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Begin New Search Topic Fragile/Failed State Political Geography Middle East Content Type Policy Brief

1. ISIS War Game III: The Final Phase

Author:
Bilal Y. Saab
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
September 2015 marked the one-year anniversary of President Barack Obama's speech outlining the administration's strategy to "degrade and ultimately destroy" the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). Yet, ISIS celebrated in June its own first-year anniversary of setting up a state by conducting three nearly simultaneous terrorist operations in three different countries—France, Tunisia, and Kuwait. Just this past month, ISIS also shocked the world with its attacks in Paris and Beirut and its downing of a Russian airliner in Egypt, killing more than 400 people combined and injuring hundreds more. While nobody expected the destruction of a resilient and agile foe such as ISIS within a couple of years, it is deeply troubling that the coalition is having such a hard time even disrupting its activities.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, War, Counterinsurgency, Fragile/Failed State, and ISIS
Political Geography:
Middle East

2. Yemen's domestic and regional politics

Author:
Bernard Haykel
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Yemen is politically fragmented by three decades of misrule. Many political actors and constituencies oppose the Salih legacy and they need to be included in any future political framework if the country is to become stable. The main regional actor is Saudi Arabia, whereas the U.S. remains the principal hegemon in the region. Saudi Arabia's policy towards Yemen is in flux, whereas the U.S. is too narrowly focused on the threat posed by al-Qaeda. Unless the U.S. and the Saudis change their policies, Yemen will not develop a strong central government.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Corruption, Islam, Armed Struggle, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

3. Renewed Violence in Iraq

Author:
Douglas A. Ollivant
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Iraq remains a fragile state deeply traumatized and riven by thirty years of war, sanctions, occupation, and civil strife. Although there are numerous positive signs of progress in Iraq—violence has fallen to its lowest level since 2003, its economy is growing modestly, oil production recently surpassed that of Iran, and foreign investment is beginning to restore infrastructure decayed by years of war and sanctions—the risk of acute instability and renewed conflict remains. Already, in the wake of the U.S. military withdrawal in December 2011, Iraq has seen a fierce political struggle between Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and many of his rivals in the Sunni-dominated Iraqiya parliamentary coalition, plus increasing tension with at least some segments of the Kurdish minority. For the positive trends to continue, Iraq will need to contain various threats to internal stability and weather regional turmoil that could worsen significantly in the coming months. The United States has a significant stake in helping Iraq overcome these challenges; Iraq is a critical state within a critical region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Oil, Fragile/Failed State, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

4. The Arab Spring: How soon will foreign investors return?

Author:
Nathan M. Jensen, Persephone Economou, Paul Antony Barbour, and Daniel Villar
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
The events of the Arab Spring have dramatically increased the risk perceptions of foreign investors. In directly affected countries, these events led to disruptions in economic activity including plummeting tourism and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, all of which negatively impacted economic growth. While the economic impact was uneven across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, for the region's developing countries the growth rate assumption underpinning survey analysis in the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency's (MIGA's) World Investment and Political Risk Report for 2011 was 1.7%. How much will these developments affect future FDI?
Topic:
Political Violence, Regime Change, Foreign Aid, Fragile/Failed State, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

5. Fault lines: Tracking armed violence in Yemen

Author:
Emile LeBrun
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
A unified state for just 20 years, Yemen has endured decades of social and political turmoil. It is also afflicted by a number of interlocking armed conflicts. These range from separatist political clashes between state security forces and protesters to all-out civil war—drawing in Saudi Arabia— and terrorism, which has seen the United States, the United Kingdom, and others become involved. Meanwhile, under the international radar, simmering social conflicts—primarily over land and water—reportedly account for some 4,000 violent deaths every year.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Civil War, Armed Struggle, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen