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2. Power and potential: The economics of Egyptian construction and ICT
- Author:
- Matteo Colombo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Young Egyptians’ dissatisfaction with their employment prospects was a key driver of protests in 2011 and 2013. Since then, the country’s political authorities have worked hard to create job opportunities for young Egyptians by boosting growth in the construction sector (infrastructure and public works), among other things. Since the sector also generates substantial revenues for the country’s power elite, this has been a win-win strategy in the short-term. But overreliance on the construction sector has also created too many informal and unstable jobs that are a poor match for Egypt’s many well-educated graduates. Cairo’s growth strategy has not addressed some of the country’s long-standing economic problems, such as informality and a low overall employment rate. Giving the country’s promising ICT sector a boost similar to that of the construction sector to address such deficiencies and anticipate a looming debt crisis requires a paradigm shift with two elements. First, a deal between Egypt’s political authorities and the power elite that buys time in exchange for future rents. Second, facilitation of private sector dynamism through regulatory encouragement and public seed funding for new business activity.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Employment, and Construction
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Egypt
3. Trading short-term gains for long-term costs: the Egyptian political economy under al-Sisi
- Author:
- Matteo Colombo
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Egypt’s political economy has been operating on the basis of three core principles over the last few decades. First, the country’s political authorities set strategic economic objectives in a top-down manner. Second, the power elite supports the political authorities and, in exchange, tightly supervises homegrown and foreign investment to generate revenues and job opportunities, as well as private benefits. Third, Egyptian citizens acquiesce, willingly or unwillingly, in this division of power that mostly benefits the political authorities and power elites in exchange for improvements in their livelihoods. Since 2014, President al-Sisi has held closely to these principles but relied increasingly on Egypt’s military networks (part of the power elite) to boost economic growth. This strategy has produced short-term gains – informal jobs and an array of consumer goods – at the expense of long-term economic prospects. In particular, the military’s economic influence has deepened some of Egypt’s structural problems: low productivity, inequality, informal unemployment and a suppressed private sector. This limits the future sustainability of the current economic model. Improving Egypt’s economic prospects requires reducing the role of the state – especially the military – in the economy in terms of decreasing the number of associated enterprises and lightening the regulatory framework. However, this is nearly impossible to realise in sectors in which the military already has a dominant profile, such as construction and extractives, because its support is essential for al-Sisi to maintain power. A more promising alternative for European policy makers to consider is influencing the Egyptian government to limit military influence in sectors with growth potential where the military is largely absent, such as manufacturing and Information and Communications Technology (ICT). A government strategy that prevents further military involvement in these sectors, crafts a regulatory framework conducive to private investment and invites foreign funding, can help Egypt realise greater economic growth and higher fiscal revenues.
- Topic:
- Development, Political Economy, Economy, and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Egypt
4. Local Economic Councils: A Tool to Improve Business Productivity in Yemen
- Author:
- Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Even before the events of 2014 and 2015 that led Yemen into the ongoing civil war, its economy was fragile. The years of hardship that have haunted the country ever since have been devastating. Yemen is now rated as one of the hardest places in the world for businesses to operate and is last or near last in a host of global business competitiveness indexes. From January 25-27,2021 the seventh Development Champions Forum, held virtually, focused on this dire national situation. To help address local economic challenges, the Development Champions discussed the possibility of establishing Local Economic Councils. According to their analysis, between the existing community-level local development committees (which guide targeted, small scale infrastructure investment from development funds such as the Social Fund for Development and the World Bank) and the Supreme Economic Council (which guides sector-led state investment at a national level), a space exists for a governorate-level body to drive development by guiding investment to serve local needs and strengthen ties between the governorates and the private sector.
- Topic:
- Development, Economy, Business, Conflict, and Local Councils
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
5. Iraqi diaspora mobilization and the future development of Iraq
- Author:
- Oula Kadhum
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Iraqi diaspora mobilization and the future development of Iraq – authored by Dr. Oula Kadhum, explores Iraqi diaspora mobilization before and after the 2003 invasion and fall of the regime of Saddam Hussein. It looks at the ways members of the diaspora sought to help in the rebuilding of their country of origin, at both the elite and grassroots levels, as well as investigating changes over time. Importantly, it analyses the obstacles that have hindered diaspora mobilization since 2003 and argues that the Iraqi diaspora is a valuable, yet largely untapped resource for Iraq.
- Topic:
- Development, Diplomacy, Politics, Diaspora, Resilience, and Society
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
6. Still Treading Water: Reviewing six years of the Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism and the dire water situation in the Gaza Strip
- Author:
- Laila Barhoum
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- Six years after the establishment of the Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism (GRM), people in Gaza continue to live on the brink of disaster as a result of 13 years of the Israeli blockade. The water, sanitation and health (WASH) sector remains significantly damaged, with Gaza facing the complete collapse of its wastewater treatment system. The reconstruction process is ongoing, but it is slow, costly, and hampers the humanitarian response. Six years after the establishment of the Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism (GRM), people in Gaza continue to live on the brink of disaster as a result of a 13 year blockade imposed by Israel. The water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) sector remains significantly damaged, with Gaza facing a stark deterioration of available WASH services at the community and household level. The reconstruction process is ongoing, but it is slow, costly, and hampers the humanitarian response. The COVID-19 pandemic has severely aggravated existing vulnerabilities, including access to water and sanitation. This strongly impacts the daily lives of over 2 million people living in the coastal enclave, of whom 1.5 million – or 75% – have been identified as being in need of humanitarian assistance. Oxfam has recently reviewed the challenges associated with the GRM and its impact on the WASH sector in Gaza. Its findings reveal that these challenges are an obstacle to the reconstruction of WASH infrastructure (including operation and maintenance), hindering efforts to address the increased needs of people in Gaza. Donors and UN agencies should consider the needs of people in Gaza today. Rather than continuing with the GRM, they should explore how they can improve their engagement to be able to challenge the Israeli access restrictions, work towards economic development, ensure accountability within access mechanisms, and facilitate inclusive Palestinian participation to access mechanisms and the reconstruction of Gaza.
- Topic:
- Development, Infrastructure, Conflict, COVID-19, and Humanitarian Response
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
7. Peace and illicit drugs at the margins: A borderland view of Afghanistan’s SDG 16
- Author:
- Orzala Nemat
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan is in the process of developing its national goals and targets in relation to the global sustainable development goals (SDGs). There are 17 SDGs which have been broken down into a total of 169 targets. But how are these globally agreed goals being addressed in Afghanistan? In what ways do they specifically address the particular political challenges that Afghanistan faces, and the geographical divisions of the country? Drawing from long-term research on the drug economy and the more recent research of the Drugs & (dis)order project in three borderland provinces in Afghanistan – Badakhshan, Nangarhar and Nimroz – this briefing paper argues that the current A-SDG 16 fails both to identify the challenges that these borderlands pose to the achievement of SDG 16, and to recognise the opportunities that they might offer for peace building.
- Topic:
- Development, Borders, Drugs, Illegal Trade, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Middle East
8. Investing in Jordan Through Support for Social Enterprises
- Author:
- Lilian Tauber
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- By committing to long-term investments in Jordan’s communities through support for social enterprises, the United States can contribute to the country’s stability and economic growth. In Jordan, one of the United States’ most reliable allies in the Middle East, economic volatility is a major threat to stability and has led to recurrent protests since 2011. High youth unemployment rates and a large refugee population contribute to its economic woes and political tensions, all of which are now exacerbated in the Covid-19 pandemic. The United States can support Jordan’s recovery from the pandemic through long-term investment in social entrepreneurship. The country’s entrepreneurship ecosystem is in a developing stage, with most resources focused on short-term funding and training, so a shift in U.S. aid to longer-term support can make a significant difference. Increasing funds and providing multi-year mentorship and operational support to select social enterprises (SEs) will allow them to become powerful forces for positive change and civic engagement in their communities.
- Topic:
- Development, Foreign Aid, Economy, and Investment
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Jordan, and United States of America
9. Development Cooperation with Conflict-Affected MENA Countries: Refocussing on the Social Contract
- Author:
- Mark Furness and Annabelle Houdret
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- State–society relations are in flux across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), nearly a decade after the Arab uprisings. The protests and revolts that swept the region in 2011 arose from widespread rejection of the post-independence Arab social contracts. These were based on redistribution of rents from natural resources and other forms of transfers and subsidies, as “compensation” for acquiescence to political and economic authoritarianism. In several MENA countries, including Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen, but also in Algeria, Lebanon and Palestine, the old social contracts have been destroyed by civil conflicts and internationally sponsored wars, which in some cases predated the 2011 uprisings. Since broken social contracts are at the root of conflict in the MENA region, supporting new social contracts should be the core objective of development cooperation with the region’s most conflict-affected countries. But “post-conflict reconstruction” often ignores the fact that conflicts do not end with peace agreements, and conflict-affected societies need more than reconstructed infrastructure, institutional capacity and private sector investment if they are to avoid violence in the future. Development agencies term this kind of cooperation “resilience”: promoting political, economic, social and environmental stability, rather than risking uncontrollable, revolutionary transformation. However, resilience has often provided cover for short-term measures aimed at preserving the position of particular actors and systems. Development cooperation needs to get beyond reconstruction and resilience approaches that often fail to foster the long-term stability they promise. By focussing on the social contract, development cooperation with conflict-affected countries can provide a crucial link between peacebuilding, reconstruction and longer-term socioeconomic and political development. It can thereby contribute not only to short-term, but also to long-term, sustainable stability. Using the social contract as an analytical lens can increase understanding not only of what donors should avoid doing, but also where they should concentrate their engagement during transitions from civil war. Practical examples from challenging contexts in the MENA region suggest that donors can make positive contributions in support of new social contracts when backing (a) stakeholder dialogues, (b) governance and reforms, and (c) socioeconomic inclusion. In Libya, the socioeconomic dialogue process has brought stakeholders together to outline a new economic vision for the country. The Municipal Development Programme in Palestine focusses on improving the accountability and delivery of local institutions. The Moroccan Economic, Social and Environmental Council provides an example of a process that engages previously marginalised groups. These programmes are all examples of targeted efforts to build cooperation among the groups that make up MENA societies. They aim to broaden decision-making processes, and to increase the impact of specific measures with the ultimate objective of improving state–society relations. They could be adapted for other fragile contexts, with external support. In backing more of these kinds of activities, donors could make stronger contributions to sustainable, long-term peace- and state-building processes in conflict-affected MENA countries.
- Topic:
- Development, Natural Resources, Conflict, Peace, and Social Contract
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Palestine, Algeria, North Africa, Lebanon, and Syria
10. Preparing for a Looming Water Crisis: Lessons Learned from COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa Countries
- Author:
- Jamal Saghir and Yasmina El Amine
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University
- Abstract:
- The challenge of water security is growing globally. Achieving and sustaining water security, in both developed and developing countries, is likely to increase in complexity and priority as climate change intensifies, but also as the demands of economic growth increase. For most MENA countries that were already facing water security and major social, health and economic challenges before COVID-19, this additional pressure is particularly excruciating. Like COVID-19 and climate change, water scarcity in MENA is a global problem that requires collective action. There is no more urgent time to address the MENA’s water crisis than now, when people are constantly being reminded to use water to combat the spread of the virus. The Arab world appears to have averted significant health impacts from COVID-19, possibly shielding to a certain extent its health sector, however other sectors are at risk of collapsing, as the region is on the brink of an even more devastating water crisis. Drawing on countries’ responses to the outbreak and on unique traits and issues typical to the region, this policy paper discusses COVID –19 and the MENA and explores lessons learnt from the pandemic, in light of the upcoming water crisis in the MENA. It examines the issues of inequality and regional cooperation. It argues that fostering innovation for resilience is crucial in the absence of strong institutional response or capacity of governments, while also tackling critical ways to address and prepare for increasing water scarcity in the region. Finally, the paper provides policy recommendations that represent fundamental requirements for sustainable water development in the MENA countries.
- Topic:
- Development, Water, Crisis Management, Sustainability, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa
11. Beyond Yemen's Militiadoms: Restarting from local agency
- Author:
- Eleanore Ardemagni
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- The crisis in Yemen epitomises the complexity of contemporary intra-state conflicts: rather than a simple, binary war, the situation is characterised by various layers of conflict with multiple state, hybrid, non-state actors and foreign state powers playing active roles. Analysts and policymakers need to be aware of this complexity in order to grasp the drivers and implications of this war, and identify possible avenues for conflict resolution. Yemen matters a lot for the strategic interests of the EU: its Western waters are the southern frontier of the Mediterranean Sea. But Yemen has also become an arena of strategic competition for the Gulf and Middle Eastern state powers, who have constructed or taken over control of ports, military bases and airports along its coasts and islands as a springboard for projection in the Western Indian Ocean. Finally, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), established in 2009 and based in Yemen, remains one of the most entrenched and resilient jihadi networks in terms of local ties and political adaptability. This Conflict Series Brief analyses the intertwined layers of conflict in Yemen and their implications for war resolution efforts. The local-foreign nexus between Yemini and external actors needs to be disentangled to separate domestic drivers and the regional and/or sectarian dimensions of the conflict. Competing ‘militiadoms’ are on the rise, thus transforming the traditional Yemeni pattern of hybrid security governance into a multiple security governance scenario. The Brief examines the Yemeni crisis in all its complexity, focusing on existing and emerging dynamics. Interference by foreign state powers is both a cause and a consequence of the protracted conflict, while the potential for peace must be sought at local level. This approach will help to identify strategies for mitigating and possibly resolving the crisis.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Development, Conflict, and Decentralization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
12. Israel, Annexation, and the EU’s Research and Development Program “Horizon”
- Author:
- Mitvim
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- The EU is examining how to respond to a possible Israeli annexation in the West Bank. One of the measures reportedly under consideration is to limit Israel’s participation in the EU’s “Horizon” research and development (R&D) program scheduled for renewal in 2021. This might be a significant blow to Israeli R&D, which has enjoyed substantial EU grants in recent years through the previous phase of the “Horizon” program. This paper provides background about the “Horizon” program and its importance for Israel.
- Topic:
- Development, European Union, Research, and Annexation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
13. War and pieces: Political divides in southern Yemen
- Author:
- Raiman Al-Hamdani and Helen Lackner
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Since the 2010s, a wide range of separatist movements have represented the main political demands in southern Yemen. These groups are motivated by their geographical and historical origins, backed by various foreign powers, and divided by their demands for independence or autonomy. The Southern Transitional Council, the most prominent separatist group, claims to represent the south as a whole but it has limited control over parts of western governorates. The 2019 clash between the council and the internationally recognised government poses the most serious threat to the anti-Houthi coalition since the start of the Yemen conflict. The implementation of the Riyadh Agreement is far behind schedule and it is unclear whether Saudi Arabia will be able to enforce the deal, given the UAE’s withdrawal from Yemen. The European Union should continue to support development and state-building in Yemen, increase its efforts to mediate between Yemenis, and develop institutional and democratic platforms on which southerners can achieve self-determination.
- Topic:
- Development, Conflict, Separatism, and Houthis
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
14. Water Security and Growth: The case of the Middle East and North Africa Countries
- Author:
- Jamal Saghir
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University
- Abstract:
- Today, the challenge of water security is global, and growing. Achieving and sustaining water security, in both developed and developing countries, is likely to increase in complexity and priority—not only as climate change intensifies, but also as the demands of economic growth increase. While most developed countries invested heavily in water security, often starting early on their path to growth, most of the world’s developing countries remain relatively water insecure. The dominant threats to water security vary geographically and over time. Relative risks to populations vary globally: South Asia has the largest global concentration of population at risk of all water-related hazards; the Middle East and North Africa (MNA)2 stands out as having the highest percentage of the population facing scarcity and the only region where risks are still growing; and Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest percentage of population without access to water and sanitation. What is clear is that water security is not a stagnant goal, it is a dynamic process affected by changing climate, political set up, growing economies, and resource degradation. Moreover, as social, cultural, political, economic priorities and values evolve, water security will evolve with them. This note argues that in the MNA countries, instead of water security becoming an impediment to growth and factor in conflicts, water for growth and water security can be a factor of prosperity and peace.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Water, and Economic Growth
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa
15. Restoring central bank capacity and stabilizing the rial
- Author:
- Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- As part of the “Rethinking Yemen’s Economy” initiative, more than 20 of the leading socioeconomic experts on Yemen converged for the second Development Champions Forum on January 14-16 in Amman, Jordan. Among the urgent topics of discussion was the deterioration of the value of the Yemeni rial (YR), the magnifying impact this is having on the humanitarian crisis, and the need to re-empower the Central Bank of Yemen (CBY) as the steward of the rial and the economy generally. This policy brief is an outcome of those discussions, and the recommendations it includes collectively underline the need for the CBY to function in a more coherent, assertive manner – whereby its various branches operate as a united entity that is able to draft and implement monetary policies for Yemen as a whole. This paper includes further input from the Development Champions following the announcement by Saudi Arabia on January 17 of a $2 billion deposit to the CBY. Restoring central bank capacity and stabilizing the rial - Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies https://sanaacenter.org/publications/main-publications/5360
- Topic:
- Development, Economy, Central Bank, and Currency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
16. Generating new employment opportunities in Yemen
- Author:
- Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Decades of political instability and cyclical armed conflict have curtailed Yemen’s economic growth, job creation and labor productivity. Before the current conflict, much of the country’s working population was engaged in unskilled labor, working in rural agriculture or informally employed in small businesses. More recently, the ongoing conflict has destroyed normal commerce and left millions of Yemenis without a means of supporting themselves or their families. Even those not directly affected by the fighting now face brutal economic hardship. The economic crisis has become the primary driver of what the United Nations has called the world’s largest humanitarian catastrophe. In the midst of this crisis, the need for job creation is paramount. As part of the “Rethinking Yemen’s Economy” initiative, 22 of Yemen’s leading socioeconomic experts convened in Amman, Jordan on July 14–16, 2018 for the third Development Champions Forum. Sharing a collective sense of urgency to address Yemen’s worsening economic and humanitarian crises, the Champions discussed job creation in Yemen and developed potential strategies to combat increasing levels of unemployment and economic hardship. This policy brief presents the outcome of their discussions. The Development Champions recommend that policy makers seek to create jobs immediately by investing in sectors that have historically been neglected in favor of oil and gas activities. This includes investing in agriculture, developing the fishing industry, expanding mining operations, and linking reconstruction efforts to the local construction sector. In the medium term, policy makers should look to new initiatives, such as constructing a free zone on the Yemen-Saudi border. By providing these livelihood opportunities in the immediate and medium term, policy makers will also help limit the number of Yemenis who feel forced to join an armed party to conflict because of economic necessity.
- Topic:
- Development, Employment, Economic Growth, Armed Conflict, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
17. Treading Water: The Worsening Water Crisis and the Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism
- Author:
- Simone Klawitter and Alison Martin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- In the wake of the devastating destruction in Gaza in 2014, the Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism (GRM) was established as a temporary measure to facilitate the entry of construction materials and a range of items classified and treated as ‘dual use’ by Israel. Two and a half years on, vital water sector recovery and development remains hampered and fully controlled by the Government of Israel, demonstrating the extent to which Israeli government policies continue to undermine humanitarian response, cause de-development and exacerbate the separation of the Gaza Strip from the rest of the Occupied Palestinian Territory and the world. This paper analyses the effectiveness of the GRM in improving access to water, health and sanitation services, assesses the roles and responsibilities of a range of actors and identifies urgent steps in relation to the GRM that should be taken to contribute to the development of a just, effective and sustainable water sector in Gaza.
- Topic:
- Development, Territorial Disputes, Water, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
18. The Significance of Erdoğan's Visit to East Africa
- Author:
- Michael Asiedu
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- On the 22nd of January, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan embarked on another tour of three East African countries, Tanzania, Mozambique and Madagascar. These visits bring his total trips to 10 in Sub Saharan Africa, the most by any Turkish president. Earlier in 2016, he visited Ghana, Guinea, Cote d’ivoire, Nigeria, Kenya, Uganda and Somalia. These trips to a much larger extent signify the increasing policy attention Turkey is giving Africa.
- Topic:
- Development, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Turkey, Middle East, Mozambique, Tanzania, Madagascar, and East Africa
19. Turkey as a Development Partner in Africa
- Author:
- Michael Asiedu
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- Irrespective of Turkey’s lack of colonial history in Africa, Turkey’s foreign policy has progressively evolved to include a key focus on Sub-Saharan Africa in terms of development and humanitarian assistance. As a new donor country in the development arena Turkey’s activities towards SubSaharan Africa has enjoyed significant boosts. This policy brief takes a snapshot of Turkey’s involvement on the continent in terms of political, economic and the development aid dispensations citing why the continent remains an attraction for many emerging donor countries. It gives options to further solidify Turkey’s relations whilst highlighting a key challenge that might hinder Turkey’s pace on the continent.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, and Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Turkey, and Middle East
20. Saudi Arabia: The New Power Structure
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- King Salman has confirmed his reputation as a religious conservative through the reappointment of traditionalist clerics However he has also made some effort to streamline the Saudi government Recent changes have given considerable power to two men from the next generation: King Salman's son and his nephew The result may be good for hard security measures, but less certain for the soft measures necessary for Saudi Arabia to weather the storm.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Economics, Islam, Political Economy, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
21. Cybersecurity and Stability in the Gulf
- Author:
- James Andrew Lewis
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The Gulf has become a flashpoint for cyber conflict. Cyberspace has become an arena for covert struggle, with the United States, Israel and other nations on one side, and Iran and Russia on the other. Iran has far outpaced the GCC states in developing its cyber capabilities, both for monitoring internal dissent and deploying hackers to disrupt or attack foreign targets. Several such attacks over the past two years were likely either directed or permitted by Iranian state authorities. Even if Iran holds back from offensive actions as nuclear talks progress, the growth in Iranian capabilities remains a potential security threat for other Gulf states. The GCC countries have begun to develop their defensive capabilities, but they will need to expand their defenses and collaborate more effectively to deter future threats.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Defense Policy, Development, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
22. Iran and the P5+1: Getting to "Yes"
- Publication Date:
- 08-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- That nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 (China, France, Russia, the UK, U.S. and Germany) were extended beyond the 20 July 2014 deadline was neither unexpected nor unwelcome. The parties ha d made enough headway to justify the extension, which was envisioned in the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) that was signed in November 2013 and came into force in January, but given the political and technical complexity, they remain far apart on fundamental issues. Unless they learn the lessons of the last six months and change their approach for the next four, they will lose the opportunity for a resolution not just by the new 24 November deadline but for the foreseeable future. Both sides need to retreat from maximalist positions, particularly on Iran's enrichment program. Tehran should postpone plans for industrial- scale enrichment and accept greater constraints on the number of its centrifuges in return for P5+1 flexibility on the qualitative growth of its enrichment capacity through research and development.
- Topic:
- Development, Diplomacy, Economics, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Iran, Middle East, and France
23. Extremism as Mainstream: Implications for Women, Development & Security in the MENA/Asia Region
- Author:
- International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
- Abstract:
- In 2013, ICAN, in partnership with the MIT Center for International Studies and the Association for Women’s Rights in Development (AWID), hosted a two-day roundtable to better understand rising religious extremism from a gendered and grounds-up perspective, highlighting the essential yet often overlooked implications for women and the efforts of civil society on the ground. The meeting included civil society practitioners, scholars and journalists with expertise from Canada, Pakistan, Malaysia, Egypt, Yemen, Tunisia, the United States, and Iran. The roundtable addressed a range of questions. The statements and perspectives included here reflect views shared during the roundtable, and related research and analysis by ICAN. While this brief cannot do justice to the depth and complexity of the discussions, it is intended as a catalyst to widen the space for discussion, research, policy and practice among international and national level scholars and practitioners.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Violent Extremism, and Women
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Asia, and North Africa
24. Achieving Development Success: Strategies and Lessons from the Developing World
- Author:
- Augustin K. Fosu
- Publication Date:
- 03-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- What can the less well-off developing countries learn from the “successes” of other developing countries? This Policy Brief highlights successful development strategies and lessons from in-depth case studies of select countries from the developing world. The coverage includes East Asia and the Pacific, the emerging Asian giants, sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Middle East and North Africa, along with respective regional syntheses. Although countries' experiences are not necessarily replicable, the recurrent themes across countries and regions provide the appropriate connectedness for a comprehensive global perspective on development strategies and lessons.
- Topic:
- Development, Emerging Markets, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Latin America
25. Saudi Aramco as a national development agent: recent shifts
- Author:
- Steffen Hertog
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- Saudi Arabia's national oil company, Saudi Aramco, has been a critical agent for the social, economic and infrastructural development of Saudi Arabia; its managerial capacities are unrivalled in the Kingdom – and, indeed, the Gulf region. After it played a rather limited role outside the hydrocarbons sector in the 1980s and 1990s, its range of tasks and ambitions has recently again expanded drastically into a number of new policy sectors, including heavy industry, renewable energy, educational reform, infrastructure-building and general industrial development. This presents both opportunities and risks for Aramco, which has started to operate far outside its traditional politically insulated "turf" of running the upstream oil and gas infrastructure in the Kingdom. It is now involved in activities that are more political and more closely scrutinised by the Saudi public, and will have to build up new institutional and political capacities to maintain its reputation for clean and efficient management.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, Oil, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Saudi Arabia
26. Understanding the Links Between Sexual and Reproductive Health Status and Poverty Reduction
- Author:
- Nata Duvvury and Philip Oxhorn
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University
- Abstract:
- The interrelationship between poverty and sexual and reproductive health status (SRHS) is widely noted in academic, policy and programmatic discourses, though none establishes causality. The primary emphasis in these discourses is that poor SRHS is an outcome of poverty, and thus can be addressed through poverty reduction programmes. The purpose of this brief is to understand what factors contribute to the interrelationship between SRHS and poverty, with a specific focus on understanding how SRHS impacts household poverty. Future studies may then focus specifically on these factors in order to address issues of causality. This brief is based on desk research involving two sources of data: 1) a review of global literature and 2) three country case studies. The global literature review examined literature documenting the nature, extent and strength of the interrelationship between poverty and SRHS. The literature search was conducted using keywords from different disciplinary perspectives demography, economics, development, women’s studies, sociology, human rights and public health. Key databases such as JSTOR, PubMed, MEDLINE and Elsevier Science Direct were consulted, as well as the specific library databases at National University of Ireland, Galway and McGill University. Researchers at McGill compiled an annotated bibliography of literature on India. The three country case studies were undertaken in Brazil, Ghana and Lebanon. Consultants in each country undertook an extensive search of academic, policy and programmatic literature including journal publications, research reports, policy briefs, and non-governmental organization (NGO) reports. The literature search in each country followed the same method as the global literature review, including identifying keywords from different disciplines and exploring different databases. In addition, the consultants searched grey literature through contacting various NGOs and research institutions. They also obtained statistical information from governmental and institutional databases. All country case studies explored three key questions: 1) Is there literature that demonstrates the impact of poor SRHS on poverty? 2) What factors have been highlighted in the literature as influencing the relationship between SRHS and poverty? 3) Are there trade-offs involved for women between education, fertility, status and work participation? and 4) Do programmes by civil society organizations, such as micro-credit or income-generating programmes, promote sexual and reproductive health?
- Topic:
- Development, Education, Poverty, Health Care Policy, and Reproductive Health
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Brazil, South America, Lebanon, and Ghana
27. 2011— A Testing Year for Turkish Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Özdem Sanberk
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Strategic Research Organization (USAK)
- Abstract:
- 2011 was undoubtedly a year that witnessed the beginning of grand transformations which will continue in the years ahead. The popular movements under the name of the Arab Spring started in Tunisia and spread quickly to the rest of the region, sparking the process of political transformation. In another part of the world, the economic crisis which began in Greece and then engulfed the whole eurozone took the European Union to a difficult test regarding its future. Both events, one lying to the south of Turkey and the other to its west, interact directly with our country and therefore its zone of interest. Ankara inevitably stands in the epicenter of these two transformations of which the effects will certainly continue for a long period. Consequently, rising as a stable focus of power with its growing economy and its expanding democracy, Turkey has tried to respond to historically important developments throughout the year. In light of these realities and developments, this study will focus on the performance of Turkish foreign policy with regard to global and regional transformations which took place during 2011.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democratization, Development, Diplomacy, and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia
28. Renewed Violence in Iraq
- Author:
- Douglas A. Ollivant
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Iraq remains a fragile state deeply traumatized and riven by thirty years of war, sanctions, occupation, and civil strife. Although there are numerous positive signs of progress in Iraq—violence has fallen to its lowest level since 2003, its economy is growing modestly, oil production recently surpassed that of Iran, and foreign investment is beginning to restore infrastructure decayed by years of war and sanctions—the risk of acute instability and renewed conflict remains. Already, in the wake of the U.S. military withdrawal in December 2011, Iraq has seen a fierce political struggle between Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and many of his rivals in the Sunni-dominated Iraqiya parliamentary coalition, plus increasing tension with at least some segments of the Kurdish minority. For the positive trends to continue, Iraq will need to contain various threats to internal stability and weather regional turmoil that could worsen significantly in the coming months. The United States has a significant stake in helping Iraq overcome these challenges; Iraq is a critical state within a critical region.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, Oil, Fragile/Failed State, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
29. On the Brink: Israeli settlements and their impact on Palestinians in the Jordan Valley
- Author:
- Lara El-Jazairi and Fionna Smyth
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- The Jordan Valley, located in the eastern part of the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT), makes up 30 per cent of the West Bank (see Map 1 on page 7). Requisitions and expropriations of Palestinian land by the Israeli authorities continue to destroy the livelihoods of Palestinians living in the area and, unless action is taken, there are strong indications that the situation will only get worse. The Israeli government recently announced proposals and policies for the expansion of settlements, which, if implemented, will further threaten the living conditions and human rights of Palestinian communities in the Jordan Valley, undermining efforts to bring peace and prosperity to the OPT and Israel.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Agriculture, Development, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia
30. What Can Arab Countries Learn From Post-communist Transition?
- Author:
- Marek Dabrowski
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
- Abstract:
- More than a year has passed since the beginning of the political uprising against the authoritarian regimes in the Arab world. But, as demonstrated by the recent dramatic developments in Syria, the process is far from over. Meanwhile nations which have already freed themselves from their authoritarian rulers (Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen), must decide where to go and how to manage their political and economic changes. To a lesser extent, a similar challenge is being faced by those constitutional monarchies (like Morocco or Jordan) which accelerated reforms in order to avoid political destabilization. Many politicians and experts, especially those from Central and Eastern Europe, suggest their Arab colleagues learn from the experience of the postcommunist transition of the early 1990s. However, while learning from others is always a useful exercise, the geopolitical and socio-economic context of the Arab revolution seems to be different, in many respects, from that of former Soviet bloc countries more than twenty years ago.
- Topic:
- Development, Authoritarianism, Arab Spring, and Post-Soviet Space
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Arab Countries
31. Lebanon: An Overview Context, Evolving Demographics for Women, Sexual and Reproductive Health, Poverty and Women, Gender and Rights
- Author:
- Jocelyn DeJong and Sonya Meyerson-Knox
- Publication Date:
- 01-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University
- Abstract:
- Lebanon, a small middle-income country located on the eastern Mediterranean, is typical of many developing nations as it is undergoing demographic and epidemiological transitions with limited resources at hand, and yet unique due to its diverse population and long history of conflict. The conditions of Lebanese women are also fairly unique: A gender analysis Lebanon’s development indicators reveals that Lebanese women experience relatively high levels of health and education, but are lacking a commensurate presence in the public sphere. According to a Lebanese NGO, a “key problem is that gains in health and education have not translated into women’s economic empowerment, advancement in politics, or full equality under the law” (CRTD-A, 2006, p. 8).
- Topic:
- Development, Gender Issues, Human Rights, Women, Sexual Health, and Reproductive Health
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
32. Beyond the Market: Can the AREDP transfor
- Author:
- Adam Pain and Paula Kantor
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
- Abstract:
- The recently-launched Afghanistan Rural Enterprise Development Program (AREDP) was set up as a mechanism to promote rural employment and reduce poverty through market-led growth. However, the limitations of both agriculture and opportunities away from the farm as a path to prosperity raise serious questions about the AREDP’s ability to achieve its goals. This paper paper draws on the results of AREU's Afghanistan Livelihood Trajectories study to examine these issues. The general decline in household livelihood security it observed suggests that the vision of an agriculturally-led economic transformation has borne little fruit over the course of the past decade. In the few households that prospered, livelihood improvement was often closely tied to engagement with urban economies and links to patronage networks. For the majority that did not, rural diversification was primarily a coping strategy to mitigate agricultural failure, rising food prices and income loss from the opium ban. While the AREDP may boost market-driven agriculture in already productive areas with good access to markets, it is unlikely to achieve the kind of generalised transformation of Afghanistan’s rural economy that it hopes for. If it is to achieve its stated goal of reducing poverty, the programme must do more to test its underlying assumptions regarding community solidarity and market competition, as well as taking greater account of local and regional contexts. It must understand that poverty alleviation is not simply a secondary product of market development, but an end in itself.
- Topic:
- Security, Agriculture, Development, Rural, and Community
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Middle East
33. Iraqi Voices Entering 2010
- Author:
- Rusty Barber and William B. Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Successful attacks on key government buildings underscore worries about whether Iraqis can manage their own security. They mask, however, something new in Iraqi society: an emerging vox populi that found potent expression in provincial elections last January, despite the odds. As national elections approach in March, political leaders are realizing that they ignore this growing voice at their peril. Aware that American attention is shifting towards other problems at home and abroad, Iraqis are nervously contemplating how much U.S. support they can expect going forward in their fragile experiment in democratic governance. The U.S. role in helping Iraqis prepare for national elections has been crucial and largely welcome—it should continue through the transition to a new government. Successful complete withdrawal by 2012 depends on an Iraqi government that is responsive to its people’s basic needs and capable of evolving peacefully via fair elections. Longer term, there are several critical areas on which a distracted and resource stretched America should focus. These include intensifying efforts to help Arabs and Kurds resolve disputes and forestall the need for an extended U.S. military presence in northern Iraq. Helping Iraq protect its borders – a vulnerability highlighted by Iran’s recent incursion—and nudging the Gulf Arab states to more actively engage Iraq as an emerging partner in regional security and economic structures will also be key to stability inside and beyond Iraq’s borders. If water is the “new oil” in terms of its resource value and potential to create conflict, that future is now playing out in Iraq. Shortages and poor quality are already causing serious health and economic problems, displacement and raising tensions with Iraq’s neighbors. The U.S. can help here on both the diplomatic and technical sides of the issue.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Development
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
34. From Gridlock to Compromise: How Three Laws Could Begin to Transform Iraqi Politics
- Author:
- Jason Gluck
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- On February 13, 2008 the Iraqi parliament simultaneously passed a law that sets forth the relationship between the central and provincial governments, an amnesty law and the 2008 national budget. The passage of these laws was the result of months of negotiation and last-minute substantive and procedural compromises that could portend a shift away from merely ethnic and sectarian-based alliances to inter-ethnic and sectarian issue-based politics. At the same time, Iraqi lawmakers may have discovered a strategy of simultaneous consideration of multiple matters that could increase the likelihood of consensus and resolution—a sharp contrast to what has until now been an issue-by-issue approach that has often resulted in impasses and political gridlock.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
35. Embedded Provincial Reconstruction Teams
- Author:
- Robert Perito
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- In January 2007, President Bush announced that the U.S. would double the number of Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) in Iraq as part of his plan for a "New Way Forward." PRTs are small, civilian-military units that assist provincial and local governments to govern more effectively and deliver essential services. These new PRTs would be embedded with Brigade (Army) and Regimental (Marine) Combat Teams (B/RCTs) participating in the "surge" of U.S. forces into Baghdad, Anbar and Erbil provinces. The new ePRTs would begin as four person interagency teams, but would expand to include civilian experts in a broad range of specialties. These new PRTs were staffed with Defense Department civilians and members of the National Guard and Army Reserve until funds became available to the State Department to hire civilian contractors. The process of deploying civilian experts is now underway, but the B/RCTs to which they are being assigned will return to the United States by August 2008.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Baghdad
36. Turkey: Energy Status and Expectations
- Author:
- Yusuf Yazar and Hasan Hüseyin Erkaya
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- Turkey has a growing economy demanding about 7% more energy each year. It's electric power generation capacity (approx. 41,000 MW) must be doubled in the next 10 years to meet the demand. Natural gas has a significant share in electricity production, which should be reduced. Domestic and renewable energies should be employed in meeting the demand. Turkey took major steps toward liberalization of its energy market. Private enterprises are expected to invest in the energy market in a timely manner. Turkey has an “energy corridor” position between the gas and oil producing countries and the importing countries. Turkey's efforts to actualize the use of renewable and domestic sources should be supported.
- Topic:
- Development and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
37. The Strategic Benefits of Turkey's Admission Into East Asian Summit
- Author:
- Kim Beng Phar
- Publication Date:
- 11-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- To fulfill Turkey's mission as a ʺcivilizational connectorʺ between Europe and Asia, Turkey must be a full member of the East Asian Summit. The path towards this goal, among others, requires Turkey to be a Dialogue Partner of ASEAN. Once ASEAN sponsors Turkey's membership in East Asian Summit, Turkey would then be strategically positioned to be a key member with some of the world's most monumental economic and political powers in its midst. Indeed, if Turkey is a member of East Asian Summit, ideally by 2010, Turkey would be in a better position to realize its strategic, civilizational, and historical depth.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and East Asia
38. Reconstructing Iraq
- Author:
- Jason Yossef Ben-Meir
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- The new strategy of the United States in Iraq does not include an extensive overhaul of reconstruction efforts at this critical time. Very little money is now being appropriated for reconstruction. As the Iraq Study Group Report explains, of the $21 billion to date that has been appropriated for the “Iraq Relief and Reconstruction Fund” (IRRF), $16 billion has been spent and the remaining funds have been committed. The administration requested $750 million for 2007, and President Bush's new proposal is to add $1.2 billion to that.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
39. Water, Conflict, and Cooperation: Lessons From the Nile River Basin
- Author:
- Patricia Kameri-Mbote
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- In 1979, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat said: “The only matter that could take Egypt to war again is water.” In 1988 then-Egyptian Foreign Minister Boutros Boutros-Ghali, who later became the United Nations' Secretary-General, predicted that the next war in the Middle East would be fought over the waters of the Nile, not politics. Rather than accept these frightening predictions, we must examine them within the context of the Nile River basin and the relationships forged among the states that share its waters.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, and Environment
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Egypt
40. The Future of Palestinian Politics
- Author:
- Mohammad Yaghi, Wafa' Abdel Rahman, and Owen Kirby
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Democratic development in the Palestinian Authority (PA) is at the top of the Bush administration's priorities. While the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) elections of January 2006 were democratic, democratic elections by themselves do not constitute a democratic system. The current situation in the West Bank and Gaza cannot be called democratic by international norms. Respect for the rule of law and human rights and observation of individual rights and freedoms do not currently prevail in the PA.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
41. The Role of Finance in Combating National Security Threats
- Author:
- Robert Kimmitt
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- What are the relative constraints of a multilateral approach versus a bilateral approach to the use of financial tools against illicit activity? Anytime we see a threat to the country through the financial system, we are going to take action immediately using the domestic authorities we have. We try to be careful, however, to make sure that those are carefully targeted to conduct and are not extra territorial. That provides a good basis for entering into discussion with friends and allies throughout the world, both on a bilateral basis with others and then on a multilateral basis.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
42. PolicyWatch #1241: Special Forum Report: The Future of Syria: Challenges and Prospects
- Author:
- Barry Rubin and Theodore Kattouf
- Publication Date:
- 06-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On May 30, 2007, Barry Rubin and Theodore Kattouf addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Professor Rubin, a visiting fellow at the Institute, is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA), and author of the just-released book The Truth about Syria (Palgrave). Mr. Kattouf, a former U.S. ambassador to Syria and the United Arab Emirates, is president and CEO of AMIDEAST, a nonprofit group dedicated to enhancing educational links between the United States and the Middle East. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, and Development
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Syria
43. Turkey's Economic Future and the AKP
- Author:
- Meral Varis Kiefer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On April 30, 2007, the Turkish stock market slumped and the value of the lira dropped following a massive demonstration in Istanbul against the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government, coupled with a statement by the military voicing support for secularism. Previously, the comparatively healthy Turkish economy had boosted the chances that the AKP, rooted in the country's Islamist movement, would achieve further electoral victories this year. On April 24, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan named Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul as his party's candidate for president -- a legislatively elected post. In the April 27 parliamentary session, however, the secular opposition boycotted the vote, and the AKP failed to muster the required two-thirds majority. The Turkish constitutional court subsequently annulled the vote, and the status of the presidential election is now uncertain. In the meantime, the parliament has moved legislative elections up from November to July 22.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
44. Iraqi Reconciliation: Prospects for Peace at Home and Progress with Neighbors
- Author:
- David Satterfield
- Publication Date:
- 03-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On March 27, 2007, Ambassador David Satterfield addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Ambassador Satterfield's public service career has included tours as ambassador to Lebanon as well as key Middle East affairs positions with both the State Department and the National Security Council. Formerly deputy chief of mission at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, he now coordinates Iraq policy at the State Department, serving as a senior advisor to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, and Lebanon
45. Assessing the New Palestinian Unity Government: A Step Forward or Back?
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 03-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On March 17, the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) approved the formation of a Hamas-Fatah national unity government by an 83–3 margin. This culminated a process that began in early February with the Mecca accord facilitated by Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah. Many governments have withheld comment since that accord. One reason for their relative silence is reluctance to criticize a project associated with King Abdullah, who is emerging as a leading force in the Arab world and a linchpin of U.S. efforts to isolate Iran. Another is bated hope that the new government guidelines will be a marked improvement over those of the current Hamas government. Since Hamas's victory in January 2006 parliamentary elections, the focus has been on three principles proposed by the Quartet (the United States, Russia, the European Union, and the UN): (1) recognition of Israel, (2) disavowal of violence, and (3) adherence to past written commitments.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia
46. Meeting with Iraq's Neighbors: A Confidence-Building Measure, or Much More?
- Author:
- David Pollock
- Publication Date:
- 02-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Does this week's surprise U.S. declaration of a new international conference on Iraq, scheduled for March 10, represent a major shift in U.S. policy or just a minor shuffle? Why is it happening now? And will it have any more of an impact than other recent international meetings on Iraq?
- Topic:
- Development and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
47. Next Steps in the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 02-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The Israeli-Palestinian political landscape has been rather bleak over the last several years. Between 2000-2004, the second intifada brought almost unremitting terror and violence. Despite Israel's pullout from Gaza in the summer of 2005, the parliamentary victory of the rejectionist Hamas party in January 2006 contributed to this downward trend.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
48. Are U.S. Military Academies Preparing Graduates for Today's Wars?
- Author:
- Andrew Exum
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- For the past five years, U.S. Army and Marine Corps officers have been operating in highly complex combat environments in both Afghanistan and Iraq. Uniformed decisionmakers realized early on that these wars required a wide array of skill sets and areas of expertise beyond those traditionally taught to junior officers. Army chief of staff Gen. Peter Schoomaker has stressed the need for a new kind of Army leader skilled in governance, statesmanship, and diplomacy and able to understand and work within different cultural contexts. The question, then, is to what extent the education given to future ground component officers at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and the U.S. Naval Academy at Annapolis is working to produce such leaders. Specifically, to what extent are the traditional engineering-based curricula at the nations service academies producing leaders with the requisite language and cultural skills necessary to be effective officers on the ground in Iraq and Afghanistan?
- Topic:
- Development, Education, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Middle East
49. Lebanon Goes to Paris III: High Stakes in France and Beirut
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On January 25, Lebanon will participate in Paris III, the third international donor conference for Lebanon convened by French president Jacques Chirac since February 2001. The top agenda items are grants and soft loans for Lebanon and the economic reform plan of Lebanese prime minister Fouad Siniora. For Siniora and his "March 14" ruling coalition, the success of the conference -- i.e., international commitments to provide billions to Lebanon -- is exceedingly important, as the government is coming under increasing pressure from the Hizballah-led opposition. Indeed, this week, the opposition upped the ante in its continuing effort to topple the Siniora government, closing key Lebanese arteries, including the highways into Beirut and the airport road. If Paris III is broadly perceived as "successful," it will strengthen Siniora and demonstrate that the March 14 coalition can govern and advance key Lebanese interests without Hizballah participation in government. Should international donors not prove particularly generous, the momentum will shift toward the opposition.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and France
50. Iran Feels the Heat: International Pressure Emboldens Tehran's Domestic Critics
- Author:
- Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As international pressure on the Iranian government toughens, the Iranian regime is facing more fragmentation at home. In an unprecedented action against a sitting president, 150 of the 290 members of the Iranian Majlis (parliament) signed a letter blaming President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad for raging inflation and high unemployment, and criticizing his travel to Latin America at a time when he has not sent the Majlis a draft budget for the fiscal year that starts March 21. Under Iranian law, this letter constitutes the first step required if the Majlis wants to remove the president from office.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Latin America
51. PolicyWatch #1319: Aid to the Palestinians: The Role of Oil-Rich Arab States
- Author:
- Simon Henderson, David Makovsky, and Michael Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On December 17, a donor conference will convene in Paris with the goal of bolstering Palestinian governance in the West Bank -- the first such meeting since the 2006 Stockholm conference. Current Middle East envoy Tony Blair has expressed optimism that the international community will support President Mahmoud Abbas and technocratic prime minister Salam Fayad. A sum of $5.6 billion is needed for the 2008-2010 period, and with the price of oil close to $100 per barrel, that target could be reached easily with contributions from the Gulf. But how much are the Gulf Arab states actually prepared to contribute to an issue that would seem to rank as one of their great political priorities?
- Topic:
- Development and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
52. PolicyWatch #1277: Better Late than Never: Keeping USAID Funds out of Terrorist Hands
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 08-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Foreign aid is an important and effective tool for buttressing allies, alleviating poverty and suffering, supporting key foreign policy objectives, and promoting the image and ideals of the United States abroad. Indeed, as its own website attests, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) "plays a vital role in promoting U.S. national security, foreign policy, and the War on Terrorism." Toward these goals -- and considering that several agency-approved aid recipients have been linked to terrorist groups in recent years -- USAID's proposed new partner-vetting system (PVS) is a welcome and overdue development.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Humanitarian Aid, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
53. Prospects for Mediation of the Lebanon Crisis
- Author:
- Patricia Karam and A. Heather Coyne
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The U.S. Institute of Peace was the venue for a roundtable session in mid-July to discuss the prospects for mediation of the current crisis in Lebanon. The discussants included former White House and State Department officials, as well as regional experts with experience in mediating previous conflicts between Israel and Lebanon. This USIPeace Briefing highlights the central points made during that discussion and does not represent the views of the Institute, which does not advocate specific policies.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Development
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Lebanon
54. Economic Empowerment of Women in Iraq: The Way Forward
- Author:
- Yll Bajraktari
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- A UN/World Bank survey conducted after the fall of the Saddam Hussein regime revealed that even though women represented about 55 percent of Iraq's population, they made up only 23 percent of the workforce. Although the international community and Iraqis have since devoted considerable attention to boosting the status of women in Iraq, most of these efforts have focused on the social and political empowerment of women. Full democratic consolidation in Iraq can only be achieved by guaranteeing, in addition, a leading economic role for women in Iraq.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Gender Issues
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
55. What Do Islamists Really Want?
- Author:
- Abdeslam Maghraoui
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Throughout the Muslim world, Islamist parties have emerged as major power brokers when allowed to compete in free elections. Yet their positions on many crucial governance issues remain unknown or ambiguous. Most debates on the potential to moderate and integrate Islamists in the democratic process have focused on Islam's compatibility with democracy or on debates over Islamists' normative commitment to democracy separately from the mechanics of achieving political power.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Government, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
56. Syria and Political Change II
- Author:
- Scott Lasensky
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- This is the second in a series of USIPeace Briefings written by Scott Lasensky and Mona Yacoubian of USIP's Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention. It is based on discussions at a recent seminar. The views expressed do not reflect those of USIP, which does not take policy positions. One year after the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and facing mounting international pressure, the Syrian regime is consolidating its hold on power and adopting a more defiant stance, both in the region and toward the West. On December 12, Lebanese journalist Gibran Tueni—who had been staunchly opposed to Syrian involvement in Lebanon—was killed by a car bomb in Beirut. The attack occurred amidst continued Syrian intimidation of key witnesses as well as an orchestrated Syrian campaign to discredit the UN's Hariri investigation. Then, in a late December interview on al-Arabiya, former Syrian Vice President Abdel Halim Khaddam accused the Syrian regime of directly threatening Hariri just before his death. Khaddam is now openly calling for regime change, even reaching out to exiled leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood. In February 2006, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice criticized the Syrian government for encouraging violence and inflaming popular anger over the Danish cartoon controversy.
- Topic:
- Development, Politics, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
57. Lebanon's Confessionalism: Problems and Prospects
- Author:
- Imad K. Harb
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Over the past year and a half, Lebanon has witnessed tremendous political upheaval. In September 2004, Parliament extended the term of the country's president, Emile Lahoud, for three years after heavy-handed Syrian interference. Attempts were made on the lives of several public figures; among those killed was former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. A popular uprising forced Syria to withdraw the troops it had deployed in Lebanon since 1976. New parliamentary elections were held in May and June, 2005, and resulted in a new majority coalition of reform-minded, albeit sectarian, leaders who promised an overhaul of Lebanese politics.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
58. Living on a Life Support Machine: The Challenge of Rebuilding Afghanistan
- Author:
- Peter J. Middlebrook and Sharon M. Miller
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- The forthcoming “London Conference” on Afghanistan (January 31-February 1, 2006), to be attended by President Hamid Karzai, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, and Paul Wolfowitz, head of the World Bank, brings together high ranking dignitaries from the government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the international development community to endorse a new multilateral agreement to be known as the “Afghanistan Compact,” the successor of the Bonn Agreement.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Middle East, and London
59. Urban Studies in Cairo, Egypt
- Author:
- Dominique Harre-Rogers
- Publication Date:
- 02-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- Greater Cairo Region's population of about 19 million places it among the twenty largest cities in the world. The making of the 'polynucleated' urban region was fast. Restricted up to mid-20th century to what is now the downtown area, the medieval core and the ancient village of Gizah, the city's total built area quadrupled between 1945 and 1982 (El-Kadi 1987). With 4% annual growth in the 1960s-1970s, the city incorporated old suburbs and satellite towns (Maadi, Helwan, Heliopolis), spilled across the Nile and expanded north and west into the desert and the agricultural lands of the Nile Delta valley, swallowing several villages in the process.2 In the mid-1980s, the mega-city entered a new phase and population growth slowed significantly, falling below Egypt's national rate of growth
- Topic:
- International Relations and Development
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, and Egypt
60. A Palestinian Grand Bargain: Abbas's Government, Hamas's Program
- Author:
- Ben Fishman and Mohammed Yagi
- Publication Date:
- 11-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Rumors of a newly formed Palestinian unity government have been ubiquitous in recent weeks, yet Hamas and Fatah appear to be closer than ever to reaching an agreement. Their unity talks survived even the tragic killing of twenty Palestinian civilians on November 8 in Beit Hanun, an incident that would ordinarily derail such negotiations. Both Hamas and Fatah understand the severity of the current political crisis and recognize they must move beyond this impasse to avoid further civil violence.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Palestine
61. From Beirut to Gaza: Israel's Neighbors in the Aftermath of War
- Author:
- Ehud Yaari
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The governments on both of our “hot” fronts, Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority, are on the verge of change, with practical, immediate implications for Israel—and unfortunately, not positive ones. Rather, the storm clouds continue to gather on the strategic horizon.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Government, and War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Gaza
62. The Damascus-Hizballah Axis: Bashar al-Asad's Vision of a New Middle East
- Author:
- Seth Wikas
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On August 15, Syrian president Bashar al-Asad gave a significant policy speech to the Syrian Journalists Union in which he expressed his support for Hizballah. More importantly, the address sought to redefine Syria's position in the Arab world. Building on Washington's talk of the birth of a new Middle East, Asad described his own vision for a new Middle East, one with an empowered Arab resistance, a weakened Israel, and a renewed regional unity against Western interests.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
63. Syria's Role in the War in Lebanon
- Author:
- David Schenker and Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Recent developments related to the war in Lebanon—a warning from Damascus that Israeli forces in Lebanon should keep away from the Syrian border, the placement of Syrian forces on a heightened state of alert, the explosion of a crude improvised explosive device (IED) on the Syrian side of the Golan, President Bashar al-Asad's bellicose August 1 Army Day speech, Syrian facilitation of Iranian efforts to resupply Hizballah, and Israeli attempts to interdict these supply lines through air strikes along the Lebanon-Syria border—have prompted concerns that the fighting in Lebanon could escalate to involve Syria. Warnings from Damascus that an international stabilization force for Lebanon would be seen as an army of occupation, and therefore a legitimate target of resistance, have likewise raised the possibility that Syria might sponsor or support attacks on such a force, as it sponsored attacks against the Multi-National Force (MNF) in Beirut in 19821984.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria
64. Hizballah Opens a Second Front
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The capture yesterday of two Israeli soldiers (eight more were killed) in a crossborder raid by the Lebanese group Hizballah, as Israeli forces in Gaza continued to search for an Israeli soldier kidnapped last week by Hamas and to clear Qassam rocket launch sites, marked the opening of a second front in the war against Israel being waged by these two Islamist terrorist groups and their state sponsors, Syria and Iran. These developments highlight the potential for further escalation and illustrate the rising dangers posed by the emergence of an anti-Israel and anti-American military axis comprised of Hamas, Hizballah, Syria, and Iran.
- Topic:
- Development, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- America, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Gaza, and Syria
65. Kuwait's Elections Exacerbate Differences between Ruler and Parliament
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The June 29 parliamentary elections in Kuwait achieved international media coverage because women were allowed to stand for office and vote for the first time in the sheikhdom. Less well reported were the local political divisions that had brought about elections a year earlier than expected. The results of the balloting—in which, incidentally, none of the women candidates won office—worsened the divisions between the Kuwaiti government and the National Assembly and could lead to greater public disagreement about the character of the country's alliance with the United States.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Kuwait
66. One Year after the Cedar Revolution: The Potential for Sunni-Shiite Conflict in Lebanon
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Acting Lebanese interior minister Ahmad Fatfat arrived in Washington June 20 for his first official visit in his new capacity. The U.S. trip comes one month after a radical Sunni Islamist organization was legalized in Lebanon, and just weeks after thousands of Shiite Hizballah supporters rioted in Beirut after the broadcast on LBC television of a comedy skit satirizing Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah. These developments highlight growing tensions between Sunnis and Shiites in Lebanon. Unchecked, this dynamic could lead to a resumption of the type of conflict that has long plagued Lebanon and threaten the gains of the Cedar Revolution.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Development, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, Middle East, and Lebanon
67. Rebuilding Iraq: The Way Ahead
- Author:
- William McCoy and James Jeffrey
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On May 18, 2006, Ambassador James Jeffrey and Maj. Gen. William McCoy addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Ambassador Jeffrey is senior advisor to the secretary of state and coordinator for Iraq policy at the U.S. Department of State. He previously served as deputy chief of mission and charge d'affairs in Baghdad, ambassador to Albania, and deputy chief of mission in Turkey and Kuwait. General McCoy is commander of the Gulf Region Division, Army Corp of Engineers, in Baghdad, where he oversees most of the U.S. government's major infrastructure projects in Iraq. Previously, he served as assistant commandant of the U.S. Army Engineer School, held command and staff positions in various combat engineer units, and served in Saudi Arabia. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia
68. Israel Goes to the Polls
- Author:
- Yaaron Deckel
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On March 16, 2006, Yaron Deckel and David Makovsky addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Deckel is a leading political analyst in Israel and Washington correspondent for Israel Television and Israel Radio. Mr. Makovsky is a senior fellow and director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process at The Washington Institute. Mr. Makovsky's remarks were released in PolicyWatch no. 1086, “The Shape of Israel's Election Race.” The following is a rapporteur's summary of Mr. Deckel's remarks. In several recent interviews with the press, Israeli acting prime minister Ehud Olmert articulated a specific agenda for disengagement and the evacuation of thousands of additional settlers from the West Bank, distinguishing his campaign from the vague promises that have characterized past Israeli elections. Ariel Sharon campaigned in 2003 on eventual “deep and painful” future concessions, but did not specifically address disengagement until after the elections. It is therefore important to evaluate the prospect that Kadima will head the next government and what policies it would likely follow if in power.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, and Israel
69. Kuwait's Parliament Decides Who Rules
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- At a time when attention is focused on the problems democracy has brought in one part of the Middle East, such as the Palestinian territories, it has been easy to overlook how democratic processes were key to resolving a crisis in another Middle Eastern country: Kuwait. The January 15 death of Kuwait's emir, or ruler, Sheikh Jaber brought to power the physically and mentally incapacitated Sheikh Saad al-Abdullah al-Sabah. But the crisis engendered by his ill health and his refusal to abdicate was resolved quickly through democratic processes. On January 24, the parliament of the oil-rich Persian Gulf state of Kuwait exercised a previously unused constitutional power and voted to oust Sheikh Saad. The new emir, Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmed al-Sabah, is expected to be confirmed by parliament on January 29, and is now under pressure from some members of parliament to choose a prime minister from outside the ranks of the ruling al-Sabah family.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Kuwait
70. America and the Middle East, circa 2006
- Author:
- James F. Hoge Jr. and Stuart Rothenberg
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Barring any unforeseen developments in the region, there will be very little change in U.S. policy toward the Middle East this year. Terrorism will remain the top priority overall. In addition, the Bush administration will continue to maintain the priorities that have defined American approaches over recent decades, such as preserving energy supplies, containing strife, ensuring Israel's existence, and working with allies such as Turkey. Further, the White House will reiterate its condemnations of the Syrian regime—though it will refrain from more active policies of regime change for fear that a new government would be even worse. However, the issues of democratization, Iraqi development, the Iranian nuclear program, and the Israeli-Palestinian issue will also be high on the agenda in 2006.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Development
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Washington, and Middle East
71. How to Judge the Palestinian Elections
- Author:
- Ben Fishman and Mohammed Yaghi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On Wednesday, January 25, Palestinian voters will elect a new Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) for the first time since the initial PLC was elected ten years ago. The participation of Hamas in the elections marks a turning point in Palestinian politics; the group boycotted the original 1996 ballots as part of its rejection of the Oslo process. Ensuring a smooth transition from elections to the seating of the new PLC will require passing several hurdles, not the least of which is protecting balloting and vote-counting from violent disruptions. Assuming election day proceeds without incident—no small matter given the level of domestic lawlessness over the last several weeks—Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas will then face the challenge of selecting a prime minister to form the next government. What remains unknown is precisely how well Hamas will finish in relation to Abbas' own Fatah party, and whether a tight race will lead Abbas to include Hamas as an active partner in the next Palestinian government—or, indeed, whether a poor Fatah showing might prompt Abbas to resign.
- Topic:
- Development, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Palestine
72. Fatah's Prospects in the Legislative Elections
- Author:
- Ben Fishman and Mohammed Yaghi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- With just over two weeks left before January 25 Palestinian legislative elections, the mainstream Fatah movement remains bitterly divided, with some of its key factions advocating the postponement of elections and others demanding that voting be held as scheduled. Having publicly aired its internal problems over the last weeks rather than developing a clear campaign message, Fatah is unlikely to win more than 40 percent of the seats in the next Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC). Even though the question of Israel allowing voting in East Jerusalem now seems resolved, it remains to be seen whether elections will take place. If they do proceed, Fatah is certain to lose its monopoly on the Palestinian Authority and will require a coalition to form the next government.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem
73. Syria and Political Change
- Author:
- Mona Yacoubian and Scott Lasensky
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- This USIPeace Briefing , written by Scott Lasensky and Mona Yacoubian of the Institute's Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention, is based on discussions at a recent seminar. The views expressed do not reflect those of the Institute, which does not take policy positions. Syria is facing unprecedented pressure from the international community on issues ranging from Syrian meddling in Lebanon to its support for terrorist groups. The United Nations investigation into the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri will release its second report in mid- December 2005. The current crisis has increased speculation about prospects for political change in Syria. The opacity of Syrian politics means there are more questions than answers. Nonetheless, a number of key indicators suggest a changing political environment, in a country where political development has essentially been frozen for thirty-five years.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
74. Iraq before the Election: Constructing a National Narrative
- Author:
- Courtney Rusin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Iraq will elect a new parliament on December 15th. The new government—whatever its composition—will then be in a race to build a democratic order before the insurgency creates enough chaos to break it down. Whether or not the government succeeds depends on how political events of the past two years have set the stage for the December elections—and on the prospects of creating a national narrative that encompasses all of Iraq's main political and ethno-sectarian groups.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
75. Post-Election Iraq: Facing the Constitutional Challenge
- Author:
- Nathan J. Brown
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Iraq's newly elected National Assembly (NA) will soon take up its major task—although hardly its only one—of drafting a permanent constitution. The task is to be completed in time to submit the draft constitution to a national plebiscite by October 15, 2005.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
76. A Better Way to Support Middle East Reform
- Author:
- Thomas Carothers
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI), an important component of the Bush administration's policy of promoting Middle East reform, is falling short. MEPI should be relaunched as a private foundation funded by the government, akin to the Asia Foundation or the Eurasia Foundation. Such a relaunch would permit MEPI to develop greater expertise in the region, use more flexible, effective aid methods, and gain some independence from other U.S. programs and policies that serve conflicting ends. The restructuring of MEPI should be part of a broader set of measures to establish a more visible, coherent institutional policy structure to pursue the critical goal of fundamental political and economic change in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia, Middle East, and Asia
77. Previewing Jordan's National Agenda: Strategies for Reform
- Author:
- Samer Abu Libdah
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- King Abdullah II's latest domestic reform initiative for Jordan — the National Agenda Committee — will soon release a series of major political recommendations. These proposals will provide the Jordanian government with a detailed framework to guide the reform process in coming years.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Jordan
78. Entering the 'Tipping Period' in Iraq
- Author:
- Jeffrey White
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Though armed insurgencies can last for a decade or more, they also can have decisive periods in which their paths are set, even if those paths do not become apparent for some time. Iraq appears to be entering just such a period of decision.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
79. Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq: A Progress Report
- Author:
- Jeffrey White, Jack Keane, and Francis West
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Daily images of carnage from Iraq and uncertainty over how to measure coalition progress continue to stoke debate in the United States. How does one assess the status of the insurgency? How are the efforts to recruit and train Iraq's security forces proceeding? What are America's options in Iraq?
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Development
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, Vietnam, and Syria
80. The New Lebanon: Democratic Reform and State Sponsorship
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On July 19, Lebanon's incoming prime minister, Fuad Siniora, announced the formation of a new Lebanese cabinet, a move praised in Washington as another step toward democratic reform. At the same time, the State Department warned that it would not be able to maintain contact with newly appointed Minister of Energy and Water Muhammad Fneish, who is a member of Hizballah. Beyond the fact that U.S. officials are prohibited by law from dealing with members of officially designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations like Hizballah, Fneish's appointment raises the larger question of how to deal with the extensive presence of active terrorist groups in a Lebanon no longer dominated by Syria.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
81. Lessons from the Fight against Terrorism
- Author:
- Dennis Ross, Moshe Yaalon, and Avi Dichter
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On December 15, 2005, Lt. Gen. (ret.) Moshe Yaalon, Avi Dichter, and Ambassador Dennis Ross addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. General Yaalon, a distinguished military fellow at the Institute, is the former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff. Mr. Dichter, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution's Saban Center for Middle East Policy, is the former head of the Israeli Security Agency (Shin Bet). Ambassador Ross, the Institute's counselor and Ziegler distinguished fellow, is a former U.S. Middle East peace envoy and author of The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace (2004). The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
82. The Consequences of Fatah's Chaotic Primaries
- Author:
- Ben Fishman and Mohammed Yaghi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- After a relatively calm first round of Fatah primaries in five of the West Bank's eleven electoral districts, a second round of primaries in five additional districts—four in the West Bank and one in Gaza—held between November 28 and December 3 have caused increased tensions within the movement. Where the victories by the younger generation of Fatah leaders in the primaries could have represented a watershed moment in Fatah's evolution, they have been marred by a haphazard system of voting and numerous accusations of fraud. Moreover, repeated incidents of violence at polling stations demonstrate Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas's difficulty in enforcing his principle of One Authority, One Gun even within his own movement. Rather than unifying Fatah, the primaries have highlighted the party's disorganization and divisions. The old guard represented by Fatah's Central Committee, which dominates a committee of the wise tasked to determine Fatah's final electoral lists, will now have greater leverage in that process to place its own members high on Fatah's national list of candidates in Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) elections scheduled for January 2006.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
83. Fatah Primary Results: Lessons from the First Round
- Author:
- Ben Fishman and Mohammed Yaghi
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In preparation for January elections to the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC), Fatah, the mainstream Palestinian faction that dominates the current council, held its first ever primaries on November 25.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Palestine
84. Campaign Season Begins in Israel (Part II): Labor's New Leader, Amir Peretz
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Amir Peretz's decision to pull the Labor Party he leads out of its national unity government with Prime Minister Ariel Sharon set Israel's new political calendar and precipitated Sharon's decision to bolt the Likud Party and consent to elections in March 2006. Peretz is a veteran labor union leader who won the leadership of the Labor Party on November 10, defeating Shimon Peres, a dominant force in the party since 1974.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
85. Campaign Season Begins in Israel (Part I): Ariel Sharon Bolts from Likud
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On Monday, November 21, Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon announced that he is bolting the Likud Party and forming a new National Responsibility Party. The Knesset took a preliminary vote to dissolve itself. While wrangling may continue, a final date will soon be set for elections in March 2006. Sharon remains prime minister during the interregnum.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
86. Assessing Palestinian Security Reform
- Author:
- Mohammed Yaghi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Palestinian security reform was high on the agenda during Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's recent visit to Ramallah. A spike in armed clashes, crime, and demonstrations in the territories has highlighted the issue of law and order among the Palestinian people, who are increasingly concerned about their daily security. On June 14, Palestinian Authority (PA) prime minister Ahmed Qurei threatened to suspend the work of the cabinet "if the security forces fail to put an end to the trespasses and anarchy."
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Palestine
87. Building a democratic Palestine: an Australian contribution to legal and institutional development in the Palestinian territories
- Author:
- Anthony Bubalo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The current fragile ceasefire between Palestinian militants and Israel has raised hopes of an end to four years of violence. To sustain that ceasefire both Israel and the Palestinian Authority must meet their respective commitments under the "Road Map for Middle bast Peace". For the PA this means preventing terrorist attacks against Israel and undertaking political, legal and security reforms. These reforms are also critical to meeting the Palestinian public's own demands for an end to lawlessness and corruption. Given Australia's expertise in legal and institutional development, the Australian government's commitment to promoting democracy and peace in the Middle bast and its sound relationship with both the PA and the government of Israel, Australia should lend what support it can to the Palestinian effort to establish strong foundations for a stable, prosperous and democratic Palestinian state.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Australia
88. Beyond Arafat
- Author:
- Anthony Bubalo
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Arafat may have suffered a lingering physical demise, but politically he has long been in decline. He lost much of his international credibility over his unwillingness to rein in Palestinian terrorism against Israel, and domestically his authority had gradually been eroded. While lacking an anointed heir, a succession plan is more or less in place. Political infighting is a possibility, though a desire for unity will probably prevail in the short term. But Arafat's successors will struggle to end the chaos and lawlessness into which the West Bank and the Gaza Strip have descended. Over the longer term Arafat's passing will remove the main obstacle to internal Palestinian reform. It has the potential to re-invigorate the peace process although it will not solve the fundamentals of the current impasse. It will also complicate Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plans for a unilateral withdrawal from Gaza and parts of the West Bank, even if his instinct will be to press ahead.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
89. Islam, Globalization, and Economic Performance in the Middle East
- Author:
- Marcus Noland and Howard Pack
- Publication Date:
- 06-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The Middle East is a demographic time bomb. According to the United Nations Development Program's (UNDP) Arab Human Development Report 2002, the population of the Arab region is expected to increase by around 25 percent between 2000 and 2010 and by 50 to 60 percent by 2020—or by perhaps 150 million people, a figure equivalent to more than two Egypts. Even under the UNDP's more conservative scenario, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates will be the only Arab countries in 2020 with median ages above 30.
- Topic:
- Development, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Kuwait, Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates
90. At a Crossroads in Afghanistan: Should the United States Be Engaged in Nation Building?
- Author:
- Subodh Atal
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Despite progress in the return of refugees and the prevention of humanitarian disasters, stability in Afghanistan is threatened by ethnic tension, feuding warlords, and violence perpetrated by regrouping elements of the Taliban and their allies. The United States is being asked to increase its level of commitment to rebuilding Afghanistan as a means of stabilizing the country, even as American troops battle the resurgent Islamic extremists who operate along the Afghan-Pakistan border.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, America, Middle East, Taliban, and Arabia
91. Monetary Options for Postwar Iraq
- Author:
- Steve H. Hanke and Matt Sekerke
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Following a swift military campaign to remove the Saddam Hussein government in Iraq, it has become clear that preparations for the postwar period have been inadequate and that the occupying forces lack a workable exit strategy. Specifically, the Coalition Provisional Authority has failed to anticipate the challenges that face the postwar Iraqi economy, including the introduction of sound money to facilitate exchange.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
92. Middle East—Peace Process Unfrozen
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Last week's signing of an Israeli–Palestinian agreement at Sharm al-Sheikh represents an important development in the search for a lasting settlement in the Middle East. The deal illustrates that it is possible to reach an agreement from which all parties will gain, while also exposing enduring problems. The progress made at Sharm al-Sheikh represents, as Nabil Shaath of the Palestinian authority described, an 'unfreezing' of the peace process. Whether the whole process can be infused with greater warmth depends firstly on US efforts to impel the Syrian–Israeli peace negotiations; secondly, it relies on the ability of the regional leaders to make the compromises necessary to reach a peace that all can present as a victory to their domestic constituencies.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria