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Begin New Search Political Geography Latin America Content Type Policy Brief Publication Year within 5 Years

11. The shift from party to personality politics is harming Latin American democracies

Author:
Christine Zaino and Sofia Herrera
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Across Latin America and the Caribbean, personality-driven political movements and political outsiders are increasingly prevalent, often at the expense of party-based politics. A theme of recent elections in the region has been a widespread embrace of political figures and movements vowing to upend the status quo. From Ecuador to Argentina to Guatemala, political outsiders have unseated the establishment. Meanwhile, recently formed, ideologically vague political movements in Mexico and El Salvador overtook the traditional parties that they broke away from to win landslide elections. With few exceptions, the region has failed to develop competitive, institutionalized, and programmatic parties. This breakdown in party systems and proliferation of personality-driven movements has not delivered better results. Improving institutionalized competition among programmatic, ideologically distinct, and identifiable parties would bolster Latin American democracy, delivering citizens freedom and prosperity. Within the past decade, several countries with once seemingly institutionalized party systems, such as El Salvador and Mexico, collapsed as parties lost their grip on power to personality-driven figures and movements. Others, like Ecuador and Guatemala, have systems that appear to provide a wide variety of options to citizens through a great proliferation of parties. These systems are unpredictable to citizens, and parties are unable to develop the structure, ideology, and institutionality necessary to deliver solutions to citizen’s needs. This piece examines how political parties across four Latin American countries in two types of systems have failed to serve as effective vehicles for delivering democracy, and what must change for parties in the region to succeed. We examine the breakdown of the formerly institutionalized party systems in Mexico and El Salvador, and the persistently weak parties in Guatemala and Ecuador. Each country’s experience illustrates how a lack of programmatic parties has contributed to poor governance, which fails to adequately deliver essential services to citizens, potentially undermining democracy and the freedom it should deliver. For each case, we reference data from the Atlantic Council Freedom and Prosperity Indexes and other sources to illustrate the critical role of parties in advancing democracy.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, Elections, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

12. Is the European Union Deforestation Regulation WTO-Proof?

Author:
Bruno Capuzzi
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
The European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is set to take effect on 30th December 2024. While it aligns with EU’s climate goals under the European Green Deal, it has sparked concerns with EU partners regarding its compatibility with World Trade Organization (WTO) principles. Internally, some member-States and productive sectors fear that the lack of clarity in its rules could disrupt European supply chains. Products like coffee, chocolate, and leather are some examples where costs and price are expected to rise due to compliance requirements, documentation, and shipment segregation. Critics argue that the EUDR’s unilateral imposition of EU standards on third countries could be viewed as extraterritorial and more restrictive than necessary towards its objectives. This paper analyses lessons from WTO reports on US Shrimp/Turtle and US Tuna/Dolphin, which are relevant to discussions on non-product-related processes and production methods (PPMs). Key findings suggest that the EUDR could be justified under GATT exceptions clause (Article XX). However, for this to be successful, the Policy Brief proposes more flexibility in considering local realities of exporting countries. This would include shifting the EUDR approach to cooperating towards an outcome-based equivalence systems instead of rigid procedural requirements.
Topic:
Agriculture, European Union, Trade, WTO, Deforestation, and Mercosur
Political Geography:
Europe and Latin America

13. A post-Western global order in the making? Foreign policy goals of India, Turkey, Brazil and South Africa

Author:
Sinikukka Saari, Toni Alaranta, Bart Gaens, Katariina Mustasilta, and Lauri Tahtinen
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
India, Turkey, Brazil and South Africa are striving for a more multipolar, post-Western world order in which they would not be seen merely as auxiliary powers to the bigger players, but as independent great powers. For them, a key foreign policy goal is to transform global governance institutions. They all call for a permanent seat for their country on the UN Security Council. To achieve that, the states need backing from more than the Western states – and this logically strengthens the multi-aligned logic of their foreign policies. India, Turkey, Brazil and South Africa see Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine and the Western countermeasures from their own perspective. They describe Russia’s invasion as a violation of international law, but see the war primarily as a Western concern, not theirs. Although these states are critical towards the West, they are not anti-Western and they all value multilateral institutions; their foreign policy goals and features offer opportunities for the EU to engage with them, but that needs to happen on a more equal footing than what has traditionally been the case.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, UN Security Council, Multipolarity, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Africa, Turkey, India, Asia, Brazil, and Latin America

14. Mexico’s domestic decay: Implications for the United States and Europe

Author:
Lauri Tahtinen
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has challenged Mexico’s democratic institutions, including the electoral commission INE, and relies on the military to run sectors of the economy and to provide internal security. Recognizing the continuing strategic importance of its southern neighbor, the United States is attempting to “friend-shore” American industry to Mexico despite trade disputes. Mexico’s economic convergence with the US is giving way to ideological divergence. In the past year, Mexico has called NATO’s stance on Ukraine “immoral” and openly aligned with the leftist, anti-US dictators of Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. Mexico’s internal development and shifting external stance could spark a return to a United States focused on the protection of its 19th-century borders instead of its 20th-century global footprint. European attention to the future of Mexico can help diversify the country’s trade and other partnerships, as well as shine a light on its democratic decay.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Democracy, Europe, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Latin America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

15. Monetary policy in Latin America: The easing cycle has begun

Author:
Alejandro Werner
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Latin America’s central banks acted promptly and decisively to contain the medium-term consequences of the global inflation shock. Since then, however, headline and core inflation have come down within the region, real growth has slowed, and the US Federal Reserve appears to have settled on a (however brief) pause of its own tightening cycle. Werner says the time has come for a gradual return to looser financial conditions in Latin America. Brazil, Chile, and Peru have already started the process of cutting rates, and there seems to be significant space to continue; Mexico should follow, with Colombia waiting for more clear signals.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Inflation, Interest Rates, and Central Bank
Political Geography:
Latin America

16. A shared EU-US economic agenda for the world: Engagement as an imperative

Author:
Lauri Tähtinen
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
It is time for the European Union and the United States to build a shared, positive economic agenda towards third countries. Such an agenda would build upon the bilateral relationship but not focus on it. It would still be shared, even if the parties may have distinct reasons for supporting different aspects of it. The first elements of a shared economic agenda are evident in the EU-US Trade and Technology Council projects for Jamaica and Kenya. However, the political window for further alignment between the US and the EU, as well as for European trade deals, may be closing in 2024. Future initiatives should take into account major economies such as Brazil, Mexico, and Indonesia. The entry into force of the EU-Mercosur agreement should be a high-level priority for both Washington and Brussels. The current state of the EU-US relationship is characterized by a divergence in technology, industrial policy, and environmental policy. To move onto a path of convergence, Washington must reassess its exaggerated fears regarding the regulatory power of the EU, and use the spread of European standards as a means towards shared ends.
Topic:
Environment, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Latin America, and United States of America

17. The Resilience and Sustainability Trust: Early Learning and Challenges from Costa Rica and Rwanda

Author:
Andrew Wainer
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
In 2022, as part of the IMF’s recent efforts to re-channel Special Drawing Rights, it created the Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST), facilitating the transfer of concessional finance from high- to lower-income countries for climate resilience and pandemic preparedness. It is the first new such facility following the polycrises of the early 2020s. Demand for the RST is strong and learning from its pilots can inform how future RST financing can be used most effectively. This research provides case studies of two RST pilots: Costa Rica and Rwanda. Lessons from the pilots are not only relevant for future RST recipients. The RST is operational, and therefore, uniquely worthy of analysis in terms of how additional financing—above and beyond the RST—can be effectively integrated. Our analysis finds that the RST is becoming the IMF’s de facto climate finance facility; is government-driven; is being awarded to countries with strong governance and climate credentials; and that authorities are banking on using the RST to attract additional climate finance. At the same time, the RST faces the challenges of being too small to confront climate resilience; has questionable priorities in terms of supporting climate over poverty reduction in low-income countries; is almost tripling the number of IMF program conditions some countries are facing; and is escalating IMF policy influence over governments in an area where the IMF has limited experiences.
Topic:
International Monetary Fund, Finance, Sustainability, Resilience, COVID-19, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:
Africa, Latin America, Rwanda, and Costa Rica

18. Forest-Based Carbon Markets: Pitfalls and Opportunities

Author:
Julián Cárdenas and Juan Jose Guzman Ayala
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Forest-based carbon markets could become an important source of income for countries in Africa, Latin America and Asia-Pacific. Estimates indicate that under a high carbon prices scenario, the value of the forest-based carbon credit market could increase from US$1.3 billion in 2021 to US$25 billion per year by 2030. Apart from the climate and monetary benefits, forest based carbon markets also have pitfalls that must be avoided. Without the right institutions in place, at the national and local level, forest projects can generate negative externalities, such as population displacement, increases in food prices, and biodiversity degradation. The value chain in carbon credits involves a number of high value-added upstream and downstream activities that tend to take place outside the countries where the projects are located. Industrial policies are required for host countries to receive a higher share of the revenue stream, including in areas such as structuring, monitoring, verification, and surveillance. Countries need to promote actions in labor training, research and development, and access to long-term capital. The paper proposes the creation National Carbon Federations as institutions to resolve several market failures, while preventing conflict, ensuring adequate savings of the additional income, and strengthen democratic governance. These organizations can also provide key public goods, so that local communities benefit from the development of carbon credits from tropical forests.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Climate Finance, Forests, and Carbon Markets
Political Geography:
Latin America

19. The Impact of Populist Executive on the Inflow of Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America

Author:
Seungho Lee
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Populist forces have been resilient in Latin America and continue to cause instability and uncertainty across the region. Populist figures in the region first rose to prominence during the period of import substitution industrialization in the 1930s, capitalizing on the growing demands for mass politics and better social benefits from the rapidly expanding urban working class. Populism, which had been rampant in Latin America for more than 30 years since then, seemed to fade into obscurity with military regimes which have dominated regional politics in the 1960s and 1970s. However, after a series of democratic transitions, Latin American democracies witnessed yet another wave of populism. A notable number of candidates with a populist discourse have achieved victories in presidential elections in the 1980s and 1990s. With the wave of democratization and the accumulation of public dissatisfaction due to a series of economic crises, some so-called neopopulists took power in a number of Latin American countries. They attracted voters by combining neoliberal economic policies with the typical “us-versus-them” discourse, demonstrating that any economic ideology can be linked to populist ideas. The new millennium witnessed another tide of populist presidents across the region. While a rapid transition to neoliberal policies led to various socioeconomic problems, traditional parties and politicians could not respond effectively to the emerging problems. This time around, left-wing populist figures dominated the region’s political landscapes, combining populist ideas with so-called 21st-century socialism. While the era of radical left-wing populists came to an end, new breeds of populists appeared one after another and were elected to office in the 2010s. Not many expect that populist executives will cease to exist across the region in the near future. Social and economic inequality is worsening in the aftermath of COVID-19, and the public distrust of established party politics and existing democratic institutions is growing more than ever. All in all, there is fertile ground for populist forces to spread even more, who claim that they are the only ones who can eliminate the "incompetent and corrupt" establishment and truly represent the "virtuous" people. Against this backdrop, there is a growing need to improve our understanding of the characteristics of populist governments that have repeatedly emerged in the region. Among many channels through which populist rule influences Latin American countries, Lee et al. (2022) dedicate one of their chapters to analyzing the impact of populist rule on the inflow of foreign direct investment, a variable of much importance in Latin American economies.
Topic:
Foreign Direct Investment, Populism, and Instability
Political Geography:
Latin America

20. The Impacts of the Russo-Ukranian War on Latin America in the Age of Strategic Competition

Author:
Guido Torres
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
As we enter the second year of the Russo-Ukranian war, it is prudent that the foreign policy community examine the impacts of the conflict on other regions, including Latin America. Despite the distance between Latin America and Ukraine, the conflict has disrupted the region and exacerbated the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 disproportionately affected Latin America’s fragile socioeconomic, fiscal, and political situation. For example, Brazil, a major regional economic powerhouse, was one of the worst-struck countries in the region, and the pandemic significantly impacted its economy. The country’s GDP contracted by 4.1% in 2020, and unemployment reached a record high of 14.1% in the first quarter of 2021. The pandemic also impacted Brazil’s fiscal situation, with the country’s debt reaching 90% of GDP. Brazil’s downturn is not an isolated incident, albeit a microcosm of the region. In addition, the instability allowed authoritarian regimes to further consolidate control in places like Nicaragua, Venezuela, and El Salvador. For instance, leaders like El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele capitalized on the chaos of the pandemic and a desperate citizenry to strengthen his power. Furthering the impacts on domestic politics, the confluence of the pandemic and war in Ukraine disrupted global supply chains, agriculture production, and energy resources. Moreover, as tensions between the West and nations such as Russia and China continue to grow, globalization is becoming increasingly divided. This will likely lead to further political turmoil and socioeconomic disparity in Latin America, which has already been compounded by the war and the lackluster COVID-19 recovery efforts. With these repercussions still lingering, a lack of economic and trade development, an intensifying energy crisis, and rampant inflation prevailing in 2023, the region’s outlook remains bleak.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Conflict, Strategic Competition, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Latin America