatives addressing gender equality issues on the continent but is confronted by concerns related to legitimacy, donor dependency and questionable impact on the ground.
Topic:: Development, African Union, Donors, Equality, and Gender
Political Geography:: Europe and Denmark

17. Future Danish engagement with Africa: Insights and priorities for Denmark´s new Africa strategy from DIIS’ partners across the continent

Author:: Mary Boatemaa Setrana, Rahma Hassan, Faisal Garba, Mohamed Aden Hassan, Meron Zeleke Ersesso, Adam Moe Fejerskov, Nauja Kleist, and Mikkel Funder
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Remaking political relations with African countries has become a key priority for the Danish government, looking toward a future where Africa becomes of greater (geo)political importance to Denmark and Europe. To achieve this, Denmark is preparing a new plan for its future strategic engagement on the continent. Aiming to situate African countries closer to Denmark’s core foreign affairs, the plan is expected to address questions across the fields of foreign affairs, security, development, and trade, and focus on equal partnerships. The government has indicated a need to build on the mantra of ‘preaching less and listening more’ – as the Danish minister for foreign affairs framed it at a recent visit to Kenya – with political relations based on a ‘pragmatic idealism’ and more genuine forms of cooperation that reflect mutual interests. In this Policy Brief, some of DIIS’ African research partners consider key questions on what it takes to achieve equal partnerships, what a new Danish strategic engagement with Africa should look like, and what it should refrain from.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Engagement, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Denmark

18. Somaliland at the centre of rising tensions in the Horn of Africa

Author:: Jethro Norman
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: On 1 January 2024, a surprise Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was announced between the self-declared breakaway Republic of Somaliland and Ethiopia. The deal allowed landlocked Ethiopia to lease 20 kilometres of Somaliland’s coastal land for naval and commercial purposes. In exchange, Ethiopia would be the first country to recognise Somaliland as an independent nation (later revised by Ethiopia to an ‘in depth assessment’ of recognition). The government of the Federal Republic of Somalia (FGS), which considers Somaliland part of its territory, called the deal a violation of its territorial sovereignty, a position supported by the EU and other international partners. In western Somaliland’s Awdal region, where the coastal land has been promised, there have been widespread protests. The Ethiopia-Somaliland deal has immediately increased tensions throughout the region. The timing of the agreement is significant as it occurred shortly after Somalia agreed to resume talks concerning Somaliland’s disputed constitutional status, putting an abrupt end to the dialogue. Regional blocs are already coalescing between those who support Somalia’s territorial integrity (notably Djibouti, Egypt and Eritrea) and those supporting Ethiopia (including the UAE and Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces). The possibility of a future war in the Horn is a real concern. Analysis has so far focused on Ethiopia’s expansionist actions, especially in light of a looming debt crisis and various internal conflicts, and support from the UAE, an influential regional player. However, it is unlikely that this deal would have been possible were Somaliland itself not already in crisis. Although the news of the agreement was met with celebration in the capital, Hargeisa, Somaliland is not approaching this deal from a position of strength. Since 2022, it has lost control of a significant portion of its eastern territory to pro-unionist forces who established their own administration, SSC-Khatumo. Internal unrest has also been brewing since 2022 due to delayed Presidential elections in Somaliland. Although President Muse Bihi Abdi has allowed clan elders to mediate the election-related disputes, the opposition remains skeptical as to whether elections will indeed occur by the end of 2024. The aim of the deal with Ethiopia is to restore the President’s reputation, and by extension Somaliland’s international reputation, contain domestic resistance, and revive its battered economy. Mediating between Somaliland, Somalia and Ethiopia is necessary, but not enough. Addressing the deep-rooted political crisis within Somaliland and clarifying its status in relation to Somalia are essential for finding a long-term solution to regional instability. Resolving the political status of both Somaliland and the newly established SSC-Khatumo should be a top priority in achieving long-term stability in the Horn.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Development, Diplomacy, International Organization, Migration, Non State Actors, Fragile States, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Africa, Somalia, and Horn of Africa

19. Locally-led climate change adaptation works: Here are eight ways to support it

Author:: Claire Bedelian, Judith Mulwa, Beatrice Sumari, and Peter Rogers
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Locally-led adaptation (LLA) is a framework of key principles for how to support communities in adapting to climate change. This policy brief looks at a study of six LLA water-related projects in Kenya and Tanzania to explore how donors, governments and civil society actors can best support the approach.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Water, Governance, and Adaptation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

20. Diaspora aid is crucial for emergency relief in the Somali regions

Author:: Nauja Kleist, Peter Albrecht, Mohamed Aden Hassan, and Karuti Kanyinga
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Somali diaspora humanitarianism alleviates suffering and saves lives in the Somali regions that are affected by conflict, poverty and natural disasters. Its absence would exacerbate crises and significantly limit the impact of formal assistance.
Topic:: Development, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, Natural Disasters, Diaspora, Fragile States, Economy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

21. From Paper to Practice: Enhancing Integrated Development Plans to Improve Governance

Author:: Stuart Morrison and Pranish Desai
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation (PME) systems play an important role in ensuring that South Africa’s municipalities are able to effectively fulfil their core mandate of service delivery. One central component of this system is the Integrated Development Plan (IDP), a strategic framework used for several functions, including guiding key priorities and providing a roadmap for effectively delivering public services. However, even though most municipalities consistently submit IDPs, the quality of service delivery, especially amongst municipalities that have Water Services Authority responsibilities, is uneven. This raises the questions around which factors are more influential in determining effective service provision, and why they are lacking in dozens of municipalities. Using Good Governance Africa’s 2024 Governance Performance Index (GPI), this policy briefing provides a range of stakeholders with consolidated insights into how these issues can be addressed.
Topic:: Development, Governance, Services, Planning, Monitoring, and and Evaluation (PME)
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

22. Greening Economies in Partner Countries: Priorities for International Cooperation

Author:: Tilman Altenburg, Anna Pegels, Annika Björkdahl, Clara Brandi, and Hanna Fuhrmann-Riebel
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: While polluting industries are still flourishing, the green economy is on the rise. In low- and middle-income countries, the resulting opportunities are mostly underexplored. The Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)’s new strategy for “Sustainable economic development, training and employment” shifts gears towards a green and inclusive structural transformation, recognising that only a just transition approach with credible co-benefits for societies can gain societal acceptance (BMZ, 2023). It is now essential to provide evidence of how a greener economy can offer direct economic benefits to national economies and the majority of their citizens. Ongoing cooperation portfolios need to be adjusted to this new and timely orientation in the BMZ’s core strategy. We suggest focusing on the following six areas: Eco-social fiscal reform should be a priority area in at least 15 of the over 40 partner countries with whom Germany cooperates on “sustainable economic development”, systematically linking revenues from pricing pollutions to pro-poor spending. Development policy should promote inclusive green finance (IGF) through market-shaping policies, such as an enabling regulatory framework for the development of digital IGF services and customer protection in digital payment services. It should also build policymakers’ capacity in developing IGF policies and regulation. Support in the area of sustainable, circular con-sumption should focus on eco-design, and repair and reuse systems. It should build systems design capa-cities and behavioural knowledge, to integrate con-sumers in low-carbon and circular industry-consumer systems. This will need new collaborations with actors shaping systems of consumption and production, for instance with supermarkets or the regulators of eco-design guidelines. Germany should strategically support national hydro-gen strategies, including a just transition approach and prioritising green over other “colours” of hydrogen. This means strengthening industrial policy think tanks, technology and market assessment agencies, technology-related policy advice as well as skills development, and exploring distributive mechanisms to spread the gains and ensure societal acceptance. Sustainable urbanisation should be a more explicit priority, given its potential for job creation and enterprise development. This means supporting partners in integrating land-use, construction and mobility planning for compact, mixed-use neighbourhoods, and anti-cipating green jobs potential and skills required within cities. Lastly, Germany should support green industrial policy and enlarge policy space in trade rules by promoting the core institutions of industrial policy, for example, technology foresight agencies, coordinating platforms for industry upgrading, and policy think tanks, and working towards reforms of the trading system, such as rules to allow clearly defined green industrial subsidies, preferential market access for green goods and services from low-income countries, or technology transfer. It is evident for all areas that the challenges in low- and middle-income countries will differ from those in high-income countries. It is, therefore, imperative that successful programmes are co-developed with local partners. A just green transition that harvests benefits beyond a healthier environment and is supported by societies will then be achievable.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Economy, Sustainability, and Green Economy
Political Geography:: Germany and Global Focus

23. Tomorrow’s Global Development Landscape: Mapping Trends and Reform Dynamics

Author:: Heiner Janus, Niels Keijzer, and Svea Koch
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The key tools and governance approaches for international cooperation for sustainable development (hereafter, international cooperation) were set up in a markedly different time and age. International cooperation – with official development assistance (ODA) as the dominant means of implementation – remains key, despite being generally considered as no longer adequate for addressing today’s common and collective challenges. Despite numerous declarations of its growing irrelevance or calls for it even being beyond repair, the governance and reporting system of ODA has remained largely unchanged throughout its 60 years of existence. One reason is that there are few alternatives. Pandemic response and preparedness, climate finance, humanitarian aid, the United Nations development system as well as the budgets of the multilateral development banks all by and large remain dependent on ODA. New and additional sources of development finance have been slow to materialise and run the risk of remaining time-bound and ad-hoc, as illustrated by recent discussions on Special Drawing Rights, debt swaps and green bonds. While other actors, such as providers of South-South Cooperation (SSC), and non-governmental actors are increasing and gaining importance, they are only to a limited degree institutionalised. In the absence of transparent and coherent methodologies for monitoring their actions, concrete financial volumes remain hard to assess. This paper analyses structural factors of the institutional inertia in international cooperation and formulates expectations for where new reform impetuses might arise from. To this end, it maps and links key reform proposals for the global development system, with a specific focus on public financial flows consisting of three connected parts. The first part concerns current forms of and reporting processes for ODA, climate finance and SSC. These concern well-established, albeit path-dependent, forms of international cooperation with different types of multistakeholder settings and different levels of institutionalisation. Here, we do not expect fundamental reforms given various entrenched interests and expect that the nexus between climate finance and ODA will be the main driver for change. The second part of our mapping consists of what we call “global first” reform ideas. These ideas begin with a problem-oriented approach at the global level and aim at setting up new, universal financing schemes and redesigning institutional structures for that purpose. While the ideas in this category are still in their initial stage, we regard them to be particularly relevant for conceptualising the “demand-side” of reforms (i.e., “what would be needed?”). Here, we predict that the more ambitious reforms for creating universality of contributions and benefits at the global level will not materialise. However, these concepts play a key role in influencing the future orientation of specific existing (multilateral) institutions. The third part of our mapping entails positioning current multilateral and bilateral development organisations located between the first two parts. We observe that these organisations experience a gravitational pull towards both directions of reform, namely focusing on global public goods versus prioritising the (countries) left behind, often with competing incentives and trade-offs between national and global development priorities. We expect that a reform of bilateral development actors will lag behind in the broader policy field due to their domestic political constraints, whereas multilateral development banks will generate greater reform momentum (and be pushed by their stakeholders) as first movers.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:: Global Focus

24. Constellations of State Fragility: Improving International Cooperation through Analytical Differentiation

Author:: Jasmin Lorch, Sebastian Ziaja, and Jörn Grävingholt
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: State fragility has remained a pressing challenge for international security and development policymakers for more than two decades. However, international engagement in fragile states has often failed, in part due to a lack of understanding about what constitutes state fragility. Established quantitative models usually rank fragile states on one-dimensional scales ranging from stable to highly fragile. This puts states characterised by very different problems and dimensions of fragility into the same “box”. Moreover, categorisations such as “fragile”, “weak”, “failed” or “collapsed” are increasingly rejected in the Global South, thereby hampering international development and security cooperation. The “Constellations of State Fragility” model, developed at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), provides a more differentiated model to measure state fragility. It assesses state fragility along three continuous dimensions, assuming that state fragility is a continuous trait that affects all states to some degree: authority, capacity and legitimacy. These dimensions are not aggregated into a one-dimensional index. Instead, the model detects typical constellations across these dimensions. In so doing, it also accounts for the fact that states can perform very differently in different dimensions. Our analysis yields three main insights about what constitutes state fragility and how it can be addressed: first, state fragility, illiberalism, repression and human rights violations are interrelated; second, state fragility is not unique to the Global South, with negative trends also occurring in the Global North; and, third, differentiated, multi-dimensional models offer better starting points for addressing state fragility than one-dimensional ones. We conclude with four policy recommendations: • Improve analytical capacity by adopting a differentiated view of state fragility: International security and development policymakers would benefit from more fine-grained, differentiated assessments of state fragility. In addition, country-specific assessments of the specific local power constellations in which fragile state institutions are embedded are needed for devising adequate, context-sensitive measures. • Connect measures to address fragility with democracy protection and the protection of human rights: Illiberalism, human rights violations and repression correlate with state fragility. This also suggests that there is a close relationship between autocracy, autocratisation and fragility. Accordingly, measures to address fragility, democracy support and efforts to protect human rights must be better connected. This also implies doing “no harm to democracy” (Leininger, 2023, p. 2). • Identify conditions under which state-building can (or cannot) be pursued: It would be fruitful if international security and development policymakers engaged in thorough discussions about the conditions under which state-building can be pursued. Where existing state institutions are legitimate, they should be supported. However, donor coherence and the capacity (and political will) of donors to commit resources to fragile states and to engage long-term are also important preconditions. State-building is both a costly and a long-term endeavour. • Learning across world regions: Patterns of state fragility can be highly similar, despite geographical distance. In particular, rising illiberalism and increasing attacks on civil liberties are global phenomena. Hence, policy decision-makers and civil society organisations (CSOs) seeking to counter fragility should engage in mutual learning across the North/South divide.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Fragile States, and Development Aid
Political Geography:: Global Focus

25. Current Developments in West Africa’s Regional Integration – Challenges for the Future Design of Foreign and Development Policy

Author:: Klaus Grütjen
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: On 16 September 2023, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger – all three states led by military regimes – decided to establish a new regional organisation, the Alliance of Sahel States (Alliance des Etats du Sahel – AES). This move was prompted by the worsening of the crisis within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in 2023, a crisis that reached its peak to date with the announcement by the three AES members on 28 January 2024 of their withdrawal from ECOWAS, a regional organisation set up back in 1975. In a socio-political context in which the role and functions of the state, the extent of state powers and the way in which they are exercised are increasingly being called into question, new forms of political and social organisation are developing. These are also influenced by the current geopolitical developments in the changing world order. At the same time, states and societies and the ongoing regional integration processes are facing major new challenges. Within ECOWAS, conventional ideas of state and society, values and structures are coming up against growing tendencies towards a new understanding of statehood and sovereignty. In the West Africa/Sahel region, new processes of nation-building and state-building are under way, underpinned by efforts to renew social cohesion and to integrate the ‘vital forces of the nation’ – a concept cited increasingly frequently in these countries – as comprehensively as possible. These developments call for a realignment of German and European foreign and development policy. The political and social conditions and expectations of the partners in the West Africa/Sahel region are currently undergoing profound transformation. They need to be aligned with the content and interests of the value-based foreign policy advocated by Germany – in line with the principle of a ‘partnership between equals’. Any appraisal of the future developments and integration of the dynamics that determine them must take account of the various integration processes, which are particularly diversified and run in parallel in this region. Adopting a comparative perspective, this paper provides an overview of the various regional organisations in the West Africa/Sahel region. It analyses the potential of each of them in terms of their development prospects and sustainability. In addition to the critical relationship between ECOWAS and the AES, it also examines the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), the Integrated Develop-ment Authority of the Liptako-Gourma Region (Autorité de Liptako-Gourma – ALG) and the G5 Sahel, which is currently being dissolved. If the partnership between Germany and Europe on the one hand and the West African and Sahel states on the other is to be continued, it will be vital to adopt a pragmatic approach and maintain a political dialogue with all the partners. The states in this region are extremely important to Europe’s future development. Moreover, it is only through communication based on mutual respect underpinning cooperation in the economic and development sectors that the growing influence of political powers such as Russia and Iran – whose ideas, interests and values are not in line with the Western Atlantic model of democracy governed by the rule of law – can be curbed effectively.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: Africa and West Africa

26. State Fragility and Development Cooperation: Putting the Empirics to Use in Policy and Planning

Author:: Charles Martin-Shields and Diana Koester
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: State fragility, which describes how different components of a state do (or do not) function, is a central concept for understanding how development activities and policies in complex political, humanitarian and conflict-affected contexts will (or will not) work in practice. Using fragility as a lens, we use feminist development policy and forced displacement as examples to demonstrate how different empirical conceptualisations of fragility can be used to uncover potential challenges and identify opportunities for more comprehensive policy and programming. These examples are only two ways one can apply the concepts of fragility of the OECD and the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS). Indeed, these and other empirical concepts of state fragility have many applications and can be used to measure and understand state–society, conflict and humanitarian dynamics in myriad ways. The longest-running among these kinds of models is the Fund for Peace’s Fragile States Index (Fund for Peace, 2023). Other models focus on state fragility as a function of different aspects of “stateness”. This includes IDOS’s Constellations of State Fragility typology, which clusters types of fragility based on strengths/weaknesses in key dimensions of statehood (Grävingholt et al., 2019). Some organisations have moved beyond an exclusive focus on the functioning of the state, with the OECD currently defining fragility contexts as the combination of risks and insufficient coping capacities of multiple levels of governance systems and/or communities to manage, absorb or mitigate those risks (OECD, 2016). The IDOS and OECD concepts do not rank countries, and the methods used in both models allow them to be applied to different levels of analysis. Essentially, these empirical conceptualisations of state fragility can serve as useful heuristics for the policy-makers responsible for setting policy agendas in fragile contexts.
Topic:: Development, Fragile States, Fragility, Cooperation, and Development Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

27. Getting Special Drawing Rights Right: Opportunities for Re-channelling SDRs to Vulnerable Countries

Author:: Jürgen K. Zattler
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Many developing countries are still grappling with the consequences of the pandemic and the associated high debt burdens while facing huge financing needs, inter alia related to climate change. In response, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued $650 billion in Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). The G7 and G20 have committed to re-channelling SDR 100 billion of their allocation to developing countries (on-lending, recycling and re-channelling are used interchangeably in this policy brief). The question now is how to implement these commitments in a way that promotes the global transformation and at the same time supports debt sustainability. It is important to note that there are certain restrictions on the re-channelling of SDRs. Most importantly, the re-channelling must be consistent with the SDR’s status as an international reserve asset. There are different interpretations of these requirements. The IMF has encouraged the use of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) and the Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) for re-channelling. It has also signalled general support for re-channelling SDRs to the multilateral development banks (MDBs). The European Central Bank (ECB) has taken a more restrictive stance. Does the re-channelling of SDRs through the above-mentioned IMF trusts (“the current on-lending option”) effectively support the global transformation? Measured against this objective, the current on-lending regime has two shortcomings. First, it does not sufficiently link foreign exchange support to deep structural transformation. Second, it does not allow funds to be leveraged in the private capital market. In this policy brief, we discuss a promising alternative: recycling SDRs for MDB hybrid capital (“the hybrid capital option”). This option can overcome the two drawbacks of the current system. At the same time, it has its own challenges. Moreover, both the current on-lending option and the hybrid capital option raise concerns about debt sustainability. If implemented in their current forms, they would risk exacerbating vulnerable countries’ debt problems. It would therefore be desirable to modify these options to better integrate debt implications. This could be done by using the on-lent SDRs primarily for programmes that are not “expenditure-based”, but rather help to improve the composition of expenditure and revenue in a socially equitable manner, for example the introduction of regulatory standards, feebates and carbon pricing, or the phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies. Such an approach could have the added benefit of making previously sceptical member states more receptive to the hybrid capital proposal. The mid-term review of the RST, scheduled for May 2024, as well as the full review in 2025 provide good opportunities to further explore some of the issues raised in this policy brief. In addition, the brief identifies three ways in which interested shareholders of the IMF and MDBs could advance the debate on the hybrid capital option.
Topic:: Development, Sustainability, COVID-19, and Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

28. Multidimensional Impact of COVID-19 on Education and Implications on Inclusive Recovery

Author:: Gee Young Oh
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This report aims to present the findings of Oh et al. (2023), which analyzes the post-pandemic inequality levels in developing countries and derives policy implications for Korea's international development cooperation (IDC) to help reduce inequality, especially in the education sector. The impact of COVID-19 on education is multidimensional, with varying levels of heterogeneity across countries, regions, households, and individual stakeholders, including students, parents, and teachers. To comprehensively understand this multidimensionality, the study compares situations in two countries to explore inter- and intra-country educational disparities. After identifying such multidimensionality, the study derives policy implications on how Korea’s IDC can better target post-pandemic inequality in education.
Topic:: Development, Education, International Cooperation, Inequality, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

29. The Role of Multilateral Development Banks in Financing Energy Transition in South America

Author:: Maria Elena Rodriguez, Rafaela Mello Rodrigues de Sá, Octávio Henrique Alves Costa de Oliveira, and Renan Guimarães Canellas de Oliveira
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: BRICS Policy Center
Abstract:: With the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, the world institutionalized the goal of keeping global temperature rise below 2ºC, based on efforts to adapt to and mitigate climate change. It is in this context that the actors involved presented their commitments to establish policies and strategies to reduce carbon emissions in different sectors of the economy. This process of reducing emissions can be called decarbonization and consists of replacing fossil energy sources with clean renewables, in addition to encouraging the use of electrification technology, such as electric cars. This movement promotes transformation toward a low-carbon economy in various sectors. In the energy sector, this transformation is called the clean energy transition, as it attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the energy matrix. For this to happen, increasing the use of renewables over using fossil fuels such as coal and oil is encouraged.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Finance, Multilateralism, Paris Agreement, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

30. Europe’s development and peacebuilding cuts: Securing short-term interests, risking long-term security

Author:: Katariina Mustasilta
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Development cooperation budgets are tightening in the EU amid economic pressures and a focus on security and defence. Two broad shifts are taking place in EU and member state investments in peacebuilding and conflict prevention: a general decline in funding and decreasing attention to conflict-affected regions and countries in particular. Local and international conflict prevention and peacebuilding actors need to frame their work to align with the EU’s economic, security and geopolitical interests in order to remain relevant in an era of strategic competition. The implications of the shifts in funding will depend on how changes are implemented and under what types of strategies. A general risk is that policy decisions will be based on a short-term and largely reactive rationale at the expense of a long-term perspective on Europe’s interests.
Topic:: Security, Development, International Cooperation, European Union, Crisis Management, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Europe

31. Renewable Energy and Electricity Interconnection Megaprojects in North Africa: Prospects for Euro-North Africa Cooperation

Author:: Michaël Tanchum, Hussein Suleiman, Alexander P. Martin, Tristano Sainati, and Jose Rodrigo Juarez Cornelio
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: This Joint Policy Study delves into North Africa’s renewable energy landscape, examining the potential and challenges of megaprojects in the region. With a specific focus on renewable energy production and exports, it explores the intricacies of megaprojects in Morocco, Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia, assessing their successes, hurdles, and future potential. North Africa, especially the Sahara Desert, has vast potential for renewable energy production due to its exceptionally high solar irradiation levels, positioning it as an ideal site for solar energy projects. Economically and geopolitically, there is a strong rationale for Euro-North African collaboration to enhance North Africa’s ability to generate and export renewable energy in a way that benefits both regions. However, despite this significant potential, North African countries have faced numerous geopolitical, economic, societal and infrastructural obstacles in fully capitalising on these resources.
Topic:: Development, Infrastructure, Electricity, Renewable Energy, and Solar Power
Political Geography:: Europe and North Africa

32. The Maghreb maze: Harmonising divergent European policies in North Africa

Author:: Anthony Dworkin
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The Maghreb policies of the four most influential EU member states are diverging, driven by national politics and their interaction with developments in the region. Italy is pushing an ‘engagement-first’ strategy for Tunisia and building energy links with Algeria, while Spain has tilted strongly towards Morocco. France’s relations with Maghreb countries are complicated by historical legacies and regional expectations, Germany is pulling back as hopes for democratic reform have faded. These divisions risk allowing Maghreb leaders to set the agenda of relations with Europe, frustrating longer-term European interests in promoting stability, reform, and effective governance. A better European approach would use strong bilateral relationships as entry points to pursue a more coordinated policy, building on areas in which EU interests converge.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Reform, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe, Algeria, North Africa, Morocco, and Maghreb

33. Mind the Gap: Bridging the Divide between Cooperation Providers

Author:: Beata Cichocka, Rachael Calleja, Sara Casadevall Bellés, and Emma Mawdsley
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Despite the increasing imperative for cross-provider collaboration, the quest for a truly “global” development paradigm remains elusive, marked by persistent divides between different types of development providers’ normative frameworks, models, experiences, capacities, and institutional allegiances. This paper explores the potential role of countries to act as bridges across these varying institutional, normative, or technical “distances” between providers. We begin by examining why, when, and under what conditions countries choose to act as bridges, given their differing capacities, credibility, knowledge, and willingness to act in the role. We then identify some common types and illustrative examples of bridging countries, including “dual donors,” “development experience” bridges, “political” bridges, and “geographic or cultural” bridges, and explore some of the most common types of actions that they can undertake. While all of these actions—whether joint project implementation, hosting forums, brokering agreements, or contributing to the creation of more inclusive norms and multilateral spaces— require some level of both political and technical commitment, they vary in terms of the level of ambition and mutual trust required to undertake action and therefore provide a broad range of options suited to a variety of contexts, agendas, and actors wishing to play a bridging role. Following a brief examination of the benefits and risks associated with bridging, the paper concludes with some policy recommendations for bridging countries that wish to approach this ambitious challenge more strategically.
Topic:: Development, Government, Donors, and Collaboration
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34. Maximising EU Concessional Finance for Greater Leverage and Impact: An Options Spread

Author:: Mikaela Gavas, Samuel Pleeck, Andrew Rogerson, San Bilal, and Karim Karaki
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Already constrained by the economic aftershocks of COVID-19, the impact of the war in Ukraine, and the food and climate crisis, low-income countries and lower-middle-income countries now face a combination of soaring debt and high interest rates. Confronted with insufficient liquidity to respond to these challenges and unable to access capital markets, they need additional concessional finance, in the form of grants and soft loans. The European Union (EU) already provides concessional finance, but it is not nearly enough to respond to their growing needs. With European budgets under more strain than ever, this paper puts forward the case for finding ways to maximise the overall efficiency and impact of European concessional finance and in doing so, better articulating and combining grants and concessional loans in its support and investment toolbox. To remain relevant and maintain relationships and influence with partner countries–even more in a world characterised by the polycrisis and geopolitical fragmentation–the EU will have to step up its game when it comes to providing more strategic concessional finance. The paper sets out six complementary and non-mutually exclusive options for maximising EU concessional finance with a view to a strategic set of decisions to be made for the next EU Multiannual Financial Framework.
Topic:: Development, European Union, Financial Institutions, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Europe

35. Disinvesting from Low-Value Health Technologies in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Between a Solution to the Current Fiscal Crises and a Costly Mirage?

Author:: Adrian Gheorghe and Pete Baker
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: In this policy paper we summarise what is known about healthcare disinvestment and outline documented experiences in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to draw insights on what has worked, to what extent, and under what conditions. We reviewed the published literature on documented experiences of attempted healthcare disinvestment in LMICs. We identified two common scenarios when disinvestment initiatives were attempted, namely “one-off” and “systematic” initiatives, and characterised them in terms of objectives, resources and political will. We found four documented examples of one-off disinvestment initiatives—Iran, Malaysia, Romania, and Vietnam, two documented examples of systematic disinvestment initiatives by health technology assessment (HTA) agencies in LMICs—Brazil and China, as well as a range of countries like Thailand, India, and Ghana that carry out systematic disinvestment through routine HTA processes. We conclude that disinvestment is costly, time-consuming, and rarely as successful as policymakers intend. Key considerations to improve the chances of success include whether strong pre-existing health prioritisation systems exist (such as an HTA agency) and whether the design of initiatives are tightly matched to the level of political will, the policy objective, and available resources.
Topic:: Development, Science and Technology, Global Health, and Fiscal Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

36. Why and How Multilateral Development Banks Support Improved Outcomes for Economic Migrants and Refugees

Author:: Helen Dempster, Martha Guerrero Ble, and Stephanie López Villamil
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Economic migrants and refugees can bring both benefits and costs to their hosting countries. If well-integrated, they can support themselves, their families, and their hosting countries as producers and consumers. Both economic migration and forced displacement are therefore integrally linked with development outcomes. Recognizing this, multilateral development banks (MDBs) are supporting their beneficiary member countries to improve outcomes for economic migrants and refugees, in the form of billions of dollars in grants and loans, as well as technical assistance, policy dialogues, and knowledge exchanges. This paper provides an introductory snapshot of some of the financing instruments, projects, and strategies used; particularly innovative approaches; and challenges MDBs face in expanding their engagement. It is hoped this paper will be useful to anyone who engages with MDBs and wants to understand how they engage on economic migration and forced displacement, particularly as these issues continue to grow in importance.
Topic:: Development, Migration, World Bank, Refugees, and Banking
Political Geography:: Global Focus

37. ABCs of the IFIs: Understanding the World Bank’s IDA21 Replenishment

Author:: Erin Collinson, Clemence Landers, Justin Hurley, and Grace Miner
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: The International Development Association (IDA)—the World Bank’s arm that works in low- and lower-middle-income countries—is one of the largest sources of development assistance for the world’s poorest countries. It is also a crucial tool for resource-constrained governments to borrow on affordable terms compared to other creditors, including Chinese entities. IDA supports eligible countries whose annual per capita incomes fall below an established line (currently $1,315 in FY2024). Because IDA provides grants and highly subsidized loans to its client countries, its funds need to be replenished by donors every three years. Replenishments are year-long negotiations where the World Bank’s shareholding countries, of which the US is the largest, negotiate a policy and financing package for the next three-year cycle. This year, 2024, is an IDA replenishment year for the institution’s twenty-first round of funding (“IDA21”), culminating with a pledging session in December to finalize IDA21’s financing envelope.
Topic:: Development, World Bank, and International Development Association (IDA)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

38. The EU’s Global Role: A Third Node of Power

Author:: Mikaela Gavas and W. Gyude Moore
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: In recent years, a quest for economic security and strategic autonomy have come to define the European Union (EU)’s politics. The need to compete globally for the finite resources required for the green and digital transitions, and rivalries between the US and China for global dominance, are all driving this agenda. And while the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine highlighted countries’ global dependencies, deepening geopolitical tensions have brought national security considerations to the fore. At the same time, the rise of populist parties across Europe is fuelling calls for countries’ national interests to play the defining role in development cooperation. This presents a challenging environment for EU development cooperation. Caught up in this new paradigm, development cooperation is increasingly viewed as a lever of hard power and an instrument of influence which can be used to reinforce Europe’s strategic autonomy and economic security. With European interests central to EU development cooperation strategy, the climate of distrust between Europe and its partners is being heightened, given the not-so-distant memory of European vaccine “nationalism” during the COVID-19 pandemic, the different standards some Europeans apply with regards to fossil fuel exploration and the negative repercussions the Green Deal will have on African countries’ growth and development. However, shaping EU development policy in this fashion, with geostrategic interests at its forefront will be more detrimental than helpful for the EU in the medium to long-term, and carries the risk of fuelling conflicts of interest with partners. Geo-economic fragmentation and a trust deficit when it comes to governments and societal institutions are threatening our ability to address pressing global challenges. In Africa, this fracturing is evident in the plethora of Africa plus-one summits, for example, the first ever Korea-Africa summit. Instead of using multilateral vehicles to address development cooperation, this new environment has spawned a diversion of resources toward more bilateral initiatives, where the geopolitical returns are direct and attributable. In this piece, we propose a reset of the EU’s international relations narrative and “third way” for the EU to position itself as a global development player.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, European Union, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Europe

39. Displacement as a Development Issue: Enabling Public Policy to Unlock Climate Finance in Asia and the Pacific

Author:: Steven Goldfinch
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Internal displacement in the context of climate change and disasters is now recognized as a development issue with humanitarian consequences. As countries gain a greater understanding of the underlying drivers of displacement, and the corrosive effect it has on development outcomes, re-positioning public policy will be critical in prevention and solutions. To implement these responses, greater volumes of development financing is required. In the absence of dedicated instruments or resources to respond to displacement, utilizing existing sources of development finance, including climate adaptation finance, offers an important stream. This paper looks at the current public policy approaches to displacement across Asia and the Pacific, provides insights into selected country approaches, and explores the role of existing development finance, including the role of climate financial intermediary funds, in reducing the drivers of displacement.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Displacement, and Public Policy
Political Geography:: Asia-Pacific

40. Starting from the Source: Methods and Priorities for Explaining Lead Exposure

Author:: Rachel Bonnifield
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Lead is a dangerous neurotoxin, and lead poisoning remains one of the most serious and neglected public health challenges in the developing world, with major negative impacts on global health, education, and overall economic development. There is now growing international momentum to mitigate lead pollution, with the goal of dramatically reducing human lead exposure and consequent adverse effects. Yet before lead exposure can be effectively mitigated, it is essential to understand why humans are being exposed to lead in the first place and therefore how policymakers can intervene to stop further exposure. To date, such research into the major sources of lead exposure—broadly referred to as source assessment—in developing countries has been limited. Thus, there is limited information and no global scientific consensus about the most important causes of global lead exposure. Given growing global interest in addressing lead poisoning, there is an urgent need to better understand the major sources of lead exposure in different settings by increasing the volume and quality of related research. Tailored to a policy audience, this paper offers a state-of-the-science review of methods for doing so. First, it provides background for understanding lead exposure—that is, how and why lead enters the environment, how it behaves once there, and how environmental lead results in elevated blood lead levels for humans. Second, it outlines basic principles for source assessment, including a discussion of objectives and terminology. Third, it details the range of methods available for understanding the sources of lead exposure and describes how such methods can be used in combination to understand major sources of lead exposure in a given context. Finally, it considers major policy-relevant gaps in the literature base about sources of global exposure and offers suggestions for a research agenda in this space.
Topic:: Development, Public Health, Global Health, and Lead
Political Geography:: Global Focus

41. Transforming EU Climate Leadership through CBAM Reform

Author:: Ian Mitchell and Beata Cichocka
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) incentivises key countries, including China and India, to assess their policies around industrial carbon emissions. But CBAM faced criticism from low-income countries at COP28, with evidence suggesting that its economic impact on Africa could be as much as three times the amount of EU aid to the continent. While major emerging economies should face the full incentives from CBAM, lower income countries require a different approach. The Commission must review CBAM's impact on least developed countries (LDCs) by 2025. We propose it collaborates with the Council and Parliament to reform CBAM in two ways: Implement a longer transition period for LDCs, following the principle of "Common but Differentiated Responsibilities" Revisit the European Parliament’s proposal to allocate additional finance to the most vulnerable countries, by proposing that CBAM revenues be used to finance climate-related loss and damage, amounting to around 1 percent of the Commission’s annual budget by 2030. These reforms would show the EU is listening to partner countries and provide a new and additional source of climate funding. This would transform its reputation and strengthen its international negotiating position.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, European Union, Carbon Emissions, and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and India

42. Making Migration Work for Adaptation: Classifying Remittances as Climate Finance

Author:: Samuel Huckstep and Jonathan Beynon
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Labour migration programmes targeted towards climate-vulnerable populations can provide transformative finance, raising household incomes and allowing adaptation. Current flows of adaptation finance are highly insufficient. Mobilisation of private adaptation finance is very low, despite commitments to increase mobilisation. Targeted labour migration programmes can leverage private adaptation finance at a high level of efficiency. Incentivising the selection of migrant labour from communities most vulnerable to climate change by counting a portion of their remittance flows as mobilised private climate finance may therefore have significant benefits.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Migration, Adaptation, and Remittances
Political Geography:: Global Focus

43. Localization in Theory and Practice

Author:: Ranil Dissanayake
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: The movement for localization in foreign aid presents philosophical and practical challenges for providers of foreign aid. In the past, some level of localization (to at least state actors) of both decision-making and spending could be achieved through general and sector budget support, a logistically simple (though politically difficult) approach. Current practices, with more aid disbursed in the form of discrete projects, make localization more difficult to achieve. For development agencies to make progress they must confront conceptual, practical and strategic challenges. This paper suggests practical definitions of different kinds of localization and what they seek to achieve, points out trade-offs between them and sets out how they challenge current conceptions of how and what foreign aid seeks to do, as well as suggest limits to the optimal extent and type of localization. It then considers practical difficulties in implementing these different conceptions of localization given existing donor practices and capacities, and the strategic challenges of realizing the desired outcomes—specifically principal-agent problems within the organization and with contractors. It concludes with key lessons and messages for donors and funding agencies.
Topic:: Development, Humanitarian Aid, Reform, USAID, and Localization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

44. Climate and Development KPIs

Author:: Ian Mitchell and Edward Wickstead
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: How committed are countries to tackling climate change at home and in developing countries? These tables provides nine key indicators on the world’s major economies spanning their climate contributions in three areas: emissions, policy, and international finance. Indicators are calculated to be comparable between countries with several expressed relative to population or economy size. Countries are ordered by the number of indicators on which they score in the best quartile, with indicators shaded for top quartile performance.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Climate Finance, and Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

45. Multilateral Development Banks in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations: Overview of Key Policy, Financial, and Operational Issues

Author:: Koldo Echebarria
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: This paper presents an overview of significant policy, financial, and operational challenges encountered by multilateral development banks (MDBs) in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS). The data indicates that MDBs have increased their involvement in financing FCS compared to bilateral and other multilateral donors, with the World Bank playing the most significant role. This is explained by financial and operational comparative advantages inherent in the MDB business model, despite their implicit biases and constraints. The paper reviews the strategies and framework documents adopted by MDBs to address FCS as a distinct development challenge, highlighting the complexity of translating knowledge advancements and lessons learned into operational categories and clear priorities. It also examines how MDBs are placed regarding the recommendations of the "peace-humanitarian-development nexus," which is central to the international consensus for addressing FCS. The evolution of the financial capacities of MDBs and the criteria for resource allocation in response to the needs of FCS are analyzed. The paper concludes by posing a set of questions that MDBs and their shareholders should consider as they develop reforms to meet FCS-specific requirements and strengthen performance and outcomes.
Topic:: Development, World Bank, Banking, Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

46. Climate Change Act and the role of local government

Author:: Busisipho Siyobi
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: South Africa’s response to addressing climate change has come full circle with the passing of the Climate Change Act1 in July 2024. This breakthrough comes at a time when South Africa is warming by approximately 0.2°C per decade2 , contributing to climate impacts ranging from extreme heat and drought to sea level rise and flooding. The results of these extreme weather events have been devasting to livelihoods and, subsequently, socio-economic development, which have been worsening over the years. The Climate Change Act is a significant step, as it shows progression and commitment to advance South Africa’s climate resilience, and to see it through achieving a just energy transition. However, the success of the overall climate change response is only as strong as its implementation. This policy briefing will assess the Act and provide a roadmap on how it can be effectively operationalised to achieve its mandate.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Resilience, and Local Government
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

47. Prioritizing Health System Development in the Pacific: A Layered Approach

Author:: Kathryn Paik and Eileen Natuzzi
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: This brief gives an overview of health challenges across the Pacific Islands region and identifies the need for development partners such as the United States to reframe their approach to health system development. The document provides several recommendations for policymakers and development organizations as they work with the Pacific to effectively meet the health needs of the region.
Topic:: Development, Health, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Asia-Pacific and United States of America

48. Insights into the U.S. Maternal Mortality Crisis: An International Comparison

Author:: Munira Z. Gunja, Evan D. Gumas, Relebohile Masitha, and Laurie Zephyrin
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:: The United States continues to have the highest rate of maternal deaths of any high-income nation, despite a decline since the COVID-19 pandemic. And within the U.S., the rate is by far the highest for Black women. Most of these deaths — over 80 percent — are likely preventable.1 With policies and systems in place to support women during the perinatal period, several high-income countries report virtually no maternal deaths. As policymakers and health care delivery system leaders in the U.S. seek ways to end the nation’s maternal mortality crisis, these countries may offer viable solutions. This brief updates an earlier Commonwealth Fund study of differences in maternal mortality, maternal care workforce composition, and access to postpartum care and social protections between the U.S. and other high-income countries: Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.2 In this edition, we have also included data on Chile, Japan, and Korea — all high-income countries with universal health care systems. For our analysis, we used the most recently available data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), of which the U.S. is a member. Where country-specific data are more than five years old, we note whether more recent published data from other sources are available for that country. Readers should be aware that because the methods we used to derive updated numbers from other sources may be different from methods the OECD uses, data points may not be comparable to the U.S. rates. For complete details on our methods, see “How We Conducted This Study.”
Topic:: Development, Inequality, Public Health, and Maternal Mortality
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Canada, Norway, France, Germany, Australia, Switzerland, North America, Sweden, Netherlands, New Zealand, and United States of America

49. How Cities in Developing Countries View Climate Change

Author:: Yoon Jae Ro
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The article explores the perceptions of climate change among urban residents in developing countries, focusing on health risks, economic disruptions, and personal responsibilities. It highlights the role of education, income, rural ties, and media exposure in shaping awareness of climate change. Despite willingness for climate action, government financial measures face resistance. Public trust in governments influences views on domestic policies, while international collaboration is seen as essential yet fraught with power imbalances. The study emphasizes tailored, region-specific strategies and equitable global cooperation to address urban challenges and foster effective climate governance.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Health, and Cities
Political Geography:: Global Focus

50. China's Outbound Investment Policy in Recent Years

Author:: Jiyoung Moon, Munsu Kang, Minsuk Park, and Yongsun Kim
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: China's Outbound Direct Investment (ODI) strategy has been changing along with its national development strategy. In the early 2000s, China launched “Going Out (走出去)” strategy to encourage domestic companies’ overseas expansion, which laid the foundation for Chinese companies to venture abroad. Since then, the Chinese government has actively simplified administrative procedures to encourage ODI on the part of Chinese companies. Under the Xi Jinping administration, China's ODI has been functioning as a significant tool for the national development strategy. China’s ODI has increased particularly in strategic industries, such as high-tech industries, critical raw materials, and emerging industries. However, the explosive expansion of Chinese ODI in high-tech industries has led to the increased screening of Chinese ODI especially in developed countries. Through a series of events, the strategy of China's ODI has undergone various changes, with Chinese government strengthening its ODI management. Nevertheless, China’s strategy of aligning ODI with its national strategies continues, and its influence has recently expanded to Global South countries.
Topic:: Development, Science and Technology, Investment, and Industry
Political Geography:: China and Asia

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS