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42. Turkey’s Eurasian ambitions at a time of geopolitical uncertainty
- Author:
- Sinem Adar
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s increasingly salient weaknesses in its war against Ukraine have unsettled what was a delicate balance in the Southern Caucasus and Central Asia. Turkey is trying to reap the benefits of this unsettled situation by further intensifying cooperation with a region that it has long considered kin to itself due to linguistic and cultural affinities. These efforts dovetail with rehabilitation attempts of an ever-worsening Turkish economy in the face of an upcoming election in 2023 of historical decisiveness. Beyond these immediate triggers, lurking underneath Ankara’s renewed interest in the region is the post-Cold War strategic ambition to position Turkey as a logistics and energy hub connecting Europe and Asia. Yet skepticism within Europe over Ankara’s strategic orientation at a time of intense geopolitical confrontation and competition abounds. As such, it is necessary to soberly think about Turkey’s place within an emerging Eurasian space and the costs and benefits of engaging with Turkey.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, and Middle East
43. Beyond Turkey’s ‘zero problems’ policy Motives, means and impact of the interventions in Syria, Libya and the South Caucasus
- Author:
- Nienke van Heukelingen and Bob Deen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Since the Arab uprisings in 2011, but especially after the failed coup d’état in 2016, Turkey’s foreign policy has shifted from ‘zero problems’ to the pursuit of strategic depth and autonomy in its neighbourhood. In 2020, Syria, Libya and the South Caucasus became three theatres for Ankara’s new hard-power tactics, a policy that may well be here to stay (at least until the elections in 2023). This policy brief explores the strategic motives, the means of intervention and the impact of Turkish operations in these three conflict areas. While Turkey’s strategic considerations, modalities and consequences vary greatly from case to case, certain parallels can be drawn. They reveal an overall pattern of a much more assertive Turkey that is increasingly willing to deploy a combination of political and military means to secure its strategic objectives in its immediate neighbourhood.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Hard Power
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Libya, Syria, and South Caucasus
44. Turkish interventions in its near abroad: The case of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq
- Author:
- Erwin van Veen and Engin Yüksel
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- The primary objective of Turkey’s recent interventions in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) is to cut the Gordian knot of its own Kurdish question by engaging the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its affiliates militarily until they no longer control any territory. To this end, it is essential that Ankara maintains Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) – and especially the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) – as a junior and compliant partner. A secondary Turkish objective is to balance Iran’s influence in Iraq’s disputed territories, mainly by acting as protector of Turkmen and Sunni groups. In the background, the Turkish Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) desire to maintain regime stability at home plays an important role since its alliance with the ultranationalist-conservative Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and some of its domestic legitimacy depends on the success of Turkish interventions into the KRI. Such interventions have historical precedent, but their scope and scale have increased significantly since 2018, with the effect that Ankara has been able to force the PKK into a defensive position. This has been achieved at the cost of the KDP’s popular legitimacy, an increase in PKK popularity and significant collateral damage among ordinary Iraqi (Kurdish) citizens. Further intensification of Turkish interventions into Sinjar, the Nineveh Plains or Sulaymaniyah will lead to greater tensions with both Baghdad and Iran. An extension of UNAMI’s security sector reform work to include border control can help prevent further conflict escalation by inserting a more neutral actor into this volatile situation.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)
45. All eyes on Ankara: A scenario exercise focused on the 2023 elections
- Author:
- Nienke van Heukelingen
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Over the years, foreign policy has become a source of tension in the European Union’s relationship with Turkey. Although the EU has repeatedly disapproved of Ankara’s (military) interventions in Syria, Libya and Iraq as well as in the Eastern Mediterranean region and the South Caucasus, it has so far not been able to counterbalance Ankara’s actions. In that light, Turkey’s 2023 elections serve as a crucial moment. Seen through the lens of two theoretical scenarios – Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the People’s Alliance win the elections, versus Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and the Nation Alliance win the elections – this policy brief provides an insight into the instruments the EU has at its disposal to influence and/or respond to Ankara’s potential future foreign policy. It shows that while neither scenario will be hassle-free, the EU has most room to manoeuvre and can make best use of its instruments, ranging from diplomatic engagement to military cooperation, in a situation where Kılıçdaroğlu and the Nation Alliance win the elections in 2023.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, and Military Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean
46. Turkey’s interventions in its near abroad: The case of northern Cyprus
- Author:
- Engin Yüksel
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- The primary objective of Ankara’s recent political and military interventions in northern Cyprus is to use the island as the linchpin for its maritime ambitions in the eastern Mediterranean in terms of the geo-economics of claiming and exploring the hydrocarbon resources around the island and expanding its naval power more broadly. Turkey recently upgraded the military utility of the island in line with its Blue Homeland naval doctrine as one track towards realising its primary objective. Another track consists of Ankara politically empowering Turkish Cypriots who advocate for a two-state solution. In doing so, Turkey aims to maintain the status quo, which it views as a ‘two-states-on-one-island’ situation that brings northern Cyprus under increasing Turkish control and pulls it out of the EU’s orbit. In the process, it suppresses the views of advocates of re-unification in northern Cyprus. The EU also stands to lose as the prospect of settling the Cyprus question via a bi-zonal and bi-communal federation – its preferred option – fades from sight.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Maritime, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Cyprus, and Mediterranean
47. Development Competition is Heating Up: China’s Global Development Initiative and the G7 Partnership for Infrastructure and Global Alliance on Food Security
- Author:
- Sarah Cliffe and Karina Gerlach
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- Economic development issues are becoming increasingly geopolitical, as the form and importance of today’s agreement in Turkey on grain exports between Russia and Ukraine demonstrates. While today’s crucial agreement and the war of food security narratives between Russia and the West rightly grab the latest headlines, outside of the media spotlight development competition is also heating up between China and the West.
- Topic:
- Development, Infrastructure, Food Security, Strategic Competition, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Turkey, and Ukraine
48. Acts of normality: The potential for Turkey-Armenia rapprochement
- Author:
- Asli Aydıntaşbaş
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- The 2020 war between Azerbaijan and Armenia created an unexpected opportunity for Turkey and Armenia to normalise their relationship. For nearly a century, Turkey and Armenia have had almost no relationship and a closed border due to the legacy of the Armenian genocide, the cold war, and the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. But both countries now feel it is in their interest to normalise the relationship and open the border – not least to promote trade and to balance against Russian influence in the region. In recent months, Turkey and Armenia have increased the pace of this normalisation by opening air corridors, appointing special representatives, and initiating direct bilateral negotiations over the re-establishment of diplomatic relations and reopening the border. This process is a rare example of a positive sea change – and is likely to be one of the few bright spots in an increasingly unstable and competitive international order.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Normalization, and Rapprochement
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Caucasus, Armenia, and Nagorno-Karabakh
49. Hedge politics: Turkey’s search for balance in the Middle East
- Author:
- Asli Aydıntaşbaş
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Turkey has spent much of the past decade trying to expand its influence and remake the Middle East in its own image. This created a major battle line between the country and its rivals that stretched from Libya to Syria and the eastern Mediterranean. Yet, since mid-2021, Turkey has attempted to normalise its relationships with Middle Eastern countries. This shift has been driven by Turkish domestic politics, the emergence of a multipolar Middle East, and intensifying geopolitical competition. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains politically vulnerable at home, with a deteriorating economy and the opposition leading in the polls. His government’s survival now depends on efforts to balance between great powers and draw financing from former rivals in the Gulf. The EU needs to adjust to this new Turkey by supporting the regional normalisation process, managing the Kurdish issue, and accepting that the country could join an expanded European community – albeit while retaining its strategic autonomy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, European Union, Domestic Politics, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
50. Implications of Israel and Turkey’s diplomatic thaw on Israel’s Mediterranean Policy
- Author:
- Roee Kibrik
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- This document focuses on the challenges and opportunities for Israel’s policy in the Mediterranean Basin as a result of its warming relations with Turkey. It covers the main points raised at the 11th meeting of the Research and Policy Group on Israel in the Mediterranean Basin conducted on May 24, 2022, at the initiative of the Mitvim Institute, Hebrew University’s Davis Institute for International Relations and Haifa University’s National Security Studies Center. The document does not necessarily reflect agreement among all discussion participants. The warming relations between Israel and Turkey
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Mediterranean
51. Mutual Aims: Turkish-Iranian targeting of Iraq’s Kurds
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Turkey and Iran, in recent months, have increased their strikes on areas occupied by Kurds in Iraq. The Turkish Air Force, on November 20, announced intense airstrikes, dubbed Operation Claw-Sword, targeting Syrian Democratic Forces and Syrian Army positions in Northern Syria and against Kurdistan Workers’ Party positions in Northern Iraq. Iran, at the same time, intensified its missile and drone strikes on locations that belong to Kurdish opposition parties, which Tehran claims to have been supporting the latest demonstrations across the country since September this year. The timing of these strikes raises questions about the intention of both regimes and the timing of their targeting of Kurdish rebels in Iraq.
- Topic:
- Minorities, Kurds, Strategic Interests, and Military Alignment
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Turkey, and Middle East
52. The Hurriyet Leaks: Ankara ceasing opportunity for rapprochement with Damascus
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- In a recent report published by Turkish newspaper, Hurriyet, unnamed sources have said Ankara is mulling over opportunities to facilitate a dialogue with the Syrian government. Sources at the Syrian Foreign Ministry have strongly denied such reports however, labelling them as mere political red herring, as Turkey’s presidential elections loom on the horizon.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Refugees, Syrian War, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
53. The 2023 Turkish elections: An unmarked road
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- As the date of elections approaches, the political and economic landscape will undoubtedly come into clearer focus. But at this point, amid so many uncertainties, it is still too early to predict electoral outcomes with any confidence.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, Elections, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
54. Post-Kemalism and the Future of Turkish Governance – Nicholas Danforth
- Author:
- Nicholas Danforth
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Disillusionment with Erdoğan and the AKP after 2013 has reshaped the study of Turkish politics and history, leading scholars to focus on new themes and new periods. Comparative approaches, political economy and a newfound interest in the Cold War have offered a more nuanced understanding of Turkish authoritarianism. Post-Kemalism remain more popular in the U.S. and Europe than in Turkey.
- Topic:
- Governance, Authoritarianism, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
55. Germany’s New Government Coalition: A Red, Yellow or Green Light for German-Turkish Relations?
- Author:
- Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- After the national elections of 26 September 2021, the SPD, Greens and FDP formed for the first time in German history a three-party coalition. The new chancellor is Olaf Scholz (SPD), while the minister of foreign affairs is a woman, Annalena Baerbock (Greens), for the first time. The coalition agreement mentions Turkey only as an “important neighbor of the EU” and speaks of “worrying domestic political developments and foreign policy tensions.” During the election campaign, the Greens and Baerbock spoke of a value-based foreign policy guided by human rights, ecological issues and democratic standards would be guiding principles. Baerbock has been critical of Turkey: after it left the Istanbul Convention, for instance, or over the refugee deal and “violations of human rights and the rule of law.” The Greens remain the only party in the Bundestag, which still views the revival of Turkey’s EU accession process as a possibility. The Greens, and the FDP in particular, want to intensify exchanges between the two countries with civil society and youth exchange programs. The new Bundestag is the most diverse ever, with more German-Turks in parliament than ever before (18/19), and a German-Turk holding a ministerial position (agriculture) for the first time. Greens and FDP voters expect a harsher stance on countries like Turkey: a pragmatic approach à la Merkel would disappoint them. The future of bilateral relations will also depend on how cooperative or confrontational a position Turkey adopts. A best-case scenario is also possible: the next elections put a reformist government in power in Turkey, which will then be supported by the new German administration.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, Bilateral Relations, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Germany
56. Will the EU’s positive agenda on Turkey amount to anything more than wishful thinking?
- Author:
- Amanda Paul
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Policy Centre (EPC)
- Abstract:
- One year on, it remains to be seen whether the EU’s positive agenda (PA), an effort to establish a new modus vivendi with Turkey, will bear fruit. Turkey is one of the EU’s most important neighbours and a crucial partner on numerous issues, including migration, counterterrorism, energy and trade. Yet relations have always been challenging, with honeymoon periods few and far between. Bickering and animosity have become the norm. In 2020, escalating disputes in areas from human rights to maritime claims and military interventions brought the relations to a major crisis. Looking ahead, Ankara’s domestic and foreign policy ahead of crucial elections in 2023 (or earlier), the Cyprus problem, Germany’s leadership change, the 2022 French presidential election and Paris taking over the EU Council Presidency will all impact relations. Amanda Paul gives a concise state of play of EU-Turkey relations, what we can expect and what should be avoided, and areas for improvement. While Turkish membership of the EU seems highly unlikely, neither Ankara nor the EU is ready to call it quits. With no functioning accession process, EU–Turkey relations need a new framework that reduces the chances of further rupture and creates a new dynamic. Implementing the PA should be the starting point of this framework. In which case, the EU should consider the following four recommendations: green-light the talks to update the Customs Union; enhance migration dialogue; continue support for Turkish civil society and independent journalism; and revitalise foreign policy dialogue. 2022 will likely be a testing year. If the two parties are to move away from years of distrust and muddling through, they will have to exhibit political will and acquire a truly strategic vision for the future.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Migration, European Union, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Mediterranean
57. The Eastern Mediterranean conflict: From Turkey-Greece confrontation to regional power struggles
- Author:
- Toni Alaranta
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- For several decades, the Eastern Mediterranean confict consisted of a three-part struggle over territorial wa- ters, sovereignty and exclusionary national narratives between Turkey, Greece, and the Republic of Cyprus. Its origins can be traced as far back as the Greek War of Independence in the 1830s, the Lausanne Peace Trea- ty determining the current borders of the Republic of Turkey in 1923, and the failed bicommunal federal state established in Cyprus in 1960. Regarding the Cyprus confict, the best – but ultimately lost – opportunity to resolve the issue was the 2004 Annan Plan for a bicom- munal federal state. Today, the Eastern Mediterranean confict is a multi-level and multi-actor power strug- gle that is unlikely to wane any time soon. In addition to Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus, it also includes actors such as France, Italy, Libya, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates. Tis Briefng Paper frst identifes the main actors involved, and then proceeds to analyze the key de- terminants of the confict. Te paper concludes that tension in the Eastern Mediterranean will continue in the foreseeable future. A full military confrontation is unlikely, however, as NATO can provide a necessary platform for a Greece-Turkey de-escalation. Tis is likely to prevent an actual war, but will not be enough to produce any lasting solution in the increasingly confict-ridden Eastern Mediterranean regional power struggle.
- Topic:
- Security, Conflict, Regionalism, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Greece
58. Turkey’s relations with the US and the EU at the beginning of the Biden presidency: Prospects for change?
- Author:
- Toni Alaranta
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- US-Turkey ties are strained because of conflicting interests in Syria and on a more fundamental level due to Turkey’s different interpretation of the ongoing global power shift, and its concurrent search for strategic autonomy and cooperation with Russia and China. EU-Turkey ties have long been dysfunctional, with the EU focusing on maintaining the refugee deal, while Turkey has become increasingly authoritarian and aggressive in its external relations, resulting in a permanent ‘wait-and-see’ approach by the EU. While the US and the EU have recently agreed that they should synchronize their stance on Turkey, both are also characterized by an increasingly feverish internal debate about how best to respond to Turkey’s behaviour. A genuine fresh start in Turkey-West relations is somewhat illusionary as most of the underlying problems are more likely increasing rather than decreasing, pointing to a more permanent dual-track policy of cooperation and containment, both by the US and the EU.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, European Union, Leadership, Conflict, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, North America, and United States of America
59. Waves of ambition: Russia’s military build-up in Crimea and the Black Sea
- Author:
- Gustav Gressel
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s capacity to carry out large-scale military operations against Black Sea states allows it to coerce and extort them. Reducing the predictability of such operations is the first step towards deterring them, because Moscow carefully weighs their risks. Western countries should increase their militaries’ interoperability with Black Sea states’ armed forces and improve the infrastructure they use to deploy reinforcements in the region. This would allow them to react to Russian military escalation in kind and thereby increase the risks for Moscow. With Ukraine and Georgia engaged in land wars against Russia, the vulnerabilities of Ukrainian and Georgian airspace and territorial waters have received relatively little attention. Western states could begin to address these vulnerabilities by establishing an international naval presence in the Black Sea. This would counter Russia’s attempts to deny other nations free use of the sea, and could help mitigate long-standing rivalries between allied states in the region. These efforts to enhance Black Sea states’ security will depend on improvements in other areas, particularly the security of government communications, counter-intelligence, the rule of law, and the fight against corruption.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Military Affairs, European Union, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Turkey, Crimea, and Black Sea
60. New energies: How the European Green Deal can save the EU’s relationship with Turkey
- Author:
- Asli Aydıntaşbaş and Susi Dennison
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Europeans know that the EU needs to create a new paradigm in its relationship with Turkey after a challenging few years. The bloc also needs to develop a form of European climate leadership that complements but is distinct from Washington’s re-engagement with the green agenda. Through close cooperation with Turkey on the European Green Deal, the EU could meet both challenges and build trust in relations with Ankara. The sides have a shared interest in supporting Turkey’s pro-Western business community and in developing the promising Turkish renewables sector. EU member states should help Turkey manage the impact of the new trade regulations the European Green Deal would bring in. This refreshed approach would not resolve broader disputes over issues such as human rights – but it could start rules-based engagement and change the mood music enough to improve other areas of the relationship.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, and Green Deal
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Turkey