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102. PolicyWatch #1426: The Problems of Engaging with Iran's Supreme Leader
- Author:
- Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 11-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad's congratulatory letter to U.S. president-elect Barack Obama was the first of its kind in the history of the Islamic Republic. In his letter, Ahmadinezhad expressed his hope for fundamental change in U.S. domestic and foreign policies. Although some observers speculate that the letter suggests a transformation in the mindset of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, about normalizing relations between Iran and the United States, this is unlikely. Majlis speaker Ali Larijani expressed the widespread attitude of Iranian leaders on November 9, saying, "Whoever thinks that Obama will change the U.S. foreign policy is naive."
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Islam
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and Middle East
103. PolicyWatch #1373: Bush's Last Middle East Trip Could Be More Than Just Farewells
- Author:
- Simon Henderson and David Pollock
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- President Bush returns to the Middle East this week for the second time in 2008. Initially planned to mark Israel's sixtieth anniversary, his itinerary has expanded to include meetings with top officials from Afghanistan, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, and Saudi Arabia. Except for a trip to Riyadh, these meetings will be held at a World Economic Forum conference in Sharm al-Sheikh, Egypt. This lineup prompted National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley to say the trip has "both symbolism and substance" and, considering the urgency of the issues, something of substance may actually emerge.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Asia, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Egypt, and Jordan
104. PolicyWatch #1370: Special Forum Report: Assessing the Annapolis Process
- Author:
- Zalman Shoval and Aaron David Miller
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Despite having been practically stillborn, the Annapolis peace process is not dead and has recently shown artificially induced signs of life. It has been continually retooled in order to maintain a chance of producing something by the end of President Bush's term.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
105. PolicyWatch #1354: Cheney's Middle East Trip: Iran Tops a Weighty Agenda
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On March 16, Vice President Cheney departs on a Middle East trip that will take him to Oman, Saudi Arabia, Israel, the West Bank, and Turkey. Coming less than two months after President Bush's trip to the region, the vice president's itinerary is intriguing. His undisclosed agenda with "key partners," in the words of the White House announcement, is likely to include the peace process, the price of oil, Iraq, and Iran. And among those issues, Iran will likely be the most mentioned, especially given this week's controversial resignation of Adm. William Fallon as the top U.S. commander in the Middle East -- a move attributed in part to differences on Iran between him and the White House.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and Middle East
106. PolicyWatch #1336: Setbacks in Arab League Mediation on Lebanon
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Over the past week, Beirut has been rocked by violence yet again. On January 25, a Lebanese Internal Security Forces officer working with the UN investigation into Rafiq Hariri's assassination was killed by a car bomb. And on January 27, seven Shiite antigovernment demonstrators were killed by the Lebanese army. These incidents come only two months after pro-Syrian president Emile Lahoud vacated his office, leaving a power vacuum in his wake. Despite vigorous Arab League mediation efforts, the prospects for electing a replacement appear bleak. And with no end in sight, Lebanon's security situation is likely to deteriorate further.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Lebanon
107. PolicyWatch #1332: Bush's Freedom Agenda: Alive but Not Kicking
- Author:
- J. Scott Carpenter
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Prior to President Bush's trip to the Middle East last week, many pundits expected him to focus little, if at all, on his longstanding "freedom agenda." Instead, he adopted a nuanced approach that managed to restate the key elements of his policy and to press, however gently, for further political and economic reform. Speaking before the trip, a senior State Department official summed up the approach: the president would not "beat up on anyone" but would press privately for stronger reform efforts at each stop and give praise where it was due. Indeed, the president's reiteration of the freedom agenda signaled that the United States remains engaged on certain policy issues that many governments hoped would disappear altogether. At the same time, however, these issues were clearly the trip's third priority (after Arab-Israeli peace and regional security), confirming that the freedom agenda has become a tertiary concern for the Bush administration.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
108. PolicyWatch #1328: Bush's Middle East Trip: The President Embraces Rice's Approach
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- President Bush's recent visit to Israel and the Palestinian territories came six weeks after the Middle East peace conference in Annapolis. That parley marked the first time the United States did not mandate a purely sequential approach to the peace process. Instead, Washington now wants issues to be solved in parallel, with the implementation of past obligations occurring simultaneously with final agreement on the core issues of Jerusalem, refugees, and security. Bush's reiteration of this policy approach during his trip suggests that he has adopted Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's peacemaking approach as his own.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
109. Ahmedinejad's Visit to Turkey: Two Neighbors Oscillate between Threat and Friendship
- Author:
- Nasuhi Gungor
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- This article considers the August 2008 visit to Turkey by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, and analyzes relations between Turkey and Iran in general. The tensions and crises that followed the 1979 Iranian Revolution are briefly presented in order to provide a better understanding of the present state of relations. Then we draw a picture of the situation after the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002, bringing widespread changes to Turkish foreign policy. We also call attention to Turkey's changing role in the regional balance of power, and to the significance of that role both in Turkey's relations with Iran and with the United States.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Turkey, and Middle East
110. Turkish-Armenian Relations: Will Football Diplomacy Work?
- Author:
- Fatih Ozbay and Bülent Aras
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- The Georgian-Russian crisis, the political and economic alienation of Armenia in the Caucasus, Turkey's new project to establish the Caucasus Stability Platform, and the Turkish and Armenian administrations' willingness to normalize relations have created a suitable atmosphere in which to put an end to the problems between Turkey and Armenia. Turkish President Abdullah Gul accepted the invitation of his counterpart, Armenian President Serge Sarkisian, to watch the World Cup-qualifying football match between Turkey and Armenia in Yerevan. This visit was considered an important symbolic move. It will be a matter of time to see whether this 'football diplomacy' will pave the way for the normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, Armenia, and Georgia
111. 2007 EU Progress Report on Turkey: A Step Forward?
- Author:
- Mesut Özcan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- The EU progress reports on candidate countries are important indicators of how EU institutions manage and monitor the accession process. The 2007 European Union progress report on Turkey's EU membership gives a comprehensive account of how EU evaluates the political developments in Turkey. While the report is overall positive and supportive of the reform agenda of the AK Party government, it contains legitimate criticisms as well as debatable assessments on the Cyprus issue. Despite the shortcomings, Turkey should continue its efforts to strengthen democratization and focus on public diplomacy in the EU member countries.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Middle East
112. A Diplomatic Offensive for Iraq
- Author:
- Larry Diamond and Carlos Pascual
- Publication Date:
- 06-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- U.S. policy on Iraq must address both diplomatic and military strategy together to realize any chance for sustainable peace. That was one of the central themes of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group report, yet the need for a diplomatic strategy to achieve a political settlement among warring Iraqis has largely been ignored in the debate on whether to “surge” or “withdraw” troops.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
113. PolicyWatch #1315: Unwanted Guest: The Gulf Summit and Iran
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On December 3-4, Arab leaders representing Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Oman met in the Qatari capital, Doha, for their annual Gulf Cooperative Council (GCC) summit, which for the first time was attended by an Iranian president. In November, the UAE set a precedent by impounding an Iranian-bound shipment of undisclosed material banned by UN Security Council Resolutions 1737 and 1747 because of its potential use for nuclear weapons or missile programs. All of this came against the background of the new U.S. National Intelligence Estimate, which assessed that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Kuwait, Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar
114. PolicyWatch #1312: Bush at Annapolis: Hints about the Final Thirteen Months
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The Annapolis summit featured an impressive display of international support for renewed Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. Beyond the headlines and photo-ops, the most significant aspect of the event was that President Bush offered little sign he plans to devote the final months of his administration to a high-stakes personal quest for a permanent peace treaty between the two parties.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Israel
115. PolicyWatch #1309: Confidence Building after Annapolis
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 11-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In recent weeks, the United States has reduced expectations that the upcoming Annapolis peace conference will culminate in a diplomatic breakthrough for all parties after almost seven years of terror, violence, and non-engagement. Instead, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice seeks to revive the moribund 2003 Roadmap, and introduce a new dual-track approach. She wants the parties to implement the first phase of the Roadmap, which deals with modifying the behavior of both sides, while simultaneously -- rather than sequentially according to the 2003 plan -- negotiate the third phase, which deals with the final status issues such as Jerusalem, refugees, borders, and security.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Israel
116. PolicyWatch #1308: Six Critical Questions for Annapolis and Beyond
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 11-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The purpose of the Annapolis summit now is to launch negotiations within the framework of the Roadmap to Middle East peace, the dormant and often maligned plan that provides neither the Israelis nor the Palestinians a setting to establish a "political horizon" for a future Palestinian state. With lowering expectations over the past few weeks, the event itself is -- almost by definition -- doomed to succeed. Only a few days remain before the conference begins, but the following critical questions remain unanswered.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Israel
117. PolicyWatch #1307: Tony Blair Takes on West Bank Aid
- Author:
- James Lindsay
- Publication Date:
- 11-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Former British prime minister Tony Blair, now the Quartet's special Middle East envoy, has announced that he will soon determine the first set of projects meant to improve economic conditions in the West Bank, specifically mentioning projects around the town of Jericho. Although Blair will no doubt ignore calls from Hamas supporters to bolster their Gaza regime, it remains to be seen which projects in the West Bank he believes are worthy of funding. Regardless of what he decides, there are a few considerations he should take into account in trying to ensure West Bank stability at a time when new peace initiatives are unfolding.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Humanitarian Aid, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
118. PolicyWatch #1306: Palestinian Politics and the Annapolis Meeting
- Author:
- Mohammad Yaghi
- Publication Date:
- 11-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The huge turnout of an estimated 250,000 Fatah supporters at a November 12 Gaza rally commemorating the third anniversary of Yasser Arafat's death reflects not only the worsening economic conditions since Hamas's June takeover, but also the factional rivalry over who is authorized to negotiate on behalf of the Palestinians at the upcoming Annapolis peace meeting. Since it is unable to provide services to Palestinians in Gaza, Hamas is using the meeting to delegitimize the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), threaten the delicate security situation in the West Bank, and solidify its own domination of Gaza. Meanwhile, Fatah seeks to restore its influence in Gaza, challenge Hamas's claims of authority, and protect its control of the West Bank.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
119. PolicyWatch #1302: Annapolis and a Dual-Track Peace Process
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 11-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Public remarks by top U.S., Israeli, and Palestinian officials this week indicate that the character of the upcoming Middle East peace conference in Annapolis has changed. First, instead of the expected pre-conference declaration of final status -- principles and conceptual tradeoffs on core issues such as Jerusalem, borders, security, and refugees -- Annapolis will only mark the beginning of negotiations on these issues. Second, the November conference will attempt to revive the moribund Quartet Roadmap laid out by the United States, UN, European Union, and Russia in 2003, with particular focus on the plan's first phase: cooperative on-the-ground action by both sides to improve Palestinian security performance and curb Israeli settlement activity, among other issues. Finally, the United States will seek to use Annapolis as a means of galvanizing international support for Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and President Mahmoud Abbas.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Middle East, and Israel
120. PolicyWatch #1290: Losing Traction against Syria
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 09-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The September 6 Israeli bombing of a presumed North Korean-supplied nuclear weapons facility in Syria highlights the ongoing policy challenge posed by Damascus. More than three years after President Bush signed the Syria Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act (SAA), Syria continues to support terrorism, destabilize Iraq, meddle in Lebanon, and develop weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile systems. This week's headlines tell the story: on September 19, yet another anti-Syrian parliamentarian was assassinated in Lebanon; the same day, Jane's Defence Weekly reported that a July 2007 chemical weapons accident in Syria -- involving mustard gas and VX and sarin nerve agents -- killed fifteen Syrian officers and dozens of Iranian engineers.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Israel, North Korea, Lebanon, and Syria
121. PolicyWatch #1289: Rice's Obstacles on the Road to an Israeli-Palestinian Breakthrough
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 09-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice recently visited Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas to get personal briefings from each leader regarding their sensitive discussions on peace. Such briefings are designed so that Rice can identify the existing gaps between the parties and fashion U.S. strategy in advance of a planned November meeting in Washington. These gaps will likely determine the scope of her potential shuttle diplomacy during her next visit to the region in the coming weeks. They will also become increasingly clear as Israeli and Palestinian delegations meet and begin drafting a potential declaration of principles (DOP) within ten days time, as a senior Israeli official has reported.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
122. PolicyWatch #1261: Reading Between the Lines of President Bush's July 16 Address
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 07-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- President Bush's July 16 address on the Middle East peace process was a mix of the old and the new, offering neither an unequivocal reaffirmation of past approaches nor a thoroughly novel direction for Arab-Israeli diplomacy in the wake of Hamas's coup in Gaza.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Gaza
123. PolicyWatch #1258: U.S. Support for the Iranian Opposition
- Author:
- Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 07-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Directly reaching the Iranian people can be achieved in two ways: (1) supporting political opposition groups that explicitly advocate regime change, and (2) empowering human rights and other nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) that do not directly engage in political action but support issues such as women and children's rights, labor rights, and religious freedom. Although the latter groups do not pursue political goals, the Iranian regime considers them subversive entities seeking to overthrow the Islamic Republic.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy and Non-Governmental Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and Middle East
124. As UN Ceasefire Resolutions Loom, Diplomatic Gaps Remain
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As diplomacy to end hostilities between Israel and Lebanon intensifies at the United Nations, with a first resolution passed perhaps on Monday, conceptual gaps between the parties remain. The differences range from substantive to procedural. France has been at the center of diplomacy surrounding the passage of a UN Security Council resolution, since it is expected to lead the multinational force to southern Lebanon. From the outset of its consultations with the United States, which are at the center of UN diplomacy, France has sought two Security Council resolutions; this plan has won the backing of U.S. secretary of state Condoleezza Rice. The first resolution would declare an immediate ceasefire and establish general principles to guide the period after the ceasefire. The second resolution would, among other things, define the scope and mission of the multinational force.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, France, and Lebanon
125. Israel's War against Hizballah and Its Battle against Hamas
- Author:
- Shimon Peres
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On August 1, 2006, the Honorable Shimon Peres addressed the Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum to discuss Israel's political and military strategy in its war against Hizballah. Shimon Peres is the deputy prime minister of Israel and a member of Knesset from the Kadima Party. A former prime minister, defense minister, and foreign minister, he has played a central role in the political life of Israel for more than half a century and was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1994. The following is a rapporteur's summary of Mr. Peres's remarks.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, and Israel
126. An International Stabilization Force for Lebanon: Problems and Prospects
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As diplomacy to halt the violence in Lebanon slowly gathers momentum, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has endorsed the idea of an international “stabilization force” to keep the peace, seconding proposals previously put forward by UN secretary-general Kofi Annan, British prime minister Tony Blair, and European Union foreign policy envoy Javier Solana. Such a force, however, is liable to face major obstacles and incur substantial risks that could jeopardize its prospects for success. For this reason it is essential to consider what past experiences in Lebanon, the Middle East, and elsewhere teach about peacekeeping and peace enforcement operations, the sort of challenges such a force could encounter, and the kind of mandate and capabilities required to meet these challenges.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
127. Chinese-Saudi Cooperation: Oil but also Missiles
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On April 22, two days after a reportedly unproductive meeting with President George W. Bush in Washington, President Hu Jintao of China will arrive in Saudi Arabia. Relations between the two countries are an increasingly important part of world diplomacy. In energy, China is the leading customer of Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter. On the military front, the kingdom bought now-obsolete ballistic missiles with a 1,500-mile range from China in the 1980s; the Saudis are reportedly interested in replacing them with more modern Chinese-designed missiles, perhaps with Pakistani nuclear warheads. Unlike his American visit, Hu's trip to the kingdom will unambiguously be given the status of a state visit. It is especially significant because King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia visited China as recently as January this year, the first visit by a Saudi monarch since diplomatic relations were established in 1990 and Abdullah's first trip outside the Middle East since becoming monarch last August. During the January meeting, five agreements covering economic cooperation trade and double taxation as well as an energy pact were signed. Energy is expected to be central to the latest talks, though a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman noted it was “not the only domain” of cooperation.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, China, America, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia
128. Hamas's Rise and Israel's Choice
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On January 23, 2006, Washington Institute executive director Robert Satloff addressed the 2006 Herzliya Conference on the Balance of Israel's National Security. Excerpts from Dr. Satloff's remarks follow. “Beware the unintended consequences of sound policies. On June 24, 2002, President Bush announced a major shift in U.S. policy. No longer would fulfillment of diplomatic requirements—that is, acceptance of UN Security Council Resolution 242 or recognizing Israel's right to exist—alone merit the full engagement of the United States in assisting Palestinians as they try to achieve their legitimate rights through negotiations with Israel. From then on, how they handled themselves at home—whether they are corrupt, whether they are democratic, whether they are, as the president said, 'untainted by terrorism'—would all matter.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, and Middle East
129. Karen Hughes' Indonesia Visit Underscores Bush Administration's PR Problems
- Author:
- Stephen Zunes
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- It is doubtful that the Bush administration will be very successful advancing America's image in the Islamic world as long as its representatives have such trouble telling the truth. A case in point took place on October 21, when U.S. Undersecretary of State for Public Diplomacy Karen Hughes was talking before a group of university students in Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim country. As she has found elsewhere in her visits in the Islamic world, there is enormous popular opposition to the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the ongoing U.S. counter-insurgency war.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, America, Indonesia, Middle East, and Southeast Asia
130. Iran Is Not an Island: A Strategy to Mobilize the Neighbors
- Author:
- George Perkovich
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- With luck, Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons could be delayed through a combination of Iranian technical difficulties, U.S. military action, and European diplomacy. However, neither delay nor regime change would remove the causes of proliferation pressures in Iran. Iran needs to be assured that the U.S. will respect its autonomy if it ceases nuclear weapons development, while Iran's neighbors need to be reassured that Tehran will respect their interests. Arab governments are reluctant to join in a regional security dialogue in part because of Washington's double standard regarding Israel's nuclear arsenal and treatment of Palestinians. To mobilize all of the international actors opposing Iranian nuclear development, the U.S. must recognize that Iranian proliferation, Persian Gulf security, the U.S. role in the Middle East, Israel's nuclear status, and Palestinian-Israeli relations are all linked and cannot be resolved without a more balanced U.S. stance.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Tehran, Palestine, and Persia
131. A Bedouin on a Camel? Saudi Foreign Policy and the Insurgency in Iraq
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Iraq's interior minister, Bayan Jabr, lashed out at Saudi diplomacy while speaking to journalists in Amman on October 2. Referring to Prince Saud al-Faisal, the Saudi foreign minister, Jabr said Iraq would not be lectured by "some Bedouin riding a camel." Broadening his remarks to the Saudi ruling family, the House of Saud, the Iraqi minister said, "There are regimes that are dictatorships; they have one god, he is the king, he is god of heaven and earth, and he rules as he likes. A whole country is named after a family."
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, United Nations, and War
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Washington, and Middle East
132. Engaging Israel: The Significance of the Istanbul Meeting between Israel and Pakistan
- Author:
- Simon Henderson and Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The September 1 meeting in the Turkish city of Istanbul between Israeli foreign minister Silvan Shalom and his Pakistani counterpart, Khurshid Kasuri, was historic. There have been no public official contacts between the two nations since Pakistan was founded in 1947 as a home for Muslims in the Indian subcontinent just a few months before Israel, the Jewish national home, achieved statehood in 1948. The meeting represents a major breakthrough in Jerusalem's efforts to overcome diplomatic isolation and also indicates that Turkey is determined to play a more active role than previously thought.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Turkey, Middle East, and Israel
133. From Diplomatic Talking Shop to Powerful Partnership?
- Author:
- Halle Malmvig
- Publication Date:
- 05-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- NATO plans to play a greater role in the Middle East. At the upcoming summit in Istanbul, the Alliance is expected to boost its neglected cooperation programme with seven states in the Middle East - the so-called Mediterranean Dialogue. The Dialogue is to be turned into a Partnership programme modelled on the Partnership for Peace (PfP) experience. This brief argues that NATO only can play a limited role in the efforts to reform and strengthen relations with Middle Eastern states. NATO does not have the political and economic tools necessary for tackling the root causes of the security problems in the Middle East, and there is a real danger that increased cooperation on terrorism and defence reform may undermine the overall goal of democratic and genuine change in the region.
- Topic:
- International Relations, NATO, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
134. Saudi Arabia/United States — Strained Relations
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Crown Prince Abdallah bin Abd al-Aziz yesterday described relations with Washington as "excellent". Despite these remarks, US-Saudi ties are under greater strain than at any time since the 1973-74 oil embargo, with the value of relations under question in the media of both countries, reflecting public feelings. These sentiments are not shared by the governing elites in either Washington or Riyadh, but they are constraining how the governments deal with one another. The removal of US forces from the Prince Sultan Airbase might ease the domestic pressure on Riyadh and give it more room to cooperate with Washington on other matters related to the war on terrorism. However, if Washington targets Iraq militarily, and Saudi Arabia rejects US requests for cooperation, relations will be severely damaged.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia
135. End of a Brief Affair? The United States and Iran
- Author:
- Daniel Brumberg
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Following the September 11 atrocities, a senior U.S. administration official declared that Iran and the United States “see the situation pretty much the same way,” and thus would probably “cooperate” in the war against the Taliban and al Qaeda. This prediction soon became reality. Tehran not only contributed to the rout of the Taliban by supplying food and arms to the Northern Alliance, it also provided military advisers, some of whom probably passed their American counterparts along the road to Kabul.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Iran, and Middle East
136. Kashmir and the "War on Terrorism"
- Author:
- Cynthia Mahmood
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
- Abstract:
- Kashmir is one of the conflicts implicated in the current "war" of the U.S. and its allies against certain forms of radical Islam. A long-term solution to the conflict in Kashmir cannot be found without consideration of the wishes of the Kashmiri people. The three-option plebiscite, giving Kashmiris a choice among accession to India, accession to Pakistan, or full sovereignty, is an avenue that must be explored. The United Nations should serve as the organizer of such a plebiscite and should be the ultimate guarantor of its results. Convincing Pakistan and India of the ultimate wisdom of such a course can be part of current negotiations around the events in Afghanistan that now demand our attention.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, Middle East, Asia, and Kashmir
137. Israel/Turkey: Strategic Ties
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Israel's Chief of Staff Shaul Mofaz met senior Turkish defence officials on July 27 to discuss defence cooperation. Israel and Turkey, facing similar strategic problems based on shared interests and fears, are in the process of building the most powerful alliance in the Middle East. They are doing so in the face of opposition from the Arab and Muslim worlds as well wider concerns, notably on the part of Russia. The Turkish-Israeli alliance now appears sufficiently robust, at least for the moment, to withstand opposition from the Arab and Muslim world. Moreover, US support for the entente may grow owing to concerns about terrorism and stability in the eastern Mediterranean basin, as well as the administration's renewed emphasis on stability in the Gulf.
- Topic:
- Security and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Israel
138. Middle East — Arafat Manoeuvres
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Senior Palestinian officials this week rejected US President Bill Clinton's peace proposals. All the Palestinian factions have now rejected the proposals designed to end the conflict with Israel. This is a sign of the overwhelming domestic pressure Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat is under. However, his position remains one of conditional acceptance as he awaits further US interpretations and clarifications. Arafat's conditional acceptance of the US proposals is an attempt to improve his diplomatic position. He hopes to make use of the enhanced Arab engagement in the Palestinian-Israeli peace process to improve on the terms of a future peace agreement. This will be essential if he is to win domestic approval of any deal.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
139. Prime Minister Barak's First Year: Diplomacy and Politics
- Author:
- Zalman Shoval
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Prime Minister Ehud Barak's tenure started out with almost everything going his way. He had what was often, though misleadingly, described as a "landslide victory" in the 1999 elections (though, in truth, Jewish voters gave him only a slim 3.2 percent majority over Netanyahu - compared to the almost 12 percent margin by which Netanyahu had defeated Peres in the previous elections). Nonetheless, it is true that Barak achieved better electoral results than most other prime ministers in Israeli history. As a result, no Israeli prime minister in recent memory had begun his term with a greater degree of goodwill from different segments of the population - including many who had voted for the other candidate.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Diplomacy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
140. CIAO: Middle East — Arafat's Ambitions
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Israel this week launched missile attacks against Palestinian security targets in Gaza in retaliation for the bombing of a school bus carrying settlers. Tel Aviv and Washington have blamed Palestinian National Authority President Yasser Arafat for the current crisis, saying he could reduce the violence. In fact, the uprising is a spontaneous revolt against the terms of the Oslo peace process. Far from being undermined by the crisis, Arafat is using it to maximise his political and diplomatic position in the event that negotiations resume. The crisis marks a decisive shift in the Palestinians' conditions for peace with Israel.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
141. From Shebaa To Al-Quds: The Evolution Of Hizballah
- Author:
- Yossi Baidatz and Rachel Stroumsa
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- While international attention has been focused on the shift from diplomacy to violence in the Israeli–Palestinian arena, the "comeback" of Lebanon's Hizballah organization as an instigator of conflict has been, to some observers, a surprise. Following Israel's withdrawal from the "security zone" in May 2000, it was widely held that Hizballah would rest on its laurels and focus on its political/social agenda inside Lebanon. Instead, as recent events show, Hizballah has chosen to persist in its military strategy against Israel. Indeed, in contrast to the low-intensity conflict on the Palestinian front, Hizballah's actions have the potential to trigger a full-scale, inter-state war.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Lebanon
142. Assessing Barak's Election Gambit
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak's surprise resignation Saturday night has plunged the country's already battered political system into further turmoil, and so far, his gambit seems to have failed. Barak's move was clearly designed, at least in part, to utilize a provision in Israeli law that would sideline his once and would-be opponent Benjamin Netanyahu from running in a special election for prime minister on February 6. Moreover, Barak hoped that by avoiding a general election, he could avert the reconfiguration of the Knesset since polls show that if elections were held today, it would become a more rightward-leaning body.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
143. The Separation Option: An Alternative To The Peace Process?
- Author:
- Dan Schueftan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Recently, public opinion in both Israel and the Palestinian territories has shifted in ways that argue for separation or disengagement. Israelis no longer accept the notion that negotiations will eventually lead to peace, but they are far more willing to make concessions to the Palestinians. Palestinians no longer expect a final agreement with Israel, and have instead shifted toward the Lebanon model of using violence to force an Israeli retreat — a trend with tragic implications for the future of Palestinian society.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia
144. Israeli Elections And The Peace Process
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak's decision yesterday to preempt his opponents and announce his willingness to hold early elections must be seen in the context of his interest in reviving the peace process. The vote for early balloting was driven by both animus toward the failed Camp David summit and by the Barak government's handling of the subsequent Al-Aqsa Intifada.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
145. A UN Protection Force For Palestinians: Background And Implications
- Author:
- Robert Satloff and Rachel Stroumsa
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In recent weeks, Arab parties from the Palestinian Authority (PA) to the Arab League summit have called for the dispatch of a United Nations force to the West Bank and Gaza in order to protect Palestinian civilians from Israeli military force. Rather than reject this idea because of its contribution to the internationalization of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, the U.S. view has been to cite its impracticality, given Israeli opposition. Remarkably, the Israeli government itself seems to be hinting that it may be willing to consider the proposal, especially in the event of a reduction in violence. This is evidenced by recent talks between Israeli and Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) representatives to the United Nations, reportedly hosted by their Egyptian colleague.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Diplomacy, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Gaza, and Egypt
146. Special Policy Forum Report: Israeli Security Strategy: Facing Multiple Fronts
- Author:
- Ephraim Sneh
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Recently, four factors have combined to make the situation in the Middle East far more combustible than it is has been for a long time. These elements are: Iraq has managed to break out of the boundaries imposed by the UN sanctions regime and to evade weapons inspections. Saddam Husayn is now stronger than ever and ready to play a role in the region. He has signaled this intention by his deployment of troops on the western borders of Iraq just before the Arab summit in Egypt. Although he has since pulled them back, this maneuver was intended to send the message that Saddam Husayn is a force to be reckoned with from now on. Iran has enhanced its efforts to use a consortium of terrorist groups against the remnants of the peace process. Intelligence information shows that Iran has deployed long-range Katyusha missiles in Lebanon and that it is encouraging Hizballah activities against Israel. Syrian president Bashar al-Assad has disappointed most analysts, who hoped that he would focus on addressing Syria's economy and other domestic concerns. Instead, his speeches both at the Arab summit in Egypt and at the Organization of the Islamic Conference in Qatar have been extremely bellicose. In addition, it is clear that the recent kidnappings by Hizballah and a Palestinian group's attempt to infiltrate Israel through Lebanon could not have taken place without at the least a green light from Damascus, even if Bashar himself did not authorize them specifically. Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Yasir Arafat has evidently changed course from negotiation to confrontation. So far, the Palestinian cause has proven to be uniting force in the Arab world; under certain circumstances, it might also serve as a good pretext for resumption of full-scale hostilities.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Diplomacy, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Syria, and Egypt
147. Non-Lethal Weapons, 'Excessive Force' And The Al-Aqsa Intifada
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Since the beginning of the Al-Aqsa Intifada, accusations that Israel has used "excessive force" in dealing with Palestinians have led to calls for Israel to employ "non-lethal" weapons as a way to reduce Palestinian casualties and stem the cycle of violence between the two sides. In fact, however, Israel is already using the rather limited range of traditional "less lethal" (LL) and "non-lethal" (NL) weapons that are used by most modern armies. More exotic, nontraditional concepts that have been under development in the past few years are either not yet ready for fielding (as in the case of so-called "acoustic weapons"), or have potential drawbacks which vitiate their potential operational utility (as with "sticky foam").
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia
148. Special Policy Forum Report: Arafat's Strategy -- Impose An Intifada, Spillover To The Arab World
- Author:
- Ehud Yaari
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The events of the past five weeks are not a repeat of the Palestinian Intifada of 1987-90, a spontaneous uprising that caught both Chairman Yasir Arafat and Israel equally by surprise. Rather, the current uprising is a confrontation imposed by Arafat on the Palestinian street. Three major elements of the original Intifada are missing in the current situation: 1) The countryside, a backbone of the original Intifada, has so far opted out of the current struggle; 2) the population of east Jerusalem has distanced itself, to the extent that the Tanzim has had to send people from Ramallah and the refugee camps into Jerusalem in order to engineer confrontations. Seen from this angle, the shooting of Israeli guards at the National Insurance Institute in east Jerusalem is a signal to Jerusalem Arabs that Arafat will not permit them to remain on the sidelines; 3) the lower middle classes, a prominent player during the original Intifada, are absent. While thousands may participate in funeral processions, very few (including very few students) join in confrontations with Israeli soldiers at the major flashpoints; the size of these confrontations rarely exceeds a few hundred.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Jerusalem
149. The Israeli-Lebanese Border Dispute And Resolution 425: Recent Declarations By The United States And The United Nations
- Author:
- Liat Radcliffe
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- "The Arab leaders affirm that just, comprehensive peace will not be achieved except with . . . the restoration of all the occupied Arab territories, including full Israeli withdrawal from . . . southern Lebanon to the internationally recognized borders, including Shebaa farms, the release of Arab prisoners in Israeli prisons in implementation of the relevant UN resolutions. . . ."
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Diplomacy, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Lebanon
150. Between Terrorism And Truce: Developments In Middle East Violence
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The truce reached today should be interpreted very cautiously, given both today's terror bombing in Jerusalem, which killed two Israeli civilians, and the two previous failed ceasefires recently brokered by the United States in Paris and Sharm el-Sheikh, respectively. Palestinian Authority (PA) leader Yasir Arafat was due to announce the truce but instead opted to have other PA officials announce it on Palestinian television and radio. Moreover, Hamas quickly declared that it is not bound by the terms of the ceasefire. Prime Minister Ehud Barak's office nevertheless announced that the ceasefire is in effect.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Paris, Arabia, and Jerusalem