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2. Venezuela's 2024 Elections: Understanding Participation under Unfree and Unfair Conditions
- Author:
- Ryan C. Berg and Henry Ziemer
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- For many observers, the upcoming presidential elections in Venezuela serve as a focal point on which to pin hopes for a democratic transition. However, the challenges faced by the opposition—from internal divisions to an ongoing humanitarian crisis, captured electoral institutions, and persistent human rights abuses—cannot be understated. While there is potential for elections in 2024 to generate momentum and re-galvanize resistance to the Maduro regime, the balance sheet of risks and rewards remains indecisive. This report breaks down the positive and negative aspects of elections in Venezuela and outlines three likely scenarios for policymakers to consider as Venezuela’s 2024 presidential election approaches.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
3. Venezuelan Migration, Crime, and Misperceptions: A Review of Data from Colombia, Peru, and Chile
- Author:
- Dany Bahar, Brian Dooley, and Andrew Selee
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
- Abstract:
- More than 5 million Venezuelans have left their country, and the majority—more than 4 million—have moved elsewhere in Latin America and the Caribbean. While some politicians and pundits have claimed the new arrivals are leading to an uptick in crime, few studies conducted in the region have examined whether and what type of relationship exists between immigration and crime. This issue brief explores these questions by looking at migration and crime data from the three countries with the largest number of Venezuelan migrants: Colombia, Peru, and Chile. To do so, it draws on a mix of national and subnational datasets, some publicly available and others obtained by the authors through requests to government agencies. Analysis of data from 2019 suggests that, for the most part, Venezuelan migrants commit substantially fewer crimes—and certainly fewer violent crimes—than the native born, relative to their share in the overall population. This signals that public perceptions that immigration is driving up crime rates are misplaced. In discussing the policy implications of this analysis, the authors point to areas for further research and policy discussion, including the need to pay special attention to border regions, in which migration and crime dynamics often differ from those elsewhere in the country, and the value of actively addressing newcomers’ legal status and labor market integration.
- Topic:
- Crime, Migration, Border Control, Employment, Trafficking, Immigrants, and Integration
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, South America, Venezuela, Chile, and Peru
4. Hyperinflation in Venezuela: A Stabilization Handbook
- Author:
- Gonzalo Huertas
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The unrelenting surge in prices in Venezuela has crippled the economy and deepened the humanitarian crisis there. Huertas lays out a feasible stabilization plan to stop Venezuela’s hyperinflation. The extent of the humanitarian crisis and shortage of basic goods and services suggests that, on the fiscal side, a stabilization plan should focus primarily on reallocating rather than reducing spending. The authorities should avoid austerity policies and instead spend on taking care of the Venezuelan people. Stabilizing the price level while providing relief to the country’s population would require significant financial assistance from the rest of the world, so it is critical that Venezuela secure strong financial support from the international community. Successful stabilization requires a credible plan to transition to a responsible fiscal policy, the financial resources to carry it out, and the political will to sustain it.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Finance, Inflation, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
5. Latin America's Evolving Migration Crisis: Venezuelans flee accelerating collapse
- Author:
- Ninna Nyberg Sørensen and Cesar Castilla
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Venezuela is facing a deep economic, political, and social crisis, with acute shortages of food, medicine and other basic goods. Over 3.4 million Venezuelans, a tenth of the population, have left the country, presenting Latin America with an unprecedented migration crisis. However, diaspora engagement in humanitarian efforts could also be part of the solution to the crisis. RECOMMENDATIONS ■ The exodus illustrates increasing difficulty distinguishing between voluntary and forced migration. To overcome barriers in accessing protection and social services, migrants and refugees must be granted legal status in receiving countries. ■ The migration crisis is politicized by many actors. Supply routes for vital humanitarian assistance are needed, but historical experiences should warn against the use of military force or other forms of intervention. ■ UN efforts to complement humanitarian help with development assistance to poorer reception areas should be supported. Ways to connect the Venezuelan diaspora to ongoing humanitarian and future development efforts directed at Venezuela should also be pursued.
- Topic:
- Migration, United Nations, Economy, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and Venezuela
6. Reinventing Asian Populism: Jokowi's Rise, Democracy, and Political Contestation in Indonesia
- Author:
- Marcus Mietzner
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- In the last two decades, populists around the world have celebrated a renaissance. As the role of political parties declines, and globalization creates socioeconomic uncertainties that unsettle anxious electorates, anti-establishment figures or movements have found it easy to attract support. Whether Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, Thaksin Shinawatra in Thailand, Narendra Modi in India, or Alexis Tsipras in Greece, populists have been able to mobilize voters by attacking a supposedly collective enemy (mostly, domestic or foreign forces accused of exploiting the country's economic resources) and by appealing to the poor as their main constituency. In some cases, populists have been so successful at the ballot box that established political forces resorted to violence to try removing them—as evidenced by the failed coup against Chavez in 2002, and the military overthrows of Thaksin in 2006 and of his sister, Yingluck, in 2014.
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, India, Greece, Venezuela, and Thailand
7. Venezuela: Dangerous Inertia
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The streets of Venezuela's major cities are now largely calm, following several months of violent clashes between opposition demonstrators, security forces and civilian gun- men that left more than 40 dead. The crisis, however, is not over. The opposition is demanding freedom for several dozen activists jailed during the unrest and an end to the threat of prosecution against more than 2,000. The underlying causes have not been addressed, and calls to restore autonomy and independence to the justice system and other key institutions have not been heeded. Living standards continue to decline due to economic recession; violent crime remains at record levels, and labour unrest and protests over poor-quality public services are often dealt with harshly. Greater international efforts are required to bring the sides back to the negotiating table, since the alternative to dialogue is likely to be further violence sooner or later.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Sociology
- Political Geography:
- Venezuela
8. Political Unrest in Venezuela
- Author:
- Patrick D. Duddy
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- In the coming months, Venezuela could experience significant political unrest and violence that lead to the further curtailment of democracy in the country. Presidential elections are scheduled to take place on October 7, 2012. President Hugo Chavez is in the midst of a tough reelection campaign against Henrique Capriles Radonski—the young and energetic governor of the state of Miranda–– who enjoys multiparty support and appears to have a better chance of defeating the incumbent than earlier challengers.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Democratization, Development, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Venezuela
9. Venezuela: Accelerating the Bolivarian Revolution
- Publication Date:
- 11-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- President Hugo Chávez's victory in the 15 February 2009 referendum, permitting indefinite re-election of all elected officials, marked an acceleration of his “Bolivarian revolution” and “socialism of the 21st century”. Chávez has since moved further away from the 1999 constitution, and his government has progressively abandoned core liberal democracy principles guaranteed under the Inter-American Democratic Charter and the American Convention on Human Rights. The executive has increased its power and provoked unrest internally by further politicising the armed forces and the oil sector, as well as exercising mounting influence over the electoral authorities, the legislative organs, the judiciary and other state entities. At the same time, Chávez's attempts to play a political role in other states in the region are producing discomfort abroad. The September 2010 legislative elections promise to further polarise an already seriously divided country, while unresolved social and mounting economic problems generate tensions that exacerbate the risk of political violence.
- Topic:
- Political Violence and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Venezuela
10. The Carter Center News, Fall 2004
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- Venezuela President Hugo Chavez won an August recall referendum to complete his term, but reconciling his supporters and the opposition remains a goal after two years of contentious relations mediated by The Carter Center and the Organization of American States.
- Topic:
- Government, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- America and Venezuela